[CNBCfix Fast Money Review Archive — August-September 2019]
If he speaks from the Oval Office and says ‘I got carried away; I shouldn’t have said it,’ then the impeachment movement fades away
CNBCfix HQ experienced a technical glitch with Monday's (9/30) Halftime Report — that's another way of saying that when we checked our recording of the show, we only saw Erin Browne's face frozen on the screen — but that's OK, because there's something else we need to talk about.
Impeachment.
Democrats have a couple of problems here. The first is that the next election isn't really that far away. The second is that, while a very dubious White House revelation has just occurred, some Democrats (not Nancy) have been casually throwing around the term "impeachment" since about Jan. 20, 2017, which opens the door to legitimate boy-who-cried-wolf criticisms.
The problem for Republicans is that everyone basically knows what happened on July 25. And, from what we've heard so far, it doesn't really sound technically legal.
Here's the blueprint. Reagan admitted arms were sold for Contra money. Clinton insisted he didn't have sexual relations with that woman. One of those approaches was far superior to the other.
The American people will tolerate mistakes and bluster and even incompetence. Very few actually want to impeach. Watch any decent movie about the Nixon era, and you'll see how gingerly Congress, even Democrats, tiptoed around this subject through the end. The people will give this person extraordinary latitude. What they demand in return is at least some morsel of truth: Tell us what happened, express regrets, and we'll all get on with our lives.
What’s missing from Ken Burns’
exhaustive ‘Country Music’
On Thursday (9/26), we just couldn't get really stoked about Sully's Halftime, in which panelists shrugged about Peloton and the IPO market, or the 5 p.m. Fast Money, which included Karen Finerman stating at the top that she likes GOOGL, or even Judge's tweets about the poor officiating of pass interference in the Green Bay-Philadelphia game.
However, at times, we have gotten stoked about Ken Burns' country music series wrapping up this week on PBS.
The series is unfortunately too long, a little too much detail from the early years. At times, it can be frustrating hearing about a great song and then getting barely a stanza of the great song. By far the best installment is that of the late 1960s and early 1970s when Johnny Cash presides as, more or less, the King of Nashville, as Vietnam and other controversies swirled, gently endorsing an apolitical, universal music scene that would welcome Joni Mitchell and Pete Seeger.
Here's why we mention it. (No, it's not just to remind you of "Good Hearted Woman" or "Sweet Dreams of You.") (If you watch CNBC and you're around the age of the people on the channel, you know you totally get it when it comes to certain cultural touchstones.) Nobody in this series can even define "country" music. But everyone sure knows where Nashville is. It is almost certainly among the Triple Crown of American geographical aspirations. If you were/are a songwriter who dreamed of hitting it big, most likely, you took a bus to Tennessee, found whatever job would put you in the vicinity of the Opry, and hoped for a break. It might mean sweeping floors and being disowned by your family, even if you're a Rhodes Scholar (that would be Kris Kristofferson). Those types of stories, undoubtedly true, put Music City on the same pedestal as Wall Street and Hollywood. If you're a great jock, a great artist, a great musician, you basically wait for the world to find you. If you're a great moneymaker or a great actor or a great songwriter, you've gotta go knock on some doors.
Burns' "Country Music" is about the winners. For every biographical portrayal, there are thousands of others who took a bus home. God bless 'em.
Karen: Impeachment
minds made up
Most of Tuesday's (9/24) 5 p.m. Fast Money centered around the impeachment "inquiry" announced by Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
"I think it's not really gonna make a difference," said Karen Finerman, super-sharp in black jacket. "I don't think an impeachment is gonna change anyone's mind."
But Karen thinks it'll cause "greater gridlock."
Unless a bunch of senators get on board, "I think this goes nowhere," Finerman concluded.
As for the broader market, "I think ... the VIX is too low," Finerman said. (That's another way of saying, "Stocks are going lower.")
Host Missy Lee claimed "we're being held captive by these headlines."
The Halftime Report, helmed by Sully, was a tepid, smiling affair, except when Stephanie Link again got unbelievably defensive over whether her interest in WYNN is a "trade."
Judge was observed grumbling on Twitter about Adam Parker apparently calling him out on Monday's show.
Jim sure likes predicting the ‘rational outcome’ for president’s consumer-subsidized trade slogans
Judge missed Monday's (9/23) Halftime Report, which was a lucky break actually given how listless the endeavor was, as pretty much everyone was modestly optimistic with nothing new to say.
Jim Lebenthal tried to stress that not much will happen on the trade front prior to China's Oct. 1 celebration of ... communism.
As far as how this curious dispute ends, "I have to go with the rational outcome," Jim said.
Invoking one of his favorite terms of the past, Joe Terranova insisted ULTA is in the "penalty box."
Jenny Harrington seemed almost embarrassed to be mentioning M and its real estate. "I don't own it — I'm just lookin'," Jenny clarified.
4,500 in 2 years
Tom Lee sounded a bullish tone at the top of Friday's (9/20) Halftime Report, stating the market's kind of been "nowhere" for 20 months, and a lot of people generally see that as a top, but "historically, that's a precursor to a big upside breakout."
Based on average historical gains for when this happens, "It's kinda like S&P 4,500 in 2 years," Lee explained.
Amy Raskin, who wouldn't stop interrupting Jim Lebenthal over capex (snicker), said she's "skeptical" of Lee's breakout call.
Joe Terranova said July is "basically where the S&P topped out," and since then, things have been "rather exhausting" for traders. #toomuchmomentumonewayortheother
Judge mentioned Lee Cooperman's thoughts a day earlier on presidential politics. Tom Lee on Friday opined, "I think that the equity markets are- at the moment are telling us that Trump is gonna win re-election."
Jim Lebenthal said "Lee (meaning Cooperman) is absolutely right" about presidential politics and how liberal Democrats such as Liz Warren might affect the stock market.
The show's best moment came in a late discussion of ROKU's downgrades and/or upgrades after the insufferable press conference of Donald Trump and Australia's prime minister. (This writer is long ROKU.)
Jim (#momentumtradingalert) said "there's a lot of question marks" about ROKU's valuation and revealed he sold his stake on Wednesday, "because the momentum had clearly shifted to the downside."
"You gotta stay out of this, because it is a momentum play, and the momentum is clearly to the downside," Jim added.
"Wait for it to bottom," Jim advised.
Judge argued "it doesn't get any easier from here" and wondered why Jim would "wrestle" with constantly trying to call the bottom and top of ROKU and figuring out when to get in and out.
Jim stressed that he tweets "every time" about when he gets in and out, which didn't answer the question. (Remember: Jim's a "value investor" but knows the momentum tops and bottoms too.)
Then somehow out of the blue, there emerged a brief discussion on Jim's integrity and Judge explaining he wasn't questioning Jim's integrity at all.
"Scott, I wasn't comin' at ya brother," Jim said, but he still didn't answer Judge's completely valid question about what kind of advantage Jim has over the market in calling the tops and bottoms of ROKU.
Joe Terranova offered that AKAM is the way to play ROKU's business.
Incredibly, there apparently wasn't any unusual options activity on Friday, no winners rolling up their gains and making 300% when the stock only went up 4%.
Macau is a ‘Special Administrative Region’
Early on Thursday's (9/19) Halftime Report, the Delivering Alpha edition, Lee Cooperman referred to Ken Langone as a guy who's "made a sh--load of money."
"That's the first one of the day!" Judge bellowed, for some reason, as if 1) that happens all the time or 2) the FCC is going to lower the boom this time.
Lee grinned from ear to ear when he gave himself a chance to complain about Elizabeth Warren.
"All this talk about free stuff is destructive," Lee explained.
"Right now the market (is) assuming Donald Trump is re-elected," Lee stated.
After Lee exited the set, Judge told Steve Weiss that Lee spoke on stage about how it's so "difficult" to find value now. Weiss agreed. "Yes, the job has gotten a lot more difficult," Weiss said.
Not sure how a stock market right around all-time highs is "a lot more difficult" to invest in.
But whatever.
Weiss said he disagrees with Lee in that if stocks move up to 3,300 "in a measured way," then Weiss doesn't think it's euphoria.
Very late in the show, Joe Terranova inadvertently opened the door to one of this site's favorite subjects, which is, What in the English/global language is a country/nation/state/city-state/territory/principality/elongated mass of earth that extends at least barely beyond the sea level.
Joe revealed, in an indication Judge left the best moments of the show off the table, "Jim Chanos and I were talking, uh, off-camera, and he made a great observation. If the Chinese were really serious about getting real restrictive on these trade negotiations, wouldn't they go after the U.S. casino operators in Macau. That's a great point by Jim."
Well, OK ... first of all, while it would probably be safe to say China "controls" Macau, um ... not trying to be insensitive here ... it's controlled via some kind of international agreement in which they can't really be 100% China in there, just like Hong Kong ... or the Western investment/culture that gives it international cachet would say sayonara.
Second, China is not the instigator of the trade war. It's not trying to drive out U.S. investments. Whatever status quo existed on Jan. 19, 2017, between the United States and China was the product of decades of negotiations and diplomacy (remember the annual "Congress renewed China's Most Favored Nation trading status today, but not without complaints about ..." in the 1990s?) that most people on both sides figured were long settled. Zachary Karabell, a longtime quality voice on CNBC who used to be on Judge's panel, even wrote a book about it titled Superfusion: How China and America became one economy and why the world's prosperity depends on it.
Someone came along who disagrees, and now American consumers foot the bill for this opinion.
Anyway. Joe's revelation of Chanos' off-camera remark can best be interpreted as meaning that Donald Trump's trade war is a molehill and not a mountain.
Joe was asked by Judge what gets the market going. "I think you have to have the growth peak be taken out once again," Joe curiously said, adding "the runway is there." Yes, it would probably help if growth stocks got going.
Steve Liesman struggles to explain how he knows Fed is feeling presidential pressure
It was another one of those pre-Fed meeting episodes of the Halftime Report on Wednesday (9/18), but things impressively ramped up when Pete Najarian insisted that Donald Trump has "influence" over the Fed and bellowed at anyone who doesn't think so.
Fed ace Steve Liesman said he agrees with Pete on the Fed feeling presidential pressure, stating it creates a "bias" that Steve thinks causes the Fed "to be looser than they otherwise would be."
That prompted Steve Weiss to ask Liesman a tremendous question, which was: Which presidential tweet caused which 25-point hike.
Liesman admitted he couldn't answer the question.
Then Weiss asked an equally good question — whether Liesman is hearing from sources that the Fed is experiencing this "bias," or whether it's Liesman's own opinion.
Liesman responded that "it's based on 2 things." One of those is CNBC's Fed survey (snicker). But Liesman's explanation of the "2nd thing" was contradictory.
"Off the record, I'm not picking that up from Fed officials; off the record though, they are saying they hear what the president's saying and it ain't easy to make policy in this context," Liesman stated.
OK ... sounds like Liesman is saying that Fed officials are telling someone, not him, that they hear the president. (Unless the first "off the record" is supposed to be "on the record.")
Joe Terranova said there could be disappointment from the Fed. (This review was posted mid-afternoon Wednesday after announcement of the rate cut.) "Powell has to come out and not be overly hawkish in what he is projecting for the economy and for the future of rates," Joe explained.
Pete said Joe would be right if Powell gives the "wrong message" (snicker).
Weiss said he'd like to see a 25-basis-point cut and then the comment, "Look, this is it for now" (snicker).
Liesman said the Fed is "still operating under" the notion of a "mid-cycle adjustment."
Nobody said anything about how some chuckleheads are going to get all scared over a word or two used by Powell and "omigod, sell all my stocks!!!!!" despite the fact stocks will rebound in no time because gobs of people are still dying to buy this market.
Elsewhere, Weiss said of ROKU, "It's clearly been a momentum stock," but he said this isn't the type of market for "overvalued equities that are momentum trades." (This writer is long ROKU.)
See, the folks on the show love momentum trades, just not momentum stocks (unless it's Shake Shack).
The show's star guest, Jeffrey Gundlach, was a little wonky and suggested the possibility of "QE Light."
Gundlach, who thinks the lows are in for a while for longer-term rates, said there's a "weird contradiction" in stock volatility concerns vs. bond volatility concerns.
"It seems that there is an increasing probability of recession before the 2020 election," Gundlach said.
Judge began with a bit of a Shields & Yarnell routine as, for a few seconds, the audio wasn't hooked up.
Judge already talking about the end of the rally
Judge returned to the Halftime Report on Monday (9/16) and actually opened his show asking Pete Najarian, "The rally: Is this the week that ends it, or prolongs it."
Omigod .... it might be all over!!!!!!!
Judge also said the "biggest risk around the Fed meeting (snicker entire quote)" is that the Fed commentary is too "hawkish." Gee whiz, if there are still dudes that keep letting Lucy/Fed chiefs' remarks pull the football away from their stock portfolio (before changing their minds a couple weeks later and markets return to highs), they deserve to lose money.
Momentum Trading Alert: Joe Terranova said he's "a little nervous" about McDonald's. "In the near term, I think Josh's Shake Shack trade is probably the better burger trade right now," Joe said. (Why watch a show when viewers can just look at 1-month charts?)
Karen Finerman on the 5 p.m. show said defense stocks were "pretty muted" despite what seems like the type of geopolitical event that would cause them to surge higher.
Sully, panel didn’t say a word about wealth attacks in Democratic debate
U.S. stocks are near all-time highs and easily shrugged off a predictable pullback in recent weeks and overcame Scott Wapner's "thin ice" suggestions of Sept. 3 ... but that still hasn't stopped the head-scratching fears of "volatility" heard on the Halftime Report.
On Friday (9/13), it was Rob Sechan taking the bait.
"It's a very tough time to figure out what to do," Sechan curiously asserted, adding, "We're de-risking (snicker) a bit."
Sechan said his shop finds now an "opportunity" to go from "our overweight equities all year to being slightly underweight."
Refreshingly, Jon Najarian revealed he's "just as bullish as I was, uh, when I decried some of the folks that were telling people to get out of the market just two weeks ago."
Sechan interpreted Doc's statement as advising people to stay on the train and "ride it a little more."
"Not just a little more. A LOT more," Doc clarified.
Guest host Sully played referee and concluded Sechan and Doc actually agree on the U.S., but that Sechan is predicting emerging markets ... or some other unspecific global headwind ... will weigh on the U.S. market.
Later in the show, Sechan said, "We just recently went underweight tech (snicker) actually, actually this week, and uh, last week."
Josh Brown was practically incredulous that Sully was complaining about AXP's supposed stumble of the last couple months.
"I think there's a lot of headwinds for financials," Sechan insisted.
Doc said he'd rather follow Katy Huberty than Goldman Sachs on AAPL forecasts. Joe Terranova said the GS analyst "did a great job of just basically confusing everyone."
Joe declared ULTA "broken."
It was Sept. 3 when Judge strongly implied the stock market was on ‘thin ice’
This being a whirlwind week around CNBCfix HQ, we finally got a chance to take in the Halftime Report on Thursday (9/12), and as usual, hoped to find some trading gems.
Um, that didn't really happen.
Joe Terranova said he's had calls in the QQQ and IWN, and "I believe the market is moving higher," citing the breadth. (#momentumtradingalert)
Nevertheless, Margaret Reid offered, "In our mind, there might be some room for some cautiousness ahead." (As opposed to all those times when Halftime panelists recommend recklessly throwing darts at boards.)
Joe seconded Josh Brown's endorsement of SHAK.
Joe said that "if your timeframe is longer than the next 12 months," then, "Yes, you wanna be in Shopify." That suggestion makes no sense; either the stock is going up or down from here, and if it's going down, you do NOT want to be in it.
If you thought Thursday's Halftime, guest-hosted by an enthusiastic Sully, was flat, hopefully you didn't try watching the 5 p.m. Fast Money.
Al Michaels take shot at Judge’s endless show of clichés (a/k/a No one tells Al that the FAS has done nothing in 2 years)
Before we tackle a few things from late in the week (see below), we need to catch up with Judge's chat with Al Michaels on Wednesday's (9/4) Halftime Report. (The photo above is NOT from the Halftime Report.)
See, here's the thing — Al's the only person we've ever heard on the show who trumpets owning these 3x or 2x ETFs.
And instead of anyone saying "this is ludicrous," everyone pats him on the back. (After all, it's Al Michaels.)
Michaels began by saying, "This is my favorite show, you know that. I love this show."
Referring to Thursday's NFL opener, Judge claimed, "I can't think of a better way to start the season."
Really? No better way to start the season than the 12-4, zero-playoff-wins Bears vs. the 6-9-1 Packers?
In a sign of things being out of control in Chicago, Michaels said Bears fans are "beyond giddy" and added this curious comparison: "Rick Santelli, who's probably down the block right now, at his inverted-yield-curve wildness, could not be as over-the-top as the average Bears fan."
Hmmmmm.
"They won 12 games last year," Michaels said. "They have almost everybody back. Uh, people expect them to, in Chicago, to win the Super Bowl (snicker) (double snicker)." (Those snickers would've been there even had this been posted before Thursday's game, by the way.)
Judge wondered if players kneeling for the anthem is "in the past."
Al said it "probably" is, though it could "rear up again."
Sure enough, Al talked about the "3 times funds on steroids" and acknowledged skepticism, "I get it," even though his "biggest winner over the past few years" was the Direxion 3x financial bull (FAS).
Well, is this really his "biggest winner over the past few years"? As far as we can tell, it had a great 2017, a terrible 2018, and a great 2019, and it's about the same price as it was in January 2018.
Al specifically asked Josh Brown for tips. (Presumably not 3-D printing or Albemarle.) (This writer is long ALB.) Brown offered Al an India ETF (snicker) and the medical body-parts-replacement ETF, IHI.
Al said he should be "more savvy" at investing and wondered to the whole group why he kept Chemours for way too long and frittered away much of a "thousand percent" gain that is now down to only ... "50%."
"What's wrong with me?" Al asked.
Jenny Harrington responded that it's "human nature" and "like how you can't clean out your closet and bring it all to the Goodwill."
Pete Najarian tried to sell Al on one of those slogans from the How We Trade Options playbook about trimming gains. (Yep, great idea to sell ROKU at 60.) (Right, Jim?)
Liz Young offered that Al's concern is called "confirmation bias."
Liz said everyone has it or does it, and it's "OK" that Al does too.
Too bad Karen Finerman wasn't on, because nobody mentioned to Al that stocks don't go up or down because of your cost basis. (They also don't go up or down because of P.E. ratio, but that's another topic.)
The best thing Al did was offer a stark assessment (see, it's not just this page) of the caliber of some of Judge's guests.
"The other thing, hey, Judge," Al said, "Every time you have an analyst on ... and they tell me we're living in uncertain times, would you ask them when we're living in certain times to call me."
Well, at the end of the day ... gotta leave it there.
Pete Najarian admitted there are "question marks" about Mitchell Trubisky and asserted there are "a lot better quarterbacks" around the league.
Jon Najarian gushed (9/4) about how ROKU calls were "UP 700% SINCE YESTERDAY." (Because options trades ALWAYS MAKE MONEY, including those guys who were right in MICRON and trading up to the 50s!!!!!.) (This writer is long MU.)
Weiss keeps telling the truth about the show, will probably get tossed out of the union
On Friday's (9/6) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova asserted, "We have finally broken out" of a trading range, suggesting "the path of least resistance at this point (sic last 3 words redundant), believe it or not, is probably higher."
Really.
The stock market may be inclined to go higher, believe it or not.
Who woulda thunk.
Joe contended, "Liquidity's back once again," and questioned why people are "afraid" of corporations issuing more debt.
Just as in the other segment Friday (see below), Steve Weiss shed some light on the merits of the program (um, that's a nice way of saying it might not accomplish anything) by stating that stock-picking has gotten "more and more difficult" and questioned, with the S&P up "18 and change" this year, "how much stock-picking do you need?"
Like Wade Garrett says in "Road House," Exxxxxxxxxxxxactly.
Weiss tried to tell Jon Najarian that the Fed isn't inclined to react to global rates because it's "not their mandate (snicker)."
Guest host Sully asked Steve Liesman for the Fed's mandate, as though Sully doesn't know.
Later in the show, as Jerome Powell's virtually live remarks were aired, Steve Liesman said you could interpret them as "hawkish or dovish," whichever you like.
Pack of Momentum Traders® (cont’d) (a/k/a Joe faults turning to Canadians for field goals)
In a curious CNBC cross-promotion on Friday's (9/6) Halftime Report, guest host Brian Sullivan outlined Jim Cramer's "Fantasy Portfolio Stock Draft (snicker).
The portfolio includes ROKU (of course), AMZN, CRM and NOW among others. Sully said it all adds up to "what Cramer calls a diversified (snicker) portfolio."
Offering a strange beef, Joe Terranova questioned the Canadian "kicker" of this portfolio, Shopify, and even mentioned Mike Vanderjagt (snicker).
Meghan Shue, stunning in new hunter green outfit and new hairstyle, offered this take on the portfolio which sounds like a curious macro call, "We just don't think now is the time to be taking big bets."
Steve Weiss said he likes the portfolio, but it has "outsized" beta that "begs for some downside protection."
Finally, Weiss got to the truth that nobody on the show wants to admit, stating it's a "momentum-driven portfolio."
Judge doesn’t get it; tons of people are dying to buy this market and just waiting for this ridiculous trade war (in which Americans pay even more for China to rip us off) to blow over
The crew on Tuesday's (9/3) Halftime Report basically sat on their hands and waffled like l'eggo my egg'o, unwilling to tell any viewers to buy or sell in this market right now and relegated to (Zzzzzzzz) pointing out all the stocks or sectors that seem to be "working" despite macro issues.
"There are parts of this economy that are clearly in recession," offered Joe Terranova, singling out manufacturing. (Why didn't he add mall clothing retailers and 3-D printing?)
"Small companies are absorbing this economic weakness more than the large companies," Joe asserted. (Actually, he's probably right about that. This writer is long a couple stocks in the Russell that should be OK but are getting slaughtered this year.)
Josh Brown proclaimed, "Everyone wants to feel good and smart about when they make investments." He added, "A barbell portfolio is getting the job done."
Brown said the medical-device sector (IHI was the symbol he offered) is in a "massive, rip-roaring bull market."
Jon Najarian, who had a quiet show, tried to retrace AMZN's last 24 hours of trading and basically chided any knuckleheads for selling.
Desperate to push buttons, Judge reached for a Nomura opinion and asked if anyone thinks the stock market is NOT on "thin ice." (Was that for real? "Thin ice"? Yes, apparently.) He specifically asked Doc, who didn't really answer the question and would only say that precious metals have gone up "somewhat" because of the market supposedly being on thin ice.
Bill Cohen threw around terms like 2007-08 (snicker) in his ludicrous, dart-throwing prediction about the next crash and how, like practically everyone on CNBC says, it's all the Fed's fault. (He's probably going to team up with David Stockman about how we're already over the debt cliff.) (That was a joke.)
Jim Lebenthal insisted he and Josh Brown had a "discussion" and not a "fight" (snicker) last Friday.
Karen Finerman, dynamite in white top on the 5 p.m. Fast Money, admitted, "I'm really concerned" and warned of "cumulative effects" (snicker) of the trade war. (Why are you so concerned, Karen, when gobs of people are going to pour into this market once this tweet nonsense is over?)
Jim (and basically Jenny):
Greater fool theory driving negative-yield bonds
It was pretty good, but could've been better.
Three panelists (Dr. New World decided to sit quietly) on Friday's (8/30) Halftime Report conducted a spirited, and mostly effective, discussion about buying, or not buying bonds.
The problem? Josh Brown, as he's prone to do, too often talked over/interrupted/cut off someone who was making an alternate point; it got tiresome, and we gave up on the A block.
Brown in fact often makes astute observations; sometimes, he makes lunkheaded observations (such as touting the years-long story in ALB (this writer is long ALB) or trumpeting 3-D printing stocks in the "2nd inning" when they were really at the peak) ... but when other people can't talk, forget it.
Guest host Missy Lee asked Brown about portfolio composition and what to do as the calendar turns to September. Brown correctly noted that the calendar turning into September doesn't really mean anything, then he told Lee that he still "100%" believes in the 60/40 portfolio.
Brown pointed out interest-rate expectations of a year ago, though he significantly exaggerated in stating, "We were absolutely certain that rates were going nowhere but higher." (As far as we know, people on the show have constantly called rates in various directions.)
Jenny Harrington said she agrees with maintaining a disciplined strategy, but "I don't know who's buying bonds."
Brown said some European bond funds are up "30 to 50% year to date." That seems, in general, kind of high, but we're not experts.
Jim Lebenthal jumped in and questioned, "Wait- wait- wait. Are you talking about like Greek bonds?"
"All over the continent! Take a look!" Brown said.
"Let's put this into perspective," Jim said. "You're not getting 30 to 50% on bonds unless you're taking- unless you're taking risk."
"Not adjusted for currency, Greek sovereign bonds now trade at a lower nominal yield than U.S. Treasury," Brown said.
"Josh, Josh, I'm gonna call negative yields what they should be called. Semper Augustus, OK," Jim said, explaining, "Semper Augustus was the name of the most expensive tulip during the Tulip Mania. ... That's what we've got going on with bonds right now. Anybody buying bonds at negative yields ... is saying, 'I'm gonna sell these bonds to a greater fool than me.'"
Jim said, instead of 40% in a portfolio in bonds, "Use cash instead ... You don't get enough yield pickup to go out 5, 10 years on bonds."
"I agree," Harrington said.
Brown insisted, "It's bad advice. Municipal bonds are yielding significantly more than cash."
"They're not yielding 2% till you get past 10-year maturities," Jim said.
"You can absolutely build bond ladders," Brown insisted.
Eventually, the conversation included Jim stating, "I know something about municipal bonds, OK. So just hold on a second."
So ... buy bonds or not? Brown could easily be right. On the other hand, if negative or super-low yields perform a March-2000-Nasdaq like fade, you're gonna be wondering, "What in the world was I thinking?"
Harrington said today's tweets remind her of "waking up every morning and checking the oil markets" in 2015.
Catching up with material from earlier in the week, Steve Weiss actually sounded surprised on Tuesday (8/27) that China says it doesn't know anything about a trade phone call.
Weiss drew disbelief from Judge and Doc when he said a rate cut in September is only "50/50" (snicker).
Joe says Barack Obama made ‘his first election attempt in 2012’
Things got kinda interesting on Monday's (8/26) Halftime Report when Josh Brown — who spent the whole hour trying to get everyone on the program to denounce Donald Trump — sought to pin down fellow panelist Jon Najarian on how the trade war is being managed.
Najarian offered, "I'd say that the, uh, Democrat side of, uh, the ledger agrees with the president as far as what China has done."
Hmmmmmm.
We've definitely noticed, as have others, that Democratic presidential candidates have basically avoided the subject of China trade, an indication 1) it's a losing issue for them or 2) they just don't care.
The notion that the "ledger" actually "agrees with the president" on this subject seems a major reach, given that the only person who really cared about this in the last 15 years or so on CNBC was Peter Navarro, who's basically now running the country but hardly represents any sort of political faction.
Anyway, Brown pushed Najarian for an assessment of how Donald Trump has managed his trade complaints.
"Thus far, it has been the wrong way. It hasn't worked," Doc said. "But, both parties agree that- that China needs to be held to task."
Meanwhile, Doc said any people who are getting flushed out of the market over Donald Trump's tweet war are "probably neophytes."
Shannon Saccocia offered, "There is definitely some investor fatigue."
Joe Terranova, in a choppy performance, initially stated, "Let's, let's be clear — It's a chaotic environment."
OK, fair enough. But then Joe stammered through a parallel to what he called a "similar situation," referring to Barack Obama and "his first election (sic) attempt in 2012."
(We're thinking Joe meant "re-election" instead of "first election.")
Later, Joe drew a curious analogy of the U.S. economy to a "big ship in the middle of the ocean" that is "taking on water," and people are all running "to the one side of the ship." He said that side is the U.S. consumer, and it'll either save everyone, "or the whole boat's gonna sink."
That sounds less like the global economy and more like the Eastland Disaster, although it wasn't in the middle of the ocean.
Josh Brown said he's not in UBER or LYFT but likes UBER better. Doc told Josh he doesn't think either UBER or LYFT is on a "good path."
Missy Lee chides Steve Grasso for saying she was ‘burning time’ on Power Lunch
It seems like someone kinda (urinated) in Steve Grasso's Cheerios on Friday (8/23).
Grasso seemingly took on everyone at CNBC over the latest fee hikes in Donald Trump's war on China.
Near the end of the day's Power Lunch program, Grasso, at the NYSE, told Melissa Lee that the level to watch is "2,800 in the S&P cash."
No problem there, all systems go.
Then Grasso opined about the day's selloff. "Seems to me it's overdone," he said, before awkwardly throwing back to Lee, "At the end of the day, markets usually rebound, don't they."
"Uhhhhhhh ... I guess you can say that; at the same time, we know that he's gonna make some statement sometime today Steve, um-" Lee stammered.
Grasso cut in. "He didn't order companies- Not to step on you, but I see you're burnin' time, but he didn't order companies out of China, he said I'm ordering them to look at alternatives. Quite a bit of a difference-" said Grasso.
"Alternatives- it's still pretty disruptive though," Lee responded. "To move an entire supply chain is disruptive any way- any way you slice it Steve. And by the way, we're never burning time, we've got a lot of things to cover in these final few minutes of the show."
"No, no, I didn't mean that, I said you only have a little bit left, yeah," Grasso clarified, or tried to clarify.
Grasso went on to tangle with Ron Insana, insisting the China trade situation had to be dealt with by someone; Insana gave up and cracked that there's no reason for him to talk.
Finally, Lee said, "We gotta leave it there, guys."
Grasso is generally razor-sharp on market commentary and willing to toss a sharp elbow (figuratively) during some of the more charged-up conversations, but this was a bit of a head-scratcher. He remained somewhat fired up for his appearance on the 5 p.m. Fast Money in midtown Manhattan (see below).
Weiss clues in Mel as to who Chauncy Gardner* is
Despite all the angst in the stock market on Friday (8/23), at least one person on the Halftime Report was fairly sanguine.
"I think you're in a market environment that is probably too cheap," said Rob Sechan.
But Steve Weiss was nearly as amped up as Steve Grasso (see above and below), just in the other direction, stating, "You can't have confidence in the markets when you get these knee-jerk reactions that are completely illogical."
Weiss mocked the president's daily schedule. "He's probably tied up- you know, I guess it was a dollar day at McDonald's," Weiss said. "He was probably just stuffing himself with a Big Mac."
"That's a joke by the way," hoped guest host Melissa Lee.
"I'm not so sure it's a joke," Weiss said.
Actually, we'll disagree with Weiss on that front. Whatever his faults, Donald Trump is in outstanding physical shape, far more vigorous at 73 than Ronald Reagan was at 69.
Weiss got an assist in the presidential bashing from TV colleague Jim Lebenthal, who stated, "I gotta just say this ... this idea of forbidding companies or in any way preventing U.S. companies from doing business in China has to be the most stupid thing I've ever heard in my life. ... This is the stupidest idea I've ever heard."
Weiss correctly stated that the White House has made "outright misstatements" on the status of China talks. (However, while Weiss claimed it's been causing material moves in stocks, which is probably true, we don't see how political puffery qualifies as any sort of legal or regulatory offense.)
"Kudlow has always been King Dollar, now he's not King Dollar," Weiss scoffed.
As for actionable trades, Weiss said he sold the SMH, which he's probably going to buy back as soon as the Momentum Trade Tide® comes back in.
Jim however, went out on a limb in telling his colleagues, "You guys are missing the point that's right in front of us ... we're hurtling down the path of a meaningful recession next year."
Jim went on to sound the death knell for steel companies and manufacturers if they're banned from China.
Rob Sechan responded, "That's a little alarmist, I think."
"It is alarmist," Jim agreed.
Weiss took the bull by the horns again and in the process discovered there's something Melissa didn't learn at Harvard as Weiss asserted it's "too over optimistic to attribute Trump to being Machiavellian when I think he's more Chauncey Gardner."
"I know Machiavellian, not Chauncey Gardner," Mel admitted.
"It's from 'Being There.' This guy watches TV and the last thing that comes into his head, he talks about, it's a great movie," Weiss explained.
(* The last time Chauncey came up on the show, we posted a couple entries explaining we're not sure of the exact spelling of "Chauncey Gardner" because the character officially has a different name in the script and is merely called "Chauncey Gardner" by others.)
Rob Sechan insisted "the high-probability outcome is still rational minds prevail."
Whatever Steve said about the trade war on Fast Money sure got under Karen’s skin
Also on Friday's (8/23) Halftime Report, guest host Melissa Lee read Rob Sechan a question from a viewer about what to do with a new $10,000 portfolio, which is a pretty interesting question actually.
Sechan first said he'd like to have more "context," which is fine, then said he'd do dollar-cost averaging, putting $2,500 in the market today and "move forward based on further price declines."
The thing is, what Sechan didn't say, nor did anyone else, is that ANY approach to the above is a strategy of some kind.
By advising viewers to put only 1/4 of that money in the market today, Sechan is suggesting the market will go lower before it goes higher.
It's as simple as that.
If he thought the market was going straight up, he would naturally advise putting in all $10,000 today.
All of this means that you should NOT, as Rob advised, put in just $2,500, because he presumes the market will experience "further price declines." THAT's the time you should drop in your $2,500.
Consider this a public service announcement.
Tom Lee trumpeted NKE; Bryn Talkington suggested "today's a good day to buy it."
Talkington talked up gold.
On DIS, "Look for weakness and buy here," Talkington said.
On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Karen Finerman offered a fairly lengthy take about how you can dismiss the seriousness of Donald Trump's tweets, but you can't dismiss that "we have a very schizophenic- (sic) phrenic approach to how we're gonna solve the trade war."
Something about that caused Steve Grasso to push back ... and away, we go ...
Joe, Pete, Sarat all say without hesitation they’d fly on the 737 Max
It's taken, oh, about 6 months, but someone on the Halftime Report finally asked the "Investment Committee" if they'd hop aboard a 737 Max.
The answer was "Yes" across the board.
Credit guest host Missy Lee, who on Thursday's (8/22) edition asked Joe Terranova about Boeing.
"I think ultimately it comes down (sic redundant) to, are people going to get back on the plane once it's in service," Joe said. "I don't think we know the answer to that."
But Joe said he'd fly the 737 Max, as did Pete Najarian and Sarat Sethi, who nevertheless thinks Boeing will "rebrand" the plane.
Early on, Joe gently mocked some recent pressure in the stock market. "I guess we don't need a emergency Fed meeting before September anymore," Joe said, adding, "I think there's, there's too much communication. I think we're overcommunicating."
Pete acknowledged that some people correctly realize that the VIX is meaningless and an effect and not a cause. "For all those people all these years who say you know, 'The VIX doesn't mean anything'," Pete said, it supposedly has been predicting 1% moves in the market (yawn) (irrelevant). "So it is very accurate." #whatever (Yes and the box scores in the newspaper are very accurate at telling you who won the games.)
Pete said of Jerome Powell, "Can he stumble again? He doesn't have room to stumble again." OK. Unload all your stocks if Jerome Powell "stumbles."
Pete said he wouldn't own WORK at this level.
Eamon Javers talked about how Tim Cook is Donald Trump's best buddy in Silicon Valley (or apparently anywhere in the business world). Joe was impressed, stating, "There was real concern that Apple would be weaponized," but "that takes this off the table." (That would only be the case if Tim Cook was calling Peter Navarro every day.)
Mel did double duty with the 5 p.m. show. Karen Finerman, in dynamite new hairstyle, revealed, "I'm long Apple; I'm actually a little bit nervous."
We can't figure out why Finerman has been so interested in FL for several years, but she talked about it again and said "Nordstroms" (sic plural).
Steve Grasso complained about Fed hawks who are starting to sound like they're "robotic and on automatic pilot."
Grasso seemed to think Phil LeBeau couldn't really explain the Boeing story in 15 seconds.
Mel said Steve Liesman's wildlife pictures around lunchtime gave Mel "a nice respite from the markets during the day," for those who were worn down by humdrum algorithmic trading.
On Wednesday's (8/21) Halftime, Kevin O'Leary said he's "not that nervous" about pulling out of stocks because credit spreads haven't blown out.
Joe should’ve bought AAPL years ago and held it, evidently
Tuesday's (8/20) Halftime Report, a humdrum occasion, got off to a stumbling start when Joe Terranova initially made the conversation about his own faults in trading AAPL before complaining that the conversation was about his own faults in trading AAPL.
"I own the bad behavior in Apple," Joe said, protesting, "but let's not make the focus of the conversation why I screwed up on Apple."
"No, it's not about you, it's about trading it vs. owning it," Judge said.
Viewers had to listen to another Steve Weiss speech about why he likes the name (something to do with 5G).
Mary Ann Bartels said her year-end target is 2,900 but made sure to state, "We would still be a little cautious over the next few months," to rein in all those giddy, euphoric types who apparently want someone on these programs to approve of throwing darts at a board to pick their stocks as they go to 0% cash.
On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Missy Lee admitted, "I've actually never been in a Lowe's."
Weiss: Firing Navarro would send stocks up ‘significantly’
As Monday's (8/19) Halftime crew (they call it "The Investment Committee," but it's more like a Pack of Momentum Traders®), danced around whether the day's stock market rally should be sold or bought, Josh Brown took a curious detour into definition-land.
"We should be aware, there's something called the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. Something that's being observed is going to act differently than when it's not being observed," Brown explained. "It's possible that we are talking ourselves into something that doesn't end up happening."
Well, frankly, that's a good point, even though it's not exactly a technical definition and the last sentence is a paradox or oxymoron or whatever they call it.
As Brown suggested, peaks and valleys in consumer spending can be unpredictable. Whether people will stop shopping just because they heard Gina Sanchez or David Rosenberg talking about the inverted yield curve on CNBC is debatable, but it seems like regularly hearing the "R" word isn't going to elicit a lot of discretionary spending by the 1%.
Joe Terranova 6 times (that's correct) mentioned "the algos" (or some variation of the term) in his opening statement, suggesting the "algos" care about the 10-year yield now.
Steve Weiss suggested a way Donald Trump could get some traction in the S&P 500. "If he fires Navarro without doing anything else, the market trades up significantly," Weiss said.
Joe actually hung a 225 on MSI.
Judge makes a joke about suspending Doc 4 games for PED (a/k/a Karen’s volatility call)
Time for a pop quiz.
Which CNBC panelist made this comment on Feb. 8, 2018:
"We've seen over the last 20 years probably, spikes in the volatility like this, they come down. They go up super quickly and they come down very quickly as well. ... I think you're much more likely to have a 1,000- down-1,000 day near the time you have another down-1,000 day. That those 2 things are more likely to happen together than they are to happen separately."
What a phenomenal point.
What this person was saying is that if there happens to be an 800-point down day, any other 800-point down days are most likely to happen around the same week, or days apart.
Take that, all of you "Volatility is here to stay" pundits espousing the Momentum Refrain of the Week.
Friday's (8/16) Halftime Report included this curious observation from Rob Sechan.
"It's a really tough time in markets right now," said Sechan.
Really? The S&P 500 fell a grand total of 30 points in a week. In a year that's already up 15%. (omigod, Stocks ALWAYS have to go up, or else ... IT'S 2008 or 2000 ALL OVER AGAIN!!!!)
Sechan added "the bones of this economy are pretty strong" amid headline risks.
Judge claimed it really is a tough time "because we have a tale of 2 markets" (groan) (sigh) (c'mon, Judge) (that one's worthy of lampooning).
"It all comes down to trade," offered Steve Weiss.
Judge said, "I'm gonna say, well, maybe it all ... comes down to yield."
Jon Najarian pointed to the VIX as evidence the short-term bottom will hold.
Doc suggested "all the bad news" of DE is in the market, hence the stock went up.
For those wondering where the suckers are in the market, Doc noted that Pete is long MRK and PFE; "he just writes calls against 'em," and apparently (though Doc didn't say so), someone actually buys them. (Probably someone who's been right and just keeps rolling up.)
Steve Liesman suggested there could be "one more insurance cut."
Guy Adami on the 5 p.m. show congratulated guest-host Judge for doing a whole day of TV and for having "put in the effort."
The answer to the pop quiz at the top of this item is Karen Finerman.
As Judge likes to say, "Good stuff."
Joe not impressed by Larry Culp’s response to negative report
On Thursday's Halftime Report, Brian Belski declared, "Let me be very clear: This is not 2007/2008."
"Nobody here is saying that it is," Judge said.
But Belski seemed to think a lot of people on television were indicating as much.
(We actually like the more creative famous-year references, such as 1937, 1974, 2002.)
Meanwhile, Judge was eager to mention WSJ's article on "Navarro Recession II."
Eamon Javers contended that, "The president's overarching goal, his main goal in all of this is reelection in 2020."
Jon Najarian said he disagrees with that. "If that was his primary goal here, he wouldn't be going after China this hard. He would've taken a smaller deal," Najarian explained.
"I don't think that's true," Judge said.
But Doc said that according to Larry Fink, China is "hemorrhaging jobs."
Steve Weiss notably did not say at the top of the show that he's selling at the leves of Thursday at noon, rather, Weiss said, "I'm looking to sell further on strength."
Then Weiss knocked those who bought after Donald Trump delayed tariffs, and Weiss backdated an apparently successful call; "I actually thought that that was more destabilizing," Weiss said.
Pete Najarian said someone on July 31 bought GE September 9 puts for 17 cents; Pete is now selling them for "over 80-plus cents." #BecauseEVERYoptiontradeissuccessful
Joe Terranova said Larry Culp's messaging was "weak." Joe added, "Someone's using a term like 'off-balance-sheet'? That's troubling."
Steve Liesman made a reference to playing bridge.
On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Karen Finerman said, "To me though, the biggest thing is the tariff uncertainty."
Macy’s NYC flagship has ‘literally no customer service’; condition of Chicago State Street location is like Sears stores of 1970s
Judge on Wednesday's (8/14) Halftime Report had no trouble egging on his Pack of Momentum Traders® who were doing another abrupt twist in the wind in the wake of the Dow's big reversal from Tuesday.
All of a sudden, the recession is here, and there's no way to play it unless you called it last year.
Yes, that's basically what they said.
Jim Lebenthal even contended rather grimly, "Where we're going right now, the Fed is not enough to save it."
Pete Najarian, about the only person who listens to Permabear 2,400-3,000 Dude, identified how "they" were detected rolling down from EEM puts that have been omigod successful. (How successful were all those dudes rolling up those MU calls with the stock around 49 a couple weeks ago?) (This writer is long MU.)
How come we didn't hear anything Wednesday about how "This is all algos." #Ah,thatwaslastweek'sslogan
Judge's star guest at Post 9 was the Permabear 2,400-3,000 (depending on the day of the week) Dude, who said, "Making a call on a recession now is not helpful. Making a recall- a call on a slowdown was a year ago, right. That's when you had to make the call. Which is why you need to position in the defensive sectors a year ago. And in bonds a year ago. The trade is 90% done, Scott, right."
Really. The recession trade is "90% done" when we're 13 days from an all-time high?
Joe Terranova somehow endorsed this buffoonery, stating, "To Mike's point, the time for the recession call yes was last year."
Moments later, Wilson added the word "if," stating, "if we have a recession."
Later, he claimed, "This bear market started in January of '18."
Mike also played professor, telling Judge's panel, "Let's define what an economic recession is. It's just- it's just cleaning out the excesses in the real economy."
Actually, the National Bureau of Economic Research has been given custody of that particular term. According to the NBER, "a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."
The show jumped the shark, if it hadn't already, when panelists started pointing to Macy's as a bellwether of the U.S. economy. Mike faulted the retail giant because it supposedly "hired too much." Check out some Yelp comments about customer service at Macy's NYC flagship. Or better yet, check out the condition of the floors, racks and dressing rooms (photo above) at Chicago's State Street Macy's that resemble something out of Zayre of the 1980s.
Jim Lebenthal actually said with a straight face that the Macy's CEO was "adamant" that he can't raise prices, and "tariffs will eat into his profit margins."
In one of the loopier moments, Joe Terranova asserted to Judge, "Diversification is what is going to get you through and endure right now."
"I know but that- I hear you, but you know, with all due respect, it's like an empty word to me," Judge said.
"No it's not," Joe said.
Judge asked what a person does now in terms of diversifying. Joe gushed about bonds, precious metals and REITs. Judge asked, "How big is your stock position supposed to be." Joe didn't answer the question. #somuchfordiversification #MomentumTrading
Then there was Liz Young explaining how people make money in stocks. "So if the market is gonna continue to go up, you have to actually be in the market to take part in the market."
Really. You don't say.
Otherwise, Young saw hope of recovering from whatever crisis the U.S. economy is in. "The market and the Fed are on the cusp of actually being able to save it," Young said.
Judge was asleep at the switch when Jim Lebenthal uttered the most important line of the program: "There's nothing I want to sell today."
On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Guy Adami impressively got to the point and suggested when this might be "over." He said that might be if the VIX "climbs near 30" or if the S&P touches "2,690 or so."
Karen Finerman, stunning in fuchsia and devastating new hairstyle, questioned the strength of Tuesday's rally given how often the White House has claimed a trade deal is near but said Wednesday didn't seem "ultra-panicky" until the very end.
"I don't know what to do here actually," Finerman said.
Jim refuses ‘moral discussion’ about whether Donald can sacrifice Hong Kong to get a trade deal
On Monday's (8/12) Halftime Report, Josh Brown was allowed to uncork, with a Robin Roberts-style windup, a question for Jim Lebenthal as to how financial markets would react if Donald Trump allowed China to ... let's call it "encroach upon" ... Hong Kong (note: territorial sovereignty, or lack thereof, has long been a topic of interest of this site; like everyone else around the world, we're kinda figuring it out as we go along) ... of course, if "Hong Kong" is simply part of "China," then a country can't really "encroach upon" itself ... but whatever ... back to the question ... in exchange for China agreeing to a trade deal that Donald Trump can wave around like Neville Chamberlain's scrap of paper.
Jim asserted that such a deal would definitely be good for financial markets, but he flatly stated, "I'm not having a moral discussion about it."
Josh Brown suggested there's only so much more of this trade war that the American public can take. "I do believe this now becomes general news that the populace discusses," Brown said.
We were hoping for more from Joe Terranova, but honestly, Judge didn't give him much of a chance on Monday.
Jim: All the AMD talk sounds like NVDA a year ago
Liz Ann Sonders, the gorgeous stock-market observer for Charles Schwab, on Oct. 25, 2018, said she wouldn't be surprised if September 2018 was the "peak of the bull market" for 2 more years.
She still hasn't come around.
Sonders on Friday's (8/9) Halftime Report dialed in to say, "I just don't see how the macro environment is supportive of this being a true bottom here."
That came after a decent amount of gushing by Dubravko Lakos, who contends markets will regain old highs and believes there won't be "much more trade escalation."
"Yes, there is a Trump put," Lakos told Judge.
Jon Najarian said he was looking not at historic levels but whether the stock market can hold the week's bottom. "I believe that it will withstand that," Doc said.
Joe Terranova volunteered, "Where we were Monday evening, I think we would take 2,900 in the S&P all day." (That's like saying, "Gee whiz, everybody last December would've taken 2,800 in the S&P all day.")
Jim Lebenthal made the case for INTC over AMD based on multiple. Doc said he thinks AMD keeps working because of the "EPYC" chip. Jim countered, "Everything that we're saying about AMD reminds me of what we were saying about Nvidia a year ago."
Doc said there was more "unusual activity" in MU at September 41 calls. (This writer is long MU.) What happened to Jon and Pete's gushing about MU in the high 40s a couple weeks ago when so many higher calls were being bought?
Joe Terranova opined, "I still think that Uber is being punished for IPOing too late." Jim correctly stated, "You may well be right about the IPO timing, but I don't think that's relevant going forward."
Doc said he'd buy DBX.
Joe seemed to talk like NVDA is over the hill.
At the very end of the show, citing Greg Valliere, Doc said we might get a "smaller deal" with China now and a bigger deal after the election.
(Momentum Trading Alert) Joe said of SNAP, "You cannot ignore the strong momentum that it is garnering."
Nothing was more ‘complacent’ than Judge’s sleepy chat with Carl Icahn
A couple days ago, this page noted that a president of the United States who is tweeting at people on CNBC at lunchtime is basically a person with #nothingelsetodo (see below).
Steve Weiss finally caught on to that notion, expressing his (colorful) thoughts on the matter on Thursday's (8/8) Halftime Report.
"He's tweeting Mr. Wonderful at 12:30 in the day while watching our show," Weiss noted. "You've got so much s--- goin' on throughout the whole world, you know, what's he doin' doing that?"
Judge said Weiss would make the "highlight reel" with his terminology.
But back to that in a moment.
Pete Najarian observed at the top of the program, "There's some algorithmic trading going on."
Really.
Possibly?
Joe Terranova curiously told Judge he has "no clue" as to whether the worst is over. (But a couple days ago, Joe definitely had a clue as to preferring "low beta vs. high beta." #momentumimpact)
Weiss told Judge, "Like Joe, I have no clue," because a tweet could send stocks down 1%. (And since those stocks always go back up, why isn't he telling people to buy the tweet dips.)
"My gut tells me I think things are OK," Weiss said.
Even so, Weiss added, "Things have changed. That's why I would say, you can't be complacent."
Jon Najarian, back on the show for the first time in a while, launched into how the "50 Cent" guy who buys out-of-the-money calls on the VIX made 500-600% without of course mentioning how that person probably made -100% on many other of those trades.
Najarian sounded highly positive. "I've taken off all of my puts in the S&P. I've sold out all of my calls in the VIX," Najarian said.
Jim Lebenthal dialed in to say he's buying ROKU again, on the heels of a monstrous quarterly move upwards. (See what we mean by #momentum?)
Jim tried to justify the price-to-sales metrics instead of just stating the obvious; "it's a pure play on streaming."
Jim at least admitted that last year he was claiming that AMZN was just going to wipe out ROKU. (Here's the quote from August 2018: "Amazon is rumored to be getting into the same business as Roku. And, you know, that's just a threat that I can't ignore.") Now he's got a bead on those price-to-sales levels that fundamental investors crave.
Donald Trump didn’t tweet about how much he likes Steve Liesman
Tuesday's (8/6) Halftime Report had at least one significant viewer.
Guest Kevin O'Leary, who basically says the same thing about China in every appearance, offered a shout-out to the White House in urging, "Do not stop squeezing their heads."
Judge said a lot of people agree, but, "What some take issue with is the way that the squeezing is being done."
O'Leary said, and it maybe wasn't totally clear whether he was talking about China or Washington, D.C., "I love the chaos of what we're doing there. They have no idea what's coming next."
That evidently prompted a presidential tweet around 12:24 p.m. Eastern. (#nothingelsetodo)
(That tweet didn't say anything about Judge suggesting a day earlier that he and Eamon Javers should hire a plane to fly a banner around the White House stating China's not paying the tariffs, and have the plane keep circling.)
O'Leary claimed that nothing designed to level China's playing field has worked for 17 years. Steve Liesman said that's a "false premise."
Liesman performed his own usual routine in suggesting the financial markets might be more uncertain about what the Federal Reserve is going to do than the Federal Reserve is.
Judge said that "in other people's words," Jerome Powell gave a "muddled" message.
Judge has yet to ask panelists if they’ll take the first flight of the relaunched 737 Max
In a very provocative line of conversation on Tuesday's (8/6) Halftime Report, Kevin O'Leary suggested problems with Boeing's 737 Max might be worse than thought.
O'Leary stated, "This is the first time in the last week or so that I'm starting to think the outcome may be a physical change to the Max, not just a software fix. ... The feeling is getting really heavy that this aircraft may require a change to its physical structure. Now, I'm just speculating, but if that happens, this stock will go to 250."
Jim Lebenthal took exception to that, stating that he knows O'Leary is just speculating (which prompted Judge to cut in and talk over Jim), but there's no evidence of such a fix and that the stock was already trending lower because of the possible delay until 2020.
O'Leary insisted, "I know the personality of this stock."
Steve Weiss called in to brag about buying calls in AAPL, BA and URI on Monday and selling the first 2 names "at a tidy little profit this morning."
Josh Brown said of SHAK, "This could be the beginning of a 20-year run." Brown couldn't tell Judge what his "favorite dipping sauce" for Shack's nuggets is.
Kevin O'Leary said "The Lion King" got 2 stars in "Rotten Apple (sic)."
Basically any struggling company should announce a movie-streaming service; it doesn’t matter if it loses gobs of money, stock will get a 3-digit multiple
Judge at the top of Tuesday's (8/6) Halftime Report decided the market's recovery at that time was "kind of a punk bounce."
Josh Brown offered (serious cliche alert), "I would've preferred a huge open down uh gap lower today."
Brown contended that 20% of the market is "statistically oversold." However, citing the XLE and bank weakness, Brown claimed, "We're really in danger here."
Joe Terranova, who didn't scrap with Josh Brown over risk management vs. volatility management Tuesday, said his 255 bid for MA mentioned on Monday's show got filled Monday afternoon.
Now Joe wants "low beta vs. high beta." (#momentum)
Jonathan Krinsky noted that many market watchers (who were too chicken to buy Monday afternoon, though Krinsky didn't say that) wanted a plunge (yes) Tuesday morning in order to feel better.
That sentiment persisted into Tuesday'a 5 p.m. Fast Money, when Karen Finerman offered, "I find this day so frustrating ... there wasn't enough panic."
Guy Adami on that show said DIS is "expensive by any metric."
In the funniest line of the program, Missy Lee suggested with a straight face, "Don't we need to give a streaming multiple for part of Disney's business?"
Karen responded, "There's some streaming multiple in there already," but "I think they get a pass" because it's not expensive compared with NFLX.
Jim Lebenthal on July 19 suggested market might enter ‘euphoric phase’ for rest of summer
There was some spirited commentary on Monday's (8/5) Halftime Report and 5 p.m. Fast Money, a little too much actually (#Judgecommerciallite) for this page to opine on everything.
But nothing exemplified the prevailing sentiments like Karen Finerman's roller-coaster dissertation on Fast Money.
First it was about how she's "long-oriented" and so Monday of course was "not very good," but then there are names on the shopping list that might "really get overdone," and even though "I'm not out there buying today," there are names such as GOOGL and BAC she would "want to buy," but then again, "Things are starting to feel a little bit out of control, right, and that they could get more out of control," so "that concerns me," but S&P puts worked today, but what do you do with the VIX at 24.5.
So ... kinda interested in buying; kinda interested in not buying.
The Halftime Report was marked by Joe Terranova's huffy defense of semantics that, quite frankly, sounded more like another momentum trade than anything else.
Joe referred to how the tweet had changed things, so even though everyone seemed to be getting really comfortable with being "fully allocated" in this market last week, "You pull back on your equity exposure ... That's risk management. That's exactly what it's called," Joe asserted.
"You're managing volatility. You're not managing risk," shrugged Josh Brown.
"You're not managing volatilty!" Joe thundered.
Joe could've explained it another way, which would be, whatever happened in the last 24-48 hours is the next phase of the market for packs of momentum traders.
Given Finerman's remarks and the observations on the Halftime Report, in which panelists gleefully offered up names they're eager to buy at just slightly lower prices, we got the impression that CNBCers are no less than 50/50 bullish and maybe significantly higher and are just waiting for the current market timeout to elapse.
In other words, they're all eager to buy, just not on Monday afternoon.
Guest Adam Parker on the Halftime Report stiff-armed how people assessing the market outlook can "change their mind based on price" and wondered why anyone would be panicking about stocks given the S&P's potential vs. bonds.
Steve Weiss was dying to get someone to endorse his sell-semis position.
Judge managed to uncork his best line in weeks as Eamon Javers reported that the White House continues to insist that China is paying for the tariffs (snicker).
"He knows they're not paying it also, Eamon," Judge said. "I mean, I don't know what we need to do. You need to fly a- a- a plane above the White House with one of the banners that said 'China's not paying.' And just keep circling ..."
Javers said Mick Mulvaney says the president makes a "broader argument" (snicker) which is that "the damage to the Chinese economy is worse to them than it is to us so therefore, net-net, they're paying. That's- that's the broad argument that you get."
How many stocks mentioned on Fast Money/Halftime have gone to zero since the show began in 2006?
Well, whaddaya know ... 3 panelists on Friday's (8/2) Halftime Report actually spoke independently of "momentum" trading. (See, that's the more realistic term than "stock-picker's market.")
Steve Weiss updated his TWTR "momentum" trade of just a day earlier. Apparently, according to what Weiss told Judge, he actually got stopped out of the stock Thursday afternoon after mentioning the position on the show.
However, Weiss said "I liked the way it held up yesterday, and I bought more- I bought it back."
That's gotta be one of the staunchest momentum trades we've ever heard. Getting stopped out and still buying it back within hours because it evidently didn't fall much farther. (Or another way to put it is that he set his stop too high.)
We've found it interesting that on July 9 (see below), everyone on the panel was gushing about FB at 199 (this writer is long FB) and how previous selling in the name was a "teachable moment." But on Friday 8/2, nobody mentioned it at all at 189. The momentum's down for 2 weeks, so Weiss and Brown prefer TWTR instead, even after getting stopped out.
(But of course, Joe T. insists they're not "reacting to the momentum" but instead are just "observing and explaining.")
In other similar developments Friday, Josh Brown said of SQ, "I think if you're a momentum trader, you're not in this stock right now."
Jim Lebenthal opined that ROKU has been a "quintessential momentum trade."
Brown said "UBER sucks," and he may get stopped out of it. Weiss said UBER's job cuts this week don't "bode well" for earnings. But Weiss said short interest is so high that good news in UBER and LYFT could send the stocks up 20%.
Jim said of SQ, "There's no reason to own the stock."
Jenny Harrington said August marks her 1-year anniversary on CNBC, and a year ago, she said you can't buy SQ at 100 times, and she owned FISV instead, and over the last 12 months, SQ is down 15% while FISV is up 31%. (That's an implication that the P.E. ratio was the catalyst, but it wasn't.)
For those who aren't momentum traders, Josh Brown pointed to pullbacks since earnings in GOOGL and AAPL and called the current prices a "gift."
Weiss said TGT got "bashed in a heartbeat" but is "actually OK here."
As to the broader market, Steve Weiss and Jim Lebenthal both talked about "deja vu all over again." (Gosh, that's clever.)
Jenny Harrington, who repeatedly talked about staying cool until September, said 14 of 16 stocks she owns that reported earnings this week reported a beat.
Weiss pointed out that markets go up "80% of the time."
Weiss laments not being in XPO. Jenny Harrington said she owns XPO because she's a long-term investor in the name for 3-5 years. (See, Weiss is only mad that he missed the momentum.)
Jim Lebenthal actually said with a straight face that "this is a very, very difficult market to trade, because on any given afternoon, in the middle of the afternoon, you may get a tweet that causes you to reverse your positions as a trader."
Seriously? Traders actually "reverse" positions because of Donald Trump's tweets?
Judge warned of the "increased level of risk" (snicker) of the "game of chicken" between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell. Weiss told Judge, "You're giving Trump more credit than he deserves being Machiavellian."
Bill Campbell said we need to look at the 10-year's move in "totality."
Josh Brown was allowed to opine on DIS while his mike wasn't attached. Brown said the stock is "easy."
Jim Lebenthal contended that "Retail's gonna stay destroyed; at least brick and mortar is." We heard Jerry Storch on another CNBC show afterwards stating that there's 2 to 3 times the square footage in retail that's actually needed. (Then again, there are at least 2-3 times as many restaurants as are needed, and that doesn't stop new restaurants, so ...)
In maybe the day's most curious comment, Josh Brown fielded a question about whether it's "safe" to own WORK. Brown said, "I don't really know what that term means. It's never 'safe' to add any stock. Um, stocks go to zero all the time."
Jenny Harrington though called FUN "a safe investment with a 7 and a quarter yield."
To believe that this is a ‘mid-cycle adjustment’ (rather than ‘they’re just making it up as they go along’), you actually have to believe there’s some sort of a ‘cycle’
Steve Weiss on Thursday's (8/1) Halftime Report told Judge that stocks can go up without another rate cut, "without a doubt."
Pete Najarian agreed, "absolutely."
(Had they been on-air a couple hours later, they would've said, "Without another cut, sure, but not with more tariffs.")
Richard Fisher quoted Mickey Mantle in explaining that doing the Fed's job is a lot more difficult than commenting on the Fed's job.
Pete, though, said criticism of Powell isn't unfair. "His communication was the problem," but "give it a little time," Pete said.
Instead of complaining about the irrelevant comments the Fed chief made, why aren't the pack of momentum traders telling viewers to buy any selloffs based on what this guy says or what Chinese tariffs Donald Trump tweets about because the rhetoric will be different in a quarter/month/week/day/hour.
Steve Weiss said he added to ILMN and bought TWTR, admitting the latter is "purely a momentum trade."
Weiss said he's not happy with IBM's Red Hat acquisition, saying IBM should be "integrating" Red Hat rather than leaving it as a stand-alone. Pete thundered, "That's where you're totally wrong. You're completely wrong on that."
Pete thundered that Jim Whitehurst, whom we had never previously heard of, would replace Ginny, and "this guy is unbelievable."
On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, which was guest-hosted by Judge (probably payback for last week), Eamon Javers said Donald Trump was "blaming the market for not understanding exactly what his approach is to tariffs and to China." Guy Adami suggested that, by announcing new tariffs, Trump is "trying to force Jerome Powell's hand" to make further cuts. Steve Grasso said the only thing wrong with Trump's announcement was the fact he "backed off it immediately," saying it's a "temporary" thing.