[CNBCfix Fast Money Review Archive — September 2021]
Al Michaels in a few seconds poses a better question than Judge has offered in months
The star guest of Thursday's (9/30) Halftime Report had to be Al Michaels ... unless it was Lee Cooperman.
More on the former in a moment. Cooperman, who was on the show partly to discuss his very large and generous donation to a New Jersey hospital, spent much of his time discussing with Judge how Lee is "very, very concerned about this relentless attack of (sic meant 'on') the wealthy."
And he's got a point. Judge, for example, claimed at one point during the conversation that "polls" show the American people favor "by a wide margin" having the "ultrawealthy" pay higher taxes. Perhaps Judge can list some of these polls in the CNBC.com disclosures?
"I have no problem with that," Lee said, before adding, "The man on the street has no idea what the marginal tax rate is on wealthy people." (What Lee could've said is that such "polls" could easily be manipulated by the usage of a few terms, and by the general notion, as Lee indicated, that everyone wants something for nothing.)
Lee said he's all for the rich paying higher taxes (actually, even Bill Maher says they already do), but he thinks politicians should be "eliminating loopholes" rather than "coming up with new taxes."
Lee also started to bash "AOC and her squad," but Judge insisted "I don't wanna get into that."
Judge also evidently doesn't want to get into why the U.S. economy supposedly needs to spend $3.5 trillion of our great-grandkids' money to do more road construction than we're doing already, but Lee went there, stating, "Biden isn't saying or doing smart things," one of those acccording to Lee being discouraging U.S. energy production while asking Saudi Arabia to boost it up.
Lee at one point said, "I love Thomas Sowell"; Judge didn't touch that one.
After that, it was time for Al Michaels, who said Judge had a "tremendous interview" with Lee Cooperman.
Michaels made a guest appearance to promote this week's Sunday Night Football matchup featuring Tampa Bay at New England. "I can't think of a more anticipated game," Michaels said (which may be a stretch), predicting an "extremely good" reception for Tom Brady.
Despite limited time, Al asked the panelists (at that point it was down to Josh Brown and Pete Najarian) a curious but great question: "It's 34,000 on the Dow right now, I need to know on December 31st, give me the over/under on the Dow."
Now, the first thing we thought was, over/under is basically a median, in other words, a number that half the bettors think will be topped and half the bettors think will not be reached.
We think Michaels was simply asking for a Dow year-end target, not a median betting line set by Tobias Levkovich/Savita Subramanian/Tom Lee.
Josh seemed to think Michaels was asking for whether year-end Dow is higher or lower than today's. "I say higher," Brown said.
"I need a number, come on, Josh," Michaels predicted.
Brown predicted ending the year on a record high; "the consumer has too much money."
Pete said "36,000 Al, that's where we're goin'."
And we wondered why Judge hasn't asked his panelists these simple questions.
Fish gives nat gas range of $6 or $12 (a/k/a if Mike Mayo were asked about oil prices, he’d say JPM and MS are buys)
Judge's star guest on Wednesday's (9/29) Halftime Report was energy-trading ace Mark Fisher, who hasn't been on for a while.
Judge started with nat gas. Fish said he doesn't think November will go "off the board" cheaper than October's 5.85. Fish said if there's an "early cold winter" and American traders "freak out" like those in Asia and Europe, it would push the price well past $6 and maybe even to $12.
Judge suggested the $12 was a "worst case" scenario and demanded to know Fish's "base case." Fish said it depends on how much cold weather we get early in the season, and if there isn't much, then $6.50 may be the tops.
Fish said the "black swan to everything" in the oil market is if the "temporary supply issue" ends up lasting 2, 3, 4, 5 years. Fish said people have been "spoiled" by cheap energy prices.
Fisher suggested that the transition from fossil fuels won't take just 5 years but more like "15 to 20 years." This page isn't even sure that the 20 is correct.
Judge credited Fish for recommending RRC and SWN back in late January. "I got lucky," Fish shrugged.
Meanwhile, Steve Weiss opened the show saying he covered his S&P short and his SMH short, the latter he called "a poor cover." He said he also covered his MU short.
But, Weiss says he's "reinforced" in his market cautiousness because of the pre-announcements. (That's called searching for info to back a philosophy.)
"I don't think we've seen the end of the 10-year yield going higher," Weiss said, predicting 1.60 in "relatively short order."
He reaffirmed he thinks retail is "tired" of buying the dips.
"This is a great environment to be selling calls," said Bryn Talkington.
Mike Mayo also appeared on the show, so you know what that means. Mayo claimed a 2% 10-year is "in play."
Judge said that Elizabeth Warren's comment about Jerome Powell being a "dangerous man" was "obviously over the top."
Weiss annihilated by Jim
in market-outlook debate
Tuesday's (9/28) stock market meltdown, just like the one a week earlier on Monday, didn't scare anyone on the Halftime Report, except Steve Weiss, who insisted his pessimistic outlook is not related to Tuesday's selling.
Now shorting the S&P 500, Weiss claimed his view of the market (no positive catalysts) has been "pretty consistent" (even though all he's doing is trading the last 15 minutes of the tape).
Weiss asserted that retail investors have "stopped buying the dips" (snicker) (yeah, right).
Jim Lebenthal, who's in zero cash, chuckled that Weiss is "absolutely wrong." One of the reasons, Jim said, is that "Delta has peaked in the U.S.," and Jim thinks now's the time to buy "slaughtered" sectors such as airlines, casinos, hotels. (This writer is long some airline and casino stocks.)
"This is not a time to hunker down," Jim said. "The economy is in very strong shape."
Jim and Judge talked over themselves about debt ceiling situations. Jim insisted they always get resolved. Judge said he doesn't think the D.C. standoff is having any effect on the market.
Jim told Judge that the rise in interest rates isn't "that fast." Pete Najarian took issue with that, stating, "I think this is a big velocity move." Then Weiss piled in, stating, "It's not about where rates are ... it's where they're going."
Jim questioned why Weiss was "giving in" to the "hysteria" of a bad day. Weiss called that a "mischaracterization."
Tom Lee said his rally call is "really being put to the test today." Lee said turmoil in D.C. has "almost always been a great buying opportunity," and he's standing by the call of seeing "everything rally into year-end."
Weiss insisted he's not overreacting to Tuesday's activity nor is he basing his view just on rates; "it's an amalgamation (snicker) of events that I think remove the positive catalysts."
"By the way, now Elizabeth Warren called Powell into question," Weiss added. Judge and Steve Liesman played a clip of Warren calling Powell a "dangerous man" (snicker).
Wonder if we’re gonna get any kind of update on The Board Challenge at Delivering Alpha
To his credit — one of his many credits — CNBC's Steve Liesman often does a great job of dousing those folks who foam at the mouth over how low interest rates are.
So it was a bit of a surprise on Monday's (9/27) Halftime Report to hear Steve tell Judge, "The economy should have higher rates given that it is normalizing."
Are extremely low, or negative, interest rates a little scary?
Yes.
But, as always, this page will stick with the notion that rates are merely an effect of something, and not a cause ... and that maybe folks should be grateful that they're as high as they are, that perhaps — we have no idea, we're not economists — today's "normalized" world actually merits negative rates, and any artificiality may be to the upside.
Anyway. Judge said he doesn't remember the last time AMZN got a price-target cut. But Jon Najarian said it's something you'd "expect" to see given oil and wage pressures and the shipping backup (he said it's 9 days) at Long Beach.
Joe Terranova hung a $20 "in the near term" on SOFI.
Joe argued that "oil could go to 90, and energy equities don't perform concurrent with that."
Joe said he is "ringing the register" on CRWD because he thinks "longer-duration assex (sic) (snicker)" are going to roll over or are "going the other way." Joe also touted AXP and made a gushing case for LULU. (This writer is long LULU.)
Anastasia Amoroso took part in the first half of the program. In the latter half, Jon Najarian called her "Amorosa" (sic no first name, wrong vowel).
Doc curiously said that Judge is "a huge fan of horse racing."
At least Weiss didn’t blame Monday’s selloff on Goldman employees returning to the office
Time to catch up with a few curious comments on CNBC this week (and no, we're not talking about Judge's "mid-cycle" debate with the guy who's always making the contrarian call every 3 weeks and yet is always right) ...
Bob Pisani said Thursday (9/23) on The Exchange, "The one thing totally ingrained in a stock trader's mental Rolodex (snicker) is the historic killer of all bull markets is a sudden move by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. That is very well studied for a hundred years. So traders are fearful of any sudden move by the Federal Reserve."
Really.
Stock traders actually believe that it was a "sudden move" by the Federal Reserve that sank the market in March 2020?
Late 2007? March 2000? October 1987?
And how many "sudden" Fed moves of the past dozen years have prompted those "fearful" traders to unload perfectly good stocks for no reason?
"Historic killer" ... "Very well studied" ... (What and where, exactly, are these studies?)
Gee whiz.
(Um that's effect mistaken as cause, Bob.)
Meanwhile, Steve Weiss on Wednesday's Halftime opined, "Labor I believe is gonna loosen up now that we're done with the summer."
That's basically no different than all those people for the last dozen years insisting this is finally the time that bond yields rise.
We're guessing the labor market isn't much different in 6 months — or 12 months — than it is now.
On Thursday's Halftime, Sarat Sethi said he's taking profits in BX, only for this reason: "It is now too big a part of some of our portfolios."
We always get a chuckle out of that. (Yeah, we know, there's supposedly some statistical portfolio theory about risk management, etc.)
We totally understand subtracting/adding a stock based on an opinion that the stock is going lower/higher.
We don't understand subtracting/adding a stock based on the amount of other shares in the portfolio. (Tip: BX shares don't care how much FedEx Sarat owns.)
Pete Najarian, evidently thinking about suiting up for another game, on Thursday talked about "that uniform move to the downside followed by this uniform move to the upside."
Evergrande sounds like Greek austerity of 2011 (a/k/a Monday’s Wall Street gift)
Judge booked so many guests for Monday's (9/20) Halftime Report, he basically left himself and his panel no time to talk about the cratering stock market.
And any viewer could tell by the panelists' reactions that basically people think the market that was down 900 on Monday might easily be up 900 on Tuesday and that whatever dip occurs will be bought like there's no tomorrow (see Rick Rieder, a few grafs below).
Nevertheless, Steve Weiss, who got first dibs, did sort of an I-told-you-so-routine about China, and Joe Terranova predicted the market will get "a little bit stormy" in coming days.
Pete Najarian mentioned all the strategists who have called for a pullback. "If it's a pullback, this is just the beginning," Pete said, a statement that means absolutely nothing.
Jim Chanos was the first star guest. Judge at one commercial break said Rick Rieder would be up next in a "can't-miss" interview, which was described as this: "What all of this means for the global markets from his perspective." (Who else's perspective would Rieder be talking about? Dennis Gartman's?)
Rieder, who said "Listen" about 500 times, suggested you could buy a bit on the market selloff; he also tossed in an "at the end of the day."
"There's no doubt in my mind that equities are going higher," Rieder stated.
Andrew Left made a good joke, suggesting that the only way to save Evergrande is for him to "go out and short the equity."
On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, we wondered if Karen Finerman would offer her usual "I was hoping to see some stocks I like trading down in integers but this is hardly any pullback"; instead, Karen noted "a big rally, actually, into the close" and that this will all be a "blip."
Jim suggests wealthy Chinese are buying American collectibles
The "collectibles" market has gone parabolic for more than a year while Judge has stood at the plate with the bat on his shoulder.
Oddly enough, Judge has even previously revealed to Internet outfits that he has a "pretty decent" sports memorabilia collection.
The Halftime Report could easily devote an hour to this subject, but all we've heard from Judge is some offhand comment in 2020 about memorabilia prices.
Thankfully, on Thursday's (9/16) Halftime guest-hosted by Frank Holland, Bob Pisani, whose fantastic concert-poster collection is often seen in remote-era CNBC programs, took the bull by the horns.
"Collectibles are just on fire this year," Pisani told Holland. "Somebody just paid $3.6 million for the first Spider-Man comic. Nobody has ever come close to that kind of number before."
Frank even revealed, "Bob you're taking the words right out of my mouth. I'm a big comic book collector myself. I have the X-Men comic book that the 'Days of Future Past' is based on. I'm holding on to it because it's just been appreciating and appreciating."
Josh Brown, who has scoffed at interest in sports memorabilia recently, added, perhaps seriously, "It's very likely that by the end of this year, CNBC is going to have a ticker of the top 10 NFTs scrolling under the screen during Squawk Box at 8 o'clock in the morning."
Well, Bob and Frank are absolutely correct. Memorabilia — we could call it "collectibles," but a "collectible" sounds more like the card you get in each box of Twinkies and not a $3 million comic book — has quite frankly gone through the roof since the pandemic began (and was already robust prior to that).
That Judge should've been telling viewers in 2016 to buy Batman #1 or a 1952 Topps Mantle is undeniable. As a matter of fact, depending on the condition, a 52 Mantle might cost the same right now as a Bitcoin.
Yet while CNBC entertains hundreds of Bitcoin conversations a year, when was the last time you heard anyone suggesting a Cracker Jack Joe Jackson?
The only time we can recall Judge delving into this subject was January 2017, when Marc Lasry sat in with the panel (that's when they actually filled a table at Englewood Cliffs) and Judge noted that Lasry sold Wonder Woman #1 for a $261,000 profit (the sale price was $291,100; we don't recall when Lasry made the purchase, if that was even disclosed).
Whether high-end collectibles/memorabilia constitute an "investing class" is surely debatable. However, it's not debatable that people (including Bob Pisani and Frank Holland and Judge and probably many other CNBC anchor/hosts) are buying these things, and some people are buying them like hand sanitizer in March 2020, either to put them on their walls/shelves or stick them in a safe until it's time to sell.
Most people in general would probably find it far more exciting to own one of the earliest Superman comics than a Bitcoin. But some panelists on Thursday shrugged.
"I think Bob Pisani's comment about the Spider-Man comic is illustrative of something," offered Jim Lebenthal. "You have to ask yourself, Who's buying that, and for what purpose. Whoever bought it, I don't know who it is, but I doubt that they're actually going to read it (snicker). I think it goes in a safe somewhere as a store of value. And why would they do that? I mean look at the second-largest economy in the world, China, and what they're doing to their wealthy, uh, citizens. They're confiscating their wealth. So people are looking for places to store wealth that maybe isn't as traceable as stocks, bonds. ... I don't know who it is, but I suspect money is flowing out of China."
Well, that's hardly a new theory, although 15 years ago, it was supposedly the Russian oligarchs buying up Western artworks.
Nevertheless, we're wondering if Jim actually thinks that other people think that someone is buying a comic book for $3 million just so they can read the comic book.
Frank told Jim he made "a fair point" and explained, "I think a lot of people are buying collectibles and other things, really to hold onto them; a lot of times you see those things stay in the box."
Josh on Friday tried to convince Jenny that P.E. ratio is not a catalyst for stocks
On Thursday's (9/16) Halftime Report, Josh Brown claimed, "There are a bunch of warning signs piling up in the market right now for that marketwide correction that we've all been saying we're hoping for or we expect or whatever."
Brown said "stealth correction" 3 or 4 times and added that the "fireworks" in the financial world are happening "away from the markets," such as crypto, startups.
Jon Najarian talked up IRNT; the stock moved up a couple dollars after he started discussing it.
On the subject of LVS and WYNN, Doc said "China has just been doing a circular firing squad on a number of industries." (This writer is long LVS.)
Jim Lebenthal said when he bought WYNN, he thought the China news was priced in; "clearly I was wrong." But he's sticking with it.
Guest host Frank Holland referred to "Dubravos (sic) Lakos."
Joe Terranova said if you already own CMG, don't sell it.
Josh Brown mentioned Dutch Bros. and said people who have gone there in the Pacific Northwest say "it's gonna invade the rest of the country like locusts."
In the gaming space, Doc referred to the "circular firing squad" against BILI and NTES; he called EA, TTWO and ATVI "much safer."
Given what we heard on the Halftime Report last week, it sounds like no one attended SALT but Ray Dalio.
Weiss is obsessed with Goldman employees going back to the office, ignoring that Judge’s panelists every day are in their living rooms and talking over each other with satellite delays
Judge opened Wednesday's (9/15) Halftime Report telling Joe Terranova that it "feels like there generally is a malaise over the market."
Steve Weiss, who did by far the most talking during this episode, said he doesn't see "positive catalysts" in the stock market near-term. Weiss claimed "there's less investor interest" in the market ... simply because summer's over and Goldman Sachs employees have returned to the office.
Weiss said he's "over 20%" in cash right now. (#correctiontimer) (#exceptthere'salreadysupposedlya"rollingcorrection")
Weiss stated, "All the action is below the markets," referring to the beta of AAPL and AMZN and MSFT, and he tried making a point of some kind about whether you can make money if the averages are down, a point so clumsy that Judge eventually said, "You're agreeing with something that you just disagreed with."
Judge in the 15th minute mentioned "rolling corection." Weiss in the 16th minute mentioned "rolling correction."
Judge introduced Dubravko Lakos as the "headliner" of the day, as Lakos upped his S&P year-end target to 4,700. "It's a small upgrade," Lakos said.
"No need to get negative here," Lakos said, though claiming "the easy money's been made" and that there's not a "huge amount of upside" left.
Weiss did his daily capitalism-is-over-in-China routine. Judge referred to Joe Terranova's provocative comment a day earlier (see below) that casinos are "dinosaurs." But Judge claimed, "We don't have time to get back into it now." But he didn't have time to get into it a day earlier either. But it's worth mentioning 2 days in a row. Just not worth getting into (when Ray Dalio is making Paul Tudor Jones inflation-trade-like comments), apparently.
Judge said he wonders "if people are too quick to wanna write the Delta wave off."
Anthony says Ray Dalio really does believe Bitcoin has intrinsic value
On Wednesday's (9/15) Halftime Report, Judge and Anthony Scaramucci explained how Dr. Scott Gottlieb handled the safety arrangements of the NYC SALT Conference. (Most gatherings don't receive that kind of high-level expertise.)
"We're gonna have to live with COVID," Scaramucci concluded.
Anthony compared Bitcoin regulation to attempts to "knock Uber out of business," but "the people won."
Judge said that on Bitcoin, Ray Dalio made "maybe the most damning comments that I've heard recently."
Judge suggested the most damning part of Dalio's comment was that Bitcoin doesn't have "intrinsic value." Scaramucci said Dalio "knows" it has intrinsic value "because he went and bought it," and so "we're slicing and dicing."
Joe: Casino giants are
‘dinosaurs in the desert’
CNBC programs often include intelligent conversations about the future of certain industries in a rapidly encroaching digital world.
One sector rarely if ever brought up in that context is casinos, so we credit Joe Terranova for raising the issue — with an impressively strong opinion — on Tuesday's (9/14) Halftime Report.
Judge had been asking panelists whether they'd buy WYNN or LVS or perhaps other casino stocks in the wake of Tuesday's meltdown. (This writer is long LVS.)
Joe said, "I don't care if it's Macau or Las Vegas, these are dinosaurs in the desert ... I don't like casinos right here because you've got generations coming that they don't wanna gamble in a casino. Gen-Z and millennials, they're not going there. Older generations are where the customer base was and unfortunately, that's gonna die out."
Well, this page will disagree. For one reason, this is a heavily regulated industry everywhere with considerable moat. For another, Joe didn't explain whether he has seen believable data on this subject or is simply forming an opinion based on offhand comments and observations. For another, it's true that casino sportsbooks are probably at risk of gamblers simply opening accounts via DraftKings or other services (this writer is long DKNG), but for now, most of those services are tethered to partnerships, so that at least in some states, DraftKings functions like Ticketmaster. And another reason — you can't sit at a table and play blackjack or poker on your phone.
Nevertheless, Joe opened the door to what should've been an excellent debate that Judge apparently didn't have more time for.
Judge had previously asked Jim Lebenthal to dial in to assess his purchase of WYNN last week. Jim, who basically tried giving himself a pep talk during his entire dialogue, said that to not know the risks of casino giants, you'd have to be in "outer space," and he's buying more.
"Reward does not come without taking risk," Jim concluded.
Jim said the "daily back and forth" in the stock market between reopening and defensive "has to resolve itself."
In other news, Pete Najarian said he wasn't expecting anything "earth-shattering" from the Apple event. Moments later, Pete and Judge went around in circles about whether AAPL could really have a big pullback and whether it could sink all of FAANG, etc.
Degas Wright actually mentioned the "debt-ceiling debate (snicker)" (the only debate is whether our great-grandkids or great-great-grandkids are paying for this).
Pete said that in Week 1 of the NFL, "You don't wanna overjudge things" (snicker) (You might if you're the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers or Chicago Bears).
Jeremy Siegel, whose market calls can change by the week, said he thinks stocks are in the "8th inning before a correction."
How much ‘pessimistim’
is there in the market?
(a/k/a Goldman’s Jim Currie)
In a fairly sleepy Halftime Report on Monday (9/13), Bryn Talkington suggested that the longer the market goes without a big correction, the more likely it becomes (that's called Mean Reversion Instead Of Skating To Where The Puck's Going); Bryn said the biggest peak-to-trough decline in 2017 "was only about 3 and a half percent," but then 2018 was volatile.
Pete Najarian offered, "I think we continue to have a healthy rotation."
In the 6th minute, Steve Weiss said the market has had "rolling corrections for the last year."
Judge said Tom Lee says "there's just too much pessimistim (sic pronunciation)- pessimism, excuse me, in the marketplace." Weiss said Lee has been saying "for 6 months" that COVID cases are "going in the right direction."
Weiss said offices are reopening despite COVID; "the market's come to the conclusion that it just doesn't matter."
Judge claimed, "The market hasn't factored in higher taxes at all, I- I don't think." Weiss said the market doesn't think steep tax hikes are actually going to happen, but Judge claimed that Congress could get "something through" (snicker). Weiss said that would be a "buy on the news."
Judge said Jeff Currie made a "big call" on $80 oil for Q4 and that oil would lead commodities higher. Bryn Talkington then said "Jim (sic) Currie" is a "wonderful" analyst.
Al Michaels calls Halftime Report ‘greatest show on television’
Thursday's (9/9) Halftime Report started off with a curious debate about the airlines. (This writer is long AAL, UAL and SAVE.)
Josh Brown said he doesn't own airlines but contended, "Nobody is expecting a resurgence in business travel" and that the only surprise could be to the upside.
Jon Najarian said he'd have to "completely disagree" and that "absolutely" there is downside risk to business travel because "virtually every big firm that we're talking to" is saying its business travel will be down.
"That's my point," Brown said, which is correct.
Steve Weiss chimed in to say (the same thing he always says about airlines) that even "in the best of times," airlines are only trades, and right now, their balance sheets "are completely upside down," the same argument he was making a year ago when the stocks were about half of what they are now.
Weiss further said reopening names are a "waste of cash" because you can make more money "elsewhere."
Judge did an "oh by the way" at the 8-minute mark and then again at the 15-minute mark. Obviously his new favorite expression. (What about an "at the end of the day"?)
Judge asked the panel whether it makes sense to buy anything besides big cap tech. Weiss said Judge "put it perfectly" and then actually said with a straight face, "There's no room in my portfolio for speculative positions anymore."
Judge said Savita Subramanian says the rally "might not end now ... but it could end badly, uh, eventually." That's quite a forecast.
Even more curious was Josh Brown actually declaring, "The average viewer of this TV show right now ... has a huge advantage over the professional investor." Predicting Weiss would roll his eyes, Brown explained that it's OK if you buy a good stock that pulls back, you don't have to "answer" to a bunch of people. (Eric Bolling used to call that the "tap on the shoulder.")
Julia Boorstin cut in to the show with a "News Alert" (snicker) on Ray Ban smartglasses that has something to do with FB. (This writer is long FB.)
Bryn Talkington said "I love the Q's" and that she owns ARK and MTUM. Then she said, "I do think that the big risk in the market longer term is a policy misstep."
Talkington made the case for COIN.
Steve Weiss said he bought PENN to take advantage of NFL betting season and thinks it has "much more" upside than DKNG. (This writer is long DKNG.)
The star guest was not Rick Rieder or Jonathan Krinsky sportscasting legend Al Michaels, who told Judge, "This is my favorite interview of the year. I love you guys. It's the greatest show on television."
Michaels talked up KKR, a favorite of his from a year ago.
But Judge allowed Al a chance to delve into his favorite stock market subject, the "ETFs on steroids," which Al said have been "fantastic" to own, including the SSO. (He used to talk about the FAS.)
Brown told Michaels, "Al, you've been right," but Brown still insisted "from a process standpoint," these ETFs carry a lot more risk in a "choppy" or "flat" or "down" market "than a lot of investors are aware of."
Adam Parker says he agrees with something he just said (a/k/a Welcome Back, Judge)
Well, it was a little underwhelming.
Judge returned to the Halftime Report helm on Wednesday (9/8) after a considerable break and opened by saying, "Seems like we're asking the very same questions we were asking before I actually (sic redundant) left."
Jim Lebenthal agreed that nothing has changed in the 2-3-4-5-6 weeks since Judge's vacation, "It's like you never left."
Jim said FAANG has been crushing it the last couple weeks, but reopening trades haven't, so the latter is the opportunity.
But later on, Jim conceded, "If Delta doesn't peak later this month, I'm in trouble."
Adam Parker, the star guest, insisted to Judge there's "no nuance" to his statement to Judge that he "generally" remains bullish. Parker said he tries to "sorta stick to the big picture" and that "it's not useful to try to make 2- or 3-week cautious calls," even though that's exactly what one member of Wednesday's panel was doing.
Parker then gave an analogy of walking a dog around Central Park and discovering where you are.
Parker said he agrees with Jim's take on the reopening trade. Parker said "quality reopening plays" have massively lagged the "work from home junk" since the start of the pandemic.
Judge asked to clarify if ZM and PTON are the "stay at home junk" that Parker was referring to. Parker twice said "I agree," prompting Judge to have to declare that Judge isn't the one calling those stocks "junk," only clarifying that Parker is calling them junk. (Otherwise, that could get really messy in the show's "disclosures.") (This writer is long ZM.)
Meanwhile, obviously not subscribing to Parker's theory that 2-3-week cautious calls aren't "useful," Jenny Harrington insisted the long term will inevitably be better, but in the short term, she's skewing toward "a bit more negativity."
Also unlike Parker, Joe Terranova said he disagrees with Jim; Joe thinks the reopening trade will continue "to be priced out."
Judge reported that Savita Subramanian raised her S&P target to 4,250 (snicker).
8 minutes into the show, Judge did an "oh by the way."
Judge did another "oh by the way" at the 21-minute mark and mentioned "punch bowl" (snicker) and "taxes may be going up (Zzzzzz)."
At the 17th minute, Jon Najarian, who had a quiet show, said someone bought nearly 20,000 S&P calls just "minutes ago."
Judge needs to bring back Brad Gerstner
It was just about a year ago — Sept. 9, 2020, to be exact — that Judge welcomed Brad Gerstner to the Halftime Report to discuss The Board Challenge, an initiative by Gerstner and a few others to, according to its press release, prompt "a pledge for U.S. corporate boards of directors to add a Black director within the next year."
CNBC hardly had a scoop that date. The Board Challenge issued a press release on that day about the launch of its effort to secure corporate pledges for board diversity. Business media (besides this page) (in other words, folks who get paid to rewrite these press releases into news stories) picked up the story, including the magazine Fast Company, which noted the 17 companies pledging to add a Black director to their boards within a year.
We tried looking up these companies' boards online to see if, in fact, they all had African American members. Those companies that are publicly traded appear to have done so. Some of the ones that are privately held ... we couldn't find evidence of this happening. Many of these 17 companies appear to be Silicon Valley plays still in venture-capital land in which angel investors would appear to have far more clout than any board members. We found that some of these non-public companies, despite our vigorous searching, do not list board members on their websites (at least where anyone could find them) other than board chairmen. We would list those companies here, except this page cannot say with certainty that indeed, a year has passed without this company meeting its board pledge. The goal here is not to embarrass anyone but report a story. Maybe these additions have happened without press releases or website updates. Or maybe not. One of these 17 companies appears to have just 3 board members, 2 of them added last November.
Gerstner's last visit on the Halftime Report was April 13, to talk about Grab, his apparently-still-in-progress SPAC investment. Grab is not listed on The Board Challenge website. Neither is Snowflake, which Gerstner talked up on Sept. 16, 2020, just a week after his appearance touting the launch of The Board Challenge.
Judge on Sept. 16 (photo above) told Gerstner that it doesn't appear that SNOW has any African American board members. Gerstner told Judge, "I'm glad you're calling me out about it."
We'll see if Judge is still doing just that.
Haven’t heard much lately about Paul Tudor Jones and the inflation trade (a/k/a if there were more Kabul airport trouble, we’d be getting a fresh batch of $1,400 checks)
Shortly into Thursday's (9/2) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal offered an assessment of the U.S. government that frankly sounds a little farfetched.
Guest host Sully had noted banks are the worst-performing sector this week. Jim said that doesn't change his mind on liking the stocks.
"In the last 18 months, you've had so much fiscal stimulus that it's basically the government has refinanced consumers' credit card debt," Jim explained.
But then Jim added, "Well, that game's over."
Is it?
We highly doubt it.
(Translation: As long as there's 0.1% unemployment, expect a check from Joe Biden.)
Meanwhile, at one point, Sully brought up the success of REITs. Josh Brown correctly noted he has been talking about the space all year.
But — and this was indeed great advice that people don't often think about — Brown pointed out taxation rules for REITs and advised people "try to buy these things in tax-deferred accounts if possible."
Degas Wright said NVR has tied CEO compensation to investor return, which is why he likes it long term over other builders.
Sully uncorked a pop culture reference that we think is tied to the doghouse episode. "Even Bobby Brady moved out of the house at one point. I think," Sully said.
Sully opened the show by asking Josh Brown about buying the "enabler" of the electric vehicle revolution, CHPT. Brown said he didn't catch the bottom but is happy with the buy regardless. However, Brown doesn't want anyone to "blindly" follow him in.
Pete Najarian said he bought calls in WKHS and BLNK but stressed "these are option trades that we're talkin' about." (Yes. And we bet all the options buying now is short term in nature.)
Sully fails to ask panelists Tiffany’s great question: Do any of them have a Robinhood account?
On Thursday's (9/2) Halftime Report, Tiffany McGhee said she likes SQ, PYPL and HOOD (this writer is long HOOD). McGhee questioned whether the show's panelists even have a Robinhood account and realize "how easy it is to buy a stock" on the platform.
No one answered that one.
Tiffany said she bought NOW and CRWD.
Well into the show, Sully brought up DOCU. (This writer is long DOCU.) We wondered what Pete "sky-high multiple or NO multiple" Najarian would say, given that Pete and Jenny Harrington and sometimes Steve Weiss bashed this stock in the winter and early spring when it traded below $200. (That's called #wrongwaymomentumtrading.) (#Guessit'snottheCienaof2000asJennyclaims.) Eventually, Sully got around to asking Pete about it. Pete actually claimed that of the stay-at-home stars, "Docusign is the one that I think does make the most sense." Moments later, he added, "It's a great company and I think that's gonna be with us forever." (BUT WHAT ABOUT THE HIGH P.E. OR NO P.E., PETE?)
(Jenny also said on July 1 that she can "guarantee" that stock market performance for the rest of the year "won't be a straight line." Where are all the zigzags?)
Josh Brown said the future is bright for platforms such as DOCU but that the comps are going to be tough.
Brown stressed that the small cap space totals about $3 trillion and isn't a great "signal" of where the broad market is heading.
Pete actually admitted that KMI is "sorta boring."
Jim Lebenthal endorsed NXPI. Degas said he'd "definitely" hold PWR. Tiffany McGhee said if she were long SHOP, she'd hold it and would buy it on a dip.
Josh Brown said of UBER, "the stock's doing OK" (it's not) and "the best is yet to come." (This writer is long UBER.) Brown also mentioned buying "really cheap stock" of UBER during the pandemic in 2020, so he's doing OK "on an average cost basis." (Tip to viewers: Stocks don't go up or down based on panelists' cost basis.)
On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Melissa Lee said the word "robustness."
NFLX — equally popular among ‘momentum’ investors and ‘value’ investors
As the Halftime Report (and other CNBC shows) limps into the end of summer, guest host Sully (who's getting more than his share of hours) opened Wednesday's (9/1) show asking Joe Terranova to explain his NFLX buy, the recent favorite of noted "value" investor Bill Nygren.
Joe gushed about the NFLX chart and said the pattern he's recognizing is focusing "specifically on momentum," and it's not just because the stock is going up, but because of "the velocity of the move that's occurring here over the last 14 days."
Joe hung a 600-ish number on the stock. At the end of the show, he got a "good stuff" from Sully on this trade.
At one point, Joe touted Shopify and suggested "Mercado Lee-Bay" (sic pronunciation).
As for the market, Jason Snipe said "I think the dips will be bought" in the final months of the year.
Steve Weiss had one of his more lackluster programs.
A day earlier, Josh Brown suggested Sully is on the air "3 hours" a day while it seems like everyone at CNBC is on vacation.
Liz Young predicted September will be "at best a pause in the rally."
Brian Belski talked up Canadian stocks and also grumbled about a client who keeps trying to time the market.
Sully asked Josh Brown about owning megacap tech. Brown said, "The whole country is long these stocks." Brown said being long these names, "you almost can't avoid it."
Brown said that for big tech, until "something materially changes," then, "that's where I want to be."
Judge is penciled in to do interviews at SALT Conference in New York
After Shep Smith's Ida update, guest host Sully opened Monday's (8/30) Halftime Report with his own speech about Louisiana's energy infrastructure. (Translation: I've studied this sector for a long time, need to show ya what I know.)
In the closest thing to a short-term trading call, Jon Najarian, pointing to S&P upside call-buying, predicted a "soft jobs report this Friday," which he said would (in theory at least) keep the Fed on the sidelines.
Sarat Sethi offered that "good news could be bad news" for stocks if the jobs report is strong, but it would be a "short-term buying opportunity."
Joe Terranova pointed out that in 2016-2017, the S&P 500 did not have a 5% correction for 20 months. Joe said there's still "an incredibly friendly Fed" and expanding profit margins. Sully told Joe, "Good stuff," something you don't hear with Frank Holland.
Sully let Steve Weiss do a Shields & Yarnell routine for his first statement as Weiss' sound wasn't working, though the video was.
Once plugged in, Weiss pointed out that some sectors, such as autos, have been experiencing pullbacks and said that trying to time the 5% pullback is a "useless effort" because there's "no response to your conclusions (snicker)."
Weiss said the markets are factoring in Fed moves, but the biggest risk is if the "ridiculous $3.5 trillion bill passes." (Tip to Weiss: There's zero chance of that bill passing.)
Joe suggested that tapering may happen but growth might not be strong enough to justify higher rates.
Weiss said, "Moderna's my largest position," but he's short the 440 calls and 420 calls that expire this Friday because the premium is "ridiculously high."
Kate Rooney reported on PYPL's interest in stock trading. Sarat Sethi praised the company for being "forward-thinking" and said he'd hold the stock, but it's "never" been cheap.
Weiss said he owns HOOD puts expiring Sept. 10 and that the stock is "past the sell-by date." (This writer is long HOOD.) But he said PYPL "has to be a winner" because "it's been around for a long time" and can limit its risk in the stock-trading space. (Remember on Jan. 25 when Weiss was bragging about buying GME March, April puts?)
Doc affirmed there is "pretty decent put activity" in HOOD. Doc said PYPL is going after not only HOOD but "those legacy brokers."
Phil LeBeau said we're "clearly seeing" a "plateau" in flight demand.
Sully complained that airline coach tickets can be $600 for Newark to Chicago. Sarat Sethi said airline stocks already reflect a slowdown in bookings.
Joe offered FDS, a small cap, as a Final Trade.
On Friday's (8/27) Halftime, Anthony Scaramucci said he decided not to change the 2021 New York SALT Conference, set for 2 weeks from now, after consulting with Dr. Scott Gottlieb; Scaramucci explained exactly where the event is being held at the Javits Center and stated that Judge "will also be there" to conduct interviews.
P.F. Sloan, 7 seconds.
Bud Shank, 33 seconds.
It used to be that this page could often take a much-needed detour from television stock-picking into pop culture.
That doesn't happen often enough anymore.
That group you see above achieved fame in the late 1960s for a spree of songs that helped define an era.
Their most famous hit involves a contrast of winter weather between typical north or northeastern climates and that of the nation's most populous state.
You've heard this tune dozens if not a hundred times and quite possibly know all the words.
The songwriters are John Phillips (alone on the 45) and Michelle Phillips (credited on various sources now). There are 2 things they didn't write: The guitar intro, and the alto flute solo.
Those were taken up by 2 longtime sensational session musicians whose names are rarely heard today, and added apparently at the suggestion, or under the direction, of producer Lou Adler, who's 87.
Sometimes, musicians clash over creative differences involving a piece of work. And the result isn't so good.
This is one of those times when it worked.
Not hearing any ‘good stuff’ this week
Unfortunately, Wednesday's (8/25) Halftime Report was rather sleepy.
Steve Weiss was about to make a joke about Jim Lebenthal in his opening statement, but the feed went bad. Moments later, feed restored, Weiss cracked up the other panelists with a zinger about BA directed at Jim.
"Technology is mostly where I am," Weiss said.
Joe Terranova said investors should be in Big Tech, "in particular the megacap technology names that are buying back their stock," which Joe called "an incredibly important point" because the "common denominator" among the strongest names this year is stock buybacks.
Joe also spoke of adding financials because of signals from the "quality momentum" index.
Weiss made one of those arguments that we think never works, an argument that Guy Adami and Karen Finerman sometimes make, that DKS is cheaper than it was many dollars ago because the earnings have improved. (Doesn't that imply multiple contraction?) (OMIGOD!!!! KAREN'S AFRAID OF MULTIPLE CONTRACTION!!!!!)
Jim called VIAC "an undiscovered gem."
Joe said the CRM earnings report could "reverse the underperformance" of the stock and suggested Slack's contribution "is better than we expected."
Tiffany McGhee couldn't remember what General Motors did the other day to prompt her to make it her Final Trade.
What’s the difference between Jon and Pete Najarian?
Frank Holland guest-hosted Monday's (8/23) Halftime Report for Judge — but unfortunately uncorked a gaffe in the opening minutes.
Holland sought a market opinion from "Jon," which made us think that Doc had dialed in and wasn't on the screen. After a few moments of dead air, we realized that it wasn't Jon whom Holland was calling on, it was Pete, in the lower corner box, who ended up doing a Shields & Yarnell routine because his sound wasn't connected.
Whoops.
So then Holland AGAIN said "Jon" while explaining that Pete seemed to be having audio trouble.
But give Holland credit for smoothly mentioning the botch. "Mistakenly I called you your brother," Holland said moments later, while suggesting Pete had mistakenly put himself on mute. (Although when Judge makes name mistakes (he wouldn't make that particular one, but once in a while he makes other ones), it usually becomes a running joke through the rest of the program, which didn't happen here.)
(Sara Eisen, around 3:30 Eastern, referred to "Fed Chair Chowell" but quickly corrected herself.)
Meanwhile, Joe Terranova said Monday's tape looks like a "chase for performance" from folks who just last week "played into that negative thought process."
Joe suggested tapering doesn't matter like interest rates do. "The obstacle doesn't come in the form of a taper. The obstacle comes in the form of a rise in interest rates," Joe explained.
Bryn Talkington suggested the Fed will risk being "late" to tapering and hiking rates.
Steve Liesman said the Fed is "late already" to the tapering thing, so it "should get on with it."
Frank asked Joe if Joe agrees with Mohamed El-Erian that inflation won't be "transitory." Joe claimed, in a clever sidestep, "we've known for the better part of 2021 that inflation's not gonna be transitory in a traditional sense of how we would define that word."
Sarat Sethi and Bryn Talkington both talked up RBLX.
Judge claims ‘everybody’ is saying that Delta’s going to ‘peter out’ and everything will be ‘awesome’
If you think — as some folks on the Halftime Report claim to — that just because stocks have had a good 2021 and a good last 16 months that the gravy train is gone, you might want to pay attention to Josh Brown's comments on Tuesday's (8/17) Halftime.
Brown pointed to August 2010, when he said markets sold on fears this is "as good as it gets," but it turned out, "That was like one of the most buyable, obvious- obviously buyable dips of all time."
Joe Terranova offered a curious mix of stocks to buy and avoid. "I think it's the 2010 playbook. It's looking at the value (snicker) trade and understanding you wanna position towards financials, you wanna move away from commodities, which are highly debt-laden. Apple, Microsoft, they're near their all-time highs, they're clearly defined as quality," Joe said.
Judge brought in Jonathan Krinsky (it's been a couple weeks) to discuss Krinsky's new note, "Don't buy this dip" (snicker) (Is that serious advice?). Krinsky basically said a bunch of hot stocks haven't done anything lately, then cited small cap internals (snicker) as breaking down. Josh Brown said, "This small caps as the canary in a coal mine thing has been a loser."
Judge in the 31st minute mentioned the "rolling correction" (snicker) (guess he's back to endorsing that theory again after a couple weeks of not mentioning it) (#tradingthelast15minutesofthetape).
Jim Lebenthal opened the show by saying, based on "the Anthony Faucis and Scott Gottliebs of the world," that the Delta variant will peak in September and then "tail off."
Moments later, though, Judge asserted that Gottlieb says "we don't know" what Delta will do in the Northeast, Midwest and Pacific Northwest, and, "Everybody just assumes, 'Well it's peaking in the South, so that means it's just peaking everywhere and then it's gonna peter out and everything's gonna be all awesome.' We just don't know. And that's a big issue for the market."
Joe said he's going to be "staying with" CMG and predicted "well above 2,000."
Weiss: ‘We’re at the end of the ripping bull market’
On Monday's (8/16) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss said he's been selling JMIA and VUZI because he's been "pretty clear" in recent months that "these aren't stocks for this kind of market," citing in part that "small cap has done nothing since January."
But his most provocative comment was this: "We're at the end of the ripping bull market. These are ripping bull market stocks," Weiss said.
Judge pointed out that Weiss always used to say that Jumia is the "Amazon of Africa." In curious logic, Weiss said Africa is having "additional problems" with being "undervaccinated," but for whatever reason, Jumia isn't having the same impact as Amazon did last year.
Meanwhile, Jim Lebenthal admitted to Judge, "I'm gettin' a little nervous about this Delta variant."
Well, if stocks were surging a year ago when there was no vaccine ...
Even so, "I just find it hard to be both worried about a Delta variant and an aggressive Fed at the same time," Jim said.
Jon Najarian pointed out that stocks didn't sink on the plunge in consumer confidence. Judge said Tom Lee is saying, "All of these fears about Delta are going to fade."
Weiss said consumer confidence is just a "backward" moment in time that "means nothing."
"Trying to time correction (sic singular) is a way to destroy wealth," Jim said.
Jeremy Siegel, whose market calls can change by the week, continued pounding on the Fed that's supposedly going to let inflation run amok, cautioning that if you sell in anticipation of a correction, stocks could go up by 50% before the correction happens.
"I think the Fed is wayyy behind the curve. Uh, they should've been tapering, you know, 3 months ago," Siegel said.
Steve Liesman said "the Fed was trying to be behind the curve" but now is looking to be "a little less behind."
Haven’t heard about the ‘rolling correction’ in a couple of weeks
Judge opened Friday's (8/13) sleepy Halftime with an intro in which he said, "Some saying everything is about to rally. Can that really happen with the virus still a major risk?"
Well, stocks are at all-time highs a year and a half into the pandemic. How could they possibly go up?
Pete Najarian got the opening question, about DIS ... but he's concerned about the P.E. ratio.
"It was the slowest quarter since they launched into the streaming business," Pete cautioned, though he said it's "probably a buy" but not until it's "something well below 170."
So it's a buy ... but not until it drops at least $15.
Pete also said if you look at the price to book of JPM, "It starts to feel a little bit more expensive."
Joe claims he sees tremendous skepticism toward the market from ‘actual performance results’
On Thursday's (8/12) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss curiously stated, "I see everybody being very positive on the market. And to me, that's a time for caution."
That's curious, because Joe T claimed a day earlier, "I still see a tremendous amount of hesitancy, a tremendous amount of skepticism, regarding where the equity market is overall."
"Where do you see it. When you say you see it, where do you see it," Judge demanded. "Where is it?"
"A lot of the conversations that I would have with hedge-fund managers, a lot of the actual performance results that you're seeing from, uh, large-cap mutual fund managers," Joe explained. "I think it's reflected there Scott. I think people are questioning valuations."
Hmmmmm.
Well, back to Thursday's show, in which Jenny Harrington made another one of those best-is-behind-us calls.
"As we return to normal, it's hard to make money," Jenny stated, adding it was "really, really, really easy" to make money in the last 14 months, "and that's getting harder."
So much for skating to where the puck is going to be rather than where it's already been.
Jenny further said, "You're gonna need to do homework ... Everything that we've been buying lately are not- are not the big mainstream names of the past year. They've all taken a tremendous amount of work. So um, so that's what I'm looking at is the year of work ahead of me."
OK. So Jenny for whatever reason doesn't want to buy FANG or the QQQ or XLF.
She wants to spend a "tremendous amount of work" finding supposedly better stocks.
Josh Brown opined that the stock market may be realizing "it's possible that Jerome Powell isn't an idiot."
Brown made a political call. "Biden's at 50% approval. That's not good enough. They're gonna lose the House, the Democrats, especially if they overreach on tax hikes."
Jon Najarian said the prospect of midterm elections will "mitigate" some of the progressive spending agenda.
Judge asked Steve Weiss his opinion of recent bullish strategist calls. Judge described Weiss as "our resident foil." Weiss said, "You can call me foil, I can call me the Voice of Reason and an outside, you know, the consensus thinker," and added, "We don't need strategists. I mean, look, you gotta be a real fool to say the market's not goin' up when it goes up 90% of the time. How difficult a job is that."
Weiss also told Judge, "My intentions are to make you feel better so you can spend more time writing self-help books than reading strategist reports."
Weiss added, "I do not believe that Biden gets that ridiculous 3.5 trillion package done."
Doc pointed out that the U.S. still has a travel ban with the U.K.; "that's not following the science at all." Najarian said that international airlines such as DAL, UAL and AAL could "really pop" to the tune of "10 to 15% jump in a matter of days" if the U.S. eliminates Europe flight bans. (This writer is long UAL and AAL.)
Jenny said DAL went from $8 billion in debt pre-pandemic to $27 billion now, so it'll be in debt for a "super, super, super (sic 3 "super") long time." Jenny then said MAR slashed costs in a sustainable way, and she seemed to indicate it would be a promising stock, but Weiss dismissed MAR as a "big business destination hotel chain."
Josh Brown said to "skip the airlines entirely; go right to- go right to Expedia." But Weiss threw cold water on that one, stating Expedia gets "excess inventory" from hotels at a discount and that he expects EXPE to get less of that inventory from struggling hotels.
Jenny said that with reopening plays, "You can't paint with a broad brush." (Right, you need to do a "tremendous amount of work.")
Jenny said she bought SYY for the first time. And, like everyone on CNBC, since the launch of CNBC, Jenny explained that this isn't the "Cisco" whose symbol is CSCO.
Doc admitted he had to "cut the losses" on his MU calls, though he loves "pattin' myself on the back" when he's right.
Jenny totally danced around Judge's question about Loeb vs. Chapek or whatever the DIS debate is.
Jenny's Final Trade was FISV, claiming it has an "18" multiple. Yahoo Finance and Google Finance both say it has a 66 multiple.
Joe twice says Weiss’ MRNA call is ‘unprecedented’ among show’s panelists
Well, whaddaya know?
This page over the weekend (see below) posted an update on Steve Weiss' exceptional MRNA call.
23 minutes into Monday's (8/9) Halftime Report, Judge noted the stock's move and said Weiss "has continued to buy it" and "continued to recommend it."
Weiss dialed in and eloquently explained the stock's move Monday as well as the bear story that "this is Gilead." However, he did fumble when Judge asked him whether MRNA holders should buy more or start trimming. "It depends how big a portion of your portfolio it is and how much risk can you tolerate," Weiss said. (News flash: Stocks don't go up or down based on how many other stocks are in someone's portfolio.) (This writer has no position in MRNA.)
Judge later announced that Pete Najarian was buying MRNA calls during the show. Pete's long-term outlook was to buy calls expiring on ... Friday.
Pete said of Weiss, "I've gotta give him all the credit in the world. He has been on this story for a very long period of time."
Joe Terranova was even more effusive, stating, "This is unprecedented in terms of a trade contribution from a Committee member in my opinion since I've been doing the show."
This page is always happy to supply material for the Halftime Report.
Early in the show, Judge was heard to say "the story" is that "rates are going higher (snicker) sooner rather than later" and questioned the possibility of ... multiple contraction ... Marine LePen ... fiscal cliff ... early taper.
Keith Meister evidently did not announce any new life sciences SPACs on Monday. (Though Judge brought up their conversation last week.)
Weiss’ MRNA bullishness looks like runaway favorite for Call of the Year
Yes, Steve Weiss (along with Jon Najarian) has been merely guessing over the past week as to where HOOD goes.
"My position is zero at this point," Weiss said Thursday of HOOD on Thursday's (8/5) Halftime Report. "Today I sold at 65."
But Weiss knows what he's talking about regarding MRNA.
Talking up this stock last November, Weiss earned runner-up on this page's Call of the Year for 2020.
But MRNA is even better this year. Incredibly better. And Weiss hasn't stopped trumpeting the name.
It's possible that MRNA could fall in the second half of the year. But there's been ample time to cash in huge profits. The stock recently went from the $200s to the $400s in the span of about 2 weeks.
In the category of Best Calls of the Year on the Halftime Report (or Fast Money), no one is going to catch this one. (This writer has no position in MRNA, sadly, not for months.)
Meanwhile, nothing lights up an episode of the Halftime Report like an appearance by Keith Meister, who famously in May 2017 at Ira Sohn talked up his new stake in CenturyLink (which now goes by LUMN and has been an absolute dog since that appearance by Meister). (This writer is long LUMN.) "It's really hard to be bearish," Meister said Friday (8/6).
Judge tried to get Kevin O'Leary to say whether he'd hang onto HOOD if the shares started crashing. As if anyone can answer that definitively, as if the answer wouldn't be no. Doc said he owns the 55 HOOD September calls and sold the 75 calls.
Joe would rather wait months, not hours, for stocks to surge
Judge opened Wednesday's (8/4) provocative Halftime Report announcing that Steve Weiss, who had previously vowed he would short HOOD, bought shares of the new "meme" stock at 60.20.
Quickly, viewers realized that Weiss and Jon Najarian were just gambling and/or guessing on where these shares might go.
"You could wake up one day, still, and find this company is out of business," Weiss explained. (That's even more stark than Dennis Gartman's typical "wake up and learn that a mine got flooded" if you owned shares of gold miners. In the entire existence of this page, we don't think we've ever seen a news story about a gold mine being flooded anywhere in the world.) But Weiss said you can make long trades out of HOOD because of "the psychology of meme traders."
Doc sort of took a quiet victory lap on his positive comments about the company last week in a debate with Josh Brown (in which Najarian was basically correct about the company's attributes) and said, "I don't think it's gonna just go out of business in a day at all Scott.
He said he argued last week that Robinhood is "truly a disruptor."
Nevertheless, "I still think it's overvalued here," Doc said, even saying he thinks it was "overvalued" at 38.
"It will end, it will end badly, and I'll be long gone before then," Weiss added.
Then there was the other meme stock of the day, AMD, which tripped up Joe Terranova in quick fashion.
Joe asserted that AMD is "reasonably priced against the semiconductor industry." That got Judge's attention; Judge cut in and demanded to know if it's "reasonably valued at 122 today" or "at 130 tomorrow."
"The answer is yes," Joe said, though he added curiously, for a momentum trader, "I don't like the rate of appreciation."
"You just said it's reasonably valued though!" Judge said. "You just said it would be reasonably valued at 130!"
"But I don't want it to go to 130 by 2 o'clock," Joe said, adding that "6 to 9 months from now," he thinks it can trade 140.
Hmmm, OK ... let's hope that our shares go up $20 in 6 months rather than 6 hours.
"I'm not talking about 6 months or 12 months. I'm talking about 6-12 minutes," Judge said.
In a burst of hyperbole, Steve Weiss said he wouldn't own Chinese stocks, calling them an "illegal contract that's in China, that will go away. You are toast."
NFLX as a value play
Perhaps the most provocative comment of Tuesday's (8/3) Halftime Report came early from Josh Brown, who asserted that Joe Biden is "dropping like a rock" in polls.
Brown also casually mentioned what happens to be Karen Finerman's Greatest Fear: "We've actually had multiple contraction, uh, of about 10% this year."
Meanwhile, "Oh by the way," the economy's good despite fears of Delta and mask mandates. (And a few other "Oh by the way" things.)
Noted "value" investor Bill Nygren talked up ... Netflix. Bill called it a "very healthy company" whose shares are depressed by "extreme focus on near-term numbers." (As 10 years of utter domination by big tech gradually continues to prompt so-called "value" investors into changing definitions...)
Joe Terranova (and the whiteboard background) got a chance on Closing Bell close to 4 p.m. Eastern, along with Meghan Shue, who can't discuss single stocks.
Jim: Vegas ‘packed’
Noting recent comments by Mike Wilson and Scott Minerd, Bryn Talkington offered interesting advice on Monday's (8/2) Halftime Report.
"Don't mistake their possibilities with probabilities," Bryn said.
(Translation: They're probably not right.)
(Actually, Minerd is going to be correct in his long-term interest-rate call, which he was making back in February and March while people like Rick Rieder were saying maybe 2.5%.)
Judge at one point quoted Tom Lee's latest optimistic call, but Lee wasn't on the show (because he was later on the 5 p.m. Fast Money). #bookingwars
Joe Terranova said he's "completely confident" (snicker) after listening to the A Block and concluding "that we have completely liquidated the inflation trade."
So Joe gushed about jumping aboard the banks trade. But Judge and Joe and Jim couldn't even begin to discuss Joe's interest in financials without interrupting and talking over each other and leading to dead air. (#ReopenEnglewoodCliffsorloseviewers)
Meanwhile, Jim Lebenthal, who painted a rosy picture for stocks, said he was in Vegas over the weekend, and "You could not move, with how packed it was."
But there's still a staffing issue. "We've gotta see more people getting back to work," said Jon Najarian.
Jim explained how he got into the famous Dan Dicker trade, RIG, but suggested it's only for the "fun money." Jim said it's "as speculative as it gets" but that the trade "dies" if oil sinks below $50.
Joe quibbled about being asked to make a "macro" or "binary" call on the stock market. Joe said if there is a 10% correction, "we come out of it OK."
Well, at least nobody worried about "A POLICY MISTAKE FROM THE FED AT JACKSON HOLE, OMIGOD!!!!!!!!"
Joe said that buying UBER for 57 in February and selling it 3 months later at 48 puts him in the "penalty box." But Joe said the stock is "much closer towards a bottom." (This writer is long UBER.) Bryn Talkington said it's "more of a utility" and she wouldn't own it as a long-term investment.
