CNBCfix - Fast Money Review

[CNBCfix Fast Money/Halftime Report Review Archive — Jan. 2024]

Jeffrey Gundlach still calling for recession in 2024

On Wednesday's (1/31) Closing Bell, Judge's star guest was again Jeffrey Gundlach, and Judge asked Jeffrey if he's still calling for a recession.

"Yes I am, in 2024, Yes I am," Jeffrey said, adding that "When I hear the word 'Goldilocks,' I- I get nervous."

Judge told Jeffrey that "I got a text a few moments ago from somebody who's on my Investment Committee saying, Buy bonds, plain and simple." (We're guessing that person was Weiss, but we don't know.)

Joe predicts down market ‘over the next 30 days’

Judge opened Wednesday's (1/31) Halftime Report asking Stephanie Link why she sold Alphabet (apparently GOOGL but perhaps could've been GOOG too). (This writer is long GOOGL.) Everyone should've known the answer (see several headlines on this page below): "'Cause I made a lot of money in it."

Meanwhile, Jason Snipe sold CVX, because, he said, "It's been an underperformer; last year was down 17%."

Joe Terranova predicted that "over the next 30 days, I think the Nasdaq will be, at best, sideways, and at worst, will be down. I think the next 30 days, the market will be going down. That's what's in front of us. We had a similar setup last January."

Joe actually said that bond rate activity overnight should've triggered a big market rotation. "I'm incredibly disappointed in the price action ... you should have seen an intramarket rotation away from megacaps into the small caps. ... The Russell has fallen apart today," Joe said.

Joe explained, "At 2:30 in the morning when I was stealing a treat out of the refrigerator and staring at the screen, it was 3.98 for a 10-year ... there should've been rotation to the- to the other areas of the market that didn't get the love in 2023."

Judge wondered why Joe had this expectation, stating, "I don't know that you would see it" until we hear from Jay Powell.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said "bonds had already moved- yields lower, bonds higher," before the Fed commentary. "We were set up for some kind of pullback," Karen concluded, "and if this is all there is, I'd be surprised."

Back on Halftime, Rob Sechan briefly joined the show remotely to zip through a bunch of stocks he owns, starting with a new buy in VRSK. "It's a capital-light defensive grower," Rob explained.

Judge wondered why Rob bought EBAY, it's "been a loser." Rob said it's a "value company with really low expectations" and it's "still an incredibly profitable business."

Rob bought PNGAY and said it's expected to turn around.

Rob bought more ADBE and said it's "on the forefront of monetizing AI" (snicker). Rob trimmed MCD and said the growth has been coming from price hikes, not volume. He also sold 3 others that were "enormous, enormous winners for us." (Ah, the 2nd person employing that strategy on Wednesday's show.)

Jason Snipe said SYK remains a leader and he continues to like the stock.

Joe said, "We are still in a manufacturing recession," which he thinks is reflected in ROK.

Joe is "pretty excited about Mastercard." Joe suggested the "next target" for LULU may be 435.

Judge still hasn’t told us how many viewers canceled Peacock subscriptions when the clock hit 0:00

Tuesday's (1/30) Halftime Report was basically filler until the tech earnings later in the day. (Neither Judge nor Terranova wanted to talk about pro football and the Baltimore Ravens' curious playoff strategy, but whatever.)

Joe Terranova said "clearly, Copilot" is what we want to hear about from MSFT.

"Is the bar high? Of course the bar is high," Joe said. But Joe said we'd have to hear "something incredibly ominous" to flip the megacap trend.

Josh Brown predicted a "really exciting report."

Jim Lebenthal dialed in to cheer GM's guidance and the stock reaction. Jim predicted GM is "goin' past" its 52-week high of 43. As he does in every appearance for at least a decade, Jim said GM's doing great. And as he hasn't done in every appearance for at least a decade, Jim did not mention a single product that this company makes.

On a big tech earnings day, Judge decided to bring in the panel's biggest tech skeptic, which is like listening to someone tell you for 6 years running that the Kansas City Chiefs are overrated and you're a lot better off rooting for the Tennessee Titans. No thanks.

Joe: Valuations might get richer

Judge asked Joe Terranova at the top of Monday's (1/29) Halftime Report what's "at stake" for the market this week. Joe pointed to MSFT and said its earnings report is "absolutely critical" (snicker) and said megacap expectations are "incredibly high," though Joe said it'd be "very difficult" to reverse the market's positive momentum.

Bill Baruch said if MSFT misses "a little bit," it doesn't mean the rally's over, but a "big whiff somewhere" could stoke fears.

Steve Weiss deadpanned that MSFT is "the most important, uh, report of the week, until Wednesday." Weiss pointed out that TSLA is already bouncing back from last week's disaster, so the market right now is "pretty forgiving."

(Whoa, wait a minute ... TSLA is going to be valued like a "car company" from now on, according to a Halftime Report panelist last week.)

Weiss also mentioned the "new population" of investors that wants to "like what they know" and not get hung up on data points. (Translation: He's frustrated by what he sees as a younger crowd of investors who aren't as pessimistic as he tends to be.)

Joe said that unlike Jonathan Krinsky, he doesn't see the "signs of exhaustion." Joe questioned the constant references to the "historical valuation" of certain tech companies and even said, "We might see valuations grow even richer than where they are now (sic last 5 words redundant)."

Judge listed Bill's top holdings, which sounds a lot like the QQQ, which would be simpler.

Weiss said it's "only natural" to have a "pause" in the market at some point.

Joe said it would be "more than normal" (snicker) for the market to enter a "consolidation range." Bill said that would be "really healthy" but that we could "grind higher if a rotation happens."

Joe is buying really short dated calls in the IWM as a Fed play for this week. Joe said it's "literally (sic not actually literally) insurance on the portfolio" for either a "broadening out" or "disinversion of the yield curve."

Judge knows the point spreads (but apparently can’t share any thoughts on Baltimore Ravens strategy)

On Monday's (1/29) Halftime Report, CNBC gambling reporter Contessa Brewer joined the Post 9 set to report on the Flutter listing on the NYSE.

Brewer said FanDuel got "60,000 bets per minute" during the conference championship games, which is "10,000 more than during the Super Bowl last year."

Brewer said the Super Bowl this year will feature "big market teams" (um, not exactly). Judge said, "Spread's close too, so you're gonna get- you get a lot of money on, on both sides of the ledger."

That was interesting, because we thought Judge, or at least Terranova, might question exactly what the Baltimore Ravens were planning to do on Sunday, given that CBS' Tony Romo announced that the Ravens were hoping to give Patrick Mahomes some hits when he runs with the ball (that worked out well for the Cincinnati Bengals in last year's AFC Championship Game) and other people noticed that despite being the league's top rushing team, the Ravens apparently don't bother with handoffs, preferring their quarterback run the ball from a broken pocket ... on nearly every snap ...

Meanwhile, Judge and Leslie Picker reported that Jim Esposito is exiting GS. "A really good guy," Judge and Leslie agreed. Leslie thinks that for Esposito, it's "time to try something new." Steve Weiss said this departure is among the "normal turn of events" at these Wall Street giants.

Judge said Bernstein is bullish on UBER. (This writer is long UBER.) Joe Terranova said it's a "great note." Judge said "it's up 120% in a year." Joe said, "No one knows how high is high and how low is low."

Bill Baruch mentioned the delivery space for Uber and even said "the moon is the possibility here," which seemed like a bit of hyperbole. Weiss credited Dara for changing the company and culture and said the valuation will get lower. Unlike Bill, Weiss knocked "last mile delivery."

Bill said the Street may be underestimating the runway for ABBV's long-term drug proceeds, and "hedge funds are short this name."

Bill sold SHEL, saying he's a little concerned about "growth outside of the U.S."

Weiss made TSM his Final Trade: "I would buy it; I think it goes higher."

Jenny claims that for any stock with a 57 P.E., the story’s over

Jenny Harrington was on Friday's (1/26) Halftime Report, and honestly, it got to the point we had to put the show on mute and just enjoy CNBC's slick new graphic motif.

Generally, it's good for a page like this when people utter headline-making pronouncements, as Jenny did repeatedly. (There were so many, we can't even make headlines out of all of them.)

But at some point, enough already.

Jenny told Judge that the stock market views rate cuts as "stimulating."

Judge stated, "They will be."

Jenny argued, "OK but they shouldn't be"; rather Jenny thinks they're merely "normalizing."

Judge insisted that's still "stimulative" and that "2% is better than 5%."

Meanwhile, "I'm really cautious going into next week," Jenny offered. Judge asked why. Jenny said "there's a lot of hope and expectation" in stocks.

Then Jenny at one point actually said, "The problem is, that when something trades at 57 times earnings, no matter how great it is, the story and the valuation no longer work."

"That's the argument that people who haven't been in the right stocks continue to make," Judge said. "They justify it by 'the valuations are too rich,' whereas the valuations have been justified in many respects by the guidance and the promise and in even a greater degree, the monetization that's already being realized."

Jenny says TSLA now trades like a car company, META will never have another 2023 again, calls Bryn ‘a little callous’

A discussion about Glen Kacher and TSLA quickly ramped up into a P.E. ratio argument on Friday's (1/26) Halftime Report.

Judge started asking if the "AI 5" is the place to be; he said that a day earlier on Closing Bell, Glen Kacher "coined that AI 5," which is apparently MSFT, NVDA, AMD, TSM and AVGO. (But Kacher also likes META.)

Judge said Kacher knocked TSLA out of the Mag 7; Judge said TSLA was having a "dumpster fire" this year and this week.

Josh Brown said of Kacher, "That dude is really smart," but Brown said the same list could've been made in 1998 with presumably different stocks, as Brown pointed to INTC and CSCO (he left out JDS Uniphase) being not the same stocks or companies really for long afterward.

Bryn Talkington then invoked/provoked a fellow panelist by name. "Jenny obviously runs an equity-income, so, so, so that aside, but I think it's important, valuations and multiples are really a terrible timing mechanism. I think fundamentally, I feel like, 'Well this is just too rich for me,' I get it," Bryn said. Nevertheless, "You could drive a bus through the difference an Intel and an AMD and an Nvidia," Bryn said.

Given a chance a few moments later, Jenny said it's "so cool" that the conversation is transitioning from Mag 7 to AI 5 because "that's leadership rotation," even though Jenny won't tout any of the stocks in either this old or new "leadership."

Jenny then said, "Bryn, you know Bryn, I think you were a little callous in saying valuation's a trap, but actually it's not. Because for the last 3 years, I've been saying Tesla should be priced more like a car company. And there are all these arguments, no it's a tech company, no it's a battery company, you know what, it's behaving like a car company and it's being priced like a car company."

Judge tried to defend Bryn. "I think Bryn to be fair, I think her greater point is don't buy or sell or trade stocks around just because of valuation-" Judge started to say.

"You have to have it both working!" Jenny said. "You could make the argument for valuation on Microsoft and the story. You could make the argument for valuation on Nvidia and the story."

Judge said if you sold NVDA 6 months ago based on valuation, "This is the exact reason why you don't."

Jenny insisted META has been "kicked out" (snicker) of market leadership along with TSLA. Judge said "Meta is working," and Jenny said, "It's not going to be the leadership, at least according to the AI 5."

"How do you know??" questioned Josh Brown.

"Meta just had its best year ever," Judge said.

"It's not going to have that kind of year again in the future," Jenny continued, then saying with a straight face, "You don't sell something just because of the valuation," when she and a few others on the show regularly speak of doing just that. "You have to look at the valuation, otherwise you're gonna sit in a Tesla, ride it down, 50%," Jenny added.

(So, we wondered, how is Jenny's TSLA short doing. Ah. According to CNBC.com disclosures, she's not short TSLA or anything else.)

Bryn responded, "Tesla's one of the best-performing stocks of all time. In the last 5 years, it's up over 800%. So, so, let's just like not pile on Tesla because the past 2 quarters, they're in a transition ... if you don't wanna buy Tesla that's fine, but to say it's like a dumpster fire (those were Judge's words, earlier) and not done well, that's just- that's just not accurate, by the way."

Judge said it's a "dumpster fire recently; so I'm not talking about a 5-year, 20-year chart, you know what I mean?"

Without effectively stating that P.E. is a past-tense effect of market enthusiasm for the stock and that stock prices move based on whether people think the business outlook is getting better or worse, Bryn correctly concluded, "There's no reason Microsoft should trade at a 35 or whatever it is, it's just that the market thinks that's the multiple it should be. A year from now, it could say, it should be at 20. And so that's where I think that valuations can be a trap."

Josh is right. INTC was cheap the whole time.

In another discussion about a tech stock on Friday's (1/26) Halftime, Judge said the market was "obviously mispricing Intel," because it was getting "crushed" on Friday.

During the INTC conversation, which included Kristina Partsinevelos, who might as well be a full-time panelist on the show, Josh Brown started hectoring Jenny Harrington about how well INTC has done against the entire rest of the field in its sector.

Judge said the control room found that INTC is down 29% since Feb. 15, 2021. Josh cut in, "And it was cheap the whole time."

Jenny insisted of INTC, "This is in our Disciplined Growth Strategy, where there is a very, very disciplined process, which is look for companies with a 5% or better free cash flow yield, where there's earnings growth on top of it." It seems to us from listening to Jenny for years on this program, this "very very disciplined process" amounts to looking at a spreadsheet and running an algorithm. (It's so "very very disciplined" that Jenny is long 97 stocks, according to CNBC.com disclosures.)

Jenny sold PANW.

Steve Liesman says ‘March is too early,’ suggests 3 quarter-point cuts

On Friday's (1/26) Halftime Report, Josh Brown predicted the core PCE will give the market a "decent tailwind."

Brown hailed Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro. Brown said Dutta was the "only Wall Street economist" who said a year ago, "no recession in 2023."

Josh said, "Neil thinks they go in March." Brown said the 2-year/10-year spread is "about to uninvert."

Jim Lebenthal cautioned, "The earnings season so far is not good," but he thinks it can get better.

"I don't think the Fed's gonna go in March," said Bryn Talkington, predicting they wait for another meeting. Bryn even brought up Arthur Burns and the "proverbial 1970s."

A couple hours later on Closing Bell, Steve Liesman said he thinks "3 quarter-point cuts is probably the best, uh, bet this year" and that "March is too early."

Jeremy Siegel on Closing Bell said he thinks the Fed next week will be "really reluctant to say they're gonna be lowering rates soon."

Jeremy stated, "I still think we can get 8-10% for the year," which, given January's run, isn't that earth-shattering. But Jeremy mentioned government "threats" (snicker) to Big Tech and suggested "lower P.E. stocks" (snicker) for that scenario.

Jeremy actually said growth stocks could have "perhaps a zero year" while value is up 10-15%. (We've heard that one before. Like, basically, every January.)

Back on Halftime, Josh Brown is "gradually" adding to SNAP. He joked that "I should probably have my head examined for adding to it before the quarter."

Jenny Harrington bragged about URI and trimming it.

Weiss says Fed has ‘really threaded the needle’

The highlight of Thursday's (1/25) Halftime Report had to be the presence of Steve Weiss, who hasn't been on in about a couple weeks (at least we think it's been a couple of weeks).

We figured we'd get a good quote, and we did, as Weiss stated: "The Fed has really threaded the needle."

Weiss wondered if the market has become "almost valuation agnostic" and all about "execution" and "opportunity." He said he's "more worried" about the market now because of "the enthusiasm."

But Judge noted Weiss added to TSM and QQQ, so he's still invested in places of "alleged froth." Weiss said he thinks, just like last year, it's the megacaps that are working. "Taiwan Semi has pricing power," Weiss said, with "limited capacity."

Weiss touted the gains in VRT, which he said is "the cooling systems for data centers." He added to it last week, as well as TDG. He said he likes those names, though "it's hard work finding them."

People on Halftime tend to sell stocks based on their personal gain/loss more than any other factor

Judge opened Thursday's (1/25) Halftime Report with news of Josh Brown selling AMD.

Josh said he bought AMD on Halloween and "I think I was up like 87% in the name." He said NVDA in the same time is up 51%, "and I just don't wanna own both." Brown cited the RSI and stated, "Technically, it's overbought" and said it's had an "average daily return of 1%."

Josh said if AMD surges 20% after earnings, "I feel like I could live with it."

Bill Baruch trimmed NVDA and AMD and said it's like they've already had an "earnings beat" before the earnings.

Judge said the chip sector raises questions about "exuberance" and "froth." (Somehow, Kristina Partsinevelos wasn't on the show, though she was at the Nasdaq for Fast Money.)

Steve Weiss said Josh had a "phenomenal trade" and he applauds the "portfolio management."

On Fast Money, Dan Nathan said NVDA's earnings "could be an accident waiting to happen."

Bryn says TSLA is ‘dead money’ for a couple months; Weiss predicts sub-$100

Judge on Thursday's (1/25) Halftime Report brought in Bryn Talkington, who wasn't part of the day's panel, to talk TSLA.

Bryn said "forget the stock name" (as if that's possible), she listened to the call and it missed on revenue and earnings expectations, which Bryn said caused about a third of the stock slide, and the other 2/3 was the guidance.

Bryn said the stock is down "appropriately" and that "short term, the stock is in no-man's land." She wants to see it base around 180, but it might base in the 160s. Bryn predicted "dead money over the next couple months."

Bryn told Josh Brown that Elon Musk and the TSLA board will have to work something out because they're "inextricably combined" and it's unlikely he'd just go "innovate somewhere else."

Judge said Dan Ives is saying Thursday that he was "dead wrong" on TSLA expectations from Closing Bell a day earlier and that it was "another train wreck conference call."

Bryn agreed it was a bad call and said Elon bluntly admitted that "I don't know" what margins are going to be.

Later, at the end of the A Block, Steve Weiss asked to talk about TSLA; Judge said Weiss had to be "real quick."

Weiss said he's short TSLA and bought more puts. "There is no there. The best days are far behind it," Weiss said, adding it's "highly, highly important" that Musk said for the first time that unless there are tariffs on Chinese carmakers, "they're gonna own the world."

So Musk is really saying "I am really really worried," Weiss said, arguing the stock "should break a hundred."

Weiss also said it's "ludicrous" for Musk to be concerned about an activist; "there's no activist coming in." Weiss also said people were "p---ed off" that Jack Dorsey was running 2 companies; "what about Elon."

Weiss called Elon "an unstable genius running half a dozen companies."

Weiss stopped out on HUM

At the end of the A Block on Thursday's (1/25) Halftime Report, Judge brought up HUM and asked Steve Weiss about getting "stopped out" before Thursday's earnings.

Weiss said he had put on the trade around Jan. 9 and got stopped out last week, and he also sold UNH. "They're just not working," he said, and it'll get "even tougher" in an election year.

Weiss said they make money off their Medical Loss Ratio, which is now 90% and they really need it closer to 80%.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said the MLR made a "huge" difference in HUM profits. Karen said, almost in disbelief, "I don't understand at all" why they weren't better at assessing the MLR and how HUM seemed to botch "the delivery of that bad news."

Josh says PYPL is attempting ‘the stupidest thing I’ve ever seen’

Judge on Thursday's (1/25) Halftime Report couldn't let a day go by without mentioning PYPL, noting the "sharp decline" while the company was holding its "Innovation Day."

Moments later, CNBC's Kate Rooney reported that PYPL is "launching a bunch of new AI products." Josh Brown said, "It's the stupidest thing I've ever seen."

Judge said UBS raised its BRK-B price target from 410 to 435.

Meanwhile, "There is so much money in P.E. they are literally chasing people down the hallway to give it to any business owner who has positive free cash flow," Josh stated. Josh said "they live on the 2" of the "2 and 20."

Bill Baruch thinks WDC has "higher to go." Josh suggested Bill "relax" during his highly detailed Final Trade of SCCO. #soundbites,please "This isn't beginning trades," Judge cracked.

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said there was "a lot to like" in the URI earnings.

Karen likens Tesla-vs.-Detroit to action movies, says TSLA should ramp up pricing pressure

Karen Finerman on Wednesday's (1/24) Fast Money bluntly stated that TSLA should be cutting prices and "should just be putting as much pressure as they possibly can on the GMs and Fords."

Karen explained, "My husband and I watch one of those, you know, action movies, they always leave the villain almost dead, but they kick the gun to the side, right. ... You have to kill him again."

Steve Grasso countered, "If they do step on the throat, then they give up the margins."

Later in the show, on an unrelated topic, Tim Seymour questioned, "Do we have to own small caps? I mean, small caps have underperformed for a decade." Steve Grasso said buying small caps is "a bet on interest rates." Karen Finerman likes the small cap space, stating, "the valuation differential is so big now."

Judge didn’t say a word about how many people canceled Peacock after the playoff game

Brian Belski dialed in to Wednesday's (1/24) Halftime Report to cheer NFLX, saying his shop's analyst raised his target to 638.

Belski said adding wrestling is the "real real deal."

That prompted Judge to say, "By the way, uh, the NFL game on Peacock was the single biggest subscriber acquisition moment ever measured by a company called Antenna."

Grandpa Rob Sechan said NFLX and related names are "very capital intensive" and can have "misses, you know, with programming." Belski pointed to consolidation; "I think a year from now we're not gonna have many streaming companies." He said NFLX was "super smart" in building the content library before others did, if they've even tried.

Judge said he'd "shout out the home team again, um, 2.8 million sign-ups, that NFL game got on Peacock." (Obviously CNBC on-air talent must've been nudged to "shout out the home team," because Julia Boorstin mentioned the same numbers on Fast Money.)

Joe Terranova said momentum in FCX is in a "yellow-light type of territory."

Kari Firestone said TMO is a "great franchise" but is "really a '25 story."

Judge said "there's a lot of frustration" in the airline industry about Boeing's issues.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman noted how well NFLX is doing and said the valuation is "not so crazy."

Joe: 2022-24 is like 1994-96

Shortly into Wednesday's (1/24) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova stated, "Here we are, January 24th, and I think everyone's finally coming around to the premise uh that the megacaps are not going away in any regard."

But Joe allowed, "There still is a degree of skepticism."

Countering that, Joe said there's a "template" in which the Fed is "no longer adversarial" and we have "innovation from technology"; as a result, Joe thinks that 2022-24 "correlates so incredibly well" with 1994-96.

Judge said "sure," but we know how it ended "when the music stopped" and got the "record scratched."

Joe said if you're staying out of the market now out of fears of another March 2000, "you have reinvestment risk beyond what you could've possibly imagined." And Joe pointed out that March 2000 took 4 years to occur after 1996.

Stephanie Link bought more AMZN and cited the multiple (interesting when AMZN buyers are citing multiple). Kari Firestone said AMZN could have a big year. Kari mentioned "overstaffed" and "overspending," which are magic words for megacap tech stocks.

Rob Sechan said he got out of AMZN after he thought it pulled forward a lot of gains during the pandemic. Rob said META and Alphabet are the cheapest plays in mega tech.

Judge said MSFT is "already" monetizing AI; it's not a "pipe dream." Rob said MSFT is "the single largest position at NewEdge across all our portfolios, although it's a neutral, kind of remarkable, but it is."

Kari Firestone said MSFT "could go to 500."

Judge said there seems to be "less riding" on the TSLA earnings Wednesday, and Judge wondered why no one on the panel is interested in that stock.

"All of us are probably interested," offered Kari, but Stephanie said no, citing "valuation" (snicker) and "cold stock." Stephanie also said Elon Musk is "volatile." Joe said it was liquidated from the JOET last October because revenue growth "imploded."

Joe gets into scrapes while parsing Judge’s ‘exuberance’ question, faulting Jim’s yield curve timeline

Apparently calling into question the stock market's creep upward to new highs this week, Judge opened Tuesday's (1/23) Halftime Report asking Shannon Saccocia whether there's "too much exuberance."

Shannon said there's a "continuation" in the market and somehow took Judge's question into the conclusion that there's "almost a little bit of a risk-off trade."

Joe Terranova said he's "having difficulty" with Judge's question, stating that the answer to Judge's question is contingent on "what specific market we're talking about."

Judge said, "We're talkin' about the stock market."

Joe insisted we have "complete bifurcation in terms of performance." Joe said there's "exuberance" about monetary policy, but not in the stock market.

"I do not think we're in an exuberant phase," said Jim Lebenthal, though he doesn't want to "get ahead of my skis and be table-pounding."

Jim said the rest of Ed Yardeni's note about possible exuberance that Judge cited concluded that "we've probably got more room to go." Judge pointed out that Jim's own forecast is for a 5% gain for the rest of the year. Jim said it's because he's "respectful" of certain high multiples such as MSFT's, but he thinks the big part of the market "outside of technology" has room to run.

Judge showed a clip of Cheryl Young saying a day ago on Closing Bell that the market is "priced for perfection." Joe said Cheryl has been "incredibly accurate."

Judge said "money's flowing out of financials." Shannon said people are looking to the 2nd half of the year for that sector to work.

Joe declared, "Let's make this distinction once again: The predominant factor in the market is in non-discretionary algorithmic buying."

Jim and Joe tangled over whether the "algos" are correctly sensing that the yield curve will "disinvert sometime soon." Joe said it will disinvert but no one knows when that will happen and he doesn't want to be guessing when that will happen. Jim said he believes it's "imminent," so he's positioning for it.

Any time Jim debates someone over what a historical P.E. ratio was, we’re betting on Jim

Judge on Tuesday's (1/23) Halftime Report hectored Jim Lebenthal for some reason about buying NVDA last year with an "already elevated" multiple.

Jim said he bought after it had "come down," which is correct. Judge scoffed, "Don't act like it was 50, 50%, come on."

Jim said it "literally" was, pointing to the beginning of 2023 at 60 times.

"The beginning of LAST. YEAR? We're talking about the beginning of LAST. YEAR? Oh my God," Judge scoffed, in a bit of overacting that wouldn't have beaten out Ryan Gosling for an Oscar nomination. We're not sure how Judge has suddenly forgotten that NVDA's multiple shrank last year after the blowout earnings.

Judge said Grandpa Marko Kolanovic is still "defensive" with an underweight in equities and credit and overweight in cash and commodities.

Jim said it's this simple, there's a "grudging lack of acceptance that inflation is coming down."

Joe Terranova said a strong economy doesn't necessarily mean inflation rebounds. Joe said "the momentum is in place" for 5,100 and said there's a "real battle" between humans and the (yes) "non-discretionary algorithmic buying."

Joe's "not particularly excited" about UAL and the airlines. He'd like to see "follow through" in coming days because the charts aren't good.

Jim owns DAL, which he says is "ridiculously cheap." He says he's "terribly frustrated" but "demand is hanging in there" and labor costs are in the rear-view mirror and the Middle East is being factored in. Judge and Joe hectored Jim over airline charts and shrugged that Jim's argument about airlines having better balance sheets doesn't matter to investors.

In a preview of semis, Jim said the bear case is that EVs, which are heavy into semis, aren't as popular as thought. He still finds NXPI a "bargain."

Joe once again was talking up DHI, stating he expects builders will "continue to correct" but he sees a boost from mortgage relief.

Jim said there's no "pizazz" in MMM and it's a "no touch" for him.

Steve Grasso: Fed inclined to cut early to avoid political overtones

On Monday's (1/22) Fast Money, Steve Grasso opined on the Federal Reserve operating in an election year.

"I think you have to front-load these cuts ... you have to stay away from looking political," Grasso said.

"Hmmmmm," Mel said.

Karen Finerman said she doesn't know why the Fed needs to cut now. "Why give it away for free," Karen wondered, adding, "The error of cutting too soon is far greater than the benefit of cutting a little bit early or when people expect." (At first we thought Karen misspoke. But after analyzing this comment, we think it's correct as stated. She's saying that if the cut is justified around March, it's not a big benefit to do it, but if it's not justified, then it's a problem.)

"Why the market goes up every day, I don't really know," Karen admitted.

Karen called the risk/reward in M "pretty compelling." Guy Adami agreed.

An amateur won The American Express; Judge didn’t mention it even though he was there

Quite frankly, Monday's (1/22) Halftime Report was a sleepy program.

So, for headliners, we'll start with Judge reporting that Ed Yardeni is suggesting we might be entering an "exuberant melt-up phase."

Anastasia Amoroso said stocks tend to go up in election years 85% of the time. However, Anastasia said that so far, it's the same "playbook" of 2023. Anastasia said "financials did not deliver on earnings," and the start of the season is "weak," so she thinks the rally could "run out."

Jim Lebenthal noted that "the small caps have not participated year to date. So yes you've got a new high, but it's the same Mag 7 that's leading the way."

Joe Terranova said "the backup in yields" drove money into megacap tech.

Jason Snipe noted semiconductors are up 7% this year. Jason thinks there's still "upside momentum" in NVDA and semis. Joe said the "setup for semis this week" can be a little "complicated."

Judge mentioned AAPL getting 3 downgrades in 8 days. Jason noted MSFT overtaking AAPL in market cap. Jim said he's "not a big believer" in AAPL having a big catalyst, including the goggles that "some people" (e.g., Josh Brown) are touting. But Jim said he thinks algos will "pile on" to AAPL when the yield curve "uninverts."

Joe talked about why he "pared back" UBER at the end of 2023 in an apparent explanation as to why he's not yet paring back CRWD. (This writer is long UBER.)

Jim claimed GM is "still ridiculously cheap." Jim will be claiming a year from now and 2 years from now and 3 years from now that GM is "still ridiculously cheap." Jim said TMO could benefit from improved sentiment in health care.

Kristina Partsinevelos reported that Morgan Stanley actually is making WDC its top chip pick over NVDA.

Jason said he sees "continued upside" with NFLX's subscriber base but he wonders if the effect of the Hollywood strikes will be felt on new content. Karen Finerman on Fast Money said she would "sell upside calls" against NFLX.

Joe said a technical correction in DHI is possible. "Fundamentally, I'm staying in these names," Joe said.

Anastasia said trucking is starting to see some "green shoots" and she likes the sector.

Jim said Warren Buffett's endorsement of changes at C is fine with him.

Joe's Final Trade was C, which Joe said is "breaking out."

Karen: Rally seemed ‘melt-upy’

Friday's (1/19) record-breaking stock market rally didn't impress some of the panelists on Fast Money.

Grandpa Guy Adami stated, "People are clearly pricing in the best-case scenario known to mankind in terms of the stock market rally, and even the most ardent bulls I think have to be concerned when they see days like today."

Bonawyn Eison said he thinks "the very best Goldilocks situation has been priced in."

Courtney Garcia offered, "I do think markets did get ahead of themselves with those 6 cuts for next year" and suggested there's "euphoria" brewing in technology.

Even host Missy Lee declared, "I mean, it's not the greatest set-up going into earnings season to have the markets at a record high."

Karen Finerman said options expiration took place on Friday morning, so as for the market's gains, "I'm not really sure ... It did seem very melt-upy. ... I don't know what to do here."

Panelists not so sure that selling META is the right move

Judge on Friday (1/19) turned up at his latest West Coast trip, The American Express golf tournament (that's correct, as far as we can tell, the tournament is simply called The American Express), in California.

It looked like a fun event, but not necessarily as much fun as Josh Brown's Future-Proof conference at Huntington Beach.

Meanwhile, as Judge conducted business with others remotely in their New York-area homes, including Joe Terranova in his pandemic-era office space, it sounded like not everyone's crazy about cuts.

Stephanie Link stated, "I was out on the road this past week. There are some people that were thinking zero cuts."

Joe said, "The economy is in a much stronger position than many people, myself included, expected," and he "can't remember a time" where the financial services sector is anticipating a rate cut and actually saying "we don't want it."

Judge stated, "I do feel like the market does want rate cuts; maybe it doesn't need the 6 or the 7 that it once thought it might."

Meanwhile, Stephanie Link sold META. Stephanie mentioned how much it's up in the past year and what the multiple is.

"I made a lot of money. I bought it when everyone wanted to sell it," Link said, none of which have anything to do with where the stock is going.

Judge wondered, "What if it's just getting started."

Sarat Sethi said META still has "tailwinds" and doesn't have the "monopoly issue that all the others do."

Joe bluntly stated, "Excluding Tesla ... selling any of the megacaps in the month of January is something I really don't ever want to do again."

Link said she put more money into Amazon.

Shannon Saccocia argued "this year needs to be margin recapture."

In California, Judge asked AmEx CEO and golf tournament host Stephen Squeri if the Fed has done a good job. "I think they have," Squeri said, at least for "the last 6 to 9 months."

"I'm in the soft-landing camp," Squeri said.

Basketball star/exec Danny Ainge said the college landscape of players being compensated is "complicated." Ainge said he does "a little bit" of investing and said he might look at AXP shares after Squeri's appearance.

Sarat said he bought SLB, and with oil at current prices, "there's only upside here." Joe acknowledged "we" are long SLB (that means, from what we can tell from the website, that SLB is in the JOET; Joe apparently doesn't own it personally) but said being overweight energy "just doesn't seem to be working." (Then why is SLB in a "momentum" ETF?)

Karen says Siri is ‘hard of hearing’

Mostly devoid of stuff to talk about, both the Halftime Report and Fast Money on Thursday (1/18) were forced to spend the A Block discussing the Magnificent 7 (despite no news in that subsector).

Bill Baruch opened Halftime, guest hosted by Courtney Reagan, making the same argument that Jim Lebenthal always does, that "Nvidia especially is not an expensive stock right now."

Josh Brown talked about the importance of TSM and noted the strength of AI but conceded, "These stocks have already been huge winners; they're becoming very popular," they're still cyclical and "we might be getting a little bit carried away." Brown suggested Thursday might not be the day to buy NVDA or AMD and predicted a "shake-out" that may not happen until the end of earnings season.

Liz Young stated, "I still don't think that Big Tech is going to be the leader like it was last year. Extremes don't tend to repeat themselves." (And we doubt anyone actually believed Liz's statement, but nobody said anything.)

Bill said if AAPL "gets out above 200," it'll break out and lead the market. Josh said AAPL has had "2 years worth of stock performance out of this thing in like the last 9 months" and it would make "more sense" if it spent time "consolidating below 200."

On Fast Money, a notable AAPL app was under fire. "Siri is one of the worst products ever," said CNBC superfox Karen Finerman. "I think he's hard of hearing, which is a really, really big problem."

Josh says ‘ass’

On Thursday's (1/18) Halftime Report, CNBC's Kate Rooney recapped Mizuho's case against PYPL.

Kari Firestone said she'd been "more than patient" with the stock before finally selling it recently, and now it's got more competition and losing market share and "we have other opportunities."

Josh Brown, who's long PYPL and has been making the case that it's simply oversold, asked Kari why PYPL was up Thursday in the wake of the downgrade.

Kari chuckled, "I don't know; did you buy a lot?"

Bill Baruch suggested it looks like "capitulation" in PYPL and he wouldn't be surprised to see it up maybe 3-5% next week, though it's not on his "radar" and he doesn't see a whole lot of upside.

Kari suggested there could be short covering in PYPL.

Josh suggested 56 as a "pretty good risk management area" for PYPL, claiming "there were no sellers left" at that level. Brown said 3-year downtrends in the Nasdaq 100 are rare but that the company is "wildly profitable."

But Josh concluded, "Everybody knows that Apple is kicking their ass in the shopping cart."

Guest host Courtney Reagan revealed, "I used Apple Pay for the first time like 3 months ago. It was e mbarrassing. Totally embarrassing."

Josh: It would be nice to hear an actual strategy from Nelson Peltz

Thursday's (1/18) Halftime Report included a fresh go-round on DIS in the wake of the latest Nelson Peltz news.

Bill Baruch shrugged that DIS is "not even on my radar" and he doesn't see any reason to buy "until something really changes."

Kari Firestone said Bob Iger was a "master" when he built DIS into what it is; "Unfortunately the media and entertainment world has changed so much that that combi- group of companies no longer work together," Kari said.

Josh Brown said there are "too many players" in streaming and "Netflix won already ... it's the only profitable streaming service, period." But he said DIS is more than streaming, so comparing DIS with NFLX is "a little bit apples and oranges."

Josh said "every day" that Disney doesn't do anything with ABC and ESPN, they are "worth less." He said DIS has a "good point" about Peltz; "It would be nice if we heard more from Nelson Peltz on what the actual strategy is, other than, 'Just give me a board seat.'"

‘Knife fights over lounge chairs’ (a/k/a when 8 means 4)

Josh Brown on Thursday's (1/18) Halftime Report said the "wealth effect" explains why consumers are spending money with rates so high. Josh said most spending is by the wealthy, and housing values have "stopped going down" and 401(k)s are at "all-time record highs for most normal people with a normal allocation." He said that when you've got a lot of money in the bank, look at "how much cash your cash is throwing off."

Brown claimed some friends of his actually reported "knife fights over lounge chairs" in Aruba.

Late into Halftime, Josh offered a "Trade School" on a group of slumping stocks he called "The Hateful Eight" of the Nasdaq, which sounded a bit like the old "Dogs of the Dow." Instead of 8 names, however, the screen text only showed 4 stocks; Brown's list included SIRI, PYPL, MRNA, ILMN.

Josh questioned why JBLU would have wanted to buy Spirit. "It didn't make any sense," agreed Kari Firestone.

Bill Baruch bought LDOS, "a great place to be," and URI. He sold SLB.

Liz Young, who in general offers no trades of any kind, was asked to provide a contrarian trade and suggested the DBB. But she urged, "Keep it tiny." Bill Baruch's contrarian trade iS SPPP.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said HUM's drop "sort of intrigues me," though she'll invoke the "3-day rule" before buying.

Karen was shaking her head about COIN's valuation, stating, "I don't get it."

Jenny actually would be ‘thrilled’ if stocks end the year flat

Rob Sechan got to bat leadoff on Wednesday's (1/17) Halftime Report, another episode that included nothing on pro football, stating people came into 2024 "expecting the best," and "markets are pushing back against that narrative," and there's a "wide range of outcomes" that are possible for stocks.

(Well, usually in mid-January, there are still probably a "wide range of outcomes" for any year.)

Rob said Tom Lee's 5,200 would be "nirvana" or "near perfection." But Rob thinks we'll be "challenged throughout the year."

Jim Lebenthal stated, "I'm not waking up in the middle of the night worrying about the markets," but he acknowledged this is a "heavy tape," which he chalked up to the market weighing how we might get no rate cut in March, though we're "very likely to get one in May."

Judge aired the clip of Jamie Dimon on Squawk Box stressing, of course, caution. Jenny Harrington said she thinks there's too much optimism and the market's "offsides," though she's not expecting a "big crash or a huge retraction." Jenny said if we get a "perfect scenario," the S&P would get to ... 4,900.

In a startling revelation of low expectations, Jenny even said, "I would be thrilled if we end this year flat, after a plus-26% year."

Joe Terranova said the risk to markets is with monetary policy, "that they do stay too long." Joe said we're seeing that "capital is frozen" because we're "challenged by a 10-year Treasury above 10(sic meant 4)(snicker)%." (Judge didn't correct.)

Judge turned to P.E. ratios to suggest the market might be overvalued and aired his clip from Closing Bell a day ago in which Valuation Guru Aswath said stocks are in a "dangerous place." Rob said Aswath is right in the short term, that it's a "very frothy" market.

Judge and Jim somehow tangled over whether stocks are too expensive as Jim parsed which of the FANGMA is overpriced (not all of it, he practically went through it stock by stock) and declared that small caps are definitely not and also bond rates and P.E. ratios were higher in the '90s. Jenny said small caps are always cheap compared with the S&P but "what matters" is whether they're cheap compared with historical levels and right now "they're stupidly cheap." Joe said the conversation was "kinda all over the place."

Jim said there's "a lot" of other stuff affecting markets. "The Middle East is this/close, this close to blowin' up." Then Judge and Jim and Joe discussed the yield curve. Joe touted IBKR and the "fantastic job" on 72% pretax margins and hung a $100 on the stock.

Jenny’s been averaging down on JBLU

Jenny Harrington on Wednesday's (1/17) Halftime Report revealed that her shop bought JBLU at $14 before the Spirit deal was announced, expecting $2 in earnings and a 10 multiple.

Jenny admitted it's been a "huge miss for us."

Judge wondered why she's still holding it. Jenny said it's because the whole way down, her shop thinks it's been a buy. Jenny admitted she's "not sure" they've had a "sound" investment thesis on this stock. Jenny compared it with owning INTC, where they "stuck it out." Joe Terranova said he can tell that Jenny doesn't think JBLU is INTC.

Judge noted the Mizuho price target cut of BABA and the stock's 52-week low. Rob Sechan owns it, citing the "contrarian play" of China. (Even so, BABA wasn't his contrarian play later on, see below.) "There's a turnaround story here," Rob said.

Joe took viewers through his re-acquisition of MS in Q4 after getting shaken out in October; he said he's "disappointed in myself" for rebuying the stock based on momentum, given the "earnings repoint (sic)."

Judge asked Jenny why she keeps holding KSS. Jenny said all retailers are different and it's "super committed" to an 8% yield, though she is concerned about a "cap on late fees."

Judge is still forcing panelists to cough up "contrarian" trades; Rob Sechan offered the IBB. Judge rattled off other holdings of Rob; Rob said, "You have incredible visibility into what we're doing there." Judge said, "We sort of demand transparency on this program." Jim Lebenthal said he'd rather pick individual stocks than go with the index. Rob said he agrees but is suggesting IBB "for the viewers."

Joe said he agrees with Goldman's upgrade of MNST, it's "clearly in the sweet spot."

Jenny is "completely unfazed" by the 5% dip in XPO. (At least Judge didn't ask her why she still owns that one.)

Jim was heard on open mike during cut to commercial about being called "Jimmy."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said she's long NFLX though she has to "wrestle" with it because of the ... you guessed it ... valuation. "It's hard to argue that it's super-cheap." Nevertheless, Karen said, "I am really warming a lot to the idea of dominating a business is worth a big premium."

Steve Grasso noted other streamers may not be dropping out but are "spending less on content." Steve said NFLX has 23 million monthly active users on the ad tier, up from 15 million in November and 5 million last May.

Judge doesn’t say a word about pro football

Honestly, sometimes we think that if Judge were hosting the Halftime Report in December 1972, he wouldn't even mention The Immaculate Reception.

We've been eager to hear some football picks/analysis from the Halftime Report crew. Even Weiss would make Super Bowl picks. Judge supposedly is a Washington Commanders fan; we haven't heard a word about that team. Guy Adami we think is a longtime Giants fan; Terranova is an Islanders fan (that's hockey) but likes either the Jets or Giants; Cramer (who curiously has stopped appearing on Halftime) is obviously an Eagles fan; Sechan likes the Steelers. CNBC's sensational longtime voice Jim Birdsall is a Chiefs fan, obviously has had a lot to cheer in recent years. We think Karen Finerman may be a Rams fan, but we honestly don't know.

Nevertheless, Judge hasn't said a word about the NFL playoffs. And hasn't even mentioned the Peacock-only playoff situation, of which we've heard dueling arguments. (It's interesting. It's basically an outrage. But a lot of people claiming outrage also produce material behind paywalls.) (This site has zero paywalls.)

Seems like, as far as Judge is concerned, the NFL Playoffs are a tree falling in a forest.

Pete Najarian once played for a team that has a big game this weekend, but Pete exited the show with his brother in 2022, so we can't talk about what Pete might think about the playoffs, and frankly can't talk about Pete at all, so you'll have to pretend this paragraph never existed.

Stephanie: ‘No way’ there’s a March cut

Judge opened Tuesday's (1/16) Halftime Report suggesting to Joe Terranova it's "Waller giveth, Waller taketh away" (snicker).

Joe said the debate over a March rate cut will "hang over the market" and lead to "very choppy price action."

Stephanie Link said that Waller said we're "almost as good as it gets." That's a famous movie from 1997. Stephanie asserted, "I do not think the Fed is going in March. No way."

Jim Lebenthal, who had a quiet show, acknowledged we had a "heavy market" on Tuesday. Jim said "geopolitics are a mess."

Joe said that for as long as he's been in the business, the "early days of January" have been "very critical in providing insight where sentiment is."

Stephanie, Josh tangle over results from Morgan Stanley wealth management

Stephanie Link on Tuesday's (1/16) Halftime Report said a lot of banks just "met" expectations rather than beating them.

Stephanie made the case for MS; she said she "cannot believe" it was down 4%. Stephanie said MS wealth management fees were "actually up."

Josh Brown, on the show remotely (photo above is from a 2022 show in Englewood Cliffs), cut in to ask if wealth management was "up" or "flat."

"They beat," Stephanie enunciated. "They actually did beat that number."

"They beat it, but it was flat year over year, right?" Brown said.

"A beat is a beat. It doesn't matter. People were expecting it to be down," Stephanie said.

"No, I disagree. I disagree. ... Wealth management is 50% of the business now and not growing," Brown said. "A beat is not a beat."

Josh argued that Goldman Sachs wealth management was up 23% year over year, "and Morgan Stanley's was flat."

"It's a much smaller base," Stephanie shrugged about Goldman.

Judge said, "I feel like we're talkin' past each other rather than- rather than, like, like a lot of value add-on."

Joe Terranova said MS shares were down because wealth management pretax margin was not 30%, but 24%. "Ted Pick didn't give anyone any degree of confidence that it was quickly gonna return to 30%," Joe said.

Judge got Jim Lebenthal to admit C is his bank "of choice" (snicker). Jim argued, "The tone on Citigroup has changed."

Bertha actually referred to ‘Taylor Smith’ during CNBC News Update

Judge on Tuesday's (1/16) Halftime Report said Barron's decided to go "super provocative (snicker) this week" by building their own "better" Magnificent 7, which means adding BRK.B, V and UNH and subtracting AAPL, TSLA and META.

Josh Brown said "Barron's is writing for an older, more value-oriented audience, so it totally makes sense for them to pull out Tesla and put in United Health."

Josh said these "contrived" groups of stocks are more about "journalistic interest" than portfolio management.

Joe Terranova said AAPL is the 1 name from the Magnificent 7 that's below where it was last July during the Nasdaq breakout.

Judge and the panel bounced around from the banks to HD vs. LOW (always a coin flip, Zzzzzz) and AAPL vs. MSFT. Regarding the latter, Josh Brown said, "Microsoft is probably in the driver's seat for this year."

Joe brought up SNPS; Joe for some reason likes to note how long certain stocks have been in the JOET. If it's a momentum-trading vehicle, who cares if a stock has been in it for 3 years?

Judge asked Josh about Mizuho's downgrade of PYPL. Josh credited Dan Dolev of Mizuho as "among the finest" of fintech analysts and conceded the "news" of this rating is that Dolev may be "giving up" on the idea of PYPL being overly discounted. Josh didn't try to predict where PYPL is going but said it is priced for "zero growth."

Meanwhile, Josh asserted that the cybersecurity sector is a "guaranteed" bull market. Josh trumpeted the "bananas" charts of CHKP, PANW and CYBR.

Mark Fisher joined the crew remotely and immediately asked if Josh was on Tuesday's show. Judge asked Fish about the price of nat gas; Fish went on to explain the difference between futures expectations and the current spot price and we couldn't really determine his call, if any, but he did say, "The risk/reward to being short February natural gas is just not there." (Honestly, we don't know anyone aside from maybe a futures trader or two who wants to trade natural gas.)

Fish said the way to trade oil is to trade the "products" and not the oil itself. Joe touted MPC, and possibly VLO. Josh Brown touted the IEO.

Jenny says it’d be ‘stupid’ to sell the Mag 7 with capital gains

In her most interesting comment of the day on Friday's (1/12) Halftime Report, on a day in which she had many comments, Jenny Harrington said of the Mag 7, "It's probably stupid to sell them if you have huge capital gains."

Now, think about that for a moment.

We think that's a quiet endorsement of the Mag 7. Jenny appears to be saying, this subsector is not going to crash.

But at some point, if you're going to realize gains from this trade, don't you have to sell them?

Isn't January a common time to take those gains?

Is Jenny suggesting you wait until the capital gains have shrunk to break-even?

Or is she indicating these stocks are OK for 2024 and that the real goal is to beat the Tax Man, which means waiting to sell until next year, or never at all.

What would be the point of holding on to beat the Tax Man if, as Jenny claims (see below), the Mag 7 "could, kinda plateau" and it's "impossible" for her to make the case for the Mag 7 outperforming the market by the same "magnitude," and there are better stocks to buy? Wouldn't you make more money by selling the Mag 7 and buying Jenny's other picks?

Frank was the host, but Joe was asking the great questions (a/k/a Judge is off, doesn’t have to defend playoff game being on Peacock-only)

On Friday's (1/12) Halftime Report, it seemed like Jenny Harrington couldn't wait to talk about DOCU.

Jenny said she bought the stock a few months ago at $42. (It was actually late September.) Given what it did in December alone, it maybe should've been somewhere on the Call of the Year list (see below), except 1) the stock was basically flat for 2 months after Jenny bought it and 2) a lot of other stocks also had big Decembers and 3) we don't think Jenny mentioned it after making the case for it last September, until now.

But still an excellent purchase.

On Friday, Jenny reiterated all the "unbelievable" (she said it at least 2-3 times) great things about the company that prompted her to buy; it wasn't the prospect of a buyout, but "of course," private equity would be interested in a company as "unbelievable" as this one.

Joe Terranova asked Jenny "what type of premium" does she think DOCU would be acquired at. This was the best question of the day, as it suggests an end game for selling the shares. Jenny admitted she doesn't know. With the stock now at $64, Jenny stated, "Wow, it's already exceeded what our- we thought our 1-year price target would be, so dramatically," which doesn't help someone thinking about buying the shares now.

Actually, so far, Jenny's up around 50%. Back in September, Jenny said the stock wouldn't have 900% returns but "maybe there's a 100%, 150% return." Based on that metric, she's evidently counting on at least another $20.

Jim indicates that neither C nor anyone else should really be in the muni business

Joe Terranova started off Friday's Halftime Report talking about how "There's JPMorgan and then there's the rest of the banks" (Zzzzzz).

Joe owns JPM personally, and he said the JOET has been underweight financials for a year.

Guest host Frank Holland referred to Jim Lebenthal as a "Citigroup believer" (snicker).

Frank told Jim that Hugh Son says C is taking a "litany of charges." Jim shrugged that those charges are "frankly expected."

Jim then mentioned the "40% discount to tangible book value (sigh)." Jim said if C traded at tangible book value, it would see "30% share appreciation from here, maybe 40%." (So all it's got to do is trade at tangible book.)

Jim said C is a "different story" than JPM and that Jane Fraser is the first person to take a "scalpel" or even "machete" to right-size C.

In the show's 2nd-best question of the day (see DOCU/Jenny Harrington), Joe Terranova asked Jim if C buyers are buying for the "turnaround story," which is maybe a 2024 thing, or because the turnaround is "sustainable" and the bank could become like JPM.

"I do think it's sustainable," Jim said, citing the cuts being made; that's an interesting goal, Let's be like JPMorgan by cutting a bunch of businesses. Jim again cited "tangible book value."

Joe questioned why C is shutting its muni and distressed-debt businesses while JPM is in those sectors. Jim said he knows from the family business that the muni business "has been tough for decades."

Jenny names a stock that she claims will have ‘leadership’ in 2024

Once she got going, she really never stopped.

Jenny Harrington up to the 7-minute mark of Friday's (1/12) Halftime Report had been "uncharacteristically quiet," according to guest host Frank Holland, who apparently wanted to hear Jenny's speeches on several segments of the U.S. financial markets.

Frank first asked Jenny about the "noisy start to earnings season," including from BAC. Jenny explained that consumers are "bifurcated." Jenny then spoke about what earnings season means to her and said she doubts we're going to get "12%" earnings growth this year. (Which is another way of saying "It's going to be all low-P.E. value stocks from here on.")

Frank said tech is the best-performing sector this week. Jim Lebenthal, often allied with Jenny on downplaying tech, sought to throw cold water on the tech trade, stating, "It's not the Magnificent 7 as a monolith moving forward," which is at odds with Joe Terranova's insistence that the Mag 7 is still outperforming. In fact, Joe even said Friday, "We're all looking for a broadening out of the market, but you have to acknowledge it has not happened so far year to date (sic last 3 words redundant)."

Jim said the last he looked, NVDA was down, "and I didn't think that was allowed." Jim went on to predict, "Better returns are likely to come outside of technology." Hmmmmm. "Likely." Wonder how that's determined.

Jenny said it's "impossible" (sic) (snicker) for her to "make any case" that megacap tech would maintain the same "magnitude" of leadership performance.

Jenny then referred to Steve Weiss' comment to her a week ago (Jan. 5) in which Weiss said MSFT "should be at the market or better" (that's basically what he said, though not the exact quote, see below), while Jenny thinks it "could, kinda, plateau." Jenny said it's "not likely that they're going to be up 62% again this year like they were last year."

Jenny suggested APTV instead and said "It's hard for me to imagine that that doesn't have performance leadership in the coming year."

In a Fed discussion involving Steve Liesman, Joe Terranova pointed to the 2-year yield and stated, "this is the beginning stage of the disinversion for a 2- vs. a 10-year." Joe said he's "skeptical and suspicious of a March cut," the market's probability has him thinking it's "actually gonna happen."

Jim said the market has an "81%" probability on a March cut and if the Fed is not going to do a March cut, "they gotta put this out there right now." Steve Liesman said, "I don't think they have to," explaining "the Fed is really, really tight here relative to the underlying inflation rate."

Jenny actually touts K-1s

Jenny Harrington on Friday's (1/12) Halftime Report gave a speech about energy and oil and decreed, "Oil is range-bound."

What was startling was Jenny advocating K-1s; "by the way, I think that's the best way to go." Oh yes, K-1s are great fun when doing your taxes.

Jenny gushed about buying UBER at $22 in 2022. (That doesn't help anyone thinking about buying it now.) (This writer is long UBER.) She's trimmed it 3 times, which she called "responsible" (others would call it "leaving money on the table" because it's at an all-time high now).

Jenny again predicted there's only "10% upside" in UBER through 2024. Joe Terranova said he's still "absolutely" bullish on UBER and sees it "well into the $70s." Joe also made the "industrial" case for the stock, as he has previously (when he was demanding Weiss acknowledge it on national television).

In what sounded a little bit like, quite frankly, denial, given how airlines have traded in the last 6 months, Jim Lebenthal called DAL's stumble "absolutely a head fake." He mentioned "6 times earnings" (sigh), which he said "traditionally" should be 8 times.

Joe said REGN is a "classic example" of how momentum investing "actually does work."

Bryn declares ‘P.E. is a terrible metric for making trades’

As P.E. ratios on the Halftime Report begin to sound more and more like The Emperor Has No Clothes, Bryn Talkington stoked the fire on Thursday (1/11).

Guest host Frank Holland said technology stocks since 1999 trade at an average of 17.7 forward P.E. ratio, but now it's at "24 and a half" (the graphic said 25.4).

Bryn said that number is a "small lens" for evaluating the sector, but, "I've said this so many times: P.E. is a terrible metric for making trades."

Ouch.

We're waiting to hear the counterargument.

Nevertheless, most panelists on this show cite this terrible metric as the most important factor on whether they like a stock.

Moments later, after an NVDA discussion, Josh Brown stated, "We all agree on valuation. (Um, is Josh sure about that?) I think the key is to not be a slave to valuation."

Josh noted that for NFLX from March 2009 to January 2020, the "average P.E. on Netflix was 165 times." (Translation: Sometimes stocks with "high" P.E. ratios go higher; sometimes they don't.)

Josh continued, "It's not that valuation doesn't matter. It's just that, it doesn't give you any idea of what a stock could do when it's growing and innovating in the way that an Nvidia or a Netflix could."

Well, that's kind of a clumsy way to put it. He could've said that valuation matters as a gauge of the market's excitement for the business, but not as a purported indicator for where the stock is going. (Then again, Jim Lebenthal did make a great call on NKE valuation last October, so there's that.)

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman, in chic new hairstyle, said of NFLX, "I'm long, it's expensive, which I don't love, but I do love the strategic position they're in." (Um, the "expensive" valuation is exactly what she should love about it. Would Karen prefer a P.E. of 9?)

Later on Halftime, Josh Brown said NFLX is having a "breakout within a breakout."

Jim Lebenthal shrugged off Josh's advocacy about the AAPL mixed reality (or whatever it's called) headset.

Frank Holland said he had the META headset and didn't like it, "I get dizzy, it doesn't make sense, nobody else is on there." Josh said that's different than what AAPL will have; the META version was "straight video gaming."

Jim got Josh to predict that AAPL won't outperform the S&P 500 this year.

If Judge isn’t back on Friday, Frank will have to handle the playoff-game-only-on-Peacock promotion

United States economic conditions took center stage again on Thursday's (1/11) Halftime Report.

Josh Brown said the risk to the stock market is not things like commercial real estate or loans going bad, rather, it's the economy and stock market "overheating."

Josh pointed out how energy is the only green sector on Thursday after being one of the few in the red on Wednesday.

Bryn Talkington said interest rates aren't going to fall "in a linear fashion" and asserted we might have "3 or less (sic meant 'fewer')" rate cuts; "There is zero reason for the Fed to be cutting rates." (Well, we'd say there's more than zero.)

Jim Lebenthal said he wanted to "bring out that very hackneyed analogy of the dog-walker and the dog." The dog is the markets, and the dog-walker is Jerome Powell. Jim asserted, "We're headed in the direction of rate cuts."

Josh Brown said car insurance was up 2% in December and 20% year over year, the largest since 1976. That's Warren Buffett's department.

Bryn: Government ‘shoves down’ pro-EV policy that consumers don’t want

It was earlier in Thursday's (1/11) Halftime Report when Jim Lebenthal mentioned a "very hackneyed analogy," but he evidently wasn't referring to what he was saying about C, which was, "Citigroup has had a tremendous discount to tangible book value, almost 50%, for quite some time."

He sees the quarterly-loss alarm as a "buying opportunity."

Brenda Vingiello, like all DIS longs, thinks better days are ahead, including "lessened" losses from streaming (snicker).

Jim admitted, "I wish I had never heard the word 'Paramount.'" Though nothing, it seems, will ever get Jim to sell the stock. "I am gonna wait until the 4th quarter is reported," in about 3 weeks, to see if the "peak losses" call from last quarter is "accurate," Jim explained.

Asked to opine on Hertz unloading a lot of its EV fleet, Bryn Talkington said, "You can't make this up. When the government shoves down policy that the consumer does not want, and they give all these subsidies to companies, this is what happens." Bryn said there are 2 EVs that Americans want to buy, Tesla and Rivian. Guest host Frank Holland said Bryn was the one who flagged this story. (The Fast Money crew took it up too. "Talk about a 180," Tim Seymour said. Karen Finerman said HTZ was "pretty p---ed" (that's seriously the word she said) about Tesla's price cuts and said she didn't know if maybe "renters don't know how to drive the electric cars," or whether they "don't want to take a chance." Karen and Mel suggested the move will hit EV used-car prices.)

Josh Brown said UBER earlier in the day took out its all-time high. (This writer is long UBER.)

Brenda Vingiello offered REITs as a contrarian trade, the same trade offered by Brian Belski a day earlier.

Joe Terranova on Closing Bell with guest host Santoli advised "Don't fall asleep on natural gas" (snicker).

Karen Finerman on Fast Money offered her own "Acronym Trade," which was HELM (which has nothing to do with The Band drummer Levon Helm). The components are XLV (the "H" in "HELM" stands for "Health care"), XLE ("Energy"), LVMH and META.

Brian Belski: Valuation is the ‘worst thing’ for evaluating tech stocks

Wednesday's (1/10) Halftime Report was chock-full of good stuff (OK, some decent conversational threads), but by far, the strongest statement was Brian Belski's takedown of P.E. ratio analysis.

"On tech, valuation by the way is the worst thing you should look at in tech. It has no predictive power, we proved it in a- in a chart that we put in in our report," Belski said.

We're still waiting to hear any counterarguments to what Belski said.

Judge and his panel let the comment pass without response.

Whatever the valuation, Belski argued tech is "not stretched."

All it takes to get the CEO of Boeing to give an interview on TV is a hole in a plane

Previewing David Calhoun's "big deal" interview the next hour with Phil LeBeau, Judge on Wednesday's (1/10) Halftime Report asked Phil for a preview.

Phil expects Calhoun to say He's buying Paramount+, "We've got to do better."

Phil stressed how Calhoun will have to assure investors that Boeing has got a "smooth progression" of plane deliveries.

Judge said, "He has to reassure fliers too." Phil said, having covered this industry for "several decades," that after accidents and mishaps, there may be short-term "nervousness" among fliers, but it's "not something that lasts for a long time."

Borrowing a slogan from Jim Lebenthal (who wasn't on the show), Judge actually used the phrase "one step forward vs. two steps back" in regard to Boeing.

"They're gonna be in the penalty box for a while," Brian Belski said of BA, borrowing a slogan from Joe Terranova.

A lot of Kari’s accounts apparently rode PYPL all the way down from the high $200s

Josh Brown, who wasn't on Wednesday's (1/10) Halftime Report, is still touting PYPL, so viewers will probably have to keep hearing about this stock for some reason, but Judge on Wednesday opened the show asking Kari Firestone about finally selling PYPL and whether she sold because of the James Faucette price cut that Josh mocked a day earlier.

Actually, "We sold it last week," Kari said, before adding this eye-opening footnote: "We were an owner of PayPal for so many years that most of our accounts had a gain in PayPal, as hard as that is to believe."

Hoo boy. We're hardly expert chartists here, but from what we can tell, the only way a long-term holder (i.e., much farther back than last October-November) could have a gain in PYPL at this particular moment is if they bought in 2017 or prior. Which means they sat on the shares for about an entire year when they traded near $300 and melted the ice cube nearly all the way down.

And now a word from our sponsors: Najarians’ ad runs during Halftime Report

Brian Belski on Wednesday's (1/10) Halftime Report shrugged off the first week of the year as "a lot of people still on vacation" with "light volume" and asserted "the adults kinda came back on Monday the 8th."

It wasn't until the 7th minute that Judge got to Joe Terranova, who stated, "So we're 7 trading days in, and you have to begin to ask yourself the question, OK, how long do you give it for the consensus to be right. ... Last year, I waited till April. This year, I'm not waiting till April."

"You gonna give it 8 days?" Judge chuckled.

Joe said, "Do you respect the dominance of algorithms right now," and he added that the S&P equal-weight is underperforming by "75 basis points" and small caps are down 3% YTD and even though "everyone loves" energy, that's the "worst sector so far year to date," while the "Mag 5" minus AAPL and TSLA are the leaders.

Judge questioned, "What are you telling me, that 2024 is gonna be 2023 all over again?"

"That's a big risk," Joe said.

Joe said he "personally" owns MSFT but that's "not enough" in the megacap space.

Shannon Saccocia stressed that there are stocks doing well "outside of those 5 names."

"Joe's gettting nervous," declared Kari Firestone.

"I wouldn't use the word 'nervous,'" Joe said.

"I would," Judge said.

"Sorry but I did already," Kari said.

Kari said "Meta is the sort of name that makes people nervous who don't own it." Kari said NVDA and CRM and GOOGL are "not that expensive" (note Belski's point above) and that's why 'People like Joe are saying 'Whoa, maybe we better buy them.'"

Joe said NVDA is rallying but "the rest of the semiconductor industry" doesn't have the "same degree of excitement."

In this Age of AI, they still don’t know how to use spellcheck

Kari Firestone, who was kinda takin' on any analyst Judge put forward on Wednesday's (1/10) Halftime Report, shrugged that Oppenheimer (the Wall Street shop, not the Christopher Nolan movie), which made CRM a top pick with a $300 target, missed the ride last year.

Joe Terranova said the "focus on reducing head count" has driven CRM and it "clearly is targeting November of '21's high of 311."

Kari said HD was a "big recipient of, you know, COVID money" in 2020-21, but after a slump, people will have to do renovating again.

Joe said LEN is sending a message to bears. "You stay with the homebuilders," Joe stated.

Kari said Citi's downgrade of SCHW "feels like a non-call."

Kari pushed back against AXP skeptics stating "there's not a recession." Joe said AXP would experience "fundamental pressure" if there's a "firm landing" rather than a "soft landing."

Bob Pisani predicted the SEC would approve bitcoin ETFs, possibly after the close Wednesday; "all the cards are aligned." Joe said a bitcoin ETF will be a "shiny new toy for the algos."

Brian Belski's contrarian trade for 2024 is REITs. He's actually got a few positions.

Josh suddenly makes James Faucette a Halftime Report household name

On Tuesday's (1/9) fairly sleepy Halftime Report, Stephanie Link said she's "staying patient" in BA, though she concedes "it's not done going down."

Sarat Sethi trimmed UBER, which Judge said seems "fashionable" these days. Sarat said it's not as attractive as a year ago (which is basically trying to time the market). (This writer is long UBER.)

Sarat offered commodities as his contrarian trade (actually Halftime viewers should consider themselves lucky; the Fast Money gang is inventing acronym trades for 2024, including Tim Seymour's BICEP); Judge could've said that commodities may be in or out of favor but are never contrarian trades. Amy Raskin offered something contrarian, ILMN, which she said has been a "nightmare." But she said it's "just had a bearish-to-bullish reversal." Sarat said ILMN is "very similar to the Uber story a year and a half ago." Judge noted Uber didn't do a "dumb acquisition."

Amy Raskin sold "a big chunk" of NKE because "the company's just not executing."

Amy trimmed JPM and GS, citing "portfolio management."

Josh Brown opened the show defending his PFE (Zzzzzz) buy, saying there are fundamental reasons to buy or not buy a stock but technicals can suggest when to buy. He said PFE has had a "change in character" and that "most of the bad news is in." On Fast Money, Karen Finerman mentioned PFE and said she doesn't know that it's bottomed.

Judge asked Josh about the Morgan Stanley downgrade of PYPL (Zzzzzzz) and noted the "price target dump" from 118 to 66. Josh said the analyst is James Faucette, who has "been dead wrong on it the whole way down." Given that, "This feels capitulationish to me," Brown said.

Josh again defended SNAP, stating, "Once people start using Snap Plus, they can't stop (snicker)."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said there seems to be "one good news story after another" in LLY. She said she's staying long.

Lions Gate exec Michael Burns joined the Fast Money set at the Nasdaq; he was once married to Lori Loughlin (before she dabbled in college admissions).

Soon, Judge is going to have to start talking up the Peacock-only playoff game

Judge on Monday's (1/8) Halftime Report asked Cathie Wood if the ARKK is just going to track the 10-year. Cathie didn't exactly answer the question and cited "algorithms" for that kind of parallel but said she thinks long-term Treasury rates "overshot" and are "on the way down." (Translation: She wants to claim no correlation but just in case there is, yields are going down anyway.)

As Judge cited big tech gains from late 2023 and mentioned ROKU and RBLX and SQ and others, Cathie assured "we have been trimming most of them."

Bob Pisani landed Cathie for ETF Edge, which is why this segment aired before the 30-minute mark.

Cathie said she thinks "the probability is very high" that bitcoin ETFs will be approved this week.

Cathie said that so many people are expecting a sell the news on the bitcoin ETF, "We might not have a sell on the news."

Cathie asserted that bitcoin is "digital gold." (That's one way to put it. Some of us aren't sure whether it's a computer program, software or GLP drug.)

Cathie also said 15 million bitcoin are in "long-term hands," which according to Cathie means they haven't moved in "more than 155 days."

Cathie told Bob that SEC approval of a bitcoin ETF is a "green light" for wirehouses to let clients plunge in.

While Bob asked, Judge was heard on open mike asking Joe Terranova if Joe wanted to ask Cathie about TWLO. It turns out that Joe did, asking Cathie about the TWLO CEO change. Cathie said it seems to be "the outcome" of activists' push and that "the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole" of the stock.

We thought it would be the old ‘2 steps forward, 1 step ...’ or whichever direction the slogan goes

Judge opened Monday's (1/8) Halftime Report telling Jim Lebenthal "the top story is all about you" because Jim has sold BA and ALK.

Jim said, "Fundamentally, there's a problem with Boeing," predicting an "earnings impact" from the blowout-related grounding.

Jim said he wanted to add a "big disclaimer," that he's "comfortable" flying in any certified airplanes.

Judge curiously asked Jim about whether making a stock trade after an incident such as this could be an "emotional decision" (snicker) that's later regretted. Jim said he agrees there's an "emotional aspect" but that he doesn't want to deal with a potential airline safety risk that's "backed up by the fundamentals."

Karen Finerman on Fast Money was anything but emotional on BA, stating, "I think it gets a little worse before it gets better."

Santoli seems underwhelmed by the ‘baseball card’ graphic the show’s producers made for him (admittedly, the Morse code dots are a little odd)

Judge asked Anastasia Amoroso on Monday's (1/8) Halftime Report if this week will be the defining one of how the year goes. (Because frankly, last week kinda stunk.)

Anastasia said it's a "really important week" and that last week may have set up a good week with yields creeping up, also, we entered the year in a "very overbought condition" but have now "corrected some of that."

Steve Weiss said we're "OK for now."

Weiss said, "Unquestionably, the Fed's gonna go 3 times this year in my view," which he said will be "enough" for the bulls.

Joe Terranova said that despite last week's stumble, it was "all technical in its nature" and doesn't change the narratives entering the year.

Lessee ... someone claimed last week that the Mag 7 ‘easy button’ worked last year, but this year, you have to do your ‘homework’

Steve Weiss on Monday's (1/8) Halftime Report said he doesn't think AAPL has had enough multiple compression and that other Megacap Tech have better fundamentals. Weiss said China is a "big issue" for AAPL.

Joe Terranova said he "kinda" agrees with Weiss and that Monday isn't "some form of a referendum" on AAPL and that we don't have to "keep trying to pretend and play this game that the Mag 7 are not gonna matter in 2024."

We agree with that, and we're wondering if Joe is citing the same names that come to mind around here as pretending to claim the Mag 7 will fall out of favor quicker than the Jacksonville Jaguars' playoff chances.

Jim Lebenthal said the AAPL buybacks are a factor but that he's not all that jazzed about the stock either.

More on how P.E. ratios (don’t actually) predict a stock’s direction

Judge on Monday's (1/8) Halftime Report sounded surprised that Steve Weiss is back in HUM.

"It's called trading," Weiss explained, before mentioning Steve Cohen and getting jeered by Judge for name-dropping.

"Sometimes you've gotta get out of a stock, OK, and just think clearly about it, and then you go back in," Weiss revealed, predicting Jim Lebenthal will get back in BA.

"This is actually a great point," Jim said. Weiss called HUM "a counterbalance to my tech exposure."

Meanwhile, Joe Terranova said the market has a "high level of expectations" for LULU for years, and "the company delivers." Weiss lamented selling LULU a while back and said it's got a "fortress brand." He said it could be like CMG in holding a high valuation "forever."

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said LULU is "getting a way-premium-to-market multiple." Karen praised ANF's CEO and said the multiple isn't crazy but that the stock has had a big run.

Anastasia Amoroso had the obligation on Monday to come up with a contrarian trade; Anastasia offered commercial real estate. Anastasia said there's "a big pool of capital" eager to make loans at "about 9%." She said "I would be looking to buy public REITs" and real estate debt.

Our contrarian trade is that Matthew McConaughey never finds out who’s the sheriff of the AI Wild West

Pressing on with his dubious new feature, Judge on Friday's (1/5) Halftime Report asked panelists for another batch of "contrarian trades."

Jenny Harrington offered commercial real estate, specifically offices. "Lean in, but not broadly," Jenny advised. (Translation: The only part of this trade that she's doing isn't really contrarian.) "Don't go out and buy indexes."

Jenny touted SLG and BXP and the quality of their portfolios. For others, "You don't wanna own the crummy little buildings," Jenny explained.

After Jenny stopped, Jason Snipe offered biotech, specifically IBB (he actually owns it), noting price controls are "always on the docket" in an election year but "free cash flow is starting to grow again."

Judge said his own contrarian trade for Steve Weiss is that "you're gonna smile more in 2024." Jenny Harrington cracked, "I'm shorting that," which was actually her best line in months.

Weiss said his contrarian trade is energy, which he predicted will "disappoint."

Don’t people have all kinds of losses from ’22 that can absorb all these ’23 gains that they held until ’24?

Given that many people have been forecasting a decent 2024 in the stock market, the first week of trading has been puzzling at best, disheartening at worst.

Jim Lebenthal on Friday's (1/5) Halftime shrugged "This is the pause that refreshes" and said it's nothing more than "noise."

Jenny Harrington said "I feel good about this year," but typically when she sells something, she buys something else, but so far this year she's found nothing to "pair."

Judge asked Jenny about some sales and said it "feels to me like a little bit of nervousness." Jenny insisted it's "not a macro call" but "literally like Portfolio Management 101." (Actually it seems a little like "literally guessing at short-term market tops.")

Jason Snipe said, "It is time for a little bit of digestion going forward."

Jason trimmed NOW, stating, "Software enterprise- software spend is slowing."

Steve Weiss offered, "The headlines are still accurate," meaning the Fed will cut, but "they're not cutting 6 times." Inflation is still "stubbornly high," Weiss asserted, and he doesn't even think recession (snicker) is "out of the question yet."

Judge said Bank of America reports that we've had the "highest cash inflow ever for a first week of the year." Jim said it's "FOMO."

Still wondering how today’s P.E. ratio can predict ‘muted’ returns over a ‘10-year time horizon’

On Friday's (1/5) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss talked up his favorite "permanent compounder," MSFT, though Jenny Harrington didn't necessarily agree, wondering about the "realistic return potential" for 2024 and 2025.

Weiss said he expects MSFT to do "at least as well as the market."

After the A Block, Judge was talking about PANW again. (Zzzzzzzzz.) Judge asked Jenny why she wasn't trimming PANW. Jenny pointed out how much it's up (550%) in the 6 years she has owned it, then claimed, as they always do, "There is no end in sight, ever, to cyberthreats." (There's also no end in sight, ever, to taking airplane flights and growing corn; does that mean Boeing and John Deere are permanent compounders?)

Jim Lebenthal again mentioned the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. (And after it's refilled ... do we jump for joy?)

Judge said Wolfe is expecting more dividend cuts in 2024. "I think it's a silly comment to make," Jenny said, saying Goldman "basically said the same thing" at the "worst of the pandemic," only to decide 11 months later, "dividends are wonderful." (Well, um, probably a lot of shops had troubling outlooks for the financial markets at the beginning of the pandemic.)

Jim apparently told producers he "violently" disagrees with this Wolfe call.

On Fast Money, guest Alexander Edwards made maybe the most interesting point of the week, that EVs are associated with Democrats and that such association may be an "imaginary barrier" for some people who may otherwise be interested in buying them. Steve Grasso said there's "no way" the cybertruck is a "liberal" vehicle.

Josh not impressed with the reseach Judge is citing at the top of the show

Jim Lebenthal on Thursday's (1/4) Halftime Report pronounced the selloff this week "hardly unexpected."

Regarding the Magnificent 7, Judge actually told Josh Brown, "The hardest thing with these stocks is knowing when to get out and when to get in." (Can't that basically be said about every stock?)

Judge said Roth MKM is recommending profit-taking in AMZN and says "many names are now stretched."

Josh shrugged, explaining that people should know whether they're an "investor" or a "trader" and MKM is "tactically" trying to make short-term calls and what if they're wrong and you miss out.

In any case, "I don't care," Brown said.

Shannon Saccocia said the Magnificent 7 have been vulnerable to not only multiple compression but "kind of a switch in momentum." Shannon and Kari stressed that there's still money coming in off the sidelines.

Jim said that "relative" to the "easy button" people used to invest in the Magnificent 7 last year, this year will require "all of us doing the homework that we love to do." (Hmmmm ... "homework" ... is that what people are doing with their "contrarian calls"?)

Jim said he "certainly" watched other Halftime shows this week; "I watch every time I'm not on."

Judge’s ‘contrarian trade’ already seems like a massive bust (given that panelists aren’t even making these trades)

On Thursday's (1/4) Halftime Report, Josh Brown said his "contrarian trade" was the KWEB, just like Bryn Talkington (who bluntly stated she's not even in the trade).

"This is probably the biggest contrarian swing that you can take," Josh said.

Shannon Saccocia's contrarian trade was commodities. Kari Firestone's contrarian trade was KMX; she is actually long that name. Jim Lebenthal said utilities. He cited PCG as his long in that space. According to CNBC's disclosures on Thursday, Josh is not long KWEB (just like Bryn isn't), and Shannon's disclosures were unavailable.

In a laborious conversation about semiconductors and ON and NXPI and Mobileye that included Kristina Partsinevelos, Jim and Kristina disagreed over NXPI's guidance. Kristina insisted it "guided Q1 below." Jim insisted it was "pretty good on the guidance." Moments later, Judge said NXPI's guidance was "slightly below analysts' expectations." Jim apologized to Kristina and said he "didn't mean to like call her out on that" and said his own "interpretation" is that NXPI is underappreciated.

Kari conceded Apple Pay is an "enormous competitor" to PYPL, a stock we've long grown sick of hearing about. Josh Brown, who recently bought PYPL and stressed that it's not a "huge stake," said he thinks "a lot of pessimism has already been priced in." Josh mentioned the "17 multiple" (so now multiples are a catalyst again) and claimed "you're not really taking a huge risk on multiple to bet that something might go right."

Josh said PYPL's CEO might have ideas about a "strategic transaction."

Kari said "the consumer product" is growing for AXP. Judge even suggested AXP is an "AI play (snicker), in some respects." Kari said, "Yeah, sure." Kari said, "I bet most people who come on this show use their American Express card and, and think highly of it."

Kari said LLY's direct-to-consumer is a "game-changer." Judge wondered why Kari isn't "buying it today." Kari said, "Well, this just happened!" Jim said he's "not taking anything away from Eli Lilly," but the stock is "priced for perfection."

Joe Terranova, meanwhile, appeared on Closing Bell with Judge and said the market is "going through a technical correction" and there's a "risk" that this correction "evolves into something a little bit larger," apparently because March Fed cuts may not happen. He said "it's very clear that the market was technically overbought."

Jeff deGraaf on Closing Bell suggested that in this first week we've had "some tax-loss selling." Why would anyone wait until January to take a loss?

Suddenly, nearly everyone on Halftime Report is knocking P.E. ratio analysis

It seems like this page has started a trend.

After pointing out in our year-end review (see below) how several Halftime Report panelists have recently asserted that P.E. ratio isn't a determinant of stock direction, several panelists have echoed that thought this week.

On Wednesday (1/3), Judge asked Bryn Talkington, "How much do megacap multiples need to correct?"

"Multiples are a terrible metric for timing," Bryn started to say.

"Everybody keeps saying that," Judge cut in. "I hear you on that. I heard that- I heard that 2 or 3 times yesterday as well." But Judge said the "bottom line" is that if the multiples are viewed as "extended," they have to correct before people will jump in.

Bryn questioned whether AAPL deserves a "kinda high" 30 multiple and said NVDA "could be one of the cheapest names."

Or basically, what Bryn's really saying is that P.E. ratio is an effect and not a cause and that stocks with high ones may surge and other stocks with high ones may stumble, and stocks with low ones may surge and other stocks with low ones may stumble.

Mike Santoli said the Magnificent 7 names aren't at peak valuations like pre-pandemic.

Judge has apparently dropped the Stock Summit; presumably panelists didn’t want it

Early into Wednesday's (1/3) Halftime Report, Bryn Talkington sounded a cautionary note, stating, "There is some history" to how the first week of stock market trading signals the first month, which signals the whole year, so you have to "read into what happens this week."

Fair point. Then again, it's only been 2 days.

What are we gonna get, a VIX of 60 on Friday?

Judge again brought up Jim Cramer's quote from Tuesday, "Trim across the board." But Joe Terranova said he doesn't think "anything has changed" from the Q4 narrative.

"I think the GDP is running hotter than expected," Stephanie Link said.

Judge said Bespoke found that Tuesday was the 5th time in Nasdaq's history that it started the year down 1.5% or more.

Joe said he thinks at some point in the first half of the year, we'll be talking about "some form of a growth scare."

Curiously, with no sign at all of a 2024 "Stock Summit" like they did last year, Judge introduced a "contrarian trade" feature after the A block, starting with Bryn, who admitted "we will not be making this trade by the way" (that's quite an endorsement). Bryn's trade was KWEB.

Stephanie Link's "contrarian" call is either housing or HD or both. She said it's "definitely on my radar."

Then Judge asked Joe for an "actionable" contrarian trade he'd actually "make." Joe suggested "corporate debt" (Zzzzzz), such as LQD or HYG. Joe said he's looking to personally buy Alphabet. That's a real contrarian. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Sounds like D.A. Davidson is making the real contrarian call

Borrowing headline-making comments from others rather than generating them from his own show, Judge on Wednesday's (1/3) Halftime Report said D.A. Davidson is suggesting AI might be "just another cycle."

Joe Terranova said "I completely disagree with the premise" because of the spending in AI. Joe said there's no way in 2 days that the market has "worked off" the excesses of the chase for megacaps and semis. "They're stlil crowded trades," Joe explained. (But that didn't quite address whether AI might be "just another cycle.")

Joe bought IBKR, suggesting optimism for the capital market environment. Bryn Talkington said you can also try the CME.

Stephanie Link bought XOM and BMY. "I'm a very big believer in mean reversion," Link said.

Bryn said RBLX has broken out above 40 and if it can stay above 40, it can get to 50, but she suggested it needs profitability before it can get over 50.

Joe said there's "a lot of challenges ahead" for airlines this year.

Joe said LLY can "dominate the market" in GLP drugs.

Stephanie said SCHW is her "top idea in financials."

First argument of the year: Joe demands Weiss acknowledge UBER is an ‘industrial’

Who woulda thunk that the most polarizing subject on Tuesday's (1/2) Halftime Report would be ... S&P's sector classifications.

After the A Block, Josh Brown explained how "TAM opportunity" justifies the prospects of UBER trading "significantly higher in the next year or two." (This writer is long UBER.)

Steve Weiss said he trimmed UBER because he doesn't think it's "compellingly cheap." Brown asked about buyback potential. Weiss said buybacks have "become the base case for analysts now" and that it's "something Dara's whispered to 'em."

But Weiss doesn't believe in the "freight" case for UBER and predicts "they'll probably exit freight."

Joe Terranova said he too trimmed UBER but disagreed with Weiss, calling UBER "almost essential to the consumer." Joe also argued (and this is what started everything), "This is an industrial name," and where else will industrial investors go for this kind of revenue growth.

Weiss cut in, "I don't look at things like that." Joe then demanded Weiss "acknowledge" that a "tremendous amount of capital" is viewing the stock that way. Weiss said "without a doubt," but that view is "misplaced," he thinks "it's really a technology company."

Josh offered, "I think it's consumer discretionary," though "it is a transport, that's why it's in industrials."

Liz, Joe (sorta) bash P.E. ratio timing on first trading day of new year

That didn't take long.

Just after this page noted (see below) in its year-end review how many voices on the Halftime Report suggested P.E. ratio doesn't tell you anything about where a stock is going, Liz Young and Joe Terranova piled on Tuesday (1/2).

Liz stated, "P.E.'s are a terrible timing mechanism," but then somehow claimed they're good for a "10-year time horizon" and can suggest a "muted" return over 5-10 years if the P.E. seems elevated now. (Um, note to Liz, we can't fathom how someone can look at a P.E. today and determine if a stock is going to be overvalued in 5 years.)

Joe said, "Forget the valuation argument, and I agree with Liz, I don't think valuation is a good indication of where something might or might not be going."

Perfect. Well said.

Liz actually said that stock-picking will be "the technique of choice (snicker) in 2024."

Josh Brown pointed out that basically since the pandemic, the market has decided that AAPL's average P.E. should "double" from previous levels. Brown chalked that up to "consistency of profits."

Later on Fast Money, Dan Nathan again predicted, "I think at some point Microsoft overtakes Apple this year in market cap and never looks back." According to what we see on Yahoo! Finance, AAPL leads, 2.88 vs. 2.75.

Weiss agrees with Jim on something important — both are predicting 8% up in 2024

Judge opened the new year of the Halftime Report on Tuesday (1/2) stating that Jim Cramer is advising, "Trim across the board."

Steve Weiss said he trimmed META and MSFT; he said his view on the stocks hasn't changed but the positions had gotten "almost irresponsibly large." (Which helps no one. Stocks don't go up or down based on what else is in Weiss' portfolio.)

Weiss said he actually trimmed Friday and that other people apparently had the same idea, selling before others unloaded in the new year.

Joe Terranova pointed to the "Apple note" in the morning from 6:00 to 6:35. Judge cut in and said that was a Barclays downgrade of AAPL to underweight, suggesting the stock needs a "breather."

Joe said, bluntly, that the Magnificent 7 is a "crowded trade" and said people are changing their approach to owning those names by "degree."

Weiss predicted 2024 is a "muted year" of 8-12% returns with "stubborn" inflation, unless there's a recession. (That 8% set off alarm bells here, as another panelist who wasn't on the show Tuesday recently made the same forecast.)

Joe said semiconductor stocks "are 20-30% above their 200-day moving average," when historically, the "sweet spot" has been "11-15%."

Judge said Oppenheimer has a 5,400 S&P target and that Oppenheimer calls it "probable and even conservative." Liz Young said "Hmmmph," and "That's aggressive, to me" (as if she was ever going to agree with that), before chuckling.

Weiss says you can get bitcoin anywhere

In a bit of a surprise, Judge devoted a segment of Tuesday's (1/2) Halftime Report (with CNBC's Kate Rooney) to cryptocurrency, which Judge is calling an "asset class."

Steve Weiss, who made a great call in bitcoin last fall (see our year-end wrap below), said he trimmed bitcoin on Friday (along with, it sounds like, just about everything else he owns, hopefully not his cars or furniture), "a day or two early."

Weiss affirmed, "I don't believe in bitcoin, I still see no use case, no end market for it." Weiss suggested "the news is priced in" regarding ETFs.

Weiss explained "You don't need an ETF" for bitcoin; "It's very easy to buy," on Fidelity, Robinhood, "everywhere."

Josh Brown said the beginning of bitcoin futures in 2017 was the short-term top.

Meanwhile, Weiss affirmed he sold HUM last Friday but said he hasn't sold any UNH. Weiss noted it's a "highly charged political environment" and that health care "typically" comes up during presidential campaigns, but he thinks "some of that underperformance frankly was pulled forward."

Weiss said he's got "a lot of cash right now" but he bought TSM, TDG and TXT.

Joe Terranova said BKNG and EXPE are "technically overextended," but fundamentals are still in place.

Weiss said Jane Fraser should be "commended" for taking a "very, very critical eye" to the C business and not just, apparently, chopping everything in sight.

Halftime Report/Fast Money Year in Review — who had the Call of the Year?

It's (mostly) one of our favorite times of the year: The time when this page gets to pronounce the Call of the Year on CNBC's Halftime Report (or possibly Fast Money, but longtime readers know there are only so many hours in the day) (We can't do Sully's 7 p.m. Eastern show either).

The only reason it's not always our favorite time of the year is because we have to sift through literally mountains of internet dreck to verify who said what/when. (That, and the fact the Steelers are always looking for help around this weekend to get into the playoffs that they can't get into on their own.)

Almost anything was fair game. We freely admit we are sick of hearing about PANW, PYPL, MSFT, PARA, DE, DIS and even UBER (this writer is long UBER), so we kinda shunned any calls related to those names, as there are far too many to deal with.

We took note of how panelists pronounced "either" and "data." (We could do "route" next year too.)

In 2023, at least 3 people questioned or even denounced the ever-popular valuation as a determinant of stock direction. Tom Lee on Dec. 20's Closing Bell told Judge, "As you know, valuation isn't really why anyone should ever sell a stock nor why they should buy a stock. It really should be whether earnings momentum is accelerating." Brian Belski on Sept. 6 stated, "Valuation is the worst predictor of future performance." And Joe Terranova asked Steve Weiss on Nov. 1, "We talk about valuation all the time on this show, right. Is valuation really the catalyst for where future returns are gonna be and where you wanna be." Weiss didn't really argue but insisted it's not about "momentum" either but about "fundamentals" also.

(Note: Joe's question for Weiss was going to be in the Call of the Year list, but we decided we couldn't rank it that high.)

Before we get into the Worst and Best of 2023, some of the Memorable Moments ...

Ray Romano complains about having to wake up early at celeb golf outings, July 13: Judge's trip to Tahoe really included some hard news reporting. Ray said he "woke up at 5 to 5 this morning." Judge said, "Join the club."

Jenny Harrington says panelists are ‘not allowed’ to discuss performance on the show, May 18: Jenny said, "I know we're not allowed to talk about performance on the show." That took Judge by surprise, who seemed to disagree. "No, I'm not allowed to talk about that. Like the SEC comes down on you or whatever," Jenny claimed. (Yeah, sure.) (Everyone's getting calls from the SEC.)

Josh Brown detects a "breadth thrust," Nov. 14: We're still not sure how it's any different than bread crust, but Josh assured, "Very rarely do these things melt away and we go back to a downtrend."

Jenny Harrington says Big Tech is ‘like the lazy trade,’ March 29: That's an interesting way to describe it. An argument for "lazy" investing ...

Steve Weiss says "bull----" on live television, Feb. 3: "90% of all AI applications fail, or they're bulls---," Weiss said. No indication the FCC ever levied a fine.

Seema Mody gets street exclusive with Tim Cook, better than any of Judge's "scoops" in 2023: Tim said he and others had an "incredible discussion" at the White House meeting with Narendra Modi and a "great state visit."

Elon Musk chortles at Eamon Javers' question about the meaning of "double-edged sword": In other CNBC street interviews, this one was a little more candid.

The JOET finishes the year up 16.34%, including once-a-year dividend: Don't take it from this page, as our math is probably wrong, but that's what we came up with. (Yahoo! Finance says it was 16.63%.)

Weiss suggests Judge prepare a "résumé" for a bank examiner position, May 3: Weiss said anyone who thinks they're a better "bank examiner" than the Fed should apply for the job, including Judge. Judge scoffed, "The regulator of the banks- The same regulator out in Silicon Valley, the head of the San Francisco Fed was so on the case that SVB blew up in our face." Weiss suggested Judge prepare a "résumé" for that opening. (Notify WME if that happens.)

Joe dubs LULU a "footwear company," Sept. 20: "I think, yes they're a footwear company. Lululemon is also a footwear company," Joe told Judge.

Weiss questions why DIS ever took up streaming, Sept. 13: "Frankly, I don't know why Disney went into the streaming business. I know what they thought. I don't know why they're staying in it when they're such a strong content provider. Maybe it makes sense for 'em to rethink that. I don't believe they will, but I'd suggest that," he said.

Liz Young gets the Sunday Ticket: On July 26, Liz revealed, "I'm like the only woman in Manhattan that has the NFL Sunday Ticket and the MLB package."

Steve Weiss labels the candidates for the White House in 2024, Aug. 2: "Either you keep a socialist in the White House who's bad for business, or you put somebody in there who's incompetent and unfit to serve ... I don't like either one of 'em."

2023: The Busts of the Year

Here we go, in descending order, stopping at a number that seems relevant for both the good and the bad ...

12. Joe buffaloed out of the QQQ by Fedspeak, Oct. 20

It closed that day at $354. Joe explained that he was in QQQ "around 368, but here's where I ran into a problem ... I tried to defend that position" ... and now there's a "new dynamic from the Federal Reserve which seems as though they don't want to quit." They did.

11. Brad Gerstner predicts SVB will be a ‘big part’ of 2024 politics

Actually, we doubt it's hardly come up in Iowa or New Hampshire yet.

10. Bryn Talkington says 212 will be ‘high of the year’ for TSLA, April 20

It had already reached $214 on Feb. 15. In any case, it crept into the high 200s in the summer.

9. Jeremy Siegel ‘absolutely’ thinks the Fed will cut in 2023, April 12

We think, in general, he was mostly right. He was too early here, and too much of a worrywart/complainer from 2021-2023 about interest rates in either direction.

8. Liz Young says she agrees with Jeffrey Gundlach that the recession is a few months away, ‘maybe sooner,’ March 28

She said she'd "rather just get it over with in April ... and go on with our lives later in the year."

7. Joe sells TWLO at low for the year, May 10

He announced on the show he sold TWLO on the open that day, it opened 45.88, which was basically the low for the year; in fact, if you had bought Joe's shares on 5/10, you would've had a 50% gain by the end of that month.

6. Jenny makes lengthy case for ‘dirt cheap’ AAP, Dec. 30, 2022

This would not have made the list if Jenny had just thrown in the towel. The stock crashed into the 70s on May 31; Jenny argued, "Well, I think the shares are oversold." (Turns out, they weren't.)

5. Weiss hangs on to DKS for disastrous earnings selloff, Aug. 22

Judge that day stated, "Steve Weiss missed." Weiss dialed in and said, "I got a little piggish. ... And I was wrong. ... Really no excuse for owning it given where my price target was." (But all wasn't lost for Weiss on this trade, see below.)

4. Rich Saperstein says ‘Stocks have probably seen their high for the year,’ Nov. 1

The S&P 500 was 4,237 that day. (He also on Dec. 29, 2022, predicted "lower stock prices in '23.")

3. Jim and Kari buy FRC, circa March 14

Neither one said to put the rent money here. But still. "I'm not trying to be a hero here at all," Jim explained, insisting FRC is a "good bank" and "half of the assets on its balance sheet are mortgages" and it's now "meaningfully undervalued." Kari listed several reasons for buying, including knowing people who work there. (It wasn't just them: This writer did briefly own shares of FRC that month and thankfully didn't mention it on TV.)

2. Weiss, Joe endorse MRNA in 1st half of 2023

It's hard to find a more ghastly stock this year, at least among stocks that people actually used to think were good. On Feb. 6, at 170, Joe called MRNA a "very low risk" trade. Weiss picked it for his Stock Summit and defended it for months before throwing in the towel.

1. Bust of the Year: David Tepper trades the farm for the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, wins 2 games, fires another coach midseason

Evidently, evaluating quarterbacking is tougher than evaluating balance sheets.

Our countdown of the 2023 Call of the Year ...

Here we go, in descending order ...

12. Steve Weiss buys more DKS a week after rough selloff, Aug. 30

Just days after admitting he stayed too long in DKS near 150, he scooped it up on the rebound with a "pretty decent-sized position" on a day it traded $114, "I just thought it was oversold." (Yes, it did dip to 101 in late October, but look at it now.)

11. Jim Lebenthal buys NKE, Oct. 3, based on multiple

There are few things this page likes to jab more than someone on the Halftime Report or Fast Money citing "valuation." But this time Jim stuck it to us and any other doubters with a sensational purchase of NKE on a day it closed at 95. "Historically getting it at 24 times forward earnings, which is roughly where it is right now, has been a win for me," Jim said. Jim also stuck by his Factset numbers as Judge quibbled with what the actual forward multiple was.

10. Josh Brown touts Big Head Todd and the Monsters, May 16

He was saying that when the masses get involved in a stock, you don't have to get out. "I didn't throw out Big Head Todd and the Monsters just because all of a sudden, they had a Top 10 hit song in the 1990s," Brown revealed. We'd heard of Big Head Todd (and maybe even have a disc somewhere) but really didn't know their material or ever listen. That changed after Brown's comments; it's a YouTube staple at CNBCfix HQ.

9. Jim Lebenthal predicts ‘face-ripping 4th-quarter rally,’ Sept. 1

This was a tremendous call and even a candidate for year's best. The only problem: September and October were horrible, and the S&P was 4,515 on the day Jim made this call, so much of the face-ripping rally was recovering losses. But still a great forecast.

8. Jason Snipe on Feb. 17 calls NVDA a ‘core holding,’ says it’s in a great place for the ‘gold rush in AI’

Most panelists, for reasons we don't quite get, stayed away from NVDA and made it a point to question the valuation whenever asked about it. Fairly quietly, Jason touted this stock more than anyone except Josh Brown, from the start of the year. Had Jason pounded the table a little more loudly, he'd be surging up this list.

7. Steve Weiss makes bitcoin his Final Trade, Oct. 18, re-recommends several times

It was $28,000 then, $41,700 now. Now, here's the deal ... this page doesn't really do bitcoin. We kinda wished nobody traded it. But there's heavy interest, and Weiss nailed it, and perhaps most impressively, he is not someone who touts this stuff once a week; it's just the opposite.

6. Steve Weiss announces exit from JUST fund advisory board, Oct. 13

Nearly the choice for Call of the Year, then we realized, we can't give it to Weiss 3 years in a row. (That's (mostly) a joke.) He spoke of taking a stand for something besides dollars, explaining that the JUST fund was created by Paul Tudor Jones "to drive equality in the workplace and, and, adjust the capitalist environment." Weiss said he "stepped off" the investment advisory board of JUST on the previous Friday "because of what's happened in the Middle East. This is a point you have to take a stand. ... They've been completely silent. I exchanged emails with, with Martin Whittaker, one of the founders with Paul Tudor Jones, today, and he said, his exact words were, 'Uh, I don't think that we could drive the dialogue by saying anything.' Are you out of your mind? Are you kidding me? Now's the time where you say something. ... This is a time to take a stand. And, he is not taking a stand, and their mission has become blurred and sidetracked. So, I resigned from the advisory board today, and I sold the shares. Period." (Note: This page is not taking a stand on Weiss' position or that of the fund or that of this geopolitical situation; it is crediting Weiss for stressing other principles besides profit.)

5. Matt Boss says RCL ‘could be a double,’ April 28

Normally Matt Boss (who probably appeared on the show just once last year) would not be in our mix, but he was so astoundingly accurate in April, he ended up a Call of the Year contender. Boss said there's a consumer trend back to "experiential" and that he's actually looking for nearly 50% upside in RCL and it "could be a double." Shares were about $65 then. Check them out now.

4. Stephanie Link makes AVGO a Stock Summit pick, defends it throughout 2023

Perhaps the year's most consistent recommendation, a good stock until late May, then a superb stock, then in November, a really superb stock.

3. Brad Gerstner gushes about the META quarter, Feb. 2

A lot of panelists mentioned owning META during 2023 or even late 2022. Gerstner isn't a panelist, but he's the guy who did write the open letter to management in 2022, and most importantly, his cheerleading of the "incredible" report and the "efficiency" and "engagement" on Feb. 2 when many wondered if it's time to cash in more than came to fruition throughout the rest of the year for the 2nd-biggest Big Tech gainer.

2. Tom Lee, Jan. 9, says opening days imply 23+% gain for 2023

This came darn close. On Overtime that day, Lee said FANG may be the "easiest buy" to play a tech recovery and could be up "50%" in 2023.

1. The Halftime Report/Fast Money 2023 Call of the Year: Josh Brown crowns NVDA the ‘grand marshal’ of the ‘full-blown AI bubble’

It was on May 25 that NVDA emerged as King of the 2023 stock market. Josh mentioned "grand marshal" that day and probably in previous appearances. In extremely gracious remarks, Jim Lebenthal congratulated Brown: "Josh, I don't even have words to congratulate you, this has been your name for years, you've blown it out of the water, this is amazing beyond words." Even had NVDA relinquished some or all of its spring gains later in the year, it would've been a strong contender, but it didn't. For touting this stock for many years, it's the easy Call of the Year for 2023.

In closing, let's reaffirm why we're here — because whatever the size, the audience that watches the Halftime Report and somehow finds its way to this page once a day/week/month/year is the best in the world. We're here because you are — following Wall Street, reviewing television, trying to inform (and occasionally entertain), fighting for every click we might get. As always, we want all panelists and viewers to succeed and give us a long list of great calls for next year's list. To Judge and Melissa and those on the shows, we say, Keep. Doing. What. You're. Doing.

Happy 2024, and Happy Trading!

Delivering Alpha actually surveyed people about next year’s best Magnificent 7 stock

Well, that was curious.

Friday's (12/29) show could've been called the Half-hearted Report given that usually, the last trading-day show of the year is chock-full of yearly recaps and next-year predictions, and yet the 2023 year-ender was about as fascinating as the movie "Ferrari" (that's a free entertainment tip) (see below).

Judge again took the day off and guest host Frank Holland, despite a yeoman effort, got little more than the type of market outlook you'd get in mid-August, unless you count Jenny Harrington's repeated pronouncements about how basically (not the actual quote) tech is toast and everyone's gonna buy low P.E. stocks for the next 10 years.

Jason Snipe said people waiting to sell for tax reasons is "playing out in the market," but there are a lot of "bullish tailwinds."

Grandpa Rob Sechan stated, "Equity markets certainly appear overbought right here."

Josh Brown said the markets should want longer-term bond rates to climb and uninvert the curve, which he called "101 stuff." Josh mocked the notion of someone trying to maneuver their portfolio to avoid a "1% pullback" in January.

Jenny said that next week, there aren't any stocks she wants to buy, but "There's 3 stocks I want to sell."

Frank for some reason turned to Jenny to opine on the CNBC Delivering Alpha survey that found MSFT the top pick of the Magnificent 7 for next year. Jenny said "you know I disagree," but she doesn't know which stock she would pick from the list instead. (Here's where Weiss would say, if he were on the program, "It deserves a higher multiple because it's got recurring revenue.")

Josh said he understands Nomura's downgrade of UBER. He said the 200-day has been "perfect support." Jenny also owns UBER and suggested it "maybe" has just 8-10% upside. (This writer is long UBER.)

Josh again outlined the cases for/against PYPL. Josh expressed confidence in the CEO and said if he were running PYPL, he'd change the name to "Venmo."

Jenny said energy is in a "much more normalized, less-distorted trajectory." Rob said that "selectively," energy is a great spot to find a "laggard" that will do well in 2024.

Josh said CRWD was No. 3 in the Nasdaq 100 in 2023 performance, behind only NVDA and META. Josh said cybersecurity is "the guaranteed secular bull market of the next 10 years." (Actually people have basically been saying that for a couple decades; the stocks don't always go up.) Jason Snipe said, "Palo Alto's our pick."

Rob Sechan's Final Trade was RACE; he mentioned "there's a movie coming out soon" (it's already out).

‘Recession’ kind of is ... always a possibility at some point in the future

On Thursday's (12/28) Halftime Report, Bob Pisani tackled what could go wrong for stocks in 2024, and of course, our ears were perked up.

Until we realized, there's really no there there.

Bob said there could be 1) Fewer rate cuts than expected; 2) Recession; 3) Earnings slowdown.

All of that collectively sounds like "The economy may get too good or too slow." (Hard to cover much more ground than that.)

Bob said only 50% of reporting companies are beating on revenues, though 94% are beating on earnings. (But it didn't seem like the sample reporting size was very large yet.)

The VIX is an effect, not a cause

Guest host Frank Holland on Thursday's (12/28) Halftime Report said the Nasdaq is having its "best year since 1999."

Josh Brown said he doesn't call this a "Santa Claus rally," rather he calls it a "career-security rally."

Brown said with the Nasdaq and S&P up as much as they are, money managers can't be "sitting with the amount of cash that a lot of people are sitting on." (Actually they can, but whatever.)

Undoubtedly echoing the sentiments of many, Kevin Simpson said, "I wish we had another quarter in 2023."

Bryn Talkington said Ned Davis calculated that when the S&P reaches a new high, the "median return" a year later is "a little over 13%."

Jim Lebenthal, who wasn't at Post 9 and who looked and sounded like he was in some 1970s TV news video being interviewed by Harry Reasoner, is "starting to nibble" in the IJR, based on his research suggesting a "16% return in small caps next year," which is twice his 8% prediction for the S&P 500.

Jim also drew a distinction between the S&P 600 and the Russell 2000.

Josh was asleep at the switch when Frank asked him if he's a "believer" in the "broadening out" of the rally; Frank did add a lengthy stat about Bespoke saying this is the Russell's "3rd-biggest 2-month gain in history," up 24%, while phrasing the question.

"What's the question," Brown finally said, launching into a bit of a "Hollywood Squares" routine.

Frank asked again about the broadening of the rally. Josh said stocks that have been rallying can "continue to work."

Josh again touted JPM making more money in 2023 than any bank in American history.

Brown said the VIX has "remained under 25 for 202 straight trading days," the longest streak since 2019, according to Brown.

Haven’t heard anyone bring up Steven Ballmer in a long time

Late in Thursday's (12/28) Halftime Report, guest host Frank Holland asked Bryn Talkington about the big year of GBTC and ETHE, which proved a lot different than when Judge asked Bryn about the Tesla "recall" ... "Recall? RECALL????!!!!!!!!??????? IT'S A SOFTWARE UPDATE!!!!!"

Bryn said she didn't buy (presumably GBTC) last January; she's owned for years. Bryn said there's a "fever pitch" for the ETF but we're not hearing anything from the SEC, which Bryn finds "a little bit strange." Bryn did say there are "better ways to own" bitcoin than GBTC.

Meanwhile, Steve Kovach outlined the outlook for AAPL. Steve said there is "good news and bad news" for AAPL in 2024.

Jim Lebenthal again stated, "I don't know anyone in the United States, or the developed world really, who owns an Android phone. I literally know no one."

But Jim said he's "underweight Apple, meaningfully so."

Kevin Simpson said AAPL's multiple in the 30s isn't justified.

Josh Brown pointed out that AAPL's market cap has grown a lot faster than earnings, but he doesn't want to be out of the stock, and he cited the buybacks.

Brown claimed that Steven Ballmer and the "guy from Nokia" thought nobody would buy an iPhone, so Josh doesn't think people are just going to yawn at AAPL's upcoming "VR (snicker) product."

Jim touted the airline trade in 2024.

Bryn said it seems like FDX wants to bounce along the 200-day of 245.

Jim predicted VRTX will do well but noted the multiple.

Bryn lamented selling XBI "like 2 weeks before it has had this massive run."

CNBC's Pippa Stevens reported on blenders that can go crazy.

Pippa Stevens discussed the state of the lithium industry. Bryn said "it's been a negative year" for SQM and ALB but is expecting better times in 2024.

Jim launched into definitions of specialty and commodity and talked up MP.

Weiss opens the door to
a 20%-plus return in 2024

Wednesday's (12/27) Halftime Report was not particularly newsworthy and featured numerous speeches from Jenny Harrington, but Steve Weiss said something that definitely caught our ear.

Weiss said he's looked back 60 years, and having back-to-back years of 20-30% gains is "not as rare as you think."

Weiss said markets are "directional" and that it doesn't matter whether the Fed cuts 3 times or 6 times.

It matters why they cut," Judge stated.

Weiss also said, "The recession question (snicker) is not answered completely yet."

Jenny Harrington said the thing she's "getting nervous about" is whether the "froth" at year-end sets us up for a good 2024.

Joe Terranova declared, "The Santa Claus rally came at the end of October."

Joe said the "big thing" is to "try and identify why yields are not bouncing."

Jenny predicted the "rotation" that started at the end of October into small cap and value "continues."

Nevertheless, "There is a gameification of the market that's happened," Jenny said.

Weiss admits AI comment brought ‘pushback’ in emails

Viewers of Wednesday's (12/27) Halftime Report learned that Steve Weiss got somewhat tripped up by his AI comments a day earlier, when he said, "For all the hoopla about AI that we've seen, it's not really prime-time ready."

Weiss said Wednesday, "I said it yesterday, and I got- I got some pushback in emails that, you know, AI is- AI is not new. AI has been around for years and years. Amazon, they've used AI forever."

"Yeah but that's a different kind of AI," Judge said.

Jenny Harrington referred to some tech upstarts you'll never hear about again and said an article claims "Amazon created its own demise" (snicker).

Jenny not only threw water (as she always does) on the Magnificent 7 but this time is making 10-year calls, saying not to expect tech giants to lead the market "for the next decade." (Sure, why would anyone think the biggest moneymaking companies in the world would lead the market when Lumen Technologies is out there?)

Star guest Matt Powers joined the crew at Post 9 and barely got in a couple sentences about his dividend strategy before Jenny hijacked the conversation to discuss her own dividend strategy. Powers touted MDT and PNC and AEP. Jenny insisted there's a "real misconception" by the market about how GLP drugs are going to affect MDT.

Jenny tried to claim of the big banks, "I don't think you need a catalyst for these guys." Judge said "You kinda do," because you always hear that "they're so many times below book."

CNBC Chipster Kristina Partsinevelos, in fuchsia and boots, discussed current sentiment toward the semi space.

What about Ruth Porat?

Bryn Talkington got our attention early on Tuesday's (12/26) Halftime Report when she said she thinks the market is "setting up with a replay" of late 2017-early 2018.

Hmmmm ... a China trade war and obnoxious TARIFFS coming?

Judge rattled off suggestions by Ed Yardeni and others that maybe the biggest warning sign for the market is that there doesn't seem to be any. Bryn said, "The RSI is still incredibly over, overbought right now," but Bryn thinks January will be "somewhat of a continuation" until there's a "flushing out."

Steve Weiss at least said he expects "clear sailing" for the rest of this week.

Judge said a "former Fed economist" told him and Sara Eisen earlier that the "last mile" of the inflation fight will be the "easiest."

Weiss complained that bank real estate issues "are going to come home to roost." (He probably also thinks the "lag effect" of rate hikes still hasn't been felt.) Weiss said Jim Lebenthal (who was also on the show but not at Post 9) thinks "that's not a problem; we've been through that problem."

Weiss insisted, "That still is a major problem" because they "can't refinance" those buildings.

Judge wondered if the "near-term nature" of those issues has been "overstated." Weiss said that "intellectually," everyone gets the deficit problem, but as far as affecting the market, "I don't really see it." (Translation: The market got over David Stockman decades ago.)

However, Weiss said that just because the real estate issue is being raised "far in advance" doesn't mean the impact is "muted."

Joe Terranova stressed that the 10-year has "stayed" below 4%.

Weiss talked up TDG and predicted it will "keep on going." Joe said, "I like the purchase."

Bryn questioned why GOOGL has a relatively low multiple to MSFT and suggested lack of visionary management. Joe said "Bryn's right," that Alphabet trades at a discount "because there's no Tim Cook, there's no Satya Nadella." (Ah, but remember how much praise they got for hiring a CFO to run the quarterly earnings conference calls?)

Defending GOOGL, Weiss said, "For all the hoopla about AI that we've seen, it's not really prime-time ready." Weiss said ChatGPT is "usable" but "not where it should be" in terms of reliability. Weiss said Alphabet got more efficient over the last year just like META did.

Bryn lamented giving up on XBI in the 70s.

Bryn is actually in the uranium trade, the URNM, saying it's "all about China" because nothing is happening in the U.S. (Uranium was a very early Fast Money interest of Eric Bolling.) Joe said he sees energy in general "beginning to break out." Jim said he "can't believe" we're still waiting for the SPR "refill."

The Najarians’ new ad apparently airs during Power Lunch, probably because either it’s cheaper, or they don’t want to sponsor Halftime/Fast Money

On Friday's (12/22) Halftime Report, Judge asked Jim Lebenthal whether CLF is interested in another offer for X if the U.S. blocks the Nippon deal.

Jim said, "The price has to come down quite a bit."

Joe Terranova speculated that the rules of the JOET will determine it should "pare back the allocation to energy," but if so, Joe thinks that's the "wrong move." (When panelists try to outguess their own algorithms.)

Jim said "Norman (sic) Peltz" late in the program and was corrected by Judge and Stephanie Link.

Guy Adami on Fast Money sure is intrigued by the supposed Xi Jinping/Taiwan comment about "by any means necessary"; Guy has been bringing it up all week.

You’d think CNBC would have a new AI spellcheck program to avoid the same old mistakes with new graphics

Jim Lebenthal on Friday's (12/22) Halftime Report isn't interested in NKE. "For the next 6 months, it's probably dead money," Jim said.

Joe Terranova gave a cautionary speech about market swings: "With zero-dated options present, anything is possible on a day-to-day and an intraday basis. And we witnessed that on Wednesday," Joe said. (Perhaps Joe should catch up with the Najarians' $29.95 book that can be obtained for free.)

Joe again hung a $100 on MS.

Jim said "it's that simple" for BLK, "assets under management are going up."

Joe said Oppenheimer's 1,125 on REGN is a "long way to go."

Cris Collinsworth is a fine sportscaster; honestly, we haven’t thought of him as a ‘legend’

During Friday's (12/22) Halftime, Judge touted Cris Collinsworth's appearance ahead on Closing Bell to discuss how there's going to be an NFL game on Saturday on Peacock only. (See, the point of that interview is to hopefully sway some folks into subscribing to Peacock so they can see this game.)

On Closing Bell, Judge asked Collinsworth about the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers. But somehow, he didn't ask Collinsworth anything about Dave Tepper's Carolina Panthers and how such a Wall Street titan could have so much difficulty putting together a decent football team for 6 years running.

Collinsworth told Judge that Judge can be "our 3rd in the booth" anytime. (We've heard Pete Najarian announce college football. Not sure how Judge would do.)

Jim still doesn’t acknowledge streaming as a business quagmire, believes it’s a viable business (a/k/a smashed by reruns)

There were actually a lot of interesting conversations on Thursday's (12/21) Halftime Report, but we've gotta start with one of our favorite subjects — Jim Lebenthal and Paramount+ (and now, for the time being, "and maybe Warner Bros. Discovery").

Jim shrugged off concerns about PARA's debt, though he doesn't see the synergies with Warner Bros. Disovery. (He's not alone there. It's like merging PayPal with Block/Square/whatever it is.) (It's not like merging (take your pick) GM or F or Stellantis.) (If you think that idea is crazy ...) (Get Phil LeBeau on the line)

Jim said you have to just "get through the noise" around PARA and realize the stock is "undervalued" and "half of book value" at $15. (Translation: It's always about the P.E. ratio.)

Josh Brown though cut in to tackle that argument directly. Josh correctly said "the synergy is they have to shut down streaming."

Jim said he hears that but "respectfully" disagrees. Jim noted PARA said on the last call they're "past peak losses" (snicker) on streaming.

Josh said they're only past peak losses because they're just going to "milk the subscriber base" and give it "less" and will just "smash you over the head with reruns."

The Najarii have a new commercial (we’re guessing they’re not going to sponsor Options Action)

Judge opened Thursday's (12/21) Halftime Report stating that Jim Lebenthal, one of Thursday's panelists, has set a target of 5,100 for next year. (Judge did not ask Jim about Tom Lee's comments on valuation a day earlier on Closing Bell.)

Jim said his call "has everything to do with earnings growth." Judge said he's "surprised" that Jim's target is only expecting an 8% return.

Jim said, "It's the components of the markets that are gonna matter" (ah, that sounds like a bit too much parsing) and that "small caps and the economically sensitive sectors are where we wanna be" (that part's fine).

Bill Baruch said we could top 5,100 and small caps could lead; he thinks we're in a "Goldilocks environment next year."

Josh Brown in a classy comment, stated, "Jim directionally was more right than most of the people that we put in front of the public as vaunted, uh, chief, chief global strategists, chief equity strategists."

Josh did say that "8%'s a really safe, uh, call" because it's the average long-term return, but the markets tend to do higher or lower.

Bill sure doesn’t seem as alarmed as Eric Savitz about AAPL’s 3 straight quarters of negative growth

Judge on Thursday's (12/21) Halftime Report said Eric Savitz's new Barron's story on AAPL indicates "growth is gone" and there's "no clear plan for getting it restarted."

Josh Brown said Savitz makes a "really valid point." Josh said the question is, how long until the mixed-reality headset arrives, and it "could be a while."

Josh said he doesn't think Barron's "spent much time on" the "wild card" of an "AI app store."

Bill Baruch touted AAPL services. Judge pressured Bill to comment on the "3 consecutive quarters of negative growth" and whether the stock's gain this year is "justified."

Bill didn't really answer the question but said the stock will rise with flows into the market, and he touted services and next-generation products.

Kari Firestone said AAPL is trading at 26 times 2025 earnings and she doesn't think it's a buy and is not priced at a "very attractive" level. Josh cut in that AAPL's P.E. ratio should be a premium to the S&P.

"I don't even know an Android user," noted Jim Lebenthal, who questioned how many people are left to switch over to iPhones. Jim likened this Barron's cover to CSCO in 2001 (snicker), which Judge called "the S.I. jinx" (snicker). Josh protested that it's a "bearish cover!" Jim said the CSCO cover was bearish too and the stock hasn't recovered.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said she thinks AAPL is spending on AI and that AAPL is heavily a hardware company and when you "interpolate" (uh oh, we've never interpolated before) the multiple for services, "it's a really high number."

Boy, this Snapchat Plus sounds like a really big deal

Josh Brown on Thursday's (12/21) Halftime Report said he bought SNAP (snicker) and started off saying that the stock "not that long ago was $75 a share." (That's not the first time he's made the former-high argument.)

Brown said SNAP is nonprofitable but very good at building a "sticky user base." He also said there's an "undeniable" momentum for Snapchat Plus.

Bill Baruch said he may trim UBER and he's more likely to trim Big Tech before other names. (This writer is long UBER.)

Jim Lebenthal said "I'm not trimming it, but Boeing's at the top of the list of things to trim." Jim said there's room to run but that BA has gotten "rather enormous in my portfolio." (We get why they say that. We don't get how BA is going up or down based on the size of other positions in Jim's portfolio.)

CNBC's Gorgeous Chipster Kristina Partsinevelos joined the panel and said MU gains are tied to "the selling price climbing higher" rather than volume. Bill Baruch owns MU and suggested it reaches $100.

Kari Firestone thinks KMX is "near bottom for earnings." Kari made a "revvin' up" pun.

Judge said Cathie Wood has made ZM her "5th-largest holding." Josh, who bought ZM recently, said the stock is so cheap, "it would be very hard for them to disappoint." (We've heard that kind of argument many times before, unfortunately.)

Bill questioned Bernstein raising its CAT price target while downgrading the stock. Everyone conceded, as they always do, that it's hard trading DE stock.

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said she wants to buy NKE (it slid afterhours) but urged viewers to "wait 3 days!"

Tom Lee: No one should buy or sell a stock because of valuation

Well, whaddaya know.

Viewers of CNBC's Halftime Report get a daily torrent of valuation calls.

But on Wednesday's (12/20) Closing Bell, Tom Lee told Judge, "As you know, valuation isn't really why anyone should ever sell a stock nor why they should buy a stock. It really should be whether earnings momentum is accelerating."

This page is still waiting for someone on the Halftime Report to explain whether NVDA is/was a buy with a higher P.E. ratio ... or a lower P.E. ratio.

Rich Greenfield on the state of streaming

Rich Greenfield on Wednesday's (12/20) Fast Money said that putting 2 legacy media operations like Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount together doesn't fix the problem. "The problem is, they can't compete with Netflix. They need to stop. They need to shut down these streaming services or scale them back dramatically."

Rich added, "Paramount+ was a bad idea. Let's just call it what it is. It was a bad idea, and it's not working."

Karen Finerman said for balance sheet and other reasons, the idea of a Warner Bros. Discovery-Paramount tie-up "should be dead in the water." Rich should Warner should "go back to HBO" and that "Max is not a core brand; people don't know what it means."

Guest host Tyler Mathisen said he was employed by Time Warner for the first 22 years of his career, and "I cannot think of an enterprise that has gone through more bad deals than Time Warner/Warner."

Karen: Wednesday’s stock market may have been ‘out of steam’

On Wednesday's (12/20) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova started invoking emotions.

Joe said he doesn't have "deep affection" (snicker) for the individual stocks in his portfolio and he doesn't let "ego" get in the way of his stock decisions, but he "made a clear and obvious mistake in October" by selling MS in the mid-70s.

Now, he's not letting his "ego" keep him out of the stock, he's buying it back based on its "destination" of "beyond a hundred dollars."

Judge mentioned James Gorman's scheduled exit interview with David Faber. Joe said MS has great management and he might buy GS also but he doesn't want to lump those in with "money-center" banks, rather, MS and GS stand to benefit from the M&A and IPO scene.

Joe said DE has been a "disappointment," and he expressed concern about the company's outlook.

Meanwhile, Karen Finerman on Wednesday's Fast Money said she doesn't have a "great reason" to explain why the market went south on Wednesday other than "out of steam, maybe." Steve Grasso said it's a "1-day event."

Hours earlier on Halftime, the numbers weren't so bad. "It's definitely been a melt-up few weeks here," said Kari Firestone.

Kari said KMX has a "lot of upside potential" next year.

Brandon Copeland joined the Halftime set late to talk about the "December to Remember" shopping spree for hundreds of kids, and also athletes.org. Joe said of Copeland, "His heart is his biggest thing on that man."

Copeland picked the Baltimore Ravens for the Super Bowl. Moments later, CNBC's Dom Chu said he'll take the 49ers.

Joe says tech bears right now are ‘just as bearish as they were’ in December 2022

Joe Terranova, who had a big day Tuesday at NYSE with bell-ringing duties, on Wednesday's (12/20) Halftime Report made comparisons with last year.

Joe said, "If you think about it," a year ago at this time, there was "overwhelming bearishness" about the Magnificent 7, including from Joe, who admitted "I was part of it," but today, "they're just as bearish as they were then" and telling people that bulls are doing you a "disservice" in suggesting you stick with the names, as Joe generally is doing.

Joe's buying TWLO again, one of his early-pandemic winners, and quibbled with Judge over TWLO being "not profitable." Judge said "it's up 21% in a month." Joe predicted we'll see profitability in "coming quarters" and he wants to buy more in the "mid-60s." Kari Firestone said there probably will be a chance to buy on a pullback as the market rally won't continue "unabated."

Talking up PYPL, Kari admitted, "It's really been a terrible stock" and "any time I've ever said to buy it has been a mistake." That didn't stop her from suggesting it's got "potential" to be like CRM and ADBE and go from "hated" to "loved."

Judge said Wells Fargo downgraded CRM. Kari said the downgrade is "wrong."

Joe said he agrees with a ZS upgrade but he wouldn't buy it at Wednesday's level.

Joe rings bell at NYSE, leads celebration of 3 years of the JOET

Tuesday (12/19) was a day of celebration for CNBC's Halftime Report as longtime panelist Joe Terranova, after appearing on the show, was given the honor of ringing the closing bell at the NYSE.

Incredibly modest, aa always, Joe got really no extra attention during the day, except that the bell-ringing event brought longtime CNBC regular (well, OK, not as much in recent years) Gary Kaminsky to Post 9 for Judge's Closing Bell. Gary said he's known Joe "almost 40 years" and "I'm proud of him."

But actually, Gary got our attention with something else — an alternate take on the state of U.S. inflation that included the possibility of yet another hike.

Gary told Judge he'd been listening to the show's previous 36 minutes worth of guests, and "everybody is certain that the pivot, the pivot party, that the Fed has telegraphed they're gonna cut rates, and I even heard a couple of guests say that inflation is under control. Last I looked, inflation at 4%, compounded over 5 years, individuals lose a third of their purchasing power. That does not mean inflation is under control. Directionally, inflation is under control."

"Isn't that what matters more than anything else?" Judge asked.

"No. Because the Fed is not going to just sit tight at a 4% inflation rate," Gary said.

Gary contended that at 4%, the Fed will have to "look themselves in the mirror and make a determination — do we have to raise one more additional time to send a market- to the, to send a message to the economy that this is what they're trying to do. That's the only tool they have."

Meanwhile, Karen Finerman on Fast Money called the year-end stock rally "a chase" and "some sort of top." Karen also gushed at how well META has done and still is not outrageously expensive.

Hopefully the Najarians were covering their ears when Josh got to Point 4

In a fairly interesting year-end feature, Josh Brown on Tuesday's (12/19) Halftime Report offered 5 New Year's resolutions (we usually can't handle lists longer than 3, but we made an exception for this one) for stock investors, which included this advice:

1) Stop over-trading 2) Stop following "smart money"; 3) Stop listening to charlatans (editor's note: it helps to know who the charlatans are); 4) Stop the options obsession; 5) Stop obsessing over the macro.

Josh said not overtrading was a key to succeeding this year. (We're not sure how that's quantified, but he's probably got some iron-clad brokerage information that no one could possibly question.)

But Josh saved his sharpest advice for retail options traders. Josh said 43% of daily options volume is zero-day expiration, and it's only helping Ken Griffin. Josh said people lose money on options 3 ways, 1) overpaying relative to realized volatility (that one is way beyond our pay grade); 2) incurring "enormous bid-ask spreads," about 8%; "pros don't do that!"; and 3) "trading options into earnings" (the Najarii were always talking up that dynamic).

We're guessing several folks in the Fast Money/Options Action sphere would disagree.

Jenny says this was one of her 3 worst years ever even though performance was somehow ‘quite good’

Jenny Harrington on Tuesday's (12/19) Halftime Report said she just wrote in an email to a client in the morning that "when I reflect back on my career, this will be one of the 3 worst years I've ever had," not because of performance, which Jenny said was "quite good," but because of the "mental duress (sic first of those words redundant) that this year caused."

So having a "quite good" year caused her ... "mental duress"?

Joe Terranova suggested ADBE got an upgrade because with the deal called off, it could buy more stock, and that regulators did stockholders "a favor."

Josh Brown said he's keeping an eye on SNAP and doesn't think he's missed it yet. He cited something called "Snap Plus" (snicker) (apparently it's officially "Snapchat Plus") that costs $4 a month.

Judge points out that 2 of his panelists are dispensing utterly contradicting advice

From all indications, the beginning of Tuesday's (12/19) Halftime Report looked like things were gonna be sleepy.

Then Judge suddenly caught fire and made one of his best observations in months.

Judge and Josh Brown started things off by noting how sentiment has somehow matched the upward trajectory of the Dow chart. (Who woulda thought.)

Josh said the "everything else trade" is working and will do so into year-end.

Judge said we seem to be getting "some trickle" from cash into stocks. Joe Terranova stated, "I will say this: I think over the next several weeks, you wanna be on the offensive."

Joe said we're 1% from an all-time S&P high and even added that those who a year ago "pivoted in the direction of money market funds" for a 4.75% yield are "basically the New England Patriots at this point. You lost."

(Well, um, Joe's wrong about that. You're not the "Patriots" if you kept your money in money market funds. You did a perfectly fine strategy and came out ahead. You're the Patriots if you bought and kept reloading MRNA or certain other names.)

Joe bluntly stated that if you sit in those money market funds in 2024, it's "poor risk-management strategy" and "indicative of someone that's afraid of taking risk in the market." (And all across Wall Street, people were wondering, "Sign of the top?")

Judge though noted that people may find it "difficult" to buy after a 6-week tear and stated, "The time to add more risk was before." Josh Brown chimed in that "all (snicker) of the academic literature (snicker) suggests that there is a, a positive effect from buying after stocks have gone up. Joe wrote a whole book about it." (Hmmmmm ... wonder if Joe's book has become "academic literature.")

Despite what he said moments earlier about market gains boosting sentiment, Josh said Vegas was built on "the gambler's fallacy," meaning people seeing the roulette wheel turn up red, red, red, red and thinking "it's gotta be black now. That's not how it works. Every spin is independent of the one prior."

But Joe asserted that trends persist because "the predominance of market activity today is algorithmically generated."

Finally given a chance, Jenny Harrington teased, "I know where we're goin'," undoubtedly putting viewers on the edges of their seats.

Judge said, "Tell me where."

Jenny's answer was, "OK so I think things move asymmetrically" (Zzzzzzzz), which was the rationale for Jenny selling VFC in the prior week, which she'd just been touting 2 or 3 times in the last couple months.

Jenny said she bought VFC at 19; "there were no humans trading that thing down from 17 to 13." Jenny added that she has "tons of positions" that last week were "up 15 and 20%" and she thought, "hogs get slaughtered."

That's when Judge hit a home run: "I almost feel like Josh just made the case to do the exact opposite." (What does he mean, "almost." That's exactly the case Josh made.)

"No. Not at all. No no no," Josh insisted.

"He made at the macro portfolio level," Jenny explained, whatever that means.

"We don't disagree. We're- we're- I was building on what Joe was saying market-wide," Brown tried to claim. "Of course there are stocks that went up too much last week. Of course there are stocks that didn't go up enough. That'll always be the case. I'm saying there is a tendency on the part of people who haven't been around for a long time or have a short memory to look at new highs, look at, uh, look at stocks at 52-week highs or all-time highs, and conclude, 'I missed it.' That's all I'm saying. And that is not how it works."

Ah. So there are stocks that will go higher, and stocks that will go lower. And you should be holding the former, not the latter.

Josh gushes praise on Stephanie for buying GE years ago when Stephanie would’ve made more money buying NVDA or TSLA or META but for THE VALUATION

In a curious, virtually-holiday-week feature on Tuesday's (12/19) Halftime Report, Judge turned the program over to Josh Brown to talk about Brown's own declaration of PFE as the "chart of the year."

Brown said that distinction is because of how bad it is, "probably the worst individual stock story of 2023." Josh noted PFE "doubled and tripled down on COVID" while others were "racing to develop" the weight-loss drugs. But Josh wondered if ... we're talking about PFE here, which Josh apparently doesn't realize ... it could be "one of the best turnarounds of all time."

Jenny Harrington suggested that Josh picked PFE because "you like to pick fights with me" and was looking for "the worst one" in her portfolio.

(Pfizer, by the way, used to be mocked on the original Fast Money as a not-particularly-sexy stock.)

Jenny said she's owned PFE since 2007, initially buying at 24, trimming in 2019 around 40 and in 2022 over 50. (So she's made gobs of money on it and can't be blamed for owning it in 2023, OK, fine.) But Jenny said she liked what Josh wrote about PFE, that it's not a terrible company and should be viewed separately from its share price. Jenny said "consistency on earnings" (Zzzzzzzz) would turn the share price around.

Judge tried to support Josh's strong argument that PFE is simply not in the desirable spaces such as GLP drugs and is in the "wrong trend in health care." Jenny kept chirping, "Guys! Guys! It's not a winner takes all!"

Joe Terranova said, "I don't like Lilly; I love Lilly," stating it "trades like a biotech company." (He means it's going up, not doing what MRNA is doing.) Joe said that he's watching the ticker and PFE was "rallying as we speak." (If it's rallying on this discussion ... wow.)

Sounds like Joe thinks machines and not humans are better at picking stocks

In yet another example of Tuesday's (12/19) Halftime Report shouldn't sell stocks/should sell stocks advice, Judge asked Josh Brown about AMD being up 46% since Halloween.

Josh said "I should be trimming it; I just don't own enough of it where I would really be like massively hit by a, a drawdown." (That's an interesting rationale.)

But "there's no way the fundamentals of AMD just doubled, uh, in terms of how good they are," Brown said.

Brown said his most likely sell inclination would be when a stock has "gotten too big in the context of my overall portfolio."

Judge asked Joe Terranova about JOET component EXPE being up 57% since Nov. 1. Joe said, "I will respond to that by saying, no motivation whatsoever to move away from it."

Joe related how he sold AVGO personally a couple weeks ago and that became a "horrible move," while the JOET "didn't trim" AVGO, and look what the stock did.

Stephanie Link offered a lengthy rationale for not selling NKE. Jenny Harrington at one point said of NKE, "I'd be worried going in to next week. If it were mine, I would trim it."

Tyler Mathisen, guest host of Tuesday's Fast Money, said his son actually had to write a class report about NKE stock, "which meant I had to write a report about it."

Judge protests that he doesn’t ‘really know’ Lourenco Goncalves

Jim Lebenthal wasn't a regular panelist on Monday's (12/18) Halftime Report but beamed in late about the US Steel deal, which of course Jim's favorite stock (CLF) didn't actually win (and actually way underbid the prevailing market price).

Jim said CLF buying X would've been a "really cool deal" and that for Nippon, "there's hair on this deal," including that the "union's not on board" and there's antitrust concern.

Jim credited CLF nevertheless, stating the company's offer for X in August "re-rated the entire sector." Jim said CLF has outperformed the S&P for 5 years and "there is a lot more to come."

Jim told Judge, "I think you know Lourenco."

"I only met him once. I don't really know him," Judge said. (The funny thing about that is, Judge would probably boast that he "does" know David Tepper ... but still doesn't have the brass to talk about the Carolina Panthers during the Halftime Report.)

"His public image is not far from his private image," Jim explained. Who knew Lourenco has a "private image." Jim said, "He's gonna look for another deal." And if not, there's always the staple of Jim's stock arguments: the buybacks.

Joe: Repeat for Magnificent 7 would be ‘nightmare scenario’ for active managers

Joe Terranova raised a very interesting point on Monday's (12/18) Halftime Report, questioning how many people are really positioned for a repeat performance from the Magnificent 7.

Joe said the "nightmare scenario" for an active manager is that a year from now, we've had more significant outperformance from the Magnificent 7, and "nobody is going to position for that in 2024. ... That can happen again."

Jason Snipe said "I totally get what you're saying" because a lot of people were "offsides" tech this year. Jason still likes AMZN and that "Jassy is now fully enthrottled in the seat." (Hmmmm, not sure how convinced we are of that.)

Steve Weiss said what's "always haunting" (snicker) is whether this is the year regulators restructure any of the tech giants. But he thinks the regulators will "fail again."

Joe said Alphabet and META will benefit from "significant ad spending" next year with the Olympics and presidential election coming up.

Apparently endorsing NFLX, Jason Snipe said the streamer's crackdown on password sharing "has played out" and "hasn't gone as well as expected" but will "follow through" into 2024, and he said "they're building their free cash flow."

Mike gives the green light

At the top of Monday's (12/18) Halftime Report, Judge said Mike Wilson has a new note about equities appearing to have the "green light" and may be "entering a sweet spot," in case you were wondering what Mike's been thinking about stock direction in the last 36 hours.

"It does seem like a pivot by Mike," Steve Weiss conceded, stating Mike is a "good thinker" but that some thought he was "stubborn for a long time" and maybe "overstayed his welcome" in the bear camp.

Weiss said the market made a "more aggressive" pivot than Jay Powell did.

Weiss said "it just doesn't matter" when the Fed eases, only that it's on the table.

"There is a lot of optimism going forward," offered Jason Snipe, who cautioned that "we've moved a lot in the last few weeks."

Joe Terranova said there's $6 trillion in cash sitting in money market funds. Maybe exemplifying that, Liz Young's Final Trade was a 6-month T-bill. (Let's not get too excited.) #Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Liz said, "Right now the rotation play is still very much intact," in that people who had the "big winners" are rotating into "laggards."

Liz said the breadth of the rally has been "astonishing" (remember Josh Brown's "breadth thrust"/maybe it was "bread crust"?), though it would be "natural" for the market to take a little bit of it back.

Judge said the WSJ is reporting that more Americans own stock than ever before. Liz said it's "excellent" and "great" that there's so much "DIY investment," but it's a little "concerning" that many probably aren't diversified enough and "diversification does work" and "hopefully that lesson is being heard."

Weiss bluntly speculates about a world without Buffett

Asked on Monday's (12/18) Halftime Report about the Barron's 10 stocks list, Steve Weiss started with Berkshire and made a stark declaration about life spans, stating, "Ultimately, um, Warren Buffett won't be around, right, he's- he's getting up there, what happens after it ... we still don't really have a good feel for his successor."

So Weiss finds it "kind of interesting" that BRK.B would be on the Barron's list. Weiss also said he'd rather own a biotech basket than BNTX, and he thinks the rest of the list is Barron's "trying too hard to be different."

Joe Terranova said it's interesting that Weiss "didn't mention" BABA, but it's a "ridiculously cheap company" and "China might be the one area of the world that has the most significant comeback in 2024."

Weiss said of BABA, "I shorted the stock at 256; I covered way too early. And then I went long."

Jason Snipe said there might be an "opportunity" in biotech.

Weiss conceded Warren Buffett talks about succession "repeatedly." But, "A lot of people own this for Buffett." And if he's not there at BRK.B, "is it just a proxy for the S&P"?

Liz Young noted there aren't financials on the Barron's list, and just because something's been out of favor "doesn't mean it's due to do well." Liz said small caps "are an OK place to be in 2024" but they've had a "huge run."

C’s been at the $5 pre-reverse-split level forever

Jason Snipe on Monday's (12/18) Halftime Report called the PANW downgrade by Raymond James a "trimming call."

Joe Terranova said the call is "100% correct" even though he's long the name. "Sooner or later, you're- you're going to see a pullback." Joe suggested if you're "moving out" of PANW, try FTNT instead.

Liz Young said the regional bank issue is still "not solved," so big banks are a "better bet" next year. Steve Weiss said the downside in C is "relatively low" and the upside "can be significant," which is what C longs have been saying for literally 15 years. (Remember when Joe asserted that when C got back to $5, all kinds of institutions would buy it?)

CNBC Chipster Kristina Partsinevelos discussed semi cycles and how they're not all the same; some linked to AI and others to autos. Judge said Jonathan Krinsky is saying that the semi surge "feels more like a blowoff top." Joe said it doesn't feel like a blowoff top; there's "so much fundamentally there." Jason Snipe likes QCOM, citing PCs and handsets "bottoming."

Jason bought INTU saying there's "maybe another 10, 15%." Steve Weiss bought more FCX, his stock of December. He sees "a lot of upside" and a "hedge" if he's wrong about the economy. Joe owns FCX and called it a "decent position."

Dan Nathan made a great reference on Fast Money to the Triple Lindy. Tim Seymour bungled the conversation by attempting to define the term for viewers and misfiring badly on the movie's title.

Jim says not to start unloading during the next ‘momentary downturn’

On Friday's (12/15) Halftime Report, guest host Frank Holland said Barclays is predicting a "bumpy start to 2024" and that the market has been "borrowing from 2024 returns."

Jim Lebenthal, though, insisted "there's a lot of runway left." But Jim allowed that primary season in presidential politics brings out "extreme things" from candidates before things get "more sane" later in the year.

Jim said he has "trouble" with the question of whether the rally is "sustainable." Jim said it's "highly likely" there will be a "pause" or "pullback" of 2-4% in the next 1-3 weeks. However, he doesn't want a "momentary downturn" to cause people to "start selling like crazy." (But if they did, wouldn't that be a tremendous buying opportunity for everyone else?)

Jim advised looking at "the other 493 stocks."

Brian Belski said bears just "can't wait" for any downside.

JPM's Michael Feroli, the star guest of the show, said March is "probably premature" for a rate cut.

Feroli predicted QT "probably goes through the end of next year."

Kevin Simpson said his shop bought WM. (As Dalton says in "Road House," "All ya gotta do is watch my back ... and each others' ... take out the trash.") Kevin also bought more IBM (Zzzzzzzz). He started by mentioning dividend and forward multiple (Zzzzzzzzzz). (What are the new products.) Kevin also mentioned "synergy" from Red Hat. Jim said one thing that's made him "squirrelly" on IBM is the "debt on the balance sheet."

Stephanie Link said AVGO is up "27% in a week" but its 24-times multiple is "much below" NVDA's 40.

Jim again made his case for trimming NKE after such a big recent gain.

Jim was asked about the UBS upgrade of BA. "I am a believer," he said perhaps an homage to The Monkees.

Jim said he has "a lot of faith" in Jane Fraser's leadership at C. Brian Belski contended that C is "very underowned."

Brian Belski's Final Trade was actually a bank called "Glacier."

Jim sells NKE; Weiss buys DE

Thursday's (12/14) Halftime Report was basically an extended victory lap from the big Fed news of a day earlier.

Josh Brown opened the show talking up the IWN, saying it's up 18% in the last 30 days, but that's understandable, because it's lagged so much.

Josh said people should "chill out" when referring to the T-bills bringing 5%; Josh noted that's an "annualized" rate and that once you hold them for 6 months, they presumably won't be rolling over at 5%.

Rob Sechan predicted a "broadening out of markets."

Jim Lebenthal sold NKE and bought UNH. Jim said he held NKE for just 2½ months but got 27% in that time.

Josh said BAC has made a "pretty notable 180."

Josh said he's watching SNAP.

Rob said ADBE has been "kinda priced for perfection."

Steve Weiss wasn't a panelist but dialed in to report buying DE to get "exposure to cyclicals."

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said she's "surprised at the magnitude of this rally" and "I am short Treasurys" because big 10-year auctions are "not that far away." Steve Liesman agreed with Steve Grasso that Jay Powell made a "big change" in just 2 weeks.

‘Recall’??? ‘RECALL’????? Bryn sounds like Jim Mora talking about the playoffs

Judge went to Bryn Talkington on Wednesday's (12/13) Halftime Report for an assessment of the TSLA recall problem.

Making an Apple 15 phone overheating analogy, Bryn shrugged that "everyone's like freaking out" about the Tesla "recall" (she said, "I'm putting it in quotes") of 2 million cars, when it's just doing a "software update."

"I feel like you're being a little dismissive of the issue itself," Judge told Bryn, stressing it is "a lot of vehicles" and "not exactly the first time" there have been issues with Tesla's autonomous driving.

Bryn said her issue is with the term "recall," which implies that "cars are gonna have to go into the shop." Bryn said full self-driving is still "years out."

Judge said comparing the TSLA news to an iPhone software update "is a little bit of a stretch." Bryn said "humans are terrible drivers," so she gets the "want" to make driving safer and is "all for making this safer" and she isn't letting a "robot" drive her car and will "keep my hands on the wheel."

Evidently the Fed wasn’t so interested in keeping the market ‘honest’

Typically, pre-Fed Wednesday episodes of the Halftime Report tend to be pretty stale by about 3 p.m. Eastern time.

But this Wednesday (12/13) wasn't too bad.

Joe Terranova said he'd love to be able to ask Jay Powell the "first question," which would be, "In your internal discussions, were you at least thinking about thinking about cutting rates?" (Answer: Obviously, they were.) (This review was posted overnight Wednesday-Thursday.)

Steve Liesman pointed to the "lousy" CPI component of "shelter" and said his "concern" is that being data-dependent, the Fed may be making decisions on "bad" or "outmoded" data.

Steve said Jay Powell needs to "declare neutral" before he starts declaring cuts.

Bryn Talkington offered, "We still have this bias of the last 15 years that all of a sudden we're gonna just cut rates and go back to these go-go years." But Bryn said we've actually averaged Fed funds being "a solid 240 basis points above CPI."

Steve Weiss suggested Powell could remove the comment about how they could still hike, which would be the only phrase that would be "game-changing" for the market. (Or just "3 cuts next year.")

Sarat Sethi said "the other, smarter Steve" (meaning Liesman) is correct that if Powell says he's going to "neutral," that would help the market, because going "straight to down" would make the market wonder what it's missing. (Hmmmm ... OK.)

Joe raised the possibility, however distant, that Powell says another rate hike is still "in play" (snicker). Judge said if Powell says that, we'll have to wonder "what are they possibly looking at."

Then Judge clumsily questioned why the Fed would talk about "more cuts (sic)" and "why would they do that?" before the panelists corrected him to "more hikes."

Weiss said the Fed may do that to "keep the market honest."

Joe says UBER can reach the 70s ‘easily’

Judge on Wednesday's (12/13) Halftime Report said Truist hung a $600 3-year target on MSFT.

Steve Weiss said he doesn't know if it'll get to $500 or $600, but that's "the direction it's going."

Joe Terranova said targets like $600 make you think it's not even a $4 trillion company but a $5 trillion company, that once we got through $1 trillion or $2 trillion, "there's no more ceiling." (Hmmmmm ... can it go to infinity?)

Joe made the case for GOOGL having more "upside potential" than AAPL based on "generative AI." (This writer is long GOOGL.) Joe suggested AMZN comes back "strongly" in 2024. Weiss said he agrees on GOOGL but wonders about the impact of the Epic case vs. Alphabet.

Bryn said RBLX has done "really well," up about 45% this year. But she said it'll take consistent free cash flow to get above 50.

Judge said JPMorgan made a "top pick" call on UBER and gave it a 72 target. (This writer is long UBER.) Sarat Sethi said he'll start trimming in the "earlier part of the year" for tax reasons. Joe said he bought UBER at 36 (which doesn't help anyone now) and that Uber is "mobility," but he trimmed last Friday because it just got too large in the portfolio. However, he does think it can reach the 70s "easily."

Weiss says Joe’s got exposure to ‘450 stocks’

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (12/13) Halftime Report said homebuilders have had a good year because of the tight housing market and are in the "sweet spot" for the unwinding of the "transactional recession."

Steve Weiss suggested the builders are a "proxy" for interest rates. He said they're always at 10 times earnings, so right now they're "fairly valued."

Sarat Sethi said JNJ got downgraded because there's "no short-term catalyst."

Sarat touted TMO. (Joe used to occasionally mention that one.)

Joe predicted VRTX "continues to march higher."

Joe said he'll continue to own GLD for the "degree of insurance" for "further economic contraction" and "disinflation."

Bryn Talkington said she "totally" understands reasons to own gold and that there can be "10 different reasons" why it should rally but it "tends to do none of the above."

Weiss said FCX is another way to play housing, commercial construction and EVs (snicker), though he conceded the latter may "continue to disappoint."

Talking about all-time high stocks, Joe touted V and MA. Joe also mentioned "Palo Alto" and said he was "surprised" at the strength in BKNG given turbulence in the Middle East. Weiss doesn't own V or MA or COST because they're not cheap enough but he does own the JOET, "and I have a lot of exposure there, including to the other 450 stocks he owns."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said Wednesday's market reaction felt "a little bit heavy." Carter Worth said 3½=5% is OK but if we go below 3½%, then "we have a problem."

Weiss admits: ‘Yes, the bear case is tired’

On Tuesday's (12/12) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss said the CPI "gave the market what it wanted" and, assuming PPI is "the same," then we can rally through month's end. Judge wondered if the rally can go beyond year-end. Weiss said it could, but people may sell Big Tech "after the first of the year" for tax reasons.

Shannon Saccocia made Weiss' typical argument, that the rate hikes still (somehow) are "not fully transmitted through the economy" (snicker).

Judge haggled with both Shannon and Jenny Harrington over how being "neutral" on stocks, Judge noted, is not a "positive."

Jenny said we'll be working down the 2011-2021 "sugar high" of 16% annual returns for a long time.

Josh Brown said a switch was flipped on stocks around April and May and the result has been a "7-month rampage." (Well, we checked our ledger for September-October; those months weren't exactly a "rampage.")

Josh said Germany's Dax is at "10-year highs."

Judge asked Weiss if the bear case is "tired."

"Yes, the bear case is tired," Weiss admitted, but he still sees more "negative catalysts" (snicker) (probably the lagging effect of rate hikes) than positive ones, including regional bank issues.

No debates this time between Jenny & Weiss on the ‘horrendous’ (Chinese) economy (see below)

Steve Liesman on Tuesday's (12/12) Halftime Report delivered the old saw about how (not an actual quote) JAY POWELL ISN'T GOING TO FLINCH AT ALL NO SIR BECAUSE THIS AIN'T GONNA BE THE 70S AGAIN!!!! (Wow. Because he's not going to let an incredibly fluky, completely obvious onetime inflation hike that isn't possibly sustainable depress our economy for the next 10 years. #financialheroes)

Josh Brown said "mortgage rates have been crashing" and suggested Barron's cover story is a contraindicator and said Z had gotten into bad businesses and that's "all over now" and he may buy, he hasn't already because it's been in an "absolute rampage for the last couple of weeks."

Bill Baruch said ORCL just had its "2nd bad quarter in a row" and the stock is on his "chopping block."

Steve Weiss called HUM a "very reasonable purchase" at Tuesday's prices.

Jenny Harrington took a victory lap on buying RIO at 46, but she's not selling; "we're in this for the long haul."

Judge said Goldman Sachs reiterated a sell on KSS, one of Jenny's favorites. Jenny claimed her shop determined it's worth maybe $30 or $40. Jenny thinks there's still "a lot of upside" in VFC.

Near the end of the show, Jenny offered some dividend picks for 2024, but there were so many, we can't list them all.

Too much white background in CNBC graphics overhaul, harder to read than it should be

Given that Monday was a momentous day in the history of business television — CNBC changed around its graphics and set backdrops (which were already in the process of changing) — we had hoped to go to town with a bunch of pictures and analysis.

But real life kinda got in the way at CNBCfix HQ, so, other than a stray comment or two, that'll all have to wait until later in the week.

Joe Terranova announced at the top of Monday's (12/11) Halftime Report that "This is without question a very huge week." (Probably the hugest week since the ... last huge week.)

Joe said he looked it up, in 2021, from Dec. 20 to Dec. 31, "the S&P 500 rallied 5%." So Joe says there's "precedent" and "possibility" for the same thing happening now. (There have probably been Dec. 20 to Dec. 31 stretches in other years that lost 5%, so maybe there's a "precedent" for that too.)

"Clearly this is a huge week," agreed Jason Snipe, who said Jay Powell "needs to thread the needle."

Jim Lebenthal offered, "The thing that would worry me is if the CPI comes in hot tomorrow." But Jim doesn't expect that.

Joe again predicted that with a 10-year under 4%, "I think you're gonna see a lot of capital coming out of cash, into risk assets."

Judge said Dubravko Lakos is actually at "4,200 (snicker) for next year" and Mike Wilson is at 4,500 (snicker).

Joe said that unlike Ari Wald, he doesn't think regional banks will take the market to new highs, but Joe does prefer regional banks to money-center banks.

Jim said he wonders if GOOGL's multiple makes it a "value stock." (This writer is long GOOGL.) Jim said that NVDA at 24 times forward earnings has "a lot of cushion" on the downside. (Apparently if P.E. ratios are a certain number, the stocks aren't supposed to fall very far.)

Jim affirmed that he bought NKE a couple months ago at 94. But he's concerned it's getting "a little expensive." Joe praised Steve Weiss, who wasn't on Monday's show, for a "good job" discussing the China recovery last week.

Discussing the OXY deal and energy, Joe asserted that "supply is overwhelming demand right now."

NFL/college football great Eddie George joined the Post 9 set to talk about being a financial advisor and a football coach.

On Fast Money, discussing M, Guy Adami and Tim Seymour traded quotes from "Wall Street." Tim somehow had a great line, stating, "Macy's best work was probably back when that movie came out."

Weiss was referring to China when he said ‘horrendous’

(Sigh ...)

These are the types of conversations that give this page an extra half-hour of work.

Steve Weiss on Friday's (12/8) Halftime Report was saying the U.S. economy isn't that great, then called the Chinese economy "horrendous."

Jenny Harrington, either not hearing Weiss' entire statement or not paying attention, apparently thought Weiss was calling the U.S. economy "horrendous."

And Weiss unfortunately didn't correct Jenny (and Judge sat on his hands), instead choosing to argue anyway with Jenny about the U.S. economy, which he never actually said was as bad as Jenny indicated he said it was.

Got all that?

It started when Joe Terranova said he's "not takin' any profit in Lululemon."

"I sold LULU way too long ago," Weiss admitted.

Jim Lebenthal suggested letting the "momentum run in Nike" and suggested that company's potential in China.

Weiss said the consumer isn't as healthy as people say, and then he said, regarding NKE, that the Chinese economy is "horrendous."

"I don't know what you're reading, Steve," said Jenny Harrington. "What are you reading that the economy's horrendous."

"I'm reading facts," Weiss said.

Jenny said she's hearing from 15 financial services CEOs and it's "not horrendous," and she told Weiss, "Maybe you're self-selecting what you're reading for a particularly negative scenario."

Weiss protested that it sounds like Jenny is saying CEOs of publicly traded companies "are out there telling a positive story on their fundamentals," while Weiss is looking at "data" that are the "leading indicators."

Weiss said Jamie Dimon "has never been as negative." Jenny said, "Jamie's always negative!"

Thankfully, a commercial finally came.

Tom Lee one of the few people still saying ‘FANG’ (a/k/a Judge sure lost interest fast in Zuck’s stock sales)

Judge on Friday's (12/8) Halftime Report aired Tom Lee's clip from Closing Bell a day earlier in which Tom said people may fade the FANG multiple expansion in favor of the financials' multiple expansion.

Jim Lebenthal said he "completely" agrees with Tom. Steve Weiss though shrugged that "there's gotta be a lot clearer path to the Fed cutting rates" for Lee's theory of financials, industrials, small caps and then tech to work out, and that Weiss doesn't believe a soft landing is "assured."

Judge brought in Steve Kovach to discuss the Google Gemini demo and how the presentation was "edited." (This writer is long GOOGL.) Steve said the company says it's supposed to be an "illustrative version of what Gemini could be like when it's finally out."

Judge asked Alphabet long Jim what he thinks. Jim said the market is "synthesizing" the opinions of Brad Gerstner (skeptical) and Josh Brown (optimistic) on Google and meanwhile, GOOGL has a 20x forward multiple while MSFT is at 30x.

Weiss said Alphabet's got a lot of money to play catch-up in AI or other endeavors and "there will always be a gap between the valuation in Google and Microsoft." Weiss added, "This is just noise today."

Jenny Harrington doesn't see "significant downside" nor "significant upside" in Big Tech names. But names in her portfolio such as SCHW and URI of course have lower P.E. ratios.

Still nothing from Weiss about mighty MRNA

Neither Judge nor anyone else on the panel was stationed at Post 9, which meant it was back to stale pandemic-era home video setups, including Joe's 3-number room, (sigh), while Judge was getting the whiz-bang kaleidoscopic treatment at Englewood Cliffs.

Joe Terranova suggested you may want to trim from the "crowded" parts of the market.

Joe sold half of JPM, UBER and AVGO. Joe said it's because "the chase for performance is over" and cited the "inability to break below 4%" in the 10-year in the morning. Joe said he's interested in redeploying that cash into possibly NKE, TWLO, MS, GS and even RF.

Judge noted Joe's repeated mention of 4% on the 10-year and wondered if Joe is "impatient," and "why don't you give it a chance."

Jim Lebenthal said the market needed a strong labor report and got it, even if the average hourly earnings were a little higher than the Fed wants. Jim said it was a "pretty good report."

Steve Weiss said the fact stocks weren't slumping with rates rising suggests a "continued rally through the end of the year."

Weiss said the Fed meeting will be an "afterthought and a sideshow" to the CPI and PPI.

Jenny Harrington said she sees a "change of leadership" in the market, which is basically what Jenny always says whenever tech is the leader.

When was the last time you heard someone talk about Threads?

Jim Lebenthal on Friday's (12/8) Halftime Report got a chance to trumpet PARA, which he said "obviously" was oversold, and Jim asserted, "M&A is the way out of the morass here." (What happened to all the great business fundamentals.)

Jim said ORCL's multiple is "quite forgiving."

Joe Terranova said to buy COST on a dip.

The last 10 minutes of the show are generally where Jenny Harrington gets to make a speech about the next great low-P.E. value stock. Friday it was CARR, with a "12 times EBITDA multiple."

Jenny's Final Trade was a stock that costs 3 dollars and 93 cents, based on its dividend.

Jim said RIG has been good for 2 years but "terrible for the last 3 months," though he "strongly" believes in the company.

Other than NVDA’s chart, AI is a boring subject

At the top of Thursday's (12/7) Halftime Report, GOOGL was the topic and Josh Brown got some jabs in at Brad Gerstner; "how mad is Brad today," Brown asked. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Bryn Talkington said Alphabet merely "closed like a sentiment gap" in AI.

Bill Baruch said he expects AAPL to hit a "new record high here, I mean, as we close out the year."

Josh said he bought a little AMD but didn't buy enough. He said AMD can make "inroads" but doesn't have the same "ecosystem" as NVDA.

Bryn Talkington "wouldn't give up" on energy but cautioned that China will remain a headwind.

Bill cautioned that the market may be disappointed if it expects a March rate cut.

Josh said mortgage rates are "crashing."

Bill talked up his recent buy of DPZ and its strength in "search analytics" as a result of its "loyalty program." Josh said $400 has been resistance for DPZ for 18 months; he thinks it's about to punch through.

Bryn said the market likes ABBV's deal; she thinks it's "very positive."

Bryn said "I just don't wanna be in the financials." Josh said, "If you have a bubble next year, Goldman'll do great."

On Fast Money, Tim Seymour clumsily stated that "the recession is now consensus," then moments later backpedaled and said, "Sorry, no recesssion ... no recession is now consensus."

Is 20% a ‘disaster’ (a/k/a Actually we can think of other things that would be a worse nightmare for Jim than NVDA slumping)

In what seems a bit of a vote for the Cathie Wood stocks (haven't heard much about those lately), Anastasia Amoroso on Wednesday's (12/6) Halftime Report suggested a couple times that the unprofitable tech trade, namely companies that "didn't have a chance in this rate environment," may get a bounce.

Anastasia said that if the Fed starts cutting, that "lifts a lot of boats," so it looks like the rally could broaden.

Anastasia explained that "everyone got into this market" and said AAII bears are "basically nonexistent," which suggests some "consolidation lower" in December.

Anastasia also asserted, "The market tends to move higher 6 months ahead of the rate cut."

Joe Terranova suggested a lot of the "chasing" in the market this fall "has already been done."

Joe contended that "seasonals have worked remarkably well" and said the Russell's seasonally strong time is from "January through Valentine's Day." Judge demanded to know who's going to sell AAPL or MSFT. Joe said the "crowded" trades will ease a bit as people buy the "neglected."

But Joe said the Russell won't have the earnings in January to "defeat" this year's leadership, so gains early next year will be a "false start."

Jason Snipe said we had a "magnificent move in November." But he doesn't see a "tremendous impact" from the December Fed meeting. Jason thinks there's still bullishness to be "unlocked" next year.

Jason suggested "growth is still in vogue."

Jim Lebenthal contended that Wednesday's trading looks like that "long-awaited rotation," though he conceded rotation calls have been "folly."

Jim claimed that momentum in the "unloved sectors" may actually get people's attention. Judge told Jim that he better not hope for that, as Jim bought into NVDA "late" and that a selloff in Big Tech would be Jim's "worst nightmare."

Jim said he's not predicting a "disaster" in Big Tech but maybe dips of 10, 15, 20%. Judge suggested 20% is a "disaster."

Joe said he spoke to "a lot of people in fixed income" about the impact of the yields below 4%, and people told him that under 4% is "closer to the bottom" of the range this year (seems like anyone could simply acquire that information by looking at a chart), which means a lot of funds will move from Treasurys into risk, Joe said.

Jim said he's not unaware that there's "danger out there" if there's too much of a slowdown.

If they’ve had 5 layers of management, how come CNBCers have been recommending it often since 2009 (a/k/a Mel’s impressive grammar catch)

Jim Lebenthal on Wednesday's (12/6) Halftime Report said Jane Fraser has been cutting "5 layers of management." Jim said Jane got "absolutely no honeymoon."

Anastasia Amoroso said tech is a "cleaner story" than financials. Joe Terranova indicated he likes MS and BAC and GS more than JPM.

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said banks are facing "tighter regulations" but may have a little success on "pushback." Karen said C has been restructuring since "maybe earlier than 2007." Karen said the C valuation is "always astounding to me" and so it's "too appealing for me to own none."

Dan Nathan said big banks are "like utilities now."

Steve Grasso said JPM is still the outperformer but like Dan, he doesn't see "tremendous upside" in this space.

Missy Lee impressively corrected herself when she first said "less than" and changed it to "fewer" without skipping a beat.

Back on Halftime, Anastasia said a rebound in private equity fundraising would give APO a boost.

CNBC Chipster Kristina Partsinevelos spoke from San Jose about AMD's new AI chip. Joe Terranova said he doesn't want to "chase the semis."

Jason Snipe touted AZO, which just had a good report; Jason made the since-the-show's-inception-and-earlier point that the "average age of a car is 12½ years," which ... psssst ... as far as we can tell, has been the case for about the last 20 years, maybe more. (But if it works as a stock catalyst, so be it.)

Jim said he is acknowledging that DE is a "battleground stock." He said it's got a "very low bar" and, of course, mentioned valuation, which Jim said is "very forgiving" at 12x forward. (So apparently that means stocks with a 12x forward multiple are going up.) (But not as can't-not-own-some as C's valuation.)

Joe Terranova said he hopes Jim is right, but "I think the ag cycle is over."

Jim predicted oil will trade in a range of $60 to $80. Jim said the SPR "just absolutely needs to be filled." (We think the average age of all the cars in the SPR is probably about 12 years.)

Addressing DHI and LEN being in the JOET, Joe said, "Sometimes, momentum actually works."

A day without GM

Right after the A Block on Tuesday's (12/5) tepid Halftime Report, Judge brought in Andrew Wellington to Post 9.

Judge said Andrew's "value-based mutual fund" is up 19% in 2023. Judge joked that "I look at your holdings, and I'm like, I don't know, this guy looks like a growth investor hiding out as a value guy. I mean you have those kinds of stocks."

Andrew said "value and growth aren't always the best labels," but his "value bona fides are unquestionable" as his portfolio's average P.E. is 10. (Which of course means the stocks are going up, because the average P.E. ratio is 10.) (Or maybe it means the stocks can't go down very far, because the average P.E. ratio is 10.)

Wellington touted EXPE, which gave Joe Terranova a chance to say that it's not highly exposed to the Middle East. (As well as saying that the JOET bought EXPE under $100.) Who knew. A value stock with "momentum."

Wellington also touted URI.

Josh Brown bought IOT as "potentially, um, a future giant (snicker) in its space." He said it's in "prime position to really be the internet of things play."

Brown also had to trim 10% of his UBER stake. (This writer is long UBER.)

Josh conceded how PYPL got "hammered" since the pandemic eased but "most of that is now in the stock."

Joe predicted January will be about "rotating," from the "crowded to the neglected," with the latter being small caps. But Joe kept cautioning that the first couple months of 2024 may not dictate the rest of the year.

Joe also added gold. "Anytime gold dips, I will buy," Joe said.

Jim, Weiss agree!
ALK paid ‘too much’

Fairly late in Monday's (12/4) Halftime Report, Judge asked ALK long Jim Lebenthal about the ALK-HA announcement.

"I don't like this deal," Jim stated, saying Alaska is "paying too much," though he conceded Alaska "could've done a lot more damage than they're doing," which is a curious type of bright spot. (Actually it made us wonder ... what else could ALK have done ... make an offer for GM? ...)

Jim did say the market's selloff of ALK is "way overdone," which is generally what longs say about every stock that falls, and that the deal does open "intrinsic routes to Asia" to ALK.

Jim suggested the deal feels like "empire-building."

Sarat Sethi said it's yet another deal in the airline space, a sector that doesn't seem to be popular at the White House.

Steve Weiss said that based on HA stock, it looks like the deal will get done. But Weiss said that kind of premium for a "non-biotech company" is "too much."

Karen Finerman joked on Fast Money that "arb" rules include "No airline deals." Guy Adami suggested keeping a bullish eye on DAL at 38.

Yes, a lot of folks need $185 million to buy something

Judge opened Monday's (12/4) Halftime Report saying Zuck is selling and Bezos and some NVDA insiders recently did too and asked Liz Young in a manner that betrayed that he doesn't believe his own question in the slightest, "Is tech too toppy."

Liz actually suggested with a straight face, "Well maybe they had big purchases to make."

Steve Weiss said you have to "take notice" when they sell, but what Zuck is selling is a "pimple" and "really nothing," and he's got a "big foundation."

Jim Lebenthal said insider sales to most investors are an "ambiguous signal," while Jim said insider buying is a "clear positive signal," a common refrain on CNBC since the channel's inception.

Judge questioned why insider selling isn't given the same significance as buying. "We would frame it differently if this was insider buying," Judge insisted. Jim said there isn't any reason for buying stock other than being bullish on the company.

Stephanie Link dialed in on what seemed like a 1970s AT&T landline and said Zuck's sale is no big deal but it's "prudent to take profits" in META.

Jim touted the PEG ratio of NVDA. "I think it is cheap," Jim concluded.

Later On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said of NVDA, "I don't think the valuation's crazy."

Still nothing on mighty MRNA

Sarat Sethi on Monday's (12/4) Halftime Report said he's "surprised" that UBER is up 5% on the S&P news given that the news seemed kind of already priced into the stock.

Steve Weiss said he bought UBER shares Friday afternoon on the S&P news; he thought it was "fully discounted" in the stock but he didn't see any "downside" in buying.

Sarat talked up PEP, which was touted in Barron's (slow news day; Judge was reaching), and said "I know Weiss is gonna jump on me on this one." Sarat said earnings growth is "baked in" and it's a "dividend aristocrat."

Judge pointed out that Weiss had told the show's producers that "you're paying more for Pepsi than you are for Meta on slower growth." Weiss said PEP is a "quality company" but that META is cheaper.

Jim Lebenthal said "the momentum is clearly here" in NKE and you can "let this ride," though with the recent gains, he's not sure about adding more.

Sarat cited GM's buyback, dividend and how it's "slowing back" EV initiatives and said there's "probably" been short-covering in the name. Jim said technicals support the stock now, and "momentum in the name right now is very strong." Jim also mentioned the buyback. Which means it was another day of touting GM based on financial engineering and not mentioning a single product.

"I've been adding to bitcoin," Weiss said, citing nothing but "momentum" in the trade. Karen Finerman on Fast Money affirmed she's long bitcoin, an "unusual" position for her investment style.

Our expectations for Judge's humor have been sliding for years, but he did have a good one during Final Trades in a "character" reference to Weiss/Dracula.

On Closing Bell, Rick Rieder told Judge that the country has to get a handle on debt.

Have to admit, Weiss is right, Jim apparently wasn’t listening to what he said

It didn't take long for Jim & Steve to tangle on Friday's (12/1) Halftime Report.

Judge opened the program harping on the 4.25% yield on the 10-year.

Steve Weiss said "this is one of those situations" where "mediocre" news is "good" news.

Weiss said the ISM was "a little disappointing," and the market was "keying" on the prospect of the Fed considering easing sooner than previously anticipated. Weiss said he's surprised there hasn't been more of a "digestion period," but he sees a "green light" into year-end.

Jim Lebenthal, also stationed at Post 9, said "the sun is shining and, uh, I totally disagree with Steve," and that got our attention, because we didn't think Weiss had said anything polarizing in his opening statement.

Jim said he doesn't think the 10-year is at 4.25% because the economy is weakening, rather, it's because people are employed and spending, and the market Friday wasn't climbing on a weak ISM report, that's "exactly wrong," it was climbing because consumers are "shifting to buying again," which is quite a pronouncement based on Friday morning's trading. (Which didn't reflect quite what Weiss said, but whatever.)

Weiss chuckled, "He wasn't listening to what I said." Weiss said the ISM number was an "example" and wasn't "the only reason for the market rallying," but it's because Powell "hasn't gotten more hawkish" and it's "seasonally" a typically strong time for the market.

Judge said Savita's new note says we're past "peak uncertainty on inflation and rates."

Shannon Saccocia, who had a very quiet show from the living room, mentioned hopes that the Fed will cut because they "can" not because they "need to."

Rob Sechan suggested "we're overextended" but could get "more overextended."

Sorta like John Rogers, Rob said it's "hard to believe" that tech will have "super" earnings drivers next year like it had going into this year. (Ah, last year at this time, lots of people didn't like tech because it was in a slump; this year, some people don't like tech because it's done so well.)

Judge again — briefly — got the echo effect talking to Rob, but producers got it cleared up almost immediately.

Brian Belski at one point said it's a "tough day" for Weiss but that Judge was being "very righteous and nice" to Weiss.

Jim says tech won’t come down but rest of market will rally up to it

Early on Friday's (12/1) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal made a curious comment that Judge didn't even notice.

Jim claimed that there's evidence of "very strong reason for this rally to broaden, uh, and the rest of the market to catch up with where tech is without having tech come down."

Think about that for a moment.

The rest of the market is going to "catch up" with tech.

That's close to what John Rogers told Judge on Wednesday.

But Jim didn't make the mean reversion argument of Rogers, rather, Jim said tech won't have to come down.

That sounds kind of ... too good to be true ... can't lose in this market ... that "value" investors are going to surge forward, while those hanging onto tech are going to do OK.

Steve Weiss didn't really opine on that possibility but did say that growth remains in tech, but rallies "tend to broaden out," though he doesn't know if this one will.

Judge re-aired Brad Gerstner's comments a day ago on John Rogers/tech. Weiss said Brad and John have "different strategies."

Jim said this is a "great debate" and that Brad is "very wise," but Brad "left out" valuation (snicker), and "I know people, when I say that, some people will say, 'Yeah, valuation doesn't matter.'" Jim said it does matter in that non-tech companies have been "outearning" and "outperforming."

Jim hasn’t mentioned a single GM product and still won’t provide a catalyst for the stock (aside from the usual, ‘it’s too cheap’)

It seems like it's sorta been GM Week on the Halftime Report, as Jim "All In" Lebenthal on Friday (12/1) was talking up the stock again, stating "share buybacks matter at exactly this point in time."

Steve Weiss wondered "is now the wrong time to start a buyback, a massive buyback, when you don't know, if the economy is going to go into recession or not."

"I hear you," Jim told Weiss.

Weiss said it's not only GM doing buybacks, "the major tech companies have all been buying ... so you can't buy based on that story." And with GM, it's not "organic growth," it's "financial engineering," Weiss asserted.

"Sorry, that's just not right," Jim responded.

"Of course it's right," Weiss said.

"It's not 'of course,' it's 'of course' you're wrong," Jim said.

Jim repeated his stat from earlier this week that GM over the last decade averaged 6½ billion (correctly said "billion" this time, not "million") in earnings and now is up to 9½ billion. Jim said buybacks may not always be a good thing, but GM has "too much cash" and "there's only so much they can do with it," (an interesting argument; couldn't they buy AAPL shares like Buffett does?) and you can "extend" that to CLF and WYNN.

"You still have to go to where the money's gonna go," Weiss said, and he said "the money's not going to Cleveland-Cliffs," he said that company announced a buyback a while ago and the stock is still "substantially" below its highs. Weiss said GM still has "major financial commitments to EVs."

Whatever happened to the iPad (a/k/a Remember when Toni Sacconaghi argued that AAPL needed to be a subscription service, like doing Rent-a-Center for your iPads instead of buying them)

Rob Sechan, who had a fairly quiet show (almost as quiet as Shannon Saccocia) on Friday's (12/1) Halftime Report, sold SWKS in a move to reduce "economic sensitivity" names and trim some tech overweight.

Rob also sold UPS. Rob cited the "slowing economic environment" and "elevated costs." But Rob slightly ran afoul of Judge when he explained how he bought CMA to get overweight the financials.

Judge wondered how Rob can make the case for CMA if he's concerned about the economy. Rob said it's partly because "yields are coming in," and look at the price of CMA, you can't buy stocks in a "vacuum."

Rob also sold ABBV, a "weaker performer" in the pharma space.

Rob also curiously bought more BABA, "an underrated grower at a reasonable price" and a "bit of a turnaround story." That's what Steve Weiss thought earlier this year.

Meanwhile, Jim Lebenthal said Baird's $300 target for BA is "very feasible" if there's "no operational mishaps." (Wonder how anyone can possibly know if there's another Boeing operational mishap on the way.) Jim started to mention David Calhoun, prompting Weiss to talk about Calhoun being chairman; Judge said "I don't wanna debate that anymore, anyway," even though Judge is the one who extended the conversation.

When’s Judge going to update us on the indoor golf league standings?

Late into Friday's (12/1) Halftime Report, Judge asked Jim Lebenthal about reports of Apple and Paramount "bundling" (as opposed to "bungling") their streaming services.

"Obviously this is good news," Jim stated, before adding, "The market is coming around to the fact that things were not as dire as they thought at Paramount."

But Judge said the stock's been a "disaster" in 2023.

Brian Belski joined the show remotely; among his new buys are DIS and regional banks, saying he was "funding some of that" by selling NFLX that he bought when it was, of course, a lot lower.

Judge asked Belski why he bought DIS. "I still think Bob is gonna get this thing right," Belski said, predicting Iger creates "some sort of a scarcity proposal" (snicker) and has talked about "cutting content" (that's an interesting approach for a streaming company).

(So basically, Wall Street has written off DIS growth and just wants it to spend no money.)

Judge said UBER got a Call of the Day, from BTIG with a $70 target. (This writer is long UBER.) Steve Weiss said he bought more Thursday. Weiss said the P.E. isn't cheap but it's "cheap on the growth." (Which is another way of saying, any stock, no matter the P.E., might do better or worse than what the P.E. supposedly indicates.)

(Late in the day, Steve Kovach reported that UBER was added to the S&P 500.)

Judge noted DIS reinstated its dividend, which happened late Thursday.

Mike Santoli either didn't have a mike, or his mike wasn't working, so it sounded like he was talking in a cavern.

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