CNBCfix - Fast Money Review

[CNBCfix Fast Money/Halftime Report Review Archive — March 2022]

What if it had been Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson telling that joke, and not Chris Rock?

Several things common sense tells us about the Oscars that are not (yet) making headlines ...

1. Some producer or agent (probably more than 1) has been working feverishly to try to get Will Smith and Chris Rock to agree to host the 2023 Academy Awards together.

2. Every streaming outlet, and probably a bunch of plain old cable TV channels, is enlisting writers to do a series or one-time movie on this incident.

3. That jacket worn by Chris Rock on March 27 would easily sell for 6 figures if put to auction today.

Let's try No. 3 first. Imagine owning the dress that Sacheen Littlefeather wore to the 1973 Academy Awards. (Does she still have it? It's gotta be out there somewhere.) That might be, aside from one of the statues which are not allowed to be sold, the most valuable Oscar artifact. If auctioneers struck while the iron is hot, Rock's jacket could bring in a small fortune, for charity or any other purpose. However, he might not want to sell it, either because he wants to wear it again sometime or because he doesn't want some wealthy joker using it for laughs. You might wonder if Will Smith's clothing is equally valuable. No, because it's plainer, and it surely won't be sold for a long time because he'd take heat for auctioning it for any purpose.

As for No. 2, we know that Apple, Amazon, Netflix are going to spend enormous amounts of money that aren't even rounding errors on the income statement to dramatically re-create every pop culture moment in the 21st century, just so they can further fragment the "moviegoing" audience ... and cable/broadcast networks will do it too.

No. 1 may seem unlikely ... but we're not going to bet against it actually happening.

Which brings us to Why The Slap Really occurred. We've heard from Smith supporters that the moment was simply defending a woman, which is a fine and necessary motivation ... but would this same defense have taken place against a fellow who plays boxers or football players in movies, who wasn't inconvenienced at the moment by having to present an award on national television?

Psssst! Market evidently whispering a bottom

In a sleepy episode of the Halftime Report on Wednesday (3/30), Ed Yardeni contended, "Stagflation isn't necessarily bearish for the stock market," adding later, "I think we have to consider the possibility that investors are looking at stocks as inflation hedges."

Jon Najarian said, "We're not broadly overbought."

Rob Sechan suggested energy is probably going to "take a break."

Kourtney Gibson said Disney is "the best brand in media right now."

Tom Lee on almost-equally-sleepy Overtime said the market is "really whispering pretty loudly that we've bottomed," explaining "we've probably made the low for the first half of 2022" on Feb. 24.

Massive buy signal: When Judge announced on March 14 that the SARK was higher than the ARKK

On Tuesday's (3/29) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal once again articulated why he remains bullish, saying the supposed "growth slowdown" may just be a "scare." (He said that twice during the show actually.)

That didn't stop other panelists, namely Josh Brown and Stephanie Link, from warning that it's still probably not going to be a very good year.

Josh Brown cited "the edge coming off" of the market pressure from the Ukraine crisis but said it's only an "incredible bear market rally" and that nothing is "over" in terms of market concerns.

Link said that despite the March rally, it'll be a "choppy" and "volatile" year, "at best."

Judge noted that in a recent appearance, Brown mentioned the prospect of a nuclear situation in Ukraine "multiple" times.

Despite his optimism, Jim Lebenthal said that buying the ARK stocks now is "too much risk." It sure wasn't too much risk if you'd bought 3 weeks ago.

He’s not a momentum player (except when he’s following the momentum)

Someone trying to nail down a personal investment philosophy ... probably shouldn't try to figure out what Steve Weiss was saying on Monday's (3/28) Halftime Report.

"I'm not a momentum player. I'm looking at the fundamentals. And to me, the fundamentals are not good whatsoever," Weiss said at the beginning of the show.

But about a half-hour later, Weiss said, "When you see massive momentum, as you did last week, I bought the SMH."

Weiss also said, "When things fall out of bed, or when the market flushes, that's when I go to work and buy some things." Except he didn't do that 3 weeks ago, instead still adhering to his yearlong bearish/pessimistic outlook that's overstayed its welcome.

Finally, Weiss said, "I have this sort of debate with myself. Maybe I should just be an index investor instead of a stock investor at this point. Because if you just look at the indices, then things haven't been so bad. But if you're looking at the underlying stocks, on average, you're down 40 or 50%. ... I've been able to outperform the indices, you know, not every year, but a lot of years. So that's why I stay in stocks."

And we're trying to figure out how the index isn't "so bad" but the stocks in it are down "on average" 40-50%.

Then there was Jenny Harrington, who of course urged everyone not to buy high-multiple tech stocks and claimed that people are "choosier" and that "now is exactly the perfect best time to be an active manager and start to just be really careful and pick off and choose here and there. You're gonna get incredible opportunities."

Interesting how a low-turnover money manager can be sure there are "incredible opportunities" in stocks just about to ... start.

Even Judge got skeptical of this one, stating his producer's list of panelist moves said "none" next to Jenny's name.

Jenny said she bought MMM and FL this year. "Already in the first 2 and a half, 3 months, I've already added 2, just by picking and choosing," Jenny said.

Jim’s CLF is early leader for Call of the Year (a/k/a The Retest That’s Probably Not Happening)

Judge Austerity was at it again on Thursday's (3/24) Halftime, when he's not using the show as a platform to replay Overtime soundbites from a day earlier and it prompted this page to actually wonder: What in the world does he expect his bullish panelists to say?

"Oh gosh Judge, you're right, I shouldn't be bullish anymore, thanks for the pushback."

All we can think of is some producer saying in Judge's ear, on every show, "Keep asking Jim if he's really sure about being bullish or else they'll give our hour to The Exchange."

Jim Lebenthal WAS wrong in late November or December when he said multiple times that he expected the stock market to cruise until late January. So what. He's been on fire for 10 days. It's a trading show. (At least it's supposed to be.)

The guy Judge should be grilling is Steve Weiss, who made a great call of pessimism/cautiousness/bearishness through the first 10 weeks or so of the year, then utterly botched the bottoming around March 8 or March 11 (not the actual 2022 bottom but the time to buy), classically overstaying his bear-camp welcome and resorting to trading the market he wants instead of the one he's got ever since, completely whiffing on what was one of the best weeks to go long stocks in the last decade and blundering big-time on selling CLF March 9.

Despite years of doing this show, Judge evidently doesn't realize, as this page has, that occasionally there are market bottoms during turbulent times, and then nobody can really believe that the market is actually surging higher, but it is, and then folks will spend months insisting on a "retest" that never happens (that was Jeremy Siegel later Thursday on Overtime), and then they'll still insist they're doing great "risk management" because they're only playing the options or something like that.

At the opening of Thursday's Halftime, Jim, whom Judge again called "Mr. All In," affirmed his optimistic outlook and said he agrees with the bullish outlook of Tom Lee.

Judge tried to claim the market was "simply oversold" and turned to Josh Brown.

Josh Brown, though, insisted everyone be "very honest" and admit that there could be things like chemical weapons attacks in the near future because Joe Biden actually said it's possible. (How come Brown didn't say that China is "going after" Taiwan?)

"Don't be a hero," was Brown's advice, echoed later by Bryn Talkington.

Moments later, Judge Austerity continued with his try-to-buffalo-anyone-who's-positive routine, demanding Jim explain how he can be bullish amid the concerns expressed by other panelists.

Jim asserted that there are positives out there, and "they seem stronger than the negatives."

Jim said for the 2nd time that there had been "indications" that inflation is "rolling over."

Eventually, even Jim — a first-class gentleman on the program — grew weary of Judge's routine.

"This name, or this term 'hero' has come up a lot, and you once or twice have labeled me with it. Let me be clear. I'm not trying to be anybody's hero. I don't care if anybody thinks I'm their hero," Jim said.

Later still, Judge tried to say that Jim might be "dismissive of some of the issues."

Jim did get a chance to talk about CLF. This was his top pick in the early January "Stock Summit" (which wasn't a summit) and has been one of his favorites since at least February 2021. On Dec. 31, he predicted CLF would be $30 by June 30 of this year. It's already crossed that level. Jim's on fire and leading the pack.

‘Things could actually get better’

Tom Lee, the star guest of Wednesday's (3/23) Overtime, affirmed his long-running bull case, stating, "If we avoid recession ... then stocks have discounted more than a recession."

"We could have some positive surprises in the 2nd half ... things could actually get better," Lee said.

Judge was hell-bent on asking Overtime guests whether the last 10 days or so have had "real buyers."

On Wednesday's Halftime Report, Jon Najarian said we "could be" in the all-clear, though he said he's not one of those folks who "panicked" to the downside.

"This is a resilient day," said Joe Terranova, a few hours before things turned south at the close. "Long S&P futures, that's the way I'm playing it right now."

Judge said Joe's (stale) whiteboard is "littered with writing," which is a lot more optimistic signal than recently when it was blank.

Joe said, "A more aggressive Fed is actually a more credible Fed."

Losing an election doesn’t mean a government is ‘toppled’

"I've been negative since January," said Steve Weiss on Tuesday's (3/22) Halftime Report, adding that "everything" he invests in is based on "idiosyncratic stories."

It's true he's been negative or cautious since January. Which worked great — for about 10 weeks.

But like Pete Rose vs. Gene Garber in 1978, that streak may be over, as Weiss appears to have overstayed his bearishness, clinging to the market he wants rather than the one he's got and utterly whiffing on what would've been the best Halftime trade in a year, urging people to buy on March 11 instead of advocating the opposite.

It's kind of odd that Weiss has remained so dogmatic over the past week, given his penchant for trading the previous 3 hours of market activity — not a bad inclination, given that the Halftime Report is (supposedly) a daily trading show.

On Tuesday, rather than reaffirming his hyperinflation/China-invading-Taiwan thesis (though he did mention both, a bit), Weiss was actually talking up stock buys, including old favorite MRNA and semicondutors.

Judge remarked, "I feel like you're growing more positive."

Weiss questioned Judge's description of Weiss' "persona." But as far as market outlook, "I don't think it's all in at this point," Weiss said.

"We're in a trading range," Weiss said.

Well, we don't "talk to CEOs all day long," as Weiss claims to do. But we do know that we've seen a certain movie many times in the last dozen years (no, not "The Social Network"), the one in which the stock market rallies in defiance of newspaper headlines, and people can't believe it, and it goes on to new highs.

But Weiss wasn't done, and the longer he talked, the more curious it got.

He said that "high inflation has toppled governments," and first said it won't do that in the U.S., then said "maybe it will" do just that to the Democratic White House and/or Senate.

Then out of the blue came this: "There's still no alternative to equities, so, people take money out of equities, they'll sell foolishly on the emotional down ticks," Weiss said, before suggesting "we can go lower" than another 10% correction.

Meanwhile, Josh Brown predicted "curve inversion by the summer, uh, or, or early fall."

Also curiously, Brown mentioned Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping and suggested they may be trouble for a long time given the U.S. administration. "These are 2 men who ... wanna refight World War II, they wanna pretend 1989 never happened. This is gonna be a tough few years, especially with, um, Biden, uh, at the helm, who doesn't seem particularly disposed to wanting to face this, this threat head-on," Brown said.

Judge's star guest on Closing Bell Overtime was Carl Icahn, who affirmed, when he wasn't giving the usual terrible-management argument in whatever his latest board battle is, "I am negative," suggesting there could be a "recession, or even worse," while protesting he can't make short-term market calls. Judge did not ask Carl about the "Day of Reckoning" Carl predicted in 2016.

Icahn did make an important statement, at least raising the issue, about proper treatment of animals when discussing MCD. (This page has no position on this particular dispute or MCD's approach to farming.) Carl did say "complete bull----" on live TV.

Anybody making a stock market bet on China invading Taiwan (and we doubt Weiss actually is) is a bona fide knucklehead (a/k/a has anyone notified USINDOPACOM?)

So far in 2022, Steve Weiss has seemingly been the most accurate Halftime Report panelist in expressing a stock market outlook of caution or skepticism.

That may be coming to an end, if last week's rally (best in 16 months) portends bigger things to come.

On Monday's (3/21) Halftime, Weiss wasn't giving in.

"I still think a, a tone of caution is war- warranted here," Weiss said. "It's- it's- it's kind of arrogant — as I see it — for all these bulls to come out and say 'Oh, all the negatives are known. All the negatives are known.' It's like if you're, if you're bearish or if you're cautious, you don't have the capacity to think of what the positives are."

Weiss went on to mention efficient-market hypothesis, then said, "So then the question is, and this I agree with, what are the issues going forward. And those are the issues that are keeping me from putting more money into the market. And particularly, China, if you read over the weekend, they're still dead-set on going after Taiwan. I don't know if it'll be next week, next month or 2 months. But that's not Russia. That is a huge global economy that impacts the U.S. I don't believe you're getting paid for that black swan event by investing in the market."

Nevertheless, FDX is a "great buy," Weiss said.

Judge then brought in Brian Belski, who sounded offended.

"Steve also made the, uh, the argument that it's arrogant to be bullish," Belski said. "I think- I think you have to have faith to be bullish. It's arrogant to be constantly bearish and constantly fear-filled and constantly rhetoric-filled and constantly macro-driven," Belski said.

OK, Fact-Check No. 1: Weiss didn't say it's arrogant to be bullish. He did say "all these bulls" are "kind of arrogant" if they say the negatives are known.

Belski continued, "If you actually do the work and do the math, over the first almost 90 days of 2022, earnings projections for the S&P 500 on a bonds-up basis, the number is increasing. Nobody believes it because nobody's done the work, Scott."

"You're the only one who's done the work?" Judge demanded.

"I'm the only one that's published on it Scott, because people don't want to be controversial and- and dig into the numbers," Belski said.

Judge brought back Weiss, who sounded offended at Belski's offense.

"First of all, he was listening to a different Steve, because I said none of what he said I said. I didn't say to be, you're arrogant if you're bullish, I said you're arrogant if you don't think that somebody else can see the other side."

OK, Fact-Check No. 2: No, you said "all these bulls" are "kind of arrogant" if they think the negatives are known.

Weiss continued, "And publishing a document has never determined whether you're a great investor or not. So I do do the work. I talk to CEOs all day long, every single day. And they are concerned about inputs."

So CEOs are concerned. But first, all he said was that the "particular" issue going forward is China-Taiwan.

Weiss called Belski's 5,300 a "ridiculous target" and said this is a "hyperinflation environment."

"I'm not always negative. I'm not always pessimistic," Weiss said. "I'm realistic, and I focus on risk management, which is critical for staying alive in this business over 30 years."

Belski was given a chance to respond.

"My retort is I've been in the business 32 years, I run 7 billion with a 'B' dollars, the majority of our portfolios are outperforming this year Steve so I put my money where my mouth is. And I actually do think it's ridiculous, uh, to be this negative right now, and it's ridiculous to say that we're in a hyperinflation side. I think inflation is, is yesterday's story."

Let's get back to what's most important here.

Weiss said bulls are ignoring the issues ahead ... and the first issue ahead that Weiss mentioned is China "going after Taiwan" either in 2 weeks or 2 months.

Weiss curiously mentioned, "If you read over the weekend ..." We wondered what article exactly over the weekend said China is "dead-set" on "going after" Taiwan.

Weiss is possibly referring to this N.Y. Times assessment of the situation cleverly titled "Is Taiwan Next?" (even though the article doesn't nearly suggest that) that reads like armchair, back-of-the-envelope plus and minus scribbling.

Surely if Weiss has something, satellite imagery, scoops from China's intelligence apparatus, etc., the Joint Chiefs and the folks on Taiwan should know about it?

China was doing, and will continue to do, what it's always done — wait for the West to cede control of prized geographies (that's the best word in this instance, probably) in Southeast Asia out of 1) colonial shame and 2) a possible — possible — win-win economic partnership. And the West probably would've done this in regard to Taiwan a while back ... if it weren't for those weekly missile tests from Pyongyang. And then along came a president who likes Peter Navarro. So we're back to, say, 1993 in this process.

Aside from publishing research reports, here's a fair question: Does it make more sense to say "Hey Edna, looks like stocks might have bottomed in February, buy the S&P" ... or "Hey Edna, some guy on CNBC says China's going after Taiwan within 2 months, buy Raytheon and crude" (even though that guy himself hasn't indicated what "going after" trades he has put on).

Doc said March 8 was a big "flush" day in options.

Judge himself sounded offended when Jim Lebenthal said, "Even at the lows of last month, when the market was down 13% peak to trough, the S&P 500 was still up 13% over the prior year. A prior year in which Mike Wilson had been calling for a bear market the whole time. If you're following Mike Wilson, you're not making money."

Overtime off to good start

It wasn't too long ago when the NYSE trading floor was considered an essential part of business TV programming, a sort of "home base" of activity that was nevertheless gradually shifting more and more from in-person to online.

Now, Judge interviews people on Closing Bell in their living rooms, and there seems no interest on the part of CNBC in rerouting very many of those guests into either Englewood Cliffs, the NYSE or Nasdaq.

So be it.

The biggest difference between the old Closing Bell 2nd hour and the current Closing Bell Overtime is that Judge has upped the octane from Wilfred Frost, talking far more about stocks than regulatory/corporate issues.

On Overtime, Judge has reeled in an extensive range of guests (we can't really call them "panelists") who have delivered a healthy cross-section of soundbites on a per-minute basis that beats what's heard on Halftime.

There are still several CNBC programs that focus on workplace trends, lifestyles, regulatory and/or the political scene. Those formats have always been susceptible to Another Stock-Picking Show. Which is kind of what happened at 4 p.m. Eastern.

The first week of Overtime was rather modest in its promotions — Jeffrey Gundlach on Wednesday/Fed Day was trumpeted, but otherwise, a fairly quiet launch. Whether Judge tried vigorously to land Jamie Dimon and failed or simply didn't deem it necessary, we have no idea, but that's fine.

So far, Judge is overseeing a success.

Ricky Sandler on Thursday's (3/17) Overtime predicted a "new paradigm" that isn't just about "narrative and TAM." (That's what other folks call a "risk-off market.") He predicted the stock market ends 2022 "here or lower." Steve Weiss said on Friday's (3/18) Halftime, "I don't disagree with Ricky." Weiss said the market's not "out of the woods" but stuck in a "trading range."

On Thursday's (3/17) Halftime, Josh Brown reaffirmed, "I think we're in a bear-market rally."

Jeremy Siegel on Thursday's Halftime predicted "more upside surprises on interest rates."

On Friday, Weiss claimed the recent downfall of well-known high-P.E. tech names "reminds me of 2000, when the Internet bubble burst."

‘Only me and Ackman being rational’

As this page likes to say, Halftime Report episodes airing an hour before Fed revelations are pretty much obsolete by 2 p.m. Eastern time.

Judge Austerity couldn't wait to start in on all the supposed disaster ahead, as soon as Jim Lebenthal asserted that "Things look really good in the economy."

Judge Austerity actually said "They do look good" (earlier in the week, he was suggesting it wasn't that good of an economy before the Ukraine invasion) and questioned whether they'll still look good "once the Fed starts to embark on this new regime."

"New regime." That's a good one.

Steve Liesman said, "There's still substantial headline risk from this war," which nevertheless didn't stop Josh Brown from saying later in the program, "I honestly believe it's only me and Bill Ackman being rational about how bad things could potentially get, militarily."

Joe Terranova said that people buying SBUX on Wednesday were "basically buying Howard Schultz." But Pete Najarian said he's "kinda kickin' myself" for not buying SBUX around 80.

Judge Austerity pronounced "Route 80" as "Root" rather than "Rout."

On the Closing Bell Overtime, Jeffrey Gundlach did call the Nasdaq "oversold" and a good buy for a couple months. We didn't get to the 5 p.m. Fast Money.

‘At least a trading bottom’ (a/k/a Are they really doing 2 hours a day of this stuff, plus Fast Money?)

The headline from Tuesday's (3/15) Halftime Report came from Rob Sechan, who wasn't even really on the show but dialed in to express his market outlook to Judge Austerity.

Sechan contended this is "at least a trading bottom" and maybe even a "permanent bottom."

"Sentiment is extremely negative right now," Sechan added.

We doubt that anyone for a while is going to echo this page and suggest that Nasdaq 12,000-ish is something like late March 2020, because they'll all parrot, on some level, to some degree, Judge Austerity's constant pushback about HOW IN THE WORLD CAN STOCKS GO UP WHEN THE FED IS HIKING AND MIGHT BE MAKING GRAVE MISTAKES!!!!!!!! (not an actual quote).

But then again, Kari Firestone opened the show declaring it's time to buy beaten-down tech and start trimming stuff that's worked over the last 3 months or so.

Judge Austerity and Kari rattled off a bunch of well-known high-multiple Nasdaq names too numerous to list here; Kari said they've been hit so hard, they aren't even on the "bargain rack" any more, but are cheaper.

Degas Wright said he likes "quality names," but "I don't agree with just buying the bottom fishers." He likes MGM, but unlike Kari, doesn't like DKNG.

The star guest was Tom Lee, who probably should've been booked for Closing Bell Overtime but admittedly didn't have much to say this time. Judge Austerity told Lee that buying the dip "hasn't worked at all." Lee said he hasn't really been in the buy-the-dip camp and has been warning that the first half of 2022 could be treacherous, but going forward, "the risk/reward's just too strong."

Jon Najarian said he's "completely out" of energy stock exposure, only in calls.

Josh Brown said "odds are" that this isn't the bottom and cautioned that "10 times in a row," inflation spikes have been followed by recessions. And that's where, once again, this page needs to say a word about today's government/Federal Reserve. If you're actually betting on austerity/inflation over $600/$1,400/$2,000 checks and QE and all other sorts of goodies, you've got guts.

As far as we can tell (and we sometimes struggle with math), the 2/24 bottom of 4114.65 hasn't been breached.

‘I just don’t see the recession’

On Judge Austerity's 2nd show of the day (3/15), Liz Young on Overtime said we're starting to see "some of these things" that confirm a market bottom.

Adam Parker twice said "intellectually honest" (snicker), once about people not being able to predict short-term markets (so why does he think he can predict 2-3-year markets) and then something about comparing 2022 vs. 2023 earnings during which either 1) we didn't hear him correctly or 2) he said below when he meant above (or something like that).

Dan Greenhaus used the term "factually honest" (snicker) to argue that the Fed's never done a soft landing.

Greenhaus insisted stocks are expensive by any measure except when compared with bonds.

Greenhaus said the Fed made a "humongous mistake" over the last 12-18 months.

(And actually, it was all some pretty crisp dialogue that probably beats Wilf Frost's interview with some bank exec.)

Judge Austerity (this is how he earns the nickname even though he doesn't actually use the term "Austerity") said "I wonder if people are kidding themselves" thinking that the Fed is going to turn more dovish this spring and summer.

Steve Weiss called in and said "I wouldn't go all in here." He bought more MU. Jim Lebenthal appeared on the show and said "I just don't see the recession that would keep me out of the market."

Rooting for Judge (but no Tom Brady, no Mark Zuckerberg, no Bill Gross, no Dick Fuld ...)

If we were to scientifically attempt to determine what's the most important time slot for business television (actually that's an interesting question), we might guess 4 p.m. Eastern.

It's bound to be the most newsworthy, occurring while most earnings reports are released and companies conduct conference calls and the market closing is analyzed.

But longtime viewers know that a lot of the excitement (as it were) of business television is generated not so much by the shows themselves — but whatever's going on in the financial markets.

Monday (3/14), that was basically very little.

Which is too bad, because Judge's debut of Closing Bell Overtime — which is basically the noon Eastern Halftime Report getting another go-round at 4 p.m. — kinda lacked pizzazz.

While Judge has been trumpeting an A-list roster of guests this week, Monday's lineup was more or less a typical Halftime Report group: Brad Gerstner, Mike Wilson, Dan Niles, Brian Belski, Victoria Fernandez. And given that this is a risk-off market (maybe not for long), there wasn't a whole lot they could say besides the usual "be cautious" or "don't try to be a hero" (not actual quotes from the show).

Scott Minerd, on the equally new (well, sorta ... not exactly "new" ...) 3 p.m. Closing Bell with Sara, made as much news as anyone, suggesting a "topping out" of yields is in progress.

Nevertheless, Judge was chipper and seems to be locked in to this promotion. Whether he's overseeing a stock show ... or simply Wilf Frost with a Virginia accent ... remains to be seen.

Sometimes it's not what the reviewers think; it's what the home office thinks. So we looked up CNBC.com to see how it was presenting clips of the inaugural episode. Under the "Top Video" portal, only Brad Gerstner's comments about how stocks could go lower before they go higher made it. (That's the headline on the video; he also said the market's in the "neighborhood of a tradeable bottom.")

Clips of Mike Wilson suggesting bonds and Brian Belski defending his market outlook were findable.

But surprisingly, CNBC wasn't touting the new show anything like, say, the Jim Cramer Investing Club or Shep Smith's 5-times-a-day news reruns.

By Monday evening, there was basically no indication of a new show on CNBC's home page.

When Judge marked the supposed "10-year anniversary" of the Halftime Report last October, he did land Carl Icahn, David Einhorn and David Tepper, not a bad crew, especially at a time of a much more sexier stock market.

Obviously, CNBC wants as much stock-picking on-air as possible, which makes sense (remember "Buy, Sell or Hold" segments with Ted David and Sue Herera?), but does it also mean there's a serious creative deficit in which the only actual "new" idea of the last few years was the Shep Smith disaster?

Anyone attempting to read between the lines here has to have wondered, "Did this come down to either giving Halftime an extra hour, or Fast Money an extra hour?" ('Cause it sure seems like it must've.)

Judge, who once billed himself as a "story chaser" on his Twitter handle, generally does the typical pushback button-pushing on Halftime in which anyone who's expressed bullishness in 2022 has been greeted with some kind of response that goes like "YOU'D BUY STOCKS IN THE FACE OF FED AUSTERITY???????" (not an actual quote).

It'd be nice if he could parlay those compliments from Al Michaels and his on-location Super Bowl experience into some tough gets on the interview circuit.

As always, we do want to see Judge and the Halftime crew succeed.

Stocks could actually go lower

On Monday's (3/14) Closing Bell Overtime (not sure any CNBC show needs 3 words, and it's not really "overtime" of anything), Dan Niles congratulated Judge and joked "it's too bad to have you working overtime though."

Judge asked Brian Belski about Belski's optimistic 5,300 call. Belski said earnings are actually improving from a few months ago.

Brad Gerstner said succeeding at stock-picking is a "hard game" and "we're down on the year." But like Brian Belski, Gerstner said things could be a lot better over the next 1-3 years.

Then again, Gerstner said we could go "lower before we go higher," a comment that CNBC.com chose for a headline.

Jon Najarian said Closing Bell Overtime is an "idea whose time has come." Doc bought some VIX call spreads and S&P puts.

SARK vs. the ARKK

Monday's (3/14) Halftime Report (Zzzzzzzz) crew seemed to sense that they were merely the opening act on this day (gulp and maybe forever, who knows).

Jim Lebenthal started off defending a ceiling on AAPL, stating, "I see no way that it can expand its multiple in a regime where interest rates are slowly going to rise."

He predicted AAPL will go higher, but the market will go "more higher."

Joe Terranova explained that JOET sold AAPL on Jan. 28 for $175. #momentum

Judge seemed most interested during the program with trumpeting that "The SARK is trading at a higher price than the ARKK."

"Isn't that the ultimate sign of sentiment?" Judge asked Jim Lebenthal.

Jim said "It's A sign of sentiment."

Kevin O'Leary said "we're close" to a bottom.

Liz Ann Sonders, who like most people in the past 2 months sorta advocated for doing nothing, said, "The best strategy at this point is to not try to kinda game this."

Kevin O'Leary talked up BABA. Jim Lebenthal called it "uninvestable." Joe Terranova called it "an options trade at best."

Jim’s basically right — and March 2022 could even be March 2020

Friday's (3/11) Halftime Report quickly pitted Judge vs. Jim "all in" Lebenthal in a battle over market direction.

Jim contended, "This market is one headline away from a rip higher" and "You see oil below a hundred dollars in the next week or two, this market's gonna rip."

Well, we honestly don't think that's a big deal. The market "rips" higher about every 3 days. The problem is the 2 days in between.

Then in his most cogent comment, Jim added, "It's more likely that things get better from here, not worse."

Judge grumbled that Jim was painting "like the prettiest picture I've ever seen, and part of what you say Jim is just not true."

"Not the prettiest picture you've ever seen," Jim insisted.

"We were slowing down before oil made its move," Judge insisted.

"Temporary," Jim responded, saying "Temporary" about 4 times.

Moments later, Judge made a statement that can't possibly be true: "I haven't heard anybody come on this network who's as bullish as Jim Lebenthal. I'm not talking about this program. I'm talking about the network (sic)."

"I think you're engaging in hyperbole," Jim told Judge.

Judge continued, "It's undeniable that earnings are slowing from where they were, and they may continue do so in a higher-rate environment."

Jim insisted we're only in a "mid-cycle slowdown."

Well, here's what Judge may be underestimating ... None of the activity in the monstrous invasion of Ukraine, or the world response, seems designed for the long haul. Yes, it could still be a long haul. The invaders somehow grossly envisioned driving tanks into town squares while receiving "liberator" cheers, learned within a day or two they weren't going to get them, and now can't wait to go home and are looking for an out and they enjoy making deals all the time anyway and they're likely going to make another one and all while governments have become extremely sensitive in the last couple years to giving their pandemic-weary citizens more than enough cushion for turbulent times ... and given all of that, this seems a lot more like March 2020 than September 2008. ... And if Judge thinks bank policymakers and governments are going to tell everyone "Sorry, nothing we can do," then he hasn't been in Englewood Cliffs, but Mars, for the last dozen years.

Jason Snipe suggested there's "more volatility ahead" in the "short run."

Jon Najarian insisted some consumers will be "dialing down from Walmart."

We think we heard Dan Ives suggest that "Docusign could get under drinking age." Ouch. (This writer is long DOCU.)

Dan Ives said AMZN is the reason RIVN is "not down more."

Doc said, "I think all energy goes up for basically the next 3-6 months across the board."

On Thursday's (3/10) Halftime, Josh Brown chuckled at his previous dismissal of the benefits of an AMZN split. "People like the flexibility of buying more of something even if you shrink it," Brown said, talking about chopping Kit Kats into 8 pieces at half the previous length but charging $1 more. Actually, that argument suggests that any stock over $10 or so should probably be split, but, oh well ...

Fish: Crude bottom $80

The star guest of Wednesday's (3/9) Halftime Report was Mark Fisher, who of course opined on the oil market.

"There is significant tail risk depending on what happens in the, uh, in obviously, Ukraine," Fish said. "We were going to 120 even without Ukraine. It was just that, what's happened there has just fast-forwarded the whole script."

"The world is basically telling you that we're out of stuff," Fish added, and he said it may not even be reality but "perception of reality."

"Buying back-month crude," such as December contracts, "is a better risk-reward trade than going ahead and buying the front of the board at this point," Fisher said.

Judge asked Fish about a previous quote about oil rising because of a "Russia situation" in which Fish predicted a "huge supply increase" from OPEC. Judge said that hasn't happened yet. But, "There's gonna be an OPEC response. There has to be," Fish asserted.

Joe Terranova asked Fish about whether commodities should be considered an asset class. Fish said yes and suggested the "bottom of the market" for crude is $80.

Jon Najarian suggested crude may range in the "neighborhood of 110 to 140." He thinks fertilizer trades work "for months."

Fish said being long nat gas into winter is "the best risk/reward trade on the board."

Brown gets MRNA at $125

On Wednesday's (3/9) Halftime Report, Josh Brown wasn't on the panel but dialed in to explain that he bought MRNA. He said it reached his "ludicrous" buy price of $125 a day earlier. (He also said it's on a "75% drawdown" from its all-time high, which surely would prompt Mel to wonder whether it ever "deserved" to be that high, if she were guest-hosting.)

Brown said that if there's another variant, the stock "could easily go to $200."

Longtime MRNA fan Steve Weiss dialed in too, endorsing the trade and stating it was the only time he wanted Brown to keep talking. "I think there's a lot of upside," Weiss said, conceding it got "perhaps too high ... now it's too cheap."

Weiss just bought FDX and "added" to XPO. However, he sold CLF. Weiss said commodities were a sell-the-news when Joe Biden announced the ban on Russian oil, and Weiss thinks CLF "got ahead of itself." Longtime CLF fan Jim Lebenthal, who was on the show, said it's a "very volatile stock," but he's holding on.

Sarat Sethi talked up AXP and UBER (this writer is long UBER).

Joe Terranova said he bought MAR (Zzzzzzz). Joe said Wednesday's market action allows people to "finally look forward" and realize the "tremendous pent-up demand" about reopening. All well and good, but we remember hearing all about these "reopening" trades a year ago.

Judge said he "can't remember" a time with this kind of "flurry of activity" in panelist trades to start the show.

‘There’s no THE bottom’

On Wednesday's (3/9) Halftime Report, Judge asked Chris Hyzy if 2/24 is the bottom.

"If you pick the right time frame, it's one of the bottoms," was Hyzy's not-terribly-convincing answer.

"You're gonna have multiple bottoms. There's no THE bottom, right, we all know that," Hyzy added.

We've tried to process that quote since Hyzy said it, and honestly, we're not really sure what it means.

Jon Najarian said he saw Lee Cooperman at the Wall Street Billionaires Conference in Palm Beach; Doc said one of Lee's picks is COOP (the company presumably has nothing to do with Lee's last name).

Doc, meanwhile, is "buying a ton of energy stocks still."

Brenda Vingiello said, "The economy is still really healthy."

Judge read a quote from Rick Rieder, who wasn't on the show, in which Rieder said he's taking a "measured" approach by "holding a good deal of cash for now" but being prepared to use it.

‘Around 4,000’ for S&P

Judge's Halftime Report on Tuesday (3/8) basically continued with its don't buy/don't short dual advice. (So why do they even need a program aside from the unusual options activity detected by Market Rebellion?)

"It's treacherous out there," said Jenny Harrington, adding "2022 is going to be a very hard year" and this will be an "asynchronous (snicker) correction."

Bryn Talkington suggested the S&P support level is "around 4,000" and perhaps "300 for the Q's."

Judge didn’t say a word about Ackman’s claim of World War III

In a sluggish, tepid, stagnant beginning to Monday's (3/7) Halftime Report that settled virtually nothing, nobody curiously was urging shorting the market.

Steve Weiss claimed, "I still think there's too much optimism out there."

"Don't buy yet, it's not time to buy yet," Weiss advised. But moments later, he added, "Don't start shorting now."

Well, if there's still "too much optimism," isn't the market a short?

Later on, Weiss said, "You don't have the Fed there backstopping you anymore." Yeah, right. #anotherFedcallbasedon2.5daysoftrading

(Weiss didn't say anything this time about China "goin' after" Taiwan.)

Josh Brown said, "It's as clear as a bell that we're in a statistical bear market for most stocks." Nevertheless, Brown questioned why anyone would want to start getting pessimistic about stocks now.

Joe Terranova contended, "We're in the midst of a U-shaped recovery." Asked to explain by Judge, Joe mentioned "exacerbation" a couple of times.

Ed Yardeni told Judge he thinks it's a stagflation environment; "it's getting to be a little bit of a deja vu with the 1970s."

Yardeni though suggested Jay Powell got a "reprieve" in how tough he has to be against inflation. Yardeni doesn't see a "Volcker 2.0" (sure, that's gonna happen again) from this Fed.

Despite the turmoil in the world and markets, Yardeni asserted that corporate earnings will hold up "reasonably well."

Weiss said he bought SBSW.

Judge and Phil LeBeau tackled the Adam Jonas note on limits to car production, as well as the clip in which Jim Farley tells Phil, "Don't bet against Ford." Judge said, "I don't need necessarily Jim Farley to, to tell me, 'Don't bet against Ford.' That's great, what else is he gonna say? Tell me where you're gonna get the nickel."

Jonathan Duskin was on the show again to discuss KSS. He said Wall Street was just as disappointed with the company's agenda as Macellum. Judge though suggested "those earnings weren't bad." Duskin said he didn't think the numbers were that great, saying the company is employing a "very high-risk strategy." Duskin also said the company isn't doing anything with its real estate. And this is a rather dull corporate battle.

On the 5 p.m. Fast Money, Guy Adami again touted the 2nd half of this year and said oil's move Monday has the "earmarks" of a "blowoff top."

Is China waiting for the Ukraine invasion to end before it starts ‘goin’ after’ Taiwan?

Immediately into Friday's (3/4) Halftime Report, Bryn Talkington cracked people up with a stock market slogan, saying, "There's no bad weather; it's just bad wardrobe."

Jim Lebenthal said the S&P 500 is in a "slight correction," but you're not feeling pain if you're in "value and cyclical" plays; rather, the pain is in the ARKK stocks.

Judge said "38% of the S&P is in a bear market."

(At the end of the show, Jim suggested buying the S&P 500 index as his Final Trade. Judge pointed out that Jim was saying earlier in the show that you have to dig below the index level. Jim said in that case, he'd pick CLF.)

Judge made a geopolitical prediction. "So the story's not getting better. If anything, it's about to get worse," Judge said.

Jon Najarian delved into a lengthy military history to boast about how he didn't believe like "some people" did that this was going to be a "quick, minor incursion" by Russia.

Doc said "no way" should you be buying "high-flying" stocks. (Unless they come up on HeatSeeker.)

Weiss insists ‘You can’t pick bottoms’ — but he’s sure this isn’t one (a/k/a it doesn’t matter whether you’re ‘investing’ or ‘trading,’ if the stock is going lower, you shouldn’t buy it)

Judge opened Thursday's (3/3) Halftime Report by asking Josh Brown if Citi's call that the bottom is in is correct.

Brown gave a really long response but didn't answer the question.

Steve Weiss said he gives C "more credence" than others who have said "buy every dip" on the way down.

"You can't pick bottoms, you can't pick tops," Weiss said, a curious comment on a show which purports to make short-term trading calls.

But then, as for a bottom, Weiss asserted, "I just don't think we're there yet." (But they're impossible to pick anyway.)

Weiss said "in a perfect world," he'd like to see the market P.E. reach 14 or 13. But, "I'm not gonna wait for that." Later, Jenny Harrington misquoted him on that comment, something Weiss corrected.

Judge said Pete Najarian told producers the Citi call is just a "nothing burger." Pete thundered that this a great trading environment, but it's "really, really difficult" to "invest."

But it's evidently not difficult to invest when someone buys a batch of calls in something. Pete likes HOOD, because someone bought the 12 calls.

Judge questioned if people shouldn't be buying when the market is "treacherous." Weiss made another non-bottom call, stating, "There's not enough blood in the streets."

Josh Brown's professional microphone, by the way, is most impressive, something every panelist should've invested in at the beginning of the pandemic (it's not like they don't have the money for it).

‘2/24 might actually be the low’

On Wednesday's (3/2) Fed-shortened Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal said the key word is "resolution."

Jim said that once the Ukraine conflict becomes "clearer" in the next couple of weeks, it'll be time to "dust off the 'all-in' moniker."

Joe Terranova said "we've got that guidance now" from the Fed that the market covets, though he concedes the Fed's direction may not be correct long term.

Steve Weiss said Jerome Powell made his approach clear Wednesday. "All he cares about is getting inflation under control," Weiss asserted, but as a result of the Ukraine conflict, "Inflation got much worse."

Tom Lee, generally the star guest whenever he's on, called March 15 now just a "formality"; Lee said Powell made an "incrementally dovish move" and "the 2/24 might actually be the low for the first half."

Brian Belski said Powell "did a masterful job today."

Time to go home

On Tuesday's (3/1) Halftime Report, Jon Najarian said, "We're gonna see 120 crude so fast if this keeps getting worse over in Ukraine."

"Well there's no reason to believe that things in Ukraine are gonna get any better, uh, certainly anytime soon," Judge said.

It's probably too much to hope that this monstrosity in Ukraine could suddenly end in a good way. Because of the heroism on Ukraine's streets, it's not impossible.

The ideal development for the West is basically this — "OK, if you turn our banks back on, we'll go home."

It may actually get to that point. For the time being, as Russia's dictator and those who serve him face a choice between slaughtering humans at their homes or taking a deal, there is probably going to be back-channel talk that goes something like "If you drop all the sanctions and promise not to admit Ukraine into NATO, we'll pull out."

That's a (renewed) first offer. But the West is very strong here. There are, possibly, maybe with a little creativity, ways to turn these tanks around, never to cross that border again, Kyiv intact and thriving.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday's Halftime, Josh Brown said he remains convinced we're "in the midst of a real bear market," but he's hopeful we're "at least halfway through."

Jenny Harrington said FL "fell like a gift from heaven" into her portfolio on Friday.

Bryn Talkington called Russia a "Third World country with First World nukes."

Ed Yardeni said on Tuesday's Halftime Report that perhaps the uglier things get in Ukraine, the better the chance of "some negotiated cease-fire and maybe even solution to this thing."

Welcome back, Judge

Judge returned to the helm of Monday's (2/28) Halftime Report, thankfully fairly chipper, after a not-so-mild case of COVID-19.

Judge posted on Twitter last week, "Triple vaxxed and still feel like crap with Covid. Day three of intense sore throat. Can't imagine this without the shot."

A lot of CNBCers have contracted COVID in the last couple years, and thankfully, to our knowledge, most times, it's not even newsworthy.

Judge's messages are a reminder that this disease is still out there, still capable of upending lives. Those messages came just as CNBC was announcing Judge will host the 2nd hour of Closing Bell, to be called "Closing Bell Overtime," starting in early March. We can't wait to see the launch.

We're glad, like the crew on Monday's Halftime, that Judge is up and at 'em again.

Jim: Bottom’s in

Judge opened Monday's (2/28) Halftime Report asking Jim Lebenthal if we can "definitively" say that the bottom's in.

Jim said "Yes" and shrugged off any tweets about how he might be a "fool." (Our suggested solution: Don't read Twitter.)

Judge asked Joe Terranova if he agrees. Joe said "I love Jim's confidence," but Joe is "selling" because of a "risk-management perspective" in which he thinks institutional investors believe the market is already in a "malaise."

Judge didn't think Joe answered the question, so Judge asked again. Joe said "I don't know the answer to that," but a retest of the lows is possible because of "what appears to be a crazy man" in Russia.

Pete Najarian called this "an unbelievable trading environment."

Jim said he wouldn't chase defense stocks right at the moment, rather, let them "settle down for a couple of days." Joe Terranova, however, said you can buy several defense stocks "today." Joe cited the expression "Oversold markets don't crash."

‘Onshoring is gonna be very disinflationary’

Panelists on Friday's (2/25) Halftime Report, guest-hosted by Melissa Lee, weren't exactly sure that it's time to plunge in to the stock market.

Steve Weiss said he took off his hedges, but he still has "a ton of cash though."

Jon Najarian likened the current rally to the 2016 election-overnight rally. But he said "we need to get past war" until the market can see "much more appreciation." He said he'd be "aggressively" selling calls.

Amy Raskin called the market "slightly overvalued."

Nevertheless, "In the short term, we've probably flushed enough," offered Liz Young.

Brian Belski said he likes the doubting of this market, and of 29 corrections since 1970, "only 7 of them turned into bear markets."

Liz Young actually asked Belski to "define bullish."

At one point, in an economics-type of observation that needed a lot more follow-up, Belski claimed, "Onshoring is gonna be very disinflationary."

The most provocative Halftime Report comments on the Ukraine situation were heard Wednesday (2/23) as Sully guest-hosted. Jim Lebenthal said, "2 months from now, do we really think we're gonna be worried about what's going on in the eastern region of Ukraine? I don't, OK. Let me be clear — I don't." Jon Najarian said, "Well, Brian, you talked about 1994. We promised Russia at that time too, as well as Ukraine, that we would not continue to expand, uh, NATO to surround them. And then we've gone back on that promise. Am I surprised that the Russian leader is pushing back against that? Not at all. I think somebody at some point would push back against that because, you know, we're putting them in a box. And they don't like being in a box. I'm not justifying it. I'm just saying that that's the reality, Brian."

So ‘goin’ after’ Taiwan has been reduced to ‘ratchet up the talk’ on Taiwan

Josh Brown on Thursday's (2/24) Halftime Report had a great recollection of Maria Bartiromo's delivery on CNBC.

"She would like start every interview with, 'So — are you putting money to work here? Are you putting money to work here? Are you putting- she never got a no."

The reason? "Professionals who run long-only, fully invested funds have to buy," Brown explained.

Brown correctly pointed out that Steve Weiss, probably the show's most prominent market skeptic throughout the early portion of 2022, "has been right" about being "somewhat hands-off" toward the market this year.

Weiss and Brown actually shared a friendly exchange, and Weiss said, "This is a lot like Pavlov's dog," in which the market goes down and "people think they have to buy."

Meanwhile, Weiss again talked about China and Taiwan, twice actually, first saying Russia's Ukraine invasion was a "major move" to be followed by China making a "major move on Taiwan." Later in the show, he brought up China-Taiwan again, though he said China doesn't have to "physically invade" but just "ratchet up the talk on it."

So China's "major move," unlike Russia's "major move," is going to be to say the same things about Taiwan that it's been saying for 70 years? And we should hold off on stock buying because of it?

We couldn't help though but be skeptical when Bryn Talkington said that "going back to Vietnam, the day of the invasion has been the day to buy, not the day to sell," as if someone has found near-unanimous data on that subject by analyzing every headline-making global skirmish over the last 60 years.

Bryn also interestingly gave herself a challenge — explain the ceiling on PTON shares in a soundbite. Bryn said she thinks PTON will stay in the 30s and 40s and not climb back into the 100s "because it's a- they sell equipment with an expensive subscription model."

Hmmmm. That kind of description actually sounds impressive. If she had said "It's just another fitness fad fading with the pandemic," that would be a better argument.

Mel challenges ‘price is truth’

When it comes to commenting about the stock market, there tends to be a serious recency bias — in which any share price of the past that's markedly different than the current share price must be assumed to be somehow "wrong."

Such was the case on Thursday's (2/24) Halftime Report, when Josh Brown told guest host Missy Lee about buying RH.

Brown said RH was "almost $750 a share" a while back, but he bought it Thursday morning around $360. Mel said she didn't want to "bog down" the conversation, but "just because the stock was at 700-something dollars, doesn't mean it should've ever been at 700-something dollars."

"What do you mean should?" Brown correctly wondered.

"Maybe it was overpriced then, maybe it never deserved that valuation, I mean, I- The notion that you're buying it at half-price implies that it should have been at that price to begin with," Mel claimed.

Well, she's wrong. Lee is correct in strongly implying that the term "half-price" is bogus. But "the notion" that a stock is "half-price" implies that it will regain its old high, not that it should've been lower a while back.

And Brown didn't call it "half-price" or put anything like a $750 target on RH. He only said it's "very attractive" to him to buy "really high-quality stocks" at "half the price they were selling at a few months ago."

Evidently, (#momentumtradingwarning), Lee thinks any stock that goes down "should've" been lower weeks or months ago.

HES, Joe Terranova's favorite stock "tethered" to the price of oil, was $64 last August, $95 now. Does that mean last August, it didn't "deserve" to be that low?

Pete Najarian called the market's recovery as of noontime "pretty extraordinary"; he shoulda seen what the Nasdaq did by 4 p.m.

In other words, it’s a risk-off market

The Halftime Report panel is evidently under contractual obligation to make fun of high-P.E. tech stocks during every episode; on Wednesday (2/23), it wasn't really even Jenny Harrington, but Joe Terranova.

Joe asserted there's been a "dynamic shift" (snicker) in which "we've gone back to this stock market being your parents' and your grandparents' stock market," saying the nonprofitable fallen tech stars are "not coming back."

Sure. Tech stocks are never going up again.

Jim Lebenthal, who in November and December kept insisting that the market would be great through late January, chortled apparently about all those blokes who have the audacity to buy stocks on their own, stressing that "this is actually a profession," which "some investors" are learning "the hard way."

Joe still likes saying ‘penalty box’

Given all the stuff going on in the world, Tuesday's (2/22) Halftime Report, guest-hosted by Sully, had about all the sense of urgency of a ... preseason game.

Jim Lebenthal opened by assuring viewers, "This is what a correction looks like."

Josh Brown said that no one on TV — Russia or U.S. — really knows what's going to happen in Eastern Europe. But he said he likes taking advantage of the "indiscriminate selling" from severe market downdrafts, a good point he's made previously.

Joe Terranova suggested that retail investors are "probably participating a little bit more than they should be in this environment."

Joe also stressed the difference between a "price correction" and "time correction."

Jim said there's something of a return to normal life; "People are out, OK. There are crowds everywhere."

Joe reached back into the past for one of his favorite slogans, telling Sully, "Brian there's this place, it's called the penalty box. And I believe in the penalty box. And right now, there's a lot of names I've owned that are in the penalty box."

Sully and Stacy Rasgon shared a good joke about hanging around in the business for a long time.

Josh Brown made an observation that we wish Steve Weiss had been around to hear: "ESG is great, because there's actually no definition. You can just basically say whatever you're doing is ESG, and feel better about yourself for the rest of the day."

Clip of Joe opining on BA share price appears in 73rd minute of Rory Kennedy’s Boeing documentary ‘Downfall’ on Netflix

Netflix this week released "Downfall: The Case Against Boeing," a documentary by Rory Kennedy about the 737 Max crashes.

"Downfall" includes clips from business television, including Dennis Muilenburg's interview with Fox's Maria Bartiromo ... and a Halftime Report discussion about Boeing's share price (see image above).

In a soundbite that takes less than 3 seconds, Joe Terranova is heard to say, "This is a company that yeah, 500's a reasonable number."

Based on the stock price info on the screen, we believe this episode aired Thursday, Aug. 16, 2018 (2 months before the first Max crash). The archives here didn't do a "full" report for that day, but there are a couple sentences about it, and we know Joe was on the show that day. Who would predict such a seemingly forgettable stock-price assessment would surface years later in a movie? Probably, an analyst that day had given the stock a $500 price target, though we couldn't find an online article from August 2018 indicating as much.

Kennedy must not have seen the Halftime Report from April 26, 2018, in which a different panelist opined that Boeing's CEO should get a "standing ovation every time he walks around."

Documentaries typically convey a point of view. In "Downfall," former Boeing engineers and a few outside observers trace the 737 Max tragedies to Boeing's acquisition of McDonnell Douglas in the 1990s, suggesting Boeing cared about quality while McDonnell Douglas cared more about the stock price, and eventually, McDonnell Douglas CEO Harry Stonecipher would run the whole company.

Documentaries about businesses tend to find material from business television. Think about all those 2008 Too Big To Fail productions you've seen with images of Dick Fuld smiling (last we heard about him was something about selling a Florida mansion last May; this page has prodded Judge to get an interview with Fuld, with no apparent success), or fall of Enron or WorldCom, or even the famous "Startup.com," about those guys with the ludicrous "govworks" venture who boasted about their Internet business on CNN and were seen as poster boys for the dot-com bubble.

"Downfall" reminds us that something went horribly wrong at such an elite company, that there were hundreds of souls on those planes, and that their survivors deal with these tragedies every day.

‘We’re in a bear market’

On Friday's (2/18) quiet but informative Halftime Report, Josh Brown indicated these aren't the best of times on Wall Street.

"We're in a bear market. We're in a correction. And it's not over yet," Brown said.

Judge mentioned a few comments from the Cathie Wood interview a day earlier, including the supposed 5-year time horizon. Stephanie Link said that while she agrees with much of what Wood says, she doesn't think a 5-year outlook is "a prudent way to- of investing, quite frankly."

In the category of Profanity that Escapes Censors on Live TV, Dan Nathan on Friday's (2/18) Closing Bell pointed to the decline of Spotify and other high-multiple tech stocks and said it's "not about the Wall Street machine this time" but rather, "Investors lost their g---amn minds here."

Actually, it all really comes down to what the revenues are

The star guest of Thursday's (2/17) Halftime Report was Cathie Wood, who Judge announced at the top of show would be "live and on the record." (As if a live TV interview could possibly be "off the record.")

Judge impressively gave Cathie several opportunities to make lengthy, uninterrupted statements, although admittedly, a few speeches later in the program could've been cut short.

Cathie said her biggest concern is investors turning "temporary losses into permanent losses."

She said she's seeing "a lot of analysis" about ARKK performance but that people are "cherry-picking dates," and she pointed to robust returns over lengthy intervals.

Cathie said investors today are "running for the hills" in a "risk-off" environment, but that if she's right, "they're running to the past." In that case, those "hills," the benchmark indexes, "are where the risk is."

Cathie said that with a 5-year time frame, she's running a "deep-value portfolio," not a term people often associate with ARKK.

Judge questioned if some of Cathie's picks that have plunged will ever see their old highs. Cathie insisted "absolutely" and even "beyond."

Judge said "there's no doubt" that Cathie's companies have transformational value, but then, in a short-sighted question, said "it all really though comes down to the price we're willing to pay."

Judge also asked about the ETF that's betting against Cathie. Cathie said that ETF is "shorting innovation," and, "They're also not doing any research. They're simply shorting innovation."

Bryn Talkington asked Cathie why MRNA hasn't been in the portfolio. Cathie said she's taking a "close look" now and that when she looked at it in 2020, its valuation simply got too far ahead.

Josh Brown asked a couple good, if lengthy, questions about inflation and whether some of her top picks are really all that innovative. In a lengthy response that was eventually cut off by Judge, Cathie said that she sees "major deflationary forces" in the tech space, "and I think the bond market is on to this."

Late in the show, Cathie suggested the pounding on her type of stocks has been a "hysterical reaction" to higher interest rates.

Judge asked a great question about why Cathie sold TWTR after recently endorsing it. Cathie said it wasn't one of her highest-conviction holdings.

Overall, a quality interview with a very highly watched investor. This page said a year ago that Cathie should perhaps think about retiring at the top in early 2021. Give her credit — she's still going at it, even though the stars may never align again for her brand of investing like they did in 2020.

‘Pretty right when you get past the indexes’

Viewers of Tuesday's (2/15) Halftime Report were treated to a dandy of a donnybrook over oft-beleaguered BA.

Steve Weiss in the opening moments of the program was trying to say that the stock market's the same as it was 3 days ago, only to be cut off by the day's Boeing news.

After Phil LeBeau's report, BA long Jim Lebenthal contended the FAA has been "holding up the U.S. economy here" and has kept the company in the penalty box, but the 787 move "smells like endgame to me."

Sarat Sethi agreed, asserting that the FAA's move is "a lot more political" than something of "real substance."

Guest host Mel got back to Weiss, who said he shorted a "very little" amount of BA during the report because management has been "completely incompetent," and as for Dave Calhoun, "the job's too tough for him."

Weiss added, "Clearly this isn't political" and the "FAA is worried."

Jim cut in, "If they were worried about safety, they would've grounded the 787. They haven't. This isn't about safety. Just stop. It isn't about safety."

Weiss insisted, "Jim, you're wrong. They've grounded every plane until they inspect it."

"You don't know what you're talking about. The 787 is fine," Jim said. "You're factually wrong."

"It's not about safety," Jim emphasized.

That prompted Mel to cut in and ask Jim, "If it's not about safety, then what is it about?"

"The FAA is still wiping egg off of their face from 3-4 years ago with the 737 Max certification," Jim said. "Actually what this does is it allows the planes to start to be delivered again."

Mel then told Weiss that the FAA announcement brings "clarity" to the plane's delivery process. "But it slows down the delivery," Weiss asserted.

Moving on, the Morgan Stanley guy gave his most recent fortnight stock-market forecast; Steve Weiss said the Morgan Stanley guy gets a lot of "guff" for his market view though it's been "pretty right when you get past the indexes."

Jon Najarian praised investors who take profits when they think they should, without getting hung up on taxes.

Mel asked Sarat Sethi about Greenlight betting against Tesla. "It definitely is a risky trade," said Sarat, calling it a "very dangerous short."

Leslie Picker reported that David Tepper beefed up his M and KSS stakes. "He sees omnichannel," Weiss explained.

Jim Lebenthal said DKS is "intriguing."

Weiss didn't say anything this time about an invasion of Taiwan (see below).

Anybody else schedule a war for after the Olympics? (a/k/a What happened to Judge’s ‘changing of the guard’ from Brady to Burrow?)

On Monday's (2/14) Halftime Report, Mel guest-hosted for Super Bowl Judge but didn't find nearly as many fireworks as the ones associated with the last 2 drives of the big game.

Repeating one of his themes from the last few months, Steve Weiss claimed that Xi and Putin talked, and "Xi said, 'Hey, we wish you all the best in Ukraine, and why don't you keep that going, because right after the Olympics are over, we're goin' after Taiwan."

Yeah. Sure.

We've never heard before on CNBC that China's going to "go after" Taiwan.

Joe Terranova opined a couple times that investors have become "somewhat complacent" about the regularity of V-shaped recoveries.

Jenny Harrington complained about ZOOM and SNOW again (they're not CSCO). (This writer is long ZM.)

Cross-promoting the Super Bowl (because otherwise, people might not know it’s on TV)

On this Super Bowl weekend, the star guest of an L.A.-centric (sorta) Halftime Report on Friday (2/11) was legendary broadcaster Al Michaels.

"I've never seen the NFL hotter than it is right now. It's the national conversation," Al said.

Michaels said of Cincinnati, "They're the hot team right now. There's no question about it."

Prompted by Judge, Al reminded viewers he bought the FAS 10 years ago "as a day-trading stock," and "it's gone wild," and "I can't get rid of it ... 10 years later, I still have it ... a grand-slam home run."

But "who knows" what happens with stocks in general, Michaels said.

Gundlach: 33% chance of 50

On Friday's (2/11) pre-Super Bowl (it's NBC's year to broadcast) Halftime Report, Jeffrey Gundlach, who hasn't been on the show for a while, said he doesn't think the technicals are yet at the stage of prompting a 50-basis-point hike by the Federal Reserve.

Rather, Gundlach suggested a "1/3 chance" of a hike of 50. He said there's "almost a perfect relationship" between the 2-year and what the Fed does.

Gundlach said he's not an investor in crypto, it's not in his "DNA" and is "too volatile." He said owning it is "kind of like owning the Nasdaq on 5 times leverage."

Gundlach quoted "The Sun Also Rises" when making a point about credit spreads.

He said he thought the Rams would win the Super Bowl when they acquired Von Miller, and he predicts a margin of "at least 2 scores."

Shouldn’t Judge wait for the Bengals to actually win before declaring a changing of the guard?

Jim Lebenthal on Friday's (2/11) Halftime Report told Judge the "base case" has gone to 50 basis points. But Jim contended there's "a lot that can change" before March 15.

"They're gonna be data-dependent," Jim asserted.

Kourtney Gibson said if the Fed doesn't want to do 50 basis points, "they don't have to."

Pete Najarian predicted "more" than 4 rate hikes.

Sports-business expert Marc Ganis said he thinks the price of the Denver Broncos "is gonna start with a 4."

Ganis said Dave Tepper "paid almost 2.3" for the Carolina Panthers.

Speaking with Al Michaels, Judge claimed Super Bowl 56 "in some ways" marks a "changing of the guard, if you will," from Tom Brady to Joe Burrow.

Weiss suggests Judge thinks of Tom Lee as ‘a god’ (a/k/a all those stocks that are ‘under’ the market)

Before anyone starts thinking about Tom Lee as a "god," remember that Bitcoin-$100,000 call.

That was Steve Weiss' message to Judge on a Halftime Report Wednesday (2/9) that fizzled mightily after about 10 minutes.

Things started off with a curious "audible" — that would be Joe Terranova's sudden turnaround on his call of just 2 days earlier that the stock market will retest its January lows.

Joe offered a curious analogy of paying too much attention to the front 7 while "the opportunity was in the secondary." Joe said what caused him to "audible" was market "breadth."

"I apologize to the viewers for Monday coming out and saying I was worried about megacap equities," Joe said.

"I don't think you need to, uh, apologize to anybody," Judge told Joe. And that's true. But it's a fine reminder that anything heard on the show might be ... well, discarded in a fairly short time.

Judge bluntly asked Kari Firestone if we'll retest the lows. Kari cautiously said, "I think it's possible that the index, the S&P might rete- retest the low," before curiously adding that those stocks down 30-60% are "in the low now," or "they've established their low."

We think that means that the ones already hammered, specifically one of her favorites, PYPL, aren't going down much more. (This writer is long PYPL.)

Steve Weiss gave his occasional speech in which he said stocks go up "90% of the time" (Translation: Tom Lee doesn't have to call "audibles") but oh by the way, Weiss doesn't buy markets, he buys stocks, and stocks that are supposedly "under the market" (snicker) (whatever) have been "in a bear market."

Judge brought up Tom Lee's most recent outlook. Weiss knocked Lee's Bitcoin-$100,000 call of last year, which left Judge nearly incredulous.

"None of you have gotten every single call right that you've made," Judge explained to Weiss.

"The guy's not a god, Scott," Weiss said. "You may not agree with me, but he's not a god."

"Whoever said he was," Judge said.

"Well, the way you talk about him, it's with great adulation, and I don't blame you," Weiss said.

"Great adulation?" Judge said.

Judge blamed Weiss for not allowing "a little bit of levity" in the program.

On Tuesday's (2/8) Halftime, Jason Snipe said he unloaded FB after owning it since January 2018. Snipe cited the "big miss" on the MAUs and also a miss on DAUs, guidance that "wasn't great" and "increased competition." And we can't help but wonder, if Snipe had made a great call to sell FB before the earnings report, would he now be thinking it's still a sell, or would he wonder if it's worth buying back? #Yaneverknow

Searching for the right word

Judge and the Halftime Report guest hosts have mostly ignored Ukraine as subject matter, which tells you all you need to know about the perception of how much financial markets care about the current state of affairs.

One guy who can't ignore it is President Joe Biden, who has been compelled to opine on this slowly developing situation almost daily, offering generally the same message — that there are evidently millions of ways to define "invasion."

"Invasion" is a powerful word. The West said that Germany invaded Poland and France; it didn't say that Germany invaded Czechoslovakia.

Russia's move into the Crimea in 2014 was called an "annexation" by the New York Times. The Associated Press, as recently as last November, was reporting, "Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014."

The Wikipedia page is titled "Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation."

Wikipedia also refers to the Soviet "intervention" of Hungary in 1956. (See how the creativity is endless?)

Biden revealed his own, and presumably the U.S. and Western governments', indecision on this matter in his free-wheeling Jan. 19 press conference (and note the words in bold ital) when he stated, "And so, I think what you're going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades. And it depends on what it does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do, et cetera."

On Monday, at a press conference with Germany's chancellor, it was, "If Russia invades, that means tanks and troops crossing the border of Ukraine again."

Perhaps "invasion" is determined by the amount of people shooting back.

It seems as though Mr. Biden is reserving the right to label this apparent military initiative whatever term is most in accordance with the preferred U.S. response.

We can only wonder what that is.

Joe: Megacap tech pullback possible

In one of the best shows in weeks, Monday's (2/7) Halftime Report panel took a crack at the state of the markets, and none stood as tall as Bryn Talkington, who pointed out something this page has flagged numerous times for months.

Bryn said she doesn't know how interest-rate hikes "cure supply chains."

Exactly. (See, the idea is, overall, people and companies get slightly less money and won't want to buy as many things, so perhaps fewer people will want the Chevy Silverados that Mary Barra doesn't have available to sell anyway, even though most people aren't relying on the Fed's discount window to obtain their daily cash allotment.)

Steve Weiss said he agrees with that and that Talkington's point "really resonated."

Bryn suggested it "may be healthy" to make a double-bottom.

She also added one for the quotebook, stating, "there's a saying in our business, you know, that concentration creates wealth and diversification preserves it."

Joe Terranova affirmed he expects a retest of January lows. But then perhaps adding a lot of extra words to a very simple point, Joe claimed, "Markets right now are trying to figure out what really matters most in terms of retail and institutional ownership."

Joe suggested investors may "pare back" on some megacap tech.

Judge was heard to say "rolling correction (snicker)" in the opening minutes.

Weiss took great pains to call the Morgan Stanley guy "right" and insisted, as he has in recent appearances, that the stock market has done "nothing since last July."

"I remain bearish," Weiss asserted.

Jon Najarian said it'll be sell the rip "for some period of time" and seemed to question sending 3,000 troops to Europe "to deal with" the 130,000 Russians on the Ukraine border.

Najarian said of the sanctions directed at Vladimir Putin, "I don't think that'll stop him," and that it's in Russia's best interests to push oil over $100. Doc predicted the Fed will make several quarter-point hikes but will be "really hard-pressed" to get to 4 rate hikes.

On the subject of Meta, the "talker" stock of the week, Doc declared, "Google is just as dirty as Facebook, maybe dirtier, because they can define what's trending um as far as that massive library of those YouTube videos and so forth (yep) Scott."

On Friday, all Weiss said was that his NFLX buy was a ‘pretty small trading position’

Here's a conversation that went on for far too long.

Judge on Monday's (2/7) Halftime Report said that "once again," he has something to settle with Steve Weiss, something that left Judge "confused."

Judge said that last Thursday, Weiss bought NFLX and called it a "long-term trade." (Actually, no one called it a "long-term trade" on Friday, at least not what we heard upon reviewing the exchange.)

"I think one of us has a problem following the other. That's not me," Weiss interrupted Judge on Monday.

"I just wanna make sure we're on the same page thus far," Judge said, before revealing that on Monday, he learned Weiss was "stopped out" of NFLX.

Weiss said that in "trading as opposed to core positions, you put levels in, at least I do, to control your risk."

"I had a trade on," Weiss added, insisting his NFLX purchase was a "trade" and not "investment," which is what he said Friday.

Judge wondered how a "long-term trade" could have such a "very tight stop." Weiss said he moves his stops in general, which is "what good traders do." And he wondered, "How much do you want me to put in there to protect my downside?"

"I don't want you do to anything," Judge said.

"Well apparently you do," Weiss said, pronouncing his trade "good risk management."

Not exactly taking sides, Jon Najarian offered, "We're all focused on managing risk."

Judge actually said this overly long conversation serves as a "Trade School."

Weiss: ‘Real areas’ of the country aren’t necessarily what you see on CNBC

If you're hoping FB sellers overreacted on Thursday (2/3), Steve Weiss has another idea.

"I think Facebook's overvalued here," Weiss said on Friday's (2/4) Halftime Report. "It's a hated company." (If it's so hated, why doesn't someone create a competitor that isn't hated?) (This writer is long FB.)

On the broader market, Weiss wasn't interested in entertaining Dan Niles' outlook (even though it sounds the same as Weiss', being in cash), rather, Weiss said "all you gotta know" is that stocks have risen on a "globally easy money policy, and now we're reversed."

Judge, back from a couple days, at first made a good dig at Weiss' claim of friendship with Niles, but then let it go on too long.

Weiss said that if you "get away" from people typically on CNBC, "including me," who tend to be "upper end of society in terms of, of what they earn and the world they live in," and delve into the "real areas of the country," you'll see people getting "crushed" by, apparently, energy prices.

(Yes, it's the Federal Reserve's job to make us 1) want to buy less oil and 2) want to buy fewer things that have computer chips in them, which will 3) evidently make the prices not go up so much. Surely, they'll succeed at that.)

As a result, Weiss said he sees "terrible risk/reward" in stocks.

Nevertheless, Tom Lee dialed in and insisted it looks like "risk on" for the market, because of the jobs report, oil, Bitcoin and because a lot of people have "essentially panicked" by raising cash.

Judge said Lee is forecasting a "13% gain over the next 6 months." Lee affirmed that.

If Facebook is so awful, why not just invent a competitor and put it out of business?

Thursday's (2/3) Halftime Report, guest-hosted by Dom Chu, spent a healthy amount of time on What's wrong with Facebook.

Incredibly, no one mentioned Cambridge Analytica. (This writer is long FB, sadly, but not very much.)

Josh Brown said Meta made a "classic strategy error" by changing the corporate name "to a thing that is not even in existence yet."

Perhaps, although we don't know that anyone stopped clicking on their Facebook news page because the company's now known as "Meta."

As for another FANG, Brown said he "can't imagine" how this last quarter could've been one of AMZN's best, given its amount of employees and the cost pressure that SBUX reported. Well ... (this review was posted early Friday a.m.).

On Wednesday's Halftime, Pete Najarian called the GOOGL 20-for-1 split a "big deal" and suggested that, more than the profits, was responsible for the reaction to the earnings report.

Pete said there may be fractional shares available but people "still shy away from that."

Pete also said PYPL's guidance was "absolutely terrible" and he's "shocked" at how poorly it's being run, even "beyond words." (This writer is long PYPL, sadly.)

Remember when in November, Pete was constantly saying that AMZN's ownership of RIVN was a "great backstop." Evidently not that great, given that it actually topped $170 that month but is only $60 now. (But it's only 1) Peloton 2) Teladoc 3) Docusign that are the "high P.E. or no P.E." that you should avoid.)

"Today we're seeing some May 100 calls being bought," Pete said Wednesday of RIVN.

Hall of Fame could waive 5-year rule, elect Brady next week

Tom Brady's retirement — depending on when you first started hearing about it — maybe wasn't much of a surprise.

But what happens next could be.

Hockey put Wayne Gretzky in the Hall of Fame the year he retired. With the NFL's annual Hall vote coming up on Super Bowl weekend, it makes total sense that the same could happen to Tom Brady.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday's (2/1) Halftime Report, guest host MLee asked Josh Brown about GOOGL, perhaps not realizing the last time this stock surfaced during a Brown-Stephanie Link show, Brown was insisting that Stephanie will be buying it over $3,000. This time, there was no exchange. Both said it's a great company. Stephanie said when she sold it, she made "tremendous money on it."

Brown said the tech stocks that have gone from 300 to 120 and rely on ZIRP aren't going back to 300 anytime soon.

Jon Najarian asserted that "the 2-year is doing the work for the Fed." Doc said he's "holding on to JETS" (this writer is long several airlines) and said there's interest in a lot of reopening trades recently.

Doc said FB management needs to show it can hold the company together; however, the way he talked, Najarian sounded like he'd be more interested if the company was broken up.

Mel led the panel in an interesting go-round on the future of electric F-150s and other vehicles and the potential of direct-from-automaker sales.

Josh Brown said INVH is his favorite dividend holding.

Doc said he and Pete will be covering the Super Bowl "for Peacock."

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