CNBCfix - Fast Money Review

[CNBCfix Fast Money/Halftime Report Review Archive — May 2023]

Jenny indicated it’s no fun talking about a bad stock on live TV, then couldn’t stop talking about it

Sometimes, Halftime Report panelists say the most revealing things.

Such was the case on Wednesday (5/31), when Judge, at the end of the A block, promised to discuss AAP after the break and "how badly Jenny was feeling today."

After that break, Judge called AAP the Chart of the Day, telling Jenny Harrington he's "guessing" it's the "worst day ever for this name."

"Well it's one of the worst days ever for me," Jenny chuckled. "So, I think, you know, the one thing that makes it so much better is being on live TV and getting to talk about it. Ha ha. Um, you know for those of you who followed me in, I'm really sorry."

Jenny, who's been owning AAP for months (more on that in a moment; notice the price in the Dec. 30 photo above), went on to say that AAP's revenue "grew" during the 2008 Financial Crisis, so even if there's a recession now, her thinking was that "these earnings should sustain at some level that easily covers that dividend."

So what happened? "I think we have a real management problem," Jenny added. "But I thought that that had been overly discounted and I think what I really screwed up on here was frankly not understanding how bad this management team is."

Jenny said earnings and margins were "horrible" because the company was "way way way too aggressive on pricing." As far as what to do now, "Well, I think the shares are oversold," Jenny told Judge; it's a "decent business" with a "terrible management team," and she wonders "why doesn't it just get taken private."

Jenny conceded "it's going to be a loss" for clients but she doesn't think a price of "$78 a share" (screen showed $73) is "rational."

However, "I need to sell it, because I run a dividend-income portfolio." Judge pointed out AAP cut the dividend by 83%.

"Sorry I should've led with that," Jenny said.

Jenny said some people think, "Oh my God, it cut its dividend." But Jenny explained, in what seems a curious analogy, if you've got a portfolio of 30-35 stocks, and you're counting on the dividends, "Think of it as if you're managing a business. If you're a business and you have 38- 35 employees, 1 is gonna quit on you every year. That is not insurmountable. You just hire a new one." So you "don't really freak out" in this instance, Jenny said.

Jenny said hers was an "average" and "reasonable-sized" position and it just "stings" but isn't "derailing." Jenny said she's got "something new teed up."

Judge said ... in quite frankly some of his goofiest melodrama in recent memory ... "I'm thinking that sometimes the worst days bring out the best in who I think our people are. And I really appreciate the honesty. Sometimes you just say, as Jenny said, 'I'm sorry,' for all of those who, who followed me. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. But, I know it's hard to come on live television and watch a stock that's down 35% because you know that people are ridiculing you here and saying this about you on Twitter there, and it doesn't matter. It's the honesty and being contrite about the picks that you've made. And we, we like lift you up when the picks are great, but sometimes they're not, and sometimes you gotta come face the music, so I appreciate that."

"My pleasure. I mean, we all know, there's like real people out there, you know, who listen to everything we say, and that- that's important," Jenny said.

OK. So we're not sure how many times Jenny might've touted AAP this year. But we found that on the 2022 year-end episode, Dec. 30 (photo above), Jenny announced AAP as a new buy from the day prior.

Jenny said that day "the stock is down 40% year to date" and in 2021 they "jacked the dividend up," which was 4.1% in late December, and the stock at that point traded at 11.6 times (forward) while AZO and ORLY, according to Jenny, traded at 20 and 26 times.

This was the money quote: "When a stock's trading at 11½ times earnings, you have a huge margin of safety."

Um ... really??

A layman would probably conclude that the reason AAP's P.E. ratio was so much lower than that of AZO and ORLY is because AAP was a much crappier company, which seems to be proven true.

Then there's this: Jenny's arguments on Dec. 30 in favor of the stock sounded like they were based on armchair web searches of Yahoo finance — what's the yield, what's the P.E. ratio, what's the competitors' P.E. ratios, what did these stocks do during the last recession. There was nothing like ... oh ... "I visited some of these stores and was impressed" or "These stores in big cities are in better locations than their competitors" ... "I listened to these guys' conference call, and management sounds better than the analysts think" ... or even ... "I've been watching the chart; it seems to finally be in an uptrend."

Then, there's Judge's reference to Twitter: If you don't like what you're seeing on Twitter, delete the damn pointless account.

Finally, we think it's curious that Judge is trying to soothe Jenny's feelings about people "ridiculing" this call ... when Jenny scoffs at every opportunity that buying high-P.E. tech stocks is a bad strategy and as recently as last week was mocking NVDA buyers as people who also buy ZM and COIN and ROKU.

How can Mondays be the day of throwing in the towel if markets are closed?

You know that famous scene in "The Godfather," in which Mike's gorgeous new wife Apollonia starts reciting the days of the week in not exactly the correct order? Wednesday's (5/31) Halftime kinda gave us the same feeling.

Joe Terranova asserted that we'll know after AVGO's report whether AI stocks have hit a "near-term top."

Then Joe continued, "I also think the fact that it occurred early, on a Monday (sic), psychologically if you think about it, Mondays- I always think of Mondays as the day in which, uh, investors throw in the towel. In particular, retail investors. Why. Because they sit home all weekend, and in particular on a long holiday weekend, they study the market, they look at the gains ... they say, first thing in the morning, 'OK, we're going in.'"

OK. We think that just before the "sic" above, Joe meant "Tuesday," not Monday, when AVGO temporarily shot to $921. The rest of his point was fine, except he should've made clear, something like, "This week we had the holiday, but Mondays, or the first day of the trading week, I always think of as ..."

Evidently asleep at the switch or listening instead to whatever was being piped in his ear, Judge didn't question what day Joe was talking about.

Judge says Josh may have ‘top-ticked’ NVDA

At least Halftime Report viewers didn't have to listen to another day of Josh Brown talking about NVDA on Wednesday (5/31). But Joe Terranova took up the mantle in regard to AVGO, stating AI stocks are indicating that a "potential for a near-term top is in place."

Joe said the JOET has owned AVGO since October 2021. Joe said this is an "incredibly important report" (snicker) upcoming for AVGO because this is an "underestimated (snicker) AI play."

Joe even called AVGO a "better AI play" than NVDA or AMD. (What happened to the great virtual reality play that NVDA was supposed to be in 2016?)

Joe said he's looking to get "out of AMD" and into AVGO.

Then again, "It's time for a breather" in these names, said Jason Snipe.

"I am fully on board with artificial intelligence," said Anastasia Amoroso, "but it does need a breather."

Judge then asked Jenny Harrington about the AI stocks (as if she's a real aficionado), saying many people entered the year "severely underweight" these stocks. Jenny said "It's so bifurcated" and called this a "weird, mixed-up, dislocated year."

Jenny said some holders may sell NVDA because of "forced rebalancing."

Judge suggested "we may look back" later on and find Josh Brown "top-ticked this thing" when unloading 25% of his NVDA stake based on RSI.

omg — Isn’t the whole world shopping for AI at Nvidia?

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (5/31) Halftime Report said CPRI has "literally" been "cut in half since February," and he said that while AI may be the market's umbrella, weakness in luxury and the Versace brand suggests it's "raining out."

Judge and Joe haggled over how relevant footwear is to LULU shares. Panelists noted the slides in EL, ULTA and LVMH. But Jenny Harrington claimed it's "complicated" because not everything's moving in "tandem." Jenny said "I look at this, and I start to salivate," because "there is going to be opportunity."

Mike Santoli said there's a "sort of slowdown feel" in the market.

Anastasia Amoroso somehow gave a viewer a B for losing money in TAN over the last 5 months. (At least the viewer didn't buy AAP.) Jason Snipe still likes UNH though it's been "a little bit frustrating." Jenny said the dividend in ET "is actually gonna grow."

Brian Belski, who tends to speak about stocks with as much excitement as Al Michaels expressed in the Jacksonville-Los Angeles playoff thriller, recited stats about how well stocks do in future months (answer: decently) after this kind of narrow concentration; he said even though there's no breadth to the market rally, there's a "psychological positive" from a handful of stocks making headlines for soaring.

Belski said 4,300 is his "base case" but his bull case is 4,800.

Josh’s call to replace NFLX with NVDA in ‘FANG’ was on July 29, 2016 — runner-up for 2016 Call of the Year to ... guess who ...

On Tuesday's (5/30) Halftime Report, Judge at the top of the show asked Josh Brown to "refresh, you know, our memories if you could" on how long he has owned NVDA.

Um, Judge, this page — basically alone in business media (take that, Henry Blodget and big-bucks Business Insider) — will handle the refreshing of memories.

Brown said Tuesday he was buying NVDA in the "summer of 2015" (sic) and suggested on the show back then that "Maybe we oughta replace the N with, uh, Nvidia."

"It's thousands of percentage points obviously," Brown said.

Brown was only a year off. What he didn't mention Tuesday was that his argument for replacing NFLX with NVDA was because of "virtual reality" (snicker). His NVDA recommendation way back then came with the stock around $14; by late December, it was about a double.

That put him in the end-of-2016 conversation for Call of the Year. And in May of that year, Steve Weiss had somehow hung a $60 target on SRPT with the stock in the low 20s. Within about 4 months, that target was achieved.

So Weiss won Call of the Year.

In the roughly 7 years since those calls, NVDA has surged from about $14 to $400, or about a 28-fold return.

SRPT is up about 5-fold since then. Not in Nvidia's league. But not too shabby.

Jon Najarian (um, he got booted off the show) was awarded 3rd place for correctly predicting Brexit.

Back in 2016, Judge was still doing what CNBC called the "Halftime Portfolio" contest. (You know, that yearlong competition in which panelists made stock picks but were bound by all sorts of trading limitations that the typical investor doesn't have, and when some of 'em such as Simon Baker did badly, CNBC simply eliminated their portfolios to avoid embarrassment.)

Jim Lebenthal crushed the 2016 Halftime Portfolio contest, winning with 32.1%. Sarat Sethi got 2nd.

Judge wonders if saying ‘AI’ a million times on earnings call is ‘what we’ve come to’ (as if companies would somehow be too embarrassed to do it)

Judge on Tuesday's (5/30) Halftime Report mentioned CRM at a 52-week high.

Kari Firestone said she expects numbers to "look good" in the next few quarters "as long as they sound positive ... and say 'AI' several times on the call."

Judge scoffed about saying AI a "million" (sic not what Kari said) times. "We've come to that; that's really what we've come to?" Judge wondered.

Kari said she's "kidding" about that.

Josh Brown said Kari is "probably only half-kidding." He said CRWD is having a good year after last year's struggle.

Dan Nathan: AI in ‘death rattle,’ ‘blowoff top,’ but Karen sees ‘a lot more runway’

Early on Tuesday's (5/30) 5 p.m. Fast Money, Dan Nathan issued a stark warning for those interested in scooping up NVDA or others.

Nathan said if you're buying the AI trade on Tuesday, "you got here for the death rattle."

Melissa Lee asked if Dan wouldn't have said the same thing "2 sessions ago." Dan said no, that Tuesday is a "blowoff top" and that AVGO just had an "epic, epic blowoff top."

Dan explained that the "important part" of the AI rally was that Nvidia guided a $7 billion revenue quarter to $11 billion, "so a $4 billion beat, OK, and raise, essentially, if you think about this, caused a half a trillion-dollar rally in a handful of stocks that are all the only ways that you can play this."

Karen Finerman though said she disagrees. Karen said the $4 billion beat sparking a half-trillion rally "sounds really great" but is "I don't think the right way to look at it." Karen said it's one beat "on their way" to a $1 trillion infrastructure that needs to change, and there's "a lot more runway" in the NVDA story and isn't a bubble "yet."

However, Karen allowed that it's "reminiscent of, you know, a 3-D printing bubble."

Now we’re back to the China ‘goin’ after’ Taiwan non-market-moving theory

Once again on center stage with NVDA, Josh Brown on Tuesday's (5/30) Halftime Report said he trimmed 25% of his long-term position.

"Man, this is one for the ages," Brown said.

"You could live your whole life and never see a stock do what Nvidia has just done, uh, ever again," he added.

But Brown said NVDA has an 86 RSI and had an 89 in November 2021, and its "highest ever" was 91 in 2011. He said it's just at a "historic level of being overbought."

Somewhat coincidentally, Steve Weiss was buying NVDA on Thursday's close.

Weiss on Tuesday told Judge, "Clearly I don't think there's ever been a more momentum-driven market than what we're in right now."

"Frankly if Josh were a better salesperson, I would've gotten into it earlier," Weiss added.

"There is no competitor there," Weiss continued, though he called MSFT the "best AI play."

Weiss admitted of NVDA, "The first hint of reversal, I'm gone." He added, "Since time began, chip companies have not been able to keep their competitive edge for a long period of time."

"Josh is making an excellent risk-management move," opined Joe Terranova. But Joe said "without question," the multiple on NVDA is "exceeding a comfort level."

Judge reported on Cathie Wood's rationalization for not being long NVDA, showing that Cathie was tweeting about how she knew about NVDA years ago but sold in January and now thinks it's 25 times revenue for the year.

Joe Terranova seemed to think Cathie was hemming and hawing. "Let's just say we missed it," Joe said, though he is "looking for the exit" in AMD.

Kari Firestone said it's "correct" for Brown to take some profit as NVDA's in an "extreme case of enthusiasm."

Josh said he sold SDGR because he bought it just before earnings; we hadn't heard that one on the show previously.

Josh said he wrote a blog post about "5 things that could knock Nvida down," and "first on the list is uh any credible evidence (snicker) that China is about to do something, uh, with respect to Taiwan."

Brown also cautioned that NVDA's report could signify a "massive pull forward" in orders for Q2.

Kari: ‘More likely’ we won’t have a recession

On Tuesday's (5/30) Halftime Report, Kari Firestone made a rather significant call on the U.S. economy that Judge and other panelists didn't even seem to notice (other than Steve Weiss).

"It appears more likely that we will not have recession," Kari said.

Weiss addressed that 23 minutes into the show, stating, "I am still negative on the market," and adding he doesn't agree with Kari's likelihood of a recession.

Joe Terranova said tech is up 10% month to date, while energy is down 8% and materials, industrials, utilities are down 6%.

Josh Brown said he sold NEM and said he's "a little bit mad" for getting into it and wished that others on the show had "talked me out of this." He said it was a "failed thesis" as gold got weaker. He also said gold miners are "not good companies." Joe pointed out the divergence between GLD and NEM but said he doesn't want to buy gold right now.

Josh: Carl’s in a fight ‘for his professional life’

Josh Brown on Tuesday's (5/30) Halftime Report said he sold SWX, another one we can't even recall hearing on the show.

Brown said Carl Icahn is "kind of in a fight for his professional life right now."

Judge said CHPT got an upgrade; Josh said without a ton of enthusiasm that he's been in it and that he liked the thesis 2 years ago, but it "just hasn't played out that way."

Judge said Mizuho reiterated PYPL with a 92 target. Kari Firestone said "the call is confusing" and wondered about buying on weakness, "how much weaker can it possibly be."

Joe Terranova bluntly declared "There is no momentum right now in J&J." He said investors want to be in devices and LLY.

Mike Santoli suggested that maybe stocks that get to $900 billion are destined to test $1 trillion, that seems to be the case with those that have cleared $800 billion.

Joe conceded he sold PANW "way too soon." Joe correctly explained, "I was in Palo Alto many years ago, uh, I think very few people on CNBC had mentioned it like I did." (We couldn't agree more, as this page used to regularly point out Joe's interest in that name.)

Steve Weiss said BAC is "absolutely" cheap but there are "absolutely not" any catalysts at this time.

Jenny indicates that people who buy NVDA also want to buy ZM and ROKU

Judge opened Friday's (5/26) Halftime Report declaring the move in chips was "far beyond Nvidia."

Jenny Harrington — who at least didn't have Josh Brown heckling over her shoulder during this episode — admitted this kind of market for her is "frustrating" and it feels like we're back in the "bad old days."

"I get scared by crowded trades," Jenny explained, pointing to her tweet in February 2021 in which she said "whoa" about ARKK. (Translation: Great tech trades fizzle out in a hurry.)

Jenny told Judge, "If I did own Nvidia ... I'd be a different kind of manager." And that's when Jenny made a fairly startling assertion, stating that if you're "comfortable" owning NVDA, then you're also "comfortable" owning TSLA, ZM, COIN, TDOC, ROKU.

Judge suggested that's "too generalizing."

Jim Lebenthal said that with this kind of divergence, either the leaders will pull back or the laggards will rise, and, "I do think the laggards are gonna come up."

Jim also said there's a "pretty good indication" we're back in the "no-landing camp."

Judge said those in the laggards need to rely on "fresh money" for gains because there's unlikely to be a rotation out of the NVDAs into laggards.

Jenny predicted "significant competition" for NVDA over the longer term and rattled off a bunch of tech giants as squeezing NVDA, even though people said the same thing in regard to NFLX a decade ago.

Stephanie Link dialed in and called DIS "dead money."

Jim tried to claim that Byron Trott's interest in National Amusements may be something good for PARA.

Looks like a 2-horse race for Call of the Year, and it’s not Weiss this time (which we’re glad about, though we’re not rooting against Weiss)

Pretty much every time Josh Brown talks about NVDA or AI, he starts off with what he was saying about it over the winter.

A fair and valid point, except viewers would be better served had he just called NVDA a table-pounding buy before earnings Wednesday and not just repeatedly stated there's a bubble forming in the sector.

Even so, Brown's advocacy of AI and its flagship stock, NVDA, paid off in spades Thursday (or overnight Wednesday) when a robust earnings report/outlook sent the already-soaring stock into one of those AMZN-1999-like days.

Brown on Thursday's (5/25) Halftime Report said his predictions from early in the year about a "full-blown AI bubble" in which NVDA would be the "grand marshal" looks like it's "coming to fruition."

Brown said he's been in the stock "about 8 years," and "it's all coming together" and "it's not an overnight thing."

But Josh conceded that for some people, having a megacap move 30% overnight is "bonkers."

Bryn Talkington, who was practically shut out in this program, said she said a day earlier that NVDA was "underowned" and so the move overnight into Thursday confirmed that.

Bryn thinks we're in the "1st or 2nd inning" (snicker) of AI.

Jason Snipe, who tends to talk about stocks with the same kind of enthusiasm that Al Michaels displayed in the AFC playoff thriller in Jacksonville, said "there's always prudence" when a stock has moved as much as NVDA previously had. Snipe said "this is a name to hold. You don't trade too much."

Judge asked value investor Jim Lebenthal (yes, he was on the show again) "what do you do" if not in NVDA and mentioned people being "offsides," a curious term in regard to not owning a stock.

Jim graciously congratulated his occasionally combative colleague: "Josh, I don't even have words to congratulate you, this has been your name for years, you've blown it out of the water, this is amazing beyond words."

And Jim sounded ready to actually buy NVDA. "This reminds me of 12 years ago with Apple," Jim told Judge, saying it was "painful" at the time to buy AAPL, but it was a "decade story." Jim said you "gotta own" NVDA, though he's not going to buy it Thursday, but he won't hold out long.

Judge pointed out that a lot of people haven't been able to embrace the NVDA valuation, which keeps them out, and then you have a move like this, so maybe we "kinda need to rethink" that approach.

Brown's stiffest competition (at this point) for Call of the Year coincidentally appeared on Thursday's show. Brad Gerstner, who months ago trumpeted META's comeback when it only shot up $35 to $185, said he's been talking about AI for 6 months, "probably bigger than the internet itself."

Brad said the "compute" layer of AI (the other layer is data) is dominated by NVDA. Brad said NVDA is "materially cheaper" after earnings than a day earlier, although the CNBC graphic didn't necessarily indicate that.

Brad said the world is probably "underestimating" the advantage that NVDA has; he sees "unlimited demand for Nvidia certainly for the next couple years."

He pointed out that sell side analysts on Jan. 1 expected 0-10% data center growth this year and "negative" in Q1, while it's actually going to be "closer to 90 or 100% growth," so plenty of people missed it. Brad said the stock price in Demcember and January "made no sense."

Gerstner said "behavioral lock-in" (snicker) is when people make investment decisions based on previous successes and failures. In fact, every day you have to take a "first principles approach" and "bottoms-up view" with "new knowledge" about what to do today, Gerstner said.

Brad added that where NVDA stock started the year is "irrelevant."

Ankur Crawford, guest on Judge's Closing Bell Thursday, said, "When I saw the revenue guidance, I almost fell off my chair."

Joe Terranova, in a curious usage of words, said anyone who's long NVDA shouldn't "touch" the stock. (Meaning don't sell.)

The augmented reality crowd should hire the publicists of AI

On Thursday's (5/25) Halftime Report, which featured one of the longest A blocks in recent memory, Brad Gerstner insisted NVDA's big day was no fluke.

"This is not a fad. AI is not a fad," Brad assured.

Judge asked Brad about GOOGL. Brad said Google "owned the verb for search and discovery." Now it's become "ChatGPT."

Brad said the multiples in Big Tech are "frankly lower" than in consumer, cyclical names in the Dow and S&P 500.

Stacy Rasgon, who often turns up on CNBC but rarely on the Halftime Report, now has a 475 NVDA target and agreed with Gerstner that NVDA is "cheaper than it was yesterday."

Meanwhile, SNOW was doing a crash on Thursday. Brad said he "took down our software exposure" at the beginning of the year when he "rotated dollars" into NVDA and META. Brad gave such a technical explanation of the SNOW outlook that we couldn't keep up; sounds like he still thinks it's in a good space.

Meanwhile, Judge told Jim Lebenthal that DIS has "just been a dog." Jim said Bob Iger's strategic initiatives are "likely to be resolved" over the next couple quarters while cost-cutting kicks in. "Theme parks going gangbusters. Studios doing well," Jim asserted.

Jason Snipe said he got out of DIS a while back and into NFLX; he likes the business better than DIS.

Josh Brown said homebuilders have defied higher mortgage rates because "we just don't have enough homes in this country." Brown touted AOS and INVH, which is a REIT of "rental single family homes."

Mike Santoli said equal-weighted S&P is negative year to date and down for the quarter.

Bryn Talkington, who was practically shut out, fielded a question on DVN in Grade My Trade; someone named Tom bought at 62 and sold upside calls. "Continue to do what you're doing," Bryn said, asserting that energy will remain "weak" in the short term but will get "stronger" in the latter half of the year.

Sarat trimmed NVDA, um, a little too soon (a/k/a how come nobody on the show was pounding the table to buy the stock?)

Sarat Sethi on Wednesday's (5/24) Halftime Report said he's not regretting trimming NVDA in February even though Judge said it's up 30% since.

"I'm sorry but I'm not," said Sarat, "because you've gotta take profits when stocks like this do really really well." He said he'll buy more if it pulls back. (News flash: It didn't.) (This review was posted overnight Wednesday-Thursday.)

As the AI-sports analogies start to pile up, Judge said Jim Breyer said at the CEO Summit claimed that AI is in the "2nd hole" of a golf outing, like the Internet "circa '95."

Judge said Steve Weiss plays golf, though "not well." Weiss told Judge, "Thanks for caddying for me." Weiss said NVDA's P.E. is at an all-time high.

At the end of the show, Weiss said "Costco to me is more important (snicker) to the market than Nvidia."

Joe Terranova said there is "energy and excitement" about NVDA, but the guidance matters more than the earnings.

Joe implies questions about picking CRWD over PANW are unfair because not everyone ‘gets a hundred on the test’

Kari Firestone on Wednesday's (5/24) Halftime Report said 10 tech names account for 80% of the year to date S&P return.

Joe Terranova sold half of his AMD position; Judge wondered what could be wrong with the stock given how it's performed in the last 6 months. "It's really about risk management," Joe said, citing the possibility of a "2nd derivative" (snicker) from the NVDA report.

Joe said there's a "high probability" of Q3 being a negative quarter.

Sarat Sethi trimmed META, for the same reason he trimmed NVDA; it became a "supersized" position. He "redeployed" cash into health care. Kari though hasn't sold META because it's 14 times next year's numbers" and there's "more room to go."

Weiss again referred to MSFT, as well as GOOGL, as a "perennial compounder."

Joe trimmed DDOG, which he was just trumpeting a few days ago.

Joe admitted, "I owned Palo Alto in the past (he sure did; used to mention it all the time); I do wish I owned it today" and said it was a "mistake" to be in CRWD instead.

Joe seemed in disbelief over questions about why he didn't get the best internet security stock, wondering if anyone actually thinks that in investing, "everyone gets a hundred on the test."

Weiss struggling to keep up the curmudgeon routine

On Wednesday's (5/24) Halftime Report Judge, offered that "it felt like" Steve Weiss has gotten more positive on the market in the last 10 days.

"I'm not positive on the market," Weiss insisted, but he's "willing" to add more positions because he's more into Treasurys now; he admits he's "a little bit confused" by the market and surprised by the "resilience."

Kari Firestone bought more UNH and called it a "controversial" (snicker) stock. Judge wondered "why hasn't it worked this year." Kari said it was a "very big outperformer" last year and there's "concern about payment" whether Medicaid or even Medicare as debt-ceiling talks promise to go into the weekend.

Kari bought more TMO too. Sarat Sethi called TMO a "serial compounder." Joe Terranova said TMO fundamentals were "clouded" by special pandemic effects. TMO is in the JOET.

Kari trimmed BKNG, WAB and SHW and a few others. Kari said ADSK is at a "good entry point." Joe said you need something positive in the earnings report to be a catalyst.

In Grade My Trade, Joe said to take profits in GOLD, "at a minimum, sell half." Kari said she hasn't sold CRM.

One viewer admitted buying PYPL at $99. Sarat Sethi said he wouldn't sell it. Weiss said buying UBER at $34 is a nice short-term gain and it should do well. Sarat touted UBER and made it his Final Trade too. (This writer is long UBER.) Kari Firestone's Final Trade was AMZN, a stock which curiously hasn't been talked about very much in a long time on this show.

Nobody questioned opening the show with TOST or asked, ‘Are we trying to get viewers to turn the TV off?’ (a/k/a Judge calls tech ‘obviously overbought’)

Josh Brown at the top of Tuesday's (5/23) Halftime Report said he doubled his position in TOST and asserted that technically, the stock looks "phenomenal."

"The growth here could go on for a decade or more," Brown explained.

Even so, Brown said, "I think we're probably about to have a blowoff top in tech if we haven't already."

Jim Lebenthal — yes, he was back, with Josh serving as the Post 9 buffer — said he's taking "comfort" from earnings season because "a lot of stocks actually did beat, raise guidance."

Judge claimed "teff" (sic, corrected to "tech") is "obviously overbought" based on "metrics."

Stephanie Link, in her opening statement, did "oh by the way" twice, then another "by the way" without the "oh."

'You wanna be very careful on chasing here," Stephanie said (as opposed to all those other times when you should chase willy-nilly without a care in the world), tossing in a "for shoure" later.

Josh said NVDA has become a market bellwether, and the "heavier" risk for NVDA is not a weak quarter but "incredible quarter" in which the market "yawns" because it's already had a great run.

Josh suggested the 2023 tech rally is more about playing catch-up than anything else, saying that since March 2020, through last December, the S&P was actually up 75% vs. the QQQ being up 60%, and "now they're all neck and neck off of that COVID low."

Judge asked Jim if he would "advocate" today for people to "add to" CLF (sigh) (Zzzzzzzzzzzzz) (As if Judge didn't have any other material to talk about).

"I will and I do," Jim said. Of course. He said his view is not from the "top down" but "bottom up." Jim threw in an "oh by the way."

Josh said the fundamental arguments Jim makes for CLF could've been made 6 months ago with the stock at 25. Judge added that the market must know the fundamental outlook for CLF, so "Why hasn't it mattered?" Jim said the market "disagrees" with his outlook and sees a "recession" at some point.

Jim said 40% of CLF revenues are auto-related.

Stephanie Link said she'll "continue to buy" CVX on dips. Jim said you have to own at least one of either XOM or CVX. But Judge said for most investors, it seems like XOM and CVX are "either/or," that most people who mention one of them on the show don't own both.

Judge's graphic indicated that Marissa Mayer is speaking at the CEO Council Summit.

Judge did Grade My Trade, in which panelists basically rate someone's cost basis; this feature isn't on every day nowadays and seems to have slipped in terms of priorities.

Whew — Jim didn’t dial in to explain that a stock is falling post-earnings just because of noise and it’s really great

Monday's (5/22) Halftime Report really, to be candid, wasn't much of anything.

But Steve Weiss did say he was "surprised" that they'd hold the debt meeting (at 5:30) "so close to the president's bedtime."

Weiss said rates have been going up "day after day" this month.

Weiss impressively explained how the MU-China battle goes way back.

Jason Snipe, who tends to talk about stocks with as much excitement as Al Michaels expressed in the 4th quarter of that playoff thriller in Jacksonville, said he finally unloaded PYPL.

Joe Terranova said JOET got out of NKE at 167 in October 2021 but "bought it back at 126," which was a "terrible buy when you look at where it is right now today (sic last word redundant)."

Weiss said at DKS, "you see major displays of Hoka, which are like the Doc Martens of sneakers, because they're so frickin' ugly, but people love 'em."

Liz Young said lumber always leads homebuilder stocks, but homebuilder stocks have taken off; "one of them's gonna be wrong."

Jim dials in, revisits awkward CSCO conversation with Judge from a day earlier

We woulda figured, given what went on Thursday (see below), that Jim Lebenthal wouldn't have to be back opining on stocks on Friday's (5/19) Halftime, but that's exactly what happened as Jim dialed in to talk DE, and Judge tried to make it sound like they were old chums.

"Hey Scott, it's good to be on with you," Jim said, a stark departure from Thursday's questioning of whether people interrupt Jim because they're "afraid" of what he has to say.

Referring to DE, Judge said he thinks Jim was probably "feeling pretty good 4 hours ago; maybe not so much now."

Jim said ... uh-oh ... he "can't explain" Friday's move but it's "completely irrelevant" to the long-term thesis with the stock which is "very much intact." (And so we're back to, any stock having a rough day/month/year to date is going to be great regardless.)

Jim even said Friday's report was a "blowout earnings number." Then Jim told Judge, "This is very reminiscent of you and I talking about Cisco yesterday. I don't know if you remember that (how could Judge forget), but, 28 hours ago, Cisco Systems after its earnings report was 8% lower than it is right now."

"I know," Judge said, "but I feel like that's almost like saying, 'Well in the long term, stocks always go up, so who cares about the near term and the fundamental issues that may be taking place in the economy as it relates to demand, and where pricing was able to go at one point, which meant- which meant your margins were, were able to be higher, and, that's sort of evaporated (sic run-on sentence). That- That's real."

"Yeah, no, I disagree Scott. The fundamentals at Deere are extraordinarily intact," Jim insisted. "What you're seeing today is short-term noise."

"Let's take today out of it," Judge said, finally getting to the same type of question he's been hectoring Jim about for weeks. "It's down 14% year to date. So why- if the story's so great, why is the stock so bad?"

"Because every stock except for the 7 FANG names are down this year. Down or flat. That's no reflection on Deere's fundamentals at all," Jim said, not the most convincing answer.

Jim again brought up CSCO from a day earlier as Judge wrapped the call.

Judge battles Bill over correct inning number for AI

On Friday's (5/19) Halftime Report, Bill Baruch stated, "I think this is the middle innings of the AI push."

Judge said, "Are you talking about stock performance?"

Bill said yes, and "where we can go from here."

"Middle innings? ... We just started getting our arms around this whole thing, uh, you know, 5, 6 months ago," Judge said.

Bill said "there's a lot of room to grow here" in the AI market but other stocks are starting to "break out," and he reiterated "middle innings."

"Early innings, is where I would argue with you. How can we be in the middle innings? We just started," Judge said, practically in disbelief.

"I think middle innings of price. Middle innings of price, of where these stocks can go from here," Bill said.

Bryn Talkington said she thinks MSFT is in the "early innings" of monetizing AI.

‘Perennial compounder’ seems to be Weiss’ new investing benchmark

It sounds like Friday's (5/19) Halftime Report buried the lede — apparently, by several weeks.

Minutes into the show, Bill Baruch revealed that he sent a note to clients to start this month: "Buy in May, this bull market is here to stay."

The early portion of Friday's show was basically Pick Your Favorite Tech Stock.

"I think all eyes really are not on the S&P but on the Nasdaq. You know, so, the further away you are from AI and AI derivatives, the worse your performance is," explained Bryn Talkington.

But Bryn said the Nasdaq is "extremely overbought."

Steve Weiss said he'd "selfishly" like to see debt-ceiling talks go "up to the wire," so that the market will "trade down" and he can scoop up some stocks.

Bill Baruch said Fed officials are playing "this Jekyll & Hyde sort of narrative."

Weiss said he "did nibble" on MSFT, he hates the multiple but it's a "perennial compounder." He used that term a 2nd time, marking the 3rd time in a week (see below).

Weiss said he's really hoping that NVDA "really" misses the quarter. Bill, though, said, "I think they could raise guidance." Bill questioned, what if the TAM (snicker) for AI is $1 trillion?

Bryn asserted that "Google is an advertising company" and that AI "actually would make me want to search less 'cause I can just go straight to the answer." But with MSFT, "it's crystal clear," it'll make it "so much more efficient." (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Judge said "people" (um, he basically means Brad Gerstner) have tried to "write off" GOOGL "rather quickly," taking "60 Minutes" comments and the MSFT announcement to make the "investable leap" that "Alphabet missed the boat." But Judge said GOOGL stock has "outpaced" MSFT year to date.

Weiss said MSFT deserves its multiple because of its subscription revenue; he thinks NVDA won't "keep their multiple going forward."

Bill Baruch expects an Aaron Rodgers-like figure to take reins at Morgan Stanley

Bryn Talkington, who famously last year sold upside TSLA calls that turned into a great transaction for the buyer, said on Friday's (5/19) Halftime Report she bought TSLA at 172 and sold the September 190 calls and "got $14."

So her total return is 20% if it gets called away. She sold PYPL for a "source of funds" for this trade.

Bryn affirmed she owns DVN and touted Mizuho's "top pick" call. She said the playbook has worked in "textbook" fashion about investors selling energy because they sense a recession ahead, but investors are "missing" that the "soft landing drumbeats get louder." Bryn said you can buy DVN now and sell the September 55 calls.

Judge and Leslie Picker discussed Morgan Stanley's possible succession. Bill Baruch said the company is "very prepared," and "it's like the Green Bay Packers handing the reins to Aaron Rodgers from Brett Favre." Steve Weiss said he was "one of the doubters early on" but that James Gorman has done an "amazing job" who did "phenomenally well."

Bill Baruch bought AVGO, a "very tactical play," citing free cash flow yield and "multiple under 20." Bill is long PXD.

‘Punching us in the face’ — Halftime Report panelists trade jeers of investing approaches, even call colleague by formal name, accuse Judge of making it into a fight

The first 24 minutes of Thursday's (5/18) Halftime Report were about the most ... hmmmmm ... let's call it "antagonistic" ... perhaps in the show's history.

There was the time when a 5 p.m. Fast Money panelist told a guest to "piss off." This wasn't quite that bad, but this didn't involve guests, but people basically considered colleagues for television purposes.

Judge promised in the intro that they'd tackle whether AI is a "bubble or bonanza." Boy, did they ever.

The best way, it seems, to describe this episode is probably to start from the begining ...

Minutes into Thursday’s Halftime, Josh mocks Jenny’s 2 new buys

Jenny Harrington opened Thursday's (5/18) Halftime Report by discussing her buy of "dramatically corrected" WHR, noting the 5.4% dividend and that the stock is the same price as in 2013. "It is a mixed-up, bifurcated market," Jenny explained.

Judge said demand for big-ticket items is a "serious question." Jenny said there's a "less-discretionary" element for WHR's products.

Jenny also bought SWK, saying it's a "dividend aristocrat" and that shares have "dramatically" overcorrected, and "work still needs to be done on homes."

Judge suggested you "can't" buy these stocks if we're going into an economic slowdown. Jenny said they seem to have corrected enough already and ... this is the part that should be controversial ... she thinks she won't get "another chance" like right now. (That's quite an endorsement for a couple of charts such as these.)

Jim Lebenthal, seated next to Jenny at Post 9, offered, "I love these picks." Jim mentioned HD's report and said "that was a terrible report" and that he couldn't say "enough bad things" about it, but the stock's up slightly since.

Judge said, "There's the view that a recession, shallow or not, is still not priced into the market." Jim said multiples look OK if the recession is "short and shallow" and over by Q1 of 2024.

Then Judge brought in Josh Brown, remotely, and actually — this is true — asked Brown to "grade our trades."

Brown bluntly stated, "I can't believe we just opened the show with Whirlpool, in 2024. Are we trying to get viewers to turn the TV off? ... It's the worst chart I've ever seen in my life. Uh, it's been falling- it's been in free fall actually since May of 2021. ... I think the stock's going 30 points lower. ... The good news is Stanley Black & Decker is actually worse than Whirlpool."

Josh went on to declare, "Here's what's actually happening in the stock market today: OpenAI just released 86 plug-ins for ChatGPT. They literally just opened up the first-ever generative AI app store."

In the category of anti-self-fulfilling prophecies, we gotta think no one was turning off the Halftime Report after Brown asked "Are we trying to get viewers to turn the TV off?"

Jenny says 1) she looks 17, 2) the SEC will come down on her if she talks about her own performance, 3) basically that because she’s been successful before, she’ll be successful again

Just as Josh Brown had verbally stomped on Jenny Harrington's 2 new buys at the top of Thursday's (5/18) Halftime Report, Judge too started questioning the "value" trade.

Judge suggested Jenny and Jim Lebenthal are trying hard to find things "beaten down enough" but are just "making it awfully difficult on yourself" while "all of the action is about AI, where things are going ... and here you guys are, you know, trying to do these bottoms-up, forget-what-the-economy's-doing picks."

That's an important assessment that neither Judge nor anyone else made more clearly in the show: Jim and Jenny are generally talking about buying economically sensitive stocks. AI stories generally would not be considered so economically sensitive.

Anyway, Jenny curiously stated, "I would argue that the proof is in the performance, right, and I know we're not allowed to talk about performance on the show, but-"

"What do you mean you're not allowed to talk about performance? Your own performance?" Judge said.

"No, I'm not allowed to talk about that. Like the SEC comes down on you or whatever," Jenny claimed.

So, Jenny is basically implying a great track record without having to disclose it. And because of that track record — according to Jenny — she's right about AI.

"The fact that we have excellent businesses, and that we have clients who hire us and that we continue to make significant money for them using this strategy that works," Jenny told Judge. "If we want to get into AI, you know I've been in this business a long time, even though I look like I'm 17, I've actually been in the business for 30 years, ha ha, I know. But I remember, all the dot-com collapses ... we have really selective survivor basis ... all the hot talk is in AI, but I don't think the hot investments are in AI."

‘It kind of is’ a fight between Jenny and Josh/Judge

Already making a stark case of very traditional value stocks vs. the AI field, Jenny Harrington certainly raised eyebrows on Thursday's (5/18) Halftime Report when she said GOOGL (this writer is long GOOGL), MSFT, AMZN and NVDA — names mentioned by Judge — are "trading at sky-high valuations."

"They are??" Judge wondered.

"Yeah," Jenny said.

"You're suggesting that a Microsoft, for example, or Alphabet is trading at a SKY-HIGH valuation? Sky-high valuations were the ones that you're talking about from 1999," Judge said.

Josh Brown cut in, "Stanley Black & Decker's forward P.E. ratio is 88."

"That's ridiculous. You're looking at 2023 earnings," Jenny said. "If you look at 2024, it's 16 times, and if you look at 2025, which is where you need to correct to, it's like 8- like 12 times."

Honestly, that didn't sound like the strongest argument.

"So look at 2025 for Alphabet," Brown said.

"Why are we making this a fight? They're just like they're 2 different investments," Jenny said.

"Scott is. I'm not," Josh said.

"It's not a fight," Judge said.

"Well it kind of is," Jenny said.

"I think it's an absolute legitimate conversation now ... if you're underinvested in AI-related stocks, if you're gonna miss out," Judge said. Indeed, an excellent question for a TV show such as this one.

‘Jenny, let me introduce you to Josh Brown again, I’ve met him before’ (a/k/a we’re not expecting to see this kind of picture again anytime soon)

Jumping in to the Judge-Jenny conversation about AI-vs.-value, Jim Lebenthal on Thursday's (5/18) Halftime Report curiously said this is a "simple equation" of "time perspective." Jim said he and Jenny buy a stock for long-term value, not to "flip it" short term. "This is what classic value investors do. The words I'm choosing are exactly what a Warren Buffett says." Jim says he and Jenny work to determine the "intrinsic" price of a business. (Gotta say, we've never really gotten that whole "intrinsic" definition thing.)

"What you think it is," Judge said, adding "nothing's absolute."

Jim went on to say, in this kind of AI-fueled environment, "It's uncomfortable for us, when Josh says what he does. By the way Jenny, let me introduce you to Josh Brown again, I've met him before."

Josh said, "I don't disagree with anything Jim said," and that when "market manias come along," those who pass often get the "last laugh."

Brown conceded there will be "a lot of fly-by-night companies" in the AI world. But Brown said there's a "huge divergence" between the QQQ and the "Diamonds" Dow ETF, "4th-highest outperformance ever" of the QQQ since 1999. Last year was the "opposite," Brown said.

Josh went on to say that "in any given year," growth or value could be better. "Why pick, why play on a team, it's not necessary." That's a fair point, although Jim or Jenny probably could've responded that most professional money managers probably feel compelled to identify with a typical label.

Then Brown, as he did way back on Aug. 16, 2022, decided to call Jim by his formal name (that's never a good sign) ...

"And James, uh, citing Buffett is laughable considering his biggest position is Apple! And he bought more in the first quarter, and it's 30 times earnings!!! It's the most expensive multiple on Apple in the last 12 years!!"

"He called you James because he wanted to make his point," Judge explained.

"Does that mean he's really mad at me?" Jim asked.

"But how do you address that though?" Judge asked Jim.

"The point that Josh I think you were making if I heard you correctly, I was a little stunned by the 'James,' but let's keep moving forward, is that Berkshire owns a lot of Apple. Fair point, OK."

"Buy more!! Buy more!!" Josh said.

"OK, hold on, let me respond, I heard what you said, OK, he also owns Coca-Cola-"

"Not a value stock!" Brown blurted.

"Just- just- Josh, calm down for a second-" Jim said.

"Just answer the question, all right. Just answer the question already," Judge said.

"Well I can't, he keeps interrupting me, all right!" Jim said, before adding that Buffett owns KO, IBM, BAC, Burlington Northern, Precision Castparts; "I didn't wanna get mad, which is, he keeps interrupting me, now you're mad."

"No but his point is- His point is that it's, it's his biggest position and he continues to buy more at what you guys suggest is a (sic) outrageous valuation. My word using 'outrageous' but ... Jenny said 'sky-high valuation.'"

Jenny said, "I said 'sky-high,' because when something trades at 30 times earnings and has mid-single-digit growth, it doesn't make sense."

Jim said, "It's absolutely picking the exception; I mean I'm not- first off, I own Berkshire, and I know Josh does-"

"Exception? You could say it's the rule," Judge cut in.

"It's not the exception, it's the biggest holding!! It's the biggest holding," Brown said.

"Why do you- I honestly feel when all of you interrupt me like you're afraid of what I'm gonna say. Just let me say it, OK," Jim said.

"Say it," Brown said.

"It's Berkshire Hathaway. It's the U.S. economy, which also includes Apple. I don't know how that's a counterexample or it makes me laughable, which was your word Josh. Berkshire Hathaway, you own it, I own it, it's the U.S. economy, I mean let's- that's not an example that proves the point that AI is exactly where everybody needs to be."

Brown was caught in the quad screen grinning or chuckling about the reaction to his commentary. This page is aware that Brown has trumpeted, off-camera, bringing more to the Halftime Report than other panelists do. (That assertion had nothing to do with the 2 other panelists on Thursday's show.) It's great to have a swagger. Trash-talking is fun, whether it's stocks or football. Fortunately/unfortunately, Brown's castmates don't seem to share the same interest in that kind of approach (with Judge, it depends on the person), which leads to the occasional oil-and-water type of day like Thursday.

Jenny accused of being ‘pedantic’ toward AI investors

Interrupting the clash between Josh Brown and "James" Lebenthal, Judge on Thursday's (5/18) Halftime Report said the question about AI is, "Do you continue to do what you do, and ignore the hype, or do you buy into it?"

Judge cited an assessment of AI pushing up profits 30% in a decade.

Jenny said, "Do the math on that, that's annualized to 3% growth, a little bit less, right ... it's a better story than it is an investment."

"That's debatable though," Judge said. "Why does the biggest money in the market continue to buy these stocks?"

"Really? Because I think that's behavioral and psychological," Jenny said.

Judge asked anyone for GOOGL's multiple. "So you'd rather buy something else than Alphabet at 19 times," Judge said to Jim and Jenny.

Jim said, "OK, I don't- I don't know, you know, we went through the morning call, I did tell people to tell Kevin, that I was adding to Alphabet today. And that's the one exception where on that valuation, and the cash-rich balance sheet and the cash-flow generation, I can get kinda comfortable with that."

"You're adding to Alphabet today," Judge said.

"Yeah. Yeah," Jim said.

Jim concluded gently, "It's not that either of us (him and Jenny) are naysaying AI. (Actually, Jenny was totally "naysaying" AI.) It's just that there are other places to invest besides AI."

"I disagree," Brown said, before launching into the first of several speeches near the end of this dialogue. "I think the tone is pedantic, about, 'Oh it's all behavioral, that's why these other people are investing in tech stocks.' It's not all behavioral. These companies are in a secular growth moment as potentially a massive human-race-changing technology wave is washing ashore, and the world is changing, and I think some people understand that they're paying elevated valuations and I think some people understand that they're taking a higher risk than they would be taking buying the S&P but they're doing it anyway because that has historically worked out very well for people who have done it correctly. It's hard! It's not easy to do! If it were as easy as to say 'Oh what's the P.E. ratio, it's higher than 15, forget it,' like if that were investing, we would have a very different show."

OK, that is a high-quality point right there. Viewers regularly hear panelists talk about P.E., yet we don't see any evidence that P.E. ratio is an indicator of where a stock is going.

It is possibly an indicator of which stocks that don't work out are more likely to go to zero rather than just spend 10 years going nowhere. (Even that, we're not sure of.)

"Josh I think you're making a great point," Jim said.

"You do?" Jenny was heard to say, in disbelief.

"Hold on- Hold on," Brown said, before continuing with the "R-squared" for GOOGL, then curiously noting non-AI plays that are at 52-week highs including DRI, MA, GE before concluding, "It's not just one big AI bubble, and all these Nasdaq performers are like, um, you know, being bought for behavioral reasons, there's other things going on. That's all I wanted to say. It's not a dis on anyone else's portfolio. I have old economy stuff in my portfolio too."

If Josh is punching Jim in the face, Judge has been throwing left hooks

Finally getting a chance to re-enter the debate amid Josh Brown's speeches, Jim Lebenthal on Thursday's (5/18) Halftime Report said Josh made a "great point, OK, seriously," that it's "hard work," and "your point is well made," but that for Jim and Jenny, citing Warren Buffett and Graham and Dodd, their style is "also equally hard work," and the "hardest part" is being patient, "when frankly we've got you, you know, punching us in the face."

"Not punching. I love you too much," Brown said.

"OK, I was speaking figuratively," Jim said.

Judge said the "overarching" question is whether "the Jenny and Jims of the world" are wondering if they're "underinvested in AI." Judge is right, it's overarching, he said it at the top of the show.

"Yes! Of course!" Jim said. "It would be incredibly duplicitous to not answer that question yes," Jim said.

Brown stated, "One last thing on this. Do you know, uh, what Ben Graham, who thou- who, who millions of people base their philosophy on, on, on what the books that he wrote in the Great Depression, on his deathbed in the 1970s, his last remarks, which Jason Zweig has actually unearthed at the Journal, his last remarks were to the effect of, 'The stuff I was doing in the 1940s and '50s would not work now.' That was 50 years ago in the '70s he said that. The reason is, things change. And it doesn't mean that you shouldn't look for value. Everybody's looking for value. Even growth investors are trying to buy a dollar for 80 cents ... I just think it's important that we don't go overboard with formulas and, and automatically dismissing the behavior of others because they're buying things that we ourselves wouldn't buy. There is a possibility that we're wrong and other people are right. And that's all I'm trying to bring to the conversation."

"All right. Let's do this, let's take a quick break," Judge said, promising more of "Jim's buys" later.

Judge seems to sense that Jim is declaring another stock as doing great despite statistical evidence to the contrary

After the A block, most viewers probably figured the friction and fireworks from Thursday's (5/18) Halftime Report were over.

Not quite.

Jenny Harrington pronounced CSCO in a "good spot."

Then Jim Lebenthal took up the stock. He said he tries to read the earnings reports before seeing the stock's reaction. He said CSCO had a good report but was down because of "orders" but that the market seems "offsides" on this one.

That was all Judge needed to hear. Oozing skepticism, he asked Jim, "Why isn't the stock up then, if the earnings were so good."

"The short answer is the orders," Jim said, reiterating that he thinks the market is "getting it wrong today" and hoping he "made that clear" in his remarks.

"You did make it clear by suggesting 'Well the stock shouldn't have been down 4%.' OK, I get ya. That was- Maybe that was wrong. But why isn't it up?"

"Give it time, Scott. Seriously," Jim said.

Fortunately, Judge let the matter drop.

Jim bought more CVS. Josh Brown said buyers are "firmly in control" of ORCL, which is in a breakout. Josh predicted gold will "work its way higher."

Brown said it's "notable" that NFLX said that "1 out of 4 new plans are in the ad-supported tier." He also noted the stock has "round-tripped, um, that huge blowup from April of 2022."

‘It’s just a matter of when’ — Judge predicts rate cut (someday)

One of the individuals on Wednesday's (5/17) Halftime Report seemed to be making a headline-worthy market call — and it wasn't one of the panelists, but the host.

Joe Terranova said he doesn't think the Fed will cut rates unless there's an "exogenous event."

That's when Judge said, "They're gonna cut rates at some point, it's just a matter of when, obviously, they're not gonna keep rates at- what are you shakin' your head 'no' for?"

"I'm shakin' my head 'no' because I don't want them to cut rates," Joe said.

"You want rates to be 5%?" Judge asked.

"I think rates need to remain elevated until we see inflation come down further and inflation stay below 3%. I think that's goin' to take a lot longer than people anticipate," Joe said.

Steve Weiss cut in to say Judge wasn't saying they have to cut this year but "eventually."

"No, of course, " Judge said.

"That I agree with," Joe said.

"They will cut eventually; it's not gonna be this year," Weiss said.

Boy, some people touting HD get a much different reax than others

On Wednesday's (5/17) Halftime Report, Kari Firestone asserted "The consumer is spending" and made a case for HD, calling it a "premium company."

That was followed by Steve Weiss, who said, "I'm fine with it too. I mean I'd like to buy it ... frankly if I weren't so busy I would've bought it post-earnings" because it's a "perennial compounder, so why wouldn't you want to own it," while Judge moved on to other subjects.

That's interesting, because just a day ago (see below) Jim Lebenthal basically told Judge the exact same thing about HD as Kari and Weiss, only to hear "Yeah. So what?" and "It's down 10% year to date."

Guess that when some folks like the same stock, it makes a greater impression than when others do.

Stephanie Link on Wednesday called in to discuss TGT with an "oh by the way" (twice) and a "for shoure" (once). Weiss praised Link for buying TGT at $128 but said the stock move is just a "relief rally."

‘I don’t wanna say great minds think alike because that would exclude one of us’

It's pretty much a guarantee that whenever Steve Weiss is on the Halftime Report, Judge is going to ask if stocks aren't going higher.

That happened Wednesday (5/17), when Judge began by asking Weiss if he's "too negative" on the market.

"I don't wanna see (sic) great- I don't wanna say great minds think alike because that would exclude one of us," Weiss said, but he said he asks himself that question "every day."

Weiss said he wonders if the last 15 years have spawned a "new type of investor" who "just doesn't care" about the bad stuff and expects markets to mostly rise and is eventually going to keep buying.

Weiss actually said with a straight face, "If you don't have humility, you crash and burn so quickly."

Judge said he heard that Stevie Cohen was saying at a SALT Conference event at Citi Field the night before that he's "pretty bullish" and "we're goin' up." Weiss said Cohen is a great investor but "facts could change tonight" that would change Cohen's view. (And we're guessing that those "facts" would include the endless oh-we-haven't-really-felt-the-rate-hikes-from-last-year-yet thesis of Weiss.)

Joe Terranova said we've "moved away" from the free-money days; you have to be "active" and "you just can't buy the index," but there are "opportunities."

Kari Firestone said "there's definitely reasons to be more bullish."

Around the 40-minute mark, Judge wondered why the Dow was suddenly climbing 100 more points. Joe said we're starting to see "breadth" in the market and it's "obviously on optimism surrounding the debt ceiling."

Judge reverted to typical gray/blue

Judge on Wednesday's (5/17) Halftime Report asked Steve Weiss if he's interested in regional banks. "I'm not tempted in the least," Weiss said, adding "I don't know what book value is." Weiss said he'd much rather be in GS.

Joe Terranova said of regionals, "I don't think that's a risk that you wanna assume," though he called Western Alliance's update "encouraging."

Weiss said the "CAC," or "customer acquisition costs," have "gone through the roof" and so that "mutes" the addition of deposits.

Joe wondered if that's "built in" to the stock price on some level.

Weiss said "no," that he was "never concerned about the solvency of all these regional banks" because most are making money "traditional ways" and not lending to startups.

CSCO regarded as an ‘industrial,’ probably should start touting its AI program

Steve Weiss on Wednesday's (5/17) Halftime Report talked about buying FCX on Monday. "You don't have enough copper" in the world, Weiss said, and one of the "primary reasons" it traded down is because of China.

Joe Terranova said he owned FCX but sold it and so did the JOET. He said there's "less of an appetite" for commodities.

Weiss also bought the USO, he said it's a "flawed ETF" but is a way to "express a view on oil."

Kari Firestone said CRM is "doing the right thing." Joe affirmed it's in the JOET and "it's all based upon momentum."

Joe called CRWD "the cybersecurity trade" because it can gain "so much market share."

Joe said CSCO "has restored itself back in the conversation" (snicker) of large-cap tech, which you haven't been able to say for "the last couple years." (It's only been, what, actually, 20 years?) Weiss said he looks at CSCO more as an "industrial company," not a "technology company."

Kari Firestone's Final Trade was GOOGL "not because of AI" (snicker) but digital ads picking up.

Weiss told Judge, "I've been flying a lot, so I've had a lot of time to think, because I don't sleep on planes."

The big question: Did Judge’s new burgundy jacket work?

There was lots of interesting stuff on Tuesday's (5/16) Halftime Report.

But, admit it, you were thinking about optics, just like everyone else:

Did Judge hit a home run with his sharp new jacket?

Honestly, this page is about the last place on earth that should be doing fashion critiques. We can tell the difference between Louboutins and Converse (even though we really don't know what Louboutins are), but that's about it.

But, as always, it comes down to reviewing television. And on this particular day, it seems clear, CNBC's Halftime host made a notable departure from his fairly standard gray/navy ensembles (not particularly conservative, but gray/navy), kind of like Tom Osborne's Nebraska Cornhuskers suddenly employing Steve Spurrier's Fun N Gun.

Judge's color on Tuesday was not one often seen on the network. In fact, after careful deliberation, we settled on "burgundy," although that likely isn't right.

So the question is, Did. This. Jacket. Work. (Gulp. Here goes.) Our review: Yes, it did, but it may not be Judge's color.

We hope/expect Judge received plenty of compliments at Post 9 and had a big night after his shows wrapped.

‘Yeah. So what.’ No patience for a ‘thought experiment,’ Judge tees off on Jim on HD, regional banks

Perhaps trying to reestablish some sort of rapport with Judge, Jim Lebenthal on Tuesday's (5/16) Halftime Report tried a "thought experiment."

Jim questioned, if he had announced a year ago that interest rates would triple in a year, and that HD would be down 1% total return over a year, would Judge have believed him. "You would've said no, this stock's gonna be down 25% or more," Jim decided (and we kinda knew that was playing with fire). (Note: The photo above, we weren't going out of our way to find an austere look; rather, that was simply what the camera caught in the opening introductions.)

Judge said, "Maybe. I would've said, maybe, well, people aren't gonna be able to buy homes because of mortgage rates going up, they'll spend more to just fix up their places, so maybe it's going to be better than you would otherwise think."

Jim continued, asserting that given all the changes in rates in a year, the conclusion would've been that HD is "not the place to be. And yet it's hung in there," Jim said.

Judge responded, "Is it 'hanging in there'? It's down 10% year to date."

"OK, I mean, as I just said, you know, a year, a year of nothing but interest rate hikes, right, you know, 500 basis point-" Jim said.

"Yeah. So what. Let's look forward. What happens NOW?" Judge cut in.

"Exactly! Exactly! Thank you very much! You're looking for, and I'm expecting interest-rate stability," Jim said, adding, "I do believe the Fed is done" and there's a "strong need for housing."

Josh Brown joined this awkward dialogue, stating it was "the biggest year-over-year drop for quarterly Home Depot sales since 2009." Brown said "I don't know if that was the bottom for Home Depot stock," but he cautioned this is a "new environment" for most HD shareholders, at least in 15 years.

"Management's totally up to it," said Stephanie Link, unfazed. Judge also quibbled with Stephanie, suggesting consumers may be "becoming more sensitive to bigger-ticket purchases."

Honestly, we’re thinking about summoning our contacts at NBCUni and telling the ‘SNL’ people, there’s a daily feud taking place on the Halftime Report that you guys should take a crack at

In the 2nd half of Tuesday's (5/16) Halftime Report, Judge asked Jim Lebenthal why Jim owns the KRE.

And Judge, much to everyone's chagrin, evidently wasn't in the mood to be joking around.

Jim said it's a "trading position" and he "put it on too early"; he said it's down 17% since he bought it.

Josh Brown jumped in to do some of the questioning, pointing to the "middle case" with regionals, suggesting many are "fine," but he asked Jim, "How do they ever grow earnings again."

Jim said that's not the "conversation" right now, rather it's "who's next to be taken out by the FDIC," so Jim thinks "that damage" that Brown is referring to "is already in there." But Brown and Stephanie Link said these stocks could have 5 multiples "forever."

Judge then said Jim made an "impassioned case" (which is really overstating what Jim said) for the value in KRE. Then Judge demanded, "So why aren't you adding more?"

Jim said "I think I've got a little time" and acknowledged it's down 17% but bluntly addressing the line of questioning, "I'm feeling like my face is getting punched in."

Jim added, "I don't need to add to this, uh, heroic bet by jumping in more now, let me just give it a little time."

"Is that heroic? I mean-" Judge started to say.

"I think it is heroic," Josh Brown cut in, though Judge even bristled at that, as Brown explained "these stocks are now selling where they were selling in March of 2020."

Meanwhile, Stephanie Link bought JNJ, calling it "underappreciated." But she's only got a "small position" because the talc resolution is still ahead.

Judge pronounced it "David Einhern (sic) (snicker)" but corrected himself.

According to Wikipedia, the only Top 10 song by Big Head Todd and the Monsters is ‘Broken Hearted Savior’

In the Halftime Report/Fast Money Call of the Year sweepstakes, this page has noted Brad Gerstner's trumpeting of META back when the stock was in the upper 100s.

Josh Brown, who pretty much alone among panelists has been predicting an AI gusher this year, could end up catching up with Gerstner.

Judge opened Tuesday's (5/16) Halftime Report asking Brown about the current/pending rally in AI.

Josh said, "I told you, in February, I wrote a blog post about it, we did a segment on it, I told you, we are going to have a bubble in AI. And I told you that bubble would include not just trash, not just de-SPAC'ed penny stocks, but some of the biggest, most important companies in the world. And their stocks would get caught up in it. And that is exactly what's playing out."

Josh asserted, "The technology revolution being ushered in by AI is absolutely real."

Brown added, "It wll not stop until Jensen Huang is on the cover of Time magazine, the same way that John Chambers from Cisco was at the top of the dot-com bubble."

Brown said the masses getting involved doesn't mean you have to get out. "I didn't throw out Big Head Todd and the Monsters just because all of a sudden, they had a Top 10 hit song in the 1990s," Brown revealed.

Judge displayed a nice graphic showing a "big difference" between multiples of hot tech now vs. QCOM, CSCO and YHOO (snicker) in early 2000, though Judge said that doesn't mean today's valuations are "justified."

Even Jim Lebenthal is in 2 of those "AI" names, GOOGL and MSFT.

Jim said "Yeah it's gonna be a bubble" and he contended it's now in "early to mid-stages," but GOOGL is "kinda cheap" and MSFT is not "ridiculously expensive."

Brown pointed out the value in staying with a name such as NVDA through the occasional downgrade over quarterly concerns while the investing community eventually swarms to it, though he conceded it's "hard to know" when to trim a little.

In his first jab of the day at Jim's portfolio (there were many more), Judge asked Jim if there are "better earnings growth rates" in industrials than in these "top quality" AI stocks. Jim said there are "some," and Stephanie Link volunteered a few names.

Brown predicted a lot of companies, including "mostly failing" ones, will change their strategies and names and perhaps even ticker symbols to become "AI-centric companies." Judge said sure, but that's just "bubblicious" type of activity. But Brown said short sellers will "take them apart."

Brown also said the "IPO machine" will "ramp up" to levels not seen in 25 years. And Brown said a very big company "will make a very stupid acquisition and that will seal like the end of this AI bubble that I know is coming."

David Tepper's name came up in the AI conversation (not in the Bryce Young/NFL Draft conversation, as there basically has been none). Judge said in Tepper's 13F, "it was like, well, there was a position in ARKK, A-R-K-K, and Tesla. He's not in those stocks anymore. Um, those were- those were trades."

What exactly does Judge mean by ‘responsibility’? (a/k/a were the PTON longs in 2020 and 2021 asked about the ‘actual exit’?)

We'll get to Monday's (5/15) Halftime Report in a moment.

First, an interesting word came up in Friday's (5/12) Halftime Report, a word that probably isn't in the standard CNBC Contributor Contract.

Judge heard Jim Lebenthal explain that Jim's "looking for the exits" in PARA, and couldn't resist piling on, a couple times, asking Jim where that "exit" is with a curious 6-syllable "r" word.

"I feel like you guys have a responsibility when you continue to talk positively about a stock that seems to be, um, in some respects broken, having some severe challenges but yet you have a willingness to stay with it and express your views to our viewers which I appreciate the honesty and the candor and- and your ability to do that," Judge said. "But it cuts both ways. Um, now, you know, people are sitting on a stock that's gotten smoked, and they're probably a little angry about it and I wanna know what you're thinking about the actual exit."

(Judge appreciates panelists' "ability" to tout their favorite stocks???? OK.)

Jim gave a fair answer. He said not to sell "in anger" and most importantly, he doesn't think this is "the right price to sell." (Translation: He thinks it's going higher.) Most of the time, panelists, on the day a stock spikes higher, will tell you to wait to buy. Fair advice.

But back to Judge's "responsibility" ... What, exactly, is the "responsibility" that Judge seems to think his panelists owe viewers?

1. Admit the trade didn't work? That happens all the time and happened in this particular dialogue before Judge even brought up "responsibility."

2. Declare the price they're going to sell at? We're not sure we've ever heard a Halftime/Fast Money host ever demand that information from a panelist, though Judge came close on Friday. (They barely even demanded a phantom timeline from the Najarians as far as option holding periods.)

3. Refund losses suffered by viewers who got into these trades? Hoo boy, expect a long line at Englewood Cliffs. (There used to be legalese on the screen to avoid those kinds of possibilities; now it's all on the website.)

4. Give back their appearance fees for episodes in which they made bad calls? Yeah, sure, that's gonna happen.

It's certainly true that Jim's long-running commentary on his favorite stocks CLF, PARA and GM (and maybe a few others) has been long-running stale, as has Jim's supposed thesis about all the onshoring and Ohio infrastructure investment by INTC. And Jim's comment on Dec. 28 that "I haven't lost money until I sell" isn't really believed by anyone and sounds like what amateurs say.

The problem isn't Jim — or other panelists (there are several folks, no names this time, who heavily invest in tech, which didn't exactly have a banner year in 2022) — making wrong calls. The problem is Judge bringing back these people sometimes 4 times a week to say the same thing over and over again. We're scratching our heads about Jim's "responsibility" ... if Judge has had it with Jim's calls, simply put Jim on the Mike Farr schedule. We'll look forward to hearing his latest picks ... in August.

Judge and Joe have a much different view on the ‘consensus’

Joe Terranova on Monday's (5/15) Halftime Report curiously claimed that "overwhelmingly, the consensus is looking to get back into risk."

But Judge countered, "I don't feel like the consensus is looking to add to risk. I feel like the consensus is still looking to run away from stocks." (Hmmmmm. That's like a 180 from what Joe said.)

Joe said people who are bearish will step in on a pullback.

Judge said Joe needs to "qualify" what kind of a "pullback" he means. Joe said "I would actually be active on a 3-4% pullback."

Jenny Harrington said some of her clients who are "comfortable" getting K-1s are in MMP, those who hate K-1s (hands going up around here) are in OKE. Jenny said OKE is getting a "phenomenal company" and it's "completely ridiculous" for OKE shares to be down so much on Monday.

Joe said OKE is "in a very strong position" and doesn't need to be sold to another company.

Jenny actually said, "It doesn't really matter about the natural gas pricing. They're pipeline companies," marking the 2nd time in a week that someone on the Halftime Report has claimed that oil or natural gas stocks don't correlate with the price of oil or natural gas.

Josh Brown said shareholders "win regardless" of how the pending SHAK proxy battle plays out. Brown credited SHAK management for getting through the pandemic and said "they've done an amazing job in a terrible circumstance."

Brown revealed, "I was doing secondary stock offerings for Hain Celestial in 1998 as a cold-calling stockbroker."

Jenny Harrington called SCHW "pretty spectacular." But Joe said there's not "enough clarity" to buy regional banks yet.

Judge wonders if Joe’s latest stock purchase is ‘dangerous’

Joe Terranova on Monday's (5/15) Halftime Report said he bought DDOG as promised, saying, "It's all about trying to create some alpha." Joe started off explaining the fundamentals before finally getting to the point: "The stock is up significantly in the last 8 trading days."

Judge said "it's up 30+% in a month" and wondered if it's a "dangerous" purchase.

"I would not use the word 'dangerous,'" Joe said. Judge wondered if he should say "silly." Joe said the stock could pull back but it's "secular in its nature" and "I'm not afraid of a pullback."

Jenny Harrington said she doesn't like the "broad brush" and doesn't like labels such as "defensive" sectors. Jenny likes PANW (yes, it's in the Disciplined Growth Strategy and yes it's a name that Joe used to mention all the time).

Rob Sechan cautioned about tech as a defensive play, "you gotta be careful" about valuations. Sechan said one of his shop's portfolio managers owns NEWR, the "same business" as DDOG and it even made the "same announcement" about AI a week before DDOG "and it didn't move the stock."

Judge noted Paul Tudor Jones earlier on CNBC said he thinks the Fed is "done."

Joe insisted that his "thesis" for DDOG goes beyond a Fed pause. "It's just not about momentum. It's about quality," Joe asserted.

Jenny said, "All you have to do is put out a press release that says 'AI,' and the stock's getting a pop."

"Not necessarily, right, it has to be-" Judge wrongly said.

"It seemed like some companies were trying that," Jenny insisted.

Rob Sechan mentioned "seduction" (snicker) a couple of times.

>

Judge says Jim, other panelists have a ‘responsibility’ to ... Hmmmmmmmm ... apparently trash their own bad stocks

On Friday's (5/12) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal actually said about PARA, "I'm looking for the exits to tell you the truth." Jim added, "They should sell the company."

As would be expected, that got the attention of Judge, who said it's significant that Jim is "playing for an event" because that was "not anywhere close" to Jim's previous rationale.

Josh Brown said Shari Redstone would rather own the company at $5 a share than sell it for $20.

Jim said Shari is facing a "considerable decrease in income" because of the PARA dividend cut, so she may be more open to a sale than Brown indicated.

Judge noted, though, that Jim mentioned selling and asked Jim, "Where is the exit?," adding that "I feel like you guys have a responsibility when you continue to talk positively about a stock that seems to be, um, in some respects broken."

Jim conceded that "this one is broken" but people shouldn't sell "in anger ... I don't think this is the right price to sell."

Jim says he’s not saying that FANG is going to ‘suck’

We figured we'd catch a few sentences from Al Michaels on Friday's (5/12) Halftime Report and call it a day.

But no.

Jim was on the show, and so was Weiss, and both CLF and PARA came up.

And Judge couldn't wait to tangle with Jim right off the bat.

Judge opened the show saying he wanted to "take the temperature" of Big Tech. Josh Brown said fundamentals aren't like 2021 but are "pretty good." Brown thinks those stocks can "remain OK."

Judge then said Jim Lebenthal has been "looking for more cyclical exposure and urging our viewers to do just that at the expense, in large part, of tech."

"Yeah. It's a- It's a question of degree. And this is not at any point have I said, 'Sell all of your tech and go to cyclicals. I own Alphabet, I own Apple, just as an example-" Jim started to say.

"It's not even a matter of selling and go to, it's simply being predisposed to say I favor these over those-" Judge said, apparently suddenly writing Jim's speeches for him.

"That's exactly right. That's exactly right, Scott, perfect. Thank you," Jim said, adding, "And I like what Josh just said, this isn't a, 'omigod, these stocks, the FANG stocks, are gonna suck from here. That's not the comment at all."

Rather, Jim said his thesis is that we've got "better economic growth coming from the hard-asset sectors."

Anastasia Amoroso, though, said she favors tech, asking, "Where else are you going to go?"

Josh Brown suggested that for LeBron James, and AAPL, being great has been the case for 20 years and it's not a story anymore. Brown said, "People think they look smarter when they're contrarian ... but the herd is not always wrong."

Weiss refuses to divulge the business leaders who are telling him secrets about the economy

In a jab at Jim Lebenthal, Steve Weiss on Friday's (5/12) Halftime questioned owning industrials that need to have buildings and warehouses and plants built. "Why would you ever buy a stock in front of a capex cycle? You wouldn't," Weiss said.

Jim said Weiss is "always trying to get my goat," but Jim agreed there's "career risk" for those not following the herd into tech stocks. But Jim said there's a "cogent thesis" to cyclicals and that what Jim is hearing from CEOs such as Craig Billings, Ed Bastian and Mary Barra is different than what Weiss is hearing; "we're just clearly talking to a different group of business leaders."

"No no no, Jim, we're not. We're- we're- Well, yes we are, but we're also not," Weiss said, insisting he talks to public CEOs as well as "private company CEOs."

"Name them. Name them," Jim demanded.

"Do you we want me to name the people I'm talk-" Weiss began to ask.

Josh Brown, who nowadays is somehow agreeing with everyone (we're not complaining; it's a positive development), tried to cut in to say "I think you're both right" and "Could I say one thing?"

"No no you can't, let me just finish the thought," Weiss said. "The public company CEOs are sittin' there with their lawyers in the room. They can't tell you something different than they've said. They're managing their public company investors-"

"Oh that's so wrong. Come on, come on. That's so wrong," Jim said.

"That's not wrong," Weiss said.

Josh suggested looking at the "divergence" between the S&P and Russell 2000 and how there's not the same "confidence" in the economy among the latter group.

Weiss continued, telling Jim, "No I'm not gonna give you names." Jim said, "But then stop doing it from this anonymous-"

Judge cut in, "You guys can each talk to whoever the heck you want to talk to. It actually means absolutely zero in terms of where the actual stocks and the stock market is, is gonna go."

"It's absolutely not true," Weiss said.

"It obviously is," Judge said.

"The market's eventually gonna go where the economy goes," Weiss said.

Weiss: ‘People can’t get enough’ of AI in the stock market

Shortly into Friday's (5/12) Halftime Report, Judge remotely brought in Steve Weiss, who bought GOOGL on Monday afterhours. (This writer is long GOOGL. Surprisingly, Judge didn't say that Brad Gerstner hates the stock.)

Weiss said, "It's pretty simple: AI is a, just an incredible theme in the market. People can't get enough of it."

Weiss then said most investors don't have "freedom of choice" like he does and can't do fixed income or credit, so they may "beat their chest" about being 20% in cash, "but the tail's not gonna wag the dog," they have to be allocated to stocks and they need to be in these tech gainers so that they don't have to explain to clients why they're not in.

Despite all that, Weiss admitted, "I do think they're the best places to be."

Weiss said "Zuck" is a "great CEO," but "he's the same guy that overhired dramatically."

Jim says it’s probably only ‘algos and hedge funds’ that are selling CLF

Jim Lebenthal on Friday's (5/12) Halftime Report said interest rates at this level are manageable, but the problem is for regional banks if there's not a Fed pause; Jim "can't see a good outcome."

"It's crazy how vociferously the bond market is pricing in cuts at the end of the year," said Josh Brown.

Judge asked Jim how he can be "overwhelmingly bullish on the industrial economy" given that copper's having its "worst week since February" and CLF is down 18½% in a month. Jim agreed "those are facts" but "the facts have been changing pretty darn rapidly." Then Jim dismissed recent metals market trading as "schizophrenic."

Josh Brown questioned Jim's confidence in CLF. Jim said that a couple weeks ago, the CEO, 2 other officers and a director "bought shares on the open market," and Jim suggested that CLF selling is coming from "probably algos and hedge funds."

Judge chuckled and said he didn't want to sound "so negative," but that argument is an "insult to the intelligence of real investors who may believe that there's no reason to own stocks like that now." Jim said what he sees is "quite positive in the long run."

Butt Fumble makes Halftime Report

Al Michaels, the star guest of Friday's (5/12) Halftime Report who had to wait forever while Judge hectored Jim Lebenthal over several slumping stocks, talked up the 2023 season's slate of Thursday Night Football matchups (which won't start for another 4 months). Al even mentioned announcing the Jets' "Butt Fumble Game."

Al asked Josh Brown about the QQQ and SSO. Josh told Michaels that he thinks the QQQ will outperform the S&P 500 in the 2nd half; he's not necessarily bearish on the S&P but because SSO is leveraged, he'd use a "trailing 50-day stop."

Brown didn't seem to have much advice for Al's FAS position, which Al said used to be up 1,500% and is now up only 700%. (This writer is long FAS.)

Al told Jim he owns CLF because of Jim. But Al wonders if CLF will be a "tax loss" 10 years from now. "I think the numbers really justify this, Al," Jim said, before going on to cite cash on enterprise value (Zzzzzzzzz).

During Final Trades, Judge called Steve Weiss "Dracula."

We get it — Brad Gerstner doesn’t want to own GOOGL

Thursday's (5/11) Halftime Report was basically Bryn Talkington's Show. But it was Amy Raskin who got things rolling on DIS.

Amy said DIS had a "sloppy quarter" and that there's "still confusion out there."

Josh Brown said, "People don't realize how long the share price has been struggling," stating that over 30 years, it has "underperformed" the S&P 500.

Jason Snipe, who tends to discuss stocks with as much excitement as Al Michaels called that LAC-Jax Wild Card game, said he sold DIS in 2021 and prefers the "pure play" NFLX (although it's not exactly an apples to apples comparison).

Bryn was the one giving a speech, stating Iger's "temporary CEO" status is a "big overhang" on the stock. (She may have a point there; wait until he gets a 5-year contract.) Bryn said people expected DIS to get out of Hulu, not "bring it all in," and there's a "conflict" in that Hulu "has some, you know, adult content." Bryn sees the company as "stuck in the mud."

Another stock "stuck in the mud" according to Bryn is PYPL. Bryn questioned the lack of CEO successor, which she called an "elephant on the chest of PayPal investors." She's thinking about selling.

Jason Snipe affirmed he still owns PYPL and noted all the competitive concerns, or reasons not to own the stock. Judge demanded to know why Snipe owns the stock. Jason cited the "great track record" of Elliott but said the stock is "under review."

Meanwhile, on more pressing stock market concerns, Bryn said, "I think within the regional banks, this death by a thousand cuts just does not work."

Josh Brown said he doesn't think the "bottoming process" will be like a "V" but "it's gonna go on, almost forever" (which kinda seems like a major market call, but whatever).

Josh outlined the grim stats of the KRE, including, "97% of the components are negative year to date," all of which suggests this isn't going to clear up imminently.

Amy Raskin said that if the bottoming does play out for a long time, it's "good for the market."

Bryn predicted a "3 handle on CPI" by the end of July.

Josh Brown, for probably the 3rd time in the past week, touted GOOGL and how it's not DOA in the AI space or permanently behind MSFT or losing the "first mover" battle; Judge, for probably the 3rd or 4th or 5th time in the past week, noted that Brad Gerstner sold the stock and complained about it. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Bryn said RBLX found its footing after the conference call; Bryn likes the stock.

Bryn conceded China's reopening has been slow but is "picking up." Bryn said 34.60 is "very important" support for FCX and if it breaks, look to add it around 30. Bryn explained, "When China gets a cold, copper gets the flu."

Josh Brown said "you should do well" in a gold equity such as NEM.

Josh knocked BROS, one of his picks earlier this year, for 2 things, "they reiterated they have a 15-year plan, uh, and then they blamed the weather; 19% of their stores are in California."

Judge actually says ‘Jim is undeniably correct’ (as Joe, Jenny and Sarat get to be the day’s Post 9 buffers)

Jim Lebenthal on Wednesday's (5/10) Halftime Report said there's a "simple explanation" for the lack of a rally Wednesday; the market's in "fear of a recession."

Jim, though, finds this a "good setup."

Jenny Harrington said she's not sure about the recession fear but that this is an "incredibly opaque environment." Jenny said she's waiting for "some kind of clarity." Judge wondered where that will come from. Jenny said it's not a "wonderful answer," but we need "2 more quarters of earnings" (Zzzzzzzzzzzz).

Judge was actually heard to say, "Jim is undeniably correct," that recession fear is the "overhang."

Joe Terranova offered, "We are absolutely in an environment where the economy is contracting." But Jim suggested housing's already coming out of recession.

"There's no catalyst in the short term," concluded Sarat Sethi.

Donald Trump and John Kerry mocked Rep. Thomas Massie for questioning CARES Act spending

Jeremy Siegel was the star guest of Wednesday's (5/11) Halftime Report, but frankly his commentary was a far cry from the sexier headlines he created in previous appearances.

Siegel said he agrees that fear of a recession is an "overhang."

"We have really not seen how this banking crisis is impinging on lending," Siegel said, explaining, "All the problems started with all the fiscal stimulus that was totally financed by printing money, causing all this inflation."

(Actually, "all" the problems weren't caused that way. Cars no longer being built was also a part of it.)

Jeremy said if there's a recession, it'll be a "mild" one and not like the "wringing out" that we had in 2008-09.

Jim Lebenthal said there's a "reasonably good chance that we skirt out of a recession."

Uh-oh: Jim referred to Judge’s ‘tone’

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (5/10) Halftime Report picked up the GOOGL conversation from a day earlier, saying Josh Brown made a "very eloquent case" for the stock, though Joe said "a lot of that" was based on "technicals" and that management will have to "correct" its own "degree of culpability." (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Sarat Sethi said GOOGL may be behind in AI but it's only the "1st and 2nd inning." Jim Lebenthal, who was positive on the company, said there is "little" in the way of positives priced in to GOOGL. Jim said "Google is still a verb" and "synonymous with search."

Judge said he reached out to Carl Icahn on the heels of the U.S. attorney news; Judge only got a lawyer statement saying they won't "stand by idly."

Jenny Harrington bought OGN, which she described as a Merck spinoff with all the slower-growth businesses that Merck didn't want. But it's got a 5% dividend and going to have "a billion dollars of free cash flow in the next year." Joe said biotech is getting "reenergized."

Joe said he sold TWLO on the open Wednesday; he bought it at $74 on March 6 on the "technical breakout." Judge wondered "how deep of a conversation did you and yourself have about this?" Joe said it's a "valuable lesson" and he's "not gonna beat myself up on it" and it's just a "dent" in what has been success over the years in trading the stock.

Sarat Sethi affirmed owning RBLX, which he said is building a "huge user base," but you shouldn't have a "huge" position in the name.

Judge asked Jim Lebenthal about WYNN. Jim insisted it had a "fabulous quarter" though "I caught your tone and it's appropriate because the stock is down." Judge joked, "Maybe you need to have a conversation with yourself, like Joe."

Joe said DIS isn't in the JOET because of "no momentum."

Is there such a thing as an ‘Un’disciplined Growth Strategy fund? (a/k/a Jenny implies META soared because of Southeast Asia market share)

Tuesday's (5/9) Halftime Report, a crisp production (except for when Joe stumbled over 1 simple word, which you'll see in a moment), caught fire in the A Block when Josh Brown suggested GOOGL is at a "moment of truth" that's looking upward. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Josh said he thinks GOOGL is having a "breakout in progress," citing technicals, but he also said it's got some of the fundamental tailwinds of external pressure as META had last year.

Joe Terranova started to say, "Rarely do I agree with my younger brother from Nassau County," but this is all about the technicals, and then Judge quickly stepped in.

"You were gonna say rarely do you disagree," Judge told Joe.

"Rarely do I disagree," Joe said.

"You said rarely do you agree, I think," Judge said, which was correct.

"Yeah, I was about to fight you," Brown joked to Joe.

"Rarely do I disagree. I apologize," Joe said, before advising "stay on the technicals" and not the fundamentals of GGOGL.

That all honestly wouldn't have been much of anything, except Jenny Harrington jumped on the pile with a dubious argument against GOOGL that led to some very healthy discussion about tech giants.

Jenny told Josh, "We looked at Google for a long time ... where we get stuck every time is that 90% share in search. And I don't know how they have anywhere to go but down."

(Actually, that's been the counterargument to investing in Google since it went public, but we don't want to interrupt.)

"Why is share the most important thing to you?" Brown asked Jenny, as opposed to profits. Jenny said that to maintain the profitability level the company's at, it needs to "maintain" market share.

Josh said he's not sure if that "translates" into stock price performance, an excellent counterpoint. Jenny said "everyone's coming at them" (not really true; we don't see big threats to search and YouTube out there) and "they're not gonna be able to maintain that lead."

Brown asked Jenny, if GOOGL converted its $70 billion buyback into dividends, would she buy the stock for the dividend. Jenny said that's "too hypothetical" but that it would "always be in our disciplined growth strategy."

Brown then asked what Jenny needs from the company, suggesting maybe she wants it to lose market share and gain it back — a great question. Jenny asserted, "You need to see a clear path to sustainable earnings growth," which seems a statement more relevant to, say, LYFT, than this particular company.

"This is the king of sustainable earnings growth!" Brown said.

"It has been. It's already been," Jenny insisted.

Judge then weighed in, saying he's "so confused" by the argument Jenny's making because "the same exact things" could've been said about META and yet Jenny owns that one. Jenny said her argument with META was that "there was significant market share still to gain."

Josh questioned if META was moving on market share. Jenny said the argument against META a while back is that it's "soccer moms" using it and "not popular," but outside of the U.S., in Southeast Asia, numbers were "unbelievable."

Jenny added that she didn't see "dramatic competitive pressure" for META other than the "one area" of TikTok. Brown said all of META's growth is Instagram, and that's one of the most "dramatic" competitive spaces. Jenny said Instagram is all of the growth in the U.S., not overseas.

So now oil stocks have nothing to do with the price of oil. (OK.)

Judge on Tuesday's (5/9) Halftime Report said Goldman Sachs is calling for 20% upside in COP.

Joe Terranova said something about rarely does he agree, or maybe it was disagree that COP has pulled back since the fall, but it's in JOET and people should stay with it.

Judge noted COP is "down 14% year to date," plus 27% off its 52-week high, and oil is $72, so, "Why here? Why now?"

Joe chuckled and said, "Scott this is a stock that was $20 in 2020," which doesn't answer Judge's good question.

"So the price of oil doesn't matter to the price of this stock?" Judge wondered.

"No. The business is diversified enough," Joe claimed.

"OK," Judge said.

"Over 1-year time frames, there is no correlation between oil prices and oil stock prices. Joe is correct," insisted Josh Brown, and we couldn't help but wonder exactly what "1-year time frames" are we talking about, especially given the 2-year comparison of USO and XOM above.

Jenny Harrington suggested energy has suffered from "shareholder base turnover" but "if you get in now, there's probably a lot of money to be made."

Judge shrugged that energy is "the worst sector in the S&P this year." Josh Brown said "it goes in and out of favor."

Joe & Josh, almost agreeing on everything again (cont’d)

Judge on Tuesday's (5/9) Halftime Report said the debt ceiling is "percolating" but not "boiling over" just yet. Jenny Harrington said the stock market won't pay attention "until we actually stop paying a bill" because we're all "inured" to "political theater."

Judge suggested the debt ceiling "is gonna be this overhang until it isn't." Joe Terranova said he agrees with that. Josh Brown said he "almost always" agrees with "everything" Joe says (see above), but Brown stated that regarding this issue, "I don't see it being a market story for more than a day."

"I don't either," agreed Jenny Harrington.

But Joe said it'll be difficult for the market to "break out" until the debt ceiling is resolved.

Jenny said she bought SWKS a few months ago but was "early." She's still comfortable with the stock though. Josh Brown questioned the low multiple of 10 times.

Josh Brown said, as he has before, that PYPL is in a "really really really hard business" and that the "bread and butter" of the business is shifting to Apple.

Surprised that Judge didn’t ask panelists about Warren Buffett’s remarks on Garanimals

On Monday's (5/8) Halftime Report, Judge brought up the Berkshire meeting and cited Warren Buffett's "lack of ownership of the banks" other than BAC and asked panelists what that means.

Nobody really seemed to think it means much of anything.

Steve Weiss said regional banks are "too small" for Buffett to own, he wants "too big to fail." Weiss noted that Buffett said that until there's a "penalty" for poor bank management, he's "probably not interested."

Weiss also suggested that Buffett and Munger would perhaps be much more critical, but "they don't want to create another run on the banks."

Weiss said banks' book value is a "moving target."

Joe Terranova said that to buy a regional bank, he needs "confidence" in several things. Joe doesn't see anything besides "further consolidation" in regionals.

Joe faulted Treasury, FDIC and the Fed because "I don't see the support being put in place for these regional banks."

Weiss said Buffett has only been buying PARA (which Weiss attributed to an associate) and OXY recently and if he really saw a market recovery, "He would've been buying other things."

Liz Young said she wouldn't be surprised if Buffett in 6 months is talking about looking at banks.

Judge aired Buffett's AAPL comment about people giving up a 2nd car before they'd give up their iPhone. Weiss said, "It's not the consumer paying $1,500. It's the telcos paying it. ... I think Apple would be a different story if it was actually consumers paying it."

Not clear if Judge is thinking about Weiss’ suggestion of becoming a bank examiner

On Monday's (5/8) Halftime Report, Liz Young said it's a "huge week" for inflation but that "flat" would be "not a great sign."

Liz said she's been waiting for a week that drives the market one direction or another, but she's not sure this will be one.

Joe Terranova pronounced the market "incredibly resilient." But Joe said we're "clearly in a consolidation range (Zzzzzzz)."

Steve Weiss suggested that one of Liz's favorite shows growing up was "Hogan's Heroes" and that this is a "Sergeant Schultz Market." Weiss said "Friday I found bizarre" and that people are looking at tech earnings to justify the market. Weiss said he'd be inclined to be short, but in this market, "you can get your face ripped off."

Weiss said the S&P "maybe" goes to 3,400.

Joe predicted the "headline of this week" will be "Lending standards are gonna tighten."

Judge asked Joe if a Fed cut would be positive. Joe said it's not positive for stocks if "they have to cut." Joe said he wants the Fed, and whatever it might say at every excruciating meeting, to stop being "front and center" in the markets, he's hoping for a pause. Judge said "I know what you want," but "they are going to be whether you like it or not."

Judge didn’t comment on that slick blue background in the TV set at the Berkshire meeting

On Monday's (5/8) Halftime Report, Judge curiously seemed to need Joe Terranova and Steve Weiss to explain how refinery margins work.

Joe said there's a fundamental reason to be overweight energy. Weiss said this is a "good place" to buy oil stocks and praised Darren Woods. Judge led that conversation into an earlier-than-usual ETF Edge with Bob Pisani. Judge also didn't give viewers a chance to guess the Chart of the Day before announcing it's OXY.

Joe described ALB as "pure play exposure to lithium" and gave a history of its recent trading. Joe suggested "the reopening of China" could be a catalyst for ALB but noted the stock will be volatile. Joe conceded there's been "friction" in China's reopening.

Joe's Final Trade was to be long AMD with a stop at 85.48 or lower.

Can’t know whether a draft is ‘great’ until years from now

In a fairly sleepy, if slightly upbeat (check the ticker) episode of CNBC's Halftime Report on Friday (5/5), Judge said Tom Lee still sees "good risk/reward" even if the timing has been "pushed out."

Rob Sechan said you have to "temper your enthusiasm" about earnings. Jason Snipe predicted the Fed is "gonna pause at this point."

9 minutes in, Judge said it almost feels like, "Almost nothing matters but the regional banks."

Jason Snipe said regionals at this time aren't an opportunity.

Jason also said the debt-ceiling debate to some extent is "theater."

"Theater of the absurd," Judge said.

(Actually, why is it "absurd" ... 2 political parties bargaining with each other ... we've been hearing for literally decades from one side or the other how such and such an issue is supposedly above politics ... but they really aren't, are they?)

Stephanie Link bought FTNT. Judge questioned if it's wise to buy a stock up "25%" (sic moments later it was "30%") year to date. Link said "it's only up 14% in the last year, right." Rob Sechan endorsed Link's buy.

Speaking with Mike Tirico about the Kentucky Derby, Judge finally had the brass to bring up the NFL Draft (unlike the Derby, it wasn't televised by NBCUni) and stated "it feels like the rich got richer," specifically regarding the Philadelphia Eagles. Tirico suggested Philly is the "1% or even more inside of the 1%" (interesting that a team "inside of the 1%" couldn't stop a thing in the Super Bowl) and flat-out declared "Philadelphia had a great draft."

Well, why bother to play any games? Let Mike hand out the Lombardi Trophy today.

Jenny says we ‘know’ the market is going up over ‘the long run’

Some of the most curious things you'll hear on CNBC involve taxes.

On Thursday's (5/4) Halftime Report, Jenny Harrington said, "Most of my clients are fully invested," then revealed this:

"They have long-term capital gains, right, why pay the tax; we all know that over the long run, the market's going up."

Hmmmmmm ...

Well first of all, long-term capital gains are taxed a lot more favorably than short-term ones.

Second, assuming we are talking about taxable accounts as Jenny clearly indicated, the moment a stock increases in value, a tax liability is incurred.

Yes, there are ways to do write-downs, write-offs, etc. (basically for most people it means hoping your other investments tumble, just so you can negate the taxes on the gainers, which is a curious strategy itself) ... but really, the only way to not "pay the tax" as Jenny stated is to never sell.

Fine. But then really, what's the point? "My goal is to have a bunch of long-term capital gains accruing in my stocks at the time I pass away." OK. Fine. Whatever floats your boat. (Tip: The government's probably still going to get a lot of those taxes anyway rather than your heirs.)

Perhaps Jenny was simply referring to people in working years who don't want to sell stocks until they've retired and thus are in a lower tax bracket for the gains.

That's a sensible strategy, except stock gains aren't guaranteed to last ... ask the folks who were at Englewood Cliffs on Y2K and planning to retire in a decade whether their GE stock really ended up funding their golden years.

Jim refuses to throw in the towel on PARA

It took more than halfway through Thursday's (5/4) Halftime Report to get to the story of the day — PARA's tumble.

Longtime (and we mean longtime) PARA bull Jim Lebenthal wasn't on the show, but Jim did dial in to discuss the day's carnage with Judge.

This was one of those calls, and we've all had them, where it really didn't matter what Judge asked or said; obviously Jim was going to outline his current thinking on this particular name.

"I'm having a bad day" that included getting "punched in the face" by the stock, Jim revealed ... but he's not selling.

Jim insisted the stock is trading "below intrinsic fair value."

Once again, Jim compared PARA's metrics with NFLX in arguing for a higher stock price, while NFLX is clearly a one-off on ... everything.

We never really figured out why or how this stock got on Jim's radar except, as has become obvious over the years based on commentary on the program, Jim apparently was interested in a value play in the once-sexy streaming space, and when those are your parameters, you really don't have many options, unless you count DIS, which isn't exactly "deep value." It's kinda like a Nasdaq 100 investor deciding to find the highest cost-to-sales multiple in coal stocks.

If the Fed refuses to deal with more than one problem at a time, we’re in big trouble (a/k/a Which civilization was ‘destroyed’ by 8% CPI?)

Josh Brown said at the top of Thursday's (5/4) Halftime Report that the recent hikes are "crazy" and "I think we'll look back in 6 months at these last 2 rate hikes in particular and we'll say, 'What on earth were they thinking?'"

Josh also faulted how the Fed has been "actually fueling the housing market" by buying mortgage bonds into a hot market.

"I don't even know what they could be looking at," Brown said.

Steve Weiss, back from Milken, relayed an old anecdote from Lehman Brothers, stating they were going to fire somebody, but Weiss' boss, "one of the guys that ran it," said "'Until you fire him, he's your guy.' Same thing here."

We weren't quite sure what that meant, other than maybe people will have to live with whatever the Fed does.

"The banks are in trouble," Weiss said. "But, the Fed didn't cause it. You can't blame the Fed for SVB's poor risk management."

Judge countered, "OK, lumping in SVB with the broader regional bank is specious I think, right."

Weiss said SIVB and FRC are "really sideshows."

"I think what the Fed's saying is, 'One problem at a time,'" Weiss said, adding the central bank is targeting inflation because "those (sic) destroy civilizations (snicker)."

Judge played a clip of Jeffrey Gundlach a day earlier on Closing Bell saying he's "turning more bearish." (Judge also played the same clip for Dubravko Lakos on Closing Bell.) Jenny Harrington pointed out Jeffrey is a "bond manager" and that bond managers "tend to skew bearish."

Jenny referred to "Stanley Drunkenmiller (sic)" while pointing out this is an environment of "massive, unbearable, overwhelming, uncertainty."

Josh Brown said the KRE is "about to make 3-year lows."

"We're gonna have a recession," Weiss bluntly stated, adding the question is how "deep" it will be.

Weiss said he's got a "shopping list," but he said, as he always does, that he'd still rather miss the first 10% up "instead of losing money and taking the next 20% down."

Weiss called AAPL "a place to hide."

Weiss tells Judge to apply for job as Federal Reserve bank examiner

We were ready in advance to write off Wednesday's (5/3) Halftime Report, basically because these pre-Fed episodes really are nothing but stale predictions that are useless by about 2 p.m. Eastern the same day.

But this time, Steve Weiss stirred the cauldron a bit with a curiously two-sided outlook for stocks.

Weiss said you really don't want to be long ... except into this meeting.

Weiss, once again from Milken in California, started off talking about "spending time" with CEOs and of course "couldn't find anybody" who's bullish.

Weiss said another 25 bps on Wednesday "doesn't really matter," rather it's the Fed's long-term approach. But then he uncorked this yes/no opinion on stocks and the Fed's mindset:

"You don't wanna be long up the kazoo stocks right now because they will get their way. Now, what I'd say is if there's one Fed meeting where I'd feel good about buying into it, it's this one ... rally for a few days, and then I would sell it."

The problem with the above is the first sentence. It's negated by the second sentence.

That said, we're going to give Weiss some benefit of the doubt here because nearly exactly 1 year ago, Weiss on Wednesday, May 4, 2022, for his Final Trade recommended buying SPY and QQQ right after the show ended and before the Fed Q&A, "and only stay there for the afternoon or through tomorrow morning," a trade that matched the market's reax to the Fed decision perfectly. (Scroll down to see this in early January in the Call of the Year report, or check out our archive from last May.)

Anyway, on Wednesday, May 3, 2023, Steve Liesman suggested a Fed pause was actually possible, but he also invoked the Sinatra lyric "one for the road" as a potential Fed move, prompting Judge to say "You never know that you've had too many until you've had too many."

Jim "Mr. Yeah, But" Lebenthal asserted that there's room for a "relief rally" in KRE.

Bryn Talkington said we've had a banking crisis that's been "duct-taped over" but there's still a "potential major issue" with regionals if the stocks keep falling.

Weiss then started to explain that there'd be an "embedded message" if the Fed doesn't hike that would imply the public doesn't "know what's going on."

Judge insisted "No no no," that the public wants the Fed to "see what we see" and that a pause would convey as much.

Weiss then said anyone who thinks they're a better "bank examiner" than the Fed should apply for the job, including Judge. Judge scoffed, "The regulator of the banks- The same regulator out in Silicon Valley, the head of the San Francisco Fed was so on the case that SVB blew up in our face."

Weiss suggested Judge prepare a "résumé" for that opening. (If that happens, WME should probably be notified.)

Judge said it's "misguided" to think the Fed is the "last word on everything." Weiss said, "You know what? They are the last word."

Joe Terranova asked Weiss if the Fed has "handled this well" and whether a regional bank rally would fail in a couple days, which is kinda what Weiss already said.

Weiss noted he said that already and then stirred up another frequent hornet's nest, adding, "That's why Jim's trade makes absolutely zero sense, being long and waiting for a relief rally."

Jim said "there's a little more to it than that."

"That's what you said," Weiss said.

Jim cited a "tug of war" for regionals between earnings and book value, which frankly wasn't the most convincing analysis.

But then Jim caught fire. He told Weiss, "I completely disagree" about the Fed being the "gospel," then cited 2018 and the recent "thinking about thinking about" or whatever it was and how it got backpedaled. ... "The idea this Fed knows what they're doing is stupid. It's a stupid idea," Jim told Weiss.

Weiss responded that if you don't believe they know what they're doing, "Then you definitely don't want to own stocks."

Weiss claimed that book value in SIVB was "illusory" before it blew up. But Jim pressed on Weiss' comment early in the show, that Weiss predicted a rally if there's a Fed pause. Weiss admitted he did but insisted he said he'd "fade the rally."

"You're in an echo chamber," Jim told Weiss.

"You don't even know what I'm gonna say Jim as usual and you won't understand it after I say it, but let me try anyway," Weiss continued.

Jim said, "I don't understand what you're saying because every breath you take, you change your viewpoint." (OK, that's not actually true. However, Weiss' short-term stock call on this program was a bit contradictory.)

Jim noted that Weiss said earlier that "It's a terrible time to be long up the kazoo and not 60 seconds later, you say, this is the one Fed meeting to buy into." Weiss said, "Jim Jim I don't know why you have so time- so challenging time with time frames."

What happened to Tom Lee’s
BEEF portfolio?

On Wednesday's (5/3) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova said Jay Powell must "acknowledge" that inflation Is "sticky" and that "we have a regional banking crisis that has not been contained."

Joe insisted the stock market is pricing in a "cut" in the next move and he wants to know if the Fed will "validate" that on Wednesday. Judge insisted Jay Powell isn't going to announce a cut Wednesday. (He didn't. This review was posted late night Wednesday.) But Joe said regardless, there were very quick pivots in 2018 and 2007.

Steve Liesman said there's a "chance" of a pause, for basically the same arguments people made a couple months ago.

Jim Lebenthal was back to repeat his commentary from Tuesday in which he said hiking is a mistake but he thinks they'll do it anyway.

Judge illustrated the differences between an "upside surprise" and a "downside shock." Jim said a hike would be a "terrible mistake."

Bryn Talkington compared Jay Powell to aggressive piloting in "Top Gun: Maverick."

Weiss is long JOET because it’s got stuff that Weiss wouldn’t buy

On Wednesday's (5/3) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss said he bought a "small position" in UBER, he wanted to "get involved in it." Weiss cited a "monopoly" and "more drivers" in the labor force because of layoffs. (This writer is long UBER.)

Jim Lebenthal bought more CVS. Bryn Talkington, who tends to tout energy and options, suggested a lot of reasons "energy catches a bid." Joe Terranova bluntly stated, "The market is too long energy."

Weiss said he owns LLY through the JOET. "He buys the stuff that, that I wouldn't, so it's good diversification as well," Weiss said.

Joe said LLY is "almost trading like a biotech."

‘Mr. Yeah, But’ (a/k/a a ‘balanced’ ‘outlier’)

Judge and Jim Lebenthal were both present on Tuesday's (5/2) Halftime Report, which could only mean ...

Stephanie Link opened the show saying "today was ugly" (even though it was only halfway over) and that "the hard landing is back in action."

Stephanie predicted "regulation like we haven't seen" in banking.

Joe Terranova said that among other things, there was a "dramatic technical reversal," and not in a good way, on Monday.

Judge then introduced Jim (seated at the end of the Post 9 set) as "Mr. Yeah, But" and wondered about Jim's "retort" to the opening commentary.

"I understand why you call me that. I'd like to think I'm a little bit more balanced," Jim began to say.

"I wouldn't say your commentary is necessarily what you would describe as 'balanced,' I mean, I think you're kind of an outlier on where you think the market's-" Judge stated.

"I'll tell you what, that I- that I will accept. That I will accept," Jim said.

"I think that's fair," Judge insisted.

"I am an outlier- I am an outlier, in terms- I still think I'm balanced, but I am an outlier, in terms of where- because I see the negatives, right, I'm not gonna disagree with what these guys said-" Jim continued.

"No but that's what I said, you're always 'Yeah, But'-" Judge added.

"OK let's move on from the characterization of me," Jim declared.

But Judge wasn't done. "Belski's smiling; I haven't even gotten to him yet. Go ahead. Go ahead. He thinks he's gonna get un- he thinks he's gonna be unscathed. Wait till I get to him. But go ahead," Judge told Jim.

Jim went on to say that the market is telling the Fed, "Watch out tomorrow," that it's "unwise" to raise 25 bps just as it was last time. Judge even noted that 59% in the CNBC Fed survey thinks the Fed is "making a mistake" but stated that it doesn't matter if the Fed doesn't agree.

Invoking a movie cliche, Judge correctly shot down Stephanie's implication that "long-term investors" can still like a tough market for the "opportunity," with Judge opining that you can be a longer-term investor "from here to, you know, eternity," but you're not buying if you think stocks are going 10% lower, you wouldn't buy stuff at the grocery store if you know it'll be "40% off" a week from now.

During Final Trades, Judge was calling Jim "Mr. Balance."

Judge claims, ‘I don’t talk negatively about anything’ (a/k/a Oct. 22 was a Saturday)

Judge on Tuesday's (5/2) Halftime Report introduced Brian Belski by saying that the last time Brian was on, Brian "took a shot" at Judge about being "too negative on the earnings picture" and that shortly after that appearance, Belski said in a note that his stock enthusiasm is "relatively tempered."

Belski on Tuesday said their conversation was "a bit heated last time" and explained it was his "belief" that Judge was "talking too negative about the earnings side of things."

Judge stopped Belski and stated, "I don't talk negatively about anything. I was pointing out where earnings are, where they've gone to, where expectations still are. The numbers are the numbers, if you wanna characterize them however you want-"

"The numbers are the numbers Scott, but again, according to the way we look at things," Belski stated, before citing a "diffusion index" (snicker) that showed earnings revisions did "bottom out 6 weeks ago."

Belski said he thinks the low on Oct. 22 is "the low for this bear market." That got us wondering what happened on Oct. 22, because we don't recall that specific date. We think Belski confused Oct. 22 with Oct. 12, which was the S&P closing price low (3,577.03); the intraday was Oct. 13 at 3,491.58.

Judge asked Belski if the Leafs are going to win the Stanley Cup. Belski didn't answer but pivoted to the Minnesota Twins.

Judge said Hindenburg Research delivered a "bombshell" regarding Carl Icahn's IEP. Judge went on to read the story to viewers, basically a shorthand version from cnbc.com, with no commentary. (Translation: Producers couldn't get Carl to dial in to the show.)

Joe Terranova cited the highlights of UBER's report and "excellent" call (this writer is long UBER) but said a lot of the momentum in the stock is based on capturing market share from LYFT. Joe said he's "happy to own" the name. Judge noted UBER's IPO price was $45.

Brad Gerstner staking out huge lead for Halftime Call of the Year

The star guest of Monday's (5/1) Halftime Report was Brad Gerstner, who Judge said just had his "best quarter ever."

Indeed. On Feb. 2 (that's Groundhog Day) (see way below down this page/archives), Gerstner gushed about the META earnings call with a type of euphoria not seen for the last 18 months. The stock had merely surged to $188 that day.

On Monday, Judge asked Brad if he feels "responsible" for sparking META's turnaround with his open letter to management last year.

"Not at all, Scott," Gerstner said, saying it was an "open secret" that Silicon Valley companies were "bloated" by zero interest rates.

Judge cited details from the Washington Post story on META and asked Brad if there's "any truth" to the accounts of a former employee who seems to think the old problems are still there, just with fewer employees. Brad said "change is hard" and not everyone's on board but he found the article "totally shameful" because it quoted "2 dozen anonymous sources" and an "anonymous former employee," and he said in Silicon Valley, there's "tremendous momentum" in this company.

Gerstner reiterated he found the article "shameful" by "disgruntled mainstream media."

Media reporting aside, Brad's never looked back with this name this year, and the gains in just 3 months even after that huge climb to $188 are so huge, this page is about ready to just declare Gerstner on META the Call of the Year for 2023.

But who knows.

Brad on Monday began by referring back to a "fall of '21" interview with Judge in which Brad said he noted an "asset price bubble" and predicted 10-year rate normalization to January 2020 levels that would constrain tech multiples "by about 30%."

Gerstner said what did surprise him was the "parabolic rate hikes of 2022." But he thinks "regime change is behind us" in which rates are no longer going higher, which he said is good for tech stocks.

Gerstner acknowledged selling GOOGL because of a "slowing of product velocity." Brad told Judge "I didn't speak to Sundar" before selling GOOGL.

Brad talked up how great AI is and even mentioned a "Cambrian moment."

Joe Terranova bought META for the JOET. Late in the program, Joe felt compelled to explain why the JOET wasn't buying META at $112. Joe said the strategy waits for the "prevailing weakness to dissipate." Joe said at 240, META is at the "precipice of a budding trend."

Joe, Jenny tapped as Post 9 buffers between Judge, Jim

Jenny Harrington on Monday's (5/1) Halftime Report said she's "feeling OK right now" and was reassured by discovering that SIVB and FRC were "idiosyncratic" situations.

Jim Lebenthal admitted, "Everybody kinda knows what I'm gonna say."

Steve Weiss, who always attends the Milken conference, spoke amid choppy audio and said "you've had earnings cuts over the last 5 quarters." Judge assured viewers that the CNBC crew was aware of audio problems.

Judge asked Joe Terranova about selling PXD. Joe said the JOET formula asks "What" but not "Why" and doesn't recognize that PXD is a "crown jewel" of an M&A target. Joe said he sold it personally on Friday.

The JOET got rid of ADM and MOS; Joe said the "agriculture bull cycle has been neutralized." The JOET and Joe also dumped FCX; Joe cited decelerating revenue growth. Jenny said that Joe was making a negative fundamental case for FCX in the "very near term" while Gilman Hill has "enormous patience," and Jenny actually claimed she's looking "10 years out" on FCX.

50% upside in a cruise line

Why the Friday's (4/28) Halftime Report crew spent so much time talking about Apple 6 days before it reports, we have no clue.

Jim Lebenthal admitted he's "eating crow" on Rob Sechan's Stock Summit pick of META that Jim "totally panned."

Jim noted Andy Jassy "didn't say the consumer's dying."

Kevin Simpson said writing covered calls is a great way to hedge a position that's had a "meteoric run," and MSFT qualifies for that. He said he wrote 320 MSFT calls. Simpson said he's buying more HD and will add more if there's pullbacks over the summer.

Steve Liesman said a Fed report found SIVB was a "textbook case of mismanagement," for those who thought it was a tightly run ship.

Rob Sechan sold BX but added JPM.

Jim predicted energy prices are going higher, in part because of future SPR purchases and "China demand picking up" and a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy. Jim mentioned OPEC cuts, but guest host Frank Holland noted oil was $80 after the cut and now it's $75.

Matt Boss said there's a consumer trend back to "experiential." He's actually looking for nearly 50% upside in RCL and it "could be a double." Boss said "the consumer is holding" and there will be "resilience" in earnings, and he likes TJX and BURL and ROST.

Rob Sechan's Final Trade was AVGO and mentioned AI.

Josh suggests ‘big guy’ will return to helm of AMZN if stock doesn’t get moving

On Thursday's (4/27) Halftime Report (the NFL Draft Version, except there was zero mention of the NFL Draft), Judge said META mentioned AI "57 times" on its call.

Judge then suggested AMZN may try to join the "hype parade" of AI. Jason Snipe predicts a "decent" AMZN print.

Addressing how the Amazon CEO is doing, Josh Brown bluntly stated, "The big guy always comes back. ... So he's gonna come back if the stock doesn't perform. ... I just looked at his outfit from Coachella."

Steve Weiss explained that at Amazon, "all profitability, all spending, comes from the cloud."

Jason Snipe, whose stock endorsements tend to have about as much enthusiasm as Al Michaels' call of the Jaguars-Chargers playoff thriller, said he still likes ABBV. Judge said "Botox is not a needle-mover." Judge said commercials for all 3 of AbbVie's top products air "nonstop" on television; "they're spending a lot on advertising."

Halftime skips the NFL Draft; Weiss doesn’t even mention the Carolina Panthers

Judge returned to the Halftime helm Thursday (4/27) (it proved to be a short-lived return as he was off again Friday) (we can't fathom why he wasn't talking about the NFL Draft nor evidently instructing his colleagues to do so as guest hosts; just because NBCUni doesn't have the draft, it does actually broadcast NFL football) and immediately ran into prompter trouble, stating "in just a few hours" without realizing it was followed by "from now" in the same sentence.

Josh Brown immediately declared META is pulling off "one of the biggest turnarounds of all time."

Judge got Josh to concede Stephanie Link was right a long time ago (so far back, META was still known as FB) about selling GOOGL to buy META, which Brown apparently disagreed with at the time. Brown offered his congrats.

Liz Young said she expects some "froth" to come out of tech names but it's "very possible" that the Nasdaq doesn't sink to a "huge bear market." (Whew. If it wasn't possible at all, the market would be in serious trouble.) (#let'schecktheVIX)

Liz said she said a few weeks ago to sell semiconductors, and she stands by that "absolutely." Later she said that call was made April 3.

Josh Brown said AI will revolutionize our lives over the next 5-10 years, and not even the skeptics will deny that, but the market may not like it so much, a lot of people will get "burned" in speculative stocks.

Jason Snipe said energy still has "some tailwinds." Josh said to be "careful" about trying to draw a "straight line" between GDP and the price of oil. While talking about the IEO and how he thinks it will do well, Brown got some echo feedback and looked up to the ceiling. Judge said "I don't know what that was" but that Brown "sounded good twice."

Jason called TGT "solid."

Steve Weiss predicted BG goes through the upper end of its 90-100 range. Liz Young said gold serves a "preservation cause."

Josh suggests owning a bank CD is preferable to GM shares

On Tuesday's (4/25) Halftime Report, Jason Snipe predicted there's "opportunity" for PYPL because it will benefit from "e-commerce growth coming back online," though he concedes it's trading like a "value stock."

Josh Brown wasn't nearly so optimistic, explaining that you can sum up the PYPL multiple in 2 words: "Apple. Pay." And "Google Wallet also." Brown said it'll be a "really tough fight back" for PYPL; "I don't see how these guys win."

In other sectors, Josh said SHAK will be "fine," he also suggested DPZ for a rebound based partly on the CEO's share purchase. (Josh also explained the reasons for insider buying vs. insider selling, the boilerplate explanation we haven't heard on the show for a long time actually.)

Josh said owning GM is "like watching paint dry" and "really a frustrating situation" as the company is doing "all of the right things" but has a depressed multiple. "You might as well own a CD at a bank," Brown said.

Dom Chu said the FRC earnings call "lasted just 12 minutes and there was no Q&A before it just pretty much ended."

Weiss still won’t say who Tepper’s gonna draft (even though the whole world knows)

Monday's (4/24) Halftime Report, guest-hosted by Courtney Reagan, sure didn't make nearly as many fireworks as CNBC's Middle East correspondent did (see home page).

Joe Terranova opined that we're "4 years into Disney streaming" and that it was "gonna be the source of growth for this company." But Joe said it's actually been a "source of strain."

(We're sure some folks somewhere were claiming Disney+ would be a "source of growth," but we doubt it was Iger, who resisted streaming for a long time because he knows it's not a great business and that Netflix is a one-off that somehow works and may not work forever and that DIS only did it because Wall Street was demanding it and so many other streamers were starting that Disney didn't want to be the 18th service to launch and that it would be a great time to exit and let someone else (Bob Chapek) deal with this likely unwinnable situation and take the fallout. And here we are.)

Steve Weiss suggested BAC or GS rather than regional banks, stating that it's a "gamble" to buy regionals.

Bryn Talkington mentioned FRC and PACW and said if those banks can "like limp along," then there's a "tremendous opportunity for a short squeeze in a lot of these names." Weiss said "be careful about the short interest" in regional banks because "some of that's a hedge" for hedge funds buying the bonds.

News flash: Judge says mystery texter is finding it hard to make money in this flat market

We're kinda surprised to be saying it, but nowadays, just about any episode of the Halftime Report that doesn't include Jim Lebenthal tends to be rather sleepy.

(Note: That does NOT mean we're saying Jim should be on all the time; he already is, and frankly, we've cited that as something that needs to be reined in.)

Judge on Friday (4/21) said Michael Hartnett is suggesting, and Judge wonders too, if the last rate hike is a "sell the news event."

Jenny Harrington said the market could sell off ahead of that hike, so "we need to stay flexible."

But Jenny said "it just doesn't feel great."

Judge said he's "traded texts" with "somebody we all know" who thinks it's "hard to make money in this market."

Steve Weiss said he's in the camp of inflation remaining "stubborn" and that the Fed will "have to keep going." Actually, the "stubborn" may be true, but we doubt they'll "keep going," rather it'll just take time for a cut.

Jason Snipe said "the bias is downward."

Weiss could deliver a big scoop (still), tell us who Tepper’s going to draft No. 1

On Friday's (4/21) Halftime Report, Jenny Harrington seemed to indicate a couple times that the notion of being conflicted about selling a winner is a new thing.

Jenny said she trimmed META again in the morning partly because it's had a great run. Jenny admitted it's hard picking a side between the outlooks of Jim Lebenthal (who wasn't on the show) and Steve Weiss (who was) and said it's difficult being cautious while doing stock-picking (which Jenny insists is the key to success) and trying to do "both things at once."

Judge questioned Jenny's notion that if mega tech is slowing, there are, in Jenny's words, "490 other companies" to choose from. Judge told Jenny that "individual stock-picking is not going to save the day."

Jason Snipe said this mega tech trade is "due for a slowdown."

Judge asked Steve Weiss why Weiss still owns GOOGL if Weiss thinks the mega tech trade is over. Weiss said, "What if I'm wrong?" (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Jenny said she wants to invest in UBER, not LYFT. Jenny said, matching the conversation above, that UBER is about stock picking, and that "coasting along with the rising tide" is "so over." (This writer is long UBER.)

Weiss said if he were buying stocks now, UBER would be "near the top of the list." Weiss said of LYFT, "When they say we've gotta get rid of the founders, you know there's something that's really wrong there."

Jenny admitted she sold PANW for the same reasons of trimming META, "trying to have our cake and eating it too."

Jason Snipe backed PANW; Weiss asked Jason about the multiple. Jason conceded it's lofty but said the story is "all about the fundamental tailwinds."

Weiss claimed he has a "propensity" to be optimistic.

Stocks for ‘forever’

Jason Snipe on Friday's (4/21) Halftime Report praised a viewer's buy of COST.

Jenny Harrington gave herself a "D" for buying KSS at 30; she added at 24. Jenny said what matters is not how many shares the viewer owns but the percentage of portfolio. (We get that long-standing argument, but the stock doesn't care what other stocks/money is in this viewer's portfolio.)

Jenny said she thinks XPO has a "re-rating story going on."

Judge badgered Steve Weiss as to why Weiss owns GXO but not XPO. Weiss kept saying "freight" for the latter and indicated it's different kinds of companies.

Jason Snipe thinks CVS is "bottoming." Jason and Weiss both like UNH. Weiss said he bought UNH and HUM.

Jenny said FCX has outperformed copper and the stock "got a bit ahead of itself." Still, she said it'll be in her portfolio "forever." (Dennis Gartman might say to that, "You could wake up one morning and find out a mine got flooded ...")

Bryn: TSLA high for year is in

Judge on Thursday's (4/20) Halftime Report asked Jim Lebenthal about the "auto price war."

Jim said "there's a price war in EVs" but that demand remains "very, very high" for gas-powered cars.

Bryn Talkington said she's surprised that "these analysts were surprised" by TSLA's price cut. Bryn said the EV market in the U.S. is still pretty small and that China is "60%" of the global EV market.

Bryn predicted 212 will be the "high of the year" for TSLA. (That can't literally happen because it reached $214 on Feb. 15.) Bryn acknowledged that those April 150 TSLA calls that she got $10 for will be called away on Friday.

Mike Francesa in September 2017 was the celebrity Albemarle fan who credited Josh for getting him into the stock

Bryn Talkington on Thursday's (4/20) Halftime Report actually gave a viewer a B for owning ALB at 225. (Tip: Stocks don't care what viewers' cost basis is.)

Judge asked Josh Brown about his ownership/advocacy of ALB from years ago. Brown said he owned it "probably 6 years ago" (we think 7, maybe a little more) and was "dead right on it" but it "didn't work out in the first 6 months" and "everywhere I went," people asked him about the stock, "steakhouses, airports."

He did prove to be "dead right" on that name, but his timeline maybe isn't so accurate. The stock had a great 2016 and 2017, a terrible 2018 and 2019, a great 2020 and 2021, and some enormous swings in either direction in 2022 and 2023.

Amy Raskin draws the assignment of Post 9 Buffer between Judge and Jim

Shortly into Thursday's (4/20) Halftime Report, Judge and Jim Lebenthal started up again.

Turning to Jim, Judge quoted Mike Santoli as saying, "There's really no denying the soft landing scenario is looking a little less likely" (as though that would convince Jim).

Jim said, "When is the future now?" Jim said he thinks the landing is "right now."

Judge decreed that Jim is saying that for the economy, "as bad as it's going to get is right now. You just said that."

Jim said he's saying that's a "supposition," then said he won't "wimp out" on this subject: "OK, yeah, that is what I'm saying. ... I think we're getting the soft landing right now."

Amy Raskin predicted the economy will "continue to weaken." But Amy said the Citigroup surprise index was "OK" or even "relatively good," and she predicted inflation keeps coming down, which will keep the market "around these levels" in an "OK environment."

Judge picked up where he left off with Jim, stating, "I'm surprised Jim that you would make a declaration that this is the worst it's gonna get, when we know that the economic data is undeniably getting weaker."

"That's not true," Jim said. "And she just said the Citigroup and surprise index. You gotta take it in its totality. The Citigroup surprise index, which measures the totality of, of economic surprises, has been moving up."

"So the economy is getting stronger. It's not getting weaker. Is that what you're saying? Is that what you're arguing?" Judge asked.

"Vs. expectations," Jim started to say.

"You get like ISM and PMI services from a couple weeks back, weak. Jobless claims-" Judge said.

"Let me- let me be clear about something-" Jim cut in.

"Let me be finished before you do that," Judge continued. "Um, jobless claims are becoming more elevated. I mean, there are clear signs that the economy is weakening and that the labor market may actually be starting to weaken as well."

"Yeah- It's- It's- The economy is going to weaken a little bit," Jim said. "But the recession, I don't agree that the recession is the base-case probability."

Jim even said that in 2019 we had "signing bonuses for people to start working at McDonald's."

Jim added that for all the recession fears, "It just isn't here."

We're going to give Jim the nod in this exchange. While Judge is correct that the rosy outlook Jim has been suggesting for more than a year has not come to fruition based on numerous stats, it's also true that Judge in all these exchanges has not made a strong enough case that the economy — the current real one, not the maybe one in 6 months — is actually poor.

Much later in the show, however Judge got the upper hand. Jim said defense spending is going to stay robust and the Jefferies RTX downgrade really means "hold the stock."

Judge said RTX is up 2% year to date, and even though defense spending is "not going away," it doesn't mean "these stocks are going straight up to the right," which was one of the best observations of the day.

Jim said that's "absolutely a fair point" and that "another way of saying what you're saying is it could be priced into the stock already." But Jim said he doesn't think RTX is going below 95.

Jim said Judge's "memory is like an elephant."

Josh Brown said the ITA is back to the "breakout level" of February 2020 and he thinks it's "goin' through."

Jim to Josh: Get ‘real’

As if contending with Judge weren't enough, Jim Lebenthal on Thursday's (4/20) Halftime Report got to spar with Josh Brown.

And, frankly, Jim seemed to get the upper hand in each instance.

Judge cited a "tremendous lag effect" (snicker) (been hearing that for a while) and questioned if there's not going to be "much of an impact" from the Fed's hikes. Jim said there "should be some impact," but GDP is still 2.5%.

Josh Brown curiously asserted that the GDP number is "not growth" but an "illusion from higher prices paid" and, like Tom Cruise and Demi Moore in "A Few Good Men" while Kevin Bacon cross-examined Private Downey, we did kinda wonder, "Where's he going with this?"

Brown explained, "Jim, if I sell you something for $10 this year. And then next year I charge you $12, is that 20% economic growth?"

"Keep going, Josh," Jim said matter of factly.

"No, that's what I'm asking, a serious question-" Josh said.

"We're talking about real GDP. I don't understand why you're talking in nominal terms," Jim said.

"What I'm suggesting is, are we talking about growth in terms of unit or unit price?" (That seemed like kind of a strange question/follow-up.)

"Who cares. Who cares," Jim said, which wasn't the greatest response.

"Well, who cares- who cares- who cares- is that- who cares is that-" Josh said.

"GDP is the baseline of what we're all supposed to look at. It takes out inflation. It takes out units," Jim said.

"I understand but you know what doesn't? But you know what doesn't? You know what doesn't? You know what doesn't take, take those out? Same-store sales growth, for example. Uh, revenue for S&P 500 companies does not adjust for those things. So, yes, you nominally do have GDP growth-" said Brown, and by that point, we were not just confused, but lost.

"And real. And real," Jim said.

"Nobody that you talk to- Nobody that you talk to- Nobody that you talk to in the real economy- Nobody that you talk to feels as though there's economic growth right now," Brown insisted, which is generally true, except "Nobody" sounds more unanimous than it actually is.

"Talk to the airlines. They reported today," Jim responded. "Talk to GPC. They reported last- excuse me, this morning. Talk to Union Pacific. You know this idea that everything is falling off a cliff just is not accurate to the facts."

"I didn't say that. Why does it have to be one or the other. ... It's not falling off a cliff, it's slowing," Josh said.

"You said, you said, talk to, your words were 'talk to anyone in the economy' ... I'm just responding to your words," Jim said, a valid point.

"Higher prices. Why is this complicated?" Brown said.

"You tell me why it's complicated for you to get the word 'real' into your head," Jim said.

"I have the word 'real' ... we can't invest in GDP," Brown said. That was a fair, and stronger, point than he originally made.

Brown said companies may be "overly cautious" but are managing what is "obviously" an economy with "cooling" demand.

Actually, while Jim made a stronger point in this conversation, Brown handled this debate much better than some of his previous ones.

Suddenly in a bit of an about-face, Judge "All the indicators say the economy's slowing" Wapner said the DHR CEO is seeing an "encouraging start" to spring and that housing stocks aren't telling a bad story.

Josh wasn't impressed. "There is no supply" in the housing market," Brown explained.

Jim could’ve asked Judge how Judge reconciles the Vix with his ‘undeniably’-getting-weaker economy

Josh Brown, going the beard route on Thursday's (4/20) Halftime Report, said there's a "much better overall tone" in the market compared with last year.

Bryn Talkington called regional banks "a really good tell." Bryn said her "base case" is that the Fed will "overtighten" despite the fact "inflation's coming down."

Bryn said prospects of a slowing economy will remain a "headwind" this year for energy stocks.

Jim Lebenthal said RIG is getting "higher and higher day rates." Jim said Mark Fisher's 65-85 oil range prediction is correct.

Josh Brown fairly subtly had a great punch line, calling OPEC+ "my favorite streaming service."

Judge said "Just about everybody on the show but Jim owns Nvidia." Josh Brown said he's looking for "new highs, not rollovers" in the semi space.

Amy Raskin trimmed NVDA and LVMHF. Judge said the S&P was "not moving too much on the Mester headlines (snicker)."

‘You say one bad thing about Apple and Microsoft, and you get hate mail’

Judge on Wednesday's (4/19) Halftime Report told Liz Young, scorching in red, that it's "unbelievable" that the Vix is 16½.

Liz said there is "some complacency," though she's not accusing people of being "complacent," but if there is a drawdown, it would "surprise no one."

Joe Terranova said there's a "tremendous amount of Fed-speak" and we'll hear a "reiteration I believe of a very hawkish positioning."

Sarat Sethi said he had to trim MSFT because its position had gotten "too big" and he won't carry a 5% position in any stock. Sarat complained that "everybody loves the stock," and "you say one bad thing about Apple and Microsoft, and you get hate mail." (Editor's note: By "hate mail," Sarat probably means tweets.)

Kari Firestone, who stunned in leather, took issue with Sarat's assertion that small caps have "rolled over"; Kari said "they didn't roll from anywhere," rather, they've "sunk for a long time now."

Liz asked herself a question (uh oh) (Judge Alert) about TSLA. "Why do they have to cut prices? They have to cut prices because demand isn't there," Liz explained. Asked & answered.

Sarat said he "took some money off the table" in EA.

Kari Firestone said she thinks PYPL is changing, but the market doesn't seem to be "paying attention."

Judge normally asks the questions, but Josh had a better one than what Judge asked about capital markets (a/k/a this one’s on Lloyd, not David)

Tuesday's (4/18) Halftime Report included an interesting debate over the performance of an elite Wall Street executive.

Stephanie Link said GS' report was a "hot mess." Jim Lebenthal agreed "it was a hot mess," but he's "sticking with" the stock.

Josh Brown then asked Jim a great question: Whether "the guy that made that disastrous bet" to dabble in consumer banking "should still be at the head of Goldman Sachs."

Jim didn't answer the question but said "Your point is very well made" and said "I have a question about Mr. Solomon" (uh oh ... Jim's asking questions too ... or perhaps just simply stating a fact ... we know how much Judge likes it when Jim asks the questions).

Stephanie Link asserted that David Solomon "was not part of Marcus. That was Blankfein." Jim said, "I get your point but no, I'm sorry, he did grow it," though "I will give him credit for having changed course."

‘Great time for a 60/40’

Josh Brown on Tuesday's (4/18) Halftime Report very eloquently summarized the NVDA story.

"In every era, every generation Judge, there's gonna be that 1 stock that just defies, uh, the fundamental research and traditional valuation metrics and it doesn't go on forever, but it could go on for years and years, and Nvidia is becoming that stock, and it's driving people that aren't in it absolutely nuts," Brown said.

Brown added that he's in NVDA with an "absurdly low" or "gangster" cost basis and says he would "not be running out and chasing on a day like today," because you can count on "huge drawdowns" at times in this name.

We couldn't agree more. A lot of people get in and out of this name. (This writer has no position in NVDA.) It doesn't seem as reliable of a juggernaut, perhaps, as AAPL because of those drawdowns Brown mentioned, but when you're on the upside, it's a great feeling.

In one of the day's biggest stories, Judge noted that BlackRock is "ditching" the 60/40 portfolio.

Josh Brown said it's actually "a great time for a 60/40 portfolio," at least for the next 5-10 years.

Stephanie Link questioned why there has to be this "declaration" because "60/40 isn't for everyone." Judge said "the sales pitch on 60/40 forever WAS that it was for everyone." Brown said, "No, no, no, no no, younger people should not be in a 60/40."

Meanwhile, Josh pointed to strength in defense stocks and said it's a "completely new world," although it's really not.

Jason Snipe noted energy was one of his Stock Summit picks, and he thinks the "supply/demand mismatch" is still a story.

Jason Snipe owns NFLX and said he's "a little nervous" about earnings but thinks they'll be "solid."

Joe insists to Judge that recession is priced into the market

On Monday's (4/17) mostly sleepy Halftime Report, Joe Terranova said the stock market has priced in a "very ominous outlook."

But Judge argued the market hasn't even priced in a recession.

Joe insisted it has, claiming that's what he said 4 months ago on Closing Bell (which doesn't refute Judge's argument, but whatever). (If it was 4 months ago, he probably meant "Closing Bell Overtime.")

Steve Weiss told Joe that "rolling recession" is "kind of a strange term."

Jenny Harrington told Judge she thinks $220 earnings is the "trough."

Nothing for a week on Torsten Sløk’s commercial realty commentary (while outrage over Congress’ stock trading seems to have quickly subsided)

Steve Weiss on Monday's (4/17) Halftime Report said he doesn't know why he doesn't own UBER. Jenny Harrington sought to provide the answer.

Jenny said higher interest rates actually help UBER because they hurt the competition. Jenny also noted UBER was one of her Stock Summit picks.

Weiss agreed UBER is "basically a monopoly business" and said he doesn't know why he doesn't own the stock.

Jenny suggested Weiss hasn't bought UBER because he's "constantly waiting for the market bottom." Weiss said that's not the reason; he didn't buy it because "they were losing money."

Joe Terranova referred to "deliverty" (sic).

Oh, for the days when stock investing is easy

Jenny Harrington on Monday's (4/17) Halftime Report said you can keep a "core position" in META, but the "home run is over," adding Stephanie Link's 2nd-favorite term, "for sure."

Steve Weiss said META is "worth holding onto" in case there's a TikTok ban.

Meanwhile, Joe Terranova said he's "not excited about the setup for this week."

Jenny said the "conflicting news" about the economy is making stock investing "really hard."

Weiss said earnings never come in below expectations.

Joe had a coughing fit discussing EQT. Joe said he bought more IBB in the morning, though he was "conflicted" about maybe buying the XBI.

Weiss said the selling in MRNA is "completely misplaced." (This writer is long MRNA.)

Jenny likes REGN for its "huuuuuuuge pipeline."

Judge in 3rd minute mentions ‘the Lebenthals of the world’ who talk about ‘onshoring’ (even though Jim wasn’t on the show)

Josh Brown opened Friday's (4/14) Halftime Report by telling Judge, "I'm kinda looking at, um, glass half-empty as actually glass half-full."

Stephanie Link said "we're in the 8th inning ... or maybe even 9th" of higher interest rates. Judge wondered whether we may get "way extra innings."

Jason Snipe mentioned the "surprise cut" by OPEC and predicted another 25 basis points in May.

Bill Baruch, who has emerged as energetic (but too infrequent) voice for trading, remains "fairly optimistic." Bill stated that "airfares have continued to elevate," curious given how Josh Brown shredded that sector just a day ago.

He did say ‘number of,’ not ‘plenty of,’ although they kind of imply the same thing in this instance

"Nobody's calling for an earnings collapse," declared Josh Brown on Friday's (4/14) Halftime Report.

But Judge said there are "a number of people, as a matter of fact" calling for "another 10% decline in earnings."

Brown twice tried to cut in that "consensus is -7%" while Judge suggested $195 as a possibility, then Judge said "Who cares what consensus is. Consensus is often wrong."

Brown, who at least didn't ask himself a question, told Judge, "When you say there are plenty of people," consensus is taking in the whole range and consensus is not calling for "anything drastically negative on the earnings front."

Brown knocked those who say "Citigroup's cheaper" than JPM. "Well, have fun with Citigroup!"

Jason Snipe made the case for PNC. Bill Baruch said, "We really like Morgan Stanley."

Snipe said guidance from UNH was "a little bit light going forward." Bill Baruch said he could be adding to UNH on the selloff. (On Closing Bell, Kevin Simpson said he hasn't sold his UNH position "in over a decade." He said it's "understandable" to be seeing some "sell the news.")

Judge asked Stephanie Link about BA, which is kind of like asking Jim Lebenthal about CLF. Link said the Friday selloff is "way overdone." Josh Brown suggested buying BA on Friday's dip. Bill Baruch said he'd buy at 180.

Judge rolls his eyes while trying to read an awkward description during Grade My Trade, one of show’s funniest moments in months

Bill Baruch on Friday's (4/14) Halftime Report said he trimmed NVDA "on strength."

Josh Brown agreed NVDA has "definitely far outrun" any change in fundamentals. Jason Snipe said tech already has made "great annual returns" this year and indicated it's not "prudent" to take new positions at this time.

Stephanie Link said she bought FCX on Tuesday and it's already up 7%. Josh Brown owns NEM and said he thinks "gold is on the verge of a fairly substantial breakout." Bill Baruch is "very bullish on copper."

Jason Snipe said his "real focus" from NFLX's report will be on password-sharing.

Judge struggled to read viewer Allen's Grade My Trade question about GE, having trouble with "due" (not "do" as Judge first stated). We could add again that stocks don't care what viewers' cost basises (if that's the correct plural) are, but whatever.

On Friday's (4/14) Closing Bell, Mike Mayo said he still sees 25-30% upside in JPM.

Jim is still asking himself questions

No sooner had this page basically spent half a day compiling Judge's Wednesday Halftime Report interaction with Jim Lebenthal (see below) than we realized, "Oh. Jim's on the show again Thursday (4/13)."

To cover any ground they didn't get to on Wednesday, apparently.

In the 6th minute, Jim affirmed he's still in the "soft landing camp" and that the market will embrace cyclicals and value.

So in 24 hours, nothing's changed.

Things did not get chippy on Thursday, even if there was potential during an airlines chat. Jim said Delta's Q2 guidance was "extraordinarily positive." Jim then asked himself a question (uh oh) (see below), "So then why is the stock down?" He thinks that "people just don't believe it's going to last."

Judge wondered if we're at "peak travel" and the numbers will never be as good as they were post-pandemic. Jim said that's an "excellent question" and that consumer travel can't jump like it did last year. But Jim said business is already back and international is coming back.

"Airlines are only ever a trade," said Josh Brown, who participated in the show remotely. "Agreed," said Rob Sechan, who was on location at Post 9 (and noticeably seated between Judge and Jim so Judge and Jim didn't have to be right next to each other).

Brown said airline stocks "all look terrible." Judge asked Jim, "How do you respond to that?" Jim said Brown is "absolutely right" that these are "trades."

Judge told Jim, "These have not been trades for you. These have been investments for you."

"I'm not married to these stocks, believe me," Jim said.

Judge said, "You sound like you're about to have your 50th anniversary party, what do you mean you're not married to 'em."

"Slow down, hotshot," Jim said, saying the chatter reminds him of what people were saying about energy stocks in autumn 2021. Rob Sechan brought up oil prices.

Judge claims not to know show ‘superfan’ who works at NYC restaurant and somehow manages to get his question read on-air

Josh Brown on Thursday's (4/13) Halftime Report touted one word for this market: "I mock it a little bit, but positioning (Zzzzzzz) is the answer."

Rob Sechan revealed there's "huge tension in our own company" about market outlook.

Josh said it's "fairly unprecedented to have three-quarters of a year with falling CPI on a year-over-year basis."

Bryn Talkington, whose video feed was a bit clearer Thursday, asserted, "Chipotle and Shake Shack are consumer discretionary. McDonald's is a staple."

Josh Brown said SHAK has "gotten very cheap relative to where it was even just a couple of years ago."

We thought we might get through the show without having to hear, again, about Jim's 4 Horsemen stocks (or whatever they should be called), which are probably CLF, PARA, GM and either ALK or QCOM ... but no. Judge had to ask Jim about CLF in "Grade My Trade."

Asked to opine on a TSLA trade by "Mo," Bryn Talkington said she'd sell 3-6-month out of the money options in TSLA with 15% upside. Rob Sechan said he knows Mo, that Mo is a "superfan" of the show who works at a "local restaurant" and that Judge should go see Mo.

Judge’s obvious feud with Jim is wearing out this page

Oh boy; where to start.

This page, basically alone among financial media, has been reporting for months about Judge's persistent hectoring of Jim Lebenthal's typically sunny outlook on episodes of CNBC's Halftime Report.

Wednesday (4/12) — though no one lost their temper — it basically boiled over and this page realized early on that we'd have to type up about 2,000 words of quotes; not even enough time left to watch Closing Bell or catch up with Sully's 7 p.m. offering.

Near the top of the show, Jim said he continues to urge that the Fed do nothing. Jim said the reason he doesn't think the Fed should hike again is because since June's inflation numbers, "We've been running at an annualized pace of 3.7% on the CPI headline."

Jim said the Fed should be trying to avoid a "mistake," which would be a 25-point hike that would be "putting a heckuva lot of pressure on the banking system."

Honestly, that sounded innocuous enough and not unlike Jeremy Siegel and certain others who appear on this program (including Siegel later Wednesday).

But it wasn't innocuous to Judge, who said Jim keeps focusing "on the headline" while the Fed is focused on the "core," prompting Jim to cut in and say the Fed is "wrong" to do that before asking Judge to forgive him for cutting Judge off and, in an interesting reveal, stating, "I don't like it when you interrupt me and I apologize."

Jim said the Fed should "accept victory" and if not, will get "obliterated by Congress" (snicker) (wonder if casino books have odds on that) if it continues to miss the forest through the trees.

Steve Weiss said about Jim's Fed viewpoint, "It doesn't matter whether you think they're doing the wrong thing," rather, "They look at core," so that's how you have to assess the market, and "5.6% in core is not victory."

Jim says constant talk on the show about ‘a recession’s coming’ is stifling economically sensitive stocks

Part 2 of Judge's Day With Jim on Wednesday's (4/12) Halftime took place around the halfway mark.

Coming back from the break, Judge was reading the prompter and finished a phrase with "Halftime" before realizing he was also supposed to say "Report," which he included a moment later. (That hiccup had nothing to do with Jim Lebenthal.) (But it does give this page a chance to say the technical challenge in any live TV program is significant, and that hosts/panelists/producers don't get enough credit for something like 99% batting averages (OK we know batting averages aren't typically reported in percentage terms).

Anyway, Judge went on to say Warren Buffett told Becky Quick early in the day, "I would not sell Bank of America."

Steve Weiss acknowledged he sold some BAC a few months but "bought it back" when it was "flushed with SVB."

Weiss said Brian Moynihan, Jamie Dimon and David Solomon have been "battle tested repeatedly and have come through with flying colors."

Then Judge asked Jim why he owns BRK, C, GS and JPM but not BAC. (Uh oh.)

Jim said "I have a lot of financial exposure to begin with," and ... (uh oh) ... "The question that I ask myself is why do I ask- I own Citigroup." Jim said Jane Fraser doesn't get enough credit but that there's a catalyst that "needs to happen very soon," which is the Banamex sale.

"Did you answer my question about Bank of America or no? Feel like you, uh, you punted right over to Citigroup," Judge wondered.

"It's my way of saying I'm neutral on Bank of America. I don't own it, I don't hate it," Jim responded.

"All right. I mean, you said, 'I ask myself the question,' I was like, 'OK, well that's a good thing you don't ask yourself the question; I ask you the question,' but you didn't answer my question, so I was gonna come back at ya," as Jim chuckled and Joe Terranova and Steve Weiss appeared to also.

For a moment, Judge turned his attention to Joe, who asserted, "The economy is, in select industries, in a recession."

Joe said he will "respectfully disagree" with Yellen and Mary Daly, "the economy is, in select industries, in a recession."

"Yeah that's not how they look at it though ... I hear you, I hear you," Judge started to cut in.

"OK so you want a universal definition of a 'recession,'" Joe suggested though not actually offering one, instead asserting there's a "valuation recession" and "earnings recession" and that technology is "in a recession."

"We're there," Joe concluded.

"Jim doesn't think we are," Judge offered, swinging open the door to his favorite target.

"I'm not sure this is the fight I want to have," Jim said warily. "I mean I'll do it because I've gotta, you brought me into it," but what Jim would "point out as a counter" is that there's "no recession in steel" or industrials. "Your point I think you're making is, we're having what Ed Yardeni calls a 'rolling recession,'" including housing and technology.

Judge, who clearly planned to sic airline forecasts on Jim, told Jim that DAL reports Thursday morning and wondered if Jim is "concerned" about AAL's report. Jim said he's not and that AAL "actually increased its guidance from a month ago," though Jim said estimates "got ahead of themselves" after last year's "gangbusters" domestic travel.

"Here's what I don't understand, all right," Judge sighed. "And I know I ask you this as it relates to, when you talk about how strong the auto industry is, how everybody needs a car, blah blah blah. OK, over the last year, American Airlines is down 24½% while you almost every time you're on (sic not exactly true) talk about the strength of the airlines, and uh, TSA numbers, and all that on and on and on. ... If I was to pull up a 1-year let's say of General Motors, or Ford, they don't tell a great story. So there's a difference between what you think you see in terms of economic strength in various businesses and what the translation is in various stocks."

"That's an absolutely fair point. I will agree with you," Jim said, adding he's "surprised" these stocks haven't been better.

"Why haven't they if things have been so good?" Judge demanded, escalating the dialogue.

"Because everybody is so concerned listening to the conversation we're having about a recession, we've been doing this for a year, a recession's coming, a recession's coming," Jim said. But, "Atlanta Fed GDP is still at 2.2%, we're still creating hundred thou- hundreds of thousands of jobs a month. The multiple on Delta has gone- the forward multiple has gone from 8 to 5, OK. That's not- that's not the business getting worse, that's the sentiment on the stock getting worse."

Joe re-entered the conversation, asking Jim, "Can you explain to me why a 2-year Treasury is down 120 basis points if the economy's so strong."

"I think I know where you're going. I will agree with you!" Jim told Joe, although sigh Jim didn't really answer or address Joe's question, as Joe wasn't asking Jim to re-complain about the Fed. "I think that the market thinks and I think that the Fed has gotten it wrong. I'm with you, I'm with Jeremy Siegel, that that 25-basis-point cut- excuse me, hike, a month ago, was, was, ridiculous. That's gonna be the first one they take off. It had no purpose whatsoever."

"A hundred basis points lower in yields is not a strong economy," Joe insisted as though Jim had said nothing.

"I need you to have some water, I need you to rest up-" Judge started to tell Jim before the commercial break.

"I'm really entertained. Can they keep goin'?" asked Steve Weiss.

Judge should be having fun hectoring Jim (or anyone else); he’s obviously not, hence we have a problem

Still not through with Jim Lebenthal's stock outlook, Judge near the end of Wednesday's (4/12) Halftime Report played Warren Buffett's comments from the morning on owning PARA in which Warren didn't sound particularly high on the company.

Jim said Charlie Munger also "came down" on the stock about 2 months ago. Jim said "This is clearly not a Munger, uh, Buffett pick. This is clearly Todd Comb (sic meant 'Combs') and Ted Weschler (Jim pronounced it 'Wexler' twice but Becky Quick and others say 'Weshler' in YouTube clips. Jim did say 'Combs' in 2 other references.)."

"How do you know that?" Judge demanded.

"I can't prove it, but I mean, look at these comments," Jim said.

At the end of the segment, Steve Weiss cracked, "Of all the great investors we've had come on, that's the highest praise we've ever heard on one of Jim's positions." Everybody chuckled, but unfortunately there was a delay in cutting to commercial, so the Halftime production gave us an awkward moment of dead air that started to be filled by Joe Terranova saying "I can't believe-" before the commercial.

OK ... sigh ... Here's the kind of opining that'll get us tossed out of the union ... Yes, we get that Jim's commentary, which has been the same since about January 2022 no matter what the news or data or S&P 500 is, has, in this nearly yearlong flat market, generally gotten stale. But so has some of that of other panelists. What we don't get is what Judge actually wants or expects Jim to say. And our solution is probably too obvious; if Judge is tired of what Jim says, then don't invite him on the program as often. Some folks appear on Halftime maybe once or twice a month. Jim somehow appears about 3-4 times a week. People presumably land appearances on this show for various reasons; if Judge is having such issues with one person's commentary, well, call in the WME muscle (see below) and change the lineup*. Judge expressing exasperation with Jim's commentary is like Bob Barker getting ticked that someone keeps bidding $5 for a pack of gum; stop showcasing gum as the next item up for bid.

(*Viewers of the original "Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser" may recall that Louis had a collection of forecasters/panelists he called "elves" and that one of them, Gail Dudack, was bearish in the late '90s for years, was awarded a "dunce cap" by Lou and was either dropped or quit; he insisted she resigned but other accounts suggested that wasn't the case, not long before March 2000.)

Jeremy Siegel ‘absolutely’ sees a Fed cut this year

Jeremy Siegel on Wednesday's (4/12) Judge-vs.-Jim edition of the Halftime Report weighed in on core CPI, asserting, "If you actually put real shelter prices in, I mean, from apartment lists, Zillow, or the Case-Shiller number, I've done the calculation, core has been zero inflation for the last 4-5 months."

Siegel told Judge that Siegel has been saying for the last 2 months, "I'm not really optimistic about stock prices in 2023."

"But you were though," Judge cut in, warming up for his Jim Lebenthal cross-examination. "You were until not that long ago." Judge went on to say that "it was only about a month ago" that Jeremy said on Closing Bell that "stocks could go up 10-15% this year."

Jeremy said, "If I remember, I was for 10 and 15 in January, that's what I said, and maintained it until SVB and when I saw in addition the Fed not getting it and raising in March and not even putting 'pause' really in their statement."

Siegel said he's pessimistic for 2023 but "not for 2024." Judge said "that's a long time out." Siegel said he "absolutely" thinks the Fed will cut this year.

"I'm more cautious on short term than I've been in a long time," Siegel said.

Steve Weiss said he doesn't think the Fed will cut this year "unless the economy really tanks," but if the Fed is going to cut, "they will message it beforehand," and "the market's gonna take off at that point," which presents "a little conflict in what he's saying."

Karen Finerman on the 5 p.m. Fast Money says ‘mild recession’ would be a ‘home run for the Fed’

On Wednesday's (4/12) Halftime Report, Anastasia Amoroso, who barely got a word in, said the CPI report "was a good one."

Steve Weiss said CPI was a "good top-line, headline print" and "I'm actually surprised the market's not higher than it is." Judge said the market was higher until there was "a bit of a Barkin buzzkill."

Judge then brought in Steve Liesman, who said, "I don't think Barkin is what the market thinks Barkin is. (snicker) I'll tell you this, I, I mean, I've read Barkin's comment like 3 times, and I don't quite understand it. When he says he needs to see this — before he does what? Before he pauses, before he stops hiking, before he cuts? It's unclear in his statement, uh, what exactly he's referring to."

Joe Terranova mentioned a "hailstorm of data" again but even said, "I think that the credibility of the Fed needs to be called into question."

Bryn: ‘Very, very little traction’ in cancer vaccine progress for decades

On Tuesday's (4/11) Halftime Report, Meg Tirrell impressively explained why MRNA was having a tough day with the flu. (This writer is long MRNA.)

Bryn Talkington, whose video feed made her look a bit like an animated CGI figure (it didn't change at all the fact Bryn looks great on television), said MRNA is "a very real company," but meanwhile, she continues to sell 85-90 upside calls in XBI.

Then came this: "I mean when they talk about a cancer vaccine, that sounds promising. We've made very, very little traction in actually, you know, cancer over the last few decades," Bryn said.

Bryn's right. And it's not just cancer. It's things like the Human Genome Project, more than 20 years ago, that, once completed, was going to lead to cures of everything.

What Bryn said is a reminder that tons of medical promise, often made in regards to stocks or securing funding, goes unfulfilled.

Uh oh, sounds like a ‘bailout’

On Tuesday's (4/10) Halftime Report, Judge brought up recent market commentary from Torsten Sløk (it's not often we get to expand our alphabet) (that's correct, lower-case alphabet, not the company that everyone actually just calls "Google") and Chris Harvey.

What really got our attention during this conversation was that Joe Terranova mentioned the prospect of having to "subsidize the commercial real estate industry" in 2024.

Joe said we haven't had "price capitulation," and maybe that's what the market and Fed need.

But Judge stated, "The soft landing crowd isn't ready to fully leave the building." Bryn Talkington said there has to be an "event" that creates capitulation.

Bryn said office space was "already in a recession" and makes up just "25% of commercial real estate" and, in a description that goes beyond our pay grade, said she doesn't think the headlines that "make this one asset class homogeneous are accurate when it's very heterogeneous."

Judge asked Bryn what she does if the soft landing crowd is "right." Bryn said "well, we're already invested," with "about 45% of our portfolio with out of the money calls," so if the S&P shoots back to 4,500 or 4,800, "we'll underperform," but "we're not sitting here in cash waiting for something to happen" and that it's a "dangerous thing for investors, if they're trying to time this."

Jenny Harrington said Torsten Sløk's comment on commercial real estate about the "bubble bursting" is "really upsetting."

Jenny then asked for a chart of BXP and questioned, "How can a bubble burst when the stock's flat over 15 years. Or has it already burst?" (OK ... Hmmmm ... we're not experts here, but we're not sure a 15-year stock chart is a reliable indicator of whether there's a bubble bursting. We have no idea whether there even is a bubble or whether, if so, it may be bursting.)

"This is what's challenging, is nothing's moving with symmetry," Jenny said. (Actually we think what's most challenging is that it's simply been a flat market for a very long time.)

Jenny insisted to Judge that "these calls are very inflammatory, right?" Judge countered, "There are legitimate concerns, are there not, about commercial real estate?"

Jenny said, "OK yes," but stocks already reflect "so much pain."

Jenny: Congressional stock trading revelations are ‘super upsetting’

Judge on Tuesday's (4/11) Halftime Report told Bryn Talkington that Chris Harvey is saying "sell before May and go away." Bryn noted the market has already "pulled forward" a lot of gains this year. Bryn predicted inflation will drop "handsomely" this summer.

Joe Terranova said, "I think we're about to go into a hailstorm" involving "an abundance of data."

Joe said he could see stocks going to the top of the range, 4,200, because people aren't "positioned" for it.

Judge said Brian Belski reports that his expectations are now "relatively tempered." Joe said "there's every reason to be concerned about the consumer because credit conditions are tightening dramatically."

Jenny Harrington said KMX was "overly sold" and "overly discounted." Bryn said used cars are "rebounding" and suggested KMX and AZO "continue to get a bid."

Judge said the P.E. of KMX is "2 or 3 times" that of AN.

Judge said it's an "interesting time" to upgrade WHR as Goldman Sachs did. Jenny said the stock was on her list and lamented not buying it a week ago.

Judge and Joe noted there's not much coverage on the stock.

Judge read through the highlights of the WSJ's article about stock trades by members of Congress. Joe Terranova bluntly declared there needs to be a "compliance" or "regulatory body" with "oversight" over Congress trades. "There's no reason for them to trade individual stocks," Joe said. (OK, this page basically agrees, but on the other hand ... we dunno ... running for Congress shouldn't necessarily mean you're banned from an American pastime.)

Bryn said "it's just such poor form, but so unsurprising." Jenny said it's "disgusting" and "super upsetting."

Judge says the Biden administration ‘hates mergers’

Addressing XOM-PXD on Monday's (4/10) sleepy Halftime Report, Joe Terranova predicted that "there's gonna be a tremendous amount of M&A in 2023 and 2024."

But Judge bluntly declared, "This administration hates mergers" and "they especially don't like energy companies."

Judge asked Steve Weiss why he doesn't own PXD. Weiss admitted "I missed it" but that energy is for trades, and "You have to buy it when everybody hates it." (Actually, we kind of agree with that, except energy/commodities can run for a long time, witness coal in the early 2000s.)

Judge said BMO reiterated an outperform 120 (Zzzzzzzz) on NKE. Joe affirmed he sold it in 2021 but said he needs to see "more recovery in the business model" before buying again. (No one opined on whether the movie "Air" could lift the stock.)

Joe was asked to Grade My Trade on ATVI. Joe gave the viewer a B and said, "And if he follows up, we will potentially raise that to an A." Judge wondered, "What do you mean, 'follows up.' Do you have office hours or something like that," one of his best lines in weeks. Joe impressively ignored it and kept going. Joe explained that holders need to "really get out" around 90 or 91 in case the deal prospects fall.

If the S&P slid to 3,600, would CNBC be producing market specials at 7 p.m. Eastern? We think not (a/k/a How Weiss is looking at the world differently)

Monday's (4/10) Halftime Report was so sleepy, we almost said, "Why bother." (If you didn't see it, you really didn't miss anything.) But whatever.

Joe Terranova said credit tightening is an "added albatross on the consumer."

Joe said he sees "potentially building up a cushion in the coming weeks," whatever that means.

Kari Firestone said the market is "kinda holding in a pattern."

Steve Weiss, of course, said it's "unrealistic" to think of Q1 as the "trough."

"It's not good news the market's at 4,100, OK. I think the market should be trading right now at 3,600," Weiss said.

Judge said 3,600 "sounds a little dramatic."

"I don't think so," Weiss said, claiming it's better than 3,200.

Kari Firestone asserted that 3,200 or 3,400 is "extreme." Weiss said "just to be clear," he said 3,600, not 3,200 or 3,400.

Joe was telling Judge that he can't see being underweight tech. Weiss said of Joe, "You see, we look at the world differently, not, not, you're not wrong, I'm not wrong, we look at it differently." (Translation: Weiss disagrees with Joe but doesn't want to start an argument during this particular conversation.)

Weiss said he's "very happy" (snicker) to get 4-5% in Treasurys. (Yeah, sure he's happy about that kind of return.)

In a very curious reference to The Masters, Joe Terranova revealed, "I play golf. I stink," though how "reinvestment risk" has anything to do with a major golf tournament, we're not sure.

Kari Firestone incorrectly offered, "I think that we're all saying some version of the same thing," which is that 4,100 is "not cheap," but there are things "attractively priced."

CNBC graphics crew fails to spell A-L-P-H-A-B-E-T

Josh Brown on Thursday's (4/6) Halftime Report said he bought more GOOGL and said "my average cost is significantly lower than where it is now" (that's fine, but the stock doesn't care what anyone's basis is and Investment Committee members' basis doesn't help viewers make winning trades).

Brown mentioned that "AI" thing (it's everywhere) (but didn't say whether it has anything to do with NVDA).

Steve Weiss said he agrees "a thousand percent" with Brown on GOOGL, but Weiss sold his "momentum trade" of META and believes that "largely the tech trade is over."

But moments later, Judge twice mentioned "Nvidia." Weiss suggested a lot of people bought the "momentum" in names like NVDA but that no one can "justify" the valuation.

Judge was a little low; Ruth bat got $1.85 million, up from $400,000 just 5 years ago

As CNBC's devastating Seema Mody (above) reported during Thursday's (4/6) Halftime Report on an auction of Air Jordans, Judge revealed that he saw a day earlier that a Babe Ruth bat "sold for like a million and a half dollars" and opined, "The market for sports memorabilia is still amazing."

It's interesting that Judge would say that, because this page has practically begged Judge to take up this topic since the pandemic began as we started to notice that the "alternative investment market" (which we think is what Robert Frank calls it) involving sports and comic book stuff was catching fire like Peloton, only — and this is a BIG difference — unlike Peloton, a lot of this stuff is still going up.

2 developments have caught our eye; 1) that these grading/slabbing companies basically (this is actually true) had to tell customers in 2020 and 2021 to "stop sending us stuff" because they were beyond flooded with new business in which they charge $50 or more to put a card or comic in a plastic case that costs surely under $5 or even $1 and opine that "Yep it's a real card," and 2) that eBay's got some kind of "vault," apparently only for sports cards as of now, in which people can buy cards on eBay and later sell them without ever handling the goods in the same way stock certificates are handled.

And the prices on some of this stuff, as Judge noted, suggest sports memorabilia is sort of emerging as an art market for the masses.

Please note, this page is not advising anyone to drop 25 grand on the best copy of Hulk 181 they can find (we just learned what that was in the past year) (actually 25 grand on one of those might be a great investment) but it's fair to say there's probably a decent number of viewers, if not actual show panelists, who've been thinking that putting $50K into some Ty Cobb cards might be more fun, and rewarding, than some 6% munis.

Weiss can still deliver a huge scoop, tell us who Tepper is going to draft

Judge opened Thursday's (4/6) Halftime talking about the "bad news for the economy" in the form of fresh data, but Jim Lebenthal said Judge was giving a "measured" assessment, which is Jim's own opinion.

Jim said the data hasn't been good but hasn't been "awful." For example, Jim said ISM was worse than expected but still in "expansionary territory."

Judge brought up Bullard's remarks and stated, "The market is not buying anything that the Fed is selling."

Steve Weiss said he's not sure the labor market will "completely" roll over because people have "memories" of how hard it's been to hire people.

Weiss mentioned a host of data and said, unlike Jim, "All those are same thing" and the Fed moves are "just starting to hit." and so "you should sell some stocks."

Jim insisted "This is a great stock-picker's market."

Moments later, Jim said there's "validity in the aggregate" (snicker) in regard to Weiss' comments. Judge said, "Everybody on this show with all due respect is, is a stock-picker." Weiss said "everything doesn't decline at once, it takes a while."

You don’t need to do anything (except hope the stock doesn’t slide and erase your gains)

Bob Pisani on Thursday's (4/6) Halftime Report joined the crew at Post 9 to say dividends in Q1 were still going up but cash flow may be coming under pressure.

Jenny Harrington said that dividend investing is the "easiest side hustle you could have." Jenny pointed out that taking a half million in a 5% dividend yielding play is "25 grand a year ... and you don't need to do anything."

Judge asked Jenny to talk about Easterly (DEA, but not the drug-fighting group) (that stock took off as Jenny was discussing it, which Judge noted moments later) and its nearly 8% yield. Jenny said it's a REIT "that owns government properties." Jenny said it's been "lumped in with office REITs."

Jenny also likes PSTL, which yields over 6%, and like DEA is "slow, steady, really safe."

Josh Brown said COST has a "stickiness" that means it would be OK even if the consumer started to slip.

Jenny's had a good Stock Summit, picking UBER (up 28% according to one of Judge's charts; up 26.6% according to another shown seconds later), B&G Foods (up 39%) and KSS (down 7% on one chart; down 9.8% on another). Josh Brown, as always gushed about UBER.

This time, Jim does not ask Judge if Judge is ‘scared’ to hear what Jim has to say

Josh Brown on Thursday's (4/6) Halftime Report said the volatility in yields has been "off the charts" and that anything from 6 months to 30 years out is yielding lower than at the start of the year.

Brown predicted the "rolling credit crunch" will get "worse and worse" this year. He pointed to the "absolutely incredible" rip in the XLV off the March 9 lows.

Jenny Harrington said when yields come down, "valuations go up." Jenny acknowledged valuations have gone up, but "they've come down from 21 times last year."

Jenny said she's been "pretty negative" for about a year and a half but is "starting to feel OK."

Jenny took a "fresh look at Abbvie" and saw "nothing compelling" and said the 3.6% yield was too "lackluster."

Jim Lebenthal, who owns ABBV, said he believes there's "more legs" to the ABBV pipeline. Jenny said she's not making a "negative call" on ABBV.

Jenny did buy FLNG and acknowledge a lot of people won't touch tankers. Judge wondered if $2 nat gas is a factor in that stock. Jenny indicated no, "it needs to be shipped." Jenny said the stock has an 11% yield.

Steve Weiss sold DE and KEY. Weiss said construction will "slow dramatically" and he thinks DE has lower to go.

A 4-week wait

Judge on Wednesday's (4/5) Halftime Report asked Joe Terranova if Joe is buying either gold or the dip in tech. Joe promised to tell Judge "exactly what I'm doing" at the end of the month, though he acknowledged that being underweight tech and growth hasn't been so great.

Brian Belski said big banks will be the "big winners" from recent regional bank turmoil and that there will be "massive consolidation" and "pointed regulation" for small and mid banks.

Belski said some people like staples, but you have to skate to where the puck's going; Judge questioned if the puck is going "to a softer portion of the ice." Judge floated the notion of a "consumer recession" to Belski, which is basically where Judge and Jim Lebenthal tangled a day earlier (see below). (Brian didn't ask Judge if Judge is "scared" about what Brian says, nor did Brian accuse Judge of "trivializing" consumer strength.)

Frank Holland joined the crew at Post 9 to report on the FedEx "evolution" or "big swing" or "dramatic restructuring" (any of the above, apparently).

Kari Firestone bought NEE. Joe said, "We imported more oil in the last week than at any time since 2020."

Obviously the Fed is really scared about more bank failures

Judge opened Wednesday's (4/5) Halftime Report by asking Joe Terranova about "weak" data (Zzzzzzzzz). Joe mentioned that we haven't felt "the effect" of the "largest disinflationary shock that we've experienced" during the inflation fight from Silicon Valley Bank.

Then Judge moved on to comments by Mester (Zzzzzzzzz), who according to Judge thinks rates should stay above 5% "for some time."

Kari Firestone said rents "are coming down fast." Kari said it's "unlikely" the Fed can keep rates this high if the economy is definitely slowing.

Bryn Talkington said the data tells us "what we already knew" and doesn't even "remotely" reflect disinflation from regional banks' lending cutbacks. Bryn said CPI is "around 6" while Fed funds is "at 4.80" and "historically the Fed has never stopped a tightening cycle before CPI was below Fed funds," so we're dealing with the "playbook" that the Fed will overshoot.

Gary Kaminsky explains how viewers can actually take up Fish’s trade (just as a car is shown leaving a courthouse)

Monday on the Halftime Report, Mark Fisher made the case for natural gas; the only problem is, a lot of folks viewing the show can't exactly put in some nat gas spot price futures trades at the CME.

On Tuesday's (4/4) Closing Bell, former CNBC host Gary Kaminsky, now chairman of Magnifi+ and whose show The Strategy Session was once chronicled on this page, joined Judge at Post 9 to explain how viewers might indeed find a way to play a nat gas move.

As Donald Trump made his way either in or out of court, Gary said "Magnifi has been called 'The Google of Finance'" and that anyone who heard Fish's commentary Monday could go to the site and type in "I want to invest in natural gas long," and Magnifi will supply info on ETFs, mutual funds sortable by performance and fees and other factors.

(Gary didn't mention AI, but ... yes, it's everywhere ... it is mentioned on Magnifi's portal; at least Judge didn't ask if it involves NVDA chips.)

At that point, Judge had to cut off the conversation to talk about the "historic moment" in Manhattan court that the entire media universe has been breathlessly calling a "historic moment" for the past week. But earlier, Kaminsky opined on the state of the markets and Fed policy.

"Averages obviously were skewed by a couple of big stocks," Kaminsky said of Q1, advising "Don't fight the Fed." Judge said the Fed is "certainly closer to the end than the beginning." Gary said he thinks the Fed will "overshoot" and that "Nobody knows" what time will be the time when the market starts looking forward and that he doesn't think rates have peaked and "would not be surprised" to see 6%.

Gary also said there's a "duration mismatch at a number of banks" and that this isn't "the end" of recent bank stress and stressed the wealth-building value over time of dividends and distributions.

Jim insists ‘I’ve been right’ about the economy for a year; Judge says that ‘apparently,’ anyone who is bullish and didn’t sell last year was ‘right’

Oh my.

This page, amid a long day, figured we'd catch up with the Halftime Report in the evening (4/4) and put together a concise little summary of what was said.

Then, Judge went back to hectoring Jim Lebenthal about Jim's basically long-term bullish outlook on the economy (hope we didn't misstate that in any way).

It started when Jim said in recent weeks he has been getting "a little bit more negative" or "incrementally more negative."

Judge said he doesn't "know what that means" and basically demanded that Jim "address where the economy's going."

Jim said he's already addressed that but went on to make a bull case for Deere because Europe needs more farm equipment.

Jim at one point managed to successfully interrupt Judge, acknowledging, "It is a bad day." Judge countered, in a sign that nothing in this program or conversation was going to be easy, "It's not even that bad of a day."

"It's been a pretty good year," Jim continued, emphasizing that the consumer has been hanging in there and maybe Judge is trying to "trivialize" consumer strength. (Doesn't Jim know that Judge is backed by WME?)

Judge said, "I'm not suggesting otherwise ... How am I trivializing it?"

Judge said that Jim acts like the consumer is "never going to" slow.

Jim said Judge acts like "it hasn't been a year that you've been saying that, and it hasn't happened."

Judge insisted he's been saying that the economy has held up "far better for far longer" than people thought.

Moments later, Jim said, "You're holding my feet to the fire about what I say. I'm holding your feet to the fire about what you say. You're saying I've been bullish for a year. You're damn right. And I've been right for a year, OK. The economy's hung in there. You've been saying for a year that it stinks; it's about to fall off a cliff. It hasn't."

"You've been right? ... Did the market have a great year last year?" Judge asked.

"No it didn't. Did I sell into that? Did I give up into that? No, I didn't, because I have the guts and the courage of my conviction because I think for myself, Scott," Jim said.

Judge stated, "Everybody who didn't sell last year is right. Who was bullish. Apparently."

"You're gonna trivialize that? We had this conversation at the end of the year. If you sold last year, you're darn right, you lost money. You lost money last year. You turned temporary losses into permanent losses," Jim argued.

"OK so when you, when you opened- I don't even know why we're having this discussion anymore. When you, when you opened your statement at the end of last year, but you didn't sell, so you felt really good, if you didn't sell? Who does that???" Judge demanded.

"Scott, long-term investors- long-term investors who know what they're doing, who know why they own stocks-" Jim tried to say.

"In that case you're never down," Judge continued.

"Why do you feel you always have to interrupt me? Are you scared of what I'm gonna say? ... 'Cause I don't understand why you always interrupt me," Jim asked.

"I just don't understand the point of suggesting that you didn't sell, so therefore you were right," Judge said.

"We'll do what we did on December 31st," Jim said. "Let me ask you this: Do you remember your losses from 2008? Are you still nursing those? I'm not gonna nurse last year. It's this year. The markets are up."

"Why are the markets up?" Judge demanded, saying it's because of "10 stocks."

Jim pointed to WYNN, BA and PARA and insisted "there is more to this market."

At the end of the show, Judge told Jim, "You can give it as well as you can take it. And uh, I appreciate, uh, and certainly respect your opinion."

"And likewise, Scott," Jim said.

Meanwhile, Jim said BA has a lot of already-built 737 Maxes sitting around just waiting to be delivered to China. And Jim called FRC "the canary in the coal mine" for the banking sector. Josh Brown said he bought NEM because the technicals are lining up with the fundamentals. Stephanie Link said recent data has been "not so great." Brown said the market is stuck in a range, "in chop city."

Judge basically interviews his own agent, who’s now a wrestling powerhouse

Anyone who caught Squawk on the Street on Monday (4/3) got something of either a scoop or a treat or both when Judge turned up to introduce his "exclusive" interview, taped a day earlier in Los Angeles, with Ari Emanuel and Vince McMahon, who just shook hands on a deal for Endeavor to acquire WWE (or whatever the wrestling outfit is called now).

Judge hardly put his subjects in a figure 4 leg lock, asking questions such as "There were a lot of other suitors" (sic not really a question and, honestly, probably not really true) and what Ari would do if Vince wants to get back into the ring and that "many doubted" McMahon would ever sell a controlling stake (also not really a question and also probably not really true either) and noting $9 billion is a "big number!!," but as he narrated the interview from Post 9 on Monday morning with Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer, Judge was compelled to reveal, by disclosure standards, one of those little-known nuggets that only sites like this seem to care about:

"One more important note, I'm personally represented by WME, a unit of Endeavor. It's a talent agency that represents several CNBC anchors and on-air reporters, including the 2 of you, uh, many of our colleagues."

"Henry Reisch is my agent, WME," Jim Cramer confirmed.

We'd kind of thought "WME" as an abbreviation had kind of disappeared; evidently that's not correct, even though, according to its own website, it kinda sounds like Endeavor and William Morris combined to be William Morris Endeavor, then bought IMG to become just Endeavor again ... but whatever.

Anyway, the fact "WME" represents a bunch of CNBCers only makes people wonder, for example, if Anchor A wants that 7 p.m. Eastern spot and Anchor B also wants that 7 p.m. Eastern spot and both Anchor A and Anchor B are represented by Ari, then ...

Ah, forget that. Let's give credit to Ari for at least handing a scoop to one of his customers.

Pro wrestling is an interesting business line. It succeeds despite what's essentially a forever-long media boycott — it's not considered legitimate sport, nor is it considered the same type of material as live theater. Try finding articles about it — the actual product — in any newspaper.

About the only thing to glean from Judge's interview is the body language between Emanuel (who resembles Roger Maris) and McMahon (who's got a Salvador Dali mustache) and whether it means this arrangement will work. McMahon, to his credit, which Judge didn't really bring up in this interview, is a fabulous showman, it's certainly not everyone's cup of tea but it's basically like the Sumner Redstone story in terms of business savvy. We got the sense that McMahon is a little rough around the edges and not the same type of celebrity that Emanuel typically deals with and will probably squawk a bit from time to time but that Vince can't really be a frontman anymore, especially in Hollywood, for reasons Judge did mention, so Ari's sitting pretty good here.

Fish fights through phone static, says the ‘same thing’ that occurred in oil will happen in nat gas

Mark Fisher dialed in to Monday's (4/3) Halftime Report; Judge said he was "gathering" that Fish was surprised by the OPEC move.

"Not really," Fish said, explaining that people thought the U.S. would come in and buy for the SPR, and when that didn't happen, "OPEC said, 'OK, we're gonna cut.'"

After an obvious cellphone glitch, Fish said, "Hold on a second ... Hold on," then continued rather impressively maintaining the call, explaining what OPEC does from $70 to $90 a barrel. "Eventually the same thing's gonna happen in natural gas," Fish said.

Fish said this is not a "retaliation" but "just business." Fish told Judge, "Unfortunately we were long; we got out of most of our stuff last week."

Joe Terranova said if you were overweight energy going into Monday, "you got a life preserver today."

Joe offered 3 names if you're not already in energy: XOM, FANG and HES. "I would avoid the refiners," Joe said.

Liz Young referred to a recent conversation on the show about the debt-ceiling impasse preventing the government from filling the SPR; she still likes energy "for the year."

Sarat Sethi said OPEC just wants to "maintain" prices that had slipped.

Joe says Weiss shouldn’t ‘dismiss’ momentum when Weiss actually didn’t

On Monday's (4/3) Halftime Report, Judge actually spent about 6 minutes talking about INTC (Zzzzzzzz).

Joe Terranova said he doesn't want to own INTC but there's "a lot of people that are talking about the chart."

Weiss said "price momentum" is a "legitimate investment strategy" but questioned the valuation of semis. Joe said the "valuation story" has been "so convoluted and conflicted over the last 20 years" and that he doesn't like INTC at all but the chart is saying to buy it.

Weiss casually said "my discipline's more value, or GARP" (he defined "GARP" when he doesn't really have to on a program like this) and Joe for some reason launched the accusation "You bought the Q's last week on momentum!" and "Just don't dismiss momentum then."

"I didn't dismiss," Weiss correctly said, stating he said momentum is an "investment strategy" but it's "not my strategy."

Leave it to this page to "dismiss" momentum (though this page is not dismissing the JOET, only the notion of "momentum" as an "investment strategy").

Weiss could deliver a major news-sports scoop, announce who Tepper will draft No. 1

Liz Young started off Monday's (4/3) Halftime Report saying that this week will "maybe be kind of quiet." Judge said Liz "just jinxed it. Way to go, Liz!" Liz laughed and said, "Happy Monday, everybody!"

Liz said she'd "probably fade" the tech run.

Joe Terranova, on the other hand, said Tuesday-Thursday will be "particularly volatile" because markets aren't open Friday. Joe said the market has rallied on "sentiment and seasonals," which he thinks can continue for "several weeks."

Steve Weiss, who seems to be on every day nowadays, said we're probably at 220 in S&P earnings and "I think we go down to at least 200," and it'll take "multiple expansion" if the market "stays in place."

Weiss said he bought UNH on Friday and bought more Monday. He said "CMS actually came out as they often do with some nice rate increases that surprised the Street," Weiss said.

Late in the show, Judge brought up his interview in the pro wrestling world in which he re-aired a few clips that he already aired on Squawk on the Street. (See above.)

Sarat Sethi said the deal in Florida is "DeSantis testing Iger. To see what he's gonna do."

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