CNBCfix - Fast Money Review

[CNBCfix Fast Money/Halftime Report Review Archive — July 2023]

‘Who really cares’ about the Morgan Stanley strategist’s comparison to whichever year this feels like

Guest host Frank Holland on Monday's (7/31) Halftime Report said Mike Wilson has "apologized for being too bearish already."

Joe Terranova said that Mike's comparison of 2023 to 2019 is "somewhat fair."

Steve Weiss, though, said, "Who really cares, right. ... I don't think most investors even know what he was talking about."

But Weiss did call Mike "a great thinker."

Weiss said the stock market is "absolutely overbought." But he said the economy "seems to be re-engaging," including China "gettin' there now."

Weiss nevertheless grumbled that "it has been unreasonable market expansion."

Anastasia Amoroso said the rally seems "justified." Anastasia said it's an "upside" for stocks today "if the AI hype actually materializes."

Joe again stated that we're "technically overextended," which is as much of a reason for a correction for anything. But, "We are seeing the evidence that the earnings snapback is coming, it's real," Joe said.

Weiss: ‘Oppenheimer’ was ‘tremendous’

Joe Terranova on Monday's (7/31) Judge-less Halftime Report cautioned that energy prices are "moving uncomfortably higher."

Later on in the program, Joe said energy is "beginning to reignite itself," and he agreed with Goldman's upgrade of CVX.

The JOET owns ON. Joe said it's one of his favorite semiconductors, "reasonably valued" with a "moat" that prompts investors to buy the dip.

Steve Weiss said of AMZN, "Cloud funds the entire company."

Weiss said he unloaded whatever he had left of MRNA, in part because of the stock's reaction to good news last week.

Weiss suggested BABA could double. He also said momentum could keep carrying UBER, but there's no room to miss either.

Weiss said "Oppenheimer" was "tremendous." Weiss said he'd let Joe talk about "Barbie."

Judge actually says ‘What a difference ... a couple years makes’

Judge, making a rare appearance on the Halftime Report Friday (7/28), noted that MSFT is down just 1.4% and suggested "good enough earnings" are indeed good enough.

And then Judge bluntly declared, "It's a bull market."

Bill Baruch, who got the end chair at Post 9 instead of Jim Lebenthal (who got a middle seat for the 2nd day in a row), said he's got 8-9% cash, and if the market goes higher, "great," and if there's a "little bit" of a correction, he can "go shopping."

Bryn Talkington said she expects "some broadening out of these other sectors" beyond technology.

Bryn said "things are not great" with commercial real estate and regional banks, but it "seems to be contained."

Jim seemed to mock those who make a "giant move out of the market" because they think "the market's gonna go down 5 to 10%."

"Don't make these heroic bets," Jim advised.

Judge gave Jim a chance to "flesh out" a point about Big Tech. Jim stated, "The threat (snicker) in my opinion is that it only goes up 5 to 6% from here to year-end," which Jim said would "feel like a disaster" though it's still "good returns."

Jim said people will buy names like BA and HD instead of tech "because the recession is being thrown away."

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Steve Grasso opined, "This feels like the most-hated rally that there's ever been," though he conceded that people have used that term all the time.

Bill Baruch isn’t a rookie or newcomer to Halftime but seems leading candidate for Top (Semi-)Regular Addition of the Year

Jim Lebenthal on Friday's (7/27) Halftime Report insisted a couple times during the show that "we have to as a country refill the strategic petroleum reserve. I mean, it's strategic. Like refill it."

As far as energy demand, Jim conceded China "could get worse" if it has another COVID shutdown, but he doesn't see that happening.

Bryn Talkington said the catch-up trade in energy has "already started" and that she thinks this is a "great year" to do some dollar-cost averaging into energy. Bill Baruch bought more CVX and PXD.

CNBC's Kristina Partsinevelos, who seems to join the program for Old Tech earnings assessments such as IBM and INTC, took up the latter on Friday and questioned if Wall Street is "celebrating too soon."

Kristina said if she were Pat Gelsinger, she'd say the "foundry business is doing quite well," though "of course I'm not biased towards the company or anything." Jim said he thinks it's "too soon" to plunge into INTC. "It's becoming a contract manufacturer," Jim said, suggesting investors will have "a long wait in this at best."

In what seems like an every-other-day event, UBER got another touting, this time from Bill Baruch, who, as much as anyone on the show, has seemed fully in step with the market rally since spring. (This writer is long UBER.) Bill likes the long-term "diversification of revenue streams" for UBER, though "it's tough to chase it." Jim said "I've missed this" but he's "not about to chase this at this level (sic last 3 words redundant). Bryn said Dara's done an "amazing job." Bryn said UBER could be included "in the December S&P rebalance." But Bryn did note that since the IPO, it's "made no money." And Bryn thinks LYFT is actually higher up on her "interest list." Steve Grasso on Fast Money said he'd fade UBER "based purely on technicals."

Bill said he bought AMGN. Jim said CVS has had a "terrible 9 months" but he thinks it's "sandbagging" and has an "incredibly forgiving valuation."

Bryn endorsed the XBI and ABBV and said she has sold calls against the XBI.

Jim said he's "not sellin' a share" of DAL. Bill said he likes MCD and there could be a breakout but there could also be a "little rollover in the near term." Jim called DE "a great catch-up trade."

Jim actually doesn’t have to sit at the end of Post 9 (a/k/a someone in Omaha is overweight AAPL)

Thursday's (7/27) stock market was a much different story after the airing of the Halftime Report.

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Karen Finerman said the META call was "really positive," and she suggested Thursday's markets turned the way they did midday because "things were really getting frothy." Karen "shorted some SPYders" in the last 5 minutes of the day.

Halftime began with an assessment of that META call. Kari Firestone said META used to have "excess employees" and projects that were "very, very unprofitable," but even now with the gains, the stock is still "not expensive."

Jim Lebenthal said he doesn't like social media because of "what it does to mankind" and even likened avoiding it to not owning tobacco stocks.

Kari mentioned "Cambridge Analytics (sic last word)" and suggested "many people" who own the stock don't even know about that.

Guest host Frank Holland (yes, Judge was another scratch) asked Kari, "Mark Zuckerberg not being held in contempt of court (sic meant 'Congress'), any reaction to that." Kari said it's "usually not" something the market focuses on "intensely."

Rob Sechan sees a "likelihood" of another rate hike. Nobody on the panel had much of an opinion on Jeffrey Gundlach's assessment to Judge that rates have peaked.

Jim Lebenthal said higher capital requirements in the Basel III updates are "not a surprise," and it's "probably a good thing" for helping banks avoid what happened to SIVB.

ALGN had a huge day. Kari Firestone said she thinks earnings will "start to accelerate."

Rob Sechan, who's been a fairly quiet skeptic for nearly a couple years, said he owns MCD; he said they had a good report and "it's not really more expensive than it's been."

Kari Firestone said it's hard to be against AAPL in this market, but, "There's almost nobody who's overweight Apple."

Josh Brown said he owns ESRT and asserted "the dividend is safe." He said he plans to hold it "for at least 2 or 3 years." He added, "Don't follow me into it for a trade."

Frank Holland seemed impressed with Josh's lengthy statement touting ESRT, which Frank called "the most colorful setup for a talk about REITs in human history."

"Frankie, wait till they give me my own show, you have no idea," Brown said.

Chair Powell can’t go to any more Dead & Co. shows because there (supposedly) aren’t any more

Absent from Halftime this week, Judge on Wednesday's (7/26) Closing Bell (yes, we've stopped watching it effective immediately, but this was the quarterly Gundlach interview) turned up at DoubleLine in L.A. and immediately asked Jeffrey Gundlach about Gundlach's June prediction that there wouldn't be another hike.

Jeffrey's response was to recap the yield curve and bond market expectations (or, basically not a response).

Jeffrey said Wednesday's press conference was "as bland as you could possibly get."

Reaffirming his recent commentary that, as in 2021, the Fed may be behind the curve, Gundlach said the core CPI average over the last 20 years is exactly "2.0%." Judge said it sounds like Jeffrey wants the Fed to declare victory.

Judge asked Steve Liesman, "Do you think that this was the last move in this cycle?"

Steve chuckled and said, "I thought you were gonna ask me if you think he's gonna go to another Dead & Company concert. I could've answered that question a little more easily. ... I don't think he's necessarily done yet."

But Steve said he thinks Powell feels "pretty good" and "pretty confident" about a soft-landing.

Jeffrey said the hottest sector since the previous Fed meeting "amazingly is commodities." He predicted "next year" for the first rate cut.

The 5 p.m. Fast Money crew, which we just started (sorta) watching again, didn't have Karen Finerman and opened with lukewarm opinions about META.

Weiss thinks Ruth Porat’s promotion could change her ‘style of living’

There wouldn't have been any highlights from Wednesday's (7/26) pre-Fed Halftime Report, except that Joe Terranova got to say "rebalance" in the 3rd minute.

Joe said a lot of Big Tech is having an "overextended technical nature."

Steve Weiss said of Ruth Porat, who, um, doesn't exactly design search engines or YouTube algorithms but was basically hired to run the quarterly conference calls so the founders don't have to attend, "She's acquitted herself very well as CFO, so deserves a promotion. Um, happy she got it, maybe it'll change her style of living, I don't know. But it'll be great for the stock because she brings a discipline."

Sarat Sethi said of GOOGL, "the operating leverage is just huge."

Liz Young said we've had an "incredible rip this year" but that valuations look high "any way that you slice or dice them ... nearing 20 times forward earnings."

Joe said the market's "vulnerable for a correction in this quarter."

Sarat said MSFT is still doing great and the stock's just having some "giveback."

Along with rebalancing, Joe invoked one of his long-running themes, "the rest of the world exporting their deflation to the United States." (Translation: It's cheaper to build iPhones in Shanghai than in San Jose.)

Liz gets Sunday Ticket! (And thinks nobody watches baseball on TV)

On Wednesday's (7/26) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal dialed in to say BA delivered an "enormous free cash flow beat."

Jim conceded he was buying BA 4 years ago over 300, but last year, he bought "hand over fist" at "about $175 a share."

In what's becoming a daily feature, The Daily DIS-cussion, Sarat Sethi opined that "the sum of the parts is greater than the whole."

Liz Young revealed, and this was supercute (if it's OK to say that), "I'm like the only woman in Manhattan that has the NFL Sunday Ticket and the MLB package." Liz said sports are the kings for TV advertising but that advertisers need to keep up with "the type of sport" that people are watching. "People aren't quite as interested in baseball as they continue to be in football," Liz explained.

Invoking an NCAA basketball term, Joe Terranova said NFLX is "on the bubble" for the JOET. Steve Weiss said NFLX "stands alone" as a "clean story" in media. Weiss conceded sports programming is king, but only for those who own the content (that's David Tepper), not those who have to buy it.

Guest host Courtney Reagan, doing a great job all week, said she'll always associate NFLX-pandemic with "Tiger King."

As CNBCers continue to field questions via "Twitter," Sarat Sethi recommended keeping GM. Joe Terranova handed someone a "C" for buying MRK at 108. Liz Young said she wants a viewer to reduce his 80% portfolio position in regional banks. Steve Weiss said he owns DKS and is "on the fence" about the stock. Weiss noted Liz didn't issue a grade on that regional-bank trade.

Weiss made a new China buy (BIDU) with the same arguments he now makes on every episode.

KC Sullivan needs to right the ship on CNBC’s afternoon disaster

You may have noticed ...

CNBC's afternoon programming (basically, the "Closing Bell" franchise) is so stale, it's nearly unwatchable. Instead of raucous countdowns into the market close and vigorous debates about the quality of earnings reports, viewers are getting bludgeoned by Halftime Report reruns and some strange conceptual revert to Englewood Cliffs at 4 p.m. (when folks there should be going home) that feels like discussing stocks from the helm of the Starship Enterprise.

About a year ago, Judge secured the 4 p.m. hour for Closing Bell Overtime and quickly reinvigorated that hour.

For whatever head-scratching reason, Judge got dialed down to 3 p.m., and the quality former morning niche team of Brennan and Forte somehow became tasked with bridging the gap from Closing Bell to Fast Money. (The only flatter type of move would've been giving a fresh show to Shep Smith.)

We have no idea what Mr. Sullivan is/was thinking. We're voting with our feet — er, remote. Effectively immediately, this page is knocking Closing Bell off the viewing schedule and restoring Fast Money. Which means we're back to Tim Seymour, who is no doubt picking up where he left off, recommending viewers take a look at Mobile Telesystems or China Mobile or Wimm Bill Dann (or whatever the heck it was called). (Honestly, the hair hasn't changed a bit since 2009.) And Guy "Benign Tape" Adami.

It also means we're going to resume daily (television) appointments with gorjus CNBC superfox Karen Finerman, which doesn't bother us in the slightest.

Your move, Mr. Sullivan.

Court doing great

On Tuesday's (7/25) Halftime Report, Josh Brown asserted that, despite all the differences between the 2023 U.S. economy and the 1975 U.S. economy, "Powell is terrified of being labeled as Arthur Burns, Part 2."

Brown's probably right.

What Brown didn't say was that Powell also doesn't want to be fielding questions from congressmen about why their constituents have to pay 7% rates just so that Toll Brothers will cut its prices 5%.

So, we'll see.

Jim Lebenthal explained that he's not on Twitter anymore because it's a "hatefest" and he's going to be the "dinosaur" who stays off social media.

(P.E. Ratio Trading Alert) Jim said what appeals to him about GOOGL is that it's "attractively priced" among Big Tech. Josh Brown said GOOGL is "buyable," but he'd caution against buying it for an earnings surprise. Although that turned out fine. (This review was posted after the earnings report.)

Josh suggested MSFT is as "extended" as it's been in the last 10 years, "quite frankly."

Asked about ALK by guest host Courtney Reagan, who did another excellent job, Jim said, "Sometimes in investing Courtney you kinda raise your hands and say, 'What the ...'" Jim said the guidance disappointed, but it's an "incredibly cheap" stock and "there's really no sign of demand falling off." Stephanie Link said this is why earnings season is "silly season."

Jim said CLF had a "fabulous quarter," and we couldn't help but wonder how many years has he been touting this stock.

Jenny did not bring up how well IBM did last year (but otherwise supplied viewers with reruns of her recent Greatest Hits)

We couldn't help but wonder how much guest host Courtney Reagan would really hold Weiss' feet to the fire on Monday's (7/24) Halftime Report.

But Court did a fine job otherwise (and turned up in a couple stunning profile shots such as above), so viewers got a treat.

Jenny Harrington said this is a "mercurial" market, which she said she mentioned last week on Worldwide Exchange with Frank Holland — which was hardly the only observation from a previous program that Jenny was repeating on Monday.

Jenny again said META is up 250% since November and that it's not 250% better, it's just better "perception." (That was her call on 7/19.)

There was yet another analyst call on DIS. Jenny again brought up her don't-bet-against-New-York-City-or-Disney argument. (That was her call on 7/14.)

Jenny claimed that the show's panelists all sit there and worry "all the time" about "another banking crisis," citing SVB. Steve Weiss, who was also at Post 9, dismissed that notion and called the stress tests a "non-event every year" for the big banks.

Weiss said he added to GS because "it was a kitchen-sink quarter."

Weiss also stated, "I still think there's a case to be bullish," but, "I'm not all in by any stretch of the imagination."

Weiss did have the most provocative observation of the day, stating that it's concerning to him that at restaurants or auto shops, "There's a 3% surcharge if you're using your credit card." He said it "could be an issue" for credit card companies but isn't now.

Meanwhile, Joe Terranova asserted something about rebalancing, "There is a very strong technical overbought condition that's represented in a Nasdaq 100 that's up 400- uh 40% so far year to date."

Joe said the UPS talks are a "big deal" though he doesn't want to say too much about it. Weiss said it's disappointing to learn that Joe won't be "mediating" the UPS talks.

Joe touted Mike Wirth and his "absolute remarkable job." Jenny said she sold CVX early in the year and she "repurposed" the cash into PXD. Weiss said he owns FCX and has been buying more.

Joe said HES, one of his Final Trades, has the "highest correlation" to the spot price of oil. (Usually he just says it's "tethered" to the price of oil.)

Judge opts not to give Joe a Fast Fire on grammar

Shannon Saccocia opened Friday's (7/21) Halftime Report by correctly saying that if this conversation was happening 6 months ago, "The only thing we'd be talking about is the Fed."

Later, Shannon also correctly noted that "there's been a lot of defectors from the hard-landing camp."

Joe Terranova said we've learned this week that "there's resiliency in the market."

Joe told Judge that he could have "a hundred people" come on the show and opine on whether earnings will beat, "The reality is no one knows what's gonna happen with earnings next week."

Judge asked Joe if Big Tech "better" have good earnings. Joe told Judge, "I just inferred (sic meant 'implied' but Judge didn't correct him) (hopefully that's not because Judge didn't know either) to you that I actually hope that they don't," so they can work off the "overbought nature of these stocks."

Joe added, "Without question, you wanna be a buyer on the dip."

Nevertheless, Joe said the AXP CEO "gives me a little bit of concern for the airlines themselves (sic last word redundant)."

In his strongest declaration of the program, Joe said, "If the S&P is sitting within striking distance of where we're sitting right now, I will tell you I believe you will have one of the most powerful chase for performances in Q4 that we have seen in many many years, and that will take you above the all-time high."

"Is that your call?" Judge asked.

"I think I just stated that pretty clear," Joe said. (Perhaps more clearly than his "inferred" a little earlier.) (Actually, in terms of a "call," it wasn't clear at all. He keeps saying people will buy the dip, which would suggest the S&P will indeed be within "striking distance" of where it is today, but he also sees an "overbought nature" to the market.)

"Did you get that as a definitive call?" Judge asked the others. Shannon and Jason Snipe each said they did.

Joe said you have to give UBER management credit for the "cultural change." (This writer is long UBER.)

Joe can relax; no one said ‘apocalyptic’

The highlight of Thursday's (7/20) Halftime Report was basically a Fast Fire.

Judge pointed out that Josh Brown's big buy of TOST, announced recently on the show, got "absolutely destroyed yesterday."

Brown admitted, "My timing maybe could not have been worse, like literally to the minute. Uh, but unfortunately stick around long enough, this is gonna happen."

Josh said the company quickly reversed itself on a 99-cent transaction fee that was "very unpopular" with customers. He said he doesn't think the selloff is "justified" to this extent. And he said he bought more Wednesday.

Moments later, asked to opine on DHI, Josh stated, "When people use the term 'blowoff top,' this is exactly what they're referring to." He added, "Ya gotta be careful until it cools off."

Meanwhile, Judge told Jim Lebenthal that the airline sector "is on fire." Jim agreed and said "I think it's gonna continue," but "these are not long-term holdings."

Judge said "how can you say that," Jim has owned ALK "for as long as I can remember talking to you on this program."

"It's not as long as you think," Jim said, and "it's taken longer to have its value recognized than I would've liked." Jim said he doesn't expect to be in airlines a year from now.

Jim said tech is "ahead of itself" but there's a "broadening out."

Jim noted he's worked with Judge "for 10 years."

In a serious understatement, Josh Brown said, "I don't think that we should extrapolate a whole new market regime based on what's going on this morning."

Amy Raskin bought more SPLK, saying she's trying to "bring down the P.E. of the portfolio" (because P.E. ratio determines where stocks are going, evidently). That's apparently also why Amy swapped EL for LRLCY. (This writer is long EL.)

Kristina tries her darnedest to get Jenny to define IBM as a ‘defensive’ stock

On Wednesday's (7/19) Halftime Report, Jenny Harrington, who seemed to be getting paid by the word, brought up how IBM did last year, which apparently is something she's going to bring up all the time.

Jenny cheered the stock as one with "solid, sustainable returns (Zzzzzzzzz)." It was not a fellow panelist but CNBC's Kristina Partsinevelos, who was previewing Big Blue earnings, who said Jenny's argument for IBM is "pretty defensive" and wondered "where's the growth."

Jenny said she doesn't know but that "incrementally," something will work and it'll be "singles and doubles" and not home runs, and that there's "no expectations in the share price."

"Exactly. So then we won't see much movement then," Kristina continued.

"OK, but, in this market, if I can get on average, a 5% yield, and I don't know, 5% growth on the share price over the next year because they're incrementally adding, that works for me as an investor. It's not greedy. It's sustainable," Jenny said.

"You're describing a defensive play right there," Kristina said, suggesting why not own it if there's going to be more "turbulence" in the market.

Joe is underperforming the S&P because he’s equal-weighted

Judge opened Wednesday's (7/19) Halftime Report calling Jim Lebenthal "Jimmy the Bull." Jim said we can all "chuckle" about how the market has gone "straight up," but it will "give something back."

Jim acknowledged he's trimming a little bit. "We are likely to have a 5 to 7% pullback," Jim said, though it may not happen until September.

Judge noted that Jim was selling GS and suggested he's selling at "what some would suggest is the bottom." Jim said he bought it at the end of March 2020 (stocks don't care what one's basis is), so he made a "big gain" (which doesn't address whether it might be around a bottom). Jim said MS is "whooping the behind" of GS. Jim said this is "not a wholesale move into cash."

Brian Belski said in the short term, he agrees with Jim and thinks some people have been "chasing" and the market can get "choppy."

But Belski claimed "We're in the midst of I think one of the greatest stock-picking environments that I've seen in well over 10 years."

Joe Terranova offered, "It feels as if the momentum is building to almost go parabolic in a sense."

Pointing to the 200-day S&P MA of 4,043, Joe said, "There is a lot of air underneath the market," but any correction will be greeted "with a tremendous amount of buying interest."

As for those wondering how the JOET is doing, Joe provided an update. "I run an equal-weighted strategy. It's the reason that I'm underperforming the S&P year to date. I'm outperforming momentum, but I'm underperforming the S&P because I'm equal-weighted," Joe said.

He asked Belski if it's "time" for investors to go to an equal-weighted strategy. Belski said the market's "actually telling you that" for the last 6 weeks.

Joe predicted we'll be seeing 5,000 and 5,100 S&P targets "relatively soon."

A bunch of Final Trades involved banks. Joe said James Gorman "can be mentioned in the same breath as James (sic) Dimon."

Wondering how much sleep Ray Romano has gotten this week

Skepticism began to surface around Big Tech on Wednesday's (7/19) Halftime Report.

Jim Lebenthal suggested MSFT's day on Tuesday and AAPL's day on Wednesday aren't "healthy" and look like a "blowoff top."

Jenny Harrington complained that META's business isn't 250% better than November, only the "perception" of the business. "I get nervous" with those kinds of gains, Jenny said.

Brian Belski referred to the stock group that included CSCO and ORCL and QCOM as "Jenny Tech."

Joe Terranova said NFLX's documentaries right now are "unbelievable" compared with other streamers.

Jenny said that last Wednesday when she woke up and read the AT&T story, her reaction was, "Are you kidding me?" But she said the stock "was already trading as if it was worthless" and that these problems for AT&T go back a long way and that in some cases it causes more damage to fix the problem than leave it as is and it's not like the company is putting this stuff in the ground today.

Jenny said SLG is up 38% in 3 months because of "perception."

Judge concluded the episode with a "Good stuff." (He also said "gusto" at one point.)

Judge thinks NBCUni should get a ‘group discount’ on Microsoft’s AI contraption

Josh Brown on Tuesday's (7/18) Halftime Report read the latest UBER upgrade basically word for word and suggested "S&P addition" as one of the "non-fundamental catalysts." (This writer is long UBER.)

Steve Kovach provided breaking news on MSFT, but it somehow didn't have anything to do with Activision Blizzard. Steve noted some price hikes regarding its "AI co-pilot feature."

"We don't get a group discount or anything?" Judge chuckled. "Paging Brian Roberts."

Judge said he read a "news piece" that an options trader is betting $40 million "that META will almost double."

UNH, which seems to get a couple of sentences worth of mentions on the program just about every day, got a curious "603" price target from Bernstein, according to Judge, who noted it's not 600, but 603. (Honestly, we don't find that number unusual, analysts come up strange numbers all the time.) (See, it worked, Judge gave it an extra mention on TV.)

Jason Snipe said NFLX's gains show that password-sharing measures and the ad tier are working. Josh Brown said the market has been telling NFLX that an ad tier was the way to go. "I'm waiting to see Disney follow suit" and change its "current course" in streaming, Josh said.

Stephanie Link said DIS shouldn't go after the rest of Hulu. Josh questioned if DIS will sell ABC and linear TV to buy the rest of Hulu; Josh said "nobody" in "real life" is the buyer for ABC.

Joe should be glad; no one mentioned ‘apocalyptic’

Josh Brown opened Tuesday's (7/18) Halftime Report saying he "doubled my position" in TOST, with an average cost around "23-ish."

Brown said analyst reports have provided "a lot of confirmation that this has the potential to be one of the great growth stocks."

Confirmation ... of potential.

OK.

Brown added, "Please don't hit me about this" if the stock falls $5.

Judge noted the stock is "only about 40 cents away" from a 52-week high. Brown said "professionals" buy stocks not based on lowest price but "confirmation of strength."

Messi shops at Publix

Jason Snipe on Tuesday's (7/18) Halftime Report suggested there's "5 trillion-plus" dollars on the sidelines because people have had "offsides positioning" this year.

Stephanie Link said the soft landing looks "real." Link said "by the way" and later, "oh by the way" (twice).

Josh Brown explained that "Stephanie taught me in 2011" that all the "top-down people are almost always bearish" because they look at things like national debt and Fed policy and see the "worst-case scenario" as most likely.

Jason Snipe owns AXP and said he continues to be bullish on it for the "travel and entertainment boom."

Judge curiously brought in Miami soccer owner Jorge Mas to discuss the arrival of Lionel Messi in Miami. (We figured the only reason this was on CNBC's Halftime Report would be because NBCUni is one of the broadcasters, but when we looked up the schedule, it appears the games are streamed on Apple TV.)

Judge noted video showing Messi shopping in "Publix and a supermarket, which was incredible in and of itself." Moments later in the conversation, Judge uncorked another "in and of itself."

Liz still insisting market is not in a ‘sweet spot’

On Monday's (7/17) Halftime Report, which featured the return of Judge (unclear if there's another golf tournament this week), Steve Weiss fairly quietly stated at the opening, "I think there's a case to be bullish."

Judge asked him to verify that comment. "Yes," Weiss said.

"The market just wants to go higher," Weiss explained, and that's actually mostly correct, though Joe Terranova took it a bit further.

Joe suggested the bears don't "recognize" that the VIX is at "pre-pandemic levels" and dollar is at a 14-month low. "I feel as though the bears are speaking and analyzing last year's market. I feel like they're stuck in the past," Joe explained.

We think that's close. What either Joe or Weiss could've said is that this feels a lot like summer 2009. There are still a lot of folks claiming the worst is yet to come, but buyers, for whatever reasons, are done waiting.

One of those people seemingly stuck in 2022 is Liz Young, who wasn't on the Halftime Report but did appear on Closing Bell. Judge evidently thought so highly of Joe's bears-stuck-in-the-past point that he asked Liz to respond. Liz first said that "markets tend to bottom after the Fed starts cutting," which made our head spin trying to figure out where that bottom would be. Liz said "the catalyst that would make them cut" is what would determine whether Joe's right. Liz also added that "inflation is still growing."

Liz admitted she's been "skeptical the whole way up" and "people have been angry with me for it." Liz said we can "keep going" until there's a "reason not to."

Joe wants no more ‘apocalyptic’ (but he’s the one who said it 4-5 times, more than he said ‘rebalance’)

Judge on Monday's (7/17) Halftime Report said the supposed "earnings apocalypse" may have to be "canceled" because it hasn't happened and "may not happen."

Joe Terranova dismissively said that we should put "apocalyptic" on the "shelf."

"I don't think anybody's looking for apocalyptic-" Steve Weiss started to say.

"A lot of people are," Joe cut in.

Weiss said there's "complacency" in the market, "by and large."

‘Performance is not the only thing that makes stocks work’

Asked to explain BAC's performance on Monday's (7/17) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss said, "I guess I should own JPMorgan" because it's got the "sizzle" as well as the "limelight" CEO, and we honestly didn't know if Weiss was being sarcastic there or not.

Weiss went on to make excuses about long-ago stuff dogging BAC such as being "jammed" with Merrill and insisted Brian Moynihan is doing a "phenomenal job" and then offered this curious theory on the equity market: "Performance is not the only thing that makes stocks work."

Hmmmmm, what else does ...

On other topics, Weiss said, "You won't hear Netflix say this, but I think the strike's great for Netflix. Why? Because they're not spending on content."

Joe Terranova said that what's going on with DIS and ESPN is "baffling."

Joe asserted, "The problem with oil is the muted reopening in China." Joe also referred to "deteriation (sic pronunciation)" in momentum in the energy sector.

‘This bull market is just getting started’ (a/k/a ‘transitory’ make a comeback)

A remarkably honest revelation took place on Friday's (7/14) Halftime Report after Frank Holland asked Jenny Harrington about the WFC report. Jenny admitted, "To be totally honest, I'm not up to speed on the Wells Fargo report."

Jenny outlined the economic landscape and concluded, "It seems like we're OK, but not robust."

Bill Baruch said Jamie Dimon sounds "on board" with a soft landing.

Jason Snipe opined on GS. "The retail business clearly was a failure," but "some of the bad news is behind them," Jason said.

Joe Terranova offered, "Quality is outperforming once again." Joe added, "This quarter? I will take sideways as the end result."

Joe said the "disinflationary trend ... washes away this misperception that was being communicated 1 year ago that inflation was entrenched and that it was '70s-style inflation. And that in fact is not the case. ... The inflation is transitory!"

Jenny spoke of posting, after the show, "this slide from my client call on Twitter" (that's correct, not Threads).

Bill Baruch bluntly declared "This is a bull market, it's been a bull market," and it's "fun" and "exciting." Bill said the "massive flushdown" in bonds early this month is the "start of the capitulation in the Treasury market," which is why he thinks ... this was The Comment of the Show ... "this bull market is just getting started."

Bill said he expects a correction sometime in August through October, but bears will use that as an opportunity to get in, providing the "next tailwind."

‘It’s hard to grade a trade when someone hasn’t made a trade’ (a/k/a When just thinking about a trade is worthy of an ‘A’ grade)

On Friday's (7/14) Halftime Report, guest host Frank Holland told Jenny Harrington that IBM is "one of the worst-performing stocks in the tech sector this year."

Those evidently were fightin' words, as Jenny said it's "sooo insulting" to hear that IBM is the "worst-performing stock" because "last year, it was the best-performing stock." (Which is like claiming in 2021 that PTON's tumble is no big deal because it was so great in 2020.)

Joe Terranova bluntly dismissed IBM, stating, "Over the last 5 years, stock's lower." Frank wondered about IBM's emphasis on AI, in which it used to lead; "shouldn't that be the whole earnings call?"

Jenny complained that they talk about AI as "winner takes all" and it would be a "disservice" to IBM investors if that's all IBM talked about.

Meanwhile, Bill Baruch said TSLA has been on an "absolute tear" and almost needs to be treated "like a commodity"; he's expecting $300 "if they don't disappoint."

In Grade My Trade, Jason Snipe advised holding PANW. Jenny was asked to grade someone thinking about buying MMM. "I think it's hard to grade a trade when someone hasn't made a trade, right," Jenny said, but, "Because you're thinking of it, I'll give you an 'A.'"

Jenny suggested some end-of-litigation developments and making robots for BMW factories as tailwinds for MMM. Joe predicted 65-70 for UBER in 2-3 years. (This writer is long UBER.) Bill Baruch suggested holding onto AMD unless it breaks $100.

At least there wasn’t a follow-up interview on how much sleep Ray Romano gets before golf outings (a/k/a Judge manages to do 60% of the shows after VAC week)

Even though the JOET holds UPS, Joe Terranova on Friday's (7/14) Halftime Report said he's not concerned about a strike's effect on the JOET but rather its "effect on the economy."

Jenny Harrington said she has a "bigger macro kinda thought" about UPS, stemming from a "great podcast" by Jim Grant and Seth Klarman in which they discussed "how unsustainable huge margins are because they're always under attack from competition or from labor."

Joe added, "Labor for the very first time in decades has a degree of leverage that they haven't had." Guest host Frank Holland agreed it's a "very tight labor market."

Frank's Call of the Day was Credit Suisse cutting DIS to ... $126. "Let's be real about it," said Jenny Harrington, noting the target implies "40% upside." She said there's some "really interesting things" in that report, such as that there's a "massive, massive valuation gap" in media revenues/valuation between DIS and NFLX, which isn't the first time someone has insisted that DIS' valuation is better than that of NFLX.

Jenny said DIS is like New York City in that it's "down and out occasionally," but it's a "fool's bet" to bet against either one.

Jenny told Frank that the Hollywood strikes are "really short term." Frank said "legacy TV and ESPN, that's not short term." Jenny said, "But it's Disney. Like they're going to figure out a way to overcome it."

"They need to do something," Joe said of DIS. "Maybe they need activists."

Jason Snipe said DIS has "great assets" and "if anyone's gonna right this ship, it's Bob Iger." But Jason thinks NFLX is the play and is "starting to generate free cash flow again."

Ray Romano clearly didn’t get enough sleep (a/k/a Weiss now thinks Taiwan invasion won’t happen)

Around here, we've actually got no problem with media outlets trumpeting their own sponsored projects or attempting a little in-house advertising, even at the expense of real news (it pays the bills, makes the suits happy, etc.).

But we wuz kinda scratchin' our heads at Judge's need to interview Ray Romano at the American Century Championship golf tournament at Lake Tahoe for a full 8 minutes, given that 1) Romano is not going to win the golf tournament and 2) Ray had about as much information about the pending Hollywood strike as the dudes asking for change at Times Square.

It never occurred to Judge to ask Romano what stocks he owns/likes.

Whether it's directing TV/movie productions or playing in celebrity golf outings, it sounds like Ray experiences a lotta stress.

Ray said he "woke up at 5 to 5 this morning." Judge said, "Join the club."

Josh Brown asked a question about popular nightspots in Queens; Ray said it's a "Sophie's Choice" question.

Meanwhile, as for the regular program (which Judge somehow hosted from Tahoe in a snazzy CNBC golf shirt), Steve Weiss told Judge he has "markedly increased my exposure" because "the momentum's there" in this "glass half-full market."

Trying to explain the rally, again, as he has struggled to do since spring, Weiss reverted to one of his recent old saws, it's a "new class of investors" that's anticipating a V-shaped recovery all the time.

Jim Lebenthal said "people have FOMO again." Jim said he expects a pullback but not a big correction; "I am not gonna sell anything in anticipation of a 5 to 6% pullback that might occur this summer."

Weiss actually said he bought BABA, saying it's getting "mind-boggling" stimulus from the Chinese government.

Weiss then addressed one of his favorite subjects of last year: "In terms of Taiwan, what we saw with Russia and invading Ukraine, I don't think that's gonna happen either" and there's even a "nice undercurrent' from Blinken and Yellen's trips to China.

Tangent time: Ed Yardeni doesn’t come close to answering Jim’s question

"I think we're starting to see disinflation in the services side, particularly the rent component, which is 40% of this, of the CPI," said Ed Yardeni, the star guest of Wednesday's (7/12) Halftime Report.

Ed predicted "inflation concerns will abate."

Jim Lebenthal asked Ed how we square away "contractionary ISM manufacturing with capex that's positive." Ed curiously retraced the economics of the last 3 years, stating only that "we all had cabin fever" and wanted to buy things when the pandemic ended but many services couldn't be bought, now airports and restaurants are "jam-packed."

Joe Terranova said, "I don't believe in the apocalyptic earnings contraction scenario," but we could "plateau."

Joe suggested, "Be alert for any real estate markdowns in upcoming earnings."

For about the 3rd day in the last 5, Joe recommended NFLX over DIS.

Rob Sechan said we're on a "golden path" of both disinflation and "average weekly earnings strengthening."

Rob said he gets concerned when "everybody at the gym" is talking about owning "Navidia" (that's how he pronounced how people talk about it at the gym).

Trading AI’s P.E. ratio

We expected to find Judge on Wednesday's (7/12) Halftime Report; instead, just like last week, Frank Holland was guest host, ending Judge's 2-day streak.

Jim Lebenthal said he feels "good" about the prospect of a 2nd-half rally and said it's been his idea "basically that the Fed's work is done."

As for Fed signals, Jim called Nick Timiraos "the insider if you will from the journalistic community" and suggested, "We've just gotta follow what Nick Timiraos is reading (sic meant 'writing') in the Wall Street Journal."

Still, Jim said "this market needs to consolidate" so he doesn't think this is the "FOMO moment."

Liz Young, who never gets too specific, offered, "I do not see a lot of upside over the long term from these valuation levels."

Joe Terranova asserted that "yields are the story." Joe allowed, "I think there's vulnerability that you could see a sideways or even a weak quarter," but he thinks the 4th quarter will be "very strong."

CNBC's gorgeous Kate Rooney is back, but she had a devil of a time with the prompter in the CNBC News Update.

Jim said he "very strongly" thinks we've bottomed in oil, around $70.

Joe's Final Trade was AVGO, complete with the obligatory speech that (not the exact quote) IT'S THE AI PLAY WITH A LOW P.E. RATIO!!!!!

On Tuesday's (7/11) Halftime, discussing the overstimulated economy of 2020-21, Josh Brown cited the fiscal spending that Joe Biden engineered upon taking office as the "obvious straw that broke the camel's back," pumping "1.3 trillion in nonsense" into an economy that was "already on fire."

Josh called UBER "the most mispriced large-cap tech stock." (This writer is long UBER.)

Weiss claims there’s been an ‘earnings apocalypse’

Returning after a holiday break, Judge opened Monday's (7/10) Halftime Report by asking if stocks can "withstand" another move higher in rates.

(Not the most exciting question. But Judge has been on break; we'll give him a pass.)

Joe Terranova offered, "I think the market has already absorbed the significant move in yields," but the "challenge" now is that long-duration strategies are being "squeezed out."

Steve Weiss said the "biggest vulnerability is in the large-cap tech" because "that's where the action's been," specifically multiple expansion.

Bryn Talkington stated, "You can clearly have other sectors lead when tech is faltering," adding that investors who did not have tech last year did "quite well."

Bryn predicts a "weaker" CPI print than people are expecting. Bryn said yields shouldn't go too much higher, and she expects a "small summer rally."

Joe predicted momentum will "plateau" in this quarter.

But Joe said, "The good thing is, I do think we've built in a buy-the-dip mentality for technology and megacaps."

Judge brought up Mike Wilson's latest call. Joe said, "A lot of what Mike has said over the last 6 months, I disagree with."

Joe again curiously stated that people who are in "cash-yielding equivalents" are in a "very difficult place, how do they reinvest into the marketplace once again." (Well, don't they just log in to their Schwab accounts and hit the "Buy" button?)

Weiss insisted, "in fairness to Mike, we have gotten the earnings apocalypse." Judge said, "Not really."

"Animal spirits are high," Bryn contended.

Things the world definitely doesn’t need: Indiana Jones 10.0

While this page normally starts to get tired of hearing some of the same old subjects on the Halftime Report, DIS is not one of them. Frankly, it's constantly one of a handful of the most interesting companies in the world.

On Monday (7/10), Joe Terranova suggested that while people are waiting for a turnaround at DIS, "give consideration to Netflix as a very compelling alternative," it's a "simpler story."

Joe called ESPN the "jewel of Disney." We'd probably disagree with that. Judge suggested all of Joe's arguments about DIS and NFLX may be priced in, why not try DIS while there's "all of the hair on the stock."

Joe said from a "value perspective," Judge is "100% correct." But he said money will do better in NFLX over 3-6 months.

Bryn Talkington said that unlike Joe, she sees DIS as an "uncomplicated story," basically, "they're not putting out good content," saying DIS can't do "Marvel 10.0" and "Indiana Jones 10.0."

Weiss: New SEC regulations are bound to benefit ambulance chasers

Joe Terranova on Monday's (7/10) Halftime Report took up Threads, stating, "Clearly right now, the engagement is far beyond I think what anyone expected."

Steve Weiss said he agrees and noted Threads users have to be linked to Instagram accounts, which removes the "faceless haters" and the "cesspool" that's been out there on Twitter.

Meanwhile, Leslie Picker reported on proposed new SEC rules for private funds that could allow limited partners to sue general partners for "simpler mistakes" than just recklessness.

This was kind of an interesting topic, though it seems a little deep in the weeds for viewers who generally just want to know which stock is going up.

Weiss said the rule is "much more bureaucracy" that will raise costs, and most at risk are venture capital funds, which are trying to find one winner out of 10, 20 or 30 losers.

Weiss questioned, "Who are you protecting ... at some point it's gotta be buyer beware." He said it's the "ambulance chasers" who will benefit.

Bryn seems to be invoking trickle-down economics

Frustrated by his inability to (so far, but basically a done deal) predict the 2023 stock market, Steve Weiss on Friday's (7/7) Halftime Report resorted to some of his Greatest Hits, which include excuses about why stocks are up (typically, it's the new class of investors who buy every dip, or the old reliable, that stocks go up 90% of the time regardless of how incredibly negative all the data are) and dire forecasts about how (not a quote from Friday but very similar to quotes from other times) "people who aren't on this channel" are experiencing something like 1933.

Weiss predicted a "mixed recession" and again mentioned all the people living "paycheck to paycheck." Weiss said 2 more rate hikes are a "certainty."

But Josh Brown said it's "tricky" to judge this economy because for all the stories he could tell about "working-class people being hurt" by higher borrowing rates, there's also "wealthy people making more money than ever in their portfolios."

Brown said there's no yields on the Treasury curve below 4%.

Bryn Talkington appeared to agree with Brown. "When you look back the last 30 years, the Fed just raising rates hasn't caused a recession, it's really been this event that has occurred," Bryn said, asserting that baby boomers "have all of the money" and are getting a "meaningful" 5% that does "trickle down into the economy."

Bryn thinks "these animal spirits will continue," and "what's been working this year will continue- will continue to work through the summer."

Jim Lebenthal said he thinks the economy can "withstand" a couple more hikes and still have a soft landing, but he is concerned about the possibility of another hot CPI number.

Guest host Frank Holland brought up the Andy Jassy interview. Weiss said, "I think you have to look at the concern on his face maybe more than the words."

After Frank and Kevin Simpson joked about whether they were talking about Jassy's face or Weiss' face, Frank noted, "There wasn't a lot of optimism" from Jassy.

Wonder if Bryn’s gains in TSLA and NVDA would be bigger if she stopped getting called away all the time

Kristina Partsinevelos on Friday's (7/7) Halftime reported the most provocative news of the day, that Deutsche Bank has found that 66% of survey respondents think NVDA is more likely to halve than double.

Bryn Talkington though said AI is going to continue to be a "clear winner" as investors seek the AI space. Bryn said she sold September 450 NVDA calls and got $23 in premium.

Josh Brown said he's not going to say NVDA is "cheap," and he trimmed a little bit recently, but its forward P.E. of 41 is lower than TSLA at 57 and AMZN at 50. Josh cited some RSI stats to conclude that he thinks the semi space has had a "substantial cooling off" and is not overbought and you can stay with NVDA.

Bryn talked about TSLA, as she always does, stating she bought in January around 120 "with all the Twitter nonsense." Bryn said she thinks the stock "is all about China." Bryn also called Elon Musk a "modern-day Thomas Edison."

Kevin Simpson made the case for HD, citing "incredible dividend growth." Guest host Frank Holland said the yield of 2.75% is "below what you can get on any Treasury today at least and for most of this year." Simpson said the dividend story is not "as viable" as it was with rates at zero, but he's looking at dividend growth.

Jim again asserted there still aren't enough cars and that people have to replace the old ones they've got. He thinks there's "still more room to run" in GM, which got a whole $3 price target bump from Morgan Stanley.

Kevin Simpson said "more traditional pharmaceuticals" are a better choice now than biotech, which has been a "dead space" for a year and a half.

Steve Weiss is long UNH and sort of feels like an "MMI (sic) fighter" who's on the "losing side of a roundhouse kick" with that stock. "Tried to catch a falling knife; it hasn't worked out," Weiss said. He said the XBI peaked in February 2021 and it's "sort of unprecedented to have 2 years of just pure ugliness."

CNBC could take a big step toward establishing Threads by inviting viewers to submit Grade My Trade questions on that forum

The most interesting conversation, by far, on Thursday's (7/6) Halftime Report centered around META's new toy.

Josh Brown said he was one of the first people registering on Threads, and he was "blown away" by how quickly META got "adoption" of the service. "People are looking to have that old Twitter experience back," Brown explained.

Brown said he joined Twitter in March 2009. Right now, "It feels like 2009," Brown gushed, noting that the "haters" and "pseudonyms" and "crypto scams" haven't yet shown up.

Brown said Threads may not move the needle this year, but could in the future. Brown said it "crushes the narrative" that everybody's already on META and "refreshes the META growth story."

Sarat Sethi said META is doing well but the stock is "pretty fairly valued." He also noted, curiously, "They still haven't monetized WhatsApp." (The world's been waiting, what, 10 years or more for that?)

Joe Terranova said Threads is "incredibly important" for META in that it's a step toward cementing trust in management for providing users a forum with a "respectful dialogue."

‘No value for any of your streaming’

Amy Raskin on Thursday's (7/6) Halftime Report said DIS has a "lot of issues going forward," including the current world in which "everybody can spend anything in media."

But Raskin cited Andy Jassy's comments about how he'll "reevaluate" Amazon's content strategy (as if any of them are going to stop spending money on streaming content).

Sarat Sethi said "we do need consolidation" and it's happening as companies are realizing "no value for any of your streaming." (Fair enough; they'll just keep spending more on it.)

Joe Terranova said DIS has "challenges" matching NFLX for content and there's an "overwhelming amount of, uh, headwinds."

Josh’s argument for selling ORCL really doesn’t make a whole lot of sense

Josh Brown on Thursday's (7/6) Halftime Report pointed to the 2-year at 5.06% and said this is a much different stock market backdrop than the last time it was there.

Amy Raskin says more and more people are pricing in a soft landing, which she doesn't think is actually right.

Sarat Sethi said, "You have to be very careful as to what equities you're gonna own because high valuations and high interest rates just don't go together."

Joe Terranova said a yield-driven correction is a "welcome opportunity" for people who have missed the rally. Guest host Frank Holland asked Joe if he's concerned about Friday's jobs report. Joe said, "I'm not gonna make a prediction on whether you should be buying in the next 24 hours" but for stocks that have done well in the first half, "history generally suggests" that it continues through the rest of the year.

Steve Liesman said Lorie Logan and John Williams are "very acutely attuned" to the banking sector and yet "neither seems particularly worried about it."

Sarat Sethi said he likes MSFT but wouldn't add here. Amy Raskin thinks there's "a lot of AI hype" in the stock already.

Josh said he sold ORCL and he doesn't see why it can't go higher, however, he has positions such as SHAK and UBER "that have almost doubled this year," and to keep hanging on to those, "you have to take risk off somewhere else." (OK ... so the way to make UBER go higher is to sell ORCL?)

Joe indicated regional bank stocks just may not work this year, though Joe said JPM is a "clear winner."

Sarat said there is "some opportunity" in materials but it's "probably too premature" to buy. Joe said he disagrees with JPMorgan's downgrade of VMC. But, "Materials peaked in February," Joe said.

Joe hangs a $700 on NFLX; Jenny calls that ‘ridiculous’

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (7/5) Halftime Report stated "you can't argue" that NFLX is breaking out.

"It looks like the upside target is the November (2021) highs at $700," Joe said, noting NFLX is in the JOET.

But Jenny Harrington argued that talking about NFLX $700 is like talking about dot-coms returning to their "crazy prices" and that $700 for NFLX is "ridiculous."

Steve Weiss said Jenny made a "great point" but also said the writers strike is the "panacea" for NFLX and could give it a "great quarter."

"It's not a ridiculous valuation," Joe insisted. "You can't compare it to, you know, the dot-com era."

Jim Lebenthal then got a crack at this stock, stating the momentum for NFLX is working but at 32 times next year's free cash flow, up 150% in a year, there's "no way" Jim is buying the stock.

Joe asked, "They're throwing off more free cash flow than Disney, aren't they?"

"Uh, what's- the price differential matters here," Jim explained.

"I just asked a simple question," Joe said. "Who's throwing off more free cash flow ... It's 3 billion vs. 1 billion."

"You're also comparing apples to oranges," Jim said, asserting that NFLX gains have been "brought forward" from coming years.

Jenny’s office was open for customers on Monday the 3rd

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (7/5) Halftime Report declared we can't "dismiss" the fact "at some point, you are going to have a correction for the markets," though he expects it to be "very shallow in its nature."

Joe said the commodity space will be "under pressure" until China is able to "really reopen with strength."

Adding a wrinkle to the still-nascent conversation, Jenny Harrington said she thinks the correction could be "as bifurcated and as divergent as the rally was in the first half."

Jenny said small cap value is trading at 90% of its 20-year average P.E. while large cap growth is at 144%, so Jenny thinks of the former, "Holy smokes, it's undervalued." (That may be true, but we've been hearing that argument for ... how many months now?)

Steve Weiss noted low volatility around a holiday such as the 4th; "some say a holiday week."

Jim Lebenthal re-insisted "it doesn't matter" if we have a recession this year because the market is "looking forward" to next year.

Jim called Weiss his "nemesis to the right here." Weiss said "that part's true actually."

Jim suggested that a correction may look more like a "rolling rally."

Jenny told a story about a client who is a "really sophisticated person; not a professional investor," who on Monday told her, "It's obvious isn't it that the market's already incorporated the chance of a recession and it already has incorporated a chance of 2 hikes."

That leads Jenny to conclude that "mostly" a recession is "already in this market" and, kind of like Jim thinks, it "doesn't matter too much if we have a recession or not."

Jenny said AI's impact will be widely felt, including at Gilman Hill, but the concept has "jacked" valuations on "super obvious plays like Nvidia" while AI will "broadly" benefit society across all kinds of stocks and sectors.

Joe rattled off the cash piles of AAPL, GOOGL and MSFT and said that's a "distinctive advantage" for having money to spend on AI. Joe (again) talked about cashing in AMD for some AVGO shares (but not about that huge challenge supposedly facing money market investors).

Weiss discussing the 2023 market is like the Giants playing the 2nd half of that playoff game in Philly

This is basically guest-host week at CNBC, which is why Frank Holland was seated at Post 9 on Wednesday (7/5) rather than Judge (who admittedly was on hand, for some reason, on Monday).

Steve Weiss said he "got tired of watching Humana go down" and sold his shares.

Jenny Harrington said Threads is "probably" a threat to Twitter but won't be "dramatically meaningful" to META. Weiss said if he were a Twitter lender, he'd be "worried."

"Twitter is a cesspool," Jim Lebenthal bluntly opined.

Meanwhile, Weiss said trucking volumes are down, a "data point" toward to a weakening economy (translation: like cheering a base on balls when a team is batting down 10-3 in the 8th inning). But Jim countered that airline travel is "extraordinarily high."

In Final Trades, Jenny touted one of her favorites, SLG, noting "it's still down 34% over the past year," which sounds like the type of argument she scoffed at moments earlier regarding NFLX.

Weiss’ stale, non-working thesis basically run off the field (and the game’s only at halftime)

It's not often that the most provocative comment on the Halftime Report occurs in the opening minute, but that's what happened Friday (6/30), when Jim Lebenthal, referring to a fellow Investment Committee member, stated, "Steve's got a different opinion, but it's not like he's an idiot. It's not."

Jim said there's "rationality" to Steve Weiss' views on rates, etc., but Jim chooses to focus on what companies are saying.

Weiss, who like Jim and Liz Young and even, for a change, Bryn Talkington, was at Post 9, shrugged, "What I missed were 6 (sic mentioned 5) things: Um, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and, uh, Amazon, I guess."

"Sure, but you thought the economy would be worse off than it is today, you thought the consumer would probably be worse off than it is today, you thought that the market certainly wouldn't be where it is today," Judge responded.

"No that's absolutely true," Weiss admitted, claiming the "average stock" is up 3%.

"It's up 6%," said Jim.

The show was like players rushing on to the field in the 4th quarter while the game was still going on and dumping Gatorade to celebrate the win while Weiss' squad was standing out there grumbling about the referees.

"I still think that we're going towards a recession," Weiss insisted.

Liz Young offered that there's been a "trend change" and that, "One of the things that maybe I got wrong in the first half, was the use of the word 'should,'" or how things that "should be signals" for the market actually haven't been.

Bryn Talkington said the farther we get from the lows, the harder it is to say we'll retest the lows.

Judge noted Fed funds futures are anticipating no cuts in 2023. Weiss said he can't even express how much "disdain" he has for the "idiotic" theory that the Fed would start cutting this year. "What planet were those people living on," Weiss wondered.

Weiss again grumbled about how the market keeps going up and everyone's seeing reward and no risks and protested that he hasn't been short the market.

Still, "You've been a hater of the market," Judge stated.

Bryn fielded a question from Gary, a viewer who bought TSLA mid-May at 180 and sold a September 200 call (that's called overthinking it). Bryn gave Gary an A for making money but advised not buying back the calls at a loss. Liz Young suggested recent gold prices are an "opportunity to add." Jim Lebenthal said there's "another 30% at least" in BA.

Weiss said he took a cab in New York the other day. "It was 50 bucks to go Midtown. Uber is cheaper than that," Weiss said.

"It isn't cheaper," Judge said. "I hate to break it to ya."

Josh: The trouble with DIS is that ‘the content sucks’

Thursday's (6/29) Halftime Report opened with Bob Pisani detailing the IPO for some company with the symbol SVV, while a bunch of folks in suits were standing around.

Judge finally said that 3 IPOs in the same day is "Pisani nirvana."

Rob Sechan said people need to stay invested but "cautiously."

Josh Brown predicted DIS will break 88 "and establish a new multi-year low." He said as it falls, he gets interested, perhaps with a "7-handle."

"The content sucks. That's what they have to fix," Brown said.

Stephanie Link called DIS a "value trap."

Judge recapped Jim Lebenthal's 2023 stock picks. Judge suggested one risk is that "you get married to your positions," which is the "danger in this whole process."

Weiss says it’s ‘much easier’ to hire fast-food workers now

Judge on Wednesday's (6/28) Halftime Report reported that Tom Lee is declaring that investors "should expect 12% or more in the 2nd half of the year."

Steve Weiss took issue with Lee's note about broadening gains and scoffed that "the gains are narrow. Period. End of story" and scoffed that stock rallies have only broadened out "for a day or 2 here and there."

"I don't know what he's talking about. I often don't know what he's talking about," Weiss said of Lee.

Weiss said he knows a fast food operator who says it's "much easier to hire now" and "they're not paying up."

Wonder if Judge still thinks this is the ‘golden age’ of air travel

After laboriously retracing AAPL's trillion-dollar milestones, Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (6/28) Halftime Report said what matters is "How fast does it go to 3 and a half, or 4 trillion," adding there's "optimism" about this ludicrous headset.

"The stock's off to the races," said Joe, who congratulated Dan Ives for some reason on Dan's comments about AAPL.

Steve Weiss scoffed that trillion-dollar AAPL conversations are "ridiculous" and "asinine."

"Why is it asinine?" Judge demanded.

"Because that's not how you analyze stocks, by the next trillion-dollar bite," Weiss said, adding the "narrative is all wrong."

"You seem angry," Judge told Weiss, wondering if it's because Weiss doesn't own AAPL.

Amy Raskin called AAPL's 30 multiple "crazy" and asserted that people are "chasing" the stock.

Joe said AAPL was last at $3 trillion in "early January of 2022" during a "crescendo of speculation within the market." Whereas "this time around," people are looking to move money from cash into stocks. Joe said AAPL gets to $200 "purely on momentum alone."

Weiss and Raskin claimed AMZN is more appealing than AAPL with "high barriers to entry," according to Raskin, though Weiss said he doesn't see much downside to AAPL.

"What's Amazon's growth right now. Is that so spectacular?" Judge asked.

Weiss said it's not spectacular but is "reaccelerating." Weiss rattled off reasons for being long MSFT and warned that AAPL is "really tied to China" and that supposedly no one is "assessing" that.

Joe wondered how we can "question" the valuation of AAPL and not that of AMZN and noted AMZN isn't buying back its stock. Weiss insisted AMZN is "shedding costs" including people and "they're gonna outsource all that."

"I've owned Nvidia forever," said Amy, who said the gains have been "unspeakable" (even though she spoke about them).

Judge and Amy can’t seem to agree on which NKE multiple is the one they should be talking about

On Wednesday's (6/28) Halftime Report, Sara Eisen, from Portugal, reported on her conversation with Jay Powell and how Jay sees "more work to do" against inflation.

Steve Weiss grumbled that there's a "high likelihood of recession going into next year."

Joe Terranova said the Fed is "less of a variable" for stock prices than it was a while ago. "They've caught up very quickly," Joe explained.

Judge said Ed Yardeni sees us moving into a "rolling expansion." Weiss of course protested, "Where's he gettin' that from."

It actually took until the 25th minute in this episode to talk about John Deere stock. Joe said he's personally owned it since 2021, longer than it's been in the JOET. Joe said the momentum in DE is getting "somewhat stretched."

But Joe didn't seem that high on CTVA.

Amy Raskin said this is a good opportunity to buy REGN.

Joe said "inventory issues persist" for NKE. He doesn't see it regaining momentum on Thursday.

Judge and Amy quibbled over whether NKE's multiple is 28 or 31.

Leslie likes the stress tests

At the halfway break of Wednesday's (6/28) Halftime Report, Judge promised to discuss bank stress tests, which usually means Mike Mayo coming up later gushing about how (not an exact quote) "These banks can survive 10 times these headwinds!!!!"

Instead, it was Leslie Picker joining Judge at Post 9 saying, "I have to admit, it's kind of one of my favorite days of the year."

Leslie explained that it's an "off year" for many large regionals who only have to participate in the tests every other year.

Steve Weiss pointed out it's been a tough year for banks and the IPO market hasn't been there and "M&A's been sorta dead."

Amy Raskin is making ILMN one of her 2nd-half picks; she noted the tough year it's had with Carl Icahn's involvement. Amy also likes CGNX.

At the end of the show, Judge brought up NFLX. Joe Terranova said it was added to the JOET in April; he wants to own it personally, but "it's getting away from me a little bit here" as it's winning the "content war." Joe even mentioned the "Arnold documentary" and how "you're not gonna get that on Disney."

Amy Raskin said she's going to Disney Tokyo this summer. She thinks DIS and NFLX in the end will be "the 2 winners" in streaming.

Judge claims this is the ‘golden age’ for air travel

Hailing DAL's results, Jim Lebenthal dialed in to Tuesday's (6/27) Halftime Report to say "the market is starting to believe" Ed Bastian.

"I'm not sellin' a share," Jim announced. He suggested if you don't own it, you can "nibble."

Jenny Harrington, who actually was on the day's panel at Post 9, also touted JBLU with an "identical thesis" to what Jim said but said, unlike Jim, she doesn't think a recession is necessarily a problem for airline stocks; it depends on "what kind of recession."

Judge questioned if we aren't passing by the "golden age (snicker) (curious term) for these, for air travel on the backside of the pandemic."

Jenny said "we need to think about where they came from," pointing to pre-pandemic stock levels.

Josh Brown though shrugged that "the rallies in this group are just always short-lived." Jenny said it's a "little bit different this time" and said she doesn't know how someone defines "golden age" (snicker). Judge said he'd define it by "record earnings" and "record numbers of people traveling" and high ticket prices, "that's not going to stay."

"The industry's still normalizing" with demand that can sustain it, Jenny said. Brown questioned if the slide in fuel prices reverses. "I still like them as much," Jenny said.

Judge chuckles about Josh asking Jenny a ‘loaded question’ (a/k/a Kinda like Joe demanding Weiss explain why industrials are up and Weiss saying he’s never regarded airlines as industrials)

Jenny Harrington on Tuesday's (6/27) Halftime Report made the case for STX despite the P.E. ratio, claiming "earnings are an absolute trough" and that earnings and share price "are always disconnected."

Jenny told Judge she looks at INTC the same way "a hundred percent," which caught the attention of Josh Brown. (But not like WHR, which Brown, to this point, was way wrong about.)

Josh asked Jenny if she really thinks INTC's strategy will work, "because literally nobody else does." Jenny insisted "That's not true" while Judge chuckled, "Talk about a loaded question."

Josh continued, "People that used to work there don't believe it."

Jenny then did research at her seat, looking up recent INTC financials on her computer while Josh supplied some stats from memory. "I think that semiconductors are like the energy space right now where you need all of everything," Jenny said. Josh kept pushing on the "foundry" business.

‘TGA rebuild’ heard for the first time on Halftime Report

Josh Brown opened Tuesday's (6/27) Halftime Report by saying he's been speaking "ebulliently" about the stock market because of the "dispersion" and "different catch-up trades" available.

Jenny Harrington too said the "other 493" stocks are working, and she rattled off a bunch of stocks that are apparently gaining including WHR, which Josh mocked May 18 when it was only $133.

Rich Saperstein, making a rare appearance at Post 9 and obviously playing the Weiss role (but NOT saying 3 times that this is the easiest market to analyze he's ever seen), cautioned that there's "headwinds" to stocks and that stocks have been rising "only because of P.E. multiple expansion."

Brown conceded to Saperstein that year to date, the average stock hasn't done that great, but anyone can "cherry pick" his/her own time frame, and 25% of the Dow transports "are now at 52-week highs," the highest since early 2022.

Rich said "there's a clear pent-up demand for services" including travel. "I'm looking forward," Saperstein said, asserting data shows a slowing economy.

Saperstein said his shop is "overweight" tech regardless and is "in good shape."

Jenny talked up REITs and SLG and later talked up VTR. For the latter, Josh asked Jenny if she had a "brochure for Steve Weiss," which was a pretty good line.

Judge asked Rich what would make him more positive. Rich said he wants to get past the "TGA rebuild." Judge had to define the "Treasury General Account" for viewers. Rich also said he'd have to see inflation "towards" 3%, "and I think unemployment's gotta move higher," and isn't that something to root for.

Later, Judge noted all 3 of Josh Brown's Stock Summit picks — ULTA, CB and NEE — are down year to date. "I only own Nextera out of the whole group," Brown said, for those wondering about the merits of this exercise.

Rich Saperstein said he bought BA, which will make Jim Lebenthal happy. Rich also called VST a stock he likes; he's buying more, "an amazing cash flow story."

Jenny is up big in UBER (this writer is long UBER) and BGS, though KSS is down 13%. Jenny sees "upside to go" in UBER. But she would change her sector pick of XLF. Josh Brown said UBER is "personally my largest position," though he conceded "they're not profitable" but "almost there" on a full-year basis.

Joe’s call of MRNA being ‘very low risk’ on Feb. 6 is just as bad as Weiss making it a Stock Summit pick

Judge on Monday's (6/26) Halftime Report decided to delve into updates on the Stock Summit.

At the beginning of the year, Steve Weiss made MRNA one of his Stock Summit picks. Judge on Monday pointed out that Weiss "sold a large portion" of his MRNA. (This writer is long MRNA.)

Weiss explained that he's "bleeding it out over time" and he's "never seen" a CEO sell this much stock, though he's also never seen a CEO "own so much stock." Weiss said it'll take until year-end to get news on some of its vaccine developments.

What Judge didn't bother to bring up was that Joe Terranova, who was also on Monday's show and rather combative (see below), declared MRNA a "very low risk" trade back on Feb. 6 when it was $170.

Judge asked Sarat Sethi about his Stock Summit picks. Sarat said MS has been caught up in troubles of the financials but he'd buy more if it pulled back. He said to "keep on buying" HLN.

Joe interrupts Weiss 3 or 4 times (basically demanding that Weiss declare this a ‘momentum’ market)

Things got good on Monday's (6/26) Halftime Report when Joe Terranova, despite trying to give one of the most long-winded speeches in recent memory, eventually asked Steve Weiss why airlines could be bolstering industrials if the economy's sliding toward recession.

Weiss first claimed, "I've always maintained the airlines are not industrial companies. They're consumer companies-"

"Steve you can't just dismiss it," Joe cut in, his 3rd or 4th interruption during this dialogue in which Joe sort of assumed Judge's role of outlining the questions.

"I'm not dismissing it. If you let me talk Joe, I'll tell you," Weiss said.

"OK," Joe said.

Weiss said if you want to look at industrials at a P.E. of 21 and say "everything's OK" because of that, then there's no reason to do fundamental work. Weiss said doing the real work "is to either sell those stocks or to buy others where the market's lower," which is hardly fundamental or scientific, but whatever.

Weiss eventually explained that industrials are trading on the belief we've had trough earnings, and Weiss doesn't think we've had trough earnings yet.

Joe again said "megacap put" and predicted a "tremendous amount of buying" in the event tech pulls back.

Anastasia Amoroso agreed that tech is the place where people will buy the dip.

Weiss says ‘day trading’
not a ‘pejorative word’

It was Judge, not Steve Weiss, who brought up DE on Monday's (6/26) Halftime Report; Weiss said he sold it because it's been "a great trade."

Judge questioned if Weiss is just trying to be a "day trader." Weiss said "day trading to me is not a pejorative word," then he said he's "not a day trader" for "90% of my portfolio."

Suggest 3,126, get a mention on CNBC

Right off the bat on Monday's (6/26) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova got to say one of his favorite words (no, not "Palo Alto" or "LPX"), "rebalance."

Judge said Mike Wilson thinks "fair value" for the S&P is ... 3,126 (snicker).

Steve Weiss continued to insist that the market's going nowhere except for "7 stocks."

Rationalizing that 3,126 number, Weiss claimed, "It doesn't necessarily mean we'll get there."

"I don't see huge risk to those megacap names because that's been the safety trade," Weiss said.

Sarat Sethi gushed about the UBER upgrade, stating, "I have cost basis in the 20s when I doubled up last year, uh, to take tax losses." Joe said there's "nothing but clear skies" if it crosses $45.90. (This writer is long UBER.)

Sarat suggested DIS could be a "value play."

Seema Mody gets exclusive interview with Tim Cook

Well into Friday's (6/23) Halftime Report, CNBC's Seema Mody outlined details of the Biden-Modi-tech CEOs meeting.

But viewers got a real treat at the end of the program, which included footage of a great little sidewalk interview of Tim Cook by Seema. Tim said it was an "incredible discussion" at the White House meeting with Modi (that's correct, spelled differently than Seema's name) and a "great state visit."

(Um, he didn't really say anything controversial, or headline-worthy, or declare whether he agrees with Steve Weiss that this is the easiest market in history to analyze, in case you thought he might.) (Still. It's Tim Cook.)

Meanwhile, Jason Snipe said he still likes the "fundamental tailwinds of earnings" in energy stocks and predicts "upside coming." Jim Lebenthal mentioned "real facts" about shale production headwinds and "cuts at OPEC."

Rob Sechan said EOG was one of his Stock Summit picks.

Responding to a Grade My Trade question, Jim Lebenthal said he doesn't think QCOM is a "value trap."

Frank Holland: ‘A lot of people think this whole thing’s a bubble’

On Friday's (6/23) Halftime Report, guest host Frank Holland made a stark pronouncement to Jim Lebenthal: "A lot of people think this whole thing's a bubble."

Jim asked for a definition of "this thing." Frank suggested it's the "Magnificent 7" and that even though it doesn't include PANW, it's kind of the same thing.

Jim said it's "prudent" to trim some big gainers, but as for bubble talk, "beauty is in the eye of the beholder."

Jim noted that he saw that "Nvidia is now bigger than the entire real estate sector."

How Kari turns a 40 multiple into a 23

Liz Ann Sonders, the star guest who has been on television a long time but isn't on the Halftime Report very often, said on Friday's (6/23) episode she thinks we've been in "some version of a rolling recession for more than a year."

Liz Ann is keeping an eye on hours worked in labor reports.

Kari Firestone, who's long KMX but wasn't part of the show's panel Friday, dialed in to say the stock move is "fantastic." Guest host Frank Holland said it's trading at 40 times forward, a "pretty rich valuation." Kari said "the way we look at it," if you adjust for "extraordinary items," it's 23 times. Jason Snipe said he'll continue to own AZO.

Rob Sechan said he sold AMT and is "totally" out of it. But he bought EXPD.

Frank asked Jim Lebenthal why HD isn't doing better if everyone is staying in their homes and not moving. Jim said "inflation last year was killing the discretionary spend on, on home renovation. It's just really that simple."

Frank doesn’t say who his own stylist is

Friday's (6/23) Halftime Report, guest hosted by Frank Holland, began with Jason Snipe explaining how he trimmed NVDA and PANW, though Jason has "a lot of conviction" about both names and "we believe in these stories."

Rob Sechan joked about dressing in "color coordination" with Frank. Rob said his stylist is "David August."

When he wasn't discussing clothing, Rob referred to how he talked about trimming MSFT "last Thursday" because of valuations that are "a little stretched."

Rob said the "hard data" indicates there won't be a hard landing "unless something breaks."

Jim Lebenthal said after you get past whatever rate hikes are left this year, "2024 starts to look pretty bright."

Judge asks ‘Who’s in charge’; he was referring to stock market direction, not the Kremlin

Judge on Thursday's (6/22) Halftime Report decreed the theme would be "who's in charge" of the market, bulls or bears.

"The last week has made me more negative," Jim Lebenthal admitted. Jim said the market is up "about 22% off the October highs (sic)." Judge corrected him to "October lows."

Josh Brown suggested the rally has been broadening and said there "is room" for small stocks to gain. Bryn Talkington said she doesn't like the small-cap trade because they're very rate-sensitive and economically sensitive. Bill Baruch though contended the bulls are in the "driver's seat" over 4,300, while the bears "have no shot" at the driver's seat until we drop below 4,200.

Bryn said she continues to sell calls against part of her TSLA position and says the stock is "pricey." (Bryn also recapped her trades of TSLA last year, as she does all the time, but not as often as Steve Weiss says that this is the easiest market to analyze.)

Judge said BA was the biggest laggard in the Dow, apparently because of the Spirit labor stoppage. Jim said it's "just 1 step back" in BA's ongoing choppy progress.

Kari’s head-turning commentary

Wednesday's (6/21) Halftime Report was basically overwhelmed by Joe Terranova retracing all the buying and selling dates of half the stocks in the JOET.

Joe said Wednesday's market reaction is a "nice reminder" that this isn't the time to buy non-profitable tech companies.

"Rates are clearly going up," Joe asserted.

Judge asked Kari Firestone about strategists who are now talking about FOMO rallies. Kari said those strategists have been very conservative this year and only "changed their tune in the last few days."

Joe sold CRWD; he explained in a bit of a speech that he bought in early March at 126 and he's "somewhat troubled" by the move in yields and he thinks CRWD will be "challenged" in that environment. Joe started talking about potentially buying PANW (yes, that one again) or FTNT but thinks he'll get a better price. Jason Snipe still backs PANW but said he may trim because of the big move it's already had this year.

Joe also sold gold and had to retrace when he bought it. He said he'd still lean toward owning "some" gold, but the "deflationary effect" of owning gold "seems to be dissipating."

Joe reiterated a point from a day earlier, stating this will be a "positive year for equities" unless there's a "crazy exogenous shock."

Kari Firestone went into an explanation as to how anyone "putting money to work" in the stock market has to buy megacap tech because they represent so much of the market. Kari for whatever curious reason kept turning her head left to right while speaking as though she had to address Jason Snipe every 2 seconds.

Joe said NKE has been "brutal" since it was put in the JOET. But Joe said UBER, another JOET holding, has one of the "best-looking charts." (This writer is long UBER.)

Kari Firestone said she hasn't owned energy since 2018. Jason Snipe said energy hasn't had a good year, but oil is "mispriced," a quote Judge sorta mocked.

Judge: Market might think Powell is ‘bluffing’ about July

Wednesday's (6/21) Halftime Report had to be good ... because producers cut away from Jerome Powell's testimony to air it.

Well, actually ...

Judge initially told Steve Liesman that Powell "very much sounded like a Fed chair who was justifying his latest rate hike, not one who just paused."

Steve said Powell indicated "rates are probably going up" at the July meeting, but there was "no follow" on that possible "second hike."

Steve said Powell said the "speed" of getting to the right rate level is no longer important, not like it was a year ago.

Judge wondered "why they just didn't hike another 25, uh, a week ago." Steve said if there's "no hurry" to do the hikes, you can "put the market on notice" and do "a little less harm" by going slowly. Judge said maybe the market thinks Powell is "bluffing" about July.

Joe: Bears ‘defeated’ in 2023 (a/k/a nice Nike footwear, Judge)

The 17th minute of Tuesday's (6/20) Halftime Report brought one of the show's most eye-opening pronouncements in months, courtesy of Joe Terranova (no, not the goofy money-market-challenge thing that left even Judge scratching his head).

Joe bluntly declared, "I think we have already confirmed that the bears will be defeated this year unless you see an exogenous event," and if stocks slump a bit in the 3rd quarter, people will see that as a chance to get in.

Joe suggested staying with the "megacap put," a term we honestly don't think we've heard yet. #Hurryupandpatentit,Joe

Judge seems to think the JOET’s rules can prevent it from building successful long-term positions

Judge opened Tuesday's (6/20) Halftime Report asking Josh Brown if AAPL can get to $3 trillion. (And we remember when James Altucher was predicting $1 trillion or $2 trillion and achieving headlines back in the day).

Josh noted the strengths of AAPL and said it is "prodigiously purchasing its own stock," which can explain why its market cap may not rise the same as the share price.

Steve Weiss said AAPL has moved not because of the fundamentals, but because it represents "safety."

Weiss admitted he has a little "sour grapes" for not owning AAPL, but, "Frankly, it just doesn't deserve the multiple that it has on the financial fundamental performance."

Weiss said, "Apple exists in large part because of the telcos. I'm exaggerating it, but if the telcos didn't support the upgrades, where would it be?"

Joe Terranova said AAPL is "a little bit rich" at 31 times but pointed to the difference between the equal-weight S&P and market-cap S&P as a big reason why you have to stay in the name.

Judge noted, "not to be critical," but Joe "learned the hard way" about the JOET trying to "play around" with trading AAPL rather than just owning it. Joe insisted, "Momentum fell apart," and it's been "problematic for year-to-date returns," and the JOET can't just stay in a name because of "the rules."

Liz Young said "I don't know what the right multiple is" for AAPL, but "all of these stocks will give a little bit back in the near term because it just doesn't make sense to sustain this valuation."

Josh Brown said people have exposure to AAPL in index or retirement funds, so the question is whether they want to be "overweight" the stock.

Liz can join the beauty conversation absolutely any time

Judge on Tuesday's (6/20) Halftime Report noted ULTA's upgrade by Loop.

Joe Terranova agreed this is an "opportunity" to buy a "best in breed" franchise in "luxury beauty" (as opposed to, apparently, discount beauty).

Steve Weiss boasted, "I'm best of breed in beauty."

Josh Brown said he forgot that he picked ULTA for the Stock Summit. "The business is actually getting better, not worse," Brown said, though comps are a problem. He said he doesn't own it but it's on the "radar."

Liz Young said, "I was really enjoying all of these guys talking about luxury beauty products."

It only took Weiss 19 minutes to mention DE

Steve Weiss in the 19th minute of Tuesday's (6/20) Halftime Report mentioned DE, with an apparent botch, saying he added "when it got down to 448" (sic probably meant 348, because 448 is the 52-week high).

He said it's been a "great trade" but the stock is "vulnerable" according to his "economic view" (snicker).

Judge reported that Raymond James reiterated CMG as outperform and that it's in the JOET, and oh my, all that did was take viewers round and round on when exactly the stock was owned by the JOET.

Joe Terranova referred to "lost momentum" by CMG in January and "we had the quarter where we were not in the stock; we've been in the stock since April of 2021," which only leaves us wondering what quarter he/it wasn't in it. Joe said "it's best in breed in the quick-serve restaurant business" with "exceptional management strategies." He thinks it's a "must-own" in quick-serve restaurants.

Josh Brown took up the new crypto exchange, EDX, which he said is about matching buyers and sellers and "not taking custody." Brown said enthusiasm for bitcoin is "unkillable." Steve Weiss said Citadel is not saying there's "intrinsic value" in crypto, they're just saying "there's a market here." Weiss said it's clear that SEC leaders want big players here, they "don't want the Samuel Bankman-Frieds of the world."

Weiss said he owned FDX "a while ago" and made a "good sale." He thinks it looks cheap. Liz Young is "OK with transports."

Josh Brown said 85 is support in DIS and if it breaks that, "you're gonna need a teddy bear."

"They don't have a solution for the balance sheet yet," Weiss said of DIS.

Weiss flummoxed by rally, says he’s a ‘tenuous long’ (a/k/a it takes Weiss 11 minutes to mention DE)

Josh Brown opened Friday's (6/16) Halftime Report (guest hosted by Frank Holland) saying this year's performance is "why investing gets tricky," that headlines this year wouldn't have indicated a robust rally. But he thinks there's "room to run."

Brown pointed to an RSI of 60 and said we're in an environment in which we're seeing the "average stock in breakout mode."

Kari Firestone said the rally only started to broaden "in just really the last month."

"Interest rates are peaking," Kari declared, which drew attention later.

As for being in recession, Kari said "we are not yet" and may not be, and that the market multiple is "not bad."

Finally given a chance, Steve Weiss said, "This is the easy- one of the easiest markets I've ever seen to analyze, and one of the toughest markets I've ever seen to invest in. This is purely a momentum-driven market. Period. End of story."

We could probably disagree with everything in that above paragraph, but we'll let Weiss keep going.

"Interest rates have not peaked, Kari," Weiss challenged.

Jason Snipe said he believes we "definitely" have more short-term momentum. "Breadth is starting to really widen out," Jason said.

Frank mentioned Michael Hartnett's headline-making opinion, something about 2000 and 2008 in which we've got a "big rally before big collapse."

Weiss said he's "pretty long" but it's a "tenuous long." Weiss mentioned buying DE at 350, which seems like his only successful trade in months.

‘Slipping into an expansion’

Picking up where he has always left off, Tom Lee sounded the bull case on Friday's (6/16) Halftime Report, although admittedly, this year he looks a lot more right than last year.

Lee, at Post 9, said "Too many economists think this is a traditional bsiness cycle, Fed cycle, 'tighten till you break the economy.' But it's really an inflation war, and the Fed will slow down or even stop when inflation expectations break."

Lee said the UMich survey showed an "utter collapse" in consumer inflation expectations; "I don't know if people saw it."

Lee continued, "Instead of us falling into recession, we're actually slipping into an expansion."

Lee mentioned "Jack (sic) Gorman at Morgan Stanley."

Lee's S&P target of 4,700 makes him, according to guest host Frank Holland, "the biggest bull on the Street."

Weiss ‘waiting’ on HD

Like Steve Weiss with John Deere stock, Josh Brown on Friday's (6/16) Halftime Report reiterated his every-other-show declaration/reminder that there's an "AI bubble" forming and NVDA is the "grand marshal" leading the "parade."

Kari Firestone suggested "We're now just beginning to see the momentum in Adobe."

Jason Snipe made the case again for PANW, the stock Joe Terranova should've bought a decade ago and just held and not messed around trading it, noting it's up over 75% this year; Jason likes it but thinks he'll "likely trim it as well" near quarter's end.

Kari Firestone discussed PYPL, "which we believe in," which has been a "terrible stock" though "perhaps it's finding a bottom."

Josh Brown said he can't say on a "blanket basis" whether financial stocks are good or bad.

Jason Snipe said if interest rates come down next year, there will be a "flood of activity" in the housing market. Josh Brown said "there's just not enough houses," which explains why rates can be raised so much and homebuilders can be strong "as we realize home prices are not going to fall apart just because mortgage rates have gone up."

Steve Weiss said of HD, he's "waiting for it to come down further." Weiss said HD is not going to be "disintermediated by Amazon."

Fans of Brian Sullivan got a treat when Sully guest-hosted Closing Bell for Judge on Friday.

‘We’re done doing rates’

On Thursday's (6/15) Halftime Report, Rob Sechan said his shop "bought META at the beginning of the year."

But Josh Brown said he bought ORCL "before it was a hundred."

Panelists didn't sound too much in awe of the Federal Reserve. Rob Sechan bluntly declared "the Fed hasn't mattered" since early in the year.

Jim Lebenthal, who's suddenly Judge's buddy now that the S&P is up 150 points, asserted that "it just doesn't make sense that they raise rates" if headline CPI comes in at 3.2% next month.

Judge said, "They don't care about the headline ... they care about the core."

Jim insisted, "It doesn't make sense."

Bryn Talkington rather boldly suggested "we're done doing rates" and that "there is no way we are gonna keep these rates for 2 years out."

"The bears are firmly losing," Bryn said, but she said the "AI flood" has "gone too far too fast."

Honestly, Bryn's living-room setup just seems soooooooo pandemic nowadays. #timetomoveon #alltheaction'satPost9now

Bob Pisani gushed that CAVA is "the first company to raise the range since 2021."

Josh Brown said he sold DOCU; he "wasn't really blown away" by the earnings call and thinks there are other things to invest in.

Jim Lebenthal touted WYNN as undervalued as the Halftime Report graphics crew struggled to spell Contessa Brewer's name.

Judge hailed TSLA's 13-day winning streak and asked Bryn what to do. She said she owns half a position outright, and the other half, she sells calls against.

Bryn called Elon Musk "the Thomas Edison of our time."

From ‘dovish hike’
to ‘hawkish pause’

Jeffrey Gundlach, who was an excellent post-Fed guest on Wednesday's (6/14) Closing Bell, told Judge a couple of times that the Fed is "kinda Mr. Magoo-like again."

Jeffrey said they went from a "dovish hike" at the last meeting to a "hawkish pause."

Gundlach asserted, "I don't believe the Fed's gonna raise rates again," and he thinks Jay Powell "has a really difficult job right now," that we may be at a "turning point" for the economy and inflation, and yet they're still looking at "lagging" indicators.

Jeffrey opined that the Fed is "overstating the inflation risk at this time."

He noted, "Commodity prices are just dead in the water."

Jeffrey also said the stock market is "exhibiting signs of a mania."

Jeffrey also gave a shout-out to his own (in some way) Buffalo AKG Art Museum.

Also on Closing Bell, Cameron Dawson said Jay Powell "didn't play the hawkish greatest hits."

Joe says Judge tossed him a ‘softball’ question

Kari Firestone on Wednesday's (6/14) Halftime Report said the UNH selloff was an "overreaction" and went on to explain why that is the case.

Joe Terranova said that's all fine, but he has to look at the technicals and apparently isn't impressed.

Joe asserted, "You cannot dispute that you have broken momentum in a large majority of health-care stocks."

That's when Judge observed to Joe that "your strategy is, is kinda tough to, uh, execute in some regards on a consistent basis. If-"

"Momentum changes," Kari Firestone cut in.

Judge continued that Joe did a rebalance when tech "lost all of its momentum," but "then tech regains its momentum, the stocks end up, up 30% by the time you're able to do your rebalance."

"You don't realize that you're lobbing me a softball," Joe told Judge.

But, "You never know where momentum's gonna go," Judge said, and by the time Joe can make a move, "it may be, quote-unquote, too late."

"Not true. Not true at all," Joe insisted, saying he's up 50% in NVDA and 25% in ADBE and 25% in NFLX and 10% in AAPL. "The moves that needed to be made were made," Joe said.

Joe said he has to outperform the S&P, Nasdaq, Russell, Dow "and maybe some overseas index." Joe boasted, "We outperformed in 2022 ... because of the health care names."

Then Joe declared, "Momentum, which has not been present in the market since the pandemic, eventually will evolve into a trend. And I want to be there for the evolution of that trend." Joe also made an example of META, basically saying it's headed "more towards 384" than a correction.

Kari Firestone talked up ADBE; Judge countered, "Not everything's gonna just get the AI halo forever." Kari explained how she bought on the way down and said she's "only recently" made money in the name. Joe said it's "probably" gotten a little ahead of itself.

Now that the S&P’s up, Judge starts diverting hectoring jabs from Jim to Joe (a/k/a Joe actually says with a straight face that money market investors have a ‘real problem’)

"We're all expecting a hawkish pause," said Stephanie Link at the top of Wednesday's (6/14) Halftime, adding, "It's not healthy to have 10 companies, 10 stocks, account for 90% of the returns year to date."

Joe Terranova curiously offered, "I think the most challenged position to have in particular ... is those that bought money market funds." If you're sitting in one after today, "You have a real problem, because, how are you now gonna time your way back into the market," Joe said.

Joe said the Fed, "for the better part of the last year," was behind, "basically jogging when the market was running." (Gee, we've never heard that before.) (And Jeremy Siegel was on the show later too.)

That raised Judge's eyebrows. "Why do you think people are gonna pull their money out of money market funds if- if you, if we get a hawkish pause. Wh- Why would they do that; I don't see that at all," Judge said.

Joe responded, "First of all," if you're in a money market fund, "relative to equities, you're massively underperforming." And if we've had "peak yields," the "soft landing's coming back into play" and money market yields will "begin to deteriorate as we move forward."

Kari Firestone said she doesn't think the Fed will be "particular hawkish" and the market reaction will depend on "tone."

Stephanie Link, as she always does, talked about how she already made so much money in META so it's OK to trim.

Jeremy Siegel’s comments on Judge’s show sound a lot different than the Yahoo! Finance headline

Judge asked the star guest of Wednesday's (6/14) Halftime Report, Jeremy Siegel, if he's a "believer" in the rally, and Judge said he saw a headline "somewhere" (translation: Siegel's weekly commentary for WidsomTree, published Monday) that said Siegel thinks the rally's "gonna end soon."

Jeremy chuckled and said NVDA is "selling for 123 times earnings" and Nasdaq is selling for 30.

Judge cut in to say, regarding the first of those names, "Well it's like 50 times ... 50 times forward earnings."

"Let me finish," Siegel tried to continue; "OK, a little less."

"A little?" Judge said.

Jeremy said the S&P is at 20, where he thinks it should be.

But Jeremy said this market can still run; "there are probably more momentum players now than there've been, not- you know, 20 years ago." (Well, there sure was one on Wednesday's Halftime, outlining the strategy from Judge's "softball" question.)

Jeremy predicted a "startling" dot plot from the "hawkish" pause Wednesday.

"The inflation is basically over," Jeremy said, not unlike what Jeffrey Gundlach said later in the day.

Judge, though, told Siegel, "I'm still confused though as to whether you think, professor, that this rally is about to run out of gas or not."

"It doesn't look like it's gonna run out of gas," Jeremy said, though he said there may be a "little selloff" on Wednesday when people notice the dot plot.

Jeremy said he could see tech's outperformance "widening" in the short term, though he said tech is "slightly overvalued."

Judge asked Jeremy if he still expects a recession. Jeremy said he sees a "50% probability" but that it would be "mild."

That was all not nearly as blunt as the lede sentence from Yahoo Finance about Siegel's Monday post; Yahoo says, "The stock-market rally will run out of steam, the US economy will sink into a mild recession, and the Federal Reserve won't hike interest rates any higher, Jeremy Siegel has predicted."

Stephanie Link twice said "for shoure."

People who want to be arrested ...

The biggest news in the world this past week has been Steve Weiss' buy/sell price points on DE the federal charges levied against a former public official.

What this page finds astonishing is that national politicians and media alike actually seem to think the person charged didn't want this case to happen.

"He brought this upon himself by hiding the documents ..." "If he had simply turned over the documents, he wouldn't have been charged ..."

Right.

See what's going on?

You'd think after 8 years of this, a lot of people would've realized that the endgame is publicity, not presidency.

Maybe not.

S&P’s up a hundred points; Judge suddenly treats Jim like a hero

Judge opened Tuesday's (6/13) Halftime Report telling Jim Lebenthal, "I feel like you deserve the first word here," because Jim has "taken so much heat."

Jim said the rally started 2 weeks ago on the Labor report. "They should be done," Jim said of the Fed.

But, said Stephanie Link, "I'm not so sure looking at these numbers today that the Fed is done," because the core number is "still much too hot and high."

Jim cut in to say that "Zillow rents are really declining" and CPI is "very much lagging." Jim said there's an "air pocket in CPI" for both rents and used cars.

Sarat Sethi said the Fed won't raise much more if at all, though it's not cutting either, and we're in a "soft slowdown."

Jim pointed to the "incredible divergence" between equal-weight and market-cap S&P 500, the former being way behind, so there's "a lot of room."

Then, apparently remembering he's been hectoring Jim for literally months, every episode, on Jim's market outlook, Judge then told Jim, "You've been- you've been too positive for too long. I think that's, that's fair to say. You haven't been right the whole way. I'm giving ya love now because this market's been working in your favor and maybe continuing to go in your direction but this hasn't been all, you know, smooth sailing ..."

"I think I've taken quite a bit of heat for being too early and too positive," Jim chuckled, but adding "I am havin' a good time since that, uh, Labor report 2 weeks ago."

Jim questions why Judge is hectoring him about Advanced Micro Devices

Things took a curious turn on Tuesday's (6/13) Halftime Report after Jim Lebenthal said he's going to build a position in NVDA but won't "rush in here at $400," he'll gradually build it up to a 4% position, and Judge later followed by asking, "Why don't you have AMD?"

Jim chuckled, "I don't own AMD because of the price."

"Price?" Judge questioned.

"Can we talk about what I do own," Jim said (as if the show hasn't spent 75 episodes just this year talking about just that), chuckling, "I own 25 stocks. You're gonna talk about the 3,975 I don't?"

Judge said, "You can't tell me that you don't own AMD because of the price when you just told me that you're gonna buy Nvidia arguably by the time the sun goes down."

Jim said that's a "great point" but Nvidia is "different," even though it's not "reasonably priced."

"What's AMD's P.E.," Judge asked.

"45," said Stephanie Link, who tried to demonstrate that she knows the P.E. ratio of every chip stock (and probably does. That and $3.95 will get you a cup of ...).

Jim protested, "I mean, I didn't wake up today thinking anything about AMD, right, I mean, do we really wanna keep doing this? I'll talk to you about Nvidia ..."

Judge then wondered about Jim owning GM and NXPI, "I wonder if you have too much exposure to autos." Jim said that's a "valid point" but he said "you want to be in chips right now."

Judge said you have to be in the "right chips."

Jim said, "I think I am."

Judge said, "Qualcomm hasn't done anything."

Jim said, "It's undervalued and it's coming back- well actually over time, it has done very well."

Jim went on to add that "we just simply need more autos in the world and the country in particular."

"But that doesn't drive stock prices," Judge persisted.

Jim later said of QCOM, "Somebody has to point out, it's not a dog of a stock." Stephanie Link said it's up 13% YTD and "has been a dog relative to every other- pretty much every other semiconductor company." Jim insisted "3 years and 5 years," it's outperformed the S&P.

Waiting for ‘new management’ at PYPL

Judge on Tuesday's (6/13) Halftime Report said Cathie Wood has been buying "a bunch" of META.

Sarat Sethi said ORCL had been dead money but now is "not cheap anymore" since its recent burst, but he still likes it.

Sarat is long PYPL, he said he owns it for the "new management" but that he's "wondering what's going on over there. ... It might just be you have to break up the company again."

Sarat said he owns RBLX as a "speculative stock" and he said if it does well, it'll be a "home run."

Stephanie Link suggested DG will be having an "investment cycle headwind" into next year. She said TGT is in "better shape" this year.

Jim Lebenthal said he thinks RIG will be a "double-digit stock." Jim said day rates have been climbing "significantly."

Judge referred to CNBC's gorgeous Pippa Stevens as "Pips."

Weiss notices the reality-TV selections offered on CNBC ad nauseum

Judge on Monday's (6/12) Halftime Report noted that Mike Wilson has been "The Bear" (snicker) and is "refusing to get off of this idea that he has."

Steve Weiss explained that it's a "tale of 2 markets" (sigh) and, as he always does, tried to claim that "most stocks are barely off their lows," which is a typical Halftime Report line of reasoning, that when the S&P doesn't go in the direction you predict, then that's the time when it's not really reflecting the market.

Weiss said Wilson has been "largely right." In the show's best line, which Judge didn't even acknowledge, Weiss said we could just focus on the indexes and then "we can all go home and play replays of 'Undercover Boss' all day long," but pro investors need to pick "the right stock," which of course includes Weiss' favorite stock, DE (provided you buy it when it's way down).

Judge told Weiss that the problem with that kind of call is it's "too nuanced."

Bryn Talkington explained, "Last year, Mike Wilson was the hero, and Tom Lee was the zero. This year, you've had a total flip-flop." But Bryn said that aside from Nvidia, it's not tech earnings growth, it's all "multiple expansion." Weiss claimed that's right and that companies don't "deserve" multiple expansion.

Judge suggests the bear case may be based on ‘outdated methodology’

Jonathan Krinsky told Judge on Monday's (6/12) Halftime Report that an 8-month bear-market rally "can happen."

Judge asked Bryn Talkington about TSLA, only to have Bryn's audio fail. Steve Weiss said he's not buying TSLA though he's "missed it." He said you have to buy "when everybody hates 'em."

Bryn's audio got restored and she said of TSLA, "I just think this story continues to get better."

Joe Terranova says a big inflation drop is already "priced in" to the market.

Steve Weiss rehashed all the points he's made in recent weeks, that 4,200 could be support (that's his best point), that hedge funds are positioned bearish, that there's a "different class of investors" that are willing to keep buying. Judge cited Mark Zandi seeing lower risks of recession and suggested bearish folks may be employing "outdated methodology."

Bryn Talkington said this bull market, however defined, is "really tough for the bears."

Judge reverted to the "in charge" question with Joe. Joe said it's the David Kostin Thesis vs. Mike Wilson Thesis and Joe thinks Kostin will be right.

Joe said the market is revealing the "obvious," that tech is where the capital is. Joe said he'd sell his energy holdings "in a flash, if I could."

Later, Joe said ORCL has been a "complete value trap" for several years. But he said it's now got the momentum because free cash flow generation is rising, and there's the "AI story."

Joe struggles to explain whether this really is a bull market (but sounds like he doesn’t think so)

This page enjoys semantical debates.

The terms "bull" and "bear" often provoke such debates.

Mostly, these terms matter in the past tense. Sure, in February 2000, it was a "bull" market. It was also a "bull" market in 1995. Obviously, we learned, those bull markets were hardly the same thing.

Most of the time, "bull" and "bear" distinctions are meaningless. Now is different, as the stock market has been held back for basically about 12 months as many people — not all — fear the worst of the economy is yet to come.

On Thursday, the S&P hit the 20%-off-the-lows (or however they figure it) benchmark that indicates "bull."

So, Judge began Friday's (6/9) Halftime Report asking Joe Terranova if we're "really" in a bull market.

Hemming and hawing from the get-go, Joe said this purported new bull market is not fundamentally driven, and "the bond market is not confirming it."

Judge eventually said Joe was taking a "long time" to answer whether we're in a bull market or not. Joe concluded that "it's a nice milestone."

Judge didn't have much more luck asking Stephanie Link if bulls or bears are "in charge."

But Bill Baruch saved the day, declaring "it's been a bull market" and questioned buying only after it's confirmed by a steady rise.

Also on Friday's panel was Kevin Simpson, who has occasionally been on Closing Bell, but was present at Post 9 for Friday's Halftime. Simpson said, "My feeling is, we're not in a bull market just yet." He said the "best thing" for the market is to come back in a couple of months and find sustainable market breadth, which is basically what Bill was questioning doing.

Simpson said it would be "tough" to certify a bull market if the Fed isn't done yet.

‘Listening to Cathie Wood’ is not something heard often recently

The stock getting the most attention on Friday's (6/9) Halftime report was TSLA, which, frankly, almost no one on the show ever endorses, other than Bryn Talkington.

Judge suggested TSLA is up "11 straight days" and said Bill Baruch bought the stock. Bill said he's looking "top down" in evaluating TSLA as a buy.

Judge said, "You are lookin' top down if you bought it up a hundred percent!"

Bill said he's "really just rotating" from stakes in MSFT, GOOGL and NVDA. Bill said he noticed that copper and TSLA have "really overlapped each other," but there's a "divergence recently" with copper selling off. Bill seemed to indicate China and AI momentum and tech's leadership role in the market were going to fuel TSLA (although we couldn't tell if he was making a bull or bear case for China), and then he said he's "listening to Cathie Wood talk a bit" about the TSLA ecosystem, and there's also a "massive technical breakout."

Judge asked Joe Terranova why TSLA isn't in the JOET. "Didn't have the momentum," Joe explained, saying it only had a "yellow light," not green.

Joe said that "quite candidly," the JOET decisions are "rules-based" and not about "emotion." (Does anyone think there would be an ETF that buys/sells stocks based on emotion?)

Judge questioned why TSLA doesn't have the right "momentum" for JOET given that it's up "46% in a month." Joe said it's down from its "November high" (meaning 2021) and is "down well over 40% actually."

Judge tangles up ADBE, CRWD

Judge on Friday's (6/9) Halftime Report said Citi is excited about META and doesn't think the stock is "tapped out."

Stephanie Link noted the valuation has changed a lot since the end of last year. Joe Terranova observed, "I haven't heard very much about the metaverse, thankfully."

Bill Baruch said he thinks MSFT still has a "tailwind from AI."

Joe asserted that ADBE "will be one of the winners in AI."

Judge started to talk about CRWD being a "top pick at Piper Sandler" and said to Joe, "You own Adobe as well."

"I own, I own Adobe. I also own Crowdstrike, uh-" Joe said, expecting Judge to ask him about CRWD.

"Oh I meant- I meant- what did I say," Judge said.

"You said Adobe," Joe pointed out, before adding, "Crowdstrike's been a disappointment relative to Palo Alto and Fortinet."

Bill Baruch said CRWD is more of a software company and PANW is more of a hardware company, and both PANW and MSFT could move in on CRWD's space, there's "potential of somebody eating its lunch and taking their (sic 'its' and 'their' in same sentence) market share."

If Joe had just bought a bunch of PANW when he first started talking about it years ago and held it instead of trading around it all the time, he’d have gobs more money

Joe Terranova on Friday's (6/9) Halftime Report said NFLX is being talked about as "potentially being an acquisition target," perhaps for MSFT; he's not sure he'd buy NFLX for that, but "the crackdown on password is real."

Kevin Simpson said the "dividend space" is a "hard place to be for the past year and a half to 2 years" because everything besides megatech and AI stocks is "staying around the Mendoza line."

Judge asked Bill Baruch about buying BAC. Bill said "I will admit," while he had "highlighted a lot of my great trades in the past 2 weeks, 3 weeks," that "Bank America (sic no 'of' but later added 'of') was a bad trade for me" after he bought it at the end of February and sold in March.

"It's been cheap for a while," said Stephanie Link of BAC, "but all the financials are cheap." Kevin Simpson owns JPM and GS.

Simpson has owned WMT and is buying more, saying it can "step up" if there's a recession.

Joe didn't seem very impressed by ULTA even though Stephanie Link said it's a "good company though." Joe touted DRI as "remarkable" and an "outlier."

Joe said he's not "uber-bullish" on UBER, but is long. Bill Baruch made it his Final Trade. (This writer is long UBER.)

Someone wanted a Grade My Trade on CLF and asked if it can make $25. Stephanie Link said it's a "good story" but she doesn't think it gets to that target.

Kevin Simpson gave someone an "A" for buying MRK at 109. It's only a couple dollars higher.

Talk about a 180 — Judge is suddenly claiming Jim ‘deserves credit’

Halftime Report viewers had to enjoy Thursday's (6/8) episode in which Steve Weiss continued to receive some of his overdue bearishness comeuppance.

Jim Lebenthal pointed to last Friday's jobs report and said the market "hasn't given credit" for good corporate earnings but that it'll take the Fed stopping to bring a "sustainable endorsement" of the rally by the market.

Jim said if there's a 3-handle in next week's CPI report, the market will "rip."

Judge reported that Weiss was "smirking" when Jim spoke. Weiss said that's his "default" position. (That was a good line.) That's when Judge stated, "He's been at least this year, I think it's fair to say, he deserves credit," telling Weiss the economy is more "resilient" than Weiss thought but as Jim predicted.

Weiss started to point out which of the big 7 tech stocks Jim owns. "Don't make it about me," Jim protested.

Weiss then asked Judge, "Why would I give him credit when the market's basically flat, except for those stocks, which he doesn't own."

Weiss insisted (again) (we'll be hearing this for another couple quarters, then he'll give up on it) that the economy hasn't felt "the full brunt" of rate hikes. Weiss said it's "absolutely incorrect" to say the market is not keyed to the Fed stopping.

On the other hand, Weiss stated, "Negative positioning is the highest it's been since 2007." (As always in 2023, he's saying the market's both really bad and maybe is going a lot higher.)

Jim asserted that we're in an "undeniable" uptrend. Jim said Weiss is "bearish" but it's "more and more unlikely" we retest the October lows. Weiss protested, "You know how many stocks I'm short? Zero." He said "I'm cautious on the market" and thinks it's "overvalued."

Jenny Harrington said it's "unfair" to "assume" that because someone doesn't own the big 7 stocks, "that you don't have a market-like or better performance." Weiss said, "I made no assumption."

"You did," Jenny insisted. "You asked Jim specifically, do you own those, and the assumption was if you don't, you can't possibly be doing as well as the market."

"That's just not true, and that's, it's not a productive conversation," Weiss said. Jenny said, "My point is that you do not necessarily need to own those top stocks to still do well."

Judge said, "That frankly remains to be seen." Jenny said she can show Judge returns of growth managers "who are up this year without owning them." (She said on May 18 that she can't discuss her own returns because "the SEC comes down on you or whatever.")

Josh Brown said there are "plenty of areas" making 52-week highs.

Weiss seems to think it’s 1) a buoyant market in the face of 2) a bearish economy in which 3) only DE stock works

As he indicated at the beginning — and end — of Thursday's (6/8) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss is obsessed with John Deere stock.

Weiss said he got out of his NVDA trade, after a "very tight stop."

Weiss said he hasn't sold MSFT, though he wouldn't be surprised if it falls further.

Josh Brown described in detail how both the bulls and bears lost a "narrative" this week. Brown said it's not like everyone's still all bearish, and it's also not like just 7 stocks are carrying the market.

Jenny Harrington said she's taking a "bigger" perspective rather than "this week" about the market; Jenny said she was at a Roanoke conference last week at a summit for higher education money folks, and she asked how many attendees have had a conversation "recently" about moving money out of stocks into fixed income.

Jenny was "shocked" that 50% reported having that conversation. "There's definitely money moving," Jenny said, and it's the "real asset allocators." (Translation: Not the retail-type guessing that Weiss admits doing recently.)

Leslie Picker reported that tech-focused hedge funds came "roaring back in May." Weiss said, "You've gotta look at longer-term performance." But Weiss said hedge funds are positioned for a "cataclysmic market."

Jenny could’ve told Josh, but didn’t, that WHR and SWK are up since Josh mocked them a few weeks ago

Jim Lebenthal was actually getting kudos from Judge on Thursday's (6/8) Halftime Report, but Jim did claim during Final Trade that the market is looking 6-9 months ahead, or into 2024, and so if there's a recession this year, "it just doesn't matter."

Judge chuckled, "It may in fact matter."

Opining on Jefferies' "hold" call on casino stocks, Jim said, "I feel pretty good" about the sector; he said COVID spikes in China are "highly likely to be temporary." Jim said Vegas business is "through the roof." (He probably got that expression from the Lily-dog-puns-AT&T commercial that every CNBC viewer has literally seen 75 times.) Jim said he thinks WYNN is going 30% higher by year-end.

Jenny Harrington sold AAP, the disaster that she discussed in detail a week earlier. Jenny said she sold it last week and replaced it with CCI, which "technically is a real estate investment trust."

Judge noted, "Forward P.E. is about 30."

"I don't think you should look at it on a P.E. basis," Jenny said. (Ah. So P.E. matters with every stock we don't like, not the ones we do like.)

This page will note that on May 31, Jenny called AAP "oversold" at $73. She indicated she would sell but also said it was "oversold." It was trading well below $73 on Thursday.

Josh Brown asserted that NEE, which was initiated buy at Goldman, "has the potential to be one of the best stocks in the world (snicker) (last 3 words redundant) over the next 10 years."

Jenny said "Now's the time" to get long MMM; "I paid 140" (which means this stock's slide is only slightly better than AAP's). Josh Brown said he doesn't like BROS, which he touted early in the year; he thinks there's a "communication problem" with the company. "They just suck at talking to Wall Street," though "there's an amazing story here."

Josh cited new management at DOCU as a positive but conceded the risk of "so much competition" that it can't add customers. But he said there's a chance it can upsell its customer base.

Jenny's Final Trade was SWK.

Judge called CNBC's gorgeous Pippa Stevens "our oil ace."

Joe equates wearing Apple goggles with attending a Taylor Swift concert, says he paid ‘thousands’ for ticket(s)

On Wednesday's (6/7) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova made a comment about concertgoing that got attention beyond the walls of CNBCfix HQ.

Joe had said he was "kind of chuckling to myself" because "so many" people after the Apple reveal "were ready to have this referendum that it was a failure" and declared it was the "peak" for the stock and "it's over for Apple."

Joe said "there's so much ignorance in making that type of assertion" and noted, curiously, "You have individuals, myself one of 'em, who paid thousands of dollars for the experience to go see Taylor Swift, and it was worth it, from what- from what I understand, OK," prompting Joe to question the notion that people won't pay for the VR "experience."

(Obviously, "from what I understand" sorta indicates Joe wasn't actually there.)

Judge opened the show noting BMO raised its S&P target to 4,550. Brian Belski said he "would like to note" that it's the first time BMO is overweight tech since 2019. He said he's gotten "feedback" that they're "late," but Belski said "this is just beginning."

Brian Belski is "1,000%" with Brad Gerstner about how this isn't like 1999, when there was, according to Gerstner from the previous day's Closing Bell, "make-believe" profits.

Kari Firestone did caution about the AI space, "this could start to go south," if we get to a point where there are "no more buyers ... and then it's degenerative AI" (a phrase we're sure we're going to hear as much as "at the end of the day" about 10 years ago once AI stocks fall).

Jason Snipe said he's "very bullish" on NFLX because it's "really starting to monetize the existing base." The JOET owns NFLX; Joe called it a "relatively reasonable valuation" compared with other streamers and said it's "over 40% below its November of 2021 all-time high."

Joe said he personally bought IBB but it hasn't broken out.

Doug Cifu, CEO of Virtu (not to be confused with Virtus, which is the JOET proprietor), said when people ask him for investment advice, he says, "Buy index products." Judge asked Doug about calling Gary Gensler a "politician" not a "regulator." Cifu said crypto regulation "should have been addressed years ago" and that Gensler has been regulating "through enforcement," which provides "no clarity" to the marketplace.

Judge said a headline in WSJ was boosting PARA, one of Jim Lebenthal's favorite stocks. It has something to do with Amazon planning an ad tier for Prime streaming. CNBC's gorgeous Dee Bosa joined the show late to discuss this news, saying she reached out to AMZN and "likely they will say no comment." Joe said PARA is "not my kind of stock."

Jamie Dimon apparently isn’t planning to run for president

Late in Tuesday's (6/6) Halftime Report, Eamon Javers reported from a parking lot outside the U.S. Capitol about something that has nothing to do with a virtual reality (snicker) headset.

Javers and a Bloomberg reporter got to ask Jamie Dimon, while Dimon walked briskly to a meeting with centrist Democrats, whether Jamie may run for president at some point in time. "I never say never to anything, but no intention," Dimon said, what Ben Bradlee in "All the President's Men" used to call a "non-denial denial."

Jamie basically just chuckled when Javers asked him what the Fed's going to do.

Josh makes some great points about Portfolio Pilot

Judge on Tuesday's (6/6) Halftime Report welcomed Alex Harmsen, co-founder of Global Predictions, to discuss what Judge called a "really interesting idea" called Portfolio Pilot.

Harmsen was smart to say "AI" 5 times while describing how this contraption evaluates portfolios. He said the "biggest problem" of robo-advisors is that it's just stocks and bonds and "fairly low risk, but low return."

Judge asked Josh Brown what he would "make of this particular product." Brown said this kind of advice adds quality, but "just because you can add hedge fund-like strategies to a person's portfolio, it doesn't mean performance will be better. In fact, most of the academic research says it'll be worse." Brown also said robo-advisors previously have tried alternative strategies, and also, he doesn't think Alex is "registered" and is merely "making suggestions that investors can then take themselves, right?"

"You're absolutely right on, on many of those things," Alex said, adding that "right now, we're in the middle of getting SEC approval, and so we're registering as a registered investment advisor."

Earlier, Judge brought in CNBC's gorgeous Dee Bosa to compare the current Silicon Valley stock boom with that of 1999-2000. Dee cited one chart that "says it all," showing much higher P.E. ratios in 2000 than now.

Judge discussed the New Economy with Walter Isaacson.

Uh-oh: China’s Communist Party has access to video of developers laughing at the AAPL headset price

Tuesday's (6/6) Halftime Report came a day after Monday's Halftime Report, (as it typically does) which we basically skipped because, even though Judge looked sharp in Silicon Valley, we just weren't that interested in hearing Josh Brown opine on NVDA again. (Oh, actually he didn't.)

On Tuesday, Josh said the "biggest takeaway for me" from AAPL's conference is that this new headset is "much bigger" than something that's just a boost to earnings in the next year or two; rather, it's that AAPL sees the future as much more than a person just walking around with a phone in our hand and sees "probably" a time when "our hands are free" but we're still connected.

Brenda Vingiello, making her 2nd straight appearance in the Bay Area on location with Judge, said Apple's product reveal is just a "potential growth driver down the road" and it's otherwise "back to the same story."

Stephanie Link, who beamed in remotely, described the new Apple headset as "too expensive" and "too clunky."

Rob Sechan said some people will actually be in AAPL stock because of the headset, which seems a bit of a stretch. Rob's "neutral" on AAPL but doesn't have "any intent" to go underweight.

Guest Tom Forte, a D.A. Davidson analyst who downgraded AAPL to neutral, said the headset is "already priced in the stock" and the stock is near "all-time highs" and trading at a "premium multiple."

Judge said Forte is "not the only one skeptical of this new product," playing a TikTok video from the unveiling in which, when the price was unveiled, there was "a groan, a gasp and some laughs."

Steve Kovach said whatever the skepticism, AAPL's new headset is "crystal clear" and "leaps and bounds beyond anything Meta has put out so far." (Well, if commercial adoption of Oculus or whatever it's called is your benchmark, then basically everything is "leaps and bounds" more successful.)

With a straight face, Josh Brown even suggested wearing the headset while on a crammed plane; "This literally is an escape from your current reality for as long as you need it to be."

Steve Kovach gushed about doing the headset demo of "floor seats of a Phoenix Suns game."

Rob Sechan shrugged that, "Right now, all this is a faith-based bet." He said many people are willing to do that, and tossed in an "oh by the way" while stating for the 2nd time he's not going underweight on the stock.

Judge said Brian Belski, who wasn't on Tuesday's show, was busy "upgrading tech."

"Everyone's piled into the same names," said Stephanie Link.

Weiss busy backpedaling

It literally took 59 minutes to get to the most important comment of Friday's (6/2) Halftime Report, but Steve Weiss obliged during Final Trade.

Weiss said the question is whether 4,200 is "now support." He thinks that "may be the case."

Throughout the show, Judge impressively kept Weiss on the defensive about his year-and-a-half-long bearishness, and Weiss spent the show trying to have it both ways, touting bearishness while admitting we might be in a rally, although it's fair to note he did have a bunch of good one-liners.

Judge opened with a rare gag, showing Weiss a clip of Homer Simpson while pointing out the surging market.

Weiss said it's a "struggle" to respond to Judge "politely."

Weiss defined "EP" for "those not in media."

Weiss then stammered through an assessment of his position, saying "the first tenet" of his job is "don't lose money." Judge suggested Weiss' job is to "filibuster." Weiss eventually claimed, "I'm still right," demanding, "Take a look at the average stock."

"There haven't been a lot of ways" to play this market, Weiss said, implying that the only thing going up is the QQQ or "Gang of 7."

Obviously, that's not far from the truth, but this past week suggests that the "Gang of 7" may be joined by many others.

Succumbing to sour grapes, Weiss claimed "the market is not driven anymore by bottoms-up, fundamental investing," because the "majority" of the market is "owned by indexes."

"I still believe my overall view in the market is correct," Weiss said, but at the same time, he concedes there's a "green light" with the Fed "pausing."

But Weiss said he expects recession because "60% of the country lives paycheck to paycheck."

Weiss claimed he's got "humility" and thinks about where he could be wrong, but he said "It's not like I'm not making any money; I'm, I'm up the kazoo in 5%-plus Treasurys, that's a phenomenal return that's tax-advantaged." So what has he missed? "Again, I missed those 7 stocks," Weiss said.

Weiss calls Jim ‘Dr. Death’

The stellar jobs report on Friday (6/2) wasn't nearly as big of a surprise on the Halftime Report as Judge practically celebrating his favorite target, Jim Lebenthal.

Judge suggested this was "perfect jobs report" and "perfect scenario" for Jim. Jim said it's "pretty darn good."

Judge even cut into Jim's introductory explanation to note Jim raising his S&P target a day earlier and how Friday's report "lands right in your lap."

Jim said this jobs report "is what a soft landing looks like" and that cyclicals are "ridiculously cheap."

Bryn Talkington predicted "a 3-handle by the end of July" on inflation. Bryn asserted that people jumping into NVDA after it's up 200% are just on the "gerber (sic probably meant 'gerbil') wheel" of buying high and selling low.

Steve Weiss said he bought FCX. He declared a rate cut "will not happen this year" and he'd be "extremely shocked" if it did; he said it "absolutely" won't happen this year ... "unless the economy goes into a tailspin."

Weiss said DE is his new buy, he said he sold at 410, which he said was Jim's Final Trade buy price, and crowed that "I'm pickin' up 15% lower."

Jim chided Weiss for calling him "Dr. Death" and wondered, "What the heck is that about?"

Weiss again talked up MSFT as a "permanent compounder."

Weiss said he bought DKS. Bryn said LULU looked recently like it was headed to $300, and "if you're just focusing on technicals ... you've missed it."

Judge said ALB got an upgrade from UBS. ALB long Bryn Talkington pointed out the volatility in lithium prices. Bryn said China EV production is a "long secular tailwind" for ALB and she sees a band of 180 to 260 and "I like the price here."

Jim bought some stock with the symbol MP, "a strategic resource that we need" for rare earth minerals.

Bryn suggested energy could have some legs over the summer. Weiss said ALB is "perfectly well positioned," but lithium is volatile.

Jim gave a viewer an "A" for buying GM at $33.33. Jim mentioned "5 times earnings" (that sounds like an AAP argument).

Jason Snipe said he likes casino stocks; he said "there's a lot of spending on Las Vegas and other casino areas."

Tyler Mathisen, the king of managing those crucial seconds at the end of CNBC programs, and Kelly Evans handed over Friday's Power Lunch to Closing Bell ("9 seconds to spare!" Kelly gushed) and said "Scott can have it," evidently not knowing that Judge wasn't hosting Friday's Closing Bell and it was Santoli instead, who said, "Scott can't have it."

Trade School on the ‘exhaustion gap’

Judge opened Thursday's (6/1) Halftime Report asking Josh Brown about ... yes ... AI. "All of them were statistically overbought," Brown explained.

Jim Lebenthal said he's "light in AI" and said it's a "mistake" that he's been underweight the space and the question is, "Am I gonna compound that mistake by buying at the right price."

How would buying at the "right" price "compound" a mistake?

Jim said he doesn't think buying AI this week is the "right move." He told Josh Brown that Josh has been "the god on Nvidia" and that Jim knows technicians "who say that all gaps must be filled" and there's a gap in the NVDA chart from 246-279, and so, "Does that gap need to be filled."

Brown said "a lot of gaps do get filled but there's no statistical evidence that says they all need to." Brown then offered "Trader 101" and said, "The first thing is, most people who walk around saying all gaps get filled, uh, are just repeating something that they heard and, and it's like kind of an old wives tale, because there are actually 4 different types of gaps." (This page can't handle subjects in groups of any more than 3.)

Eventually Brown said the gap to potentially watch out for is the "exhaustion gap."

Judge said "I love the question" from Jim (previously he carped at Jim for trying to ask questions) and "I thought that was a great bit of Trade School as well from Josh."

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