CNBCfix - Fast Money Review

[CNBCfix Fast Money Review Archive — June 2018]

Ten. Years!

Time.

Flies.

We don't actually know the exact date this site surfaced on the World Wide Web, only that it was the end of June 2008.

Somehow, we're still here.

Happy 4th ... and happy trading!

[Friday, June 29, 2018]

Today, Citi owes $335 million for failing to adjust credit card rates

On Friday's Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal got the first crack at guest host Mel's top subject, CCAR, a government contraption that at this point in time is 1) about 12 years too late and 2) completely unneeded and 3) has never accomplished anything, stating, "A lot of the banks were approved to give payout ratios above 100%," so maybe the government had been a bit too conservative in the past. (Ya think?)

JJ Kinahan said it "really surprises" him that GS and MS were down and apparently penalized for a "1-time tax charge."

As for the supposed trade war, "I think the jury's still out," JJ said. (It'll all be over if Donald Trump gives up Formosa (see below).)

Josh Brown said he disagrees with the entire previous conversation that indicated CCAR is a major catalyst. "There is nobody that was looking at CCAR like it was a question mark," Brown said. Rather, it's the "narrowing yield spread" that's affecting banks, Brown said.

Brown even said, "In fact, you may be getting to the point where people start using the "R" word, um, if this current trend continues."

But JJ said he thinks banks got "punished too much." But Jim said Brown is "absolutely right" about the yield curve.

Jim thinks the curve is as flat as it is because the long bond is too low and contended that even if the 10-year doesn't begin with a "4," the 10-year/30-year spread will widen into a "steeper yield curve."

Brown said, "Jim, I don't think that's true."

Honestly ... we say this just about every day on this page ... we have no idea why people on this program obsess over these stupid bank trades, which is like trying to outguess (that's the correct verb here) the entire market rather than doing the supposed bottoms-up research they often claim to do and find truly undervalued stocks.

And wouldn't you know it ... it's almost like we script the program ... halfway into the program, Sue Herera delivered breaking news that Citigroup has to pay customers $335 million, boy that's just incredible management 10 years after Chuck Prince, just the latest in the incredibly embarrassing spree of fines and settlements racked up seemingly weekly if not monthly among America's biggest banks (this page mentions this just about every other day, but someone's still going to be boasting about "aggressively adding to Citi" in 2 shakes of a lamb's tail). #1590SATscorerswatchTheSocialNetworknotWallStreet

Kevin O'Leary explained the importance of Quebec seats in Canadian politics. Technical problems interrupted Kevin's connection.

Josh does far more talking than Mel or anyone else

Halftime panelists don't talk about NKE as much as they used to, which unfortunately would've been helpful this week.

Josh Brown and Jim Lebenthal both admitted they missed this week's trade, even though Brown has recently touted the breakout over 70. Jim by contrast has warned about the high-20s multiple, even though most people believe multiples don't matter for short-term trading.

Jay Sole said NKE's North America rebound is "quite convincing," even citing the "sneakers app." Brown mentioned Nike benefitting from the "ultra low-quality shoe offerings aft- even after all these years that we're still seeing out of competitors like Under Armour." Brown said he looks on StockX at 11 p.m. to find the VaporMax in Size 13.

Jim asked Sole if he's comfortable with a 30 multiple even in the wake of these earnings. Sole said there's more optimism about getting to $50 billion in revenue.

Brown asked Sole when Nike's offerings on Amazon would really begin to "make a big splash." Sole said the percentage of overall U.S. products on sale is down to 45% from 60% last year. (We weren't sure if he meant only Nike products or all U.S. retail products; Mel never clarified.)

Sole indicated he likes JWN, his top pick, even more than NKE.

JJ Kinahan said he owns Under Armour; "obviously Nike had the- would've been a better choice, had the big jump today."

JJ (and everyone else) should just stick to FAANG

Stephen Tusa, perhaps Judge's favorite analyst or at least his go-to guy on GE, dialed in to Friday's Halftime guest-hosted by Mel to dub the latest GE news "neutral" or "net negative."

Mel asked Tusa about this curious $60 billion number, which Tusa says is what they "basically need to bring them in line with their peers when it comes to their balance sheet."

According to Tusa, the way the execs explained it this week, "Somehow, um, a net $5 billion in actual cash coming in in 12 months, OK in 12 months, became $60 billion of cash, problem solved."

As for the dividend, "It is going to get cut," Tusa declared, stating "that's actually the new news."

Mel had to break for presidential remarks as Donald Trump even said former inmates are being hired "in record numbers" and businesses are saying "they are fantastic."

After the Trump remarks, Mel revisited GE. Jim Lebenthal said he doesn't like GE and offered to "simplify" the situation: "There is no way of knowing, no way at all, what they're gonna earn this year or next year," Jim said.

JJ Kinahan, who seemed to mention a lot of tough personal trades on Friday, admitted he owns GE; "I bought it on the way down ... some of it's definitely a loss."

Kinahan explained, "I'm a believer in the management team." But he cautioned, "If you're doing this for a short-term play, it probably will not turn out well."

Josh Brown bluntly stated, "The dividend should be cut to zero." Mel said the stock is in dividend mutual funds, and going to zero would get it kicked out. Brown said "tradition" is no reason for having a dividend. JJ said he doesn't see a zero dividend. Brown said buybacks are better and decried the double taxation of dividends.

JJ trying to thread the needle on TSLA (not sure that’s any better than Karen shorting NFLX (snicker)

Underestimating the simple demand for the stock, JJ Kinahan on Friday's Halftime said he's short TSLA (snicker) through options. He said his time frame is "a month and a half" and suggested the stock "could go all the way back down to 320."

Josh Brown said TSLA has been richly valued ever since it came public.

Jim Lebenthal claimed other companies' electric cars are "selling like hotcakes" (snicker). Brown said that's been the bear case "for about 38,000% now." Jim said Tesla makes "1/100th the number of cars that GMs (sic plural) makes," and "they have no profitability in sight."

Rather than Josh, who has to interrupt everyone on the program every episode, it's more entertaining when Jim tangles with Weiss, who will cut in during Jim's point only to have Jim protest, "Hold on, hold on ... hang on a second ..."

#revenuelite: Mel goes entire program without a commercial

On Friday's Halftime, Jim Lebenthal said Bank of America's upgrade of KBH with a 37 target is the "right" call. He called the sector a "very good buy." JJ Kinahan said the builders are confident about traffic if not so happy with lumber prices.

Jim said AXP is "not my favorite stock"; he wonders why not own (yep) C or JPM, or V or MA, instead. JJ said he's got "a lot of faith" in AXP.

Josh Brown said he wouldn't overreact to STZ's slide if he were long.

Jim said GBX is as cyclical of a company as you can find and said its results suggest the trade war is not actually "hitting home." (Translation: Starting to realize nobody should believe what they're hearing about a supposed trade war unless they also believe in George Strait's oceanfront property in Arizona.)

JJ likes NVS.

Jim said he sees the XLE continuing higher. Josh Brown said he doesn't make investment decisions based on a quarter ending. JJ predicted we'll "continue to see a lot of volatility."

Josh Brown said he's still long ALB and called it a "long-term play."

We had to wince near the end of the show while Mel insisted for some reason on going ad-free for the whole hour and wearing us out. But begrudgingly to her credit, she crammed in a lot of stuff in a news-shortened window.

CNBC superfox Seema Mody on the 5 p.m. show referred to the "sleep (sic) slide" of bitcoin.

[Thursday, June 28, 2018]

As Donald Trump woos North Korea, China bickers over Taiwan (a/k/a predictable and stale presidential politics)

If you show a world atlas to an American person and ask the person to define what all the bordered spaces of land represent, the person is likely to use one term: "countries."

Or possibly "nations," although that has a broader meaning.

But that's about it. Our vocabulary doesn't allow a whole lot of nuance here, one reason we prefer math to English or history around here.

Those who occasionally notice our home page know how much we like this subject. Take your pick. Gibraltar. Monaco. Ukraine. Puerto Rico. We like it so much, even if we were somehow having a conversation with Seema Mody/Joumanna Bercetche, if someone brought this up, we'd drop what we're doing to discuss it. And oh yeah, the mothership of this mental exercise. It's in the news again, as China is balking at U.S. airlines NOT referring to "Taiwan" as a part of "China."

This is Mr. Xi's way of alerting the Western World that, if we expect the Koreas to unify, toss out some of the lingering bums and dump the nukes, we better be preparing a 1997 Hong Kong-esque ceremony in Taipei.

The thing is, Taiwan is as much a part of China as Cuba is part of the United States. Unlike the airlines, Wikipedia at this point is not so bullied, dubbing Taiwan a "state" (though not one of the "United States"). Up until about 1971 or so, the Western World claimed China IS Taiwan.

Optimists hope North Korea is ceded the way East Germany was. China is not nearly as weak as the Soviet Union in 1987.

The decades-long game that's been played is for China to pretend to endorse sanctions on North Korea while the United States pretends to consider Taiwan one of Mao's provinces.

We don't know how that's going to turn out. We do know that in defining this particular patch of island, it's clear a lot of Ph.D.s and supposedly brilliant people aren't really sure what they're talking about.

Alli insists banks ‘should be up’

Alli McCartney, a cute chatterbox, said on Thursday's Halftime that she is "absolutely" a buyer of banks; "we're buying on this weakness."

"These should be up already; they're down almost 5% on the year," McCartney said, ignoring that the banks are dinosaur trades claiming CCAR would "embolden" the banks trade.

"Why do you care about volatility?" Steve Weiss asked McCartney. "We definitely care about it less than you do," McCartney asserted. "You don't know I- I don't care about vol at all," Weiss explained.

Everyone talked about his/her favorite oil names.

Seema Mody reported on the dollar's impact on emerging markets.

Alli said her shop took its overweight on EM to neutral on Monday. "We were overweight about 2 quarters," Alli said.

Jim Lebenthal said "you have to have an active manager" in EM; he doesn't like the ETFs. Mike Farr suggested GOOGL, JNJ and PEP as alternatives to international companies.

The panel took up Amazon's move into pills and self-delivery. Weiss admitted "McKesson was a terrible call yesterday," but he said he doubled his ABC stake. Jim Lebenthal said the delivery news is more important; "there's real risk for UPS and FedEx."

Guest host Mel's Call of the Day was CFRA downgrading FB to hold with a 215 (snicker) target. Mike Farr likes the stock and doesn't understand why someone would change their call. Jim pushed the argument that young people don't like Facebook and it's become the "soccer mom" app. (Jim wasn't asked to opine on whether FB or GS would be first to $300.)

Mel said BMO made CRM its top pick. Weiss said it's one to "hold and put away."

Light-news day from the Chauncey Gardner presidency

Jim Lebenthal on Thursday's Halftime Report said IBM is a "fairly complicated situation." He said it won't get a multiple above 10 or 11 "until they fix the margin problem."

Guest host Mel asked what happens to the stock if it's announced that Ginni is leaving. Steve Weiss cracked that if Jim is brought in as CEO, it goes lower.

Jim said MSG has been great, but "I'm out of it now."

Mike Farr, a chap who's impossible to dislike, said MKC "makes sense."

Pete Najarian said he thinks BBBY is losing to TGT and TJX.

Weiss said CMG is "hitting reality" after surging on the arrival of the new CEO, who was "paid in advance in terms of the stock price for what he was gonna do." Weiss said the stock is "so overvalued."

Pete said the buying in DVN January 50 calls was so big, he had to get in. CAKE January 60 calls also got his attention.

Pete said NKE is a "buy," but he's "putting it at a hold" apparently before earnings. (He should've skipped the hold, based on afterhours trading.) (This review was posted overnight Thursday-Friday.) Jim brought up the 27 multiple. Weiss claimed "they lost their entire management team to the #MeToo movement."

Anthony Grisanti said 1,245 is the next level of support in gold; he'd buy here.

Pete hung a 25 on UAA.

Jim claimed people negative on INTC would have to think the new CEO will find "a lot of things that were swept under the rug a la GE." He said it's "definitely" a buy.

Weiss said he likes NVDA, but "now's not the time" to buy it.

Jim's final trade was REGN. Weiss said MCK and ABC. Mike Farr said FDX. Pete said HLT.

[Wednesday, June 27, 2018]

Supposed trade-war selloffs are gifts, though it’s true they can become even better gifts

Kari Firestone opened Wednesday's Halftime stating, "I think it's clear that the president cares about the stock market's performance."

But Kari questioned if the White House was trying to "test" how much it can affect the market.

Steve Weiss said, "I think you're giving the White House a little too much credit in saying, uh, in thinking they are testing the market to see how far they can go. They're not."

Rather, Weiss said, "The volatility is just tremendous; most of it coming from the White House." Weiss said it's not a rising tide anymore and there's still a lot of "carnage"; look at MU. (This writer is long MU.)

Pete Najarian explained that it's all a negotiation "each and every time."

Kari said, "I can't remember an administration that had this style of, uh, reacting and responding to the market. It's too much."

Kari curiously said, "I think it's best to put blinders on ... and try to avoid listening to all of the noise outside." (That hasn't worked for Jim Lebenthal, who arrived late and indicated he actually believes what the White House is saying and pronounced us in a "trade war.")

Steve Liesman, invoking Wall Street Journal headlines, pointed out the roller coaster nature of the 2018 market. Liesman said 5% (snicker) is the top of the range for Q2 GDP growth and that the bottom number was 3.7%.

Jim Lebenthal claimed Q2 GDP "really hangs on trade war right now," then, in a howler, actually said with a straight face, "There could be a very bad outcome (snicker) of this trade war."

What difference does it make if it’s BABA; doesn’t Pete like ANY stock in which the options fire up?

Pete Najarian on Wednesday's Halftime mentioned having so much energy exposure, we can't even list it all.

Steve Weiss talked up DNR. Kari Firestone said her shop owns PSX and SLB.

Jeff Kilburg insisted crude's still in a 64-75 range.

Meanwhile, Weiss mentioned potential opportunities in names such as AGN and IQ, and Pete talked up BABA but said he's not in it right now; he wants to see the options "really start to fire up."

After Weiss basically already said it, guest host Melissa Lee correctly said, "Nobody has cared about anything when it comes to financials except for the yield curve. That's the problem with this trade."

Jim Lebenthal claimed GS and MS are also in the "crosshairs" of this "trade war."

Sounds like ISRG’s tape might be more useful than Steve Liesman’s GDP survey

Guest host Missy Lee's Call of the Day on Wednesday's Halftime was Bernstein initiating ISRG, BSX and ABT with double-digit upside.

Kari Firestone tossed in ABMD. Pete Najarian trumpeted "unbelievable option activity" in MDT. Pete (sorta) explained why he sometimes buys the stock instead of just the calls.

Pete called ISRG a "great measuring stick of the economy itself."

BTIG also upgraded YUM to buy with a $92 target. Jim Lebenthal said "the valuation is terrific" and he likes it as a "middle of the fairway" stock.

Pete said he'd stay away from YUMC. That stock got Jim's attention, stating Yum China is held in a lot of China ETFs and mutual funds and is probably being dumped with those funds.

Kari said TEVA is in a "search for identity." She said if it can "produce some earnings," it can continue higher. That's true for many stocks.

Not clear why Pete continues to own PEP given the face he made while discussing it

Leslie Picker on Wednesday's Halftime reported on whatever proxy controversy ISS is involved in (something about holding companies "hostage"); one chap likened the system to a "protection racket."

Kari Firestone said, "If Salesforce dropped any further, we would buy more."

Pete Najarian doesn't expect "a whole lot more" upside in PEP.

Jim Lebenthal said you "have to make a call" on the (yep) U.S.-China "trade war" before buying X.

Steve Weiss explained why CAG and PF were both falling; he said the multiple is high, so while it may eventually be a buy, "not here."

Pete hailed WWE's deal.

Jim said he "wouldn't read too much into this" regarding SONC's slide.

Pete said UAA July 23 calls were popular. Also, COP July 70.50 calls.

Weiss recapped MU's China issues. (This writer is long MU.)

Pete's final trade was BP. Kari said FRC. Weiss said MCK. Jim said RDSa.

[Tuesday, June 26, 2018]

Jim silent on INTC takedown

Guest host Melissa Lee's Call of the Day on Tuesday's Halftime was Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon turning bearish on INTC, even saying he "regrets" upgrading the stock in April.

Rasgon conceded, "I do regret it," rationalizing it with something about investors were going to look for this but are now looking for that, but he said he thinks the "surface logic" of his upgrade was correct.

Rasgon said the resignation of Brian Krzanich was "important," because the stock is "much less likely to inflect sharply upward if numbers continue to go up."

Rasgon admitted he "hesitated to speculate in print" as to who should be CEO. But he said the tapping of Bob Swan indicates internal as well as external candidates.

Jim Lebenthal, who a week ago Monday basically said you'll be sorry if you don't buy INTC at 53, was on the show but wasn't asked about Rasgon's call.

And nothing about the furious battle for those all-important Fox film assets either

About halfway through Tuesday's Halftime Report, Joe Terranova said, "I think that's a record for the month of June. We went 25 minutes, we didn't talk about the FAANGs."

How in the world could anything GE says still surprise someone?

Morgan Brennan on Tuesday's Halftime Report summarized CNBC's earlier interview with John Flannery, stating GE revealed plans to become "more focused, stronger, simpler."

Brennan said Flannery said that as far as any more surprises or skeletons, "we're done."

Brennan thinks it's "safe to say" that the GE dividend won't be eliminated, though it could be lowered in 12-18 months "when health care is its own company."

Jim Lebenthal said he'll "thaw" a bit on GE, but he's not buying yet. He said Tuesday's outlook confuses balance sheet with income statement.

Rob Sechan said the GE power business "continues to deteriorate." He views the stock more as a "trade" than an "investment story."

Guest host Mel questioned if it takes "just a small improvement" in the GE balance sheet to move the stock. Joe Terranova said it could work as a trade, but "pension liabilities are a big issue." Doc said those amount to "$30 billion."

Doc said Flannery's timing was "impeccable" as far as not talking about selling Baker Hughes in February.

MCC pointed out on Power Lunch that CNBCers are allowed to own 2 stocks, GE and CMCSA.

Isn’t it about time for Congress to investigate if traders are inflating the price of oil?

At the top of Tuesday's Halftime Report, Joe Terranova raised eyebrows if not howls by mentioning the possibility of an "SPR release" (snicker).

Rob Sechan said, "We've encouraged clients to migrate from growth to value." They might want to be careful about that type of migration; might get separated from profits.

Joe said, "Iranians will be the losers" of whatever's going on regarding world oil production, pointing to the widening gap in dated oil futures and the narrowing with Brent. Joe said it's "bad for refiners" but good for energy equities, though they won't move as much as the spot price.

Joe suggested PXD, OXY and EOG, and even CHK as a "high-beta play."

Jim Lebenthal said "short-term issues" in the oil space "can be overturned relatively quickly." He touted Royal Dutch Shell again and SLB.

Jon Najarian talked up frackers. Lindsey Bell said there's a ".92 r-squared correlation" between WTI oil prices and the energy earnings.

Doc said rising fuel is a problem for FDX, UPS, JBHT and other truckers, cruise lines.

Jim said consumers are "used to" $3 a gallon. Can't really argue with that.

Sully, at the World Gas Conference in D.C., said maybe Texas won't be able to ramp up as much "easily replaced" barrels as people think.

Later, Sully tried to explain whether Rick Perry was really mad at OPEC or not. (And Karen Finerman is surprised to learn that administration officials aren't really all on the same page.)

Doc said he dumped his AAL calls but held on to DAL (citing the refinery, which suddenly matters again). Doc said he likes BA. Rob Sechan touted MLPs again. Sechan joked that interest rates are "stable and volatile" at the same time.

Rob told Jim that the pace of rate increases is "likely to slow," while energy prices look sustainable. Lindsey Bell said the consumer can handle $70 oil, but if it goes to 80-85, "then we're gonna have a little bit more of a problem." (Translation: Crack down on the speculators.)

Jeff Kilburg said crude will stay range-bound. "I think you sell this rip," Jeff said. Jim Iuorio though said he can see 74 or 75.

Karen Finerman, dynamite in gray and prominent necklace, said on the 5 p.m. show, "I don't find value in oil right now between Friday and today's moves," suggesting other countries may not go along with Donald Trump's policies.

Once he gets tired of tariffs, it’ll be back to Obamacare or Birtherism

Lindsey Bell said on Tuesday's Halftime that she doesn't see a recession around the world for at least a year and a half; she said the global growth story "might not fully be over yet."

People selling 90 BUD puts were buying BUD August 100 calls, according to Jon Najarian, who also said BABA September 210 calls were getting bought.

Joe Terranova likes the diversification of MGM for the longer term.

Doc said of Spotify, "a lot of folks are piling into this space."

Jim Lebenthal said LEN shows that rates are more important than tariffs.

Rob Sechan is taking profits in retail because of tariffs.

Rob said he reduced his overweight-EM position.

Jim said you can get in CAT, "but you may have to wait for a couple of months." He even suggested "dollar-cost average" (translation: thinks it's going lower, so makes no sense to buy until he thinks it's going higher).

Doc likes FB.

Joe said, "I still don't believe that the coast is clear" regarding trade.

Rob Sechan's final trade was buying XLF (snicker). Doc said ENB. Jim said CELG, "ridiculously cheap." Joe said ISRG.

[Monday, June 25, 2018]

Steve Grasso: When market stumbles on trade, it’s always ‘ripped right back’

Evidently waking up for the first time since 2016, Karen Finerman on Monday's Fast Money said she was concerned about the comments from the White House because "it didn't seem like everybody was on the same page."

Steve Grasso theorized that Donald Trump restarted this trade war after returning from his summit with Jong Un; he "wants to put pressure on China," Grasso said.

While Tim Seymour and Guy Adami actually claimed the Fed put is gone (snicker), Grasso said, "Every time the market has sold off on trade concerns, the market has ripped right back on some type of a positive headline. I don't think that this is any different." We'll take it a step further and, regarding Monday, throw in the term "gift." (Translation: 1) This isn't the fall of Lehman Brothers, and 2) after the market rockets back, the others will say "Anybody who makes trades based on what Donald Trump says or does is really dumb.")

Jon Najarian goes from 5% cash to 77% cash; Erin Gibbs says ‘definitely’ buy in September

Uncorking a curious verb at the top of Monday's Halftime, Joe Terranova said that last week, "Pete and I dialogued about the volatility being very low."

"I bought QQQ puts last week," Joe added, asserting, "Technology clearly is rolling over."

Joe again mentioned "the blackout window." As for the market shellacking on Monday, Joe said it's "temporary ... but I don't think this is over."

Steve Weiss asserted, "There are lots of problems, lots of issues to navigate."

That's curious, because on June 14 (see below), Josh Brown said, "I never say this, but it's, it's like too good right now." #pickyourpundit

Meanwhile, on Monday, Erin Gibbs said it was "already concerning" that growth was getting so far ahead of value (snicker) and that tech was outperforming by so much.

Jon Najarian seemed to be recapping not Monday but the previous golden age of tech stocks (that is, about 10 days ago), saying that his calls were getting called away, and "I'm even out of Apple."

Typically, Doc tends to be a reassuring voice during scary selloffs, but Monday, he said he's in 77% cash, "and I'm usually at 5% cash."

Sarat Sethi though was talking about buying. "Now, start legging in," Sarat said, predicting in a few years, this will just be a "blip," though he said the market could go "another 5 to 10% lower."

Sarat trumpeted industrials at 16-17 times earnings. He also called financials "a big area" (snicker) that's trading below last year's P.E.

Doc mentioned the yuan hitting a "new low for the year" and said there's "a lot going on with the German market."

Joe explained, "It's important to keep things in a very simplistic capacity. ... This is not a portfolio event. ... This is a trading event."

Joe questioned if the short-volatility trade has been re-levered. Doc said the VIX made a "huge move" and that people are buying "way out-of-the-money puts" in September. (Are they people who previously bought puts and then rolled them down after making a huge profit?)

In the latest instance of threading the needle, Erin Gibbs said the market might "hold steady" for bit, but, "Definitely September, get back in."

Weiss: Probably have to ‘give up the ghost’ on big banks

Jonathan Krinsky on Monday's Halftime said it's "nothing new" that GS and C "have been kind of relative laggards for a while now," and he thinks they have maybe 5-10% more downside.

Actually, early in the year, they couldn't get Judge to stop talking about how GS was hitting a 52-week high (snicker).

Steve Weiss reaffirmed he "shaved" C recently but not enough of it; impressively, Weiss again questioned this dog of a popular trade and said at some point, "you have to give up the ghost on these."

Sarat Sethi tried to suggest C is "the value play" of financials but admitted it's a "value trap right now."

Krinsky said there's "relative weakness" in financials and homebuilders but "relative strength" in consumer staples and REITS. Sarat touted EQIX.

Thought it was a ‘stock-picker’s market,’ but it seems like everything getting tossed at once

Guest host Melissa Lee on Monday's Halftime said the Call of the Day was Atlantic Equities upgrading MSFT with a $125 target.

In not the most resounding endorsement, Sarat Sethi said MSFT is a good place to "hide."

In another not particularly effusive endorsement, Joe Terranova said MSFT benefits from IT spending; he'd stay with it but suggested you "hedge against it."

Joe added, in the wake of FB controversies, "Microsoft, there's something about this company, that management makes the consumer feel secure that privacy is present."

Steve Weiss said MSFT is a "good place to be" though not "impervious" to days like Monday. And we thought it was a "stock-picker's market."

Jon Najarian said he likes MSFT, but in more minutiae about his recent options positions, he said that in his tax-deferred account, "I let it get called away." Doc said he really likes the "re-occurring (sic not 'recurring') revenue."

Joe said MSFT "could easily fall to the low 90s."

Weiss at one point said NFLX is down only because "it shouldn't be where it is." Later, he said he likes NFLX even though the valuation is "a little higher for me." Kind of odd how often he wanted to talk about this stock out of the blue despite not liking the valuation.

‘Everybody thinks they’re an energy expert’

Steve Weiss on Monday's Halftime said HOG's problem is a "perfect example" of what a trade war can do.

Weiss and Jon Najarian sounded amazed that HOG would eat the whole costs without passing them along. "It's crazy," Doc said.

Seema Mody reported on CCL's tough day. Weiss noted the impact of rising fuel costs and noted how airlines don't hedge anymore.

Doc said he's tried to catch the AAL falling knife a few times, and it hasn't worked. He said he's got calls, "in all likelihood," he'll have to "dump" those calls. He also mentioned bottom-picking and "stinky fingers."

Erin Gibbs touted ULTA and told the male panelists, "You can buy your makeup and get your hair done at the same time." Guest host Missy Lee joked, "They know that already."

Weiss said he still likes EL long term. If you own it, "you don't sell it," Weiss said. Sarat Sethi said it's a "premier" company but "very hard to buy" because it always trades at a premium.

Doc explained why he likes the unusual activity in August 80 OMC calls. (As opposed to all the other options trades he touts.)

Joe Terranova said KR qualifies as a "socially responsible" company.

Sarat Sethi said AXP still has room to go.

Sarat said he's dipping a "very small toe" in the energy space. He touted APA and EOG. Joe spoke of the "paper asset demand" in energy. Joe said the cartel keeps the downside to crude "somewhat limited."

Steve Weiss grumbled that there's always "so much speculation ... everybody thinks they're an energy expert."

Weiss said he's not bullish on LEN ahead of earnings. "It's just not one I'm buying," Weiss said.

Joe said WMT in the lower 80s "is an opportunity."

Doc's final trade was PCG. Sarat said DAL and mentioned the refinery business. Weiss said MU. (This writer is long MU.) Joe said WMT, COST, TGT.

[Friday, June 22, 2018]

Ingmar

There's an important date coming up, and no, we're not talking about the 10th anniversary of the fall of Lehman Brothers, which will spawn endless special features and interviews on CNBC in which Andrew Ross Sorkin and David Faber will retell the same stories that are even more uninteresting now than they were a decade ago.

Circle July 14 on your calendar. That's what would be the 100th birthday of Ingmar Bergman (he passed away in 2007, the same day as Antonioni). Presumably, theaters and streaming services will be preparing tributes, none of which could be more effective than simply showing the work. (If you're reading this page, you're part of the best audience on the Web, so you know exactly what we're talking about here and totally get it.)

At least 15 Bergman films are in the conversation of the greatest films ever made. Note: Watching these is not the same blast you get from seeing "A Few Good Men" or "Jackie Brown." Bergman films, though usually less than 2 hours, reveal truths that are often slow-moving and uncomfortable. The point is just to relax, perhaps with a merlot (always drink responsibly), and let the images come to you. What may seem like a frustrating 90 minutes will linger forever. The fear, and confidence, on the face of Liv Ullmann in "Persona" ... the dilemma of choosing sides in "Shame" ... the boy wandering the halls in "The Silence" that seems so familiar in Stanley Kubrick's "The Shining" ...

Here's one that even the Bergman experts rarely mention. Known in English as "Sawdust and Tinsel," it was originally released as "The Naked Night," and the Swedish title, Gycklarnas afton, translates roughly as "The Clowns' Evening." This is perhaps the greatest film ever made about humiliation — not the sexiest topic — on multiple levels. People of a lower profession, perhaps of a lower class, at odds with authority figures, unfazed by anything yet incredibly vulnerable, in some ways a bit like the Joads in "The Grapes of Wrath." "Sawdust" stars Harriet Andersson, undeniably on the Mount Rushmore of female film actresses. (If Ullmann is Ali, Andersson is Tyson.)

Bergman wore cheap clothes and disdained the spotlight. He lived on a remote island. But this prince of Sverige had as strong of an edge as any artist who ever lived. He's telling you something. Do yourself a favor and find out what it is.

Weiss actually claims Bulge Bracket CEOs are ‘probably the best CEOs’ of this generation

Honestly, we just don't get it.

But whatever floats their boat.

Kate Moore on Friday's Halftime said she is "still constructive on financials."

Well, whoop de do.

Credit Josh Brown for articulating the reality of this sector, pointing out that banks might sell at low multiples forever because "basically they've become utilities de facto, and they are actually going to be competing with fintech companies." (He didn't say they're competing for elite talent and that today's elite talent watches "The Social Network" and not "Wall Street.")

Brown said non-bank financials are doing well, as is STOR, his favorite REIT.

The howler of this conversation came from Steve Weiss, who actually said the current big bank CEOS "are probably the best CEOs we're gonna see in our generations (sic)."

That's because, Weiss explained, "What they had to go through, to navigate their companies through what hit 'em right between the eyes, is amazing."

Really. Regularly settling embarrassing fines and lawsuits is great navigation.

Apparently.

What happened to the Dow being down 7 straight days and the Nasdaq up 1%?

In an instant stumble, Judge for whatever reason opened Friday's Halftime dragging Kate Moore into some curious conversation about keeping an eye on capex spending by certain companies, typically tech.

Jim Lebenthal said the choppy market comes down to "the China issue." Just for kicks, we're gonna call it "The China Syndrome," which is actually a great movie despite its cartoonish finish.

Steve Weiss said "the overhang" in the market is China.

As for suggestions, Weiss said he's not sure INTC has "corrected enough," but you can start buying.

Josh Brown noted NFLX is up 5% this week and that the price-weighted Dow (snicker) doesn't include the FANG stocks.

Brown retraced the history of the Nifty Fifty.

Judge, who slogged through the first 20 minutes with no focus, basically trying to phrase the same question (what will it take to get the bull market back and no more "zigzag") in multiple ways, grew weary with Jim and Josh for not answering his question, sighing that he doesn't want an "economic roundtable."

Steve Weiss tried to make the case for inflation again. Jim halfheartedly claimed this is a "great opportunity" to "pick stocks." He added, "You can find bargains, you can find overpriced stocks; this is a stock-picker's market."

Really, Jim, then where have you been on NFLX all year. Oh, he said he thinks "something like a Netflix is too frothy."

Weiss said you can rewind tapes on this show going back 4 years and you'll hear, "breadth is too narrow" and the market can't keep buying back all this stock. "My advice is ignore it," Weiss said.

We usually do.

Josh Brown said the stocks that have been going up are not the low-valuation stocks.

Mel announced that the 5 p.m. show was actually declaring the "funeral" of bitcoin. We're sure they'll be devoting half of Monday's show to cryptogarbage.

Mel says her first car was a 1987 Chevy Blazer

Judge's Call of the Day on Friday's Halftime was NKE being downgraded to neutral by Buckingham despite a price-target hike from 75 to 80.

Josh Brown said NKE just broke out, so why sell now. Steve Weiss said the analyst is not saying to sell it.

Jim Lebenthal said, "It could come down more than a point or two. ... The chart does look a little toppy."

Jim claimed NKE is "well ahead of itself" at 27 times earnings.

Jim claimed "2 years is my time horizon." Judge pointed out, "We could be in a recession in 2 years."

Judge showed a tweet asking whether SQ or PYPL is better but asked panel about CELG

Pete Najarian on Friday's Halftime said there's aggressive buying in August 230 FB calls.

Josh Brown said it's "unbelievable" how fast FB has recovered from its winter stumble. Judge said when Zuck was on Capitol Hill, "Nobody knew what they were talking about ... the questions weren't all that difficult."

Pete said HAL July 47.50 calls were also popular. Josh Brown said HAL looks "trendless."

Steve Weiss said "one quarter shouldn't bother you" in a stock such as RHT, and he advised listening to the CEO on Cramer's show.

Jim Lebenthal said KMX's gains should continue with used-car pricing up.

Judge said a UBS guy says a potentially big MU correction is coming in 2019. Josh Brown said it's a "weird note." (This writer is long MU.)

Weiss said of MU, "The fundamentals are good now," and there's really not a lot of capacity coming on. He made it his final trade.

In a Futures Now that went basically nowhere, Bob Iaccino said supply disruption is more likely than oversupply in the crude space. Jim Iuorio said he thinks oil "turns around" at 68.60.

Jim said he likes CELG, which he said is "insanely cheap because of some blown trials." Weiss said "it needs a catalyst."

Josh Brown's final trade was SFIX.

[Thursday, June 21, 2018]

Remember when this page on April 17 predicted FB would hit $300 before GS does while GS had $85 head start? It’s down to a $25 lead

On Thursday, we started getting a bit jealous about the lucky chap/gal who gets to watch Halftime at Englewood Cliffs and have a 2-hour dinner with Judge and the traders (see below).

For $16,000. (It'll take us a whole lot of unusual-activity scalps to put together a bid that big.)

(Can't help but wonder ... the whole experience is billed as 3 hours ... does that mean the winner watches the show, goes home and changes clothes, then meets Judge at a restaurant in the evening? Or do they go straight through and have the meal take place at 1:30 p.m.?)

Anyway ... Judge opened Thursday's Halftime stating that Bespoke found that only twice since 1971 has the Dow been down 7 straight days while the Nasdaq was up 1%. (And in any of those other times, was President Donald Trump conducting a trade war with China?)

Erin Browne didn't sound concerned.

Joe Terranova suggested buying some QQQ puts, explaining the Nasdaq could "retreat" during the "blackout window."

Steve Weiss contended, "I think you'll see those trade tensions continue through the midterm elections," because "Middle America, America broadly voters, like the policy that Trump's putting forward."

"They're about not to," Jim Lebenthal cut in, citing the Daimler warning. Jim countered that instead of lingering into November, "I think it will be resolved at least 2 months before the midterm elections."

Judge asked if tech can remain so far ahead of the rest of the market. "I'm not sure the Dow's ever gonna catch up," Weiss said.

"I sold some Citi today," Weiss said. "I still have too much left." He said he'd rather have money in AGN or EXPE or MU (this writer is long MU).

Joe mentioned CCAR (snicker) again, the most widely anticipated irrelevant business report. Weiss said, "Does anybody really expect negative CCAR results?"

Pete Najarian said financials look great over 12 months, not so great year to date. Pete trumpted HD and TJX and how consumers are strong.

Katie Stockton sees no reason to doubt the trend of tech leadership.

Karen Finerman, on the 5 p.m. show, likes C, "the most upside," and as a matter of fact, she likes all the big banks heading into CCAR, which will show the "good shape" of all the banks. "I know that everyone knows that already," Finerman admitted. (If only she had the same enthusiasm for FAANG.)

Joe apparently read every bullet point in the Telsey note (if you need more than 2 reasons a stock will rise, it probably won’t)

Courtney Reagan on Thursday's Halftime explained the Supreme Court ruling on Internet sales tax.

Judge questioned the stock market response to certain names, wondering, does it "seem a little overdone" on some of these stocks, are people really going to stop shopping online.

Erin Browne said the W selloff was overdone.

Courtney said the tax-collection process will probably be forward-looking and not retroactive.

Meanwhile, Judge's Call of the Day was the LULU 145 upgrade by Telsey. Steve Weiss said it's a great company, "However, I just don't think it's worth this price."

Joe Terranova said "the 4th bullet point" in Telsey's note "concerns me," it's about exploring footwear. Weiss said the shoes are "very expensive" and don't appear any better than what Nike sells.

Jim Lebenthal shrugged that the Telsey call on LULU was a "momentum call." Jim said UBS' retail call is "a great call" and much more impressive that someone is "calling a turn" in several names.

Joe said he's not getting out of MA and V despite the Supreme Court ruling, which Joe said has "significance." Weiss said he's long V and MA and finds this "basically a non-event."

FAANG-picker’s market, cont’d

Joe Terranova on Thursday's Halftime Report said there's "no reason to believe" DRI doesn't keep going.

Jim Lebenthal is "kinda lukewarm" on VZ; he'd wait to see if its content investments pay off.

Steve Weiss said the grocery space is tough but that KR "is the best management in the space."

Erin Browne expects energy stocks to bounce back.

Jeff Kilburg said he doesn't see a big boost in production of crude. Scott Nations said 60 has been support.

Pete Najarian said PG July 77 calls as well as some stuff that expires Friday June 22 got his attention.

Erin Browne's final trade was to stay long the retailers. Jim said C (snicker) admitting that "a lot of this is probably priced into the stock." Weiss shrugged that banks are "absolute rate proxies" and said his final trade was "sittin' on my hands." Joe said to "pick up some volatility" (Zzzzzzz).

CNBC visit to watch Halftime and have dinner with Judge & traders fetches $16,000

Thursday afternoon, Judge trumpeted the Lulu & Leo Fund charity auction for a chance to watch the Halftime Report at Englewood Cliffs and then have a meal with Judge and "the traders" afterwards.

We paid attention to the bidding and saw it close at $16,000.

We were mulling a bid ... but that one's a little over our pay grade. (Some nights, it's all we can do to secure a hot meal.) Can you imagine all the stuff that could be talked about at such an event ... oh man ...

According to the guidelines, the offer is only for 1 person, "approximate duration" of 3 hours (which presumably means a 2-hour meal), "something small" can be signed, a photo can be taken, and alcoholic beverages are included in the price.

Winner also gets a signed copy of When the Wolves Bite.

Congrats to the winner.

Can you imagine how much money would be raised if dinner included Seema Mody?

Katie. Bar. The. Door ...

Including dividends, INTC up 157% since May 16, 2013, while QQQ is up 155% (a/k/a Jim thinks company he’s been bullish on needs ‘new vision’)

Judge on Thursday's Halftime delved into the Brian Krzanich situation ... and curiously said INTC is up 117% since Krzanich took over May 16, 2013.

This immediately started tingling the Spider Senses around CNBCfix HQ, because Intel pays a dividend, and Judge didn't make clear whether that number includes dividends.

Apparently not. From what we could calculate (snicker), Judge was figuring the return without dividends and also including Thursday's selloff, not the Wednesday closing price.

Steve Weiss correctly wondered, "What's the rest of the market done?"

"It's outperformed, Steve," said Jim Lebenthal, obviously not willing to do the math.

"How much has it outperformed tech?" Weiss said, mentioning "Google. Amazon."

"We're not gonna dispute this; it's been a winning stock," Jim said.

Based on our non-Kensho calculation, QQQ and INTC are about an even match since Krzanich's reign. QQQ has the bigger capital gain; INTC has the bigger dividend.

Bottom line: It suggests Krzanich has been decent but not indispensible.

Pete Najarian said of the whole situation; "it's unfortunate, obviously."

Pete said Navin Shenoy would be his "front-runner" for new INTC CEO.

In a bit of a stunner, Jim Lebenthal said he disagrees with Pete. "You wanna bring in new blood," Jim said, suggesting poaching someone from NVDA, MU or TXN, someone who would bring in "new vision while keeping the rest of the leadership at Intel intact."

It's odd that Jim would just a couple days ago virtually guarantee that you'll be sorry if you don't buy INTC, only to now state that the company needs a fresh vision.

Judge told Jim, "I'm shocked that you say that."

Steve Weiss cracked, "I learned that I was right in trying not to let Jim talk, because he embarrased himself."

Judge said, "Let's not cross the line, all right."

Irked, Jim said, "I do find if somebody has to insult that that takes some of their argument."

Judge for some reason said, "There are a lot of good race cars out there, right, but there aren't that many good drivers."

Much more from Thursday's Halftime later.

[Wednesday, June 20, 2018]

Weiss on fire, suddenly articulates why banks are dogs, caps show with a bang

For the longest time, Wednesday's Halftime Report appeared to be dead money.

Somehow, in the last 10 minutes, Judge uncorked a fantastic show chock-ful of expert soundbites.

Most significant was when Judge announced at the end of the show that the Call of the Day was C (snicker) being upgraded (double snicker) to a buy (triple snicker) by Deutsche Bank.

Rich Saperstein seemed on board with that. "Citi's one of the cheaper stocks out there," he said, adding he likes the stock.

Steve Weiss opined on the stock, and not at all in the way we've grown to expect. Weiss said he's long, but maybe C just isn't worth more than book or even more than a discount to book.

"I'm waiting for an exit," Weiss admitted.

Saperstein countered that if rates rise and the economy strengthens, the money-center banks will do well. Weiss responded with one of the greatest rebuttals we've heard on the show in years (partly because it's been made on this page over the last few months): "What you just described ... is a short-bond call. So why not short bonds?"

Saperstein said that on the fixed-income side, "we have very short duration across our entire book," so being long banks is his way of playing rising rates on the equity side. Which didn't really answer Weiss' question.

Weiss could not be more correct. Big banks are nothing more than secularly challenged rising-tide trades. There's nothing intrinsic to get excited about here. In fact, if rates are flat or decline for 5 years, these stocks are going to be horrific as Ivy League talent continues to flock westward to reinvent what's still a largely overpriced industry. If you're convinced of rising rates, simply short bonds or do one of those TLT or TBT things (whichever goes in the same direction as rates; actually both charts seem kind of similar this year).

Joe Terranova offered another reason to buy banks besides rising rates: "CCAR's coming!" That's the Mike Mayo Trade, omg, wait'll these tests come out and everyone sees how strong the banks' balance sheets are!!!! Translation: They no longer have enough leverage to fully exploit a roaring economy and seemingly every other day are being embarrassed with fines and settlements.

Weiss correctly stated that if C hits 75, "It's gonna be because rates have rocketed, and then we're closer to the end of the bull market than the beginning."

In a tweener appearance on Closing Bell before the start of Wednesday's Fast Money, Karen Finerman was asked by Kelly Evans about banks. "I think they're, relative to the market, great value," Karen said, adding she's hanging on to BAC, C, JPM. "I agree with Karen," said Pete Najarian, despite being on the Halftime Report hours earlier with Weiss.

If it’s really a ‘stock-picker’s market,’ how come nobody ever pounds the table for NFLX?

NFLX came up on Wednesday's Halftime during a discussion of this ludicrous bidding war taking place over Fox's tired entertainment assets, a subject Josh Brown nailed a day ago.

Pete Najarian said, "I hate the idea of Mr. Iger getting too aggressive ... I don't know that they're there yet." But he said, "This is gettin' pretty real. ... It was an awfully low-ball bid before."

Kari Firestone, skeptical, suggested DIS is trying to pay 7-8-9 years worth of Netflix programming costs for Fox. "I just wonder if that solves the problem for them," Kari said.

Steve Weiss questioned the tandem bidding for stocks such as DISCA and AMCX.

Joe Terranova invoked a time-machine trade, stating, "Think back to a year ago. What was it, 71 billion they're bidding. Throw on another 25 billion a year ago, you coulda bought yourself Netflix."

"Shoulda," Pete said.

That's fine ... but instead of blaming Iger, why isn't Joe chiding his fellow panelists for not buying NFLX when it's apparently the best stock of the year at least among names that get mentioned on the show (and hardly a secret)?

Karen finally admits shorting NFLX last week was ‘just like walkin’ into a buzz saw’

Viewers Wednesday finally got an answer — sorta — from Karen Finerman about that ghastly — sorry, just the truth — move to short NFLX last week based on temporary euphoria of overpaying for entertainment assets and all kinds of spending on new TV shows.

On Wednesday's 5 p.m. Fast Money, debating whether to "trade" or "fade" NFLX and other FANG stocks, Karen Finerman said, "I can tell you, don't fade it last Tuesday, or whenever I did for like a, you know, a day. And that, it's just like walkin' into a buzz saw, just covered, I think that Goldman put out a whatever, 490 doll- billion-dollar price target, maybe. I wouldn't get in the way of that."

We'll ask the question Mel didn't: What in the world were you thinking?? (This writer has no position in NFLX.)

Panelist actually claims ‘There’s a camp that thinks rates are going lower’

This was a mighty head-scratcher.

Judge on Wednesday's Halftime asked Rich Saperstein, who had an iffy show, to defend buying GIS. Saperstein said his clients "are looking to stay rich and not get rich."

OK, fair enough. Take a pass on NFLX.

"I wanna buy names now that have gotten beaten up," Saperstein said, before curiously adding, "There's a camp that thinks rates are going lower."

"What camp thinks rates are going lower? ... I've never heard anybody say rates are going lower," said Steve Weiss.

Saperstein responded, "The ones that are talking about rates going lower are those that believe we're at peak earnings now and the cycle's gonna turn in 2019."

Hmmmm. Not sure we've heard those people talking, but whatever.

Trying to help, Kari Firestone said to Saperstein, "Not lower. You mean not up a lot."

A big chunk of the program was interrupted by Donald Trump's remarks on immigration. Eamon Javers said Trump is doing a "walkback." Javers said there are pictures of Kim Jong Un on the wall in the West Wing.

In January, they were talking about NFLX being in the Greenlight ‘bubble basket’

Our usual note: This page takes no pleasure in stocks going down and isn't rooting for anyone to lose money. Nevertheless, it's true that troubled stocks make for typically the best and liveliest conversations on CNBC.

That was the case on Wednesday's Halftime Report, when Judge declared SBUX's performance has been "just bad."

Joe Terranova said, "I think Jim Cramer nailed it ... the turnaround isn't there." That gave Judge entree to air Cramer's question for Kevin Johnson in the morning that wasn't particularly interesting.

"I think the stock still has more downside," said Steve Weiss.

Weiss said of Howard Schultz's acquisitions, "none of 'em worked, I don't believe."

Also, enjoying an outstanding performance, Weiss correctly pointed out that in SBUX stores, "There's no consistency with anything but the coffee." He could've added that it's pointless to buy any of the food offerings because even the ones that are good will likely be replaced by something else in a few months.

Pete Najarian admitted he bought SBUX "just a couple of days ago." That happens to all of us unfortunately, though it's refreshing to know it happens to a savvy trader too.

Pete said Starbucks should get rid of underperforming stores. Weiss wondered, "How'd that work for JCPenney?" Pete scoffed, "Don't compare them to JCPenney." Weiss said "I'm just sayin', that's not a strategy."

Kari Firestone said SBUX has gone from a 32 multiple to 18 multiple.

Pointing to Asia potential (that's an interesting subject right now), Pete said "everybody knows this number" (actually we didn't), which is that SBUX is opening a new store in China every 15 hours.

Joe Terranova asked what value is left in SBUX if the Asia operation is split off. Kari said, "It's a good place you can go to the bathroom."

Relevancy is why the Dow doesn’t include AMZN, FB, GOOGL ...

Squeezed in around D.C. reporting, Wednesday's Halftime crew got a late crack at GE.

Judge said the GE Dow story is stunning "in and of itself" (sic redundant) (he had been improving recently at avoiding that phrase).

"It's not a surprise logically," Kari Firestone said.

Steve Weiss said GE peaked way back with the dot-com bubble and ever since has been sliding; "frankly there's no reason why it shouldn't continue." Weiss said the Dow dropped GE because it's "trying to stay relevant."

Pete Najarian called GE's debt an "amazing number."

Joe accuses show of paying too much attention to the Dow

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's Halftime Report pointed to highs in the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 and said, "The entire year, we are looking at the wrong thing. We are looking at the Dow."

Actually, we're not aware of the Halftime Report overrating the Dow this year, but whatever.

With curiously low expectations, Kari Firestone said she thinks you can make 2-7% this year, "and then next year, we can set up for a better year for the market."

Rich Saperstein said tax reform is "absolutely powerful" and claimed it's somehow not priced in. Saperstein pointed out that the S&P is basically where it was in December when tax reform was signed.

Pete Najarian said we're in a "summer pause."

Steve Weiss said Powell's comments were "extremely hawkish."

Quibbling with tired cliches definitions, Weiss said, "It's not necessarily stock-pickers, I think it's always a stock-picker's market, it's sector pickers."

"It's growth over value," said Joe.

Pete thundered that it's not just technology that's doing well, look at biotech. Joe said, "That's within technology, Pete ... It's in the Nasdaq."

Kari Firestone's final trade was BSX. Joe said MA, Weiss said AGN, Rich Saperstein said MAS and Pete said PYPL. (This writer is long PYPL.)

[Tuesday, June 19, 2018]

Pete has never thought it’s a stock-picker’s market; he thinks it’s an unusual-options-activity market

Here's a howler.

Pete Najarian was heard to say on Tuesday's Halftime that one thing that's "always true" but not getting "said enough on the network necessarily" is that it's a "stock-picker's market, man."

That's amusing on a couple of levels, because 1) Pete usually doesn't get long a name until he sees the options trading (as a matter of fact, he mentioned that later on Tuesday's show in regard to BA); and 2) Pete usually trumpets how he doesn't even own the common stock of companies he likes but the options instead.

Also, unrelated to Pete, we're under the impression it's not a stock-picker's market, but a "rolling bear market."

Karen found NFLX a short the day the market got all giddy because Brian Roberts was raising his bid (snicker)

Judge on Tuesday's Halftime said Dan Ives' GBH is raising NFLX to 500. (Judge didn't mention that Karen Finerman announced a NFLX short (snicker) last week.) (Karen hasn't been on the 5 p.m. show since to explain this.)

Pete Najarian said NFLX has "so many different levers" including international growth and improving margins. "The multiple is just insane," Pete conceded, but he said there's talk of even North America growth for NFLX.

Joe Terranova said DIS keeps talking about "direct to consumer."

Josh Brown said $500 is a big number, but Ives' call is merely a $39 stock going to $50. Brown said if NFLX listened to 2011 Wall Street concerns about international expansion and profitability, it would be "probably gone by now." (We're not sure what that means, other than Netflix knows what it's doing.)

Joe correctly said the M&A flurry among Time Warner, Fox, Disney and Comcast "has done nothing to impede the growth of Netflix."

Brown correctly stated, "All they're doing is adding a hundred billion dollars in debt, they are smashing properties together in the hopes that they will be able to create content, but the distribution has proven to be the secret sauce."

So often it seems like the stock market’s Road to Utopia goes through NFLX

Pete Najarian struck an optimistic tone at the outset of Tuesday's Halftime, noting people were willing to buy with the Dow down 400. (Of course, people are willing to buy if the Dow were down 10,000; the only time people aren't buying is when markets are closed or stocks are halted.)

Judge said with a straight face of the trade war, "The risk is that the market does begin to take this a little more seriously for a little bit longer."

Judge noted Ed Yardeni mentioned a "zig-zag" market, but, taking a cue from Bob Hope, Judge said, "The problem with that is, zig-zag gets you a road to nowhere."

Josh Brown trumpeted his call of VZ a day ago. "Your portfolio's gotta be a barbell," Brown explained, trumpeting biotech and noting it was recently in one of Joe Terranova's classic terms, "penalty box."

Joe said he doesn't see whatever's happening this week as a "portfolio event" but rather a "trading event."

"I've been buying-buying-buying," Joe said, adding later that "it's still a cyclical market," and we'll get past the noise "in a couple of weeks."

But that seems a bit at odds with what Joe said at the end of the show: "Generally, administrations have one fire hose, and right now, there's multiple fires, domestic and global."

Stephanie Link quibbled with Joe's assessment of Europe and EM slowing; Link said 89% of international markets are seeing PMIs above 50.

Mike Santoli noted the market had been doing well for a couple of weeks and that the rockiness of the last few days "has not cut into muscle yet."

Judge actually suggested with a straight face that there could be "boycotts of the iPhone" in China.

"China needs the iPhone manufacturing revenue very-very-very badly," Josh Brown explained. Judge said, "I get it, but there are risks to that story ev- every day this thing escalates" (snicker).

Pete Najarian said he's not buying BA on the slide because he hasn't seen the options paper.

Josh Brown painted a bleak picture for those sick of trade headlines; "it's never gonna end." But he said the market "eventually" will tune out the noise and stop punishing names like CAT and BA on every one of these headlines.

Stephanie Link said NKE isn't cheap, but she likes it for the 2nd half of the year. She thinks there's more upside now in Under Armour.

Stephanie Link said companies managed through the "macro" and "circus" last quarter "pretty darn well." Josh Brown said, "Last quarter wasn't particularly hard to manage through," citing tax stimulus.

SNAP has never traded in single digits, despite Pete’s call multiple times of a year ago

Judge on Tuesday's Halftime said Cowen dropped its SNAP target from 10 to 9, maintaining underperform.

"Makes sense to me," said Pete Najarian, who added that Evan Spiegel's interview "gave me more of a reason to like Twitter right now."

Josh Brown said the trade since SNAP went public is to be long TWTR and short SNAP. "The seeds of this thing's demise were, were, were planted way before the IPO when he rebuffed Zuckerberg and then published the emails," Brown said.

Pete said SNAP's all-time high occurred in the "first couple of days of trading," a good point.

Josh Brown and Stephanie Link said they both like SQ but like PYPL better. (This writer is long PYPL.)

Wilf Frost said Lloyd Blankfein seems "relatively sanguine" about the China trade war.

Stephanie Link said she's been buying a "laundry list" of stocks including HDS, Alphabet, Under Armour, OXY, AIG.

Link said she bought FCX a day ago, which looks "silly today."

[Monday, June 18, 2018]

Jim visibly frustrated
by INTC’s slide

Sometimes, things intersect beautifully on the Halftime Report.

On Monday, Judge managed to get Jim Lebenthal's dander up by declaring the INTC downgrade to underperform by Gus Richard of Northland (45 target) as the Call of the Day.

Jim said "I completely disagree," and shrugged about praise for MU; "If I see one more report, about DRAM pricing going up or any other sort of chip going up, I think my head's gonna spin." (This writer is long MU.)

Jim said it's a great environment for chips, and Intel is sure to benefit. Judge asked Jim how much INTC is up year to date or 12 months. Jim didn't know, suggesting 20% for the last 12 months. Judge said it's up 14% year to date. Jim asserted, "This is Year 2 of where Microsoft was in its 5-year program. ... The kicker here, the catalyst is MobilEye."

Yes. "Autopilot" is something motorists really like to hear these days.

Joe Terranova questioned if there's more gains to be had in AMD than INTC. Jim said we've heard that "every year for 20 years," and it doesn't happen.

Meanwhile, Judge brought up Brian Wieser's DIS downgrade. Pete Najarian claimed sports gambling was the "trigger" for him to buy DIS (snicker). Judge said you can't assume Disney will make back all those ESPN subscriber losses because of legal gambling. "And I didn't say that," Pete said, claiming ESPN "gets a Band-aid" (snicker).

Jim basically agreed with Wieser, stating the Fox bidding war is the "worst of both worlds" for Disney, because it either overpays or misses out on content it could use.

Jim also said, "I am getting a little fatigued with the Marvel universe. I can't be the only one in the world who's getting fatigued with that." (Jim is 100% correct.)

Finally, Judge welcomed someone who works for Ritholtz Wealth Management, Michael Batnick, to talk about his new book about investing greats that shows "beating the market is extraordinarily difficult." Steve Weiss said he agrees with the approach and wrote a "similar book" a couple years ago.

See, Jim was making the mistake Gordon Gekko (and presumably Batnick's book) warned about; "Have the steak tartar; Louis will make it for ya" "Don't get emotional about stocks; it clouds your judgment." Jim wasn't gushing over the INTC selloff; he was ticked because it's one of his favorite names. He made it his final trade and said you'll regret not buying it and to view the selloff as a "gift."

It seems here like INTC is indeed a fine stock to own, but, as Batnick pointed out, once a person owns a stock, he tends to think it's worth more than someone who doesn't own it thinks it's worth.

FAANG-picker’s market (cont’d)

Ed Yardeni on Monday's Halftime said he's never seen a president who's "this bullish and bearish at the same time."

Yardeni, who has a 3,100 S&P target, said Donald Trump's tariffs are "not a big deal."

Jim Lebenthal seemed to think Ed called this year a "dog" (we didn't hear Ed say that) and said the S&P is up nearly 5% total return year to date, and if we get 10-11% by year-end, we'd call it a "good year."

Josh Brown gave a lengthy description of the XLF chart; we're not really sure what it means.

Joe Terranova admitted, "I'm stuck in Bank of America," but suggested rotating into "some of the regional banks."

Brown said, "Not all financials have been dogs," pointing to credit card companies and "anything related to wealth management."

Steve Weiss said he bought AGN last week and reiterated he sees inflation getting "a lot more aggressive."

Joe said defensives are richer than cyclicals and predicted a "significant unwind."

Josh Brown said he sold DE and KSU because "they are absolutely subject to the vicissitudes of this trade, uh, debate (snicker)."

Brown said he's been buying VZ and SFIX, the latter "may become the Netflix of apparel," but it's "not for the faint of heart."

Pete Najarian said June 58 SBUX calls were active, as were JD June 45 calls expiring Friday.

Josh Brown's final trade was VZ. Weiss said Alphabet and predicted it becomes a leader. Joe said he's buying more TWLO.

Weiss mentions adding to Citi less than 2 minutes into the program

We weren't actually sure if he was touting it, or lamenting it.

Judge opened Monday's Halftime asking whether the market rally can sustain itself. Joe Terranova said, "The rally is still on where it matters," namely tech.

Steve Weiss agreed, and then made this curiously neutral-sounding observation: "I bought some more Citi when it dipped, and guess what, I could buy it now cheaper."

Judge said C is down 17½% since the end of January. "I know it all too well," Weiss said, adding he's not buying more financials now but isn't selling them either.

If you don't want to take it from months' worth of commentary on this page, take it from Jim Cramer, who on Friday claimed, "There are plenty of younger portfolio managers who think the banks are like Sears and J.C. Penney: they're old-line brick-and-mortar stores that are about to lose their relevance thanks to all sorts of new technologies from bitcoin, blockchain, PayPal [and] Square." (This writer is long PYPL.)

Note he said "younger." We're not saying the Halftime Report is full of Grandpa Joneses (snicker), but ... we've never heard anyone on the show say what Cramer said.

Also note that unlike Jim Cramer, this page has never referenced bitcoin or blockchain in making this point, but the completely obvious facts that 1) the really big money is going to Silicon Valley not Wall Street and 2) the Ivy League/etc. talent follows the money and 3) that talent is rapidly reinventing all kinds of sectors including the financial space and 4) the financial space still includes some atrocious fees that are only bound to come down and 5) (if you really wanna lay it on) the traditional banks (think WFC) seem to have to resort to embarrassing bait-and-switch schemes that enrage lawmakers just to show any growth.

So there you go.

Again.

Much more from Monday's Halftime later.

[Friday, June 15, 2018]

Stunner: 2 panelists agree that P.E. ratio means basically nothing

Jim Lebenthal on Friday's Halftime said you can expect FAANG and other leaders to go higher "until there's a reason for it to go lower." Then he said, "This is still a stock-picker's market."

Jim stated, "The trend is your friend." Judge said if the trend's your friend, it's not really a stock-picker's market. "Not in the next 3 weeks, you're exactly right," Jim agreed, but then earnings season. So we're threading the needle again; buy now, stop after 3 weeks, then after X amount of time, jump in again, etc.

Judge noted that Julian Robertson is catching on to us said Thursday what this page has been saying for a while, that most of the leading tech stocks are ridiculously cheap (he didn't explain that it's because everyone's so absurdly afraid of March 2000 Part II that they won't bid up these names to ever reach the point of March 2000 Part II, so while they remain great stocks, expect permanently constrained multiples for absurdly powerful companies, but whatever). Josh Brown said those "are all separate stories" and pointed to different multiples within FAANG. Jim said, "I don't think you said this strongly enough," again noting the different multiples within FAANG.

Erin Browne said the rally in momentum stocks is "likely to continue" and called tech "reasonably valued."

Josh Brown likened AMZN-esque multiples to cable companies of the 1980s, specifically TCI.

Jon Najarian started to talk about DBX (almost like he was Ivy Zelman), then said he doesn't see a reason for the rally to be "thrown off the tracks."

Josh Brown said it's riskier to buy TWTR now than in the teens.

Mike Santoli said this is an "uneven market."

In one of the show's most provocative comments ... EVER ... Erin Browne and Josh Brown agreed that valuation has "no correlation" on returns over 1-3 years.

Somewhere, Ivy Zelman is still talking about the state of the U.S. housing market

(Sigh) Sometimes, we wonder why we even bother with this endeavor.

Judge decided viewers of Friday's Halftime Report were entitled to a couple of speeches from Ivy Zelman; during the 1st, Ivy actually had to stop herself to allow questions, and during the 2nd, we actually exited CNBCfix HQ, only to find upon returning that Ivy was still talking.

Back in the day, Krakower would've been screaming in the host's ear, "Put a cork in it."

Ivy, who is a fine guest, nothing wrong in general, just the length, presumably bought time mentioning "Wolves Bite" (a title, as we pointed out, that doesn't make a whole lot of sense, unfortunately) to Judge right off the bat, "I read it, and I think it's a great book. Good job!"

Ivy basically said housing inventories are at "all-time record lows," millennials are looking to buy homes, and, invoking a cliche no one has ever used in or about the construction industry, "I used to tell the builders, 'If you build it, they will come,' and they're finally doing that."

Ivy called LEN a "great buy here relative to the other large caps."

Judge finally ended this conversation with, "Don't be a stranger."

We can't believe the panel was still awake afterwards when Judge asked for opinions on the homebuilder space, a space that has absolutely never interested this panel. Jon Najarian said he likes HD, HDS and LOW much more than the builders. Erin Browne told Josh Brown that rising rates affect both home-sale volume and home-sale pricing.

Karen stunning at Wharton forum (hopefully, she didn’t have to explain that NFLX short) (sorry, have to say it)

Leslie Picker on Friday's Halftime said Ackman's publicly traded vehicle is up 22% this quarter.

Judge said Bill is "ever confident" that "he's gonna make it back."

Judge's Call of the Day was something about FAANG Morgan Stanley's overweight/160 on UTX (Zzzzzzzz). "I like this call a lot," said Jim Lebenthal. Jon Najarian said the outlook for closing the Rockwell Collins deal was seen as bright a day before this call. Erin Browne said there's a "really strong trend" in capex, but tariffs will "weigh" on industrials.

DE August 150 calls and WPX July 19 calls got Jon Najarian's attention.

Jim's final trade was MYL, Erin said XBI, Doc said FDS and Josh said NOW.

[Thursday, June 14, 2018]

Karen hasn’t been on the 5 p.m. show to discuss her NFLX short, prediction that the valuation would be ‘coming in a little bit’

Here's a friendly media tip.

CNBC's David Faber is still covering dinosaurs, putting himself at risk of becoming one himself.

For example, Faber thinks National Amusements and Comcast and anything to do with John Malone are a big deal.

These are great stories — in 1987. The truth is, these are incredibly boring stories about mostly boring assets; does anyone care in the slightest whether the next time they watch "Wall Street" it's distributed by Comcast or Disney?

Put another way: Does anyone care in the slightest that CNBC is owned by Comcast and not Jeff Immelt? (Sure, we get emails about that subject all the time ...)

The AT&T deal and Comcast offer, soaking themselves in lard, sound a lot more like Gerald Levin buying AOL and a lot less like Mark Zuckerberg buying Instagram or Larry Page buying YouTube, which is the space that Faber should be spending his time on, but whatever.

Nevertheless, Josh Brown on Thursday's Halftime said the media war is "exciting" because we haven't seen such a bidding war in a long time. The guess here is that the Fox "bidding war" turns into the supposed TWX bidding war.

Steve Weiss said the fact CMCSA and DIS are both trading up is a sign of "excess" in the stock market.

Brown contended that DIS needs the Fox content more than CMCSA does. "The 20th Century Fox library is insanely valuable," Brown said.

Brown said DIS doesn't have the content it needs for 2019, so "they gotta make the deal."

FAANG-picker’s market (cont’d)
(a/k/a they really just don’t get it)

Steve Weiss on Thursday's Halftime claimed, "We're overdue for a correction." Jim Lebenthal said we just had one, then said, "you're saying that was the one that was overdue."

Later, Weiss said, "There is froth in the market," but followed, "Where else you gonna put your money?"

Oh boy. Sounds like it's a Stock. Picker's. Market.

Jon Najarian said DISCA has been up for a couple weeks and that the gaming stocks are "on fire."

Jim touted biotech and pharma and called financials "huge pockets of opportunity" (snicker). Jim claimed, "This is an active stock-picker's market."

Jim said he's mostly trimming PFE to get into pharma and biotech. He also called MSG an "absolute hero."

Judge had the audacity to ask, "Are we walking into what could be a midterm election wall?"

"The GDP numbers are going well," said Steve Liesman.

Weiss at one point said that worst-case trade scenarios are "assumed" by the market, and if things on that front improve, you'll get "another leg into the market."

Josh Brown: ROKU
‘looks like TiVo to me’

Judge's Call of the Day on Thursday's Halftime was Macquarie's initiating ROKU as outperform. (This writer is long ROKU.)

Jim Lebenthal, who has touted the name off and on since February despite a purported small position, said, "Echostar is the model here," which frankly made us cringe.

Josh Brown said, "This looks like TiVo to me, where anyone can get into this business and destroy them." That's an interesting point. However, we've heard that said about a lot of companies on this program, and it rarely seems to happen, regardless of what the stocks do.

Jim said that's a "very good point," but "Until I see that, I'm not gonna be worried about it."

"I do think this is going back to 50 easily," Jim asserted.

Doc said he agrees with Jim but agrees with Brown that others can get into the space. Jim said it's a "direct attack" on the cable companies' model.

The thing about ROKU, it enables the opportunity to watch the Antonioni trilogy, which we expected Judge to bring up when Italian bond yields (remember those?) spiked, but it didn't come close to happening. For now, Jim's argument seems to have the upper hand: while TiVo was/is part of the cable model, Roku is about cord-cutting, so if you believe cable companies are the dinosaurs, it's not a bad gambit.

Is Jeffrey predicting a 6% return on his FB short?

Josh Brown opened Thursday's Halftime with an interesting pronouncement about the stock market.

"I never say this, but it's, it's like too good right now," Brown said.

Nevertheless, Brown said you don't have to go all-in, you'll get these "periodic washouts." Possibly, yes, but don't expect to see FB at 150 again.

In what should've been alerted as Breaking News, Judge said he got an email from a "billionaire investor" who is "constructive still" on U.S. stocks.

Even semi-Grandpa Steve Weiss seemed to endorse the rally, stating only a black swan event can derail the market.

Rebecca Patterson slightly played the killjoy, stating she and a group of female investors wonder if inflation won't creep into the trucking industry and later sounding a little iffy about small caps beyond the near term.

Judge said Jeffrey Gundlach sees a 6% 10-year in 3 years. Josh Brown questioned how a 6% 10-year coincides with a 2020 recession.

Steve Liesman told Steve Weiss that what the president is doing regarding tariffs isn't just "negotiating tactics."

Liesman wondered why tariffs against Canada are worse than those against China. Yaneverknow, as Joaquin Andujar used to say; within 12 hours or so, that can always change.

Judge suggested that trade stuff is just "noise," and "The more you worry about it, the more you miss out on the potential opportunities that are in the market."

Weiss tells it like it is, deems cryptocurrency ‘bunch of crap’

We've gotta hand it to Steve Weiss, who on Thursday's Halftime said what the 5 p.m. folks can't/won't say about cryptocurrency: "There's nothin' here. It's a bunch of crap." (Credit also goes to Scott Nations, who is never going to get an invite to the 5 p.m. show.)

Jon Najarian, who had a quiet show, gushed about EA September 190 calls and IWM October 171 calls. Doc admitted MIK "fell out of bed" but said CMCSA October 35 calls look good.

Doc said it looks like RCL made a great deal.

Weiss said he doesn't really follow TLRD, but the quarter report "just didn't seem that bad," and the stock's "worth a look." (He didn't say that by the way, you're gonna like the way you look.)

Jim Lebenthal said QRVO is breaking out.

Josh Brown didn't think Elon Musk's TSLA share buy was a big deal.

Jeff Kilburg said gold might break out to the upside. Scott Nations said it could test 1,350, "but that's a big if."

Rebecca Patterson's final trade was "overweight U.S., overweight tech, it's not done." Doc said Puma (PBYI), Josh Brown said NOW, Weiss said GOOGL, Jim said MYL.

[Wednesday, June 13, 2018]

NFLX soared $16 $30 in 2 days after Karen Finerman announced short

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's Halftime said "I'm positioning more hawkishly" for higher rates and said he's buying RF and adding to BAC.

Sarat Sethi said of the Fed, "They're going to force an inversion of the yield curve," and that's something "emotionally, the market is probably not ready for."

Lisa Shalett said it's curiously "tricky and good" for investors. (Hmmm, let's see ... that probably means it's a "stock-picker's market," but it all depends on "the pace at which rates rise.")

Steve Weiss wondered, "Can there be an earnings surprise because everybody's saying it."

Weiss said Jerome Powell is "not as committed to complete transparency" as Yellen (remember her?) and Bernanke were.

Joe said, "If there was ever a moment when the Fed can overshoot, it is now."

Joe said he agrees with Paul Tudor Jones that trade wars are "more of an irritant" than anything else and that we're "sowing the seeds" for the 3rd and 4th quarter.

A company that goes from having contracts to not having contracts is considered a buy

Guest host Melissa Lee on Wednesday's Halftime said Aegis Capital downgraded YELP to sell.

Sarat Sethi said he owns YELP; "it's actually down 20% from its peak."

In a curious bull call, Sarat said the company made a "fundamental change" to ditch long-term contracts in favor of no contracts and suggested that's the right way to go given that FB and GOOGL don't do it either.

Steve Weiss chuckled, "Since I've been in the business, subscription models have always been worth more," and YELP is doing "basically a ready-access model."

Weiss said GOOGL and FB have "significant moats" that YELP doesn't. Sarat said the YELP users return.

In something of a question that answers itself, Joe asked if YELP should never have been at 101 as it was in 2014. "Exactly," Sarat said, adding people got "very excited."

Mike Mayo says banks have never been this strong; he forgets to say they don’t have the leverage they used to and this is a massive bull market not late 2007 downturn

Richard Fisher on Wednesday's Halftime said the Fed has "incentive or cover" to put "something in their pocket to mitigate a downturn." (Translation: Hikes won't sink the stock market.)

Steve Weiss, who has been trumpeting skyrocketing inflation (snicker) (though not immediately) for weeks, asked Fisher how a trade war might affect that. Fisher said he doesn't like the term "trade war" because he finds it "a bit hyperbolic." He said, however, that it can create inflationary pressures, but trade isn't as big a part of the U.S. economy as it is for, say, Germany, so he doesn't see it dealing a "huge blow for growth."

Eventually they agreed that the "trade war" poses a greater risk to inflation than to the economy (whatever that means).

Fisher dodged Mel's question about whether buying TWX can save T; of course he said he has "enormous confidence in Randall Stephenson and the management team of AT&T."

Weiss said ... drum roll ... "I added to B of A about a week or so ago."

Joe Terranova opined, "CCAR (snicker) needs to be the catalyst for the banks."

Mel complained that she keeps hearing about bank catalysts "again and again."

Lisa Shalett said, "I'm a long-term buyer of financials," even mentioning "blockchain" (snicker), which of course got Mel's attention.

Weiss touted ABC and MCK. Seema Mody, in sizzling new outfit, said Carson Block was taking down TAL.

Did we get through a program without someone recommending TWTR?

Halftime Report guest David Albrycht on Wednesday said he's starting to look at opportunities in local currencies in emerging markets that have had big selloffs.

Albrycht told Joe Terranova he likes bank loans over high yield. Albrycht told Mel that the 10-year through September will be range-bound from 2.75 to 3.25. (That should be fine; the "pace of the increase" shouldn't frighten anyone at those levels.)

Joe said if you're tempted to buy HRB, buy calls, not the stock.

Steve Weiss said he thinks eventually, BSX gets bought. (Remember how the Najarii flagged all the unusual activity?)

Sarat Sethi bluntly stated that "there's a lot more downside" to HSY.

Guest host Mel had to devote the end of the program to Steve Sedgwick's interview with Teresa May. We don't know why he didn't just start with, "Whaddaya think about Donald Trump?"

Sarat's final trade was DISCA. Weiss said BAC, "basically has no risk" (snicker); Joe said PANW and recapped the execs' appearance on Mad Money.

Scott Nations calls
bitcoin ‘absolutely toxic’

To Judge's credit, rarely does the Halftime Report delve into cryptogarbage; it did on Wednesday under the auspices of guest host Melissa Lee, who has refashioned her 5 p.m. show around this subject.

Apparently a professor has found that something called Tether has been used to artificially prop up bitcoin during the past year. Brian Stutland on the Halftime Report's Futures Now scoffed at the research by "some professor who probably hasn't traded any significant amount of money, making some claims." Nevertheless, Stutland said bitcoin probably trends to 6,000.

Scott Nations on the other hand called bitcoin "absolutely toxic" and defended Professor Griffin. Nations said the fact bitcoin was down only 3% is a "victory."

Much more from Wednesday's Halftime later.

[Tuesday, June 12, 2018]

Josh Brown’s steady TWTR drumbeat suddenly gaining ground on Joe’s TWLO for Call of the Year

Judge's Call of the Day on Tuesday's Halftime was JPM's 50 on TWTR.

Stephanie Link said "the investments are starting to pay off" and that 75% of sell-sides have either holds or sells on the name.

"Very much reminds me of the early days of Facebook," Link said, though "I don't think it's as nearly as good a business model as Facebook." (But other than that, very reminiscent.)

Doc had to explain his history of buying FB around 150 (and somehow crediting Judge for being the only other person on the panel who found it a buy at that level) and how it would've been even better to be buying TWTR, at least in the last few weeks.

Joe Terranova said the "fundamental turn" for TWTR was 2 quarters ago. "There's plenty of room in this stock if you look at it on a chart," Joe said.

Pete Najarian called it "very easily" a $50 stock.

Stephanie for some reason clashed with Judge over Judge's simple question as to what happens to TWTR stock if Dorsey were to leave.

Once again, Doc demonstrated faulty memory about things that have been said on the program, telling Judge that Steve Ballmer got out of TWTR "right around 29, Judge, something like that." Actually, on May 1, Ballmer said, "I sold at a good time. Verrrrrry good time. I sold right near the high. Uh, recent high. 33, 34, 35, right in there." At least Doc didn't credit a PYPL bear with a "tough" bullish call.

It’s a stock-picker’s market:
Try FAANG

Judge opened Tuesday's Halftime with commentary from Paul Tudor Jones, who thinks stocks could get "crazy," particularly after the election.

But Judge pointed out that Jones also mentioned 1987 (ding-ding-ding) and 1999 (ding-ding-ding) (the only question is, where's 2008?). Judge said Jones thinks things could get "really exuberant ... and then all bets might be off after that."

OK. So we've got another thread-the-needle call.

Jon Najarian said there could be "nervousness into the election." (Yes. Many folks have been seen stocking up food and non-perishables in the cellar.)

Judge harped on Jones' comment, "Who cares about a hundred basis points." Stephanie Link stressed that it's about rates going up for the right reason. (Why not just play a clip of someone on the show saying that sentence and save everyone the trouble of coming in?) (#argumentforweeklyprogram)

Stephanie said stocks look attractive, but, "It's a stock-picker's market." (Translation: Add to Citi. #ohjoy)

Joe Terranova said he's known Jones "for the better part of 25 years." He said Jones is looking for a blowoff 4th quarter and won't rush in until the 3rd quarter.

Joe pointed out how much better U.S. markets are than other markets.

But Joe noted Paul used the term "crazy," and "that concerns me."

Pete Najarian again mentioned going from 40% cash to 12% cash.

Joe and Pete chuckled that Jones apparently twice referred to the stock market like Arnold Schwarzenegger being "roided out."

Stephanie said a recession "is more like a 2020 event" than 2019.

Judge mentioned 1987 and 1999 for the second time.

Steve Liesman said that in the CNBC Fed survey, economists agree with Jones but "don't see crazy."

Liesman alternated between saying there's always a 20% chance of a recession and that he doesn't really see one on the horizon.

Judge said he likes hearing from Jones because he's so rarely heard from. Maybe that's because some of his biological opinions haven't gone over so well, including remarks that were taken up in 2013 by Karen Finerman and Michelle Caruso-Cabrera (and others) in a discussion that is still readable on our home page; when Karen said (a bunch of times) "I just could not believe he said it," and MCC said, "I think Paul Tudor Jones said out loud what we all know to be anecdotally true ... And I think Karen, you are awesome, but you are the exception I think that proves the rule. Let's face it: How many other women are on 'Fast Money.' I mean when you look at the breakdown of people- when you look at the breakdown of people who are on CNBC. It's a guys-and-ties network. I mean let's not kid anybody!"

Pete incredibly nails it; TSLA indeed was about 285 on day of Elon’s conference call

Pete Najarian on Tuesday's Halftime hailed Oprah Winfrey as the ultimate activist investor in WTW; he thinks there is still upside in the name.

Jon Najarian said he was in RH calls, and they just exploded, though he didn't get all of the gain.

Joe Terranova said he added to ABT and ABBV and HON.

Stephanie Link touted HDS and said defense names looked oversold Tuesday.

Joe said he doesn't agree with RTN's slide and said he'd look at NOC.

Dom Chu reported on TSLA's surge; Judge wondered what the stock was trading at during Elon's notorious conference call. Joe predicted the stock is going to revisit "last September's highs."

MRK August 62.50 calls and NRG June 34.50 calls and FSLR August 60 calls were popular.

Stephanie likes FDX and is sticking with it.

Anthony Grisanti said he thinks rates are going higher. Jim Iuorio predicted the 10-year goes back to 3.11%.

Pete insisted "the fundamental story" is still there in DIS.

Pete's final trade was LLY. Stephanie Link said PYPL and said she'd even buy EBAY too. Pete gushed about PYPL and said he's in the stock not options. (This writer is long PYPL.) Doc said EA. Joe said he'll get into PANW (one of his favorite names to occasionally mention) by the end of the day and made BKE his final trade.

On the 5 p.m. show, which was intertwined with Kelly Evans' Closing Bell to tackle the AT&T-Time Warner ruling, Karen Finerman said the decision is "almost existential" for T. Rich Greenfield said Comcast is going to go on a shopping spree. For her final trade, Karen actually said to short NETFLIX, though with a very tight stop.

[Monday, June 11, 2018]

Jim off the hook on ROKU

Pete Najarian is so excited about the stock market, he's gone from 40% cash to 12%.

Also at the opening of Monday's Halftime, Josh Brown said the U.S. economy's "on fire."

Joe Terranova trumpeted MNST and CMG and pronounced Chipotle correctly.

Jon Najarian was unfazed by the G-7. "There was nothing going on there that was interesting ... to the markets," he said, calling it "just a nothin'."

Jim Lebenthal claimed, "There are plenty of value names out there; you can look all across the financial space."

Pete said with the VIX so low, you can get protection. Karen Finerman on the 5 p.m. show said the VIX "seems very mispriced" with "all this stuff going on."

Meanwhile, the Halftime panel noted that Andrew Left is suddenly going long on dogs including SNAP and now FIT. (A little earlier, it was ROKU, though we hesitate to call that one a dog.) (This writer is long ROKU.)

Judge's Call of the Day was BMO's bull call on COP. Pete seems to think XOM has "far more upside." Joe said, "The Street continues to reward ConocoPhillips" but struggled twice to say "presence." Josh Brown said COP is "not overbought yet at all" and faces only mild resistance at 72. Jim again trumpeted Royal Dutch, "because of the dividend."

Judge and Pete couldn't get squared on whether XOM's been up 2% in a month or a week or 7% in a month.

Doc said he's been trading APA. Joe said nat gas is unchanged on the year.

Joe said "everyone should give consideration to" CHK.

August 29 HAIN calls were unusual, as were AAPL July 215 calls. Doc said there had been unusual options activity in BSX 3 times in the last month; moments later, the show got breaking news on a BSX-SYK halt.

Josh Brown said STX is apparently in a hot area of IT spending.

Jim said EA is the "800-pound gorilla" in the gaming space. "It seems unstoppable," Jim said.

Pete said the problem with LUV is the problem for all airlines, rising energy costs.

Pete said "up towards 90," it'd be time to trim TGT.

Pete's final trade was FCX. Doc said BGCP. Josh Brown said NOW. Jim said of ROKU, "I think it's going to 50," which is what he said in February when it plunged to 42 and then instead of going to 50 went to 30, but it's back to 42 now, so we'll give Jim the benefit of the doubt. (This writer is long ROKU.) Joe said TWLO and dared the shorts to jump in.

Judge said the symbol for a North Korea ETF could be "NUKE."

[Friday, June 8, 2018]

Hate to say it,
but Doc 100% wrong

Take a look at the two pictures above.

One is from May 2017; the other from March 2018.

Both involved the presence of the 2017 Ira Sohn champ, a collegian who was deemed winner of some kind of "best trade" contest by suggesting long EBAY (traded 33 then) ... against a short PYPL (traded 49 then).

In both of the pictures, the bloke asserted that PYPL is a short, running headlong into correct resistance from Jim Cramer. Note that Jon Najarian is apparently paying attention in each picture.

On Friday, Judge's Call of the Day was Wedbush pinning a $100 on PYPL and calling it one of its "best ideas." (This writer is long PYPL.)

Doc was on the show and said, "The kid at Sohn, remember that Judge, the young man at Sohn that, that won it last year, won it with this call. With this call on PayPal. And it was, yeah, it was a tough call to make when he made it, and then when it just zoomed ... he deserves credit."

Seriously ... ?

This "young man" called PYPL a short, a call of absolute buffoonery ... and then re-suggested it as a short in March.

And Doc thinks the kid made a "tough call" to be long?

Judge (who was not shown on camera during this announcement) apparently, based on the dialogue heard on TV, was nodding along with what Najarian said.

Is this for real, Judge?

Oddly enough, in general, Jon Najarian otherwise has demonstrated a virtually spectacular recall and attention to detail, easily handling unscheduled queries about research notes, news reports, etc., that surface during conversation.

Doc just said the equivalent of "Say Judge, remember when Greg Norman won the '96 Masters?"

As you can tell from the pictures above, often the panelists are checking computers or perhaps listening to producers in their ear (witness Joe Terranova and Stephanie Link above) while others are talking. We get that not every panelist may correctly recall everything on the show. But this episode makes one wonder if the folks running the program have any clue what's going on.

We don't even mention the young bloke's name because we decided everyone is entitled to mistakes around age 21.

When those mistakes get trumpeted as great triumphs, well, someone's gotta tell people that 1) what they hear on TV might not always be true and that 2) the folks at Ira Sohn, supposedly some of the best investors in the world ... may have trouble determining a great investment from a horrible investment.

We're here because you are. Talking stocks. Reviewing television. Tellin' it like it is. 100% free. No ads. You want us on that wall. You need us on that wall.

Jim: ‘I can’t tell you how many value investors are buying’ PYPL

Taking up the PYPL upgrade on Friday's Halftime, Josh Brown said it went "absolutely ballistic into year-end," only to achieve an RSI of "80-something" in January. (This writer is long PYPL.)

"Now it's giving indications that it's gonna break out above that top end of the range," Brown said. "If the stock takes out 86, no reason why it couldn't go to 100 bucks."

Brown said PayPal is supported by "sector-wide action."

Jon Najarian said he's happy to be long both PYPL and SQ. Sarat Sethi said at 36 times earnings, he's not adding PYPL shares; "it's like a Microsoft to me."

Jim Lebenthal said that while he gets Sarat's point, "I can't tell you how many value investors are buying this stock ... It's called mission creep."

Kari Firestone told Judge, "We've owned it for over 2 years now."

Jim’s math: Where 50 million
is ‘pretty close’ to 75 million

Judge on Friday's Halftime took up MSFT and, in an interesting question, pitted it against AAPL.

Sarat Sethi said he loves MSFT, but after a spree of gains, "too large a position, I take some money off."

Josh Brown said "the trend is pristine" in MSFT. Brown called the turnaround in the name "miraculous." (Actually, it sounds less like a miracle and more like an end to a decade of embarrassing underperformance.)

Judge recalled, "I remember sitting down with, with Ballmer for an interview on this network where he mocked the iPhone."

"He missed social," Brown said.

"They were late to the party with Internet Explorer even," chimed in Jon Najarian.

Doc said without hesitation that MSFT has more "percentage" upside than AAPL in the next 1-2 years. Jim Lebenthal said Apple.

Later in the show, Jim got a chance to explain. Jim said AAPL is "much cheaper" than MSFT and has the services business.

Jim may well be right — it's an interesting question, but an even more interesting question would be AAPL vs. FB, given that they trade around the same price at the moment.

Jim said Apple's music subscriptions, "buried in the news," were reported at 50 million, "and that's pretty close to Spotify, the leader at 75 million."

Maybe not ‘thoughtful,’ but ‘successful’: AMZN/NFLX portfolio already up 66% in 2018

Jim Lebenthal said at the top of Friday's Halftime that you don't have to have "100% technology" in your portfolio and called financials a "coiled spring" (snicker).

In a more interesting observation, Jim also talked up pharma and biotech, which he said has "pretty much been left for dead. ... In fact I actually picked up shares in Allergan this week."

Josh Brown said other non-tech sectors can be bought; "retail did 6% this week." Brown trumpeted "compelling opportunities" in REITs, such as STOR; "Warren Buffett has a limit-up position here."

Judge introduced Kari Firestone remotely as arguing for a "pause" in the risk-on trade. "Well I actually wrote that 3 days ago," Firestone said. "No no, kidding."

Then, in yet another example of a panelist or guest attempting to thread a short-term stock market needle, Firestone said she could see the market moving to an 18 multiple, then rates move up, "and we get less excited."

Kari claimed, "You have to be careful, you have to be selective," and mentioned FB.

Finally catching on to the bigger picture, Judge said, "I'm wondering though how, how selective maybe one has to be," citing Buffett-Dimon's "6th inning" comments.

Kari claimed that "they were talking about a game that's going into extra innings." Judge said, "They didn't say extra innings. They said we're in the 6th inning." Kari argued, "They don't know that there might be extra innings."

Kari curiously said, "Just buying Amazon and Netflix is not I would say thoughtful investing."

OK. Whatever. Add to Citi instead of FAANG.

What is the point of a hockey hat, anyway; why didn’t someone hand Judge a vintage Capitals game-worn jersey?

Barely more than a week ago, after Italian bonds went haywire, we thought Judge on his program might take up the Antonioni trilogy. Judge didn't come remotely close to doing so.

On Friday's Halftime, Judge observed of Donald Trump, "The bark can be worse than the, uh, eventual bite."

Jim Lebenthal said that for markets, "The big prize here is China and getting some sort of settlement."

Jon Najarian said there was activity in August 45 DHI calls.

Jim Lebenthal's final trade was WGO, citing the rally with THO on bad tariff news. Josh Brown said TWTR. Sarat Sethi said KSU. Doc backed THO but said he loves SLCA.

[Thursday, June 7, 2018]

Sounds like Warren was writing specifically in regard to IBM and its $20-a-share-by-2015 plan

Thursday's sleepy Halftime Report started off with a rehash of the Warren Buffett-Jamie Dimon interview and included a curious weather forecast from gorjus Liz Ann Sonders.

Liz Ann said, "Late cycle I think is, is there more in, in time than it is in temperature. ... The distance in time is much larger than, uh, kinda the heat from a temperature standpoint."

Hmmmm ... we think she's saying that the market is extended in terms of time but not in terms of return.

Liz Ann said there's "nowhere near the kind of euphoria that you'd expect to see."

Josh Brown pointed out that when we actually are in the 9th inning, "You won't know it until 6 months later."

Joe Terranova said the U.S. consumer and U.S. corporations are the 3rd and 4th hitters in the lineup. (Who's leadoff? The Kardashians?)

Joe said it would be great if Warren Buffett would make his stop-giving-guidance suggestion to AAPL. Judge didn't know what Joe meant. "Did he say he spoke directly to Tim Cook?" Joe explained. "We don't know what he's had- or what conversations he's had with Tim Cook or not. But I mean, the op-ed sort of speaks for itself," Judge claimed.

Josh Brown said quarterly guidance was invented by Jack Welch in the 1990s.

Doc said the 2nd part of the op-ed, about how the decline of the number of public companies stifles innovation, is bogus.

We find the whole thing curious, given that issuing guidance has no bearing on what the numbers are going to be and that one of the authors of this op-ed likes to talk about the weighing machine vs. voting machine thing. It seems like about the only accomplishment of guidance is to help out analysts, which probably doesn't hurt when it comes time to issue upgrades or downgrades.

Pete’s seen this movie before but still likes MGM calls

Judge's Call of the Day on Thursday's Halftime was the MCD upgrade.

Josh Brown said "there might be a good opportunity here," though he thinks Thursday's move was "pent up."

Joe Terranova suggested it looks like "it's beginning to break out."

Pete Najarian said January 32 calls in MGM were popular. He said MGM options have been hitting repeatedly recently but admitted, "They haven't been right yet."

Jon Najarian said July 65 SQ calls were popular, though people were selling the 70s.

Josh Brown said he thinks SHAK can continue an "incredible run ... as long as they don't blow it."

Joe got a name he has occasionally mentioned (but not for a while), SJM, explaining it's not just a sector problem; "this is really a fundamental story that has taken Smucker down. ... I don't wanna buy it just yet."

Pete said Brent Saunders at AGN is "feelin' a little bit of heat" from Carl Icahn and Dave Tepper.

Doc said that if bad news can't push down THO, "I think it's time to buy."

Doc said there's a rumor that STX is pricing a secondary at 56.50.

Joe said the EWZ is a reminder that in emerging markets, "You're not investing in specific countries." Doc said Brazil is "just a nightmare."

Pete's final trade was PII. Doc said SQ. Josh Brown said INTC. Joe said HON could be breaking out.

[Wednesday, June 6, 2018]

How come Judge isn’t reminding us that it’s really a ‘rolling bear market’

While getting bogged down (again) in a banks-rates conversational quagmire, Wednesday's Halftime Report crew once again missed the forest through the trees.

That would be the ridiculous 6-month surge in certain retailers that appears not even remotely sustainable.

In December, out of nowhere, it became a great trade. This page missed it; so did the show's panelists. Now, those trades are in euphoria-land.

Note: This page does not at all want department stores or malls to shrink or go away. Quite the contrary. The sad truth is that the space is massively challenged, not just by online shopping but people's lack of interest in suits and more formal clothing.

A couple weeks ago, panelists and hosts were openly questioning why The Gap even exists.

What are many of these names going to do, start raising the dividends?

So, many of these stocks appear to be eventual shorts. Probably not right now, but likely by Black Friday if not before. (This writer is not short any stocks.)

The subject surfaced Wednesday when Judge said the Call of the Day was the M downgrade by Atlantic Equities, which actually raised its price target from 36 to 39 (snicker).

Pete Najarian called it a "very intelligent downgrade," then gushed about how great TGT is. Pete also touted NKE and BKE (snicker).

Josh Brown said there were "a lot of people that were forced to cover" in M, pointing out it's a "long way" from the all-time high.

Brown correctly said it's been a "great trade," but do people want to be invested long-term in Macy's? Judge incredibly said "Maybe," stating Jim Cramer is "more sold" on that story.

Steve Weiss said M's multiple is in line with historical norms.

Weiss suggested, "Maybe the worst is over for now" for brick-and-mortar retailers in terms of "optimum damage from online," which we highly doubt.

Joe Terranova explained that a popular debt trade "going into '17" was to look at high-yield retail names, buy the debt and short the equity, and now there's an unwind of that trade.

Joe mentioned "improval" (sic) in apparel, such as LULU, PVH, URBN.

Erin Browne said foot traffic's increasing and gross margins are increasing in retail. Josh Brown said it's a "rising tide."

Pete thundered that Judge "scoffed" at him for flagging an "insider" buy in Under Armour.

Jimmy Pethokoukis on Power Lunch was asked about Larry Kudlow’s press conference: ‘I didn’t understand it, to be honest with you ... really a Peter Navarro message that I thought that, uh, Larry gave’

Mike Santoli on Wednesday's Halftime contended, "I do think you have to be concerned about this idea that some kind of dollar-funding stress at this point in the cycle makes a lot of sense."

OK. Sure. Got it.

Josh Brown questioned "where is the supply," telling Santoli that "stock is being subtracted from this market" and suggesting it might be years before there's "too much" stock in the market.

Santoli said he agrees that's the "typical cadence."

Steve Weiss took issue with Brown's assertion, stating it's a "flawed premise" that the markets "always hit the skids because you've got too much supply."

Brown said that really is the issue.

Weiss then outlined instances where he said stocks sold off because of reasons beyond supply, including in 2007 there being "too much credit, too easy credit" and tech stocks in 2000 not being able to fulfill the expectations.

Panelists having none of Judge’s decision to bring up Ray Dalio

Judge on Wednesday's Halftime tried to say something about Ray Dalio, only to be verbally trampled by Steve Weiss and Josh Brown.

Weiss and Brown stated that Dalio's been negative for 3 years. Judge said Dalio is warning about 2019. Weiss said that rising rates in Europe "is a risk that he identifies."

Brown shrugged that in 2015, "Ray Dalio was talking about 'the big risk is 1937,' he's talking about a double-dip depression (snicker)."

Meanwhile, Joe Terranova said the "condition of the consumer is telling you rates need to go back above 3%." Joe said he owns and bought more WTFC Wednesday.

Brown said there's "more pessimism than optimism," pointing to the sluggish 30-year.

Weiss said, "There are technical aspects keeping the 30-year where it is."

Weiss said the risk to the market is after S&P 3,000, the "synchronized global tightening."

Erin Browne said S&P 3,000 is a "reasonable case" but "certainly not the best case."

Pete Najarian said the market can "absolutely" deal with 3%; "it's how we get there."

Weiss said, "To think that inflation's not going to reappear and reappear aggressively is lunacy. But we're not seeing it in the numbers yet."

Nevertheless, "I actually think tech's gonna continue to surprise to the upside," Weiss said, touting DATA, MSFT, ADBE.

Josh Brown said there's been "unbelievable performance in anything to do with the consumer."

Brown said the XHB is in a "rounding bottom" after finding support.

Doc had great call (for a day at least) in touting NKTR Tuesday

Judge on Wednesday's Halftime welcomed Bob Pisani, with Thomas Peterffy at the Sandler O'Neill conference.

Peterffy said he turned bearish 2 days ago after being bullish since election night in November 2016. The reason is that he sees a "powerful part of the country is uh trying to do whatever they can to unseat Trump."

There are some bear calls we might take seriously. That is not one of them.

Joe Terranova said he has owned IBKR for a while; it's come down recently because of lack of volatility. He said it had "excellent, excellent" risk management in February; "I like that."

Pete Najarian said HLT October 87.50 calls were getting bought. Steve Weiss said he bought EXPE back last week.

Brian Stutland said traders are looking for a "bottoming area" in ... wheat (Zzzzzz). He called it "a nice little bull trend." Scott Nations said the move is "largely technical."

Josh Brown said DAL is giving you an opportunity to buy on bad news. Joe said AMBA is a "falling knife" and "not the next Nvidia." Steve Weiss said VRX still has a "massive debt load" and got a "courageous upgrade," but he's not buying. Pete said "I love what I'm seeing" in CI. Erin Browne is still not a buyer of utilities.

Erin Browne's final trade was EEM based on recent outflows; "it's really been a dollar play." Josh said, "Erin's right." Josh's final trade was SCHW. Weiss said MU and IUSG. Pete said ETFC. Joe said MNST and vowed to buy SCHW.

Pete said the most interesting
thing ...

Right near the top of Wednesday's Halftime, Pete Najarian uncorked this curious comment that Judge quite frankly missed.

Pete complained that over the last month, JPM and the 10-year are "the exact same chart."

Now isn't that interesting.

Banks are merely proxies for rising rates.

Stephen Weiss basically confirmed this notion, reaffirming, "I bought some more Citi ... when the 10-year collapsed, hoping that would bounce. I added to it; I'm still looking for an exit on those because they're not the companies they used to be, but right now, I think that's a good trade."

Surely if the trade is simply rising rates, panelists could find other vehicles with 1) less risk and 2) more beta than bank stocks?

This sounds a lot less like greatness among banks than ... the ol' rising tide trade.

Judge didn't bring up any of that, however, taking a called Strike 3 on this subject instead.

Much more on Wednesday's Halftime later.

[Tuesday, June 5, 2018]

Joe actually credits European regulators for fueling surge in tech stocks

Josh Brown opened Tuesday's Halftime talking about how tech is doing great, but what really makes him feel good is that the Russell is breaking out too.

"Technology clearly is the story," said Joe Terranova, who said Goldman Sachs "put out a great report" questioning if tech is in a "bubble." Apparently, after citing IBM in the '70s and XOM a while back, the conclusion was no, as Joe said "there's plenty of room to grow."

In what is clearly not a shocker, Stephanie Link stated, "Growth is leading value, like every day," which provided an alley-oop to Grandpa Kevin O'Leary.

"Everything reverts to the mean," said O'Leary, "so when you see stretching like this going on, you know the outcome is just a matter of around the corner."

We'll take the other side of that. Judge still doesn't get it, and neither do the panelists and guests, who for some ludicrous reasons keep trying to thread the needle on a seemingly weekly basis, "Buy tech now/buy banks next week/buy Europe next month," etc.

Rather, everyone's so afraid of owning tech if/when March 2000 happens again that they're ensuring there isn't another March 2000, meaning several names are astoundingly UNDERvalued, including at least 3 of the 5 FAANG; it's not that they're hot stocks, it's that they've already got practically all the money in the world and no end in sight to the growth.

What the panelists should be skeptical of is RETAIL, which is enjoying a ridiculous dead-cat bounce despite the fact we'll be hearing about more store closings everywhere in 3 months; nevertheless Joe picked KSS for his final trade (Karen on 5 p.m. show said she wouldn't chase it).

Jon Najarian said tech "happens to be in the sweetest spot it could be in right now." But Joe pointed out that the S&P is still below its high while tech is on fire.

Mike Santoli said one reason so many people like technology is because they can find "hair" virtually everywhere else in the market. Santoli said the "truly cheap" stocks these days are "ugly stuff" that looks like it's getting killed by tech. Actually, FB and AAPL and GOOGL are absurdly cheap and not at all ugly. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Joe suggested it was Europe, of all places, that didn't order Zuck under house arrest when he set foot in Brussels gave the tech sector a "free pass" after the Cambridge Analytica flap (what Donald Trump and Facebook have to do with Berlin, we have no idea). "I would argue the EU really let Facebook off rather easily," Joe said.

Pete Najarian just last Thursday said he'll get back into FB on the next selloff; "Somebody'll come up with some crazy thing, and the stock's gonna get hammered once again," Pete said that day, and perhaps Tuesday night's NYT story will do the trick. (This review was posted overnight Tuesday-Wednesday.)

O'Leary trumpeted his new ETF of "global Internet giants." Judge said one of the top 10 holdings is SNAP (snicker).

Mel opened the 5 p.m. show with the theme "Party like it's 1999?"

Karen Finerman, striking in blue, actually predicted a rotation from FAANG into banks including C (snicker). (See? That's what we're talking about regarding the thread-the-needle thing.)

OK. Be like Weiss. Add to Citi. Enjoy. Thread the needle on weekly stock market rotations. Skip FAANG. #missoutoneasyandobviousmoney

Tony Dwyer hiked his S&P target to 3,200.

Quiet overachiever: Sarah Huckabee Sanders working in Chauncey Gardner situation, holding her own

Joe Terranova on Tuesday's Halftime said SBUX probably has a "pretty significant" executive premium that might be about to shrink.

"He already had to come back to rescue it," said Josh Brown, who said that if you must own this stock, support has been 50-51 for 3 years; "that's where your stop goes."

But, "I don't wanna be long it," Brown said.

Jon Najarian said Howard Schultz helped restore the "experience" of visiting a Starbucks, and, "I worry that some of what they've done recently might not let you enjoy that experience quite as much."

Kevin O'Leary said SBUX should split its China operations into a separate stock, the only constructive thing O'Leary said all day.

"If they announce they're gonna split, you buy," Stephanie Link said.

O'Leary suggested that Schultz might "taint his stock if he gets into that game" of politics.

"That speech he gave today with Sorkin was a platform for middle of the road Democratic election (sic grammar)," O'Leary explained.

When was the last time an NFL owner practiced activist investing?

Leslie Picker on Tuesday's Halftime reported on Dave Tepper's gripes about AGN.

Stephanie Link said CCL is not expensive, but there's not a lot of "confidence" as to what earnings will be. Link prefers the gaming companies. Josh Brown said the CCL "chart is awful."

Jon Najarian said IWM calls were popular, as were MIK 20 calls. Jeff Kilburg told Jackie D he thinks crude will move higher. Anthony Grisanti agrees. David Stockman was going to be on Futures Now. Wonder what he might say.

Stephanie Link's final trade was FCX. Joe Terranova said KSS while gushing about M, claiming the "apocalypse" is behind us. (There's your Party Like It's 1999 concern.) Kevin O'Leary actually said MAT. Doc said NKTR but said to do it with options. Josh Brown said TWTR.

[Monday, June 4, 2018]

Toni on April 26 (draft day) was talking about how AAPL numbers have to come down, stock was $163

Taking a jab at Mr. No. 1 something-or-other, Jim Cramer on Monday's Halftime said Toni Sacconaghi is "no more faux bull" on AAPL. (However, we don't really know what that means.)

Cramer complained that his wife inadvertently threw his iPhone in the washing machine; "it was the first fight I've had with her in 13 years."

Judge said Apple's services division alone would be No. 85 on the Fortune 500. Joe Terranova gushed about how Apple's customer retention "remains in the 90s."

Pete Najarian said sometimes Judge pokes fun at him for referencing Katy Huberty "too much." Pete trumpeted wearables (Zzzzzzzz).

Did the NYT story address Jana/CALSTRS’ concerns about Apple’s risk to child users? They left a number for Tim Cook to call

Joe Terranova on Monday's Halftime contended that everyone on the show "stayed confident" in technology "when others wanted to rotate elsewhere."

Well, he's basically correct on some level, especially if you count Mike Wilson's hideous market call of last week (just hig PgDn a few times) that included liking Europe but not for 2 months, etc.

Pete Najarian pointed out that Wilson, whom he didn't mention by name but by firm and said "analyst" (sic instead of "strategist"), was on the show last week (picture above from Friday), "and tech was not in his 2nd-half-of-the-year-side of what would really drive the markets (sic grammar)."

Jon Najarian said he's overweight tech "big time" and singled out MSFT.

Jim Cramer called this a "stealth rally" and even mentioned AMD.

Pointing out something we were beginning to think would never happen, Joe Terranova said, "Even a name like Alphabet is beginning to rally." (This writer is long GOOGL.)

"I do think you have to be selective," said Stephanie Link, adding she bought Alphabet.

But Judge questioned, "I wonder though how selective you really have to be." (Hint: Buy FAANG. Don't add to Citi every 2 weeks. Make considerably more money.)

Link mentioned DXC and PYPL (this writer is long PYPL).

Judge pointed out the Nasdaq eclipsed its all-time high. No one said anything about a "rolling bear market" (snicker).

Jim Cramer jabbed people who "bought GE instead of Netflix." Well, we know at least one person who visited with the Halftime Report a couple times in the last 10 months or so who probably fits that "Bill" (that's a hint).

Joe Terranova said it seems as if FB has gotten past its European regulatory concerns. Jim Cramer mocked Monday's NYT story on Facebook, especially that it was the "lead" story.

Not sure why anyone would force themselves to hold a stock for 15 years (Gee, this RIMM sure looks good)

Stephanie Link on Monday's Halftime Report said she has started a "very small position" in Under Armour, gushing about the new management team under Kevin Plank.

"Now they have the right people," Link explained, as well as new products.

Jim Cramer recalled an anecdote about Plank at the Super Bowl and stated, "I have never seen him this focused."

Meanwhile, Stephanie Link doesn't doubt the U.S. is strong but questions the idea of unloading Europe. "To sell Europe now? ... I just don't think you wanna sell Europe at this juncture," Link said.

She said there are "pockets" you can buy, though European financials face a "struggle."

Joe Terranova asked why he'd buy a European bank when he can get better banks in the U.S. (This writer is long DB.) Jon Najarian said you can nibble in Europe, but he's not doing that for clients.

Doc said USO 14 calls and FANG 120 June calls were popular. Pete Najarian said June 39 calls in EBAY that expire Friday were getting scooped up.

Meg Tirrell spoke in Chicago with LOXO chief Dr. Josh Bilenker, whose company is "the toast of ASCO" for the 2nd year in a row.

Jim Cramer touted REGN and said AMGN is his No. 2.

The discussion reminded us of Friday, when Jon Najarian happened to say, "Nektar continues to have great volume in the stock and options."

"The stock is a monster," said Josh Brown that day.

"True," Doc said.

On Monday, Doc noted NKTR's disaster and trumpeted IMMU. Stephanie Link said she doesn't own any biotech now. Jim Cramer also touted JNJ.

Judge asked Cramer which stocks he'd own for 15 years. Jim said JNJ and DIS. "'Cause they're not expensive."

Doc's final trade was CRTO. Stephanie said WYNN. Joe Terranova sold out of PANW, long one of his favorite names to mention, and said to be on the sidelines with this one.

[Friday, June 1, 2018]

Well, whaddaya know:
Weiss added to Citi!!

Judge actually said at the beginning of Friday's Halftime that the economy is in "almost a perfect scenario" for stocks.

Josh Brown admitted "it's very very tough to find negatives" and said "it's safe to say" that the jobs report indicates nothing long term has changed.

Newcomer Lindsey Bell said she expects the good times to continue, up to a 3,000 S&P target.

Jon Najarian said we're in an "amazing recovery" that's not over.

Rob Sechan said, "Today, there's no doubt that fundamentals is winning." Judge said, "It's like fundamentals vs. noise in some respects."

The lone curmudgeon was Steve Weiss, who said he's "selectively" a buyer of stocks. (As opposed to all those times when he just throws darts at a board.)

Weiss said "it's a little bit troubling" that "everybody's singing from the same hymn book."

"I think we're definitely in a range," Weiss contended.

Then, a comment we haven't heard in at least a couple weeks, which is the high end of the range: "I bought some more Citi today," Weiss said, but if it takes off, he'd be inclined to sell because "now it's more of a trade."

Jim Lebenthal said that when the China flare-up happened, "You knew that it's gonna take at least 3 meetings for some resolution to come through." He's looking to see "some progress" from Wilbur Ross.

Josh Brown said the FTSE MIB measuring Italy was down only 0.5% on the week. Brown also noted FB was up 20% from the recent lows.

"Often times things we care about on a Monday are hilarious by Friday," Brown asserted.

Rob Sechan said (for the 5,000th time anyone on CNBC has said this) that "it's the pace of change" that matters with rates.

Weiss told Sechan that this is the "same exact (sic redundant) setup" as 3 months ago heading into earnings, so why will the market surge now. "Sustainability is what I'd say," Sechan said. But Judge suggested "buybacks," and Josh Brown agreed with Judge.

Lindsey Bell said we "usually see some volatility" into a midterm election year.

Bell told Josh Brown that the all the good tech news isn't in the tech stocks.

A year ago in March, Ross Levinsohn said SNAP being $160 a share in 12 months wouldn’t surprise him

We wouldn't have expected this one to cause a fracas, but Judge on Friday's Halftime asked if rising rates will put the clamps on emerging markets.

"It's different this time," Rob Sechan said.

"It's not different this time," Steve Weiss said.

Josh Brown shrugged that "someone will blow up; Latin America might blow up."

Weiss explained, "Here's why I don't invest in the emerging markets: Because I've seen too many people go to sleep at night up 10, 15%, and they wake up, and they're broke, OK, because something happened overnight."

Wow. That's quite a reversal.

"It's about right-sizing the investment, Steve," Sechan insisted.

"You know how many people uh that used to be in- investors are driving Ubers now because they said, 'It's always different,'" Weiss scoffed.

Judge, who didn't have the brass a day earlier to tell Mike "Rolling Bear Market" Wilson to stuff it, asked whether the U.S. market or EM would outperform over the next 2 years.

Josh Brown said, "I think you need to own both."

Judge said, "That's a copout. JUST TELL ME WHAT OUTPERFORMS!"

Brown claimed his statement is "the best thing that investors will hear on this network today."

Weiss said it's "such a joke" to use the term "price to book" in regard to EM.

Brown asked Weiss what's GE's price to book. Weiss said he doesn't own GE and told Brown he does "bottoms-up work" and doesn't buy based on charts.

"You were trading Snapchat on bottom-up volume?" Brown said.

"I've never owned Snapchat," Weiss said.

We recalled Weiss talking up SNAP months ago. He did say in December it had a "similar chart" to TWTR, but we don't have any indication he actually owned the name.

Jim said it's a "tautological truth" that EM is higher beta, and, "If the S&P 500 is going up over the next 2 years, EM is going up probably 1.3 times."

Josh says TWTR is about ‘who the users are ... how meaningful the content they make’

Judge's Call of the Day on Friday's Halftime was MKM raising TWTR's price target to 43, the highest on the Street.

Josh Brown said it's "adorable" to see analysts who were neutral or negative on the stock in the teens now liking it. Brown said SQ's success got people to give Jack Dorsey some props. Brown also claimed FB has turned off some publishers who might be taking a 2nd look at TWTR (snicker).

Jon Najarian said "it's amazing, the volume of institutional interest in the stock now." Doc pointed out when Steve Ballmer was on the show and "famously said, I'm out."

Brown said, "I think what the market is starting to think differently about, and advertisers too, is that sometimes it's not how many people um, are, are frequent users, it's who the users are, how influential they are, how meaningful the content they make."

Steve Weiss said he likes TWTR better since he "unfollowed everybody except the news sources."

Wonder if Gross made back all 3% in a day

Meg Tirrell on Friday's Halftime previewed ASCO. Steve Weiss said it's a great space if you know what you're doing, and if not, you can still buy a basket; "it's sorta my EM play."

Josh Brown said, "You will definitely get beta here." Jon Najarian touted NKTR.

Jim Lebenthal said, "Don't go all in today or Monday." Jim said to fill out positions over the summer, because in each election season, summer is where "the vitriol gets the highest and the stocks get beaten down."

Doc said someone bought TRIP January 60 calls and someone bought NWL January 23 calls. Doc said VMW and XLNX calls both paid off on Friday.

Weiss said LULU is one of his regrets. "It's a phenomenal company," but, "I think it's kind of expensive here."

Jim said if COST's margin issues happened to any other retailer, "the stock would be down a heckuva lot more."

Josh Brown said PBR has been "a train wreck for a decade."

Doc said he likes the rebound in WDAY from the morning low, but he's not involved.

Rob Sechan's final trade was XLF. Doc said KORS. Weiss said MU; "look, the company's buying back 20% of the stock." Josh Brown said something about EM; we're not sure how bullish it was, and neither was Judge. Jim said EA; "it's breaking out."

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