CNBCfix - Fast Money Review

[CNBCfix Fast Money Review Archive — May 2021]

‘I don’t think we’re at 2%’
by year-end

Brian Belski, the star guest of Friday’s (5/28) Halftime Report, made a comment that surely will raise a lot of eyebrows among CNBC guests, stating “the smartest person in the room is the Fed,” so if the Fed says we’re “transitory,” he’s going to believe it.

Sounding a lot like Mike Mayo, Belski said his highest-conviction play is “financials, financials, financials.”

Belski even made a rate call: “I don’t think we’re at 2%. I don’t think so, by the end of the year.”

Someone else liking banks was Josh Brown, who opened by telling Judge he does think the market takes the next leg higher, sensing a “fairly diverse cross-section” of stocks and not just the FAANGs lifting the market. Brown said the XLF is in a “super-bullish setup for next week” and pointed to the ACWX.

Stephanie Link and Jason Snipe also expressed enthusiasm for the market (Snipe mentioned buying TWLO and SHOP). But Grandpa Jon Najarian cited “highest PCE in 2 decades” and highest gas prices since 2014 and thinks the stock market will only “muddle through the end of the 2nd quarter.”

Judge noted several “meme” stocks had caught fire this week and expressed surprise that Doc was in some of them. Doc mentioned that it’s a “combination” of HeatSeeker and … apparently something else that he never explained. Making the show’s only mention of CWS, Doc explained how the options had even bigger gains than the stocks! (Some people won the lottery yesterday too!)

Nobody seemed to care about Boeing’s 787 issues.

Josh Brown said he finds the term “meme stock” to be “somewhat disrespectful,” given the amount of employees at these companies.

Brown said he got “really excited” at the chance to buy ether last week after a big drop.

Engine No. 1 feels like
it’s getting hosed

Leslie Picker and Judge and David Faber opened Wednesday's Halftime discussing Charlie Penner and Engine No. 1's shareholder showdown with XOM; apparently XOM can call people after they've voted and ask them to change their mind and make the election as long as it wants. (Good thing that wasn't allowed in November 2020 we hope.)

Leslie asked if there even is a "downside" to giving shareholders more time to vote and whether it can lead to a more "holistic" (snicker) result. Penner said no way, the company is calling people who have already voted and asking them to change.

Judge claimed no matter the outcome, it's still a "watershed moment of sorts" because it shows a firm as small as Engine No. 1 "can still push a company like that around."

Judge asked Pete Najarian, who's long XOM calls, if he cares about the outcome of this. "Not really," Pete admitted.

Joe Terranova tried to get a word in about XOM, but Judge actually refused to let him. (Seriously.)

Tony Dwyer calls Judge ‘Buddy’ (while growing tired of being cross-examined on his shaky recent market calls)

During his endless A Block, Judge on Wednesday's (5/26) Halftime brought in Tony Dwyer and immediately demanded, "Where's your 10% correction?"

Tony claimed it's happened in "some of the Nasdaq names" and "SPACs" and claimed the market is "still in this extreme overbought (snicker) condition." Then he claimed it's a "rolling correction." (Remember a few years ago, when we heard about the supposed "rolling bear market" (snicker) about once a week?)

Dwyer said the "No. 1 question" he and Judge are getting is, How can the 10-year be at 1.55%. Tony's answer is, "There's more buyers than sellers."

Judge demanded to know why the Nasdaq isn't "a lot higher" given the 10-year is at 1.55. Dwyer shrugged that yields "haven't really changed in the last month and a half."

Judge actually got kind of chippy and frankly scoffed at Dwyer's references to 2008 and 2000. "The reaction is the same every single time! It's never different," Dwyer asserted.

Judge said, "I like how everybody tries to use these historical references when we're coming out of a period that basically has no historical reference." (Or as this page likes to put it, A sample size of 1.)

Tony tried to claim each situation is "unique" going in, but "the response by the Fed and the fiscal stimulus is always the same." (Um, that's a stretch.)

Steve Weiss added his 2 cents to the conversation, stating, "Something's clearly out of whack, and I think it's the 10-year."

Weiss tried to raise a ruckus over Frank Slootman's pay package when Jim Cramer showed up; Judge cut it off.

Eventually, Tony said he'd had enough. Judge said they like having Tony on because "you keep it real" and is willing to mix it up. But Tony complained that at some point, the mixing it up "takes over the show instead of the information."

Judge responded, "Tony, if you call for a 10% correction, and (sic grammar) we're gonna hold you accountable. If that doesn't feel good, I'm sorry. But that's the way we roll."

"Buddy, that has nothing to do with it," Tony said, affirming his correction call from April. "I'm not changing it in any way, and I don't know how somehow you brought it to that level."

"All right, that's all good," Judge said.

Some people still believe that P.E. ratio is an indicator of stock direction

It's such an important statement, it needs to be right at the top.

Josh Brown on P.E. ratios: "Is it possible that this metric ... is it possible that this isn't really something that tells me ANYTHING about A) whether or not a company is appropriately valued in the market and B) where it could be going in the future?"

That was the signature comment of Tuesday's (5/25) Halftime Report. How did the conversation get to that point?

Jenny Harrington, a chatterbox, had opined on valuations. Brown asked Harrington a question about that, then started to talk before Jenny could answer. Judge took time to sort it out, leading to Jenny stating, "Relative to history, the valuations are very extended, even after the past 8 months where value's had a big run."

Brown countered, "P.E. ratio might've been one of the most useless, uh, measures of forward performance over the last 10 years."

Well, he could've said "100" instead of "10."

Honestly, other than people who like to wag their finger at Nasdaq stocks, we have never seen an ounce of proof on CNBC or elsewhere that P.E. ratios mean ... anything.

They are definitely an effect. Not a cause. An effect.

If P.E. ratios predicted anything, someone would be writing gobs of algorithms to take advantage.

No one is, to our knowledge.

Did P.E. ratios predict the 1987 crash? No, that was portfolio "insurance."

Did they predict the 2008 financial crisis? No, that was leverage in mortgage bonds.

Oh, so they supposedly predicted March 2020. Fine. Go short TDOC and boast about it. Get a big score (maybe) once every 21 years. (This writer has no position in TDOC.)

Brown said AMZN has gone from 850 times trailing earnings in 2014 to today's 60 times.

Responding to Brown, Jenny said there are "dozens" of valuation metrics (um, lessee, as far as we know, price to sales and price to earnings ... maybe Jenny overanalyzes these things) and "for the sake of ease on TV, we refer to P.E.," but she insisted, "Valuation always matters."

Really. Please explain how the valuation had anything to do with the trajectory of BRK-A, AAPL or GE in the last (pick a number) years.

(Or just avoid the Nasdaq stocks and feel "safer," like Gaga entering buildings with a pointless stamp on them in that commercial that airs 3 times every 15 minutes on CNBC.)

Liz Young chimed in, "I think we overly focus on valuations. They do matter in the long term. (Really. How?) I just don't think most investors have the stomach to sit around and wait for that long term to come true. (What does that mean? No one has had the "stomach" to hold AMZN for the last 10 years?) They matter over a 10-year period (how?), but they don't matter over a 10-day period, and they're a really tough thing to look at as a timing mechanism."

Judge redirected the conversation to MTUM (surprised it wasn't JOET). Josh said, "I do think that a momentum ETF by definition is the ultimate example of driving while looking through the rear-view, um, windshield. You're- you're basically buying whatever has just worked the most." (Bingo. That's Momentum Investing, which is touted by most stock investors on CNBC.)

Jim Lebenthal said of the MTUM, "It's very hard to say what's the tail and what's the dog."

Jim also said of himself and Jenny, "We run in the same sort of investment management crowd." (Wonder if that crowd spends a lot of time talking about P.E. ratios.)

‘Whoever’s saying 10%, just stop’

In other matters on Tuesday's (5/25) Halftime, Judge said Scott Minerd is predicting first a 10% pullback and then a bounce to S&P 5,000 "or possibly even higher than that."

Judge tried to question Jim Lebenthal's contention about earnings lifting the market higher. Jim told Judge to "stop" and "calm down" and asserted, "We're 1% from an all-time high on the S&P 500."

"This is not a market that looks like it's going down 10%," Jim said. "It just doesn't. Throw the 10% out. Let's not you and I argue, OK."

Judge said, "We're not arguing. I didn't say 10%. Minerd said 10%. Which Scott are you telling to stop?"

"Whoever's saying 10%, just stop," Jim said.

Liz Young had predicted "a repeat of this pattern" of alternating inflation fears and a pullback in growth, then a bounce-back in growth, which Young thinks will happen "2 more times," and that gains in the 2nd half of the year will be "very hard-earned."

"I think we're stuck for the next 2-3 weeks," said Jim Lebenthal. (But what do the P.E. ratios have to do with that?)

Josh Brown called LYV a "hundred-dollar stock minimum."

Judge and Leslie Picker spent a decent chunk of time (not in the A Block) trying to analyze Bill Ackman's investment moves. Josh Brown suggested that SBUX has "certain locations" that are in previously high-volume commuter areas that aren't going to see the same levels of traffic.

Judge conducted what proved to be a sleepy interview with "very bullish" Vinnie Viola.

Judge claims the Garden was ‘on fire,’ apparently wasn’t watching Phil Mickelson on the 18th

Monday's (5/24) Halftime Report was largely humdrum, the most exciting development being Tom Lee's renewed bullishness for spring/early summer.

Pete Najarian opened by talking his book about options in what frankly, to be completely honest, is a tiresome spiel. Judge told Joe Terranova that Pete and Shannon Saccocia, unlike Tom Lee, see a sideways market. Joe said he sees "a sideways market — with opportunity."

Judge revealed details of his weekend. "I was watching the Knick game, uh, yesterday, and ... you see the crowd at MSG. And it just- it felt like a metaphor for the entire feeling of coming out of this pandemic. Because MSG was on fire," Judge said.

Judge also pointed out that Pete bought calls in ARKK. Pete again thundered that he wants to be "specific," he wants to TRADE it and not OWN it, and so he owns the CALLS. (GOT IT????????) And then he bashed the "incredible" P.E. ratios of those stocks!!!!!

Mike Santoli contended, "The reopen trade really was- that's what November was- to March was about."

Courtney Reagan got a rare stint as guest host of the 5 p.m. Fast Money. Karen Finerman revealed, "I love my Peloton. I use it all the time."

Weiss: Being long bitcoin ‘is a Greater Fool Theory,’ it’s only ‘slightly better than tulip bulbs’

It was Weiss against the group on the subject of cryptocurrencies on Friday's (5/21) Halftime Report.

Judge said Steve Weiss sold his bitcoin exposure, "I don't know why you bought it in the first place."

Weiss said it was always a "small, speculative position" and that he's been clear that he "didn't believe in it."

"It's never gonna be a currency," Weiss stated, adding that "it's not a store of value" either. "So what you're betting on is a Greater Fool Theory. ... It's just another thing to invest in. It's slightly better than tulip bulbs."

Rob Sechan agreed bitcoin is "not a currency" but contended "bitcoin's a risk asset ... a bet on the blockchain platform." He said cryptocurrencies should benefit from the "network effect" that could be "very disruptive" to banks, much like what the Internet did to retailers.

Weiss tried to cut in that you don't need bitcoin for blockchain, interrupting Jon Najarian, who stressed, "Yes it is an asset class" that has value because of "scarcity." Najarian actually mentioned Janet Yellen as an "influencer" (snicker).

Sechan allowed that some cryptos could turn out to be "the AOLs" (snicker) of the blockchain system.

Bryn Talkington said she "took advantage" of the "huge" ethereum selloff.

Meanwhile, as for the stock market, Bryn stressed "there is not a playbook" for this kind of environment, so "we are dialing down risk."

On the other hand, "Money is literally free, it's staying free," said Steve Weiss, before trying to offer a nuanced view of the market. Judge said "I'm interrupting you on purpose," as opposed to all of those accidental times, wondering why "free" money isn't the "end of the story right there."

"Because it's not going to stay free," Weiss said, referring to the "Fred" (snicker) and then correcting himself.

Mike Farr contended, "The thing that's not transitory here is wage inflation, right. Those wages aren't coming back down."

Rob Sechan claimed GOOGL/GOOG is more exposed to the reopening trade than probably "any" other stock.

Jon Najarian offered a vote of confidence for Ford's electric-vehicle initiative. "I just signed up for the Lightning yesterday," Doc said.

Weiss trumpets making 3% in FB (a/k/a Disgruntled CWS investors start calling Jenny)

It didn't take long on Wednesday's (5/19) Halftime Report for Judge to question the first point Joe Terranova made.

Judge had introduced the notion, "No one's talking about it," but maybe Joe Biden killed the "golden goose" with "this tax thing."

Joe said he never bought into the idea of "Roaring '20s" and outlined the tax situation in the 1920s.

"I think 2021 Scott is very similar to 2010," Joe asserted, stating the market stalled that year after earnings in April.

Judge wasn't buying it, demanding, "We gotta wait for earnings again as the next catalyst??"

Joe insisted, "You had a very bad reaction to extremely positive earnings. That's exactly what happened in 2010."

Amy Raskin actually said, "We're in kind of the exact opposite of Goldilocks right now," citing data "missing expectations" while inflation is "exceeding expectations." Judge was practically aghast, asking "Where's all this inflation?"

"It's still surprising on the upside," Raskin insisted.

Steve Weiss dismissed the impact of bitcoin Wednesday. "I think it's a downturn in risk assets overall," Weiss said.

"I don't think the selloff is over yet," Weiss added.

But Joe said he disagrees with Weiss in the notion that bitcoin isn't weighing on the market; "Tesla has a correlation to bitcoin." Weiss said he agrees that bitcoin may affect "certain stocks."

Jenny Harrington said the stock market looks forward 6-9 months, and the Fed might mention "taper" (snicker) in June.

Mike Santoli said, "The market is metabolizing (snicker) this stuff in a- in a relatively reasonable way."

Jenny Harrington, who said "spanked" (snicker) a couple times, offered the day's CWS revelation, stating, "In the last 3 or 4 months, I've had a total different client base start to call me. And they are people who had the ARK funds and did really well last year."

Weiss claimed FB was a "trade" for him; he managed to make a (blockbuster) gain from 302 to 312 before going on to bash ... SATAN ITSELF ... THE TELADOC MULTIPLE.

Marc Lasry, who hasn't been on the show for a while, suggested he's OK with tax hikes, but advised the Biden administration, "Don't do things retroactively."

"Give people notice, and then it's fine," Lasry said.

Weiss said he bought more FDX and called it "one of the smartest industrial plays out there." He said the stock gets "no love," which prompted Judge to note that it's only "10 bucks off its high." Weiss said there's been multiple compression, not expansion.

Jenny Harrington touted CSCO. Weiss wasn't impressed. "There's always this wishing and wanting out there for these old dogs, like Cisco, and like IBM ... and Intel, to recover. But it's too difficult for their businesses," Weiss said.

Amy Raskin doesn't like CHWY.

CWS stands for Cathie Wood Stocks (not College World Series) (a/k/a it was Godfather Part III, not the original Godfather)

Monday's (5/17) Halftime Report was a bit of a blast from the past (no, not a recap of Anthony Scaramucci's "black-market" (snicker) economic landscape (see below)) as Jon Najarian started gushing about BTU, CNX, CLF and FCX, which made us wonder if we're back to Eric Bolling's Fast Money of 2007.

Doc said money has been going from CWS into those names.

Joe Terranova had started off the show by knocking the "high-beta names," such as PDD, COIN, PINS, adding, "They're not done correcting." But Tiffany McGhee is unfazed by owning some of those kinds of stocks, stating she's in it for the "long term" and the market's in a "transition period."

"I'm not in those stocks right now," said Jon Najarian, adding that the momentum "has been to the downside." (There you go. #MomentumTrading)

Judge spent a lot of time touting the opinion of the Morgan Stanley guy, who wasn't on the program but was promised by Judge to be on Closing Bell.

Jim Lebenthal got Judge's attention when Jim said of the Morgan Stanley guy, "During the 5 years that I've been working with him on the show," he has "generally been bearish."

Judge told Jim, "He's gonna rip you up."

Jim responded by asking, over the last 5 years, "Has it been right to be bearish?" He answered, "No, it hasn't been."

Mike Santoli was brought in to discuss the "black-market" economy deliver major forecasts on stocks and interest rates assess the market internals and said you can say there's a "reset" in sentiment for the past month, amid a "flurry of concern over inflation."

Santoli said the CWS have been "correcting for 3 months," and there are "fewer imbalances" in the market.

Joe Terranova claimed there's been "excessive leverage" in the SPAC space. Joe said he likes "logistics" stocks, "as it relates to moving goods."

Jim explained why he's been "nibbling" in TWLO with a "1% position" though "Joe's been getting out of it."

Judge for some reason invoked "The Godfather," telling Jim, "Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in."

Tiffany McGhee stressed that it's "super-duper annoying" that you can't watch The Food Network on Netflix; you need cable (specifically AT&T) for that.

Listen, Anthony begins every comment (at least 5 times) with ‘Listen’ (a/k/a The rise of ‘black-market jobs’)

Hopefully, the Federal Reserve was watching Friday's (5/14) Halftime Report, because star guest Anthony Scaramucci was suggesting that part of the reason the labor market's tight is because ... some folks are performing "black-market" jobs.

Scaramucci said that, unlike the narrative that's coming from some quarters, he does not think most people "would rather sit at home and collect welfare." Rather, Scaramucci said, "Some of them have cash jobs, off-the-books jobs, black-market jobs if you will, uh, and they're out there working."

That's curious; we didn't know there's been a boom in the black-market economy since the pandemic, especially given that states and municipalities can't wait to legalize marijuana and sports gambling fast enough.

Judge had begun the interview by asking Anthony what the "smart money" thinks about the stock market. Anthony actually didn't answer that question, instead apparently giving his own opinions on the economy, saying "I'm sorta in Liz's camp." (That was Liz Young suggesting the VIX might not have peaked for the year.)

Scaramucci outlined culinary economics to Judge. "I'm obviously in the restaurant business in New York; it's hard to find people at certain prices. And remember, if you're paying $15 an hour for the dishwasher, well then the sous chef's gotta get $22 an hour," Scaramucci explained.

"I'm not super-worried right now," Scaramucci said. "You have had tremendous pent-up consumerism the last 15 months."

But Judge asked if Anthony is worried about a "near-term top" in bitcoin. Anthony said he "sorta" sees bitcoin as "somewhat anti-fragile (snicker) here."

Then, there was this: "There's a tremendous amount of demand long-term for bitcoin," Scaramucci said, and we have to wonder how any person at any given point in time can know that demand for something is "long term."

But Scaramucci allowed that there could be an "interregnum (snicker) period" in bitcoin right now.

Anthony did note that Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have a "combined age of 187 years."

As for stocks, Anthony said, "It feels like a Goldilocks situation." Hours later, on the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Steve Grasso echoed that sentiment, stating the 10-year below 1.74% "screams of Goldilocks."

The reason Judge couldn’t ask Tom Lee about his ‘bottom’ call is because Tom was booked for the 5 p.m. Fast Money

Judge opened Friday's (5/14) Halftime Report by stating that Tom Lee thinks the bottom is in, "at least for small caps and epicenter stocks," though not necessarily for technology, which is everyone's caveat nowadays, usually a clean sweep among Judge's panelists.

Friday, it was Rich Saperstein who took center stage about gloating about not owning the "infinity multiple, the aspirational multiple" tech names, as opposed to the FAANGs, which he said are in a "whole world of their own" and predicted they trade "very separately." (Usually, someone slams Teladoc and Zoom and Docusign, but that didn't happen this time.)

But as for Lee's call, Liz Young said she's not sure we've seen the 2021 "peak" in the VIX and predicted a "rough transition" from policy to fundamentals.

Pete Najarian said he's not sure the bottom's in for stocks and the top's in for the VIX. "That was a pretty brief pullback," Pete said, before adding an "each and every."

Judge though asked Pete about buying SNOW calls. Pete said it's a great company that was probably "way over, uh, uh, bought" in the 400s, "but I think you can trade it." (Translation: All the "infinity multiple" stocks suck — except the ones we own.)

Degas Wright said he's "moving to" energy, materials, industrials and financials from the tech giants. Judge wondered if all the mouths on the screen were "agape" at that positioning.

Liz Young curiously claimed, "Last year was the year of the market momentum. This year is the year of economic momentum." We thought last year was 1) The year of stay-at-home and 2) The year of the SPAC.

Rich Saperstein touted HD, stating "you can hardly get in there on the weekends."

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Tom Lee discussed his market call and cited as his top reason the CDC lifting pretty much all restrictions for vaccinated people. Then, he added, "India cases are rolling over," followed by "The market had a failed attempt at a crash" and finally the "huge rally under way for small caps."

Josh seems to question the tax impact of frequent trading

Brian Belski, the star guest of Thursday's (5/13) Halftime Report, contended, "I think we're in a big, giant secular bull market that started in 2009, 2010, and I think it's gonna go on for a while."

Nevertheless, Belski echoed Josh Brown's earlier comments (which basically goes like this, some tech stocks are AAPL and others are March 2000, though that's not the terminology they used), cautioning against painting tech with "one broad brush" and stressing that AAPL and the "Cathie Wood stocks" are "very very different."

Judge bluntly said that Belski is "all bulled up." Belski has a 4,500 target on his "23rd official forecast."

Belski credited Judge for a "wonderful job" this week discussing the "fits and starts" of the market.

And, Belski said, "I think earnings are gonna continue to go up and the multiple's gonna go down in Apple."

Meanwhile, Kevin O'Leary said this is a "classic, garden-variety correction, healthy."

Jon Najarian pointed to the VIX surging from 16.50 to 29 and explained that when volatility is cheap, he gets into calls, and when it spikes, he gets out of calls, buy stocks and sells "fat premiums."

Josh Brown cut in to ask, "What are the taxes like on that?"

Doc said "it depends" and said he's trading in tax-deferred accounts but conceded it would be "short-term capital gains" for others.

Najarian also echoed the CNBC Slogan of the Month, asserting, "More and more people will go back to work. Right now it's a hard time getting people to go to work."

Kevin O'Leary stated, "I'm really unhappy that people are (sic) already employed are getting checks from the government and I have to compete against them, it's crazy."

Nobody took issue with that, but someone noticed when O'Leary contended, "You know you're gonna get slaughtered on fixed income."

"You're not gonna get slaughtered on fixed income," Josh Brown countered.

"I think you are," O'Leary insisted.

"Based on what?" Brown demanded.

"If there is any inkling of inflation, you're gonna get slaughtered," O'Leary said.

Brown offered historical data of rising rates from the 1940s to 1980 and said that the worst annual return "was less than a 5% drop." At that point, Judge cut off the debate to get the "last word" from Brian Belski, who said "the stock market is a market of stocks."

Judge brought in Ken Squire and noted it's "astonishingly" been 8 years since Ackman vs. Icahn, which Judge for some reason dubbed a time of "peak activism," even though it was just 2 rich guys complaining about investing with each other and recapping which favorite Italian restaurant they dined at.

Squire said SPACs will be "bread and butter" for activists because many have "horrible corporate governance."

Doc said July 60 calls in PHM were getting bought and that June 57 calls in LVS were popular. (This writer is long LVS.)

What happened to Judge’s report about the top being in Sept. 2, according to Einhorn?

Judge opened Wednesday's (5/12) Halftime Report by curiously showing a tweet from Liz Young (who wasn't on the show) asserting that the Fed and the market have differing ideas about "transitory" inflation.

Steve Weiss said he agrees with that statement "exactly," adding the market will "lead" the Fed.

"I went to order a bicycle yesterday, they told me November. November '22 is when it's gonna come in," Weiss said.

"I'm not gonna say we're in a bear market, but we're definitely going into a correction," Weiss said.

Yes, we're in OMIGOD INFLATION'S OUT OF CONTROL!!!! land for apparently the near future. #NasdaqCompositeunder13,000=gift

Weiss told Judge that he exited FB and BA. "You don't hang on to trades in this kind of market. So I'm out of those," Weiss said.

Judge hectored Jim Lebenthal over selling ORBC. Jim said he's going to "redeploy" the cash, perhaps in names such as TWLO and ROKU, because, as he said earlier this week, he thinks you "can actually value these stocks." (Translation: P.E. or price-to-sales ratios are 50 instead of 150.)

Jim added, "I'm not buying on a down day; it's just not- it's not good practice." That's interesting. Normally we hear Karen Finerman saying she doesn't want to buy on a day the Dow is up 500 points or sell when it's down 500 points.

Kari Firestone affirmed she bought PTON around 80, deciding that if she liked it at 100, she "loved it" at 80.

Eventually, the panelists revisited their favorite I-told-you-so subject, high-P.E. tech names.

"I don't think the time is now to go in and buy the ARK names or the cloud names," said Joe Terranova, mentioning the obligatory TDOC, ZM, TWLO and DOCU. (This writer is long ZM and DOCU.) Rather, Joe suggests staying with the "S&P 500, Dow industrial-oriented type of names."

After knocking Cathie Wood a day earlier on Closing Bell (see below), Weiss told Judge, "Cathie's brilliant. But she's put together a basket of stocks that I think is still very vulnerable at between 50 and a hundred times revenue. They're not goin' higher. They're goin' lower."

Short-term market directional call. Write it down.

Marko Kolanovic dialed in and said the market is "perhaps a bit oversold."

"I think we are probably at the end of this upset," Kolanovic added.

Jim said he'll "applaud" the people who made money on Hertz, but it's "not my cup of tea."

Kari said Hertz is "far to the right on the risk spectrum."

Judge brought in Larry Robbins, one of the winning HTZGQ investors, who said he got in because he recognized there's "rightfully a recovery for equity holders."

Joe Terranova closed by saying Bill Ackman is "undefeated in the restaurant industry." But what's Bill's record with pharma rollups?

Sully gives an opportunity to revisit this page’s past speculation about Halftime Report panelists’ favorite musical artists

Guest host Brian Sullivan on Tuesday's (5/11) Halftime Report happened to say that Grace Under Pressure is "probably Rush's 3rd-best album."

And that's all the artistic license we need.

This page got raked over the coals about a decade ago (gosh, hard to believe it was so long ago) when it had the audacity to speculate about what might be the favorite bands/artists of Halftime Report personalities.

We do think people got a chuckle out of it ... but we were also, effectively, figuratively, essentially, told by many who found our suggestions inaccurate to "get that (bleep) outta here."

We do know that affirmations afterwards included Guns 'N Roses for Pete Najarian, Coldplay for Joe Terranova and Talking Heads/U2 for (former longtime panelist) Patty Edwards. (As for Judge and Mel, we have no idea.)

The reason the mention of Rush — an outstanding band — is significant is because this page mistakenly guessed that it might be a favorite of one of the panelists, but we don't dare mention that panelist now so as to avoid refanning some old embers.

We happen to like Grace Under Pressure, though elite Rush fans would probably not call it 3rd-best. "The Enemy Within" is the best song, though "Distant Early Warning," which got the MTV play, includes a lot of notable 1980s references, including "acid rain."

But that's what makes a market.

And NO album collection — none — even if it's just one album ... is a bad one.

You go, Sully.

Pete says something revealing about options gambling (that nobody on the show ever questions)

On Tuesday's (5/11) Halftime Report, Pete Najarian gave an update on the unusual options activity he detected in NVAX and reported last week.

"Unfortunately, the call-buying that I'd seen on there was NOT right, and the stock pulls back, but the good news about that is, I could only lose what you paid for the options as opposed to the stock, where you continue to lose as the stock goes further down," Pete said. "So, um, I guess from that perspective, I feel OK about that."

(Sigh) This is the head-scratcher that makes no sense coming from someone as bright as Pete Najarian.

He feels "OK."

He says he feels "OK" because he only lost what he "paid for the options."

That sounds like a 100% bust.

(Sigh) Repeating ourselves for the umpteenth time ... We barely know algebra, but we do believe that, if you spend $1,000 on NVAX options that go to zero in a week ... you're worse off than if you spent $1,000 on NVAX stock that falls 25% in a week.

And oh yeah — if you're buying stocks or options solely with the intent of guessing 1-week moves, we think you'd have better results with the pitching lines at your nearest casino.

What are we missing here?

Steve Weiss says Cathie Wood is a ‘prisoner of her strategy’

The biggest fireworks out of the Halftime Report on Tuesday (5/11) came not during the actual Halftime Report but Closing Bell, when Steve Weiss was given the floor to assess the market for Wilf and Sara, and one of the subjects was Cathie Wood.

Weiss has determined that "Cathie's a prisoner of her strategy," but this year, the market is "finally distinguishing between what's pure folly, again, 100 times revenue, and what are real earners consistently through all cycles."

This site speculated at the end of last year whether Wood should, perhaps like Sandy Koufax, retire on top at a fairly young age. This is what she gets for not doing so. But it's way too early for Weiss to be calling this one. Cathie's got a few more big innings left.

Josh Brown: Inflation is attributable to stock market’s wealth effect

Some comments just get the Spider Sense tingling.

Josh Brown on Tuesday's (5/11) Halftime Report stated, "I don't have any direct holdings in oil companies. I don't wanna personally fund them with my capital."

Of course, we wondered, how is he "funding them" by buying the shares?

That would be true if he was buying stock from the company. In all likelihood, if he wants Chevron, he's simply buying from another stockholder who is selling some or all of his/her/its/their shares.

It reminds us of some of the curiosities of the movie "Wall Street," in which Gekko is supposedly making Teldar Paper "leveraged to the hilt" simply by purchasing stock from offshore accounts.

What Brown basically meant to say was "I don't want to personally profit from them" and/or "I don't want to help boost their share prices however marginally."

Regardless, he does think the sector had gotten "entirely too oversold" before the recent "snapback."

At the top of the show, Brown said the "most important thing" he was going to say on the program is, "All of the inflation that you're seeing right now is being driven by the wealth effect from the stock market."

Brown said people are remodeling their homes because "their 401(k) became a 601(k)."

Pete Najarian said he'd "rather be in the calls" than stock of LVS, which he thinks can go higher. (This writer is long LVS.)

Jim Lebenthal suggested that if names such as ROKU or TWLO come down another 10-15%, "You can not only trade them at that level, but you can actually be an investor." (That doesn't make a whole lot of semantical sense, but whatever.)

Jim said HD is fine, but he's not adding to it. Stephanie Link called NKE "just too expensive."

Jim said of GM, "I don't want them to put the dividend back in."

Steve Liesman cut in to report Lael Brainard is "sticking to the party line" on inflation being "largely transitory."

Judge has no idea how many episodes of the Halftime Report he has hosted

On Monday's (5/10) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova drew an interesting conclusion about the stock market.

"Who had the Dow Jones Industrials on May 10th of this year being the leading index domestically in the U.S.?" Joe asked. "Certainly not me. Certainly not a lot of other people."

"Why, I think a lot of other people- Why do you say that? Why do you say that?" Judge demanded. "I mean, we're- we're having the greatest economic boom in history. And it may last for a long time, we don't know. So wouldn't the stocks in the Dow, more cyclically natured, industrial-type stocks, more played towards the recovery and the reopening of the economy, why wouldn't they outperform now?"

"I think that's fair," Joe started to say.

"Well it's fact," Judge interrupted.

"Let me finish my thought," Joe continued, explaining that, given where the economy is now, he doubts that in January, "very many people expected the Dow, in this environment, would outperform small caps, the Russell 2000 index."

Joe concluded that it's "2016 all over again."

Joe said at the top of the show, "I'm gonna stay with my Alphabet trade," though he's "resigned to the fact" that AAPL and AMZN will "underperform."

Steve Weiss said, "I agree with Joe," but, "To me, this is the time to be nervous in the market," which would typically be the headliner for the day (but isn't, see below), because he could write "many book reports" with empirical evidence showing many tech names should be higher, and they aren't.

Weiss said he added to QRVO but cautioned against letting one's "ego" (snicker) overrule investing reality.

Jon Najarian said he "rolled down" but hasn't "exited" his FB trade, deciding, "There's just too much momentum to the downside." (#MomentumTrading101)

Judge and Jenny Harrington quibbled over INTC. Doc brought up PLTR and gave a lengthy speech about how he thinks Cathie Wood and Jenny are "brilliant," but Doc just can't buy "stocks that are going down like that." (#MomentumTrading101Again)

It was guest Adam Parker, who apparently has a new shop and hasn't been on the show for a while, who posed the question of the day, asking Judge how his show total compares with that of Judge Joseph Wapner.

Judge responded, "I think I have some time to go here."

Judge added later, "By the way, October of this year is our 10th anniversary."

Judge also said, "With weekends and holidays and all that stuff, I don't have an exact number in my head, but we can figure that out for sure."

While the whole exchange was rather amusing, we have to give Judge credit, because it's a good thing he doesn't know the number. Can you imagine if someone was vain enough to keep a chart somewhere, "Hmmm, next week is my 1,500th show"?

It would be one thing if he had an iron-man streak, as in, no vacation or days off, ever, but that's not the case, for Judge or anyone else in daily television.

Anyway. Meanwhile. Parker said he wouldn't be "nervous" now about stock exposure and that the "biggest problem" he has is high valuation.

Judge told Joe he was "somewhat surprised" that Joe sold UBER even though the stock got "creamed." Joe said he "bought the stock way too high" and assured, "One thing I will never do is take the knockout punch." (#MomentumTrading101Again) (This writer is long UBER.)

Judge decided to "underscore" that Joe used his UBER funds to buy FCX and LPX. (#MomentumTrading101Again) (This writer is long FCX.)

Jenny Harrington doesn't think there's much upside in STX, that's why she sold.

Pete questions, ‘Are we giving those incentives to stay at home’

Friday's (5/7) jobs report unleashed a healthy amount of skepticism about the expanded unemployment benefit.

Some of it seemed to be couched by alternative terminology.

On the Halftime Report, Pete Najarian opined, "The reality is this, that, you can go out anywhere in the country right now and it's very very difficult for everybody to be able to be in, in the employment area right now. Because of the fact that they're still in this mode of, maybe there's still some fear, but also the idea that 'Hey look, they're making money at home,' are we giving those incentives to stay at home. I mean, there's a lot of great questions here."

Nevertheless, Pete insisted, "This is one number."

Steve Weiss pronounced the jobs report an "anomaly." He said he'd add to cyclical exposure.

Bryn Talkington offered, "You have to trade for the market you have, not for the market you want."

Bryn said "I'm nervous" because "we are experimenting here with monetary and fiscal policy."

Pete noted high-multiple or no-multiple stocks have come down "dramatically," and "I don't think that's over."

Judge thought Pete bought LMT "today," but Pete said it was actually Monday.

Judge pointed out that "headliner" guest Jeremy Siegel said just last month that it's the "3rd or 4th inning" of the boom. But Friday, Siegel said we're "maybe in the 6th now."

Siegel said he disagrees with Joe Biden that unemployment insurance is "not having some effect" on the job market.

Siegel declared, "I believe in the next 3-4 years, cumulatively, we're gonna have 20% inflation. Prices gonna be higher 20% 3 years from now, 4 years from now than they are today." He added, "The bonds are gonna be the worst thing. Real assets are gonna be the best thing."

Interrupted by remarks from Janet Yellen, Judge noted afterwards that Yellen disagrees with Siegel on inflation.

Shannon Saccocia called NFLX "a long-term winner." Weiss said he got BA at 229; "how can you not buy it for a trade."

Karen Finerman: Yellen remarks didn’t meet Fed goal of ‘be clear’

In one of their best episodes in a long time, the 5 p.m. Fast Money crew on Tuesday (5/4) delivered an exceptional round of commentary analyzing Janet Yellen's remarks.

Guy Adami suggested Jen Psaki simply offered the company line as to whether Joe Biden agrees with Yellen; "I'm not even sure she knew what the question was about."

Karen Finerman said "the one thing" the Fed and Treasury want to do is "be clear," and "that wasn't what happened today." Steve Grasso opined, "I think that the Fed, Melissa, is, uh, perplexed still with no sign of inflation where they think they wanna have it." Grasso suggested Yellen was trying to "goose" the idea that "there's still inflation," though there's a "host of reasons" there isn't.

"I think we're still in a deflationary environment," Grasso concluded.

Later, guest Tom Lee called talk of inflation that would trigger Fed chasing just "noise."

Earlier on the Halftime Report, contrasting Jerome Powell's statements vs. Yellen's rate comments, Jon Najarian stated, "That mixed message is never gonna be popular."

"Everybody's talking about overheating," Rick Rieder told Judge on the phone, saying he got an email from Judge while on another call.

Rieder said a "risk" to the Fed's approach is that the "exit" may have to be "a bit more aggressive."

"I still love tech as an asset class," Rieder said.

"You're not supposed to reveal the booking process," Judge joked to Rieder.

Though the market ultimately pared the losses later in the day (this review was posted overnight Tuesday/Wednesday), Doc said 60% of unusual options activity is in puts; "it's the heaviest put-buying that we've seen across the board."

Viewers heard that Broadcom, "oh by the way," is trading at about 16 times.

Doc said he still likes TWLO and NOW; he said he tries to be a "singles and doubles hitter," which means with calls, he's selling one above the level he's buying.

Doc said he'd be looking to get back into CRWD. Josh Brown shrugged that CRWD, a stock he likes and is long, has been in a range since December. "You can't have a whole portfolio filled with these stocks," Brown cautioned.

We heard "total addressable market" a couple of times in regard to the cybersecurity market.

Judge delivers body-slam
to Fed critics

Monday's (5/3) Halftime Report included this interesting declaration from Judge:

"Didn't we learn our lesson already? Some of the same voices, by the way, who were out there in '08 and, '09, saying omigod, you're gonna have runaway inflation, because what the Fed is doing, we're printing all this money, the government's come to the rescue.' I'm still waiting for that to happen. And now you're getting the same voices coming out again, talking about inflation being here to stay, and, 'Oh, the Fed doesn't know what it's talking about, how can you call this "transitory" or "temporary."' Didn't we already learn our lesson?"

Wonder if anyone on the 5 p.m. program was listening.

Jim Lebenthal said he feels like Judge is "violently agreeing" with him.

Jim said a lot of people say the market is "overdue" for a correction, but that's just "another meaningless statement." Jim predicted a market that's "sideways" and "kind of bored" for a few weeks.

Ranking up there with the "overdue" sentiment is Savita Subramanian's latest note; Judge said Savita's cautious "because nobody else is."

Meanwhile, while he's not buying the "overdue" argument, Jim was also taking aim at Wall Street cliches, saying he hates the "useless" adage to "sell in May."

"We're certainly not getting a catalyst from tech earnings," Jim said.

Judge agreed that the record shows stocks in recent years typically rise in May.

Steve Weiss said the market's in a "period of digestion," and he was surprised to see AMZN close lower Friday after "phenomenal" earnings.

Weiss said he trimmed MU because he got in it for a trade and it "sort of didn't work out," always a fine reason for getting out of a trade.

Joe Terranova said the next move in the market hinges on "Global COVID trends," marked by higher yields; he said it's time to go back to a "cyclical orientation" (but nothing about the "beta trade" this time).

Judge noted Paul Singer and Cathie Wood have scooped up TWTR, though there's "not that much ownership on this show." Joe said the Singer buy is "far more important."

Weiss said Wood's TWTR buy isn't significant because it's not a "long-term" play; she could be out after a quick gain. He said the Ned Segal interview left him "less than motivated" to buy the stock.

Tiffany McGhee bought EL and SSTK though she said she's trying to avoid the "stay at home" and "reopen kinda" plays.

Jim said staples are not the "go-to sector" now. Joe said names such as MNST are "where the momentum is." But Joe said, "raw material costs are gonna continue to rise."

Tiffany said you "have to own" NFLX, and she'd look to buy on the dip. Weiss said VUZI is not in the "sweet spot" of the market now but to be "patient" and let the market give it a lift again. Jim said to buy some GM now but "save some dry powder" for after earnings.

Weiss touted MRNA for a Final Trade, while Joe said he got out of SGEN.

It all got a "good stuff."

Some AMZN analyst should come up with $5,750 on Monday

Friday's (4/30) Halftime Report was about as anticlimactic as the last day of the NFL Draft, as Judge struggled to find anything new to say about tech giants.

Judge revealed that a Susquehanna analyst has a $5,500 target on AMZN. Steve Weiss said, "Clearly that analyst is looking for attention," using one of the "old Wall Street tricks."

Weiss said of tech earnings, "we've robbed from the future," but it's "somewhat emboldening."

Weiss did caution that a vaccine-driven "synchronized global economy" will lead to a "real acceleration" (snicker) in inflation that will prompt the Fed to go "earlier."

Pete Najarian said that just a day earlier, he observed the scene at Home Depot, Lowe's and Menards and noticed, "The parking lots are packed."

Weiss said the Street is missing the fact that SWKS is "more than just a phone story," adding its "total addressable market" (snicker) is "unbelievable."

Jon Najarian admitted his 65 calls in TWTR went out "worthless, total loss." Now he owns 56.50 TWTR puts. He suggested using a stop of 52.40.

Pete said he just sold out of DKNG calls "for a loss" and for the earnings report, he'd play it using options because it's "too high risk" (snicker) to play it with stock. (Yes. Because owning the stock is somehow riskier than Doc taking a "total loss" on TWTR calls.) (This writer is long DKNG.)

Pete said NLY options "hit" on Friday; "I think the stock goes higher."

Brenda Vingiello touted AFRM. Weiss talked up BAC and GS. Speaking of GS, on Thursday's (4/29) show, Judge noted Goldman Sachs "threw in the towel" on its AAPL sell/83 and concluded, "It has to be frankly one of the worst stock calls in recent memory that I can think of." Jenny Harrington called AAPL "dead money for a long time."

Also Thursday, Jon Najarian said, "I think bitcoin finishes the year over a hundred thousand this year Judge."

Judge opines on NYC
restaurant scene

Chatting with Rich Eisen on Wednesday's (4/28) Halftime Report, a day before the NFL Draft, Judge indicated the first 2 picks are set "in stone." (He could've asked Eisen, "Why does Chris Berman reveal the pick before the commissioner gets to the podium," but that question evidently wasn't in Judge's repertoire.)

Judge opened by asking everyone for thoughts about AAPL's pending earnings (as if anyone knows in advance what they will be).

Jon Najarian said he's "not even a little bit" nervous about the AAPL report.

Jim Lebenthal though said "I'm a little nervous" about AAPL, partly because it's been sideways for a week. "Honestly, the price action's been a little sloppy," said Jim, who predicted a price over 150 this summer.

Kari Firestone suggested AAPL has "less of a likelihood to get hit hard" than any other FAANG stock.

Jim gushed about QCOM for the long term. Doc agreed and said "This side of tech has pricing power like crazy," adding NVDA and AMD.

Joe suggested MSFT is "about to see" a correction, but if so, "I would add more to my current position." Joe even threw Judge off by the end of his comments; "he sounded like he had a few more words to get out there," Judge explained.

However, Joe said he won't buy PINS on the dip.

Jim said he bought more BA on the dip. Jim said the shares keep taking "3 steps forwards (sic) and 2 steps back."

Doc said PBI and HOG calls were popular.

Kari Firestone predicted "the quarter will be fine" for AMZN. Joe predicted AMZN joins the Dow in favor of INTC.

Judge thought the 21 Club might've closed; Doc confirmed that it did.

On Kelly Evans' Rapid Fire, Steve Grasso said he's looking for $180 on AAPL.

‘If anything, I would tell you the risk is to the upside’

In what has to be characterized as overstatement, Jim Lebenthal opened Monday's (4/26) Halftime Report saying "a lot" is riding on this week's tech earnings and the reaction to them, an "incredible tell on where investor sentiment is."

Liz Young predicted "better news than everybody's expecting."

Steve Weiss said he went back into FB calls — which expire Friday — when the stock dipped below 300.

Joe Terranova suggested, "Maybe everything just participates," a "low-probability scenario" that nevertheless still "could unfold."

Weiss predicted SWKS "goes a lot higher than where it is (sic last 4 words redundant)."

Judge brought in the day's "headliner," Keith Banks, who said, "If anything, I would tell you the risk is to the upside, not the downside."

Judge asked Keith about "Biden tax policy (snicker)." Banks said it's a "great question," and it is something for the market to "process" and "worry about" (snicker).

Jim said one risk to BA is "some new massive charge that none of us are looking for." Weiss said, "I added this morning significantly" to the stock and has a "pretty monster-sized position," though he's not sure he'll hold it into the earnings report.

Jim said the downgrade of CLF by KeyBanc was a "terrible call," pointing to the stock's gain on the day.

On the 5 p.m. show, Melissa Lee asked Karen Finerman for an opinion on TSLA, as if viewers couldn't guess what that opinion would be.

Notable moments in sports: Maris’ name booed on Mickey Mantle Day in 1969

Sure, we'll get back to Halftime Report/Fast Money in a moment.

For now, indulge this page in a moment of sports nostalgia, the kind we used to crank out on occasion to break up a little of the stock-market monotony (AND to connect with all those viewers, spectacular viewers, and you know who you are, who totally get the pop-culture references of decades past from the Halftime/Fast Money crew).

Recently it came to our attention that the official retirement ceremony for Mickey Mantle — Sunday, June 8, 1969, at Yankee Stadium, of course, on a day of a doubleheader with the Chicago White Sox — included short tributes to Mantle's Yankee teams, but not all of them (he played from 1951 through 1968 and announced his retirement during spring training, March 1, 1969), just the ones through 1964 ... because the ones afterward aren't exactly fondly remembered by Yankee faithful who, as you'll see in a moment, want to believe The Mick's career ended in '65.

DiMaggio was on hand to present a plaque. For whatever reason, the Yankees decided to introduce a dozen former Mantle teammates, about one for each of the seasons, along with a brief description of each season and Mantle's performance.

Obviously ... hoo boy ... 1961 figured to be tricky. In a perfect world, Maris would've come sprinting onto the field in sportcoat to thunderous cheers.

Instead, after Yankee announcer/emcee Frank Messer (pictured above) announced '61 as the "Year of the Home Run" and explained that Mantle and Maris "alternately led" in the homer race and then acknowledged "Roger eventually setting the new record of 61" ... a noticeable amount of booing occurred.

Wow.

Robust cheers followed as Elston Howard was introduced as the 1961 representative.

There are a lot of famous controversies in sports, but the '61 Yankees has to be among the strangest. Mantle and Maris were friendly and never rivals. To the fans, quite simply, the wrong guy won. It should've been a blueblood, not a johnny-come-lately on his 3rd team. A lot of Yankee fans undoubtedly would've handed the 1961 Series to Cincinnati in exchange for a different outcome in the home run race. Seriously.

Oh, about that tribute. It was actually the 2nd one. Incredibly, the Yankees in 1965, believing Mantle's endless injuries might end his career, arranged Sept. 18, 1965, as Mickey Mantle Day at Yankee Stadium. DiMaggio was on hand then too, as were Mantle's wife and kids, as was Sen. Robert F. Kennedy. A special day had only been granted by the Yankees to 4 previous players, Gehrig, Ruth, DiMaggio and Berra. Perhaps the team was sending a subtle message to No. 7: "We think you're done, let's go out as close to the top as possible so we don't have to cringe through any more of this." The 1965 Yankees, 5-time defending American League champions, were suddenly on their way to a 6th-place finish. Instead of retiring, Mantle played through 3 more rickety years, including last place (in a 10-team league) in 1966.

Maris too would retire after the 1968 season. Maris, though, in his final seasons was still productive. Dealt to the Cardinals in December 1966, he started and played in two more World Series. 2 MVP awards, 3 World Series crowns, 7 pennants ... and the single-season home run record.

He could've done worse.

It’s been weeks or months since Weiss has talked about how ESG is maybe the fastest-growing trend he’s seen in his career

Friday's (4/23) Halftime Report produced a notable declaration of optimism. "I'm as bullish as I can remember me ever being Scott (sic awkward grammar)," said Jim Lebenthal, though Jim followed that "some snarky person" will claim that's a "contrary indicator."

Rob Sechan's "suspicion" is that profits will be "so much stronger than people expect."

Jon Najarian contended there was "an overreaction in the market yesterday." Doc made some really extended argument for exchange beneficiaries if Joe Biden actually sends capital gains rates through the roof. (And how many first-100-day initiatives are we up to by now?)

Doc said he bought bitcoin on the dip, he's "still a true believer."

Morgan Stanley's Chris Toomey was Judge's "headliner" of the day; Toomey said he's "focused" on some of the risks right now, including the notion we're reaching "peak economic data."

Jenny Harrington dialed in to say that for long-term INTC (Zzzzzzzz) investors, "The quarter was great."

Jim Lebenthal said that someday, they'll write a "Harvard business case study" about Lourenco Goncalves and CLF. (We thought they might do one about Joe's "beta" trade on JPM.) (See below.)

Doc predicted "major support" in SNAP around "the 56 level."

Tom Lee: ‘I think we’re done with the correction’

Judge on Thursday's (4/22) Halftime Report brought up recent thoughts from Scott Minerd, Tony Dwyer, Jonathan Krinsky and Rick Rieder.

But he countered those sentiments further into the program with a Tom Lee guest appearance.

Lee said the recent correction in a number of stocks seemed pegged to a renewed rise in COVID cases, which now "might be legging down in a big way," so he sees "another leg up" in stocks.

"I think we're done with the correction," Lee added.

Judge asked Steve Weiss about Lee's bullishness. "I disagree with a lot of what he said," Weiss said, pointing to Lee's touting of CLF and the VIX under 20.

Meanwhile, Kourtney Gibson said the "smart money" has been trimming.

Kourtney mentioned trimming a number of blue-chip names. Then she said, "I trimmed them just simply because of the amount of return that I received on those names."

(Which brings us to what's basically a weekly tip: Stocks don't go up or down because of Kourtney's, or anyone's, cost basis.)

Following up on Josh Brown and Steve Weiss, Sarat Sethi said, "It's time in the market, not timing the market."

Josh Brown, as he has often done, insisted, "There's no real evidence that growth investors are harmed by rising rates. In fact, the evidence, uh, is the opposite."

But Brown allowed, "There might be some truth to the idea that higher rates are harmful to valuations," so that may be a risk with a name like CRWD.

Judge said Weiss made "interesting" moves, selling UPS and adding to XPO. Weiss said he sold UPS to "add to other stocks." Weiss said he bought ERIC calls.

Weiss also said he's been adding BA shares on the recent pullback of the Calhoun extension/CFO departure, arguing the stock fell not because of the CFO announcement but because of the CEO announcement.

Kourtney Gibson said airline tickets are "skyrocketing." Kourtney and Sarat both touted DAL.

Weiss talked of how POAHY and VWAGY are better automakers than GM. Josh Brown defended the potential of Cruise, but Weiss said it's already priced into the shares.

Weiss touted a new buy, GMVHY, "so much cheaper than DraftKings."

‘Delusion’ identifier claims
victory on NFLX

In the category of "Told ya so" (Translation: Great trades revealed after the trade is over), Jenny Harrington on Wednesday's (4/21) Halftime Report said NFLX was "priced to delusion."

(It's always amusing when panelists gloat about 1 day's worth of trading activity.) (This writer has/had no position in NFLX.)

Nevertheless, Tiffany McGhee defended NFLX and said of Disney+, "I really don't see that as competition."

Jenny said "The Queen's Gambit" was "terrific."

Judge opened the show by asking Joe about stocks he has unloaded recently Pete Najarian how big of a problem is it if the FAANG names "struggle." Pete said it wouldn't hurt to have broader leadership, even "very very healthy."

Jenny Harrington added, "It's OK if FAANG takes a break."

"In general, the market's expensive," said Amy Raskin, who for as long as we can remember has not seemed to think this is a risk-on environment. Raskin said the market needs FAANG to participate to climb higher.

Judge said Scott Minerd sees a "major correction in the near term," including a $20,000-$30,000 decline in bitcoin. Minerd's opinion was making the rounds on CNBC throuhgout the day.

Tony Dwyer: ‘About 10%’

In a fairly sleepy Halftime Report on Tuesday (4/20), Tony Dwyer suggested the pullback (of some kind) will be "about 10%," citing "an extreme overbought tactical condition (snicker)."

Tony suggested taking more seriously the data than his opinion. But the most provocative comment of the dialogue came from not the data nor Tony but Judge, who said, "I don't get paid to know where the market, um, is- is going."

Then he said, "The thing I do get paid for is to- to badger Joe Terranova take the other side."

"Yeah it's windin' people up. You're awesome," Tony chuckled.

Josh Brown said whatever pullback is happening is good because it's happening to all the stocks that need it.

Jon Najarian pointed to leisure/reopening stocks and said they're down 10-20% in a week, a "pretty massive move."

Judge in the 7th minute said, "It definitely feels like investors are getting their rain suits on." (Translation: The market's crummy for a day and a half.)

Doc said of AAPL, "I think demand for their products is still quite high."

Translation: ‘Risk management’ = ‘picked a dog’ (a/k/a great moments in college football)

Treading water with the 2021 stock market, Judge opened Monday's (4/19) Halftime Report by pointing out the widening breadth and asked panelists, "Why do I feel like people are getting cautious now?"

We have no idea. We don't know why Judge feels that way or whether it's an accurate sentiment.

Bryn Talkington offered, "Right now, I'm cautious in the short term."

"The easy returns have been made," said Talkington, so "expect lower returns," because the market's telling us that "in spades" (snicker).

Steve Weiss said he agrees that "the easy returns have been made," and it's a "flight to quality" now.

"It's a question of where you are in the market, not if you're in the market," Weiss concluded.

Judge hectored Joe Terranova over selling PINS. Joe said he has pointed out the great metrics with the company in recent weeks. "But guess what? When a stock goes down 11% for no identiful- iable reason, and when it declines another 4% beyond that, I don't have the right anymore to extrapolate (sic phrasing) (snicker) this fundamental confidence. I have to focus on risk management," Joe said.

Jim Lebenthal said you have to look at "individual sectors" (Zzzzzz), not the market overall.

The star guest was Rick Rieder, who's a fine guest but got way too much time Monday. Rieder told Judge, "I still think this is the most exciting time for investing we've ever been involved with." He added "by the way" twice (but not with an "oh").

Rieder added that the market could "run up" another 5-10% "for sure."

Rieder said that if there's any bubble, it's in "high-quality assets."

Judge admitted to Jim, "It's hard to be overly negative in this kind of environment." Jim said he "completely" agrees with that but would get concerned if the Fed removed its "accommodative stance."

Judge asked Joe about getting his COIN order filled last week. Joe admitted, "I feel a little uncomfortable with the position," saying he got in at "3 and a quarter."

Weiss took a viewer question on CLF and said he's "staying with" the stock. Jim gushed about DIS "for the long term."

Judge asked Jim about the QCOM downgrade by Susquehanna. "I just don't get anything about this call," Jim said. Susquehanna is heard on CNBC maybe once in a while. When we hear "Susquehanna," we think about Zander Hollander's Strange But True Football Stories (or its sequel), which chronicled the curious 1965 move in which the president of Susquehanna University, Gustave Weber, who was also a clergyman and former referee and Austrian immigrant, installed himself as head football coach for the last 2 games of the season after the previous coach was fired/resigned (we can't remember, and even finding any information about this event on the Internet is a challenge). Susquehanna lost those last 2 games, but Weber was praised for his spirit. Susquehanna's nickname back then was the Crusaders; it is now the River Hawks. It is a Division III school. Check out those helmets in the photos above — that is a vintage 1960s college football uniform. And that coach whom Weber replaced? Jim Garrett, dad of Jason Garrett.

Amid a bit of a break, we did see Halftime/Fast Money from the end of last week. "I'm looking for the S&P to go to 4,500," said Steve Grasso on Friday.

If Joe put in a $325 order for COIN, he apparently got filled (a/k/a Leslie’s facial for Doc)

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (4/14) Halftime Report announced he'd buy Coinbase on Wednesday in the open market.

After a lengthy statement by Joe, Judge asked directly, will Joe buy it Wednesday. Joe said he'll buy it at "3 and a quarter or below area."

Jon Najarian said he's not buying COIN basically because of valuation, the "problem some of us have."

Reporting about Coinbase, Leslie Picker said that "over 90% of their trading volumes are done by retail investors." Doc said he's not saying Leslie is wrong, she's a "great reporter," but he thinks the institutional number in Coinbase is "way north of 10%."

Leslie later said, "The breakdown is actually, 95% of transaction revenue is from retail investors."

Doc explained how Coinbase works as both an exchange and broker. "Scott this thing is a behemoth," Doc asserted.

Jenny Harrington called the Coinbase valuation "illogical."

Joe Terranova said there's "a lot further to go" in FCX, citing Jeff Currie's "compelling" note on copper. Jenny Harrington agreed. (This writer is long FCX.) Jenny gushed about MPW cash flows and how investing in it was "just a normal process."

Mike Farr said he's never seen a "$5 billion beat" in a single GS quarter.

Doc said May 68 EBAY calls were popular. And he said July 35 calls in HWM got bought.

For Final Trades, Jenny offered SLG, Doc said PLBY, Joe said MAR and Mike Farr said PEP.

Judge questions Joe’s description of Joe’s investment strategy on every program

Judge on Wednesday's (4/15) Halftime Report quibbled with Joe Terranova about clarifying Joe's current investment thesis.

Joe said the Fed balance sheet is up 6% this year while the S&P is up 10½%, so expect a "pause" along with the Fed.

Joe then clarified that there will be a "point of reckoning" when the Fed indicates it needs to pause.

Later, Joe assessed the strengths of the Halftime Report. "I think what we do well on this show is, is, we- we- we communicate when there are times to kind of put your foot on the gas pedal and really accelerate. And I felt that that was the moment in March, uh, to do it."

Judge kept hectoring Joe about his market timing call regarding the Fed; at the 18-minute mark, Joe explained that at some point it "is going to experience a pullback," which will bring a "moderation" in asset prices.

Meanwhile, "We're not that cautious but we are waiting with bated breath," said Jenny Harrington.

Jon Najarian offered, "I think that it behooves us not to be in stocks right now but to be in call spreads and/or protective put spreads because you're setting a limit to how much risk you're taking on."

Then, from Najarian, viewers got this curious comparison of stocks vs. options: "When you buy stock, you have the whole downside of the company, when you buy that," Najarian added. "Right now, premiums are cheap."

(Translation: Options hawkers prefer to have a $5,000 gambit go to zero than watch a $20,000 stock position temporarily fall to $15,000.)

After Judge told Joe, "Jon told me not to be in stocks," Doc stressed that people should "be exposed" to stocks.

Jenny said, "Be particular about what you own."

Mike Farr offered the show's company line, warning against buying tech stocks that don't have earnings, but he said a lot of the FAANG names are "reasonably priced."

Steve Liesman delivered breaking news on comments by Jay Powell, who offers the same comments about every 6 hours these days, and Liesman reported that Powell said 2% won't be a "trigger." Judge said, "He might as well just introduce himself now on until something changes. 'Hi, I'm Jay Powell, and I'm dovish.'"

How does AGC Grab ya?

The star guest of Tuesday's (4/13) Halftime Report was Brad Gerstner, who just found a company (called Grab, from Singapore) for his SPAC that Steve Weiss was recently talking up.

Judge asked why AGC was down upon the big announcement. Brad said, "I don't spend a lot of time thinking about one-day movements."

Maybe not, but we expect Gerstner was spending time later in the day thinking about hourly or minute-by-minute movements as AGC surged past $15 in the afternoon and finished up nearly 10%.

Judge also played a clip of Jim Cramer and David Faber earlier in the day admitting they don't know what Grab has done to merit a doubling of valuation in 18 months. After a bit of a lead-in response, Gerstner told Judge it's had "dramatic growth."

In general, "We're pretty exposed to the market here," Gerstner told Judge.

Judge has run out of rising-rate-scaremonger stories to lead the program with

"It's really really hard, uh, to be losing money right now," said Josh Brown near the top of Tuesday's (4/13) Halftime Report. But he added that moments such as these often lead to a pause or even correction.

Brown said investors are sticking with more of the tech juggernauts rather than "less experimental companies."

"There's no change in liquidity," offered Stephanie Link, adding an "oh by the way" twice in regard to government spending and vaccinations.

Jim Lebenthal said he sees a "pretty benevolent situation going into earnings."

Jim hailed the breakout in AAPL in the last month.

Jim said he wants to be "helpful" in dispensing BA advice and doesn't want to hear about it being overpriced based on this year's earnings; "You have to look forward with this stock," Jim said.

Judge again mentioned Jeremy Siegel's "3rd inning," though he also said Tony Dwyer thinks we're "extremely overbought."

Judge said "some people are trying to spin" Powell's "60 Minutes" interview as "being hawkish"; we think Dwyer is among those "some people."

Stephanie Link bought PLAN, and Sarat Sethi sold KSU.

Dan Nathan gets better Uber service than Liz Young does

On Monday's (4/12) fairly humdrum Halftime Report, the most provocative comment of the day came from none other than Mike Santoli, who opined that investors are "pretty close to all in."

After Friday's (4/9) show, in which Judge pointed out the inflows into global equity funds are larger in the last 5 months than they were in the previous 12 years, nobody was really predicting a top.

Liz Young said the focus will turn from government policy to earnings. Steve Weiss said inflation and not earnings will be more closely watched, and referring to the VIX, he said the market's had "a lot of complacency."

But Joe Terranova questioned whether the VIX represents "complacency" or a "calm environment." (Tip to Joe: The VIX represents whatever the person talking about it wants it to represent.)

Curiously, Weiss contended, "Your biggest risk is the VIX going higher," even though the VIX is an effect and not a cause. But Weiss said the market can "continue to work higher" until September.

Weiss said he's positive on corporate taxation because Joe Manchin took a "very, very firm stance on this," and 25% is OK.

Star guest Dubravko Lakos contended that we can see a "somewhat more broader participation" of the market.

Lakos said 6 months from now, "if the Fed is talking about tapering (snicker)," then the multiple story "starts to change."

Judge sounded in disbelief that the Fed would talk about tapering "in the middle of summer." Degas Wright said he's "not even concerned" about rising rates over the summer and suggested "maybe 2022" until there's any Fed tightening.

Lakos told Liz Young that he'd "probably" say the market could handle 2.5% on the 10-year.

Midway through the show, Judge brought in Mike Mayo, who of course was going to tell viewers to buy bank stocks. Judge tried to play the heavy and suggest fintech names have more potential. Mayo indicated the Bulge Bracket is dabbling in fintech. "There's still more to go wth the catch-up trade for banks."

Meanwhile, Steve Weiss touted TPIC, "a great company" and "under the radar." Joe Terranova said he sold SCR after he "reached" for it and took a 15% loss, which he "normally" doesn't like because he wants to"mitigate risk at all times."

(We think by "normally," Joe means he wouldn't sell a stock down 15% without giving it more time.) (We think.) (Or else Joe means there are certain times when he likes 15% losses.)

Joe touted UBER and said he sees it "ultimately" in the 70s. (This writer is long UBER.) Liz Young said "sometimes it takes up to 10 minutes" to get an Uber in Manhattan. Judge cracked, "The nerve, waiting 10 minutes for an Uber."

Yet, on the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Dan Nathan said that in New York, "it's still like a 7-minute wait time to get an Uber."

Judge had to cut away from Weiss' Final Trade of MRNA on the Halftime Report, as Judge said he didn't ask for a "book report."

Late in Friday's (4/9) Halftime, Salesman-on-Steroids Kevin O'Leary reiterated that he thinks airlines are "broken" and only selling $250 Disneyland tickets. #we'llseehowlonghestickswiththatone (This writer is long AAL, UAL and SAVE.)

Jeremy Siegel is actually the exact opposite of how Judge described his market view (but Jeremy isn’t asked about Katy Huberty’s note or Joe Terranova’s ‘beta’)

Judge opened Thursday's (4/8) Halftime Report saying star guest Jeremy Siegel is "a little worried."

And just as we expected, Siegel immediately protested he's not really as worried as Judge indicated. In fact, Siegel said, "Enjoy this ride; it's gonna- it's gonna keep on going," perhaps even to the "end of the year."

Good teaser, though, Judge.

Siegel's most curious comment was "Honestly ... Powell is playing the game with Biden now because he wants to be renominated February of next year." After that, Siegel asserted, Powell can be "much tougher on inflation (snicker)."

"Oh come on, Professor," Judge said.

Steve Weiss said he'd "bet against" Powell doing things to keep his job; "We don't even know if he wants it."

Judge briefly cut away to where Sara Eisen was questioning Jerome Powell and others at that IMF or World Bank event (or whatever it was). After Powell yielded to someone else, Judge cut in and heard Jeremy Siegel offer, "I have never heard a Fed chair so dovish."

Judge sounded flabbergasted at that observation, even though, as far as we remember, no other Fed has taken rates to zero, so is it any surprise this one's the most dovish?

Josh Brown said he doesn't think he'd "recalibrate" a portfolio "based on any one comment from, uh, Jay Powell," though he said Siegel's take on Powell "sounds about right."

Siegel closed saying we're in the "3rd inning of the boom." (So much for Judge's opening attempt at a warning.)

Steve Weiss said CRM is "like a rollup at this point," but MSFT is a far more appealing stock. Josh Brown said he prefers CRWD to CRM though he thinks CRM is an "amazing business."

Judge led panelists through a pointless discussion of Laura Martin's ranking of tech stocks.

Joe uncorks loopy ‘beta’ trade on JPM

Judge opened Wednesday's (4/7) Halftime Report by discussing Wedbush's "really stunning" call of tech gaining 25-30% from now till year-end.

Joe Terranova, before he got sidetracked by a bizarre beta trade, shrugged that Tom Lee made the same call "several weeks ago."

Judge said that "with all due respect to Tom Lee and some others ... NOBODY's called for 25-30% gains from here forward (sic redundant)."

"Not all tech is going to rise like that," said Steve Weiss, though he does think 25-30% is possible in some names, "absolutely." He said the FAANGs need a "booming market" to get to 25% this year.

"I think it's a little aggressive," said Kari Firestone, adding she'd consider 15% "reasonable."

Jim Lebenthal said he's looking for 20% returns but that 25% is possible. Jim cautioned about "taxes coming out of, of uh, the Biden administration," but he said we won't really know until fall, so he won't "kvetch" about it. Jim also reiterated that the rate story is "losing its punch."

Jim said SNOW, ZM and PLTR are "overpriced." (This writer is long ZM.)

Judge marveled that Jim is adding to AAPL for the 2nd time in the last 4 to 6 weeks.

Star guest Jonathan Krinsky doesn't see much more than S&P 4,100. Judge pointed out people are talking about "Goldilocks." Krinsky said that's the point he's making, it's nothing but good news and that's the "nirvana" trade already baked in.

Krinsky said there could be more "churning" and that the S&P 500 could still be at 4,100 in 3-4 months. Judge questioned that, but Krinsky pointed to DE trading 50% above its 200-day.

Steve Weiss said he bought VIAC, as well as AGC, "a bet on Brad Gerstner."

Joe Terranova sold ALK, which he said was a "rental," apparently because of "awful" price reaction to a positive Morgan Stanley note. Jim Lebenthal said he's sticking with ALK.

Judge said he doesn't "understand" why nobody on the panel owns JPM while they do own other financials.

Steve Weiss said he thought BAC was better (he referred to the CEO as "Brian") and that he didn't know where the "marginal buyer" of JPM would come from.

Kari Firestone made the case for PYPL.

Then, things went off the rails when Judge asked Joe, "Why Goldman and Morgan Stanley but not JPMorgan."

Joe explained that "it's about beta," suggesting he'd add to JPM if there's a "moderation in the velocity for the move in Treasury yields."

Judge looked confused at the notion of looking at JPM so "differently" than other big banks. Joe said that's what he's doing. Judge said, "That's not how the sector trades though." Joe said the rate rise only began recently, "I'm sorry, I respectfully disagree with you."

"OK," Judge finally gave up. "I'm just lookin' at the numbers."

Joe said he expects CMG to reach an all-time high. Judge jokingly asked where it falls on the "beta spectrum."

What happened to Toni? (a/k/a Katy Huberty’s first note as No. 1 analyst doesn’t exactly knock anyone’s socks off)

Judge tried to impress panelists on Tuesday's (4/6) Halftime Report with the latest AAPL note by new No. 1 analyst Katy Huberty, yet no one was exactly in awe.

"I don't really think she's saying anything," said Josh Brown. "There's nothing in here."

"I was sort of confused by the note overall today," said Stephanie Link.

"I was quite confused as to the purpose of the note," agreed Sarat Sethi, "but then sometimes you realize that, on the sell side, you've got to get some material out."

Judge said "the vibe I get" is that everyone on the show is "dismissive" of the note.

Nevertheless, "I don't think she's wrong at all," said Jon Najarian, predicting the stock will "meander a bit."

‘Sucked’ heard during Halftime

On Tuesday's (4/6) Halftime Report, Phil LeBeau reported on GM's battery initiatives.

In what didn't sound like a whole lot of conviction, Josh Brown said he'll own GM stock "for as long as it's in an uptrend."

Sarat Sethi said he's owned GM for 5 years and that it's been "dead money" for the first 4. "They don't need, they're not dependent on the capital markets," Sarat said. (A while back, they were dependent on the federal government, but whatever.)

Stephanie Link said that in the last 6-8 months, you could "throw a dart" at any automotive stock and make money.

Brown said gold stocks have "sucked" despite a great environment and that the GDX since 2006 is a worse investment than a savings account.

Brown suggested AAPL is such a huge portion of BRK's investment portfolio that BRK has to do trimming from time to time.

Jon Najarian said it's a "great time" to accumulate RKT. Touting WYNN, Doc said "Vegas is raging right now."

Gotta give Judge credit for a good closing quip about Josh Brown's "life jacket."

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Guy Adami tried to pin the Morgan Stanley and (former employer) Goldman Sachs actions regarding Archegos on the Fed's ZIRP, asking Sheila Bair how much of the "brunt of the responsibility" does Fed policy bear. Sheila gave exactly the answer you would expect.

Tom Lee discussed the ‘face-ripper of a rally’ on the 5 p.m. show

Evidently, Monday's (4/5) surge was enough to put a cork — for a day — in Judge's usual Halftime Report refrain about whether rising rates ("I'm saying, what does it MATTER what the reason is, as long as rates are rising ...") will sink tech stocks.

(Unfortunately, Steve Weiss wasn't on hand to explain how well it worked to take a break from the market for a couple weeks, as he advised 3/29.)

Pete Najarian said the market looks good, but everything he's seeing is "extremely short term," so "don't get too comfortable." (As opposed to all those times when panelists on this program advise people to get comfortable.)

Nevertheless, both Pete and Joe Terranova seemed to think the market is in a "sweet spot."

Joe said the "formation of the market" is as "perfect" and "sunny" as investors could want.

Joe said that Janet Yellen's remarks indicate "globalization is back," and he suggested tariffs could be relaxed.

Judge at one point claimed, "I totally get the fact that there's a lot of optimism, uh, in the market." Judge, who enjoys dropping sports references, didn't discuss the NCAA Championship scheduled later in the evening. #differentnetwork

Steve Weiss on Monday said to ‘come back in a couple weeks, a couple months’ — S&P up 61 points since

On the last trading day of a holiday week, it sounded like Thursday's (4/1) Halftime Report crew was ready to pack it in until Monday.

Steve Weiss claimed that succeeding in the market will take "more stock selection going forward," which may or may not mesh with his advice from just Monday.

Meghan Shue said GDP could be "as high as 9."

Jim Lebenthal offered that "the punch from rising interest rates is gonna wear off a little bit."

Judge said Jim seems "overly positive" on the market, "yet I don't see you making a whole lot of moves in the market anticipating what you're talking about, are you?"

"I've already done it," Jim said, adding, "I feel really good right now."

Judge brought in Keith Meister, who's on to his 2nd SPAC (remember the life sciences one of a month ago or so?) (what happened to CenturyLink?) and thinks April and May could be the biggest growth of any April and May in history.

Jon Najarian talked up call activity in QCOM (Zzzzzzzzz).

A peaceful weekend to everyone.

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