CNBCfix - Fast Money Review

[CNBCfix Fast Money Review Archive — November-October 2019]

Jenny tells Weiss, ‘This isn’t a craps table. And investing’s not a game’

"We are in the middle of a melt-up," said Joe Terranova atop Wednesday's (11/27) Halftime, an exceptionally good show (more on that below) guest-helmed by Melissa Lee.

The question of whether the stock market is predictable came up (not in those exact words) when Steve Weiss ran afoul of Jenny Harrington (stunning again in olive) with his terminology in the A block.

Weiss was asked by Lee about the upside vs. the downside in this market.

Weiss offered that "it's pretty much in balance."

Then it got interesting.

Weiss suggested looking at other periods "not just in the market but just in life, you're sitting at a, at a craps table. ... You don't know why it's gonna go down at some point, that's why it goes down so much."

Jenny said, "Where I'll pick a bone with you is on that we're a craps table. This isn't a craps table. And investing's not a game."

"No no, I'm not saying it's a craps table, I'm saying that- that- that it's a momentum market, pure and simple," Weiss said. "There's no reason for Apple to have done what it did when earnings were down, revenues were down. It's up 60%."

"It's a momentum market in the short term," Jenny conceded, before adding, "Also I disagree that earnings may slow. I think earnings will actually come in pretty solidly."

"We just don't know," Weiss countered.

"We don't know," Jenny agreed.

"What's your basis for that," Weiss asked.

"The basis is strong consumer, global growth accelerating-" Jenny said.

"We had a strong consumer this year ... earnings grew small, earnings declined," Weiss said.

"I hate analogies that make the market like a craps table where you're just playing," Jenny concluded.

"I didn't mean to offend you," Weiss said.

"OK. So," Jenny chuckled, "But I just think it's important to remember, it's not a game."

Well ... honestly, Weiss made a great observation. It's not just, say, the mystery of AAPL having a huge year and AMZN having an OK year. Things happen in life the way they happen at a craps table. It doesn't mean life is a "game." It means that you might wake up today and get a call offering to double your salary, or you might slip on the sidewalk and bang up a knee, and neither one of those events is fully predictable, in fact either one might be less than 10% predictable; you can do a phenomenal job at work for years and get a competing offer 1 out of every 4 and you'd have no idea if said offer is coming next week or 6 months from now or 3 years from now.

Likewise, you might have believed for the last 12 months that there are good returns to come in the stock market, and you might have quality evidence for believing so, and yet (unless you're Ralph Acampora or Mike Wilson) you can't explain why Q4 of 2018 is disaster and Q4 of 2019 is euphoria; it just is what it is.

We think that's what Weiss was getting at.

Maybe the consumer will start weakening in December or yields will recover further and move the market one direction or another; who knows.

Back to specifics, Weiss suggested that AAPL's year makes little sense. Later, Joe Terranova bluntly offered, "Apple's not gonna go up 66% in 2020."

But as soon as Jon Najarian cut in, "It could!," Joe caved.

Joe eventually concluded, "If it goes up 50% again in 2020, you're looking at one heckuva year for the S&P 500."

That's an understatement. If AAPL rises 66% in 2020, you definitely want to be mortgaging the house to buy the QQQ and back up the truck as soon as possible. (This writer is long QQQ.)

Also, Weiss said in his "craps" pronouncement that he expects a trade deal because China has "gotta stop the outflow of supply chains that are goin' everywhere." We still think there's minimal evidence that this American consumer-funded initiative is creating any significant pressure on China, but we'll give Weiss the benefit of the doubt for now.

Joe Terranova didn't seem that impressed by corporate performance this year. "Talk about earnings, we had multiple expansion in 2019. That's all this market was," Joe said.

Sounds like an equally strong case for Airbus, which according to what we looked up can be bought over the counter

Too bad that Judge missed it.

Whether it was the personnel, the surging stock market or holiday cheer, Wednesday's (11/27) Halftime Report was a dynamite show with a remarkable amount of cogent commentary on a range of investing particulars.

Jon Najarian and Steve Weiss made a strong, convincing case for BA. There are 2 companies in the whole world that make most passenger planes, and the one that's not beleaguered can't meet demand.

Furthermore, it's almost ludicrous to think of other players getting into the space. There's a massive moat here in terms of maintenance and pilot training.

However, the panel did not note what seems to be the 3 risks: 1) the 737 Max is pushed back to late 2020; 2) the 737 Max is NEVER recertified, or 3) another Boeing model experiences Max-like problems. The most likely of those 3 is No. 1; if that happens, the stock may still be a buy, just not until that news is out.

Joe: Price of oil not being discussed ‘nearly enough’

Wednesday's (11/27) Halftime Report took a page out of this site when Joe Terranova told the panel, "The price of oil, I don't think that's discussed nearly enough."

(Hey, like we always say, it's fine with us whenever CNBCers want to borrow our lines; happy to help.)

"The price of oil in the 4th quarter last year fell from 76 to 42," Joe explained. "The reality is, it obviously fell on fundamental concerns because it hasn't bounced back with the rest of the market."

As this page has been saying for a while, Judge (who wasn't present Wednesday) needs to devote an entire show to energy and its impact on the rest of markets, in the event of a surge (doesn't seem likely) or a crash in the price of crude (that's the one that we're wondering about). Get Fish and bring in however many others can contribute, Helima Croft, Fadel Gheit, Paul Sankey, Rob Raymond, John Kilduff, Addison Armstrong, etc.

If the bottom’s in for UAA, it’s probably a buy

Steve Weiss on Wednesday's (11/27) Halftime Report called UAA "egregiously overvalued. ... I don't know what the fascination with this small-cap stock is. ... I'd rather short it than buy it."

Jenny Harrington said she can't own UAA, but then tiptoed into that area that always gets our Spider Sense tingling.

"I wanna give a shout-out to my nephews and my daughter, because they own it, and they own it in their little portfolios that they keep," Jenny said. "Different stocks make sense for different people."

Well, actually, they don't. Either a stock is going up, or it's not. If it's going up, it makes sense for everyone. If it's going down, it makes sense for no one.

That's true whether the account is $500 or $5 million.

Joe Terranova offered that the bottom might be in for UAA, "possibly yes." But he's not interested. Jon Najarian said he wouldn't buy the implication that the company's gonna get off lightly from the investigation; he thinks it's a "don't touch" until that's resolved.

Weiss said he's not putting his kids in CLDR but would put Jenny's nephews in it.

Joe proclaimed, "2019, Chairman Jay Powell is clearly the player of the year for the capital markets."

Joe correctly noted his picture on the CNBC signboard was rather ancient (looks like one we might've posted in the previous decade).

On the subject of CLDR, Weiss managed to talk with such a mumble that we honestly don't know whether he said "entrance" or "exit." Weiss said, "So my (entrance/exit) point is a lot higher than where it is."

It sounded like instead of entrance or exit, he said, "my anderson point."

Fortnite, or something like that

On Tuesday's (11/26) Halftime Report, Judge seemed to be jumping on the bandwagon for a change and even invoked the term "melt-up" ... but then he wondered if stocks are "already stretched."

Mike Santoli questioned if the stock market can handle a "jolt" (snicker).

Jon Najarian brought up one of his tired cliches (many of his cliches are accurate, but this one isn't) about buying retailers at Labor Day and selling on Black Friday, as if that's been a great move for DLTR holders.

Regardless, "The consumer is just crushin' it," Doc said.

Joe Terranova caught Josh Brown by surprise by suggesting NFLX was just as hated years ago during the Icahn buy as CMG was a couple years ago. Judge said "Bill Ackman deserves a lot of credit on this too." (Oh, right. CMG's turnaround is because of Bill. What did Bill get for his Valeant/Bausch stake.)

Joe and Stephanie Link briefly tangled over what constitutes a "defensive" stock.

Joe addressed one of his old favorite symbols, PANW, saying it's "baffling" where the miss was. He said he'd be "very tentative" about buying it now because there's an alternative, which Joe decided was "FN, Fortnite, Fortnet rather, FN, FTNT, right Jon. Fort- ... For-ti-net, not Fortnite, that's the game" (all sic).

Jon Najarian said FCX unusual option activity was "huge," "huge," "massive," "massive" and "huge" (that's the correct order).

Given that it was Best Buy reporting day, we checked out the 5 p.m. show to see if Melissa Lee, as she did about every other day in 2011-12, would talk about how consumers supposedly go to Best Buy with their cellphones, identify the items they like, then order the item on their cellphone from an online retailer. Mel wasn't present Tuesday, but Guy Adami did mention that Lee is the "poster child" of this type of consumer.

Karen Finerman said, "This consumer is alive, but they're not shopping everywhere."

Still not sure how Jim’s capex boom is going to raise wages without inflation

Monday's (11/26) Halftime Report was sleep-inducing, but that's better than the alternative of Friday (see below) when Judge oversaw the disgraceful trashing of Wall Street Journal standards and implication that it posts fake news simply to get Facebook clicks. (Yes, all those 17-year-olds are dashing home from school to surf headlines about Bridgewater's positional moves.)

On Monday, Mario Gabelli was the star guest and basically said that at any given time, you want to pick stocks especially in media that are going to do well.

Gabelli did say at one point, "If oil shoots up dramatically, that's a challenge." Too bad; Judge doesn't want anything to do with an oil/energy conversation, but we'd have to think oil is a lot more likely to crash than shoot up dramatically.

Pete Najarian gushed about how great India can be for Netflix. Pete said the stock "can get up towards 400."

Joe "Topout in February" Terranova said NFLX will trade with a "high correlation" to the market.

Judge pointed out NFLX's chart vs. the S&P this year and how they've differed. Joe claimed the two are "modestly" correlated.

Brandon Copeland, a fine interview, actually mentioned Kelvin Beachum, almost certainly Beachum's inaugural mention on the Halftime Report.

Josh Brown actually blames Facebook for the dispute between Ray Dalio and the Wall Street Journal

Well, now we've seen just about everything.

It was beginning to look like the anti-Facebook hysteria peaked months ago, but Friday's (11/22) Halftime Report just may have delivered the Jump-the-Shark Moment. (This writer is long FB.)

It began about halfway through the program when Dom Chu reported that Ray Dalio "has used his LinkedIn post to respond to that Journal story."

According to Chu, Dalio said in his statement that he doesn't have "any such net bet" on a market drop.

That prompted Josh Brown to declare, "This is part of the Facebook- this is part of the problem with what Facebook has done with, with journalism frankly. They- they- they incentivize clicks. It almost doesn't matter what the content is. As long as enough people hit it, those are the metrics the advertisers wanna see. So, I'm with Dalio on this."

Moments later, Brown spoke while other people were talking but apparently was referring to the Wall Street Journal when he blurted to Judge, "They want the headline. They don't even want the truth!"

Judge was going all along with this nonsense until a few moments later, he seemed to finally have a revelation and cut in to say to Brown, "Let's not go that- this far, I mean, we're talking about the Wall Street Journal, Josh, I mean."

"I'm just saying in this specific case, not in every single case, it's a problem. It's a problem," Brown said.

Well, first of all, newspapers want GOOGLE clicks, not Facebook clicks. They put articles on their Facebook pages to get more people to read them. Second, if inaccurate journalism from the Wall Street Journal is such a "problem," how come we've never heard Brown bring it up before? Third, how does Brown know that the article is inaccurate? Fourth, who should we believe are the real truth tellers, people with Twitter accounts?

According to Brown's argument, America's leading newspapers are compelled by Facebook to publish bogus headlines as click bait because that gets them online "metrics" that bring in "advertisers," apparently including the PGIM Total Return Bond Fund, which was atop wsj.com when we just looked.

This is what someone on CNBC is saying about the Wall Street Journal?

Does Brown see the same "problem" with David Faber's and Andrew Ross Sorkin's and Kayla Tausche's and Leslie Picker's reporting?

Judge didn't have the brass to at least give the report the benefit of the doubt, scrutinize the exact wording of Dalio's statement and note the obvious fact that clearly there's something unusual about the Bridgewater position, or a prominent business publication wouldn't be writing about it.

CNBC.com’s Thomas Franck rewrote this July FT story on Bridgewater Associates; is Josh Brown claiming that story is wrong too?

On Friday's (11/22) Halftime Report, Tom Lee said he's confident of 3,200 by year-end and suggested we could "even exceed it."

Brian Belski, also on hand, said he's still bullish about being in a 20-year bull market. But after Judge cited Belski's note maintaining a 3,000 target, Belski indicated he's doing the timing-the-market thing by stating that hiking his target with 6 weeks left in the year doesn't make sense.

Josh Brown balked at the notion of "10-year runs" and argued that 2000 to 2013 was a "secular bear market," and so the current bull is only 6 years.

That's a fair point, except we don't think anyone in 2010 or 2011 was really convinced we were still in a "bear market," and then Steve Weiss explained, "It depends when you come in the market," adding 2002-2008 was a "very nice bull market" if that's when you got in, and the history is "a series of rolling bull markets."

Jim Lebenthal stated to the panel, "You know I like cheap stocks ... you have to look at energy."

"No you don't," Weiss correctly said to laughs.

"Oil shows no signs of goin' up," Weiss pointed out.

This page has said recently (see below) that Judge should conduct an hour about energy and whether, in fact, oil could actually crash. Or zoom to $100. We have no idea which way it will or might break out, but we'd have to think either outcome is possible.

Jim said he bought more ROKU on Thursday at 157 and now has a "full position." He added, "I can't find a reason to sell it." (This writer is long ROKU.)

Perhaps Bridgewater should critique Jim’s 2 tries at failing to connect capital expenditures to inflation-less higher salaries

Believe it or not, Judge actually did question something — briefly — on Friday's (11/22) Halftime.

Jim Lebenthal claimed that for corporate earnings to grow, it will take "top-line expansion" from the consumer.

So how does the consumer grow? Jim said it takes wage growth without inflation, and "in order to get that, you need more capital expenditure," which means getting Phase 1 signed.

We didn't quite get that, nor did Judge, apparently.

Judge asked, "What does that have anything to do with whether the consumer remains strong or not."

"Well I just explained it to you, but I'll explain it again," Jim said.

"I mean, I'm, I didn't get it, that's why I threw it back at you," Judge said.

"Well, I'll explain it again," Jim continued. "You get capital expenditure right, that means, companies are hiring on productivity-enhancing (sic grammar), whether it's IT or factories, and that allows them to increase wages without inflation."

It still doesn't make any sense, but Judge let it go.

Joe puts together a Rushmore
with only 3 names

Much of Thursday's (11/21) Halftime Report, like the 5 p.m. Fast Money, dealt with the developing Schwab-Ameritrade story and produced more excellent observations than this page can accommodate.

Joe Terranova said the apparent deal is "very negative for E-Trade." But, "For the investor, this is good news."

But Joe said Schwab's nightly sweep arrangement with TD Bank is going to be "a little bit complicated."

Pete Najarian called the pending deal an "asset grab." Pete said the cost to workers of the combined company losing their jobs will be "brutal" and "unfortunate."

Josh Brown said E-Trade is stuck in a "dead business" of retail trading and is "nowhere" in asset custody.

Guy Adami at 5 p.m. predicted more pain for E-Trade but that it gets bought by March.

In other news, the Halftime crew took a crack at Macy's. Nobody said anything about the obvious problem of unclean stores and dressing rooms, but the Najarii seemed to fault Macy's emphasis on more formal clothing options.

Doc acknowledged, "If you're hosting Halftime, you're gonna be wearin' great-lookin' suit (sic grammar)," but that in "the rest of working society," you see a lot of "Lululemon pants" and "open-collared shirts."

On the 5 p.m. show, Karen Finerman indicated JWN is a lot more interesting than M, which tripped over a "very low" bar and faces "tough sledding."

Regarding chips, Joe said he's not getting out of LRCX despite the downgrade, even though "I agree with this note." Pete said he'll hang onto INTC because of the ... snicker ... P.E. ratio.

On the broad market, Judge was heard to say, "Maybe we were a little overbought."

Joe offered a "Mount Rushmore" including Louis Bacon, Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones and clarified that they're on the "derivatives side."

Judge irks Lloyd Blankfein but holds his own in top-notch interview

We were going to take a pass on Tuesday's (11/19) Halftime Report, featuring Judge in Naples, Fla., until we got into the 14th minute of his interview with Lloyd Blankfein.

Oh my.

The stage was set when Judge asked Lloyd, "How do you think about the issue of income inequality." Judge claimed "people say" it's now "the preeminent issue, right now (sic 2 words redundant), of our time," which isn't true, but whatever.

Lloyd began, "Well it's not- it's the- it's the- it's the- you know, inequality is the risk to the stability of society, and so I think, you know, I think we would have to have less of it."

And then Blankfein went on to give a 2-minute answer to the question.

But that wasn't enough for Judge, who followed with this:

"Do you think CEOs make too much money?"

"Do you think television reporters make too much money? I do," was Lloyd's answer.

"Yeah," Judge said, a bit chippy.

"Yeah," Lloyd responded, equally chippy.

Judge offered, "Well, I mean, I don't know if television reporters are, are making such a great, uh, amount of money, and then those at the bottom of the television business aren't making- CEOs are, the wealth of CEOs is going up at a- at an, amazingly high rate relative to the rank and file."

Lloyd rebutted with this: "I'm just guessing that if you, um, that someone must've decided that you in the seat draws more viewers than if you and your cameraman switched places. And therefore you command- you compen- you command a higher wage for the job you do even though when I chatted with the fellow back there, he seemed- you know, I liked him a helluva lot."

"He's a good guy but that's-" Judge protested.

"Very good guy. And probably works hard," Lloyd insisted.

"But the spread between what I make and what he makes is probably sm- way small compared to what you made compared to the rank and file. No? Or what any CEO makes to the rank and file. No?" Judge returned.

Lloyd refused to get too specific. "Uh, it's- it's a wide spread, and it's dictated by- you know, somebody somewhere must have the misapprehension that people in those jobs are doing a job that the next best job (sic) who can be in that job wouldn't fulfill."

"Do you think it's out of whack though?" Judge persisted.

"Out of whack with what, Scott?" Blankfein challenged.

Judge insisted he wasn't asking anything worse than what Jamie Dimon spoke about with Lesley Stahl. Lloyd pointed to the disparity in movie star salaries.

A moment later, Lloyd expressed his views this way: "I'm not criticizing you for asking the question. Although, maybe you shouldn't ask it 10 different times."

OK.

Here's the key part of that conversation. A few grafs above, Lloyd starts to say "it's a wide spread, and it's dictated by ..."

It would be great to hear the end of that. But Lloyd reverted to sarcasm. (Note: the sentence including "misapprehension" is sarcasm. Lloyd is saying that highly paid people, in general, do make a significant financial difference to their employers.)

Blankfein had several times pointed to "Amtrak" and "the post office" as why we shouldn't want the government running things. But complaining about Amtrak (or any local transit/bus systems) and the post office as a sign of inefficiency is misleading because they are operated as a public service, largely to people who aren't interested in, or capable of, paying $19 (the real cost if competitive businesses were responsible for all of Americans' mail) to mail a letter to Timbuktu, Nebraska.

Instead of complaining about the post office, Lloyd could've carped about Uber and Lyft, whose below-market and money-losing rides are not subsidized by taxpayers but Silicon Valley bigwigs who have already scored on Facebook and Snapchat and are hoping the ride-share companies will "figure out" the profitability part of it sometime.

Also, Lloyd ignores the reality that many people working for the government suck at public service ... AND ... many people working at for-profit businesses suck at capitalism.

Anyway, Judge should've asked this follow-up question: "Why do so many CEOs who suck get paid sometimes as much as the great ones who are worth every cent?"

And Lloyd probably would've answered something like, "Why did Al Hrabosky get paid about as much as Reggie Jackson," and you get the idea.

So, how did Judge do ... Well, frankly, he provoked a rare and intriguing reaction from a guy from a very conservative corporate background who normally isn't this animated on any subject.

That is effective interviewing.

CNBCers didn't waste any time with the joke book. Minutes later during the Halftime Report, Bill Griffeth told Judge, "By the way, the boss called, Scott. He thinks you're overpaid."

Andrew Ross Sorkin tried a similar joke that fell flat.

As for the rest of the show, Judge also had an excellent chat with Terrence A. Duffy. Not only is Duffy a likable guy, but when the CME and CBOT were in merger/buyout talks more than a decade ago (that was the Chuck Carey era), CBOT folks were noticed grumbling in newspapers, "Man, I wouldn't wanna play poker with that Duffy."

(Honestly, we'd love to play poker with Duffy, or Lloyd for that matter.)

What Judge should be faulted for on Tuesday's Halftime is stocking a full panel of 4 at EC (Joe even wore a suit) for about, oh, 4 minutes of commentary.

Didn’t take long; Judge already into ‘euphoria’ or ‘blowoff top’ mode

It figures.

According to business television hosts, in the moments when you're not correctly hearing (as Steve Weiss indicated Monday) that stocks go up 85% of the time, the stock market gets mired in a permanent "rolling bear market," and then whenever there's a few weeks of nice gains, we're (basically) sitting on March 2000.

Judge opened Monday's (11/18) Halftime revealing that even the most "notorious" bears are getting "more positive," including the Morgan Stanley dude, who according to Judge "large case (sic) called a lot of this correctly (snicker) (Judge didn't explain what that "correctly" was)" though this fellow missed "some of the upside."

The dude upped his 600-S&P-point range, according to Judge, who suggested this person's reversal is "the final straw to drop."

We sat there and repeated that aloud: "The final straw to drop."

First of all, we thought the cliches were either "the final straw" or "the last shoe to drop."

When do straws drop?

Anyway, the bigger question being, what exactly does Judge mean? Does "the final straw" mean the last roadblock to robust gains ... or "the last straw" in terms of the end of the gains?

Who knows.

Moments later, Judge asked Shannon Saccocia if this is what the "blowoff top" feels like.

Then Judge asked Jim "It all depends on trade" Lebenthal if there's a risk of "too much euphoria" or "final phase" or "blowoff top."

Later Judge suggested the stock market might be in for a "valuation gut check" (snicker).

Matt Boss made a persuasive case for FIVE and for the strength of the consumer.

Near the end of the A Block, Joe Terranova said something that should've been the show's lead subject.

Joe said, "The 75 to $85 price of oil just is not gonna return anytime soon."

So, we wondered, why hasn't Judge addressed this subject, basically, ever. Here's the thing: We would say Joe is probably right. It seems oil has been range-bound for a long time. There's a lot of smart people who track this sector. They have interesting things to say about it. Where's Fish? What are the chances the next move is a crash, that it plunges to $30 a barrel or less, and what would be the ramifications?

Josh lets Judge off the hook after major stumble by Judge on Monday’s recall

We thought at one point during Friday's (11/15) Halftime Report that Judge had flagged one of his panelists 15 yards for Attempted Rewriting History.

Turns out Judge, like NFL referees (see below), has some explaining to do.

The subject of WeWork and John Legere came up Friday, and Josh Brown stated, "There's definitely a business there."

Judge cut in while chewing on his pen, "You said- you said the other day that there wasn't a- there wasn't a business. I think those were the exact words you used."

Brown responded without addressing the issue. "My personal (sic redundant) opinion what ends up happening is that all these leases they've signed ... the landlords say, you know what, if we don't- if we don't get paid, we don't need them as a tenant, we can just run these businesses ourself (sic singular)."

And Judge said no more about Brown's earlier call.

But we went back and looked up the tape. The Legere story came out on Monday. Brown said this:

"What's he gonna be the CEO of? Like, like, I'm not- I'm not being like, deliberately, uh, sar- sardonic, but what is this ..."

Then Judge, not Brown, asked if Brown was suggesting "there's no business there."

Brown responded, "No. There is a business there. It's a highly unprofitable business. ... This business is a commodity within a commodity."

So Judge not only completely misquoted a panelist, he attributed the panelist to saying the "exact words" of Judge's own remark.

We're not gonna call it a Jedi Mind-Trick, just a bungle.

The most interesting thing Marc Lasry ever spoke about on CNBC is selling the Wonder Woman comic book

Desperate for any kind of panic drama this week as the U.S. stock market surged to all-time highs, Judge on Friday's (11/15) Halftime Report wondered if the market really does "deserve to be where it is today."

Jim Lebenthal re-offered the stale advice, "I know I'm a broken record, but this really teeters on the continued improvement in China-U.S. trade tensions."

"Growth as a strategy (sic last 3 words redundant) is back," said Joe Terranova.

The star guest, Marc Lasry, basically said que será, será to potentially appearing in a Democratic candidate's campaign ad (we're done giving this campaign free publicity even if Judge insists on doing so) and added he's "not at all" worried about a recession in 2020.

Honestly, Lasry never talks about stocks but only his private-market debt holdings, which are highly irrelevant to 99% of viewers.

Lasry said "at the end of the day" at least 5 times. (Seriously.)

Jim Lebenthal said of ROKU, "The momentum's here ... enjoy it, folks." (This writer is long ROKU.)

What happened in the Cleveland-Pittsburgh game that nobody’s talking about

By now, you've seen footage of Myles Garrett conking Mason Rudolph with a helmet at least 50 times.

What you might've missed is that a Cleveland Browns tight end and Pittsburgh Steelers defensive back were BOTH called for pass interference on the same pass.

Ed Bouchette, the Pittsburgh beat writer who has been covering the NFL for nearly 40 years, observed, "Never seen PI called on both the WR AND the DB on the same play."

This is the world we find ourselves in, football fans.

Lee needs to stop giving free airtime to Elizabeth Warren (a/k/a Tom Brady’s backup)

We've already grown weary of Lee Cooperman's argument with Elizabeth "Dukakis" Warren and planned to skip Thursday's (11/14) Halftime Report.

But we heard Judge, in an earnest attempt to ask Lee a good question regarding Warren's view, say this: "This is not about, about those who are philanthropic. It's about a system that has enabled people of your level of wealth to get that, that wealthy in and of itself when those at the- either in the middle or at the bottom, can't seem to, to grow their own wealth in any substantial way."

And then we wondered, does Judge actually believe an ounce of what he just said?

We particularly note his use of the word "system."

How is the "system" preventing anyone from becoming a billionaire?

Evidently, the reason Jarrett Stidham is not tearing up the NFL is because the "system" of Tom Brady is preventing him.

At the end of his call, Lee invoked Hyman Roth and insisted, "Next time we talk ... we're not gonna talk about politics."

Hopefully.

Sully says CNBC cut away from Trump speech because it’s ‘very sort of historical and broad-based’ (translation: We’re not airing a spree of political slams)

On Wednesday's (11/13) 5 p.m. Fast Money, the gang took up the Greatest Product of All Time: DISNEY'S STREAMING SERVICE!!!!!!!

What nobody said was that Disney couldn't care less about streaming and doesn't want to do it and only IS doing it as sort of a trench against subscription cable free fall.

But whatever.

Karen Finerman, stunning in lavender (see below), was highly realistic and even came close to ... omg ... stating the truth, which is that streaming = financially unviable ventures and massive money pits, stating, "It's a money, but they've got- It's a money hole funded by someone with a lot of content and a ton of money."

Finerman said the surge in DIS shares Wednesday was so large, it seems like a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of event.

Pete Najarian made an excellent, cogent comment on the Disney+ totals, suggesting "the majority of these, uh, subscribers, the 10 million, are free."

Steve Grasso got bent way too far in the other direction, actually stating that if you don't think DIS should get multiple expansion just because it launched a streaming service, you're "not being honest." (Well, here's the deal ... this page has said for a while that names such as GE and BA should launch a streaming movie service and watch their stocks go to the moon. But in the case of DIS, streaming amounts to shuffling deck chairs on the Pacific Princess.)

Meanwhile, Karen said she's long FDX but is tired of the bad headlines. "I have one bad left- one bad news left, and then, I'm out, and then that will be the bottom," Finerman joked.

Guy Adami actually mentioned Jim Braxton at the end of the show.

Much of Wednesday's Halftime Report, guest-hosted by Mel, was preempted by Powell testimony. Pete Najarian said Paul Tudor Jones said something about an "explosive move to the upside."

Which brings us to Tuesday's (11/12) Halftime, which was also preempted, for a while, by Donald Trump's Economic Club speech ... and apparently some folks weren't too happy when guest host Sully cut away around the halfway point to Englewood Cliffs.

Shortly after this decision, Sully was compelled to say, "I wanna be clear to our audience because some of the people in the Twitter machine are saying 'Go back to'- Here- This speech right now is very sort of historical and broad-based, we're getting sorta texts of it, so, if he makes any current headlines about future policy, in the Q&A, we're definitely gonna go to that. I wanna make sure our audience is aware of that. It's the sorta, you know, we were stagnating, now we're great again, it's sort of an historical thing. It's not moving the markets literally at all. I just wanna make sure our audience is aware that we are monitoring every word the president says and we will go back most likely for that Q&A."

Judge running out of market risks for show drama; ‘a planet could fall on us right now’

After a few entertaining clashes last week, Judge and Joe "The Persona of Liz Warren" Terranova on Monday's (11/11) Halftime Report went at it again, this time when Joe got loopy and actually declared a restoration of the old corporate income tax rate as a big market fear for the 2nd half of 2020.

"You're not gonna go back to 35," Judge carped. "Let's talk about like reality vs. things that will never happen."

Judge was so dumbfounded by Joe's assertion, he returned to it a couple more times, suggesting that fearing a market-shaking change in the corporate tax rate is equivalent to believing "a planet could fall on us right now." (Honestly, that's his best line easily in weeks.) (Could a planet really "fall" on us? It could probably "collide" with us, but "fall" seems to violate some sort of laws of physics.)

Eventually, Joe admitted that his 35% warning is "not actionable for today." (Whew — we wuz just about to buy one of Al Michaels' triple-short ETNs.)

Steve Weiss explained that he downsized a bit but still has "more equity exposure than I typically carry." Weiss asserted, "it's a momentum market."

Joe promised he'd buy BA at the end of the day. Weiss made it sound like buying BA whenever it gets shellacked is a no-brainer.

Invoking Daniel Kaffee, Joe said it's "crystal clear" that if the market stumbles, financials will be the "first place" that money exits.

Weiss got tripped up when he told Josh Brown that 5G is "not fully priced in" to CSCO's price. Weiss had to clarify by stressing he didn't use the word "whatsoever."

Joe 3 times referred to John Legere as "John," as though they hang out occasionally.

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Phil LeBeau questioned whether fliers would be even MORE suspicious of 737 Max reliability if airlines start "offering a $39 fare to fly cross country." (Reverse psychology possibility: Airlines start charging 2 grand to go from JFK to Buffalo on a 737 Max, which will cause fliers to think it's something special.)

Karen Finerman said she really thinks Boeing needs to consider whether it needs to "change the name" of the 737 Max and do a "rebranding."

Joe apparently thought Liz Warren was going to ‘moderate her persona’ after Lee’s letter

A day after coming out on the short end in a debate with Doc over social media ad policing (see below), Judge on Wednesday's (11/6) Halftime Report brought his A game to a couple of conversations with beleaguered Joe Terranova.

Joe said that in a "surprise," Sen. Elizabeth Warren didn't "moderate her persona" (snicker) (as if she were co-starring with Liv Ullmann and Bibi Andersson in Bergman's classic) after the letter from Lee Cooperman.

Judge questioned why Warren would do that now. Joe explained that "the belief I think" of those who say they're not worried about a Warren White House are expecting she'll "moderate some of the policy" as president.

Judge correctly shrugged, "Those are 2 entirely different things under 2 entirely different time frames."

"Not as an investor," Joe said, in a head-scratcher.

"She's not gonna moderate her position on anything because Lee Cooperman wrote a letter to her," Judge concluded.

"I didn't say that she was going to. What I said was, there was an opportunity for her to do that," Joe protested.

"Right, you didn't say opportunity, you just said she didn't do that. I'm glad you're clarifying that now," Judge added.

Jim Lebenthal opined that, "There is a great body of opinion out there that says that if she's the nominee, it actually helps Trump."

Joe puts calendar in a blender before clarifying position on DKS note

For the second time in the program, Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (11/6) Halftime Report botched whatever point he was trying to make and got flagged by Judge in a chat about the downgrade of Dick's Sporting Goods that was criticized by Jon Najarian.

First Joe claimed, "In March, they're gonna give the full-year guidance," for all those who want to wait 4 months for guidance, but that wasn't what got flagged.

Joe added, "I agree with Jon, I think it's late for this note" and predicted it trades "more towards 45."

Judge pounced on the "late for this note" and argued, "Why would you want them to do it earlier and miss part of the run."

Joe was forced to admit, "I'm incorrect in saying that. What I should be saying is I disagree completely; there's further upside."

Asked about ROKU, Jim Lebenthal said he won't know whether it's a buy until he sees the earnings reaction Wednesday night or Thursday. Then, if it responds "positively," he thinks Friday can be an "all-clear" sign to buy. (This writer is long ROKU.)

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, it only took Mel about 9 minutes into Andrew Ross Sorkin's interview with Reed Hastings to cut the cord with the Dealbook feed and revert to studio show. Karen Finerman was asked to opine about NFLX. And as usual, it doesn't matter if NFLX makes $500 billion a quarter (it doesn't actually make that much), the valuation is just too high.

Judge clueless about political advertising, gets manhandled in debate with Doc (a/k/a did Judge proof Thomas Peterffy’s 2016 ads indicating it’s Republican or socialism that aired constantly on CNBC?)

On Tuesday's (11/5) Halftime Report, Judge reminded Josh Brown that Brown owns TWTR and that Brown said he'd never own FB again. (This writer is long FB.)

Jon Najarian gloated that "I own Facebook and I don't own Twitter; Facebook's up 42%, Twitter 3."

Doc raised the issue of who would monitor the monitors, and by the way, Facebook is a platform and not a publisher; he thinks consumers have to discern truth for themselves.

Brown asked Najarian how he'd feel "If Elizabeth Dukakis Warren wins (snicker snicker) in 2020 because she runs a campaign lying about Donald Trump relentlessly every day, funded by money from overseas. You'd be like, 'Well, who's gonna watch the watchmen,' or you'd probably be pretty pissed. C'mon dude."

(First of all, aside from that unlikely outcome, it's highly doubtful Najarian or anyone else would be blaming a loss by Donald Trump on Facebook or Twitter, and second, if they're "pissed," it's not going to be about Warren's ads.)

"It has nothing to do with Facebook vs. Twitter political ads," Doc said.

In a dubious decision, Judge opted to weigh in, telling Najarian, "I really don't wanna do this, but, I can't get past this. You have no problem with crap, and lies, and b.s. being put out on social media and it's up to the consumer and the user to decide what's real and what's not."

"Is this a platform Scott or is this a publisher," Doc responded.

"Is it our job- should I just lie all for an hour-" Judge started to say.

Brown asked Doc whether FB is a platform or publisher. Doc called it a platform. Brown said, "It's not the case," adding "40% of Americans get their news on Facebook," which has nothing to do with whether it's a platform.

Judge said he can't understand how Najarian could "possibly" think it's "OK to knowingly lie" and let the consumer decide if it's true. (Najarian never said he thinks it's OK to lie.)

"Where the hell are we goin', man," Judge said, tossing a sheaf of papers in the air as a visual aid to depict his disbelief.

"It's up to the consumer to do their homework," Doc said.

We're wondering now if CNBC, given Judge's interest in accuracy in political advertising on social media, will follow Twitter's lead and shun political ads for the 2020 season?

We're further wondering whether, when someone opines on a prominent Internet portal designed to sell a product that When the Wolves Bite really is "Gripping ... Told in a breathless, urgent style, this is a trenchant business drama that brings life to its characters," whether anyone has fact-checked this information and ensured none of it is "crap, lies" or "b.s."?

(This site is independent politically and has never endorsed Donald Trump nor Elizabeth Warren nor any other candidate.)

Stephanie shrugs at disclosure of UAA investigation because ‘it’s not the first time’ management has been criticized

Judge on Tuesday's (11/05) Halftime Report asked Stephanie Link, who while talking about stocks tends to get as riled up as Humphrey Bogart in "In a Lonely Place," about the fact she was "adding" to UAA "leading into this" investigation announcement.

"It's a shame," Link said of the announcement, citing the company having a "pretty good" quarter, but she acknowledges an "overhang for a while" on the shares.

Link refused to answer Josh Brown's question about whether this being a "criminal" investigation should make her more skeptical of the stock, actually stating she has "no idea" how she feels.

Judge pointed out that Link "literally" has been buying shares while this important investigation secret was "not revealed." Link chuckled and actually stated, "It's not the first time that people would criticize this management team."

Huh?

Link said she's "not bailing" with UAA down 33%, and finally, there was this: "That's not the way I invest." Does that mean that anyone selling the shares this week is investing in a bad way?

Timing the market (cont’d) (a/k/a CNBC standards for airing a 7 p.m. Eastern market special)

Suddenly, with stocks having a great October-November, everyone knows where the market's going.

Joe Terranova on Tuesday's (11/5) Halftime Report said the market "probably tops out somewhere in February."

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Steve Grasso advised viewers to "trim in November, get long again in December."

Karen Finerman congratulated Guy Adami (of all people) for being more constructive on the market recently; Karen admitted, "I was far more concerned." (Yes, that's been the case for 18 months or so.) ("Haven't been this concerned in a long, long time.") ("As concerned as I've ever been in a really long time.") Nevertheless, Karen offered that stocks have advanced in a hurry, "that was 6% ago" and "only about 3 weeks ago," so ... she's not exactly saying back up the truck right now.

Tony Dwyer ... this is actually what he said ... told the crew on Fast Money that he expects a pullback soon, that 5 of 7 times the S&P is up 20% through Oct. 31, "you could buy it cheaper than the Oct. 31st print." (Now that is some really convincing research.)

Given the early gains in November, Tony's predicting a "2-5% pullback over the next few weeks."

Tony said when the market's down 2-5%, people panic, and "we're doin' a CNBC special." Mel insisted, "No, no, the threshold is like 3%, let's get that straight."

The Najarians aren’t quite as negative on the IPO market as Joe is

Tuesday's (11/5) Halftime Report included some spirited exchanges on the IPO market.

Joe Terranova mentioned the "damage" done to the space and said to fellow panelists, "Do you think investors are going to trust the IPO market in any time in the next 6 months?"

The Najarians bellowed "absolutely!" and Doc even said, "I'll put my money there!"

Doc noted that 4 years ago, Bill Gurley supposedly said UBER is worth $12 billion (we don't have any reason to doubt that; if he's right, that's a good memory); now it's $48 billion despite a post-IPO disaster.

Joe insisted investors have come to believe "the private equity is where the money is made."

Richard Fisher spoke as though it's actually possible Elizabeth Dukakis Warren could be elected president.

Judge kept trying to goad Fisher into picking sides in the presidential race, but Fisher didn't bite, although he defended Lee Cooperman.

Emotional moments from Lee Cooperman marred by shoddy video connection

Judge on Monday's (11/4) Halftime Report had Lee Cooperman, basically for the hour, except often the video feed failed, including a powerful stretch during which Lee was moved to tears to comment on his grandkids' future, a glitch that left Judge wincing.

Unfortunately, Lee's complaints against Sen. Liz Warren only serve to provide Warren a small amount of undeserved publicity (which Lee noted during the program). Nevertheless, Democrats are desperate for anyone besides this senator, who they know would be less successful than Mike Dukakis.

At the top of the program, Judge aired a clip of Warren saying this:

"All we're saying is if you make it big, I mean really big, I mean 1/10th of 1% big, pitch in 2 cents so everybody else gets a chance to make it."

Pitch. In. 2. Cents. So. Everybody. Else. Gets. A. Chance. To. Make. It.

People in the clip applauded.

They need Lee Cooperman to give them 2 cents so they have a "chance" to "make it"?

Is this for real?

Karen Finerman admits ‘there’s a lot to like’ about the stock market

What was Friday's 5 p.m. Fast Money's (11/1) loss was Closing Bell's gain.

Karen Finerman, sizzling in black, sat in with Sully and Courtney at Post 9 and opined on the day of trading.

"To me, this kind of day seemed pretty Goldilocks ... progress on China, although I gotta say I'm skeptical on every update we get ... there's a lot of good things happening ... earnings have been pretty good ... there's a lot to like," Finerman said.

All well and good. Except the stock market is on pace for about its 2nd best year this century, and for the last 18 months, usually Karen has only been saying "I'm really nervous about this market" or "I haven't been this concerned about the market in a very long time," etc.

Karen was asked about Google (acceptable tech P.E. ratio alert) buying FIT while being under antitrust investigation and whether that's an issue. "No, it actually isn't for me," Finerman said, and in kind of a strange answer, she indicated regulators apparently should be glad.

"Actually Fitbit would do better under Google, the Google umbrella, with all of those resources, to be a better competitor than on a standalone basis. So that actually doesn't hold water for me," Finerman said. "I think the regulators should want it."

Karen joked about avoiding the oil trade. "You can make a very bearish long-term case for oil, right. ... I don't own any, so yes, it is going up I guess would be the short answer," Finerman said.

Finerman also made a curious observation about liking GE only when it achieves what would apparently be about a double from last December's bottom. "I have a LEAP position. I figure I'd rather own it higher in the future and have- you know, so I have a 13-strike LEAP. ... It's gonna expire in January and I think my chances of actually having it be in the money are quite low ... I know what my risk is; my- my LEAPs are going to zero I think come January."

It's great that she knows what her risk is (100% for those not following along), but had she just bought the stock instead of an options gambit, she'd likely (depending on when the LEAPs were purchased) have a nice gain.

Weiss submarines Jim, questioning why portfolio perhaps doesn’t match the rhetoric (a/k/a we think Rob meant ‘coiled’ and not ‘uncoiled’)

Jim Lebenthal sorta held court on Friday's (11/1) Halftime Report, for the first time in a long time tangling with Steve Weiss, only to get tripped up when confronted with a decent point.

Jim sounded a little hung up on China rhetoric even though the stock market has correctly started yawning and made clear it doesn't care to hear about it anymore, asserting that stocks have "fully priced in Phase I being signed," but December might bring "a little pause."

Weiss stated that "you absolutely need trade" to get the market to the next level, but unlike Jim, he thinks Phase I is "not fully discounted in the market just yet."

Jenny Harrington said she's "tuning out the macro noise just a tiny bit."

Jim addressed Tom Lee's call of 3,200 (see below), stating, "I don't think by the end of year" and claiming Phase II "is so hard to achieve (snicker)."

Fair enough, but then Jim tried to stress the ramifications of the China IP dispute on capex and how this issue won't be resolved anytime soon.

Weiss said IP has been around "forever" and doesn't have anything to do with corporate guidance.

"It has everything to do with capex," Jim curiously claimed, then seemed to be referring to "China trade tensions" instead of "IP."

Weiss said he agrees with that but that IP's "got nothing to do with capex."

Jim still tried to argue, for some reason.

"Focus on what I'm saying," Weiss told Jim.

"You focus on what I'm saying! What you're saying doesn't matter," Jim said.

Weiss said Jim is "conflating" 2 issues and insisted IP is a "completely separate issue."

The exchange prompted Judge to feebly and obnoxiously chide everyone about not talking over each other, kinda like when Sgt. Hulka was refereeing the barracks conversation in "Stripes."

Later, scorching Jenny Harrington noticed "Jim looks like he's about to explode."

Later, Weiss submarined Jim with this question: "What I'm curious about though, with your concern about earnings and being topped out, why are you in such economically sensitive stocks. That aren't undervalued by the way."

"I'm fully invested, so let's get that clear," Jim said, adding he's at "3% right now" in cash and then, apparently finally getting around to answering the question, explaining, "I expect there will be progress on Phase II."

Jim even used the term "rational outcome" (snicker) twice during the show.

Jenny Harrington said she's sure "there's a lot of cash on the sidelines" and that "nobody's happy." Judge said a lot of investors have been "ridin' the brake." Sechan said "that's a factual statement" and one reason the market is a potential "uncoiled (sic) spring." (A few moments earlier, he said "coiled spring.")

Judge promised Lee Cooperman, who will speak about Elizabeth Warren, on Monday. (Viewers will probably hear that Lee has taken the Giving Pledge.)

Overall, viewers got their money's worth. The first 24 minutes were a crisp, sharply debated assessment of the U.S. stock market.

Tom Lee: ‘Next 8 weeks will be like fireworks’

Back on Oct. 2, Steve Weiss opined that Tom Lee is "bullish all the time" except for "1 time in the last 50 years."

It surely seemed that way on Friday's (11/1) Halftime Report, when Lee, who coincidentally was sitting next to Weiss, declared, "I think that the next 8 weeks will be like fireworks. I think that we could easily be above 3,200 before the end of the year."

"That's possible," Rob Sechan said, even calling it "probably the high-probability outcome."

But that was just the beginning. "This year's looking a lot like 2009. I think it's actually the start of a new bull market," Lee said later.

That one brought a protest from Weiss, who wondered, "This has- I don't see how you can say that, that this looks like 2009," noting we haven't come off a steep plunge.

After Lee gave Sechan his prediction of "more than double digits" earnings growth next year, Weiss wanted to check Lee's coffee cup to find out what Lee's been drinking. Lee said "Kool-aid."

Later, Lee made a less-euphoric observation: "I think the markets are telling us that we- we're- the probabilities are a Republican White House in 2020. Post-2020."

"I agree with that," Sechan said.

Robert Evans: The right guy
at the right time

The Associated Press obituary of Robert Evans included this one crucial description — that Evans embodied "the romance of a now bygone movie era where films were greenlit more on instinct than market research."

Indeed. To those in or around the generation of the Fast Money/Halftime panelists, Evans is far more significant than Warner, Mayer, Zanuck. Many producers/directors/actors put together legendary films from 1965-'75, an especially fertile era for the arts, but none did so as prodigiously as Evans, who briefly grabbed pop culture by the lapels in a way it's never been grabbed since.

It's also noteworthy that in 2002, asked what he'd change about his life, Evans said "the second half."

Somehow, not too long after that professional peak, Evans' star faded in a strangely common way. There are dozens of famous moviemakers who couldn't miss in the 1970s and couldn't hit the broad side of a barn afterwards. No need to embarrass anyone, but ... OK, they're public figures ... Robert Altman, Hal Ashby, Steve McQueen (mid-to-late '70s till his death), Faye Dunaway, George Lucas, Michael Cimino, Francis Coppola, Robert Stigwood, Warren Beatty, Sydney Pollack ...

Yes, there are exceptions. Nobody really talks about it, but Clint Eastwood has actually been a viable, bankable, extraordinary movie star for about 55 years running, a duration almost certainly unmatched in history (Tom Hanks would have to remain an A-lister for 2 more decades to catch up).

Evans, like Elizabeth Taylor, was also known for his high-profile romances and numerous marriages. After enough of those, people got tired of counting, from cachet to embarrassment.

"Glory is fleeting," says George C. Scott at the end of "Patton," and it's just as true in business as the arts. Peter Lynch was once a king; he retired before reverting to market returns. Warren Buffett has long been a king of sorts, but he's been largely absent from the Stocks of the Century, which are basically AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOGL, V, MA, maybe NFLX; yes there are surely others with outsized returns since 2000, but those are the most obvious. If not for Berkshire's safe-haven reputation during the financial crisis, it's hard to figure what the company would be known for during this century. Why does Warren Buffett fail to invest in AAPL in 2002? Maybe because he overthinks it; maybe there are just too many ideas and possibilities for elites. He already made his mark; that's enough. Point being, you don't have to bat 1.000 to be an uber-success; Evans certainly didn't.

Phil gives Boeing CEO a C (at best)

Judge on Tuesday (10/30) helmed an abbreviated version of the Halftime Report, which was partly preempted by the Boeing Senate hearing.

Asked to opine on BA, Josh Brown offered what easily had to be the call of the day: "Everyone who's been in this business more than 15 minutes knows, you buy the congressional hearings. You don't sell the congressional hearings."

Judge didn't bring in Jeff Sonnenfeld for some reason (maybe Sonnenfeld appeared on some other show during the morning) and thus wasn't able to get an official grade on Dennis Muilenburg, but Phil LeBeau volunteered, "He did average at best."

Stephanie Link stated that TWTR is "dead money until at least the end of the year."

Ruth Porat gets paid a gazillion dollars to oversee 4 conference calls a year

We thought it was curious on Friday's (10/25) Halftime Report that Steve Weiss actually claimed, aside from the 2,400-3,000 dude, "I'm hard-pressed to see anybody who's come on the show and say they're negative."

Because on Monday (10/28), Dubravko Lakos offered, "Sentiment is still very negative. Conviction levels are extremely low."

Go figure.

On Monday, Weiss rattled off some historic bull market stats and suggested this market could still have more room to run, particularly given the historically low interest rates.

But Weiss insisted, "It comes back to trade (Zzzzzzzzzz). And that's what it all turns on." (When is it going to come down to being booed at a ballgame?)

Joe "Coiled Spring-turned-Flat-is-the-New-Up" Terranova offered, "You've got liquidity," not just in the U.S. but globally (Zzzzzzzz).

Jim Lebenthal said he still thinks AAPL is on "clear sailing to 250, 260."

Jim waffled like L'eggo my egg'o when asked about ROKU, stating he's nibbling at it but remains concerned about its valuation. (This writer is long ROKU.)

Weiss said he wants LULU to miss big so he can buy some more. (They always say that, and then whenever the company does miss big, there's always a hesitation before buying.)

We'll have something later on Robert Evans, on the business of Hollywood and catching artistic fire.

Rooting for a recession (and what’s a stock-picking ‘genre’?)

The dude who (according to Judge) is always right about the stock market paid another visit to Englewood Cliffs on Wednesday (10/23) and once again claimed he's right ... about something or other. (Gee, wonder, if we give ourselves a 600-point window, whether we could still miss an S&P target like this fellow.)

And in a sign of how desperate these permabears get, he actually declared, "I'm rooting for a recession in some ways."

We didn't actually hear the term "rolling bear market." He did claim, "Our call has been all along ...," which of course is a tip-off that he supposedly made some call he never mentioned before that is supposedly correct as of the time of the program's airing.

One thing he did say was "premature," 4 times in fact (that's correct), as in, you supposedly shouldn't buy stocks now (except all the niche ones that he claims are part of his "secular bull" call).

Judge actually told him there's "a lot of things" that are positive in the market.

The dude protested about being pigeonholed. "I didn't say you were always negative," Judge said.

"That's the genre here," the permabear said.

Judge of course once again swallowed it all hook line and sinker, like Col. Nathan Jessep asked why Santiago wasn't packed, telling the dude, "You've largely been right." Care to explain that, Judge?

Kevin Plank’s ‘real asset for the country’ — Get ready for Round 2 of foreigners tricking folks in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania (but not New York, Illinois and California) who were going to vote for Hillary into voting for Donald

On Tuesday's (10/22) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova indicated FB might be dead money. (This writer is long FB.)

"I think that perception, that public relations nightmare, is gonna linger with this stock for the next 18 months," Joe asserted.

Josh Brown was far more emphatic, outlining all the what-ifs related to free speech and saying of his exasperation with FB, "I don't care if the stock goes to 500; I'll never buy it again."

Joe impressively asked Brown, "Why do you give Twitter a free pass then."

"I don't. I don't think they do a great job either," Brown said.

"You own the stock," Joe noted.

"I do," Brown admitted, failing to explain why TWTR gets a "free pass" that he doesn't give FB.

Speaking of Donald Trump concerns, Judge seemed fascinated by Kevin Plank's assertion of playing "offense" rather than "defense."

Joe chalked up MCD's bad day to the market's "overattraction to a (sic grammar) equity name (last 4 words redundant)."

Judge obnoxiously couldn't stop interrupting Josh Brown while Brown was speaking about HAS.

Striking in red, Karen Finerman on the 5 p.m. Fast Money stated, "I wouldn't be suprised if several years from now, we see the return of Kevin Plank at Under Armour."

Judge hasn’t said a word about hack attack on sports-memorabilia auction sites

Monday's (10/21) Halftime Report was preempted by Mad Money, during which Jim Cramer asserted that the "macro" people are leading the "negative" dialogue in the stock market about bearish sentiment.

Jim opined, "Some of them I think are so anti-Trump, they can't help themselves. They're throwing the bomb, because they can't bear to see anything happening positive (sic grammar) to this man."

While panelists seemed to think things aren't bad but that sentiment might be too low, Joe "Flat is the new up" Terranova said nothing else about the market being a "coiled spring."

John Levin made a lengthy argument that a decent percentage of companies lose money on buybacks (he cited a couple different percentages) and that dividends are the real returns to shareholders. Levin called for disclosures about buybacks and insider transactions. Judge suggested Levin wasn't making a "binary" call as to whether buybacks are good. Levin didn't really confirm or deny that but insisted, "I would not call it a return to shareholders."

It's an interesting topic that business folks occasionally like to study. It seems the bottom line is that some buybacks (basically by any company whose stock is going higher) are a good deal, while others might be busts.

Josh Brown argued that buybacks are much more tax-favorable than dividends. Levin tried to counter that a buyback that ultimately helps share price might end up not being such a great tax deal because future capital-gains rates might go up and thus the value might be "very unclear."

On Friday (10/18), panelists on Halftime and basically every other CNBC show spent the day asking Phil LeBeau what the Boeing memo means, and Phil never could really say.

We found it interesting that for all the coverage of data breaches, Judge didn't note on Monday that elite sports memorabilia auction houses were apparently struck over the weekend by coordinated hacking efforts.

Weiss says ‘Gina Ronety’ is one of the worst CEOs in S&P 500 (a/k/a liking a stock that comes down for the ‘right reasons’)

Just as we were about to catch up with Wednesday's (10/16) Halftime Report, Keith Bliss on Closing Bell said Facebook's purchase of Instagram "is continually looking like the smartest acquisition in corporate history."

The notion of acquisitions actually did come up earlier on the Halftime Report, when Steve Weiss said he didn't want any part of IBM; "I would not invest with this board."

Weiss faulted not only the board but CEO Ginni Rometty, whose name he struggled with mightily. "They've let her run this for 12 years; she's been one of the worst CEOs in the S&P, and they let her go out and spend 34 billion on another company," Weiss grumbled.

Pete Najarian said "Mark my words," Jim Whitehurst will eventually be IBM CEO. (If that's a reason to buy the stock, then that's a fairly long-term plan.)

Meanwhile, Joe Terranova said the "critical" thing about NFLX's earnings is, "You don't wanna miss again."

But Weiss said that would be great. "I would love to see them miss tonight," Weiss said, explaining, "I'd love to get in."

Sarat Sethi said he could buy NFLX "if it comes down for the right reasons." Both Judge and Weiss questioned that terminology.

Joe said that in streaming, "The competition risk might be a little bit more real than we're discussing right now."

Pete opined on AMZN. "This is really a company about AWS. That's what it is," Pete said, missing the bigger picture, which is that it's a company that does STREAMING!!!!!!!!!!!!

Joe admitted he bought WORK because "Josh got me in." Pete scoffed that he doesn't agree with Brown's call at all.

Weiss admitted, "I bought it as a trade." He added, "Josh did put up a very strong call on it ... and Josh knows what he's doing, I mean, this is his backyard."

"Here's the 'but' part of that," offered Jon Najarian. "There are lots of companies that I like that I don't wanna own. ... This is one of those."

Doc suggested a stock price of "teens" for Slack.

Doc pointed out that WDAY a day earlier had a "horrible analyst day."

Weiss couldn't give Sarat good enough answers for why he got into WORK and when he might get out.

Weiss said he still owns DXC though it's been a "terrible call." (Have to admit, he's right about that, it's a chart disaster.)

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Guy Adami took a victory lap on NFLX, stating, "I get a lot wrong; we got this one right," which apparently was a buy call if the shares held 252, it'll flush a lot of people out; "that's exactly what happened." But Guy said at 312, "You absolutely have to take the money and run now."

Karen Finerman was asked about NFLX. Which is utterly pointless. Because even if NFLX posts quarterly revenue of 150 billion dollars and wins 17 Oscars and signs up 3.2 billion subscribers, Karen is going to complain about THE P.E. RATIO.

Sure enough, that was the case Wednesday. "Too expensive, can't be long it," Finerman said. She also complained later about WDAY's valuation. (OK. Had to do it. Sorry. Can we get make-up points by noting Karen's enchanting turquoise-green ensemble with new hairstyle and including a picture?)

Joe now happy with ‘flat’ market

For the last week, this page has been touting how Joe Terranova, virtually alone amid the rest of his Halftime Report colleagues, has apparently correctly sensed that the stock market is a "coiled spring."

On Tuesday (10/15), Joe's enthusiasm was limited to "Flat is the new up" (Zzzzzzzzzz).

Joe made a clumsy analogy of the Federal Reserve "intercepting the ball" and putting the White House back on offense (snicker), but instead of looking for splash plays in this "coiled spring," Joe instead now wants the White House to "just run the ball."

Jim Lebenthal pointed out the S&P 500 is flat since 2018. (What does that have to do with where it's going?) "It's been a field-position game right now," Jim said. "It hasn't been a high-scoring, you know, Kansas City vs. L.A. shootout."

Thank goodness. Anyone who considers Rams-Chiefs games to be NFL football (and not Arena Ball) needs to watch more football.

Where’s the ‘Truth Trio’?

And we thought it was a trading show.

Joe Terranova, who's having a great month, had the audacity to hypothesize on Tuesday's (10/15) Halftime Report about the notion of favoring NFLX over DIS, grumbling that the latter has been stuck in neutral (that is, since it took off after its STREAMING announcement. Did you know Disney is doing STREAMING??!!!?!!!!).

Immediately, Jim Lebenthal protested that all the sexy media names are down.

Joe correctly pointed out NFLX is up 6% in October.

Jim scoffed, "Don't give me that. Netflix has been in a huge downtrend."

OK. So Jim's explanation for NFLX having a much better month than DIS is ... luck?

"Maybe I should be in Netflix, not Disney," Joe shrugged.

"Maybe you should," Jim said.

Jon Najarian said everyone who comes on CNBC loves DIS, so when everyone's on the same side of the boat, "the boat tips over."

We get it; Jim shouldn’t take Judge’s jabs about ROKU personally, nor should Judge believe that Jim is offended

Doc and Judge on Tuesday's (10/15) Halftime Report agreed that the big upside in the JPM report was FICC (snicker).

Joe Terranova bought more JPM, "absolutely," and pointed out the 3-month/10-year is now +7 basis points.

Doc said Brexit talks (snicker) look "pretty positive."

Jim Lebenthal made a pronouncement on financials: "This needs to be said — they're buying back shares like crazy." (When the best companies can do is buybacks, it doesn't say that much for growth.)

Stephanie Link spoke as if an improving yield curve is signed, sealed, delivered, stating NIM fears are "kind of in the rear-view mirror."

Link said she bought more JNJ.

Joe said if NVDA breaks 200, then 200 will be a floor; for now, it's a ceiling.

Judge returned to ROKU, a stock that Jim likes to momentum-trade. (This writer is long ROKU.)

Jim promised that if he buys ROKU, he'll "tweet it out."

Judge said a "mere mortal" might have "a difficult time" successfully trading in and out of ROKU.

Jim said maybe the stock will be his "Waterloo."

Doc said the ROKU-AAPL arrangement is "big news."

Judge and Jim clumsily kept announcing that they're not really giving each other a hard time. "The viewers might not know that," Judge explained.

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Karen Finerman, who was stunning in gray sweater, said her takeaway from the bank earnings is that "The consumer is really spending."

Doc blames 737 Max crashes on ‘act of God and/or undereducation of pilots’

This one left the panel speechless.

Guest host Sully on Monday's (10/14) Halftime Report mentioned Boeing's leadership move and asked if the CEO is safe.

Yes, said Jon Najarian, who opined that it's "pretty close to an act of God what has gone on with these jets, and/or undereducation of pilots."

Najarian further stated that apparently, among pilots, the word is that the co-pilots in these crashes weren't ready to fly a Max. "I heard from pilots with- with a lot of hours that the pilots in particular in the right seat, the co-pilots, didn't have nearly enough, uh, time in the jets. And that is a significant contributor to any accident. It's human," Najarian said.

Sully took it all in and seemed surprised that other panelists didn't want to join the conversation. Jenny Harrington did say she'd have to "wait and see" as far as buying the stock.

Important note: This page doesn't know the cause(s) of these tragedies and isn't expressing a view as to whether Najarian is correct.

Sully referred to the "trade guillotine" that hangs over the stock market.

Joe Terranova advised, "You cannot get too involved in these headlines."

Jenny Harrington, absolutely stunning in new hairstyle, delivered a very interesting statistic, stating JPMorgan reported recently that the top 10% of earners in the country spend 63% of discretionary income, while the other 90% "spend 101%."

Unfortunately, neither Jenny nor Sully identified another important number, which is, what level of income puts someone in the top 10%. According to a simple Internet search, it's $118,400.

Joe’s on fire (a/k/a all the folks who say it’s a range-bound market sound like all the folks in 2017 who said it’s a low-volatility market)

Hopefully he'll stick with it and leave the doubters in the dust.

Joe Terranova on Thursday's (10/10) Halftime Report doubled down on his correct observation that the stock market is a "coiled spring," something the "uncertainty" crowd has failed to grasp for months, in the same way how it would take 5 minutes for a stimulus to reach a T. rex's brain.

"Q4 (that's correct, Q4, not 'QE4') of 2019 does not look like Q4 of 2018," Joe said, pointing out we don't have a "hostile Fred (sic humorous pronunciation)."

Others are starting to catch on. Sarat Sethi offered, "Joe has a really good point. This could be a coiled spring. If things go right, the right way, there is a lot of money on the sidelines. And there's a lot of negativity baked into this market."

Sarat could've put it a bit more simply: People are dying to buy this market and just waiting for the all-clear on China.

Jim Lebenthal, who in fact in June or July was predicting a summer meltup but has curiously shied away from that prediction recently, stated that any agreement this week with China is at best a "mini-deal" or a "truce."

Jim suggested that the best-case scenario on the trade front is maybe a short-lived calm from President Navarro ("President Navarro" is this site's term, not Jim's). "A month's worth of stability is all he can stomach before he needs to inject chaos," Jim said.

But Joe said China has reasons to stall. "They're not going to do a deal that is going to significantly appreciate their currency," Joe said.

Jon Najarian said he's basically agreeing with Jim Cramer that this market is "unfathomable."

"But I also agree with Joe," Doc added.

Doc referred to "QE4" as "that hand under the market here."

Jim and Sarat both touted CSCO, although they stressed the long-term nature and didn't exactly sound excited about owning it now.

Sarat Sethi made a case for MS, citing a "really good management team" among other factors.

Doc said he's not interested in banks so much because he wants "the beta" or "the outperformance" or "the alpha, I guess."

Judge made the Pac-Man sound when talking about MS being up "4%, wah-wah-wah, year to date, I mean, that's it?"

Joe also said "Sherman (sic) Williams"; Judge actually flagged that one.

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Karen "I'm worried ... I'm more concerned than I've been in months ... This market scares me ... I haven't been this worried in a while ... I'm not a fan of this market ... This market scares me more than any time in my career" Finerman was at it again, declaring, "This rally is one to be faded." (How does a couple days up constitute a "rally"?)

The rest of Karen's 5 p.m. gang, as they typically have done for about 10 years now, suggested again that we're probably "goin' lower" in some way, shape or form. We also heard the term "rolling bear market" again. (S&P 500 closed Sept. 30 up 18.74% on the year.)

Remember when Intel’s CEO choice was really a big deal? Can anyone name Intel’s CEO?

Well, someone gets it.

On Wednesday's (10/9) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova told guest host Sully that it seems like stocks are a "coiled spring."

We'd put it (and have put it) a bit more bluntly, that people are dying to buy this market, that the Fed and the White House are happy to pump whatever cash is needed to goose the S&P 500, and the only thing keeping it below 3,300 is President Navarro's scattershot obsession with making fun of China; once he finds some other hobbies and declares victory, this market screams higher.

Joe said it's about liquidity, and we have "not a hostile Fed, but a friendly Fed."

Nevertheless, Grandpa Mike Farr (who actually does a decent job on these shows, better than when he gets the afternoon-show hits) stressed that people are making "changes" to portfolios, and he claimed with a straight face that "the risk trade is really going away."

Meghan Shue disagreed with Doc and Joe about using the term "QE"; stating "it is liquidity" but insisting that calling what the Fed's doing "QE" is not a "fair representation."

Pete Najarian thundered that Tuesday's late selling and Wednesday's recovery were all about China, not the Fed.

Pete said someone's buying "beta names" in oil-space options.

Sully shot down Joe's suggestion of DVN for those interested in energy.

Nobody seemed too excited about FDX.

During an AAPL discussion, Sully basically shrugged that everyone already owns it, so who's left to buy it.

Jon Najarian predicted a "great quarter" for NFLX based on "alternative data" (snicker) he's seen.

If Beijing would investigate Hunter Biden, we’d have a trade deal

On Tuesday's (10/8) Halftime Report, guest host Sully kept posing the good question of what if there's never a China trade deal.

Unfortunately no one gave him the right answer, which is, as long as there's a constant threat of higher and higher tariffs or delisting Chinese companies from U.S. exchanges, markets are not going anywhere. (Pete Najarian sort of veered that way when he pointed out the stock market is "treading water" since the U.S.-China trade war began.)

Sully floated the "BUG" trade, which he said is bonds, utilities and gold.

Steve Liesman joined the gang and suggested that President Navarro is far less interested in intellectual property rights in China than in bringing back all the manufacturing jobs there. Liesman said that when he heard Donald Trump's economic manifesto years ago (exactly when he heard it was unclear; Steve mumbled a bit), Steve decided, "This is a great plan for the U.S. economy in the 1950s. Uh, and they wanna go back there."

Rob Sechan contended that recession fears are "overblown," because "the consumer's just too healthy right now."

But Sechan admitted he's "slightly underweight" equities now.

Kari Firestone suggested a floor in the S&P when the multiple drops to 15.

Kari claimed AMZN is the best of the FAANGs because it's about the consumer. Jon Najarian pointed out that AAPL is about the consumer too.

Doc said X is "really close to a bottom," but he's not buying it now.

Stephanie Link said she buys the company line that Boeing will get the 737 Max back in the air "between now and (sic first 3 words redundant) the end of the year."

Josh Brown was saved for Wilf Frost's Closing Bell at Post 9. Brown pointed out the Dow is flat over 18 months.

Been a long time since we heard about what a great influence Gary Cohn is on the president

Talk about overpromising ... and underwhelming.

Judge opened Monday's (10/7) Halftime Report stating Steve Weiss is selling "in any strength" in the stock market.

But then Weiss clarified that "I'm not selling any more into it. ... Just some shaving here and there."

That's quite a market call.

Weiss got hung up on the market multiple and earnings season, like others (basically every day this program airs, with the exception of Jon Najarian) missing the fact people are dying to buy this market and are just waiting for a presidential all-clear and continuing to nibble even without it.

Weiss called Elizabeth Warren the "huge front-runner" (snicker) of Democrats.

Weiss said he's heard the "parallel" case of UBER as FB early in its time as a publicly traded company. But Weiss doesn't think the stock stories are the same.

Joe Terranova claimed he "actually made a small profit" on UBER and asserted that "if it gets above 35," everyone will be talking about jumping aboard. #momentumtradingalert

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Karen Finerman, striking in new black top, said, "Any progress on the China trade deal I think is really a head fake."

There’s a 4-letter word in the toolbox. It’s called ‘debt.’

On Thursday's (10/3) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss asked one of the show's longest-running, and easily most stale, questions.

Referring to Fed cuts, Weiss wondered, "If we go into recession, what's in the toolbox?"

Um, where do we start ... maybe QE5 (or whatever number we're up to), but more importantly, tax cuts everywhere ... Donald Trump sending $2,000 checks to every household and slashing individual tax rates by 5 percentage points ... gasoline tax cuts ... infrastructure spending plans that would make FDR blush ...

Basically you'll see dollars coming out the government's ears.

And someone else will pay for it in 2040.

Meanwhile, Josh Brown contended the market is due for a lift, and Jon Najarian agreed. "I believe that a bounce is in the cards here," said Doc.

Joe Terranova kept saying there's an "NHL coach" who supposedly bought WORK because of Josh Brown.

Judge said Mark Mahaney is saying growth is "on sale."

Joe said, "Growth has been on sale throughout the month of August."

Mike Santoli said the stock market has been "metabolizing (snicker) all these issues that are now showing up in all the surveys."

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Karen Finerman said it "sort of doesn't make sense to me" to want a weaker jobs report.

Karen said if NFLX is forced to reduce prices to match competitors, "that's clearly bad ... that is just margin-chopping."

Karen wished a happy birthday to Lawrence Golub.

Jenny Harrington is
‘having a great year’

Near the top of Wednesday's (10/2) Halftime Report, viewers heard a bit of braggadocio from ... Jenny Harrington.

Yes, Jenny Harrington.

"I'm having a great year, yeah. I think we closed the quarter up 22% on the year," Harrington told Judge.

Meanwhile, Steve Weiss suggested CEOs previously had "fear of pissing off the president," not so much now.

Jim Lebenthal stressed that the consumer is a "lagging indicator."

Jim again mentioned "rational outcomes" (snicker) with respect to trade negotiations. (Note to Jim: If China would only investigate the Bidens, it would have a trade deal.)

Judge asked Weiss if active management is making a "big-time" comeback. Weiss explained that "it's actually continuing to go the other way."

"There's not a huge appetite for hedge funds" among family offices, Weiss added.

In the show's funniest comment in perhaps months, Weiss, who was on fire Wednesday, said Tom Lee is "bullish all the time" except for "1 time in the last 50 years."

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Karen Finerman revealed, "I'm a little more worried today, but I'm starting to see there's a lot more fear in the market, right," adding things are looking "a little panicky" and that "now is not the time to buy volatility."

Oh joy, direct listings

Judge shuffled through a humdrum episode of the Halftime Report on Tuesday (10/1).

Joe Terranova contended that sentiment is much different than this time last year; "There is this fear, there is this caution, that the same exact (sic redundant) thing is going to happen once (sic redundant) again," Joe said.

Now there's a great strategy — expecting the same exact market activity as a year ago.

There must be something to it, because Mel kicked off the 5 p.m. Fast Money with a discussion on that very topic (more on that below).

Pete Najarian warned about Chipotle's P.E. ratio.

Joe said he is "disappointed" in how DIS is trading. (But it's got STREAMING now!!!!!!! GOTTA OWN DIS ON THE DAY IT LAUNCHES A STREAMING SERVICE!!!!!!)

Joe and Judge agreed that the discount broker space (is that what they're still called? Someone used the term "asset managers") is a "race to the bottom."

Joe said the possible "resolution" of stock uncertainty for online brokers is that maybe it's time for E-Trade and TD Ameritrade to merge.

Judge was all excited about a venture capitalist confab about improving how Silicon Valley startups go public (Zzzzzzzzz).

"I'm nervous," said Karen Finerman on the 5 p.m. show. "I'm way more nervous now" than in 2018, Finerman added.

But as Dan Nathan suggested that Q4 2019 can be just like Q4 2018, Finerman conceded, "We haven't seen credit markets start to fall apart. At all."

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