[CNBCfix Fast Money Review Archive — June 2019]
Here we go again: ‘Below tangible book’
On Friday's (6/28) Halftime Report, Judge brought in No. 1-something-or-other Toni Sacconaghi to opine on AAPL, but it was Judge's own panel that didn't seem too alarmed by the departure of Jony Ive.
Jon Najarian pointed out that Ive is still doing work for Apple.
Josh Brown said, "The tech journalists would say that Jony Ive retired uh 4 years ago, and uh just didn't make it official until now."
Brown added, "This is not like it's 1 person doing all this work, and omigod, I hope he stays. They literally have thousands of people working in these divisions, working on these products, some of the best people in the world. I would not use this as a catalyst to sell Apple stock."
Things actually got debatable when Jim Lebenthal started to gush about banks (snicker), particularly C and GS.
Josh Brown actually said, "Goldman's goin' to 250." We'll take the other side of that one.
Doc said, "What about 1MDB (that's correct, begins with a number, not the IMDB or Internet Movie Database)."
Jim said, "Jon, it's priced in." Josh said, "Have you ever seen one of these banks actually get affected by one of these crises."
Brown said GS is trading at 8 times. Najarian insisted, "I think they've got problems."
Brown also asked why, if the outlook isn't great, did Goldman Sachs hike its dividend 47%. Najarian correctly stated but didn't go far enough, "Because they just got the OK from the Fed." We would add that if they DIDN'T do a massive hike after the Fed's OK, people would be wondering, "What's wrong?"
This page stated more than a year ago that FB would hit 300 well before GS. We'll stand by that call. (This writer is long FB.)
Doc claims Tim Cook might be one of the greatest ‘managers’ in history
Thursday's (6/27) Halftime crew offered a few choice comments about AAPL, and the commentary had nothing to do with Jony Ive. (Nor did it have anything to do with the Jana/CALSTRS idea of a year ago, backed by the "Psychic Tax Prof," to protect kids by adjusting parental controls on Apple devices. #what'sgoingonwiththat,Judge)
Kari Firestone curiously stated, "Here's what Apple has going for it — it's a low P.E. stock. It's 15 times earnings."
How in the world is a low P.E. the best thing that AAPL has going for it? (Note to program: P.E. ratio is not a catalyst of stock price; it's an effect, not cause.)
Meanwhile, Jon Najarian actually claimed that Tim Cook "might be one of the greatest managers of a business in the history of American business though."
Najarian kept trumpeting the catch-up potential of Chinese stocks such as BABA in the event of a trade deal or progress. Joe Terranova said "it looks so obvious" that the market gets a disappointment soon, so you want to be prepared in case it doesn't.
Joe said he owned TWTR but "gave up on it."
Judge and Wilfred Frost explained Jim Gorman's crypto comments in which Gorman correctly pointed out there's no purpose for this junk. Doc grumbled that "it shows that he doesn't understand what he's talking about, Judge," adding "Libra is not a stored value. Libra is a tethered coin to the U.S. dollar." (This writer is long FB.)
Doc said Libra is a "potential crusher" (snicker) to the V or MA space.
Pete’s talking about Microchip again
Judge's favorite subject for Wednesday's (6/26) Halftime Report was ... the Micron earnings report. (This writer is long MU.)
The Najarians sounded like they think taking the money and running from MU's gains Wednesday was the smart approach. Pete actually brought up a discussion from a few years ago that probably only Pete and this page remember: When the company known as Microchip warned about something or other, and Pete thundered to Judge (not quite the exact quote but close), "What's Microchip???? Look at Intel."
Joe Terranova said to stay in the semis.
Steve Weiss said he was indeed shorting MU but "got stopped out already." Weiss said the CEO "has never been able to predict the future as far as guidance" and also cited an inventory build.
Liz Ann Sonders said on Oct. 25, ‘It wouldn’t surprise me if a year from now, 2 years from now, we look back and say, you know, the be- be-, the September of, uh, 2018 was the peak of the bull market’
Judge decided to fill the all-important first 20 minutes of airtime of Tuesday's (6/25) Halftime Report asking panelists if the stock market would skyrocket if 3 or 4 specific things happen.
In general, panelists agreed, yes, if there's a deal or detente with China and the Fed remains leaning easing and the consumer remains OK, then stocks should be a buy.
Judge at one point interrupted with James Bullard's statement on how 50 basis points would be overdoing it.
Rob Sechan praised Bullard's statement; "that is so well said by him. I think that is a very pragmatic response to what is happening right now."
Joe Terranova noted Steve Liesman had been talking about this possibility a week ago, and now the market seemed to be selling off on the unlikelihood of it happening. Joe bemoaned that we've "reached an absurd moment in the market where you introduce something and 10 days later, you take it away, and the market reacts, down a hundred. Maybe it's the algos. ... It's absurdity."
Meanwhile, Sechan said that amid a few days of selling, "I'd be buying the consumer stocks right now."
Joe said GRUB might have some bounce-back to 90, but "I don't know if I see it" for a longer-term investment. Jon Najarian said AMZN has gone from competitor to maybe a buyer in the space.
Jim Lebenthal called GBX a "screaming buy."
Remember when Marine Le Pen was the stock market’s biggest fear? (And when people in Greece were shining lasers on the parliament building while MCC reported outside?)
Much to many people's surprise, there was actually a decent amount of optimism on Monday's (6/24) Halftime Report.
Then again, there was also Dr. New World claiming that being long cyclicals (while the stock market is at all-time highs) is playing "extreme offense" ...
Liz Ann Sonders suggests it’s possible that July 2019 is like September 2007
Friday's (6/21) fairly grim (snicker) Halftime Report was almost enough to make you think this was August 2008, instead of a stock market that's up 18% year to date.
Liz Ann Sonders dialed in and actually floated the possibility that we might be "heading in" to a recession.
Sonders kept arguing against buying stocks on the prospect of a rate cut, explaining that if you bought on the first cut in 2007 or 2001, that was a bad time to buy.
"You're saying that now is like '07?" Judge asked incredulously.
"I don't know, I'm saying, it could be a 1998 situation where they're reacting to a short-term crisis and it did fix the problem, but ..." Sonders said.
Viewers even got a clip from the Our-Call-Is-2,400/Our-Call-Is-3,000 Guy.
Leading the grumbling was Great-Grandpa Steve Weiss, who said it's all about China now.
"Micron I'm not sure that you'll get back to the old highs; I'm pretty confident you won't as a matter of fact," Weiss said. (This writer is long MU.)
Nevertheless, "I think you could see a melt-up in the market over the near term," Weiss said.
Well into the show, Steve Liesman, who had been listening to everyone's comments, opined, "It was the most depressing conversation I've ever heard about a stock market at an all-time high."
Karen’s sounding more and more like Debby Downer
Tuesday's big stock-market rally was not nearly enough to impress Karen Finerman on the (6/18) 5 p.m. Fast Money.
"To me, I'm really concerned about not just 2nd quarter, but what companies think about the 2nd half of the year," said Finerman. "I'm really concerned about that. I don't think a tweet is enough."
Well, hate to say it, but we're not too concerned about that.
It's amazing how many voices on CNBC are trying to save folks from disaster but not telling anyone to short anything, including the fellow who was the star guest of Tuesday's (6/18) Halftime.
Given that stocks rallied Tuesday, it seems a virtual certainty that whatever the Federal Reserve says Wednesday (6/19) will cause chuckleheads to sell, and folks like the Najarii will scoop 'em up.
Oh joy, 3 days of this
We basically took a pass with Friday's (6/14) sleepy Halftime Report, only to discover that Monday's (6/17) edition was the Jim Cramer Show again.
And Judge again unleashed the frivolous TV parlor game of playing the Fed statement, this time asking panelists what specific words they want to hear or don't want to hear, even though the words get superseded by the quarter/month/week/day/hour.
Judge said, "They better not use the word 'patience,' or the market is going to not like that (sic grammar)." OK. Now we hope they do use "patience," so we can scoop up some cheap stocks when chuckleheads sell.
Mr. New Land said what people don't want to hear is something hawkish (snicker). He said there's an argument that the Fed should do nothing, but there's "some concern" about what's happening outside the U.S.
Joe insisted "the Fed put is still there" despite the opinion of the UBS guy.
Jim Cramer claimed "the base loves tariffs." Josh Brown said he's not sure about that; "what the base really likes is xenophobia. And they're getting that in spades," so Donald Trump could simply claim that he won, and end the tariff thing, and the base would be happy and the economy better.
"Navarro's in charge," Cramer rebutted.
Steve Liesman actually suggested the concept of "go big or go home" that he heard from someone else, that the Fed could actually cut 50 basis points and then insist it's not a new "cycle" but merely an "adjustment." Sure. And then a few weeks later, they could say they really are in a "cycle" and do whatever they feel like at that point. #seenthismoviebeforebutkeepsre-airingonCNBC
A ‘preemptive’ rate cut is still based on data, no matter when it happens
It was 23 minutes into Wednesday's (6/12) Halftime Report when Steve Liesman, of all people, dropped a head-scratcher.
"I would listen to what the Fed has to say," Liesman said.
Seriously? What's the point? Whatever they say can be irrelevant in an hour. Those who trade Fed remarks are chuckleheads.
Meanwhile, Rob Sechan said he's "comfortable but not complacent." (If someone on the show ever admits to being "complacent," it'll be a first.)
Sechan might not be complacent, but Steve Weiss says somebody is, explaining to Judge, "Not everybody's on board that the Fed's going to cut. Right. And right now, so there's complacency."
Weiss said Paul Tudor Jones is right about the rate-cutting cycle being good for stocks, but "There is no Playbook 101 anymore, and there hasn't been for years."
Joe "Quality Over High Beta" Terranova opined, "I would say over the next 3-6 months that yes, stocks will be higher."
Joe said Paul Tudor Jones correctly predicted in December that there wouldn't be any rate hikes in 2019.
Everyone agreed that the new revelations about Facebook aren't even really news.
For those arguing that there's complacency, Karen Finerman, sizzling in black, said on Tuesday's (6/11) Fast Money, "I'm pretty bearish. You know I really think we have not seen the effects of the trade war take hold yet. We just, June 1st, have goods landing that are now more expensive ... Even though I'm value-oriented, I am not inclined to buy here. The one- the one thing I did buy, S&P puts, that VIX doesn't go down even with the markets going up. ... I wanna own more protection."
Najarians jump on Joe’s strategy
of ‘quality over high beta’
It was Suit Day, i.e., Post 9 Day, on Tuesday's (6/11) Halftime Report.
Joe Terranova said he was willing to dabble in the SMH, but beyond that, he's looking for "quality over high beta" (that was Judge's term, and Joe agreed). Fair enough, but it seems like such a strategy that might look passe within just a few days is just as capable of missing a big move up as down.
Pete Najarian correctly wanted to "push back," suggesting being long stocks that represent "quality with beta."
Jon Najarian pointed to FB's rebound since the recent "omigod Facebook and Google are going to be REGULATED!!!!!!!!!" fear trade (that's not a Jon Najarian quote; that's what the market collectively was saying), back up to nearly 180. Brother Pete Najarian gushed about FB, stating whatever regulations (snicker) happen, the better the "moat." (This writer is long FB.)
Joe said FB hasn't gone anywhere in 12 months. "Yeah, but that's not the way I view things," Pete correctly said. (Translation: What a stock did 12 months ago has little bearing on what it's going to do now.)
Judge said MoffettNathanson is "no joke." He said, "When they upgrade you in this sector, you're gonna feel it."
Doc claimed Facebook's private blockchain (snicker) is "gonna be a game-changer."
Jon Najarian makes a phenomenal and simple point that sums up the last 10 years of stock-market investing (a/k/a the point Steve Liesman tried to make requires knowing the boundaries of the NYC Marathon)
Steve Liesman, basically the star guest of Friday's (6/7) Halftime Report, used an analogy about running marathons (he said he wouldn't expect to beat elite runners) to explain where the market is on rate cuts vs. the Fed, stating the market previously was way ahead and now not quite so far ahead.
Liesman predicted a "wait-and-see quarter-point cut in July."
Joe Terranova told Judge that "bad news is good news," but Josh Brown opined that this week is "just a reversal of extremely oversold conditions."
Liesman questioned who wants to be long going into the weekend when Mexico tariffs might hit Monday. Jon Najarian told Liesman that it might be bad Monday morning, but by Tuesday, long investors might be feeling good. Regardless of the potentially binary outcome Monday, "Both could be a fade from where we are right now," Najarian said.
Stephanie Link said CMG's CEO is "tremendous" and "terrific."
Jon Najarian's observation about not falling for a knee-jerk selloff is a beautiful point. On Thursday, Najarian made a simple observation but easily one of the strongest points of the year and the last 10 years — that if you overreact to news such as whatever happens early Monday morning on Mexico tariffs, you're making a big mistake:
"How many of these head-fake moves have we seen where, if you were smart enough or steady enough to- to hang on, you did fine. And if you were one of those folks that reacted to that selloff, unless your reaction was buying, you are in a world of hurt right now. You are underperforming like crazy, and/or, you just keep losing money."
Joe makes good call
A day ago (see below), this page credited Joe Terranova with a "spirited performance" on the Halftime Report.
On Tuesday (6/4), Judge gave Joe a bit of a victory lap for opting to play short-term "offense" with the stock market. Joe was perhaps too humble, stating, "Listen I got lucky, played a little bit of offense."
Josh Brown though wasn't sold on the long-term prospects. "This still feels like an oversold bounce," Brown said.
Josh said the value/growth ratio had a "monster day" on Monday, and it's now at the "lowest point, that ratio, since October of 2000."
Judge seemed to think Monday's value/growth move Monday wasn't that significant given the "few negative headlines about some of the highest-growth stocks in tech." But Brown said twice "it wouldn't shock me" if the trend continues longer than a day.
Neither Judge nor Jon Najarian could remember a day where tech giants got slaughtered to the extent of Monday.
Judge and Doc agreed Stan Druckenmiller is frustrated; "many of us are frustrated," Najarian said.
Steve Liesman talked about the Najarians bench-pressing 290. We don't know, but we're not betting against 'em in that category.
‘Discipline dictates action’
(Sigh) It's hard to believe how people keep falling for this.
On Monday's (6/3) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova, in a spirited appearance, asserted that the stock market did not peak at the time of one of Donald Trump's tweets.
Rather, Joe said, "The top from the market was the FOMC meeting where the appearance was (sic grammar) Jay Powell took away from the market the chance for a cut in 2019."
Why in the world would anyone believe that the Fed is not going to do something for 8 months, because of something Jay Powell or anyone else says?
How about this: "The peak of the market was any excuse to sell in May after a white-hot first 4 months."
Later, despite Joe's comment, Steve Weiss said the prospect of a rate cut is "well-discounted."
Jim Lebenthal said the Fed doesn't have to cut now but just needs to say it's "alive" to geopolitics and world trade issues.
Meanwhile ... Pack of Momentum Traders Alert ... Joe stated, "I think the economic contraction outside of the U.S. is gaining significant momentum."
Grandpa Steve Weiss several times argued for cash. Weiss said China is going after FDX because it's got few jobs there, unlike AAPL.
On the other hand, Yana Barton stated, "Bottom line is, equities always persevere."
Jim Lebenthal also was fairly chipper, stating, "This is classic value investing."
Addressing JPMorgan's call on CRM, Yana Barton said "it's sort of a chicken down grade" (sic "downgrade" as 2 words).
Pete Najarian explained what "DDA" means to options traders. (Boy, is that a catchy slogan.)