[CNBCfix Fast Money Review Archive — December 2018]
Halftime Report Call of the Year
(a/k/a the best & busts of 2018)
Whew.
First, a bit of a public-service announcement.
We do NOT want to be Debby Downer as 2019 begins.
This page wants people to succeed in the stock market. And it wants CNBC programs and personnel to succeed.
Unfortunately, the Halftime Report has gotten as fresh as 3-hour old fries. Sometimes (no need to mention any names or gimmicks), it's just unwatchable.
CNBC hasn't created a (really) new business day program in about 8-9 years, and a lot of the shtick has gotten old fast.
Not only that, but the stock market frankly sucked in 2018, and probably very few people had an up year.
OK. With that out of our system, here are the memorable moments, the busts, and the best of 2018. Unfortunately, with a rocky market, there were far more busts than bests ...
Memorable moments
Andy Chase on April 20 wants to rename the term ‘stock market’
"I've actually come to talking about the stock market saying 'business market' or 'companies' because you say 'the stock market' and people's hair on their neck stands up."
Several panelists refer to this presidency as ‘Chauncey Gardner’
It's about the only time Judge allowed/offered a discussion of film.
Kevin Hassett accuses Judge of trying to ‘attack’ the GDP number of the Atlanta Fed
"I certainly wouldn't use the word, um, 'attack,' and that's not in any way-" Judge started to say. "Well that's what it sounded like to me," Hassett said.
Jim Lebenthal on Jan. 26 says regulators within 5 years will deem AMZN ‘exactly’ like Standard Oil and AT&T
Yes, you might have to buy a prime membership for all 50 states.
Tom Lee on Jan. 19 believes it’s ‘more like 2029 is the peak of this equity market cycle’
So don't give up just yet.
Steve Weiss says Josh Brown is ‘1,000% wrong’ on Dave Tepper’s strategy
"I'm intimately familiar with his strategy. Dave could be net short the market," Weiss explained.
Judge reports on Feb. 28 that Ackman has ‘unwound’ his HLF position
"I can report that Bill Ackman is now basically all gone, uh, from Herbalife"
Carl Icahn on Feb. 6 asserts ‘The market is a casino on steroids’
"However, I wanna be clear, that I don't think this is the one time- is the, is the explosive time. ... I don't think this is gonna blow up"
Joe Terranova on Nov. 21 claims of oil, ‘The last 5 weeks are as manipulated a market as I have witnessed in 30 years on Wall Street’
See, here's how it works: When oil goes up, the public is sure it's rigged. When oil goes down, the pros are sure it's rigged.
Liz Ann Sonders on Oct. 25 wouldn’t be surprised if September was ‘peak of the bull market’ for 2 more years
Then again, "it could very likely be a cyclical bear market in an ongoing secular bull market."
Steve Weiss on June 14 calls cryptocurrency ‘a bunch of crap’
On the 5 p.m. show, that would violate the company line.
Someone on June 21 bids $16,000 for charity dinner with Judge, panelists
So that's the going rate for a meal with the Halftime folks. (#somuchforDenny's). (Note: The official description said the offer was for 1 person.)
The Busts of 2018
(in descending order)
20. Larry Culp in Nov. 12 interview with David Faber tries to look like a hipster
He also said "David" at every possible opportunity
19. Judge on Feb. 2 says Pete Najarian played in the ‘World Football League (sic)’
Maybe if Pete were about 70 years old
18. Sue Herera on April 20 calls Halftime guest host Melissa Lee ‘Michelle’
She blamed the prompter for calling Mel "Scott."
17. Karen Finerman on Oct. 10 starts to get intrigued by stocks trading down in ‘integers’
Those integers unfortunately were just getting started. "I'm sort of intrigued by this. I always say that when things start to trade down in integers at a time, something else is going on, and that's appealing to me."
16. Brad Gerstner on March 21 says he ‘scooped’ Judge, touts FB
Stock was 169 then.
15. Mark Yusko warns of real inflation citing North Carolina burrito bowl that used to cost $10 and now somehow costs $18
"We've been building up to the 2nd-greatest bubble in history," but now it's "worse." Yusko spoke of diversifying into "crypto" with a straight face and offered to talk about it more; Judge didn't take him up on that.
14. Joe Terranova on March 29 dares people, ‘You could all go on Twitter and write the criticism of what I’m about to say,’ then on Dec. 19 says ‘within the last 18 months, we have reached social media exhaustion’
Whatever.
13. Steve Weiss on June 22 says current big bank CEOS ‘are probably the best CEOs we’re gonna see in our generations (sic)’
So much for Buffett, Jobs, Bezos ...
12. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld on July 11 says show couldn’t ‘do any better’ than the other 2 guests, then talks more than both of them put together
"I'm honored to join you on this show, but frankly with, uh, with Linette Lopez and Bethany McLean, you can't do any better than those 2 guests." But then he went on to speak for 4 minutes, 12 seconds (we timed it), while Lopez spoke for 2:11 and McLean spoke for 1:36. (And Joshua Brown still managed to get a word in edgewise.)
11. Stephanie Link on Oct. 30 says ‘I wanna be longer now’ in GE, snaps at those who want something ‘perfect’
Joe is told, "If you want perfect, go find another industrial."
10. Erin Gibbs on June 25 says market might ‘hold steady’ for a bit, but, ‘Definitely September, get back in’
Might've been a bit premature.
9. Mike Wilson on Jan. 19 says his No. 1 ‘euphoria’ indicator is the AAII bull-bear spread
We've never heard another word about this statistic since.
8. Larry Kudlow on Nov. 2 tells Judge not to be ‘so cynical’
"Don't be so cynical, Scott. Ya gotta believe here, America's on the way back. We're the hottest economy in the world. We're crushin'- we're crushing it right now." Judge chuckled, "I'm not cynical- I'm not cynical- I'm just, I'm just asking you to, to react and respond to some of the statements you made yourself. That's all I'm doin'."
7. Karen Finerman on Jan. 23 says ‘it’s always been OK to buy at a record high, because here we are’
Well ... that's true ... whenever the market is at a high. If not, it feels kind of chumpish.
6. Mario Gabelli on Jan. 29 says he’s buying GE at 16
Should've waited a bit and listened to Stephen Tusa.
5. Doc on July 26 admits dropping ‘about 50 grand’ on FB calls
"The good news is that when you have an option position rather than stock, you lose that option position, I dropped about 50 grand on that, thank you very much, uh, last night, uh, but, uh, it was options, not stock, I controlled about 15,000 shares of stock through those options."
4. Josh Brown on Oct. 2 insists to Judge he doesn’t ‘recommend’ stocks on television
SFIX: "I don't recommend stocks. I bought it and said the reason I bought it was because-"
"By virtue of buying it, people take that as a recommendation," Judge explained.
"That's OK, so, I'm a registered person-" Brown said.
"... Play semantics with me, but you know what I'm saying," Judge said.
"It's not semantics! I literally cannot make financial advice (sic grammar) to people I've never met."
3. Judge on March 9 gushes to Dick Bove about Goldman Sachs in 2008 ‘not taking government capital in the way that it didn’t’
Bove demanded, "What are you talking about not making- not taking government capital. It was a huge amount of government capital ... if the Fed didn't re- lend that money to the company, the company wouldn't be in existence. I mean, come on. Take a look at the numbers." Judge eventually agreed he misspoke.
2. Dan Nathan insults Rich Ross with crudity Jan. 17 while claiming a lot of ‘smart people’ think cryptocurrency is the next big thing
The most cringe-worthy moment of the year. Nathan accused Ross of being "a little glib." Ross told Nathan, "You've been bearish for 2 years, and the stock market's gone up 100%. So where are you? You're not helping people make money. I mean, let's call it what it is." Nathan responded, "Don't come on here and tell me I haven't made- you don't know what I've done, you don't know what my, my call is, OK, so go piss off, seriously." We don't think Ross has been back.
1. Jana brass on Jan. 9 announces campaign with CalSTRS to get AAPL to do something or other about the features that kids use on iPhones, touts letter inviting Tim Cook to give them a call, Charles Penner tells Judge that ‘I’m not on Jim Cramer’s show, I’m on your show. What questions do you have?’
After Judge conducted this interview with Charles Penner and Barry Rosenstein, this site had to put together a couple of essay-length revelations of the expertise involved here; almost everyone cited in Jana's letter enjoys being booked for speaking engagements, one primo expert believes social media creates a "Psychic Tax" on children; the other primo expert was somehow an uncredited assistant director on "Kagemusha." Judge asked why not target video game makers and social media platforms. Penner's answer was: "Well, for the same reason you wore one tie today and you'll wear another one tomorrow. We can go after one company today and we can focus on others in the future." How many other companies have Jana and CalSTRS targeted about this outrage this year?
The best of 2018
(in descending order)
7. Erin Browne and Josh Brown on June 15 agree valuation has ‘no correlation’ on returns over 1-3 years
Unfortunately it didn't stop valuation from being cited in every program.
6. Steve Grasso since October insists he hasn’t seen a bottom, suggests waiting for 2,532, then 2,375
It's not that others were regularly calling a bottom in October, but a lot of people fell for October's head fakes.
5. Judge, panel on Sept. 25 hit home run with Mike Ovitz
22 minutes wasn't nearly enough.
4. Josh Brown touts AMD at 20, sometime around August
Unfortunately, we don't have the exact date. But Brown did talk about the stock around 20, and it had a monster 6 weeks from August into September, surpassing 30 for a spectacular fast money trade. It's not the Call of the Year because Brown and later Steve Weiss hung on too long, still touting it in the 30s.
3. Joe Terranova on first trading day of 2018, Jan. 2, recommends TWLO as a ‘small trade’ long
(Sigh.) We really, really wanted to make this the Call of the Year. Yeah, we know he probably made good money on it. But the fact is, Joe got wobbly on this name in late summer/autumn. On Oct. 2, he said he was "flat" with "no position" in the name. If he/anyone else had just held it through the whole year, it's a massive gain in a very tough market. Threading the needle/momentum trading is a great way to botch a great pick.
2. Stephen Tusa continually downgrades GE while panelists, guests occasionally buy it
Normally, we wouldn't rank an analyst who only appeared on the show maybe once or twice all year this high. But he was famously right all along while several (not the Najarians, at least since Doc bailed in late 2017) panelists kept calling a bottom.
1. Halftime Report 2018 Call of the Year: Judge on July 24 brings Lee Cooperman to tears with Wall Street tributes
"I also reached out to some of, uh, the heavyweights if you will of- of this business, uh, to get sort of their thoughts on, on what you've meant to the industry ... Mario Gabelli, who ... stuck with you through thick and thin, writes to me, 'After Lee started his firm in the early '90s, he would grill me on stocks that he thought I had a core competency in. It was as though I was his younger teammate. He still does that.' Uh, David Tepper, uh, wrote to me, 'I knew Lee from when he headed an investment committee at Goldman Sachs I was on, and I always considered him one of the all-time great stock-pickers.' David Einhorn says, uh, 'Lee has boundless energy, is a fantastic storyteller with a long memory and has an anecdote for every situation. But even more he has a heart of golden generosity. He is a terrific example for everyone in my generation.' Uh, Lee when- when you hear that, I'm wondering what you think."
Lee said, "Well, it brings tears to my eyes. Shouldn't do that to me. Not in a public arena."
[Monday, Dec. 31, 2018]
Jim says his AAPL money is the proceeds from shares sold at $201, as if that has any bearing on whether he’s smart to wait for $150
Judge on Monday's (12/31/18) sleepy, year-ending Halftime Report mentioned Nouriel Roubini, the first time we've heard that name in years, which instantly got us thinking that maybe the bottom really is in.
But Judge said he finds "frankly little belief" in the stock market entering 2019.
Josh Brown asserted, "Diversification still works," pointing to Treasurys in the 4th quarter.
Amy Raskin said, "I really think this is a good setup. I was on the show August 28th, I was cautious, I got my head in- a lot of people disagreed with that at the time."
Judge practically scoffed at Jim Lebenthal's notion that the trade war is a bigger deal than the Fed.
Jim said he sold AAPL at 201; "I love it at 158," he said, but he's "willing to bet" he can get it below 150.
Jon Najarian, to his credit, actually mentioned that he and Josh Brown bought AAPL at 164; Doc said the recent low in the stock was "stupid."
Josh said there's no better "tailwind" for AAPL than having 2 big buyers, Warren Buffett and Apple itself, supporting the stock; Brown said the recent pummeling was "unwarranted."
Jim claimed AAPL had a "1-quarter issue." Judge wondered "how is it a 1-quarter issue" when Jim was the loudest complainer about Apple's lack of clarity on iPhone sales.
Jim said AAPL's price is "ridiculous" but he still expects to get it at 150 or less. Amy Raskin said AAPL was "overdone on the upside."
Jim said if AAPL goes to 168 and he's buying there, "Remember, those are shares that I sold at $201." So why not buy it now at 158?
Josh Brown was "pretty excited" about having a "ludicrously low" limit buy order on AMZN get hit about 10 days ago.
Brown said FB has "maxed out ad load." Doc questioned why developers would trust Facebook anymore. (This writer is long FB.)
Doc called ULTA a "very interesting play."
Eric Costa said for several months, "We're gonna see a lot more shutdowns and wind-downs in the hedge-fund industry."
Josh Brown said owning MU is virtually identical to owning the SMH. He said he wouldn't expect any gains as long as the space is in a "tailspin." (This writer is long MU.)
Jim endorsed WGO. Doc said he sees no problem with XLU.
Shouldn’t have said ‘autopilot,’ but Donald Trump’s not allowed to say that
Early in Friday's (12/28) Halftime Report, Jon Najarian faulted Jay Powell's "autopilot" for triggering extended selloffs in the stock market.
But Judge, who led the show with a report on hedge funders getting calls from the White House asking for advice on making stocks go up, and Ron "25th Amendment" Insana and others indicated that Donald Trump's remarks complaining about Powell are causing stocks to fall.
What nobody said is that trading stocks based on one word from a Federal Reserve press conference is about as stoooooopid as it gets.
The people who make these trades are like these goofs who sift through newspapers and then leap out of their chair, "OMG!!!! THERE'S A 'WAS' THAT SHOULD BE 'WERE' ON PAGE 29!!!!!!!!!!!" #getalife
Insana said he didn't want to be "so crude," but the White House's calls to a hedge funder for advice on getting the market to go up are "amateur hour," because this is just a "garden variety bear market" and not something like 2008
Joe Terranova questioned, "What if they do take the advice" and suggested that if the White House does so, things would be looking up. (But how could that happen if the Volcker Rule is constraining liquidity?) But Doc said they "probably can't" get Donald Trump to stop being Donald Trump.
Nevertheless, "Asset prices are going significantly higher if there is that pivot," Joe said.
Doc said he's "not as surprised" that the White House is reaching out because this had been the worst December of all time and right now is just the worse since 1931. Beginning the backpedal, Ron said, "I'm not saying you don't canvass the Street," but 2008 was different.
Judge said the investor who was consulted by the White House was probably like, "You're asking me? Are you serious?"
Judge revealed that "Novarro's name was mentioned as well."
Joe said he's "100% confident" that Donald Trump wants to be a "friend to the market."
(Doc also said Powell is a member of the "administration.")
Later, Joe revisited his years-old notion of other nations "exporting their deflation" to the U.S.
Shannon Saccocia twice said "the reality is" while making a clumsy point about where stocks are going.
Judge pronounced "context" as "consec" (sic corrected).
Jim Lebenthal's argument against CRM (seriously) is that we're going to have a recession at some point in the next 5 years.
Doc sees ‘real buying’
Joe Terranova on Thursday's (12/27) Halftime Report said if the market can make a run toward "unchanged" by the end of the day, it would give speculators a "point of reference" of Wednesday's low as the possible bottom and place to measure risk against.
We could rephrase that: If people think the bottom is in, they'll buy.
"I also saw a lot of buying yesterday," said Jon Najarian. "We actually saw real buying," not just "dips."
Doc pointed out that tax-loss selling goes away next week.
Kari Firestone mentioned the "dry-heaves effect" in which there's nothing left to sell.
Rob Sechan said this market is "completely detached from the fundamentals" and said he's "starting to selectively buy."
Grandpa Steve Weiss quibbled with Rob Sechan's observation that "headlines" are driving the stock market. Weiss insisted that a slowing economy is "fact."
Joe grumbled about the Volcker Rule and its perceived effect on "liquidity." (What have stocks done since the Volcker Rule was implemented.)
Weiss was handed Scott Kessler's V upgrade. Weiss said the stock is not "compellingly cheap" and added, "I have no idea what he's talking about when he says 23 discount P.E. basis." Weiss said he thinks the stock could get to its old highs (Zzzzzzzz) over 2 years.
Doc called YELP a "steal."
Joe said he has "no problem" getting long AAPL if it gets above 157. (Remember on Dec. 12, when Pete Najarian hinted at a bottom, stating, "The 20,000 calls they bought that were short term, Scott?? That said a lot about what people were thinking about Apple. And that literally was a turn off of 164 towards this 170 level.")
170. Bet those short-term calls are worth a lot.
(That was the same day Doc was seeing a "building in risk appetite.")
Sully and Weiss haggled over how to buy biotechs and know what you own.
Joe's final trade was gold. Joe offered a bit of an economic rationale and said, "In that deflationary environment, gold historically works well." Doc picked the SLV. Weiss said he's bought some CAT.
Sully's first question to Kari Firestone was a dead-air bust.
Sully said the length of a Halftime Report episode is "actually 44 minutes with commercials." But what Sully didn't say is that Judge often spurns commercials. #lostrevenue
Jeffrey Gundlach vs. Scott Minerd
We're just a handful of days from the end, but on Wednesday's (12/26) Halftime Report, Joe "Chief of Staff" Terranova uncorked what might well be the Understatement of the Year.
Joe stated, "Momentum is, has become an investment strategy."
Strategy? How about "obligation," at least for anyone who wishes to appear on CNBC's Halftime Report or its sister program, Fast Money.
Anyway, Joe told guest host Sully, "So, does momentum come back? Of course it does," because all strategies come and go.
Jon Najarian said the morning swing was probably the most positive thing he has seen in the market in a month. And that was before the Dow climbed another 700 points.
"You're seeing some belated tax-loss selling," grumbled Grandpa Steve Weiss.
Weiss said it's "backwards" for Kevin "Dow 36,000" Hassett and not Donald Trump to proclaim Powell safe; later he complained that the Treasury's call to banks was "asinine."
Jenny Harrington revealed that a client who's a "super-smart dude" told her on Christmas Eve he thinks the market is "broken" and that he's "done." But she said another client gave her cash that she couldn't get invested fast enough.
Grandpa Weiss gloated that he doesn't have to be 100% long all the time.
Scott Minerd, the star guest of the program known for saying back in January at the time of Davos that the key is to know when to get out of the market, said it's been "one blunder after another" from the government. Minerd called it "50/50" as to whether there's a Fed pause in March.
Despite recent commentary about "bear market," Scott told Sully the bottom is "nearby" and said there's even a 50% chance of a rate cut in 2019. Doc said, "I think it might be higher than that."
Judge doesn’t get it
In the good ol' days, this site would've been all over Jeffrey Gundlach's split with CNBC, at least according to Jeffrey's Twitter account (remember, we're in social media "exhaustion" according to some): "So sad that appearances on CNBC are now a thing of the past. It was great while it lasted. Blame it on Cramer. We'll be on Fox Business."
Unfortunately, we're a bit strapped at the moment, so some news developments are taking a long time to reach the central nervous system, kinda like how dinosaurs used to operate.
Apparently Jim Cramer sort of mocked Jeffrey after Jeffrey's comments to Judge about this being a bear market, and so Jim had to dial in to Friday's (12/21) Halftime for no other reason (it was purportedly a conversation about the Fed) than to publicly apologize/beg Gundlach to continue appearing on CNBC.
Zzzzzzzzzz.
We couldn't help but notice that Judge at one point asked Jim, "What is the catalyst to stop this selling?" Judge is missing the point. Stocks are sold every day even in the greatest bull markets. The problem now is that no one's buying.
Eamon Javers was heard to say, "We'll see how the bill fails (sic meant "fares")." Sue Herera was heard to say "Northern Hemisfur (sic corrected pronunciation)."
It's a shortened holiday week. Please be safe.
Judge accuses Fed of relying on ‘some mumbo jumbo economic model’
Judge on Thursday's (12/20) Halftime Report told Lee Cooperman that Mike Wilson has "been right on the money uh as a strategist."
Lee said, "Well, I believe the market is actually lower than he thought it would be." (Ah. A contrarian voice.)
Wilson's response was, "We actually overshot my base case, and now we're getting closer to my bear case."
Wilson advised a couple of times during the program, "This is not the place to be selling."
"We're looking at indicators that suggest the worst is priced," Wilson claimed.
Wilson curiously said that maybe Jerome Powell "didn't give us necessarily what we wanted to talk about, the balance sheet, in a way that we're gonna think about it because I think he maybe wanted to see what the reaction was. And that's what he's gettin'- now he sees the reaction."
Hmmmm ... OK ... Powell didn't do something or say something about the Fed balance sheet in the way the market wanted to talk about it ... because he wanted to see how the market would react if he did NOT do or say something about it?
Man, this is one cagey Fed.
"6 months ago, there was no negativity in the marketplace," Wilson claimed.
Joe "Chief of Staff" Terranova first revisited "purposeful technology" invoked Vinnie Viola, then revisited his new favorite word, stating, "The liquidity is not there on the other side."
(Translation: There are no buyers.)
Apparently getting "fed" up talking about this subject, Judge suggested the central bank should maybe stop modeling and just start "listening ... watching ... observing" what's happening in the economy rather than relying on "some mumbo jumbo economic model."
It's like we always say: The Fed's always popular until stocks go down. (And, as much as this ghastly market sucks, it'll suck even worse for those who unload and then watch the S&P rocket to 2,800 from this stooooopid pullback and feel like a chucklehead.)
"I still think it's China first, Fed second," said Pete Najarian, one of the many folks on Judge's vastly overstuffed panel.
Brett Redfearn, the SEC's director of market structure, first spoke with Bob Pisani, then entertained a question (or 3) from Lee Cooperman, who dialed in; Judge asked Redfearn if he could remain to talk with Lee and Redfearn said yes, "Um, I got a couple more minutes," but Lee spent 1 minute, 40 seconds on his first statement/question to Redfearn and then interrupted Judge when Judge was reshaping the conversation.
Joe declares social media ‘exhaustion’ despite tweeting at least 5 times on Wednesday
Near the end of Wednesday's (12/19) Halftime, Judge brought in Jeffrey Sprague of Vertical to explain his upgrade of GE.
Pete Najarian, who said he owns 6 puts, wasn't convinced.
"First of all it was minimal, in terms of any kind of detail," Pete said. "OK, so he went from 10 to 11, but other than that, what did he really say?"
Nobody had the brass to call the D.C. attorney general case against FB a frivolous lawsuit. Judge though mugged for the cameras tearing up FB's 5-page response. (This writer is long FB.)
Headlining the panel's Facebook sentiment that sounds a lot like post-IPO, Joe "Chief of Staff" Terranova sounded particularly annoyed by the company, stating, "We're gonna look back, and we're gonna realize that within the last 18 months, we have reached social media exhaustion. Carl Icahn came on this show a couple years ago, everyone laughed at him, and he said, you just can't, We just can't sit here and tweet the economy."
Hmmmm. Now there's an analysis that makes a whole lot of sense. Carl Icahn said a couple years ago that people can't just "tweet the economy," so social media is exhausted?
Joe in fact on Wednesday was tweeting the economy: "Capital markets repricing deflationary forces at the same time the deficit is growing!"
(Back on June 12, Joe said the "fundamental turn" for TWTR was 2 quarters ago and gushed, "There's plenty of room in this stock if you look at it on a chart," despite the fact everyone had supposedly laughed at Carl a couple years ago.)
Joe on Wednesday further asserted, curiously, "We are transitioning to purposeful technology. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Adobe, Salesforce, Apple. Technology with a purpose. Not social media exhaustion with no purpose." The country is now transitioning to Microsoft, whose purpose is/was to collect a toll from anyone buying a desktop computer and owning every browser in existence?
Josh Brown said he agrees with Joe and wouldn't go near FB. "You've probably seen the high point of the multiples that Wall Street will pay for these stocks already," Brown said.
Jon Najarian, who back on July 25, when FB was $217, suggested "this thing just goes significantly higher" and said it's "a no-brainer, I think" that FB would outperform AMZN for the next 12 months, on Wednesday mocked the stock by saying people are buying January 120 puts.
It all sounds like a potential bottom.
See what we mean by "pack of momentum traders"?
Mel on the 5 p.m. Fast Money asked Gene Munster the clumsiest non-question about Facebook of all time.
Richard Fisher shoots down notion of ‘liquidity’ crisis
Richard Fisher, the star guest of Wednesday's (12/19) Halftime Report, made a comment that surely caught the attention of one of the day's panelists.
"There's tons of liquidity out there," Fisher said.
A bit later, Mr. "Liquidity" Man, Joe Terranova, told Fisher he wouldn't debate "liquidity" but insisted (without any kind of proof) that it's "inarguable" that in 2018, "there is less for us in the marketplace to transact on."
Joe questioned if "we're now paying for the Volcker Rule."
Fisher didn't seem to think so, stating banks are in good shape and have public confidence, so, "I'm not sure I buy that argument."
Josh Brown decided, "There really is no urgency for rate hikes," but Joe "Chief of Staff" Terranova raised alarms over market reaction to a no-hike decision.
Joe said the notion of the Dow soaring 1,000 points on no hike is "conventional thinking." Josh Brown, who often pleads to finish a sentence, interrupted to say "I don't think that's conventional, by the way."
Joe went on to say, for some reason referring to "Jon and Pete, as traders can relate to this," as if he needed their permission to make a point: "Can you imagine, if they don't raise today, and the market goes up and by Monday, we're lower than where we were today, that's a huge risk for the market and for the Federal Reserve."
"And we would be too. We would," chimed in Jon Najarian. "People would sell the living crap out of it."
"They already have," Josh Brown insisted, pointing to banks' slide since September and adding an exclamation point.
Well, no hike doesn't seem like a "huge risk" to us. Is inflation going to soar to 1979 levels in 2 weeks?
Richard Fisher had a great show. He pointed out how the U.S. is doing compared with the world. "We're Secretariat in 1973. We're 30 lengths ahead of everybody else," Fisher said.
Josh Brown astutely wondered if the stock market should become a "bigger metric" for the Fed. Fisher said Brown's premise of market moves affecting the economy is correct but stated that the Fed "floated the market for 10 years," which could've been an interesting cause-vs.-effect conversation, but Judge didn't pursue it.
Fisher said presidents have a long history of bullying the Fed. Fisher got our attention when he stated, "LBJ literally physically beating up Chairman Martin; my boys are dying in Vietnam, you're not printing the money.
"Literally beating up?" We checked out the New York Times story and found it says, "According to different accounts, the 6-foot-4 Johnson pushed the shorter Martin up against a wall."
Pushing a shorter person "up against a wall" is a lot different than "physically beating up" a person "Road House" style.
Fisher also asserted that "A whole generation of money managers have never seen a down market. That makes you vulnerable." The money managers might not have seen a down market (we find that a bit of a stretch), but their clients sure have, to the point they won't dare pay more than 15 times for ridiculously successful companies such as Google, Facebook and Apple.
Doc said he and Pete "occasionally" count cards in Vegas to gain a 1% edge.
Trying to sound cool, Judge mentioned "McCarran."
Judge said Mike Wilson "nailed this pullback in the stock market." (Including the part about people in Q4 chasing both the stuff that has worked and the stuff that hasn't worked and how there could be a pullback but it could all recover really fast.)
For those hoping to hear Steve Liesman defend how the Fed nailed it and the market doesn't quite get it, it took place shortly after 4 p.m. Eastern on Closing Bell, when Liesman stated, "Powell may have been a bit more dovish than the market, uh, may have given him credit for."
Does anyone in the world actually believe the U.S. economy needs a rate hike?
Judge on Tuesday's (12/18) Halftime kept trying to hype his Monday interview with Jeffrey Gundlach, but at least one guest wasn't impressed by Jeffrey's "Boy, was I right" "bear market" declaration.
"I think it's just a matter of semantics," shrugged Tom Lee, who used to say bitcoin 25,000 and thinks stocks' long-term upward run is far from over; "I think everybody's offsides right now."
Lee contended that if the Fed did NOT hike this month, "I think it would be very positive for equities."
Steve Liesman actually claimed, "See, here's the thing — if you don't get the hike, you gotta worry about the hike in January (snicker). Why not get it now?"
Ummmmmmm ... because it's absolutely pointless?
In what could've been a great moment, Liesman said he'd give Donald Trump the same "Broadcast News" advice from Albert Brooks to William Hurt: "Keep it to yourself." (Except Steve said it's about "What do you do when your life exceeds your best possible dreams," when the actual quote does not include "best possible.") (We get it. It's live TV. Mistakes happen.) (Now THAT would be a helluva night, if Judge hosted a "Broadcast News" screening followed by a poker game during some Thurs/Sat/Sun/Mon Night Football. But nobody's holding their breath.)
Eventually, Liesman thought Judge's question about what the first press conference question would be (yada yada yada) was a little bit rhetorical. "You're a good reporter, Scott," Liesman said.
"Well, I appreciate that," Judge said.
Big birthday in Halftime-land coming up on Saturday
Joe "Chief of Staff" Terranova on Tuesday's (12/18) Halftime Report asserted, "You have a bear market in several different conditions" and revealed he's got a new favorite term.
Joe explained that it'll take a "collaboration" that "brings liquidity back into the market" and reverses sentiment.
"You keep talking about liquidity," Judge told Joe, asking him to "explain exactly what you see that is so worrying to you."
OK. Before Joe answers, we'll tell Judge what "liquidity" really means: Nothing.
Not even the fee for the gaming license.
(That last sentence is a joke, for fans of great movies.)
See, it's one of those terms that sounds cool and profound but is just a red herring; at best, it's effect mistaken as cause.
To that end, Joe gave a speech saying that thinking of liquidity as "volume" is the "wrong way to think of it." Then he mentioned a Goldman report about trying to sell 100 S&P futures, and in 2017, there was demand for 100, but now there's demand for only 30.
By the time we sorted through this mumbo jumbo, our own conclusion of this report is that "nobody's buying."
Nevertheless, "That's why I call it, it's a liquidity recession," Joe insisted.
Please note: This page never hectored Joe over "chief of staff"; that one's on Judge. This time, Judge actually credited Joe for pointing out the market's lack of response to good earnings.
Joe suggested, in the form of a question, that maybe 2019 will be the year to fear the deficit (snicker).
Stephanie Link's final trade was JNJ.
On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Steve Grasso, who has correctly refused to believe in a whoosh since October, said he sees capitulation at 2,375. "I know it's ugly; I know it's grim reaper," Grasso said.
‘Boy, was I right’
Those who tuned in to Monday's (12/17) Halftime Report basically spent an hour listening to Jeffrey Gundlach say he's right about this, right about that, etc.
"Boy, was I right," he said at least 3 times (that's an exact quote).
Apparently veering off script, he did admit, "Frankly I didn't think we'd ever go back below 3.25." (He also mentioned late in the show that he "talked about" commodities in this interview a year ago with Judge, but he didn't say that he advised adding commodities as his "best idea" for 2018.)
"I'm pretty sure this is a bear market," Gundlach contended, using the term "bear market" 3 times in the opening (but didn't mention "chief of staff"). He said AAPL's rollover after not releasing phone data was "kind of the last straw."
Joe gets all bent out of shape because Judge calls him out on chief of staff
Friday's (12/14) Halftime Report was like one of those games of The $20,000 Pyramid when Nipsey Russell presents a few clues and someone keeps rattling off answers that maybe don't resonate.
Judge basically spent a half-hour asking the gang the same question he's been asking for 2 months, why the stock market is a disaster.
Joe Terranova seemed fixated on the demise of Gen. Kelly, until Judge finally said, "The market's not selling off because there's no chief of staff. I mean, come on."
Joe insisted it's the "combination" and "dysfunction." Judge said there's been "pockets" of this for a couple years, and the market "has gone up."
Then Joe issued a warning, telling Judge, "Don't keep saying that I'm saying the market's going down because specifically the absence of a chief of staff."
"You mentioned the chief of staff," Judge reminded.
"I'm saying collectively," Joe said again.
Steve Weiss asked in amazement why "you" would buy UAA. Jim Lebenthal twice cautioned against being a "hero" and buying the stock. Jim and Weiss tangled briefly in a clumsy dialogue that Judge claimed had something to do with the definition of "you."
Leslie Picker read off a lengthy statement of JNJ's rebuttal to the Reuters article. Weiss claimed that talc concerns in court cases from a couple years ago are the reason he won't invest in JNJ.
The ‘dark side’: Weiss credits Joe for making a ‘great case’ against active management
Steve "Mr. Inflation" Weiss, invoking either Pink Floyd or Obi-Wan Kenobi, said on Thursday's (12/13) Halftime Report that the stock market's 10-year sugar high is being "pulled back," so this is the "dark side of the bull market."
Judge questioned if the bull market actually ended in January, stating that stocks at that time "went parabolic."
Joe Terranova said that if the bull market is indeed over, that doesn't mean that it automatically transitions into a bear market.
Judge insisted, "Well, we've been in a bear market though." Joe said you can argue that "parts of the market" are in "bear territory."
Weiss sought to draw a distinction between "the top line" and various sectors that are struggling. Joe insisted, "The top line is what matters." Weiss disagreed. Joe insisted, "You have to look at the index!" Weiss said, "You just made a great case for the complete eradication of active management if you're only measuring yourself against the top (unintelligible)."
Actually, it sounded to us like Weiss is the one making the case against active management, suggesting that the indexes aren't as bad as the whole market.
"We still have no playbook for this," Weiss explained.
Meghan Shue asserted that stocks can still rise in this environment, pointing to the S&P 500 median return vs. the ISM (or something like that).
Weiss claimed markets overdo it in both directions. But Steve Liesman argued that "the overbought and the underbought kinda cancel each other out."
Weiss called that kind of theory "pablum." Liesman shrugged, "It's the basis upon which the entire economic system of America is based." Weiss said, "That's not true. Shiller has the other side of that argument (snicker)."
Pete’s analysis of Stephen Tusa’s call is one of the best, most thorough observations in a long time
Steve Liesman on Thursday's (12/13) Halftime Report predicted "slower growth but not slow growth" and called the market "distracted with the marginal stuff." (Translation: The Fed's always right; the market doesn't get it.)
Jim Lebenthal said there needs to be a "concrete deal" with China to clear the way for markets, but that's not on the near-term horizon, so a Santa Claus rally is "kind of out the window."
Pete Najarian bluntly insisted it's "plain and simple" that "volatility's too cheap."
Meghan Shue said there's elevated volatility, but, "We generally still like stocks."
Judge got Jim tangled up while assessing Steve Liesman's comments about whether forward growth projections are too low. Jim finally said there's a "big difference" between 2% and 2.5%.
Meanwhile, Judge noted Stephen Tusa upgraded GE to neutral (snicker). Pete Najarian, in what proved to be impressive commentary, said "I don't think it's bottomed" and predicted a 5-handle. Pete said even Tusa doesn't think it has bottomed. "What he's saying is it's not going to zero," Pete told Judge.
Joe Terranova pointed out that Tusa's upside is to 8.
Joe said people bought GE at 12 because of "Lawrence" Culp. Pete called that type of buying a "big mistake." (Well, yeah ... the stock is practically half the price.)
Judge continued his once-fresh but now stale refrain, saying that even if Culp is the greatest industrial CEO of all time, he's not a "miracle worker," as if the greatest industrial CEO of all time couldn't make something good happen here.
Steve Weiss said the problem with airlines is that "when oil goes down way low, they put on more capacity, because it's cheaper to fly. So you don't have the benefit really of low oil."
Actually, that sounds like a solid plan as far as we can tell, except, as the panel eventually concluded, no one really trusts the airlines to manage their business correctly.
When oil goes up too high, "they're not hedged," Weiss grumbled.
Pete demanded Phil LeBeau explain why AAL sucks. Phil said, "Margins are being pressured." (That's maybe not as specific as viewers would prefer.)
Weiss said the risk/reward in semiconductors is "pretty much in balance." #somuchforacall (Translation: Not very interested.) (This writer is long MU.)
Jim Lebenthal was asked about ROKU, which over the past 12 months has gone from great stock to bad stock to super-great stock to super-horrid stock. "I wanna buy it again. You cannot buy it right now ... just stay out of it until January rolls around," Jim advised. (This writer is long ROKU.)
Judge’s freak show
Way back in 1993, Roger Ebert interviewed Robert Mitchum at a film-festival screening of "Out of the Past," only to have Mitchum, who was at dinner during the actual screening, reveal, "I'm not impressed ... because I don't, honest to God, know that I've ever actually seen the film."
Later, a film student asks Mitchum what he thinks of film festivals, where people analyze movies.
"They're freak shows," Mitchum says. "In any community, if somebody notifies the local TV stations that there's a giraffe loose in their back yard, the whole populace turns up."
We thought about that during Wednesday's (12/12) Halftime Report when Pete Najarian, for the umpteenth time, analyzed AAPL as the "best example" of what was happening in the tech space. "The 20,000 calls they bought that were short term, Scott?? That said a lot about what people were thinking about Apple. And that literally was a turn off of 164 towards this 170 level."
Well, yippeeeeeeeeeeee.
Someone spent a lot of money on AAPL calls; notify the whole populace!!
We kinda doubt that Tim Cook cares in the slightest whether Josh Brown, Pete Najarian and Jim Cramer have called a bottom for the week; presumably Tim's having breakfast while the show airs. (Actually, he probably has breakfast BEFORE the show airs.) (We don't know anything about Tim's dining habits other than he once had a meal at Carl's.) (Carl's meal with Ackman was at Carl's favorite Italian restaurant, not Carl's home.)
Now, are we saying Tim Cook is Robert Mitchum? No, this page is not saying Tim Cook is Robert Mitchum. (Although he's not exactly installing the chips and tightening the screws; he's just the image who develops and presents it all.)
But, quite frankly, hate to say it, the Halftime Report sometimes does resemble a freak show, in which packs of momentum traders play stock-market-rear-view-mirror and chase every technical update of the prior 24 hours and declare a new paradigm of some sorts, then return 24 hours later to do it all over again.
Maybe, as Mitchum implied, some things are simply overanalyzed.
Kari shrugs off ‘media apocalypse’
Pete Najarian opened Wednesday's (12/12) Halftime stating he had been "extremely confident" in a December Fed hike, but, "I think right now, it's totally a flip of the coin."
Kari Firestone said it's really not about hiking; "what matters the most is what they say around whatever decision they make."
Mary Ann Bartels agreed with Kari's take but added, "We think the outlook for 2019 is not that bright."
Joe Terranova said technicals indicated a stock market bounce Wednesday.
Judge mistakenly said if the Fed does not hike, "Everybody's gonna say, 'Oh, Jay Powell caved to the Fed (sic),'" then corrected it to "Trump."
Steve Liesman predicted a "dovish hike" (snicker) in December.
Jon Najarian said the "ideal" and "most likely" Fed scenario is hiking now and waiting later. But in bigger news, Doc is seeing a "building in risk appetite" in the broad market. Judge wondered about all the important put-buying in the S&P 500 Doc just recently mentioned. "On Monday. That was a 1-day expiration," Doc explained. (See what we mean by momentum-trading freak show?)
Steve Liesman cautioned, "Don't get all that happy about the idea that the Fed is going to, uh, raise rates in December and then pause," because a pause would bring "some tickdown" in the Fed's GDP outlook.
Liesman claimed, "Someone on our air said the Fed did not see a slowdown coming," but Steve said it "did indeed."
Pete Najarian said options players are "being more and more correct each and every day." But then 10 minutes later, Pete said all the Mueller stuff is still out there, so, "I think volatility ... it's here to stay." (So much for that "building" risk appetite. See again what we mean by momentum-trading freak show?)
Mary Ann Bartels stated that there's a "good chance" that the stock market is "really oversold." She has "really good, um, indicators" that there's a "good enough washout." However, Mary Ann's thread-the-needle trade is that 2019 is going to be a struggle, so first stocks will go up, then struggle, apparently.
Kari Firestone curiously offered, "It felt to me on Monday that there was a media apocalypse" in which "every media" (specifically NYT and WSJ according to Kari) was saying "this is really the end" in terms of recession. "I get it, it, it, it sells news," but the markets came down 10%; "we're not that expensive," Kari said.
Judge noted KBW downgraded banks again. "Might be a sign of the bottom," Pete said. "Yeah," Kari said.
Pete blamed "the algos" for pushing down LULU.
Doc said you can buy UAA on "significant dips," and Wednesday's fall was becoming one of those.
The Najarii trumpeted Joe's favorite, TWLO. Joe was allowed to give a speech about the importance of TWLO's customer growth and also touted ADBE and another old favorite that he mentions whenever possible, "Palo Alto."
"You like to trade (and say) Palo Alto," Judge observed.
"I do," said Joe, adding the words "Palo Alto" twice more.
Judge questioned why Joe keeps trading in and out of PANW instead of just owning it. "It's one of the few things that I trade well," Joe explained.
Judge noted Barron's called the corporate tax cut a "bust."
Guy Adami grumbled on the 5 p.m. show first about Joseph A. Bank boxer shorts that he thought might belong to someone named Joe Bank, then the fact that the stock market should've held the early gains.
‘Wall’ Street: Marc Lasry says Trump’s border demand is ‘the only issue he’s got’
Judge devoted 16 minutes of Tuesday's (12/11) commercial-free (#lostrevenue) Halftime Report to the Oval Office dialogue on a border wall.
Judge called the White House exchange "unprecedented" and said "it takes reality TV to a whole new level."
Judge tried to bolt from any discussion of the wall/shutdown, but Marc Lasry, who served as a panelist with impressive candor, couldn't help but weigh in.
"What I don't understand, I mean as I'm watching that, why wouldn't they have just said, 'Well Mr. President, you said Mexico was gonna pay for the wall. Why do you need us to pay for it?' (Answer, Marc: They don't want the wall, period; they think their base doesn't believe in it.) It's, it always boggles me that people don't sort of just be logical about a lot of these things," Lasry said. "And, the fact that the president just keeps going back and forth on this, it's an issue- it's the only issue he's got, so he's gonna make a big i- issue out of it. But I think what you're gonna see starting in January, is just problem after problem, and I think the markets have started realizing that."
Invoking the "lunatics" on one side of the aisle, Josh Brown said that what Lasry said "makes a good case for Treasurys." Brown pointed to a 2011 government funding stalemate, "that was the tea party, a little bit different than the House Freedom Caucus or whatever the lunatics call this time ... the big fear was that the Treasury would not have its interest paid ... but ... Treasurys rallied."
Steve Liesman made a cogent comment (and didn't make enough out of it) that the president has significant leverage. "Shutting down the government will be a weapon that he'll have continuously," Liesman said.
Judge welcomed in Yana Barton at the 41-minute mark. "I just think we need to get back to fundamentals," Barton said, suggesting long-term investors could "perhaps mute" some of the D.C. conversation.
Marc Lasry claimed, "Every time they're fighting, you're- you're having literally (sic) 50 to a hundred billion dollars worth of value just keeps on evaporating."
Judge correctly wondered what happened to "gridlock is good."
Steve Liesman said when Donald Trump took office, it seemed like the stock market was No. 1, but now he's looking for global trouble, and so "It's now in No. 2, No. 3 position here."
Eamon Javers offered this to those who were either born yesterday or weren't watching the previous 30 minutes. "Clearly, the Democratic strategy here is to pin a shutdown, the blame for a shutdown, on the president," said Javers.
Not sure what Uber’s debt level has to do with whether AAPL bottomed
Judge opened Tuesday's (12/11) Halftime with some breaking news — replaying the show's commentary from a day earlier.
Judge suggested that Josh Brown perhaps called a bottom in AAPL on Monday. On Tuesday, Brown said, "I think if you're a bull, you don't need it to run up 10 points." (Later on, he'd complain about not being able to finish a sentence, but he finished that one.)
The Najarii love to opine on this subject every 5 minutes; Pete Najarian squeezed in a broader tech assessment before Judge gave way to Marc Lasry, who noted AAPL has "no real debt" and compared AAPL's valuation favorably to Uber.
As for the broader market, Joe said something about how it's a trading environment Joe wasn't on the show Rob Sechan declared, "The machines right now are outright negative."
Josh Brown tried to say that last year "priced in the great environment we're in in 2018," while Rob Sechan tried to interrupt him.
"Can I just finish one sentence?" Brown complained.
Jon Najarian asserted, "The higher vol doesn't necessarily mean the market can't be up."
Marc Lasry stated that noise in Washington will make people look to debt. Judge reported on Janet Yellen's (except Judge didn't tell viewers who the woman was until 2 minutes into the conversation) (we wuz wondering, "Who's he talking about??") comments to Paul Krugman about today's corporate debt looking a bit like the "subprime packages." Marc Lasry said 80% of newly issued debt is "all covenant-lite," and "that's what's getting her nervous."
Bob Nardelli on the 5 p.m. show pronounced the GM CEO as Mary "Bower."
Where’s the ‘Truth Trio’?
On Monday's (12/10) Halftime Report, Josh Brown spoke about the stock market ... but it sounded as if he could've been talking about his own program.
"Short term, you need a new high. If you don't get a new high, you're wasting your time," said Brown.
One person who doesn't find this ghastly market a waste of time is Joe Terranova, who said what he always says declared again that "this is a trading market" while bemoaning the shellacking of asset managers. (Joe did say to buy the Q's.)
"There is just an awful lot of pessimism in the market right here," said Jon Najarian, who tried to claim once again that someone buying options is automatically correct, pointing to people making one-day trades on a bearish S&P 500.
Brown stressed that sentiment has changed, but corporate fundamentals haven't.
Jim Cramer offered, "I would think that if this day manages to finish in the black, there will be a lot of people who say, 'You know what, we finally have what we wanted — the whoosh down.'" (We've had a couple of those a week for about 6 weeks.) Josh Brown said that makes sense because even utilities got hit.
Yeah. Sure. We bet everyone now believes that the stock market pullback is over.
Brown did identify a supposed bright spot in AAPL. "The buyers have come in and changed the trend," Brown said.
On Friday's (12/7) 5 p.m. Fast Money, Karen Finerman rattled off a bunch of things she didn't like, in particular, this Huawei situation. On Friday's Halftime Report, Steve Liesman was brought in again; we didn't hear it all, but it was probably something along the lines of (not exact words) "The Fed's doing everything right and the market just misunderstood the message."
Lee Cooperman:
‘Where’s the euphoria?’
Lee Cooperman dialed in to Thursday's (12/5) Halftime Report and sounded downright giddy.
Every stock market red flag Judge and the panelists could suggest, Lee swept away like so much debris.
Lee started off on his favorite target, the SEC, and its apparent non-response to algo trading; he mocked "these trend followers" who "buy an up market" and "sell a down market" and concluded, "The technology has overpowered the market's ability to deal with it."
Then, Lee rattled off Templeton's 4 stages of bull markets that you've heard many times, said there's no euphoria, and then crowed to Judge, "When you guys have a special session tonight to talk about the market weakness, that will mark the bottom."
Steve Weiss insisted there has indeed been some euphoria. Lee told Weiss maybe that's true in pockets, but, "The public is lookin' over their shoulder, they remember 2008, they're committed to not get caught again."
That's a great quote, and about half of what this page has said for a couple of years — that stocks such as AAPL, FB and GOOGL, basically the most successful companies of all time, are never going to get their due and will trade at ridiculously low multiples because there's a bunch of people who are so sure they're never going to get fooled again by a 2000 or 2008 type of situation.
Weiss further questioned whether 15, or anything, is the correct market multiple. Lee responded, "You make it sound like the stock market is very homogeneous. What's homogeneous is the bond market. ... The stock market is heterogeneous."
Weiss said he agrees with Lee on algos and doesn't know why the "Uptech" (sic that's how he first pronounced it before correcting) Rule (Zzzzzzzz) (notice you only hear about that during bad markets) was ever removed.
Joe Terranova mentioned oil and brought up the "seriously but not literally" administration, first time we've heard that in maybe a year.
Lee shrugged that falling oil is actually helpful to global economies. Joe insisted, "Below 50 it's going to be a negative in particular for the high-yield market." Lee shrugged and said he owns Nabors.
Judge asked if we could be in a "cyclical bear market within a secular bull market." Lee uncorked the line of the day, stating, "The TV programs create a lot of craziness."
Lee suggested economic fundamentals do not indicate recession and noted that the market isn't always an indicator, evidenced by the 1987 plunge. "It turned out telling you nothing, other than portfolio insurance was a bogus concept," Lee said.
Joe questioned if "the real bubble is in passive investing" (Zzzzz) (snicker).
Jon Najarian said the Huawei situation is concerning because it happened Saturday and traders didn't know until Wednesday. But Weiss called it a "non-issue whatsoever."
Doc said he finally bought FB again, at 134. (This writer is long FB.) Doc and Kari Firestone trumpeted buying AAPL on the dip, though Weiss haggled with Kari's initial rationale, that she added because the stock is down so much recently.
Doc said he liked the "washout" that seemed to take place Thursday morning.
Weiss actually said something about financials that this page has been saying for years: "The way I look at the banks, is if the market's goin' up, maybe the banks go up, but other stuff's gonna go up more than the banks," Weiss said.
We had the pleasure of catching the 5 p.m. Fast Money on Thursday at a car dealership service center and took note of the audience reaction.
Everyone waiting for a vehicle seemed oblivious to the commentary of Tim Seymour and Dan Nathan. (That's not an editorial judgment, just reporting basic fact.)
We noticed, however, that the Fast Money crew was assembled not at the Nasdaq but Englewood Cliffs as though it were a glorified Power Lunch. Karen Finerman, dynamite in sleeveless two-tone, expressed more hesitancy than Lee Cooperman of hours earlier. Karen said of the Huawei situation, "That is not gonna go unanswered. So I think we're in for more bad news on the tariff front."
Karen also opined, "I think though that tariffs and trade is what moves this market, I really do, and I do not think we are in the clear at all."
Guest Christopher Harvey, who apparently has been flip-flopping recently with S&P 500 calls, told the panel, "One of the things that we don't have, is we don't have liquidity coming out of the system."
Karen smartly asked Harvey the question that Judge won't ask anyone (especially Mike Wilson): "When you talk about liquidity, I'm unclear, talking about liquidity in the markets or ... liquidity in the banking system, or credit card, what are you talking about?"
Harvey's response: "When we talk about liquidity, it's really credit. Do you have access to capital." (Translation: It doesn't mean a damn thing, it's just a bogus term used to justify our coin-flip-twist-in-the-wind market calls.)
Dan Nathan brought up Lee Cooperman's comment about "craziness" created by TV people and said, "It's fine if you wanna blame me," but not so fast with the other panelists.
So much for free-market capitalism and Goldilocks: S&P down 1.7% since Larry Kudlow joined White House March 14 (a/k/a Is Donald Trump sliding toward massive embarrassment in 2020?)
Did Judge go an entire program without a commercial?
#yeesh #lostrevenue
OK. On Tuesday's (12/4) Halftime Report, Judge opened with what's become his customary backhoe/backfill routine in which panelists guess a new reason why the stock market has stumbled (that's past tense).
Remember, first it was going to be "liquidity" (whatever that means; Joe Terranova threw the term around all day Tuesday), then the "velocity of rates," then it was the Fed, then it was China, then it was (courtesy of Mike Wilson) the market suddenly believing Nov. 6 would be a big day for Republicans and was selling off because GOP control of everything was believed to worsen the national debt, now the new bogeyman is either slowing economy/inverted yield curve.
Stephanie Link, as always, got into verbal fisticuffs with a fellow panelist ignored Steve Grasso's sound advice that stocks trade together 70% of the time and once again insisted during a horrific day for stocks that there really are a lot of great individual stories out there!
Quint Tatro — who actually dates back to the Eric Bolling Fast Money days, if you can believe that (when Tatro was nicknamed (remember when they did those?) "The Kentucky Colonel") — called tech stocks "value traps" and, like everyone else on the program who was asked to opine on the subject, indicated Donald Trump actually accomplished nothing in Buenos Aires.
"There was no meat at all in that dinner," Tatro said.
Joe made the case for "rebalancing" (Zzzzzzzzz). Joe wore a sharp suit and said "it's important to understand" that we're in some kind of whipsaw environment in which breakouts aren't happening.
Judge suggested a couple times that investors are making a "mountain" out of things that are really a "molehill."
Honestly, he's right. Identifying the cause of this awful market is impossible (just listen to people on CNBC). Pullbacks can make sense, but this market doesn't know what it's doing; this isn't 2000 or 2008.
Steve Grasso contended on the 5 p.m. Fast Money, "I think we're going to February lows. I don't know if they even hold." The problem with believing that — and we've fallen for this WAY too many times — is that if you finally decide, "I've had it, I'm getting out," then you and others are marking the bottom like a cat in a litterbox and will quickly start feeling like a chucklehead when enormous demand suddenly returns for a lot of these stocks.
Back on Halftime, Josh Brown made the case that a pullback in stocks doesn't have to be a crash like 2008 or 2000-02. Judge tried to claim Mike Wilson has been saying the same thing. (What happened to Mike's Oct. 1 prediction that people would chase the stuff that's working and chase the stuff that hasn't been working into year-end?) #judge'sselectivememory
Jon Najarian kept pointing to the VIX being 19. Guy Adami at 5 p.m. said he's concerned that the VIX wasn't higher.
Ron Insana on Halftime informed everyone that he wrote something on the predictive powers of the yield curve a couple months ago.
The panelists/hosts of both shows were missing what's developing as the big story here: Whether this presidency is crashing under embarrassing ineptitude. It's true that Donald Trump has a lengthy résumé of bouncing back from seemingly catastrophic blunders. But bungling his remarks/viewpoints toward Charlottesville wasn't costing farmers any money. He's never articulated exactly what he wants from China or how he is hurting its economy. If this stock meltdown really is for real — i.e., no reason to buy until April at the earliest — then this presidency is burnt toast.
Note: Financial markets and U.S. post offices will be closed Wednesday for a very good reason — a national day of pausing and paying respect to an office that deserves it. We don't always agree with the individuals who hold that office, but we are proud to pay respects.
John Stoltzfus: Up to 7% upside left in this year’s market
While the early portion of Monday's (12/3) Fast Money was devoted to coverage of Bush events, we did later hear John Stoltzfus say he thinks the stock market might have another 7% upside before year-end.
Wonder if he cleared that with Mike Wilson.
Karen Finerman said Monday's market seemed to lose steam when it became clear "there's a little bit of fuzziness" around the China "deal"; Karen for example didn't know that the 90-day window started Jan. 1 until Monday. (Neither did we, until we heard Karen mention it.) (Note: This administration isn't the tightest ship of all time.)
Karen said FL at 25 times earnings is "more interesting" than NKE at 25 times earnings.
Imagine that: Goldman Sachs
has a ‘negative narrative’
Judge on Monday's (12/3) Halftime Report asked the panel an interesting question from a viewer: How long until GS hits 250.
Steve Weiss said the answer is "Why?" Mark Tepper said 250 "could be 3-4 years down the road." Jim Lebenthal, apparently absent for the last 10 years, stated that the problem for GS is "sentiment" and "negative narrative" (rather than today's Ivy League hotshots preferring "The Social Network" to "Wall Street").
Discussing the bullish MS call, Jim claimed the bull "thesis" is, "You've gotta predict that the stock market in general, globally, is gonna be up 10-15% in the next 12 months."
Judge summarized that argument: "You can't buy a financial stock unless you think the stock market's gonna be up 10-15% ... 'cause that's what you just said."
"That's not what I said," Jim insisted.
"That's what he said, Scott. I'm with you," said Weiss.
Joe Terranova said MS is "well-positioned" for 3-5 years.
Weiss said he added more V last week and Monday morning, and he added GPN.
Weiss claimed "everything's in place" for a year-end rally and that we'll "steal part of the January Effect into December."
Jim curiously said that if we get good pre-announcements, we could get a Christmas rally that "will tear your eyeballs out."
Mark Tepper has a 2,925 S&P target for year-end and said "the rest of the global leaders are all in agreement that we are not experiencing optimal trade policy right now," which apparently means we might sort things out with China.
Bryn Talkington contended, "80% of selloffs are just market corrections."
Weiss contended the Fed was still professing "data-dependency" on Oct. 3. Jim argued, "Not on Oct. 3. They were hell-bent on raising rates."