CNBCfix - Fast Money Review

[CNBCfix Fast Money/Halftime Report Review Archive — September 2022]

Who is buying WYNN Jan. 77.50 calls for $5?

Friday's (9/30) Halftime Report wasn't exactly going to knock the "Mary Tyler Moore" Chuckles the Clown episode off the TV's Most Memorable List.

Joe Terranova got things rolling with a stark statistic: "During the quarter, we were actually up 14% at one point. We have not in the last 80 years had a quarter where you were up by double digits and closed the quarter negative."

Joe in the 14th minute mentioned the QQQs (Zzzzzzzzz) and said the current S&P range is "tradeable" up into 3,735.

Judge said Marko Kolanovic, in a note that "just dropped," is now concerned about a "policy error."

Judge asked Steve Weiss if Kolanovic is "one of the last bulls standing, throwing in the towel." Weiss said "No not at all," though it's "somewhat encouraging to see." Weiss went on to hail David Tepper calling a bottom after the 2008 crisis and assert there's "no playbook" for this economic situation.

Judge said Weiss "didn't really address the issues in the Kolanovic note which I asked you about" (which wasn't really true) and asked Weiss about potential policy mistakes. Weiss said, "I can't be more negative."

Rob Sechan bluntly shrugged, "It has to get worse before it gets better."

Bryn Talkington said she bought WYNN "around 66" and sold Jan. 77.50 calls and "collected $5 of premium income" in anticipation of Macau reopening and because Oct. 16 is "the big election in China."

Stephanie Link said NKE was overpunished on Friday. Judge said maybe the bad is bigger than the good with the stock. Stephanie conceded the stock is "probably dead money" in the short term.

Weiss said MRNA, like all his positions, is "significantly cut back," and it's been a dreadful 2 years for health care. Joe said he's "got my eye on Intuitive Surgical." Judge said "everybody seems to like" ABBV.

Joe said there's "every fundamental reason" to own energy. Judge countered, "Other than a slowing global economy."

On Thursday's (9/29) even quieter show, Weiss finally threw in the towel on this automotive trade(s) he's been trumpeting forever, Volkswagen and Porsche. He said he started selling this week. "I was right on the company analysis and just dead wrong on the stock analysis. And the stock analysis is what matters," Weiss said.

Jon Najarian appears on Worldwide Exchange with Frank Holland at 5:30 a.m. Eastern, calls oil and gas plays ‘pretty tasty’

We almost missed it.

But we didn't.

Very early Wednesday (9/28) morning, CNBC viewers caught a rare (these days) appearance by Jon Najarian on Worldwide Exchange, guest-hosted by Frank Holland, as Sully is now doing the regular host gig for The Exchange in Kelly's absence.

Doc, whose voice was a little scratchy, told Frank, "Going into the winter, and with China reopening, I think oil and gas plays are pretty tasty at this level. This would be one of the areas of the economy I'd really go into in a bigger way right now."

Najarian in the screen text was listed as both "CNBC contributor" and "Market Rebellion co-founder." As readers of this page know (see below), neither Jon Najarian nor Pete Najarian has appeared with Scott Wapner on an episode of the Halftime Report since July 7 because of a dispute or issue related to disclosures and perhaps because of an awkward interview between Jon Najarian and Wapner on July 7. Jon Najarian made one Halftime appearance, Sept. 9, with guest host Dom Chu. Evidently — based on Jon Najarian's recent appearances and tweets — Jon Najarian has the green light to appear on at least some CNBC programs and is willing to do so; Pete Najarian — either by his choice or CNBC's — has not agreed to terms for appearing. Both Najarians remain listed as contributors on CNBC.com, and Pete Najarian's Twitter handle includes "Star of @CNBC's Halftime Report.

Joe says he’d ‘drop everything’ for lunch with Stan Druckenmiller

Stanley Druckenmiller evidently gets the drill.

When news organizations such as CNBC host conferences, they are looking for soundbite headlines.

Stan gave them one Wednesday (9/28) prior to the airing of the Halftime Report when he said he'll be "stunned" if there's not a recession in 2023, and one probably bigger than an "average garden variety" recession.

Judge also said Stan said "The Dow won't be much higher in 10 years."

Joe Terranova said Stan's a legend, and, "If I got a lunch invitation from him tomorrow, I'd drop everything to go."

Nevertheless, "I'm not afraid of the next 10 years being flat," Joe said, explaining there are still ways he can "generate alpha."

Nobody on Wednesday’s show talks about cutting Jay Powell ‘some slack’ (maybe it’s those FINRA rules)

Jim Chanos, the star guest of Wednesday's (9/28) Halftime Report, came straight from the sidelines of Delivering Alpha just before delivering a presentation.

Chanos said there's a lot of business models "struggling" at 2-3% that "really don't work at 5 and 6%."

He said he's "still short" COIN but is less short of ZM than he used to be. He said tech investors will have to take note of Zoom's buybacks.

In general, "An awful lot of these business models are based on, on fantasy earnings," Chanos said.

As far as the Federal Reserve and inflation, "The problem I have with all of this is that by taking rates to 4%, we seem to be running the risk of breaking the economy," Chanos said.

We don't know what Chanos was planning to talk about at Delivering Alpha, but he wasn't exactly chock-full of headline soundbites on Wednesday.

Wonder if the characters in the QQQ or Capital Group ETF commercials make appearances at Delivering Alpha

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (9/28) Halftime Report said Apple's issue is a "classic stress test" for the stock market, but the market is handling it "really well."

"The weakening demand is coming from a lower-priced phone," Joe explained.

"Today we're getting bailed out from the BOE," Stephanie Link said.

Sarat Sethi pointed out that if you live in Europe and Asia, Apple's phone costs 10-15% more than just 6 months ago.

Joe said maybe the June low that matters most is the 129 for AAPL.

Sarat said GM is "one of those cyclical stocks that nobody wants to own," but when it turns, "you're gonna get a double from here."

Joe bought SGEN and pointed out it had traded at 185. (And if Melissa Lee had been the host, she would've said, "Maybe it didn't DESERVE to be 185!!!!")

Brian Belski says investment pros licensed by FINRA ‘can’t say’ the type of ‘charged’ Fed critique that Jeremy Siegel delivered

Our expectations for Tuesday's (9/27) Halftime Report were kinda low. But the show was actually kinda good.

The topic was hardly "which stocks you should buy" but "what the Federal Reserve is doing wrong." That latter topic has been beaten to death. But some articulate commentary was delivered on Tuesday.

Judge said "this whole thing" about rate hikes "came to a head" last Friday when Jeremy Siegel complained about the Fed approach.

Josh Brown called the Fed's machinations this year "a complete circus" and called Jay Powell an "attorney" and questioned, "He's gonna sit in a room and figure out how many truck drivers and nurses need to lose their jobs before he's happy with-?"

Judge said if Powell were an academic, "The criticism on the other side would be, 'Oh he's tanking the market; he doesn't understand the markets.'"

Jim Lebenthal said Judge couldn't reshow all of the Siegel comments but that Siegel also "pointed out that the Fed has been consistently wrong."

Mike Farr, though, said Jay Powell is concerned we're entering one of those "runaway inflationary stages" (snicker) and has an "awfully tough job" and so Farr is "willing to cut the guy some slack."

Brian Belski, the day's star guest, conceded it's been a terrible year in the markets and said he "simply did not know and understand" that investors would be "this vehement" entering Q4.

In a bit of a revelation, Belski said Jeremy Siegel's commentary was "amazing" and that "it's a lot of things that we can't say, uh, in the public domain because we're licensed, and, uh, from FINRA and all that kind of stuff, we can't be that, that charged on that."

Judge at one point said of the Fed, "Some would suggest no matter what they do, they can't deal with, with the, where inflation is the worst, at all." (Some others of us would suggest that the central bank has curious "mandates" and is chasing an effect of something and not a cause of something.)

Josh Brown asked Belski a great question, whether price hikes could "stick" while underlying business costs fall, which could keep margins elevated. Belski said that theory is "spot on."

Brown said at the top of the show there's "confirmation in the internals" that stocks are going lower.

Judge said he's working on some questions for Ken Griffin at Delivering Alpha.

Pete Najarian off the air for nearly 3 months, apparently over issue that could still be resolved

There's a famous saying — or, if it's not famous, it should be — that goes, "This is what happens in a bear market."

Pete Najarian's Twitter profile still says "Star of @CNBC's Halftime Report."

But we all know that's not really the case.

At least, it hasn't been since early July.

Likewise, Jon Najarian has made a grand total of 1 appearances since July 7, which was the day Jon was asked by "Judge" Scott Wapner about the investment by Market Rebellion (that's the Najarians' company) in Voyager Digital. Wapner asked Najarian if Market Rebellion was paid fees for referrals by Voyager. Najarian said, "I can't comment on that right now."

There was another angle that might've been more telling, as Najarian was asked whether he was a "partner" of Voyager, as, according to Wapner, Steve Ehrlich apparently said. Najarian said he's "never been a partner."

This page has learned that there has been, and apparently still is, a disclosure issue or dispute, likely related to this July 7 exchange but not necessarily because of it and not necessarily related to the financial disclosures that are shown on TV or online, that is behind this remarkable TV hiatus.

Pete Najarian, unlike Jon, is a panelist on Fast Money, as well as the Halftime Report. His bio still appears on CNBC's portal for both shows. It last shows stock disclosures on July 8. (Curiously, these bios for Fast Money include daily stock disclosures, not necessarily recent, while bios for Halftime Report do not.) This page does not have a record of Pete Najarian being asked on-air about Market Rebellion's ties to Voyager, but contributors (especially those on 2 programs) can deliver soundbites almost any time of day on CNBC, and it's possible it came up during one of Pete's appearances.

Since July 7, Jon Najarian has appeared on the Halftime Report once — on Sept. 9. The guest host that day was Dom Chu. Najarian's company was not mentioned in the opening introductions, and Chu did not call on Najarian until 17 minutes into the program in what has to be considered a quiet appearance.

And Jon Najarian hasn't been on the show since.

This page is also aware that the introductions on CNBC programs — in general — are not contractually obligated. In other words, if Scott Wapner says "Jane Doe of XYZ Company" is on the show that day, Wapner (and other hosts) are simply including the "of XYZ Company" as a courtesy.

Whenever the Najarians used to appear on the program, they were regularly introduced as "co-founder of MarketRebellion.com." Most panelists are introduced by Wapner with no business affiliation.

The fact Chu did not mention Market Rebellion on Sept. 9 indicates either 1) He wasn't asked to say it, or 2) CNBC has decided it doesn't want it mentioned. If the latter, note that CNBC evidently did not have an issue displaying the company name on screen on 9/9 multiple times.

Apparently, each Najarian has handled this situation differently. While Jon reappeared Sept. 9, he tweeted that day (above the headline here) that he's "Not sure if or when" Pete will be back on CNBC.

And it's likely significant that the Sept. 9 episode was guest-hosted and Scott Wapner was not present.

This page does not know if there may be any issues between Wapner and the Najarians, over Voyager or anything else. We only know what we've seen, and haven't seen, on TV.

Last we heard, this situation is still in flux. And this may be our working theory: Questions were asked about Market Rebellion in July, on-air and afterwards. While those questions were discussed, the Najarians were not invited back to the show. At some point, amid discussions, Jon Najarian received and accepted an invite while Pete Najarian has not. That invite possibly occurred without the endorsement of Scott Wapner, who has not had either Najarian on a show he has hosted since early July. And there is a chance that this hiatus — admittedly, growing longer, especially in TV timelines, by the day — proves only temporary, as CNBC has not scrubbed the Najarians' profiles and Jon Najarian, as recently as Friday 9/23, is still saying the brothers "Pop on @CNBC here and there," though there isn't really recent evidence of that.

The status of the Najarians is probably one of the biggest immediate issues for new CNBC chief KC Sullivan. Sullivan took over from Mark Hoffman on Sept. 12. Sullivan's title is president; Hoffman's was chairman. The guess here — just a guess — is that Sullivan upon taking office had this situation handed to him, and he is taking time to review it.

It's also possible that CNBC has essentially made a decision and is waiting for this situation to quietly go away. No announcements, no scrubbing of web bios, nothing official. Wait to see whether Options Action sponsors complain or whether enough viewers demand the return of the brothers. The channel in the past has cut ties with a few other contributors (no need to bring those up here) over various issues. But most tend to stay forever unless Fox Biz gives them a better offer. The Najarians are popular CNBC figures. But we're going on nearly 3 months, and people still watch the channel. Maria Bartiromo left. People still watch it.

In their 15 years on the channel, the Najarians have given a boost to CNBC. Each is among the channel's most articulate, reasonable voices. Jon is more outspoken about politics and non-market subjects. Pete is extremely measured, always the same terminology, and rarely veers away from his planned commentary on options or stocks. Both bring a rare enthusiasm to their once-daily appearances — an enthusiasm for the markets in general, whether their call is bullish or bearish. This page has criticized what has long appeared to be the Najarians' meal ticket, the suggestion of "following" big buyers into option trades detected by the Najarians' software. That said, there are many viewers who look forward to this information.

Like most CNBC contributors, the Najarians have a "regular job." They've been attached over the last 15 years to various business entities that are mentioned on CNBC. On that, this page has no opinion. A lot of contributors can or do turn their CNBC celebrity status into speaking engagements, conferences, general client-roster-building. Viewers may not always realize that contributors might be making money not so much from stock and bond calls but things like referrals, appearances, books, commentary. And if something possibly goes wrong in those other realms, and if people hired to perform certain tasks end up making news in other activities, it might prompt questions from other employers.

Like we said, these are the kinds of things that happen in bear markets.

On Monday's (9/26) Halftime Report, guest hosted by Dom Chu, Bryn Talkington said people in the first 7 months of 2022 thought the Fed was "kidding."

"Now we know they are not kidding," Bryn said.

Jeremy Siegel questions the caliber of questions that are asked of Jerome Powell (presumably that includes the clunky 2-parter from Steve Liesman about factoring in variable lags (seriously))

The star guest of Friday's (9/23) Halftime Report delivered — presumably because a lot of viewers share the same opinion.

Jeremy Siegel told Judge it's "very amusing" that a year ago amid "booming" housing and commodity prices, Fed members said they saw "no need" to raise rates in 2022; now that those prices are going down, the Fed has to "stay tight" through 2023.

"It makes absolutely no sense to me whatsoever," Siegel said.

"The inflation has basically stopped," Siegel asserted.

But while complaints about the Federal Reserve are a daily staple of business television, complaints about business media are not.

Siegel said that at this week's press conference, no one asked Powell, "How do we have 3.2 million new workers and GDP going down. ... There were no hard questions. There were 50 reporters there. I don't know, they basically said, you know, repeat the statement you made at the beginning."

He's mostly right about that. We actually listened to the whole event. (Jeanna Smialek of the N.Y. Times got the first question, it was rather underwhelming.)

Someone could've just asked "Yes or no: A lot of people are p----- off, so we've gotta put some folks out of work to make Big Macs 50 cents cheaper."

Anyway, Siegel said Fed officials are suddenly saying "We're gonna be real tough guys until we crush the economy."

"Poor monetary policy would be an understatement," Jeremy concluded.

So we had to ask — no one in particular — exactly why Jeremy is outraged by these people.

If he thinks the economy is being ruined, we're not seeing that yet. As Josh Brown put it the other day, all this jawboning and hiking hasn't lowered prices. Nor has it caused the Great Depression II (see Judge's comment below). Yes, it's obnoxious hearing this Fed commentary every day, but we're not sure they've ruined anything yet, other than short-term stock charts.

If, on the other hand, Siegel is angry about the stock market, we get that. This endless cycle of threats of causing recession, driving everyone's net worth down, for not the greatest of reasons (stopping people from offering 50% more for a house that just appeared on the Realtor listings that the buyers haven't even seen yet), was getting old by about March, and now we're nearly into October.

But that's the kind of nonsense that happens in a free market. Like Rodney Dangerfield says in "Caddyshack," "They're all selling? Then buy, buy, buy!"

Later in the program, Jenny Harrington insisted on commenting on Jeremy's remarks.

"Everybody's rotten at forecasting," Jenny explained, so Siegel is right that the Fed is rotten too.

Then, Jenny added, "This whole business is predicated on fuzzy math and rotten forecasts," but the "effort" to make better calls "propels this stock market to greater and greater heights over the long term."

That's a bit of a strange one.

Judge said Siegel made an "epic rant."

Mark Fisher later on Overtime suggested Siegel's rant "could've been a tradeable bottom."

Fish: ‘We have to stop beating up the middle class’

Mark Fisher, star guest of Friday's (9/23) Overtime, said, "We need to manage the supply crisis. The only way inflation comes down in the long run is if we go ahead and create more energy, better food, more housing and lower health insurance costs."

Drawing an analogy to treating blood pressure by 1) medication or 2) losing weight, Fish warned that "the minute the Fed lightens up," the blood pressure will go back up, but if you lose 25 pounds, "your blood pressure doesn't go back up."

So Fish says the long-term solution is "stimulating supply."

Well, that's true. But that's the job of a free market, not a central bank whose real mandate is simply making sure banks have enough money to open every day (even if they should've been calling Mary Barra in early 2020 and suggesting she actually build some cars).

But later, Fish actually said, "Congress has to control supply." Nancy Pelosi is going to distribute our Chicken McNuggets?

How come Jay Powell wasn’t asked when the Najarians will return to CNBC?

In a statement that really goes a long way toward explaining the central bank's financial circus, Judge on Friday's (9/23) Halftime Report said the problem is that the economy is "too strong" and "too healthy," which is why the Fed is bringing a "hammer."

The economy is so healthy, we need a hammer to smash it.

That's quite a mandate.

Joe Terranova, who also got a seat at the NYSE for Overtime, resulting in a bit too much exposure, said "There was a dynamic (snicker) shift" from Jay Powell's remarks this week, "now I think you have to call into question earnings."

Joe, who sold Uber, said Friday is a "classic liquidation day." Then on Overtime, he said Friday's closing market activity was "indicative of a little bit of a liquidation feel," but by no means is it an "all clear."

So they're liquidating — but maybe doing more liquidating.

Or something like that.

Grandpa Steve Weiss, who's always bearish when the market's down and always finding trading opportunities when the market's up, said, "To me, buying a stock here is like running into a burning house and hoping the fire department comes and saves you before you turn into barbecue."

Weiss, like Mark Fisher later, called the U.K. news "just astonishing. ... They're fueling the fire."

Judge noted Weiss talks about "this GOAT and that GOAT," but "give me a number" for an S&P buy level. Weiss responded, "I can't give you a number, because I don't- it's driven by circumstance."

‘I’m actually having fun’

Jenny Harrington on Friday's (9/23) Halftime Report said the "median multiple" of the S&P 500 is 14.3, which suggests there's "already been tremendous pain delivered."

Jenny said "we could have a nice little rally," and "I think the worst is probably over," and, incredibly with a straight face, "I'm actually having fun."

Jenny said Brad Gerstner's META case was a "very strong bull case" that Jenny can't outdo. Judge countered that "he didn't make a, an exceptionally strong argument about META, he, he actually professed his exasperation about it, for the first time maybe ever. ... He put them on notice." Jenny said she interpreted it as Gerstner predicting "significant money" in the stock by holding for the long term.

The Fed chief tells us how we ‘get rid of’ inflation

Before we get to Thursday's (9/22) Halftime Report (see below), we'd like to note a comment by Jerome Powell Wednesday afternoon after the Federal Reserve interest-rate move was announced.

"So how do we get rid of inflation," Powell was heard to say. "It would be nice if there were, you know, a way to just wish it away, but there isn't. Um, we have to get supply and demand back into alignment. And the way we do that is by slowing the economy."

That's an interesting word. "Alignment."

It seems like a one-way "alignment."

You know, like rather than increasing supply, they're simply decreasing demand and calling it good.

This exercise in curing an effect of a problem rather than the problem drew this comment that day from Gary Cohn, on Closing Bell with Sara Eisen: "I don't know how we stop having job openings ... we're gonna have to really crush demand."

No Najarians since Sept. 9

On Thursday's (9/22) Halftime Report, Josh Brown was noting how far some of his recent buys have come down in 2022.

Brown said he bought NFLX as part of a "barbell" approach, which is basically buying stuff that's been "killed" and other stuff that's "holding up really well."

He put NFLX in the latter category despite noting it was "$700, uh, not that long ago."

Brown also bought the SMH because "it's cut in half already." He said the SMH can go lower, but "I don't care" (yeah right).

Steve Weiss though said, "Saying where stocks come from and using that as justification to buy is ludicrous."

Brown fired back that when NFLX was at $700, it was 65 times forward earnings, now it's 20. "There's a huge difference" between those levels, Brown said.

Meanwhile, Jim Lebenthal has reduced his S&P target from 4,800 to 4,279 (snicker). Jim cited "lack of a banking crisis" as one reason he hasn't turned bearish.

So Weiss told Jim, "you've just marked to market your price target." Weiss also said, "I had dinner last night with the GOAT." (That's David Tepper. His football team isn't the GOAT.)

Judge actually said "b.s." in regard to Weiss' claim that he doesn't opine on other people's investing styles.

Still waiting for the face-ripper

On Thursday's (9/22) Najarian-lite Halftime Report, Richard Fisher actually said with a straight face, "I know for certain Mr. Powell and the committee could (sic meant 'couldn't') care less what the politicians say."

Um, you sure about that?

Steve Weiss insisted to fellow panelists that Jay Powell was saying "I really mean it" and "we're gonna cut jobs, essentially." Why does a grown man need to tell other grownups "I really mean it." If they're too dumb to figure it out, isn't that their own fault? And if he really does "mean it" and the lack of grownups not recognizing that he means it is going to sink the economy, then aren't we all in a world of hurt anyway?

Fisher said the difference in multiples such as NFLX's a year ago and now is that "Money's not free anymore."

Jim Lebenthal said (for the 2nd time on the show), "There isn't a banking crisis right now."

Josh Brown bought VNQ and touted real estate. Kari Firestone said, "It's definitely bold, Josh." Steve Weiss and Josh clashed over whether Brown is "unaware" of the impact of leverage in the real-estate space, and Weiss cited ProLogis' AMZN connections.

On Tuesday (9/20), Josh Brown reaffirmed he thinks the market is "set up" for a "face-ripping rally," which would seem to imply that we're at high level of fear and nearing a "big whoosh down," but Brown evidently doesn't see the big whoosh, stating, "I just don't think the market has enough fear in it" to get to the same levels as mid-June.

‘Much of what I saw for this year, uh, is and has come to pass’

The lede headline Monday (9/19) didn't come from the (once-again-Najarian-less) Halftime Report but Overtime, which Judge opened with Josh Brown on the Fast Line (that's what they originally called it for anyone who dialed in to Fast Money) to discuss Brown's afternoon note that, because of the VIX and bond yields, we could be getting a "rip-your-face-off rally brewing into, after, the FOMC."

We haven't heard "face ripped off" for a long time; it's one of our favorite CNBC/Wall Street terms.

But an hour later, Karen Finerman on the 5 p.m. Fast Money suggested that positioning ahead of Fed meetings is like a "game of dodgeball."

And earlier in the day on Halftime, Joe Terranova reiterated that "the market is in a perilous position ... universally, everyone knows the lows from June are in jeopardy," and Liz Young said she doesn't know if we touch the June low, but "we should consider it a strong possibility."

Make of all that what you will. (JUST DON'T YOU DARE SAY "PIVOT." THAT MAKES ALL THESE 49-48 CONFIRMEES MAD.)

Joe said we can "fully expect" 75 basis points.

"It almost matters more what you get after it," Judge suggested.

To that, Joe said, "I almost wish there wasn't a press conference."

Kevin O'Leary actually said of Jay Powell with a straight face, "He can't take his foot off the hawkish gas pedal."

Those who really want to know what's going to happen may take a cue from Greg Branch, who claimed that in January, with the S&P at 4,700, he was "out on a limb" declaring that "true value is 3,800."

"But," Branch actually told Judge, "much of what I saw for this year, uh, is and has come to pass."

"I'm just not a buyer here," Branch added.

‘I’m not sure I would say anything about bitcoin is safe’

We've noticed that Jim Cramer's Investing Club has seemed to attract less and less CNBC promo attention as this miserable bear market drags on.

But for those hoping for a tip, Judge on Monday's (9/19) Halftime Report noted Jim told him on Overtime Friday that "You really don't want to be in tech right now, that it's susceptible."

"In this country, we do not have enough housing," said Kevin O'Leary, stating that a bull call on homeowners amid rising mortgage rates is a "gutsy" call.

O'Leary, who had a good show despite the fact this page probably disagrees with his endlessly-hawkish prediction for the Federal Reserve, hilariously said an activist would've stopped ADBE from buying Figma at a "dot-com price" and the company would've "never blown their brains out" on this acquisition.

Joe Terranova mentioned LPX, which used to be a name he mentioned often (along with "Palo Alto"), as a "great 2nd derivative" play on housing's recovery, whenever it happens.

The sound connection with Shannon Saccocia was pretty muffled throughout the program.

As the Halftime Report transitioned to The Exchange, Sully called Scott Minerd's 20% market drop call a "famous prediction" (snicker).

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, guest host Sara Eisen and Tim Seymour talked about the Cincinnati Bengals, prompting Sara to concede, "They're having a terrible season so far."

Brian Kelly actually said, "I'm not sure I would say anything about bitcoin is safe."

Another week, No Doc

After a couple months away, Jon Najarian appeared on CNBC's Halftime Report on Friday, Sept. 9.

Anyone who was thinking it might be the restart of a trend may be having their hopes dashed.

Najarian didn't surface last week.

Given that 1) the 9/9 show had a guest host and 2) Najarian wasn't called on until 17 minutes in and 3) Najarian's company was never mentioned and 4) Najarian seems more preoccupied these days with streaming stuff related to his company ... it could just be that the CNBC-Najarian relationship might be a little more ... distant ... than it used to be.

Pete Najarian hasn't been heard on CNBC since early July. That's an ice age in television.

Don’t you DARE say ‘pivot’ around this man!!!!!

Isn’t it interesting, the truths you sometimes hear on TV.

On Thursday's (9/15) Halftime Report, Josh Brown actually said of the Federal Reserve what Judge has never had the brass to say: "They have not actually been able to, uh, impact prices."

And isn't that the whole point?

If the answer to the "How high should interest rates be?" question is "Whatever makes the ribeyes at Hunt & Fish Club cost less" ... and the ribeyes at Hunt & Fish Club, after several months of this raising/jawboning, still cost more than people prefer ... then do we need 200 basis points in between meetings?

Brown noted that instead of lowering prices, the Fed this summer has "definitely been able to impact sentiment."

"They're not gonna say the quiet part out loud," Brown revealed. "Which is, they need like a million people to lose their jobs," because there are "huge social costs" to layoffs.

Apparently that's the Working Theory — inflation is so distasteful, we've got to put some folks out of work so that others can go back to getting their Chicken McNuggets 50 cents cheaper.

Brown shrugged that the summer stock rallies "remain countertrend," and, in a nod to Jenny Harrington, offered that "Dividend aristocrats is one of the best places to be hiding out."

Jenny stated, "I think what it all adds up to is ultimately just a very range-bound market." She said the market being down 20% is just "an ephemeral moment in time" (sic last 2 words redundant). Jenny touted AMBP as her Final Trade.

Al Michaels says ‘long-term investing’ is basically ‘Next Thursday’

Even though he's on the Jeff Bezos Network now, famed sportscaster Al Michaels gave Halftime Report viewers a treat Thursday (9/15) with a few thoughts on the stock market ahead of Amazon's first regular season Thursday night NFL game, between the Chiefs and Chargers. (CNBC voice Jim Birdsall is a Chiefs fan; we're not sure who, if anyone, in house likes the Chargers.)

Al's advice in this market? "No. 1, wear a blindfold. And No. 2, take all the cash I have, put it in cans, and bury it in my back yard. I'm scared to death," he said.

Josh Brown suggested Michaels take a look at 6% munis (Zzzzzzzzzz). Michaels called that advice "spot on."

But Al said, "Long-term investing? Next Thursday."

Judge said, "You and a lot of other people."

Al revealed that "they are dragging me Scott from the analog world into the digital world." He predicted a "great game" between the Chiefs and Chargers. (It really wasn't. It was decent. Not great.)

"We miss you in the family," Judge said.

Huntington Beach and Manhattan Beach aren’t the same thing

Brad Gerstner began his time on Thursday's (9/15) Halftime Report with not exactly some product endorsements.

Gerstner couldn't hear Judge at first, so he actually told Judge that it "sounded like" Zoom was having problems earlier in the day, and "Microsoft's products" weren't working for him."

"Bad day for Skype and Zoom," Gerstner said when he finally got connected.

Like other notable people recently, Gerstner offered, "I think the risk has shifted to, uh, the Fed perhaps overtightening, right."

Judge, in blue-tinted glasses, said Brad has been covering shorts. Brad nodded and said he saw "opportunities" to cover shorts "that were down 60, 70%."

Brad actually said people think of PTON as one of those stocks that will "go back to prior highs." But he touted RBLX.

Gerstner called META "universally hated" and noted it's "absent" from a Goldman Sachs conference in San Francisco this week. "The prevailing view is that the business model is dead, that Mark panicked last fall, he renamed the company, that he's running around with AR/VR glasses on, and their best days are behind them," Gerstner said.

But, "We're not selling the stock at 6 and a half times EBITDA," he added.

Brad said there's a lot of talk about TWTR at his "weekly poker game" and he was "pretty appalled" to see how Twitter has been managed.

Brad made the case for UBER that sounds a lot like the cases made for the past 3-4 years. The stock has been great this summer after a disastrous spring. (This writer has no position in UBER but recently did.)

"Snowflake has clearly emerged as a 4th cloud," Brad said. He said the stock is "fairly priced."

Brad congratulated Josh Brown on the conference "last week" (it was this week) and said he saw Judge's tweeted pictures that "looked like Manhattan Beach," though "I'm not sure you guys did any work."

Weiss says Jim is ‘seemingly a permabull’

Wednesday's (9/14) Halftime Report was a classic edition of what's become ... The Jim Lebenthal Show.

Because Judge (who wasn't on Wednesday's show) has somehow deemed it important for viewers to hear that the economy's better than everyone says and inflation has peaked and Cleveland Cliffs and Paramount+ are awesome 4 times a week.

On Wednesday, Jim admitted to guest host Frank Holland, "I don't think that the bull case is dead, but it certainly is pushed off."

Jim said he's been "steadfast" in believing "earnings are gonna hang in there."

Steve Weiss said he's got "tremendous respect" for his fellow panelists, then described Jim as "seemingly a permabull" who now is "data-dependent."

Frank pointed out that PARA hit a 52-week low Wednesday. Jim said the concern is that they're "having to spend on content." But ... here's an ending you've seen before ... he thinks the market is "frankly getting this wrong."

Kari Firestone said there's "overcrowding" in the streaming space and "too many streaming services" and, out of all that content, "too much that isn't good."

Joe ‘applauded’ Chapek’s comments about ESPN

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (9/14) Halftime Report didn't talk about the QQQ said "the near-term is perilous" for stocks, and maybe they could fall another 20%, but, "if you're a long-term investor, that 20% down is really not gonna matter to you."

That comment didn't go over well with Steve Weiss, who said Joe is a "fantastic investor" but that he heard Joe say "what's another 20%? Well 20%, going back long term, is 3 years' performance." (What Weiss failed to add is that nobody really knows whether we are going down 20%.)

Joe at one point said "oh by the way at the end of the day" (maximum cliches in the smallest soundbite).

Frank Holland pointed out that Weiss sold his PSQ stake on Monday. "Of course I have regrets," Weiss admitted, but he also had some QQQ and has "no regrets" about selling "98% of those."

Courtney Garcia said she's "definitely not" overallocating to tech now; she found that only 3 names in the ARKK have a "positive P.E. ratio." But she does think the bottom "likely" is in for the market.

Dripping with sarcasm, Kari Firestone suggested it's hard to believe Jeffrey Gundlach, who told Judge in Huntington Beach a day earlier that he could see S&P 3,000, could be "more bearish" than usual.

Kari explained that "we have to get through a few more months" of waiting on inflation and the Fed before we can break above the trading range we're in.

Joe said regardless of the price of oil, energy is a "must" in terms of "portfolio sector inclusion (snicker)."

Joe said MRK offers the "perfect hybrid between offense and defense." Kari said "every clinical trial is being drawn out," in part because of labor shortages. But Kari said PYPL can "trade up much higher."

Joe said he's buying DIS; he "certainly applauded" what he heard from Bob Chapek over the weekend, which is somehow that ESPN (remember when it was fading?) is the "vehicle" (snicker) for the company's growth opportunity.

Mike Santoli said the market is in a "range within a range."

Weiss seemed to be leaning toward a big rally just a day earlier

Judge went all the way out to the Future Proof Wealth Festival in Huntington Beach on Tuesday (9/14) to deliver ... a sleepy episode of the Halftime Report.

(Actually, Judge was probably out there to speak to Jeffrey Gundlach in person.)

(Gundlach is a Buffalo Bills fan. Actually, the Wealth Festivalgoers probably care just as much about pro football and Jean-Luc Godard as they do whatever the S&P 500 did Tuesday. But Judge didn't bring up those other subjects.)

Josh Brown said the VIX is "only 26," but if it gets to 34 or 36, that's where you need the "dry powder."

Brown suggested that the Slogan of 2022 — people on CNBC claiming that inflation has peaked — is too optimistic and asserted, "Next month will not be a low print."

Steve Liesman said a 100-basis-point hike "is probably not gonna happen right now."

Jeremy Siegel, the star guest though he wasn't in Huntington Beach, reaffirmed that he's concerned about the Fed going too far, saying housing has understated inflation for the past 18 months, and it's going to overstate inflation for the next 18 months, because of "the way the government puts housing into those statistics."

Siegel concluded that the CPI is "gonna record much more than we actually have."

Because Judge was in California, Mike Santoli guest-hosted Overtime. On hand at the NYSE was Joe Terranova (who wasn't asked about the QQQ).

How come Steve Liesman wasn’t on to tell us that the Fed really is serious (about something or other)

Judge spent Monday's (9/12) Halftime Report at the SALT Conference NOT talking about the exciting NFL action, but ... Jim Lebenthal's outlook for the economy.

And ... Joe Terranova's most recent position in the QQQ.

Grandpa Steve Weiss predicted a "pretty powerful rally" if CPI is weak, because the market has shown an "incredible appetite for taking on risk."

Weiss also said there's an "absence of news."

Amy Raskin suggested the market's obsession with one month's CPI is "ridiculous in some ways."

Judge said Jonathan Krinsky has decided "the bears fumbled on the goal line at 3,900."

Joe Terranova talked about the QQQ at the 7-minute mark.

Weiss said Volkswagen is "by far my biggest position."

Weiss called Dave Tepper "The GOAT."

In the latter half of the show, Judge brought in SALT host Anthony Scaramucci (this is the New York version), and Judge bluntly stated, "We've gotta get away from those predictions, don't we, that people come on stages and make, and bitcoin's gonna to be a million dollars, by you know, X-Y-Z year."

Judge said some would call bitcoin "overinflated." Anthony asserted, "The use cases are gonna continue to go up," and there's a "finite supply."

Anthony, who mentioned Sam Bankman-Fried at least 3 times, said people recently were "ready to write my obituary, or at least my financial obituary. I don't think they can do that right now."

"I'm like a human Swiss Army knife," Anthony said.

Doc returns — but without the host announcing his company name

Halftime Report viewers got a treat Friday (9/9) when Jon Najarian returned to the "Investment Committee."

Maybe it matters or maybe it doesn't, but Najarian, who hasn't been on since early July, returned on a day off for Judge; the show was guest-hosted by Dom Chu.

In the intro, Dom simply announced "Jon Najarian" as one of the panelists, without the whole "co-founder of so-and-so" thing that used to be a staple of CNBC intros for both Jon and brother Pete, who also hasn't been on CNBC since early July.

It actually took 17 minutes into the program for Chu to get to Jon Najarian, who said he's looking for "close to that 4,200 level" on this "technical bounce."

Najarian predicted people will be "circumspect" about what's going on in Europe, where sanctions are "biting" consumers, and that earnings could be revised lower toward the $200 level that Jim Lebenthal doesn't expect.

Najarian also doesn't expect China to come "roaring out of the chute" like U.S. consumers did emerging from lockdowns.

He did say that JPM is the "only place" he's at in banks, "one of the only banks that is actually, uh, expanding at this moment." He suggested tech may have been oversold and pointed to ZS and AMBA; he even suggested the TDOC and DOCU stories aren't done and that they "still have a business."

Najarian talked about the NFL as a catalyst for DIS and mentioned the Bills' win. He said Disney's theme park chief said they're "booked out," so Najarian suggests buyers "look past the streaming side of Disney+ and look over at the bigger revenue generators for them."

Whatever machinations have been going on here — and this site won't opine on those details now — Najarian's commentary has been missed on the Halftime Report.

Doc said on Twitter he's done "lots of surfing and traveling in the past two months," and he also tweeted, "Not sure if or when @petenajarian will be back on @HalftimeReport or @CNBCFastMoney"

Whew — a couple days without asking Joe about the QQQ

The early portions of Friday's (9/9) Halftime Report, smoothly run by guest host Dom Chu, included what's fast becoming a 2022 CNBC cliche, Steve Liesman smugly hinting that everyone ought to expect 17% (that number's a joke) interest rates from the Federal Reserve in a couple weeks.

Steve said we've recently heard "5-part harmony" of "hawkish talk" from the Fed.

(First it was "transitory," but now according to Steve, the central bank thinks there's a "persistence" to inflation.)

Steve said the market may be right that inflation has "peaked" but that it's nowhere close enough to this 2% goal that will ... apparently cause people to stop complaining about gasoline prices.

Jim Lebenthal, who has made about 272 (that number's a joke) appearances on the Halftime Report since the last time Jon Najarian was on, called Steve a "truth teller" but asserted that if the Fed is "essentially done" by December, then the market is "gonna be OK."

Dom said Scott Minerd made "relatively bearish comments" a day earlier on Judge's Overtime. (Scott talked about 3,000-3,400, which apparently is "relatively bearish.") (Not sure if he mentioned "Fire & Ice.")

Dom said "there's no talk about trade deficits right now."

Jim Lebenthal again, for reasons we can't fathom, touted PARA. Jim said he bought more BA, with his cash from selling NVDA.

Jim gave a lengthy update on Citi and said Jane Fraser didn't get any kind of "honeymoon" from the market, which now realizes "she does have a plan here" which is, as all plans are, "shedding non-core" assets.

Judge insists Fed is ‘against you’

On Thursday's (9/8) Halftime Report, Josh Brown said, "The debate of 50 or 75 is like one of the most boring debates quite frankly." Brown said eventually the market just gets used to the bad news. He also said that WSJ's Nick Timiraos is "basically the Fed's mouthpiece at this point."

Judge though, claimed the Fed is "against you right now, uh, as an investor." Jenny Harrington said "the Fed is not against us," likening it to making her son take Zyrtec and Flonase. Steve Weiss complained, "That's semantic, Jenny."

We thought we were getting past this issue post-pandemic, but on Thursday's show, another panelist (Josh Brown) working from home was heard telling a producer "you guys knocked me off again" on top of someone else's commentary.

Weiss claims Brian Belski is putting spin on data ‘just to his benefit’

Brian Belski, the star guest of Wednesday's (9/7) Halftime Report (unless you count Fish's phone call late in the show), laid out the path to 4,800 this year, stating that "August doesn't matter" and we're entering "conference season."

Belski said you'd have to see a "double in unemployment" for a sign that we're having a recession. "I'm not seeing any kind of recession signs," he said.

Steve Weiss bluntly asserted that Belski is "spinning an awful lot of information just to his benefit."

Belski bristled that "Steve, there's nothing I've done in my entire 33-year career that benefitted me. I'd only speaken (sic) of facts, and I only speak in analysis, so I do not, do not take lightly to what you said, that I only say things that benefit me."

Ouch. (This page is taking no sides on that one.) (OK ... sigh ... It seems Belski might've overstated what Weiss was saying, or at least Weiss' tone.) (Sorry for defending Weiss; it happens.)

Steve Liesman reported on the latest comments by Lael Brainard. Judge told Steve that some people simply don't believe the Fed's ... um ... recent comments that don't really literally indicate anything but seem like a tool for talking down the S&P 500, for some reason.

"Those people can send me a check, Scott," Liesman said; it drew a "good stuff" from Judge.

Judge asked Jim about whether the Fed will follow through on ... whatever its people have been trying to suggest for weeks. "They're just not going to have to," Jim said, predicting sub-$3 national gas prices by October.

"This is the soft landing," Jim said.

Very late in the show, Mark Fisher called in to indicate he seems to think energy is quickly getting oversold. "As a trader, you couldn't ask for a better set-up," Fish claimed, saying risk/reward heading into winter has gotten "10 times better" because of the lower prices of nat gas and crude.

"Middle of next week is when you know, I think that it's time to step in, not now," Fish said.

Jim’s point taken down a notch by facts on the ground within seconds

On Wednesday's (9/7) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal claimed we're in the "middle stages" of a transition from growth to value "over the next 10 years."

While we're hard-pressed to detect any actual evidence supporting that statement, Jim actually got Judge's attention by saying we're "still in the early stages of an economic expansion."

Judge asked if Jim didn't mean "contraction." Jim acknowledged there's been a lot of "heat" about this subject, but he insisted that "economic activity is strong, period."

Jim contended that the Atlanta Fed is pegging 2.6% real GDP this quarter. Judge said the Atlanta Fed is among the "historically worst" in terms of early forecasts.

Evidently, the Atlanta Fed was listening, as moments later, Bryn "Covered Calls" Talkington said the Atlanta Fed just came out "a second ago" and revised its GDP outlook to 1.4%.

"I know you don't like when I interject facts into our conversations," Judge told Jim at one point.

Steve Weiss complained about what he sees as bulls' expanding timelines, "3 years, 5 years, 10 years," maybe the next show "it'll be, in 20 years, we'll do better."

Wonder if Josh is still fuming about the guy ‘who raves about how great their television calls are’

Apparently thinking this subject can earn him a Peabody, Judge on Wednesday's (9/7) Halftime Report actually asked Joe Terranova about buying/not buying the QQQ in the show's opening minute.

Joe, who apparently is buying, said there's a "great lesson here (snicker) for the viewers."

Joe reiterated that it's not about "being right" but "reacting to the market."

"You have to wait for indicators that act as a catalyst (snicker) to allow you (snicker again) to react," Joe said, citing oil, Treasury yields and the dollar all pulling back.

Joe said the risk he's taking here is losing "a little bit."

Judge actually said, "I thought maybe you just bought it because you were tired of me asking you about it."

Steve Weiss admitted he covered his QQQ short but said his view is "firm" that this is a bear market. He said he covered for the reasons Joe cited. Weiss said this is just "short-term relief" from an oversold condition.

Liz Young said Joe and Steve are "better traders" than she is, but she'd avoid the QQQ because of continuing volatility.

Bryn "Covered Calls" Talkington stated, "Technically, we are very oversold here." Bryn said Nasdaq stocks will be under pressure until there's a "better narrative" about inflation and the Fed.

Judge suggested on Friday that people ask ‘What’s Wapner really like?’ when appearing on Halftime

It only took 8 minutes.

On Tuesday's (9/6) post-holiday Halftime Report, Judge thought the issue of Joe Terranova's sudden lack of interest in QQQ belonged in the A Block.

Judge actually claimed that Joe had been "circling like a shark" (snicker) around the ETF.

In response, Joe, whose audio worked but camera froze, said he didn't buy it as promised because his strategy is to "react to what I'm seeing in the market."

Judge said Joe owned QQQ about 10 days ago, now he doesn't have it, so "What happened." Joe said the "technicals got washed away." (Zzzzzzzzzzzz.)

Speaking of technicals, Josh Brown basically implied, as he has for months, that it's not time to buy.

Brown said the bounces we've had are "completely within the range" of the bear-market bounces of "what we've seen historically for a bear-market rally," namely the 2000-02 market.

"Bear markets have never bottomed at 17 times earnings," Brown said.

Kari Firestone sought to put her own stamp on Brown's comments. "But saying, 'This is a bear market, we shouldn't own stocks,' is not really what Josh means. He's just saying that there is downside potential," Kari explained.

But later, Brown seemed to take issue with Kari's statement that "if you miss the best 5 days per year in the market, your return over the long term would be cut by half." (Which, admittedly, has always been a bogus theory. How many people invest in stocks for 360 days a year and manage to miss the best 5.) Brown said a lot of the biggest days in market history going back to the 1920s occurred during bear markets.

Judge said now the guy at Credit Suisse thinks the bear market will last 14 months with a 35% drop.

And he said Mark Newton is warning there could be a rally in September while "very few expect it." (This comes after Tom Lee has been saying for weeks that we're going to wipe out the bear market as fast as they did in 1982.)

Judge even talked about "Fire and Ice Part 2."

Joe said he thinks "this market is 60-75 days away from getting the all-clear."

Joe said ARKK made a 52-week low.

Joe said AAPL is his biggest position (Zzzzzzzzz), and "news flash," he's not getting out of it.

Stephanie Link said, "I, uh, take the strategy of dollar-cost averaging" (that would bring eye-rolling from Eric Bolling).

Stephanie touted META. Josh said it's on the "precipice" of either the "mother of all bounces" or a "really nasty breakdown."

Josh slams TV stock pickers

On Friday's (9/2) pre-holiday Halftime Report, Josh Brown seemed to take issue with someone who makes stock calls on TV.

Brown gave a shout-out to his fellow panelists, "4 people who in real life, not on television, have to answer to clients for the things that we say and do. It's very different to have to actually do that ... than to just make calls on TV."

He continued, "There's this other type of prognosticator who raves about how great their television calls are, their Twitter calls are ... it's very different than to actually in real life have to answer to other people."

Hmmmm ... indeed, managing folks' money is a different and more serious line of work than making stock calls on TV.

But when the folks doing the former agree to do the latter for 10 years running, then ... ?

Brown said "answer" during this commentary 3 times.

"I think I know the root of where this is coming from," Judge said, without elaborating.

Steelers fan Rob isn’t asked whether NFL’s next HOF QB was just drafted by Pittsburgh

Friday's (9/2) Halftime was basically another edition of ... Judge hectoring Jim Lebenthal over the earnings outlook.

Judge said the "higher probability" is that earnings revisions are going down and insisted that "one can agree" that there's a "high probability" of ... hmmmm ... apparently that earnings will tumble even if the Fed goes up 100. (He wasn't totally clear.)

Jim told Judge (pleasantly, not as sharp as it looks here), "Don't start yelling at me, OK, when I disagree with you, you tend to yell, and I don't like it."

Jim added, "I go out and do my own gumshoe work," and economic demand hasn't "fallen off the cliff."

Later, Lebenthal protested, "I never said I want to be known as All-In Jim." Judge persisted on his downward earnings estimates. Jim said he could explain his view and is "purposely doing this in a pithy fashion," but that not enough attention is paid to the jobs market. (If you think that will stop Judge from being a pest on this subject again Tues, Wed, Thurs, etc., you've got another thing coming.)

Jenny Harrington, who leads the league in hair as always and could've been drafted at the NYSE for a shampoo commercial, contended, "I don't think we're getting back to the good old days," though it was a "great report."

Rob Sechan curiously called the jobs report a "very surgical number" and said the volatility isn't over and that he expects "very very hawkish" Fed rhetoric throughout the month.

"I wouldn't load up the boat yet," said Sechan.

Jim said the September CPI will "move the needle" more than Friday's jobs report.

Jenny, a chatterbox as always, kept trying to talk over Josh Brown regarding semiconductors. Jenny stressed that NVDA "takes up a large percent of market cap in the S&P 500" but is "not a large contributor to S&P 500 earnings."

Later, on another topic, "My prediction is that we're gonna look back in (sic) 10 years from now, and Apple will, relative to another 30 stocks, will have done a whole lot of nothing," said Jenny, calling it a "dead weight of stability."

Jeremy Siegel: ‘On the ground, things are looking so much better’

On Thursday's (9/1) Overtime, Jeremy Siegel questioned the Fed "scaring the market" about 2023 when it has "no idea" what will happen; it's "not a good image to project."

Judge was a bit taken aback during this interesting conversation, as Siegel said that in 26 of 27 recent indicators, inflation has come in "below expectations." Siegel said he looked up the September 2021 meeting of the FOMC, when "half of the FOMC said there was no need to raise interest rates in 2022."

"I got you," Judge acknowledged, saying that comment "underscores" Siegel's apparent point that "I don't believe the Fed."

"They certainly didn't do what they wanted to do last year," Siegel said.

Kari suggests Josh might be rooting for a recession

On Thursday's (9/1) Halftime Report, Kari Firestone tried to sound upbeat about the financial markets amid the headwinds of Steve Weiss and Josh Brown.

Kari said the market's dropped 10% in less than a month, and if we retest the June low, we could see people jumping back in.

Even so, "I continue to be pretty bearish," Weiss said, explaining, "The Fed controls markets. Period. End of story."

At one point, Kari told Weiss that the market is "getting less overvalued" every day this week. Weiss insisted it's "getting more overvalued" because earnings are coming down, and Brown agreed.

Brown said he doesn't want to be "typecast" as "the new Robert Kiyosaki (snicker) or whatever and just constantly warning people, warning people."

"A lot of the damage has already been done," Brown asserted (as if the stock market going down for a week amounts to "damage").

Brown said that in June, the market got to a "ridiculously bearish positioning low."

Kari noted this is "one of the lightest trading weeks of the year" and suggested stocks are in a range from mid-June to the August high.

Brown told Kari, "I'm not rooting for recession or job losses."

"Really?" Kari said.

"No, 100% not," Brown assured.

But Brown claimed, "The last time we were at those June lows, things weren't as bad as they are now," explaining, "Back then we were still talking about 'Wow, look how amazing unemployment is and look how strong the housing market are (sic)'."

"The market could change on a dime," Kari said.

Weiss gloated about being "bearish since January."

Weiss said "Now's not the time" to buy NVDA.

Ari Wald said the market is "likely to get worse before it gets better." Wald suggested we could get to 3,800; Judge said most people would take that.

Josh said that Weiss in all black looked like "the Jewish Johnny Cash."

What if inflation corrects itself? (a/k/a So much for that CNBC slogan, ‘The cure for high prices is high prices’)

As late August begins to resemble mid-June, when people on CNBC suddenly started declaring with hair on fire, "We're already in a recession!!!!!," Judge on Wednesday's (8/31) Halftime Report elicited a curious comment from Joe Terranova about U.S. economic conditions.

Joe insisted that whether we're in an economic contraction, "there has to be one coming," because, according to Joe, it's the "only way you can combat inflation."

We're guessing that's based on a sample size of 1 and has the name "Volcker" attached to it.

Kinda interesting how the Federal Reserve for decades hasn't been the slightest bit interested in higher education or health care prices.

But boy, once you get to gas pumps ...

(And our question to Joe would be, why aren't we at 4% already? Why sit around while this incredibly urgent problem wipes out all of our long-term prosperity?)

(But whatever.)

Jim Lebenthal, who somehow wasn't asked by Judge about the shovels in the ground in Ohio for Intel's plant, brought up Mohamed El-Erian basically saying a day earlier, "Don't believe the Fed"; Jim said he doesn't think the Fed is lying but that "the data supports a soft landing more than people are giving credence to."

In the 14th minute, Joe brought up "long-duration assets" (snicker). That's called Momentum Commentary on CNBC. Joe admitted, "We're using that term again on the network." (There's also a resurgence of "At the end of the day," but Joe didn't mention that.)

Joe says he hates doing TV from his office; "I like being on set."

Joe tried to unleash a 3-point plan for risk management; sadly, we lost track after about the 2nd point. (The Najarians are the panelists who most like to use the term risk management ... but they're not exactly on the show these days.)

Amy Raskin said she's not wildly bullish by any means but thinks we can have a "positive close-out to the year." Then Judge claimed that "basically" what Amy said is she doesn't believe the Fed. Amy cut in to challenge or clarify that, saying she thinks the Fed speeches are designed to "control long-term inflation expectations."

Jim likes V in the payments space; he predicted PYPL spends a "long time in the penalty box."

Joe actually said with a straight face that the Friday econ reports are "incredibly important."

If the ‘overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2% goal,’ why didn’t we go to 4.5% last week?

The more pessimistic members of Judge's crew (virtually the day's entire panel) were taking victory laps on Tuesday's (8/30) Halftime, without Jim Lebenthal or Tom Lee to serve as a buffer. (Viewers did get an analogy between Springsteen and The Archies.)

Our biggest fear was that, on Tuesday's Overtime, Joe Terranova would be asked to talk about QQQ again. (He wasn't.) (Whew.) Joe told Judge that "the technicals" gave the green light to buy stocks in mid-August, but now it's a "red light."

"There is no technical catalyst any longer," Joe asserted.

Speaking of effects mistaken as causes, we're trying to figure out why the Federal Reserve seems far more interested in playing the S&P 500 than raising rates.

What about the guy who’s going fishing in Panama with Jim Cramer, what does he think (a/k/a how hawkish are we when congressmen from low-income areas ask the central bank why rates have to go so high?)

As Judge's insufferable coverage of the Federal Reserve continued for a 2nd day Monday (8/29), the person getting most chippy was ... Judge.

Jim Lebenthal said the market has been taking rate hikes "in stride" and he doesn't see a recession at all, not even next year. Joe Terranova insisted, "There has to be an economic contraction," though you can "call it whatever you want."

So then Judge tried to telling Jim, "You're going to have a significant economic slowdown ... that is only likely to get worse if for no other reason it has to. Because the Fed wants it to." (Ah. So now we're in Everything-Jerome-Powell-Says-Is-Gonna-Happen mode again. As opposed to the chuckling we sometimes hear 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, 12 years after Fed statements.) (And he's so determined to make these hawkish rate moves, instead of doing them Friday, he's ... waiting at least a month or more ...)

Jim said commodities have been coming down, and retailers' inventories are pressuring prices downward. Then Jim really tempted Judge, citing the "10-year plans" of infrastructure projects that won't change based on week-to-week news.

Judge said those projects are "insignificant in the near term." Jim said "you're wrong" to dismiss it like that.

Judge demanded to know if the shovels have "gone in the ground yet" at the Intel plant in Ohio. "The Intel shovel is on plan," Jim insisted.

"You can talk over me all you want," Jim continued, prompting Judge's look of surprise.

Jim asked Judge to "explain" why continuing jobless claims are "ultra-low." Judge insisted the numbers will go up because "Jay Powell explicity looked you in the face on Friday and said he was going to do and wanted." (Ah. Here we go again. Everything Jay Powell says is true. According to Judge.) (And if that speech were given with the S&P at 3,200, wonder if we would've heard "the economy is not in a recession" and "has signs of strength.")

"It's like not difference of opinion, it's just factual," Judge added.

"It's not factual. It's actually a difference of opinion," Jim said.

"No it's factual. No it's factual actually," Judge said, adding, "The economy is going to slow more. ... It's only a matter of how much it slows. ... How can it not slow?"

"You cannot tell me what the future's gonna be as a fact. Don't try it," Jim warned.

Judge shrugged, "You just told me what the future's gonna be as a fact."

Judge actually gave Jim extra time to explain his Final Trade of CLF.

Remember when Jenny was going to wait to buy AAPL at $100? (a/k/a measuring shovels in the ground)

On Monday's (8/29) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova announced that he's not going to buy QQQ (his most favorite name to talk about these days maybe aside from Palo Alto), but AAPL.

Joe claimed, "I don't think we're off to the races" because we have an "adversarial (snicker) Federal Reserve."

Jim Lebenthal said he'd "applaud" Joe for buying AAPL, stating, "I think we are supposed to be buyers here."

Degas Wright said he sees "a lot of opportunities in REITs."

Judge said it seems to him like "most of you" on the panel believe "Friday was an anomaly." Joe said the market was "a little bit offsides" on Friday. Joe asserted, "This is a U-shaped recovery." (Which presumably means, after 20% down in the first half, it's not far from going vertical.)

A bunch of people seemed to enjoy using the term "longer-duration assets."

Stephanie Link said, "The Fed is going to be more aggressive for longer." (Because everything that Jay Powell said Friday is the truth.)

In a fairly boring corporate battle, Glen Kacher said he's trying to get "the most value for our shares" in ZEN.

Degas Wright made the case for MPW and seemed to wrap up the discussion before Judge was ready for a break.

When CNBCers refer to Fed officials by their last names, you know you’ve been watching too much of this stuff

We would've preferred to take a pass on CNBC's insufferable Fed Week coverage Thursday (8/25), but unfortunately we flipped the TV on and got what we deserved on the Halftime Report.

While Judge was making forecasts, Thursday's show indulged in the usual gaming-the-first-6-hours-of-trading-after-the-Fed speech trade, as in, if he says this, stocks will go up for a day, and if he doesn't say this, stocks will be down for a day, etc.

Jenny Harrington said the market would be fine with 75 for the next hike and then "that's it."

"I don't think 75 bps would be good," said Steve Weiss, who correctly said that whenever Fed data/remarks come out, it's a "50/50" bet as to what the market reaction is.

Josh Brown made a point about how nobody would really decide to buy a stock if there's a 50-point hike and then not decide to buy it if there's a 75-point hike. (But Brown's missing the point — someone who thinks it's going to be a 50-point hike would buy the stock before Friday, whereas someone predicting 75 would probably wait till Monday or Tuesday.)

Steve Liesman, CNBC's star of the week, pointed out that last year, Jay Powell said "supply-demand imbalances are improving" (snicker), and this time he'll have to "walk back that notion" (hasn't that notion been walked-back enough already?).

Steve insisted that what the Fed says this week has a "lasting impact" (snicker) (until the next CPI) as to where rates and markets are going to go, and it's trying to "bring forward" those policies to today. Liesman tried to tell Josh Brown that "people spend an awful lot of money and time trying to figure this out" (snicker) and maybe there's actually "permanent, lasting, uh, elements to the reaction to the immediate comments by the Fed."

Brown said whatever is said by Fed officials, "we should pay attention," but it's not "fruitful" to make bets ahead of Jackson Hole.

Judge though said, "I feel like 75 would be upsetting to the market."

Judge actually said "b.s." to the notion of how, for long-term investors, "none of it matters," because "when the market's going down a lot, everybody's time horizon feels like it's 5 seconds." Jenny Harrington insisted that's not true for her.

Jenny said a "nail in the coffin" in the decision not to invest in homebuilders was that cutomer reviews were "pretty terrible," suggesting the builders might have rushed product to market and "might have risked real damage to their brand."

Jenny also said everyone watching the show has traveled and taken vacations, and it's "off the charts busy everywhere you go." Judge said amid all this activity, JBLU is down 42% this year. Jenny said it's time to "buy low and sell high."

Steve Weiss said he bought EQT. (Zzzzzzzz)

Kari Firestone said "June 31st" at one point. Josh Brown said SNOW "looks like it's bottomed."

The really important comment is the one that should’ve come later — what does ‘boxed in’ mean

Sometimes, the offhand comments on CNBC's Halftime Report prove the most headline-worthy.

Such was the case Wednesday (8/24), when Joe "maybe QQQ today or not QQQ today" Terranova made an observation about energy prices.

Joe, who donned a tremendous suit for his visit to the NYSE, said he doesn't see how equities can move higher if oil and natural gas "spike higher" because the Fed will be "boxed in."

Which makes us wonder several things. 1) If all of these interest-rate hikes aren't lowering the price of gasoline, then what are they lowering? But 2) Didn't gasoline start falling well before the effects of the rate hikes start being felt? And/or 3) When did lowering gasoline prices become part of the Fed's "mandate"?

What Joe is implying is a troubling truth — that the Federal Reserve will keep taking actions that impair the stock market on the belief that it will solve a detached, free-market problem.

It sounds a bit like Detroit Lions fans deciding that the louder they roar pre-snap, the more likely Aaron Rodgers is to throw an interception. And by halftime they're hoarse, and Rodgers has 4 TDs and no picks.

Judge totally let Joe's comment pass, like a hitter with the bat on his shoulder watching strike 3 buzz right down the middle. Thus viewers never heard Joe explain what the Fed does if oil and gas "spike higher."

Marko wasn’t much different than Brian Belski

Marko Kolanovic was the star guest of Wednesday's (8/24) Halftime Report, but frankly, it wasn't as interesting as listening to Tom Lee.

Marko, who was only dialing in on the phone, said the U.S. consumer will be "OK" and he doesn't expect a "global recession."

"Quite a bit of bearishness is already priced in," Kolanovic said, predicting a "benign" September CPI print.

In a shameless bit of name-dropping, Jim Cramer had to say he's going on a fishing trip to Panama with Marko's colleague Michael Cembalest. Cramer questioned Kolanovic's idea of adding China exposure. Kolanovic said that's a fair point, but the "discount is quite significant."

Judge said Marko has been a "steadfast" (snicker) contrarian.

No sign of the Najarians (cont’d)

Judge on Wednesday's (8/24) Halftime Report said he'd agree with the "notion" that Jay Powell "can't really say much" in Jackson Hole, except in July, stocks rallied on the "perception of what he said."

And now, according to Judge, whatever Powell says will be analyzed to see if it "matches up with the presser." (Translation: Can't have another rally. The Fed for whatever reason doesn't want stocks to go up.) (Why don't they just hike 300 basis points? Why not 900? Aren't they supposed to crush inflation?)

Mike Santoli said the NYSE "used to close on Wednesdays for like 6 months in 1968 to catch up on paperwork." Jim Cramer gushed to Mike, "Your insights are amazing."

Jim Cramer said he's "had it" with Adam Jonas' negativity toward Ford.

Jim Lebenthal, though, said he had to be "fair" to his "guys ... at GM ... they take good care of me."

Judge questioned how Jim Lebenthal can be long CRM if he's complaining about NVDA's valuation.

On Wednesday's (8/24) 5 p.m. Fast Money, regarding PTON, Karen Finerman said, "When a great management team combines with a mediocre company, it's the reputation of the company that remains intact."

Why isn’t Judge driving an electric vehicle?

Judge finally returned to the Halftime Report on Monday (8/22) and immediately complained that "every Fed person" since Jay Powell's last press conference has tried to say the market's getting it wrong. (Translation: The Fed doesn't want people to buy stocks; they want another 6 months like the last 6 months because ... who knows.) But actually, the minutes suggest the Fed may be more hawkish. (Translation II: They have no idea exactly how much they're hiking or not hiking until the next batch of data comes in.)

Judge questioned if the stock market fell for a "false narrative" that the Fed is "pivoting." Jim Lebenthal said the rally isn't based on the prospect of a cut, but the prospect of 100 more basis points to year-end.

Bryn Talkington claimed Powell has been "very very clear" about 2% inflation. (Oh sure, they always make interest-rate moves based on comments they made 6 months ago.)

Bryn explained that Arthur Burns stopped raising rates, and inflation "came roaring back." (How come it didn't come roaring back in the mid-'80s, '90s, '2000s, and only after factories shut down in 2020?)

Meanwhile, Judge revealed that he was in California for vacation and experienced a little pain at the pump.

"It's not California Dreamin'" when you're filling the gas tank, Judge said.

Now, we have no idea whatsoever what kind of cars Judge has in his garage. In California, assuming he was pumping gas, he was probably driving a rental.

In any case, we're still wondering how the Fed magically lowered gasoline prices before the rate hikes really even took effect. (Maybe it was Joe Biden's jawboning of refiners.) (snicker) Or what the actual cost of artificially making gasoline $3 a gallon in California would be to the economy. Judge didn't go there.

Of course, before anyone can buy electric cars ... or cars of ANY kind ... we need to have cars on dealer lots. Steve Weiss said just because automakers are making more cars "doesn't mean they're going to be able to sell them." Jim Lebenthal said they will; "auto inventories right now on the lot are 1/5 of what they normally are."

‘Zooms is much better than Teams’

On Monday's (8/22) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss claimed, "The bulls seem to want to have it both ways," which is the belief that the economy is strong but inflation's coming down and the Fed will stop.

"Think of the contradiction in that thought process," Weiss said.

But it's no contradiction. It's the daily half-full/half-empty market debate. At any point in time, no matter what the Fed is doing, you can argue that whatever the Fed's doing is because the economy's too hot or too cold, and you can convince yourself to avoid stocks. It's your money. "Oh, we've got endless ZIRP because the economy's weak. Don't buy." #greatstrategyforlast14years

Weiss said to "Look no further than the 10-year." That's true, when the yield's up, stocks are down. Weiss said he doesn't think stocks will tumble below the June lows, but he thinks we can "kiss those lows" and stay there.

Joe Terranova said the market stalled at the 200-day. But he's still in the "buy the dip" camp.

Judge said that because stocks didn't get through the 200-day, maybe "the trend is changing."

Bryn Talkington said the rally's been fueled by a "massive amount of short covering." Bryn said there's a "wide range of outcomes."

Meanwhile, Bryn conceded the technicals for NVDA don't look good. But if it sells off, it's an "opportunity."

Bryn said "Zooms (sic plural) is much better than Teams." Bryn said the market is putting a lower multiple on ZM (25) than on CLX (39). Judge said ZM may be cheap relative to a staple stock but "expensive relative to the market."

Joe got to say "Palo Alto" (historically one of his favorite names) a bunch of times while comparing it to CRWD and FTNT, saying the latter 2 have more potential. Jim Lebenthal said the valuation's too high for him on those names.

Frank led with Fed minutes (snicker)

On Thursday's (8/18) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal, joining Frank Holland at the NYSE, opened the show shrugging at the Fed minutes because it's about "data dependency," and he thinks the "probability of a soft landing is going up."

(Jim wasn't shrugging at TV decorum, seemingly unsure in his opening remarks whether he should be looking at Frank or looking at the camera that wasn't on the air at the time.)

Jim suggested the bears have to prove their case. When Frank brought that up later with Steve Weiss, Weiss said, "I have no idea what he's talking about. 'The bears have to prove their case.' I don't even know what that means."

Weiss insisted the Fed has "one objective" (snicker), which is to "slow the economy" (snicker again). Weiss claimed the stock market has been thriving on a cutback in supply of Treasurys. Weiss said stocks can "party on for the next couple weeks," but look out in September.

Jim argued that Brian Cornell and Jamie Dimon both said in the past week that the consumer is in "great shape." Jim said Weiss is "trying to prove the bear case saying the consumer stinks."

Weiss insisted "the consumer's not doing great."

Steve Liesman said Weiss is right that market conditions have eased while the Fed has tried to keep things tight.

"I think the doves are a little in front of themselves right now," said guest Victoria Greene, so she tends to "agree a little bit more" with Weiss than Jim.

Greene said the market hasn't had a "full capitulation" and that a V-shaped recovery is actually "very, very uncommon." (Um, not anymore, but OK.)

Greene and Josh Brown both touted LNG. Greene actually listed IBM as one of her 3 stock picks, but Frank said he didn't want to talk about that one, he wanted to talk about LNG. After the A Block ended, we heard that that portion of the show was sponsored by IBM.

Bryn Talkington bought FCX "around 31" but sold the January 35 calls for $2.85. (This writer is long FCX.)

Weiss said he's not buying EL because of valuation but wouldn't sell it; he made a good joke about Jim and makeup.

Josh Brown made a gushing case for BJ, arguing the old "there really is no resistance in sight."

While Frank insisted on asking everyone at the top of the show what they thought about the Fed minutes (Zzzzzzz), Brown said it only "reinforces what everyone already thought."

But Brown called the existing home sales number "notable." Brown said transactions are slowing, but "prices are not coming down."

Brown advised not falling for FOMO (that's a slogan, not a stock) and again cautioned about the VIX around 20.

Bryn Talkington called the Fed minutes a "nothing burger" and said the Fed has close to 400 Ph.D.s and so is like "one of the most well-funded hedge funds out there," which strikes her as "incredible" that the Fed has only come up with a soft landing "under 10% of the time."

Savita’s capitulation to 3,600 on July 14 wasn’t the bottom — but might as well have been

On Wednesday's (8/17) Halftime Report, guest host Frank Holland quoted Savita Subramanian, whose capitulation kick-started this rally, in a new note as saying there's "foolproof" (that was Frank's term but not necessarily Savita's) "signposts" (that was Savita's term, according to Frank) that involve some computation of P.E. ratio + CPI (Zzzzzzz) (inventing stats to justify a bad call) indicating another pullback is ahead.

Joe Terranova said he respects Subramanian but that it's a "somewhat complicated" (snicker) outlook.

Jenny Harrington started off the show explaining how she was pessimistic on the market in January but got "enthusiastic" in July. (Translation: Jenny correctly calls the market every 6 months.) But now she's not as enthusastic, asserting the market is just "muddling through" the rest of the year.

Jim "James" Lebenthal said a lot of people are on vacation in late August, and "traditionally September is a tricky month," so it wouldn't hurt to have "a little bit of dry powder."

Those 2 might've sounded mildly skeptical, but Degas Wright bluntly declared, "This looks to be a bear market rally."

Indeed, Steve Liesman said the Fed has "a ways to go" and that it seemed to Steve like only Degas on the panel agrees with him that the market is too optimistic about Fed policy.

Liesman, flashing that underrated sense of humor, made a joke about Jim not having a tie.

Jim said semiconductors (always a boring topic for panelists to discuss) are just a "referendum on a day-to-day basis as to whether we're going into a recession or not."

Jenny said she didn't want to sound "crass" but that the top 85% (or 80%, she kind of implied both) of consumers are clearly spending money and holding up well.

Jenny said IBM is "really cheap," and when has anyone heard that before.

Joshua, meet James

Tuesday's (8/16) Halftime Report produced one of the most curious exchanges in recent memory, after Josh Brown, on the set in Englewood Cliffs, expressed caution about certain economic headwinds ahead.

Jim Lebenthal, beaming in remotely, on the other hand, contended that in 4 months, we'll be past Fed tightening and the "garbage" of midterm elections and seeing "inflation coming down" and "all that supply chain onshoring" (snicker for the last one).

"Hey James, it's Josh, thank you for joining us today," said Brown, oddly completely seriously, before asking about "the very big difference" between gasoline and rent, which Brown said "is not coming down."

James, who looked curiously puzzled about the intro, responded, "Yes, Joshua, since you called me James, I will go by your formal name of Joshua, I think you make a fine point," adding he doesn't have a "counter" to that argument but that nothing is ever "completely rosy" and that things besides energy, such as freight costs, are seeing pricing pressure ease.

Guest host Dom Chu (still no Judge) asked James about BA; "I know that you traffic (snicker) in that name."

Brown mentioned a "screaming" inverted yield curve and remade a point he's been making in recent weeks, that the VIX this year sub-20 has been a sell signal. Honestly, after we started wrapping our heads around that one, we came up with this response: If stocks are going to crash every time the VIX is under 20, then we're never again going to see 4,800. And if we do actually see 4,800 again, the climb to that level could just as likely start in June 2022 as in June 2026. #tradesthatworkuntiltheydon't

Jim is asked if he’s ‘finally a believer’ in the rally

On Monday's (8/15) Najarian-less (see below) Halftime Report, Kari Firestone asserted that it's evident that there's "plenty of people out there interested in buying."

Kari said it's "unlikely" we go back to the June 16 lows. (Actually the intraday low was June 17, but no matter.) Steve Weiss later offered, "I don't know if we do or not."

"This is a glass half-full market," said Weiss, who affirmed he "added meaningful equity exposure."

Weiss said despite the claims of some, this hasn't been a good earnings season, and he made his usual it's-OK-now-but-stocks-are-gonna-be-bad-in-a-couple-months prediction.

Weiss said he's long DVN and, to head off those who may have heard his skepticism of the energy sector, asserted that the energy space is "uninvestable" but "extremely tradeable."

Joe Terranova said the market has more "upside potential."

Joe made his increasingly tiresome spiel again about how the market shouldn't be hoping for a "pivot" by the Fed but should be hoping that the Fed brings down inflation.

Joe's audio went south when asked to opine on DIS.

Brian Belski, who made the same bull case he's literally made all year, praised guest host Melissa Lee (Judge was off again) for how she's "managing Weiss."

Guest host Frank Holland on Friday's (8/12) Halftime actually asked Jim Lebenthal if Jim is "finally a believer in this rally."

Tom Lee, who's on some CNBC show about every day, on Friday made another analogy to August 1982.

What’s up, Doc? Najarians haven’t been heard from since July 7

Thursday's (8/11) Halftime Report was most notable for who wasn't there.

Not Judge.

The Najarians.

Matter of fact, we haven't really heard from them since July 7.

On that day, coincidentally, Judge asked Jon Najarian late in the program about Market Rebellion's ties to Voyager Digital.

Jon Najarian wasn't the only person on Halftime to get questions about Voyager, and we didn't think it was any kind of extraordinary exchange, although this page did call it one of Judge's "strongest moments of 2022."

Little did we know it was the last we'd see of Doc for a while.

(The picture above of Doc covering his eyes is from April 5.)

Pete Najarian's page at CNBC.com includes disclosures from July 8. This page hasn't quoted Pete since July 1.

Haven’t heard ‘euphoria’ for a while

On Thursday's (8/11) Halftime Report, panelists weren't exactly euphoric. (We think "euphoria" is one of those end stages of the 4-stage bull market that Lee Cooperman always talks about.)

Josh Brown stated, "I am not optimistic that this rally continues at the same pace that it's had."

Steve Weiss affirmed he's been "very bearish" and claimed it's "been the right call" (except for the last 7 weeks) ... he said the market's "OK for, for a little bit here," with the chance that he's wrong about that.

Even so, Weiss predicts "things get very tough in September and October."

Degas Wright said September is "historically a down month for the market."

Shannon Saccocia said consumer confidence in September and October could get "depressed" by the political rhetoric, but "I do think that November and December are setting up for a nice rally into 2023."

Might as well have Tim Cook, Andy Jassy hand out the Lombardi Trophy

On Thursday's (8/11) Halftime Report, Josh Brown said he likes NFLX long term.

Guest host Frank Holland impressively asked why Brown doesn't like it short term. Brown said "the stock went up 37% over the last 3 months."

Citing the importance of live sports, Brown said AAPL and AMZN will be writing "insane checks" to MLB and the NFL, and NFLX can't "compete" with that "at a certain level."

Steve Weiss questioned the return DIS is getting on its content spending; he still has a problem with the valuation. But he's looking to buy NFLX because it doesn't "need to have sports."

Weiss bought more SMH, saying it was priced for "armageddon," though it's a "short-term position" on a "very short leash."

Weiss is long TGT and doesn't think Brian Cornell is going to miss again.

Josh Brown again made a speech about the "acute issue" of natural gas.

Degas Wright sold UMC and bought STM to cut his "exposure to Taiwan."

Josh took a victory lap on BROS. "Everywhere they go, within a year or 2, the store has become a habit for the consumer," Brown explained.

Frank asked how BROS compares with DNKN and SBUX. "Wrong comps," Brown said, stating "it's a drive-thru in a parking lot."

Brown is long MTTR but said he's not adding because it's unprofitable.

After Phil LeBeau spoke about Rivian, Degas Wright talked up ALB. Josh said he's not interested in the OEMs, which will be a "knife fight," but he likes CHPT as an infrastructure play. Weiss again touted VWAGY and said he'll add if it pulls back.

Frank botches a few audibles

The S&P 500 was up about a jillion points on Wednesday (8/10), nevertheless, Jim Lebenthal (pronounced "Leebenthal" by guest host Frank Holland) was cautioning Halftime Report viewers that it's "definitely" not the time to "spike the football."

That's despite the fact Jim said it's been "literally" a year and a half since the CPI has come in lower than expectations, a "breathtakingly long period of time."

Joe Terranova opened the show with a sleepy take on interest rates and why you should "price out stagflation."

Steve Liesman chose to focus on real hourly average earnings.

Kari Firestone said the market has "lost interest in the Hail Mary pass" and that the market doesn't think it needs "some resurrection from the Fed."

Star guest Jeremy Siegel outlined what he'd do if he were Jay Powell. "I would go 50, and then do 25s," Siegel said.

Regarding multiples, Siegel said "I don't think 17 is too expensive," but "we are moving towards a long run of a 20 P.E. ratio."

Siegel added that "we live in a world" where long-term real rates will be "zero or negative for quite a while."

Joe sounded downright disdainful about META.

Kari Firestone decided to add to PYPL, maybe the most ghastly stock of the last 12 months, stating it's "up 40% since mid-June."

Joe affirmed he's long some big banks. "I believe in the capital market play," Joe said, touting old favorite VIRT.

Kari Firestone said DIS "probably deserves" this rally.

Frank Holland said Jason Snipe let him use his NFLX password, so "I know that you own Netflix" (when he really meant "I know that you're a subscriber"), and asked Snipe if he's "still bullish" on the stock. Snipe explained that "I sold it, you know, last summer."

Jim said the WYNN management is indicating it's not seeing "any sign of a recession."

Frank Holland said Vegas was "jam-packed" last week.

At the end of the show, Frank said, "I'll see you- you won't see me on Overtime, that's Scott Wapner." That made us think, "Judge is back from break and doing only 1 show today?" Instead, Overtime was guest hosted by Mike Santoli.

Josh Brown on Overtime pointed to the VIX dipping below 20 and cautioned that there's a "lag effect" of rate hikes and "all hell could start to break loose" (snicker) in September and October.

‘Who cares’ about COIN’s deal

A bit of a howler happened early in Tuesday's (8/9) Halftime Report when guest host Frank Holland actually asked Josh Brown if chip warnings presented an "emotional moment" for Brown.

Brown said no, explaining that NVDA over its history has had "many 40% drawdowns," but he's not buying chip stocks because it's a "tough space" and "next year looks cloudy."

Jim Lebenthal said he's selling NVDA because, even though the sector is a great long-term story, he's already "very overweight chips" and the sector's having a "speed bump" and when he looked to trim, NVDA "came right to the top of the list."

Brown chuckled how "the old playbooks really don't work" because of the contrasting economic slowdown with big gains in jobs.

Phil LeBeau said it's a "huge, huge day" for BA and a "momentum change" for the company.

Jim said the delivery of 787s will bring in cash flow to Boeing, which means the potential of an equity raise "really comes off the table." Josh said BA is an "easy trade," using 125 as a bottom level.

Brown said "who cares" about Coinbase's deal with BlackRock; "there's nothing in it." Brown said if you're bullish on crypto, buy bitcoin, not COIN.

Jim Lebenthal called WYNN "undervalued" based on its U.S. assets, with the potential for gravy from any China reopenings. Frank Holland, for whatever reason, said, "The Farmer there, little negative on the casino business." Jim protested, "No, no, no," as the show cut to commercial. (Probably a commercial for the QQQ.) (This writer is long, coincidentally, the QQQ.) (Not because it airs commercials every 7 minutes.) (That money would be better spent on megacap tech shares.) After the break, Jim clarified Frank's stumble, "I'm positive on the casino business."

You’d think if there was any time to talk about China ‘goin’ after’ Taiwan, it’d be now ... but no (a/k/a yesterday’s market theories ...)

It took a long time (54 minutes actually) for Monday's (8/8) Halftime Report to get good.

Guest host Frank Holland, who did an excellent job, asked Steve Weiss to opine on whether cryptocurrency has "found the floor."

"You know, it's a little like O.J. still searching for, uh, for his wife's killer. I think a lot of people are still searching for the 40- $40,000 and that store of value that's disappeared, it's the same thing," Weiss asserted.

Furthermore, "There's no there there. The- crypto just has no utility. You don't need crypto for blockchain," Weiss added.

Nobody really took that on, though Liz Young and Kevin O'Leary spoke about crypto regulation.

Meanwhile, as to stocks, Liz was asked by Frank whether this is a bull market, or a bear market rally.

Liz hemmed and hawed and called valuations "a little stretched" (Zzzzzzz).

Weiss insisted we'll see the "impact" of Fed tightening in October and September. (Note to Weiss: The market stopped caring about rate hikes in June.) Nevertheless, Weiss allowed, "We're still OK here for now."

Joe Terranova predicted a range-bound market fluctuating somewhere between 3,950 and 4,300.

Kevin O'Leary said earnings were "much better" than anticipated and could continue through year-end.

President Joe Manchin (cont’d)

In his best point of Monday's (8/8) Halftime Report, a point he made multiple times, Kevin O'Leary said demand for electric cars is so huge, there's no need for incentives, so he questioned the "immediate cash stimulus" in the Joe Manchin Bill, which O'Leary said is actually "hyperinflationary."

Joe Terranova said there will be "a lot of companies" that will "pull forward" buyback intentions. Steve Weiss said he doesn't think buyback behavior is "that significant."

O'Leary bought NVDA, one of Joe's recent Brag Trades. Joe said he was "not surprised" that NVDA set a "lower expectation."

Kevin O'Leary offered several reasons to like PLTR but said he hasn't bought it because he sees "some more downside."

President Joe Manchin (cont’d)

The star guest of Friday's (8/5) Halftime Report was Tom Lee, who didn't exactly make a bear case offered his typically bullish outlook on stocks ... but with terminology so innocuous and mundane, we can't really even put a headline on it. (Translation: Lee should've just said "It's off to the races since June 17.")

Lee said the data is allowing the Fed to "stop shocking markets." (Note to Tom: That's already happened. It doesn't matter if inflation is 15% in the next CPI or gas prices are 9 bucks a gallon; the market is tired of hearing about both and no longer cares.)

Lee said inflation is "cooling pretty rapidly"; he constantly compared stock valuations with bond valuations (Zzzzzzz).

Judge, who blatantly wondered early in the program if everyone needs to "pivot" to a "soft landing," told Lee it seems like some people are thinking they need to sell the rip rather than buy the dips. Lee said he had a "team huddle" on Thursday and found clients are indeed selling the rip, but he thinks a "growth scare" is going to drive P.E.s "up a lot."

Meanwhile, Jim Lebenthal said he thinks we're in, or set for, a "soft landing."

Rob Sechan, who had a quiet show, said markets would weaken if "the bond market's already priced in all the good news."

Sechan claimed stocks are trading at "pretty lofty levels."

CNBC's Steve Liesman observed that there's an "awful lot of pent-up demand for workers."

Later in the show, Judge asked anyone within shouting distance what they think about the new forthcoming tax on stock buybacks (cooked up by Chuck Schumer, though Judge didn't mention any names). Judge even said it feels like "the hypocrisy here is rich," wondering why members of Congress can trade stocks in a "free market" while companies won't be able to buy back shares so freely. Judge and Jim Lebenthal noted how airlines had done buybacks and then sought bailouts in 2020; Jim said "it's a hundred percent political."

Tired of hearing Jim opine on irrelevant PARA (a/k/a no matter what the report is, it’s a good report)

Thursday's (8/4) Halftime Report floated the notion of an interesting debate on streaming, only to get tripped up over the definition of "consensus."

Joe Terranova asked Jim Lebenthal about what Joe said were a series of PARA misses regarding "consensus" forecasts. Jim suggested there are "different data sources for consensus."

"This was a beat on everything that matters," Jim concluded.

Joe then asked if PARA is "insulated" from cord-cutting. Judge declared "that's not really a fair question." Jenny Harrington opined, "No one's insulated from cord-cutting."

Jim told Joe, "Streaming is the insulation against cord-cutting ... not quite sure what you're referring to."

And the next time you hear about a company miss, see if you can find some "different data sources."

So it’s riskier to buy a stock that’s going up rather than, say, PTON

Thursday's (8/4) Halftime Report produced at least one howler: Steve Weiss stating that "Every good investor has no ego."

Judge, noting some recent stock buys, called Weiss a "chaser." Weiss admitted he "didn't see the move coming, but got involved in the move."

In a controversial call, Weiss told Joe Terranova, "Oil's not gonna dictate where this market's going."

Joe confirmed he kicked MRNA out of the JOET; Joe said "Goodbye and good luck," because Joe lost 53% on it in the past year.

Weiss insisted the story "hasn't changed" and that, by the "end of next year," MRNA longs will be glad they own it.

Joe said at the top of the show that he's "rebuilding positions in growth." But Joe sold QQQ because his risk, "as price continues to move higher," supposedly "increases," in Joe's opinion.

Joe also bragged that he bought NVDA at $149 on July 5, and he bought CMG at $1,290.

"Good stuff," Judge agreed.

Joe said stock-market "intangibles" (snicker) stem from "positioning" and "sentiment."

Jenny Harrington suggested Joe was just "cherry-picking" and said the market has made a "statement" that it "really did bottom in June" and that a lot of strategies can win.

Jenny made the case for Devon and all the money it'll make with oil at today's price or even above 60; Judge asked if oil names didn't overshoot to the upside and suggested Jenny was concluding, "So the moves on the upside were justified, but the moves on the downside are not?"

Joe said he'd be underweight energy at $60 crude.

Jenny also referred to how the pendulum "swang."

If the goal is to combat inflation, why do Fed officials care where the S&P is trading?

On Wednesday's (8/3) Halftime Report, Judge certainly wasn't finding any bears.

Jim Lebenthal said this is the "real thing" rather than a "bear market rally." (We don't know exactly what "real thing" means, but as this page has already said, clearly since 7/27, "off to the races" is an accurate term.)

Judge demanded Jim tell him why the market was able to "brush off this hawkish Fed speak" in which, as is common, Federal Reserve officials try to convince people they shouldn't have bought the stocks they just bought. (Were they telling people to buy on June 17? Didn't hear that advice.) Jim said "a lot of wood has been chopped."

"Inflation does show signs of peaking," Jim asserted, pointing to gasoline.

Kari Firestone sounded bullish. "It's time to buy some stocks at these lower prices," Kari said.

Joe "don't pivot just combat inflation" Terranova said he's still long the QQQ. He said growth has been outperforming because "there appears to be this resiliency" as rates move higher without stifling earnings.

Degas Wright said he'd advise dollar-cost averaging into the market.

Kevin O'Leary said it looks like a "certainty" that there'll be "gridlock" on Nov. 8. O'Leary said he has "plenty of job openings" but "can't hire people."

"We are not in a recession," O'Leary proclaimed.

O'Leary admitted owning COIN was "brutal."

Joe said he "reached" for JPM, only to find it's "dead money." Instead, he sees "tremendous opportunity" in UBER.

Unlike others on the panel, Kari Firestone hasn't sold PYPL — maybe the year's favorite sale of just about anyone — and said "Oh yeah," she still likes it.

Jim demanded to know why Judge wasn't asking about CVS (Zzzzzz).

Degas Wright touted CAT. Kevin O'Leary said the dollar is proving a "huge headwind"; he likes DE instead.

Joe said AAPL is in an "unbelievable" breakout.

On Tuesday's (8/2) Closing Bell (the show before Judge's Overtime, hosted by Sara Eisen), James Poterba, CEO of the NBER, offered insight into that all-important definition of "recession."

Poterba said the NBER defines "recession" as "periods of time when a decline in economic activity is broadly dispersed across the economy and, and lasts for a period of at least several months. So it's depth, duration and diffusion are the 3 features of a downturn that the NBER would typically look at in trying to identify periods that would be categorized as recessions."

Jay’s back to mistakes

Greg Branch said "at the end of the day" 3 times within a couple of minutes on Tuesday's (8/2) Halftime Report.

It took, lessee, 6 days to happen, but Branch contended "Jay Powell probably made a mistake."

Branch said Powell signaled that the "program" of fighting inflation is over.

"He didn't say it was over," Judge said, but rather made some think it's the "beginning of the end."

But Branch insisted Powell was calling the "program" over.

Mike Farr actually said Branch is right, that Jay Powell said after the press conference, "Damn that's not what I meant." (Because the Fed just doesn't want anyone to buy stocks. Why doesn't the Fed take over the stock market and set the price for each security the way it does with the overnight lending rate?)

Joe Terranova again harped on his insistence that stocks are going up not because of the prospect of a pivot but because the Fed is attacking inflation.

At one point, Judge scoffed that for determining the state of the economy, CPI is "ridiculous" and "such a lagging indicator" that doesn't tell us anything about the "current state of inflation."

Joe said he's going to buy some UBER with "20 to 25% upside" after he kicks JPM out of his portfolio.

Joe left out Nov. 9, 2016

Given star billing on Monday's (8/1) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova said the type of market comeback we saw in July is reminiscent of a couple other times: "April of 2020. March of 2009."

That's pretty elite company.

Around here, we're not stock market technicians, but we do know that we've seen the off-to-the-races thing about every few years; the only problem is, you don't really know it until it's happened, and you can end up grasping at the bottom before the bottom's really here (for example, March 2022 vs. July 2022).

Joe said there's still "a lot of skepticism" that the market needs to "eradicate," which is why he remains long QQQ.

Jim Lebenthal, whose market view is trumpeted about 4 times a week on this program, stated, "I do think the lows are in."

However, "You can't expect that we're goin' up in a straight line," Jim said.

Joe offered what would be a bad sign: "I'm wrong in my assessment if the bond market now reverses and we see significant selling pressure."

Judge reported that wet blanket Dudley is warning the markets, "Don't be confident" that it's off to the races. (The Federal Reserve would prefer no one buy a stock, ever. It just irritates them, people buying stocks.) (Meanwhile, up until recently and still to some degree, they can do their own trading.) Joe said buying the market on expectation of a "pivot" is the wrong move.

Brian Belski explained that people were "way too bearish," and now there's been an "immense squeeze." Belski said the market wants to see inflation go from an "escalator down" to an "elevator down."

Judge and Leslie Picker speculated over whether David Einhorn is trying to personally stick it to Elon Musk.

Joe said the downside in TWTR seems pretty well priced in.

Mike Santoli said we have a "3-fork road" in which the market can go. That's quite a forecast.

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