CNBCfix - Fast Money Review

[CNBCfix Fast Money/Halftime Report Review Archive — March 2023]

Desperate for drama, Judge resorts to hyperbole (a/k/a Weiss is waiting for Tepper to give the all clear) (but first Tepper has to draft a quarterback)

It's not often this page comes rushing to Steve Weiss' defense, but for whatever reason, Judge was a little over the top on Friday's (3/31) Halftime.

In somewhat of a grand statement, Judge told Weiss, "I just don't understand how you are overwhelmingly negative, OK."

Judge said Weiss bought META this week, added more Thursday, bought the QQQ Thursday night and added more Friday, "but yet you always say that you don't wanna buy these megacap tech stocks because you think, in your words, 'I can get them cheaper.' Can you help me understand this?"

"Sure. Absolutely," Weiss said. "I'm here to preserve capital, I'm here to make money when I can make money. So, I tend to be active; this is- these are great trading markets," adding that META has "great momentum" and that he didn't make a "big bet" on the QQQ and still has a "ton of cash."

Moments later, Judge expressed disbelief that "of all the places that you're buying into the market, it's in the place that's ripped the most??"

Weiss insisted that META is at "19 times." He said if he'd bought NVDA, he'd understand Judge's "consternation."

We get that Judge needs exciting material; we don't get why he's hectoring any panelist for doing trading on a show that was created as a trading show with the name "Fast Money."

(Next week, maybe Judge will say that Weiss "bailed" on some of his trades.)

Kari Firestone, meanwhile, touted the strength of tech; Judge said, "I have more people Kari coming on lately saying 'Fade, fade tech. Don't buy it here.'" (Obviously Weiss isn't one of them since he's been buying the QQQ and META.)

"Those are mostly people who don't own these stocks," Kari explained.

"They're some of your friends on this show," Judge said twice; "not gonna mention any names."

"They're still my friends," Kari said.

Jason Snipe said, "It's likely that you should take some off the table as it relates to some of these, some of these tech names."

Later on, Weiss insisted his QQQ is a "trading position." Judge said, "You don't have to get defensive about it."

"I'm not, I'm trying to explain it to you," Weiss said.

Weiss questions why it’s OK for Kari to trade but not for him to trade

Judge on Friday's (3/31) Halftime Report questioned why Kari Firestone sold FRC.

This page chronicled a week ago that Kari and Jim Lebenthal quickly changed their tune on that stock after it tumbled into the teens. (This writer lost money on FRC this month and has no position.) Kari said Friday she bought "around 30" and was out "totally" at 17.

Steve Weiss cut in to tell Judge in deadpan humor, "I just don't understand the trading mentality." Weiss said he's just "making an observation that it's OK to trade some and it's not OK to trade others." But he said Kari's "exit" on FRC was "great."

Weiss said he didn't catch the bottom of DE last week but he got it lower as he recently predicted he would.

Judge said Kari's Summit picks included SCHW (down 37%), ALGN (up 48%) and AMT (down 5%), which sounds like a mixed bag.

Jason Snipe had PANW (up 39%), SG (down 5%) and CVS (down 19%), and energy sector (down 5%), which also sounds like a mixed bag.

Weiss' Summit picks were MRNA (down 18%) and GXO (up 16%) and his sector was "profitable health care" (down 5.5%).

Jim to Fed: Stop

At the top of Friday's (3/31) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal, using a curious choice of words, stated, "What I've really gotta respect is that the Fed just doesn't seem to get it."

"They've got inflation going in the direction that they want it," Jim explained.

Later on, Jim said of the Fed, "If they stop right now, they'll have done an amazing job." Jim added, "I mean, the Fed, if you're listening to me, What. More. Do. You. Want. ... Stop."

"It's likely that they will overtighten," said Jason Snipe.

Steve Weiss, who was broadcasting from his living room, which brought back memories of just a couple years ago when humans avoided each other, quietly said we're in a "quiet period for companies" and the market continues to be "consistent" in finding the "sliver of good news" as a reason to go higher.

Kari Firestone said, "What we've seen though is the effect of all of the interest rates that we've had are behind us." Kari said "Markets start to appreciate risk when they see that interest rates may have peaked or are about to peak."

Weiss addressed that a bit later, complaining that bulls "focus on the end of rates as a single moment in time, but yet when they're buying stocks, they point to the future. There's an inconsistency in that analysis."

Josh offended by Judge saying Josh ‘bailed’ on a winning trade

On Thursday's (3/30) Halftime Report, Stephanie Link said it's good that the bank situation has "calmed down," but she's "not sure we're done."

Link said SCHW is a "bargain" and she'll "continue" to buy.

Referring to a recently publicized trade, Judge then told Josh Brown that Brown "bailed" on SCHW shortly after buying it during the bank stress this month.

"I didn't 'bail.' I took a profit," Brown said. "I bought it in the 40s and sold at almost 60 3 days later. So, so let's-"

"Bail doesn't have a negative connotation to it. I'm just saying, you, you owned it-" Judge insisted.

"It does. It does," Brown insisted.

"... for about, you know, a week, and you made, and you made a profit, and you left," Judge continued.

"Yeah. 'Bail's' not great though," Brown said.

Brown went on to say the "new issue" for SCHW equity is that just "an hour ago," Brown "literally" in 30 seconds moved money from a Bank of America account to the Public app.

"It took 30 seconds to buy Treasury bills," going from 0% in his B of A account to 4.89% in a 6-month T-bill. Brown said Public is like Robinhood "but nontoxic."

Judge may have laughed, but someone’s note got a few minutes of national-TV publicity

Judge on Thursday's (3/30) Halftime Report said with a chuckle that Laura Martin is suggesting that AAPL could boost its shares 15-25% by buying DIS.

Jim Lebenthal said this kind of AAPL speculation is a "parlor game," but he doesn't think AAPL will buy anything; the "last big purchase" it made was Beats by Dr. Dre (a point made by at least one person on the 5 p.m. Fast Money), though Jim allowed that AAPL and DIS could be "stronger together."

Bill Baruch owns AAPL and DIS and said "if anybody's acquiring something, it's Disney is gonna acquire something else" and that "Iger's gonna make a splash somewhere."

Josh Brown said it's "unimaginable" to him that AAPL would buy DIS and take on theme parks and cruise lines, and he doesn't understand the "provenance" of Martin's idea.

Judge calls Jim ‘Mr. Winner,’ so far, of the Stock Summit

Marking the (near) end of the quarter, Judge on Thursday's (3/30) Halftime Report brought up panelists' Stock Summit (snicker) picks, starting with reverse-split king GE. Stephanie Link, who's the only panelist who has cared about this stock for at least the last 5 years and constantly says it's turning the corner, said "it's a story that's getting more simple." Judge noted another Link pick, AVGO, is up 12%.

Judge called Jim Lebenthal "Mr. Winner" in the Summit series so far, with his picks of BA up 9%, CLF up 11% and PARA up 27% and his sector choice of industrials up 2%.

"Green across the board for your 3 stocks and your sector," Judge told Jim.

"Look, it's early in the year," Jim modestly said. Jim said those picks were about "playing for the win" and that those picks are based on no recession; otherwise they won't work.

Judge ladled on the compliments, telling Jim, "You've had to really be a stock-picker's stock-picker to have that kind of performance 3 months in." (Actually anyone in TSLA surely outdid it, but whatever.)

"Thank you, I'll take the compliment," Jim said, adding that the stocks actually were up "massively more than this a month ago."

Judge's Summit chart indicated Josh Brown is coming up on the short end, with CB and NEE down and ULTA up. Brown said there's "nothing thematic" about those picks and said he's happy with them and that "in the fullness of time," each will be OK.

‘Probably the last competent government agency there is’

On Thursday's (3/30) Halftime Report, Josh Brown said sentiment hasn't really improved but that this is the "3rd month of QQQ outperformance in a row."

Josh said it's "refreshing" to see how the FDIC handled this month's bank scares. "The FDIC is probably the last competent government agency there is," Brown said.

But Brown said he "can't picture" S&P 4,400 anytime soon.

Jim Lebenthal insisted there's "strong economic activity."

Jim said automakers need to make more cars, the average age is 12.2 years; "they're falling apart" and you can somehow "see it on the road."

Jim said he had dinner with Lourenco Goncalves on Wednesday night.

"I'm pretty bullish right here," said Bill Baruch.

‘A little self-incrimination’ (over not buying retail stocks)

Stephanie Link was asked on Thursday's (3/30) Halftime Report to take up the WMT vs. TGT debate, one of CNBC's longest-running (and most uninteresting) stock comparisons. Link prefers TGT on valuation but said WMT has an upcoming "catalyst" in the form of Analyst Day.

Judge asked Jim Lebenthal about WMT. Jim said he's been saying forever that he's "looking in retail" but hasn't "pulled the trigger" and sometimes feels "a little self-incrimination" about that. Jim said WMT would be "exactly" the stock he looks for if he were to get into a "recessionary mindset" (snicker).

Josh Brown said he doesn't think WMT "loves a recession," that maybe it merely "goes down less than other stocks," and anyone concerned about recession should buy the GLD.

On a certain tech giant, Stephanie said "Hopefully they don't spend as much on meta" but "now we're not even talking about the metaverse really that much with META."

Bill Baruch said he bought PXD, in part because of a "China impulse," and he thinks that Permian production will pick up. Jim said of the SPR, "They're eventually gonna have to refill that" and he thinks "they're trying to work that around the debt ceiling."

Mike Mayo on Closing Bell kept asking Judge whether Judge pays for car and/or home and/or life insurance. Judge said "it's required in the state," but "I thought I was supposed to be asking you the questions."

Mayo said "Short term, the bank crisis issues, which had everyone unnerved, seems (sic meant 'seem') like it's probably over."

Judge buries the lede

Judge on Wednesday's (3/29) Halftime Report said Jim Cramer made a "very provocative and interesting thought in his investing club letter" in which Jim apparently says a Fed pause "could ignite a market rally like we haven't seen in decades."

Jason Snipe said that's "possible" but he's not so sure about "cuts towards the end of the year" and that there are possible "land mines."

Joe Terranova said there's a "very odd calm" in the market and he couldn't even explain the VIX and that the behavior in the market is "pretty odd" and if you're near-term bearish, "You have to feel uncomfortable."

Judge says Jenny believed that the ’23 playbook was the ’22 playbook (and Judge actually claims with a straight face that energy could still turn out to be the top trade of the year)

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (3/29) Halftime Report said there was "nothing fundamentally" driving oil higher, nothing more than a "reflex reaction."

Joe said MPC is in the "sweet spot" that should do well if crude keeps "vacillating" from 65-85. (Honestly, if someone projected that crude would vacillate between $25 and $225, that would get them promoted at Morgan Stanley and a host of TV appearances.)

Judge pointed out Jason Snipe picked energy for the Stock Summit. Jason said he thinks the "supply/demand mismatch still exists."

Judge noted Jenny Harrington's holdings in energy and told Jenny she was "offsides on the trade" thinking that "the '22 playbook was the '23 playbook." Judge added, "And maybe it turns out to be (snicker); it's still young obviously."

"To be fair, I never thought that the '21 and '22 playbook was also '23 ... there was no way we were going to have that kind of repeat," Jenny insisted, explaining, using the example of PDX, that she doesn't expect the same kind of capital appreciation but hopes for 8-10% based on the dividend.

Jenny bought more MDT and said she read UBS' 88-page double-downgrade report and thinks "they're missing the forest through the trees" and that it's a "great company with a great product pipeline."

Jenny bought SCHW, "exactly what I want to own right now," noting it got "slaughtered" recently while it's bringing in "hugely profitable" new assets. "That's a safer trade," Jenny said.

Jason Snipe said he sold IYT but bought FDX because it has "new leadership" and a "really strong investor day" and has had "less margin contraction."

Joe said LULU was "coming off the bottom" because its results were better than feared.

Kristina Partsinevelos actually said there was something "newsworthy" from INTC's Investor Day. Jenny kind of made excuses for the "excellent CEO" Pat Gelsinger, but Steve Weiss complained that Gelsinger has "overpromised and underdelivered consistently since he was there."

Joe says cash on the sideline is a big deal; Weiss says it isn’t

Leading off on Wednesday's (3/29) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova again mentioned his "conversation" with Larry Altman (on Monday he said they were just texting) and said there's "further upside potential in the near term for the market heading into Friday's PCE inflation figure."

Joe said "the most risky positioning" now is actually "sitting in so much cash," which caught the ear of Steve Weiss.

Weiss stated, with a bit of explanation, "I don't think you should count on that money coming back into the market anytime soon having just exited the market."

"Totally disagree," Joe said. "Statistically you're at 5.1 trillion dollars. Last year everyone spoke about being in cash, and you did a great job, you did a great job in '22-"

"Last year you're running just under 5 trillion. Look at the numbers. 4.6 to 5 trillion last year was what you were running in your cash on the sidelines," Weiss countered.

"That's a big move, Steve. 4.6 to 5.1 trillion is a big move," Joe insisted.

"No, that was the range last year. You've gone up recently a hundred and 17 billion-" Weiss said.

"But you're at the top- you're at the top of the range right now," Joe continued.

"Right. But incrementally it's not enough to change it (unintelligible)-" Weiss added.

"I think it's indicative of the entire overall sentiment, myself included," Joe said, adding "everyone on this desk right now does not trust- does not trust the move in the market right now ... All I'm telling you is my gut."

"My point is that the headline, 'So much cash in the head- on, in the market,' was the headline all of last year, So much cash on the sideline," Weiss said.

Judge cut in, "Who cares what happened last year at this point," asking Weiss whether there wouldn't be a "forceful rally" when the "tide turns."

"Without a doubt, without a doubt," Weiss said, still predicting we'll see the impact of Fed tightening before a flood of cash back into stocks.

Judge questioned if the market isn't seeing "pause" ahead of "tightening" and wondered, "Why do you think these stocks are running?"

Weiss insisted "The Fed pause doesn't matter" and that the "market's pricing in" the 50% chance of no hike at the next meeting.

Judge said if the market was expecting more hikes, tech stocks wouldn't be going higher. Weiss said they could, because "thy're the new defensive sector."

Jenny strongly implies that buying Big Tech is the ‘lazy trade’

Jason Snipe on Wednesday's (3/29) Halftime Report said a lot of people were "offsides" (a term used frequently on Wednesday's program) at the start of the year and now the Nasdaq 100 multiple has surged from 20 to 24.

Jenny Harrington said she doesn't consider tech a "safety trade" and you can have a "really good growth strategy" without owning a bunch of Big Tech names.

For whatever reason, Jenny said she did a "deep dive" on F and said it earned "a dollar-80-ish this year," but what about next year; "analysts expect a dollar-fifty; the truth is I have no idea. ... and that's the challenge with a lot of these companies."

Judge said, "You're helping me make the point."

"To some degree I am," Jenny conceded, before stating, "There's still so much ambiguity in the earnings."

"Not nearly as much in an Apple as there is a Ford," Judge said.

Jenny said she added to Easterly Properties a day earlier, which she said has "incredibly reliable" growth.

Jenny said she'd "almost say" that Big Tech is "like the lazy trade."

Judge back in form, is hectoring Jim again about endless bullish-days-ahead call

Tuesday's (3/28) Halftime Report once again pitted Judge and Jim Lebenthal at Post 9.

As Judge expressed renewed skepticism about Jim's constant upbeat economic outlook, Jim basically suggested that if you don't see a recession ahead, then "you'd rather be in those cyclical sectors."

Judge said it sounds like Jim is "not moved" by recent banking events. "I have moved," Jim said, before Judge complained, "I don't think you're being clear."

Jim conceded the odds of recession "have gone up" and said the Fed made the "wrong move" by hiking last week. But he's still in the "greater than 50%" camp that there isn't a recession.

A little later, continuing the thread, Judge told Jim that Jim's "bullish scenario has suffered a slow leak," and, "The guy who sells Flex Seal isn't running over here to save the day anytime soon," admittedly one of Judge's best lines in recent memory.

Judge even said the Flex Seal guy's name is Phil Swift who "makes the boat stick to a, you know, a pencil." (That's called advertising success, even if Judge got the specifics wrong.)

Jim said while it may be typical to get a recession in this kind of environment, he thinks this is an "ahistorical" time.

Jim said he's hearing people talk about a "short, shallow" recession, not "sharp, hard, enduring." Liz Young said earnings would still "trough" within that "short and shallow" recession.

Liz said she agrees with Jeffrey Gundlach that the recession is a few months away, "maybe sooner." Liz would "rather just get it over with in April ... and go on with our lives later in the year."

Liz suggested tech might be the place to be for a recession-driven slowdown rather than the rate-driven pullback of last year.

Josh Brown said the bank tightening of lending standards in the last couple weeks "is no joke." Josh said eventually there's going to be an "orgy" of AI stocks, but for now, NVDA's one of the few places to go, which is why everyone appears to be going there.

Speaking of advertising, ‘This breakfast is delicious like it is every flight!’ says Robert Herjavec on his private jet (a/k/a everyone looks forward to meals on airplanes)

Judge on Tuesday's (3/28) Halftime Report asked Josh Brown if Berkshire's "continued buy" of OXY sets a "broader floor" under energy.

Josh said he doesn't think Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger "sit around making oil and natural gas price forecasts" but that they have a "comfort level" with OXY. Judge said Berkshire has a "monster stake" now in OXY.

Liz Young said there's a "decent floor" under energy in part because the government may be refilling the SPR.

Liz said at the top of the show that if you got into the Q's at the end of the year or even mid-October, "I think this is an OK time to start fading it." The only thing about that advice is that stocks don't care what someone's cost basis is; it's not going to, for example, continue going up for people who bought in March and at the same time not go up for people who bought in December.

Liz concluded, if you're "overweight" tech, "take some gains."

Josh Brown said you don't necessarily need to buy tech here but if you're long, it's fine to "let them run."

Josh pointed out how, in the first 3 months of the year, the chart of sector performance this year is "literally the reverse" of this time last year. Josh also said the median P.E. for the XLK was "much more expensive" in January 2022 than it is now.

Judge said Bank of America, which evidently foresees a higher price for PARA, thinks the company will execute on its streaming plan, or if not, will be sold at a "significant premium." PARA long Jim Lebenthal said it's been adding subscribers "hand over fist" and of course it'll successfully make the "pivot" to streaming. But Jim said he doubts that Shari Redstone is going to sell.

Josh questioned if Jim has concerns about PARA relying so much on "1 creator" (Taylor Sheridan) and said it seems "precarious" to be relying on 1 creator. Jim mentioned "Top Gun: Maverick," which wasn't created by Taylor Sheridan, on Paramount+ driving subscribers.

Larry Altman: Market might be able to ‘catch its breath’

This page for a couple weeks has been trumpeting Larry Altman's sensational market-bottom assessment of 8+ years ago; Joe Terranova went one better, revealing on Monday's (3/27) Halftime Report that he actually communicated with Larry that morning.

Joe said he and Larry had a "text exchange" in which Joe suggested, if someone was bearish last week, it kind of feels like "you're out of bullets here" or out of "negative news" that can drop stocks.

Joe said that Larry said, "'You know what, maybe the market can catch its breath.' And I think that's exactly what we're setting up for."

Joe told Judge that what was "really odd on Friday" was that "there was no Friday selling."

Judge (shown above during Santoli's Midday Word) said he's seen "commentary" that inferred that Jay Powell made "as dovish a hike as you could've possibly gotten." Joe said he thinks the Fed will have to "pause" and the "economic contraction is ahead."

Joe said, "Unfortunately, Main Street is about to feel what Wall Street has felt for the last year."

OK, that's where we'll have to disagree. What pain is coming to Main Street? Restaurants are going to start laying off people? Hospitals? Casinos? Airlines? Grocery stores?

Bryn evidently talked herself out of MTB

Monday's (3/27) Halftime marked the return of Judge, who opened by telling Bryn Talkington (who, like other members of Monday's Investment Committee, was given a nice introductory photo-op from CNBC's savvy camera crew), "I sort of frame this as, the good and the bad" (that's a handy way of doing it, as opposed to, say, "the adequate and the mediocre"), referring to "bank stress relief" (good) and "the yield curve" (bad).

Bryn said the good is also that tech stocks are going up, but there's other bad in that the credit crunch "has not even remotely manifested itself into public equities," thus she predicts "cracks in the economy."

"The market is always predisposed to going higher," said Steve Weiss, who said as he always does that the damage to the economy "really hasn't come yet." (10 years from now, he'll still be warning about the 2022 rate hikes.)

Weiss blamed "bad actors in the banking industry" for the "bank crisis" that he clarified to mean "poor risk management" that the market is dealing with right now.

Joe Terranova said he bought JPM on Friday's close. He said it's the "most immune" to current bank stress.

Weiss said he bought more KEY at the end of last week. He said he added to BAC and GS; "you're getting these on sale," and he even made them his Final Trade. Weiss insisted "I'm still negative overall" but that some stocks have "gone through their bear market."

Weiss said those bank holdings are not "full positions" because of his outlook on the market.

Bryn Talkington seemed to make the case for MTB in notable detail but said she hasn't bought yet because it's not clear how much lending it'll be doing, though there's "probably not that much downside."

Hiking rates from here is like a band coming out for more songs after the 3rd encore at 1:45 a.m.

Judge on Monday's (3/27) Halftime Report said Jeremy Siegel earlier on CNBC said he's not optimistic until the Fed "gets it."

Bryn Talkington suggested NVDA as one of the "thoroughbreds of the stock market" but it needs "to go back in the stable and have some rest," because she doesn't think the gains are "sustainable."

Judge said Jan Hatzius has "literally just upped his probability for a recession in the next 12 months back up to 35 from 25."

Bryn said she'd buy MSFT over AMZN "all day long."

Joe Terranova said you can buy CAT with a stop at "209 and a half." Weiss said he wouldn't buy CAT "under any circumstance," and he thinks he can get DE "20% lower."

Joe affirmed he bought the IBB on Friday at the close. Joe said he wanted to "credit a little bit, Adam Parker on this."

Joe advised a Grade My Trade viewer to shift from GOLD to the GLD.

Jeffrey Gundlach on Closing Bell Monday said he thinks "the chances are better than 50/50 that we're done with the rate hikes." He predicted a recession within months but said what matters is the severity.

Gorrrrrrrrrjus panelist Liz Young, who stunned in white at Post 9, said on Closing Bell that "I do think there's a good chance they're done hiking."

March 13 low stands

As is often — OK, at least occasionally — the case around here, something appears on this page, and then CNBC's Halftime Report kinda scrambles to catch up.

Such was the case Friday (3/24), when Joe Terranova asked Fundstrat's Mark Newton, "What are the months of the calendar year (sic last 4 words redundant) in which the market generally tends to bottom on a historical perspective. Is it October. Is it March."

"Well it is the fall, and typically it bottoms during times of fear, it can be anywhere from, from August through October," Newton replied.

Um, close. It just so happens that this page, virtually alone in financial media for 8+ years, has been trumpeting the October 2014 Halftime Report assessment of this subject by Larry Altman, who said markets "usually bottom around the first week and a half, 2 weeks in October, or the first week or 2 weeks in March."

Notice he said "usually," and that Joe on Friday correctly used the term "generally." There are some years without any kind of bottoming in October or March.

In too many years, however, we've seen Altman's statement proved remarkably accurate.

This March, stocks actually have been sideways. Yet this month includes historic bank failures.

You can guess about which day the bottom occurred.

It's kind of like a green on a golf course in which the putts generally break left. Not every putt, but most.

EBAR.

Rob Sechan on Friday's (3/24) Halftime Report said he was "frankly shocked" at how well the market was doing.

Joe Terranova said the "hardest thing to do" is predict the next 10% move in the market.

Steve Weiss, as he always says, claimed it's "ridiculous" to be bullish because you think the Fed will cut rates. Weiss then went on to pick the bear side of whatever the Fed is doing at a given time (which basically means, if they're hiking rates, you can either argue the economy's strong or getting slower, and if they're cutting, you can either argue rates are getting better or the economy actually stinks. Weiss argued the latter of the 2nd scenario.).

"To initiate new positions now is a mistake," Weiss asserted.

Weiss got disconnected around the 10-minute mark and didn't hear guest host Melissa Lee say "Steve!"

"Just wait. Don't be a hero. Keep your money in cash," Weiss advised.

Weiss stumbled to come up with a new abbreviation, EBAR, which he said is "Earnings Before Analysts are Real." Mel called that "The worst acronym I've ever heard."

Fundstrat's Mark Newton said sentiment is "very very negative" right now, which is actually a positive sign for stocks.

Rob Sechan said energy isn't his favorite sector now but it was last year.

What did they do in Orange County in 1994?

Panelists on Thursday's (3/23) Halftime Report had every reason to think there was a big rally going on. (Even though, within an hour or two, that rally actually had gone negative.)

"I think the reason that we're rallying is because, it appears, that we're in the 9th inning of this rate cycle," said Stephanie Link, adding that Jay Powell "walked back, kind of" comments made a month ago on more rate hikes.

Josh Brown observed, "There are no Treasurys currently yielding more than 5%."

"It definitely seems like we're at the end of the cycle," said Bryn Talkington. But Bryn said she's "skeptical" as the S&P nears 4,100 and she'd actually be "fading" new positions because "everyone's talking about AI at all times" and it's getting "frothy" in the short term.

Also, "This deposit issue with the banks is not solved," Bryn said.

Jason Snipe said he still likes a lot of energy names and thinks that they're worth adding to in the pullback.

Karen Finerman on the 5 p.m. Fast Money said "I don't feel like the storm is over at all" for regional banks. Karen cited a Twitter question (uh oh) about should regional banks "proactively" decrease their dividends to shore up their balance sheets, "even if they don't need to." Karen said if all of them did it, they could "hide, sort of, behind it."

Bryn’s right — everyone is talking about AI, pretty much all the time

On Thursday's (3/23) Halftime Report, Josh Brown pointed out the "top 3 performers in the S&P 500 this year" are NVDA (88%), META (72%) and TSLA (60%).

Bryn Talkington said she's "not surprised" SQ is down on the Hindenburg assessment because these are "big allegations."

Josh said he has no position in SQ but is "just thankful that people are out there paying attention to some of the stuff that's been masquerading as capitalism."

Noting COIN's drop, Bryn said we need a "regulatory framework" in which the "rules don't change" when we get a new SEC chairman.

Stephanie Link said she was in COIN for a "minute" (clarified to "3 weeks") and that it trades with crypto and is a "volatile name."

omg, Cambridge Analytica

Steve Liesman on Thursday's (3/23) Halftime Report said he sees about a "50/50 split" between odds on the Fed doing nothing and raising a quarter at the next meeting.

However, in June, Steve noted with a chart, it's actually 24% for a cut, 50% for no change and 26% for a hike.

Steve also pointed out how bank credit is tightening on its own.

Josh Brown noted homebuilders have been leading and said it's "very odd" for this group to be leading and asked Liesman what it signals. Steve said it's a "great question" and nobody would've had homebuilders on their "bingo card" as leader in this type of environment but suggested "the best explanation" is the "inexorability of the housing demand that's out there."

Steve noted help-wanted signs and restaurants with limited hours and stated, "We just don't have the people to fill the jobs."

Jason Snipe said he likes "specific financials" such as insurance and bigger banks, as well as semis.

Bryn Talkington added RYE, which she prefers over XLE, which she said is "about 50% Chevron and Exxon." She also added BHP, DVN and FANG. Bryn thinks "the age of cheap energy is over."

Josh Brown said the TikTok "nightmare scenario" is a "close election" in a state like Florida or Arizona in which China can be "influential enough" on TikTok.

But Brown said "there's enough bipartisan energy that this thing will have to be sold to a U.S. company." Brown said ORCL, which he's long, is the company that "wins no matter what."

Liz reinvents Final Trade rules; not a bad idea after Tom’s bust

On Wednesday's (3/22) Halftime Report, Tom Lee said the Fed meeting will reflect "their desire for financial conditions to not get worse" — which Lee thought could trigger a rally later Wednesday regardless of what the Fed does with rate hikes.

Oops. (This review was posted after market hours on Wednesday.) (Actually, this page expected a rally also, but we did at least get the 25-point hike correct.)

Lee asserted, "I think that the inflation story has kinda legged lower" and "inflation psychology has broken."

Liz Young, who had cautioned not to try trading stocks Wednesday afternoon after a Fed announcement, told guest host Frank Holland at the end of the show that her Final Trade is to not make a trade Wednesday. "I've never heard that before," said Steve Weiss.

The expert (and we mean that) CNBC camera crew on Wednesday got great, relaxed shots of the day's Investment Committee at the opening of the show at Post 9 (and Liz Young's realization after about a half-second that the camera was on her was kinda cute).

Joe brings up Orange County 1994 for about the 5th time in the last couple weeks

Early on Wednesday's (3/22) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss again said it's "asinine," one of his favorite words, to think the Fed will start cutting in 6 months.

Weiss actually said he doesn't believe that the health of banks is an "issue" right now. Weiss said he expects a 25-point hike because otherwise, "The message that they send is that, 'Hey maybe these banks are in trouble.'"

Weiss said the Fed has to focus on inflation and called inflation "the most insidious factor that can affect the economy."

It's interesting he used the term "affect." Because some would argue that inflation is an effect of economic strain or stress.

Joe Terranova offered that stress in the mortgage-backed security market is "extremely intense."

CNBC's Fed (and Grateful Dead Fare Thee Well) ace Steve Liesman addressed that comment, sorta implying it might not be as "intense" as Joe indicated, telling Joe, "The Fed is offering you a one-year loan at par. Not you. Offering banks a 1-year loan at par for your mortgage-backed securities."

As for Weiss' point about a possible message that banks are in trouble, Liesman seemed to think that wouldn't affect a Fed move, stating if there's a fire in the house, you call the fire trucks, regardless of what it says about what's going on in the house.

Weiss also said "The Fed doesn't care about the equity market" for about (literally) the 10th time this year. (Maybe he'll convince himself to actually believe it.)

Weiss also said the market multiple is "sort of ridiculous" for about the 10th time this year.

Weiss doubts bank CEO would ‘lie’ on CNBC

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (3/22) Halftime Report said he bought more gold, and he mentioned "single largest deflationary shock" for about the 4th time in the last couple weeks.

Joe said $2,000 gold is "sustainable over the coming months." (And if someone tried telling Peter "$5,000" Schiff 10 years ago that gold in 2023 might be able to hold $2,000, you'd get an earful about how the central banks are ruining fiat currency.)

Steve Weiss said he bought KEY; he noted the CEO being on CNBC and said "I don't think he'd lie." Weiss said GS and BAC reached "compelling levels" to buy.

Liz Young said you can be "choosy" and own some financials, but "I just wouldn't be telling people to buy into volatility. I would still wait this out."

Weiss said MRNA is raising the price of its vaccine after the pandemic is over, "I really don't see anything wrong with that." Weiss said he's not concerned about political complaints about drug prices; he's been hearing those complaints for "30 years." (For more than a year, he's also been stating how people "who aren't on CNBC" are being hurt the most by inflation, but if it's one of his stocks, evidently, no biggie. #LettheFedfixit)

Joe said LULU is "trading at a significant historical discount." Weiss said he doesn't own it because it's "expensive." Guess that's what makes a trade.

In Grade My Trade, Joe Terranova offered his own report card, saying he owned DDOG at 102 and sold at 82 and was "glad that I did." Guest host Frank Holland said "Marcus" bought DVN at 54, but the screen said it was "Bill." Weiss said it's been an "F" for a trade, but for the longer term, it's a "good entry point."

Jim ‘lost about 10%’ on FRC in his personal account

With Judge away and a Fed decision looming, the Halftime Report is basically biding time; the most significant thing about Tuesday's (3/21) episode was guest host Mel's chic gray top.

Jim Lebenthal said he expects a 25-basis-point hike, though he thinks the Fed should "pause."

"The banking system is in peril right now. This is just not the time to raise rates," Jim said, stating there's a "reasonable chance" that a 25-point hike will be taken back in "2 to 3 months."

Josh Brown though said he thinks the Fed actually will pause, and should pause.

Addressing his announced buy of FRC a week ago, which is a candidate for Bust of the Year for Jim and also Kari Firestone (see below), Jim said Tuesday he unloaded FRC on Friday and "lost about 10%" and noted it's "much lower than that now." (Translation: Made a smart sale.) Jim said he had bought FRC "personally" but bought KRE for clients; he's "not backing off" that KRE trade.

Josh Brown happily recounted his own buy of SCHW this month on the banking fallout; Stephanie Link is in that stock now.

Link said she's "not gonna buy more" META, but she does like the stock. Jim said he's a big "disbeliever" in social networks; "I literally hate them," calling them a "venue for people to behave poorly," but he thinks META is going higher because it's "incredibly cheap" and estimates are rising. Josh Brown said the "biggest catalyst" for META is the crackdown on TikTok.

"I'm not on Facebook," said Melissa Lee.

Josh Brown said NVDA has never been cheap and said it's even more expensive now than usual and even mentioned "cure cancer" in the conversation.

Mel got a bit theatrical when Josh suggested, "Let's get Jim in on this" and talked over Jim's initial thoughts on NVDA.

Bill Baruch said the NKE put/call ratio is just "a shade under 1.0."

Kari, Jim announcing FRC buys on March 14 is early front-runner for Bust of the Year

Stocks actually enjoyed a rather robust day on Monday (3/20).

Viewers probably hardly noticed as the Halftime Report turned into an elongated CNBC News Update on FRC.

Guest host Frank Holland turned immediately to Sarat Sethi for an opinion on the stock, which Sarat owns. Sarat called the situation "fluid." He said he's got "much smaller" positions now and "we're not gonna add to it." (This writer was long FRC on Monday morning but has no position as of Monday afternoon.)

Another FRC long, Kari Firestone, said her shop has a "very, very small position" in FRC. "We are in fact selling some of it today" because of the "fear factor" that's the "major driver," Kari explained, adding, "Clients loved the bank, and still they took their money."

Kari's and Sarat's comments Monday were in stark contrast to what Kari said just 6 days earlier, which was that "This bank is worth a whole lot more than what it was trading for, you know, between 19 to 30 yesterday."

After Kari had finished on Monday talking at length about FRC, Frank asked her to opine on the stock being halted. Kari suggested maybe FRC has "agreed to sell equity," but "I'm looking straight at the camera," so she didn't know any details.

Later in the show, Joe Terranova told Frank that "it's very difficult to arrest a (sic meant 'an') asset that's in distress," especially "in the middle of a trading session."

This just in — FRC halted

As stark as the news was Monday (3/20) for FRC, another bank in the news, NYCB, apparently was making Jenny Harrington giddy enough to call in on a day she wasn't on the show.

Jenny told guest host Frank Holland she did a call with clients last week in which she said she was "pretty sure" she'd have to sell the name, only to realize before going to bed last night that "the game has changed for New York Community Bank."

Jenny said it's been a "fascinating thing" to watch NYCB "juxtaposed" against FRC.

And in this market, "One bank's loss is going to be another bank's gain," Jenny explained.

Sarat Sethi had argued earlier that the banking industry needs smaller banks to compete and succeed, and if they don't, "you're gonna end up with 4 or 5 banks," and they'll be "completely regulated like utilities." Moments later, Jenny had a different take.

"I'm not sure that's not the way to go," Jenny said, "and that really started 29 years ago."

Joe Terranova said he's "looking towards" which banks can take advantage of some of these situations by scooping up assets for "pennies on the dollar."

Jason Snipe cautioned that aside from regional banks' headline concerns, "loan demand is slowing."

Jason called AMZN's new round of layoffs a "little blip." Frank clarified that the amount of layoffs is a "fraction" of the 700,000+ people hired by AMZN during the pandemic.

Joe reaffirmed he sees a Fed "pause" after this week's meeting. Joe said technology is still in a recession that's lasted 6 months.

Bob Pisani said "Cathie Woods (sic last name, twice)."

Joe: Whatever happens next week, after Wednesday, Fed is ‘done’

Joe Terranova on Friday's (3/17) Halftime Report bluntly stated he doesn't know if the Fed will do 25 points on Wednesday or not, but in either case, "After Wednesday, in my view, they're done."

This page agrees and will further say they're going to do 25 and then tell us how they're going to see how everything plays out before the next hike (as Jeremy Siegel basically predicted).

Rob Sechan said bank troubles put the Fed "in a Catch-22." Rob said this is a "really tough environment" and like Steve Weiss, he's playing a "waiting game" to re-engage with the stock market.

Weiss said he doesn't know what the market would do if the Fed did a "pause" next week. "It matters for a day or two," Weiss shrugged.

Rob said "valuations are exceedingly high" in tech.

Brenda Vingiello asserted it's a "stock-picker's market" and that it "doesn't hurt" to own some bonds.

Weiss: ‘I don’t know what these guys at Fundstrat drink’

On Friday's (3/17) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss strongly declared the March bottom isn't in.

Guest host Frank Holland had said Mark Newton is saying the lows for "the March decline" were made Monday and that Newton sees "4,025" in the next couple weeks.

"I don't know what these guys at Fundstrat drink. What do they do. What planet are they living on," Weiss scoffed.

Frank said 4,025 is "not that far away." But Weiss said the "primary call" of Newton is that the bottom's in; "No it hasn't been put in."

"The bottom's not in," Weiss reiterated, and saying of anyone who makes that call, "I think you're drinking Kool-aid."

Joe: ‘Nobody’s making money this year’

Joe Terranova on Friday's (3/17) Halftime Report said the market hasn't been able to "wash away this disinflationary element" started by SIVB.

Joe pointed out the prevailing theory entering the year regarding energy stocks and tech stocks and defensives, etc. "The reality is, nobody's making money this year," Joe asserted, stating the result is "less liquidity in the market."

Steve Weiss drew a curious analogy between what we can know for sure about the market and knowing the color of Frank Holland's suit.

Weiss said we know Frank's suit is blue, but what's debatable is whether it's "tight around the middle."

"We can't debate the market's going down," Weiss continued, which seems a strange thing to call undebatable. Weiss called the move into tech a "temporary move."

"Just go to cash," Weiss advised, saying this is a time to "preserve capital."

But Joe urged, "Remember your reinvestment risk," citing anyone who moved into cash rather than into the 2-year Treasury recently. Joe said the trouble with Weiss' strategy for most people is the "tremendous difficulty of timing back into the market."

Weiss said "consistently," his Final Trade has been 2-year Treasurys. Weiss thinks he has "6 to 9 months" to get back into stocks.

Brenda quickly making up for 3 years of not being on the show in person

Bob Pisani on Friday's (3/17) Halftime Report mentioned some S&P reclassifications involving TGT, DG and DLTR moving from discretionary to staples and V, MA and PYPL moving from technology into financials.

Joe Terranova said it's a "little bit of a transformation for the financial sector." Rob Sechan said "Thank God" for this S&P move so he doesn't have to explain to clients why he's "overweight" in tech.

Meanwhile, Steve Weiss said NVDA has a "ridiculous" multiple and that analysts are only raising price targets because the stock reached the previous price target. Rob Sechan said he wouldn't own NVDA because, as Weiss said, "it's capital-intensive."

Guest host Frank Holland asked Brenda Vingiello to do a Grade My Trade on CB for someone named Steve. Weiss pretended he was the Steve. Moments later, Frank asked Weiss to grade someone named Dave's MRNA trade without the "vaudeville act." Weiss said MRNA is "fantastic" for the long term but "short term, it's volatile." (This writer is long MRNA.)

Joe's Final Trade was long gold.

Lucky 13s?

Earlier this week (see below), this page noted the sensational stock market observation made by Larry Altman on the Halftime Report in October 2014.

The observation was that markets "usually bottom around the first week and a half, 2 weeks in October, or the first week or 2 weeks in March."

Last Oct. 13, the S&P 500 sank to 3,491.58 intraday, which proved the short-term bottom.

This past week, this page (and everyone else) was sensing disaster from a banking shock, that last week's slide was just the beginning.

Lo and behold, the low of March 13 — 3,808.86 — appears, as of Thursday night, to be holding, and this week might even close up.

If so, the market is 2-for-2 in its most recent trips through March and October.

For all we know, sure, there could be more bank panic, stocks could break 3,808.86 next week or the week after, and maybe Monday was just the beginning.

As of now, it actually looks like the "big whoosh down."

We’ll take a guess: Fed hikes 25 next week, says that might be it, markets rally

On Thursday's (3/16) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal conceded that FRC is a "speculative stock" and that any owners should be prepared that "this could go to zero." (This writer is long FRC.)

Jim said the bank can cover "more than 2/3 of deposit outflows," which Jim thinks is "far more than they would see." But Jim conceded a "run on the bank" could happen.

Jim told Judge he doesn't "regret" buying it previously higher (it was 24 Thursday during the show when they talked about it, and surged about $10 higher within a couple hours) but he's "vexxed" by sentiment, which is "whipsawing all around."

Late in the show, David Faber reported that big banks are preparing to make a "large deposit" in the "20 billion range" into FRC. The stock began to gain during Faber's report and ultimately reached the low 30s, which made for great flips for anyone buying early Thursday morning.

Judge pointed out that David's report was "moving the stock." Faber noted this hadn't happened yet, though it was announced a couple hours later. Jim Lebenthal suggested, "ad-libbing," that the banks are building a "firewall" for the industry.

"If this happens and it doesn't work, that's not a good sign," David said. Jim said if that $20 billion deposit from the big banks is uninsured, it's a "helluva firewall."

Judge made a fantastic point that hasn't been made enough, noting that the emergency measures so far haven't involved Congress yet (thank God) and that it'll take "congressional approval" to deal with things such as depositor insurance levels, and that kind of congressional agreement "seems a long way away."

So there's a great benchmark — as long as bank rescues do not require Congress, the government is going to be accommodative.

‘We’re in for a lower interest-rate environment’

Rich Saperstein on Thursday's (3/16) Halftime Report said he's "certainly not" going to turn bullish. He said Big Tech is outperforming right now because of its cash flows in this higher-rate environment.

That wasn't particularly noteworthy. But then Saperstein launched into an analysis of the Federal Reserve.

"They can't abandon the inflation fight," Saperstein said. Rich pointed to the 2-year and stated, "I don't think the Fed is really the big driver here," rather we need to "focus on interest rates."

He said that looking at the "last 3 tightening periods ... at all times, the 2-year Treasury led the Fed higher, and at all times, when the 2-year Treasury broke below Fed funds, that marked the peak of the interest rate cycle. We just saw in the last 30 days the 2-year Treasury drop below the Fed funds rate."

That suggests "we're in for a lower interest-rate environment," Saperstein said.

Judge questioned the impact of one particular Fed meeting decision coming next week. Saperstein said pausing next week could make the market think "we have a systemic banking crisis."

Josh Brown questioned if the markets would find that "negative." Saperstein said it "very much could be." Judge then played a clip of Jeremy Siegel a day earlier on Closing Bell suggesting the same risk as Saperstein indicated. Josh said he's "surprised" that Siegel thinks this "ahistorical" reaction would or could happen and that the Fed would "earn credibility" that it's responding to this situation with a changed approach. Jim Lebenthal said he agrees with Josh. It's a good point, but this page is thinking, as Jeremy Siegel outlined Wednesday, they hike.

Brenda Vingiello suggested it's possible "the end of the interest rate cycle may be as early as next week."

Weiss says SIVB was a ‘unique company’ that got ‘way over its skis’

Josh Brown opened Thursday's (3/16) Halftime Report revealing he sold SCHW, even though "it probably still is a buy," but after the run it's had this week off its 45 print on Monday, "it's OK to take some off the table."

Steve Weiss said that with funding presumably declining for startups in Silicon Valley, the threats to Big Tech business models "has diminished somewhat," perhaps accounting for the strength of that sector.

Judge wondered if Weiss is suddenly questioning his statements of just a day earlier that you'll be able to get MSFT and other stocks cheaper. Weiss said he's not questioning that view and if he's wrong, "I don't care," because "I don't have to own Microsoft." He stuck by his previous call that he can get DE lower than 388. Weiss said he has "zero regrets."

Josh Brown contended that Big Tech is "staple-y" and he's "not really that surprised" that they've become defensive stocks.

Weiss asserted that "the banking system is not in a crisis, OK. The banking system is absolutely fine." Rather, according to Weiss, it was a "unique company" that got "way over its skis."

As far as what the Federal Reserve will or should do, Weiss asserted, "They could (sic meant 'couldn't) care less about the equity markets. ... They care about 1 thing, and that's inflation," and that's the "bigger game."

Josh Brown said "what they do next week has absolutely nothing to do with the Fed fighting inflation" because it will take 6-12 months for a 25-basis-point hike to have any impact on the system. Weiss insisted they'll be "creating easier lending conditions," so a 25-point hike next week will "send the message" that it wants "tighter credit."

Meanwhile, Judge said Susquehanna is saying the bottom's in for semis. Rich Saperstein touted OXY's free cash flow and said it's a "typical Buffett name."

Judge said he got a call "a little while ago" from Mark Fisher, who said everyone had been short bonds and long oil, and now that's been "blown out" and that now there's econ fears and a "buyer's strike" on oil. Judge said Fish thinks oil should be bought at 65 and sold at 85.

Josh Brown said "an entire generation" was "brainwashed" for 10 years about how supposedly there's no money to be made in energy because it doesn't "jibe with the ESG agenda," and that "all changed on a dime last year."

Judge said Brenda Vingiello was "here, um, for the first time in 3 years in person," and we didn't know if he meant first time on the Halftime set, or first time at Post 9.

On Closing Bell, Bryn Talkington asserted that energy is "very oversold, and tech stocks are very overbought."

Weiss: ‘You’re gonna lose money on positions you buy now’

It wasn't until late in Wednesday's (3/15) Halftime Report that Steve Weiss impressively got to the point about what viewers should do, impressive because Judge had merely given him a tiny soundbite amid some other interviews.

Weiss bluntly advised viewers not to buy the dip/plunge this week: "The market's gonna go down, you're gonna lose money on positions you buy now, so get a better opportunity," Weiss asserted.

That seems like the right call, but if markets were that predictable, who knows, maybe we'd all be rich.

Earlier in the show, Weiss said he's "50/50" on what the Fed will do and conceded it could "not hike and still get their message very clearly across." Then Weiss actually said "the risk to the Fed" is that markets "open up again" and "everybody parties on."

"I don't know about that," Judge said, skeptically. "There was a big shock this weekend."

Weiss said the Fed could pause with "very strong messaging" where it insists it's "not done," because "Powell's got enough credibility in the tightening cycle where he can get away with that."

However it happens, "There's no way, in my view, that the market's goin' up," Weiss said.

Judge sounds like he’s in disbelief that Tom Lee didn’t renounce bullishness

On Wednesday's (3/15) Halftime Report, star guest Tom Lee said it's "tough" to be bullish here, "but it doesn't mean that we've broken the economy."

"Well, yet," Judge said, stressing the difference between the "toughness" of being bullish and "just flat-out wrong." Judge demanded to know if it's "wrong" to be bullish on Wednesday.

"I think it's wrong to be bullish short-term," Lee said.

Lee, who had one of those funky video glows around him that looked kind of funny, said the recession risk is "much greater," but we might have "rolling recessions" and, without high leverage in households and companies, "the recession dynamic is gonna play out differently."

Lee said we have to figure out whether the yield curve is uninverting because "inflation broke" or "because the economy broke." Judge seemed to sigh that "the latter" would get more votes. Lee said there's a "possibility" that "we don't have a landing," though the odds have "really shrunk."

Later, Judge said "the word of the year is gonna be 'pivot,' in some form or fashion." Steve Weiss chimed in, "There's no pivot, Scott." Judge insisted, "I'm not necessarily talking about the- the- the Fed pivoting, but, think we're all pivoting. But thank you Weiss."

CNBC's gorgeous Dee Bosa, paying a visit to Post 9 in black, discussed Big Tech job cuts. "Meta's almost making the other guys look bad," Dee said.

Karen Finerman on the 5 p.m. Fast Money called the day's volatility "crazy." Guy Adami sounded like he appreciated the Fed's effort to fight inflation but faulted it for the type of bond-market volatility we're seeing.

Who woulda thought 3 months ago that META would be a safe haven in 2023

In a crisp opening discussion about the hot issue of the day, Judge's Halftime crew on Wednesday (3/15) expertly took a crack at where money may go.

Joe Terranova mentioned the "massive deflationary shock" at the top of the show and said there will be "strong support" for megacaps.

"I think we've cracked confidence tremendously," Joe said, citing deposits at BAC in the last 4 days.

Bryn Talkington said Joe is "spot on" about the "reallocation" by people selling commodities and financials and moving into technology.

Bryn said tech has "definitely held up" but she doesn't think it continues, because the whole market will have to price lower, and investors will have to be "incredibly cautious, defensive."

But, addressing that big meeting next week, Steve Liesman said the Fed odds are now 57-43 in favor of no change. (The 43 refers to a 25-point hike, not 50.) (So much for 50.)

Liesman said, "I think they wanna hike but I don't think they're gonna hike into, uh, disinflationary, uh, impulse from credit tightening."

Nowwwwwwwww we've got something interesting going on in these markets. Is there any chance markets would go up on emergency bank measures because it's preferable to higher interest rates?

Steve concluded, "I think they pause, because I don't think they lose very much inflation-fighting credibility if they take a pause and come back when things are more stable and hike again."

What Steve, or others, could've said is that this supposed "mandate" of the central bank feels more and more like a curious approach to fighting 1970s memories, that it's odd that it's supposed to be a "dual mandate" but nobody cares about the other part of the dual mandate for some reason and that maybe there are worse things than inflation, such as TARP.

Judge told all of his panelists they have to be quick with the Final Trade; each one tried to give a speech

On Wednesday's (3/15) Halftime Report, Jason Snipe, noting oil's slide, said a recession is being "baked in."

On the other hand, Bill Baruch said people "need to be prepared" for an end-of-2018-type of event "where the Fed starts to pivot." Bill said odds are coming in for 75 basis points in cuts through September and 100 through December, and "that's the playbook here."

Steve Liesman contended the Fed isn't as focused on the "stock market per se" as on the bond market or "financial stability." (And we thought they. Were. Only. Focused. On. Inflation.)

"There is not a big concern about the collateral held by banks," Liesman said, so this "should be a very different type of banking incident."

Judge wondered if "The Fed needs to get out of the Stone Age and get into the Digital Age," which means understanding what a "systemically important financial institution looks like today." Judge explained that SIVB did not meet the Fed's criteria for that last week but obviously did over the weekend, based on what the government did.

Jason Snipe said he sold KRE. Judge wondered what kind of "statement" that made. But Snipe said he sold it last week, which is ancient history by Wednesday. Joe Terranova said his JOET strategy "will go where it needs to go" and thankfully he can rebalance April 30 and on Wednesday's close he'll probably hike his position size to its largest since inception.

It’s that time of year

Many Wall Street types this week will undoubtedly be watching a bunch of college basketball games.

They should also be watching the calendar.

We are in mid-March. Which brings to mind the comment made by Larry Altman, who used to dial in to discuss the S&P 500 with Judge, on Oct. 1, 2014.

Altman told Judge that day that markets "usually bottom around the first week and a half, 2 weeks in October, or the first week or 2 weeks in March."

Please note that "usually" doesn't mean "always," and Altman was not referring to generational bottoms.

Rather, it's simply a very cogent observation that, for whatever reason, markets tend to do a lot of puking in early March and early October (see 5 months ago), and then good things start to happen.

Up until a week ago or so, this March didn't figure to have any significant "bottoming." Stocks' low for the year was Jan. 3, when the S&P hit 3,794; it was over 4,000 in the past 7 days.

But now we've got a very significant banking development and very significant government response. And it just happens to be the 2nd full week of March.

Maybe this is the beginning of big trouble for financials or stocks in general. Or maybe things are quickly looking up.

We'll soon find out.

Karen: Just by saying ‘whatever it takes,’ Fed stabilized 2020 markets, didn’t actually have to do anything

On Tuesday's (3/14) 5 p.m. Fast Money, Guy Adami said SIVB depositors "should be made whole," and he doesn't want to be "nuanced," but "it's much different than bailing out the banks like we did in '08, '09."

(Note: Like Hank says in "Road House," "Man, that sure sounds good." But after that 2008 bailout, 1) no more Wall Street banks failed and 2) the government actually made money. Keep that in mind.)

CNBC superfox Karen Finerman, whose voice should always be heard at these times (and others), concurred and said depositors shouldn't be expected to know the risks of a bank's Treasury portfolio. Karen said the "moral hazard" exists, apparently in regard to the stock price and company management.

Karen pointed out that early in the pandemic, the Fed announced it would do "whatever it takes" as far as buying bonds, and "saying that alone was enough."

We can be heroes

On Tuesday's (3/14) Haltime report, Jim Lebenthal said he bought the KRE and FRC. (This writer is long FRC.)

"I'm not trying to be a hero here at all," Jim explained. Jim insisted FRC is a "good bank" and "half of the assets on its balance sheet are mortgages." Jim said it's now "meaningfully undervalued."

Judge said Kari Firestone bought "more" FRC also. Kari listed several reasons for buying, including knowing people who work there, and said, "This bank is worth a whole lot more than what it was trading for, you know, between 19 to 30 yesterday," Kari said.

Kari bought more SCHW. Josh Brown, who previously bought SCHW and called the selloff "stupid," conceded, "Because it worked out so quickly, which I wasn't sure it would, now the only problem is I didn't buy enough."

Joe Terranova bought MA; he said he already owns V and owning those 2 give him "diversification" in financials away from banks.

Judge recalled Josh said on Friday he sold SPG (Judge didn't remember that VNQ was the other sale). "Commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop, specifically office building real estate," Brown said Tuesday, calling it a "secularly impaired sector." Judge said there may be too much office space, but, "We don't have enough residential real estate in many of these areas." Brown said that'll take "10 years."

‘Best director of a bailout’ goes to ...

On Tuesday's (3/14) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal bluntly said Fed credibility matters "a helluva lot less" than the "sanctity of the banking system."

"A 25-basis-point hike is not gonna do anything. Nor should they do it," Jim said.

Josh Brown likewise urged the Fed, "Do your job" — and he didn't mean hiking rates, rather they did "way too much too quickly" and created a "shock" to sentiment. Brown scoffed at the supposed need of the central bank to maintain "credibility."

"The Fed is singlehandedly responsible for turning portfolios of Treasury bonds literally upside down at some of the top 25 banks in America," Brown asserted. (Yes ... but Big Macs have to cost 25 cents cheaper, or the economy is ruined forever.)

Even so, "I feel that the probability of 25 is a little higher today than it was yesterday," said Kari Firestone.

Ed Yardeni said inflation is getting better and that the Fed is on the "right course" to bring inflation down to 2%, but it'll take until 2025. Yardeni noted the Fed's press release Sunday during the Oscars and said Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen should win "best director of a bailout."

Kari Firestone said of the META layoffs, "It's a lot of people." Judge posted Brad Gerstner's gushing tweet about Mark Zuckerberg; Josh Brown said he's sure Gerstner's open letter to META last year was "considered" but that there was a "Greek chorus" of investors complaining about the company.

Judge said Jim Chanos closed out his AMC arbitrage play of preferred vs. common, "so he's no longer a player there."

CNBC's airline/auto ace Phil LeBeau, who took a rare seat at Post 9, said Adam Jonas is wondering if the problems of SVB and others makes car-loan providers "a little more hesistant to loan."

Judge asked Jim Lebenthal about GM. Jim conceded share price has been "disappointing" but insisted the "value" of the shares has been going up.

Joe Terranova questioned what happens to car inventories in 2024 when an "avalanche" (he said that twice) of car owners are faced with much higher interest rates in their next leases. Jim merely said sales have been "unnaturally low" and have to catch up sometime. "You didn't answer my question," Joe pointed out.

Josh Brown said if you talk to Uber employees, "They don't want to be W-2 employees."

Joe said in his Final Trade that V should be 275.

Adam Parker: Stocks ‘going 5, 10, 15% lower’

On Tuesday's (3/14) Closing Bell, Adam Parker suggested "everyone I know" is moving money from "any bank they're worried about" to one of the "big 3 or 4," and if you don't and are left holding the bag, "you're kind of a chucklehead."

We haven't heard "chucklehead" on CNBC for a while.

Judge questioned if Parker's anecdote is just a "sample of 2 people." Parker said it's "probably about a hundred."

Parker questioned if we need 300 publicly held regional banks. Judge wondered if Parker expects "a broader crisis within regional banks" and said he doesn't want the conversation to get "too, like, hyperbolic." Parker said he's not "histrionic"; Judge said he's in a "very mellow sense." Parker asserted that if rates remain around these levels, banks are overvalued, including BAC. Judge said "You use a different methodology" than other people.

In the end, "I think the stock market's going lower," Parker said. "I think it's going 5, 10, 15% lower from here, because almost all the major things I look at look worse."

Carl "Day of Reckoning" Icahn told Judge we have "major problems in our economy" and that we can't have inflation and the Fed needs to raise rates "sooner or later." (Well, they've only been doing it for a year.) Icahn went on to complain about corporate leadership.

Keep that TARP precedent in mind ...

The first person we wanted to hear from Monday (3/13) on CNBC was Karen Finerman, who first soared in 2008-09 because of her stunning profile in the old Nasdaq studio her remarkable steadiness through the financial crisis, don't panic, keep your wits, etc., advice that paid off handsomely within a year to anyone who stuck with investing.

And in times such as we're experiencing right now in "regional bank" land, we can't think of anyone better to listen to than this Financial Superfox. (Note: This page is simply making a polite compliment, the same way Karen does when referring to a favorite bank CEO.)

On Monday's 5 p.m. Fast Money, Karen said there's still "a ton of uncertainty" in the market; then Karen got distracted by "static" in her earpiece and had to pause.

Karen went on to add that this is a "staggering change" for regional banks because people with deposits over $250,000 are wondering if it's worth the risk.

Karen called First Republic an "extraordinary institution" and "great product" but "sort of walking dead" because of the current regional bank situation.

Finerman's colleague Steve Grasso said he expects 25 points because the Fed seems "really dug in on that" (snicker) (how come in all these speeches in the last 12 months we never heard "and oh by the way, some shakily managed bank bond portfolios could capsize") and that doing nothing "might scare the markets more."

Karen wondered, "Is it the Fed's fault? I mean, doesn't SVB need to be on top of their book?" (That's a question that's going to be asked for a long time.)

A couple hours earlier, Judge's star guest on Closing Bell was Jeffrey Gundlach, who asserted the Fed will "probably" do 25 at its next meeting. Judge questioned that, citing the "earthquake" or "pretty serious tremors" in the past week in the banking scene. Gundlach said he thinks the Fed will do it, even though "I wouldn't do it myself."

"If the Fed doesn't raise rates next week, we should absolutely shutter the Fed and just use the 2-year," Gundlach stated.

He had kicked off the hour in a rather sleepy way, paraphrasing Mark Twain and suggesting today's investors may not know as much about the current financial environment as they think they do.

Jeffrey suggested we should probably be "very nervous" about the "lowest tiers of floating-rate debt."

Then, sort of getting way ahead of everything, Jeffrey noted what he called the deinversion of the yield curve and said it tends to happen shortly before the recession, so instead of thinking just recently that we wouldn't have a recession in 4-6 months, now it's "much more plausible."

OK. One of the things this page, basically alone in cyberspace (or print space, for that matter), suggested repeatedly after the TARP program is to keep in mind the precedent that was set here. (This page has no official opinion on TARP and is merely observing its place in history.)

Big banks were collapsing, the government ordered money into all of them, and the banks were saved and the government made money.

Ever since TARP, a lot of people have proclaimed how they hate it and how it sent all the wrong messages about bailouts. Like Mike Tyson used to say, all of that sounds good until you start getting hit in the nose.

‘Biggest disinflationary shock’

On Monday's (3/13) Halftime Report, Judge told Joe Terranova, "maybe they do nothing" at the next Fed meeting.

Joe said sometimes we get "a lot of clarity" from tumultuous market events, and this is the "biggest disinflationary shock" that we've had since the Fed started addressing inflation.

Joe pointed to November 1994 as a blueprint, noting a Fed hike and then the "Orange County bankruptcy moment." (Honestly, we'd almost forgotten about that one.)

Bryn Talkington said no rate hike at the next meeting "has to be on the table."

Josh Brown said the moves in yields "sets the table for a different mentality" about the rest of the year.

Josh bought SCHW, saying some of his best trades have been "in the midst of a crisis." Brown pointed to Europe about 12 years ago and how BAC went to $6 and MS was "single digits" in the "echo crisis of 2008." (We think that had something to do with Athens, when an entire hour of commercial-free Fast Money was devoted to Michelle Caruso-Cabrera reporting on green lasers being shined on the Greece parliament building.)

Brad Gerstner said "I really think Joe nailed it" about the "massive deflationary shock."

Judge never said that a couple tweets ‘brought down the entire national banking system,’ not even close

The star guest of Monday's (3/13) Halftime Reporet was Brad Gerstner, to talk about The Board Challenge, who said the first thing he'd say is that it's been an "emotional weekend."

"I'm from a small town in Indiana. I know Silicon Valley is not loved," Gerstner conceded, but he's been seeing people stepping up with tools such as no-interest loans "from Maine to Hawaii" had the government not acted.

Gerstner said the day in bank stocks "shows the perfect balance that our government struck here," that it found a "road map" to avert "an '08-type moment."

Then things got interesting. Judge told Gerstner that a lot of criticism of the government comes from "your neck of the woods," specifically the "venture community," which is now "screaming for help."

Gerstner, dodging the question, said the argument over limited government "is as old as the republic itself."

But Gerstner said, "This is radically different than '08. This is not a bailout for shareholders. This is not a bailout for CEOs. Their reputations are gonna be destroyed. Their savings are gonna vanish. ... What we did was protect depositors who did nothing wrong."

Gerstner predicted debates from this being a "big part" of politics "running into the presidential election in 2024." We're far from sure people will be choosing Joe-vs.-Don based on SIVB's long-duration bond portfolio, but maybe it will happen.

Judge then brought up Chamath Palihapitiya's comments a few years ago about letting airlines fail. "I didn't hear too much concern out- out of that part of the world about the baggage handlers, or the ticket-takers, or the food-service people, or the counter people-" Judge started to say, though Gerstner was not amused.

"Hey Scott- Scott- Scott- in all fairness, I was on your program in March 26, 2008, I was here the day the market bottomed, you and I were on together. And you very well know, that I said, 'The federal government just saved us from ourselves.'" (Well, first of all, that doesn't address Judge's point about Chamath; also, we have no idea what show Brad was talking about, as Dylan Ratigan was Fast Money host back then and there wasn't a Halftime Report yet and Gerstner according to what he later said in the program hadn't even started his firm until November 2008 so why he'd be a guest in March of that year is curious; finally, we can't tell from the charts that there was any kind of bottoming on March 26, 2008.)

(Was Gerstner possibly talking about March 2020? He was on the Halftime Report on March 24, 2020, but we barely noted any of the interview; also the 2020 bottom appears to be March 23 actually.)

Gerstner on Monday said, "I'm celebrating what happened in Washington this weekend."

Then he told Judge, "Let's not attack capitalism or those who are funding entrepreneurs, um, you know, for this problem. To think that a couple tweets this weekend brought down the entire national banking system is a farce."

Judge has got to start getting better earpieces

The second star guest of Monday's (3/13) Halftime Report was Bill Martin of Raging Capital Ventures, the short seller who was flagging SIVB back in January.

Bill said he started digging into the bank's finances because of venture's problems last year. That's when he saw that SIVB had bought about $100 billion in long-duration Treasurys at the top of the market in 2021. Judge asked how unrealized losses led to a bank run. Martin said it's an issue of "magnitude."

Judge said he'd have to move on because of a "little bit of an issue" with Martin's audio. (It had an echo effect but wasn't terrible; however, Martin was speaking while looking at the ceiling. Judge said it was "too disconcerting" trying to hear Martin. It's the 2nd time in a week that Judge has claimed audio issues that weren't a problem for viewers.) Judge asked about the "broader scale" of regional banking. Martin said there's "clearly a regime change" and the industry faces a "derisking period."

Going to be a while before Judge will be asking panelists if they got through ‘Everything Everywhere’ in one sitting

Glen Kacher was a guest on Monday's (3/13) Halftime Report; Kacher began by thanking the Treasury, Fed and FDIC.

Kacher said things could've turned out a lot worse this weekend. He said he's feeling "OK" about his tech exposure.

Bryn Talkington's advice was to "stay cautious" and "don't try to be a hero here." (Evidently Bryn missed Josh Brown's comments at the top of the show about buying SCHW.)

Josh raised an interesting point at the end, if new policy becomes all deposits are protected, is that really good for JPM, "what does it mean to be a fortress bank."

Judge asked about Brad Gerstner about The Board Challenge Gerstner's "exposure to SVB." Gerstner responded by telling of "starting the firm in Boston" and opening Nov. 1, 2008, and how he had to use his own money. "I've never had an account at Silicon Valley Bank. ... I had zero exposure to them."

Gerstner said the 10-year move is the market telling the Fed, "you better slow down," or more things "will break."

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Melissa Lee said the word "bottom," not in terms of the stock market but in terms of human anatomy.

‘We’re 24/7 here on this issue’

On Monday's (3/13) Squawk on the Street, U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) told Sara Eisen, "Thank you for taking, uh, you know, the opportunity to talk about this issue, it's very important, the American people want to know what's happening, and I appreciate your dedication to the issue."

"We're all over it, we're 24/7 here, on this issue," Sara said.

Judge still hasn’t asked panelists what they think of ‘Everything Everywhere’

Yes, our coverage of Friday's (3/10) Halftime Report and the big banking news is right below this entry.

However, with the Oscars on Sunday, certain pop culture intrusions must be dealt with.

This page, officially, did not highly rate "Everything Everywhere All at Once" and found its status as awards-season front-runner a head-scratcher. (You can see our take by hitting PgDn a bunch of times, or click the top link in the right rail.)

We've also heard from some respected filmgoers that "Everything Everywhere" is a great film, creative, dynamic, "have you ever seen anything like this before."

The Oscars are forever (except in the early '70s) on ABC, so (yep) Judge isn't officially interested, except Julia Boorstin will do a hit on Monday's Halftime about how NFLX went up or down based on the Oscars.

The guess here is that, assuming "Everything Everywhere" cleans up on Sunday with the grand prize, a lot more people are going to see this picture than have previously seen it, and it's bound to become the most polarizing Best Picture in history (forget "Crash" and "Kramer vs. Kramer").

We look forward to hearing what Judge's gang has to say.

It’s Plexo, not ‘Plexco’

On Friday's (3/10) Halftime Report, Liz Young, stunning in olive, said "sentiment contagion" is the "biggest question mark" about SIVB.

"There are so many things that went wrong here," said Josh Brown, who first pointed to "mismanagement of the Treasury portfolio." Brown seconded the notion of "sentiment contagion" as a potential problem.

Lo Toney gave an excellent description of how SIVB works, or used to work. He said Plexo doesn't have any money at SIVB, nor does he personally. He stressed the "fiduciary responsibility" of Plexo and others in managing risk in this type of situation even when trying to be supportive of the bank.

Judge told Lo that "the bubble has already burst" in Silicon Valley. Lo said, "It's likely that we will see another fallout" and predicted "we are going to see increased tightening in the standards" and that this is a "game-changing moment."

Judge and Lo effectively described how no one really knows how this will work, if a company has a loan from SIVB and that cash is deposited in the bank, how that will work.

Steve Weiss relayed the anecdote of "one founder" he knows who tried to get a wire out of SVB to another bank, so the founder went to SVB, got a cashier's check "for a very sizable sum," took it to another bank only to learn that that bank wouldn't accept it in a business account, "so he had to put it into his personal account and now is transferring it to the business account."

The accountants are gonna love that.

Or how come the SIVB honchos didn’t give Warren Buffett a call a week ago?

It would've been great to hear on Friday (3/10) that longtime friends and associates of Silicon Valley Bank rallied around this institution and kept depositors whole and saved the bank from closing.

Evidently, that's only how it might work in the movies, not the Valley.

Judge opened Friday's Halftime asking Steve Weiss for a "real world" discussion of the SIVB fallout.

Weiss said he's in "numerous early stage companies" and sits on a couple boards, and the "first call" he made was to "get the money out."

"Some of the resistance was, 'Well, you know they'll survive this then they'll remember that we weren't there for them," Weiss revealed, before adding that his response was, "You're not hearing me. Get the money out."

That is very interesting. We don't know whether it's heartening ... or troubling.

The fact that Weiss' business associates wanted to stand beside SIVB ... or the possibility that they only wanted to stand beside because they feared some kind of retribution later if they didn't.

Weiss justified this approach explaining, "If you take a look at Lehman, it took 14 years for the last person to get their money out, and they weren't all made whole."

We're glad Weiss mentioned the "L" word, because 1) it gives us the chance to again wonder why Judge can't get an interview with Dick Fuld and 2) it hints at maybe the most important problem of the Too Big To Fail scene that probably isn't adequately addressed by the stress tests — what if a bank has enough assets, and its customers simply don't care?

Josh Brown said he's a little surprised that "elder statesmen" of Silicon Valley weren't "more supportive" of a bank that's been there for 40 years.

We'd like to know more about that, too.

‘Missing the plot,’ in ‘Everything Everywhere’ and Silicon Valley banking

After making several cogent comments on Friday's (3/10) Halftime Report about SIVB, Steve Liesman saved the best for last when bluntly stating, "I don't understand why they're a bank to begin with. Sounds like a private equity financial company rather than a bank."

That's way beyond our expertise ... but it sounds like Steve is on to something there.

Judge initially cut off Steve's comentary claiming he couldn't hear Steve while viewers were hearing Steve just fine. As Judge cut him off, Steve said, "Hello? ... 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ..."

Judge later claimed the audio for Steve was "fixed" (it was never actually broken); Judge questioned if the Fed is worried enough about this type of problem.

"Lip service and a paragraph means squat!" Judge declared.

Steve said that "what we might learn" is that the Fed has "not been" worried enough. Steve suggested separating monetary policy from "macro" supervision; "sounds nice theoretically; we'll see if it's really working practically."

Steve suggested SIVB is "sorta prima facie evidence of a supervisory failure."

Judge wondered if Bullard, as just a name he pulled from thin air, really thinks rates can go to 7%. Steve then seemed to downplay Friday's news, stating SIVB is the 15th-largest bank and "there has not really been a banking failure I think according to bankrate.com in 2 years." He said "it is normal for some number of banks to fail."

Josh Brown asserted, "This bank has 200 billion in assets ... this is not a bank failure." Steve tried to respond, but Josh cut in that the bank was closed with $200 billion in assets and maybe we're "missing the plot here." Steve said, "I don't think I understand what you're saying, sorry."

‘Most of the notes’ say ‘idiosyncratic’

On Friday's (3/10) Halftime Report, Josh Brown, at one point, stated, "I think that we are underemphasizing the 2nd-largest bank failure ever."

Nevertheless, at another point, Brown suggested that in the bank-stock selloff, there's "probably gonna be some opportunities here."

Brown sold VNQ and SPG because of headwinds in real estate, though he thinks those names will be "fine." Judge said "most of the notes" on Friday used the term "idiosyncratic" rather than "systemic."

CNBC's gorgeous Dee Bosa explained that it was a "perfect storm or trifecta" that led to SIVB's fall.

Kevin Simpson said it's a "huge event" but a "unique situation" and not the "next catalyst" for a banking crisis.

Liz Young said she's expecting 25 and not 50.

Steve Weiss said Friday's news is "just one symptom of what the Fed tightening's doing." Weiss complained about the "free money" for the last 15 years.

Investor Ryan Gilbert indicated to Judge that JPM was, apparently, at least one of the banks he wire-transferred his funds at SIVB to, "and hopefully they're too big to fail."

Josh Brown said he bought more DOCU on the open.

Liz Ann Sonders said on Closing Bell, which wasn't nearly as strong of a program as what Judge put together earlier on Halftime, that "this is clearly an example of something breaking," recalling the adage of the Fed tightening until something breaks.

‘Closer to the bottom than the top,’ as regional banks are ‘not
systemically important’

We thought Judge might ask panelists on Thursday's (3/9) Halftime Report on Closing Bell to opine on Sully's premiere episode of Last Call ... but that didn't happen. (So you have to check out this site's review.

The most provocative comments (about the stock market, not Sully's show) came from Mike Mayo, who contended on Closing Bell, "This is the sort of time, I'm not saying this is the bottom, but this is that sort of seminal event, the Silicon Valley Day, that is closer to the bottom than the top."

Mayo told Judge that, apparently during the financial crisis based on the timeline Mayo was relating, "I was going on your show saying sell, sell, sell." (That's not possible, because Judge didn't have a show then.)

Now Mayo says he's closer to a "small buy for the next 6 weeks" (snicker).

In a blunt pronouncement, Mayo pronounced regional banks "not systemically important." Moments later, Judge read a text from someone from a "big shop" who said regional bank importance may be more important than Mayo thinks because of the lack of regulator attention. Mayo still seemed to shrug that even if 10 regional banks all had something bad on the same day, it's still not a big part of the market.

Quietly, it sounds like 25, not 50, is the next expectation

Judge, curiously like Sully the night before on the Last Call premiere, decided to open Thursday's (3/9) Halftime Report with an assessment of the ... national debt.

"More spending ... is just not what we need," opined Jim Lebenthal.

Judge proclaimed the Biden budget "DOA."

Once they got that out of the way, Joe Terranova said it's not just regional banks but "the entirety of the financial sector" that's facing pressure.

Joe said he's not "fully convinced" that the current market is a small-cap problem; rather, it's "remarkably puzzling."

Josh Brown asserted "it's 3 banks" with specific issues that are driving concerns in the regionals. Brown said the SBNY exposure to crypto is "very small" and seemed to indicate it was overly cratering. He said SIVB is "not really crypto" but "levered" to tech and startups.

Brown said the XLF names are "not that bad," and if there were fears of "systemic" banking problems, JPM would be 102, not 132.

Meanwhile, Joe said the record "annual recurring revenue" and "booking strength" got him right back in to CRWD. Joe said he almost felt like he was "short" a week ago watching the Nasdaq surge.

Josh touted ORCL's growth and called it "safe to hold through earnings." Brown said DOCU is the "cheapest it's ever been" though he does "not trust this company, necessarily." (DOCU slid after hours. This review was posted overnight Thursday-Friday.)

Joe on Closing Bell asks the best question: ‘Do they just keep raising rates if inflation doesn’t come down?’

Discussing Jay Powell's testimony, Steve Liesman on Tuesday's (3/7) 5 p.m. Fast Money let slip that "the market reaction was the one that he wanted."

But this page couldn't wait to catch up with gorrrrrrrrr-jus Karen Finerman, as Karen on the 5 p.m. Fast Money opined, "I feel like he has been hawkish, hawkish, hawkish all along ... and so it's surprising to me that today, all of a sudden, 'Oh my God, Look at how hawkish he is.'"

"They probably should've started in 2018 when they did that quick U-turn on raising rates, that to me seemed a mistake ... I think he's doing the right thing," Karen concluded.

Noting the questions received by Powell, Karen stated, "I always am amazed at how there seems to be somewhat of a lack of understanding of some of, of how some of the economy works, when they keep pounding on him, and yet, fiscal policy, right, is not helping, is not helping him at all. So, you know, he's in a tough spot, I sort of think he's doing the right thing. ... The alternative is to- for runaway inflation."

But guest Michael Contopoulos said "maybe I would push back a little bit on Karen," asserting that the Fed "needed to get more hawkish."

Moments later, Karen responded, "I'm sort of confused about the part where we don't agree, because I sort of agree with everything that you said."

Karen said Powell's response to one question about Fed actions causing a housing slowdown and rising unemployment — "he said yes, yes, yes" — was a sign that he's "admitting" that the Fed has to do this.

"Today he did, Karen," said Contopoulos, who said Powell got "a little bit too cute" at his last press conference.

Guy Adami opined that the Fed was on the "right course of action" in 2018 before getting "browbeat" by "that administration," and the market sank 19.9%. "My sense is, he's not looking to make the same mistake twice, nor is he looking to make the same mistakes that were made in 1972, '73," Guy said. (As the 1970s continues to serve as a vaunted sample size of 1 for a very important national policy.) (Presumably he's going to do the exact same greatness/non-mistake of the 1980s in which one guy hiking rates a few times in 1982 cured inflation for 40 years.)

All of this over a 1-month range

On Tuesday's (3/8) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal said we don't know if January's data was an "aberrational blip."

But Jim said the Fed is a "political beast" and will have a "political problem" if it tries to crush jobs while CPI is coming down.

Kari Firestone said Powell referred to "services" quite a bit, and consumer debt is climbing, and the remedy seems "you've gotta raise rates a little bit more than expected" and create "pressure" for people.

Kari said "most people would be betting that there's not another 50."

Jim said airline revenues look strong and that you wouldn't want to own them if a recession is coming, but it seems "further and further away."

Mike Santoli said we're "kind of right in the middle of this 1-month range in the S&P."

Kari Firestone said she owns PYPL but it's "volatile" and could be "below 70 tomorrow." Jim gave someone an A in Grade My Trade for ABBV even though the person has so far lost money. Jim suggested that person isn't like "one of these people" who write about buying stocks at 35 that are now 100.

Judge actually suggests Powell might ‘dump the Gatorade’ this week

Monday's (3/6) news flow was so meager, Judge led off the Halftime Report with the "Call of the Day," which Judge said was Goldman Sachs finally initiating AAPL as a buy.

Evidently saving the lede for about 15 minutes later, Judge told Steve Liesman that Jerome Powell maybe will "dump, uh, you know, the Gatorade thing, but it's gonna have a lot of ice water on- on investors, uh Steve."

While heads were scratched at CNBCfix HQ over that one, Judge explained it might be "even higher for even longer."

Steve undoubtedly spoke for many viewers in stating, "Tell me if I'm wrong here, you only dump the Gatorade when you win the game, right, and I don't think Powell is anywhere near winning the game."

"I just wonder if maybe he doesn't care about the stock market as much as some people think," Judge said. Steve said, "For sure, he wants financial conditions to be tighter."

Among the many issues with Judge's analogy is that, in general, the players dump the Gatorade on the winning coach, which in this case would seem like Mester and Bostic and Kashkari dousing Powell, rather than Powell dousing ... anyone or no one in particular.

But whatever.

A day without Jim vs. Weiss

Meanwhile, on Monday's (3/6) Halftime, in the category of 3-day (or less) stock market calls, it was Mike vs. Marko as Judge said the Morgan Stanley guy is now saying this supposed bear-market rally might have more legs, while Marko is downplaying the importance of "one strong day or week."

Expressing a lot of interest in a humdrum AAPL upgrade by Goldman Sachs, Judge even said it's significant because "the stock (sic meant 'firm') hasn't had a buy on Apple since 2017."

Judge said Goldman has rated the stock either "hold" or "sell" in that time, during which it's up "only" 300%. #nicecall

Joe Terranova said AAPL is "trying to restore its positive momentum" (translation: it's trying to go higher).

Joe mentioned "large cap" but mispronounced the second word, adding an "r." (That was a good one.)

Judge said Joe bought TWLO. Joe said he last bought TWLO in 2019; "this will be a much longer-term holding."

Jason Snipe said he sold HD because the "housing backdrop" is "not really positive." He bought ANET, which Joe said is in the JOET and a "great company."

CNBCfix viewers guide: Movies (or ‘films’) of the awards season

Recently, some Halftime Report stars have offered some unsolicited opinions about the movie circuit, which got the Spider Sense tingling here that an awards-season movie post was due. (Yes, it'd be great if Judge took up just half of a single show to discuss matters such as this, but Judge doesn't have the brass the time to allocate to this important endeavor (can you imagine the producer screaming in Judge's ear, "Did you just ask about 'Petite Maman'????? ASK JIM WHY HE LIKES CLEVELAND-CLIFFS!!!!!!!!!!"), so this page will get the wheels turning. (And you know, if you're a reader of this page or any page about business TV, you get it, and you know why arts criticism is important.)

There are no spoilers intended here and only minimal detail, but if you don't want any preconceived notions about these movies, feel free to skip. The following are presented, we're happy to say, in no particular order!!

The Fabelmans — Steven Spielberg takes Michelle Williams on a camp trip. Once it gets out of Jersey, it picks up a few sparks (that's not a comment on anything besides the movie); because this director cannot really make a bad movie, you won't get bored, but you may roll your eyes at 1) School fights against Biff's refugees from "Back to the Future" or 2) The brief appearance of the dreaded relative who's actually not as dreadful as feared and exits the moment he's no longer needed or 3) The notion that stray home-movie camerawork can detect a significant family breach that somehow no one has already noticed.

Babylon — The soundtrack is the year's best. Listen to it after the movie, which oddly pairs an extreme appreciation of Hollywood with groundbreaking grossness. Here's one point made: These are the people everyone wants to be around, and they just can't stop performing, ever. (Admit it — do you really know exactly what Babylon (the real one) is?)

Elvis — The point here is not that this particular celebrity was interesting — in fact, it seems he was not — but being in his inner circle is the ultimate pop culture trip. Impressive visual flourish, slows in the middle, a good one to enjoy at a theater.

The Whale — Most of it works, though parts of it don't. The apparent source of the drama is an offscreen character who is not shown. Still it's a strong argument against isolation and quietly reminds us of the value of simple everyday conversation with the people in our lives who are, physically, in tough situations.

18½ — Obviously contains some of the best acting in the world, because only the greatest actors could 1) actually perform the dinner-party scene and 2) not walk out on this project. You'd think Richard Nixon had ceased to become a subject of interest to filmmakers. Evidently not.

She Said — This was an important newspaper story and an important book. Someone evidently thought it was a movie too. We learn that the impressive amount of online subscriptions fund a very nice New York Times lunchroom and that some journalists think it's cooler to hang up on people in the news rather than try to elicit news from them.

Tár — The industry of conducting with an accent on marketing. Notice that Lydia is shown exercising far more than writing or arranging music, which perhaps gives her the sharp elbows she needs. "Tár" implies that supreme performance skill is only half the battle; the rest is a game of "Survivor." It does hoist a lot of unnecessary résumé-reading and texting. Some movies are about classic phonies. What should we think when the protagonist is ... mostly ... legit? Much of the movie business is, unfortunately, about marketing; this one could've distributed more inspiring stills from the film to media outlets.

The Banshees of Inisherin — What if the character played by Colin Farrell was instead a woman? Would the conversation seem so inexplicable? This one appears to be metaphorical, here's an outrageous portrayal of what happens when human beings simply "don't get" each other. Though fairly short, contains scenery filler.

To Leslie — Hollywood creeps into the closing scenes, upending what started out as a more powerful arthouse profile. It does seem like, when so many people in town don't like you, you'd be better off in another town. There's questionable self-help depicted here (or at least the success of it). And what the lottery has to do with this, who knows.

Everything Everywhere All at Once — Honestly, we're dying to hear Judge ask his panelists if they made it all the way through this one. It's creative. Michelle Yeoh is great. Other than that ...

Emily the Criminal — The title minces nothing. Yet, of course, (this is a movie), Emily is more morally upright than others in her line of work, which (on some level) partly justifies what she does, and watching her gradually kick butt in a fast-moving thriller is indeed entertaining. Requires an antihero acceptance. Then again, tons of people saw "Joker."

Top Gun: Maverick — Too much a tribute band of an underrated original. There's plenty of heart here but not enough humor; it also isn't really interested in any filming locations that aren't 5,000 feet+ above ground. A sequence involving a famous actor who isn't the star is perhaps the Scene of the Year in Hollywood.

Petite Maman — It's an intriguing concept, perhaps even taken from "Back to the Future" (meeting a parent at the same age), and, at 75 minutes, not a huge investment of time. Whether viewers feel they've gained any insight into the human condition after those 75 minutes is the pivotal question.

Aftersun — Some viewers were greatly moved. Others were not. There are probably better ways to illustrate gaps between a parent and child than cheap motel rooms in a resort that seems lifted from "The Lost Daughter."

Sundown — Some movies, including a couple others in this post, are about a character who maybe doesn't care anymore. Tim Roth's nonchalance particularly towards money provides a stark contrast to a fascinating adventure unfolding around him. Is he someone with a lot ... or nothing ... going on beneath the surface?

Most worthy of awards: Tár, The Whale, Sundown, Elvis

Seems like everyone’s doing value investing while David Einhorn says the industry is ‘dead’

Nowadays, watching the Halftime Report is like gearing up for the 1978 American League playoffs — "Ah, Yankees-Royals again — and sure enough, Friday's (3/3) program featured Jim Lebenthal's market view vs. Steve Weiss' market view.

Most of it's not worth recapping; Weiss mentioned "the pollyannas of the world who are mis- misjudging the importance of positive economic data."

"I feel like you're taking a shot again at Jim about his view," Judge said.

"No, it's a pervasive view," Weiss insisted.

"It's not pervasive; most people are negative," Judge argued.

Weiss said what's "pervasive" is the idea that the economy is "so resilient," which Weiss says is "not positive, that's negative."

Jim said, "Let's all acknowledge, that it is a muddle. It's a confusing situation." (As if Weiss is going to acknowledge that.)

Value investor Andrew Wellington said he's doing well this year not because of trading stocks but because "we're just benefitting from calmer heads prevailing."

Judge asked Wellington about a long UBER position. Wellington admitted, "That one comes up in every single client meeting." He said if UBER can get to its margin goal, it would have $3 of earnings. "We think they can get there," Wellington said, suggesting maybe not spending as much on driver recruitment, although that's not a bad thing.

"I think that travel is a bubble," Weiss said at one time, though it won't burst "at one time."

On Friday's 5 p.m. Fast Money, Steve Grasso said he's not sure if there's a "bull-case scenario as much as a trading range." Grasso said it's possible stocks could break through 4,200 because "the market is looking through a lot of damage on the economic side."

A cherry-picker’s market

Around the 12th minute of Thursday's (3/2) Halftime Report, Jenny Harrington started rattling off several stocks that demonstrated the "resilient" consumer, and that rapid-fire delivery is always good, because Jenny's chatterbox mode is supercute. (This page is just paying a polite compliment.)

Judge wasn't impressed, stating, "People are buying, like, dramatically marked-down merchandise."

"But they're buying," Jenny said, saying she has an "issue" with Steve Weiss painting an "incredibly dreary" picture of an economy that's "not that bad."

Finally given a chance to respond, Weiss said that projecting 3-year earnings, "How do you know?" And he thinks those earnings will be "worse or not as good than you're anticipating."

"It's our JOB to estimate!" Jenny cut in.

"Should I call back in at 12:30 Jenny?" Weiss wondered. Judge told Weiss to continue. Weiss said it would be "absolutely unprecedented" for the economy not to decline given what the Fed is doing.

Moments later, Jenny said Weiss was accusing her of "cherry-picking." Jenny said, "You know what cherry-picking is? Cherry-picking is active management. If you're not cherry-picking, you're buying a broad index." (And if too many people are buying those broad indexes, as Dave Einhorn noted a day earlier (see below), they're price-makers, not price-takers.)

"I'm talking about data points. I'm not talking about stocks," Weiss said.

Judge’s conversation with David Einhorn one of the best of the year

Judge conducted an interview with David Einhorn on Wednesday's (3/1) Halftime Report that quite frankly was one of the best episodes in recent memory.

A couple of Einhorn's comments about the goals/policy of the Fed caught our ear in particular.

"Raising rates isn't necessarily going to slow the economy, uh, in the way that people think that it is," Einhorn said. "Because I think the relationship between rates and economic activity is both non-linear and, at some point, the sign flips."

That's an interesting observation, because a lot of people on CNBC tend to uncork financial slogans based in some cases on sample sizes of 2 or 1 (one of our favorites is the notion that one fellow wiped out inflation for the next 40 years by hiking interest rates in 1982) without questioning whether the slogan is actually true; something we wonder about regarding traditional inflation approaches/slogans/mandates.

Then there's the Fed's approach — if any — to the Dow.

"The Fed does want stock prices lower. They've made that clear," Einhorn asserted. "Somehow they think if after watching the stock market go up, I don't know, 7 or 8 times, 7- or 8-fold over maybe 15 years, you know they think if the market went down 15% everybody would feel poorer and the economy would slow and it would spoil Christmas. That seems to be the way that they're conducting monetary policy. I think it would be better if they cared less about the stock market in either direction."

We'd be a little more specific. The fact that, over the past 12 months or so, all of these Fed officials are sent out to give hawk speeches whenever the stock market rallies does seem a bit ... indicative of something, something that doesn't really have anything to do with the purported mandate (cheaper Big Macs) or the real mandate (banks having enough money to open every day).

Einhorn said the phrase "tightening financial conditions" is "mostly about the stock market."

Fiscally, "It's very unusual to be running such large deficits at a time when employment is at or near full employment," Einhorn said.

He said he wrote a thesis more than a decade ago called "jelly doughnut monetary policy," which asserts that "beyond a certain point, once you continue cutting rates, you actually slow the economy." He said lowering rates hurts household savings and that raising rates from extremely low levels is "actually a fiscal stimulus" because savers are getting more and the government is funding it by paying higher rates.

Einhorn said he thinks short- and long-term rates are headed "probably higher than what, uh, what people are expecting."

He told Judge that, as he wrote last fall, he's still "bearish on stocks and bullish on inflation."

Joe Terranova said Einhorn's excellent take on passive investing — where a passive investor is a "price-taker," until "all the money is going into passive," then passive funds become "price-makers" that will create a "distortion" that ultimately works against investors — was not only "phenomenal" but the "most simple and efficient explanation of passive investing I think I've ever heard."

Industry of value investing is ‘dead’

Judge on Wednesday's (3/1) Halftime Report asked David Einhorn if Einhorn still has in place his 5th "bubble basket" of 31 stocks from last year. "Yes," Einhorn said.

Those names "tend to be profit-less, tech-type companies," Einhorn said, questioning accounting treatment that doesn't regard stock compensation as an expense.

Then Judge asked if Einhorn still has in place a short basket against an actively managed ETF of "so-called innovation stocks." Einhorn said "yes."

Judge said it looks like a "direct shot at Cathie Wood and her investing strategy." Einhorn said, "I'm not gonna get into a personal discussion of other market participants."

Einhorn said for 6 years or so, nobody cares about value stocks, "and these stocks are extremely cheap, and nobody cares, and nobody's going to care," which creates opportunity for investors such as himself.

He said value investing as a "strategy" can still do well, but value investing as an "industry" is "dead," suggesting much of the cash has been redirected to index funds.

Einhorn said he's "net long by a relatively small amount" in his portfolio.

How to avoid irking anyone on any side of the buybacks controversy

David Einhorn on Wednesday's (3/1) Halftime Report said the 2023 rally (if it's still in progress) is the "3rd" bear market rally after the 2 last year.

Einhorn talked up THC, first citing a multiple in the "single digits." He also talked about CEIX; "everybody hates coal," but it has no debt, and the free cash flow is about equal to the whole value of the company while still having "30 years of reserves of coal in the ground."

He touted the metals business of TECK and the need for copper.

Judge asked about the recent flashpoint (snicker) topic of buybacks. Einhorn said "there's 2 types of buybacks," one being creating value for shareholders by buying undervalued shares that give existing shareholders a bigger stake in the company without buying more stock, which is "great," but the other being buying high-priced stock and paying employees with it, which is "less desirable."

Einhorn, who doesn't seem to joke much, sort of cracked a joke that his Twitter account is in "good status."

Bryn Talkington stressed Einhorn's comments about the inflationary environment and said it was "a treat to get to hear him."

Jason Snipe said that listening to Einhorn, he doesn't think we're necessarily in a "renaissance" for value investing, but he thinks the value trade "can work" as rates stay high and/or move higher.

"I was remarkably impressed with his humility," Joe Terranova said of Einhorn's take on the "challenged conditions for value over the last several years," saying Einhorn was "humble" and not "arrogant."

Einhorn said investing, even in tough markets, is "way better than many, many other jobs."

Wish Judge had asked David if he wanted his money back from either ‘Avatar 2’ or ‘Ant Man’

On Wednesday's (3/1) Halftime Report, Jason Snipe said he continues to like LOW. Judge wondered if the home-improvement-trade "ship has sailed." Snipe mentioned possible gains in the 2nd half of the year.

Bryn Talkington has added ALB and SQM.

Bill Baruch said there's a 0.75 put/call ratio in CRM options before the earnings report. Joe Terranova predicted it's going to be a "tough quarter" for CRM.

Joe's Final Trade was actually YUMC; Jason said AZO and Bryn offered an options-related ETF called the BSEP whose particulars running through August were a bit much for us to contemplate. "Exposure to the S&P but with guardrails," Bryn said.

It’s Roseanne, not Roseanna

Tuesday's (2/28) Halftime Report seemed fairly sleepy, until the subject of movies came up, and then things got good.

Josh Brown said Disney's movies are "objectively bad," and the "streaming shows are even worse." Stephanie Link said Bob Iger is "gonna fix the content." Josh said he wanted "all the money back" from seeing "Ant Man."

Even Jim Lebenthal said he watched "Avatar 2," and "I want my money back"; Jim can't figure out how these movies make money.

Earlier, Jim said he wishes Gilda Radner were here to do "Rosanna (sic) Rosannadanna."

Judge questioned whether people were actually saying "shtick."

Judge asked Mike Mayo if Mayo is actually suggesting people buy GS even though Mayo expects GS to miss targets this year and next. "Uh, yes," Mayo said, suggesting too much is priced in. Jim Lebenthal stressed that people at GS are well aware of what MS stock has done since David Solomon became GS CEO.

‘Bullish on price’ sure sounds like it means the last 2 words are redundant

If we'd never seen 10 seconds of CNBC previously and someone asked us, "What does it mean when someone is bullish on price and bearish on time," we'd probably say ... it sounds like the person doesn't think prices are going to fall much, but it may take a long time for them to go up.

Evidently, it's not that simple.

Joe Terranova happened to tell Judge on Monday's (2/27) Halftime that, as far as the stock market is concerned, he's "bullish on price" but "bearish on time."

"I'm invested boring," Joe stated, "in quality," such as industrials, materials, health care, financials.

Judge asked Joe how can "the price be right" if earnings come down.

"I didn't say the price was right. I said the multiple needs to prove itself over the coming quarters," Joe said.

"You said you're bullish on price!" Judge said.

"I am. I am bullish on price," Joe conceded, as heads started being scratched around here. (We would've preferred Joe explain how MRNA was "very low risk" at $170.) Joe added that it would be an "absolute tremendous opportunity" if we got back to October lows.

For now, he's going to "stay invested" but in a way that's "unpopular" but will allow him to "ride out time."

"Yeah I understand," Judge paused. (That's fine, but we don't.) "But, but, are you bullish on the S&P 4,000? That's price. Or are you bullish 14% lower, where the October lows were."

"If I'm bullish on the S&P at 4,000, I'm nothing more than a closet indexer, OK," Joe explained, a statement that, as far as we can tell, doesn't really make any sense, but, like the rest of this thread, whatever. "So I'm not looking at that. I'm trying to outperform the S&P. Do I think the S&P belongs at 4,000? Quite honestly, I don't know the answer to that," the answer resides in "coming quarters."

"Then you're not bullish price then," Judge determined.

"I'm bullish price because overall, I think the upside potential for where the market is in the long term relative to the downside potential far outweighs being invested in the market," Joe insisted.

Joe suggested a drop to 3,500 would be "best thing for all of us," to have "capitulation." (Translation: Someone wants the big whoosh down.)

Cathie said on Squawk on the Street that ‘in the early ’80s, it was the same thing’ (The fact CNBC was touting this interview all morning and at times labeling it an ‘exclusive’ in the corner of the screen indicates Cathie still has a lot of cachet)

He may be "bullish on price," but Joe Terranova said at the top of Monday's (2/27) Hafltime Report that sentiment is back to being "uniquely bearish," and "I wouldn't get too excited" about Monday's bounce.

Judge said the recent employment report was "kind of a gut punch for the bulls." Sarat Sethi questioned what's the "downside" of getting 5% for 6 months in bonds.

Joe said he'd be "surprised" if we retest the October lows, but he doesn't think we're "racing back towards 4,800" either.

Amy Raskin suggested we're in a "trading range" and that we're not getting either the bear case (economy falling apart) or bull case (inflation disappearing).

Steve Weiss said his focus isn't on 6% or wherever rates finally end up, his focus is on "direction." Weiss again said that Treasurys are a "very compelling alternative" to stocks right now.

"You are getting paid to wait," agreed Sarat Sethi.

"Bonds do make a compelling investment opportunity now," offered Amy Raskin.

Amy pointed out, "Earnings were actually up last year, and the market was down because the multiple came down." Amy said though that she "wouldn't be surprised if people start talking about trough multiples."

Weiss insisted that fair value for the market should not be at today's "free-money multiple." Weiss said it's "clear" that earnings will be "coming down." Weiss said the market's got to "stop" referring to the last 10-15 years as "normal." Aside from these assertions, Weiss called Amy a "phenomenal investor" whom he used to work with; Amy actually said Weiss is a "great investor" and she misses working with Weiss.

Joe said he "said hello" to Cathie Wood earlier. Judge reported that Cathie said on Squawk on the Street that there aren't "animal spirits" chasing the speculative names. (Cathie also suggested that Twitter could become a "superapp" (snicker).)

Meanwhile, Sarat and Joe agreed financials are the "cheapest" part of the market.

Amy Raskin owns SHEL and is "still overweight energy."

Joe said SHEL isn't in the JOET in part because JOET is "U.S. listed" in "nature." Joe said "overall," he believes in keeping an "overweight exposure" to energy. Sarat Sethi said once we see the economy "stabilize," then energy will be "the place to be again."

Joe said Warren Buffett is "100% correct" about buybacks, and Sarat Sethi readily agreed. Steve Weiss said it's "absolutely asinine" to criticize buybacks and it's "purely a political debate" and just a "dog whistle" to the "socialists, the AOCs of the world."

Early Bust of the Year: Joe’s ghastly assessment of MRNA

On Friday's (2/24) Halftime Report, Judge asked Steve Weiss about MRNA, when Judge should've been summoning Joe Terranova on the Fast Line.

It wasn't even 3 weeks ago (Feb. 6, 2023) that Joe called MRNA a "very low risk" trade. MRNA was $170 that day. It's $139 as of Friday. (That's evidently why, as Judge pointed out during that Feb. 6 show, MRNA is not in the JOET.) (Maybe the stock will bottom at the end of April.) (This writer is long MRNA.)

On Friday, halfway through the show, Judge said the "Chart of the Day" is MRNA, after SVB downgraded it. Weiss said he previously "shaved it significantly" but still owns it. "I probably wouldn't put new money in it today," Weiss admitted.

Weiss admits ‘I could be wrong’

Friday's (2/24) Halftime Report was maybe the 79th (that number's probably too low) bull-bear go-round between Jim Lebenthal and Steve Weiss.

Jim opened the show calling Friday's market inflation reaction "one of the most idiotic moves I've seen in the markets in quite a long time."

Weiss said he'd think it was "idiotic" also if he were "on the wrong side of the trade." Weiss insisted, "The Fed is going to err on the side of doing too much."

Weiss then said what's "idiotic" is to have multiple expansion while the economy "directionally is slowing." Jim noted the "number of adjectives" that Weiss has used to explain away markets that aren't going his way.

Judge bluntly told Jim, "Your case is harder to make."

Moments later, Weiss questioned "what is the bull case," that the Fed is going to "stop sooner" or "pivot"? Judge said the bull case is a "soft landing" and the economy's not "completely obliterated."

Weiss said he sold ATVI even though he's "optimistic" about the Microsoft acquisition. Jim said "that does bear a pause," if Weiss is optimistic about anything.

"Why do you own anything?" Judge asked Weiss.

"Um ... because I could be wrong," Weiss said.

Later on, Weiss wondered, "How do you not sell in this environment?" Jim responded, "You might actually be in a bull market, Steve."

Judge says 2030 is ‘not that far off’ (a/k/a valuations can be spun 1 of 2 ways)

Apparently, there's such a dearth of material to publish on the Street that the notion of JPM reaching a $1 trillion market cap 7 years from now was Friday's (2/24) Halftime Report's Call of the Day.

"It's not that far off," Judge actually claimed.

Steve Weiss said during those 7 years, he thinks "Jamie Dimon is going to retire." Jason Snipe said GS was one of his Stock Summit picks (and we thought we'd heard the last of the Stock Summit).

Meanwhile, Brenda Vingiello suggested January was "overly hot" on the inflation front, but "at the end of the day," the consumer is "incredibly strong," though we're in for a "choppy period."

Jason Snipe said it looks like we're in this "higher for longer" environment, but the impact maybe is "not as blunt" as some fear.

Jason said of COST, "I just like the business," while TGT has had a "quarter to quarter issue" with inventory.

Mike Santoli posed the question, "Is the market underreacting to what's happening in bonds," without actually answering it, but he sees a "net positive" that stocks are holding up where they're at. He said you can "spin" valuations as being "rich" or simply "just what they probably are."

Asked to do Grade My Trade, Jim Lebenthal said that a viewer's BA position that is "more than 10%" of the viewer's portfolio is "too much," but "I still believe in Boeing." Jim said the new Boeing 787 delivery glitch "sounds trivial" but that CEO David Calhoun can't afford to relinquish newfound credibility.

Jamie Dimon says government needs ‘to change the mortgage laws to make them more affordable to people’

You know what military critics always like to say, "They're fighting the last war, not the next one."

Well, we just happened to look at the calendar and suddenly realized that the 2008 Financial Crisis is no longer "the last war" in the endless battle against falling stock markets, but maybe 2 or 3 wars ago.

Which probably explains why Jamie Dimon was arguing for a liberalization of mortgage lending to spur progress in troubled areas.

It happened Thursday (2/23) on the Halftime Report, during which Jim Cramer interviewed Dimon from Philadelphia, where Dimon was evidently celebrating the opening of a branch on 52nd Street. Jim seemed to assume viewers already knew why Dimon was available in Philadelphia (um, that's the tradeoff: receive publicity for a nice initiative and in exchange; field questions about why you seemed to say we can turn China against Russia) and didn't bother to explain it; we had to look up stories afterwards.

Nevertheless, Jim gained serious momentum during this interview, including when he wondered why Dimon was trumpeting a "sea change" (Dimon's words) of greater government spending.

Jim pointed to a stagnant area of Philadelphia, claiming "government did nothing for that area" and "JPMorgan is more important than the government when it comes to that area. Why talk about the government so much ... Business is the greatest source for social change."

Dimon said he agrees but that we need "collaboration," a word he used several times.

Dimon even said "zoning laws" a couple times and mentioned efforts to "try to get kids jobs" and mentioned hiring "ex-felons" and then declared, "We need government to do- to change the mortgage laws to make them more affordable to people."

He added, "In collaboration, you can lift up that neighborhood."

Now that's a lot of interesting stuff. A lot of people may wonder how "zoning laws" are keeping an area blighted, and a lot of people may wonder if outsiders "collaborating" can really "lift up" anyone's neighborhood.

Jim Cramer suggests JPMorgan Chase is ahead of Nvidia in AI

Jamie Dimon, the star guest of Thursday's (2/23) Halftime Report, was not at Post 9 being interviewed by Judge but in Philadelphia being interviewed by Jim Cramer.

The money quote, which became Judge's and CNBC's headline throughout the day, was when Dimon told Cramer that JPMorgan Chase is "not really" breaking out the recession playbook, though "we always have a recession playbook."

Exactly why Dimon was in Philadelphia wasn't made clear; according to Cramer, Dimon was getting people on "52nd Street" to have "ownership."

It was up to Dimon (and reading news articles later) to explain what is actually going on; it sounds like JPMorgan is opening a branch in a distressed area, and plans others.

Jim stated, "The cynics would say you're just doing this because of political, you're doin' it because you want to look good in Washington."

But then Jim headed off those cynics before Dimon could answer, stating during the day he saw a guy who's "actually a banker" who's going to make money because people in the neighborhood are doing better.

"The cynics are terrible," Dimon said. Dimon said there's "good evidence," both "anecdotal" and in "numbers," that bank branches inspire local businesses to move in to communities and "these things can lift up the whole society."

At one point, Jim claimed that what "Jensen Huang said" in the NVDA report, "you're already doing."

Dimon said AI is "real" but it's "still at the early stages." He said "it can be used for bad," and so there's a "little bit of an arms race."

Cramer's question about Jes Staley and Jeffrey Epstein was delivered amid so much mumbling, we didn't understand part of what Jim was saying and had to look it up. Cramer wondered why AI didn't catch that. "It probably would've," Dimon said.

America first, and ‘polite’

On Thursday's (2/23) Halftime Report, Jim Cramer pinned Jamie Dimon down in Philadelphia on saying "America always has to be put first," presumably referring to Dimon's January op-ed in the Wall Street Journal (Jim didn't bother explaining the backstory of his questions so viewers knew what he was talking about). (And honestly, whenever you think anchoring is easy, consider Jim's problems in this area on Thursday and then consider that most anchors on CNBC do it very well.)

Dimon said, "Yes, but I think America first- America has to help, if you don't have American leadership around the world, I mean, mature, polite (that's probably a reference to a certain human being), diplomatic, it can't be our way or the highway, if you don't have it, you're gonna have chaos."

Jim then referred to Dimon's January statement, "I read your piece as saying, Maybe we ought to go to China and defeat Putin together."

"I don't think we can do that," Dimon said, before saying "realpolitik" a couple times and arguing for a "comprehensive strategy" to make the world safe for our allies and ensuring affordable energy that doesn't hammer poor countries.

Dimon interview preempts
CNBC News Now

After Jim Cramer and Jamie Dimon signed off Thursday (2/23) in the middle of Halftime, Judge told his Post 9 panelists that "Hurricane Jamie" now sounds like "Thunderstorm Jamie."

Steve Weiss said, "I think the bet as to whether we have a soft landing or no landing, whatever the hell that means (it sounds pretty simple and straightforward to us, but then again, a lot of nights we're happy just to get a hot meal), or a hard recession, is not appropriate. It's the direction that we're going."

Weiss said "we're seeing delinquencies pick up" and the consumer balance sheet is "stretched." (Translation: Still sticking by Tepper's "leaning short" call.)

Judge asked Weiss about Dimon's comments on the economy. "He's in a much more responsible position than I am. So he's gotta be a lot more measured than I am," Weiss said, adding that Thursday's event was not the "right forum" for Dimon to opine on the economy.

Jim Lebenthal said that when Jim Cramer asked Dimon about invoking the recession playbook, Dimon "point blank" said "no." Judge noted Dimon actually said "not really." Bill Baruch said consumers are healthy but the problem is when Fed policy "trickles up to the higher-end consumer."

Liz Young said there's "cognitive dissonance" (snicker) between data on savings and credit card spending; "if they had all the savings built up, why are they using their credit cards so much," so something about that data "doesn't line up."

Even so, "Yes, right now, things are pretty good," Liz conceded. Judge said consumers are "probably better off at this point than we thought they'd be."

3 pairs of Birkenstocks

At the beginning of Thursday's (2/23) Halftime Report, the before-Dimon portion, Steve Weiss said he's gotten more bearish because inflation is "stubbornly high," though he concedes, "The economic data is very good."

In this curious bit of logic, Weiss said, "You want it to go down so the Fed can say 'We're done,'" but the Fed is "far from done." (Translation: Weiss wants the big whoosh down.)

Jim Lebenthal said the market isn't priced for 6%, but it is priced for "2 to 3 more 25-basis-point hikes."

Jim reaffirmed he thinks the recent inflation data was an "aberrational blip" in a downtrend.

Liz Young said she owns "3 pairs of Birkenstocks," though "they're not my favorites." Liz said she agrees with Weiss, stocks are "too expensive."

In a comment that left us scratching our heads, Bill Baruch said he doesn't think the market has a "multiple problem" but an "Amazon problem," and thus it's a "stock-picker's market."

Weiss said bulls seem to be focused on this "moment in time," whereas he's looking farther out and sees how the Fed will "err on the side" of doing too much. (Ah, so Weiss is skating to where the puck is going, not where it already is.)

Weiss talked about buying 9-month bills at about 5%.

Jim said there's been a "tone change" since Dec. 31, that, "Maybe the inevitable recession is not inevitable." Jim said the technicals since October are a "powerful setup."

Bill Baruch said NVDA's report "wasn't terrific" but the market's looking for "positive news." He had to trim because "it's our No. 2 position still." (This writer is long NVDA.)

Weiss said he'd be a seller of NVDA, not a buyer, mocking an 8-cent beat adding $75 billion in market cap, "that's ridiculous." Weiss said his "strong belief" is that NVDA will "retreat" from Thursday's level.

Judge said "pizza names" were "gettin' hit pretty hard." Weiss said TGT is "due to make a quarter." Bill Baruch said he rotated from DG into MCD. Liz Young said she'd look at "trading down" names in the consumer space, but careful, they're expensive.

Weiss said he sold the rest of his DE position. Bill Baruch bought more DIS and ABBV. Bill's Final Trade was LNG, though he said you don't have to chase it on Thursday's gain (which makes it sound more like a sell than a buy, at least in the short term, but whatever).

After Josh gives a lengthy and clear message, Judge asks ‘What’s the message?’

Joe Terranova opened Wednesday's (2/22) Halftime Report recapping his Stock Summit picks telling Judge when the next JOET rebalancing date is praising Josh Brown's explanation a day earlier of algorithmic impact on the stock market (see below), saying Brown "really explained it well."

Then, engaging in hyperbole, Joe stated, "We are in a period of consolidation like we have not witnessed in this market for the last 15 years."

Despite that once-in-15-years consolidation, Halftime panelists must've vigorously recommended at least a dozen stocks during the program (but here comes the recession ... sometime).

Jenny Harrington said markets "need the passage of time" for the Fed and supply chains. "We need to get from here to like 9 months from here really badly," Jenny explained, a curious theory that seems to suggest markets won't do anything until year-end, if then.

But Josh Brown said "the better game to play" of analyzing the stock market is to question why "every" industrial stock is making a 52-week high and why international stocks are doing well.

Brown suggested viewers should "start learning some new tickers" such as CLH and IR and ACM and PCAR and PH and ROK to be "where the puck is going."

Judge, as though he hadn't been listening, strangely demanded of Brown, "What's the message in that?"

Brown first said "I just gave it to you," then patiently explained, "The message is, learn a new game. The other game, the FAANG game is boring. ... This is where money is being made." (And if Weiss was on the show, he would've said that you don't buy industrials when we're heading into a recession. But he wasn't.)

Jim Lebenthal said it's "never a hundred percent clear," but he agrees "very strongly" with what Josh said.

Jim said the market slid recently because of concerns inflation isn't going down in a straight line; Judge cut in to say What's the message in that?? that there's also the notion that the economy is fairly strong, which only keeps the Fed talking about higher and higher rates. Jim said that 5 3/8 vs. 5 1/8 is "really no difference" to him.

Jenny Harrington said "what we haven't really talked about" is that "really what we need" is getting earnings back to growth. "FAANG is not going to be the leadership," Jenny asserted, again pretending that stocks like TSLA don't exist.

Joe Terranova rattled off HSY, CPRT, GWW and NUE as stocks he apparently likes.

Jenny said PANW is one of those "stocks out there" that's "delivering really significant growth." Judge pressed Joe on being "in and out" of PANW; Joe admitted "I used to love the name" (he used to mention it every other show) and then went on to talk up CRWD as better.

Josh Brown said CRWD "routinely" beats its "lofty" expectations, but he concedes it's a "high-momentum, high-beta" stock. Jenny said PANW is profitable in a way the others aren't.

Jenny has no answer that NVDA stock, and P.E. ratio, are much higher than INTC

It wasn't until the 40th minute of Wednesday's (2/22) Halftime Report that Judge asked Jenny Harrington about INTC's dividend cut, saying not only is a dividend cut "rare," but the size is "noteworthy."

Jenny insisted that "companies do that," but she conceded it is an "interruption" of a dividend that's been paid for "so long."

Judge asked Jenny if INTC is a "dead stock."

"It already has been!" Jenny said.

So Judge asked, why not sell it. Jenny said because she thinks the $2 in current earnings gets to $5.

Joe Terranova wondered, "Why not activism in Intel." He said that would get him interested in the stock, though "You could call that a hope." Judge said the issues are innovation and execution, and activists "can't deal with innovation."

"Right now this is Xerox," shrugged Josh Brown, who said that 5 years ago, NVDA was selling at 50 times while INTC was selling at 23 times. Brown said in those 5 years, NVDA is up 245% while INTC is down 35%. (This writer is long NVDA.)

Jenny eventually interrupted and said "But," which rankled Brown, who said Jenny could "pivot it to something else," but what he said is "iron-clad." Jenny insisted, "But," the stock at $26 is a "really serious bottom" that just needs a "tiny bit of multiple expansion."

Brown said he wouldn't buy NVDA going into the late afternoon earnings call.

When live TV is a rerun

Judge opened Tuesday's (2/21) Halftime declaring, "From our new home at the New York Stock Exchange!" Which tells us that, now that Judge is helming Closing Bell at 3 p.m., Halftime panelists will have to head to Post 9 because Judge wouldn't have enough time to get from Englewood Cliffs to Manhattan, so evidently, no more EC for Halftime, unless it's a guest host.

The Halftime Report previously has taken place on occasion at Post 9 anyway, so it's not exactly a "new home."

We also caught Tuesday's Closing Bell, which is basically just Judge moving up his Overtime ensemble by an hour, and because it's too early for earnings-report commentary, it's just an extension of all the same things Judge was talking about a few hours earlier on Halftime.

At least that's how it was Tuesday. Judge early on Halftime told Joe Terranova that "to some people," the stock market has been "delusional" about "what really lies ahead" in the economy.

It only took 6 minutes of Closing Bell before we heard Judge say "delusional" again.

And by the 11th minute, Judge was feigning incredulity about NVDA's year-to-date gains (see below, it was on Halftime too).

And in the 53rd minute, Judge was talking about the "word on the street" on crypto (you'll see that too in the Halftime roundup below).

On Halftime, Joe said you have to look at bonds, which has been a "negative return" for investment grade, high yield and emerging markets. "I always listen to the bond market," Joe revealed, except the bond market isn't telling us what it will do in the future, only what it's done in the past.

Judge's best question on Halftime was whether a strong economy is a "friend or foe" of the stock market. Shannon Saccocia said if there's "any evidence" that the Fed has to be "more restrictive," that's a negative, which doesn't really answer the question.

Judge's star guest on his first Closing Bell (as permanent host) was Keith Meister (above), who got a free pass a while back on Halftime when touting all these life science investments that aren't going to return dollars for ages, something only Steve Weiss noted.

Maybe the biggest change of the week (which included Sara Eisen on Squawk on the Street) was Closing Bell Overtime being helmed at Englewood Cliffs, kind of a flat environment at that time of day, by Jon Fortt and Morgan Brennan.

Wonder where ARKK goes
to ‘hide out’

Terminology took center stage for a while on Tuesday's (2/21) Halftime Report.

Stephanie Link said the industrial sector "continues to lead," and "if we were headed into a recession, that sector would not be leading."

Judge said to Stephanie that there could be "places to hide," but those places could be "dwindling more" as the stock market may have "underestimated" the Fed's willingness "to push it."

Josh Brown said he's been on Wall Street 25 years, and he's never heard a money manager say they're "hiding out in these stocks," at least not "out loud." (Actually, that's a great observation that probably merits more time, but it has the "ring of truth," as they always used to say in those Marvel comic books.)

Rather, Brown thinks people simply buy stocks "that they think are gonna go up."

Stephanie said if you're long only, "and you have to be 100% invested," you can "hide out in like more defensive sectors."

Sure, anytime a long-only manager knows which direction the market is headed, he/she can shift to more defensive/more bullish and obviously beat the market.

Meanwhile, Link's comments on industrials prompted Brown to say industrials are not "leading," that they're near 52-week or all-time highs, but it's the "garbage" (translation: stocks that the person doesn't like) that's been "leading" the market.

Stephanie asserted that a lot of industrials are at all-time highs.

Joe Terranova stated, "I'm outperforming today," because "I'm positioned for this ... call it whatever you wish, 'hiding out,' 'defensive,' 'cautiously bullish.'" Congrats to Joe. He's ahead of the masses for the day.

Judge stated "we never would've had this rally" from the start of the year if there wasn't a "narrative" about a "pivot." Josh stressed the presence of algorithms and said we shouldn't "ascribe" human narratives to "every tick" in the market because that's "anthropomorphising software programs that do not get emotionally attached to these narratives." Judge said he's not talking about "every tick" but "multiple ticks."

Stephanie Link insisted "we have 3 years of pent-up demand" and "oh by the way, China is just reopening now, so they're gonna have pent-up demand."

‘I don’t think the ARKK strategy is making a comeback’

Judge on Tuesday's (2/21) Halftime Report said the Morgan Stanley guy's new note says the rally has become a "speculative frenzy."

Judge mentioned COIN's climb but asserted there are a "million" other names like that. Josh Brown said "none of those stocks are in the index, so we don't really care." Judge said he could've "easily said Nvidia" and wondered if that move is "justified." Josh said he's not sure that such a move on 1 quarter is "justified," but was the stock's 75% slide last year "justified"? Brown said "absolutely not." (This writer is long NVDA.)

Later in the show, Josh said the bearish thesis for COIN was that the retail margins were bigger than institutional margins and not sustainable. Brown said margins are likely on a "permanent downswing." Judge stated that "the word on the Street, if you want to call it that," is that retail hasn't "fueled" the bitcoin rally. Brown said if a trillion dollars came back into crypto, "most of it's going to Fidelity," not Coinbase, which Brown called "another headwind" for COIN.

Shannon Saccocia said HD faces "challenging" comps. Josh said it's an 18 multiple, and he could see a 16 multiple "much easier" than a 20. Shannon conceded it could get "cheaper" from here but said the company has taken steps for longer-term growth. Stephanie Link said HD announced another billion dollars of "investments" and questioned if HD is in "panic mode." Shannon said HD is just "throwing it in, all in 1 basket."

Judge made the UBS downgrade of DOCU the Call of the Day. Brown said a lot of downgrades are coming from "analysts who were upgrading it to buy in the summer of 2021," so he tries not to be "overly focused" on it and in fact, he thinks this analyst has it "backwards."

Brown said the DOCU layoff announcement is probably good news even though the analyst thinks it's a sign of weak demand. Josh said this is the time to get "interested," when companies are taking "medicine."

Brown stated, "I don't think the ARKK strategy is making a comeback" but that DOCU is different than the group.

Amid a coughing fit, Joe Terranova said he's owned DOCU in the past. He wonders, "Why not a secondary" that could "turn the balance sheet around."

Shannon Saccocia said in the short term, you'd be better "elsewhere" than in UNH. Stephanie Link called ZTS a long-term hold.

Guitars gently weeping: Didn’t sound like everyone is George Harrison this time

Friday's (2/17) Halftime Report was basically a sleepy affair, despite the vigorous efforts of guest host Frank Holland to come up with things to talk about. (Whenever that's an issue, Judge's tactic is usually to ask Farmer Jim about DIS.) Yet it's noteworthy that Steve Weiss, as he's been doing for nearly 12 months, is still proclaiming American consumers (at least some of them, as he always tries to parse) are strapped.

On Friday, Weiss questioned referring to consumers as "resilient."

"What have they been resilient from? They're still on the back end of free money," Weiss explained.

He said he doesn't want to own TGT because we're "just starting" on an economy that's "really going to tail off meaningfully." (Yep. The recession is just around the corner.)

Mike Farr evidently seems to agree. "The consumer is running out of wallet," said Farr, who acknowledged "they are still spending."

Jason Snipe said retailers have been dealing with an "inventory issue" that's "somewhat behind them." But "we are seeing trade-down," and so he's "relatively neutral" (that's really playing it down the middle) on retail names.

Bill Baruch sold KO, predicting "headwinds" for high-multiple staples and suggesting the possibility of a "recessionary trade" (there it is again); he thinks T with a low multiple would be fine. Mike Farr though said he doesn't think Warren Buffett has sold KO in 50 years, and while Baruch may have a good point, "I'm just not a trader of Coca-Cola." Impressively on his toes, Frank Holland said T is yielding more than KO.

Jason Snipe called gambling stocks a "very crowded space" but he likes MGM; he thinks the sector may slow down in the 2nd half.

Mike Farr said he owns and likes DIS; it's "still on the rebound from the pandemic." Weiss said he'd be on the "sidelines" with CHRW.

Either you should ‘wait’ to buy it, or you shouldn’t

On Friday's (2/17) Halftime Report, viewers heard one of those typical investing comments heard on business television, this time from Shannon Saccocia, that doesn't actually make any sense.

Shannon told a viewer that adding to GOOGL is a "time-horizon question." She said for a short-term position, she'd "probably wait," but for a long-term position, buying more shares "is probably warranted."

So it sounds like she doesn't think it's going up anytime soon ... but it's "warranted" to buy it now? Shouldn't she be advising this viewer to buy something now that is actually going up and then buy GOOGL later? (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Kristina Partsinevelos, with sharp new hairstyle, previewed NVDA's earnings next week. (This writer is long NVDA.) Jason Snipe said NVDA is well-positioned for the "gold rush in AI" and calls it a "core holding" in his portfolio.

Steve Weiss revealed he trimmed PANW after a "great move" from the "150-plus" level that he bought it at. Weiss singled out the PANW multiple vs. the NVDA multiple. Snipe, who likes PANW as well, said he keeps holding PANW because "billings are strong" and he doesn't see enterprise spending cutting this category. At the end of the show, Snipe made PANW his Final Trade.

Guest Craig Sarembock, who owns DE, said the quarter was a "Wow." (We don't think Sarembock has been on Halftime previously, and it was kind of curious, because his type of appearance is more like what happens on Overtime.) He said he's liked it for a "long long time" and continues to add for clients. As with PANW, Weiss said he trimmed DE, after buying it "just over 400." Weiss said it was a "great" quarter but not a "perfect" quarter. He said it's a great stock and company but may not be the right stock for this market.

Mike Farr said JNJ is one of his top 10 stocks for 2023; he "wouldn't know how to trade J&J" but thinks anyone who holds it a few years will be happy. (That's better than Shannon's GOOGL answer though not a whole lot different.)

A viewer asked if he should average down in PYPL from 96. Jason Snipe said it's "challenging" to average down on PYPL and you'll "likely" be able to get it lower and he'd "hold off." (That's a lot better than the GOOGL answer.)

Weiss told a viewer that buying Treasurys offers tax advantages — specifically, avoiding state-level taxes — that a CD does not. Weiss' Final Trade was short RIVN.

Judge announces new gig on Closing Bell next week, turning over Overtime to Morgan Brennan and Jon Fortt

At the end of Thursday's (2/16) Overtime, Judge stated a big change to CNBC's schedule.

Judge said he'll be helming the 3 p.m. Closing Bell starting next week, and that Morgan Brennan and Jon Fortt will take over Overtime, and "my friend" Sara Eisen will "crush it at 10, and 11."

This process started a year ago, when Wilf Frost sorta bailed (he still appears on CNBC Europe telecasts), and the 2nd hour of Closing Bell was turned over to Judge.

That left Sara in some sort of TV limbo, hosting 1 afternoon hour before the big post-closing headlines roll in.

Wilf is/was dry. Judge has elevated that 2nd hour of Closing Bell, but it must be noted the first 6 months were better than the most recent 6 months, as the panelists — and the markets — have gotten a little watered down. And, given that Closing Bell used to be the stomping grounds of Maria Bartiromo, it's fair to say that afternoon hours at CNBC have become strangely fragmented; we're almost wondering if we're going to start seeing "Shark Tank" at 2 p.m. Eastern.

Good luck to Judge, Eisen, Brennan and Fortt in their new posts.

Fighting the Fed wins!

We heard one of the more interesting Halftime Report comments recently about several minutes into Thursday's (2/16) episode.

"I think you can get yourself in trouble in the long term by fighting the tape too hard," said Jenny Harrington.

Judge started off the show asking panelists whether they should be fighting the Fed or the tape. What Jenny is describing is basically the age-old "is it different this time" argument.

Jenny admitted to Judge that this is "such a hard year for me" because she wants to be "on both sides," she doesn't want to fight the Fed or the tape, and so she is "fully invested," but "cautiously."

Judge brought up household debt, including "huge" credit card usage, Judge said consumers can look strong when they're just "eating up debt."

"Credit card debt is back to trend," assured Jim Lebenthal, who suggested January inflation numbers are just a "blip."

Steve Liesman had his own description of folks who think the stock market's OK: "Everybody is George Harrison: This too shall pass."

Nevertheless, Judge said Marko Kolanovic is concerned about "taunting" (snicker) the Fed, such as crypto and meme stocks surging; Marko says that based on the move in 2-year yields, the Nasdaq should be down 5-10%.

Josh Brown said crypto gains aren't much of an "input" into Fed policy and that crypto tales tend to be "anecdotal" and he doesn't see much "linkage" between the price of bitcoin and employee wages.

Judge wondered about credit conditions getting too "loose." Brown asked Judge if there's any defaults in the credit markets and wondered why credit spreads would be "blown out." Steve Liesman agreed with Brown that a lot of companies don't have to refi debt immediately at higher rates; Steve said many won't come due until 2024 or 2025.

Jenny said another part of the bull case is China reopening.

Admittedly, Josh did tell viewers on Feb. 9, ‘I would not recommend anyone following me in here as a trade’ in TOST

Judge on Thursday's (2/16) Halftime Report asked Josh Brown about his recent buy TOST, "which today is burnt."

Brown said he's made a career of buying overexaggerated earnings moves and the report was actually good but the stock had run up far in advance; "I added to it this morning."

He said this is "exactly" the kind of growth story that's "out of favor," and he sees TOST being a "very large company" in the future.

At the top of the show, Judge asked Josh to talk about buying DOCU. Brown said the company is an "enormous business" and has become a "noun" and a "verb."

Addressing the fact (though it was unspoken Thursday) that DOCU is one of those names that tends to surface whenever Jenny Harrington complains about PTON or anything else, Brown insisted DOCU is not a "stay-at-home stock" and that his office still uses it.

Judge wondered if the stock hasn't already run too far from wherever the bottom was. Brown said whatever's happened in the past "doesn't really make me any money in the future."

Jim Lebenthal said after selling CRM, he was really underweight tech, so he scooped up ORCL, as Brown touted earlier in the week. Jim said "value tech" is where he wants to be.

Judge asked Jim about PARA, and why this page needs to include the latest chapter from Jim on this stock, we have no idea. Jim recapped a Grade My Trade on PARA from Bill in Michigan from earlier in the week and how he said to stick with it and how Judge asked "Are you serious?"

Judge said he said that because Jim had spoken of getting out of CRM on the pop and was advising the opposite with PARA. Jim said his advice to Bill today is that it's fine to sell but it's a good stock to hold. Judge argued that a long-term investor could deem the recent 40% jump "crazy" and sell and look for a better price.

Josh lets slip that Judge, producers are simply scanning the largest percent movers each day for show material

Addressing SHAK's 3% tumble on Thursday's (2/16) Halftime Report, Josh Brown said it's "TV stuff" to circulate a "doc" about stocks to discuss on the show and ask about only stocks that are soaring or plunging.

Brown shrugged at the selling.

Judge cracked a smile and asked Brown if he wanted to reveal more of the "doc" that gets sent out, it's like "state secrets."

Jenny Harrington said her shop has owned CSCO for 10 years and made about 85% including dividends. (We're guessing a lot of other stocks as prominent as that one have done better in the same time, but whatever.)

Judge said Deutsche Bank remains "slightly cautious" on NVDA. (This writer is long NVDA.) Brown said "it's never been a cheap stock" and that it gets "caught up in excitement" at times, and he tries to patiently ride out the good times and bad times.

Brown said you can either play names like NVDA ... or INTC, "and wish you were dead." Jenny and Jim Lebenthal laughed, though Jenny called it a "potshot."

Phil LeBeau reported on TSLA's recall over self-driving issues.

Jenny said despite the 6% dividend, NWL is "too expensive" and she doesn't own it.

Either no one’s positioned for it, or it’s a ‘rubber band that’s stretched’

It was every analogy under the sun for high-beta stocks on Wednesday's (2/15) edition of the Halftime Report.

Joe Terranova opined that "maybe no one" is positioned for what's happening, that at the beginning of the year, no one talked about buying high-beta, nonprofitable companies but only "quality" companies. Joe said he's read all the 13Fs, and "everyone sees the same thing," and when that happens, "the outcome never happens."

Rob Sechan said he'd challenge the "never happens" part of that statement.

Rob said stronger growth puts the Fed in a "pretty weird situation," and that there are risks out there.

Judge wondered why everyone, including Bryn Talkington, has not loaded up on strong-consumer stocks. Bryn said "labor equals the consumer" but then cautioned that "many times" before a recession, unemployment is at "all-time lows." But you have to entertain the idea that "this time is different."

Joe said he's "terrified" to buy a company like RBLX right now, but that's the "reality" of what's working.

Bryn said a year ago, you didn't want any high-beta; now you can get "wheat from the chaff." But Rob said his market view is that "we're a little extended." Judge got Rob to agree that the high-beta market is getting to be a "stock-picker's market," as Bryn indicated.

Joe said he thinks you can look at XM, TWLO, ZM. Rob said that's a "renter's market." Rob actually said the train is headed to California and we know it's going to "crash"; Judge wondered if the crash didn't already happen. Rob said the Nasdaq multiple is 26½.

Bryn said buying a basket of high-beta at this point would be like a "rubber band that's stretched." Bryn said she thought RBLX's gain Wednesday is "a little bit much." Bryn said she might sell calls in a few days if the stock has follow-through.

Actually, we want to hear more about that Tesla charging network

On Wednesday's (2/15) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova said "everyone" believes the DVN drop is "way overdone."

But Joe said, having observed the energy markets for a really long time, that "way overdone" can last longer than people think.

Joe explained that he can't do anything about his personal and JOET positions in DVN until the end of April.

Judge said DVN seems like one of the "most crowded" energy names. Joe agreed. Bryn Talkington agreed it's "very highly owned" and that people had to "recalibrate" the dividend. Bryn even made it her Final Trade but said to "wait a couple days" and said it's got "strong support" from 53-55.

Jason Snipe said he thinks there's still opportunities in semiconductors even after the big 2023 start. Rob Sechan said he thinks semis may "give up some of their gains for a bit."

Jason touted upgrades in WMT and said Marriott's REVPAR growth is above pre-pandemic levels; his shop added to its stake.

Meanwhile, Judge said Mike Mayo thinks GS' Feb. 28 Investor Day may be a "sell-the-news event."

Judge claimed, "When Mayo speaks, people listen." Bryn said the IPO market has been in "hibernation," and GS dominates that market, so that's a positive catalyst ahead. Jason said consumer banking is expensive, and pivoting away "makes a lot of sense." Joe said he thinks of GS as a great trading company and that they "lost their identity." He said rather than sell the news, Feb. 28 could be a buy if the company returns to what it really is.

Late in the show, Judge said the WSJ is breaking news that the Justice Department has "ramped up work" on a potential AAPL antitrust complaint.

Jason Snipe praised a viewer's trade of PANW and called it a hold; Bryn Talkington praised another viewer's position in FTI. Rob Sechan called PFE a hold.

Jeremy decries the ‘impatience’ of those demanding to see 2% inflation

You knew it was a slow news day in the markets when Tuesday's (2/14) Halftime Report opened with Josh Brown explaining his buy of ORCL.

Brown admitted it's been a "very boring company," but now, Safra Catz has been "doing all the right things."

Steve Liesman made things a little interesting by asserting "the risk" to the economy is no longer the Fed doing less, but "the Fed doing exactly what it says or more."

Then Judge brought in Jeremy Siegel, the star guest, and asked if Siegel has been "too bullish" about plunging inflation. Jeremy responded by mentioning "impatience" and asserted it's been "less than 1 year" since the Fed started tightening, and it's had "a lot of effect" on prices in 12 months already, and it's a "long process."

Jeremy said this seems like a "stronger economy" than just "4 weeks ago," which makes it "more likely" that the Fed isn't cutting rates later in the year. Judge said it's a "major change" for Jeremy not to be predicting a cut in the 2nd half of the year. Jeremy said he said it's "less likely" than he recently thought, but he still thinks it's likely, as in going from 80% to 50%.

Jim Lebenthal, before he got to launch into conversations about the same 3-4 stocks he discusses at length on every episode of the program, said he's "really happy" with the market's inflation response Tuesday; "maybe the market is starting to take inflation in stride."

Jim said he sold CRM because he wasn't comfortable with the multiple, and because the market gave him a "gift." Judge noted that Jim used to own ROKU. CRM wasn't Jim's first high-multiple venture ... and we're fairly sure it won't be the last.

Josh Brown said CRM has "a thousand middle managers" and he's not a fan of the stock but that it's a great, indispensible company for him.

You could’ve bought PTON 3 years ago in the $20s, made a much bigger return than CVX

On Monday's (2/13) Halftime Report, Judge said Jonathan Krinsky (who wasn't on the show) is predicting a rebound in energy.

Joe Terranova said Jonathan may be right, but only specifically in oil, as Joe doesn't think there's "universal" strength among commodities. But Joe said there's also a "likelihood" that Krinsky is wrong.

Joe said he wouldn't address energy in the JOET until the "end of April." Judge pressed for info on Joe's "personal" holdings. Joe said that'll wait until end of April too.

Steve Weiss again said energy is "tradeable" but "long-term uninvestable," which got Jenny Harrington going.

Jenny said the most she'd expect from energy in 2023 is "10-12%," given how much it went up in 2021 and 2022. But she reiterated that at $60 a barrel, oil companies still "mint cash."

Weiss again argued with Jenny, "no offense," that oil being at $60 doesn't mean "you're not gonna lose your shirt if that happens, and you will." Weiss insisted the way the "fundamentals" move is "informed by the value of the commodity."

"That's actually not true," Jenny said, pointing to CVX at $120 when oil was "140"; now oil's at $75 and CVX is $170.

Jenny also curiously said Weiss and everyone else knows there's a "hatefest on energy."

Jenny at one point even said, "You could've bought Chevron at like 70 bucks 3 years ago. You would've made a nice return."

Joe Terranova corrected something Jenny said, explaining that oil's high last year was "130.50."

"All right, I was off," Jenny admitted.

And in another outstanding observation, Joe said crude only spent 7 days of the entire year above 120, not enough time to "impact" the earnings of energy companies.

Weiss and Jenny both talked up XPO; Weiss said he'd like to get back in the stock but it's "economically sensitive" and so now is "not the time."

Jenny was asked to grade someone's trade of SBLK. "I don't think you should ever trade Star Bulk," Jenny began, so there's that.

Weiss was asked to grade a trade of Nasdaq 100 July 280 puts expiring in 2024, from a viewer who calls Weiss the "king." Weiss said it's not a trade he'd do, rather, he'd single out overvalued stocks in the Nasdaq. Joe Terranova said the agriculture stock he'd buy is CTVA. But Weiss made BG his Final Trade.

Jenny takes notes on what panelists are saying, still misquotes Weiss (Note: It’s Jim who keeps saying the consumer will stay strong)

Joe Terranova opened Monday's (2/13) Halftime Report saying the "pressure" is on the bears. "I think bulls are in control here," Joe said, and have a bit of a "runway" through the spring.

Joe predicted a "bumpy" road for inflation but said unless we got a "very hot number," the market's "goin' up."

Judge asked Steve Weiss about Joe's statement. Weiss said he doesn't agree with Joe's characterization that anyone's "in control" of the market. Judge said only Weiss could provide that type of "pretzel twist" answer.

Weiss said it's "completely asinine" to think the Fed will "pivot" and start cutting "at any point this year." (Note: It's not "asinine." We don't know if it will happen, but it's not "asinine" to think it might.)

Weiss thinks the market's in a "very narrow trading range."

Jenny Harrington revealed that she's writing down other panelists' answers, which surprised Weiss, who apparently attempted to give Jenny a fist-bump in appreciation of this effort, which Jenny declined. "You took potshots, and that was a mean one, and I wrote that down too," Jenny told Weiss, and we honestly don't know what she meant by the "mean one."

"I think we're range-bound," Jenny said.

Jenny once again couldn't resist knocking anyone who bought PTON or TDOC or DOCU, suggesting all those people who are "afraid to try something new," according to Jenny, went back to "cherry-picking" good news in this rally and buying high-multiple tech names.

Joe Terranova mentioned the "intensity" of the tax-loss selling in late 2022.

Judge multiple times referred to the Morgan Stanley guy saying the bear-market rally is about over.

Jenny said she's been researching SWK, hoping to get it under 80. Stephanie Link used to tout that name about once a week.

Weiss once again stressed that while higher-end consumers are OK, the lower end is really struggling with inflation.

Jenny followed that with, "So when Weiss says, 'I think the consumer's going to remain strong-'"

"I didn't say that," Weiss said. "I never said the consumer is going to remain strong. I said the high-end consumer."

"OK. Fine," Jenny chuckled. "Some consumers are going to remain strong."

"It's a big difference," Weiss said.

Jenny defended her new buy, SWKS, based on ... you guessed it ... P.E. ratio.

Brad Gerstner, TSLA and the early race for Call of the Year

Yes, it's fairly early in 2023, and a lot of people still aren't won over by the stock market's robust start to the year.

But already, there are some exciting (yes) developments in the contest (hosted exclusively by this page) for Halftime Report/Fast Money (generally we're talking Halftime) Call of the Year.

The performance of TSLA in 2022 ended up so badly, a few backers got zinged on this page's year-end recap.

But long TSLA in January 2023 is one of the greatest trades in recent memory. (Whether it continues, we have no idea.) (This writer has no position in TSLA.)

Which means opinions on this stock — and there were many — in late December and early January will figure prominently in 2023 calculations.

As will the recent enthusiasm of Brad Gerstner toward META and other tech giants, a moment that could emerge like Ricky Sandler's March 2020 call ... or just be forgettable temporary oversold/short covering euphoria.

Can't wait to see how it plays out.

Bryn handed someone a gift of 150 TSLA calls for $10

Early on Friday's (2/10) Halftime Report, Bryn Talkington took up the subject of TSLA.

"It should've never been at a hundred," Bryn said, and given where it's at now, it's hard to argue with that.

She revisited her TSLA trade that she mentioned in early January, buying at 120 and selling 150 calls (which cost her some serious upside). (And to think on Jan. 6, this page called the buyer of those calls a "bonehead.") (Oops.)

Steve Weiss said what he doesn't get regarding TSLA is why "nobody looks at the China risk. Look what happened to every company doing business in Russia."

But that wasn't the end of TSLA on Friday; in fact, the good stuff was just getting started.

Moments later, Phil LeBeau reported that TSLA may be forced to open up its "supercharger network." Phil noted the stock has had a "heckuva run" recently. Phil said some of his friends with TSLA cars find the supercharger sites "already busy."

Bryn Talkington revealed, "I drive a Tesla," and she knocked "such an overreach" by the government, which Bryn said has given TSLA "the Heisman" despite Tesla building out its own network.

Steve Weiss (at least he wasn't opining on the BAC downgrade this time) interjected, "They're saying, if you want our money, here's what you have to do."

"They're giving the money to every other company," Bryn said.

"And the other companies are also gonna open up their charging networks," Weiss said.

"They have zero. They have zero," Bryn said.

"It doesn't matter. He can say, 'We don't want it,'" Weiss said.

"That's absurd," Bryn said.

Weiss pushed on. "If they weren't giving 'em money, fine," he said. "And I believe the Biden administration is socialist. But this, if they're giving 'em money and they're taking the money, then they have a right to put conditions on the money."

Bryn said other companies are "getting a pass." Weiss said they're not getting a pass; they're all building out networks.

We knew very little about this issue before Friday's Halftime. Afterwards, we looked up the story at Reuters.com. Bryn's sentiments make a lot of sense, but Weiss has a good point.

LULU shoes look like Nikes

Brenda Vingiello at the top of Friday's (2/10) Halftime Report said to expect tech stocks to remain "limited in terms of the multiple."

Steve Weiss said he thinks investors "still wanna be mostly in cash."

Bryn Talkington said, "Stocks are pricing in no recession, soft landing. Bonds, though, drive stocks. And within the bond market, the 2-year is what you need to focus on."

Jason Snipe said a lot of the selling late last year was "overdone" and that in early 2023, "a lot of folks are offside." But he said high-beta names have probably run "too far too fast."

Weiss said "clearly inflation" is driving the market in this cycle. Weiss said he thinks the recent jobs number will be "revised dramatically."

The day's most vigorous stock debate concerned GOOGL. (This writer is long GOOGL.) Weiss said the MSFT rollout was a "game-changer" for GOOGL, so he exited his GOOGL trade.

But Snipe said of Alphabet's tumble, "That trade is a little bit overdone," adding "They'll figure this out."

Weiss insisted there's been "dramatic changes" in this situation since GOOGL was "oversold" a week ago. Snipe said he "totally" gets the competitive issues and it's a "win" for MSFT but for GOOGL, he sees "a chance to get back in this." Brenda Vingiello made GOOGL her Final Trade.

Brenda reported selling INTC (Zzzzzzzzz) and buying ALB with the proceeds.

Bryn asserted that the "pullback in energy as a whole is overdone."

Jason said TGT will put "the inventory story" in the past. Bryn prefers WMT.

Weiss acknowledged he sold LULU. Judge asked why. "Because I got a year's worth of performance in about, uh, 2-3 weeks," Weiss said, adding he thinks he can get LULU "below 300." Bryn Talkington said the "store needs a refresh" and "the shoes look just like Nikes by the way."

Judge asked Bryn about RBLX, which Bryn at first shrugged off as just another high-beta stock that's having a tough week, explaining that ARKK's "down about 8% this week." Bryn said she likes the stock and when it trades around 40, she sells the 50 calls. She concedes "there's not an E" in the P.E. ratio.

Jason thinks you should "definitely" hold PYPL here (as the stock continues to get endless buy/hold recommendations from the Halftime Report). Brenda Vingiello would "hold off" on buying NVDA.

Weiss touted ATVI (again), this time as a Final Trade.

Mystified as to why Weiss felt the need to call in about the BAC downgrade

You knew things were slow on Thursday (2/9) when Judge opened the Halftime Report giving Josh Brown a lengthy opportunity to discuss some stock called TOST.

Brown said it's "a very small position." He cautioned this isn't the "only price" he'll be buying (that's couching in case it plunges) and stated, "I would not recommend anyone following me in here as a trade. This is an investment for me." (Further couching.)

"The business has never been in better shape," Brown said, acknowleding the stock's decline from shortly after the IPO. He said it's preferable to buying a single restaurant stock.

Meanwhile, Jim Lebenthal said what he got from the DIS report is that the business is "kind of OK" but requires "restructuring" to "make it good."

Bill Baruch said he's happy with DIS and would buy more at 108. "This is the greatest storytelling brand ever," Bill said, and "this story has just begun." (Actually, the DIS "story" is in the news about twice a week, every week, but whatever.)

Judge reported that Third Point is the "5th known activist shareholder" with a stake in CRM. Jim Lebenthal said because CRM growth has decelerated, the 29 multiple may still be too high. Jim said if he were Marc Benioff, he'd sit back and let the activists "feed on themselves."

Jim said CRM delivers a "fantastic" product. Bill Baruch said a lot of the company's growth is from acquisitions; he sold it last year, but the stock is "on my radar again."

Judge said KBW downgraded BAC with a price cut. Steve Weiss called in (we're not really sure why, based on the commentary that ensued) and said he actually didn't disagree with the downgrade. Weiss said it's "unlikely" he'd be putting "new money" into big banks, citing the "challenge in the yield curve" and "I do believe we're going into a recession."

Judge said Jim Lebenthal was "literally laughing" at Weiss' comments. Jim said this is just "Round 25" of Lebenthal vs. Weiss on strength of the consumer; Jim cited last week's jobs report and said, "Come on!" Weiss said "no offense," but he'll take Moynihan's and Dimon's view of the world over Jim's, and he'll let Jim "cherry-pick" the data.

Brian Belski asked Weiss of BAC, "Do you like it or not like it? I don't get it." (See what we mean about wondering why Weiss even called in?) Weiss told Belski and Judge he thinks BAC will be "dead money for the next 6 months or so." He said viewers "get it," but he'll go slower for Belski and Jim.

Inflation can be overrated (cont’d) (as Judge catches Weiss making both sides of an argument) (at least he didn’t say ‘bulls---’)

The shocker of Tuesday's (2/7) Halftime Report occurred when Steve Liesman started channeling Jeremy Siegel.

Shortly into the program, Steve opined, "I'm afraid the Fed may be a little out of touch with the inflation dynamic ... I'm not confident in their understanding of what's happening in the economy."

Hoo, boy.

"Really. That's a huge statement for somebody like you to make," Judge declared.

"I feel like there's stuff going on in the economy that has defied prior analogs," Steve explained.

"I am not sure, I do not buy this idea that the labor market is the source of this inflation problem the Fed believes it is," he continued.

"What everybody calls the Great Resignation is really the Great Reshuffle," Steve concluded.

Steve argued the economy needs a "new equilibrium level" of employment, and "there has been enormous productivity surge in this country that nobody has taken note of."

Steve said productivity has reached levels it shouldn't have reached until 2026. He said it's "disinflationary," but he's not sure "the Fed is incorporating that."

Judge said Steve had made a "sort of bombshell-like statement" about the Fed perhaps "driving it into a brick wall," and Judge asked Steve Weiss what Weiss thinks of that assessment.

Weiss said Liesman "does great work," but "the market doesn't care about that." Off on a tangent, Weiss predicted stocks would rally again no matter what Jay Powell said later during the program because the market is "ignorant" about what's happening. (That was a great call, it was revealed later.) (This review was posted overnight Tuesday/Wednesday.)

Then, Weiss added, "You know what destroys economies on a long-term basis. You know what destroys countries and democracies? Is persistently high inflation."

"Right, right, but it's coming down," Judge said.

Sorry Judge, and Steve, it's not right.

Inflation is an effect, not a cause, of something that's way too deep for our pay grade (snicker) here.

Weiss countered Liesman by asserting "the biggest mistake the Fed can make is pausing and not sticking to their game plan." So he thinks they will "keep going" and that "credit is still too easy."

Liesman said that in 2022, unemployment fell from 3.8% to 3.6% while the employment cost index went from 1.4% to 1.0%. "So it was the opposite of the inflation dynamic that the Fed has told us is at work," Liesman said.

"The point is that I do not see the wage story driving the inflation story," he continued, adding that there may be times for driving the economy into a "brick wall," but "I'm afraid it may not be necessary this time."

Judge observed that "they seem intent on almost doing that."

"I don't think that's the case," Weiss said, stating, "A brick wall is awfully far away," comparing it to the distance from Englewood Cliffs not to California, but to China (which can be traversed by balloon by the way), an odd comparison.

Then Judge, in one of his finest moments of 2023, correctly told Weiss that Weiss is the one who says what the Fed has done hasn't even "showed up yet."

"That's not what I said," Weiss claimed.

"It is," Judge said.

"No it's not, Scott. I said the full impact of what they've done has not shown up yet," Weiss insisted.

(He actually said it's only "early innings." See below.)

"So why do you keep arguing that they need to do a lot more if the full impact hasn't been felt yet? I don't understand that," Judge said, a question nearly as great as Lt. Kaffee asking Col. Jessep why, if his orders are always followed, Santiago needed to be transferred off the base?

Weiss tried to ask, "Where's inflation today?," but he and Judge talked over each other; apparently Weiss was trying to say that the Fed can't get close to 2% without tightening more.

Josh Brown said the Fed seems more focused on wages than number of people employed, which Brown thinks is "the right strategy." Brown suggested a lot of tech folks making $300,000-$600,000 were getting let go while folks making $15 an hour are getting hired.

How do we get this job?

On Tuesday's (2/7) Halftime Report, Liz Young stated, "I would be shocked if the bond market was sending signals that just weren't correct."

Jenny Harrington said she's not sure the 517,000 jobs number is "real." If it's right, it means we're in the middle of a "soft landing." But "I think Steve Weiss is right, I think that wall is very, very far away," Jenny said, a strange analogy that unfortunately didn't work either time Weiss or Jenny brought it up.

Jenny took issue with Liz's assertion about bond market signals, suggesting everything is so anticipated now that maybe the market being down 26% was already anticipating the yield curve. "This isn't our parents' market" or even "the market of 10 years ago," Jenny claimed.

Weiss backed ATVI and said the FTC is "against all mergers" as "Lina Khan has proved to be a true socialist."

Josh Brown affirmed that long UBER is the "highest conviction" he's got right now. Jenny Harrington agreed that UBER is an attractive stock and pointed out as Brad Gerstner has that its competitors no longer are getting free money.

Josh Brown said Jenny "crushed" a recent JBLU bull call, and, something this page instantly envied, got to hand Jenny Valentine's flowers on the set. Judge admitted, "I did not know that that was planned by the way."

Josh called BRK-B "undervalued." Jenny reiterated the bull case for FL and curiously said that in a dividend strategy, she might have to sell it if the price gets too high and the yield too low.

Fed tightening will be felt ‘in the 2nd half’ but they’ve still gotta go not just all the way to California but to China

Early on Tuesday's (2/7) Halftime Report, Steve Liesman told Judge he doesn't think Jay Powell was "all that dovish" last week, though he did use the term "disinflation."

"Well he used it like 15 times," Judge said.

Steve pointed to the 2-year; "that's really the story."

Josh Brown said, "We don't need another 10% rally in the S&P. What we really need, Judge, is a little bit of stability now that we're coming through earnings season."

Jenny Harrington offered, "In the past 13 months, 13 months and a week, the market's down 12%. ... If you zoom out, I'm gonna say, the stock- like the stock market's shockingly stable. To only be down 12%."

"My headline is, 'The market's detached from reality,'" said Steve Weiss, saying Fed tightening is still in "early innings" and will be felt "in the 2nd half."

Weiss actually claimed NFLX is "still 90% off its high" and SHOP is "250% off its high." Josh Brown pointed out a stock can't be "250% off its high," causing Jenny to laugh, which is always cute. Weiss admitted to Josh, "You're absolutely right, it's not negative, I meant, it's gotta go up another 250% to get to its prior high."

Liz Young said the stock market seems to think inflation's going to keep going down in a "straight line" until reaching target, but that's "not the reality."

Joe touts MRNA; Judge wonders why it isn’t in the JOET; Joe says he’ll think about it in about 3 months

On Monday's (2/6) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova, mentioning the word "momentum" about 15 times, stated, "There are a significant amount of investment dollars that follow the factor of momentum. Momentum as a factor is not present in the market. It has not been present in the market since February of 2021."

Joe said we need "several more quarters" to confirm the return of "momentum."

Sarat Sethi said he's found "momentum" added to GSK, partly because it's been "unloved" for a long time. Stephanie Link is underweight health care and thinks you have to be "more selective" in 2023.

Joe called MRNA a "very low risk" trade at this level. But it's not in the JOET; it was "liquidated" in October. Judge wondered why it's not in there now; "sounds like you like it." Joe said he'd "address it" (snicker) in April rebalancing. (What is he going to do, give a speech, like how they vote on guys for the Pro Football Hall of Fame?)

Even though he owns PYPL, Sarat Sethi says it's a "no-man's-land stock." He said it's "in a great place in payments." Judge said "it doesn't sound like you have a whole lot of conviction behind this one."

But Sarat said DEO is in a "sweet spot."

Stephanie Link (pro-Peltz) and Sarat Sethi (pro-Iger) took opposite sides of the DIS management debate. Judge said Disney's issues are "much broader" than spending a "boatload" on streaming.

Sarat also owns UBER. He said investors will hold its feet to the fire over being cash-flow positive. Judge said Brad Gerstner tweeted that UBER should be in a "winner take most" situation. Joe said what stands out to him is the downgrade of LYFT, which Joe said is "losing significant market share" and is a "potential M&A candidate."

Maybe only ‘barely’ open, but the balloon factories obviously are operating in high gear

On Monday's (2/6) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova said there's an "introduction (snicker) of geopolitical tensions" (because it was all hunky-dory prior to last week) that's causing "hesitation" in the market.

Joe said Powell will "remain overly hawkish." But Judge cut in, "He wasn't overly hawkish." Joe curiously said, "He wasn't hawkish enough." (And Who's on first ...)

Judge said, along with Powell's "demeanor" (might as well be talking about John Chambers' "tone"), it was a "dovish" message.

Judge asked the rest of the group if we've gone from hard landing to soft landing to no landing.

Sarat Sethi said you can still make money even if the market isn't going up. "The S&P for the next 6 months is going to be in a range," Sarat predicted.

Judge said the Morgan Stanley guy sees "no evidence" of a new bull market. (Whatever he does see evidence of, Judge didn't question.)

"Not sure what gets us back to the October low," said Joe, who asserted the probability of a retest is "very low."

"I am not overwhelmingly bullish," Joe declared, though he expects the first half of 2023 to be "much better" than consensus forecasts.

Joe and Judge indicated that China has already reopened, and according to Joe, it's "priced in" to the market. Stephanie Link said "no, no, absolutely not," that China is only "barely reopen."

David Tepper’s ‘leaning short’ call on Dec. 22 is early front-runner for Bust of the Year (while Brad Gerstner makes early case for Call of the Year)

Last year, Jenny Harrington's well-entrenched stock market strategy (it's basically "don't buy high-P.E. tech stocks," even though Jenny occasionally touts kinda doing that with a few names) proved so timely, this page nearly awarded Jenny Call of the Year (see below, early January).

This year, already, is another story, as we're starting to think Brad Gerstner's euphoria this week could mark a Ricky-Sandler-in-March-2020 type of moment.

On Friday's (2/3) Halftime Report, Jenny was downplaying the robust start to the year in tech stocks and suggesting some sort of cap may already be in.

"Why not just think of them as plateauing from here," Jenny said, adding, "I don't really know if Gerstner's right or not," but "I don't wanna play in that sandbox" because there's "too much risk" of tech NOT having a tailwind.

Jenny then rattled off about 8 names from her disciplined growth strategy that purportedly aren't in the "megacap sandbox" but have been doing great (2 of those were DIS and UBER ... another was JBLU).

Judge said megacap tech stocks are "looking for more reasons to go up than down." Jenny insisted this is a "different year" than the previous decade + 2020 + 2021 when tech ruled, and you "don't have to be in that trade." (Actually, it sounds like she's saying it's the "same year" as 2022.) (News flash: So far, it's not.)

Steve Weiss again stressed how "ridiculous" he finds META's gain after Wednesday's report.

Weiss says ‘bulls---’ on national TV

Evidently, censors give CNBC's live programming a little leeway.

On Friday's (2/3) Halftime Report, NVDA came up, and Jason Snipe said the stock's price action is "crazy" but, then again, the company's "in a space where no others are."

Steve Weiss said NVDA has a 92 multiple (the screen said something different, but it might've been different time frames); Jenny Harrington and Weiss agreed it should be 34.

"90% of all AI applications fail, or they're bulls---," Weiss said.

Judge did not initially point out Weiss' comment and, sticking to business, said Weiss' argument doesn't mean everyone buying NVDA is a "fool." Weiss said it's "foolish" to buy it now.

A moment or two later, Judge noted what Weiss had said, claiming, "he didn't even realize that he did it."

(Note: Some folks may wonder whether CNBC can be fined for airing Weiss' word. This is an interesting subject. Evidently, the Supreme Court in 2012 threw out FCC fines against broadcasters for profanity under the rationale that the broadcasters could not have known in advance that the profanity would occur. That would seem to apply in this situation.

The guess here — and it's strictly a guess, as we barely can understand the CNBC ticker, let alone FCC rules — is that FCC fines are driven by the magnitude of complaints. According to the FCC website ... and here's some serious gray area ... the criteria is "patently offensive as measured by contemporary community standards."

The FCC says potential punishment depends on explicitness, whether the material "dwells on or repeats" something offensive, and whether it "shocks the audience."

Those guidelines would seem to leave Weiss in the clear. This page did not file a complaint. Given the Supreme Court ruling of 2012, it would seem that FCC fines or sanctions levied against any alleged indecent or profane programming could be fought in court, quite possibly successfully, and thus the agency is only likely to pursue what the general public may believe are the most outrageous examples.)

Meanwhile, some are thinking the retest theory is bunk. "How does the market go back to the October lows," asked Joe Terranova, questioning the "thesis" that claimed it would.

Grandpa Break the Back (cont’d)

Richard Fisher on Friday's (2/3) Halftime Report seemed eager to cast doubts on those (such as Jeffrey Gundlach, though Fisher didn't mention Jeffrey) sensing a kinder, gentler Fed.

Fisher insisted, "So far they've been looking at the right thing," in terms of employment. Then Fisher asserted that the inflation battle for Powell is "deep in his craw," so he sees a "real possibility" of a terminal rate beyond 5%.

Fisher predicted a "couple more quarter points to go." Judge asked if the market's "getting it wrong." Fisher said "so far," the market's getting it wrong.

Evidently, the famous sample size of 1 (highlighted in the movie "Licorice Pizza") continues to cast a pall for some reason over the Federal Reserve. "One of the things that's beaten into you is don't make the mistake of the 1970s," Fisher said, explaining that Paul Volcker vanquished all the inflation in the 2000s and 2010s by raising rates a couple times in 1982 the Federal Reserve believes the "worst thing that can happen" is to "stop early" and have inflation "not come down sufficiently."

That's an interesting quote ... the "worst thing that can happen" to the American economy is ... elevated Big Mac prices?

Fisher said "there's no way on earth" that Powell wants to "look like an Arthur Burns" (as if any more than 0.5% of America knows who that is).

The ‘collective you’

Steve Weiss on Friday's (2/3) Halftime Report had his own take on the Labor Department report.

Weiss said he noticed that the labor participation rate increased, and when you take the new jobs plus the "muted wage growth," it's "very positive for the bullish scenario."

But "without a doubt," he thinks the market is "overvalued," citing NVDA's 92 multiple.

Judge jabbed Weiss for buying QQQ.

"I'm not a hater; I'm a realist," Weiss explained.

Joe Terranova, who's been tripped up by Judge several times in the past week over Joe's tech-stock decisions (sorry, tech stock machinations by the JOET algorithm), conceded his Tuesday AAPL sale (personal and JOET) is "probably gonna look bad for the foreseeable future." Joe said he wanted "more of a low-beta (snicker) (2022) approach."

Joe acknowledged that "buy the dip is back."

Joe said Brad Gerstner is "actually right in reality right now." Judge said if Gerstner's right, why did Joe sell MSFT and AAPL. Joe said "it's not like I didn't go buy other things" or "shorted" those names. Judge said he meant the "collective you" (snicker) (it's not the "collective you" who sold AAPL; it's Joe), wondering why anyone would sell if they think Gerstner's right. Joe didn't really answer the question, stating he thinks "we already priced in a recession" and now we're seeing "a little bit of a rebuild" in multiples.

It was barely a week ago when everyone touted energy; now it’s tech

On Friday's (2/3) Halftime Report, Jenny Harrington said she's exchanging CVX in favor of PXD for a higher yield. (Hopefully it's not the same kind of yield as LUMN.) (See below.) (This writer has owned LUMN for a long time.)

But Joe Terranova (who didn't look straight ahead past Jenny this time) (see below) said the problem with energy stocks is that everyone is "overweight energy."

Joe said the JOET energy weighting is 10%, then offered this stark theory about what it would take to make energy stocks soar: "You need some form of a supply shock ... right here, right now."

"I totally disagree," Jenny protested, referring to oil. "I think that it can sit right here for the rest of the year, and these companies will mint cash."

Joe said he likes that theory, "but you used some critical words: if it sits right here. The problem is the trend recently ... let's say oil slips below 70 ... that's gonna lead to a little selling pressure."

Steve Weiss also flagged the notion of "even if oil stays at this price, they can still make money." Weiss said the issue is that the "stock price adjusts."

Jenny insisted we know "there is a supply-demand imbalance out there" and even said that at "$50 a barrel ... they're still incredibly profitable." Weiss said the valuation comes down then.

Weiss admitted his recent buy the dip in CVX was a "terrible trade."

Joe's not interested in F. Jenny would look at F under 11.

Jason Snipe said he still likes QCOM.

Jenny gave herself an "F-" on LUMN during a Grade My Trade from a viewer. Jenny said the stock should be worth a lot more than it is, but it isn't. A viewer said she bought it at $11 based on Jenny's "info." Rather than grade the viewer's trade, Jenny basically lamented that she was "forced to sell" because it's a dividend fund.

Jason still sees "runway" in PANW. Joe said TSCO has both momentum and quality. Weiss said he'd look to let VALE go.

The Board Challenge not mentioned during Brad Gerstner interview

On Thursday's (2/2) Halftime Report, Brad Gerstner talked about META, TSLA and NVDA.

But he didn't talk about any of those companies' boards.

He did, though, gush about META's quarter, stating that after this "age of excess," he's giving "credit where credit's due" for the company's "incredible (snicker) call."

"The headline of the call was Efficiency," Gerstner said. "The second headline of the call was AI."

Gerstner claimed Mark Zuckerberg has "made the place fun again" (snicker).

Gerstner said META has been "incredibly gracious" and "communicative" and, apparently referring to his "open letter" to Mark Zuckerberg, said someone on Twitter said "this is the type of activism that works in Silicon Valley." Gerstner said he's not "arrogant" enough to think he "charted the course" for META; rather it was management.

Judge asked Gerstner if he wanted to be a "pure activist" in META if that was possible. "Not a chance," Gerstner said. He said this performance "doubles my belief" in lining up with founder-led companies.

Gerstner said he was "blown away by the engagement on Facebook."

Also taking a victory lap was Rob Sechan, who Judge noted made META one of his Stock Summit (snicker) picks. (Remember, Joe picked MSFT.) Rob said it was his "Garth Brooks trade," the "Friends in Low Places Trade" (which doesn't really make any sense, but whatever). Rob said that previously, "it's clear that they took their eye off the ball" and instead of fixing it, they focused on the "expensive metaverse."

Rob mentioned the "pivot" (that's correct, the possible META pivot not the Federal Reserve pivot) and praised Mark Zuckerberg for focusing on "base hits instead of home runs."

Judge said when the numbers hit a day earlier, it was like "Holy you know what" when the shares moved.

Steve Weiss, though, said it seems like a company cutting capex by $10 billion is gaining $100 billion in market cap. "You can tell me how that makes sense," Weiss said.

In September 2020, Judge devoted an entire episode to Gerstner's fine initiative called The Board Challenge dedicated to diversifying corporate boards. Judge asked Gerstner follow-up questions that month about the Board Challenge, and Gerstner even said, "I'm glad you're calling me out about it." Since then, we've heard basically nothing. The Board Challenge website currently has a section listing "Recent Board Appointments"; those appointments were made in October 2020 and November 2020.

‘Party on’

Brad Gerstner on Thursday's (2/2) Halftime Report said "all of Silicon Valley" had been "intoxicated" by ZIRP.

"All of '22 felt catastrophic. But now we're largely through it," said Gerstner, who said the Fed used the word "deflation" actually "10 times yesterday."

Judge asked Steve Weiss if the Fed has "ostensibly" green-lighted the growth trade. Weiss, whose muffled voice could barely be understood, said that wasn't intended but that's what people got from it.

Weiss said valuations have actually increased to a P.E. over 18 while earnings have declined. But Weiss thinks the market can "keep going," and he's "added exposure."

Much later in the show, Weiss said that until the 2nd half of the year, when Fed actions "really start to take hold, I think it's party on."

Bryn Talkington said the Fed "definitely green-lit" the growth and high-beta trade. META is a "unique story" and "multiples do matter," Bryn said, and she expects a "dispersion of return within tech stocks" and not a "rising tide."

Gerstner's new buy is NVDA. He said "multiples are expanding off of their all-time lows" and crypto and gaming concerns "are largely behind us."

Gerstner questioned how other automakers can "make any money" when TSLA is dropping prices. Judge said "the debate is on" (snicker) (yeah, since about 10 years ago) as to whether TSLA "deserves" the multiple it's got. Rob Sechan questioned if we're in a place where "price doesn't matter" and wondered if high-multiple stocks are "incredibly vulnerable." Gerstner said it's a "fair point" and held up a sheet apparently showing multiples for tech stocks being much lower than people think. "We're not even back to the 10-year averages," Gerstner claimed. Moments later, he revisited those stats and said "we're not even close" to peak tech multiples.

Why does Joe own the components of the JOET in his personal account instead of just owning the JOET?

Judge opened Wednesday's (2/1) Halftime Report discussing the only thing that can steal the thunder from the Federal Reserve ... the rebalancing of the JOET.

Joe Terranova explained that AAPL is out because "it could not overcome the breakdown in the technicals."

Judge noted that Joe sold AAPL from his personal portfolio. "I'm gonna eat my own cooking," Joe said. (Which sounds to us like someone owning an S&P 500 fund and also owning all 500 stocks. But then again, we couldn't even figure out the plot in "Everything Everywhere All at Once," so take that for what it's worth.)

Joe insisted there is "zero momentum" in either direction for AAPL "whatsoever."

Kari Firestone said META was "way oversold" and was down "70% from its peak" in November (uh oh, that'll get Mel to wonder, DID IT DESERVE TO BE THAT HIGH????).

Joe mentioned that JOET sold META last year at $200 and sold AMZN at $135. (Which doesn't help anyone without a time machine.) "For people who don't believe that momentum is real, and it's a factor in the market ... there's something there that's real," Joe said. (That's where Judge failed to ask the obvious chicken-and-egg question; is the stock moving higher because of "momentum" ... or does the stock have "momentum" because it's moving higher?)

Joe predicted "the high-beta rally ... is going to continue after the press conference," which was a great call. (At least for a day.)

Joe praised Jeffrey Gundlach's calls of the last 45 days. "Everything he has said has been correct. And he is right."

But on Overtime, Jeffrey acknowledged to Judge that Jerome Powell didn't push back on the "pivot" narrative, as Gundlach had tweeted Powell would, but Jeffrey said there was something about Powell's "demeanor" that expresses "confidence" about where the Fed is, in fact, Jeffrey thought Powell might even use the term "Goldilocks."

"I didn't hear the word 'pain' at all today," Gundlach said.

But he said we've already gotten "a lot of return already" for the first half of this year.

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