CNBCfix - Fast Money Review

[CNBCfix Fast Money Review Archive — March 2018]
[Thursday, March 29, 2018]

Bob Shiller: Donald Trump
is an inspiration to many

Robert Shiller admitted to Judge on Thursday's Halftime, "I'm not very good at forecasting."

Shiller said he likes to emphasize "narratives," and the one right now "has something to do with the Trump regime."

He said Donald Trump's agenda is "aggressive business" that has "somehow led to a mood."

Shiller said Donald Trump is "for many people an inspiration" (snicker).

Kari Firestone said Shiller's tone seems to be "less negative than I remember in the last two years."

Joe invites hecklers to bring it on Twitter

Pete Najarian on Friday's Halftime announced that the stock market question is, "Is tech back or not."

Steve Weiss said, "There's definitely been some blood in the streets. ... This is where you earn your money if you're- if you're an asset manager."

"I think volatility is clearly here to stay. I think we're in a rising rate environment," Weiss added. He said he added to MSFT and GOOGL and bought WGO and THO.

Joe Terranova observed, "The VIX is up 86% in the quarter, and that's the story."

Ramping that up a notch, Joe asserted, "You could all go on Twitter and write the criticism of what I'm about to say, but say goodbye to passive investing."

Josh Brown said, "I'll take the under on 'say goodbye to passive investing.' Anyone can bet me that 3 years from now, we will see less money invested in ETFs and indexes. If they wanna bet- make that bet, they'll lose. Um, I respect those opinions. They're just wrong."

Brown noted "Nasdaq's up on the week," and on the quarter too.

Joe said that despite the rockiness of February and March, as far as year-to-date stats, "It looks like a yawn if you look at the quarter."

Brown said AMZN could close the day green; it did (this review was posted after market close). Brown added, "Google broke below the 200-day moving average and then ripped everybody's face off that was writing the stock's epitaph."

Weiss said, "That's the joke, said on this show also, 'Oh, it breaks the 200-day average, watch out.' OK, forget about the technicals. Look at where there's value."

Weiss added, "The interesting paradox (sic) here is that I was more worried when the market was going up 100 and 200, or 1% and 2% every day, then I am worried now." Not quite a paradox, but we'll let it go.

Kari Firestone said, "We can look at this as healthy."

Brown questioned the effect on banks of a flattening curve. Weiss agreed it's not great but thinks "that's not long term" and that steepening will return.

Joe Terranova trumpeted the gains in exchange-related stocks. Kari Firestone said, "There are a lot of people who like financials." Weiss said, "Look at the stocks, how do you say that?"

So which whale was buying GE?

Josh Brown on Thursday's Halftime astutely noted that TSLA used to always hold 300, "then when it broke 300, the selling accelerated," and it has "lost a lot of momentum money."

Pete Najarian said "the biggest concern" with TSLA is the possibility of a capital raise. Judge said he was literally just going to ask what is the biggest concern, but "that's not even listed" in the analyst note.

Josh Brown said he doesn't think "there's ever been a CEO in history" who has made so many forward projections and had "zero consequences" for the ones that aren't correct. "There's no retraction, there's just, 'Here's a new product,'" Brown said.

Joe contended that he thinks the panelists all agree, "for the very first time in years, short shel- sellers are now in control of this stock."

But one person who didn't agree was Judge, bluntly telling Joe, "I do not think that the shorts have ever been control- in control of this stock."

Joe insisted, at this moment, they're "in control."

The Futures Now guys never declare whether they are ‘gold bugs’

Scott Nations on Thursday's Halftime Report said "I don't see much upside ahead" for gold.

Jim Iuorio predicted "1,300 is the next stop on the downside."

Pete Najarian said June 115 CRM calls were popular.

Judge read someone's tweet questioning Steve Weiss' complaints about stocks he owns. Weiss suggested the gent has a "comprehension issue."

Joe Terranova's final trade was BLK. Josh Brown said INTC. Kari Firestone said AWK. Weiss said GOOGL. Pete said TWTR.

Pete bickers with Weiss but apparently wasn’t listening to what Weiss was saying

With the stock market smiling Thursday, the Halftime crew started talking up the unfairly beaten tech names.

Pete Najarian seemed to question why MU sold off.

Steve Weiss said MU's commentary "wasn't that strong," and (this proved important) he sold some of his stake.

Pete said, "Well, you better buy it back before it goes up again."

Weiss said MU traditionally has been "too optimistic" about the cycles.

Pete suggested MU is a "different company than they were just a couple of years ago."

Weiss shrugged, "That's always the story."

"That's not always the story!" Pete bellowed.

Weiss noted, as he had said originally, he's "still there." Pete said, "Wait a minute, you just said you weren't there." Weiss said, "No, I said I sold some of it. I'm still there."

Weiss added, "This is a teachable moment for you, Pete."

"The guy's nuts," Pete laughed.

"Let's roll the tape," Weiss said.

"Roll the tape," Pete said.

Much more from Thursday's Halftime, including Prof. Robert Shiller, later.

[Wednesday, March 28, 2018]

Seating chart bungle: Jim not placed next to Weiss, so argument fizzles

Jim Lebenthal on Wednesday's Halftime contended that TSLA is a "fabulous company" but needs to raise money; he said 2025 bonds have fallen from 94 cents on the dollar to 86 in a week.

Steve Weiss said TSLA has been "overvalued" for an "extended period" and that there's also "unabated" competition; he wouldn't buy the stock.

Pete Najarian said the capital raise "is a big deal for them."

Weiss asked Jim, "How is that cross-selling going with solar panels?" Judge said he wants to hear that answer too.

Jim protested, "Let's just make sure that we don't think I'm cheerleading the company."

Weiss said Jim thinks it's fabulous, "that's a cheerleader."

Jim said, "We've had this discussion a million times." Judge had a good quip, saying, "Let's have it a million-one."

Jim insisted he was "very clear that this is not a stock to own right now."

But Jim never answered Weiss' question; eventually Weiss pinned down Jim that TSLA has "fabulous technology" but maybe isn't a "fabulous company."

Josh Brown said TSLA has a 23 RSI, so if you're a "nimble" trader, you might try to play it for a bounce.

Judge said Adam Jonas calls it a "buying opportunity." But Adam Jonas is presumably still analyzing the great "transfer of wealth" from insurance companies to Houston car owners.

Weiss called Andrew Left’s NFLX argument ‘specious’ on March 12, now says Left was ‘prescient’

Judge opened Wednesday's Halftime stating FAANG "can't get any traction" and that "everybody is talking about it."

Josh Brown said "a lot of the potential malevolence" from Donald Trump's threats toward certain companies such as AMZN is "balanced out" by "being all over the place" and maybe even "a little bit of incompetence."

Brown said a lot of tech stock uptrends are still "largely intact."

Pete Najarian said sellers are "coming after high-multiple stocks." (Maybe there's something to Rob Sechan's value-asserting-itself trade.)

Steve Weiss said he bought Alphabet Tuesday and more on Wednesday. "This too shall pass," Weiss said; he puts the Facebook stuff in the category of "geopolitical issues." (This writer is long FB and GOOGL.)

In a curious assessment, Weiss said, "Andrew Left was absolutely prescient in calling this Facebook issue, which is the only reason why Netflix declined." But 1) We don't recall Left on March 12 saying "Netflix is going to fall because Facebook is going to have a data issue" and 2) It was merely a valuation call based on Netflix not having the moat that Apple does.

Weiss said he also added to AAPL Wednesday morning.

Judge said the Axios story says that Donald Trump is "wondering aloud" if he can go after AMZN with antitrust law.

Jim Lebenthal said that's "always been the big fear with the company," which sounded kind of curious; we thought the "big fear" was always that it wouldn't actually make any money.

Jim said the question is "why now" (about 3-4 times) for a tech blowff and concluded, "It's almost like a jenga tower that just got too unstable. One little piece is taken out of the bottom, and the whole thing wobbles and falls down. Now that does not mean that we are having a market crash. This is a correction, OK."

Judge aired clips from 2016 of Donald Trump vowing to give AMZN trouble, saying Jeff Bezos bought the Washington Post to gain influence in D.C. and that Amazon is "gonna have to start paying sales tax." Josh Brown said "everything that was just in that clip was a lie."

Brown said Amazon users pay tax in every state where it's applicable and that Amazon is "probably the biggest hirer in America." And it's "not a monopoly."

Brown pointed out that Katharine Graham was threatened by the Nixon White House about publishing the Pentagon Papers.

Kari Firestone said AMZN isn't out of favor, it's just "way up" this year.

Weiss bluntly stated there's no antitrust issue with AMZN.

Pete Najarian said the FAANG names will be OK though Facebook will have issues for "quite a while."

Jim said passive investing was pressured, stating, "You're starting to see the ETF outflows."

Brown pointed to XLP "getting a nice bounce" as well as REITs.

Judge asked Pete if FB is a buy. Pete said he "clearly got in too early with my options, but that's why I used options instead of stock, because I knew exactly the risk parameters and the risk/reward. Stock was 165 when I decided to buy the 175 calls. ... I still don't know that I'd be buying the stock. ... I don't know that you've missed your best chance," Pete said, adding there's "headline risk almost every day."

At one point, Judge said Tim Cook just told Kara Swisher that if he were Mark Zuckerberg, "I wouldn't be in this situation." Pete and the panel chuckled. Judge said, "It's a nice little zinger." That's quite a zinger. Another zinger is one guy buying Instagram for $1 billion while another guy buys Beats for $3 billion. Still another zinger is a guy founding his own $400 billion company while another guy succeeds a CEO who passes away.

Oh, boy: Axios article also said Mike Pence has listened with ‘keen interest’ to arguments against FB and GOOGL

Meg Tirrell on Wednesday's Halftime Report spoke with investor Alex Denner at one of CNBC's many conferences; Denner said the biotech space is ... drum roll ... hold your breath ... "probably fairly valued."

He said M&A is one of the "obvious" potential outcomes with Shire.

Denner touted MDCO but said "over time" it should partner with someone or be part of a larger company.

Kari Firestone mentioned a couple headwinds in the biotech space but said big companies "really need help" with R&D. Firestone said there's "some sense" that "there's nothing that's gonna happen" in Washington about hurting drug pricing.

Pete Najarian said MSFT 94 calls expiring May 4 got bought.

Kari Firestone likes Bernstein's buy V call. Kari said any threat from crypto is a "long way from today." Steve Weiss said he looked at the MA chart and can't figure out why he hasn't owned it over the years.

Anthony Grisanti said there's regulation and threats of more regulation for bitcoin. Scott Nations said 5,850 is looking like the floor for bitcoin, "and we might see that again."

Josh Brown said he'd buy the LULU chart "all day." He said you can play it with a stop below 80.

Pete’s got the Dennis Gartman routine going, has to tell us before every gold recommendation that he’s not a ‘gold bug’ (wonder what it’s like buying gold in yen terms these days)

In a sleepy segment of Wednesday's Halftime, BNP's U.S. CEO Jean-Yves Fillion said the gap between 2-year and 10-year of 50 bps means short-term investors believe Fed hikes are coming but that there is "skepticism" about the economy keeping up its pace.

Judge asked what corporate Europe thinks about Donald Trump. Fillion said since GATT and WTO were established, "The world has drastically changed including China." (Whew. Unlike Kevin Plank, Fillion didn't say having a business-minded president is a real asset to the country.)

Jim Lebenthal asked Fillion a variation of the "what keeps you awake at night" question. Fillion said, "I sleep pretty well at night."

Jim's final trade was ALXN, Josh Brown said "Shorts — spring has sprung." Kari Firestone said BMY. Steve Weiss said C, BAC. Pete Najarian said "I'm not a gold bug" but GDX.

[Tuesday, March 27, 2018]

Wouldn’t it be funny if it’s Brad Gerstner and he ‘scoops’ Judge again

Offering a graphic showing faces of Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman, Dan Loeb, Keith Meister, Barry Rosenstein and Paul Singer as having possible GE interest, Judge at the top of Tuesday's Halftime asserted that "somebody big is buying this stock."

Joe Terranova quibbled with the terminology, insisting, "Someone big is potentially going to buy the stock." Joe said, "The good thing about it is it buffers the downside (sic redundant) decline."

Josh Brown said "it's not yet a rescue situation," and Warren Buffett has done "rescues" differently by making a deal with the company for preferreds rather than plunging into the common.

Jim Lebenthal affirmed that "I don't think Buffett comes in at the common level." Jim said, of all the names on Judge's wall, "I really hope it is Buffett," because if it's any of the other possibilities, they "could be getting sucked into a value trap." (That's a curious sentiment; feeling bad for megarich guys that they might buy a stock that actually goes down.)

Jim even mentioned Bill Nygren announcing buying or liking the stock at 22 a while back on the Halftime Report; that was Oct. 17, and unfortunately one of the bigger guest stumbles in recent years.

Joe asked, "Why could it not still be a value trap if, if Warren Buffett is buying it?"

Jim got a wee bit defensive and said, "Joe, I'm not buying it. I mean, you know-"

(But that doesn't explain why Warren Buffett is apparently value trap-proof.)

Joe asserted, "Warren Buffett has been involved in value traps before."

Kevin O'Leary called GE an "extremely expensive stock" and outlined the price private equity would pay at this stock level.

O'Leary said he thinks GE falls below 10 and doesn't think Warren Buffett will touch it. "There's no value at $13," O'Leary said.

Stephanie Link said GE still has "a lot of balance-sheet problems" and of course knocked the power division.

Josh Brown questioned who wants to go up against Nelson Peltz in this name.

Is there nothing to the Steve Wynn allegations?

Judge on Tuesday's Halftime noted the JPMorgan WYNN upgrade to 214 and asked Pete Najarian if Steve Wynn selling WYNN isn't a headwind.

Pete curiously said if Steve Wynn "didn't have some of the allegations that are against him which he has fully denied by the way, um, I guarantee you he would not have been getting out of his stock."

Hmmm, that's interesting ... "Some of the allegations" have been "fully denied." The Wall Street Journal said he paid a manicurist a $7.5 million settlement; does he deny that too? Is there some reason a manicurist should be receiving $7.5 million?

Anyway, Pete said the stock "very easily" crosses 200 "in the not-too-distant future." Pete suggested Steve Wynn's exit isn't a big deal because he was probably going to step aside soon anyway, telling Judge that he would think before this happened that Wynn would've been thinking "maybe a year, maybe 2, that's it."

Pete said BAC 31 calls that expire a week from Friday were popular. He said September 29 XLF calls were getting bought.

Judge brought back Nancy Davis to talk about volatility; in a rare production bungle at Englewood Cliffs, the cameraman had a dilly of a time getting Davis on screen without the camera floating around. We practically got seasick swimming through this imagery; apparently Davis was talking about playing volatility with options on the yield curve.

Jim Iuorio said he thinks gold's reversal Tuesday is "the beginning of more weakness." Brian Stutland predicted resistance at 1,380.

Is anyone going to be talking about Facebook’s fortnight 6 months from now?

Stephanie Link on Tuesday's Halftime Report said she's long FB and conceded "this is very frustrating for sure," though she expects to add more. (This writer is long FB.)

"I just wanna let the dust settle," Link said.

Judge demanded, "How much more dust needs to settle. You had your chance yesterday!," pointing to the "monster bounce" off 149.

"It is getting interesting," Link said. "I come back to, where are these advertisers going to go."

Josh Brown said he agrees about the endurance of the platform but that the question is how much data can be used to place future ads.

Link claimed, "Social media is not going away."

Kevin O'Leary said the No. 1 feature of his companies that buy FB ads is geo-locking and how you can tailor ads to select municipalities. O'Leary actually said "State of Illinoise (sic last word pronounced with "s" at end)."

O'Leary called FB "a huge competitive weapon for small business in America." That may be a bit overstating it, but no question, this company is a national asset; if it went away, that would be a big problem. The only reason anyone cares about this data thing is because Donald Trump is in the White House.

Citing all the supposed investigations, Brown questioned if the opt-in feature for data may not lower the value of the platform.

But Judge asked Brown if all the "attorneys general stuff you're talkin' about is already in the stock," as well as the prospects of Zuck testifying.

"We're not in the 8th inning here," Brown insisted. "We're not!"

Joe too disagreed with Judge, "It's not in the stock." Joe claimed the stock at some point "will turn around." Judge said, "It did turn around. It turned around yesterday." Joe said, "Scott it went from 149 to 156; that's not such a big turnaround."

Joe said he'd "much rather" be buying AAPL and GOOGL (or GOOG, whatever). Judge said Weiss bought GOOGL Tuesday. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Jim Lebenthal stated, "There's a perception bubble that's been pricked and burst." Jim said that bubble is that "these companies cannot be regulated."

Jim actually claimed with a straight face that FB could be "bled by legal costs." Stephanie Link said, "Oh my God, they have so much cash flow, come on, that's not- that's not the issue, no way, no way."

"You cannot undersell this, you cannot undersell this, when every attorminal- (sic) attorney general, the United Kingdom, Asia, the U.S. federal government-" Jim claimed. (Right, and the general public surely wants Maxine Waters and Elizabeth Warren to start refereeing Facebook procedures because it's Facebook's fault that Donald Trump is in the White House.)

Josh Brown noted that MSFT was "able to trade higher" from the time the Justice Department launched the case in 1998 into 2000, but "starting from June of 2000," going 10 years, "you earned a zero percent return in Microsoft," though he didn't say if that includes dividends.

So basically if you own tech giants when tech is booming, the stock goes up even if there's an investigation, and if tech isn't booming, the stock doesn't go up, even if there's no investigation. (And to think a day ago, he was only talking about how MSFT might be the first to $1 trillion.)

"A monopoly case is far different than this," Judge grumbled.

Joe said FB is a question of, "Why do I have to be there."

Stephanie Link said she doesn't think either FB or GOOGL will outperform near term.

Jim at 6% cash

Jonathan Krinsky on Tuesday's Halftime said he's not calling this a stock market comeback because only technology has made a new high since the February lows and that unlike last year, if tech falters, there's not a likely sector to take leadership.

He also said the new high in tech "was immediately rejected."

"Why are you declaring tech dead," Judge asked. Krinsky assured he's not getting "too overly bearish."

Jim Lebenthal said he's only got 6% cash in his equity portfolios.

Stephanie Link said she's been looking at CVX, SLB, PRU and CSCO.

Josh Brown admitted NVDA's announcement was "not a great announcement" if you're long the name, but Brown said he wouldn't sell it and made not selling NVDA his final trade.

"We have tragic accidents every day caused by humans," Brown said, insisting self-driving cars are here to stay. "If you have a 5- or 6-year-old child right now, that child is probably not gonna get a driver's license."

Joe Terranova said Brown has "unbelievable discipline" for not selling NVDA since 50.

Judge said Jim Cramer landing Jensen Huang is a "big, big catch."

Joe's final trade was ESS, a REIT. Stephanie Link said LLL, Jim Lebenthal said RIG (snicker) and Josh Brown said he's not selling NVDA.

Guy Adami was saying on Friday's Fast Bitcoin that you shouldn't fade whatever happens Monday, then Monday on Closing Bell he trumpeted making that analysis on Friday, and yet on Tuesday, tech did a U-turn.

[Monday, March 26, 2018]

‘Bill is in an arrogance category all by himself’

We were pleasantly surprised, and frankly a bit startled, when Judge actually veered into the topic of egos on Monday's Halftime Report.

The guest was author Bill Cohan, and the subject was mostly Eddie Lampert ... but even Eddie, it seems, isn't nearly as elite as a former Harvard rower.

"Bill is in an arrogance category all by himself," Cohan said. "He blames it on Allergan; he blames it on Valeant; he blames it on Herbalife. These were decisions that Bill made!"

Well, gotta admit, anyone who gets giddy about the prospect of Lee Cooperman possibly discussing his "comportment," well ...

Meanwhile, Cohan said he doesn't "really know" why Eddie Lampert gave an interview; "maybe he thought it was time."

Cohan said he thinks Lampert believes the SHLD-Kmart combination was Lampert's worst mistake. (Honestly, we know little of the man's life, but if he has a bigger mistake than that ...)

Cohan suggested Lampert "got overconfident and too caught up in the wisdom of his own ideas." (Translation: Should've bought Netflix instead of Sears.)

Cohan pointed out how Lampert might be able to take SHLD through bankruptcy "and come out the other side still owning all the equity." Judge called that "controversial in and of itself (sic last 4 words needless and redundant)."

"I think he does truly believe that he can pull this out," Cohan said.

Leslie Picker dialed in to report on the Pershing Square note. Picker said "there's quite a bit of concession and humility from Bill Ackman in this letter."

Weiss: ‘Nothing sincere’ about Sheryl’s comments to Julia ‘Boorsteen’

Judge on Monday's Halftime claimed Brad Gerstner touted the FB bull case "yesterday when he came on," even though it was a week ago and "yesterday" was Sunday. (This writer is long FB.)

Josh Brown said, "I think they'll tighten the ship up. I also don't see a lot of advertisers leaving." He also said the tobacco and BP spill analogies don't make much sense either. He called it "a better buy than it is a sell."

Judge noted FB's Monday bounce at 150. Steve Weiss said "Google is a much better way to play it." (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Weiss knocked Sheryl Sandberg's interview: "It was the most rehearsed apology in the interview with Julia Boorsteen (sic pronunciation), I thought it was, Why come on? There's nothing sincere about it. ... Right now it's too hot to try and pick a bottom."

In the latest update on FB's transgressions, Josh Brown said "they have transcripts of when you're making phone calls." Weiss said, "When companies get arrogant, this is what happens." (When Bill Ackman gets arrogant, it's apparently just another day at the office.)

Joe said, "Facebook is the classic example of when passive investing goes the wrong way," which made us wonder what ever happened to Joe's passive investing "bubble" of nearly 2 months ago.

Joe said he's long AAPL; "I bought more AAPL."

Of course, there’s the notion that Donald Trump is trying to ‘stack the deck’ with Larry Kudlow and John Bolton

Joe Terranova on Monday's Halftime offered a political rationale for why the stock market has been stumbling.

Joe said there's a "perception" that "the midterm election has actually begun (can't we enjoy summer first) ... and I think the belief is there ... that there's a very strong chance (snicker) that the Republicans lose the House."

Actually, while we're sick of investigations, at least gridlock isn't bad, because 1) then lawmakers with nothing to do won't be quite so capable of borrowing money for gimmicks and 2) what more do stock investors possibly think they need to squeeze from Republican debt-spending?

Jim Lebenthal actually said the Trump team is saying to themselves, "We might get really swept in both houses."

Rob Sechan conceded, "There is headline news that is driving short-term sentiment without a doubt."

The most stark pronouncement came from Josh Brown, who asserted, "Right now, stocks look as vulnerable as we've seen them look anytime in the last 2 years back to January-February '16."

Rob Sechan tried to make a point about what happens when tech falters, but Brown cut him off before we could figure out what Sechan was saying. Brown said financials have taken a beating, not just tech stocks.

Steve Weiss reverted to the bull-market-in-the-9th-10th-year observation and suggesting people who have made good money for the last decade don't want to deal with volatility. (So why did they resume buying after Feb. 9?)

Rob Sechan claimed with a straight face that "value is starting to, starting to assert slight leadership in the last week alone."

Sechan found himself tangled up in a debate over whether the market has, or can, make a "pivot."

Jim predicted volatility will fall, but not to 2017 levels.

Funny, not a word about steel tariffs, thought that was one of the worst disasters of all time ...

"Saint Jim" Paulsen on Monday's Halftime suggested a bit of caution by claiming tech stocks "are not up anywhere close" to the late '90s run, "but relative to utilities, they are."

Jim said that among stock investors, that causes a "comfort of popularity, and they're all going into the same FAANG stocks" (except not FB or GOOGL now apparently) and avoiding defensive stocks.

"I just think this market is vulnerable," Paulsen said.

Paulsen said earnings will be great, "The problem is, we paid ourselves last year for those earnings." That sounds like a revert-to-December-2017 argument that the tax cuts were already priced in.

Paulsen attempted to outline his top 3 risk factors for 2018, but he listed 2 items as "secondly," those being both earnings and "stagflation fear."

What’s up with Bob Shiller’s ‘50%’ call of a year ago?

Judge on Monday's Halftime mentioned Morgan Stanley's MSFT buy recommendation; Steve Weiss said "I don't understand the call" because it appears to be a multiple expansion call, and "That's what's wrong with the market."

But he does like the stock.

Jim Lebenthal filled in Weiss on the genesis of the upgrade: "There's no reason is basically what it is."

Josh Brown said MSFT still holds the all-time inflation-adjusted stock market high, so it would be interesting if it's first to $1 trillion. Brown said the stock has bounced off the 100-day.

Weiss grumbled of the call, "To me, this is catchup." Weiss said he owns MSFT.

Pete Najarian trumpeted MSFT as "winning" the battle with Amazon's Web Services. Pete even touted the 10% of the company that's Xbox.

Judge scoffed. "C'mon, Xbox, is not getting 'em to a trillion dollars Pete," Judge said.

Pete said, "Hey hey hey ... that's a crazy statement. I didn't say Xbox is getting 'em there."

Jim Lebenthal contended that "easier gains are had in Cisco and Intel."

Steve Weiss called Pete and Satya Nadella "the single biggest bromance on the show." Joe brought up Katy Huberty.

Dick Bove still wondering why Lloyd hasn’t left already

Josh Brown on Monday's Halftime said INTC "looks incredible" compared with other tech stocks. He made it his final trade and suggested it'll get to 60.

Pete Najarian said NEM April 37 calls were soaring. Pete said SLV July 18 calls were also popular.

Jim Lebenthal said to look for more M&A in the FINL space.

Joe Terranova said he likes DG over DLTR.

Steve Weiss said that because LOW was rising so much on news of the CEO's retirement, "It's a terrible commentary on him."

Rob Sechan and Josh Brown agreed on EEM looking good.

Joe said GE is "unbelievable," and not in a good way. His final trade was CME. Jim Lebenthal said GS. Weiss said C; "I added to it again." Rob Sechan offered IUSV.

[Friday, March 23, 2018]

Facebook could’ve been behind the fall of the Romanov dynasty

Judge on Friday's Halftime Report said Elon Musk is removing pages from Facebook.

"Who cares," said Steve Weiss.

What if Democrats get trampled in November? (a/k/a Jim thinks John Bolton was brought aboard to do something)

Jim Lebenthal early on Friday's Halftime offered a curious opinion on the November midterm elections (gee whiz, can't we enjoy summer first).

Jim asserted, "If you're Trump (most of us aren't), do you really think that the November elections are gonna go your way? You've gotta be crazy if you think they're gonna go your way."

Hmmmm, "crazy."

We've looked up some of the forecasts, and frankly some of this standard-deviationing is way beyond our capacity (then again, we could never figure out why Bud held Gekko's BST through the ruling pop but unloaded "Terafly" before the end of the first day), but it appears Democrats are given something in the ballpark of 55% chance of taking the House and 50% chance of taking the Senate.

We'd actually expect an underperform.

Finishing his point, Jim actually claimed that if you're Trump and eyeing November, "you stack the deck right now" with John Bolton and Larry Kudlow in order to — this is really curious — "get as much done in the 8 months that remain."

Josh Brown, who had one of his best shows in months in part because he dialed it down and didn't overtalk, noted that "Kudlow hates tariffs." (But Kudlow will probably end up in charge of the Justice Department or CIA.)

Tony Dwyer’s retest
might actually happen

Offering something of a momentum trade on Friday's Halftime, Steve Weiss advised, "I think that you have to pause on equities here ... because they've gotten cheaper every day."

Weiss said some stocks are overpriced, such as CAT and DE.

Weiss insisted the semantics of Donald Trump's foreign policy disputes are "ridiculous." Jim Lebenthal insisted they're not, "there's an end game here in which settlement occurs."

Weiss said John Bolton thinks you strike North Korea before sitting down with them. Can't argue with that.

Josh Brown rightly questioned why we want to "resurrect industries that at their best were barely profitable and were incredibly cyclical ... you would have these waves of mass layoffs and factory closures," while hurting a company like Boeing.

"Why would you bring logic into this conversation," Weiss cracked.

Even Judge was expressing some degree of incredulity over Thursday's and Friday morning's tape, asking Mike Wilson if he thinks "this is ridiculous." Wilson seemed to think it is; "we're at the low end of our range," and "the market is now finding value" in the "too cheap" S&P 500.

Rick Santelli opined, "If tomorrow the Dow was down 5,000 points, I guarantee you we wouldn't see 3 tightenings."

Josh Brown said that if Donald Trump is "serious" about revamping the way we trade with China, there probably has to be "bluster" and "theater" involved.

Can’t say we’re sure if Donald Trump is imposing or proposing

Steve Weiss on Friday's Halftime said that if China gives U.S. Treasurys the cold shoulder in our newfound trade war, "that takes it to a whole new level, and frankly, that's where they've got us."

Refreshingly, no one else was taking this situation that seriously.

Josh Brown said we don't want to "extrapolate out" threats by China to spurn Treasurys.

"It's way too early to call this a trade war," said Mike Wilson. Judge questioned why it's too early. Wilson said "war" is a "strong word"; instead he calls it a "trade dispute."

Wilson said it becomes a "war" when it "starts going down the wrong path and it becomes much larger."

Jim Lebenthal said all 4 of the folks on the desks have clients, and so does China, in the form of the United States, and "it is not in China's interests to get into a trade war."

Rick Santelli said if there was "any bite" to this trade bickering, he'd expect the Dow to be down more than 50-70 points.

Weiss grudgingly admitted that Thursday's selloff looks extreme while qualifying it with a mystery new observation about the length of the bull run. "I think that was overdoing it in one day. I'm not sure it's overdoing it given the age of the market," Weiss said.

Jim said U.S. Treasurys are higher-yielding than other countries' bonds, so China "can't buy anything else. ... We are their client, they want to take care of us."

What happened to that one person Judge was talking to who took ‘full advantage’ of FB’s Monday selloff?

Judge on Friday's Halftime called NKE an "important stock."

Josh Brown said NKE is trading just like the Dow. Jim Lebenthal said you have to wait to see if NKE's report means anything for UAA (which Doc said recently could be the next TWTR).

Josh Brown cracked that NKE was "rallying on news that Pershing Square got out." Judge said, "Ackman made a quick hundred million on that. Uh, nice trade. He needed it, too."

Pete Najarian suggested if NKE can just "stay even" in North America, then international growth can carry it. But Pete said, "I don't like the valuation level."

Wonder if Brad Gerstner scooped Judge on anything Friday

In a cogent observation, Judge on Friday's Halftime said he thinks interest rates are "skeptical" of "where the economy truly is."

Mike Wilson said, "More likely we're gonna do something in the mid-2's this year."

Josh Brown said he's not buying DBX but is "very, very happy" to see it have a positive debut. Steve Weiss noted, "There's been no IPO market" for a while.

Judge said DBX was seen by some as an "important IPO in and of itself (sic last 4 words unnecessary/redundant)" for tech.

Weiss said he has owned MU for a long time and isn't selling; he did sell WDC. "However, I bought Citi, unlucky," Weiss said, apparently intending to provide an update on recent buys.

He said the concern for MU is, "Is capacity being added to these stocks. ... I still think it's OK." Pete said there could be an "excuse" to take profits, which could be creating opportunity. Pete said he's in INTC instead because he sees that as having higher upside now.

Mike Wilson discussed his "fresh money buy list," which includes names such as CLR, CSCO, DIS, ETFC, MSFT, TMUS, LYB, NEE. He claimed "2018 really is about stock selection."

Wilson told Brown that the Morgan Stanley analyst thinks ETFC has more upside than SCHW and has a bit of a potential takeover premium. Steve Weiss touted MSFT.

Pete Najarian said that after Steve Wynn's sale, "the overhang is gone" from WYNN shares.

Josh Brown said he would not be a seller of SQ and would look to the 100-day.

In contrast to what Weiss said at the top of the show, Jim Lebenthal said CAT earnings estimates are going up as the stock falls, and "it's cheap," as long as we're not headed to a bear market.

Weiss said KBH's commentary was most impressive, that demand is steady and supply is tight.

Pete said if TGT was merging with KR, "I probably would've sold Target."

Pete said FL is "very inexpensive" and the cheaper play on the NKE report. Pete said May 44 calls were bought. Pete also said CY May 19 calls were aggressively bought.

Jim's final trade was XLE. Weiss offered a "rare sell" on BAC and C. Josh Brown said INTC.

Bob Pisani actually said on Closing Bell that "social media is in an existential crisis."

[Thursday, March 22, 2018]

Another day of massively free advertising for Facebook

Divya Narendra, the star guest of Thursday's Halftime Report, said the decline in FB shares is a "screaming opportunity" for would-be buyers. (This writer is long FB.)

Narendra basically indicated this week's Facebook trouble is just a blip.

"It sounds like they were duped more than anything," Narendra contended.

He said Zuck "did a good job of being pretty direct" and "has a genuine desire to solve the problem."

We've been getting a chuckle out of these comparisons of Facebook to United Airlines (snicker) because of the the Guardian article in 2015 about Sen. Ted Cruz amount of time it took the CEO to make a statement.

Narendra said the idea that Zuck took too long to speak is "crazy." Judge persisted that they might have been "asleep at the switch" and aired clips from Roger McNamee complaining about the company's supposed nonchalance toward growing up.

"I don't know where he gets that from," Narendra said, stating McNamee "tends to make pretty dramatic comments when I have seen his interviews on television."

Judge asked if Facebook needs regulation. (A day earlier, he was warning Zuck and Sheryl to start caring about the stock price.) Narendra said it's a matter of "striking the right balance" and noted Zuck stating they've hired 15,000 people to work on security, an "astonishing number."

"Does Boeing and Raytheon have that many folks focused on security?" Narendra asked, tossing in JPM too and saying that kind of Facebook investment "says a lot."

Narendra said calls for Zuck to resign are "bananas." As for buying FB, "I think it's a screaming opportunity," Narendra said, likening it to AAPL perhaps trading in 2016 as a "deep value stock."

Narendra also suggested a bit of irony, stating, "Mark and his team, uh, like most of Silicon Valley, is liberal by nature," so it's "gotta be surreal" for them to be accused of swinging the election for Donald Trump. (Now we're getting to what this is all about.) (Why don't Trump foes simply distribute their own fake news and Jedi-Mind-Trick members of Congress into impeaching this fellow?)

After the Narendra interview, Judge promised that panelists would opine on the stock. But after the commercial break, Judge cut to Donald Trump's remarks on tariffs.

Eventually, Jon Najarian said he went back and read that 2015 Guardian article on Ted Cruz he thinks FB shares could see "considerably more pressure."

Josh Brown, though, told Judge "they'll find a way past this." But Brown said he looked up one of Narendra's assertions and said JPM has 43,000 employees "in what's called fortress control positions."

Brown said Facebook "margins are going to contract" as a result of addressing this.

Not clear if Brad Gerstner scooped Judge on anything else on Thursday

Erin Browne opened Thursday's Halftime stating it's a question of whether Donald Trump is "imposing" or "proposing" new tariffs.

Jon Najarian said that point is "spot-on."

"Basically what you have now is curve-flattening," said Josh Brown, who said yield plays are actually holding up the strongest in this market.

Pete Najarian said we need to "get from the unknown to the known."

"Trump is really using this as a negotiation tactic," Erin Browne opined.

Josh Brown claimed the market really can "stabilize" and even "rally" without technology leading the way, suggesting maybe "momentum players" start leaving tech stocks for, perhaps, energy (snicker).

Pete said that there's a "disconnect" in that energy prices have rallied but the stocks haven't, and "sooner or later" that'll catch up.

Judge noted, "Rates are going DOWN."

Erin Browne noted the change in the Atlanta Fed GDP prediction. A few weeks ago, Judge scoffed at those forecasts, only to have Kevin Hassett of the White House accuse him of trying to "attack" the data. Judge said he "certainly" wasn't using the term "attack." Hassett said that's what it sounded like to him.

Jeremy Siegel: China holding U.S. intellectual property as ‘ransom’

Jeremy Siegel on Thursday's Halftime said tariffs and the "long-run hawkish stance of the Fed" (snicker) is a "1-2 punch" to the stock market.

Judge repeated that he thinks Powell sounded like a short-term dove and long-term hawk.

"I was really quite impressed with him," Siegel admitted.

Judge noted the market recovered a little bit as Kayla Tausche spoke about tariff details before the president's remarks.

Judge questioned if it's a "bull market-killing scenario if a trade war (snicker) fully erupts?"

Siegel said it looks like a "measured step" and asserted, "China does hold U.S. companies, uh, pay a ransom of intellectual property for entry into the world's 2nd-biggest economy (sic grammar). That is really against WTO," and there's some "good cause" for Donald Trump to try to "correct that."

Now we’re talking about China. How come we don’t talk about Greece? omg, they’ll NEVER accept austerity!!!!!

Donald Trump, in remarks aired on Thursday's Halftime Report, says "reciprocal" is the word he wants everyone to remember in his trade and tariff machinations.

Kayla Tausche said there's a "different quality to this announcement" than the tariff thing a few weeks ago.

Jon Najarian concluded, "The unknown is now the known, um, as best as it can be known, Scott."

Josh Brown said China has bigger concerns actually. "They're militarizing the Pacific Ocean," Brown stated, adding they'll probably "take this in stride."

Pete Najarian's final trade was GILD. Doc said AA. Erin Browne said XLK.

[Wednesday, March 21, 2018]

Did Judge really float the idea of FB falling to 97? (As company gets 3rd day of free publicity on CNBC)

Every so often, it takes this page an extra day to catch on to something.

Wednesday, it occurred to us that during Tuesday's Halftime chat with Paul Meeks, Judge actually issued a potentially stark outcome for Facebook shares, under the cover of reading "some people." (This writer is long FB.)

"Look, I have read some people today saying that if Facebook doesn't get its act together and take this issue more seriously than it has, shares could lose 50%," Judge said.

Who are these "some people" who think you'll be able to buy FB under $100?

Analyst says he just realized that Facebook’s management is poor after reading 2015 Guardian article on Ted Cruz

Brad Gerstner, best known on the Halftime Report for claiming his deal with the United Airlines board will go down as a case study at Harvard Business School, told Judge on Wednesday's Halftime, "I scooped you on Twitter just a few minutes ago."

1) We figured out the "scoop" amounted to Gerstner tweeting a Warren Buffett quote, and 2) Isn't Judge scared that his tweets will be data-mined by a British company linked to the Donald Trump campaign which could send TWTR in half if they don't take this problem seriously?

Gerstner said FB is a great company on sale this week, that's why he bought. (He went on to say that about 5 more times.)

Judge said Zuck and Sheryl were handling this with "effectively radio silence." Gerstner said, "First, I take issue with this idea of radio silence," citing "several statements" from the company.

Gerstner curiously claimed, "We're certainly gonna have to weather some headline risk over the course of the next several weeks and months." Really. What are those headlines going to say?

Judge said Bill Miller says "this too shall pass" and that FB is "too cheap."

Judge asked Gerstner about Brian Acton's comments. Gerstner said, "Obviously this will impact engagement." Really? Looks to us like massive free advertising thanks to CNBC and the rest of the news media.

But Gerstner said other tech giants survive controversy. "We have other proxies for this," he said, pointing to "deleteuber."

Judge told Gerstner with a straight face that Zuck and Sheryl "better care" about the stock price because ... perhaps Brad Gerstner could've scooped him on this too ... stock is a big form of compensation in Silicon Valley.

Gerstner paused and stated "great management teams weather storms like this."

Jon Najarian called the stock "a little too hot to handle right here." But Doc mentioned how someone bought a big spread in the morning when FB was 165.

Doc seemed to think Gerstner was taking this controversy too lightly. "I don't think he really ever addressed Sheryl or Mark not coming out and talking about this head-on. They're dodgin'," Doc asserted.

Judge said, "To this point they are," but he's heard from "a few" investors who are buying the dip. (He has also "read some people" who suggest a $90-something price might be in the cards. #scoop)

Sarat Sethi said he owns a lot of FB and so he hasn't bought more; he suggested "the opportunity here could be more down the road." (But Paul Meeks said if you don't care about losing money short term, you can buy now.)

Jim Lebenthal said the thing to worry about is "government intervention" (snicker) (Joe says it's international expansion) and even pointed to QCOM's (snicker) government trouble.

Jim asserted, "To think that this stock is untouchable, or any stock is untouchable by governments, I think is false."

We'll take the other side of that. If Jim thinks Maxine Waters and Elizabeth Warren are more relevant to everyday people than free Prime shipping and Instagram, he's living on Mars.

Pete Najarian said this is a "very interesting time for Facebook. ... I don't think that they've gotten in front of it." But then Pete trumpeted Instagram.

Brian Wieser, who calls FB a sell, beamed in via London and said "this is frankly a new risk that I hadn't considered" and said his sell rating is unrelated to this week's problems.

The Facebook-sucks campaign that CNBC has been enabling all week finally jumped the shark when Wieser declared, "I dare anyone read the December 2015 Guardian article, the one about the Ted Cruz campaign ... ask yourself, is that a mark of good management."

Wieser insisted "there are limits to growth" of digital ads and limits to FB's share. Yet a bloke just a day earlier (see below) said Facebook gets 3 times as many dollars for its ads as it got a year ago.

Sarat Sethi said it's a company that's "going to be around for a long time." Wieser repeated the notion that FB's management actually really isn't any good.

Wieser said he'd rather own Alphabet. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Jim recommended ROKU on Feb. 22, predicted it ‘will be back’ at 50

Jeff Kilburg on Wednesday's Halftime Report said the Iran nuclear agreement is giving a boost to crude.

Scott Nations said 66 is "absolutely" in the cards for oil; he'd expect 66.66 to be resistance.

Richard Fisher said a rate hike Wednesday would be "definitely the right move." Rick Rieder claimed, "This is maybe the most interesting Fed meeting since the crisis."

Judge actually with a straight face suggested a "possible trade war."

Sarat Sethi called CELG a buy but admitted he was buying around 110 and 100. Jim Lebenthal said "it's certainly cheap," but "why now."

But Jim thinks CELG is actually a takeover candidate even though the JPMorgan analyst doesn't seem to think so.

Jim said AGN is a "case study" of a health care/pharma/bio stock that keeps going down.

Jon Najarian said if CELG gets into a 90-96 gap, "it's gonna just start floatin' to the upside, I think."

Doc said RIG April 10 calls got bought. Doc said someone was buying DAL April 58 calls and selling the 61s. Sarat Sethi's final trade coincidentally was DAL.

Pete Najarian said someone likes September 40 GM calls. But Pete's not in those calls; he owns the stock.

Pete's final trade was WYNN based on May 185 calls. Doc said THO. Jim said XLE. Jim didn't mention his massive bust of trumpeting ROKU last month in the low 40s. (This writer is long ROKU.) Judge wasted time explaining who Melissa Lee is.

[Tuesday, March 20, 2018]

Weiss sells Alphabet while Judge knows someone taking ‘full advantage’ of FB’s fall

Once again, Judge on Tuesday's Halftime buried the lede, this time at the end of a conversation 3/4 of the way through the program.

Rob Kischuk was telling Judge that other companies could expose a lot more Facebook data and that Facebook is the only data platform where someone off the street can create an app and collect user data themselves. (This writer is long FB.)

Then he said of Facebook, "Their ad prices have actually tripled over the past year."

"Tripled"? Is there any other conceivable entity in the world that is getting 3 times the advertising dollars it was getting a year ago?

Joe Terranova repeated his point from Monday that FB's problem is international.

Steve Weiss took viewers through his trading day, revealing, "I sold part of my Google position today. Most of it actually. It was a great trade. And I was up. Now I'm down on it. But I've kept a little bit. I'd like to buy it again, but it was such a new position, I said, 'Why take the risk?' It's not going anywhere." (This writer is long GOOGL.)

The clunker was when Paul Meeks told Judge, "I'm a little bit worried about tech in the short term." He followed that up with, "Now, longer term, for someone that's actually not worried about uh losing some principal in the very short term. In the longer term, I think the fundamentals are strong and strengthening."

Of course, longtime readers of this page know that comment makes not an ounce of sense. If one thinks the market or a stock is going down short term, it makes zero sense to buy the market or a stock now for the long term.

Joe Terranova actually said Meeks is "correct" about the short-term/long-term thing. (Sigh. Whatever.)

Judge said he knows of "at least one person" who was buying the FB dip on Monday and "taking full advantage of the pullback yesterday." How in the world could that person have taken "full advantage" of Monday's selloff when it sold off a lot more on Tuesday??

Who knows, maybe Larry Kudlow will end up running the Justice Department

Eamon Javers on Tuesday's Halftime reported someone else's report that Gary Cohn was considered for CIA chief.

In clips aired during the program, Donald Trump called the Texas bomber "obviously a very very sick individual" and said "a lot of bad things are happening in Iran."

Judge demanded the panel tell him when things get "prettier" for GE.

"I don't know when it gets prettier," admitted Steve Weiss.

Jim Lebenthal said if you own GE, "I think you bail. ... It is a falling knife."

Joe Terranova even said of GE, "Why do we assume that it has to turn around?"

Joe warned about the "incredibly challenged" GE balance sheet.

Judge said "we're not talking about every business line across this conglomerate as being a piece of garbage."

Joe said, "You're ignoring what I'm saying."

Google SVP Philipp Schindler told Julia Boorstin, "We see no indication of this type of abuse on our systems."

Paul Meeks suggested a possible "great string of outperformance the next couple years in REITs."

Jon Najarian, who had a quiet show, said July 190 calls in CI were popular.

Pete Najarian said ALB April 100 calls were suddenly getting bought; he suggested options as a way of playing this type of name that maybe hasn't bottomed. (This writer is long ALB and regrets being long this piece of garbage every day.)

Jim Iuorio said 64.40 is oil's "near-term objective," longer term probably up to 66.

Box chief Aaron Levie got to chat with Deirdre Bosa and chuckled about getting interrupted by Donald Trump news.

Doc's final trade was EWZ. Weiss said MSFT. Jim said WGO could have a good earnings report. Joe said XLE and FANG (the energy stock, not the now-disgraced tech giants).

[Monday, March 19, 2018]

How many fewer people posted something on Facebook on Monday?

The scapegoat for the who-Jedi-Mind-Tricked-voters-in-Wis.-Pa.-Mich.-(Minn. but he still lost that state)-into-voting-for-Donald-Trump-seriously routine got kicked in the teeth on Monday when Facebook took a stock market pounding over data mining. (This writer is long FB.)

Josh Brown on Monday's Halftime efficiently explained what happened and suggested the effect on FB shares may be Europeans stating, "OK guys, this is more information than we want of our citizens being used um to then target them for ads. ... Europe is usually first in these things. ... That is what the risk is here."

Steve Weiss said he recently got out of the shares because he sensed "there was too much of a narrative building on this stock" while admitting he "didn't see this event."

He said he doesn't see a "real risk in the U.S.," but he associates the stock with geopolitical risk, "which is usually a buying opportunity."

Brown though cautioned that "Microsoft, it took more than a decade for the multiple on the stock to recover." (Yes, but what they're really trying to do is figure out how the election was rigged; note that even Democrats demanding recounts of purportedly Russian-hacked county precincts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania on Nov. 9 and 10 threw in the towel within days.)

Judge claimed regarding FB, "We find ourselves talking about the possibility of more regulation."

Marc Lasry, who sat in with the panel and only said "at the end of the day" once or twice, explained FB's business model: "It sells information."

Joe Terranova suggested the issue is, "Will these social media companies be able to internationally expand. And that's a very important question." Joe said the U.S. regulatory risk isn't as great as that in U.K. or "overseas."

Jon Najarian stated, "This is a critical level for the stock. ... Certainly it's gonna test into the mid-160s on this move if, if it doesn't hold here."

But he noted 170-ish has been support previously. Doc suggested selling a put spread with "a limited amount of risk ... because it has bounced 3 times, right at this level."

Judge floated the possibility of Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg being summoned to D.C.; "Next time, they may be there." (Sure. The public wants likable congresspeople changing how they use their free Facebook product.)

Weiss said, "The bigger issue is Facebook fatigue. Does that ever occur. Do people spend less time on it." (We don't know, but we do know that we hear that argument about every 12 to 18 months on CNBC, usually regarding young people (until SNAP went public and then we were told that Mark Zuckerberg was crushing SNAP) and somehow, Facebook is still here.)

Josh Brown suggested this type of Facebook incident is the price for sharing things on the Internet. "A lot of this is on us. We've traded, um, our privacy away for convenience," Brown said.

Joe said, "Let's not be naive enough to think that this is, maybe not to the magnitude, but this isn't the first that time this has happened."

Doc stressed, "This is not the same as a credit card breach." Judge agreed, "It's not a data breach. That's what they said. ... Everyone provided their information; no systems were infiltrated, no passwords or sensitive pieces of information were stolen or hacked."

Josh Brown bought into the Soviets-rigged-it-for-Trump theory, stating, "Part of it is on people who are taking uh data without our permission, scraping it from our friends' profiles, and using very sophisticated tools to weaponize it, to change our opinion about things."

Yes, all of those exit polls quoted people saying, "I love Hillary Clinton. I can't get enough. I have no idea why I marked my ballot for Donald Trump."

Lasry said, "At the end of the day, all people have to do is say, 'Don't use my information.'"

Scott Devitt suggested taking "a step back" to look at "what the real issue is here" and explained, "The risk here is that Facebook is not focused enough on its product or its user." (Zzzzzzzzz)

Judge said, "They're proving once again they cannot self-regulate." Devitt said, "I think regulation in every industry is ultimately bad."

Lasry suggested FB is just a "utility" (snicker).

Josh Brown suggested that in social media, TWTR "might have less to lose."

After hanging up with Devitt, Judge suddenly opted for bluntness, suggesting "the whole narrative" of the FB story has changed.

Joe Terranova impressively pointed out FB has 43 buys, 3 holds and 2 sells with a 225 12-month target.

Marc Lasry: Larry Kudlow won’t be delivering ‘differing opinions’

Those optimistic that Larry Kudlow might make a difference in Washington perhaps might take a listen to Marc Lasry's commentary on Monday's Halftime Report.

Lasry said of Gary Cohn's departure, "I actually thought that was a negative."

He said Gary concluded, "There's no point in my being here." (Well, with this president, that's basically true.)

As for the new guy, Lasry said, "I think what you want on a- with a president is you want people who are gonna give differing opinions. I don't get the impression that Kudlow is gonna be doing that."

Actually, we're not really sure what Lasry means. Kudlow's opinion will be predictable, but it will be different than Peter Navarro, who is also predictable.

Judge asked if people were "over their skis" on the purported trade war and that it's actually good to point out as the administration has that these trade deals "stink."

Lasry said "there's a lot of different ways" Donald Trump could've accomplished what he was trying to accomplish.

Meanwhile, Lasry claimed, "The thing that moves these markets now is more geopolitical issues." And we thought it was the 10-year spiking.

Steve Weiss noted the 10-year at 2.83; "there's no inflation."

Lasry predicted "at least 2 or 3" hikes from the Fed. "As long as it's growing above 2, I think what you're gonna find is they'll keep raising rates," he said.

Josh Brown said aside from FB, there's been "monster gains in the other FAANG names." Judge said, "If they don't last, you better hope that somebody else comes along and leads the pack" (snicker).

Weiss: QCOM is ‘No. 1 value trap on the Street’

Judge on Monday's Halftime Report said the Call of the Day was Morgan Stanley's underweight on QCOM. Only Jim Lebenthal (who wasn't on the show) cares about the stock; Weiss called it "the No. 1 value trap on the Street for a while, and remains that."

Judge said, "This is about as negative a note as you will ever find."

Joe Terranova said the debt levels "just don't make sense" in today's environment.

Brown said at $88 billion, "I thought this company was much bigger. ... The growth investors have been ignoring it forever."

Jon Najarian called QCOM a "don't touch."

Doc said STX April calls were popular.

Joe said there's "no sign" value names are surging to replace tech. Josh Brown noted materials were rolling over too despite having nothing to do with Donald Trump winning the election Facebook.

Judge didn't mention "Mueller" until the 50th minute of the show. Steve Weiss mentioned the recent election in Pennsylvania.

Deirdre Bosa reported on a deadly crash involving an Uber self-driving vehicle.

Marc Lasry said there are 2 big risks to the market, one of them being firing Mueller and the other being Democrats taking control of the House (snicker).

‘Lawrence’ Kudlow,
or ‘Larry’ Kudlow?

Last week, while compiling news reports about the White House hiring of CNBC's Larry Kudlow, we took note of a distinction among news organizations.

The New York Times, Washington Post, Politico and Bloomberg all referred to Mr. Kudlow as "Larry."

But Nick Timiraos and Randall W. Forsyth of The Wall Street Journal and Barron's, respectively, opted for "Lawrence," even in the headline in the case of the WSJ.

(Honestly, we should be getting paid for this kind of research.)

Back in the very early days, once in a while, this page used "Lawrence."

Here's the deal. Probably 8-10 years ago, there was some kind of group discussion on Closing Bell (or the Closing Bell equivalent of the time) involving Kudlow and several others.

One chap, we can't remember who, being quite courteous, referred to Kudlow as "Lawrence" probably twice.

Larry chuckled and said something like (not an exact quote), "What's up with this 'Lawrence'? I'm 'Larry.'"

Ever since, he's been "Larry" on this site.

Now, have we ever heard anyone say, "What's with this 'Scott'? Call me 'Judge'"? No, we've never heard anyone say "What's with this 'Scott,' call me 'Judge,'" but we do so because 1) Doc and Carl Quintanilla and some others use that term regularly, 2) It's CNBC's greatest nickname, and 3) Q's daily lead-in — "On to the Judge and the Half" — is the greatest lead-in in CNBC history.

[Friday, March 16, 2018]

Semiconductors are starting to look like the coal stocks of 2007

Pete Najarian on Friday's Halftime took up Judge's Call of the Day and said he owns WDC; "there's a lot of things going on ... in a positive way."

"It is a commodity company at the end of the day," said Stephanie Link, questioning the amount of multiple expansion; "I have a hard time chasing this."

Link prefers INTC.

Jon Najarian said WDC gross margins are "exploding" and that the Moody's rating in late January was a "fabulous call" though it wasn't a stock call.

Pete chuckled about Brian Krzanich mentioning his name in a Jim Cramer interview. Speculating as to what a CEO envisions as a price target, Pete said Krzanich is probably thinking "we got room probably to 70-75" while Pete was suggesting 60 as a point to maybe re-evaluate the stock.

Doc said ASH April 80 calls were bought while 85s were sold. (And Ordell Robbie said to Max Cherry, "Where do I put my ash?")

Pete said X April 42 calls were popular. Pete delivered an update on JBL, stating it was a "really nice trade."

Bob Iaccino recapped what he said a day earlier on Futures Now and said he had a crude short trade that he didn't actually like. Jeff Kilburg said a "rumor" of a supply drop has oil shorts on the run. "$63, that is very very important for the shorts," Kilburg said.

Doc: UAA could have
TWTR-like breakout

Judge on Friday's Halftime made a big mistake around his panel — he indicated NKE's not totally awesome.

Judge said, "It's not like things are ripping there." Pete Najarian immediately cut in, stating, "Uh, uh, I disagree right out of the gate with that one. I totally disagree."

"They're still low visibility in North America according to top analysts," Judge insisted.

"They're losing market share, no doubt about it," Pete agreed, "but Nike is growing where they need to be growing."

Pete said of the recent exec exit, "The reality is for me Scott, the company did what the company is supposed to do. They actually reacted."

Pete said if NKE had dropped $4-$5, then "buy it all day long."

Jon Najarian insisted we don't know what happened and don't want to speculate, "We know that it was apparently enough that the gentleman has stepped away."

Stephanie Link said "they have a very deep bench" and as for the shake-up, the fact Mark Parker is staying beyond 2020 "more than offsets it."

Sam Poser said it's "surprising that it happened so abruptly" at NKE and that it shakes up the succession plan. Judge said Poser didn't even get to this news in his Friday report on the stock until Page 3, "which I thought was interesting in and of itself (sic last 4 words unnecessary/redundant)."

Judge said the note flagged "serious issues" that the "swift reshuffling" is happening at a "critical time in Nike's history."

Poser insisted "North America is a big issue" for NKE despite what Pete was saying. Pete insisted, "We put too much on the North America piece." Judge said "It's 40%!"

Poser said the concerns about NKE and UAA are "2 totally different issues."

In the most interesting part of the conversation, Doc said UAA is becoming "almost like a Twitter" and that "the reward is I think much more to the upside than the risk is to the downside."

Stephanie Link said NKE expectations are "just a little bit on the high side."

Judge goes 4 days without stating GS is at or near an all-time high

Judge on Friday's Halftime said "I can't believe it's been 10 years" since JPM bought Bear Stearns. (We can believe it, seeing some of those CNBC hairstyles in all the clips from 2008 being re-aired Friday.)

Kate Moore said "I actually had the flu" and a high fever that day, and when she saw the news on TV of the Bear sales price, "I actually thought I was a little delusional."

Stephanie Link admitted, "Bear Stearns was a company that I always wanted to work at." Link noted Bear stock hit a high of 133.

Pete Najarian assessed the financial authorities in the wake of the financial crisis. "I would 100 per- say (sic) they overcorrected in terms of the, the, the regulations, yes," Pete said.

"Should we go all the way back to where we were? Absolutely not," Pete added. "But there is something in between which is where I think we should end up."

Now that's interesting. So even though we've been hearing since a week ago how great GS stock is (at an all-time high), really the government's being unfair to the sector and holding it down and bank stocks should be higher than all-time highs.

Jon Najarian claimed people were buying Bear 10 puts when the stock was in the 60s; Pete said they were buying puts in the 30s.

Meanwhile, as for current financial stocks, Pete said he had gotten out of WFC, but if it "unjustly" sold off to under $50, it's an "absolute buy."

Doc and Pete noted WFC got slammed just before the Super Bowl by Janet Yellen.

Kate Moore said the positives are "far, far, far" greater than the negatives in the banking space.

Moore said in general, "The macro data looks good." Doc hailed "record inflows to stocks."

Kate Moore's final trade was emerging markets. Jim Cramer said Intel's "storyline is gonna be autonomous vehicles." Doc said EPD. Stephanie Link said she added to GS.

EBAY vs. PYPL (Part II)

(Sigh) The PYPL short theory reared its ugly head again Friday on the Halftime Report. (This writer has no position in PYPL but has been long at times in the last 12 months.)

The youngster who won last year's Ira Sohn best-idea contest (or it's called something like that) and appeared May 9, 2017, on the Halftime Report to explain it was back Friday with Evan Sohn to trumpet this year's conference.

(Note: After considerable debate, even though he's making repeat TV appearances talking up EBAY and talking down PYPL and is even arguing with Jim Cramer, we're not going to note the name of the Sohn champ because he's still in college (though he's got a job), and it's sort of this page's practice not to include youngsters in the stock critique process.) (If we had to list all the bad calls at age 21 ... oh my.)

Judge reminded viewers Friday that last year, the Sohn champ made an EBAY long call while Jim Cramer on the same show said "maybe PayPal's a better bet."

Cramer on Friday characterized that Sohn champ's call as pro-EBAY "and, if you had to short something something against it," it would be PYPL, though "I don't wanna say it was gimmicky."

Talk about soft-pedaling it.

Judge even went out of his way to state that the Sohn champ never shorted PYPL. The champ said Friday that all he was saying last May was that "this could be a large headwind" for PayPal and said "at no point did I enter a short position, um, in PayPal."

OK, that's interesting.

Back on May 9 (check the archive), he sat in with the panel and Judge announced that the Sohn champ was calling an EBAY/PYPL pairs trade.

The champ said this: "eBay is a long, but, embedded in the idea that eBay is a long, implies that PayPal is also a short. Because there's a peer value transfer from PayPal to eBay, about $1 billion in earnings starting in 2020, in perpetuity."

Cramer took a seat then and said PYPL "perhaps is not a great short." (He was on to something. Stocks that go up 68% are bad shorts.)

The champ countered that as early as 2020, EBAY can "go out on its own and basically create a merchant of record processing system in house." Actually according to the Jan. 31 announcement, eBay is simply choosing a different partner, not creating its own system.

So, back to Friday's Halftime.

Jim Cramer said, "Both of these companies are really great."

The Sohn champ somehow couldn't resist another dig at PYPL, clamining PayPal has "sort of been saying, um, since this announcement that the eBay business for them is a loss leader, that's sort of been the language from the CFO."

"No, no, they just say it's slower growing than the other companies that- other companies that they're allowing to get into because of that (sic grammar)," Jim said.

The Sohn champ cited PayPal CFO John Rainey. Jim said, "I spoke to Dan this week, and that's just not the narrative."

We did a Google search for PayPal CFO John Rainey eBay loss leader and got no definitive hits; the term does not come up in this Rainey interview Feb. 1 with CNBC's gorgeous Deirdre Bosa, nor is it anywhere in this Wall Street Journal interview with Rainey on Feb. 18.

The Sohn champ claimed that eBay is saying it's going to get $2 billion in revenue and $500 million in operating income from this split, and, "If there really is that peer transfer from PayPal to eBay, that's about 25% of PayPal's operating income today, $500 million."

"That's not true," Jim shrugged.

The Sohn champ concluded there's "more potential" for eBay to have understated the benefits than overstated them.

"The stock's up 90%. I rest my case," Cramer said, referring to PYPL.

Back in May, this page was highly skeptical of the long EBAY/short PYPL opinion because it seemed like all of the eBay-PayPal contractual issues probably were known since the 2015 split and not a revelation at Ira Sohn, and that shorting a popular stock such as PYPL in a great market frankly sounded foolhardy.

We wouldn't have thought to make more than a passing mention of it except that the call was trumpeted as an Ira Sohn contest winner and got applauded, and we had to wonder, Is shorting PYPL what passes as an Ira Sohn winner?, and that the Sohn champ clearly sounded more interested on the Halftime Report talking up the "embedded" notion of shorting PYPL rather than being long EBAY. And then we learned Friday, he "at no point" ever shorted PYPL, he apparently just thought he should call it a short at Ira Sohn and on television.

Since that appearance early May, NFLX is up 100%; AMZN 60%; FB 23%; AAPL and GOOGL about 18%; INTC 46%; MSFT 40%; CSCO 36%, some of those paying dividends also, which EBAY does not. So he could've simply bought FAANG or thrown a dart at a grab bag of big tech stocks and would've outperformed his EBAY long (or, if you prefer, the highly negative return of a purported EBAY/PYPL pairs trade) and saved countless hours of research.

Good luck to him. Let's hope we don't have to hear about this one again.

[Thursday, March 15, 2018]

Alan Greenspan supposedly thought the WIN campaign was ‘unbelievably stupid’

Thursday's Halftime Report was so sleepy, we actually tuned out parts of it to do some chores.

Judge was live in Ft. Lauderdale for the Virtu conference, which of course means Vincent Viola and Doug Cifu but always seems to be less about the stock market than West Point.

Judge noted Vinnie was on the show Feb. 8. Vinnie said he's not surprised about how fast the markets have come back.

Viola called Donald Trump a "very capable market strategist" and predicted tariffs will be "rational."

He conceded "there are absolute political risks" to Donald Trump's trade policies.

Vinnie told Judge, "If you're gonna judge this president by his tonality, his tonality, uh, you're gonna have enormous, enormous, uh, subject matter, for, for sh- for shows like this." But, "He's pretty pragmatic."

Vinnie said Gary Cohn's goals for the country were "either achieved or well on their way to being achieved." (Except for that non-tariff thing.)

Vinnie said there's a "very very high level of efficient communication" between the White House and key legislators.

Vinnie even mentioned the "post-WIN era" and defined WIN, telling Judge and Joe that "You guys are a little too young." Judge probably is, but Joe's probably old enough to recall the WIN buttons trumpeted by Jerry Ford.

Judge's mike got botched a bit when Glenn Hutchins came on. Hutchins said he knows Larry Kudlow well, "And we have a fundamental difference of opinion about, uh, taxes. ... I think tax cuts were, um, ill-advised. ... All we're doing is borrowing the money from the future. We didn't pay for 'em."

Hutchins said there's "no evidence" taxes are the reason for slower-than-usual growth, saying it's "much more likely" due to global productivity and "demographics" issues.

Hutchins said stocks aren't in short-term "peril" for 3 reasons we didn't bother to note; he kind of listed 3 reasons for everything.

Judge asked Doug Cifu about Virtu being the victim of "some sort of scam" in which someone pushed a cryptocurrency "Virtcoin." Cifu chuckled that the picture of him was a "really good-looking" millennial but noted "there's a lot of bad actors out there."

Judge also brought in Heisman winner Pete Dawkins. Pete said there's a "real tension" with North Korea but didn't answer Judge's question about whether Donald Trump's apparent summit is the "right strategy."

Judge asked if Jong Un "deserves" a platform with the U.S. president. Dawkins said he "might have wished" that this had taken "a more conventional approach."

Bertha Henry said people move to Florida for taxes and the climate. Henry said she feels "pretty good" about Broward County's chances of landing Amazon's HQ2.

[Wednesday, March 14, 2018]

With all due respect, have to ask: What will Larry Kudlow do differently than what Gary Cohn was doing?

The big news on Wednesday's Halftime Report came at the end, when Eamon Javers reported that Larry Kudlow has accepted an offer from Donald Trump.

First of all, we're 100% in Larry's corner and very much hope he succeeds.

Nobody doubts Larry is highly credentialed and highly capable of succeeding in this position.

A lot of people have spoken of being impressed by Donald Trump privately, only to find themselves in a blender of incompetency in the White House.

Some of us can't help but wonder if the position relies far less on knowledge of price elasticity and far more on telling a certain person, "Gee Donald, you're awesome."

If Larry thinks Donald Trump is interested in tariff theory, well, then ...

Like we said, 100% in Larry's corner and hoping he succeeds. We compiled the mainstream media's assessment of this hire on our home page.

On the Halftime Report, Jon Najarian said he had encouraged Larry to pursue the position because he's a "calming voice" for the president. "He is the right guy at the right time, I think," Doc said.

Pete Najarian said Larry is "not gonna get pushed around."

Jim Lebenthal noted, "There's been one heckuva revolving door at the White House."

Jim Cramer said Larry is "hard to hate" because he's "so gentlemanly in the way he argues."

Larry spoke to Kelly and Wilf on Closing Bell. Tim Seymour on Closing Bell said he's "a yes buyer on Larry Kudlow" and offered congrats but launched into a way-too-clumsy assessment of the state of world trade that only belabored the interview.

Karen Finerman on Closing Bell, like Seymour addressing both Evans/Frost and Larry himself, said, "I mean I love Larry. I gotta say, going into today, I'm long a lot of puts, I didn't love the Gary Cohn change, but out of everyone out there, I am most excited about this choice. I think it's outstanding. I think he'll do a great job. I think he will do a very great job, not just on policy, but on the other part you talked about, communication. Which is maybe equally or sometimes more important. You have the skills to do both. So I think you're an outstanding choice."

Larry on Closing Bell stated, "The deficits are gonna take care of themselves, please! They're gonna take care of themselves!"

Kevin O’Leary questions how professional investors can be long TWTR

In a lumpy opening to Wednesday's Halftime, Kevin O'Leary actually claimed investors would start moving to "safety" and choose dividend plays within the tech sector.

Jim Lebenthal complained again about lumping in GOOGL and AAPL with the FAANGs. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Jim indicated it's not in Donald Trump or China's interest to fight. "A trade war decimates both sides," Jim said.

And we'll just say, anyone who's selling this market out of fears of a trade war is a bona fide chucklehead.

Yana Barton said leadership is similar to 2017, and tech has been outperforming the market, that's why she likes it.

Pete Najarian questioned Barton about liking PANW and CRM with high multiples. Barton said they're capable of "significant sales-growth opportunity."

Barton said if TWTR can attract a larger user base, "There are a lot more that can go right than wrong."

Kevin O'Leary said he agrees with half of Barton's names but questions her interest in Twitter. He said people talk about it every day, but "the company can't seem to monetize that."

Jim Lebenthal said the bull case for TWTR is that "people think it's gonna do what Facebook did."

O'Leary scoffed, "How can a professional that has to put money in harm's way ever allocate to that thing. It is a dog."

As usual with the GM bull call, backers can’t explain a single product that anyone’s buying

Jim Lebenthal on Wednesday's Halftime said he likes Adam Jonas' bullish F call (not the one about the great transfer of wealth from insurance companies to Houston car owners), but Jim prefers GM, because "they are ahead of Ford" on autonomous and electric vehicles and ride-sharing.

Pete Najarian said he owns GM and not F, but now "I'm curious."

Kevin O'Leary said he's not at all interested in F because it's the "back-end caboose" of all the automotive trends.

Pete Najarian said HIG April 55 calls got bought by someone.

Jon Najarian said 87.50 calls in PYPL were getting bought. Judge said the CEO would be on Cramer's show.

Jim Lebenthal said he'll have to take a "hard look" at adidas because it's "firing on all cylinders."

Doc said SIG did a kitchen sink quarter, which people thought had already happened in November.

Pete said he loves BABA more than AMZN.

Scott Nations said we're in the middle of the copper range. Anthony Grisanti said "it looks good for Dr. Copper right now."

Pete's final trade was IGT. Doc said MON. Jim said DKS.

[Tuesday, March 13, 2018]

We like Larry and want him to succeed. Are we going to be cringing at Larry’s humiliation by, say, early June?

Eamon Javers said at the top of Tuesday's Halftime Report that Larry Kudlow has come around to the idea of tariffs as a "negotiating tactic" (snicker). (Has he come around to making fun of 1) Barack Obama and 2) China as the only job description?)

Jon Najarian said the markets were just making a "small move" on the Tillerson news and that it didn't seem like a "big shocker" to the market.

Jon Najarian said of Larry Kudlow's potential new job, "I suspect it's already been offered to him, it's just a matter of time." (Well of course. The Farr-cast broke it a day ago. Only Eamon Javers is waiting for "guidance.")

Doc said even Canada now is following Donald Trump's lead as far as going after China on dumping aluminum and steel.

We're not even mentioning the QCOM thing because 1) the show hardly even mentioned it and 2) only Jim Lebenthal cares about this name, but Karen Finerman seemed taken aback (see below).

Tom Lee called rising rates "a positive tailwind for markets" and said he'd buy the pullbacks.

Joe Terranova said sentiment is "incredibly optimistic," but he said if the Republican lost in the Pennsylvania race, then there's actually "risk" to economic policies.

Stephanie Link said Donald Trump doesn't want a debate about State Department stuff but does want debate among economic advisers. (And here we thought it was a Chauncey Gardiner situation.)

Joe Terranova curiously stated, "There's been no response from the Chinese just yet."

Judge said that just because they haven't responded, it doesn't mean "they're all fine and good" with what's going on.

Joe said he would've expected "a little bit more of a linguistic response" by now.

Karen Finerman on the 5 p.m. Fast Bitcoin said she's "very concerned" about U.S. trade policy, "the most concerned I've been in a while, and I think we are just one hot inflation number away from a very significant market selloff."

But Karen conceded that Donald Trump watches the stock market, and that could be the "loudest voice" against his most unpopular policies.

Joe’s sensational suit is show’s best outfit in weeks

Judge on Tuesday's Halftime said Stephen Tusa cut GE to 11.

"I totally agree with him," Stephanie Link said, citing the power division's struggle.

Judge asked Link to name stocks she likes better than GE (snicker); Link didn't seem to think there was enough time but said she likes UNP, FDX, UPS, CAT, CMI, HDS, PH.

Joe Terranova said he owns HON and thinks GE looks "incredibly complicated."

Jon Najarian said he likes CAT and "many of the rails."

Joe seemed to think infrastructure was a big deal during the election and apparently should become a priority. #biggovernmentwarning.

Often Karen Finerman is the Halftime/Fast Money best-dressed of the day, but Tuesday, Joe overachieved.

Judge suddenly curious as to whether calls get bought on upgrades

Jon Najarian on Tuesday's Halftime cited CWH September 40 call-buying.

Doc also said April 33 DVN calls were getting bought. Pete Najarian said May 55 MRK calls were getting bought. Pete said March 30 calls in JBL were interestingly being bought with earnings ahead.

Judge claimed to be interested in when the MRK activity happened given that the stock got upgraded on Monday. Pete said it was "definitely after" the upgrade. (The real question is whether some genius who already made money in the calls was "trading up" to a higher strike further out.)

Joe Terranova said he'd like to buy CVS, but it just trades "so poorly."

Stephanie Link said HDS is a "good story for this year."

Doc said he thinks Cowen is right about CENX and that it has a 31 target.

Tom Lee said he likes tech.

Here’s the ‘burlap’ suit Josh Brown was wearing that had everyone howling for days. Looks good to us.

Dom Chu reported on Tuesday's Halftime that DKS apparently hung UAA out to dry with CEO comments.

Jon Najarian said UAA is still not inexpensive and said Dick's is saying positive things about its private brands.

Joe Terranova said he's maintaining his "small position" in UAA that he has established in the last couple weeks.

Joe said for DKS to blame everything on UAA is "just incredibly foolish" and suggested other factors.

Judge doesn’t talk about
Motif Investing anymore

Brian Stutland on Tuesday's Halftime told Jackie DeAngelis he worries about the demand picture for oil. Jim Iuorio said "60's the line in the sand," and he thinks it'll resolve itself to the upside.

Tom Lee acknowledged he's overweight energy. Joe Terranova said there's a "higher floor" under crude than 18-24 months ago.

Stephanie Link called airlines "trading stocks" and grumbled that "every day they take all of your time."

Joe said UA has bounced back from when they were talking about it around 60.

Stephanie Link said EL management sounds "so good." She said to "absolutely" buy on a pullback.

Joe said he could see KORS at 75. Stephanie said NKE is more than half the multiple of UAA.

Jon Najarian said he likes the RL outperform 125 call.

Stephanie Link lamented missing TIF. "It's on my radar for sure," Link said.

Joe said he could see PVH 175.

Tom Lee's final trade was "value-style investing" and said it includes tech. Doc said EAT. Stephanie Link said JNJ. Joe said it was going to be KSS, then he hailed AAPL while declaring the race to $1 trillion being on.

[Monday, March 12, 2018]

What if AMZN (or AAPL or MU or NFLX or something else) experiences a ‘superspike’?

In a convincing pronouncement, Sarat Sethi on Monday's Halftime said if you want to beat the market, "you have to be in tech," including names such as AAPL and GOOGL. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Ian Winer said, "As they grow bigger in the index, it's sort of feeding on itself."

Judge said you could've bought AAPL a month ago at 150, for those who trade with time machines. Joe Terranova said he bought at 158 and said he thinks Doc bought around 152. Steve Weiss trumpeted MU and WDC and said he's long MU.

Ian Winer mentioned "unbelievable" M&A in the semi space and added that "Everybody's long Micron." (Apparently everyone got a lot longer on Monday.)

Guy Adami on the 5 p.m. Fast Bitcoin said it's "not farfetched" to envision MU at 100 in 6 months.

Steve Weiss on the Halftime Report said he's been thinking about "adding to my bank stocks" (Zzzzzzz) because they've been recent laggards.

Mel suggests NFLX shorts will end up in face-ripped-off land

In one of the weakest short calls we've seen recently, Andrew Left dialed in to Monday's Halftime explaining his assessment of NFLX.

On the one hand, Left tried to make a moat argument, stating, "Apple can do what Netflix does. But can Netflix do what Apple does?"

On the other hand, Left seemed to be making a simple valuation call, stating, "I'm short the name, because it did get ahead of itself."

Left said if NFLX fell to 270, it's "still a helluva move for a stock this year."

Judge noted Left's argument about NFLX not having a moat and said "maybe I'll give you that," but Steve Weiss wouldn't.

Weiss said the moat is the subscriber base and "the reputation they've built up for original programming," and he called Left's argument "specious" because Netflix's thing is not what Apple is focused on.

Left said NFLX has been "given the leash to lose money." Weiss said so has Amazon. "Amazon has created a more definitive moat," Left insisted.

Weiss grumbled, "I long for the days when short selling was more of a skill and you could pick an identifiable catalyst rather than preying on valuations because of your reputation."

Left retorted, "I pine for the days when buying stocks was more of a skill and not just a play on momentum."

Both of those sentiments seem straight from 1982.

Joe Terranova asked Left where he gets out if the stock goes higher. "Good question. Uh, I'll scale it back as it goes higher," Left said.

Mel on the 5 p.m. Fast Bitcoin took up Left's NFLX short and even invoked one of our favorite cliches, and it was cute: "Don't you get your face ripped off when you short this thing?"

David Stockman mocks Larry Kudlow’s approach to deficits before Joe urges infrastructure program

Much of Monday's Halftime Report was devoted to the prospect of Larry Kudlow taking a job that will last for about 3 months joining the Donald Trump administration.

"The president has spoken to Larry," said Jim Cramer, credited by CNBC for reporting that Kudlow is apparently leading the list to succeed Gary Cohn.

"The president does have differences with Larry," Cramer added.

"You know he's liked on Wall Street," Jim said.

Joe Terranova noted "Larry Kudlow is all about King Dollar" and said Larry would "restart" the infrastructure-bill conversation.

Steve Weiss said adding Larry would be "very positive" for the White House.

Judge invited Great-Grandpa David Stockman to opine; Stockman called Larry a "great free-market and consistent free-market thinker and free trader."

But that wasn't the whole story. Stockman said Larry will be a good voice on tariffs but complained that on fiscal issues, "Larry's the wrong voice. Larry doesn't believe deficits are a problem. Larry thinks you can grow your way out."

Joe Terranova said, "This country is in the need of an infrastructure bill. We need to rebuild our infrastructure," unfortunately one of those big-government slogans that doesn't really mean anything, like saying, "We should feast tonight" simply because mother nature requires human beings to eat.

Ian Winer asked Joe, "How are we gonna finance an infrastructure plan without hurting the dollar more." Joe said the deficit as a percentage of GDP is 3.5%, and "it was 10% just 10 years ago," so if it were to modestly rise to 5%, "I would argue that the economy can withstand that."

Say it ain't so.

Sarat Sethi said hiring Larry would "give investors a lot of comfort."

Judge doesn’t realize GS 2018 is like NYT 1998

On Monday's Halftime Report, Judge continued his streak of stating GS hit a "new all-time high today."

What he didn't say was that the real center of the financial universe is on the American West Coast, that investment banks and Wall Street are never going to be like Gekko's 1987 movie again, that at some point one of these West Coast companies will have 10 times as much cash as GS' market cap and will buy it just for the heck of it, etc.

Stephen Weiss said it's a "great decision" to elevate David Solomon.

Weiss said he wouldn't buy adidas into earnings.

Pete Najarian said KMB July 120 calls were getting scooped up.

Ian Winer said to sell HOG rallies based on the tariff issue and "demographic shift."

Sarat Sethi said NWL has a lot of debt; he'd stay away.

Joe Terranova said he doesn't see DKS overcoming problems the way BBY did. Weiss said he likes DKS though he'd prefer to wait for a dip.

Sarat Sethi said ULTA "could be interesting." He said he owns M and Hudson's Bay, which we think is traded in Canada.

Ian Winer said to watch DG because "I see Dollar Tree blowin' up" and Big Lots too, and consumer debt is at an "all-time high."

Joe's final trade was MSFT over 100. Weiss said JD. Sarat said XPO. Ian Winer said DHI.

Mike Farr says he knew the Larry Kudlow ‘news’ last Thursday

CNBC spent Monday morning trumpeting Jim Cramer's supposed scoop that Larry Kudlow is in the lead for Gary Cohn's old White House job.

But on the Halftime Report, Mike Farr indicated he had the scoop as far back as last Thursday.

Farr said his Farr-cast was talking up Larry last week; Farr's political analyst "called the White House" and was told that Kudlow "was in the lead."

Farr said Larry Kudlow is "kind of a perfect choice" for this post and would supply "adult supervision," which would make Larry about the 5th or 6th individual who supposedly could supply that ingredient to the White House.

Using the term "guidance" about 5 or 6 times, CNBC's Eamon Javers said there's "no guidance yet" that a decision has been made and that the White House apparently will "take their time."

Javers suggested Donald Trump wants someone who disagrees but "who if overruled, uh, will fall into line."

Much more from Monday's Halftime later.

[Friday, March 9, 2018]

Judge tripped up by curious recollection of TARP

Prior to the Goldman Sachs news breaking Friday, Judge must've been planning on Burger King for lunch, because he sure was serving up Whoppers when Dick Bove dialed in.

Challenging Bove's negative assessment of Lloyd Blankfein, Judge gushed about Goldman Sachs in the 2008 crisis "not taking government capital in the way that it didn't."

Honestly, before the sentence (or double-negative fragment) was even finished, heads were being scratched around CNBCfix HQ, as in, What IS he talking about?

Bove immediately noticed the terminology and demanded, "What are you talking about not making- not taking government capital. It was a huge amount of government capital ... if the Fed didn't re- lend that money to the company, the company wouldn't be in existence. I mean, come on. Take a look at the numbers."

"I wanna take a look at history," Judge claimed, but his history book apparently was Jay Ward's Fractured Fairy Tales.

Dick explained that the Fed lent GS "a staggering amount of money in 2007 and 8 so it wouldn't go under." (Actually we don't think it was in 2007, but we're definitely not experts on this subject.)

Eventually Steve Weiss acknowledged, "Goldman did take money from the government and did take a preferred from Buffett, the point is, that they didn't necessarily want that money ... from Buffett it was purely to show the vote of confidence that got the stock going."

"I misspoke," Judge admitted, but "that was my point."

Actually, Weiss' history book is just as warped as Judge's. (Among other things, they didn't "take" a preferred from Buffett, they issued him one.) What Weiss left out was that the government supplied the money they really DID want in the form of the AIG bailout. According to the 2008 timeline, Goldman converted to a bank holding company on Sept. 21 (basically a critical gift if not a cash windfall), then did the Buffett deal on Sept. 23, which was money they really did sorta need because Congress was still balky about bailouts at that point, and it was completely based on Buffett's correct opinion that the government wouldn't let Goldman Sachs fail.

We are 100% sure Goldman Sachs didn't want the generic TARP cash, which was voted by the Senate Oct. 1 and signed into law Oct. 3 and mandated by Hank Paulson.

GS, JPM, C: The next Macy’s, Nordstrom, New York Times?

Before we go any further on Lloyd Blankfein, including Judge's stumbles and Doc's beautifully eloquent analysis, let's cover a few concepts never mentioned on Friday's Halftime Report.

There's a gigantic "adjustment" (note: We're not using the term "transfer," because that's overstating it) of wealth in this country that's been occurring for years and is recently gaining jaw-dropping momentum.

It's the concentration of massive amounts of wealth that used to be spread around the country in many different businesses into a few select West Coast juggernauts.

There's so much money accumulating out there, 1) they don't know what to do with it, 2) people making 6 figures can't even find a decent neighborhood within 45 miles of the office, and 3) to stave off possible public backlash, the companies are deftly announcing plans to build huge job centers in Middle or South or East Coast America.

Normally, congressional outrage could help redistribute the wealth, but that's not happening here because these companies are astoundingly popular and wield far more clout than most people in D.C.

A few industries are safe from this trend. We still need oil wells and people to procure the oil, for example. To think Wall Street is safe is sort of like believing those plantation owners in the restored/deleted scenes of "Apocalypse Now."

If Silicon Valley doesn't change the way banking is done, they'll just siphon away all the brains who might've been doing it. Wall Street should think about whether Manhattan soon could conceivably look like what Neiman Marcus looks like now. It's not like 20 years from now, guys with 1590 SATs at Princeton are going to say "Yeah, I'd rather be Gekko getting great suits at Maury Sills" rather than "I'd love to be writing code in shorts while looking out the window at the Pacific Ocean" for the same $500,000 salary. And when they try to name the Goldman Sachs CEOs after Lloyd Blankfein, it'll be like naming the Washington Post editors after Ben Bradlee.

Jon Najarian: Goldman Sachs’ performance ‘has been lacking for years’

In all the haste to get the news out, Judge and Friday's Halftime producers buried the lede.

It was supplied by Jon Najarian, who unlike anyone else on the program made an absolutely eloquent and spot-on assessment of what is really happening at Goldman Sachs.

"There's a lot of pressure on Lloyd Blankfein," Doc said. "When you drop from 1st to worst which they did last July, with that 40% drop year over year in revenue on the FICC side and so forth, that's tough to survive ... I'm not a basher of Lloyd Blankfein, I agree with Andrew that he did a great job of stewarding them through that crisis, but, the performance is the bottom line. And the performance has been lacking for years. So I think the pressure finally just got to a point where he's made a decision."

Actually, he could've put it a bit more bluntly: Lloyd was underperforming.

Steve Weiss tried to pretend Najarian was off-base, shrugging, "I think he rode more than 1 bad quarter in 12 years."

"It was more than 1," Doc said.

"I'm sayin' the stock's at- near an all-time high today," Judge said for probably the umpteenth time in the program.

"Those numbers speak for themselves," agreed Steve Weiss before bizarrely adding, "It's like being a lead-paint manufacturer. Lead paint's not used anymore. Their businesses are businesses that are not as, as profitable as they used to be."

Umm, OK ... Lloyd should be commended for ... running a lead-paint-factory-like operation?

Weiss dismissed Dick Bove. "I get his game, OK. He's at a firm nobody's heard of, he's gotta make a splash and get his name out there. Great, you've done your job. But let's do some analysis," Weiss said.

How many times did Judge mention ‘all-time high stock price’? 5 or 6?

At first we thought Judge's pushback of Dick Bove on Friday's Halftime was fine interviewing, except we didn't realize that Judge was going to spend the hour auditioning as Lloyd Blankfein's agent.

Bove called the Blankfein news "wonderful" and opined, "The only bad part of this news is that uh people are talking about him staying until the end of the year. I think he should leave immediately. I don't think there's any rationale other than the Cult of Lloyd Blankfein."

Bove said that GS had revenues 10 years ago of $46 billion, and 5 years ago it was $34 billion, and now it's $32 billion. Dick said the earnings "are pathetic."

"Blankfein made one bad strategic decision after another," Dick said, stating Goldman should've bought something like Comerica (honestly, not sure how that would get anyone excited) and changed its trading activities and stressed investment banking.

Judge said that assessment sounds "a little harsh." Dick said no.

So Judge asked "why in the world did you upgrade the stock." Dick said, "Even bad managements cannot stop the chain of events."

That's a toughie. If a CEO's really bad, it's hard to justify an upgrade, but on the other hand, if it really is a rising tide ...

Wilf Frost for some reason was brought in to shoot down Dick's arguments, stating "yes there's been mistakes the last 1-3 years" but calling Bove's criticism of the Blankfein tenure "far too strong."

Dick insisted Blankfein made "very core bad decisions as we came out of the financial crisis."

By the end, Judge and Steve Weiss were also beating up on Bove, who told them, "Look, I'm an analyst, I look at the numbers, I take a look at what this company had to do to stay alive in 2007, and I don't give him credit."

All-time highs: Does Judge actually think the GS chart looks like FB’s chart?

Early in Friday's Halftime, Judge brought in Liz Hoffman and congratulated her for a "helluva scoop" on Lloyd Blankfein, even though we'd call it some of the most humdrum breaking news we've heard recently on CNBC.

Hoffman said the important thing about the story is that "Lloyd is really in control here."

Hoffman indicated the exit "could definitely slip to, to '19," which happens to be Goldman's 150th birthday. Surely that's what the wannabe successors are hoping for, that Lloyd will stick around to cut the Goldman Sachs 150 birthday cake as CEO.

Andrew Ross Sorkin said the Dow Jones report had "almost an official tone to it," but, "My sources say, that in fact actually there is no timeline that has been specified uh by Lloyd Blankfein or the board." (See what we mean? Zzzzzzzzzzz.)

Steve Weiss said GS has been "unique" before Wilf Frost inadvertently cut in. Weiss said the bench "is as deep as could be."

Jim Lebenthal said, "They have always had a turnover from one style of leader to another." Jim also said "they're starting to go downscale" from the "ultra-high-net-worth" client.

Mike Mayo noted GS used the term "pivot" for the "first time that I've ever heard" but said the company has a "very deep bench" of talent.

Apparently sensing Lloyd needs even more of a boost than he had already given, Judge concluded with Mayo saying "don't show me the sailor who's uh, you know, captaining (yes, verb) the ship, uh, in calm waters, uh, all day. Take me to the one who's got, you know, 20, 30-foot waves."

Jim Lebenthal, in an outstanding (but late) observation, said, "Scott, I don't know if I'm gonna make you mad doin' this, but I think the markets overall are far more important than $100 billion market cap Goldman Sachs."

An author is adamant that Wall Street banks were ‘literally’ going down tubes

Bill Cohan, brought in to counter Dick Bove and talk about how Lloyd Blankfein was the greatest thing since sliced bread on Friday's Halftime, told Judge, "Lloyd has run the firm with a great amount of skill and dignity."

Cohan curiously said, "I'm sure they're having a fabulous quarter." Now that's an interesting throwback. That used to be one of the biggest cliches on Fast Money, from about 2007 (when the show really started) to about 2013 or so minus a few months in 2008; someone would always opine that they're really sure GS is going to have "blowout numbers" because it was a great quarter for trading, etc.

Cohan said Marty Chavez "could be a surprise choice" as the new CEO. OK. Whatever.

Cohan basically enshrined Gary Cohn and Lloyd Blankfein on Mount Rushmore for supposedly recognizing the mortgage slide before other banks did and doing a mark-to-market of the assets.

Twice (that's correct, 2 times), Cohan used the expression "literally going down the tubes." Did anyone see Dick Fuld or John Mack actually going down a tube?

Cohan said he thinks it's "long overdue" for a woman to run a Wall Street bank, but right now, there's "no woman in position to do that" and "no woman who is, uh, in a position to be taken seriously uh to be a candidate to do that."

OK. Ruth Porat? Sheryl Sandberg? Mary Barra? Ginny Rometty? Karen Finerman? And by the way, how much skill does it really take to shake hands with Dara and say "Why not have Uber go public through us?"

Judge said GS shares had been moving "volatilely" (sic) since the news came out. Judge also referred to the "stark (sic) market."

Judge at one point also said "quivel" (sic) instead of "quibble."

Probably 50 minutes of program devoted to Lloyd Blankfein’s 2019 day planner on day S&P rises 47 points

In a show marked by a major stumble, Judge actually stood tall on Friday's Halftime with popular guest Tony Dwyer.

Mr. Retest (that would be Dwyer) said if there's a "single thing" he could tell viewers, it's "please stop trading on individual economic data series because they get revised so significantly."

Judge challenged Dwyer if he'd change his retest prediction made recently on the program. Tony said, "I will change it just to make it, you know, a very public thing because it was a public thing. If you get above 2,780 on the S&P 500-" Tony said, before adding, "Ultimately it doesn't matter!"

Judge rightly insisted "it does matter" because people use that information to make a tactical decision on the market. (If it doesn't matter, why is he on the program in the first place?)

Desperately trying to get Judge focused on the real news of the day, Jim Lebenthal stated that we "just got the all-clear signal today" to buy stocks in the form of the "Goldilocks employment report."

Dwyer later said there's a 5% risk of a retest, "but you have 20% upside."

Steve Weiss talked about getting a "preview" of the tariff announcement from Kayla Tausche on Thursday; he bought CAT and added to IUSG.

Jim Lebenthal talked up the energy sector. Doc said RRC calls were getting bought.

We were eager to get a great screen grab of Weiss and Jim going toe to toe, hands protesting in the air. But as is too often the case at Post 9, the cameraman decided to keep his distance.

[Thursday, March 8, 2018]

Someone provided Judge with numbers; someone separately created the graphic

Judge on Thursday's Halftime said WEN was upgraded by Longbow in an "interesting week" for burger stocks after MCD's downgrade (see below).

Joe Terranova suggested WEN has "maybe" taken market share from Sonic, and WEN over 5 years has also done a "fantastic job" with the balance sheet, crediting Nelson Peltz. Joe called a $20 WEN target "reasonable."

Josh Brown said "at heart," burger chains "are not growth companies" and that "capital allocation is really the story" for the ones that do well.

The screen graphic showed WEN's forward P.E. as 31x. Steve Weiss said, "So let's see if I understand this. I'm supposed to spend more on a forward-12 basis for Wendy's than Google? I mean, it makes no sense." (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Josh Brown said "there are not a lot of discount quick-service restaurant stocks right now" (snicker).

Judge curiously claimed that "you're at 16½ times uh forward." Weiss pointed out what the graphic said. "Oh did it say forward? I'm looking at 16½, maybe that's 2018," Judge said.

Huh? Whatever.

"This is a commodity business basically," Weiss shrugged.

Erin Browne said, "I think Chipotle also looks interesting here." Doc said he finds the Longbow WEN research "pretty accurate."

Doc says spinning off ESPN makes sense, then 10 seconds later says he doesn’t know if it does

Judge on Thursday's Halftime brought in Julia Boorstin for a report on the DIS meeting; Boorstin stated that Bob Iger defended the Fox acquisition and said he has no plans to change Fox Searchlight.

Judge replayed Rich Greenfield's assessment from the Monday afternoon episode of Fast Bitcoin that DIS has to go "all in" on streaming rather than "incremental."

Greenfield said they won't do that, "because going for it means disrupting earnings" of the legacy model.

Josh Brown on Thursday said, "I totally agree with that" and said Iger is "not, um, afraid to do that," citing Pixar.

This despite the fact Karen Finerman said to Greenfield on that Monday show, "If that's really the case that they don't want to take the hit now, then they must think that they could not ever take a hit? That doesn't quite make sense to me, right? ... So you're saying though they think they can buy it and not take a hit."

And Wednesday afternoon, Karen said it would be "shocking" for DIS to go all in on streaming and she's "not really comfortable" owning the stock.

Back to Thursday's Halftime, Brown claimed "Frozen" is "the biggest hit maybe in the entire history of the company." He suggested AMCX and its "ton of content" as possibly desirable by DIS.

Brown said "They announced today a 'Star Wars' live action television series that will premiere ... on the app. ... I guarantee you, even if the show's not a hit, you're gonna get a lot of people testing it and trying it out." (That's just what the world needs, another episode of "Star Wars.")

Jon Najarian said "there's a rumor that swirled" though it "didn't come from Julia of course" that DIS is contemplating spinning out the parks and ESPN.

"The ESPN side of that does eventually make some sense," Doc said, because ESPN is "what's not working right now for Disney."

Steve Weiss said, "I don't know if that makes sense to spin off ESPN," Weiss said.

In a hilariously instant reversal, Doc said, "I'm not saying it does, but I'm just saying that that is the thing that we all point to, whenever they have these blips where-" (sic end of comment).

Weiss suggested content names AMCX or DISCA. (And whatever happened to Viacom ... omg ... Sumner Redstone ... Shari Redstone ... Philippe Dauman ...)

Joe Terranova called DIS "fairly valued" and questioned if this is the market for media conglomerates.

Joe gives Halftime Report unofficial 5-year extension

Thursday's Halftime began with clips of Donald Trump's remarks; Eamon Javers said it sounds like Donald Trump is "contemplating additional, uh, loopholes and exclusions" in the tariff wars.

Javers said it's possible Gary Cohn could return to the administration; he wants to sit at the "Cabinet" table and not in the back with the advisers.

Judge said Cohn is a "front-row kind of guy."

Erin Browne said it sounds like there's "a lot more flexibility" from Donald Trump on tariffs.

Joe Terranova said the tariff announcement is just part of the NAFTA negotiation, that's "as clear as can be."

Javers added, "The president uh is sort of leading uh by tweet here, but- and leading with the rhetoric here."

"The market doesn't like this one bit," Judge said.

"I was gonna say, I'm glad everyone's getting used to the mind games now," said Josh Brown.

Joe and Josh noted that tech stocks haven't sunk during the tariff situation.

Jon Najarian said MU is up 45% since the February low.

Steve Weiss actually said, "I actually believe all the points that the president makes are valid and would be helpful to the economy."

Weiss for some reason predicted "a wild half-hour of trading as the market closes."

Erin Browne said chip gains are being fueled by "really significant earnings" and that there's even been multiple contraction over the last couple years as earnings have surged.

Weiss said he bought more WDC in the morning. "That's where the money's being made, in the momentum stocks," Weiss said.

Josh Brown said small caps might be the first to exceed the Jan. 26 high.

Joe predicted that in 5 years, "I'll have much less hair and it'll be further and further looking like snow," but they'll be talking about not just U.S. small caps but small caps in the emerging markets.

Citing the VIX, Doc said "the answer is no," the market is not worried about tariffs. Judge asked Doc if he thinks the VIX is the "best representation" about how the market feels about tariffs. Doc said yes; Judge said "I don't." Erin Browne said financials have been underperforming, a sign of concern about tariffs.

Weiss said "The market's becoming immune to all the machinations and the tweets that are coming out of Washington." Josh Brown said to play that by buying TWTR, his final trade.

David Stockman says U.S. has already gone over the cliff; too late

Brian Stutland on Thursday's Halftime said the dollar hanging onto 90 has made things difficult for oil and might continue to do so. But Anthony Grisanti said he thinks crude holds 60 on the prospect of higher gasoline demand.

Dom Chu said David Stockman (Zzzzzz) was going to be on Futures Now with a "fresh new warning" (snicker).

Jon Najarian said April 140 calls in EA got bought. Also, BHGE April 31 calls were popular.

Doc called the CI deal "an expensive one," though it's a "bold move" and he said it looks good for ESRX.

Josh Brown said COST is targeting ecommerce, though it'll "cost a lot of money," but it's "not a bad start."

Joe Terranova said KR is saying "all the wrong things" on its conference call.

Steve Weiss said DLTR is "a good pickup" down 20% from its highs.

Erin Browne said she'd stay short utilities, expecting yields will continue to rise.

Erin Browne's final trade was HEDJ. Jon Najarian said BUD. Steve Weiss said JD. Josh Brown said TWTR, calling it a "bona fide breakout." Joe said FTNT, "always an M&A potential target."

[Wednesday, March 7, 2018]

There’s apparently an opening
in the White House

Steve Weiss on Wednesday's Halftime Report made a beautiful, nearly perfect analogy to the Trump presidency.

Then someone had to butt in.

Weiss said, "This is Chauncey Gardner*, OK. This is not some brilliant economist, some brilliant strategist. You tell me who's gonna be the last person to speak to him on trade, and I'll tell you what trade policy's gonna be."

As Rob Sechan tried to cut in, Weiss said, "Hold on, one day, one day, guns, we're outlawing all of 'em, next day, great meeting with the NRA."

Then Jon Najarian somehow ... somehow ... felt the need to piggyback, stating, "Judge, first of all, 'Being There' with Peter Sellers, great movie, by the way Stephen, so nice reference there."

Why in the world can't he just say, "Great movie reference, Stephen"?

Was Judge secretly signaling to Doc, "Psst, inform the viewers what Weiss is talking about"????

See, here's the deal ... many times, even simple things should be explained ... other times, you have to give viewers/readers credit.

Many viewers of the show have a high appreciation of the arts. That's definitely true of those who find this page. (And you're reading this, and you know that's 100% true.)

Most of those people know exactly what Weiss was talking about. Not everyone does. The ones that don't will look it up. We basically know nothing about anything, so that's what we do all the time. Not everyone is familiar with the movie. That's fine.

Doc's comment represents at least 1 of 2 wrong-headed thoughts: 1) Viewers don't know what Weiss was talking about so I'll clue 'em in; or 2) It was a great analogy that I wish I'd made and I want to ride the coattails of it somehow.

When a guy makes a fantastic point, just let him have his moment in the sun. Make your own quality observation (which Doc is highly capable of doing) at another time.

Now, why is Weiss' analogy only nearly perfect and not 100% perfect. He didn't explain who Chauncey is in this scenario. It seems as though "Chauncey" represents a composite of everyone who gets within earshot of Donald Trump on a given day ... and not a particular person, Gary Cohn or Peter Navarro or whoever.

What Doc did not say is that "Being There" is a Hal Ashby film. Ashby, sorta like Francis Coppola but on a smaller scale, strung together an uncanny streak of venerable 1970s films only to lose the magic as soon as the clock hit "1980."

"Shampoo" is a masterful blend of the '60s and '70s and features Warren Beatty probably exactly in his prime, a couple years before Beatty was being dubbed "Mister Hollywood" by Time. "The Last Detail" is one of Jack's great roles and was praised by Pauline Kael. But Ashby's signature work is "Coming Home," an imperfect film but one that illustrates what Vietnam post-1972 is going to mean for America, basically forever.

"Being There" isn't so much about the presidency but about the notion that a person is sorta what other people think they are, that 1) human beings are our own self-fulfilling prophecies and 2) a lot of smart people can be fooled by charlatans, even unintentional ones.

Anyway, Rob Sechan admitted to Weiss, "I'm gonna say you're right," but we don't know yet if this is going to "knock us out of one atmosphere and into another" (so now we're talking hyperspace in "Star Wars"). (That's George Lucas, not Hal Ashby.)

Doc insisted Donald Trump reacts more to the Dow than "the last person he spoke with."

Doc said that in the wake of Gary Cohn's exit, "I think a 300-point selloff is probably about where we should be," but he didn't say if that only pertained to the morning (the Dow closed down 82 points). (This review was posted overnight Wednesday-Thursday.)

* One thing that's not at all clear is how to spell "Gardner." The character's name in the credits is "Chance." Eventually, he becomes known as "Chauncey Gardner." The Wikipedia page and the New York Times' Janet Maslin spell the last name "Gardiner," but Roger Ebert in 1997 decided it should be "Gardener."

Anthony Scaramucci suggests White House is like MSFT circa 1979

Judge on Wednesday's Halftime gave Anthony Scaramucci all the time in the world (despite a terrible phone connection) and managed to bury the lede until super-savvy Eamon Javers nailed it.

Let's start from the top.

Scaramucci didn't have much of a scoop on Gary Cohn's exit.

"There was obviously a conversation there, and Gary decided that this was a good time to leave," Scaramucci said. "Gary did an amazing job on the tax plan."

Moments later, in a bit of a chuckler, Scaramucci said, "The White House didn't miss a beat after I left, and he's a way bigger loss than me by a factor of 200." (OK, logically the "and" in that last sentence should be a "but.")

Judge said there's "a lot of turnover," and "if this was a Fortune 500, we'd be saying, 'What's going on?'"

Scaramucci said apparently with a straight face (he was on the phone, not a satellite hookup, so we couldn't know for sure), "But it's not. ... If you look at businesses that- that- that are start-ups ... any of these large businesses now, whether it's Dell, Amazon, Microsoft, et cetera, they experience in the early stages, the 1-2-year early stages, high turnover."

So the presidency is not as big as Dell ... it's more like a startup.

Scaramucci said Donald Trump has an "unlimited talent supply" (snicker).

Judge said the president's announcement on tariffs seemed like a "whim." Scaramucci said, "I don't think it was a whim."

"Markets are probably overreacting um to the uh the shock of the idea of potential tariffs," Scaramucci opined, but he said to give the president "credit" for being a good negotiator, and the president "doesn't see a need for a trade war."

Judge asked Scaramucci if the tariffs are a mistake.

"Well, are, are they being imposed," Scaramucci said. "Let's see, let's see what happens and let's see what the actual imposition of those tariffs are. Um, I know the White House is about to make an announcement or thinking about making an announcement; after they do that, if you wanna call me back in, uh analyze what they actually said and what's actually being imposed, and then we can discuss it." (Translation: It's a terrible idea, but hopefully someone will change his mind.)

Scaramucci admitted tariffs have had "uneven results" in years past.

Judge eventually acknowledged "a bit of an issue" with the phone connection but peppered Scaramucci with good questions about why Anthony is carrying on a bit of a feud with General Kelly.

"I don't wanna keep going back to that," Scaramucci said.

Judge pushed back, stating there are news reports that Scaramucci was "emboldened" by the president to slam Kelly.

"Those are personal statements of mine, they have nothing to do with anybody else," Scaramucci said. "I don't know why that's being reported."

Scaramucci said "I don't know" if Kelly is blocking the SkyBridge sale. "We'll have to see how this thing unfolds," he said, which is also what he said about the tariffs.

Jim Lebenthal said he'd "accent" what Judge said: "The turnover in the White House is so much greater than any other administration," calling it "off the charts."

After Judge wrapped it up, Eamon Javers summarized the Scaramucci interview this way: "He said he's not a guy who wants to come back here to the White House. But boy did he sound like a guy who wants to come back here to the White House, didn't he."

Judge demands Rob Sechan
define ‘trade war’

Assessing the Anthony Scaramucci interview and the pending Cohn-less White House, Rob Sechan on Wednesday's Halftime contended the markets were "overreacting to the headlines."

What's "most important" is the "reciprocal" moves from trading partners, Sechan added. He said it's "not throwing us into recession."

Steve Weiss said he disagrees with Scaramucci. "It's a cultural issue," Weiss said, opining that the culture isn't "keeping people in place."

"I think Anthony's giving the president too much credit for what's happened," Weiss added.

Weiss also said he disagrees with Sechan for perceived dismissal of a trade war. "The last trade war we had was in the Great Depression. Trade wars are not good," Weiss said.

"But who's to say it's gonna come," Sechan said.

"I'm not saying that's gonna come," Weiss said.

"Yes you're gonna get retaliation," Rob said.

"That's a trade war. What is a trade war in your definition?" Judge said.

Jim Lebenthal said he thinks what Sechan is saying is that you have to pay attention to this risk but it's not "dissimilar" to other risks we've seen.

Weiss said, "I bought Google this morning." That became his final trade. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Let’s eat a cheeseburger at McDonald’s ‘animal style’

Judge on Wednesday's Halftime said Stifel downgraded NFLX based on valuation.

Jon Najarian explained, "They said they're doin' everything too well." But Doc said he thinks "hitting the pause button" makes sense.

Steve Weiss said he bought NFLX a week ago and sold Wednesday morning. "I was up 13% in a week," Weiss said. But Weiss' basis has no bearing on where the stock is going.

Nevertheless, "It's in my non-taxable account, as Sarat said it should be," Weiss revealed.

Sarat Sethi said he can't buy NFLX, because of "when it comes back to 25" times earnings.

Rob Sechan wondered, in general, "You didn't buy it based on valuation. Why are you selling it based on valuation?"

Doc says there is ‘almost zero chance’ that Carl Icahn would act on inside information

Leslie Picker on Wednesday's Halftime reported that Carl Icahn declared it's "categorically untrue" that he knew about the tariffs decision when he sold MTW.

Judge said ThinkProgress "sort of insinuated" that Carl's timing on the sale "was perhaps too good."

Judge noted Icahn has been on Wall Street for 50 years. Jon Najarian said "there's next to no chance, almost zero chance, uh, that he would act on anything that was tainted like that."

Doc said UPS April 109 calls expiring 4/13 were popular. "I think it's ready to pop to the upside," Doc said.

Doc said MRVL April 25 calls were getting bought.

Jeff Kilburg said tariff talk was hurting copper, "but that demand is still there," so "no panic." Anthony Grisanti said $3 is the downside number, while $3.25 has been resistance. He said Chinese data makes him think a test of $3 is coming.

Rob Sechan's final trade was XLB. Jon Najarian said GWPH. Sarat Sethi said GM; "I'm buying more on the dip." Steve Weiss said GOOGL. Jim Lebenthal said he likes the GOOGL call. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Jim said GM is "The Rodney Dangerfield of stocks. It gets no respect." This is even worse than the "Being There" reference above because Jim actually thinks people may not know what he means when he mentions Rodney Dangerfield.

Jim said nobody on the panel was saying "sell" and that INTC was right near a high.

On the 5 p.m. Fast Bitcoin, Karen Finerman, stunning in orange turtleneck, said she wouldn't own XOM for the dividend or "for pure oil exposure."

[Tuesday, March 6, 2018]

Judge’s news flash: White House is a little more dysfunctional than Goldman Sachs is (a/k/a ‘The Dow is the key to this debate’)

The opening 25 minutes or so of Tuesday's Halftime Report centered on the apparently feisty debate within the White House on steel and aluminum tariffs.

Eamon Javers reported "real and intense disagreement" among White House staff.

Judge asked Javers, "Where does Gary Cohn factor into all of this." Javers explained that Cohn would like tariffs "minimized."

Javers said if Gary Cohn leaves the White House, it won't be over just tariffs but would be a "broader resignation." (Note: Hours after the show aired, the "broader resignation" occurred.) (This review was posted overnight Tuesday-Wednesday.)

Judge said he can report that Cohn is "openly contemplating his future." (And aren't we all.)

Judge actually said with a straight face, "I'm also told he's described the internal politics in the White House as being far worse than they ever were at Goldman Sachs."

Javers reported that people in the White House have "Gary Cohn resignation-watch fatigue." (Note: They don't anymore.)

Star guest Larry Kudlow said this type of war has been in the White House "from Day 1."

"Personally, I have urged Gary Cohn to stay," Larry said.

As to what's going on, "My psychiatric, uh, acumen is not as strong as I'd like it to be when you talk to these folks. I, or is it psychological, how does that work," Larry said.

Larry conceded that the rollout of the tariff policy was a bit clunky. "That was sort of odd," Larry admitted.

He questions jabbing Canada in all of this. "If you wanna go after China, go after China," Larry said.

Larry wouldn't tell Judge if he has spoken to the president this week. "Um, no comment. Never comments on that. Never, never, never never," Larry said.

Joe Terranova said, "It is about NAFTA, unfortunately."

Josh Brown questioned if logic about the tariffs isn't as important to the president as the "image of him going after China." Larry said, "He listens to the arguments" but that Gary Cohn thinks the president hasn't "heard that side of the story very well."

Judge told Larry there's a way to have a "thoughtful conversation on trade," and another way to have a "chaotic or haphazard rollout of a transformational policy."

Larry conceded again that it "didn't really happen in an orderly way."

Jon Najarian said the consensus on the panel would be to see Gary Cohn stay in the administration. Javers said, "The Dow is the key to this debate here in the White House. I've never seen a White House staff watching the Dow in real time as, as this White House staff is."

Stephanie Link said the uncertainty is "not good" and that if Gary Cohn leaves, that's "not good" either. Link said, "I would love to buy some of these tariff stocks, but it's hard, you just don't have that visibility."

Larry said Wilbur Ross is "really underestimating the cost to the economy."

Josh Brown said this is the playbook from The Art of the Deal. Larry agreed. "The bark is bigger than the bite," Larry said.

Doc: MCD’s menu is
‘confusing as all heck’

Judge on Tuesday's Halftime said the Call of the Day was the Credit Suisse flip-flop on MCD, which apparently is now a more negative stance.

Jon Najarian declared (of MCD, not Credit Suisse), "They're confusing people Judge."

Doc said he goes in MCD's a lot and does the "animal style," which he said is "Take the buns, throw 'em away, just eat the burgers with the lettuce."

Regardless, "When you go in there and you look up at the board Judge, it is confusing as all heck," Doc explained.

He's exactly right. You can read War and Peace in the time it takes to cover the menu, and then it keeps flipping around.

Stephanie Link said they "actually simplified their menu."

Doc said there's a "1-2-3 dollar menu" and "3 different Big Macs."

"OK, who knows what the heck they wanna order when they go in there," Doc said. "And then the boards are flipping."

Link said she'd really like to buy, but "numbers are gonna come down across the board, and you have to wait for that."

Joe Terranova knocked his own previous calls on the stock and said the "quantitative models" are showing bullish sentiment coming out of MCD, "and there's more room for that to go."

Judge said Credit Suisse "spoke to 3 franchisees across the U.S. to gauge their trends."

Josh Brown said, "3? I hope they're big franchisees."

Brown said MCD "obviously has snapped its, its, uh, its major trend line." He said WEN and SHAK and the pizza stocks look better technically.

A dog is tethered to a stagecoach, both are going across the country ...

Joe Terranova on Tuesday's Halftime said there's "no reason" to bet against further gains in NFLX.

Joe said TGT online sales were up 29% but "the margins were the worst margins in the last 20 years." Joe said to be "patient" with the stock and "wait to hear what they say further on the call."

Jon Najarian said May 44 calls in CREE were getting scooped up.

Doc said "cooler heads prevailed" as far as the Nordstrom family not piling on a bunch of debt to buy the company at 50.

Stephanie Link said of MYL, "this whole space is very difficult."

Stephanie said UPS is trading in line with FDX and has a "very reasonable valuation" and a nice yield, but "they're behind the curve on investing." She suggested FDX instead.

Josh Brown didn't seem that interested in HLF.

Jeff Kilburg suggested to Seema Mody that silver shorts will be "on the run." Scott Nations said there are lower lows and lower highs and there's room to the downside.

Josh Brown again endorsed INTC and NVDA. Joe touted the gains in MU.

Judge rushed everyone through final trades while there was still time to b.s. afterwards. Doc's final trade was SABR. Stephanie Link said EWZ. Josh Brown said INTC. Joe said FRC "goes well above a hundred."

[Monday, March 5, 2018]

Why does 1 person get to decide what the whole country pays for steel?

Jim Cramer opened Monday's Halftime whining about how negative some people are about the stock market.

Joe Terranova said "giving up (determining) which way the market is going to go" is probably the "best strategy" you can have now.

Pointing to strength in the Nasdaq, Joe said, "The market is not showing you that it wants to be very defensive."

Stephanie Link said "I wish I knew" why stocks turned around to the upside in the morning. Judge noted rates moved up as stocks moved up. "I was buying on Friday," Link said, mentioning MSFT and APC and ZBH.

Josh Brown noted rates have been flat since early February. Brown also noted strength in semiconductors and NFLX.

Brown said, "You're seeing buyers come in to retail stocks," and he actually mentioned JWN, M and JCP.

Joe declared about the presidency, "The tweets are not a strategy. They're not an investment strategy."

"The tweets are for Jimmy Fallon and Jimmy Kimmel, um, primarily," Brown said.

Judge suggested that, as far as the White House goes, maybe there's a "bit of a method to the madness" and that, "Maybe we, maybe we do get better trade deals." Jim Cramer complained that Mercedes and BMW build plants in Mexico to pay $5 an hour.

Josh Brown wasn't sure about cheering the day's turnaround. "A lot of what we're saying now could look really, could look pretty bad in 2 hours," Brown conceded, though it actually did hold up. (This review was posted overnight Monday-Tuesday.)

Brown said Jay Powell says that tariffs in general are "not a great idea."

Karen Finerman on the 5 p.m. Fast Bitcoin opined that what turned the market around Monday was when Paul Ryan "started to come out really against" steel and aluminum tariffs. "My biggest fear by a lot is this trade war," Finerman said.

Karen said of the president, "He is so concerned about what the market does, right," and the last few days "sort of stunned ... I think that, that makes a difference to him."

So China apparently produces far more gobs of steel than it wants so it can stick it to Rust Belt folks

Joe Terranova on Monday's Halftime said MU had a "big technical breakout" and noted the new CFO visited Morgan Stanley's tech conference, and "that was an excellent note to read."

Jim Cramer suggested with a straight face that "there's going to be a consensus" that if GE has to issue equity, you want to buy it.

Cramer said the Deutsche Bank upgrade of VRX is based on Joe Papa not doing anything "aggressive" until fixing the balance sheet.

Judge said, "They've got a Mount Everest of debt." Stephanie Link said AGN is a much better company than VRX, but the stock was recently hit.

Cramer repeated Dan DiMicco's claim to Sully last week (see our home page) about China lowering prices worldwide that causes other countries to dump steel here.

Stephanie Link said if PYPL "continues to weaken," she'd buy it. (This writer is long PYPL.)

Josh Brown said he's "definitely not a fan" of MNST, but the stock has found support at its old 2016 resistance. "There are way easier and better stories out there," Brown said.

Jim Cramer said AVGO "may be the winner here" in that QCOM-whatever battle that only Jim Lebenthal (who wasn't on the show) seems to care about.

Brown: Put some chips on INTC

Toby Loftin, who runs T. Boone Pickens' new oil ETF, claimed in a sleepy segment of Monday's Halftime Report that they created the fund because they saw a "gap" in the marketplace in ways of investing in energy.

Loftin told Josh Brown that the ETF allows a "balanced" approach to investing in energy so you don't have to "necessarily get the, the exact right timing on when the boom and the bust are happening."

Seema Mody handled Futures Now. Scott Nations said "fear traders" are turning to Treasurys or "implied volatility products," and higher rates are also a "headwind" to gold. He sees 1,306 as a key level. Brian Stutland said the dollar should strengthen a bit, and if so, look for 1,280 gold.

Jim Cramer's final trade was NVDA. Josh Brown said he likes NVDA and INTC and hung a "60, maybe higher" on the latter. Stephanie said TXT. Joe's final trade was FANG.

[Friday, March 2, 2018]

Judge actually finds it ‘fairly stunning’ that the White House stumbled to communicate a message

While CNBCers decried the loopy steel and aluminum tariffs all day Friday, Joe Terranova on the Halftime Report was playing baseball.

Joe said investors have been accustomed to 75 mph pitches, but "now the pitches are gonna come in at 95 miles per hour." Which, if we can figure that out, probably means fewer hits, a lower batting average.

"I think the Nasdaq remains a tremendous opportunity," Joe said. "I still think that's the area you focus on."

Joe also said, "We're making too much of trying to figure out the macro direction for the S&P 500."

The panelists didn't seem to be taking tariffs too seriously, though Josh Brown contended, "Clearly investors liked it better when Trump's lawyer was running around paying porn stars off. The- the market does not like this."

Brown said the policy is almost irrelevant; it's more a matter of "the psychology is so sensitive up at these heights."

But Jim Lebenthal said he does think it's a buying opportunity, "but I'm gonna wait another week" for the February inflation numbers and employment report.

Jim said this correction is looking like the type of path corrections "usually" make, in the form of a W rather than V.

Ron Insana said a NAFTA pullout would be "even larger" than steel and aluminum tariffs.

Tom Lee called the last couple days of trading "an overreaction on the equity market's part."

Judge told Lee it's not about the policy but the "haphazard nature" of which the policy is being explained and maybe that's a risk "in and of itself."

Lee actually responded, "I'm actually all for trying to change how American business runs. Because you know what, otherwise we're at 2% GDP growth bus- economy."

Judge said Eamon Javers' reporting on the introduction of the tariff policy was "fairly stunning." Here's a question: Wouldn't it be a lot more stunning if the rollout of this decision looked extremely professional ... rather than incompetent? #judgehashighstandardsapparently

(The only issue with making fun of White House communications ... there's a lot of rich people in Hollywood who couldn't even correctly read the name of the best film last year.)

Josh Brown said the notion of Powell being a risk to the market is "really shortsighted."

Judge stumps Eamon Javers after praising Javers’ reporting (which was excellent)

Hailed for his tariff reporting by Judge on Friday's Halftime, Eamon Javers turned up on the show and aired a clip of Wilbur Ross basically not knowing what's going on (though Javers didn't put it that way).

Javers confirmed, "This was a rollout that was not smooth by any stretch to (sic) the imagination."

Judge asked Javers if Ross was in the room with the steel CEOs when Donald Trump brought in the cameras. "I don't believe that he was, but you know, I'm not sure," Javers admitted.

Judge said Ross' comment was peculiar "in and of itself," the 2nd time he used that expression in the first half hour.

Javers said Gary Cohn was in the room and "made his best case, uh, for sort of the globalist view here" but was "effectively shot down by the CEOs." (Uh oh. Lighthearted gun reference. See the next sentence.)

Brian Sullivan, who tangled with Dan DiMicco a day earlier (see our home page), interrupted to report on BlackRock's gun statement about how it can't remove gun stocks from indexes but that it'll be "engaging" gunmakers and retailers on business practices. Another CNBCer associated with a different program, Andrew Ross Sorkin, dialed in and said, "I think it's impressive" before suggesting Larry Fink is looking at this as a "fiduciary."

Judge then said "in and of itself" for the 3rd time in the show in the opening half-hour.

Sorkin concluded, "All of a sudden we are getting into a very complicated place." Judge thanked Sorkin for dialing in, "even though you've started your weekend already."

Ron Insana uncorked a good joke, saying BlackRock could start a "passive-aggressive fund."

Joe makes biggest call of the week: TWLO to double in 2018

Jeff Kilburg on Friday's Halftime said that once Donald Trump tweeted about easy-to-win trade wars, gold buyers came in.

"The trajectory for gold is upward," Kilburg declared.

Anthony Grisanti said, "I would buy it anywhere from 1,305 to 1,310, keep my stop under 1,300," and predicted a test of 1,338 and said it could reach 1,400.

Asked to opine on Morgan Stanley's call of DE and CAT going higher, Joe Terranova said, "Caterpillar concerns me," but "I love Deere here."

Josh Brown said he remains long DE but thinks it'll take a "little bit of a thread-the-needle" to get to Morgan Stanley's 195 target.

Jim Lebenthal said, among other things, "I like Cat because it's more than just agriculture." Judge said Jim's explanation was a "long, winding road."

Jon Najarian did the unusual activity report from the CBOE. Judge knocked Doc's shirt. "I knew you were gonna go there," Doc said. (It's funnier when Steve Grasso does that to Tim Seymour.)

Doc said June 17 calls in DB were getting scooped up in the morning and that there were put buyers in the VXX; he bought puts and said he doesn't plan to cover until it's 42.

Jim Lebenthal said JCP actually had a good report. Judge interrupted while Jim was making a point that the stock recovered from its Friday open. But Jim thinks this is a squishy time for retail, and, "There's no need to touch the stock right now."

Joe Terranova said he bought WMT in November "around 96," and "slowly I've sold out of this position." He said if ecommerce growth moderates, then the premium multiple "has to come down from where it is now (sic last 5 words redundant)."

Joe shrugged that TGT has had a better turnaround than WMT over the last 3-4 months. Josh Brown said you can own both.

Josh Brown called FL "a very tough trade" and he'd avoid it; he bought UAA earlier in the week. "The psychology seems to have changed here" in UAA, Brown said. "It may be early, but I think it's- it's very, very low risk relative to what potential upside should be. ... I think this is a great trade; my stop is at 13."

Judge called that "good analysis." Joe said, "I agree with everything that Josh has said."

Jim Lebenthal's final trade was QRVO. Josh Brown said UAA.

In the biggest moment of the show, Joe's final trade was TWLO, predicting it "doubles by the end of 2018."

[Thursday, March 1, 2018]

Carl: Bill told me, ‘Your strategies were great’

The star guest of Thursday's Halftime, Carl Icahn, shied away from another market call, "Day of Reckoning" or otherwise.

"I'm not that concerned about a trade war," Icahn said, but he's "somewhat concerned about the overall market." But, Carl chuckled, "I think guessing about the market is really a very difficult game."

Carl's time was interrupted by Donald Trump's remarks, but much of Carl's interview centered on his triumph in HLF over Bill Ackman.

Judge for whatever reason buried the lede and waited forever to ask the money question, which was whether Icahn spoke to Ackman. Carl revealed he did. "He was kind enough, you know, and I thought it was a classy thing, he called me up yesterday and congratulated me. ... He complimented me actually and I told him, I complimented him ... It was really interesting ... He was sort of, 'Your strategies were great,' and I said, 'You know Bill, thank you for saying that,'" Icahn said.

He even told Judge he could potentially invest with Bill again. "I have no personal animosity against Bill," Icahn said.

"I enjoy a good fight especially when I win it," Carl revealed.

"I even thought he'd get out sooner," Carl said, stating he thought Ackman "basically lost the battle, you know, a few months ago." (But he didn't say, "You know what, Pete's right, Bill sure was smart to fight me with put options.")

"I think Herbalife brings jobs to many people ... it makes people entrepreneurs," Carl said. "It's the opposite of what Bill was saying."

Carl said Bill "just had the wrong idea on it. But he put up a helluva great fight." (Actually, after about Day 2 of his HLF-short presentation at the special Ira Sohn, it seems like it was a complete disaster of a fight.)

Carl acknowledged he made a billion dollars on HLF, "on paper."

"I have not sold one share" of HLF, Carl said, even suggesting the company might represent "a small secular change in the way you- you- you're gonna have retailing." (Hmmm, can we call HLF a junior Amazon?)

Carl said of Donald Trump, "I haven't had much interaction with him at all in the last 4 or 5 months" because both have been busy.

Carl opined, "I think the major thing you have to worry about or think about is creeping inflation."

"The tax cuts I think are positive," Carl said.

Judge went overtime asking Icahn about NWL (Zzzzzz); Carl acknowledged a "large position."

Carl called the CNBC conference "Seeking Alpha or whatever"; Judge corrected him to "Delivering Alpha." #brandingproblem

‘Double giddy’ on hold

Steve Liesman on Thursday's Halftime Report explained that Jay Powell "went out of his way to say the economy is not overheating as far as we could tell."

Liesman said, "It's gonna be 3, or it's gonna be 4 ... I don't know what else there is."

"The market is taking a breath here," said Josh Brown. As for technicals, "Psychologically, gotta be honest with you, not great," Brown said. (And they got more not-greater on Thursday afternoon.) (This review was posted during Thursday afternoon trading.)

Mike Farr asserted that "the main price of fish I think still is the interest rate."

Jim Lebenthal asserted that "benign" doesn't even begin to describe Thursday's read on inflation.

Joe Terranova tried to give a bit of a speech about how "the last 7 or 8 years, central banks have removed the risk for investors," but Judge cut him off and asked if Powell's changed the game. "He's basically telling you that we are going back to a more normal environment where you as an investor have to manage your own risk," Joe said.

Judge mentioned sparring at the Powell hearing over the value of buybacks. Josh Brown, who wore a really, really, really funny burlap suit on Tuesday, suggested the supposed "wealth effect" from buybacks is for "the 10% of the country that owns 84% of the stock market."

Judge even continued the buyback debate around the first commercial. Brown again got to talk, questioning, "Is this the smartest thing to be doing right now."

Actually, this page agrees and said it all during December. It's the product of people who have nothing else to do. (At least, like we always said, there hasn't been enough terrorism to get them to invade a country instead.) (And if it were a different presidency, we'd be talking about how certain people have to start paying "their fair share.") Short term, it will make Republicans tough to beat in 2018 and 2020; longer term, it's like buying stuff on your credit card that you're never going to wear.

Jim Lebenthal stated this is turning out like "every other garden-variety correction" and that we're in "a little swoon here" probably through the jobs report.

Joe: Gary Cohn ‘obviously loses’ in White House tariff decision

Part of Thursday's Halftime Report featured remarks from Donald Trump about tariffs and how America has been getting screwed for a long time until now.

Mike Farr said "apparently we do" have to wonder about a trade war again in light of the steel-tariff announcement.

Joe Terranova stated, "Mexico has already said they will retaliate. ... Gary Cohn obviously loses in this fight. ... This is clearly a blow to globalization."

Sue Herera reported that Donald Trump Jr. was part of a jury pool for an attempted robbery case but didn't get picked.

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