[CNBCfix Fast Money Review Archive — January 2022]
Was 2016 the year of Greece austerity or Marine Le Pen?
Joe Terranova proved a quote machine on Monday's (1/31) Halftime Report.
Joe started off saying that Monday's market is "The most obvious rebalance that I've seen in recent memory."
Then, Joe pulled something of a Jim Lebenthal, suggesting that the current market might be just like 2018 a recent year.
"The market is pattern-matching exactly 2016," Joe asserted. For those (including us) who are wondering what happened in 2016 pre-election, the bottom or retest occurred in February, then it was up, although July through Election Day weren't much to write home about.
(Adam Parker, later in the show, said he doesn't really "love" the 2016 comparison.)
(And honestly, we're guessing that there have been other years in which the January chart matches this year, and things didn't work out so great for the rest of the year.)
(And that year, the market was thinking about President Hillary. Maybe the market is thinking about President Hillary again.)
At one point, Joe stated, "Let's face it," there's no "clarity" about what the Fed will do, and "Let's stop saying 'The market.'"
(Right, the indexes are never the true story and it's always a market of stocks and a stock-picker's market, etc.)
Joe also said he doesn't want to give in to the "temptation" of buying high-P.E. tech stocks.
Much later, explaining why he planned to buy NKE on the close, Joe opined about television, declaring, "The value of this stock- of, of this, this, this show really Scott is the aut- authenticity that we all bring to it."
Judge doesn’t say a word
about NFL playoffs
Early into Monday's (1/31) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal and Judge got tangled up a bit over terminology.
Jim said yields and the Fed are NOT the reasons the market's "going to go down" (even though he also spoke as if the bottom's in or probably in). Rather, he thinks there has to be a "catalyst" to make the market go down.
"Catalyst? Catalyst? What do you mean? I don't get it," Judge said.
Jim insisted "the bull market is intact" and that "profit cycles," not other things, move markets.
"Stocks are in a bear market. Period," countered Steve Weiss, using a strange analogy of pancreatic cancer (seriously).
"It's gonna be a volatile market," Weiss asserted, and "I don't think it's over."
Weiss referred to Cathie "Woods (sic)" again. Judge said Cathie has become a "punching bag in, in some respects."
Addressing MRNA, Weiss said he "actually bought a little more this morning." Weiss insisted, "This is so much more than a COVID company," but he acknowledged, "they're event-driven."
Weiss said he thinks NFLX has "got some legs."
‘Law of large numbers’ creeps back into the AAPL debate
Someone often mentioned on the Halftime Report got a spirited defense Friday (1/28) from Josh Brown, who made it sound like staying away from social media is pure agony. (So why does Judge look at his Twitter account all during the show?)
"The Cathie Wood stuff is so over the top," Brown thundered. "I think people have done enough using her name to get clicks. It's rea- It's gotten personal at this point in a way that it never should. That's a human being. That's a person with feelings ... and they did this with Meredith Whitney, uh, 7 or 8 years ago," Josh Brown said.
Well, OK. It's not quite the same as Meredith Whitney. Whitney wasn't picking stocks. Whitney made one of those calls, a great call, but one that's like "I see Oswald with a gun on the 6th floor" ... and then, like others who happened to be bearish in 2007/08, claiming to predict the next 2 or 3 market-shaking events afterwards. (One of those claims was that the economy was going to transition to energy/ag in the middle of the country away from the coasts.)
Anyway, evidently, one of those people piling on against Cathie is none other than CNBC's Jim Cramer.
Brown pointed to HOOD's tumble and suggested there are stocks that pose a "super-low risk for an acquisition." (This writer is long HOOD.)
Judge said Tom Lee is calling for "violent upside in the next 3 months." (BUT WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR TELADOC AND PELOTON??? OMIGOD, WOULDN'T BUY THOSE!!!!!)
Doc took issue with Amy Raskin saying the "law of large numbers kicks in" with AAPL's valuation; Najarian said "the law of large numbers, that's NOT what that law is. You have to come up with a different reason to not like it."
The ‘Daniel Jones Market’
Wednesday's (1/27) Halftime Report guest Dubravko Lakos contended that the Fed would not be making a "dovish pivot" but would sound more dovish in Wednesday's statement compared with what the market fears in rate hikes.
"Expectations are at stratosphere levels," he said.
Now, typically, we take a pass on these pre-Fed-announcement episodes of the Halftime Report. But Lakos made a point that, coincidentally, this page has also made (a broken clock is right twice a day).
"I think for the Fed, uh, to be basically hiking and causing a slowdown in demand due to supply-driven oil shock, I'm not sure what we're really accomplishing at the end of the day," Lakos said. (This page didn't include the "at the end of the day.")
Exactly. We'll put it slightly differently. Mary Barra has no cars to sell during 2 years of enormous demand, so people wanting to buy a car are paying steep premiums ... and the Federal Reserve is going to pressure folks not to want to buy a car because apparently not very many are forthcoming anytime soon.
Sounds like a plan.
Suggesting stocks are at the lower end of a range, Lakos said, "I think you want to be long, not short."
Lakos trumpeted energy as his "high conviction" pick. Also, "I think you gotta like tech here," Lakos said, including "high-beta growth stocks."
Basically agreeing, Jim Lebenthal offered, "I think the market is WAY ahead of where the Fed is in terms of becoming aggressively hawkish," stating the market's gotten "carried away."
Grandpa Joe Terranova said he doesn't think "the Nasdaq, ex-the FANGs" has seen "the low for the year." Nor does he think the Russell has seen the low for the year.
Joe suggested TSLA could be an "investment-grade company" a year from now.
Judge referred to this as a "Daniel Jones Market." (Because 2 bad months after 2 monstrous years means you're no longer Pat Mahomes.)
By the way, most of the folks on the Halftime Report mock (any one or more of these names) PTON, TDOC, DOCU, ZM literally every day (this writer is long ZM and DOCU), but boy, were they pounding the table for PYPL for the last $75 down (this writer is long PYPL).
If the Bills just tackled the receivers at the line of scrimmage and took a couple 5-yard defensive holding penalties in the final 13 seconds, they’d be hosting the Bengals this Sunday
To its credit, Tuesday's (1/25) Halftime Report took up the question of whether the stock market has bottomed.
Jim Lebenthal said his "capitulation" call a day earlier "doesn't mean you go marching straight higher."
Nevertheless, "Yeah, I think we've bottomed," Jim affirmed. Judge said those are the words he'd "take from our interview."
We checked, and Monday's intraday S&P low apparently was 4,222.62, a level not seen since last June.
On the other hand, "I don't know that we've bottomed. Uh, I tend to think that we haven't," said Steve Weiss.
Jim said, "We can moralize about it ... but the Fed has bailed out the market for decades." Judge said several times with a straight face, "Maybe this time is different (snicker)."
But Josh Brown seemed to agree with Jim. "They have no choice," Brown said.
Weiss said the market's at a 5-year average multiple. Weiss said "of course" the multiple should be lower in a tightening cycle.
Jim protested that "rates are 1.75 on the 10-year ... this hysteria is simply too much," and he added that inflation has given "every indication of rolling over."
"I think you're getting carried away, Steve, I really do," Jim concluded.
"Jim, Jim, I don't think I'm getting carried away," Weiss said, "and if I'm getting carried away, then the futures are getting carried away."
"They can't sit around to wait any longer for inflation to come down," Weiss said of the Fed.
Later in the show, Judge brought in Tom Lee via phone line. "These are great entry points for people," said Lee.
Lee suggested there could be a "big buying opportunity" at the time of the Fed meeting in March.
Judge questioned if there's "still a lot of froth" that has to come out of certain names.
"I would say the market feels fragile," Lee conceded, but he suggested stocks are "pricing in a lot of bad news."
The reason the defense is gassed is because it can’t stop anything, not the other way around
Way, way, way back in the day, the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins played an epic football game.
On Christmas Day. NFL playoffs. Win or go home.
One was a great team finding itself in decline. The other was a great team whose best days were still a year or two away.
These teams scored 24 points apiece in regulation.
And whaddaya know — The overtime rules worked. Neither team could score a point in overtime for about a quarter and a half.
Nowadays, that's never gonna fly. Playing NFL offense is like playing a video game. And even if you somehow don't connect with a long pass every 4 tries, you'll get a defensive-holding penalty to extend the drive.
Defensive play is so irrelevant, people actually think that teams giving up a TD drive in overtime deserve more chances.
That will probably be the next stage of the NFL — offenses will have to score 2 overtime TDs to win the game. And then when that gets too easy, they'll have to start attempting 60-yard field goals. And when that gets too easy ...
The only way to stop this out-of-control point inflation is to, like the Federal Reserve up until 2021, encourage real inflation — bigger, heavier footballs that can't be zipped around the field like tennis balls.
And then they can play defense again.
We can hope.
Is this a ‘taper tantrum’?
Judge didn't say a word about pro football, and his commercial-lite show seemed like it would never end.
The star guest on Monday's (1/24) Halftime Report was probably Jim Chanos, except about all Jim talked about was how it's a stock-picker's (Zzzzzzzz) market.
Another guest, Ed Yardeni, said the current tough market is another "taper tantrum." Steve Liesman insisted, "This is nothing like a taper tantrum." Yardeni insisted there's a "big difference" between this "taper tantrum" and previous ones.
Rather than fear a policy error, Yardeni said the Fed has already made a "big mistake," which was being "overly easy last year for too long."
Steve Weiss said "I'm in no hurry" to start putting cash to work.
"I bought a little bit of Zoom last week," said Bryn Talkington. (This writer is long ZM.)
"Zooms (sic plural) is not a DraftKings, Zooms (sic plural) is not a pets.com, Zoom is not a Peloton," Bryn said, but a "real cloud platform."
Jim Lebenthal dialed in to say he's buying GBX, TWLO and WYNN.
"This looks like capitulation to me," Jim said.
What would someone know about NFLX right after earnings that would prompt a call buy?
On Friday's (1/21) Halftime Report, Pete Najarian opened things up by explaining why he bought NFLX "shares" (according to Judge, not the options).
Pete started off by saying the P.E. ratio is "far different than it once was."
But then, after a couple minutes of fundamental/technical arguments, Pete admitted, "We had a large buyer of calls in Netflix, also, a seller of puts in Netflix." And so he bought shares after "patiently" waiting.
So basically, Pete was interested in buying this stock, but really needed someone to buy some options first.
And ... as Daniel Kaffee would sorta say to Col. Jessep ... if all you were waiting for is an options buy, why does the P.E. ratio matter?
Later in the program, addressing how tech stocks have plunged, Pete even said, "It does come down to where is the P.E."
Judge brought in Fish for one of his rare (in recent years) appearances. Fish actually said, "I think the last 4 or 5 times I've been on this show, I'm batting a hundred (sic not 'thousand'). Which means whatever I'm about to say, I'm gonna be dead wrong on, because that's just the way it's gonna be."
Um ... We don't think Fish has been on 4 times in the last 5 years.
But whatever.
Fish opined, "Natural gas prices in the United States for next winter are ridiculously low to where they have to be."
Eventually, Judge told Fish, "You said a hundred earlier, I know you meant a thousand."
Karen gets a special message as Fast Money marks its 15th (sorta) anniversary
Thursday's (1/20) 5 p.m. Fast Money celebrated the show's 15th birthday, although, as this page recounted last fall with the Halftime Report, birthdays for CNBC shows aren't quite an exact science. (Fast Money actually started in 2006, and then it was a prime time show, then it was a business day show, etc.)
And, quite frankly, we're not sure why a channel as prominent as CNBC needs to mark sorta birthdays; this site hardly made a big deal at all of its own 10-year anniversary a while back, even though the notion of this site lasting 10 years is far more remarkable than a CNBC program not being canceled. Cut the crap. Not the same thing.
We're glad that at least there was a glimpse of the show's greatest footage — Guy Adami in the UPS uniform — but disappointed there wasn't anything about Joe Terranova and Keith McCullough putting on Facebook hoodies. (Oh, the highlights we remember ...)
Anyway. On Thursday's Fast Money, which of course was a virtual, everyone-in-separate-locations production, Mel rolled a video clip from Jamie Dimon (not live) of Jamie wishing the show a Happy 15th Birthday and blowing a kiss to Karen Finerman, who seemed oddly rigid at the tribute.
"OK I'll accept it, uh, EC, if you can send over a little video of that for me to keep, please, thank you," Karen said. "He is the greatest finance executive of our generation, no doubt."
‘A buffalo market’
On Thursday's (1/20) Halftime Report, Chris Hyzy uncorked a term that, to our astonishment, we're not sure we've ever heard before.
"We think this is a buffalo market," Hyzy said, describing it as being in "in the bull family" but "can get tired" and "roams quite a bit" and is "rather heavy" and is a "grind it out across the prairie type of market."
Well, some people tend to call a "buffalo market" a "rolling bear market."
Make of all that what you will.
Judge spent the final moments of the program discussing the free fall of PTON in the wake of CNBC's scoop about the production halt. All of the panelists who spoke about this stock basically said "This was never going to work long term" (not an actual quote), with Josh Brown declaring that fitness businesses on Wall Street never work and "Most Americans are slobs." (Curiously, the two semi-regular panelists who spoke of buying this stock in 2020 and early 2021 haven't been on the show for a loooooong time.)
Josh Brown admitted that the selling in RBLX has been "unbelievable." He said he's bought more at lower prices. (That was a "Stock Summit" pick. Sounds like a lot of "Stock Summit" picks are underwater.)
‘Don’t question my skin in the game’
Things got feisty on Wednesday's (1/19) Halftime Report when Joe "50 basis points" Terranova announced that he wanted to recommend 3 trades. (Actually, he went on to recommend 4, but no need to get ahead of ourselves.)
"You have to put the trades on, and you have to accept a very low risk," Joe started to say.
"Are you puttin' 'em on? Are you putting them on?" Judge interrupted.
"Let me- Let me- Let me-" Joe said.
"You said you have to put the trades on, I just wanted to make sure you're putting 'em on," Judge said.
"When I give the trades- I wanna give the trades first, then I'll tell you what I'm putting on," Joe said.
Joe went on to suggest CRWD with a 170 stop, FTNT with a 290 stop, ADBE — "that's the one stock I'm gonna put on" — with a 499 stop, and QQQ with a 370 stop, which he said he'd also buy.
"Why'd you give Fortinet if you're not gonna be doing that one," Judge said.
"I gave the viewers 4- I mean, if you want me to do them all and only give stocks based on, on what I'm doing-" Joe tried to continue.
"I don't want you to do anything Joe. I don't want you to say- I don't want you to give trades when you don't have the same skin in the game that you're urging other people to do. That- That's all I'm asking," Judge said.
"Scott, Fortinet has been in the JOET ETF since November of 2020. Don't question my skin in the game. It's there, my friend," Joe declared.
"I'm not questioning your skin in the game Joe. You're giving very specific trades. I just wanted to know if you're along for the ride too. Don't be so sensitive. It's all good," Judge concluded.
But later, Judge said, "I feel like Joe needs a pick-me-up after that prior segment. We good Joe? It's all good."
‘A more aggressive Fed’
Joe Terranova opened Wednesday's (1/19) Halftime Report by opining, "We are in the process of trying to find a bottom for the component (snicker) of technology where the free cash flow generation is here and now, it's present."
Liz Young said she doesn't think the "big tech names" will be the "huge standouts" this year.
Steve Weiss contended that "people are still too optimistic."
"The market's not going meaningfully above where it is now for any period of time while we're in this tightening cycle. And the surprise still is a more aggressive (snicker) Fed. Period," Weiss said.
Jim evidently wasn’t watching
On Wednesday's (1/19) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss said "Cathie Woods (sic)" is "talkin' her own book" on valuations.
Judge then read Cathie's quote about perceived "enormous" arbitrage opportunity between private and public markets. Weiss said the statement is "patently false," though it's true with "some."
Rick Rieder offered a "very definitive 'I don't know'" about the direction of equities.
Judge asked if the Fed has "cred." Rieder said the Fed was "genius" in how it handled the start of the pandemic, and people should "cut them some slack" for dealing with the pandemic, but "I think that QE went way too long."
Weiss revealed he trimmed CLF. "Frankly I don't see it breaking out of this near-term trading range," Weiss said.
Weiss first said he likes "Eastman Chemical" better, than he said "Eastman Kodak (sic)." Judge didn't correct him because he was looking at Jim Lebenthal's Twitter feed.
Joe wants a 50-basis-point hike (which will put some actual cars on dealer lots, apparently)
As we continue along with "Let us throw government checks at people" suddenly turning on a dime to "Don't attempt to buy anything for a while" (and how soon after the rate hikes will the government start sending out $1,400 checks again), Tuesday's (1/18) post-holiday Halftime Report panel took part in kind of a 3-against-1 on the risk of inflation.
Jim Lebenthal started things off saying he "frankly" believes in a 10% correction to 4,530.
Josh Brown opined that "Once again, the Fed is letting the markets do its work for it," which means the Fed will "have to do less." Judge expressed "Hmmmmmm" skepticism over that last comment, which also seemed to draw skepticism from the 3 other panelists.
Brown said the Fed "has to tighten, should tighten" and "there's absolutely no benefit to continued stimulus."
But maybe that's not enough. Joe Terranova stated that Bill Ackman called for a 50-basis-point hike over the weekend. "Bill's right, we need to go faster, we need to go quicker, we need 50 basis points ... you're normalizing (snicker) monetary policy," Joe asserted.
Joe concluded, "Inflation seems to be the problem."
Jim Lebenthal pointed to 10-year yields of 1.8%, inflation of 7% and GDP "around 4%," which Jim called "an absolute illogical inconsistency (sic) singularity that needs to be solved."
Josh rebutted, "That 7% inflation rate is so artificial and, and, and not, and not, the new normal. The rate of change is already decelerating."
"C'mon, 37% increase in used cars? Do we think that's continuing?" Brown added.
"Slow down, slow down Josh, slow down," Jim said. Jim said if inflation is more than 1.8%, "you still have negative real 10-year yields."
Brown said he agrees with Jim's point that the S&P "is the market," but Brown countered that "frankly, the Nasdaq really- is the, is like the real market."
‘One of the biggest overreactions I’ve seen in a long time’
Early in the year, the stock market is proving a tough hombre for certain momentum traders.
Explaining on Tuesday's (1/18) Halftime Report a lot of his recent stock sales, Joe Terranova told Judge, "I don't take knockout punches. I take jabs."
Joe pointed out that XM is one of his "Stock Summit" (it's not really a "Summit" of any kind) picks and "you might as well just now obliterate me on my Stock Summit picks." (Uh oh. Judge may not even be done with introducing people's picks.)
"I'm not sitting here hoping and wishing these stocks are gonna come back," Joe further explained. "It's a matter of survival."
Joe even got in a mention of "penalty box," one of his favorite terms of yore. (He didn't note that HES is "tethered to the price of oil.") (If so, sounds like HES and not XM was the real buy.)
(And, while we don't want to sound like schoolmarms, here's where someone might say, if you're not sure you can "survive" a couple weeks of a stock slide, then ...)
Later in the show, Judge asked Joe why Joe sold GS. Joe said "it's below the 200-day moving average; I had to take it out of the portfolio." Jim Lebenthal later said that "this Goldman move is one of the biggest overreactions I've seen in a long time; you're supposed to step in right now and buy this."
Sounds like Joe’s advice to KSS activists would be, ‘You should’ve taken your jabs and not these punches’
On Tuesday's (1/18) Halftime Report, Judge brought in Macellum's Jon Duskin, who said his previous negotiations with KSS weren't enough because "2 directors just wasn't enough change."
"It's another wasted year," Duskin said of KSS.
Judge wondered how it's been "possibly enough time" to see through the original changes spurred by Macellum. Duskin said it's a "fair question" but that the company has been "failing for a very long time."
Interestingly, Duskin pointed out, "The stock price is below where it was 20 years ago," which charts show is correct.
Addressing Microsoft/ActiVision, Josh Brown opined that there's "too much money out there to begin with."
Raising rates will put more cars on dealer lots or more oil at Cushing (evidently)
On a tepid day for the markets Friday (1/14), Judge spent a chunk of the Halftime Report wondering, "Is the market overdoing it on this fear of rising rates?"
Judge played a clip of Brian Belski from a day ago, plus he replayed Adam Parker saying earlier in the day that anyone who thinks the Fed is raising 4-5 times this year and 4-5 times next year is "really out of their minds."
We just gotta wonder, all these people who keep saying on CNBC that "the Fed is way behind the curve," what exactly are these higher interest rates going to accomplish?
For years now we've been hearing about how great Mary Barra is ... and yet during nearly 2 years of scorching demand, she doesn't have any cars to sell.
If the government's sending out health care workers to hospitals, shouldn't it also be mobilizing workers for chip/automotive factories?
Or is the solution, as hardheads on CNBC tend to claim, raising rates so that people no longer want to buy anything?
Meanwhile ... It took until the 14th minute for someone (Judge) to mention "the Pelotons and the Teladocs." (Drink.)
And we got another Pandemic's-End-Is-Just-Around-Corner prediction. Making the case for tech giants such as MSFT and ADBE, Kevin O'Leary said, "I think we're gonna burn this virus out sometime July, August. ... How many variants can you get? I mean, at some point, the thing goes away."
We had hoped the "Stock Summit" (it's not a "summit" and it's not all about stocks) is over. It's still not. Kevin O'Leary's "Stock Summit" picks are COIN, CVX, OEUR and health care as a sector choice. Degas Wright chose UNH, KEY and INTU and the technology sector.
Note: In many previous years, this page has attempted to make NFL postseason picks, the additional challenge being to pick the entire playoffs before the wild-card games begin. This season, with extra playoff teams and 6 games in the opening weekend and thus so many future playoff matchups variable, it's just too much to ask. We'll wait a week or so before weighing in. (But it's highly possible we'll see a rematch of a Super Bowl from decades ago.)
What about the Einhorn Top of Sept. 2, 2020? (a/k/a The PermaBear Jeffrey Gundlach)
At the beginning of Thursday's (1/13) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal said he's sticking with his correction call; "The last few days feels like a pause in what is going to be a steady rise in interest rates."
Jim said he's "90% invested" but doesn't think the market is "anywhere near the end of the volatility."
But Kari Firestone said, "Interest rates have not moved up at the rate that people thought, even 2 weeks ago."
Nevertheless, "I don't think the selling's over" in the Nasdaq, said Josh Brown, adding there hasn't been "enough damage" yet.
Pete Najarian said the ARKK-ish correction has "been playing out here for a while now." But Pete predicted more "heavy selling" from the "high-multiple, no-multiple-type names."
Brown made a very interesting point that being up another 30% this year doesn't necessarily help long-term investors; he said a flat or down market gives them a chance to buy in, and "most people need to reorient their thinking around this."
After that, the program shifted mostly to The Kari Firestone Show. Judge asked Kari if we're having a "paradigm shift" in multiples for tech stocks. And Kari mentioned Zoom and Teladoc!!!! (This writer is long ZM.) And Pete Najarian mentioned Peloton!!!!! (And it turns out that even Kari SOLD Peloton!!!!!)
Pete said he "caught a lot of flak" on social media about calling Peloton an "expensive clothes hanger."
We thought the "Stock Summit" (it's not a "Summit," and it's not all about stocks) was over. It's STILL not. Kari's "Stock Summit" picks are ADSK, CEM, HQY, and her sector is somehow tech "excluding Apple and Microsoft."
Josh Brown said "a lot of professionals ... classify themselves as either growth managers or value managers. I hate both of those terms." Actually, a lot of professionals on Halftime/Fast Money are classified as "momentum managers."
A day earlier, in a curious discussion, Judge announced that Jeffrey Gundlach would be a guest around the Super Bowl, and he asked Jenny to opine on Jeffrey's 2022 outlook in which he says the yield curve is indicative of trouble.
Jenny responded, "I started thinking about the fact that he's basically a PermaBull. And if you're a PermaBull, you fall under that category of a broken clock is right twice a day, right."
Hmmmm ... Jeffrey Gundlach a broken clock?
A PermaBull?
Judge questioned, "A PermaBull?"
"Sorry! PermaBear! Thank you. Ah! No no, PermaBear, I'm so sorry, thank you for correcting me."
OK. A PermaBear?
Jenny said Gundlach is "generally bearish, a lot of the time."
Hmmmm ... It's been our impression that Gundlach has expressed skepticism of a lot of things ... namely Federal Reserve policy or the stock market's strength independent of Federal Reserve help ... but PermaBear and PermaBull aren't terms that come to mind.
Whatever.
Josh tells Stephanie ‘You will’ buy GOOGL back over $3,000
On Tuesday's (1/11) Halftime Report, perhaps not everyone was a happy camper.
Stephanie Link was asked by Judge to explain why she sold GOOGL. Link said "Because I had a lot of profits, up 65% last year" and then added that "I don't know who, you know, incremental buyer is."
Link went on to redirect the question to why the market had rallied for the last couple days, citing comments from Jamie Dimon. Judge wasn't interested, stating, "OK, I wanna kick around this Alphabet sale, and I wanna start with Josh."
So Brown declared, "She's gonna buy it back over 3,000 this year. Remember I said that."
"No I won't. Actually I won't," Link said.
"You will," Brown said, as Pete Najarian awkwardly chuckled.
"No, no I won't," Link insisted.
"Nah, you will," Brown insisted, citing a "massive technical breakout setting up."
"I'm not gonna pay up $3,000 for Alphabet. I can promise you that," Link concluded.
Brown made GOOGL his Final Trade.
Pete Najarian admitted he'd have "such a difficult time" selling GOOGL right now and thinks it's going higher.
OK ... not going to take sides here ... except to say Link's stated reasons for selling are not reasons anyone should invoke to sell a stock (the stock doesn't care what your basis is) (and the "no incremental buyers left" argument was used with AAPL starting about 15 years ago). A reasonable argument would've been that "FB is a better stock." Make of that what you will.
We thought the "Stock Summit" was done. It's not. Jason Snipe's picks include CVX, QCOM, PNC and sector of health care.
Jim’s timing the market
Last November and early December, Jim Lebenthal was saying at every chance possible that the market would cruise through mid-January before it "crescendoes" like in 2017-18.
We're not yet at that previous "crescendo" point, but Jim is now saying "This market feels heavy," adding on Monday's (1/10) Halftime Report that the Nasdaq looks to him like it's showing signs of a "full-on correction" and the S&P is "not far behind."
But later Jim clarified, lest anyone think he's turning bearish, that "Jobs are plentiful," which is why he's only talking about a "correction" and not a "recession" or "bear market."
Bryn Talkington early in the show suggested "10 to 15% more downside on these high-growth names," then later curiously said the Nasdaq is "definitely oversold," but that "sell the rip" could prevail for a while.
So there might be 15% lower ... but it's "definitely oversold" ... but the rips will get sold again.
Judge kind of had the same routine going himself, reporting that Brad Gerstner is talking about multiple contraction, suggesting they could plunge all the way to November 2018 levels.
But moments later, Judge reported that Tom Lee thinks the Nasdaq 100 might actually be bottoming because it's "so oversold." Rob Sechan said Lee might be "a little early."
Judge complained that Jay Powell in December "spooked" the market and didn't "walk it back." (Yes. Because it's the Fed's job to make sure no one ever experiences a decline in a stock.)
And Judge later reiterated, "the speed in (sic) which they're pivoting has spooked the stock market. I think, in part."
In the 9th minute, Judge mentioned "policy error." (We might have to reinstate that CNBC drinking game when certain terms are mentioned.)
Joe Terranova refreshingly admitted, "So far year to date, the picks that I've made have been absolutely awful." But Joe said there's potential for a "little bit of a short-covering rally" right now.
Steve Weiss seemed to have the best grasp of the Fed's problem, observing that "they can't find people" to work at businesses, and, "How will raising rates change that?"
Weiss said there's only been "minimal advances" in easing the supply chain.
He said it's "almost comical" that the market seems to think momentum only works to the upside. "You still can't justify valuations," Weiss said.
Jim Lebenthal said "Weiss sounds his normally angry self."
(Sigh) We didn't realize Judge is still doing the "Stock Summit." Rob Sechan picked REGN, EOG and JPM, plus XOP as a sector play.
What does an Iranian movie say about the Federal Reserve? Plenty
If you think the world's central banks are all in on easy money, try telling that to Rahim, the beleaguered hero/antihero of "A Hero," an Iranian film just hitting U.S. theaters.
Yes, that's correct — an Iranian film. With easy-money observations.
"A Hero" is directed by Asghar Farhadi, an internationally acclaimed filmmaker who specializes in depictions of the Iranian legal system. The subtle question posed by "A Hero" is whether debtors' prisons are justifiable. Western societies have said no for centuries. "A hero" suggests that in this corner of the world, money has some kind of intrinsic honor. It's not to be messed with, or you could end up in serious trouble. There's no declaring bankruptcy, and there's not any fresh start, not until the debts are paid.
Depicting a financial debt is not easy, and Farhadi's endless scenes of people trying to convince other people of something eventually grow repetitive. The determination of whether Rahim is either unlucky good guy or incompetent hustler, though, is high-quality drama that lingers well after the film.
Many folks on CNBC express concern (that's the polite term) over Federal Reserve/federal government measures for corporations and individuals alike such as ZIRP, quantitative easing, bond-buying, TARP, $600 unemployment bonuses, $1,400 checks. All of those precedents ensure that future recessions are more likely to receive an early-and-often Rx rather than "tough it out" advice.
Wherever you come down on that argument, "A Hero" offers an interesting contrast with a world oblivious to credit-card bailouts.
It's in a few theaters now. It streams on Amazon Prime in 2 weeks.
Pete likes COF
Friday's (1/7) Halftime Report speculated about the potential of rising rates. Judge also thankfully wrapped up the "Stock Summit."
Rich Saperstein chose VST, CNQ and CSCO and suggested large-cap tech as a sector. Pete Najarian said COF, FCX and COP and MRO (somehow he got 4), plus energy as the sector. Shannon Saccocia offered AMZN, AMT and A and industrials as the sector.
On Thursday, Sarat Sethi picked UBER, MS and CMCSA and the financial sector. (This writer is long UBER.) Brenda Vingiello said DIS, BA and BKNG and health care as a sector.
Still trying to get around how the whole year is easier to predict than this week
Thursday's (1/6) Halftime Report was notable in that there seemed to be a hint of concern that the stock market might not slip out of its Cathie Wood Stocks slide anytime soon.
True, Josh Brown vigorously argued that the Federal Reserve isn't going to sink the stock market, and the most skepticism came from Steve Weiss, whose market optimism curiously tends to reflect the last 3 hours of trading.
"The market will continue to be under pressure," Weiss said, adding he's not convinced the "Cathie Wood Stocks" are "low enough" yet.
And that sentiment may be shared by Brown, who said his buy of HOOD, a stock that has seen grim death for months, was just a short-term trade, maybe extremely short term. (This writer is long HOOD.)
But there's hope. Steve Liesman questioned how there can be a significant selloff when it sounded to him like there's a "ton of cash" on the sidelines and every member of Judge's panel seems eager to buy at the next opportunity.
Covered calls for a stock pick
No slight to all the Halftime Report panelists since Monday, but we're done with recapping speeches about the "Stock Summit."
On Tuesday (1/4), Josh Brown revealed his 3 Summit stocks are AOS, RBLX and BRK-B, and his sector is biotech.
Anastasia Amoroso's picks apparently include the XBI. It was either a "stock" pick or a "sector" pick. (Judge never clarified which one. Nor did he clarify what Anastasia's other "Summit" picks are.)
Bryn Talkington likes LIT, VNOM, COIN (with covered calls) (Sigh) (because it can't be a simple contest) and the XLE.
Jim Lebenthal's picks are CLF, BA and VIAC. His sector pick was XLB though he said he wanted to pick energy. Josh Brown, in the first of his skepticism during this feature, suggested CLF is a "binary" play, it's either "cut in half or doubles."
Stephanie Link's Summit picks are BAC, WYNN and IBM, plus a sector pick of "value tech." Josh Brown questioned whether IBM's M&A will be "good M&A" because it's selling off assets that resulted from "bad M&A." Stephanie defended the new management and said buying Red Hat was a "brilliant move."
Meanwhile, Brown said he exited STOR because of some management changes. (He said he had "80% or so gains," which doesn't do anyone any good.)
Brown said he bought CG, one of the "crown jewels" of private equity but the only one he said without a dual-share class. He predicted one of these names will join the S&P 500.
Jim Lebenthal said he trimmed AAPL because he doesn't see any more multiple expansion.
Judge said he's "super excited" that Jim Cramer is going to be on the show tomorrow. Later, after about the 3rd promo for this visit, Judge referred to "the great Jim Cramer."
Like it’s easier to predict a team’s record next season than whether it wins next week
Somewhere around halfway through Monday's (1/3) Halftime Report, we realized, to our horror, that Judge was going to allow panelists to make a speech about all 4 stocks/sectors they've chosen in the Halftime Report's "Stock Summit." (Note: It's not a "summit" of any kind, and it's not actually about that many stocks.)
But more on that in a moment.
Consider what Jenny Harrington said about forecasts ...
"I also think that a very short period like the first week is very hard to predict, I think the long, you know, a long-, a year, is always easier to predict."
That's interesting. A panelist thinks it's "easier" to predict an entire year than one week.
This is the holy grail type of question for investors.
We're thinking Jenny's wrong, that the shorter the duration, the easier to predict. Can we prove it? Can anyone? No. But the idea that Jenny has a better grasp on where CSCO is going to finish the year vs. finish the week?
We doubt it.
Tech up 20% is not a very big call (a/k/a Most people are not subscribing to Cisco Prime)
Steve Weiss declared at the top of Monday's (1/3) Halftime Report, "Today the market is trading as if COVID is done, completely over," perhaps because people are becoming "immune to the lockdowns."
Ignoring the green ticker on the screen as the show aired, Jenny Harrington said she agrees with Liz Young on market headwinds; "The wind is in our face right now."
But Jon Najarian said he thinks the headwinds (snicker) will be in our face, but "obviously today, they are not in our face."
Judge announced that Wedbush was making a "very big call" — that tech stocks will be up 20% (Zzzzzzzz). Liz Young said she agrees it's a "very big call" but doesn't agree with it.
Jenny Harrington insisted that among names such as TER, AMAT and CSCO, "many of them outpaced the FAANG."
Then Jenny opined, "One of the things I've thought about on why we haven't spoken about them as much is because they're simply not as interesting. Every single person can have a personal story about Amazon ... that's not true in the same way for Cisco, even though every one of us is using Cisco products right now to even be on the show, and most people are using them in their house one way or another."
Evidently, a reason she hasn't thought about is that AMZN's revenue has doubled since 2018 while CSCO's is about the same.
But whatever.
Meanwhile, "It's a great day for the EV space," Doc crowed.
Then ... oh my ... Judge introduced the Halftime Report "Stock Summit."
Judge said the rules are "3 stock picks and 1 sector." At first, we thought, "Great, a fun way to keep track of panelist picks. We'll jot these down."
Joe Terranova started it off, suggesting UNH (health care is his sector pick) will go "well into the 500s," and he made a case for XM, which he said belongs "well above 50." Judge cautioned that "it's not a profitable business." Joe also picked IBKR, because of "higher volatility" and its crypto exposure.
Then, Liz Young picked the DRIV and FEZ and SPLV, which doesn't sound like it's meeting the "rules" of 3 stocks and 1 sector. Liz said autonomous/electric vehicles is the place to play in tech, and she predicted Europe "starts to come back" and then "has a nice second half." Liz said SPLV is a good option for a "whiplash" environment. Judge said Liz's sector pick is financials.
Jon Najarian for some reason complained about the "slippage" in trying to trade European equities.
Then came Jenny Harrington. Jenny's sector pick was energy. Her stock picks were NYCB, SBLK and WU. Jenny said she's looking for "specific events" in these stocks, including a merger for NYCB, "capital discipline" for SBLK and a new CEO for WU. "The truth is, I really want to win this," Jenny explained.
We were starting to wonder, Oh gosh, is Judge really going to allow every panelist to make a speech about every one of these picks?? Eventually Judge found he had to cut off Jenny.
When it came time for Steve Weiss, he picked POAHY, "the best risk/reward" in his portfolio, QRVO, and ON, and Judge finally speeded things up, and Weiss was afforded little more than a couple soundbites. He said QRVO could get acquired and ON is sold out for the whole year and the stock could go up 50%. Weiss' sector pick was technology.
Doc offered MGM, CRM and PYPL. His sector was semiconductors, an "easy pick." He cited PYPL's user base, MGM's recovery potential and CRM as a leader in the space. (This writer is long PYPL.)
Judge said "we'll continue this all week long." We may skip the rest of the week's picks. (While we scratch our heads at no one picking QQQ. Because that "sector" couldn't possibly outperform anything.)
2021 was Weiss’ year
(but Josh & Pete impressively nailed a call of their own)
Traditionally, this page attempts to do a year-end "special edition" saluting the best stock calls of the year on the Halftime Report/Fast Money (and also singling out the busts, and anything, in general, that was kinda funny).
For 2021, we can easily take care of the best — Steve Weiss' campaign for MRNA, since actually late 2020.
It's a call that was so good, this page was asking in the spring, "Who's playing for 2nd?"
And we've got a strong candidate for that position also. It's not one of the show's panelists. It's Tom Lee.
In fact, there's a fine argument that Lee should be No. 1, the way he capped off another successful year of buy-the-dip encouragement by suggesting a bottom around Christmas Eve.
A year ago, Ricky Sandler got this page's Call of the Year for his mid-March 2020 buy call. Lee's opinions are more like the whole rather than sum of the parts, so it'll have to be runner-up.
Very close runners-up to the runner-up are Josh Brown and Pete Najarian, for the "over/under" they gave to Al Michaels (yes, the sportscaster) on Sept. 30 about year-end Dow, then trading over 34,000. Brown predicted a record high at year-end; Pete said "36,000." Both were spot-on.
Then again, there was Fish in September warning of possible $6-$12 in nat gas. And there was Weiss and Jon Najarian gushing in January about how they were going to make all this money on their double-digit GME puts they bought for March. And Jenny Harrington on July 1 actually said she can "guarantee" that stock market performance for the rest of the year "won't be a straight line."
Other 2021 memorable moments of the Halftime Report/Fast Money:
Best observation about the current business world: Jeffrey Gundlach in July told Judge that he went to a restaurant, and there was one regular waiter and one trainee, and the service was "terrible."
Not necessarily the best observation about the current business world: Anthony Scaramucci on May 14 discussed the lack of job-takers, stating, "Some of them have cash jobs, off-the-books jobs, black-market jobs if you will, uh, and they're out there working."
Proof they don't use a 7-second delay on CNBC: Lee Cooperman on Jan. 28 says the refrain of Democratic politicians about people paying their "fair share" of taxes is "bulls---."
Goofiest/funniest interview of the year: Dave Tepper, in shorts and T-shirt, snickering at Judge about whether he "likes" the market on a "personal basis."
Best suggestion of the year: Judge wondering if AMZN should split. (Judge reported on April 30 that Susquehanna put a $5,500 target on the stock.)
Yet to be decided: Steve Weiss on May 21 says bitcoin is a "Greater Fool Theory."
Best defense (of a team that had little): Rob Sechan insisted to any people tweeting about the Steelers helmet visible in his office that he'll proudly display that helmet no matter how bad the record is.
Most forgotten stock recommendation: After spending a year constantly predicting the 737 Max would be reapproved much earlier than it actually was, panelists stopped being interested in buying BA.
Over-rated: Herb Greenberg on Jan. 25 suggested there might be "foreign powers" involved in GME.
Most interesting prediction: Joe Terranova says on Oct. 13 that there's no "onset" of a bear market on the horizon in the next 12 months.
Worst cliché of the year: "And oh by the way" ... but oh by the way, that one was actually fading by year-end.
Classiest comment of the year: Dec. 31, Karen Finerman telling the Fast Money crew, "And Mel, happy to be here every day, or how many days of the week with you guys, and, it's such an honor, thank you."
"We are the lucky ones, Karen," said MLee.
As always, people are gonna wonder, How did Judge do? Commanding what's emerged, for various reasons, as CNBC's flagship program (why do you think Jim Cramer has to be on it once a week), Judge is actually approaching the level of recognition where you can walk into a random McDonald's and ask how many people have heard of him and find a significant percentage nodding their heads. For now, one big issue he can't control (panelists at their homes, with video delays, not in any kind of sync), and another he quite possibly can (too many panelists, especially too many who are infrequently on and contribute little to the dialogue) are going to remain headwinds. For now, Judge needs more scoops and a few headlines. He isn't quite yet to the Halftime Report what Tim Russert was to Meet the Press. But he's getting there. And he's giving viewers stuck at home for nearly 2 years running a reason to look forward to afternoon television. To Judge and the panel, this page says again, Keep doin' what you're doin'.
Sometimes when panelists say something, they don’t know how correct they actually are
On Friday's (12/31) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss said this:
"Even raising rates is not, for the near-term, gonna tamp down inflation."
Hmmm.
Jim: CLF $30 by June 30
Dec. 31 should've been a bit of a Halftime Report party (no, we weren't going to refer to Judge asking Joe about a "single digit" opinion on 2022), but Jim Lebenthal was having none of the punch bowl.
"I'm not in a buying mood, at all," Jim grumbled.
Fortunately that wasn't the case for Josh Brown, who was given the floor by Judge at the top of the show to discuss Brown's buy of RBLX. Brown called Roblox "the next big platform."
"This is the metaverse already," Brown added.
Brown also tried to downplay concerns about the annual red herring, Fed uncertainty. "The Fed is not going to deliberately invert the yield curve," Brown told Judge after a clumsy exchange of talking over each other about interest rates.
Brown again predicted supply chain disruptions will ease and there will be "tons of semiconductors" and "tons of trucks" in 2022.
Steve Weiss said he would disagree somewhat, stating he sees rates going up toward 2%, "and the Fed doesn't have to invert the yield curve to get there by the way."
Weiss also suggested the possibility of ... drum roll please ... China rattling sabers over Taiwan and dumping Treasurys (snicker).
Jim Lebenthal got Fast-Fired by a viewer tweet for predicting CLF would be $30 by 2022. Jim said he'll put a "June 30th" timeline on that one. (Jim was also talking up QCOM $200 maybe by 2021 year-end late last year.)
Weiss said he's staying in DKS and that the stock will do well.
Karen Finerman, back after a break, announced on Friday's 5 p.m. Fast Money that banks are her trade for 2022.
Speaking of ‘tunnel vision’ ...
Cathie Wood certainly doesn't need this page to rush to her defense.
But it will anyway.
Judge on Thursday's (12/30) Halftime Report said that Cathie is talking about how those ARKK-y stocks might become en vogue again in 2022 if Wall Street starts fearing recession more than inflation.
Jon Najarian suggested that those ARKK names might bounce regardless in January when tax-loss selling is over with.
All fair opinions, well and good.
Jenny Harrington, though, quibbled with Cathie's apparent assertion that those ARKK-y stocks have been "maligned." Jenny insisted that "these stocks never should've been at those prices."
Jenny also took a jab at the notion of Cathie as a "true believer," stating true believers can get "tunnel vision."
Now, that's the point where Judge should've said, "What's the definition of a 'true believer'?"
Because we're wondering what's the difference between being a "believer" in IBM, INTC and CSCO ... and being a "believer" in TSLA, TDOC and ZM. (This writer is long ZM.)
We're also wondering how the latter has "tunnel vision," and the former — who constantly rejects virtually every high-multiple stock that is mentioned, even if it's up 10,000% such as TSLA, simply because of the multiple — evidently does not.
Steve Weiss said he's "actually fully invested."
It’s Judge’s own fault for giving Joe a 92-second filibuster
On Wednesday's (12/29) Halftime Report, Judge reported on a "CNBC stock survey" that showed 55% of respondents see a single-digit year ahead for the S&P 500, and Judge made the mistake of asking Joe Terranova if he agrees.
Joe was allowed to give a speech in which he explained that he likes to give himself low expectations.
Afterwards, Judge accused Joe of "punting" and said he'd ask Joe the same question again.
"Let's make it up like everyone else does," Joe protested.
"Are we making it up?" Judge asked.
"People come on the network (sic it's basically a 'channel'), people come on, the financial services industry (typically that's the industry covered by CNBC; it's not like English Premier League players are brought in to give S&P opinions), and they throw out targets on what they think it's going to be 1 year from now, and without question, the answer is, no one knows, Scott," Joe bristled.
"I'm not pinning you on a, on a target," Judge insisted, but he wants to know if these survey respondents who see less than 10% next year are correct.
"I'm not gonna argue with you over whether I'm giving a target or not," Joe insisted, before adding that 2022 "is gonna be a much harder year than it was in 2021."
As to whether it's a single-digit or double-digit year, Joe protested, "I'm just not smart enough to know that."
Pete Najarian had no problem predicting "more than 10% to the upside" in 2022.
This all took place after Joe predicted 15-20 basis points higher in the 10-year in the "next couple weeks."
So basically, Joe is telling us where the 10-year yield is going in the next 2 weeks, and he's telling us how 2022 is going to compare to 2021 ... but he's not able to render an opinion on S&P "single digits" for 2022.
Judge mentioned that a "Fed mistake" (snicker) is "high on people's lists" of biggest risks to the market.
Judge said the WSJ reported that 85% of active stock funds were underperforming the S&P 500. #BuytheQQQ
Judge made a Sean Landeta reference and then impressively noted that Ray Guy is the only punter in the Hall of Fame.
Jim’s starting to bail
The consensus of Tuesday's (10/28) Halftime Report seemed to be that the 2nd half of 2022 will be better than the 1st.
Jim Lebenthal started things off with a vote for the former, suggesting a "10%-plus correction in the 1st quarter" and stating, "I have already started to trim, and next week, I will start to trim." (The second phrase sounds redundant.) Jim said the great returns of 2021 "can't continue," because of a "little hawkish" Fed.
Judge told Jim, "It does feel like you're trying to time things though." Judge brought up Tom Lee's "really treacherous" comment a day earlier, a comment that's bound to be Judge's bear counterargument for the next 3 weeks.
Then Judge told Jon Najarian, "This really is a conversation about momentum." (And if Doc wanted to be snarky, he could be like Col. Nathan Jessep and say, "Is there any other kind on this program?")
Doc indicated he agrees with Jim's point and likes the 2nd half of 2022 better than the 1st but is looking to capitalize on volatility all along. Judge questioned that time frame, suggesting that in the 2nd half, there will be "more turbulence than you will have in the 1st half," including "multiple (snicker) rate hikes" and midterm elections (President Joe Manchin). Doc said "I'm not the one raising cash."
Bryn Talkington suggested the returns of 2022 could be "back-end-loaded" in the 2nd half.
Pointing to the Russell and "within the Nasdaq," Bryn contended the "average" stock is down about 34%, and so "There's a big bear market going underneath the surface." (Thankfully, she didn't say "rolling bear market.")
Doc said he bought AMZN calls simply because someone else did.
Judge gave Bryn Talkington a Fast Fire for recommending ROKU a while back as a 2nd-half pick. Bryn said it got up to 480, and "I definitely said to sell calls against it."
Tom Lee actually predicted a market bottom last week, and it might’ve happened, and Judge didn’t even care
Even before Tom Lee turned up (during his vacation, we heard a couple times) on Monday's (12/27) Halftime Report, Judge actually asked a couple panelists if the recent rally is only a "last burst" (snicker) into year-end until the market supposedly comes to grips with the gravity of what the Federal Reserve will do.
See, whenever the market is down, it's OMIGOD IT'S OVER!!!!! And whenever it's up, it's just the "last burst" (snicker) and you're buying the top.
Joe Terranova advised viewers not to be in the "more speculative areas" of the stock market. Because everyone's clamoring to buy Peloton these days.
Lee, though, asserted, "I think the rally we're seeing has a lot of fuel."
He suggested the market has "already bottomed" and that the S&P could see 5,000 in early January. Judge responded, "Yeah. Then what happens." So Judge is inching close to calling a top in early January. (BECAUSE IT HAS TO GO TO 6,000 IN A WEEK OR ELSE WE'RE GOING DOWN!!!!)
Judge said the "money line" of his interview with Lee is Lee's belief that 2022 can be "really treacherous" (snicker) (double and triple snicker). Shannon Saccocia said this year has been kind of "treacherous" too.
Hoping Karen will comment
on ‘Licorice Pizza’
"Licorice Pizza," which spent about a month in limited release, is finally being unleashed nationwide, and not without controversy ... although unlike in some clever film operations, it's not the type of controversy that's going to send 18-year-olds rushing to theaters, but the kind that prompts parenthesesed (is that a word?) disclaimers in graybeard critics' reviews.
One observer we'd like to hear from is CNBC Fast Money panelist Karen Finerman, who, despite being significantly younger than the characters in the movie, hails from the same turf and is familiar with these times and could easily be a stand-in for Alana Haim, who looks under 20 and was actually 28 but calls herself 25 in the movie, and who's only, you know, kinda The World's Most Beautiful Woman right now. (As a matter of fact, we even started to wonder if Karen's sister Wendy, who once brought the Oscar for "Forrest Gump" to the Fast Money set, might've been one of the producers. She's not.)
One of the most episodic movies in decades, "Licorice" doesn't really add up. Yes, there's a clever contrast. The two stars behave as though they are each other's age. The big problem here is the motivation of Gary, who seems savvy enough to get ahead and defend the girl at the same time but is oddly into sabotage. Far more often than most viewers realize, most movie couples are unbelievable. (Mike & Kay in "The Godfather"? Sure. Yeah, right.) That's why they call it Willful Suspension of Disbelief. So the fact Alana and Gary are pals is not a great stretch (though the idea that neither seems able to get other dates probably is). "Licorice" never really convinces that anything its young "couple" does, whether at school, at work or even whether they end up together, matters. Restaurant scenes — no matter which restaurant, though one of them provokes obvious controversy — are abysmal, borderline dreck. Sean Penn doesn't belong in the movie and is just as superfluous as Al Pacino in “Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood.” There's also a goof that's not yet mentioned in the Internet Movie Database, that Vin Scully is heard broadcasting Steve Garvey's RBI total in 1974 and then months later, the characters are looking at a newspaper headline about Dick Williams resigning from the Oakland A's, which occurred in October of 1973. (Sigh.)
Haim's astonishing success suggests, as does "House of Gucci," that music stars might be better at Hollywood than, say, Lee Strasberg's crew. But "Licorice" nevertheless is a boy's movie. Gary could be Jack Black, Belushi, Chris Farley. This one's for all who ever got Alana's attention, or tried.
Josh says Jenny’s FANG prediction is the same wrong prediction she made a year ago
On Tuesday's (12/21) Halftime Report, guest-hosted by MLee, Jenny Harrington knocked not only the "high octane" stocks, as she always does, but said FANG's growth doesn't indicate further outperformance (and as always, Jenny will spend 60 hours a week picking between IBM and GM and CSCO while others just buy the QQQ). (This writer is long QQQ.)
Josh Brown told Jenny she's "entitled to your opinion," but the "facts are the facts," and "you didn't think any of these would outperform this year either," because he remembers a "variety" of disagreements over the past year.
Jenny responded by referring to "any historical comparison" (snicker), which of course means "dot-com boom," and the elite 5-10 stocks apparently have always "relatively plateaued for the following decade."
Jenny said AAPL won't have another big year, pointing to projected earnings growth and stating "that math simply doesn't work for it to be up another 35%."
Steve Weiss played the role of Mike Mayo, stating, "I think next year will be the year of financials."
Tom Lee: Bottom this week
Guest host MLee buried the lede a little bit on Monday's (12/20) Halftime Report. After a choppy opening, Mel reported that Tom Lee thinks, if Omicron peaks in January, then stocks will bottom sometime from Dec. 22-24.
Steve Weiss said, "I think it's ridiculous to try and call bottoms," and especially, calling them "to the day that you expect them to happen" is "even more ridiculous."
Weiss said he's "happy to be patient."
Weiss said the market is most concerned about COVID and not as much, right now, about the Fed, except the Fed "is tightening monetary policy at the wrong time." Liz Young said she'd question that, then Weiss cut in to say he didn't mean he thinks it's tightening at the wrong time, but that the market perception is that it's at the wrong time.
Weiss said this is a "great opportunity" to buy financials. (He mentioned on the show quite a bit over the last 10 years buying Citigroup. How well has that one done?)
Chris Hyzy suggested now is the "opportunity to reposition" a portfolio.
Jim not seeing a happy ending, but Doc salutes Edward G. Robinson
Though he'd been predicting for weeks that the market will cruise into mid-January before it "crescendoes," Jim Lebenthal on Thursday's (12/16) Halftime Report offered an alternate theory, stating he's selling NOC to raise cash.
Jim, who called Wednesday's gains "nonsensical," which Judge mentioned 4 or 5 times, said the Fed has "clearly run out of patience" with inflation and contended, "That's a bad thing for the market."
Meanwhile, star guest Tom Lee was essentially unflappable, insisting that the market wants "a Fed that sorta still has the market's back."
Lee curiously claimed that 5-year growth in the population of 30-50-year-olds is "highly correlated with patent growth."
Judge asked Lee if he's "comfortable" recommending travel stocks. Lee said travel stocks are like homebuilders "post-GFC." (We think GFC means Great Financial Crisis.) He said the cost cuts will pay off, though it's "tough" to own them before year-end.
Jon Najarian said airlines aren't getting business dollars; people who are flying are "not men and women in suits who are going out to do business; it's people going out for experiences."
Brad Gerstner didn't say anything about The Board Challenge, but he did say that Altimeter's market exposure is "back up closer to 70%."
Gerstner said "we've seen record dispersion" and "real selectivity" in the software space. He said he's added to SNOW and RBLX.
Gerstner ditched PTON because of the "negative surprise."
Judge asked "what in the world" is going on at GRAB, Gerstner's SPAC. Gerstner mentioned GRAB's competitors and said "all of these names are down 30-40%."
Doc dumped his RIVN calls because of "too much put activity."
Josh Brown said he "still wouldn't buy" HOOD and made a reference to a quote from "The Ten Commandments." (This writer is long HOOD.) Doc congratulated Brown for invoking Edward G. Robinson.
‘Everybody’s incredulous’
Generally speaking, episodes of the Halftime Report airing a couple hours before Fed revelations are sleepy, and such was the case on Wednesday (12/15).
"Omicron is clearly what's driving the market at this point, in conjunction with a tightening Fed," offered Steve Weiss.
Weiss said he's long the SARK, the "inverse to Cathie Wood's holdings."
Weiss said he's been talking to bankers "at probably half a dozen firms" in the last week and a half, and "everybody's incredulous, still, at the valuations."
Asked about fallen tech stocks, Joe Terranova cautioned that they'll continue to be sold for tax losses into year-end. "The calendar's your enemy," Joe explained.
Judge asked Degas Wright about Tesla. Degas started to point out the charging stations Tesla is putting up around the country, but Judge interrupted and said an assessment like that "doesn't do anything for me." Degas stressed Tesla's strength in batteries as well as cars.
Jenny Harrington said "thesises." And Jenny also touted the regional banks (Zzzzzzz) and kind of shrugged off the warning to MDT.
Rolling bear market, rolling correction, fire & ice ... Morgan Stanley has been warning of a downturn for 4 years (a/k/a Buy the QQQ)
There aren't many folks on Wall Street who are always correct, but the Morgan Stanley Strategy Dept. apparently qualifies.
Consider this quote on Tuesday's (12/14) Halftime Report: "It's pretty clear, the Fire & Ice narrative that we laid out back in September is what's happening. The ice portion has not happened."
It has happened.
And it hasn't happened.
See? They're right!
Judge at one point said to the head of this operation, "If you- every time you're on, you continue to say we're gonna have a correction, and then, you know, the next time, we're gonna have a correction, and then, the next time we're gonna have a correciton, or your note suggests that, um, eventually you're gonna be right, but that's not necessarily fair to investors."
But then Judge even said, "You, you have been dead right for many many months."
Sure, Judge.
Define for us this "rolling correction."
Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley congratulated Judge on a "great book report" about Morgan Stanley's "Fire & Ice" timeline.
Of course, when your S&P target is anywhere from 3,900 to 5,000, how can you go wrong?
Brown: Inflation has peaked
While Wall Street struggles with inflation data and Fed forecasts, Josh Brown on Tuesday's (12/14) Halftime Report bluntly declared the worst is in the rear-view mirror.
Brown asserted that November was the month "where inflation has peaked."
He said the "absolute worst" of the supply shocks are behind us, "a classic blow-off top."
"This is it," Brown asserted, adding that in Q1, we'll see "inventories start to be flooded" and "semiconductor shipments explode" and the "supply of cars and trucks explode."
Brown said wage gains will stick, but that's the "right type of inflation."
This page in particular will note Brown's reference to cars and semiconductors. At some point, hopefully soon, he's going to be correct, and those supplies are going to flip in a big way.
Whether it happens in Q1, we'll just have to see.
Judge promises ‘Fire & Ice’ Tuesday
Monday's (12/13) Halftime Report was a little devoid of guests, devoid of drama and devoid of pizzazz. In a rarity, "Dr. New World" ended up doing nearly all the talking.
Joe said AAPL is the "5th-largest economy in the world" in the midst of a curious speech in which he concluded that AAPL is no longer to be thought of as an "individual equity" but an "actual asset."
After Steve Weiss gave his own take on the stock, Joe accused Weiss of having "completely dismissed everything I said on it being an actual financial asset." Weiss insisted he agrees with that.
Weiss is in 25% cash, asserting some companies are "unreasonably valued," which could cause "further dislocation" in the market.
Jim Lebenthal revealed that he still had to spend an hour with Weiss later in the afternoon.
Joe said he's "very willing" to jump in to CRWD around 200.
Joe told Judge that "without question," you have to be concerned about the yield curve inverting.
Invoking one of his favorite terms of the past, Joe said his Cheniere positions are "in the penalty box," and he asked Judge to "cut my mike" if he starts talking about natural gas in the next 3 months.
Joe said someone texted him at the beginning of the show that he looked "angry."
Doc actually made PTON his finally trade; "big bounce-back coming."
Rob Sechan defends Steelers helmet in the face of a pending debacle
This page used to dabble a lot more in football commentary than it does now.
Largely because of games such as Thursday night's.
We've been secretly wondering all year whether the yinz could actually, in a weak AFC, put together a late-season run and perhaps send off not only the quarterback but maybe more than one management-level personnel with a wonderful retirement gift.
Doesn't look like it now.
It's not that they lost. It's the way they played.
Anyway. On Friday's (12/10) Halftime Report, Rob Sechan revealed, "I'm gettin' a lot of comments on the helmet in the background, the Steeler helmet. Guys, I don't care if they're 0-16 (sic it's a 17-game season now), I'm gonna be a Steelers fan."
Well, that kind of loyalty is admirable. (What Sechan didn't say is that 0-16 would be a lot better than what's happening this year, they could rebuild a lot faster.)
Nevertheless, guest host Sully insisted they not talk about it. "I took the Steelers +3 last night," Sully said, and he benched Dalvin Cook on his fantasy team.
Gold as a play on negative real rates; Cathie Wood’s ‘tendency to buy headline stocks’
Before we caught the tape of Friday's (12/10) Halftime Report, we heard some interesting real-time Power Lunch commentary from Ron Insana, who opined, "We're probably hitting peak inflation," and Mike Farr, who added that "A year from now, we could have gluts in certain areas."
On the Halftime Report, Amy Raskin wasn't exactly singing the same tune, stating, "I think we're heading into a very different paradigm and a very different investment environment, um, in 2022 and beyond," an environment that will be "better for cyclicals and economically sensitive stocks."
Later in the show, Amy touted gold over crypto. Guest host Sully asked Amy to make the case for gold. Amy stated, "Gold tends to do very well when, um, when, when real rates are negative." She added, "We think gold will more likely move with inflation as, as we move into extended period of time with inflation, um, with inflation rising."
Kevin O'Leary talked up COIN. O'Leary said you either like crypto or you don't. "I'm in the like it camp," he said. Rob Sechan claimed crypto is "game-changing."
Jeremy Siegel stated the Fed without question is "going to accelerate the pivot" next week and is still "way" behind the curve. Sully impressively asked what Siegel means by "pivot." Siegel followed by saying the Fed announced it would "double" the taper and then he said he thinks the Fed will have to raise rates "immediately" after the taper ends. (So we're still not sure what he means by "pivot," other than, tapering and hiking after not tapering or hiking.)
Sarat Sethi laid out an extensive bull case for ORCL. Rob Sechan made the case for REGN that sounded humdrum ("it trades cheap"). Pete Najarian dialed in to talk up ASO and stressed a P.E. ratio of 8.
Amy Raskin actually made SFIX her Final Trade.
On Thursday's (12/9) show, ARKK funds were a hot topic. Josh Brown said of Cathie Wood, "She has a tendency to buy headline stocks."
Bryn Talkington said "Cathie gets painted (sic meant to add 'with') such a, unfair broad brush," noting DKNG is "like a 2%" position in ARKK and Tesla is "an 8 and a half percent position."
Bryn made an interesting observation related to an ongoing series of this site — where and how people should distribute their money, either upon death or earlier. "The Baby Boomers have all the money, OK. But the largest demographic today are the millennials. And they are just starting to get money and they're gonna inherit all that money," Bryn said.
Jim Lebenthal said "200's a bit of a reach" for AAPL by year-end. He said he'd trim in January; Judge questioned why he'd think about selling it. Jim said sometimes sentiment can get "frothy" in either direction.
Judge still won’t ask anyone if Bob Chapek will be Disney’s CEO in 3 years
The only notable debate on Wednesday's (12/8) Halftime Report came in the opening commentary, when Shannon Saccocia said it's "pretty clear that it was really COVID and not Powell that we were all concerned about last week."
Moments later, Jon Najarian said Saccocia was "exactly right." Steve Weiss did not agree, saying last week's drop was "definitely" caused by Powell.
Meanwhile, Joe Terranova announced, "I'll buy Crowdstrike on the close today." Weiss said that CRWD and others do not have the "all clear."
Doc insisted this will be a "tiptoe taper" done with "baby steps."
Shannon Saccocia claimed DIS stock is having an "identity crisis."
Doc suggested that if GME doesn't have a great earnings report, some of its loud backers might decide to bail.
‘Deserves a higher multiple’
The beginning of Tuesday's (12/7) Halftime Report couldn't have been more useless to anyone unable to make Time Machine Trades as Jon Najarian gloated about buying SQ at "175 or less" and SOFI at "14.70 I think, or something like that."
Congrats. What price did you buy them for on Tuesday?
Meanwhile, we've begun to notice that Coronavirus Fatigue, which probably emerged during the first couple weeks of this in 2020, has on CNBC been reaching Boeing Status, which we define as "People predicting month after month after month that the bad stuff is gonna be over really soon."
Tuesday's example was Marko Kolanovic stating, "We believe that coronavirus is sort of declining globally," among other commentary.
Jenny Harrington made a special appearance to talk up INTC (she'd be better off in the QQQ, but Judge doesn't have the brass to tell her that). (This writer is long QQQ.)
One curious thing we heard from Jenny is that Intel's free cash flow "deserves a higher multiple than it's getting."
See, all the stocks that Jenny likes deserve a higher multiple.
And all the stocks she doesn't like are going to get a lower multiple as the owners of those shares have to hold them to infinity.
Jenny, in a bit of candor, actually told Judge, "I should've gotten in now, not a year and change ago." (She should've gotten in QQQ a year and change ago and stayed there.)
She added, "I think the puck is going in their direction now." (Which is basically what everyone should believe about every stock they buy.)
Steve Weiss was likewise accorded a guest appearance to talk up one of his usuals, Volkswagen and/or Porsche. We don't know honestly how good those stocks have been or might be, but we just know, after hearing every day on this show about the greatness of General Motors and the oh-my-multiple-riskiness of Tesla, we're not really interested in hearing about other carmakers — unless that would be TSLA, which of course no one on the show ever wants to buy. (This writer has no position in TSLA.)
Jim Lebenthal said SBUX "blew it" in the last quarter, and his portfolio position in the name is "on thin ice"; he might opt to sell.
Joe appears on-air with
sharp new background
Judge opened Monday's (12/6) Halftime Report by asking Joe Terranova which tech stocks to buy.
Joe said Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Facebook, and then curiously added, "Anything related to innovation." (It seems there probably are a lot of stocks that have "innovation" but don't have trillion-dollar market caps, but whatever.) And somehow, Steve Weiss didn't start up the "Apple isn't an innovator" conversation.
Weiss said stocks that have done "extremely well" and are "very expensive," such as NVDA, "you can't buy them right now." Weiss claimed DOCU is "still very expensive" because it doesn't have a "moat." (This writer is long DOCU.) A lot of panelists on these shows gloat whenever a high P.E. name falls (because according to those panelists, you have to hold every stock you buy until infinity), but you never hear much when those names are up 50%.
"I believe the momentum market is over at this point," Weiss claimed; he's probably going to be wrong, but whatever.
Bryn Talkington was asked about ARK stocks. "We're not buying any more now," Bryn said, "Because you really have to respect the market here."
In a twist on Guy Adami's old saw about stairs up/elevator down, Bryn said these stocks "move up somewhat on an escalator, but they sure do come down on an elevator."
Joe said of ARKK, "It's now lower today than it was at the low point in March."
Steve Liesman said the Fed "did a 180" in November. Then he mentioned the possibility of a bunch of what-ifs that we all know are determined by what's going on in the stock market in any given week.
Joe sold SGEN; "Biotech in this environment will continue to struggle."
Liz Young said she's technically a "geriatric millennial."
Joe pointed out that Cathie Wood hasn't "blessed" the valuation of RIVN, and Joe prefers a more "reasonable" valuation such as Ford or ... wait for the drum roll ... yes ... the Halftime group's greatest company/greatest stock of all time ... GM.
Leslie Picker reported on the volatility of BZFD, pointing out redemption takers.
We did catch some material from last week's Thursday and Friday shows and were planning to put together a few notes, but it wasn't really that earth-shattering (other than Weiss gloating about how he's been cautious on the market recently), and we may just not get to it.
