CNBCfix - Fast Money Review

Judge says PANW CEO ‘refuted’ panelist’s argument — and ‘I think we had some issues with what Malcolm had to say’

On Thursday's (5/29) Halftime Report, Judge had a correction to air. And first, he let a CEO do the honors.

Judge was referring to Halftime panelist Malcolm Ethridge's comment a day earlier that for PANW, "50 to 60% of their revenues comes from the federal sector," a point made by Ethridge while explaining why he sold and doesn't like the stock.

(In hindsight, that does seem awfully high.) (But this page didn't think to question it a day ago.)

Ethridge also bluntly stated in his debate with Stephanie Link, "Palo Alto Networks needs the U.S. government."

Anyway, on Thursday, Judge said PANW CEO Nikesh Arora actually "refuted Malcolm's key claim in a post last night on LinkedIn."

OK. Terminology there is a big deal. Because many people misuse "refute." Including CNBCers. More commonly, something is only "rebutted." But given what Judge went on to say, it sounds like CNBC believes "refute" is in fact the correct term here.

Judge showed a graphic of Arora's rebuttal. Of the 4 points listed on screen, the first one — 5% of billings are from the government — is the only one that really matters. Judge then spoke to the camera and indicated that not just Arora, but CNBC, had a problem with Ehtridge's comments a day earlier:

"Here's the key point to be made, and where I think we had some issues with what Malcolm had to say. 50% of government spending on cyber goes to Palo Alto. (That too seems a high number, but this page is not going to investigate it.) 50% of what the government spends on cyber goes to Palo Alto. NOT that Palo Alto itself relies on the government for 50 to 60% of its billings. What percentage of Palo Alto's total billings come from government? In Q3, the company reported single digits, and you saw what Nikesh Arora himself said in his own words, was 5%. Um, yes, there have been concerns about slowdowns in billings (sounded like 'buildings') in prior quarters, including from the government. Uh, but the numbers were way off. And, the facts matter. They matter to you. Matter to us. Matter to the companies we talk about. I wanted to get that cleared up."

OK. Hmmmm ... Normally in situations such as these, the panelist dials in the next day and says "Sorry, I misspoke." Or possibly, the panelist may dial in to explain why they think they were corerct. Ethridge, who has only made a handful of Halftime appearances but has been a semi-regular on Closing Bell for years, did not appear on Thursday's show.

Either he meant to say, "They get 50-60% of all government cyberspending." Or he meant to say exactly what he did say.

Of course we don't know, but given how emphatic he was in his reasoning, we have to think it's more likely the latter than the former.

Which then begs the question — if a Certified Financial Planner (according to his web page at CNBC.com) is selling a stock and expressing deep skepticism about it on television because he thinks the company gets 50% of its revenue from the federal government when it really only gets 5% according to its company report ... what kind of research is he actually doing?

On Thursday, after Judge's statement, Bryn Talkington said of the PANW debate, "Steph won on that one." Except Stephanie didn't argue that Malcolm's numbers were wrong — she argued that the government won't cut cybersecurity spending. On that point, Ethridge may still be correct. This page will say that any company's government contract during this administration probably shouldn't be regarded as iron-clad.

Bryn on Thursday said to just "buy the basket" in cybersecurity. Josh Brown said ZS looks "phenomenal" and added that he owns CRWD, which he said made a record high on Wednesday. (This writer is long CRWD.)

Ethridge does not appear on CNBC.com's Halftime Report "Investment Committee" portal, which lists the current holdings of panelists. He does appear on the CNBC.com page of CNBC Contributors, which includes most Halftime Report and Fast Money panelists.

On Wednesday, Malcolm had told Stephanie, "I wish I had called you before I sold my shares. You might've paid a premium for 'em." He would've been better off calling up the company's quarterly report.

At the end of Wednesday's PANW debate, Judge said, "All right, we'll leave it there. Little spicy, which we like."

Jensen read a script

Judge opened Thursday's (5/29) Halftime Report declaring the trade court ruling on tariffs is only "far, far from the end of it," so "we're gonna focus on Nvidia." (Which made us wonder whether anyone wants to buy CLF instead of NVDA.)

Josh Brown said NVDA's in a "really singular position" with a "not crazy" multiple. "Obviously, the growth rate is decelerating," Josh conceded. All that said, "This company is just absolutely on fire," Josh said.

Bryn Talkington said the options market seemed to get the NVDA move right, and to get past all-time highs, we'll need "clarity around China." However, when it comes to Jensen, "I think this is the first call I've ever heard him read a script, first of all. Very, I mean- he didn't have one extemporaneous word. It was all very scripted out."

"Is that a problem?" Judge asked Bryn. "You're not the only one who's mentioned that," adding that an analyst thought it was "closer to an Apple call."

Bryn said "it would matter" if it becomes a "consistent" feature of the earnings call. Bryn said Jensen "obviously owes a debt of gratitude to Trump for negotiating you know with the Saudi and UAE."

Bill Baruch said NVDA is "our largest position at this moment here." He said he really likes what Jensen said, "scripted or not." Bill said, "I now think 180 is the next stop up here."

Just what the world needs:
‘Mission: Impossible 30’

Bill Baruch on Thursday's (5/29) Halftime Report talked about buying more GOOGL, citing "the I/O event."

Judge noted Bill was "skeptical" of the "Eddy Cue, so to speak, selloff."

Bill said "there was levitation" after the I/O event, and the stock has a "lot of room."

Jenny Harrington though said, "I'm gonna bet you that my search on Google is down 50% in the last month, because I'm using ChatGPT, Grok, Claude, and I'm using them all the time, and I'm getting much better results. ... And I'm not seeing any advertising on those."

Bill pointed to videos "that are coming out of AO 3" and said "There could be 'Mission: Impossible 30'."

Josh Brown wondered what happens to Alphabet stock if "OpenAI files for an IPO." Josh said Gemini might not be a "total also-ran" but it's "not where it needs to be."

Judge said semis have been "on fire" in May. Jenny Harrington, of course, said, "I think we need to be careful when saying 'Hey this is a great month.'" Jenny suggested the moves are only because the stocks a month ago "were down too much."

Judge said the Mag 7 ETF is having its "best month ever." Bryn Talkington said that Jenny's point about "mean reversion trade" is "very accurate."

Jenny said you might want to own "3" or "5" of the Mag 7, "but I'm not sure you wanna own all 7."

‘Double top’ in bitcoin

Judge returned from the A Block commercial break on Thursday's (5/29) Halftime Report announcing that Bryn Talkington sold NKE and RH.

Bryn shrugged that she bought RH at 145 and sold May 23 180 calls and it got called away, "about a 39% return" in 6 weeks.

Bryn said NKE going back on Amazon "was incredibly smart," but the company needs a "refresh." Jenny Harrington praised Bryn for buying RH and NKE when they were hit last month.

Bill Baruch touted AS, which he said had a "blowout report last week."

Josh Brown touted DRI, which meant touting Olive Garden while explaining why he doesn't have to go there because of all the great Italian restaurants on Long Island.

Josh said if you're near a Capital Grille (that's Darden upscale), get the New York Strip or the ribeye.

Bryn suggested there's a "double top" in bitcoin around $109,000. Bill said gold looks "really constructive" and that moves in precious metals are "just getting started."

On Fast Money, Tim Seymour said, "Today was kinda tho- that weird day where tariffs don't exist anymore, but maybe they might." We gotta figure out how to get Tim elected to office.

‘There is no way this administration is cutting anything in cybersecurity’

Wednesday's (5/28) Halftime Report came up with a heckuva debate on cybersecurity stocks. (This writer is long CRWD.)

Malcolm Ethridge sold PANW and said he's been talking up the sector for a long time, "but Palo Alto specifically scares me," because of the "very different stance" by the Trump administration vs. the Biden administration as to paying for cybersecurity, so he'd rather be in CRWD, which he said is less exposed to the government.

Stephanie Link cut in, "There is no way this administration is cutting anything in cybersecurity."

Malcolm insisted the administration had just been "defending their stance" on cutting to Congress.

Regardless, "There is no way," Stephanie said several times.

Malcolm said, "DOGE cut 45% of the cyber workforce in the U.S. government." Stephanie brought up one of her favorite terms, "total addressable market," and she added, "You don't need the government." Malcolm insisted, "Palo Alto Networks needs the U.S. government."

While this page has no idea about the government contract specifics for PANW or CRWD or any other cybersecurity stock, it's our perception that PANW historically has had some lengthy slumps mixed around some great runs. Stephanie may ultimately have a better argument, but we're not sure there's any reason to jump in to PANW now.

Malcolm suggested that Stephanie might've bought his PANW shares at a premium.

Grasso: Sell the afterhours pop in NVDA

Maybe Wednesday's (5/28) most provocative stock call was heard early on Fast Money, when Steve Grasso said of NVDA, "I'd be a seller of this pop afterhours ... I think you're looking at lower prices tomorrow."

Later in the show, Grasso bluntly called NVDA an "easy sell."

Earlier on Halftime, Judge asked panelists about trading NVDA. Joe Terranova told Judge, "The hardest trade is usually the best trade." Which apparently means making the "hard" decision to stick with the upward momentum in NVDA that "does point towards" an all-time high in the stock.

Sarat Sethi said "the key point is visibility" and "the stock could move from here" if the company gets some China upside.

Malcolm Ethridge said the approach to NVDA depends on whether it could "ramp up production" of the Blackwell chip.

Stephanie Link didn't think this would be the "catalyst" quarter for NVDA and said if AVGO or NVDA falls on this report, you'd want to buy more. In quite an understatement, Stephanie said, "It was right to be buying these stocks in April and May." Can't argue with that one.

Joe said AVGO may "accelerate the buyback." Stephanie argued, "That's usually a 4th-quarter thing."

Joe conceded to Judge that he has criticized CRM in the past for being "serial acquirers." Joe's "undecided" on the Informatica deal.

CLF hits new 52-week low

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (5/28) Halftime Report claimed he gets asked "quite frequently" (snicker) numerous questions about giving clients more private equity exposure; Judge demanded, "What's your answer, rather than 20 questions, what are the answers."

Joe punted on that, stating that for wealth management, portfolios are "unique to the individual."

Stephanie Link added to KKR because she thinks private markets are still in "early innings."

Stephanie gave GAP an "oh by the way." Joe suggested that in retail, so far, "The companies are eating the cost of the tariff." Stephanie said she's hanging on to TGT because "I believe in the brand. I believe in the enterprise value," even though, "I'm not sure what happens to Brian Cornell by the way."

Judge said MNST hit a record high, which we didn't realize. Joe said it used to get talked about more often, which is true, and acknowledged the JOET owns it for momentum.

"I think we're still in digestion mode," Santoli said of the markets in general.

Joe said he sold BABA; he said he gave it "basically 90 days to work" but it was back to where he bought it. Joe said everyone will say that "David Tepper's in it" but Tepper isn't going to call Joe about how he's managing his position; "maybe he'll call Weiss."

Sarat Sethi unloaded CHTR, saying "net-net, we lost money" having owned it more than 2 years. According to the chart, it looks like if you bought it 12 months ago, you've done great, but it's way down from mid-2021.

‘A bunch of Cleveland Cliffs’

On Tuesday's (5/27) Halftime Report, Judge brought up CLF. We were kinda surprised no one was chuckling about this trade. Um, good thing it was given the seriousness it deserves.

Judge pointed out that CLF is "a $6 stock" (snicker) and is at a 52-week low. Then Judge demanded of Jim Lebenthal, "Literally, why do you own this stock."

Jim answered, "Well, basically, because I think it's undervalued."

Judge complained, "The amount of social media posts, uh, regarding this name and you, on a day like this, uh, they're many. ... We need some answers here."

Jim conceded, "This is not how I expected the stock to turn out. ... It's why you build a portfolio because you can't have a bunch of Cleveland Cliffs (snicker) in it ... They have a turnaround story (snicker) in place."

Jim explained he's not selling because he thinks this is the "wrong price at which to sell it." Judge noted Jim has recommended the stock "numerous times" — that's an understatement, it actually might be the most recommended stock in show history, given how often Jim has talked about it over so many years. (But why buy NFLX or TSLA when ... CLF is "undervalued"?) (This writer is long NFLX.)

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman announced an investment not in CLF, but the WNBA's New York Liberty. It's reported as a limited-partnership investment. We did think it's kind of curious that the new money, which includes investor cash from Jack Ma and Karlie Kloss, is going partly to a "state of the art" training facility that includes a "beauty salon" and "child care."

CNBC contributor Karen Finerman buys stake in New York Liberty; CNBC’s new sports reporting team doesn’t even put a story on CNBC.com

Joe Terranova on Tuesday's (5/27) Halftime Report suggested the market's getting "desensitized" to tariff headlines. As always, Joe brought up whatever bond yields are doing.

Joe said the market appears to be making a "potential run towards the all-time highs," though as always, Joe suggested once we get there, it could be a "bull trap."

Jim Lebenthal said it's a "possibility" that the market may be getting "desensitized" to tariff headlines because the tariffs are bringing money that can partly pay for some of the spending in the new tax bill — one of the few not-so-negative assessments of tariffs that we've heard on CNBC.

Josh Brown mentioned Marty Zweig and brought up the significance of "breadth thrusts" (snicker) and said the market had "multiple" breadth thrusts in May.

Josh said there's "massive call-buying" in NVDA that he thinks is "warranted." Josh contrasted NVDA's valuation with that of AAPL.

Jim said he bought NVDA at 120 before it fell to 90, then "bought more there." (Better that than CLF.)

Jim said Alphabet has become a "battleground" stock, and he's "surprised" that it's a battleground stock.

Joe cautioned that AAPL and TSLA have "headline risk."

Josh said consumers are answering the surveys (snicker) "negatively," but that's not a reflection of what consumers are actually doing.

Jim said consumers are "getting back on the balls (snicker) of their feet."

Josh said SNOW is back in the good graces of the stock market.

During Tuesday's Fast Money, ears around CNBCfix HQ perked up when Mel mentioned "$4 bathing suits."

Steve Grasso is running away with the Call of the Year

Back on April 7 (hit PgDn a few times), this page suggested that Steve Grasso's regular buy recommendations for X had surged atop the leaderboard for Halftime Report/Fast Money Call of the Year.

After what happened Friday (5/23), we doubt anyone will catch him.

Steve on Friday explained his view on the Nippon Steel-X takeover offer. "The president had to do something," Steve said, asserting it was "definitely consensus view whether you're a Democrat or whether you're a Republican."

Steve said Joe Biden "didn't want to let the deal go through" but the "original price" of $55, "they had to do something to get it back there."

As far as what to do now, Steve said, "I'm gonna hold on a little bit longer. But this is the top for me. ... This is more of a ceiling than a, a floor. ... I'm gonna exit as close to 55 as I can."

Tim Seymour questioned why even hang on "for the extra 3 bucks," adding, "It's not like there's a feeding frenzy around these assets." And actually, we think Tim's got a good point.

Grasso was calling X a buy at least as far back as December. On Jan. 7, with the stock at $33.30, he said, "I think you'll see a bailout," and on Feb. 7, with the stock having dipped to $36.98, he said X has a "chance" to reach 50.

There may not have been many specifics from the president in his X announcement Friday. But like Guy Adami always says, "Price is truth." Grasso more than once hung a 50 on what had been a $30 stock, and he got it in half a year.

That's gonna be really tough to beat.

(This writer was long X much of this year but no longer has a position.)

On AAPL, Steve said Friday, "I think you actually buy the stock here." Dan Ives said Friday was a "Twilight-Zone day" for any AAPL investor, given that the company's "done all the right things" as far as "pivoting out of China."

Steve noted the "amazing bounce-back" of NVDA, but "I think it's time to sell it again."

Kevin says tax concerns are ‘irrelevant’ to his trading calls; ‘comes down to math’

The Halftime Report crew on Friday (5/23) started to have — but never really finished — a very interesting discussion about the impact of taxes on stock portfolios.

Frankly, Judge could devote an entire episode to this subject and provide a lot of value to viewers (but instead we're going to do another report from the CNBC Sports Team about what mythical market value the Manchester United team might have).

Friday's tax conversation centered around AAPL. Judge said Dan Ives thinks the notion of making iPhones in the U.S. is a "fairy tale" and that AAPL would have to charge $3,500 per phone. But then Judge said Wells Fargo thinks prices would only have to go up $100-$200, which Judge said is "not exactly the $3,500 price tag that we've heard bandied about by the skeptics and the critics."

"I think you hold Apple here," offered Kevin Simpson, who nevertheless said that in the "intermediate and longer term," he's more worried about Jony Ive's deal with OpenAI-ChatGPT.

Then Jenny Harrington asked Kevin what was actually Jenny's best question in months: "What do you think if you hold Apple in an IRA. Versus a taxable account. Because everyone who has it in a taxable account has a huge capital gain. So you kinda need it to go down 15 to 30%, right?"

(OK, more on Jenny's "down 15 to 30%" in a moment.)

"So I never let the tax tail wag the dog," Kevin said, an interesting comment, because panelists on Halftime and Fast Money occasionally, but not always, mention tax considerations.

Kevin continued, "It's irrelevant in all of my theses, because it just comes down to math. But certainly in an IRA, you know me really well, I would wanna write covered calls against it, actively, because you have no short-term capital gains in the IRA. We do the same thing in taxable accounts."

OK, fair enough. Kevin says in IRAs, he would hold AAPL, and he'd write covered calls, and in fact, he'd do the same in a taxable account, where you presumably would have to account for short-term capital gains on writing those covered calls.

Kevin said he sold AAPL in December "around 247 and a half," and a month ago on April 9, he bought it at "177." So he traded it absolutely perfectly. Then he got to the point: Kevin said to Jenny, "But if your clients that have low cost basis, I think writing covered calls or at least putting in stops, paying the tax is better. Think of Nvidia when it was 150 and went to 88. No one sold it, because no one wanted to, because of the tax consequences."

OK. That last sentence is curious. Maybe people didn't sell NVDA because of "tax consequences," but NOT selling was also a great trading call, as the stock rocketed higher.

It seems people held NVDA at 88 for what Kevin considers a bad reason (avoiding tax), but in fact, owning NVDA at 88 was a great move.

Kevin of course was clear: He doesn't make stock decisions based on taxes. On AAPL specifically, he is saying to hold it, presumably because it will eventually go higher, but in the meantime, either put in a stop in case it doesn't go higher, or sell covered calls.

Before Jenny could respond, Jim Lebenthal got a chance.

Jim said the reason to own AAPL "is more technical than fundamental," which prompted Judge to scoff, "Let's not act like, you know, this- this company is dead in the water. Um, they still have the most powerful installed base in the history of consumer products by a lot."

Jim asserted, "When money flows into the markets, it's going to flow into Apple."

Jenny told Jim she disagrees with that: "The market's flat on the year, and Apple's down 21%. So it's not necessarily true." Jenny added that the "dicey" part of Jim's argument is that AAPL should have an "S&P-like return."

Back to taxes. Jenny insisted on concluding, "If I had Apple in an IRA, I think you need to be very, very cognizant of what the opportunity costs of holding it are. And if you don't believe it's gonna have an S&P-like return, and you don't have the ability to write calls, and you don't have a capital gain, maybe you wanna get out of it."

OK. So there you go. Jenny is not optimistic about AAPL and would sell. That's a trading call. But Jenny is also conceding that people in taxable accounts may have steep gains in AAPL and may be reluctant to sell simply because it would incur a large capital gain. Which gets into overall Fear of Taxes that this page has taken up other times. (There would be less Fear of Taxes if people built in a tax accrual for their capital gains, rather than seeing a 50% gain in their portfolio and trying to figure out some way to somehow keep it all.) (People's favorite solution to that seems to be, Lose money in something else ... which, um, really doesn't make any sense.)

Now, as for Jenny's comment about when to sell AAPL in a taxable account: "So you kinda need it to go down 15 to 30%, right?" ... We have no idea where Jenny is getting those numbers. Maybe it's something they teach in Advisor School? As if there's some kind of formula for people with big capital gains, that you would somehow "need" the stock to tumble 15-30% to make a sale cost-effective in some way ... honestly, we don't get it. (But then again, we don't know anything about anything.)

We think, in general, Kevin's approach is correct — trading decisions should not be contingent upon taxes. With a couple exceptions. If you've held a stock for 364 days with a gain and you decide to sell on Day 364 instead of waiting 2 more days, you're ... not making the greatest timing decision.

That type of decision is pretty clear cut. Here's where it gets tough: What if you've had a stock for 10 months and it's currently on fire and you think it may be "toppy." In an IRA, you'd sell. In your taxable account ... do you sell now and take a short-term gain ... or hang on for 2 more months and hope it doesn't give back the big run you're enjoying?

That would be a good one for Judge and Mel's panels to tackle.

Addressing AAPL tariffs, Jim said, "I'm not trying to be provocative, but this is kind of thuggish behavior. Apple has been told, today, 'Pay up.'"

Jenny: ‘I haven’t been cheering’

On Friday's (5/23) Halftime Report, Judge grilled Stephanie Link over what it'll take to get her to sell TGT, noting it's hard to take the "L."

"It's hard to take the 'L,' but that's not the reason why I'm not taking the 'L'," Stephanie said, and, in fact, while Stephanie did stumble over the very tricky double-negative there (explaining why something was NOT the reason she is NOT selling), she did recover impressively. Stephanie eventually said she's not taking the L "because I still believe in the brand and I still believe in the, um, enterprise value over the long term."

Actually, that stock has become very interesting. We have no idea why it has slid so much, or what it would take to get it going again. (This writer has no position in TGT.)

On the market in general, Jenny Harrington told Judge, "I haven't been cheering. Because I've been nervous. ... I think we could have 3 and a half more years of uncertainty."

But then Jenny admitted she's "fully invested." (Translation: Can say they were right regardless of whether the market goes up or down.) Jenny said, kind of like the comment at the beginning of "The Godfather," "I completely believe in America," and she advised viewers that they can do OK over the next 3 and a half years as long as they "don't get too despondent" about the "news bombs." (Translation: Everyone should've been buying hand over fist on April 4. As Jenny surely was.)

Kevin Simpson said he's been buying AXP for months, including in the morning at 282. Kevin also said he bought BA, for growth strategy because he can't buy it now for his dividend strategy, under the theory of "return to normalization." Stephanie Link said "the story is really just beginning" for BA.

Judge asked Jim Lebenthal how he pronounces "submariner." Jim said, "'Submareener' is the way Navy people say it. 'Submarriner' is the way non-Navy people say it."

Jenny still hasn't sold OGN, which she said weeks ago she was going to sell.

Barry actually wasn’t that far off

Every now and then, bold calls get forgotten on CNBC's Halftime Report.

So we thought it was worth revisiting the market outlook of Barry Bannister last fall, or specifically Nov. 7, when Judge said Barry was warning, "The train is approaching Crazy Town," and that there's only upside to the low 6,000s and downside to 5,250.

"Crazy Town," while it is funny and we give Barry credit for that one, really never happened. At least hasn't happened yet.

But ... in terms of pure numbers, Barry basically nailed it.

On Nov. 7, the S&P 500 closed at 5,973.10. That's still above where it is today.

After Nov. 7, the market spent 3 months grinding higher into the "low 6,000s." Then it found an excuse to plunge to actually below 5,250.

Prior to his Nov. 7 call, Barry last October had predicted stocks would "crash 25%" in 2025 from whatever peak they reached. Maybe what happened in early April is indeed a "crash." But it wasn't 25%, and we were only below 5,250 for maybe 2 weeks. That's hardly like October 1929.

Skeptics may say Barry's scenario would never have happened without the tariff tantrum. Barry may well argue that his prediction of a steep selloff did indeed come true.

That's what makes a market.

Stephanie still averaging down into UNH

Judge on Thursday's (5/22) Halftime Report curiously asked Stephanie Link, who joined but wasn't one of the panelists, if she has "regrets" about buying UNH on the way down.

Stephanie said no and that she even bought more Thursday and stressed it's not a "quick fix."

Stephanie said she's never seem the stock trade at this level, and assured viewers that she's "not looking for anything heroic at this point."

Honestly, Stephanie had a chance here to sell viewers on this trade, and her arguments really had nothing new. Weiss' recent suggestion of UNH being "dead money" is more convincing.

Judge already backpedaling
on his Eddy Cue warning

Back on Thursday's (5/23) Halftime Report after several days off this week (see below), Judge brought up Alphabet's Eddy Cue setback and recalled warning Alphabet long Jim Lebenthal about being too nonchalant about the news.

Judge on Thursday pointed out to Jim that "yours truly" suggested this can't be "so easily dismissed." Judge said Jim "that day, said, 'I'm not doing anything.'" Judge said GOOGL shares are up 15% since then.

Actually, what really happened a couple weeks ago was (hit PgDn a few times), Jim said he wouldn't have a "knee-jerk" reaction to the Eddy Cue news and cited how GOOGL slid on that Gemini news of a year ago (or farther back). Judge told Jim then that the "headline story" is the "definitive usage drop" in Google search, and Judge told Jim that Jim shouldn't be "flippant" about the gravity of the situation. Jim again said he doesn't "knee-jerk" his reactions.

So Thursday, after Judge (to his credit, we guess) ate a little crow (Alphabet has bounced, but we wonder if Judge isn't throwing in the towel a little early), Jim and Judge conceded "it's not over yet," but Jim stressed that it's Alphabet, "not a fly-by-night company."

Jim said GOOGL is better than "value tech" and is actually "growth at a superior price." Josh Brown said he doesn't disagree and that Alphabet "surprised some people to the upside" with a "fantastic event this week." (Wonder if it was as fantastic as the thing that Seth Rogen and Bryan Cranston put together in the season finale of "The Studio.")

Josh did suggest the "issue" of possibly a lid of the 17 Alphabet multiple. Jim pointed out that AAPL used to have an 11-13 multiple, now it's around 26. (Well, now Apple airs "The Studio.")

During Final Trades, Judge said Jim had a "bounce in his step" for Thursday's show and was hoping/expecting Judge to give him some credit, which Judge did.

Jim ‘not freakin’ out’

On Thursday's (5/22) Halftime Report, Judge revealed where he's been all week. With an observation about those consumer confidence surveys.

"I just got back from CNBC's CEO Summit out in Arizona, and to a person, you didn't really hear much gloom and doom out there at all," Judge said. "In fact, it was quite the opposite."

Josh Brown noted the 10-year yield is up 44% basis points in May, a "very dramatic move."

Josh said it seems to him like inflation is cooling, and the 20-year and 30-year yields are the "head fake."

But Shannon Saccocia cautioned that today's rates are rising on deficit concerns, not big economic growth. In a nice nod to traditional media, Judge said there are views in Thursday's "newspapers" that rates are moving because of expectations of "higher growth," not deficit fears. Shannon said the Fed right now is a "policy taker," not "policy maker."

Joe Terranova said yields are a "global question" and pointed to Japan. Joe concluded that "we're in this moment" where the rally is "on a pause" until this yield thing is resolved. Jim Lebenthal shrugged that the market was simply looking for a "reason to consolidate." Jim said he's "not freakin' out" about the 10-year.

JOET apparently perfectly mistimed FSLR

Judge on Thursday's (5/22) Halftime Report noted RUN was getting smashed and that Jim Chanos talked about his short in this name last week.

Joe Terranova observed, "The entire industry is, is in significant peril."

Judge said the JOET sold FSLR at the end of April; Joe said that "looks like the low right now." Joe said the JOET only had it for 90 days, and it "didn't work well for us." (According to Yahoo! Finance, FSLR was $167 at the end of January, $125 at the end of April, and $156 now.) (Oh well, like they say, timing is everything!)

Josh Brown said you might want to wait until Nancy Pelosi buys one of these solar stocks.

Stephanie Link bought more PANW, which is now one of her larger tech positions.

Josh singled out EQT, calling it the "2nd-best energy stock on the year." Joe seconded Josh's arguments in favor of the stock and added a few more arguments.

Adam Parker at the top of Closing Bell said people sorta want to buy stocks but are hesitant; "I feel like there's a lot of tension in, in the investment world right now."

Bryn: ‘Ignore P.E.’

Guest host Frank Holland on Wednesday's (5/21) Halftime Report asked Joe Terranova about TSLA's valuation, which brought a pair of cogent comments from the panel.

Joe impressively answered, "Valuation is something that generally I don't believe is really an accurate predictor of where the future price action is, is going to go." (Or he coulda just said, "Valuation doesn't predict anything.") Joe said there's a "multitude" of stocks with "single-digit valuations" that have gone "nowhere for years."

Bryn Talkington ramped it up a notch, bluntly advising viewers to "ignore P.E.," explaining, "it's completely arbitrary; it's like never gonna make you money looking at a P.E. whether it's 2 or 2,000."

Kari Firestone said P.E. "matters less in the case of Tesla."

OK. We can see Weiss showing up and demanding panelists declare "valuation doesn't matter." But Joe and Bryn are absolutely right — valuation doesn't predict stock movement. It does, however, "matter" on some level, in that it's the effect of the level of excitement that the market perceives of the company, and not the cause. You can try GoPro at maybe 150 (or whatever it was) or Ford at probably 3. Whichever you like.

Joe said he wouldn't be surprised to see TSLA make a run at its all-time high.

Honestly, we’re not really sure what CNBC’s beefed-up sports reporting team does except give an occasional estimate of the market value of a pro sports team that won't be sold for 25 years

Guest host Frank Holland on Wednesday's (5/21) Halftime Report asked Bryn Talkington about CNBC's Story of the Day (or Week) (or Day After), the David Faber-Elon interview on Tuesday afternoon (Bryn also opined Tuesday afternoon on Closing Bell after the interview).

Bryn said she owns a Tesla, as she's mentioned before, and the supervised driving 2 years ago "drove like a 16-year-old learning how to drive for the first time" and was "herky jerky," but now "it's so smooth, so intuitive."

Bryn said David noted an instance where a Tesla went through a red light, but for her, it's been "exceptional."

Bryn predicted people will pay $99 a month for self-driving and people will "continue to buy the dip" in the stock, though she again, like on Tuesday, suggested that $400 may be toppy. Frank noted BYD includes supervised self-driving with the price of the car, while Tesla plans subscription.

Bryn's commentary on TSLA (the stock) has regularly for years been excellent, by the way, so we're not going to question her suggestion that $400 may be some kind of top. (This writer has no position in TSLA.)

Steve: S&P over 5,500 is a ‘win’

On Wednesday’s Fast Money, no one seemed too scared about the day's selloff.

Steve Grasso said it's a "breather" and "if we stay stabilized over 5,500, that's a win." Steve also addressed his prediction a few weeks ago of the S&P returning to 6,000 in 4-6 months, noting, "we did it basically in a month." (Which is interesting for evaluation purposes. Steve was the only panelist touting a comeback of the S&P. But because he watered it down in terms of timeline, we're not that sure that it's really a great call.)

Karen Finerman said the selloff is "just math, if rates are higher." Karen claimed the national debt is "scary" but reaffirmed "I'm always long." Joe Moglia said the president of the United States "happens to be a narcissist."

‘We’re right where we were’

Joe Terranova at the top of Wednesday's (5/21) Halftime Report said the market is "basically pausing," and "I'm not really sure what people are afraid of."

But he said what people are "trying to identify" is that "2025 is a different market." (Later, guest host Frank Holland would ask Santoli about Joe's term of "unfamiliar market.")

"You have, finally, dispersion in terms of performance," Joe concluded, marveling at how many names in the JOET that are NOT in the Mag 7 are at 52-week highs.

Kari Firestone said the market's around the same level as the start of the year. "We're right where we were," Kari said.

Bryn Talkington said tariffs aren't even "remotely resolved," so the market likely won't "punch through" until "later this summer," so Bryn thinks the market will "rest for a bit." Joe said he doesn't disagree and said "I think we're gonna make a run at the all-time highs" but it's "up in the air" from there and maybe a "trap," which is kind of like predicting every possible scenario.

Frank doesn’t give Kari a chance to answer Joe’s UNH question

Guest host Frank Holland on Wednesday's (5/21) Halftime Report asked Kari Firestone about the latest headlines for UNH, which has somehow become one of the most interesting stocks. (This writer has no position in UNH.)

Kari said the "bad news" right now just isn't stopping and "the multiple (snicker) is down to 10." Kari said the stock has come "so far down" that over the next year, we'll "start to see things improve."

Joe Terranova asked Kari whether at some point, "does price loss supersede fundamental analysis," which we think is another way of asking "is it oversold?" Kari said, "Well sometimes it does," then Kari started to bring up BA, then Frank cut in, "We're gettin' on a tangent" and moved on to Bryn Talkington and DELL.

Bryn took a small position in IONQ. Frank said the stock moved up just as Bryn was talking about it.

Bryn, who had a great show, said crypto is benefitting from a "much friendlier environment" and suggested it's an alternative for "dollar debasement." Bryn said it's "easy" to buy the IBIT, but you can buy the actual bitcoin too. Joe chuckled, "It's probably the ultimate momentum trade" and "trades like a commodity."

Joe said PANW had tariff disruption this quarter; he says you should stay with the cybersecurity trade (this writer is long CRWD).

Joe said ZM revenue growth hasn't been there; it's been "frustrating."

Bryn offered silver as her Final Trade. Honestly, in all the years that CNBC has been airing at CNBCfix HQ, we don't think we've ever been excited about the silver trade.

Oh by the way,
at the end of the day ...

Jim Lebenthal had both a thanks and a correction to offer on Tuesday's (5/20) Halftime Report.

During a discussion of UNH, Stephanie Link said the stock may not keep surging but she likes it for the long term. Jim said he sold UNH April 4 at "about 546," though he said Steve Weiss was "very kind" for saying on the show last week that Jim sold UNH "in the 400s."

(So Weiss complimented Jim but in a shortchanging way.)

Josh Brown suggested the market could struggle a bit with retesting old highs. Jim offered, "Retail is no longer the dumb money." Jim said he's buying stocks even if the 10-year gets to 4.75%.

Brian Belski said "at the end of the day" (hopefully that one's not coming back) and that he sees the market as "significantly higher by year-end."

Belski even said with a straight face, "Golden Age of Stock-Picking."

After the A Block, we got an "oh by the way" from Belski.

Discussing TSLA, Josh noted how it makes huge bounces off of lows, but then Josh pointed out how much better UBER is doing than TSLA this year.

Josh said that Q1 earnings reports seemed to indicate that AI is more important to the market than tariffs are.

Jim said he wanted to talk about Alphabet, twice saying that it seems to him like "growth at a superb price."

Josh touted EBAY and said it's still 10% below its all-time high of October 2021. Josh said AXON has been "on fire."

Belski and Stephanie Link talked up BA. Jim again talked up the F-35.

Josh wasn't too enthusiastic when guest host Frank Holland brought up PFE. "There's almost no point in being invested here," Josh said. Belski owns it only in his "value" portfolio as a "contrarian name."

Not hot anymore

On Monday's (5/19) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss apparently enlisted Nikki Glaser to write some lines for him (OK, no way, his lines weren't that good), as Weiss knocked the "great big beautiful tariff deals" that will "do nothing" to bolster revenues.

Weiss also told guest host Frank Holland that there was a "very important ca- proclamation from Donald Trump himself about Taylor Swift not being hot anymore, so that set off the market."

Weiss said he's a buyer of the 10-year, that 4.5 is a "great rate."

In a bit of a speech that didn't have to be a speech, Joe Terranova said the rally can continue "if the bond market allows it." But he said that won't erase the "fiscal challenge" (snicker) the country faces.

Joe said he took a "3% loss" in the TLT.

Joe said people are "rebuilding" positions in semiconductors.

Jason Snipe suggested it'll be "kind of a trading-range market for sure in the next few months."

Bill Baruch joined remotely to talk about a new buy, EW. We got excited, because Bill has had a knack for great timing. But Bill started off explaining "we're underweight health care" (Zzzzzzzz). He said EW has been a "multi-year compounder" and could be an awakening "sleeping giant" now. Bill also mentioned "artificial intelligence" (snicker). Frank asked Bill if he's concerned about EW's estimate for a "10% tariff." Bill is "not really concerned."

Joe predicted WMT "will reclaim $100." Joe said if WMT raises prices, it'll be on the "non-necessities."

Jason said he likes LOW.

Jason sort of shrugged off the JPMorgan downgrade of NFLX but said it's a "reasonable call" given the run of the stock. (This writer is long NFLX.) Weiss yet again opined on NFLX and said it's his "largest position" that he'll have to cut back at some point. Weiss said "it will do well in a recession and also do well in a growth economy." Joe said NFLX holders should "maintain your position."

Karen Finerman buys DKS

Karen Finerman on Friday's (5/16) Fast Money said she bought DKS on Thursday. (During Final Trade, it sounded like she also bought it at the end of the day Friday, but we're not sure.)

Karen said DKS lost more in market value than what the deal is worth, and Karen suggested a couple scenarios in which there could be developments in the FL bidding but DKS doesn't go down. Karen said "I would much rather own Dick's here than Foot Locker at the same price on the hopes of a higher bid for Foot Locker."

It's an interesting trade, and one to keep an eye on. (This writer has no position in DKS but might give it a shot next week.)

Earlier, discussing the broad market on Closing Bell, Jeremy Siegel told Judge that this is "probably one of the most hated bull runs we've ever seen."

Bryn invokes Jack in
‘A Few Good Men’

On Friday's (5/16) Halftime Report, Bryn Talkington made a statement about consumer confidence.

"Those numbers — let me be crystal clear — are a counterindex. You should be buying when those numbers are weak."

Crystal.

Bryn said that going back 30 years, when consumer confidence numbers are this low, over the next 12 months, "the average return is 17 to 18%."

Steve Weiss countered, "I think you gotta be careful about that. Because, the real story for that is, consumer confidence usually dips when the economy's dipping, and then the Fed comes in and lowers rates. So that drives the market."

Bryn insisted "the data goes back to 1980 ... in general, it's been a very good signal to fade."

Honestly, we have no idea whether consumer confidence is a contraindicator as Bryn stated ... but we do know that, as far as Weiss' "real story," we've been hearing this consumer confidence number on CNBC for literally decades, and we have no idea whether it's a predictor of anything in the financial markets ... or whether it's even relevant ... to anything.

Panelists still comparing notes on who sold UNH the highest

Friday's (5/16) Halftime Report crew took up the subject of UNH, which is having a pretty bad week.

Kevin Simpson said he got stopped out of UNH. Kevin said he had a 6% position in February, sold 2% on Feb. 21 at 455 (gee, that was a great sale), and on Monday, "we took it down to 2%," selling at 389. Wednesday he sold it to 1% (we think that means he sold half of what was remaining); he said he'll be out completely Friday or Monday.

"I actually think it's very cheap here," said Steve Weiss, who thinks "the next quarter" or one after will be the "kitchen sink." But Weiss sold because "I don't think the stock's going anywhere."

Judge said "literally" there was a filing "5-6 minutes ago" about an insider purchase of UNH stock. In fact, that filing apparently boosted the stock for the day.

Stephanie Link dialed in to say "the stock is down 45% year to date (always a favorite metric of CNBCers), I think a lot of bad news is priced in." We were waiting for the "and oh by the way" ... we didn't QUITE get it, because Stephanie left off the "and," simply concluding, "oh by the way, the RSI, it's 12. That's crazy. Oversold."

Judge said, "Things can be cheap obviously for a reason." Judge said there were actually 3 insider buys of UNH. Rob Sechan said his shop is "looking to buy it" and previously "sold it at much higher levels a while back."

In a classy gesture, Weiss actually gave Jim Lebenthal (who wasn't on the show Friday) a "shout-out," saying Jim sold it "over 400."

Judge still won’t ask Weiss what ‘intermediate’ means

In the 10th minute of Friday's (5/16) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss again brought up "intermediate" (snicker), one of his favorite words of the past month.

Weiss actually claimed that CEOs aren't yet "willing to open up the pocketbook" and curiously said "In the short term, that's problematic for the market" ... even though Weiss has been saying all week that he's short-term bullish.

Rob Sechan said the CEO spending issue is a problem for the "intermediate term." Weiss said, "Well, short term and intermediate ... Short term, I'm still staying pretty much fully invested. Intermediate, I'm still very cautious." Yet again, neither Judge nor anyone else asked what "intermediate" means. When are we getting the recession that Weiss has been promising?

Rob: Market has a ‘huge put,’ either from Donald Trump or the Federal Reserve

Rob Sechan offered at the top of Friday's (5/16) Halftime Report, "I think the pain is, is certainly higher."

(That means he thinks stocks are going up.)

Rob said, "The worst of the tariffs are a little bit behind us." But Rob said there's "valuation concerns," so don't get "too seduced" (snicker).

Bryn Talkington said, "I think what's happened in the Middle East is just historic."

Judge insisted to Steve Weiss that it was retail who "hung in" and "came in" when the market was sliding a month ago. Weiss said "we're back to where we were last year" in terms of valuation, when the market was "gettin' a little shaky." So Weiss sees a "narrow trading range right now, absent some really good headlines."

Weiss said recession risks have "lessened," but he doesn't think you can "take it off the table." Nor can we take a "slowing economy" off the table, Weiss said.

Rob argued, "I still believe that there is a huge put, either (pronounced EYE-ther) by the Fed, or by Trump, on this market." Judge said, "I think retail- the retail investor, still believes that too."

Still another panelist recalls buying META in December 2022

Bryn Talkington on Friday's (5/16) Halftime Report revealed she sold TSLA August 23 $400 calls for $26; Bryn suggested there's resistance in the stock from 380-400.

Kevin Simpson said he bought AAPL on April 9 at 177. Kevin said, "A month ago — and that's when these professionals were buying." Kevin advised, "Don't go crazy chasing here."

CNBC's Dee Bosa said there might be questions about META's results from its AI spend. Rob Sechan questioned "is anybody surprised, given the complexity of their goals?" Rob said META has "executed unbelievably flawlessly" and revealed, "We bought it in December of '22; it's up nearly 450%. ... It is like building a supercar."

Judge cut in, saying that going back a few years, the META execution was "anything but" flawless. Steve Weiss said timing delays with tech products are something to be bought. Kevin Simpson said, "If you get a selloff in Meta, you should buy it."

Weiss has already ditched the XLE, his over-the-weekend trade. He said he didn't count on "progress" with Iran that could be depressing the oil market. Bryn said "Trump wants energy low. It's great for inflation."

Kevin bought KO (Zzzzzzzzz) and listed about 6 reasons; we're not really sure why. Kevin bought CSCO on Wednesday at 61. Kevin sold TRGP.

Jenny’s talking about the same old permabearishness; Joe’s talking about all-time highs

Early into Thursday's (5/15) Halftime Report, Jenny Harrington actually claimed that she's somehow "more uncomfortable" now than she was a week ago.

(Quick tangent — we'd much rather be talking about whether Jessica Chastain or Amy Adams would be playing Jenny in the movie ... either one would be a great choice ... but whatever.)

"However you cut it — however you cut it — tariffs have brought more uncertainty into our world," Jenny said.

Jenny claims "massive uncertainty" doesn't support a market at 21 times. But of course, "Here's the irony, maybe: I'm still fully invested." (Um, actually it's not "irony" ... it's the Weiss tactic of claiming whenever it's down that you've been skeptical but when it goes up that you're fully invested.)

Jenny claimed Thursday's market was a "nonsensical return in the AI trade." Josh Brown, though, wondered if it's "nonsensical" given those stocks' stellar earnings reports.

Jim Lebenthal cut in to say "don't lose sight of" the AI spending out of the Humain/Saudi Arabia announcement. Joe Terranova wondered why, if the market expected 30% tariffs on China at the beginning of the year, and we're at 30% now, the market wouldn't pick up where it left off.

Josh said it could turn out to be a "false rally," but the Nasdaq's had an "incredible rally"; Josh said he was "as bearish as anyone on this desk, in April," then the Mag 7 earnings came out.

After all that, Judge told Jenny that he doesn't see how she can "make a case today that we're worse off than we were a week ago." Jenny said, "The worse off is on valuation" (snicker) and again harped on this supposedly magic hike in multiple from 21 to 23 (even though all of her stocks are lower multiples).

Joe said momentum is suggesting "a run at the all-time high," but he's not sure there will be a breakout from there. Jim said if we set new highs, "FOMO comes in, and it comes in hard." Joe cautioned, "That might be a trap."

Joe wondered if Josh should be concerned about a "growth scare" over 3-6 months. Josh said, "How do you get a growth scare when the largest companies in the stock market are defensive?" Josh said we may have to accept that it's no longer a "cyclical" market. (That's a very interesting point. This page kind of began to assume this market is never going to be cyclical again once we saw how often the checks went out in 2020-21.)

Judge said at the top of the show that the "bias" he's hearing from people is that stocks can keep going up. Josh said the market will probably look through upcoming blips of inflation. Joe suggested the "casualty" risk from tariffs isn't so much inflation but "margin compression."

Joe reiterated his prediction of WMT being a "trillion-dollar company." Joe said he's "absolutely" maintaining his position.

Jim talked up buying more CSCO.

Steve Weiss, it figures, wasn't on Thursday's program. Judge brought up UNH and said Mizuho said it could get dropped from the Dow; Judge said Weiss is "fully out" but was "unable to join us today" (wonder why). Judge said another UNH defender, Stephanie Link, "wants to" buy more but isn't doing anything Thursday. Joe crowed about the JOET selling UNH 18 months ago (an eternity) and how it's got LLY.

On Fast Money, Guy Adami said DKS traded "right up to a downtrend line" in place for 4 years. Guy said Karen Finerman, who wasn't on Thursday's show, "thinks there might be another bidder out there." Tim Seymour said, "I think the deal goes through."

Fast Money crew delivers great instant analysis on DKS-FL

After the A Block on Wednesday's (5/14) Fast Money, guest host Dom Chu reported that the Wall Street Journal is reporting that DKS is close to a deal to buy FL.

Moments such as these are often the finest hours of Fast Money, when panelists react in real-time to breaking news and (far more often than not) cogently assess what it means for the stocks involved, and maybe more.

Wednesday's crew, including guest host Dom, more than lived up to that lofty standard.

Karen Finerman said "Mary Dillon came in with great fanfare." Karen said "it's not crazy expensive," so it "could be profitable" for DKS. Tim Seymour offered, "I'm just trying to understand what the strategic vision is" for DKS. Karen pointed out that a deal would give DKS "more leverage" with NKE and other shoemakers.

Steve Grasso agreed that DKS would add "leverage" by buying FL, and there would be "a lot more efficiencies" from dealing with the overlapping stores, so it's a "positive" for DKS; he'd "stay long" the name or "dabble" in it if not long already.

Karen said Mary Dillon is a "great operator," but this is "not a tremendous outcome" of her tenure at FL.

Tim Seymour suggested this deal might not have even been contemplated before the tariff situation.

So there you go. Tim makes a great point. However, we think Karen's and Steve's are even stronger; this would give DKS some added leverage with suppliers of a key product.

Einhorn on trade deficits: ‘I don’t understand what this problem is that we’re even trying to address’

Whatever his performance on Wednesday's (5/14) Halftime, Judge's real interest was in his Ira Sohn interviews later in the day on Closing Bell.

David Einhorn, the last big guest, at first talked about opportunities in European stocks (Zzzzzz). Then things got more interesting, as David said there was "terrorizing" of people and entities linked to Democratic voters, and a "chill" on businesses frequented by Democrats, and he's looked for stocks in that space to short.

Judge wondered if David could identify specific stocks for that purpose. David wouldn't give names but mentioned DKS as the opposite type of name, one that would have no trouble with this political environment, and suggested companies matching the opposite description can also be found.

Then things really got good when David stated, "The trade deficit, I've never understood why it's even that big of a problem in the first place. The idea that if some country is selling us goods, and we're getting the goods, that we're somehow being cheated for paying for those goods, I don't understand that dynamic. ... I don't understand what this problem is that we're even trying to address."

(Actually, we could fill him in a bit there ... The trade deficit was the tactic for quantifying the offshoring of jobs in the '70s and '80s, so that people complaining about that practice — and it's fine to complain about it — could attach some kind of numerical loss to it that may not actually be relevant to the problem in question.)

Earlier, Jim Chanos was on, with a rehashing of a tired theory. Judge told Chanos, "I was a little bit surprised, I have to say, when I found out that you're still short Tesla." Chanos said, "We have a big portfolio, so we have a lot of stocks we're short." Judge wasn't buying that rationale. Chanos said its earnings and revenues are declining while valuation is increasing on robotaxi hopes.

Both Chanos and Einhorn pooh-poohed how much money DOGE has actually saved.

Earlier, Sully on Power Lunch said Brad Gerstner's Invest America $1,000 accounts are part of the House GOP's tax bill.

Didn’t hear ‘intermediate’
or ‘recession’

Joe Terranova declared at the top of Wednesday's (5/14) Halftime Report, "The momentum in the near term points towards a run at the all-time highs for sure."

Joe said there's been a "change of possession" in the market (that's correct, a football term, not something related to the ending of "The Exorcist"), which means, "defense is off the field, and now here comes the offense." (Or put another more common way, it's risk-on, not risk-off.)

Bryn Talkington said we're in a "known known environment." Bryn said, like Joe, that semis can run, and so can financial management companies.

Steve Weiss and Judge revealed that Weiss in the last few weeks has bought back AMZN and NVDA. Weiss claimed he was "selling 'em at the highs" recently and that buying them back much lower "is how traders make money in the market."

Judge complained, "Weiss, you didn't tell us about this yesterday. Why didn't you tell us about it yesterday? April 25th to May 1st, you- you bought back Amazon and Nvidia."

Weiss said "a lot's gonna depend on what happens after the 90-day window closes," then conceded there's been "almost a complete give-up on the tariff moves, wisely, that Trump initiated." But Weiss said there's always "unsureness" (sic) of what this administration will do, so "you still have to be cautious in the market" (as opposed to all those other times when people recommend throwing darts at boards).

Jason Snipe said AMZN "warrants continued buying." Judge got into a semantical conversation with Weiss about his "core positions"; Weiss said AMZN is not one of them though it's a "sizable position" (Zzzzzzzz). Weiss said he likes AMZN but it's never cheap and he's got concerns about cloud and CEOs' enterprise spending.

Weiss explained that Donald Trump's negotiating strategy is to keep the people on the other end of the table "unsteady," but the downside to doing that is that allies and associates also wonder what's going on.

Bryn sold HOOD 50 calls

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (5/14) Halftime Report said MSFT is the closest Mag 7 stock to an all-time high. Steve Weiss said he owns MSFT and isn't selling but doesn't think it deserves the multiple it's got. Weiss said this is a "go-go period." (That's not what he was saying a week ago, and the weeks prior to that.)

Weiss said of NVDA, "I'm out as it gets to 140" because chips from "the big hyperscalers" will start "coming into the market."

Jason Snipe noted NVDA is back to flat for the year.

Meanwhile, Bryn Talkington suggested owning names such as KKR and APO as a "good way" to get exposure to private equity; they're "a levered way to play the economy globally." Weiss pointed out how we're still "waiting" for the "IPO cycle" to finally happen. But Weiss said "it's only a matter of time" (we've heard that for years) until names such as APO and KKR "click in."

Joe said IBKR was "one of my better purchases" in the last month or so. (Or put another way, anything people were buying April 8 has gone up; the problem was, most people (despite what some say on CNBC) 1) didn't have a full warehouse of dry powder to spend on stocks at that time and/or 2) didn't trust that the bottom really was in.)

Judge said Goldman reiterated a buy on HOOD. Bryn owns it and said it's on a "monster move" and suggested "Goldman's just following price." But Bryn revealed actually selling calls at 50 that expire next Friday. (Those were a great buy.) Bryn thinks HOOD is "very overbought right now," and she wouldn't buy now.

Remember when Twitter/X and the blue checkmark was the biggest story in the news cycle?

On Wednesday's (5/14) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss said he bought more UNH (he just can't resist), despite saying a day ago that it's dead money for a while.

He said he bought because it got "cut by a lot of firms, which doesn't make a lot of sense."

Weiss sold VRTX, a stock that gets mentioned all the time that nobody really cares about (Zzzzzzz). Jason Snipe called ABBV a "core name" for him.

Judge and Joe Terranova noted how WMT has had a choppy year. Joe said a $1 trillion market cap is "exactly where they're going."

Judge said Telsey pinned a 145 on TJX. Joe said, "This stock does not get enough respect," saying it's 3 or 4 times the size of TGT.

Judge credited Bryn Talkington for having the "guts" to buy NKE while everyone hated it. Bryn said she bought that name and RH; "I felt really, really solid that what Howard Lutnick was saying, we're all gonna make iPhones and make shoes, was never gonna happen."

Joe's "maintaining" a position in BABA and thinks it could make a run at a ... first he said "all-time high" of 148, which sounded really low ... then he clarified to say "1-year high."

Joe said he's traded EQT for years, then played cost-basis hero, saying "most recently," he got into it in the "mid-30s." Bryn said she thinks oil stocks will struggle this year.

Joe said at the end of the show that Jim Lebenthal (who wasn't on the show) was happy that Joe mentioned Jim's name in regard to C.

Judge once again won’t ask Weiss what ‘intermediate term’ means despite roasting Weiss over recent ghastly market calls

What would've been the whole A Block of Tuesday's (5/13) Halftime Report went to the Donald Trump speech.

After it ended, Judge quickly went to Steve Weiss, who Judge noted has been "overwhelmingly negative (snicker) on this market."

Weiss at first conceded his current recession odds are lower than a week ago, but then — as this page predicted — he claimed "Short term, I'm bullish on the market" and have "virtually no cash."

It's the "intermediate term" where Weiss believes "the recession comes into play."

And it's the "intermediate term" that Judge avoids like the plague, declining to ask one of his panelists what in the world kind of time frame is "intermediate term."

Weiss admitted, "I'll hold on to this exposure for a while" (translation: He's actually bullish, despite what he says). Weiss noted that on the tariff front, we only just got back to "where we were" with China and the U.K.

Weiss concluded, "As an investor, you can't get stuck in a position and a viewpoint," even though that's exactly what he did for weeks.

A little later, Judge brought up UNH, a recent favorite stock of Weiss, and asked Weiss, "What were you thinkin'?"

Weiss said "thank God it's not a core position at this point." Judge chuckled, "I don't care what it is, man" and asked why Weiss doesn't just unload it.

"It's still the world's largest insurance company," Weiss said, and he's got "tremendous respect" for the execs. Even so, Weiss admitted, "It's dead money here for sure, for a while."

Hopefully we'll hear soon about exactly where in the "intermediate" this recession is coming.

Jim still thinks streaming is a great business

On Tuesday's (5/13) Halftime, Judge told Josh Brown that Ed Yardeni has hiked his S&P target from 6,000 to 6,500. Josh chuckled, "Is any of that helpful? They're just marking to market."

Amy Raskin suggested tariffs may have pulled forward economic activity, and the tax bill is toeing a "fine line" in that it needs to be stimulative but can't affect yields negatively. Jim Lebenthal said he thinks there has been some "pull forward," but what he fears the most is that CEOs start to pull back (snicker).

Jim trumpeted DIS' earnings report and said, "The growth engine going forward is going to be streaming." (Nothing about the company being on "the balls of their feet.") Amy said she's actually sold DIS recently before the rally; "it was a bad sale."

Josh Brown bought more TOST; we've been hearing about that one off and on forever.

Steve Weiss said he bought XLE on Friday. He thinks he can get "another 20% out of it."

Tim Seymour on tariff truce: ‘What was this all about?’ (a/k/a Karen says ‘both’ blinked)

On Monday's (5/12) Fast Money, panelists dove in to the U.S.-China tariff agreement.

Tim Seymour noted the round trip certain tariffs have taken in the last 6 weeks and offered, "I'm really wondering what- what was this all about. Um, therefore I'm not even sure what has happened yet."

(Careful, Tim — people may try to vote you into office.)

Karen Finerman said she's "pleasantly surprised" and offered with more certainty, "China sort of blinked, actually. And we blinked." Tim wondered "Who blinked?" and Karen said, "We both did. We both did."

Tom Lee: Evidence was in the high-yield market

Unfortunately, Tom Lee wasn't on Monday's (5/12) Halftime Report.

But he was on Power Lunch, when Sully said this has been "one of the fastest stock recoveries in history" (something, um, Weiss failed to notice).

Sully said Tom could take a "victory lap" but hadn't. Tom gave Sully a few reasons why the market has done well since early April, the first one being, "The high yield market never confirmed the panic that we were seeing from economists about the economy."

When are we gonna hear from Steve ‘This time it’s different’ Weiss?

It's not often that Judge is making market calls, but viewers of Monday's (5/12) Halftime Report heard one when Judge observed, "The easy money has probably already been made."

(We wonder where that leaves Weiss, who wasn't on Monday's show ... but whose bear case has only gotten more emphatic the farther we get from the first week of April.)

Forever bull Stephanie Link insisted there's still room for "catch-up."

Joe Terranova said people on CNBC will offer "various analogies" about the market, but Joe said he'll stick with "mercurial," insisting he's been "using it all along."

Joe said sentiment is lagging way behind momentum. Joe noted NFLX being down and said it appears there's a "rotation" in the market. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Jim Lebenthal said, "I'm positioned in the market with cyclicals" and advised viewers, "Please don't time the market." (Too late for that with Weiss, who is going to say something like, "See I TOLD ya I was long, it's just the INTERMEDIATE TERM (which I won't identify) where we're going into recession!!!!!")

Judge observed that "this seemed like a fairly unprecedented situation" for investors in that it was like a "self-inflicted wound" that made people wonder, "they seem intent on wrecking it."

Jim admitted, "Honestly, I really at one point did think maybe he just wants to wreck the economy, just to wreck it." But Jim said, "Every crisis has its own unique flavor."

Joe said there's a "very clear path" and that "people are gonna try and fight this move higher." Joe said "calls for 4,000" are "unrealistic," and "I'd be surprised if we don't take a run towards new highs."

On the Trump-Tim Cook call, CNBC's Steve Kovach reported (as he did all day long on other shows), "Trump has been saying this for years, including in his first term, that Apple plans to build factories here, and then those factories never actually materialize."

Joe said AAPL "should raise prices; it's the Netflix model, it's the Chipotle model. They have pricing power. I don't think people are gonna flinch at all if they actually go and raise the price."

Joe said that yields could be the "one challenge" to the market.

Judge said Mike Mayo says JPM could be the first $1 trillion market cap bank.

Jim said "companies should rotate back to the balls of their feet" (snicker).

Lehman employee demanded more money from Weiss at a critical time — and got it

Guest host Frank Holland opened Friday's (5/9) Halftime Report telling Jim Lebenthal that Michael Hartnett says the market rebound is "likely over."

Jim said the rebound has been so big that such an opinion is not "too provocative a statement." Jim said the market would like to see "meaningful progress" on reducing or eliminating reciprocal tariffs.

Steve Weiss, who wasn't at Post 9 to hector Jim in person, joined remotely in a conference room in a golf shirt and said the market in the near term is in an "OK place," his new refrain. But he said we're "not" OK "intermediate-term"; Frank, like Judge, didn't ask what "intermediate term" means.

Weiss suggested the market may be developing "immunity" to trade-war headlines; he said the U.K. deal was not "impressive." He said he expects to hear trade details announced, but they take "years" to be completed. Weiss said the economy can't really deal with 10% tariffs.

Kevin Simpson said he's selling rips, even though, "May 9th feels a hundred times better than it did on April 9th."

Jim said the president's in a "negotiating phase" but unlike Weiss, Jim thinks "10% is something the world can live with," while "80% is just a complete non-starter." Jim told Frank that 60% is a "nonsensical number."

Weiss said, "I wouldn't listen to Trump saying buy stocks. I mean, his analysis is nonexistent. Just like, you meet with Jon Voight, he complains about Hollywood, all of a sudden, an executive order, 100% tariff on films."

Weiss further stated, "When I was running a large, uh, division at Lehman Brothers, I had somebody during a critical time come to me and say 'I'm leaving,' hold me up for more money. You know what I did? I paid them more money, and then, I took note of that, and eventually, I fired that person. That's what our trading partners are gonna do for us. They are not gonna foget this."

Weiss said he's not saying that the "end goals" with tariffs or cutting "the incredible bloat in the government" aren't good. It's just that "the execution is flawed" and may be "more damaging" than the problem. Frank clarified that Donald Trump met not just with Jon Voight but Mel Gibson and Scott Baio.

No one is accused of being too ‘flippant’ about Alphabet search

Kevin Simpson on Friday's (5/9) Halftime Report said he trimmed Alphabet. He said there's been a "decline" in ad dollars for Google.

Guest host Frank Holland said "a lot of people" have made an Eastman Kodak analogy to Google, but Google has a "quote-unquote digital camera" in the form of Gemini. Kevin said that's true that it's not Eastman Kodak but it'll still be less ad revenue.

Jim Lebenthal, who was warned by Judge this week not to be too "flippant" about this news (see below), said the question is "whether it's priced in or not." Jim asserted, "We're not gonna know."

Jim said a "better analogy" than Kodak is Xerox. But Jim said Alphabet will "stay relevant." Jim said Alphabet will adapt as META did to mobile and Apple's operating system changes.

Frank asked Brenda Vingiello why Alphabet can't just buy an AI company. Brenda said the company won't "sit still," and that "Gemini is really highly respected" (um, it's not), even though "I don't think the company has done a good job of really getting it out there and having people use it."

Kevin bought PLTR at 109; he said he can "bring in massive premium" writing covered calls.

Steve Weiss said of PLTR, he loves the company, he just can't "come to grips" with the valuation. Weiss said he thought the valuation was high at $30.

Jim actually buys more CLF

In the category of head-scratcher — no, it's beyond "head-scratcher" at this point — Jim Lebenthal is somehow actually buying more CLF.

Jim admitted this new development on Friday's (5/9) Halftime but said he's only buying in his personal account; "I'm not buying this for clients."

Jim said what should've been a growth story is now a "turnaround story." Jim affirmed, "I do have a lot of faith in management," hardly a surprise, though he thinks it'll "take time." (What happend to his recent prediction about if CLF gets a bunch of earnings and if CLF gets a higher multiple, then it's a $27 stock.)

Kevin Simpson sold VRTX, a stock that's never sounded interesting whenever someone on the show mentions it. Brenda Vingiello bought PWR. Brenda said Zoetis just wasn't getting the job done in her portfolio.

Brenda sold ADBE. Brenda bought TGT recently. Steve Weiss said TGT just doesn't seem worth the "headache." Weiss claimed, as he generally always does, rain or shine, that there's "2/3 of the country living paycheck to paycheck."

Guest host Frank Holland asked Weiss to talk about buying the IBIT, even though Weiss talked about it a day earlier.

Weiss during his Final Trade said he'd like to do a "public service" by doing an "intervention" for Jim on CLF.

Judge claims conclave took 3 days when it actually started Wednesday

Fairly early into Thursday's (5/8) Halftime Report, Judge cut to breaking news from the Vatican.

Pippa Stevens said that white smoke was emanating from the chimney, then Judge claimed "3rd time's the charm" after a "couple days of black smoke," even though the conclave was only into its 2nd day.

Bill suggests White House may try to actually pull back 2025 market returns so they happen in 2026

Bill Baruch on Thursday's (5/8) Halftime Report was basically making a lot of bullish arguments for the stock market. Bill said "sentiment is bad," then he spoke of the market drops in early April and said "a lot of this has already been kitchen-sinked" and that people have been "offsides."

But then, tempering his own enthusiasm, Bill suggested ... and Bill must've been having lunch at Burger King, because this was a Whopper ... that maybe what would "contain" the market is that the White House doesn't want runaway gains in 2025 "because 2026 is the midterms," and the way to get 25-30% gains in 2026 ahead of the elections is NOT gaining 10, 15, 20% in 2025.

Steve Weiss immediately scoffed "that's ridiculous" and that the White House "is not gonna manage the market," get a certain percent now and a certain percent later.

Weiss is talking to everyone who apparently knows whether we’re having a recession (but he didn’t talk to Jerome Powell, who doesn’t seem to think so)

Steve Weiss stayed way too long in the Spring 2025 Bear Camp, and Judge has noticed.

Judge on Thursday's (5/8) Halftime bluntly told Weiss, "This market's up a bunch, man."

Trying to claim, as he always does during bullish weeks/months, that he's been bullish all along, Weiss said he said last week that "the short term, the market's going up; the intermediate term, the market's going down because we are going into recession."

Weiss insisted he "caught quite a bit" of the recent upward move and "I've actually done quite well, uh, over this period."

Judge wondered why Weiss is "so convinced" about a recession. Weiss said, "Because unlike reacting to news and reacting to momentum in the market, I'm actually talking to CEOs, I'm talking to heads of private equity firms. I'm talking to companies that I'm involved in, privately invested in. You know, I sit on the board. Things are frozen. CEOs are not investing in their business."

Weiss implied markets have been buoyed by the "massive rush" to buy stuff to stock shelves "before the tariffs hit." Weiss said supply chains aren't "frozen" like in COVID but are "very, very slow" and made some point about switching from China to India that didn't make much sense as it (maybe) pertains to the current market.

Judge insisted "we've gotten more guidance than maybe we thought." Of course Weiss disagreed.

Judge said, "Weiss — you're gonna argue with me no matter what I say. So I'm just gonna say it."

Weiss said, "No I'm gonna correct you when-"

Judge said, "No, no, no ... We're not gonna do this again."

Judge said the assumption was that guidance would be "terrible" and earnings wouldn't be this good. Weiss said "there is no disagreement on the quarter. The disagreement is moving forward. Again let me repeat — I'm long the market. Because the short term momentum's gonna continue."

Weiss conceded Josh Brown's point that "people aren't gonna lose their jobs" because replacing labor is too costly. But then Weiss said he'll "commiserate" with Ken Griffin and Paul Tudor Jones, "with all the others who see what I see. So, they're all idiots, we're all wrong."

Judge said, "Who said that they're idiots?"

"Well apparently you're discounting what they're saying," Weiss said, adding "you don't buy into it. You think it's gonna keep going and going, going."

Judge said "I didn't say that it's gonna keep going, and going, going, the only point I was making-"

Weiss said, "So we have no disagreement."

Judge said it's "gone I think a little bit better than many had- had feared that it would."

Weiss said, "Undoubtedly. That's the story of momentum."

Nobody on Thursday sounds too ‘flippant’ about the Alphabet news

Judge in the 19th minute of Thursday's (5/8) Halftime Report mentioned "Eddy Cue."

Steve Weiss said the "primary use case" for AI is search, and it's "unquestionable" that Alphabet's search market share is going down. Bill Baruch said it's not "new news" (prompting a rebuttal from Judge) that Google searches may decline. He trimmed Alphabet Monday but didn't sound as dire about the stock as others do.

Josh Brown said of the overall market that we're now getting "positive headlines" and not the "saber rattling" and "new demands."

Kari Firestone said the market will go higher "if the news flow is good."

Weiss bought even more NFLX, which was already his largest position. (This writer is long NFLX.) Weiss conceded it could get "overvalued." This page agrees with every bullish argument Weiss made/makes for the stock; the only thing is, maybe at some point, it becomes the dreaded "crowded trade."

Bill Baruch bought FAST with a "starter position." Weiss bought more FTAI. Weiss is back in IBIT. Bill owns it too.

Judge warns Jim about being too ‘flippant’ about the Alphabet news

Early on Wednesday's (5/7) Halftime Report, Judge said "the story of the day" was GOOGL’s drop, and boy was he right about that.

Judge said the drop was attributable to Eddy Cue's search comments.

Jim Lebenthal, who owns Alphabet, said he's inclined to "hold through this" and is "careful about knee-jerking one way or the other."

Jim pointed to when there was a problem with Gemini a couple years ago and the stock got "absolutely clobbered." Judge said that was a "bit of a different incident" and not like the "existential threat" that apparently is in the works today. Jim insisted that the Gemini issue a couple years ago "absolutely" was called an existential threat and the stock was down to the mid-90s.

Joe Terranova though said Wednesday's news is a "big deal" as it's about the "cash cow." Josh Brown said it's "extremely significant" and "Joe is right" and "Jim will eventually come around to this point of view."

Josh said Google won't disappear, but the ad "duopoly" of Meta and Google is "in question."

Josh said "the Gen Zs are going to ChatGPT first," they don't want a "treasure hunt," just an "answer."

Josh said DuckDuckGo and Bing are "not the competitors" for Google; rather it's the "standalone, uh, uh, AI services," in which, according to Josh, "the results are getting better."

Josh added, "It reminds me of PayPal, but on a much bigger scale."

CNBC's Steve Kovach stressed that the GOOGL story is "usage falling."

Shannon Saccocia said "57% of Alphabet's revenue is search." Jim insisted it's "not the first time" Google has faced concerns about search.

Judge told Jim that the "headline story" is the "definitive usage drop" in Google search, and Judge told Jim that Jim shouldn't be "flippant" about the gravity of the situation. Jim again said he doesn't "knee-jerk" his reactions and he's actually more concerned about the ramifications of the news to AAPL, not GOOGL.

Jim said he bought AAPL at 189. Joe said AAPL got added to the JOET, but, absolving himself, stated, "I had some questions surrounding the fundamentals when it did that." Joe actually said that for Alphabet, "Maybe in a worse-case scenario, this is more like Motorola." Joe suggested an Alphabet breakup might be the best thing for shareholders.

Judge told Josh that "someone we work with" was likening the AAPL-GOOGL news to DIS mentioning "cord-cutting" in 2015, "and that stock has not been the same since." Josh called that a "fantastic example" and "perfect analogy" and wondered if it was Becky Quick. Judge said the analogy did not come from Becky Quick. Then Joe said "obviously I'm joking" about the Motorola reference. (It didn't actually sound like it.)

Joe asserted that "it seems as though the Mag 7 is just beginning to really deteriorate."

Josh said not to overlook the importance of "travel-related search" for Google.

Josh says the BRK-A succession has hung over the stock, then says it hasn’t really mattered because the stock’s done great anyway

There was better news for Alphabet on Wednesday (5/7) when, late into the Halftime Report, Dee Bosa suggested it could put the squeeze to UBER.

Dee made some interesting observations about how Waymo or Tesla could develop or expand their own platforms for hailing rides. Josh Brown insisted that consumers don't want "10 different mobility apps," saying the consumer only cares about "price, convenience and speed," and that UBER will be the "hub" of ride-hailing apps.

Dee pointed out that not many companies have the money and resources to do what Tesla and Google are doing, and if Waymo expands its reach, it could be a "significant threat" to UBER.

Josh finally unloaded RDDT (despite saying for months that it's got ALL this writing that AI is going to use) (which, um, isn't exactly Hemingway).

Josh said the Berkshire succession plan is "as good ... as I have ever seen executed anywhere." (Translation: Not like how Bob handed over the reins at DIS.)

The funny thing about Josh's Berkshire praise is that no one mentioned what a (current) issue this is for DIS. (Translation: Bob will probably be getting another contract.) Jim Lebenthal talked up the DIS report and, as he always does, gushed about Disney's streaming. Jim curiously said, "Streaming is rapidly replacing cord-cutting." Joe Terranova said of DIS, "I like what I see here." (On Fast Money, Steve Grasso said he'd buy DIS over NFLX.) (This writer is long NFLX.)

Josh talked up CRWD (this writer is long CRWD) and said that traders can look at 390.

On Closing Bell, Jeffrey Gundlach, who was actually at the NYSE, brought up his favorite reference, "Mr. Magoo." (Who's a Rutgers alum.)

‘Some Peter Navarro isolationist viewpoint that none of us in America have’

The A Block of Tuesday's (5/6) Halftime Report got partially preempted by Donald Trump's remarks in the Oval Office, but not before Judge's fully stocked panel offered a few thoughts on the stock market.

"I think we're unfortunately in a wait-and-see mode," said Malcolm Ethridge.

Jenny Harrington asserted that we're in an "uncomfortable spot" and that the market isn't even pricing in low growth and insisted "nothing's better since April 2nd."

Judge pushed back that the employment report indicated a "pretty darn resilient economy." Jenny said that's not better, "It's just not worse."

Judge said "the consensus" was that things were getting worse. Jenny said that "every bit of data that we're looking at is pretty stale."

Judge aired a clip of Paul Tudor Jones on Squawk Box calling even reduced tariffs the "largest tax increase since the '60s" and saying something about "new lows."

Bryn Talkington argued that tariffs are a "direct tax on Main Street." Bryn even apparently is keeping score with her own tariff chart.

Judge and Bryn noted Scott Bessent's claim of having "asymmetric" information that everyone else doesn't have. "He should!" Judge chuckled.

Bryn said she doesn't think we'll "remotely" get to Paul Tudor Jones' potential dire scenario. "Who's gonna short this market," Bryn wondered, suggesting "the energy is actually to the upside."

Bryn said members of Congress want to get elected and "they're not gonna let Trump have emergency authority and torpedo the economy for some Peter Navarro isolationist viewpoint that none of us in America have."

And if Bryn isn't careful, some people will be electing her to office.

(Actually, let's rephrase that: BRYN, HAVE YOU THOUGHT ABOUT RUNNING?!!??!!?)

Malcolm made the case that maybe utilities are no longer considered as safe as Big Tech.

Judge cut into his own program to show Donald Trump's remarks in the Oval Office and suggested the headline is about the fact there's no talks with China. Judge said the U.S.-Canada relationship has been "extremely contentious."

After those remarks, Steve Liesman said M&A had its worst month since 2009. Steve said the Fed doesn't have a "good choice," but "only the least bad ones." Judge, who was Mr. Sanguine during the show, suggested Powell has "the luxury of patience" and "they say patient- patience is a virtue for a reason" (snicker).

Funny we haven’t heard the Rule of 40 applied to an underperforming company

Bill Baruch joined Tuesday's (5/6) Halftime Report midway through the show to talk about trimming Alphabet (we usually just use the company name rather than ticker because there are a couple similar tickers and we don't want to bother to verify which one they're talking about), AAPL, NVDA, AVGO.

"We're not bearish per se (snicker)," Bill told Judge, explaining the market "ran up" to resistance a week ago, and the Justice Department is a "headwind" for Alphabet, and the EU (snicker) is a headwind for Apple and Google.

Judge questioned Bill buying TSLA; Bill thinks it'll have a better 2nd half of the year.

Bryn Talkington took up the PLTR plunge. Judge said it was "not a bad report." Bryn said the stock made a "classic double top." Bryn said it's traded in "nosebleed territory," but she cited "the Rule of 40," which is to take the year-over-year revenues (39%) and add it to operating margins, and if it's over 40, it's "a great company," and PLTR is 83. Bryn suggested "the mid-80s" apparently as a possible landing spot.

Judge said UBS reiterated a buy for NFLX. Jason Snipe said it's seen as a "safe haven" in this market. (Imagine NFLX considered a "safe haven" 10 years ago.) (This writer is long NFLX.)

Longtime Halftime/Fast Money guest Richard Fisher, who offers regular, excellent commentary about the Federal Reserve, joined Tuesday's Fast Money to preview the Fed decision. Mel called him "Richard" 5-6 times (literally), however, Dan Nathan called him "Dick" and Michael Schumacher referred to "Dick Fisher." Guy Adami called him "Mr. Fisher."

Tariff threat to Hollywood isn’t clear whether it’s only ‘film’ or film and TV

Laura Martin is one of the best analysts on CNBC and is always one of our favorites to see.

Laura didn't disappoint on Monday's (5/5) Fast Money; her description of what Hollywood tariffs could mean deserves an Emmy.

Laura first stressed the importance of the word "films," as in, regarding Donald Trump's social media post, "He might not be making a distinction between TV and films." Laura said more than others, "Netflix gets hurt a lot," because "about 20%" of NFLX's "total content spending" is on "films," and "80% of that is done outside the U.S." (This writer is long NFLX.)

"The more important point," Laura continued, is that "this pivots economic priority to user-generated content," and that "2/3 of YouTube creators are sitting offshore, but they're not getting taxed ... and TikTok too ..."

Laura added that a film "takes 3 years," so Donald Trump "will actually be out of office before somebody could change their production location to make a film in America instead of offshore."

Mel asked if YouTube would take a big hit from this supposed tariff. We thought Laura already addressed that. Laura affirmed that it'd be the opposite, that people are watching these offshore-made videos for free, so it'd be "really hard" for the government to put up a "paywall." Though we do wonder if the ad revenue from overseas-produced content could be tariffed in some way.

Pointing out economics that the entertainment consumer never really thinks about, Laura said of any potential tariffs, "It is bad for Hollywood films because it is much cheaper to produce in London, to produce in Canada, to produce offshore than it is in America, right now." Mel asked for the "differential." Laura said "30%," typically, for offshore.

So basically, all this administration has to do is 1) determine whether "film" and "TV" are the same thing (and carve out exceptions for all the shows that are nice); 2) figure out how to confiscate YouTube and TikTok's ad revenue from offshore-produced content; and 3) create gobs more movie roles/jobs while the cost of moviemaking goes up 30%.

As far as the permanence of this tariff threat, Laura said, "He says something yesterday on Sunday, there's nothing that prevents him 3 days later from reversing himself, right, he sort of sees what the uproar is. ... If he's trying to create more jobs, him adding tariffs to films in production ... isn't helping job production ... I fully expect if he gets enough outcry from Hollywood, that he'll reverse himself."

Chris Verrone said NFLX, which was on a lengthy winning streak, got overbought and was due for a pullback for any reason. Chris said it's a buy on a pullback but suggested "950, 975." Guy Adami suggested 1,060 "makes sense."

DOGE was a ‘great gift’

Brad Gerstner, star guest of Monday's (5/5) Halftime Report, said the stock market had to fear "the nuclear Navarro approach" (snicker) but has now "realized" that "Trump at his core is a free and fair trader, wants to cut deals."

Judge asked Brad if the Board Challenge is still a priority there's been "brand damage" to the U.S. Brad said that "love him or hate him," Donald Trump "anchors his negotiations in a very aggressive place." Brad conceded some "remaining uncertainty" but claimed there are a "bunch of pro-growth administrative policies" in the works.

Brad acknowledged reducing his TSLA position but claimed it was part of overall derisking. Judge asked about Elon's possible brand damage. Brad shrugged that DOGE will be regarded in the future as a "great gift." Brad warned not to "underestimate" China companies' interest in self-driving cars.

Brad said in tech, it's a "stock-picker's market, this is not a market just to own the index and go to sleep." (Ah. We're back to that slogan again.) Brad said Warren Buffett "inspired me to start tracking stocks when I was in high school."

Judge asked Brad "where are you" in terms of Brad's Invest America account-for-life idea that Brad touted on the show in March 2024. Brad claimed "incredible progress" in Washington (we'll believe that when we see it) and "I think we are gonna get it in the reconciliation bill." Brad said to "think of it as a 401(k) from birth." He claimed UBER, DELL, ORCL and NVDA "and many many others" all said they'll contribute to accounts for kids of their employees. (Um, for those particular companies, paying employees a 1-time, $1,000 donation for each child, given all the other expenditures they make, really isn't a big deal.)

Joe: Market will ‘roll over’ with a 4.5 10-year

Judge's Monday (5/5) Halftime Report started just after Sara Eisen spoke to Scott Bessent, so Judge launched into the reax.

"I think his words are always pro-market," offered Joe Terranova, saying Bessent's commentary always gives investors "comfort."

Brian Belski assured Judge, "This is not a dead-cat bounce."

According to the screen text, Bessent actually claimed we're still getting stimulus from the 2017 tax cuts.

Anastasia Amoroso thinks the market momentum can continue; "we're starting to sense some of that optimism about the long-term gains."

Jim Lebenthal, who had a quiet show, said he thinks by year-end, "We're gonna be nicely higher in the markets than we are now." (What happened to Jim's small-caps trade.)

Joe still insisted, "The bond market is running the show" and that stocks will "roll over" if the 10-year climbs toward 4.5.

Belski bought DECK, AEO, TGT and AMD. Belski noted DECK is down "40+% this year."

Joe said the JOET sold CMG as well as DAL, and Joe called airlines "just a trade." Jim said over 5 years, DAL's return is "in line with the market," it's just that there's "ridiculous ups and downs."

S&P 500’s 52-week low apparently is 4,835.04 on April 7

Friday's (5/2) Halftime Report had so few fireworks, most folks could take a pass.

However, after a week like last week, it's kind of amusing to pull up Steve Weiss' comments from late April ... things like "recession" ... "stagflation" ... "eventual financial crisis" ... "long-term" thing ...

4 And then there was Brian Belski, finally dropping his S&P target on April 9, just 2 days after the short-term bottom. (The restoration of the earlier target has got to be coming soon.)

In the understatement department, we have Steve Grasso on the April 24 Fast Money contending "we're gonna be at 6,000 pretty quickly," then saying it will take "4-6 months."

Sarat Sethi observed of the markets on Friday's program, "All this is self-inflicted." Kevin Simpson said he could make a "strong case" that there's no recession.

Rob Sechan said it's "hard to be underweight" AAPL so he'll "stay at neutral." Kevin Simpson talked up writing covered calls on AAPL.

Rob bought BX.

Judge brought in Mike Tirico to talk Derby. (Generally, Judge — on his program — only cares about sports events that are broadcast by NBCUniversal properties.)

Rob said direction of the stock of RACE, which he owns, is "really tariff-dependent."

Farmland Partners, which has a market cap of $400 million, cut its dividend from a position of strength

After the A Block on Thursday's (5/1) Halftime Report, Judge revealed that OGN was having its "worst day ever," and Jenny Harrington, one of the day's panelists, owns it.

Jenny said it gives her a "special version of angry." Jenny told Judge she's not selling Thursday, but "I'm going to have to."

Josh tried to ask a question, but Jenny demanded time to give a complete rant about this stock that ... nobody else has heard of or probably invested in.

Judge skeptically asked Jenny, "Does anyone ever cut their dividend at a point of strength?" Jenny claimed, "Yes, actually!" Judge shrugged, "Not really." Jenny said, "The answer is occasionally," something called "Farmland Partners."

What we really wanted to hear about is further discussion of Josh's suggestion a couple weeks ago about Jenny getting a movie based on her recent book. Josh suggested Jessica Chastain, which we wholeheartedly agree with. But we're also thinking, maybe Amy Adams. Either one would be an outstanding likeness were this likable project ever to come to fruition.

Judge says Jenny wouldn’t want to buy AMZN at the level she claims she’ll buy it at

It wasn't really pitched that way, but Thursday's (5/1) Halftime was kind of a Mag 7 show.

Josh Brown said MSFT's results aren't necessarily indicative of the "next 200 names in the Nasdaq"; we should just "take this for what it is."

Joe Terranova said positioning in MSFT was "incredibly lean ... relative to the other Mag 7 names."

Jenny Harrington actually thought that it was either the end of 2020 or 2021 when Zuck got efficient and turned around META (just at the time EVERYONE on the Halftime Report was buying the shares); Josh pointed out that it was the end of 2022. (He didn't mention Brad Gerstner's famous letter from a few months earlier that of course made all the difference.)

Joe revealed that the JOET unloaded AMZN. (It's that time of year. Or that time of the quarter.) Joe actually mentioned the "juiced era in baseball where everyone was hitting 35, 40 home runs."

Josh said, "Amazon and Walmart's P.E. ratios have crossed ... Amazon is now a cheaper stock than Walmart." (Great. And when has P.E. ratio ever predicted a stock's direction?)

Jenny said she's not adding AMZN despite doing "a tremendous amount of work" on the stock. Jenny said she'd want to buy AMZN down "20%," perhaps if the market would "tank" for about 15 minutes.

Joe and Judge said that would be 161, and Judge challenged Jenny that at 161, the market "looked like garbage" and "nobody wanted to buy anything" and Jenny would've thought "it was going lower."

Jenny protested that she bought a couple other stocks no one's heard of. Jenny twice said "valuation matters." OK, fine, but please show us the evidence that P.E. ratios predict stock direction.

The JOET apparently bought AAPL and sold GOOGL. (Zzzzzzzzz.) Joe said it's "kind of puzzling" to him that the JOET still owns TSLA.

Josh said SPOT looks "incredible" and mentioned the word, as all SPOT bulls do, "Netflix." Josh said traders can use 540 as support.

It was mentioned that Bill Baruch recently talked about buying this name. Indeed, it looked like Bill's buy was a bit early, but the stock has for a few days demonstrated the resiliency that Bill suggested it has.

When Santoli came on, Josh gushed about Warren Buffett's buy and sell of AAPL, "the greatest trade that any human being has ever done, ever, proportional to like, the world."

Josh insisted "restaurant-level profit" is the most important thing in SHAK's earnings.

Cost basis heroes

Judge opened Wednesday's (4/30) Halftime Report saying "the word of the day" appears to be "stagflation"; to his panelists, it might've been "basis."

Kari Firestone said she was "one of the only people on the desk buying" when the market was "way down." Kari's bought APO and said it's been down 30%.

Steve Weiss though stated, "This is what the beginning of stagflation looks like," and "I've never seen so many companies do this," where the companies claim not to have visibility, so, for an investor, "how arrogant is it to say" that the investor has visibility.

"We never have visibility," Kari responded.

Later, discussing APP, Joe Terranova asserted that "point of entry is always important" and reverted to Cost Basis Rationalization, stating, "We entered this stock last July at $76. So we have a lot of room for error." Sure. If your goal is to avoid a round trip. If your goal is actually to go higher from here and not from a year ago, then, Joe said that if you don't own it, don't jump in now, there's "too much volatility."

‘At best, they’re gonna be memorandums of understanding’

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (4/30) Halftime Report said to focus "first and foremost" on the bond market. Joe said the environment is "delicate at best."

Judge asked the group why V was flat. Jim Lebenthal pinned that on perceived consumer headwinds. Joe said that's "way too complex" (snicker) and that it's simply "everyone's long the name."

Getting down to brass tacks, Steve Weiss admitted, "Near term, I don't have the short position I had before," but once we hear about a deal with India, "you'll see the market pop."

Jim offered, "As far as where we go in the short term, Scott, I don't know, it really depends on these trade deals ... at best, they're gonna be memorandums of understanding." Joe countered that trade deals are already priced in.

Weiss called NFLX "my favorite stock." (This writer is long NFLX.) Joe said he's "not excited about the airlines."

Judge said Santoli will be at the Berkshire meeting. Remember a year ago, when Santoli was setting up there and joined the Halftime broadcast and Bill Murray secretly tugged on Santoli's shoe while live on the air.

Joe marveled at PLTR's recent bounce and warned "be very careful" about shorting it.

If we had to guess, we’d say China expects tariffs to roll back on their own

Guy Adami on Tuesday's (4/29) Fast Money explained why he doesn't think there's "confusion" as to the administration's message(s) about China.

We agree. If anything, the U.S.-China trade war seems more clear by the day: Beijing believes the tariffs will be rolled back without Beijing doing anything.

Of course, there is domestic risk to this approach.

As of now, only one side is claiming that there's been all kinds of talks. Which suggests that the pressure may be accumulating faster on that side of the divide. In recent days, that side's scorecard — the stock market — has cooperated nicely. That could always stop happening. In which case, we might start hearing about "giving importers some relief for a while."

In the category of "levers to pull," this is one of them.

Lori Calvasina actually said with a straight face, "I do actually talk to a lot of people that take comfort when Bessent is on."

Tim Seymour spoke during the Fast Money broadcast as if he were being paid by the word.

Tuesday's (4/29) Halftime Report was extremely humdrum (the lower the VIX, the less exciting the show). Josh Brown finally ditched PFE, for CVX, and touted UBER (as he always does) and SHAK (as he always does). Bill Baruch had to face questions about his recent SPOT buy. (Bill indicated that the position ... drum roll ... is less than a full position.)

Josh praised Dara, stating, "Whatever he says, goes." (In "Road House," the quote is, "What HE say ... goes.")

Weiss: Economy is ‘well on its way’ to recession

Judge on Monday's (4/28) Halftime Report mentioned Steve Weiss' "S-bomb" last week (see below) and asked Weiss if he was getting "all beared up" just as the market was getting "tactically bullish."

Weiss gave some kind of answer, but Weiss' sound didn't work, so viewers got a brief Shields & Yarnell routine. Someone on the set wondered if Weiss was getting "bleeped out." Eventually Weiss got his mike going and gave a speech and then told Judge he'd fade the bounce.

Judge eventually cut in, "I feel like you're tellin' us a riddle" and asked if Weiss could "translate."

Weiss said, "Most people don't need a translator but I'm happy to. ... Costs are going to stay high for the companies."

Basically, it's whatever angle can justify an ongoing bear case.

Weiss predicted "another 200 fictitious deals announced" by the White House that won't mean anything, and then, in a comment that could qualify for either Call of the Year or Bust of the Year, stated, "I believe the economy is going to recession" and is "well on its way."

Weiss told Judge, "I am bearish" but not "tactically bearish" for the next few days. Weiss predicted "below 5,000" for the S&P.

Joe Terranova contended, "The bond market is driving everything."

Joe suggested Monday was just a little profit-taking, while Jim Lebenthal said he agrees that it's just a "little bit of exhaustion."

Bryn: 5,250 to 5,740

Judge said at the top of Monday's (4/28) Halftime Report that this week will be "huge" (snicker).

Joe Terranova and Jim Lebenthal both mentioned the importance of the jobs report. Jim also suggested there "might be empty shelves this summer in some stores."

Bryn Talkington said, "All I hear is people are hanging on to their workforce en masse."

Bryn offered that "a 5,250 to a 5,740 is a really good range" for stocks.

Steve Weiss agreed with Bryn that post-COVID, companies aren't going to lay off workers.

Bill: Could be ‘50 to 100% upside’ in SPOT

Judge on Monday's (4/28) Halftime Report said Loop Capital dropped its META target from $900 to $695.

Despite Judge's amazement at the "reset" of expectations, it seems Loop's current META target is far more realistic than the previous one.

Bryn Talkington said you can't even really get much premium selling NVDA calls, so you just have to "sit and ride this out."

Judge said HSBC's double-downgrade of LLY, from $1,150 to $700, is "huge." (Judge didn't mention that Bill Baruch just reported buying it on Friday.)

Joe Terranova first touted LLY's gains for the JOET but still said "this is a good note." Joe said "there's too much variability" to LLY's revenue growth.

Bill Baruch dialed in to talk about buying SPOT (but didn't mention LLY from Friday). Bill said if SPOT can break out on an earnings beat, he'd buy the breakout. Bill suggested there's "50 to 100% upside in this stock."

Joe observed of SPOT, "There's a lot of people that are now buying this name." Judge said, "Good stuff."

Steve Weiss bought yet even more of UNH on Monday; "it's clearly defensive," he said. Of course it's "not quite a big position." (That means, if it goes up, he can say he made a great buy, and if it doesn't, he can say he hardly put any money into it.)

Jim Lebenthal, who had a quiet show, made QCOM, one of his longtime favorites, his Final Trade. (But nothing about CLF.)

JOET’s greatest hits

Friday's (4/25) Halftime Report, guest-hosted by Frank Holland, was rather humdrum as the markets quieted down.

Joe Terranova stated, "I love the fact today seems like a relatively calm and quiet environment."

Joe said Scott Bessent this week was the "sole messaging voice" on the administration's econmics.

Malcolm Ethridge said he wants to own tech, but not so much the names tied to the consumer and advertising.

Kevin Simpson talked about scooping up AAPL with a 1-handle. Joe shrugged that the stock is "kind of fairly valued."

Stephanie Link bought ISRG, a stock that years ago used to get mentioned but not so much in recent years, for whatever reason.

Bill Baruch bought LLY, an interesting buy, citing news that the GLP-1 drug in pill form was doing well. Bill also bought MCD, citing kind of a boring reason, "relative strength against, against other names."

Bill admitted that with his PLTR buy, "price is telling us something here." (Translation: When it goes up, it'll probably keep going up.) Joe said PLTR has had a "remarkable rebound" from the April 17 low of 66.12. Joe said the JOET bought PLTR for $16 a while back.

Judge seems to create an argument with Jim for absolutely no reason (a/k/a Steve suggests 6,000 in 4 months)

Shortly into Thursday's (4/24) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal first called Dave Tepper "Mark Tepper" before correcting himself. (It was probably only one of many things Tepper heard on NFL Draft Day.) (This review was posted overnight Thursday-Friday.)

Jim said not to be a trader, that it's only a "faraway minority" of legends who make money trading. Jim advised that the best approach is "buying the high-quality companies."

Judge, who (we're only guessing here) maybe thought Jim should be recommending "trading" beaten-down blue chip stocks by buying them, cut in to question that idea, stating, "that argument is a little specious in a market like you have now ... Why wouldn't you hyperfocus on the best companies in your book?" Jim protested, "That's exactly what I'm saying. How did I say something that sounded different than that? I said, buy the best companies."

Judge said, "But there are a lot of best companies that you would describe as best companies that have still gone down a bunch." Jim said, "I totally agree. And they will recover. It's a matter of time."

Judge said the WSJ headline "Trump meets his match: The Markets" was "interesting." Josh Brown even harkened back to the ONN/OFF ETF tandem (it was Dennis Gartman's and Fish's ETF concept, but Josh didn't mention that). Neither Josh nor Jim knew if those are still around.

Josh advised against day-trading this market and made a lengthy case for NFLX and UBER.

Jason Snipe said of NOW, "The concern was around DOGE ... They've obviously blown through that."

Eamon Javers said it's "sort of a mystery" as to whether the U.S. and China have really been having tariff meetings.

Bryn Talkington thinks the markets are getting "a little bit anesthetized" to trade war stuff. Bryn owns IBIT and ETHE, expecting a "180" in the "regulatory framework."

Bryn touted HOOD, and Josh agreed.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman indicated she can "exhale" a little bit on Alphabet. Tim Seymour bluntly called it a "huge exhale." Tim and Guy Adami recapped their stint earlier in the day on Kelly Evans "Stock Draft" program. The Sicilian thing, mentioned numerous times, got a little old (both in the Draft and Fast Money), but Guy did impressively note in the Draft show that the Pittsburgh Steelers not only drafted 4 Hall of Famers in 1974 but added another (Donnie Shell) as a free agent.

Steve Grasso said, "This is the bottom I think in Intel."

For the broad market, Guy Adami said he doesn't think the market is "out of the woods yet." But Steve said, "I think we're gonna be at 6,000 pretty quickly." Asked to define "pretty quickly," Steve suggested "4-6 months." Karen said, "I thought you were gonna say 'Thursday.'" Steve's "pretty quickly" got our attention; Steve's 4-6 months got our yawn.

Weiss says ‘s---’ on live TV

Wednesday's (4/23) Halftime Report was further proof that CNBC doesn't have a 7-second delay during business-day programming.

Steve Weiss warmed up early on the presidential administration saying that Donald Trump having "one day of, uh, of him negotiating against himself ... should not be applauded by the market."

Joe Terranova noted that we're hearing from Scott Bessent this week, not Howard "ISN'T THIS AWESOME?????!!!!!!!" Lutnick or Peter Navarro.

Sarat Sethi seemed to say rather innocuously that the administration is "watching the parameters of this" as it floats ideas such as firing Jay Powell. Weiss seemed to think that's nothing to celebrate.

Weiss said it's "ridiculous" to think long-term investors need to be invested all the time, citing names like Griffin and Tepper and Cohn and Renaissance, and then Weiss told Sarat it's "ridiculous" to give the administration "credit" for floating polarizing economic "soundbites."

Judge countered that administrations "for as long as time has existed" have tried floating a "trial balloon." Weiss said he doesn't disagree, but other administrations throw out trial balloons that are "within the realm of what's reasonable."

Then Weiss said, "The market rallied on Scott Bessent saying, 'Oh, tariffs are gonna come down with China. No s---. You mean they're gonna stay at 200%? C'mon, everybody knew that."

Jenny Harrington noted that Weiss said a bad word. Judge said it's "cable."

Weiss bluntly stated that Donald Trump "has no ability to fire Powell."

By the end of the show, Weiss was back to making UNH his Final Trade.

It’s a Hulu, not Netflix, market

On Wednesday's (4/23) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss talked about his hedging and how he's "able to take those off quickly." (Translation: If the market's going down, he's always hedged, but if it actually goes up, he's getting exposure.)

"My view hasn't changed," Weiss told Judge, before uncorking this theory:

"This market's trading like it's watching Hulu, where there's a new episode dropping every week, and that in a compressed time, vs. like Netflix, which is what the market wants to see, where all the information drops at one, and you know what the story is," Weiss said.

"A rare good analogy," Judge complimented Weiss.

Joe Terranova said there's been a "very clear softening of the rhetoric."

Judge said Ken Griffin says the trade war has devolved into a "nonsensical place" and the U.S. is "eroding its brand." (It was unclear from the quote marks on the screen exactly which parts of this, if not all, are a direct quote.)

Judge asked Jenny Harrington if this is a "bear market." Jenny said, "I don't know."

Jenny at one point said, "I'm not going to try to be cute." One thing they didn't talk about on the program was the recent notion of Jenny as Jessica Chastain/Jessica Chastain as Jenny, which is a very intriguing concept that we'd like to hear more about.

Halftime Report viewers get bonus crash course in elite literature

Rob Sechan on Tuesday's (4/22) Halftime Report suggested, "We're all kind of waiting for Godot." (If you're watching Halftime, you've got culture.)

Moments later, Josh Brown went on to explain "Waiting for Godot" and said the "permanent condition" for 2025 may be endless negotiations. (Which actually sounds kind of like Weiss' "single event" refrain.)

Anyway, Rob said, "I do think that clarity is ultimately going to come. It's just a question of when."

Josh did agree with Forever Bull Stephanie Link that "sentiment is extremely washed out."

Stephanie sees lots of tailwinds, including even the weaker dollar.

Deep thoughts from Scott Bessent

Judge on Tuesday's (4/22) Halftime Report said Bloomberg reported that Scott Bessent told people at a conference that somehow (unlike most things in this administration) wasn't on TV that "the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and that he expects the situation to deescalate." But the negotiations "haven't yet started" but a "deal is possible."

Wow. That is some profound analysis. From one of the ringleaders of the tariff train we're on. A deal is actually "possible." But the negotiations "haven't yet started."

Jim Lebenthal asserted that market volatility is "all about the trade war."

Jim said markets can adjust to uncertainty as they did in the first Trump term from 2018 to 2019. Josh Brown cut in, "They got bailed out by the Fed." Jim said, "That's fine." Josh asked if it could happen this time. Jim responded, "It could."

Judge tried asking Jim, if the Fed cuts, is that "unequivocally positive" for stocks. Jim apparently equivocated too much, saying the market would go up briefly, then down, then hypothetically explained how the Fed might explain a cut.

Judge decided, "You're making it too complicated," and Rob Sechan emphatically said "It would be negative because they shouldn't, they should not cut."

But Josh and Stephanie Link argued that the Fed should cut. Josh has previously made decent arguments about this, citing unemployment as lagging and the fact Europe has cut.

How about Judge landing Al Michaels for a chat about the NFL Draft??????!!!!!

On Tuesday's (4/22) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal mentioned buying a "meaningful amount" of AAPL recently and again told the story about getting angry calls from clients when AAPL is trimmed from their portfolios.

Judge told Josh Brown that the FTC is suing UBER, alleging that UBER charged for Uber One without consent. "It's not true," Josh said. Josh said litigation goes with the territory with Big Tech and you can't "react to every headline."

Jim was asked by Judge why no one on the desk loves MCD. Jim said he won't "hate on it" but it's more of a "defensive" name to him, and he wants to be "more aggressive." Josh said it's on his best stocks in the market list, and Josh also said KO has broken out.

Speaking of that best-stocks-in-the-market list, Judge said Josh added NOC to that list just 11 days ago (snicker) (Oops) (You might be able to see that list on your screen if you get CNBC+.) (Maybe.). Josh doubts it will stay there.

James Gorman spoke with Leslie Picker during the show and said he can't talk "publicly" about the DIS succession, but he promised an "answer" (interesting term) by "early 2026" and insisted "that will happen." (We'll make a wager that the next DIS CEO contract goes to someone with 4 letters in their last name and the first is an "I.") (Unless they get Brian Niccol.)

Weiss again denies something he just said (but this time, Jim isn’t around to pin him down)

For the umpteenth time, Steve Weiss on Monday's (4/21) Halftime Report said of the current ... something or other from the presidential administration, "I don't see this as an event" but a "long-term" thing and ... key terminology here ... an "eventual financial crisis."

Judge asked if Weiss is 100% in cash. Weiss said he's "almost completely hedged."

Weiss said, "The road is already going towards recession ... and going toward stagflation."

Judge wondered if Weiss won't buy stocks as long as Donald Trump is president.

Weiss actually said — with a straight face — that Donald Trump could remove Hegseth, Kennedy and Gabbard, and "he could show that it's not just an echo chamber of sycophants, but people that are willing to challenge him on policies so that he can get to a better place."

Yes, he said that with a straight face.

Assessing Weiss' comments, Brian Belski said, "I love you Steve, but coming on air and tellin' everybody we're going to go into a financial crisis, I don't think that's the right message for anyone."

Belski added "oh by the way" literally 4 times. (He added another one later.)

Belski suggested, "You're probably letting your political views, and your personal views cloud what's happening in terms of what you're doing in investing." Belski said "I think 2 years from now, the market is significantly higher."

After waiting to respond, Weiss protested, "There are a couple of misstatements there. I didn't say it was a 'financial crisis.' I said there's a market crisis, No. 1."

"You used 'financial crisis,'" Belski correctly interjected.

"Brian, you spoke, I'm gonna speak now," Weiss said, wondering why commenting on the presidency can't "just be analysis."

Weiss stated, "I'm not a liberal, I'm not a registered Democrat, I'm an independent, and before that, I was actually a registered Republican, so why don't we put that aside, why don't we leave the death threats out of Twitter, which I'm not on, and all the other stuff."

Weiss added, "And Brian, I apologize for not coming on and being a cheerla- cheerleader like you; I prefer to state the facts."

‘4,000 to 4,500 is where we go’

Joe Terranova said at the top of Monday's (4/21) Halftime Report that he's been using 2 words to describe the stock market: "treacherous" (OK) and "mercurial" (snicker).

Joe said, "Sometimes the best trade is no trade," and if you're looking for a short-term opportunity, "You're hoping you get a tweet."

Amy Raskin said the market environment is "anything but perfect," but she noted stocks are "only down like 10% from the start of the year."

Amy said she knows things look oversold technically, but "fundamentals have changed dramatically."

Steve Weiss apparently has a new approach, analyzing the budgets of the biggest Cabinet departments (snicker). He said there's "chaos" in the Defense Department, and Weiss has concluded "you can't invest," that "CEOs are frozen," and "I still believe 4,000 to 4,500 is where we go."

But Judge said (while addressing Brian Belski remotely, which made it at first sound like Belski's note) that UBS has got a new note, "we're upgrading U.S. equities." Belski made some analogy to sentiment in Europe ("they certainly do not, will not come back to the U.S. anytime soon"). Belski admitted "we can't pick when this thing's gonna be done," but he repeated his earnings-bottoming-in-9-months thing which apparently will cause multiples to rise, and said he's "aligned" with UBS' view.

Belski claims with a straight face that TSLA 2025 is like AAPL 2003

In a startling — or maybe not so startling — bit of self-confidence, Steve Weiss told Judge on Monday's (4/21) Halftime, "So far, I've been dead right on the market. Every sale I've made's been a good sale."

Weiss insisted the market is "still overvalued now" and also insisted the Fed is "not riding to the rescue" this time and that the market's been conditioned to expect a V-shaped recovery all the time. (Yes. And once there's a 1-year-delay-on-all-tariffs announcement, there will be a V-shaped recovery.)

Judge said Goldman Sachs, in "a little intraday color," just put out a note that said we're in a "buyer's strike."

Amy Raskin said gold is "not overbought by any stretch of the imagination."

Brian Belski said he still believes in Alphabet and correctly mentioned YouTube as the driver. Joe Terranova said ad spend is "clearly" the risk for Alphabet. But Joe said the "more important earnings report this week is Tesla," because it "speaks directly towards the tariffs."

Brian's long TSLA and twice said "at the end of the day," it'll be higher in 2 years. Brian even said, "I really think that Tesla is to right now what Apple was in 2003, 2004."

Weiss said, "I gotta move to Naples, man, they're putting something in the water there that's unbelievable."

Late in the show, Judge had to do the CNBC+ promo, as Mel did a day earlier on Fast. The list of headlines in small fonts on the side of the screen didn't exactly look like a must-have.

Halftime again had the Bitcoin Gal who mentions whatever the price of bitcoin is but never really has any scoops.

Guy Adami: Trump hasn’t fired Powell because people told him it’d be ‘catastrophic’

On Monday's (4/21) Fast Money, Guy Adami was rather outspoken.

Guy said dollar weakness "should be alarming a lot of people out there."

When the subject of Jay Powell's future came up and whether he could be fired, Guy said, referring to the president, "Enough people probably told him, that would be catastrophic."

Karen Finerman said "The Democrats sort of caved" during shutdown negotiations weeks ago, and now the economy is sort of on the Republicans.

Rich Greenfield makes a sensational point, not really about Netflix (but it may affect NFLX)

On Thursday's (4/18) Halftime Report, Bill Baruch revealed a new position in NFLX.

More on that in a moment. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Skipping ahead a few hours to Fast Money, where the panelists were able to comment on NFLX's earnings report, Guy Adami said he thinks the NFLX quarter is "good enough" to get through the all-time high.

Tim Seymour said NFLX is a "very defendible" story.

Back to Halftime for a moment. A big part of Bill's argument for buying NFLX is something we haven't actually heard from anyone else — Bill apparently made a comparison of the Nasdaq with the Q's and found it's "back at that gangbusters 2018 level ... I think it's gonna break out above there, which tells me, the Nasdaq will continue to outperform the Q's."

But Bill also acknowledged the usual things we hear about NFLX all the time.

Josh Brown, also on Halftime but remote, said after Bill spoke about NFLX, "I basically said that whole thing, but I did it yesterday." Nothing was stopping Josh from saying it all again, so he did Thursday.

OK. Back to Fast Money.

Steve Grasso sounded ... not terribly impressed with NFLX.

Steve stated, "Amazon Prime has actually- has a bigger market share than Netflix, quietly," and as for NFLX, "When I look at this, it looks toppy."

Steve said he thinks it can get to the level mentioned by Guy, but "they don't provide the subs; I think they know their growth is slowing."

Steve concluded, "They're the name to beat," but he "probably wouldn't be buying into it right here."

That aside, given what we're hearing about this stock on CNBC, this page is starting to get suspicious that NFLX, even below its all-time high, may be a "crowded trade."

(Note: We're not actually sure a "crowded trade" is something that exists. But it's a staple of CNBC commentary, so what the heck.)

When Steve Weiss is delivering 2-minute speeches about the stock a couple times a week, and when everyone basically this side of Jenny Harrington is gushing about this business ... you start to wonder if there are many incremental buyers left.

Over time, there have been a few horrifyingly sharp pullbacks. Among the risks: Embarrassing tech outages, or any type of programming or hiring that maybe sparks a war with ... certain political figures. There's also the possibility of spending too much, on bad or not-particularly good, content, but admittedly, there's so much on the service now, a couple bad series aren't going to sink the stock.

We're trying to think of how many other stocks have been so universally loved on the Halftime Report in recent years. Maybe NVDA, but once the surge began, people were always questioning whether they've already missed the run. UBER would be another contender, but there's often been a skeptic or two about that stock.

Back to Thursday's Fast Money. Later in the show, after panelists had already debated NFLX, star guest Rich Greenfield got a turn and noted all the positives in the earnings report.

Mel wondered about the potential of a "tax on services" or "tax on content" that could hurt NFLX. Rich shrugged that those kinds of things can always happen, but Netflix has got "an incredible price-value equation."

However, Rich offered his own concern. "The craziest thing is, YouTube is getting stronger by the day ... It's just stunning ... The power of user-generated content. I don't think this is just a risk for Netflix. I think this is a risk for every company in the media universe. The power of YouTube scares me."

Note that Rich did say "user-generated content." We've noticed that "user-generated" could include stuff like music or TV/movie material that the uploader didn't actually "create" themselves.

(This writer is long NFLX.) (This writer in the last 24 hours watched content on Netflix and homemade content on YouTube.)

Judge isn’t interested in onshoring T-shirts and sneakers (even though Howard says we’re subservient to those who make them)

Near the end of the A Block on Thursday's (4/17) Halftime Report, Judge brought in Steve Liesman to discuss Donald Trump's response to Jay Powell's remarks.

Steve indicated there was nothing alarming about what Jay said and "it's not rocket science" for Powell to say he needs to wait to see how things look with tariffs, etc.

Judge claimed Scott Bessent has been advising Donald Trump that markets would have a problem if Powell were fired.

"Powell is not saying, 'I won't cut.' I think Powell would like to cut," Steve insisted.

Josh Brown offered, "Powell's gonna be doing more cuts in the 2nd half of this year than he thinks he is."

Judge tried to convince the others that we'll eventually have a tariff deal; the only question is how much damage might be done along the way. Josh said, "Everybody knows there's a deal," and if the market didn't believe that, it would be 15 times earnings.

Josh described Kevin Warsh as "the Fed chair in waiting" and married to the daughter of one of Donald Trump's best friends. Josh though said he agrees with Trump in that, "This economy is not a 4½% Fed funds rate economy ... I think rates need to be lower." (That's a fair point. We'll have to tackle that later.)

Steve questioned the notion of a GDP "tailwind" from onshoring, suggesting it's the "least efficient" choice by companies for sourcing products. Judge asserted that the onshoring of "chips alone is, is good for GDP." Judge said that's what he's "primarily" talking about, not "T-shirts and sneakers."

A couple hours later, on Closing Bell with Kevin Warsh news, Steve Liesman (who was busy all day) told Judge that he's got "2 bits of what's potentially good news out of this," which is that some people around the president are supposedly "dissuading" him from replacing Powell and that Kevin Warsh "venerated the institution itself" and it would not be Warsh's "preference" to take over under these circumstances. Steve added that coincidentally, "Kevin is not a loose-money guy."

Jessica Chastain as Jenny (cont’d)

Josh Brown said at the beginning of Thursday's (4/17) Halftime Report that one problem for NVDA is that "it's a political story wrapped around a cyclical story."

Josh said "the median tech stock is in a 30% bear market."

Bill Baruch, who's had some great calls in the past year but hasn't been on for a bit, said he's "not projecting 180, you know, anytime soon" for his buy of NVDA, but he thinks the "back half of the year" will be "much better" for NVDA and the AI trade. "Right now, it's uncertainty," Bill said.

Jenny Harrington said, "We're all looking for the answer. And the answer doesn't exist right now." Judge said, "I know, but everybody knows that ... We've said 'uncertainty' like 650,000 times in the last week."

Jim Lebenthal, who had a quiet show, argued that NVDA's multiple already reflects more than enough earnings headwinds; Jenny, of course, argued that it does not.

Bill bought more AVGO. Bill said it's a "very tactical" trade. Bill conceded the stock is in a "little bit of no-man's land."

Bill also bought more META, citing presumed strength in a possible "recessionary-like quarter or 2."

Jenny actually bought MCHPP. The screen graphic and the conversation for a while indicated she's long MCHP. That stock is (semi-)famous as the one Pete Najarian mocked about 10 years ago because it issued some kind of warning that hit the whole sector and Pete scoffed that it's not as important as, say, INTC. But eventually, Jenny mentioned it's apparently the convertible preferred with the symbol MCHPP.

(We were really hoping the panel would take up the recent conversation about Jessica Chastain playing Jenny/Jenny playing Jessica Chastain, one of our favorite Halftime conversations in recent memory. But no one brought it up.)

Steve Weiss dialed in to say he bought more UNH in the morning. Weiss said it's got an "excellent valuation."

Remember when not too long ago, everyone was hailing Tepper’s China call?

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (4/16) Halftime Report offered a public service announcement of sorts, lamenting that zero-day options are "to the detriment of market conditions."

Joe complained, "Algorithms are being written surrounding the zero-dated options" and that "literally," the market from 2-4 p.m. is "being driven by zero-dated options."

Steve Weiss posed the question of whether BABA gets "delisted" and said he doesn't see the "upside" now.

Kevin Simpson articulated a fine point about TMUS and the telcos, how they spent 3-4 years unable to "get out of their own way" but are better now.

Judge doesn’t ask how a stock can be both a ‘buy’ as well as possible ‘dead money for another year’

Wednesday's (4/16) Halftime Report was so sleepy, the most exciting topic was people talking about selling upside Mag 7 calls that expire within a week or even Thursday.

In the process, Kevin Simpson was heard to say that NVDA could be "dead money for another year," but for a longer-term investor, "I think 104 is a buy."

Judge didn't ask about that seeming contradiction.

Steve Weiss sold half his NVDA stake and said his "bearish sentiment on the market has not changed" and is even "fortified" (snicker) by tariff fallout.

Joe Terranova said Weiss made a "trading move" and that "Everything is mercurial right now."

Anastasia Amoroso said chips are caught in the trade war and "may still have more downside to go."

Addressing all of those ridiculous AI capex forecasts (by analysts and the companies themselves) of the past year (you know, how the rest of the Mag 7 is going to spend $100 billion apiece on Blackwell chips just so that everyone knows they bought them), Anastasia said hyperscaler spending is "very much a question mark."

Weiss said he sold calls in META and NFLX, "far out of the money" but "near-term expiration," April 24-25. (Bet those are worth a fortune.)

Kevin sold a 1-month covered call for MSFT, a 430 expiring May 16 with a "7.5% annualized return."

Kevin sold an AEM covered 125 call expiring Thursday. Kevin pointed out the stock is "up almost 60% year to date."

Kevin the mind-reader

Judge on Wednesday's (4/16) Halftime Report to his credit grilled Joe Terranova on IBKR, a stock Joe has seemingly recommended forever; “What happened.”

Joe claimed the stock was down because (this was first of several metric reasons) "they missed by 4 cents on EPS." Then Joe insisted, "I think you can buy this stock against 140," because "the trading activity was ridiculously strong."

After jotting down Joe's comments, we were thinking, but what if the account holders switch to HOOD so they can bet on sports and buy bitcoins?

Much later, during Final Trades, bingo — Kevin Simpson, citing Joe's "great bull case on Interactive Brokers," made his Final Trade HOOD.

(OK, Kevin didn't say anything about sports betting or crypto.)

Later on Power Lunch, Sully complained that he's renovating a home, so he'll be feeling tariffs' impact in "real-time, firsthand" for 9 months.

Joe pins a $1,250 on NFLX

Judge on Tuesday's (4/15) Halftime Report asked Josh Brown, who wasn't at Post 9, to explain selling Alphabet, which Josh did (Zzzzzzzz), and then Josh launched into a speech about why he bought NFLX and considers it "the best stock in the market" for this year.

(This writer is long NFLX and is glad to hear kudos for the stock on the program, but it tends to be the same thing over and over, including from Karen Finerman at the top of the 5 p.m. Fast Money, which led off with the Netflix story.)

Joe Terranova said he bought NFLX a year ago in April under $550 and "some people looked at me puzzling (sic) for doing it." Joe said, "Josh reaching for it here close to a thousand, I have no problem with that, because I think the stock clearly takes out the 1,064 high and goes to 1,250."

On Fast Money, Happy Dan Nathan said some call NFLX "recession-proof," but Dan pointed out that in 2022, it lost "70% from its all-time highs." (Which is a great point, actually.) Guy Adami said 83 or 85 have been technical support levels for DIS, and it's worth a "flyer" here.

Late on the Halftime Report, Josh and Stephanie Link said the same thing about cybersecurity that Josh and Joe and Karen said about NFLX.

Judge hasn’t heard ‘anybody’ suggest $305 in S&P EPS for 2026

Dubravko Lakos joined the set of Tuesday's (4/15) Halftime Report and offered about 15 potential S&P targets for 2025 (sorry, pass).

Josh Brown questioned Dubravko's S&P earnings number of $250 for 2025; with a 20 multiple, "you get to 5,000," Judge noted.

Dubravko insisted that for any year-end S&P number, the 2025 EPS number is "irrelevant."

He said the Street number is $305 for 2026.

Judge was alarmed by $305. "The number reflects a level of optimism that I haven't heard from anybody," Judge told Dubravko, who said it's "an extrapolation."

Dubravko said the onshoring story has some "partial validity."

Joe Terranova opened the show by speculating on the "messaging in the market" (Zzzzzzzz).

Shannon Saccocia said her view is "more on the side of being time to buy." Of course.

Joe almost referred to "natural grass" instead of "natural gas."

Joe says he sensed on Friday that AAPL was getting an exemption

Judge really struggled to determine what's front and center at the outset of Monday's (4/14) Halftime; Joe Terranova got first crack and mentioned a half-dozen indicators, including "the SMH lower."

Steve Weiss again made his now-everyday point about what happened in 2008 being "certain events" (an assertion that has made little sense since he started making it) (or, as he likes saying this month, tariffs are not a "single event"), whereas today, tariffs are "destabilizing" and CEOs "don't know where to go" but won't say so publicly "out of fear of retribution."

Judge and a screen graphic noted Weiss buying a flurry of stocks, GS, NFLX, NVDA, TSM, META, LDOS. Weiss said he's had a trade in META but is "probably stopped out of it."

Weiss said he doesn't think "worst case" is priced into the market, however, Weiss thinks "we're reaching a point of exert- uh, of exhaustion on those headlines." (This page will definitely agree with that.)

Joe said, "You don't really see any leadership stepping forward."

Sarat Sethi said it's "hard to be really aggressive," but he wouldn't get out of the market.

Sarat bought more WDAY and CRM and APD.

Rob Sechan offered, "We think markets could retest the lows." Rob said "everybody now is cautious," but if you don't have a shopping list for when it's time to buy, "you'll be scratching your head, why wasn't I taking action."

Joe revealed, "I was mesmerized on Friday. I never like to say this on air, but I watched the stock all day, and I- and I literally said to myself, 'Apple is trading as if it's getting its- the exemption that it got last time."

Judge said, "It was up a lot."

Joe said AAPL will be "fine." Weiss said he doesn't think it's "buyable" now.

Judge said Roth has a "diamonds in the rough" list that includes AMAT. Joe said he likes KLAC and LRCX better. But Rob said you can "certainly" buy AMAT.

CTAS was another name on the Roth list. Joe said you're owning it for the management. TJX is also on the list and hit a record high Monday. Joe asked Sarat if he knows about CASY; Joe was apparently oblivious to Jim Lebenthal mentioning ownership of CASY a week ago.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said, "I'm not a buyer or a seller with the VIX right here." Guest host Dom Chu said "a number of folks" describe this market as trading "heavy."

‘Don’t backtrack it 30 seconds later’: Jim gets the better of Weiss in split-screen China debate, though Weiss gets in a good counterpunch on small caps

(Sigh) We'd hoped to have a quiet day watching Friday's (4/11) Halftime Report.

Instead, we had to take extensive quotes from Jim Lebenthal's veritable takedown of Steve Weiss on global economic leadership.

It started when Jim said "damage has been done" to the U.S.' standing, but it's not "irretrievably lost."

Weiss insisted "there is evidence Jim, in terms of rates, in terms of the dollar ... that the U.S. is not the default economy."

(OK, already skeptical of Weiss' position there ... Steve "Save the Cleavers and Ozzie & Harriet from Midwest NAFTA 'devastation'" Eisman made several strong points on Fast Money the other day about why that basically can't happen; the whole world does business in Treasurys.)

"Who's taking over Steve?" Jim demanded.

Weiss said, "Oh I think there are plenty of take- ... China has been very patient in terms of what they've done ... There's no secret where China stands ... there's a lot of secret in terms of where the U.S. stands now, because Trump doesn't know where he stands. That tariff plan was finalized right before he went to talk about it."

Judge cut in, "I just don't want to relitigate it," as if they had ever actually "litigated" it.

"I disagree that China's gonna take over U.S. leadership," Jim stated.

"I'm not saying they are, I'm saying there's enough-" Weiss protested.

"It sounded like you just said that," Jim said.

"You wanna let me finish, or you wanna-" Weiss started to say.

"No you already said it," Jim said.

"I'm saying that they are in a better position right now-" Weiss said.

"I asked you, Who's gonna take over leadership. You said China. Don't backtrack it 30 seconds later. I will tell you I disagree with that assessment. If you meant to say something else, then correct it now," Jim said.

"I'm gonna say what I said before — which is that they are in a better position to do it now than the U.S.," Weiss said. "I didn't say they're taking it over, I said they're in better position."

(That isn't exactly what he previously said, but nor did he exactly say what Jim said he said.)

Jim asked if the U.S. "has ceded" leadership of the global economy.

"It has ceded its leadership," Weiss stated.

"Then who's taken it over," Jim wondered.

"Nobody's taken it over yet," Weiss said.

"OK ... Then we agree on that," Jim said.

"Yeah, we agree in a moment of time. You continue to look backwards, I'll continue to look forwards," Weiss said.

"You continue to look forward by making conjecture," Jim said. "You have no idea. Nor do I."

"Of course it's conjecture! But I'm willing- I'm willing to take the risk," Weiss said.

"You say that you know ... you certainly don't know because nobody knows," insisted Jim, who said he'll "fall back on historical patterns."

Weiss accused Jim of "preaching." Jim said, "I have to appeal to the Judge (snicker) — am I preaching, or is he preaching?"

"Jim, let me finish, OK," Weiss demanded.

"You talk forever. Just say it succinctly," Jim recommended.

"Just finish quickly," Judge admonished, saying he wanted to move on to "something else" (snicker).

"Look, the U.S. has ceded it, OK. It's ceded leadership. Nobody's picked the crown up yet. Things don't happen in a day. But, there's not a country out there that trusts us as a trading partner, vs. before Trump, they did," Weiss said.

That might've been it. Except Judge then asked Jim about selling small caps on Tuesday, "if not at the low, darn close to it."

Jim said it's a "minor detail," but he sold small caps Tuesday morning while the market was "rallying." Judge said Jim sold it "down a lot." Jim said "everything's down a lot."

Judge said Jim's been making the case that this is the place to invest and that there's not going to be a recession. Jim said "that's why I am fully invested overall." Weiss wondered why Jim "would sell the asset class" that according to Jim will do "best in a recovery."

Jim said, "Because I haven't sold the asset class."

"Small caps, you just said you sold," Weiss said.

"Calm down, Steve," Jim said.

"Jim if you keep coming at me like that, you know it's not gonna end good for you, so stick to the facts," Weiss advised.

"You're way too sensitive," Jim said, before stating, "If I've taken a little bit out of small cap, I'm not out of small caps entirely at all," which was a departure from what he conceded to Judge moments earlier.

"So that line's wrong, you didn't sell small caps," Weiss said.

"Steve, what I sold was the ETF, which was 1 position out of 25 in the portfolio. It was approximately a 4% position in my portfolio," Jim explained.

Weiss asked for Jim's "average large position." Jim said he has a 25-to-30-stock portfolio, "which means, on average, things are gonna be 3-4%."

Judge asked Weiss about buying GS. Weiss said he bought it in the morning and cited David Solomon.

Fish: ‘No reason why gold can’t keep going up’

Judge's star guest on Friday's (4/11) Halftime was Mark Fisher, who hasn't been on in ages and described the current market as "organized chaos."

Fish said "there's really nobody left long" in oil; "everyone's worried about a recession." Fish said Iran is the "wild card."

Judge asked Fish if 50 or 70 is next for WTI. Fish said "70."

Fish told Judge that grains seem like the best trade opportunity now, citing the fact no one's talking about them, and "everyone needs food." Judge asked whether it matters as to wheat, corn, etc.; Fish said it's easiest to trade corn.

On gold, Fish said the longs "aren't getting out," and so the shorts can only liquidate to a "new short," which drives the price higher. Fish said "The VIX of the world is gold," and "there's no reason why gold can't keep going up ... How high is high? I have no idea."

Is Brad Gerstner still on his ‘Credit the Master’ victory lap?

Judge's Friday (4/11) Halftime Report started slowly and would've been humdrum if not for Jim-vs.-Weiss. (In other words, nothing from Howard Lutnick about how this feels SOOOOOO GREATTTTTT!!!!!, or nothing from Rick Santelli declaring the end of globalism.)

Judge said Kevin Simpson's been buying "many blue-chip names." Kevin acknowledged, "We've been doing a lot of buying, that's for sure."

Kevin made the case for active management and said "what we need to do is be able to provide less downside" (that's always the argument).

Kevin said ending March, he had a 12% cash position. He said he put half of that into stocks in the pullback.

Steve Weiss wondered where the 12% stands for Kevin historically; Judge chimed in that the 12% "sounds high." Kevin said, "In a perfect world, I'd like to have 5% cash."

5 minutes in, Judge said it's "significant" that Jim Cramer reports "wavering" on whether he should change his "own, don't trade, Apple" advice. Kevin shrugged, "We trade Apple like crazy." Kevin speculated about AAPL earning $5 a share and having a 25 multiple and what the share price would be. Judge speculated about what it would be like if Jim Cramer visited the Post 9 set. (But Jim didn't visit the Post 9 set during Halftime.)

Jim Lebenthal bought more AAPL. Jim said he's not calling a bottom but is "absolutely" buying. Jim also bought C, WAB and AZN.

Weiss asserted, "This is gonna be, over the next 90 days, a series of small wins, that are headline wins but have no substance." Weiss added, "I do think that the- that the pain trade still is to the upside."

Judge aired the Squawk on the Street comments from Larry Fink about the U.S. nowadays being the "global destabilizer."

Steve Grasso: ‘I think we’re gonna bounce aggressively’ (a/k/a why wasn’t Brad crediting ‘The Master’ on Thursday?)

If Judge thinks people want to hear Forever Bullishness coupled with Donald Trump saying for the 15th time this week that "We should've done this a million years ago but our leaders were stupid" and "it's the greatest of the greatest of all time," especially on an episode that has practically no commercials, then Judge has got another thing coming.

Fast Money, on the other hand, got right to the point Thursday (4/10).

Steve Grasso cited "3 record volume days" in the last 5 days and said if he were laying shorts in this market, he'd feel less comfortable Thursday than Wednesday.

"I'm not seeling yet. I think we're gonna bounce aggressively," Steve said.

Karen Finerman was kind of noncommital and said it "feels like things are sort of breaking, right," but she's "more optimistic" that "cooler heads will prevail."

Back on the endless Halftime Report (we're quickly getting tired of this ... "tariff turmoil" crapola along with some of the pronouncements that go along with it), Josh Brown suggested that Thursday was an indication that Wednesday was just a bear-market bounce.

Bryn Talkington, who a day ago gushed about selling 180 RH calls minutes before the stock traded over 190, asserted that it's a "2018 environment on steroids."

Forever Bull Stephanie Link noted how far some stocks are down from their highs and said you've got to look at opportunities.

Judge tried to argue with his panel that this administration would be OK with a recession, citing comments made by Howard Lutnick, evidently not realizing that those comments are for skeptical countries who don't think these tariffs will last, not for Americans who don't want to hear it. Josh said those comments are "bluster" and that Lutnick is a "billionaire" and that "his lifestyle won't change whatsoever" whether there's a recession or not.

Judge said Tom Lee sees potential for a V-shaped recovery.

Judge at least noted that an announcement about a call with Xi would send the stock market surging.

Rick Santelli rant: Globalism has come ‘to an end’

Just after the Fast Money gang's interview with Howard Lutnick ended (see below) on Wednesday (4/9), Rick Santelli got a chance — not at Howard, but the Fast Money panelists whom Rick had been overhearing.

Rick had to explain a few charts, but he couldn't wait to "ask the panel a question" after, according to Rick, the panel had asked Howard if the country is better off than a week ago.

After zipping through those charts, Rick asked the panel a "different question" than what they asked Howard Lutnick: "Who on the panel thinks globalism is stronger today than it was a week ago. Anybody?"

Somebody on the panel said, "Silence."

"Nope," Mel said.

"Of course not," Tim Seymour said.

Let's interrupt right there. Because the Fast Money response is curious. Someone on a debate team could make the argument that globalism is a lot stronger than a week ago, because a major initiative against it was just rolled back.

Anyway. "Because to me, that's the benefit. That's the benefit," Rick said. "You wanna know the benefit? Globalism coming to an end. It wasn't fair to America in many ways."

That made us wonder, how exactly did globalism come to an end on Wednesday? And Rick is referring to the "benefit" ... from what? The "benefit" of 25% across the board tariffs? Or the "benefit" of pausing them?

(By the way, don't a lot of folks still buy Saudi Arabian oil?)

Rick conceded it's "super messy" but asserted, kind of curiously, by pointing to previous market meltdowns, that "there's no resets in a crisis. ... You got a reset today. This is different." After a pause, Tim Seymour asked Rick, "How did we lose in globalism? Can you explain that?"

"I don't want other countries to tell the U.S. what to do," Rick said. "Globalism had to come to an end. Otherwise, our nationalism has to disappear."

Howard’s answers leave Tim wondering about ‘cause and effect’

Howard Lutnick rolled into his Wednesday (4/9) interview with the CNBC Fast Money gang gushing, "What a great day for America, isn't it!"

Mel responded that "it is a great day," but stocks are still lower than pre-"Liberation Day."

Howard said with a straight face that market reaction did not cause the tariff policy change, "absolutely not."

Mel and the Fast Money panelists basically asked Howard the same questions they were asking Steve Eisman a day ago (see below). Guy Adami asked Howard if having a trade deficit means we're really getting ripped off. Howard claimed that Europe's taking advantage of us. Howard said that what the president is doing "feels great."

Tim Seymour asked, "Are we trying to reindustrialize America?"

Howard cut into the rest of Tim's question saying "Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes."

Tim said it seems to him that we "industrialized in America a hundred and fifty years ago, and the jobs went overseas because it was more efficient to do that. We're also at record unemployment. So I'm just trying to understand, how all this makes sense together."

Howard said if you're not building anything, "Eventually you become subservient to the people who build things for you." Howard claimed, "60% of our GDP is now owned by outsiders." (We're not sure how GDP is "owned," but whatever.)

Mel wondered, "are we talking about bringing back textiles. (That would be Norma Rae.) ... Some would argue that those are lower-value goods, and you want those goods to be manufactured abroad, so that the United States can manufacture higher-value goods."

"And who's gonna work those jobs," wondered Tim.

Howard launched into semiconductors and questioned, "imagine if China went and took over Taiwan." Mel said "there's no national security argument for bringing back, you know, appliances." Howard pointed out, "You don't have a problem with pharmaceuticals. How about steel and aluminum? ... You need to address it in bulk. ... It's just so blatantly unfair."

After the interview ended, Tim Seymour noted, "Didn't the market rally today because we paused this policy? I'm just trying to understand the cause and effect here. I mean, if this is a great day because markets rallied, the markets rallied because in fact we paused what was deemed to be an issue ... Let's call it what it is."

Bonawyn Eison actually suggested, "I will call out both sides. I do think it does take a little bit of humility to say, 'Hey, perhaps we got out in front of our skis, we're gonna pause and we're gonna reassess'-"

"I don't think anybody said that," Tim cut in.

"Nobody said," Mel agreed.

"This was a victory lap," Tim stated.

Hmmmm ... well let's just say that while this page agrees with a lot of the Fast Money crew's observations, Howard did give a vigorous defense of this administration, and his willingess to go toe-to-toe on live TV with informed folks who may be, um, skeptical of what this administration is doing is a credit to Howard.

Whoever's occupying the White House, the country needs effective people in the position that Howard is in, and we're lucky, actually, that he's there.

We do wonder why Howard got tough follow-up questions, while nobody asked Steve "Saving Ward and June Cleaver and Ozzie & Harriet From Their Devastated and Lost Midwestern Towns Caused by NAFTA and WTO" Eisman a day earlier exactly which Midwestern/Southern (none of this happened on the coasts of course) towns he believes are "devastated" or even "lost" specifically because of NAFTA and WTO (and not from other reasons) and whether 1) Steve actually visited this town(s) and spoke with people there or 2) read about it in a blog somewhere. (Steve of course will tell us that this is not his opinion, he's just thinking about this subject the way the president is thinking about it.)

Brad Gerstner hands out the credit to ‘the master of the deal’

On Wednesday's (4/9) Closing Bell, which took place during an afternoon of stock-market euphoria, Brad Gerstner almost sounded more like a White House spokesperson than the actual White House spokespersons.

Brad told Judge that it's "credit where credit is due ... he's the master of the deal."

As stocks surged to ... lower than their levels of last week, when everyone was expecting a not-so-worst-case scenario.

Brad actually claimed with a straight face that "we now have a durable framework."

Judge more than once told Brad that CEOs have been "paralyzed." Brad returned to the notion of "framework."

Ed Yardeni suggested the credit belongs elsewhere. "Thank you, Jamie Dimon," Ed said. Judge said the bond market had a "real chance to get out of control."

Eamon Javers, who has a great delivery and always does a great job, especially at times like these, was talking about Scott Bessent and then pivoted to Karoline Leavitt, except Eamon said "I talked to Karoline Bessett" (sic) (that's JFK Jr.'s wife).

Belski cutting his price target was a buy signal within minutes

A couple days after hectoring Brian Belski over Brian's 6,700 S&P target, Judge on Wednesday's (4/9) Halftime Report said Belski has "now revised" that target, and then Judge brought in Brian on the phone.

The screen text showed Brian's new target is 6,100. (Good thing the screen showed it, because neither Judge nor Brian said what it was until Brian mentioned it 4 minutes later, at the end of their conversation.)

Brian gave a bit of a speech about how this change is based on earnings-bottoming methodology (snicker) before saying, "We think that there's- it's a very good chance that earnings kind of bottom 6 to 9 months from now," but when the "rebound" comes, it'll be "violent" and "strong" and the U.S. will lead.

It sure was/will be. (This review was posted overnight Wednesday-Thursday.)

Judge shrugged, "Aren't we already in a bear market."

Calls that Bryn sold are worth a fortune just minutes after she gushed about selling them

Every now and then, someone mentions a big trade on the Halftime Report that gets settled very quickly.

That's exactly what happened Wednesday (4/9), when Bryn Talkington said she bought RH at 145 and said she is "selling calls against it" (oops) (check the 4/9 closing price) (this review was posted overnight Wednesday-Thursday), namely the May 180s for ... drum roll ... $20.

(If you were watching this program and wondered, at that time, if those calls could get exercised by the end of the day, give yourself a gold star.)

Bryn explained that RH could "easily move back up to 200" with "any reprieve from Vietnam." That much was clearly true. (We're guessing, just like at the White House on Wednesday afternoon, we're going to be hearing about a victory lap about the "huge premium" on this trade, even though it's a far greater victory for the buyer.)

Judge also asked Bryn about FANG. Bryn pointed to a couple reasons, including Iranian talks, that could keep a lid on crude. Bryn said you want high-quality names this year and there's a "bunch" of names you can own, but if the economy weakens, oil won't do well. Joe Terranova said, "I do think oil is very susceptible to a further decline."

Bryn said owning DELL has been "brutal" and is still a "tough trade" right now.

Judge talks about ‘the arsonist’ while Weiss remains fixated on the ‘single event’

Judge somehow got into private credit at the top of Wednesday's (4/9) Halftime Report, after declaring that "everybody ... everybody" that he talks to is talking about the 10-year yield, and Judge said that Ed Yardeni is wondering if there's something "about to blow up in the credit markets?"

(Ed would turn up a couple hours later on Closing Bell and call the tariff backpedaling a "positive development for the economy.")

Steve Weiss predicted a "wider gap" in credit spreads. Bryn Talkington said that credit spreads haven't "remotely become unhinged," so Bryn thinks it's a "leap" to suggest some kind of blow-up is looming.

Judge said we have to "assume" there will be tariff deals, but he made a curious analogy, saying, "If the arsonist becomes the firefighter who saves the day and gets a win, but half the house is burned down in the process of this whole thing, what are you left with ... investors are left to pick through the rubble. ... You've already burned in some sense the trustworthiness and the credibility of the U.S. ... you've burned the corporate sector, uh, not to mention what you've done with consumer confidence and the like."

Weiss made an even curiouser analogy. "You've got China and the U.S.," Weiss said. "On one side, complete totalitarianism as a rule, that uh, it's either their way or the highway, a, uh, seemingly lack of interest in supporting the working people ... and also cozying up to, or has relationships with uh, with the biggest enemies of the- of the U.S., uh, being Russia and North Korea. And then you have President Xi ... has a lot of the same characteristics."

Joe Terranova declared, "It's a shock to confidence."

Bryn shrugged that, "I know everyone's unhinged (snicker) in thinking that we're gonna go into recession," but people should listen to "the Bessents" (snicker).

Weiss again stressed that this isn't a "single event" like 2020 and 2008. "This uncertainty is going to survive the entire presidency," Weiss said. We'll see what Weiss has to say about Wednesday afternoon's "single event." (This review was posted overnight Wednesday-Thursday.)

The trigger-point mechanism suddenly changed

On Wednesday's (4/9) pre-massive-rally episode of the Halftime Report, Rich Saperstein said "there are 3 things that'll get us to start buying."

Looks like had he just waited an hour or two, he would've only needed 1. (This review was posted overnight Wednesday-Thursday.)

Rich said those 3 things are 1, being "a change in the trigger-point mechanism (snicker) (it means tariffs falling)." The 2nd thing is "fundamentals improve." And the last thing is "individual stock valuation." (Or put another way, when AAPL is selling for $50.)

CNBC's Steve Liesman said "the operative thing" that he's hearing is, "It's not a situation where the Fed would come in."

Joe Terranova concluded from that, "It sounds as if there really is no Fed put." Judge said, "Not yet."

Steve suggested the Fed is saying, "This is not our problem."

Kari Firestone suggested MSFT is replacing AAPL as "the new safe haven."

Josh says Jessica Chastain could play Jenny in a movie

On Tuesday's (4/8) Halftime Report, Jenny Harrington discussed her new book, out Tuesday, called Dividend Investing. (OK, it's not the most exciting title of all time.)

Jenny said she wanted to write a book that was "actually very useful for people," which is better than the alternative. Jenny said from the book, you can "learn about investment behavior" and "learn how to construct a portfolio" and the "research process."

And the third section is a "toggle" between stories about investments that worked and those that didn't.

Josh Brown suggested "Jessica Chastain" could play Jenny in "the movie." (This page does NOT disagree with that suggestion.) "That's very sweet of you," Jenny said.

Josh said he's got a copy of the book and has "already started going through it."

Judge said all profits from the book go to The Council for Economic Education. Jenny said she's on the board.

Josh predicts a winner in the Musk-Navarro showdown

In a discussion of Musk vs. Navarro on Tuesday's (4/8) Halftime Report, Josh Brown described Peter Navarro as "somebody who effectively was plucked from obscurity because Jared Kushner did an Amazon search to find a China hawk economist."

Josh said that in White House debates, "actual business people" will "ultimately win out" over the "theorists."

Addressing AAPL, Jason Snipe said, "If he is able to wave a victory flag on any level" (able to??????), AAPL is among those who "benefit tremendously."

Josh said AAPL stock will be used as a "call option" or "gambit" on the daily battle between the U.S. and China. Josh even said, "It kinda reminds me of the casino names, um, the last time we had like a tariff war with China."

Josh said Tuesday is a "classic bear-market bounce." Josh predicted lower earnings estimates and said the market multiple is still at 18 and observed, "None of this is over."

Jenny Harrington was actually talking about next year's midterms and how being in a bear market won't help the ruling party.

Judge again mentioned that during the pandemic, we got a stimulus "bazooka," a term he's probably going to mention every day for weeks. (At least he didn't bring up Belski's S&P target.) (If he thinks that 2020 was a "bazooka," wait'll he sees the $1,400 $2,000 checks going out with the president's name on them during the next recession.)

How do we know if they ‘all agree’ if Judge didn’t bother to ask?

On Tuesday's (4/8) Halftime Report, Jenny Harrington said she bought RHP. While discussing that stock, Jenny happened to say, "I think we all agree the market probably hasn't bottomed."

Hmmmmmm. Would've been nice if Judge had asked the rest of the panel if that statement was true.

Kari Firestone said she's got a "shopping list" of stocks and that the market is "not homogenous." Kari added to AMZN and said, "They make their money by the dollar amount that they sell." Josh Brown backed that purchase and said he bought AMZN on Friday.

Kari also bought AMAT. Josh mentioned a big AMAT insider purchase.

Kari also bought AXP, saying a lot of "negative news" already has been discounted.

Josh said Jamie Dimon was "notably fairly muted" in his annual shareholder letter.

Judge said NFLX is replacing DIS as the top pick at Morgan Stanley. (This writer is long NFLX.) Jason Snipe again touted the stock. Josh Brown backed that call and said no one in "middle class or, or above" would cancel a subscription, "even through unemployment."

Eamon Javers reported that there's an "inaccurate report" saying Karoline Leavitt said China tariffs went into effect at noon. Javers said he spoke to Leavitt and learned that the tariffs are still scheduled for midnight. Judge harped on the word "scheduled."

Judge said Wells Fargo mentioned OTIS (and MMM) as a "core defensive" play. Josh said, "I think the analyst heard me on TV last week talking about Otis. Because it can't be a coincidence, right."

Judge referred to "Mike Santelli (sic) (snicker)."

Marked by an X: Steve Grasso rockets ahead of the pack for Call of the Year

He might even be running away with it.

When we happened to notice how the letter X traded on Monday (4/7), it suddenly hit us like a ton of bricks: Steve Grasso made a sensational call ... maybe even the Call of the Year. (This writer is long X.)

It began late last year and early in 2025, when Grasso on multiple occasions found himself defending both the Biden and incoming Trump administrations' decison to block the Nippon-U.S. Steel deal.

That may be just a political point of view. Except Steve also contended as far back as Jan. 7 that, while these rejections were knocking the price of X down to roughly $30, "I think you'll see a bailout," and that Donald Trump is "gonna figure out how to get 'em a billion dollars," either through "tax incentives" or "tariffs," or "any way necessary."

Grasso's recommendations to buy X go back at least to December (this writer became long in January), and on Feb. 7, he said it has a "chance" to reach 50.

While the point of this post is not to zing anyone else, it should be noted that panelists will often say it's a "stock-picker's market," and that a Halftime Report panelist has been favoring a different steel stock during this time, has stated he doesn't want that company having anything to do with X, all while that other company has been sliding to 52-week lows. So here you have 2 people on CNBC touting different stocks in the same industry with wildly divergent results. (Either it is a stock-picker's market, or ...)

There's more. On Feb. 27, regarding NVDA, Grasso predicted 90 before 150. The stock that day fell from 131 to 120. And on Monday (4/7), it did indeed find 90 — 86 to be precise.

Now, of course we know that NVDA did not fall to 86 because its own problems. But the prediction was 90 before 150, for a very prominent stock, and that's exactly what happened (assuming it does, at some point, get to 150).

So Grasso might actually be 1-2 by a distant margin so far in the race for Call of the Year.

It's not all roses though. Oddly enough, Steve is also a contender for Bust of the Year, given that on Jan. 24, he declared, "Bitcoin will probably double from here — in short order." It closed at $104,000 that day, according to Yahoo Finance, and apparently peaked 4 days earlier.

Steve Eisman: ‘If reasonable heads prevail, Trump will get pretty much what he wants’

All of those people decrying the gloom and doom from Donald Trump's tariff war (which is basically everyone on CNBC for the past week) perhaps got a bit of a wake-up call from Steve Eisman on Monday's (4/7) Fast Money.

Eisman basically said, convincingly, that Donald Trump has all of the leverage in this battle and that other countries will cave.

"If countries were rational ... Canada and Mexico would come to the United States and basically beg," Eisman explained. "Out of the 35% that Mexico and Canada have of their GDP from exports, 25 points of that 35% is just exports to the United States. Those 2 countries hold no cards. Now, Europe is not much better ... if everybody's rational, they'll lower their barriers."

"If reasonable heads prevail, Trump will get pretty much what he wants," Eisman concluded.

It's a strong point. He could've made it stronger by noting that once Donald Trump started talking up tariffs on Canada (not quite sure when that started), the Trudeau government basically collapsed. If another country threatening tariffs is enough to oust a country's leader, then it seems like maybe there is some significant imbalance here.

But in repeatedly saying "rational" and "reasonable," Steve may be overlooking a lot of other countries' politics ... and whether some might be spurred into different alliances, like, um, Xi visiting Ottawa.

Eisman carefully did not express an opinion on whether the tariff war is a good thing for America. He did, however, multiple times try to claim who it's good for.

"There are parts of this country that were- have been devastated over the last 25 years because of free trade," Eisman said. "They didn't just lose their jobs. They lost their towns."

Did anyone on the panel ask Eisman what these "devastated" communities are in which whole "towns" were "lost"? (And stressing "devastated" by NAFTA and WTO, not "devastated" for some other reason.)

Nope.

Mel asked Eisman if tariff domination is "worth the pain that we're going through in the markets." Steve said "people in the markets" such as himself have "lost plenty," and those in towns who lost jobs to offshoring are "cheering."

Guy Adami said it's hard to say the U.S. is "getting ripped off," as the president says, when we're 5% of the global population and 30% of the global economy. Eisman said in "parts of this country ... it doesn't look so good."

Was it looking so much better in 2017-2020?

Yet again, no one asked him which "parts of this country" he's talking about, other than he said "Midwest" about 500 times.

Eisman added, "I find it amusing that the new prime minister of Canada has been so belligerent. When you have 25% of your GDP ... in the form of exports to the United States, you should act a little more kindly. ... You're not holding too many cards."

Well, unlike Mel's panel, we've got an answer for that one — the previous prime minister went to Mar-a-Lago. He was quickly out of a job.

In more of a statement than a question, Dan Nathan pointed out U.S. tech dominance and questioned how AAPL could build all its iPhones in the U.S. Steve played along and again mentioned people in the Midwest, "and you don't have a job, and your town's devastated."

Dan said, "Steve, these are gonna be the first people that are fired," citing Stellantis. Steve, who made a strong comparison about the percentage of U.S. GDP from exports vs. export GDP of other countries, said "the U.S. will suffer the least" in a trade war and said for the 3rd time that Canada doesn't "have many cards to play," and the same is true for Europe and Mexico.

Interesting, then, that the United Auto Workers endorsed Kamala Harris for president.

So basically, we agree with Eisman's numbers. We're not so sure about his political history.

Mel said, "There's still a half a million manufacturing jobs open in the United States." Tim Seymour noted "record unemployment."

Earlier in the show, Dan Nathan said he can't "envision" the stock market approaching the highs in 2025.

For more than a half-hour, Judge tries to badger Brian into lowering his S&P target (a/k/a imagine panelists getting Judge to sit down with their clients)

You'd think they would've had plenty of other things to talk about.

On Monday's (4/7) Halftime Report, the Forever Bullishness of some panelists (let's admit it, a majority of 'em) was starting to wear thin on Judge.

Early into the show, Judge said he's "frankly struck" by Brian Belski keeping his S&P target at 6,700. (Boy, was Judge ever "struck.")

Belski, who at one point indicated he works at Piper, first said he's humbled and "excessively fortunate" to be able to be on CNBC on a day like Monday. Belski said the term he'd use for the market is "unfortunate."

Judge haggled with Belski over whether the recent market activity is based on "fundamentals," as Judge asserted it has "everything" to do with fundamentals while Belski said COST membership hasn't changed and the iPhone operating system hasn't changed.

Judge said we've never had the "almost willingness" by a president to lop $11 trillion off the stock market, "ever." Belski said that's why this is "unfortunate."

Belski then insisted, "Now's the time for humility."

"You don't sound humble," Judge said, before clarifying, "The strength of your voice sounds like there's humility in it (snicker), but your, your, your narrative doesn't sound humble at all. It sounds, um, like refusing to see the facts in front- in front of you."

"No, we don't know exactly what the facts are, quite frankly," Belski said, before adding, "I'm sorry if you don't think I'm humble, because I'm actually quite humble, Scott. And- and you would know this if you'd actually sit with our clients and, and talk to us about how we've been in terms of longer term."

Jim Lebenthal, who might've been Judge's prime target if Belski weren't on the show, argued that Cleveland-Cliffs stock can get to 27 dollars the "worst-case scenario" is being priced in, then he said that some may say "maybe we're not fully priced into a recession." Judge cut in, "There's not a 'maybe.' We're not." Jim insisted that "historical patterns" of 1, 3, 6, 12 months from now "all point higher."

Leslie Picker cut in to say Larry Fink was giving remarks at a conference (apparently he wasn't asked about "American Beauty" or "Terrapin Station," or at least that portion wasn't covered on CNBC) and was "pretty sanguine" about the past week and suggested longer term, this is more of a buying opportunity than selling opportunity.

Judge then returned to Belski and Brian's comments about being humble and said if Brian says he's humble, then he's humble. "I apologize for suggesting that you're not. Um, it's not for me to say that you're humble or not."

But Judge said Brian seems "a bit defiant" about the "different" environment we're in.

"Thank you for that," Belski said, before adding, "I don't think it's different this time."

Steve Liesman, though, moments later, said, "I would argue that Brian ... it's different this time, at least right now, in that the Fed is a little hampered in coming in."

Belski said his outlook has "nothing to do with the Fed cutting rates," it's about markets "normalizing and unskewing all of the silliness that's gone on." Belski predicted a "more normalized" path for 3-5 years.

Leslie then cut in again and reported that Larry Fink said that "most" of the CEOs he's talked to think we're "probably" in recession right now.

Then, after the 3rd or 4th go-round on Belski's target, Brian told Judge he won't "react" to everyone changing their target and stated, "I can't announce on international television that we're gonna change our target."

Judge taunted that if we have a recession, maybe then Belski would take the numbers down. Brian even pushed back on that, stating that if we're in a recession now, the Fed would probably be cutting, and "the market's gonna be rallying."

More than halfway through, we started to get concerned that Judge wouldn't even be airing a commercial (#SpinCo #gottapaythebills).

Judge asked Belski what would turn him negative. Brian suggested "continued treacherous, um, behavior."

Jim suggests people in power are being ‘a little bit careless’

In other news ... Joe Terranova at the top of Monday's (4/7) Halftime Report declared it's an "awful environment." Joe said you should "study how much risk you have" (snicker) and make sure you're not "beyond the boundaries" of your comfort level.

Joe said, "The violence of the last several days has to abate."

Judge and Santoli pointed out all the dueling headlines, "negotiable, non-negotiable ..."

Jim Lebenthal said he started nibbling on C. Jim took issue with the "seeming 100% probability" some people seem to have about a recession. Jim noted it's been "3 years" since Jamie Dimon's "hurricane."

Jim even added, "I feel like some of the people in positions of power are being, um, just a little bit careless in what they're saying."

CNBC airs live footage of Jay Powell comparing Grateful Dead albums (he prefers anything made from late ’60s-mid-’70s over the stuff that came later)

On Friday (4/4), the Halftime Report opened with live footage of Jerome Powell speaking to some group known as The Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing.

Evidently, they're into advancing Dick's Picks (a subject that cropped up), as shortly after the time the Halftime Report came on and a few questions about tax cuts and nervous clients and economic indicators were fielded, viewers heard Powell being asked, "'American Beauty,' or 'Terrapin Station.'"

"'American Beauty'," Powell said. "That's my era."

A woman marveled at Powell's answer. "Not even a pause," the woman said.

Powell was also asked, "'Workingman's Dead' or 'Europe '72.'"

"Both," Jay said.

"'Touch of Grey,' what do you think," was the last question on this subject.

"It was their only hit, but, it's a good song," Jay explained.

Jay said "I don't have any Dick's Picks" and relayed that in the late '60s to mid-'70s, "I saw 'em a bunch of times, and I can- I know every note on every song from that era. But since then, I've been busy, actually."

As soon as we get the declaration that this was the greatest economic policy initiative in world history, it’ll be time to buy

Judge on Friday's (4/4) Halftime Report wasn't in the mood at all to talk about the Grateful Dead (even though Steve Liesman appeared on the broadcast), but he did get a speech from Steve Weiss.

"I have no market exposure at this point at all. I'm completely hedged out," Weiss said. "So market goes up, I don't make money; market goes down, I don't lose money."

Weiss said that apparently people looked "side-eyed" (snicker) when he (claimed he) said "since he was elected" that "Trump will not be good for markets, will not be good for the economy. That's in fact turned out to be true."

Weiss added, "The U.S. has gone from hunter to prey" (snicker).

Weiss asserted, "The Fed can't do anything. There is no Trump put. Trump's not gonna back away." (Um, maybe not ... but he is going to declare the greatest victory in the history of the universe.) (Just think — Howard Lutnick is point man of the Greatest Triumph in Universal History.)

Judge said Jeremy Siegel thinks this is the "biggest policy mistake in 95 years."

Jim Lebenthal, almost as bullish as Stephanie Link genrally is, stated, "Clearly the risks have risen extraordinarily." Jim said Thursday and Friday's price action "is the market's way of embracing all of the negative, and not even the slightest possibility that this could work."

Jim said "this" refers to "the new economic ideology" (snicker).

Jim said he was at a client dinner Thursday night with 25 clients, many of them business owners. Jim said they just want to know the "rules of the road" (snicker) (um, it's called a declaration of victory) and "It may take time." Jim said he's not calling a bottom, but he doesn't want to sell with the S&P down 15%.

Kyle Bass told Sully on Power Lunch that the tariffs are "akin to a currency devaluation" and said everyone knows the debt needs to be reduced and this will do it.

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso said it's a "good spot" to nibble, while Carter Worth said he'd "resist the tempatation" to buy.

‘No Americans want those jobs’

Bryn Talkington on Friday's (4/4) Halftime Report said she bought NKE on Thursday, based on Vietnam.

Bryn said "whoever made that board that Trump had out should be fired." Bryn said Vietnam doesn't have a "90% tariff," rather it's "5%." Bryn predicted a "reckoning" between the U.S. and Vietnam. Bryn said NKE could get to $70 "pretty quickly."

Then, Bryn made a statement about the U.S. workforce: "We do not want to import these types of manufacturing to America. No Americans want those jobs."

Jason Snipe said "a number of names" have been "punched in the mouth," and he pointed to AAPL's tumble as "somewhat overblown."

Steve Weiss explained that he's short the Q's as a hedge against his long positions in META and "some of the other, uh, Mag 7."

"This is not a buy the news event," Weiss said, his new refrain of about, oh, 3-4 days (since he was saying the opposite the prior week), because it's not a "single instance" of ... something or other. (As if we all knew in 2008 or 2016 exactly when that "uncertainty" would end.)

Jim Lebenthal said, "The emails that were coming into me yesterday, the calls I was getting, were frankly reminisicent of the fall of 2008. It's always unprecedented." Jim cautioned against getting out of the market, stating that if you miss the 50 best days of the market, "you cut your returns dramatically."

Josh Brown bought RKT, which was up when he spoke about it during the program. Jim asked Josh whether all the youngsters in the market who have unlimited time horizons are "buying quality." Late in the show, Judge asked Jim why he sold UNH, which he's recently been saying is "quality." Jim said he's "not talking out of both sides of my mouth," rather, "this is an offensive move." It's a move to "free up some cash" so he can buy some things.

Has the trade deficit with Vietnam been keeping anyone up at night?

We're not sure it solved anything.

But Steve, Tim and Mel brought their A game — and an outstanding conversation about tariffs, in general, took place on Thursday's (4/3) Fast Money. (And the lack of resolution on the show was a great indicator of why everyone is kind of uncertain as to what this all means.)

Steve Grasso stated that "there's a $1.2 trillion trade deficit," and Steve asked the group, what do we do about that. "There's no wrong answers," Steve assured.

Tim Seymour said "there could be wrong answers" and asked, "Is the presumption that a deficit is bad."

Steve suggested that Donald Trump merely wants "an equal playing field," citing car tariffs in Europe vs. car tariffs in the U.S.

Mel observed, "What is the goal here ... because we are- a deficit symbolizes a very strong economy, that our citizens can buy a lot of stuff from other people."

Tim said he's all for using "leverage," but "I'm not sure I want to reindustrialize our economy. I'm- I'm not sure also that a trade deficit with Vietnam is something that keeps me up at night."

Tim added, "A trade deficit to me is the sign of prosperity and buying power." Steve said, "We do buy 35% of the world's goods."

Brad Gerstner complains of ‘fake news’ being spread about CRWV (but then insists it didn’t come from CNBC)

Thursday's (4/3) Halftime Report had numerous impressive conversations.

The problem was, there were so many of them, with hardly any commercials, we practically got wiped out just trying to jot it all down.

Late in the show, around Final Trade time, the conversation with Brad Gerstner (which started right after the A block) moved on to Coupang and Coreweave.

Brad acknowledged he was a "large buyer" (Judge's term) of the latter's IPO. Then Brad complained "there was a lot of, I think, um, uh, you know, fake news about the company heading into the IPO," including being "wholly dependent on Microsoft."

Moments later, Judge said he gets why Brad likes the name but protested, "I think it's a little unfair though to suggest that, you know, questions about the company's debt and questions about potential depreciation of assets and questions about concentrated relationships as you used the words (sic plural) 'fake,' I mean, those are legit questions that need to be asked. Come on."

"I knew that was gonna get ya," Brad said. "Poor choice of words Scott. Um, you know, I think there were reasonable questions and, and, and, and good stuff asked about the company, um, I just saw a lot of stuff that was, shall I say, ill-informed, in terms of the depreciation schedule, et cetera. So, um, uh, but listen, the questions I heard you and Faber and others asking on CNBC, I think those are totally fair questions."

Brad says commentary by Fed’s Philip Jefferson is ‘ridiculous’

Steve Liesman on Thursday's (4/3) Halftime Report delivered breaking news on Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson, who apparently said, according to Steve, "current policy is well-positioned to deal with risks and the uncertainties out there. There is no need, he says, to hurry and make further policy adjustments."

Steve decided there was "nothing really huge here from Jefferson on the backside of these tariffs from yesterday."

But Brad Gerstner, whose interview with Judge was interrupted for this news, stated, "That comment- I love Steve; that commentary out of Jefferson is ridiculous. The guy's lookin' in the rear-view mirror, not through the windshield."

Brad said, "The Fed will find itself behind the curve, just like they were behind the curve in the summer of 2021." Brad's "certain" that there's "some alarm bells going off at the Fed today."

Brad asserted, "Look at the betting markets today -- the risk of recession is exploding."

Jenny says people who thought they ‘missed out’ last year on big returns should be happy with how well they’re doing this year

Thursday's (4/3) Halftime Report included an interesting portfolio assessment by Jenny Harrington.

Jenny tried to make the argument that "most people's portfolios are already positioned" for what happened this week.

Jenny said she was "really upset" last year about getting "I missed out" calls from clients. She said that happened because most people are "balanced" in "strategies like what Ritholtz manages." (Translation: Jenny's sick of hearing from people wondering why she won't invest in tech stocks and has been warning for 15 years running that they're overpriced.)

Jenny added, "So last year's pain with respect to relative underperformance, is this year's gain with re- respect to relative outperformance."

"I don't think so," Judge countered. "I do not think that most portfolios with all due respect are positioned for what we got yesterday. I do not."

"I think they are," Jenny insisted.

"I do not," Judge said.

The mention of "Ritholtz" (Barry) natrually brought in Josh Brown, who explained that Monday night, they informed their 4,000 client households that Ritholtz's "Goaltender" strategy, "it's proprietary, it's in-house," was making a "tactical shift" from "100% U.S. large-cap equity, which had been its positioning since October of 2023 to 60% T-bills, um, and 40% U.S. large-cap equity. ... We use that strategy so that our core models don't have to change."

Josh said those core models include international, tech, utilities. "It's behavioral," Josh said.

We're not really sure what Goaltender has to do with how Ritholtz clients are doing this week, but whatever.

‘This is probably the worst it’s going to get’

Judge on Thursday's (4/3) Halftime Report aired clips of Donald Trump touting tariffs since the 1990s as evidence that those tariffs are not "going to zero" anytime soon.

Joe Terranova said "anyone's guessing" as to what "degree" tariffs are negotiated.

Jenny Harrington though opined, "I think that we can probably say, that with respect to tariffs ... this is probably the worst it's going to get."

Josh Brown pointed to BRK-B and NFLX as companies doing OK Thursday, NFLX even green while Brown spoke.

Joe said he's personally buying the TLT and bonds.

Judge brought up that Josh bought Otis while many stocks were "taking an elevator down today." Josh said, "You're the best in the biz, Judge!"

Joe mentioned buying AMZN at 194 and, "I'm wondering if I bought the wrong Mag 7," that "maybe the right Mag 7 to buy is Microsoft."

Joe: ‘Earnings recession’ is a possibility

Judge in the intro to Thursday's (4/3) Halftime Report helpfully told viewers what was "front and center" (um, who knows, maybe some folks didn't actually know).

Josh Brown said that 2 weeks ago on a Thursday, he said, "we're basically in a bear market" ... Josh said what's "different" about why this announcement isn't a "clearing event" is because "it's not a market event."

Josh said that when we get the outlook from CEOs, "The forward guidance is almost gonna be like a 'Saturday Night Live' skit."

As for Wednesday's announcement, "It's not a clearing event," Brown reiterated, along with "bear market."

Judge said Krinsky thinks we might be getting near "real capitulation signals" but doesn't think "we're done with the correction broadly." Joe Terranova said we don't have the "visibility" to make forecasts on "universal conviction" about the market bottom.

Joe said an "earnings recession" is a "real potential (sic redundant) possibility."

Brad: Group of 10 CEOs all think ‘this is a huge mistake’

Brad Gerstner joined Thursday's (4/3) Halftime Report after the A Block and observed that March 26, 2020, was "when we troughed" from COVID. "Ironically (sic incorrect use of 'ironically,' meant 'coincidentally'), the last 35 days, the Nasdaq is down over 10%, which is the same as it was down in that period of time."

"We've been very negatively positioned," Brad said, in fact the most ever for Altimeter over the last 30 days, he said.

Brad said what we got on tariffs was "even bigger than the high end that Peter Navarro, um, and Howard Lutnick had been, uh, you know, conditioning the market to expect."

Brad said he talked with "probably 10 CEOs" overnight and "to a one, they think this is a huge mistake. They think this is too much" and that tariffs will have "lasting and cascading negative, uh, uh, repercussions."

Had Weiss been there, he would’ve noted that robotaxis need humans to get the vehicles serviced and that the robotaxi companies will have to pay for insurance

Judge on Thursday's (4/3) Halftime Report dialed back a bit to the past in his chat with Brad Gerstner, stating he remembered his conversation with Brad on election night in which Brad said, according to Judge, "GDP incredibly strong, the fastest-growing economy in the world, the most innovative economy in the world, our national advantage has never been greater. We see the 10-year backing up, why, because the market is saying 'We think the economy is gonna grow faster than we thought before. And if Trump gets elected, we think those tax cuts will provide further stimulus, so we're not gonna need as many rate cuts. So I think the backdrop looks incredibly constructive."

Judge twice said that was "5 months" ago. Brad explained, "We took down our exposure at the end of January and early February."

On tariffs, Brad said "fair trade" would mean "bilateral negotiations with our partners." Brad said this is a "self-inflicted wound" or "own goal" from the administration.

Judge noted that Brad added NVDA. Brad gave a speech and then noted semiconductors are on the "list of exceptions."

Judge noted that when out in San Francisco, Brad told CNBC "exclusively" that he sold UBER and bought TSLA. Brad said he wasn't "big" into either name and explained how he bought a Model S in December; "it drives me everywhere ... I don't touch the steering wheel." Brad said robotaxis are coming, and "I think this does pose a risk, fundamentally, to the Uber business model."

Josh Brown cut in as the show was getting late and argued that "the consumer wants the lowest price and the fastest pickup when they summon any ride-hailing situation (sic)" and noted what UBER and TSLA stocks have done this year. Brad said "that's a very fair point" and said he sold UBER close to 80.

In the morning on Money Movers, Wilbur Ross (who was once a figure in the tariff storm) predicted "a transfer of wealth and income from Asia to Latin America."

TSLA ‘permanent damage’:
Weiss says yes, Bill says no

Squeezed in among the AMZN-TikTok reports on Wednesday's (4/2) Halftime Report was a conversation about Musk-DOGE, frankly one of the show's best discussions in months, as Bill Baruch argued that there isn't permanent damage to TSLA, Steve Weiss argued that there is, and Dan Ives sounded somewhere in the middle.

Judge mentioned reports of Elon Musk leaving DOGE soon. Dan Ives dialed in and said, "I think clock struck midnight for Musk."

Dan asserted that when Musk leaves DOGE, "This stops Tesla over time from becoming a political symbol," which, according to Dan, has "been a hundred-dollar, at least, overhang on the stock."

Dan said "there's definitely some permanent damage" to TSLA from DOGE, but given the company's potential, Dan views it as a "dark chapter relative to Tesla."

Bill Baruch said this is the "right time" for Musk to exit the White House, but Joe Terranova said he's not sure how TSLA sentiment "reverses." Joe pointed out that this administration isn't into EVs like the last one, so "this might be ceremonial more than anything else."

Steve Weiss asserted "the brand damage here is permanent" and "there are many other options outside the U.S." in EVs. Weiss pointed out that "Budweiser still hasn't recovered ... from their, you know, basically flawed advertising."

That's an interesting point. It seems like 2 different problems. The beer space in general (check out the stocks) has really slumped. But we do think there's some kind of overhang on Budweiser.

Bill insisted that TSLA has important "data" and that "I don't think there's permanent damage here." Weiss said, "We'll disagree on that."

Weiss says TikTok isn’t one of AMZN’s ‘vanity projects’

Wednesday's (4/2) Halftime Report delved into reports of AMZN's interest in TikTok.

Steve Weiss said Andy Jassy has "gotten rid of all the vanity projects from Jeff Bezos, who was a great CEO." But Weiss thinks Amazon's TikTok interest is "not just a throwaway vanity project."

Weiss suggested any impact on META is "inconsequential" and already priced into the stock because people assume TikTok is going to remain in the U.S.

Bill Baruch said AMZN is "well-positioned" to make TikTok a success; he later made the stock his Final Trade.

The AMZN-TikTok report actually brought David Faber to Post 9 (actually he was surely already there earlier in the day) for Halftime; David did not have a scoop but said he's hearing that there may be a TikTok announcement on Wednesday. He told Weiss that another 90-day extension of the TikTok saga would seem possible.

Weiss referred to "Eric and Donny Jr."

Rob Sechan said the Mag 7 companies are competing with each other for assets "in this space" and that if AMZN gets a TikTok deal, it would be an "incremental (snicker) positive."

Bill: Bears are ‘a little offsides’ (a/k/a ‘heightened degree of uncertainty’)

Joe Terranova wondered at the top of Wednesday's (4/2) Halftime Report, "I just don't understand how anyone can have such universal conviction in either direction. I literally (sic) think we're setting up for a pillow fight between bulls and bears."

Joe said his exposure to equities is "not in technology; it's not in the Mag 7."

On tariffs, etc., Rob Sechan said the potential "upside" from the announcement is only "probably a rebound to recent highs."

Bill Baruch though suggested the auto tariff announcement last week "helped flush things down" and "I think people are becoming a little offsides in, in not pricing for upside."

Steve Weiss said he doesn't think the market is "really oversold here," even if there's typically a relief rally, but even if there is a relief rally, "you do have the impact of inflation."

As for stock updates, Bill sold ALAB, CDE, MBLY and MPC. As for CDE, Bill said gold is "likely to pull back a bit."

Joe added to TLT.

Judge said Stifel reiterated a buy on NOW but cut the price target. Judge got the panel to say in unison "all at once" that there's a "heightened degree of uncertainty."

Joe said NTRS can have the "pause that refreshes" though Wolfe cut the target.

Rob still likes CMA even though Raymond James cut the price target.

Judge offered a quarterly report on panelist holdings; Bill's top name is T. Rob's biggest winner was BABA.

Dan Nathan suggests NMAX trading is great for SpinCo

On Tuesday's (4/1) Fast Money, the gang took up the extraordinary rise of NewsMax stock.

Dan Nathan decided the trading activity in NMAX was a positive for America's favorite business channel, stating, "This is great for the parent spinoff of CNBC and MSNBC, SpinCo, because if you're gonna value things like that, my mom told me if you have nothing good to say, don't say anything."

But Dan suggested, if he were Chris Ruddy, "I'd make a bid for SpinCo right now ... I'd use my stock."

Karen Finerman said of NMAX, "It's insane!" and "similar to DJT."

Mel said, "Genius that they only sold it to retail."

Stephanie Link says the ‘tariff thing’ is so overdone

Forever Bull Stephanie Link, who basically thinks this is Morning in America, declared early on Tuesday's (4/1) Halftime Report, "By the way, I think people are so overdone on this tariff thing. I mean, I think we're absolutely pricing in universal tariffs of 20%. You get anything less than that tomorrow, I do think it's a clearing event."

Link also said, "I've been right in terms of, the- the consumer has held up remarkably well."

Link said she's at 1% in cash: "I just see opportunities in stocks all over the place."

Judge said, "Tom Lee has this view that it's gonna be a clearing event, that it's gonna be Liberation Day all right — uh for the uncertainty. That that's gonna be liberated, if, if nothing else."

But Judge said Chris Harvey sees "no liberation from the uncertainty."

Jim Lebenthal offered, "It could be a clearing event," but nobody should take that for granted. "But I do believe that it probably will be a clearing event."

Jim also said that if the rhetoric continues, economic numbers will worsen. But if we "finish with the tariffs" (snicker) (well, actually, right now we're at war with Canada, Denmark and the Venezuelan Tren gang, and tariffs are part of that, and we're getting tired of Ukraine-Russia, but at some point we'll move on to the wall and Justice Department and boosting the stock market) and move on to things companies want, like cutting corporate tax rates, they'll feel better about "retaining and even expanding their work force."

Josh Brown, who was the least enthusiastic of the 3 panelists, contended that "it's about more than just the tariffs," and he doesn't know how it's "possible" that we're "done" with them tomorrow, because "then we have to live with them."

Josh said "the 10-year is saying, 'Don't believe in this clearing-event narrative." Josh noted airline stocks have been "absolutely crushed."

Josh had opened with an observation about "deeply oversold pockets all over the market." But, "I think something technically is broken here."

He added, "The consumer has to hold up. A lot of economists are now pointing to a deterioration in the consumer metrics."

CLF hits 52-week low

Judge on Tuesday's (4/1) Halftime Report said Ed Yardeni lowered his target, again, from 6,400 to 6,000 this time.

Judge wondered about LYV's reax to Monday's ticket scalping executive order and told Josh Brown that "I guess the (sic) Wall Street doesn't really think it's a, a big issue."

Josh said "that would be backwards," as scalpers are "the bane of Ticketmaster's existence."

Stephanie Link trimmed CRWD ("up like 90% in the name") to put dollars into PANW. Josh said he doesn't "disagree" on PANW, but Josh is a "best of breed guy."

Stephanie also bought META after apparently selling it a long time ago. "I made a lot of money. I was buyin' it in the 90s, right, Scott. I sold it at 350."

Jim Lebenthal was surprised to find how low Alphabet's multiple is, stating "17.6 is overdone by a lot."

Josh conceded RDDT got "absolutely hammered in Q1" after previously skyrocketing. It's great that he admits it got clobbered, but what happened to this tailwind of 20 years of gibberish that all the AI models want to read ...

Weiss tries to claim whatever he was doing from 2008 to 2010 is relevant in April 2025

Near the top of Monday's (3/31) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal offered a stark revelation about his perception of the financial markets.

"I'm not comfortable ... things can get worse. ... It's this tariff uncertainty. ... I'm as uncomfortable as I've been in years," Jim said.

Joe Terranova asserted, "The personality of the market has changed dramatically over the last 8 weeks." Invoking hockey, Joe said you don't want to be in "power play" mode, but "penalty kill" mode. (Dennis Gartman and Fish used to call that risk on/risk off.)

Steve Weiss recapped the previous thoughts on the desk about April 2 being a buy-the-news-day, and apparently is now thinking otherwise, and in the process, Weiss ran headlong into some skepticism from Judge. Comparing today with Brexit and Donald Trump's 2016 election, Weiss stated, "This is different," claiming those were "one-off events," while right now, the administration is causing "havoc."

Weiss expressed skepticism that there's some grand plan to lower rates. Judge insisted the administration cares about the economy. But Weiss said, "They don't care about it near-term."

Weiss made some curious analogy about an offensive coordinator practicing a pass play during the week, and "9 times out of 10 in practice," it's a touchdown, but in a real game, it's a "toss-up," a possible touchdown, incompletion or interception.

"My call is, it's an interception," Weiss said.

Jim knocked market timing and said this is "exactly the wrong time to be selling."

Weiss took issue with Jim's "market timing" comments. Weiss went on to explain that he "did very well ... coming out of '08, but I didn't do very well until 2010, because I was short going into 2008, so I'm- couldn't make the turn. I flattened out but I couldn't make the turn. ... It's not called market timing. It's called preservation of capital. It's called controlling risk."

OK. It's NOT timing the market.

Judge argued with Weiss, correctly, that the White House is aware that it can change the tariff narrative in an instant, and the market would respond. (Tip: One of these days, he'll get tired of tariffs and an underwater stock market.) Weiss protested, "I don't know what he knows or what he doesn't know ... you're giving him more credit than I am. It's not Democrats, it's not Republican, it's just facts about what's going on. 200% tariffs one day, later in the afternoon, 'No, just a joke.'"

Judge suggested the prospect of deregulation and tax cuts maybe "outweighs" what Weiss is talking about. Weiss insisted "I think that the uncertainty stays."

On Monday's Fast Money, Karen Finerman pointed to the VIX. "The VIX will not stay around here, right? We're gonna see it higher before we see it lower. And so, this is sort of no-man's land."

Joe claims ‘significant’ underperformance by the Mag 7 for the entire year

In the 19th minute of Monday's (3/31) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova made this statement. "At the end of the day, if you're chasing beta and you're worried about the S&P, I think you're going to be very disappointed. Because I do think the Mag 7 are going to significantly underperform the other 493 this year."

(We'll see how long Joe is wedded to that theory.)

Judge noted that hedge funds have been unloading tech in high numbers. Jim Lebenthal suggested that there's been "good old-fashioned profit taking."

Joe reiterated, "I think it's the Year of the Bond" (snicker).

Judge said Wells reiterated an "overweight" on TTD. Joe said TTD is in the JOET but he doesn't know how anyone could have an "overweight" on TTD. Judge wondered if Joe would put a sell on it "Now????" Joe said, "How low is low. It can keep going lower."

Judge also asked Joe about APP. Joe said the "strategy" went into APP last July at 76. He (sorta) joked that he's been wondering if it'll give back all of the gain before the JOET can get out of it. He said the 200-day is down to 217. Joe said we may not be "completely washed out just yet on momentum as a factor."

Joe said he personally bought AMZN a couple weeks ago at 194; "I wish I didn't buy it."

Steve Weiss yet again talked about the strengths of NFLX but allowed, "I'm not adding to it here." (This writer is long NFLX.)

Jim said he continues to scratch his head about the reactions to ADBE earnings; "I see tremendous value here ... I'm gonna stick with it."

Weiss said UNH is the "gold standard of being a defensive company."

Jim suggests the uncertainty will get better, unless this administration is ‘absolutely lunicidal’

Early on Friday's (3/28) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal stressed "the facts," which Jim said are that retail sales and industrial production "are still growing," and though we've had a "growth slowdown," this week the market's just doing a "classic retest of the bottom."

Then, Jim got into the governance of U.S. foreign policy.

"It makes no sense. If presidential policy is to now crush the profits of the companies who employ your base. Makes no sense. At least not to me. So is he nuts? I don't think so," Jim said. "He's gettin' all of the bad stuff out of the way early, so he can get to the good stuff, not just extending the tax cut."

Judge wondered if the "bad stuff" has a more "punitive effect" on the economy than Jim's suggesting. Judge said, "I talked to a very big money manager this morning who says the market's delusional right now, that 20's crazy in this environment."

Judge also said the WSJ reported that "Trump warned U.S. automakers not to raise prices in response to tariffs."

Kevin Simpson suggested that the risk of economic confidence could be a "self-fulfilling prophecy."

Steve Liesman told Judge, "I can't imagine a tougher position for the Federal Reserve to be in right now," adding that Friday's data showed "goods inflation is now part of the problem."

Jim said, "Unless this presidential administration is absolutely lunicidal (sic), then I think they have to take the, the uncertainty down."

Stephanie claims ‘We all expected’ a slowdown since January

Undaunted by Friday's market slide, Forever Bull Stephanie Link on the (3/28) Halftime Report advised, "Now is the time to actually get your pencils out."

Then Stephanie got Judge's attention in claiming, "We have been talking about a slowdown in the economy since January. We all expected it."

"We did?? Wait- wait- wait- wait- wait- wait- wait- wait- wait- (not totally sure about the number of 'waits')," Judge said. "I don't think people expected it on January 1st, Steph, come on now."

Stephanie insisted she did. "I have been talking about a slowdown in the economy since the beginning of January because the fiscal stimulus that has been put in place over the last several years is just not gonna happen this year," Stephanie said.

Stephanie said there's a "pretty good chance" that next week, "we actually could rally."

NVDA finding takers

The market may have been sliding Friday (3/28), but it seemed like everyone on the Halftime Report has been scooping up tech stocks.

Jim Lebenthal bought more NVDA, citing what he says is an "almost 23" forward multiple. Malcolm Ethridge also bought more NVDA, saying the stock is at a "great positioning point" and is trading at a "severe discount."

Malcolm also bought AMZN and MSFT. Jim said he added to MSFT a couple weeks ago and acknowledged that there's been "concerns about the capex expenditures" (translation: How much it's sending to Nvidia).

Kevin Simpson bluntly said his "worst-case scenario" has been a 20% market drop, or another 10% from where we're at, and Kevin said that'd be a great time to buy great companies and that some great companies are already down more than 20%.

So Judge asked Kevin about selling TSLA. Kevin said it was a trade that "made a lot of money."

Malcolm also bought more CRWD and PANW. (This writer is long CRWD.) He said cyber spending is a "non-negotiable" expenditure for a lot of companies. He also bought more SPOT, stating Spotify is "just a couple years behind where Netflix is."

Kevin said he got stopped out of TOST at $36.

Malcolm bought PYPL on the strength of Venmo. Kevin bought AMGN after it was called away March 7. Kevin also bought HWM, a stock probably never mentioned on the show before. Kevin likened this purchase to his TPL buy.

Malcolm sold the XLF at the open Friday, questioning how long he'd have to wait for that trade to work. Judge noted CLSA has gone from 6,600 to 5,800.

Steve Grasso explains how Mary Barra can turbocharge GM stock

On Thursday's (3/27) Fast Money, guest host Sully asked the panel about the tariff situation.

Steve Grasso stated, "We don't know if they're ever gonna even take place ... He can't say it's a negotiating tactic, because then it's not a negotiating tactic."

Steve suggested that Mary Barra could pledge to build some American plants and get a "carve-out," and then GM will "take off."

Jim: It’s ‘policy chaos’

Judge said at the top of Thursday's (3/27) Halftime Report that Barclays thinks the market is "underpricing trade risks" and advises people to "switch preference to fixed income over equities."

Josh Brown gave credit to fellow Thursday panelist Jim Lebenthal for unloading GM weeks ago, after holding it forever, when word of tariffs came out. Josh pointed out recent headwinds across the board in auto stocks.

Jim said he likes GM, but "they can't get out of the way of this." (Ah, Jim should be listening to Steve Grasso.)

Jim said "it is policy chaos," and "we need some finality."

It’s a bear market, Josh insists

On Thursday's (3/27) Halftime Report, Judge said SocGen has decided we already might be "in a new bear market."

Josh Brown said, "I called this a bear market 2 weeks ago, um, possibly prematurely." Josh affirmed, "That's what we're in right now, and I don't think it's over."

Josh said that in 2018, we had tariff concerns sinking the market through February, then a recovery before more tariff concerns at the end of the year. Josh said we can be in a bear market without a recession, and that we didn't have a recession in 2018.

Josh reiterated, "I think we're in a bear market right now ... The median stock is in its own individual bear market." Josh said health care has caught a bid, but those stocks aren't "big enough" to carry the market.

Leslie Picker told Judge that the conversation about the Coreweave IPO is "changing very rapidly."

Shannon Saccocia said business confidence is a "much better leading indicator of activity" than consumer confidence. Shannon said optimism remains high in the longer term.

Josh says HOOD’s wealth management is ‘like gas-station sushi’

Kate Rooney on Thursday's (3/27) Halftime Report provided an update on Robinhood's new products related to wealth management. Its robo-advisor charges 0.25% annual management fee, and there's a $250 cap for Robinhood Gold subscribers.

Josh Brown said wealth management is regarded as the "crown jewel" business among financial companies. Josh said HOOD is "incredible" at finding new users, but "it's a horrible business, though; $250 for a quote-unquote wealth management. That's like gas-station sushi."

Brown said "what's more interesting" is HOOD's acquisition of RIA custody business (Zzzzzzzzz).

In other matters, Josh said ZS has joined the best stocks in the market list, though he doesn't own it.

Joe actually claims 2025 is the year of ‘ownership of bonds’

Judge opened Wednesday's (3/26) Halftime Report saying Bloomberg is reporting that "The president is preparing auto tariff announcement as soon as Wednesday" and that the market "moved" on that report.

Judge said Alan Blinder wrote an op-ed "entitled" (sic meant 'titled') in the WSJ, "Trump plays Rush- uh, Recession Roulette with the U.S. economy. Trump plays Recession Roulette with the U.S. economy."

Joe Terranova correctly said probably no one knows where the S&P equal weight is, but that's where the market should be "focused." Joe then claimed 2025 "is about ownership of bonds" and "looking away from the Magnificent 7."

Judge, to his credit, wondered in disbelief, "Ownership of bonds??? ... 3 months into the year ... this is gonna be the year of bonds???"

"Absolutely. I think there's been a dramatic reversal in the way the administration is administering (sic 2 admins) (snicker) fiscal policy and the effect on pricing," Joe said.

Judge asked Kari Firestone whether the bounce we've had is "sustainable." Kari responded, "In a word, I would say, not necessarily (sic 2 words)."

Kari curiously described the market as a "roller coaster in the kiddie park of an amusement park," it's moving "pretty fast" but not a lot of "up" or "down," just "within a range."

Jenny doesn’t see ‘anything good out there’ but is nevertheless buying

Early into Wednesday's (3/26) Halftime Report, when Judge was discussing S&P price targets, Jenny Harrington said "6,600 seems ambitious to me."

Jenny added, "I don't see anything good out there, in the near term," though "I don't see anything terrible either."

After some other commentary from other people (see below), moments later, Judge demanded of Jenny, "Don't tell me you don't like anything ... and then buy more Disney and TripAdvisor."

(Obviously, Judge has forgotten that Jenny either buys DIS all the time, or talks about buying DIS all the time, because it's like New York City, whenever it's down, it's always coming back.)

Jenny protested, "I didn't say I don't like anything."

Judge said, "You did!"

Jenny claimed, "I said worry," and what she likes are "things that are really well-priced."

Jenny claimed that DIS is "highly leveraged to the high-end consumer" who is "very different" than the consumer shopping at Dollar Tree.

Judge bluntly stated, "Disney is leveraged to every consumer."

Jenny argued that "American Express is more of the Disney customer," whereas Discover Card might be more "Dollar General."

In a great question, Joe "ownership of bonds" Terranova demanded to know if Jenny is buying DIS for the "growth story or the value story," because Joe thinks the growth story "went away."

Jenny said her DIS buy is "mean reversion to more of a historical multiple" (snicker).

Jenny went on to say that there are "areas of value" that are "trading at a fraction." Judge said some trade at a fraction "for a reason." Jenny said she's not buying TGT or F.

Judge questioned Jenny's "visibility" on DIS. Jenny said the "fair" (snicker) multiple provides a "decent margin of safety." Judge said the communication services sector is "3rd worst this year" and trying to avoid a "6th straight weekly loss." In came Dom Chu in one of Judge's attempted transitions to a sector recap, with Dom saying DIS is down almost 9% this year and Comcast/SpinCo (he didn't say "SpinCo") is negative on the year.

Jenny said META is her only megacap and it's down 14% from its high. "It might just be a math equation," Jenny said, about META's ... um, earnings growth, apparently. Joe questioned if it's not the META earnings but capex that's reliable.

Eventually we’ll get tired of tariffs and move on to Greenland, the wall ...

Brian Belski announced on Wednesday's (3/26) Halftime Report that "we remain at 6,700. Nobody believes us. And the more people that cut their targets, the better."

Belski noted he's been "underweight the Mag 7 ... that's why our stuff's outperforming this year, and that's why I think our portfolios will continue to outperform."

Joe "ownership of bonds" Terranova asked Belski, "How do you get to 6,600 without the Mag 7." Because if we get to 6,600, "the Mag 7 are a screaming buy right here."

Belski said "parts of the Mag 7 are screaming buys," and "I disagree" that it applies to the whole group. Belski predicted "massive rotation" still into the oversold areas that aren't "necessarily" the Mag 7.

Belski argued with Judge and Jenny Harrington as to whether there are any signs of a "recession." Joe said there are signs of a "slowdown." Belski said a "slowdown" is not a "recession" and that "a 10% correction is not a bear market."

Kari bought HQY and AMGN.

Kari Firestone again talked about KMX, a stock she seems to talk about in every appearance. She likes it.

Jenny bought more SYY and even mentioned RFK Jr. in her explanation for the "huge pullback" in staples.

Joe indicated he "can't wait," then backpedaled a bit, for maybe TTD to come out of the JOET. But Belski suggested the "longer-term thematics" are good.

Dee adds a zero

Late in Tuesday's (3/25) Halftime Report, Dee Bosa reported on a "Bloomberg headline," that Engine Capital has taken a stake in LYFT that Dee indicated was "$500 million."

(During Final Trades, Dee clarified that "a $50 million stake is what we are hearing.")

Judge said "there was really a comeuppance" for stocks such as LYFT when the Fed started hiking rates. Josh Brown suggested AMZN think about buying LYFT; "think about how much money Amazon spends delivering things."

Josh said TSLA should also consider buying LYFT.

Judge predicts show headlines

At the top of Tuesday's (3/25) Halftime Report, Judge said the show's "top story" of the day would be the "U.S. exceptionalism trade."

Stephanie Link said the market overdid it to the upside and is overdoing it to the downside. "I would fade Europe in a heartbeat," Link said.

Judge said, "That's gonna be a headline."

Maybe it would be, except Josh Brown said he doesn't think the Europe trade is over, though he's not chasing it. Josh opined that the "relative rally" is "still somewhat early." Judge also pointed out that Jeffrey Gundlach last Thursday was saying the Europe trade still looks strong.

Jim Lebenthal said he has international allocations for his clients, but "we are not adding to them."

RDDT was basically cut in half after Josh kept gushing about it

Rob Sechan dialed in to Tuesday's (3/25) Halftime Report to say he bought NVDA on Friday.

We have no beef with anyone buying NVDA, as many panelists have recently done, but we'll note that Steve Grasso has made the most provocative argument about the stock, stating that since DeepSeek, the projected AI spending by NVDA's customers quite possibly won't be that large and that Nvidia will have to make cheaper products. (This writer has no position in NVDA.)

Judge said Joe Tsai is warning of "some kind of bubble" in AI data centers. Stephanie Link shrugged that we don't have enough data centers. Jim Lebenthal said he doesn't see a bubble, but if there is one, it's only in the "inflating phase." Jim suggested there are "many ways to play it" such as ORCL or MSFT, which are much more than just AI stocks.

Judge suggested that maybe the bubble risk has "self-corrected."

Later, Santoli said the market's not going to give AI infrastructure stocks as much leash as it used to.

Josh Brown said he bought TOST yet again. Stephanie Link, as she's done every few months for literally years, talked about how BA is finally due for an uptick. Jim bought more LMT. Stephanie said "I'm a buyer" of CMG. Josh conceded RDDT is in a "massive drawdown" from its highs early in the year. He said he still likes it and is staying long but with a "small position." (On Feb. 13, Josh said "they bought the dip" in RDDT, then over $200.)

Judge suggests market will stop ‘paying attention’ to tariff proclamations

On Monday's (3/24) Halftime Report, CNBC's Eamon Javers discussed Venezuela-related tariffs (and actually referred to CNBC's Sara "Eisland" (snicker) before correcting himself).

Judge made a million-dollar observation, wondering if "the market just stops paying attention to a comment here or a comment there" about tariffs.

Eamon said markets love to buy the rumor and sell the news, and that "applies here."

Steve Weiss offered, "I don't disagree with a lot of the policies, I disagree with their- the way they're being communicated, and the way they're being changed back and forth." Judge said "that, in and of itself (snicker), has been the root of the uncertainty."

Joe Terranova wondered about the tax cut packages. Jim Lebenthal said Donald Trump is "softening up the beachheads" for the tax cuts with "all the nasty stuff" about tariffs.

Joe said the administration is "focused" on 2 "economic outcomes," those being lower oil prices and lower interest rates.

Jim, Weiss have a great conversation on national defense

Jim Lebenthal on Monday's (3/24) Halftime Report impressively discussed the Boeing-Lockheed military situation — and ended up having a very constructive conversation with Weiss about the future of military spending.

Steve Weiss asked a great question about shrinking costs in defense as far as combatting drones. Jim said the F-47 is manned and, "We're building F-35s because they're needed. Drones can't do everything."

Weiss said there's a movement toward "cutting back on all the big expenditures." Jim said those are headlines, but budgets aren't reflecting that.

The conversation, which was late in the show and kind of bumping against commercial time, probably could've used more details. Still, both made interesting points: Weiss asserted that military techniques are rapidly changing, while Jim asserted that the budgets aren't changing.

Larry Altman’s 2nd-week-of-March observation is looking strong

Judge opened Monday's (3/24) Halftime Report saying Tom Lee is suggesting a "potential face-ripper rally."

Joe Terranova acknowledged there's "a lot of positive momentum."

Joe said we saw "probably the worst" during the week of March 10, which is the classic Larry Altman 2nd week of March bottom observation (it was March 13 that we hit 5,504).

Steve Weiss correctly suggested there was "broad agreement" among the show's panel on Friday that April 2 would be a "buy on the news" day; on Monday, "we're pulling that forward," Weiss explained.

Judge observed, "The president can flip the switch almost anytime he wants."

Bryn Talkington suggested the "basic mechanics" can lift the market and that hedge funds will at some point stop being so bearish.

Jim Lebenthal said this is "a very jittery market" and he's "not in Tom Lee's camp," but of course he's "fully invested." Jim said he wants to be in the "juggernauts" now because the market can drop on a headline.

Weiss says companies he’s involved with are ‘all laying off people’

On Monday's (3/24) Halftime Report, Judge said the Mag 7 has looked more like the "Mediocre 7" recently.

Regardless, Joe Terranova bought more AMZN. He calls it the "No. 1 Mag 7 for me," followed by META.

Steve Weiss is already back into NVDA after selling it on the earnings. "It's a trading market," Weiss insisted.

Bryn Talkington said she bought more NVDA "at 111."

Weiss actually claimed, "I know the companies on the private side that we're involved with, we're all laying off people."

Joe said of AMD, "This is one of the more powerful reversals in momentum that I have seen in the last year."

Joe bought IBKR. Joe sold CVS. Joe bought MCK. Weiss bought VRTX.

Weiss bought more NFLX and made the same bullish arguments about the company he's been making for a few years (see below) (we don't disagree, but it is the same arguments he always makes) (this writer is long NFLX).

Joe’s ‘relaxed’ from Florida, refuses to ‘argue’ with Weiss when it really wasn’t even an argument

So who peed in Joe's Cheerios?

Joe Terranova on Friday's (3/21) Halftime Report sparked controversy when he said the "consensus" view tariffs as a "transitory, uh, variable in which it's a negotiation."

Steve Weiss asked Joe if Joe is saying that even if tariffs are applied, "that they'll go away."

Joe said, "I just said that, yeah." (Actually, Joe said the "overwhelming consensus" believes that, not that Joe necessarily believes that.)

Weiss said he disagrees, citing tariffs on China from Trump 45 that Biden kept.

Joe protested, "I understand that. I'm back from Florida, I'm nice and relaxed, I'm not looking to argue. I'm telling you — just listen — I'm telling you the reason why I think people are still buying equities, because I think that the consensus thinks- the consensus has skepticism that these tariffs are nothing more than a negotiation, and temporary."

"This is not an argument, and I suggest you go back to Florida if you don't want to have any discussion," Weiss said, prompting Judge to chuckle. "But here's the story. The story is, you said tariffs won't be permanent. Tariffs have been permanent ... people aren't buying stocks; stocks are continuing to go down."

Joe didn't say tariffs won't be permanent. Joe said the "consensus" thinks tariffs won't be permanent.

But even though Weiss was sort of misstating Joe's point, Weiss was making a fair point that Joe should've addressed — maybe the "consensus" is wrong about how long tariffs will last.

Anyway. Joe said, "Steve we just did a Bank of America study that showed fund flows, people buying stocks. Like, listen to the show! Scott just read it!"

"Show me what the correlation is between the fund flows ... and the market," Weiss demanded.

"So then why are we reporting it?" Joe wondered.

Josh Brown said "I'm a little bit on Joe's side," suggesting the market views tariffs as a "temporary annoyance" like "currency fluctuations." Josh also mentioned Tesla's business in China.

Judge said "charts" suggest "some level of detente."

Weiss conceded "maybe the magnitude" of 200% or 25% tariffs won't stick but pointed to BAH as getting a bump from false hopes. Weiss said he'd still favor the Mag 7 but not AAPL or the whole group "blanketly" (sic).

Bryn Talkington said she thinks Trump "wants a deal," and Bryn thinks "China is 10 times more important than Canada."

Judge seemed to envision himself as the referee of Joe and Weiss' conversation. At the end of the program, Judge joked that Weiss is "Tommy Hearns" and that Joe is "Marvin Hagler." Judge said, "I call this bout a draw."

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso tried to make a point about flexibility that came out like mush. But Steve chided the CEOs who talk about "lack of clarity," because there's "never" clarity. Grasso also predicted "3½" on the 10-year.

Josh says to take Jeffrey’s recession odds with a ‘grain of salt’

Bryn Talkington on Friday's (3/21) Halftime Report predicted a "range-bound" market and said investors should expect a "volatile year."

Joe Terranova is "somewhat discouraged" by this week's price action; he thought we'd bottom last week.

Joe said we've got a "very challenging environment" for the next month and that earnings estimates will "have to come down."

Steve Weiss said, "I just don't think that there's any real reason to put money to work here; any sale I've made has been a great sale."

Judge asked Josh about Jeffrey Gundlach's recession odds (50-60%) from a day earlier. Josh said, "All the bond guys, uh, were saying '75% chance of a recession' in '23, 100% chance ... people can change their minds, and you have to take recession calls with a grain of salt."

Megan Cassella reported on possible wiggle room on whenever the next round of tariffs is supposed to start.

James Demmert on Power Lunch was asked by Sully about CLF; Demmert said it’s been a ‘disastrous stock’ and he’d ‘be a seller’ now

On Friday's (3/21) Halftime Report, Josh Brown said Tom Lee was talking about the uncertainties around Brexit, which had a surprising outcome, so it seems like what the outcome is isn't important, it's just that we have an outcome.

Steve Weiss said he agrees with the notion of selling the positive news and buying the "negative news events." Weiss said this is a "great trading market, by the way."

Weiss bought more BAC, stating deregulation will affect the biggest banks, which could be a "safe haven."

Judge didn't seem to have a good grasp of what stocks are still on Josh's best-stocks-in-the-market list. Josh said CME and ICE are still on the list, but NDAQ isn't. Josh suggested CME and ICE are a "safe haven." Joe Terranova said IBKR could be added to that group.

Judge reported on how Fazal Merchant apparently got the Alphabet bid for Wiz to go higher. Josh said CRWD is up about 7% this year and made the case for cyber stocks. (This writer is long CRWD.) Bryn said BUG, the cyber ETF, is up 4½% this year.

Josh pointed out that gold has been more exciting than bitcoin this year.

Jim says customers start howling if he talks about selling AAPL

Early into Thursday's (3/20) Halftime Report, CNBC gave a lot of coverage to a ... Bloomberg story.

Steve Kovach discussed Bloomberg's report about upheaval in the Apple AI/Siri team, though Steve mentioned several times that according to the story, the top guy, John Giannandrea, isn't actually getting fired.

Judge suggested that maybe John Gruber's "critical blog post" about something "rotten" at AAPL was the "final straw" for Giannandrea. Kovach said, "I guarantee you it had influence in there."

Jason Snipe said there are "opportunities elsewhere" besides buying AAPL.

Jim Lebenthal said he's "underweight" AAPL and went on to relay an anecdote. Jim said AAPL has a "retail shareholder base that is borderline fanatic." Jim said that "about 3 months ago," he talked on the show about possibly removing AAPL from his portfolio. "I got so many howls ... I got howls from clients, I got howls from advisers; some of them said, you will remove shares from my portfolio when you pry them from my dead hands."

Josh Brown said he said earlier in the year that this wasn't going to be a great time to own AAPL.

Barry predicted late in 2024 that stocks were nearing ‘Crazy Town’ and a ‘crash’

Judge, back on Thurday's (3/20) Halftime Report, said Tom Lee thinks there's a "Fed put" and "still thinks the markets are OK."

Josh Brown said Jay Powell seems "still pretty upbeat on the economy overall."

Jim Lebenthal said he thinks there's a "cap on any rallies" and that the bounce isn't that "convincing." Nevertheless, Jim said a recession "would happen only if there was a banking crisis."

Judge said Barry Bannister thinks the "relief rally" will continue. The curious thing about that is that way back on Oct. 16, with the S&P at 5,842, guest host Sully said Barry's call is that the market goes up another 8-10%, then will "crash 25% from there next year."

In November, Barry's name came up again on the show, as Judge said Barry even suggested the market was heading toward "Crazy Town" (snicker) and the upside was only to the low 6,000s and downside to 5,250.

As far as we could add/subtract/multiply/divide, we think 6,147 on Feb. 19 is the peak, which is up a little over 5% from Barry's October call. We're not down 25% from there, nor have we yet slid back to 5,250; it looks like the recent low was 5,504 on March 13, or just over a 10% drop from the February high.

So Barry's calls in late 2024, as of now, look a little extreme.

It’s basically CNBC’s strategy now to throw the whole team into the story whenever a sports franchise is for sale

On Thursday's (3/20) Halftime Report, Josh Brown bought CVX (basically because the technicals and chart look good to him), though he conceded "2 major overhangs" of Venezuela drilling and "the acquisition of Hess." For the latter, Brown related interesting details about XOM's resistance.

Jim Lebenthal owns XOM and says either XOM or CVX is fine but you have to be in the "creme de la creme" of energy, or any sector.

Jason Snipe said Cramer had a "phenomenal" interview with Jensen; Jason's takeaway was the $1 trillion in capex spending ahead.

Josh said ABBV is a "strong stock and getting stronger." Jason said it's got a "follow through off that patent cliff."

Judge's chat with CNBC's Mike Ozanian about the value of the Boston Celtics was kind of a bust. (Sports is the new CNBC SpinCo initiative.)

On Closing Bell, Judge had Jeffrey Gundlach, who said he thinks there's a 50-60% chance of a recession. (A year ago, in the summer, he said September 2024 could go in the history books as the start of the recession.)

‘In no-man’s land’

On Wednesday's (3/19) Halftime Report, not in Miami Beach but the NYSE and guest-hosted by Frank Holland, Steve Liesman previewed the Fed decision and said indicators viewed by the committee are "not near recession levels at this moment."

Steve drew a stark distinction between a "slowdown" and a "recession." Jim Lebenthal said he doesn't see the current climate being worse than a "slowdown."

Jim said he was surprised that the response to the NVDA event wasn't "bigger." But he said we've got an "overhang" of April 2.

Sarat Sethi said "we're kind of in no-man's land" where "good news is not being rewarded."

Steve Weiss, who was remote, said "what we heard from Jensen Huang is what we've heard from him in every meeting," which is basically true. Weiss said Wednesday's market move was not "tied to" Nvidia but simply that the market was "oversold." Weiss agreed with Sarat that "we're in no-man's land."

C at 80% of tangible book

In what might well be an interesting trade idea, Jim Lebenthal on Wednesday's (3/19) Halftime Report said PCG is "mainly" a Northern California utility that has been "beat up on the perception that they are somehow responsible for the terrible L.A. fires; they are not." (This writer has no position in PCG.)

Jim explained that ADBE's results keep coming in above expectations. But Jim said the stock's been an "absolute disaster" because of fears of "significant competition." But "it's clear to me at least that the competition isn't as bad as people expected."

Steve Weiss knocked Oppenheimer's downgrade of GS. Oppenheimer, according to guest host Frank Holland, thinks the M&A rebound may even be "canceled." Weiss said "that analyst either started this week or was on vacation the last month ... the time to gra- downgrade was obviously a while ago."

Frank noted that Goldman downgraded other big banks. Jim said he "very much" likes financials and mentioned C and how much it's trading at tangible book (about 80%, Jim said). Sarat Sethi said "this is the time to buy the Morgan Stanleys, JPs of the world."

Sarat sold APA and said he'd "rather" put the money in SLB. Sarat said news of energy execs' meeting with Donald Trump is bullish for the sector. Frank wondered if "drill baby drill" will depress oil prices and therefore the stocks, and if there's a "slowdown" (the word of the day), wouldn't that hit demand. Sarat said, "It takes a long time to increase capacity." Jim insisted there will be a "middle ground" between drilling and "capital discipline" at energy companies. Jim's top energy pick is XOM.

Sarat backed the VMC upgrade by JPMorgan.

On Fast Money, Guy Adami said Santoli, who was guest-hosting, only found out he was hosting Fast Money "during his last show." Guy touted GM, which Jim bailed on because of tariffs, and suggested the GM bottom put in a couple weeks ago will "stick for a while."

‘I’m willing to call it a bear market’

It was golf shirts galore as the Halftime Report gang — a few of them, anyway — took part Tuesday (3/18) in Josh Brown's Future Proof conference in what Josh said is considered "Wall Street South."

That would be Miami Beach.

Joe Terranova said the market's in a "continuation of this recalibration story (snicker)." Bill Baruch said he's not as negative as Joe and that we're in the "later innings" of whatever's wrong with the stock market.

Josh, though, said a lot of stocks are down steeply from highs this year, and, "I'm willing to call it a bear market." (Remember a few years ago, when a buncha people thought "Rolling bear market" was a clever term?)

Josh doesn't know why Cowen is cutting its Berkshire target.

Joe noted that XYZ's outlook wasn't great; it had a "dramatic reversal of momentum" and he expects it to be "sideways to lower at best."

Brian Belski said his shop is maintaining its 6,700 target and believes the bull market is "alive."

Joe: ‘It’s time to reduce exposure’ to the Mag 7

Monday's (3/17) Halftime Report was guest-hosted by Dom Chu, who said he was on his way to Future Proof in Miami within a few hours (SpinCo still has a travel budget, apparently), and the show's most notable comment came in the opening seconds, when Joe Terranova (already in Miami) stated, "The Mag 7 are not the ideal place to be overweight. In fact, it's time to reduce exposure there. The equal-weight is leading markets higher."

Jim Lebenthal, not in Miami and not at the NYSE, revealed, "I really like the bond market (Zzzzzzzzzzz) where it is right now." Jim said the market's reaction to lousy data Monday may be a sign "animal spirits" are back.

Bryn Talkington said her "playbook" is a short-term rally, but "there's a ceiling though on April 1st."

Bryn reported buying TSLA "in the 100s" when Elon was taking over Twitter. Bryn said "the stock technically is broken," so when it hit 250 a week ago, she sold 270 calls expiring April 17 and "got $13."

Dom said Lori Calvasina cut her target from 6,600 to 6,200.

Dom said MoffettNathanson has just determined that NFLX "has won the streaming wars." (This writer is long NFLX.) Joe suggested this victory took place "years ago." Joe said NFLX's future "circulates around live sports programming."

(What Joe could've said is that it also sounds like SpinCo's future "circulates" around sports material, given the announcements from Max Meyers/KC last week.)

Jim had some satellite connection issues while apparently backing XOM. "If you don't own it, I would add it here," Jim said.

Bryn backed FANG even though Barclays cut its target by $10.

Bryn talked up HOOD, and Jim talked up BRK-B.

Sharon Epperson joined the set late to discuss the prospects of private assets in 401(k) plans. Bryn said people shouldn't have 100% of their assets "predicated" on stocks moving up and bond yields moving lower, so it's a "great conversation" to have.

Dom Chu announced a "CNBC Pro Live" event at the NYSE on June 12. Mugshots shown on the screen included Dan Niles, Dan Ives, Carter Worth and Tom Lee.

Dom promised to be at Future Proof in Miami on Tuesday.

The Fast Money gang was out of ideas and spent the show bantering about U.S.-vs.-rest-of-the-world.

‘I hate Harris. I hate Biden. They were disasters,’ Weiss says, as Judge warns Weiss to be ‘careful’

Friday's (3/14) Halftime Report was dominated by a discussion, shortly into the program, essentially about whether one person (that would be Steve Weiss) was talking too much about presidential politics.

Frankly, we heard a lot of consstructive points all around.

It got started when Weiss asserted, again, that there's "absolute certainty" about this administration. He said he "took a lot of guff" for not saying that Trump 2.0 would be a market positive.

Judge said, correctly, "50 days in might be a little early to declare 'I knew that Trump 2.0 was gonna be negative.'"

Weiss said, "I'm declaring it now." He said the first administration was "chaotic" but Donald Trump had "people that would actually stand up to him," but "nobody" is doing that this time.

(Um, we tend to doubt that. That assertion needed more discussion. Where are all these examples of first-term standups. It's possible Weiss may be referring to advisers such as Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump and Steve Bannon, whom Trump is not going to toss out of the Oval Office. They've been replaced, on some level, by Elon Musk. Weiss is certainly not referring to Wilbur Ross or Rex Tillerson or Reince Priebus or Jeff Sessions in terms of talking the president out of ideas.)

"It is amateur hour," Weiss continued, suggesting the president is making "knee-jerk" reactions to tariffs "out of anger, out of his weak personality."

Rob Sechan then cut in, "I wanna caution our viewers to not let your political emotions get too-"

"It's not political," Weiss insisted. "Rob. Rob. I was a registered Republican until-"

"That's great. I can tell you you're not that now," Rob said.

"That's not true. I hate Harris. I hate Biden. They were disasters. But here we've got a proven disaster," Weiss said.

"I think it's a little early to judge these kind of outcomes," Rob said.

That's a fair point made by Judge as well. At some point, the administration is going to get tired of tariffs — or at least changing them. And while Weiss is claiming a "proven disaster," it's only 2 months into the administration, and stocks survived the 45th.

Anyway, Judge advised Weiss to be "careful on the road you- you- you're goin' down." (Translation: Judge doesn't want the show to turn "political.")

"I don't know why. It's been the right road," Weiss said.

Judge then delivered a statement. "As I've said before on the- on the other program that I have the, the, the great privilege of hosting, um, one thing that makes us, this, CNBC, the name up there, special, is we focus on the policy, not the politics. At least we try our best, OK. This market is gonna be driven by policy, not politics. I want the conversation to be driven in the same fashion."

That's fine. But when it's completely obvious that stock market volatility is being driven by tariffs, then shouldn't foreign trade decisions be discussed on the program? And if one social media posting says the tariffs will disappear if another country becomes the 51st state, isn't that as much about "policy" as "politics"?

(And earlier in the show, despite his protestations about policy over politics, Judge said one Wall Streeter he knows who backs Donald Trump is "more negative" on the economy and market because of the "chaotic" nature of the presidency; "they told me that to my face.")

Weiss said, "And I am talking about the policy. Here's the issue. The issue is, you can't disagree with Trump without somebody saying ... Oh you're a Democrat, you're a liberal."

We're not sure where Weiss gets that. Maybe on his X account. Numerous people who support Trump — including members of Congress — have indicated since this administration began that they don't agree with every policy.

"That is not focusing on the policy," Rob told Weiss. "That is focusing on the delivery of the message of what the strategy's gonna be. Yes it's a little- it's a little disjointed, a little incoherent right now, but you are definitely in that statement not focused on the policy."

"That's not true," Weiss said. "Let me ask you this question. ... When you go out and you fire, without regard to their importance to the agency that they're at, without regard-"

"That's again- that's again a style point," Rob said.

"It's not a style point. That's policy. You're saying, we're firing these people for you, we don't want your input ... we're gonna fire for you. That's policy, Rob."

"The policy is skinning down government," Rob said, adding "I happen to agree with you."

OK, this one is really parsing. Weiss and Rob agree the government could stand some slimming down. Rob says that Weiss' complaint about how it's being done is merely a style gripe. Weiss is implying that willy-nilly reductions may be bad for the departments and the country. This subject is inevitably headed to high-level court battles, at which point we'll have a better picture of reductions' impact on the country.

"I'm all in favor of skinning down government," Weiss said.

"OK. Well that's the policy," Rob said.

8 years ago it was a wall; now it’s tariffs

Steve Weiss on Friday's (3/14) Halftime Report warned that April 2 could be "another ugly day," though he said Friday's rally can go "a little while." Weiss said the Mag 7 is the "place to go."

Josh Brown said it's "premature" to say the pullback is over. Josh actually mentioned "Dow Theory," a term that probably hasn't been heard on the show in many months and has barely gotten mentioned in the past decade, and gave a clumsy, elongated explanation for how Dow Theory may occasionally predict recession, but "more times than not," it doesn't happen. (Um, it's hard to see a recession happening again when those $1,400 checks are sitting there ready to go out.)

Amy Raskin said "I don't think this is over," though we're "oversold" and due for a bounce; the consumer is weakening.

Josh announced that Future Proof is doing a Miami event next week.

Amy Raskin said DIS is "challenged" in the short term and said "1.3 million, um, Canadians visited Orlando in 2023."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said valuations are "attractive," though there could be "another scare for sure." Steve Grasso predicted "another test" for NVDA but said other megacap tech could rally. He said the next leg up for NVDA will be making "cheaper chips."

‘One of the great kitchen-sinks of all time’

Judge on Thursday's (3/13) Halftime Report said Ed Yardeni cut his S&P target from 7,000 to 6,400, but Chris Harvey is "sticking with" 7,007.

Josh Brown said Ed is keeping his earnings expectations but reducing the multiple.

Kevin Simpson suggested current earnings forecasts match a multiple of 20.5, so, "Everything seems kind of reasonable here." Kevin suggested that Delta's outlook is what got the market "a little bit spooked."

Judge pointed out how Mag 7 forward multiples have dropped in the past month. (Whether that has anything to do with the nation's foreign trade governance, who knows.)

Judge said Scott Bessent was asked early in the day if his "detox" comment was a "euphemism" for "recession," and Bessent's response was, "doesn't have to be." (That's really going out on a limb.)

Bryn Talkington noted, "We have huge deficit spending, which by the way still continues, so that hasn't even remotely stopped." As a result, "This is gonna be here for a while."

Kevin bought more TSLA, he said he's "just harvesting a vol play." He wants to write a 1-year LEAP. Judge pointed out how Kevin "couldn't care less" about Tesla sales fundamentals.

Kevin also bought more HOOD, saying there's a "serious fundamental story" with this stock. Kevin got stopped out of ADBE; a "horrible, horrible stock."

Bill Baruch sold the RSP and bought QQQ. Bill said tech is a "great buying opportunity." Jason Snipe bought more NFLX, saying "nothing" has changed about the story. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Judge grilled Kevin a little bit for buying JPM. He also bought more LRCX. Jason Snipe bought more LOW.

Judge said MoffettNathanson appears to hate RBLX, but Bryn said the research note seemed "balanced." Josh touted AZO and its technicals. Josh called LYV "extraordinarily oversold." He also said SBUX remains on the best-stocks-in-the-market list.

Josh said the administration thinks it will "pull off" what Javier Milei is doing.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said INTC's next quarter "could be one of the great kitchen-sinks of all time."

Judge claims ‘I’m supposed to make people squirm’

Judge claims in a CNBC "Live Ambitiously" (SpinCo branding) promo (which aired during Wednesday's 3/12 Halftime Report) that "They call me 'The Judge' for a reason. I'm supposed to make people squirm. Get away from talking your book and tell me the real story."

Seriously? Judge is constantly asking panelists to talk their book and explain stock decisions. When has Judge asked anyone to tell the "real story" about how this administration is doing?

They do call him "Judge" for a reason — his last name is Wapner.

Joe’s getting flak for not talking up JOET stocks on the air

Midway through Wednesday's (3/12) Halftime Report, Judge asked Joe Terranova about airlines.

Joe revealed, "I wanna be clear about something. Because I had someone yesterday after our airline conversation call me up and say, 'You know, you sounded pretty bearish about Delta when you were speaking with Steve and Jimmy, and you own these positions, you're on CNBC, why are you not defending the positions in a publicly traded fund? And the reason I'm not doing that is, I'm going to be transparent. There's a quarterly rebalance in which these stocks can go out. ... I think the positive momentum in the airlines has been lost."

Steve Weiss had a good punch line that prompted laughs: "The good news is, Jimmy'll be there to buy 'em from you."

NVDA finding takers

Judge opened Wednesday's (3/12) Halftime asking Joe Terranova about Scott Bessent's "detox" again.

Joe affirmed "we're going to see a significant reduction (snicker) in government spending" (at least until it's time for the $1,400 checks to go out with someone's name on them). Joe said the market is still "searching for leadership." Joe again said we could have a "tactical bounce" this week.

Rob Sechan's been trimming "value" and has added NVDA and AMZN.

Judge aired a clip of Brad Gerstner saying on Squawk that he bought some NVDA. Weiss said he bought more META. "You can't market-time, it's impossible," Weiss said.

Stephanie Link dialed in to say she sold CRWD and bought PANW. (This writer is long CRWD.)

Joe said UBER "seems range-bound between 60 and 80." He does think it's a "$100 stock."

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso returned to one of his recent themes, that tech giants are spending "way too much" on AI and have to re-size those numbers. Steve said AAPL is the only one currently with modest expectations. "I think Nvidia still goes much lower," Steve said. Guy Adami suggested that the stock market was this administration's "report card" 8 years ago, but now the report card appears to be bond yields.

Back on Halftime, Judge said Goldman has come up with a "stable" (snicker) stock list. Rob backed AZO. Joe backed a handful of others. Shannon suggested this is a good time to look at HD; Rob said it could be "pretty interesting." Rob said it's the "right move" to be cautious with AAPL.

Weiss: ‘The administration doesn’t know what they’re doing’

Joe Terranova, Judge and Jim Lebenthal must've considered Tuesday's (3/11) Halftime Report a great success, because none of them revealed their thoughts about the governance of U.S. trade policy in 2025.

Josh Brown did call the situation a "mess."

Judge did a "New at Noon" (apparently that's the Halftime slogan for a scoop) (it wasn't about the governance of U.S. trade policy); in this segment, Judge reported that Millennium Management lost "900 billion (sic) dollars" (the screen graphic said "million") on a strategy "tied to index rebalancing."

Judge moments later corrected his 900 "billion" to "million."

Steve Weiss said firms like Millennium employ 3-6-times the leverage of the "multistrats."

Meanwhile, as far as investors having/not having clarity, Weiss stated, "They've got absolute clarity. And the clarity that they have is that the administration doesn't know what they're doing."

Joe suggested the "real economy" is "cooling," and "the Trump administration arguably, probably applauds that because it gets the Federal Reserve to move rates lower." Not a bad point, but that one falls under the category of Careful What You Wish For.

Josh again touted MCD and OTIS, stocks he praised last week, and we're not sure why they were brought up again. Josh seemed miffed that Judge wanted to "move on."

Weiss said he's been selling DKS, he lost a "nice percentage" of the investment.

‘3 years is irrelevant’

Jim Lebenthal on Tuesday's (3/11) Halftime Report said DAL has been an "outperformer" over the last 3 years.

It's that "3 years" part that got Judge's attention.

Joe Terranova said, in regard to DAL, that he doesn't care about using the word "recession," but companies are feeling the "economic contraction." Judge said, "That's why I said yesterday, it's just a word, 'recession.'"

As Jim referred to 3-year returns again, Judge said "3 years is irrelevant. 3 years is irrelevant."

"I don't know why you say that, but I don't care," Jim responded. "The guidance is intact for this year."

Judge explained, "If I own the stock today, do I- do I give a darn that- what it's up over the last 3 years, if I- if I bought it recently."

Jim said he'd try to make it "clearer," that over 3 years, DAL rises, then "comes back down to meet the S&P 500 return." Steve Weiss argued 3 years isn't realistic because of all the post-pandemic pent-up demand that doesn't exist now.

Bryn: NVDA a ‘no-brainer’

Bryn Talkington on Tuesday's (3/11) Halftime Report said that like 2018, 2025 will be "a really good year to tactically buy names."

Bryn thinks the wakness will continue "for the foreseeable future."

Bryn said it's a "great opportunity" and "no-brainer" to buy NVDA; only sentiment is holding it back.

Bryn also bought APO and KKR and called those a "great opportunity" also. Josh Brown questioned whether those stocks would work if this is like 2018. Bryn said everyone she talks to says they don't have "enough exposure" in that area. Steve Weiss said the IPO market is still absent and said names like APO and KKR have to be evaluated individually.

Joe claims business media is reporting ‘everyone’s making money’

In the strongest call on a day of market cratering Monday (3/10), Joe Terranova asserted on the Halftime Report that we're set up for a "tactical bounce," and you want to be a "buyer" this week.

Joe said we're 8% off the Feb. 19 high.

Other panelists didn't sound bearish at all; Stephanie Link, as often happens, seemed to rattle off a whole universe of stocks that she's interested in.

As for international stocks outperforming the U.S., Jim Lebenthal said "there isn't much juice left in that orange."

Jim said, "The average stock is not telling us a recession's coming."

Sarat Sethi pointed out that interest rates are coming down, and the Fed's getting back in the picture. Sarat said that "there will be at some point" a Fed put.

With all this market noise going on (which only intensified later in the day), it'd be nice to hear CNBCers telling it like it is.

For example, Judge obviously has opinions about how the first 2 months of governance of this administration have gone.

He just isn't sharing.

Joe??? Joe will hardly even volunteer whether the '27 Yankees were a great team.

Which means Weiss — agree or disagree (he wasn't on the show Monday) — is the only panelist at least trying to tell it like it is.

Judge brought up Scott Bessent's "detox" (snicker) in his opening remarks. (Apparently that term's got a 48-hour shelf life in business media. Or maybe more. We'll find out this week.)

At one point, Joe prompted head-scratching when claiming, "There's so many people, whether it's on social media or the business media, that have this inference that it's a great environment and everyone's making money. This is a very difficult environment-"

"I don't hear anybody saying that ... I don't know where that's coming from," Judge said.

"I said on social media," Joe said.

Late in the show, Judge asked Joe, "You OK? Sound a little down." Joe seemed surprised and insisted "I'm good."

Jim said he "fired off an email" to his "trading team" to boost his MSFT stake. Joe predicted AMZN will make a push into "live sports programming."

Judge has a habit of constantly saying "you" to a panelist, then clarifying he means "you" as everyone in general.

On Fast Money, Guy Adami insisted there was nothing "panicky" about the selloff on Monday.

Kind of funny to hear Scott Bessent warn about a ‘detox period’ with a straight face

On Friday's (3/7) Halftime Report that got slightly preempted by both Jerome Powell and Donald Trump, Bryn Talkington described this market as "2018 2.0" and mentioned Scott Bessent saying there's not a "Trump put" but there's a "Trump call."

However, right now, Bryn would be selling calls, not buying calls.

Bill Baruch though suggested "we're closer to a bottom" than the early part of this pullback and suggested the bottom could be "next week into that Week 3 options expiration." This page will totally agree with that. (See the long-running Larry Altman observation.)

But Judge wondered how anyone could believe that with tariffs threatened in April. (Evidently, Judge thinks every tariff threat ends up happening.) Bill pointed to how the market rebounded last August. Judge scoffed, "This isn't a panic attack ... totally different environment." Bill said his comparison is that August led to a bounce.

Jenny Harrington thinks the market needs "more pain ahead."

Both Bryn and Judge noted Scott Bessent, somehow with a straight face, warned that there's going to be a "detox period" (snicker) as we wean away from (sending out checks of $1,400 or even $2,000 with the president's name on them to people who ... haven't lost their jobs or taken pay cuts) government spending.

Bryn said NVDA is actually trading at a lower multiple than AAPL.

Jenny complained about having to change around her presentation in Harrisburg on Thursday because the tariff situation keeps changing.

Bill said 75-80 is the "real great sweet spot" for buying PLTR. Bryn though suggested "there are a lot of investors that bought this stock north of 81," and "how many" will hold on. Bryn said the 200-day is at 51.

On the other hand, Bryn talked up banks and wondered what MS has to do with tariffs. Judge said it has to do with the "slowing economy."

Steve Grasso said that in October 2023, "Powell creates this rally," and perhaps something similar could be true in March 2025. "The key letters in 'tariffs' are the 'iffs,'" Steve added.

Enough already on
tariffs and U charts

Those who may be quickly growing weary of twice daily statements about tariffs dominating the afternoon/evening news may be heartened by what Josh Brown said at the top of Thursday's (3/6) Halftime Report.

Josh said, "I don't believe that we're gonna be doing this tariff stuff come summertime. I think this is like the opening, uh, act of the reality show that is going to be this presidency."

Then he said, "I think we'll get through it." (How about starting this weekend.)

But hold on. Bryn Talkington disagreed with Josh, stating, "I think this is just the beginning" and pointing to 2018.

Judge asked if Bryn is thus getting more defensive. Bryn said no but she will "sit still."

Bryn said there's "too many headwinds for small caps."

Joe Terranova said the 200-day sits at 5,731. Joe said we've been holding, but, "In my experience, you actually need to see the flush below to get the tradeable bottom." (Translation: Joe wants the Big. Whoosh. Down.)

Joe said, for about the 8th time in a week (almost as much as we're hearing about tariffs/re-tariffs/delayedtariffs), that momentum right now looks like a U rather than a V. Joe "would love to see a flush below the 200-day moving average" because that'll get "everyone out."

Fast Money announces another ‘live’ show with audience on June 5 (Guy at first gave the wrong date)

For those seeking stock-market bargains, Bryn Talkington on Thursday's (3/6) Halftime Report said if you're buying TSLA on hopes of a big boost from Juniper, that's a "dumb idea." Rather, "when there's blood in the streets" has been an "exceptional time to buy this company."

(Later on Fast Money, Guy Adami said TSLA is at as good an "entry level" as we've seen in a while.)

Josh Brown pointed out, "The median name in the SMH is right now in a 34% drawdown."

Josh said he owns CRWD from the "low hundreds" and isn't adding, but it's "still in a major uptrend." (This writer is long CRWD.)

Bryn said PLTR "got way ahead of itself." As Josh and Judge chuckled about Joe's book called Buy High, Sell Higher (Judge later said "it's still available" but in paperback only), Joe said he's been saying that PLTR and APP are sliding because he knows how the "algorithms are programmed." Then Joe made the U vs. V argument again. (Joe said he's got "boxes" of the book in his garage.)

Josh said RTX may be an industrial but "looks great" and isn't overbought. He also predicted a breakout to all-time highs for OTIS.

Bryn is long IBIT and said of crypto, "the buyers come in on drawdowns and buy the dip every time." Josh though said "I don't know," he keeps hearing "pro-crypto, pro-crypto," but the price action seems to already reflect that, and he's not sure how much more "mileage" there is from tweets.

Bryn said 36-37 looks like a "good entry point" for FCX. Joe said "momentum is broken" in FSLR and he doesn't like it at all.

Joe said if there's a COST selloff, it's an opportunity to buy.

On Fast Money, Dan Nathan said "Today felt very panicky," and we're probably "near a time" when the selloff is "overdone." Karen Finerman found herself agreeing with Dan but thinks there's still "room" for the supercharged names to fall further. Guy Adami predicted the VIX would stay "elevated."

In a treat for viewers, Michelle Meyer, The World's Cutest Economist who could play Mikey Madison in a movie (and vice versa), took a seat at the Fast Money table and said the consumer has been "very nimble" the last few years.

Kari suggests everything we’re hearing about tariffs may not be what happens with tariffs

Surely the most provocative comment of Wednesday's (3/5) Halftime Report came from Kari Firestone on the subject of tariffs.

"Investors should understand that what is said is different than what is going to be implemented," Kari stated.

Judge referred to a JPMorgan note about tariff wars lingering into mid-April and asked Steve Weiss if things will be "unsettled" for another month. "At least April, and I think longer than that," Weiss said, adding, "There's no strategy behind the noise."

Weiss went on to explain that people in government are getting résumés ready, and the government will "lose the top people." Weiss said he's "not putting cash to work," even though the market is "oversold" for now.

Kari and Weiss argued over whether AAPL is a "defensive" stock. "I don't think any stock with a 30 multiple with flat revenues and flat earnings can be defensive," Weiss said. Kari cited yield and "huge amount of cash."

Joe Terranova said the market's been hovering around the 200-day and is trying to determine leadership.

Joe said CRWD is still above the 200-day, and the stock gets the "benefit of the doubt" for the back half of the year. (This writer is long CRWD.)

Weiss questioned if DOGE won't decide not to "double-pay for cyber" and just use MSFT's "very good" cyber protection. Joe said that's a fair "theoretical look," but it's not how he analyzes stocks.

Joe said he doesn't think PLTR has had a "strong enough bounce."

Joe said AAPL's suggestions of reshoring are one reason it's recently done better than other tech. Weiss pointed out that reshoring actually became a priority because of COVID.

Joe said Megacap Tech is in a "better position" with this administration than the last one. Joe suggested, "I think at some point, we're gonna come in, and we're gonna say, 'There we go, Mag 7, once again lead- leading the market higher."

On Wednesday's Fast Money, Guy Adami said the S&P 500 was around 5,700 on Election Day, so keep that in mind as a "benchmark" for this administration.

On Monday, Weiss described the crypto space in more colorful terms

On Wednesday's (3/5) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss said he got rid of the last of his bitcoin exposure, explaining that basically the momentum's gone.

Joe Terranova said APP looks like a U and not a V.

Joe said "I wouldn't touch Target right now," but he touted TJX.

Joe bought AMGN; Kari Firestone said it's a "good time" to buy that stock.

Weiss called UNH "very cheap" and a "safe port."

Weiss called NFLX, which is on a Wolfe list of stocks that supposedly offer a "safe port" during Tariff Wars, a "phenomenal story" even though it's down from recent highs. (This writer is long NFLX.) Joe questioned whether GRMN belongs on that kind of a list.

During Final Trades, Judge asked Kari to make another rest-of-the-day market prediction like she did Tuesday.

Karen says trading in bank stocks got ‘panicky’ (as Dave Zervos says tariffs are ‘minutiae’)

On Tuesday's (3/4) Halftime Report, there was no talk of the presidential speech to a joint session of Congress, or movie awards, or pro football (#notawholelotofsubjectsleft #Mag7stockperformance,maybe), but Judge seemed to be eliciting a lot of shrugs about Tariff Wars.

Josh Brown pointed out that, as far as tariffs, "This is exactly what they promised us would take place. They said, On Day 1! ... So I don't really understand, like, 'Oh, wait, they're really doing this???' They did this in 2018."

Judge said that's "right" but that people on Election Day probably weren't anticipating this kind of stock performance through the first week of March.

Brian Belski sees this as a "longer-term buying opportunity for Canada, but I think it's not time to leave the U.S. if you're a Canadian client." (Which sounds like basically, you can buy anything.)

Kari Firestone pointed out that NVDA was up and said she thought, as Justin Trudeau was speaking, "The market could end up positive at the end of the day." (Actually, it flirted with that, but nosedived in the final hour.) (This review was posted overnight Tuesday-Wednesday.)

Josh bought KNSL, saying it's been a good performer, "but it's early in the company's story."

Stephanie Link came through with at least one big-return report, saying she's "up 30% in the past year" and "up 65% in the past 2 years with AmEx."

Josh said health care seems to be filling up his best-stocks-in-the-market list, and he specifically touted GILD.

Belski said the selloff in airlines was a "pure overreaction."

Judge said CZR is having "11 straight down days."

On Fast Money, Grandpa Guy Adami said the "growth scare" is confirmed. But David Zervos came on and told Melissa Lee, who wore a chic charcoal heather/black sweater, "I just think we're missing the bigger picture ... the deregulation story, and the smaller federal government story and the movement of resources out of an inefficient federal government into a more efficient private sector. ... I think we're getting bogged down in a, in a tariff discussion that's just- just, uh, you know, minutiae in the grand scheme of things, to be honest with you."

That's really a provocative point. 18 months from now, will anyone remember Tariff Wars of the first week of March 2025?

Guy warned, "The market hasn't seen what I think we're on- about to be embark upon (sic grammar) in quite some time ... gonna have to get used to it very quickly."

Karen Finerman said the VIX was "not quite panicky yet," though bank trading was "panicky." Guy said, "For me, for the first time in a while, Nvidia actually looks nice for a trade."

Weiss is back

While we're not taking sides in last week's dispute (other than to say Judge was right), we were glad to see Steve Weiss back at his Post 9 perch on Monday's (3/3) Halftime Report. (Basically, it appears, just as this page speculated, that after the previous Monday's clash, Weiss was advised to take the rest of the week off and come back Monday.)

Weiss on Monday told Judge he's been selling IBIT, asserting bitcoin is "purely a risk asset" and it's "ludicrous" to call it a "reserve currency."

Weiss even said of the bitcoin space, "To me, this is pure corruption," citing Donald Trump's "crypto business," adding, "Call it for what it is."

Judge chuckled, "You can call it for what it is ... Steve Weiss' opinion is representative of Stephen Weiss only and not in any way an indication of what CNBC's Scott Wapner, Jason Snipe, Shannon Saccocia or Joe Terranova think about" (rest unclear).

Joe Terranova said he heard the bitcoin news over the weekend, and, "Everyone said to me, 'This is a reason to buy bitcoin.' I mean, are you kidding me?"

We’re paying close attention to Larry Altman’s observation about the market often bottoming in early March

Judge opened Monday's (3/3) Halftime Report saying that Krinsky is saying "we're not done yet" and that we'll test the S&P 500 200-day.

Joe Terranova asserted, "We have a very unsettled market."

Joe even said "unsettled is the perfect word" and noted "the Mag 7 are underperforming."

Shannon Saccocia suggested there's an acknowledgment that megacap tech stocks aren't the "bastions of safety" that they used to be.

Steve Weiss said he's "not bearish" on the market but is "still negative."

Judge told Weiss that NVDA "can't get any footing from earnings." Weiss said he's completely out and sold when it went red after earnings.

Jason Snipe agreed with Weiss that there's "3rd-party selling" of NVDA chips to China.

Judge said Adam Parker has gone "slightly underweight tech."

Joe said NVDA's current growth isn't going to bring the "exorbitant premium" that it got in '23-'24.

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso, whose recent 90-before-150 call on NVDA is quickly looking better and better, said the DeepSeek news has triggered the potential for buyer's remorse for the big spenders on NVDA chips.

Weiss: Tariffs will drive prices up

On Monday's (3/3) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss took up the subject of tariffs.

Weiss said GM has 6% margins, retailers are around 10-15% and grocery stores are "low single digits." Weiss wondered, "How can they absorb the price increases. They can't ... so prices will go up. It's an inescapable, logical conclusion."

Jason Snipe pointed out WMT is "guiding lower" and contended, "Tariffs are inflationary."

Meanwhile, Jason agrees with Evercore's bullish UBER call.

Joe Terranova questioned whether UBER could hold up in a weak economic environment. Weiss said there's "some cushion" from having affluent customers but said the "marginal buyer" might "think twice."

Joe said CHKP has a "reasonable valuation" and is "squarely in the cybersecurity theme."

Weiss made some interesting remarks on the private credit scene; he said he wouldn't invest in the ETFs as a retail investor, he'd have to get a higher yield.

Weiss trimmed PDD, saying it was because of stops, while Judge and Weiss chuckled over Weiss' remark that "not a lot of thought went into it."

The CNBCfix 2025
Movie Awards Guide

As this page knows that CNBC viewers care just as much about culture as they do about Tony Pasquariello's view on the consumer, we've once again felt obligated to come up with an awards-season movie guide, partly because, to be completely frank, Judge hasn't had the brass to do it on television. (Note: There are no spoilers here, but there are some details about the films in question.)

This review is posted Sunday 3/2 before the Oscars ceremony, but no predictions here. So here's to Siskel & Ebert ...

Anora — The awards votes come down to whether viewers take it as seriously as it probably wants to be taken. Amid some great filmmaking, the major lapse is the writer/director's decision to elevate the thugs over Mikey Madison.

A Complete Unknown — There are parallels to "The Social Network," talented dropout who hit the road in the early days of a new cultural trend. Entertaining, watchable more than once, more of a re-creation than movie.

Fly Me to the Moon — Extremely mediocre twist on redemption/bluffing that's almost worth seeing for the attempt to weave in a movie to a well-known historical event. Is it a warning about conspiracy theories, a satire of them, an endorsement of them ...

A Real Pain — Beginning and ending aren't strong. The middle is pretty good, even if it includes a jump-the-shark moment around a statue.

Saturday Night — Draws strong conclusions about the survival-of-the-fittest nature of television and the still-relevant concerns over what can and can't be said on public airwaves. Many great lines even better than those heard on the actual show, and a movie that could've lasted another hour easily.

Challengers — Too many scenes in hotel rooms; too many smashed racquets.

Conclave — For about 3/4 of it, it's a surprisingly strong hook, then becomes a checklist of priorities for those with a wish list.

The Last Showgirl — It's being compared to "The Wrestler" though the entertainment forms in each are on wildly opposite arcs. The payoff of "Showgirl" isn't earned and the big drama is relayed through conversations, but an effective contrast of fantasy vs. reality.

Kinds of Kindness — Promising, absorbing, gory, but too much to process over nearly 3 hours to determine how good it really is.

Small Things Like These — It's an important subject. It's not a movie.

The Substance — She could far more easily address her numerous concerns by simply calling a lawyer.

Daddio — Not nearly enough here for a feature film, and some dubious inclusions to produce an R rating, but the acting is outstanding, and it wouldn't be out of the question for the title to become the term to describe having inexplicable, lengthy personal conversations with strangers; "I got 'Daddio'ed' the other day."

The Brutalist — It has so little to do with architecture that it hardly wants to show us this great library, and at times may be uncomfortably stark. As a metaphor for many things including displacement, it's rightly among top contenders.

Bonhoeffer — A hero of an era often chronicled in film, he is not a person with a singular moment, and probably too much material is addressed here.

Here — Interesting only as a concept gamble that flops. Tells us very few exciting things happen in living rooms.

Babygirl — Her lack of satisfaction may on some level be a really huge deal, but it's not a feature film.

I'm Still Here — For the first hour, it's a gripping international thriller. Then it's ... not so strong.

The Return — It's Binoche and Fiennes, so how can it go wrong. It's actually fairly good, but evidently there isn't much appetite for a retelling of "The Odyssey."

September 5 — The title is a curiosity. It's the fastest 94 minutes at a theater in a long time and could've gone much longer, but whether this is a "fair" or "right" way to portray this event has been a subject of debate.

The Fall Guy — Be glad if you happen to see this on streaming/cable without the insufferable intro supplied by the director/star at movie theater showings.

Emilia Pérez — Why it's a musical, who knows. The overall adventure/thriller angle isn't bad.

Juror #2 — As a "Law & Order" procedural, it works for a while; as an issue of conscience, it's a bust.

One Life — Could be an awards contender except that it's too layered, a theatrical movie in 2024 about a TV show in 1998 about heroism 4 decades prior to that.

Maria — Angelina expands her range in a movie that probably no one was really clamoring for.

The Seed of the Sacred Fig — At first a strong international thriller, then ... critics correctly want to compare it to a famous Stephen King movie.

Drive-Away Dolls — Margaret Qualley in a rather explicit road trip that isn't funny enough.

Problemista — The fact Tilda Swinton somehow was able to play this one straight suggests she is the most deserving candidate for a best actress Oscar.

The Bikeriders — Austin Butler's momentum stalls as we're told the biker gang used to be a noble group until outsiders started muscling their way in.

Civil War — Maybe people can write their congressman.

Blink Twice — Very creative horror effort, struggles with tone, are we supposed to be entertained or alarmed or both.

Wicked — Didn't get a review here, partly because the preview(s), which aired for months and months, made no sense. It is what it is.

The Idea of You — The most underrated film of the year.

Megalopolis — Some would say it's so bad, Francis is actually defending it in court. Not as bad as some say; if it weren't for the reported price tag, no one would care.

Happy trading ... and Happy moviegoing!

Halftime Report gives way to extraordinary Oval Office video

About halfway through Friday's (2/28) Halftime Report, Eamon Javers delivered breaking news about the day's goings-on in the Oval Office.

Among many other things (too voluminous for a page recapping stock-market picks), Eamon called the exchange a "diplomatic meltdown." Judge noted, "S&P dropped about 20 points or so, uh, as all of that was unfolding."

Jim Lebenthal opined late in the program, "I'm disturbed by what I just saw." Jim explained, "If the policies (sic plural) in foreign affairs is now to empower Russia and Vladimir Putin, I don't think that's good for the stock market; I don't think that's good for the global economy."

Certainly, Friday's Oval Office exchange could be some kind of tipping point in global alliances and perhaps the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war. We have seen so many so-called incredibly unprecedented incidents related to diplomacy and protocol take place in recent months and years that we'll wait to reserve judgment as to what Friday's event means.

Weiss absent Friday

Before things got very interesting halfway through, Friday's (2/28) Halftime Report was only notable for who wasn't there. That would be Weiss. This page speculated a day ago (see below) that it was probably mutually agreed on Monday that Weiss take the rest of this week off. But that's just speculation. Everyone will know more on Monday.

Jim Lebenthal said of NVDA, "I can't really explain why it was down 8%." Jim said that if people think it's because of gross margin projections, Jim finds that "absolutely trivial."

Jim though offered a "qualification" that "the market is heavy."

But Jim said "I wouldn't touch Tesla with a 10-foot pole," explaining it's "not just the valuation, it's the chart."

Kevin Simpson sold MSFT 420 covered calls expiring 3/21. Kevin also stated, "We're printing money writing calls against Robinhood."

It was the 13th minute when Stephanie Link finally mentioned a percentage gain, after Judge brought up GE Vernova; "I'm up 160% since it spun out, um, last year."

Stephanie was also "up 95% from the August lows" in CRWD (she mentioned that number twice). (This writer is long CRWD.)

Kevin also offered some numbers. He said he got stopped out of MSTR; "our cost basis on it's like a hundred and fifty; getting out at 240's fine." He said he'd buy it again if bitcoin falls to $70,000.

Kevin bought more CRM, which is one of those stocks that people always seem to like but are never hugely excited about.

Kevin sold a TJX 125 call expiring March 14. Kevin said at the end of the show that he trimmed UNH. Stephanie Link said UNH is down 25% since November, so the headwinds are priced in.

Guy owns the room, makes
‘live’ episode of Fast Money
a smashing success

Fast Money's much-ballyhooed "live show" (they probably should pick a different term, because all shows are live; this one just included studio guests) on Thursday (2/27) was a great success thanks to the one originally known as "The Negotiator."

Guy Adami negotiated hopefully a bonus from KC (who was on hand) for his rock-star performance while interacting with guests who had come a long way for the chance to join the Fast Money gang at the Nasdaq Marketsite.

On this subject, we could not agree more with the comments from Guy and other Fast Money panelists: That this is the best audience in the world, people who absolutely get it, who can talk about Jerome Powell or Marko Kolanovic at the drop of a hat. These are folks who may not agree with everything they hear on CNBC but they watch it, that's what matters. (This page merely tries to pass along some of what it hears on this channel, inform a bit; we're here because you are.)

Anyway, Guy so easily mastered the disjointed, overflow-room-like seating situation (they need to fix that for the next time) that it seemed like he's been hosting talk shows for decades. The perfect bridge between guests and panelists, Guy entered the gallery to handshakes similar to that John-Mack-returns-to-Morgan-Stanley clip that CNBC used to show all the time, kept the pace like a pro, ad-libbed better than Bob Hope and, maybe most importantly, completely gave the guests ample time to ask some fairly lengthy questions while keeping them on point.

Guy also gave shout-outs to Mary Duffy and KC Sullivan (who were on hand) and Jamie Dimon (who wasn't on hand).

Guests appeared to be having an awesome time, most mentioned Fast Money and/or CNBC as favorite show/channel.

(OK ... something that has to be noted is that surely the SpinCo ad reps had to be cringing at the amount of gray hair in this crowd. Whether 18-35s tried to get tickets to this event or just took a pass, we don't know.)

A few guests were hard to hear and some of the questions were less informative than others, also, no one asked to see Guy's UPS footage, unfortunately.

The questions were shown on the screen before guests actually asked them, so it's clear panelists had a bit of a heads-up. However, a few of the questions shown on the screen didn't match what was asked. The questions:

Dave from Florida: JPM or GS? (Guy says GS; Karen Finerman says JPM, citing "little more recurring" business model)

Shiraz from Ontario: Has "big chunk" of portfolio in META, what should he do with it? (Guy says "You went to the Peter Jennings class of question-asking, you know, the questions longer than the answer"; Steve Grasso's advice wasn't strong, said you have to ask, "How much am I looking to make off of this trade?," sell some to get back to original percentage and let the rest ride)

Ken from Tennessee: What's the future for quantum computing companies? (Guy deferred to Dan Nathan, who said it's "too far away" to make investment decisions)

Marian from New York: Tells Guy "You are my Taylor Swift," asked what to do with "dry powder" while screen graphic said question was about leveraged ETFs ... (Guy tossed question to Karen Finerman, "the dry powder queen"; Karen chuckled "I don't know what to make of that," said she's "always long" and really believes in dollar-cost averaging)

Al from Michigan: Asked for Guy's take on ARCC, Ares Capital, while screen said "what do you think about investing in Amazon." (Guy said "You might as well ask me what the winning lottery numbers are tonight"; Tim Seymour looked it up on his screen and claimed to "know" the stock, then gave a generic answer about not owning a stock just for a dividend)

Sheila from Massachusetts: What to do with Pfizer? (Guy gave it to Tim Seymour, who gave some recent background and kind of waffled on PFE's prospects but concluded he'd "stay long")

David from New York: For flight to safety, TLT or gold? (Guy tossed to Steve Grasso, who tossed to Karen Finerman, who said "I'm actually short the TLT")

Tom from Alaska: What do traders recommend to protect portfolio downside? (Guy mentioned Options Action and handed to Dan Nathan, who mentioned index ETFs and using put spreads)

Brian from Minnesota: Said "dream job" has been to be on Fast Money; what would Guy's dream job be? (Guy said either Melissa Lee's "protege" or "helper," or tight end for the New York Giants)

Raghu from Florida: Would you rather, HAL or SLB? (Guy said HAL; Tim Seymour would "absolutely" say SLB)

Mel hinted during the show that there will be another "live" event soon, with an announcement next week.

Tim Seymour closed the show with a "shout-out to the most passionate, loyal and smartest fans on any TV show, let alone financial TV. Thank you, Fast Money fans."

Steve Grasso suggests
90 for NVDA

The Stock of the Day on Thursday (2/27) was NVDA, which was naturally taken up on the Halftime Report and Fast Money.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said she doesn't think the NVDA story "unwound" on Thursday. But Steve Grasso said, "I think this thing dips below a hundred dollars. And I think it's a commoditized business." Steve later said he'd predict 90 before 150.

Has NVDA train ‘left the station’?

On Thursday's (2/27) Halftime Report, Josh Brown said of NVDA, "It's a beat; it's just not like the craziest beat ever."

Josh said that for those who don't NVDA, "Today is a great day."

Malcolm Ethridge, who often has been a guest of Judge's on Closing Bell but apparently is moving to the Halftime rotation, suggested, "I think realistically, all of the sellers -- the real sellers -- are out of that stock already."

(Presumably, that rotation still includes Steve Weiss, who's still on the Investment Committee page at CNBC.com and whose profile is stil at CNBC.com. He typically has been on the show Wednesdays, but wasn't on Wednesday of this week, so we're guessing there's some kind of mutual agreement about Weiss taking the rest of the week off. He typically is on Fridays too.)

Judge wondered "at what point" does someone who's not in NVDA, like Malcolm, start buying. "I think the train has left the station," Malcolm said.

As for the NVDA earnings report, "It was a great call," said Bryn Talkington, explaining that within a year, NVDA will be the "cheapest of the Mag 7." Bryn said the stock remains "firmly" in the range of 115-150, but this is a "great opportunity" for people who aren't in it to get in.

Judge said "the Street has a different bar, after DeepSeek." Rob Sechan said the "2nd derivative," or change to the change, isn't exciting investors as much as it had been.

Bryn buys HOOD

Josh Brown on Thursday's (2/27) Halftime Report sought to explain how ... apparently everyone can buy the lows and sell the highs.

Regarding the steep recent plunge in certain Nasdaq stocks, Josh said "Some of this is an education issue," explaining that people on Twitter claiming to be a "swing trader" actually "don't even know how to use RSI. ... You're not buying stocks at a 77 RSI."

Josh added, "A lot of what you're seeing in the markets is just due to this, um, misunderstanding about how to behave in stocks that have gone up 100%, 200%.

OK. Well, we thought the point of the show was for experts to tell people what to buy and what to sell and when. But if it's all just about reading an RSI chart, then ...

Rob Sechan, who's always qualifying things, said that you can be "selective" in stocks, though he's "not incredibly enthusiastic about the markets in general."

Bryn Talkington said "a lot of the froth" is out of PLTR but she thinks it could remain in the "somewhat short-term doghouse," because "there's just no support" until it gets "at least $20 lower than this."

Bryn bought HOOD at 45, she said it "bounced right off the 50-day" and isn't trading at a "parabolic level" but is "cleaning the clocks" of other "custodians." She said PLTR doesn't "remotely compare" to HOOD.

Malcolm Ethridge said "a lot of those momentum trades are widely held by retail," and he made the "escalator up, elevator down" reference that we've been hearing constantly on CNBC for a week. (Though we haven't heard the old favorite, the "tap on the shoulder" from the risk manager.)

Rob said he's "very happy" to own CRM and is also a customer. "The story's getting traction," Rob said.

Josh noted Berkshire's profitability and wondered, "Why aren't we talking about this stock; all it does is go up."

"We talk about it a lot," Judge said, basically incorrectly, before noting Josh isn't on "every day."

Bryn said she bought more UBER. That prompted Josh to bring up Jensen talking about Nvidia's "automotive" potential. (Oh, lessee, Nvidia's gonna get into driverless cars ...)

Rob sold MCD, but Josh said he thinks it's "goin' higher."

Steve Grasso: NVDA ‘looks like it’s rolling over’

On Wednesday's (2/26) Fast Money, Tim Seymour said NVDA "continues to extend its lead" over AMD and "that's really the story," and NVDA is "not expensive."

Steve Grasso, though, said he'd "take the other side," because the stock "looks like it's, it's rolling over," and 46% of NVDA revenues are from the "4 top hyperscalers."

The Fast Money gang was getting ready for its "live show" with fans and a cocktail hour on Thursday (2/27).

Liz bids farewell to Halftime, at least ‘for a while’

Judge stocked a 4-person panel even though half of Wednesday's (2/26) Halftime Report was preempted by presidential remarks at the Cabinet meeting.

Luckily, Weiss wasn't there for an encore, and no one said, "Hey Scott, what did you think of Weiss more intelligently answering a question than ..."

Joe Terranova cautioned that the "modest bounce" in momentum on Wednesday doesn't "confirm" the return to leadership.

Joe indicated that the JOET owns APP at "somewhere around 75 or 76 dollars since last summer," which doesn't do the holders of the stock any good in terms of directional advice. Joe claimed that he was saying last week that APP was the "1 name" that he was "ultimately concerned about."

Jason Snipe said there's "a lot riding on" the NVDA print. Jason said that despite the DeepSeek news, "Capex spend has not changed whatsoever." (This review was posted overnight Wed-Thurs.)

Judge said that Goldman is saying options were pricing in a more than 10% move in NVDA in either direction. Jim Lebenthal said he'd take that 10% to the "upside." Joe said it feels to him like "Nvidia is running in place." Judge said "it has been" and has been "dead money for a while."

As for broader market, Liz Young Thomas shrugged that we'll get some kind of "relief rally."

Jason said LOW has a growing "pro segment." Joe said TJX gave "conservative guidance" that he thinks they'll beat. Joe said it's a stock that has "really replaced Target" in consumer discretionary.

Joe said LLY has had 7 straight up days. Liz said she's standing by her call of health care as one of her sectors for 2025. Jim said it's not "unreasonable" to hang a 10 multiple on DAL.

Joe said CPNG is "gonna approach an all-time high." Jason said he continues to like NOW.

Late in the show, Joe noted that the market averages seemed to have "less life" than when the show began during the hour.

Near the end of the program, Judge announced, "This is Liz Young Thomas' last Halftime for a while. We wish you well. We'll be thinking a lot about you. You keep us in the loop." Liz said "Thank you" and offered IGV as her Final (apparently REALLY Final) Trade.

Jim takes the typical valuation-matters victory lap after PLTR gets slammed

Whew.

Viewers of Tuesday's (2/25) Halftime Report surely breathed a sigh of relief when they didn't see Weiss back for an encore heard Josh Brown point out what a rocky stretch momentum is having.

Josh suggested this could be a "good year for stocks" without maybe an awesome year for momentum.

Shannon Saccocia actually mentioned the Treasury Department "liquidity" that Jim Lebenthal always talks about.

Judge said data indicates "it's retail running for the door," which was sort of Joe Terranova's point a day ago that Steve Weiss disagreed with, opening the floodgates. (Sorta.) Judge on Tuesday said JPMorgan found in Monday morning's first 2 hours of trading "something they hadn't seen" since March 2020.

Jim said it's a "broad brush stroke" to lump in all retail investors with the selloff, rather, folks who fled APP and the "most momentum-oriented names" were sellers who "couldn't give a whit about what valuation is."

But Judge noted that "small caps are in correction." Jim said, "Your point is excellently made." (Whew, nobody said they were going to answer the questions more intelligently than Judge asked them (see below).)

Jim admits he has wondered if he’s ‘just being a useful idiot’ for CLF

After the A Block on Tuesday's (2/25) Halftime Report, Judge and Jim Lebenthal chuckled heartily over how bad the last year has been for CLF.

Jim asserted that the stock was down Tuesday because of the "miss on 4th-quarter earnings," but the "story" is not about Q4 earnings, but "steel pricing."

Judge bluntly stated, "I don't even really like talking about this stock anymore. ... It feels like it does nothing but go down, and, for lack of a better description, you continue to talk about it as if our viewers should buy it and, and believe in it when I'm not so sure about that counsel (snicker)."

Jim said Judge is being "gentle" and Jim could "take more than that." Jim admitted that previous calls JCPenney and Paramount "did not work out."

Judge noted that Jim knows Lourenco Goncalves, which would make it "more difficult" for Jim to ever sell. Jim said he'd sell it if he ever found it "appropriate" to sell.

Then Jim said it's occurred to him, regarding "conversations" with Lourenco, "am I just being a useful idiot? I don't think I am." Jim then went on to mention, as a steel-price catalyst, "the average age of cars on the road (snicker)" #backtothatagain #samenumberfor15yearsormore #ifthatnumbermattered,youshouldbuyAutoZone,notCleveland-Cliffs.

Jim concluded, "I deserve the heat."

Jenny says estimate of DOGE layoffs is ‘not that bad’

After the Chuck Grassley-UNH news on Tuesday's (2/25) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal complained that he'd think the U.S. Senate "would have much more to do ... than go after the company that is financing health care procedures for a lot of this country."

"You're just figuring out how D.C. works?" Judge wondered. Jim said "good point" (whew) but insisted that Senator Grassley is "trying to get a press release out there."

Jenny Harrington cited a study saying the number of federal layoffs is expected to be 300,000 "out of a hundred and 60 million employed people in the U.S. So the number's not that bad."

"Tell that to the people who are gonna lose their jobs," Judge said, adding that the biggest private layoff ever was 60,000 workers at IBM "many, many years ago."

Jenny mentioned some energy trades and made some reference to K-1s (ugh).

Bill Baruch bought PLTR, "starting a new position here" with a "1%" position. Bill also bought more AVGO and CRWD. (This writer is long CRWD.) (Because Bill utterly nailed the TSLA bottom last year, we'll keep close tabs on PLTR.)

Josh Brown said everyone seems to agree that NVDA's "commentary" is going to be more important than the numbers.

Josh said SBUX "has an incredible setup" and "looks coiled" and "could be off to the races." Brown also touted MCD and said the Gates Foundation "initiated a brand-new position."

‘Everybody up here is tired of that B.S.’ — Judge nearly throws Weiss off the Halftime set

Hoo boy ...

Steve Weiss' recent commentary on the Halftime Report, to be frank, has been wearing a little thin — so thin that Judge practically threw Weiss off the set mid-program on Monday (2/24).

Weiss had already tangled with Joe Terranova (see below) when Judge and Weiss argued about Tony Pasquariello's note about the Mag 7 vs. 493.

Weiss insisted he's got "decent exposure" (he always does, even when he's warning about the stock market, which is most of the time) and "I'd rather see panic selling" because he knows the market "overshoots." (Translation: He wants the Big. Whoosh. Down. like on Aug. 5 so it'll be super easy to buy great stocks.)

"This is a time to be cautious," Weiss told Judge.

Judge, referring to Weiss' last-week trade inspired by Dave Tepper, fired back with perhaps his best question in years: "Is dramatically upping your exposure to Chinese tech ... is that cautious? Is that cautious? ... Is that cautious?"

Obviously caught off guard, Weiss protested, "I'm not gonna answer the question that way, because that's an unfair question."

"Why? You talked about him in his hot tub last week, right, you can't answer the question?" Judge continued.

Then Weiss really raised the temperature with an "i" word: "I'm gonna answer it more intelligently than you asked it. So here's my answer."

But before he could unleash that answer (something about a "small position"), Judge cut him off: "OK, Steve, OK. You know what dude ... you can't help yourself by acting that way when somebody questions you on anything, OK."

Weiss said something about Judge giving him a "leading question ... that you want to fill your narrative."

Judge had had enough. "Everybody up here is tired of that B.S., OK. If you can't have a civil conversation ... without insulting people, then just be quiet," Judge ordered Weiss.

"It wasn't insulting"- Weiss protested.

"And just move to the other chair. Just move to the other chair. When you talk about people's intelligence up here the way that you debate people, we're not gonna do that."

"I'm talkin' about your question, not your intelligence," Weiss insisted.

"You SAID you were gonna ask- you were gonna have an answer more intelligent than the question I asked you. Right? OK," Judge stated.

"To get to the answer-" Weiss tried to say.

"Just slide down 1 chair. Or outside. Go there. Or over there," Judge said.

"You want the answer?" Weiss persisted.

Judge then carried on asking Joe about Berkshire's cash hoard. Joe tried to claim everyone was saying the same thing about being selective and that Judge was even "citing that as well." Judge cut in, "I'm not saying it's time to do anything. You guys know I don't manage money. I ask you the questions." Joe continued that '23 and '24 were "kinda easy."

(Sigh) With all due respect to Weiss, Judge won this one in a rout. Weiss' brand of Frasier Crane-like humor IS often among the show's best punch lines; Monday, Judge tripped him up with a superb question, and Weiss deserved the flak he got for the response he came up with.

We were curious if this fracas was documented in "business media" (snicker). We didn't find any articles on it, but we did get a couple X hits in which folks said (these are the 2 hits we got; we're not cherry-picking) "finally put Investor Steve Weiss in his place for often being insulting" and "FINALLY Scott Wapner THROWS Steve Weiss off the Halftime Report."

Joe tells Weiss, ‘With all due respect in this case, you don’t know’

Before he was getting nearly ousted by Judge, Steve Weiss on Monday's (2/24) Halftime Report found himself in a dandy little dust-up with Joe Terranova about what big institutional investors actually think about this market.

Joe started the show suggesting PLTR could fall to "84, 85." But Joe said it's a "mistake" to make a "binary" call on the overall market based on what momentum stocks are doing.

Weiss trimmed VRT. He said if he were "quicker," he would've bought some of it back on Monday in the 80s. Kind of out of the blue, Weiss claimed, "I think stagflation is a real risk."

On the other hand, "I don't see much problem with growth," said Anastasia Amoroso.

Judge said Tom Lee has 4 reasons (this page can't do more than 3) that last week's momentum stumble is just a "flesh wound." Grandpa Weiss said there are "other headwinds" that Tom isn't acknowledging.

That's when Joe tried making an analogy that Weiss disagreed with.

Joe asserted, "Momentum right now is driving the tape," but he noted APP and PLTR are not even back to their 50-day, while VRT is "below its 200-day moving average."

Joe said he cites that because the first 2 stocks show that "longer-term, non-discretionary institutional capital, they're not selling yet."

Grandpa Weiss argued, "I disagree with that Joe, they do have a reason to sell ... the valuations were egregious."

Joe said that's "statistically incorrect" and that Weiss is "not a multibillion-dollar institutional investor. That's what I'm talking about."

Weiss protested that Ken Griffin and Steve Cohen both are, and so are "many others" he talks to, but Joe told Weiss, "you don't know what they're doing at the moment."

Weiss asked Joe if those people are warning about "headwinds" while "leveraging up to overvalue technology stocks."

Joe, who generally doesn't look at his antagonists when he gets into arguments (which isn't often), said "that is an individual macro view" and "they have a team of strategies (sic meant 'strategists')" managing big portfolios.

Weiss said with Steve Cohen, "There is one risk manager there: That is Steve Cohen."

Joe said, "With all due respect in this case, you don't know."

Weiss said, "That's actually not accurate."

Joe then dismissed the debate as "ridiculous." Weiss said, "It's not ridiculous."

Judge scolded Joe and Weiss, "Do your thing out on the street when we're done," it's Anastasia's turn. Gorgeous in purple & black ensemble while sitting between an argument, Anastasia said tech stocks are selling off "because hedge fund managers, in aggregate, have been trimming them."

Aside from Joe and Weiss' debate, given this curious meltdown starting in late February, we're beginning to think 2025 may be a year of the classic Larry Altman (see archives) observation of the market often (not always, but often) bottoming in the 1st or 2nd week of March and the 1st or 2nd week of October.

Happy (Tuesday) birthday, Karen Finerman!

After the A Block on Monday's (2/24) argumentative Halftime Report, Judge asked Steve Weiss about trimming META as if nothing happened. ("Got a little sidetracked," Judge told viewers.)

Weiss said he trimmed META Friday but it's still his largest position. He "slightly" reduced his new DKS position. He also sold another 10% of bitcoin.

Weiss also trimmed UBER, saying he had a "really good gain in a very short time," and there's "some hype in the stock, uh, from a recent tweet by a, by a well-known hedge-fund manager." (But is that well-known hedge-fund manager his own risk manager, or does he have teams doing it on their own?)

Judge said a CNBC Pro survey found DECK to be among the most "oversold" stocks. Joe Terranova said it hit a 52-week high on Jan. 30 and now is near a 52-week low, which we didn't know and in fact is a remarkable statistic.

Joe agreed that WELL is "overbought" based on the CNBC Pro findings.

The Fast Money crew on Monday noted how strong TMUS and T have been.

Tom Lee sees ‘very positive set-up for stocks’

Friday's (2/21) Halftime Report had a lot of the usual commentary that anyone would've expected; Weiss complaining about the administration, Jenny complaining multiples, Jim insisting steel prices are just about to soar (actually that last one did NOT happen).

But a couple hours later, on Closing Bell Overtime, we got the good stuff, when Tom Lee opined on the stock market.

"This is a market that is very skeptical of these new highs," Tom explained, and there's a "wall of worry," so he actually sees a "very positive set-up for stocks."

Morgan Brennan brought up the ever-popular Michigan sentiment survey. Tom noted that "almost 7%" of Democratic respondents to the survey believe inflation is currently at "25%."

For years, Jenny has been unloading UNH shares out of new customers’ portfolios

The best discussion on Friday's (2/21) Halftime Report was the UNH debate.

Steve Weiss bought more UNH, even though, according to Judge, Bill Ackman said its market cap "makes no sense."

Weiss knocked Bill's "reactionary" tweet and terminology of "psychological short." Weiss rattled off a bunch of reasons for liking UNH, including the "arms race in terms of coding."

"To say this is a, this company is just evil to its core is really, really asinine," Weiss concluded.

Jenny Harrington, though, stated, "I want to get behind Bill's psychological short, because that's where I sit too."

Jenny revealed, "I frequently inherit portfolios with a large, low-cost-basis UNH position, and the first thing I do is cut it back. And that's been for years," because "at some point this is going to come into the government's crosshairs. ... Everyone I know who uses it, like, hates UNH."

Well, at the risk of being argumentative (this writer has no position in stock of UNH or any other health insurer), we would suggest that probably every health care insurer is disliked by many of its users. If anyone wants to change that, they can start covering everything, including back-pain treatments and anxiety, and double their premiums.

(No one suggested UNH customers might fear ICE raids.)

Jenny asserted that UNH has "too rich a multiple." That's when Jim Lebenthal cut in, stating, "It's not above market multiple anymore." Weiss said "it's very cheap" and noted growth of KO and PEP trading at a premium multiple "for perennially slow growth."

Weiss asked Jenny about cutting back those portfolios' UNH positions. Jenny affirmed, "If it's super big, and the capital gains are too big, then I cut it back." Weiss apparently questioned, correctly, why Jenny doesn't sell the "whole position" given her views, but Jenny was talking over him and we didn't hear it very well.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said the UNH situation is "ugly, but I think there's more to come here." Karen said it's "not expensive," but this is "sort of the first inning" with "more PR shoes to drop here." Tim Seymour said he wants to think it's a "buying opportunity"; he said "I don't know" if you should jump in on Monday, but "at some point, you're buying this weakness." Despite what Jenny said earlier, guest host Courtney Reagan said UNH is "trading at a 30-plus-percent discount to the S&P." Steve Grasso said UNH has a "bipartisan headwind."

Jim expects ‘positive’ year, but not a 25% year

Bryn Talkington described the Thursday-Friday-Jeremy-Siegel-Aug.-5-esque selloff with a physics lesson on Friday's (2/21) Halftime Report.

Bryn explained that "gravity is immutable," and that that particular law "applies to stocks as well."

Citing PLTR, Bryn said, "It's really dangerous to chase these names," and she thinks it'll "trade off headlines."

"I'll be a buyer of Robinhood if it gets into the 40s," Bryn added.

Bryn said "I'm not a big fan of P.E." but went on to cite the HOOD and PLTR P.E. ratios as a way to gauge what's been priced in. Bryn said 46 is the 50-day for HOOD, and that's where she'd "step in."

Steve Weiss said the momentum rollover is "symptomatic of a, of a bigger malaise (snicker) that's, that's affecting the market." Weiss said the stocks all went up on momentum and fundamentals and multiple expansion, not earnings.

Weiss didn't think the META 20-day run was "deserved," but his gains are "so significant" that for him, "it's a question of timing." (We think that means, he claims he thought it was overdone during the 20-day streak but didn't want to sell it because of the tax hit.)

Weiss then drew a stark comparison, saying other names were a situation of "the emperor had no clothes, or the clothes were a skimpy thong instead of a full outfit." Judge said "I can't unsee that now," and Jenny Harrington called Weiss' terminology an "interesting analogy."

Judge aired a clip of Ken Griffin airing concerns about tariffs and long-term U.S. alliances. In a lengthy speech, Jenny said she did a "really deep study" and found "the most likely worst case" would be a hit of "half a percent of GDP."

Jim Lebenthal said earnings growth is projected to be "enough to support this market," though "I don't think we'll have another 25% year, but still a positive year from here." Jim also said "deregulation is real." Jim again brought up the "esoteric" topic that he enjoys talking about, which is Treasury Department spending (Zzzzzzzzzzz).

Later on Fast Money, Steve Grasso observed that "Apple is the only one that's up since DeepSeek." Steve said AAPL is being rewarded for announced investments of only $10 billion in AI, whereas others are at $100 billion, "so DeepSeek has proven their, their base case ... you can do it on the cheap." Karen said the market's done some broadening, so NVDA's earnings report is a "little less important than it used to be." Karen said the only thing wrong with WMT was that it was "too high going in."

Tepper was in his hot tub in Palm Beach in a good mood

As Judge brought up China stocks, Steve Weiss revealed on Friday's (2/21) Halftime Report, "I talked to Dave as he was getting out of his hot tub last night, Palm Beach, um, so he was in a good mood."

(We're actually not sure Tepper's been on Halftime since a few years ago when he joined from home in shorts and a T-shirt and immediately irked Judge by responding to questions like it was "The Hollywood Squares," one of the funniest episodes this decade.)

Weiss said "it's kinda strange" that China stocks would be "safer" than those in the U.S. Judge questioned "safer." Weiss said they are, "absolutely" now, because "there, there's no uncertainty." Weiss bought KWEB and PDD.

Jim Lebenthal, Jenny Harrington and Weiss all speculated about Berkshire's cash pile. Jim said the conversation is kind of like finding "shapes in the cloud."

Jim trimmed C, which got "simply too large," and bought more WYNN; "this is portfolio management."

Jim sold DE, despite its great year (it basically bottomed on Jeremy Siegel Day, Aug. 5), saying the farm recovery "is more than priced in."

Judge said William Blair is downgrading defense.

Bryn: Buyers will scoop up any ‘meaningful selloff’ in bitcoin

Judge on Friday's (2/21) Halftime Report asked Bryn Talkington, who owns IBIT, about bitcoin.

Bryn said gold's "been getting a lot more shine" than bitcoin. But longer term in bitcoin, "If we got any type of meaningful selloff, people are gonna step back in and buy it."

Steve Weiss reiterated that bitcoin to him is a "purely momentum trade" and there's "no utility for it whatsoever."

Jim Lebenthal trimmed AMZN and GOOG and bought ADBE and AMAT. Weiss cautioned that ADBE "can be disintermediated very quickly."

Bryn predicted UBER has a "9-handle, um, sometime this year."

Santoli didn't make the Halftime Report but turned up on Closing Bell and said there's evidence of a "stutter step in, in growth"; Santoli was just getting going and turned up on Overtime also.

Guest host Courtney Reagan on Fast Money said weighted blankets (hers weighs 15 pounds) are "amazing."

Kari suggests customers at MCD or WMT might fear being around an ICE raid

On Profit-Taking Day on Thursday (2/21), the Halftime Report took up some high-flying stocks.

Joe Terranova said PLTR "probably can fall into the 84 to 85 dollar level," but if you're not in it, "that's the spot that potentially you wanna buy it."

Josh Brown said PLTR is a "highly specific situation" but "emblematic" of the markets. He said it's "one of the best-positioned companies in the world," but "It's a 528-times trailing P.E."

Josh said it's "kind of in a no-man's land" but that traders are "already out."

Joe said he's "a little bit more concerned" about APP than PLTR.

Kari Firestone offered a really curious explanation for WMT and MCD outlooks, stating it's a "difficult subject," but "perhaps their customers are concerned about being in a location where there's an ICE a- an ICE raid. The workers may be concerned about that; it is affecting their business."

Kari said SHAK is a "higher demographic" and didn't see the same pressure.

Joe said he wouldn't be surprised if WMT and COST move "sideways."

Josh said SHAK "should be like 150, 160" and would be having "a much bigger day" if the market wasn't so bad.

Judge asked Kari why she's still in BAH. Kari said she trimmed recently but it "would've been wise" to sell more.

Judge confused CVNA with KMX.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said WMT "seemed to be sandbagging somewhat" with the guidance, and she would not sell it.

Stephanie indicates that valuation doesn’t help stocks that are sliding

After the A Block, Stephanie Link joined Thursday's (2/20) Halftime Report remotely to say she trimmed CRWD. (This writer is long CRWD.)

Stephanie said she bought it last summer when it was "down 41% from its highs" (maybe the No. 1 metric for CNBCers) and is "up 97% from August 2nd."

Stephanie said "I got lucky" and "timed it really well" and added it throughout August, but "it's prudent to take money off the table." She moved those funds to PANW because it's a "laggard" in the space. (So the money's already apparently back on the table.)

Stephanie claimed, "Momentum is great on the- on the way up, Scott. But when the momentum turns and it's on the way down, the valuation support (we think it was 'support') is very, very hard to use as a tool."

Whoa ... that's a really curious statement ... so momentum is great going up ... but when momentum goes south, "valuation" doesn't protect anything.

At least that's what it sounds like.

Stephanie said if CRWD falls 20% "from here," she'd probably buy it back.

Bill Baruch noted CRWD's drop but said "the narrative is in place" and the need for cybersecurity is "extraordinary."

Stephanie bought more UNH with the intention of building a "very large position" this year. Judge suggested there's a "buyers strike" in that stock.

Judge, Santoli fail to explain how the Chiefs ‘Happy Feet’ quarterback played one of the worst games in NFL history

Well into Thursday's (2/20) Haltime Report, Mike Santoli curiously took issue with the slogan about great teams winning the close games, stating, "You know what great teams do? They play fewer close games. They are dominant."

Judge said the Chiefs "won like 12 1-score games and then got destroyed in the Super Bowl."

Santoli clarified he doesn't think stocks are due for the same "washout" that the Chiefs experienced.

Joe Terranova, who made a great buy in BABA, said momentum is "accelerating" in the stock and the "next stop" is 150.

Judge noted Howard Lutnick was putting cruise ship stocks under pressure.

Judge and Kari Firestone said EPAM had a "weak guide."

Joe said ADSK isn't really in a great place and its momentum has a "very strong yellow light."

Judge and Joe noted how far AXON fell Thursday after hitting a 52-week high this week. Joe said you have to wait for earnings.

Bill Baruch said WDAY is a "potential winner in AI" and it's "not a high-flier name." Joe said he likes ZM, which reports Monday.

Bill's Final Trade was LNG, which he said is "bottoming out."

Kevin Simpson on Closing Bell said Thursday is a "great day for Trade School" (snicker) (haven't had many of those for a while) about hedging high-momentum stocks.

Karen Finerman apparently realized on Thursday's Fast Money that one of the show's guests, Tanger CEO Stephen Yalof, was baseball coach for one of her sons.

Weiss draws strange analogy of government employees to people escaping New York

Early on Wednesday's (2/19) Halftime Report, Judge told Steve Weiss that "a lot of people" thought good returns this year would be "a layup."

But Judge noted that Weiss trimmed his bitcoin "holding," and Judge said bitcoin is "down 8½ percent in a month."

Weiss said he had previously said he'd start getting out "when the momentum dies," and he's sold 20% of it. He said bitcoin's stall is "the story of the market" (snicker).

Weiss claimed, "The government's bloated, unquestionably, every agency is severely bloated." But Weiss said CEOs want a "communicated strategy" about cuts, and he drew a strange analogy from people leaving government to people leaving New York: "So the richest moved, and you're left with those that are depleting your tax base."

Judge wondered what that's got to do with the market. Weiss said "it's got everything to do with the market, because there's instability."

Weiss insisted "this is not a political statement" and that he's not a Republican nor Democrat nor "archconservative" nor "liberal," but a "moderate."

Joe Terranova opined, "If you're bearish, you're frustrated right now." Joe said strength in China and Europe and Brazil and Mexico is "telling you something about the overall environment."

Judge demanded from Kari Firestone a "yes or no" answer as to whether the market is fading. Kari said "yes," though there's been "pockets of real strength" (that's called a qualifier).

Jason Snipe revealed, "I'm generally more bullish than I am bearish."

Still wondering how there can be ‘literally’ no reason to buy TTD

On Wednesday's (2/19) Halftime Report, Kari Firestone pointed to NVDA's earnings next week as a key moment for the stock market.

Steve Weiss shrugged, "We know what they're gonna say."

"No we don't," Judge argued.

Kari's new charitable trust has bought NVDA. Kari's trust also bought BMY (Zzzzzzzz).

Joe Terranova said ADBE is an "interesting value proposition," but "I don't think you can ignore the fact that AI is cannibalizing a lot of the existing products." Joe said CRM "is in a good place."

Joe said of APP, no one really knows "how high is high."

Jason Snipe owns DHI, which hit a 52-week low according to the screen graphic. Jason said "it's a wait and see moment" with the stock.

Joe articulated that homebuilding incentives have been increasing, and that what kept builders "elevated last summer" was the declining 10-year rate.

Kari told Judge the worst is behind KMX.

Weiss unloaded GXO.

Joe noted his "recent position" in BABA and given that it's reporting Thursday, "I'm either gonna look like a hero or a fool tomorrow morning."

On Fast Money, Grandpa Guy Adami complained that "U.S. consumers' serious delinquency rate — that's 90 days+ — it's at 11.4%. That's the highest we've seen in 13 years. And that's without us being in a recession. So we're missing payments at a rate as if we were in a recession." However, Guy did make a pretty good funny earlier in the show with a jab at guest host Dom Chu about the term keeping the "seat warm."

Joe’s argument that there’s ‘literally’ no reason to own TTD (other than, oh, it might go up) is challenged by Belski, Josh

Tuesday's (2/18) Halftime Report was rather humdrum, except when Joe Terranova claimed that people holding TTD "are not risk-managing your position."

Joe first protested to Judge that the JOET can't unload TTD because, as he states all the time, "The strategy can't exit TradeDesk until April 30th. Those are the rules. Can't rewrite 'em. SEC- SEC's not gonna allow me to do it for the narrative of the show (snicker)."

But Joe said, "If you own TradeDesk, and you are still sitting with TradeDesk, then you are not risk-managing your position. Because there is literally (sic) no reason to be in TradeDesk right now."

But Brian Belski owns it, "a small position," and said it's merely in a "2-quarter penalty box."

Belski said if you're a long-term holder, it's "too late to sell it," because he thinks it's "gonna work."

Josh Brown said he let a TTD profit turn into a loss as he was "blindsided" by the quarter. But Josh said he does agree with Belski about a "longer-term opportunity" with the stock.

Josh stated, "Comebacks happen more frequently than you think."

Joe should’ve sold TWLO a week earlier

Joe Terranova actually claimed at the top of Tuesday's (2/18) Halftime Report that "there's a compelling case Scott that can really be made for each and every (snicker) asset class."

Brian Belski said the demise of megacap tech has been "blown out of proportion," and he's "quite overweight the sector."

Josh Brown hailed the "communications sector" as the "most exciting" in tech, then rattled off a bunch of names such as FWONK and LYV that didn't really seem to have much to do with "communications," but whatever; he said they're "tech-adjacent."

Joe even talked up GWRE.

Joe sold TWLO on Friday at 125 after buying it Nov. 13 at "98 and a quarter."

Judge said Berkshire bought STZ. Sarat Sethi owns STZ but said it's in the "doghouse," however, it's at a decade-low multiple. Sarat said it's on his "watch list," he could add to the position, or sell it entirely.

Josh suggested Warren Buffett is being "contrarian" in selling AAPL and BAC and buying STZ.

Josh said Europe is in a "roaring bull market."

Belski said GILD has a "great pipeline," and he's doubled his position over the past year.

Josh Brown scoffed at the GILD chart as a "smile" and advised, "Let it break out."

Ideas: CNBC could use
a show like ‘The View’

CNBC has had practically the same Business Day lineup for 20 years.

Some show titles have changed; a lot of others remain the same. The closest thing to a new "concept" in the last decade was Mark Hoffman handing gobs of cash to Shep Smith to do a ... nonbiased evening news report.

There's basically been no recent blockbuster ideas at CNBC, unless you count keeping the "Shark Tank" rights holder/renewer on speed dial.

It's time for CNBC to break ground in Business Day programming with an all-women's show. While a lot of business subjects are universal (such as how much the Dow Jones Industrials are up or down), just take a look around Post 9 during any CNBC show that's helmed there, and you'll notice nearly all the folks in trading jackets are dudes.

Obviousy, there are probably a lot of female-centric topics not often getting attention. We've seen that CNBC's audience is 39% female. We don't know if that number is accurate. But it sounds right. How can there not be a bigger effort to reach that particular audience?

No one's saying, Turn Business Day programming into "The View." The show could be about anything from a Netflix earnings preview to algorithmic trading to financial advisor surveys to whether driverless cars will work to the price of eggs. The typical commentary on those subjects is majority male. This concept starts, like most others, as a 15-minute segment carved out of an existing show. There's a deep bench of talent that should be available for this type of programming, and not just current CNBC hosts ... can probably get, for guest appearances, Karen, Liz Ann, Savita, Diane, Cathy Wood, Dana, probably MCC, Jane Wells, maybe even Mellody, who could possibly even provide a soundbite or two from George ...

We're in the SpinCo Era now. CNBC needs some ideas. Fast.

Someone never told Josh who the other panelists were

Judge's Halftime Report on Friday (2/14) was so chock-ful of stocks, we couldn't begin to list every one that was mentioned.

But before they really got into that, they took up some of the goings-on in Washington, as Judge said the story of the day is the "resilient stock market."

Josh Brown said there's "been a vibe shift" since last fall and "I don't wanna get political (snicker)," but he thinks people give the administration "the benefit of the doubt" that tariffs won't crush the economy or market and that "we're sort of looking through that."

Josh said we're also looking through "inflation scares."

Jason Snipe said "the delay on tariffs is a big deal."

Judge said Piper Sandler thinks "a lot of investors" may think Trump is "more bark than bite when it comes to tariffs," but Piper thinks that's a "mistake."

Kevin Simpson, who recently has gotten a sharp haircut, said there's probably a lot of "exceptions" in the tariffs, but the "uncertainty" is the "real risk" now.

Josh seemed to think it was Belski on the program instead of Jason Snipe.

Stephanie Link argued that tech is lagging because of tariffs.

Kevin buys TSLA

In the day's biggest revelation, Kevin Simpson on Friday's (2/14) Halftime Report said he bought TSLA, saying he sold half the position Feb. 3 at 385 and bought it back. (Translation: He's successfully trading it.)

Maybe Kevin hit a bottom, but it'll be hard to top Bill Baruch's 52-week low buy last year.

Stephanie Link bought PANW. Jason Snipe said PANW was down because it didn't have a "blowout quarter," but he thinks PANW and CRWD can continue to work. (This writer is long CRWD.)

Judge said "new (sic redundant) record high" yet again, this time regarding the equal-weight Nasdaq.

Kevin said he owns META in both his growth and dividend funds. He noted the buybacks and said "all we need now is for Zuck to give us a stock split, and hopefully that's coming." (On Friday's Fast Money, Mike Khouw said of META, "On a short-term basis, it feels a little bit stretched to me." But "if you own it, I wouldn't- I wouldn't sell it.")

Kevin said ADBE is a "show me" story.

Jason Snipe noted that AAPL was down 14% "just a couple weeks ago."

Judge said TMUS is up 21% year to date; Kevin Simpson has it in his growth fund and thinks it will go higher.

Josh touted how great financials have done amid the current rate environment and stated "we don't need emergency rate cuts." #messagetoJeremy

Josh said GILD is breaking out.

Josh called 275 "realistic" for UNP.

Contessa Brewer joined late to trumpet DKNG and WYNN. (But the Super Bowl's done for 12 months.) (We think we heard, at one of those Super Hype press conferences in New Orleans the week before the game, Contessa ask Jalen Hurts about his investment portfolio, and Jalen saying he couldn't get into it at that time.)

On Fast Money, Contessa again spoke about gaming stocks. Guest host Tyler Mathisen (he's still doing guest spots) asked Contessa who she picked in the Super Bowl. Contessa said, "I didn't gamble on it, because I usually lose my sports bets, and I hate losing."

Back on Halftime, Josh called SHAK "very oversold."

The biggest chuckler of the day came on the next show, The Exchange, when Sully complained to Michelle Meyer about the nation's credit card debt and lamented, "Nobody. Seems. To. Care." Michelle said "the fundamentals are supportive."

Wonder if Al texted Judge about What In The World Was Patrick Mahomes Doing In Last Sunday’s Game

Judge on Thursday's (2/13) Halftime Report said TTD was "getting destroyed" on its "worst day ever" for the stock. That wasn't great news for Josh Brown, who on Tuesday (2/11) had made it his Final Trade at 120.

Josh on Thursday said he sold TTD, saying the company had "nothing positive to say," and "it was already a nosebleed-high momentum name with a crazy valuation" (which wasn't part of the Final Trade). Josh said it needs to be in the "penalty box" for "1 or 2 quarters." He said it was a "really easy sale to make" and he won't be back in "anytime soon."

On the plus side, Judge noted MCO's "new (sic redundant) record high" a week after Josh pitched it to Al Michaels.

Josh said "It's a strong story getting stronger" and suggested, "if you're a trader, you wanna play with the house's money" (that term is always problematic with stocks ... it's not the house's money, it's your money ...) and use $500 as a "pivot point."

Moments later, Judge reported, "Al says he bought some Moody's calls. He just told me that." Josh said he doesn't know where Al's strikes or expirations are, "but so far, so good."

Judge chuckled, "Obviously, he believes in you."

One thing we don't believe in anymore is the Kansas City Chiefs offense, given that their quarterback literally played maybe the worst game we've ever seen (at least by a player who's a respected starter) and his glorified-offensive-coordinator coach did absolutely nothing to change it except stare at his chart.

Judge claims META’s streak is a miracle

Liz Young Thomas and Judge agreed at the top of Thursday's (2/13) Halftime Report — a strong, crisp show — that this is a "resilient" market; Liz said the market "shrugged off" the inflation numbers from Wednesday and mentioned "hot" about 3 times.

Josh Brown marveled at the unprecedented META winning streak but stated "it's way overbought here, so a pullback, obviously, makes sense." Josh said if you're not in it and want to own it, "Let it cool off" and then get in.

Judge actually claimed, in an indication of stock market hyperbole, "The streak has been just miraculous."

Kevin Simpson said he expects a lot of money managers to trim META "because it's becoming such a big position."

Kevin said HOOD "crushed it" on earnings. "We bought it on December 9th at 40," Kevin said.

Judge said Tony Pasquariello's strategy is "long the market, with tail protection (snicker)." Bill Baruch said, "I think he's right" and "I'm pretty bullish right here."

A day earlier, on Closing Bell, Adam Parker defended his trim-Mag-7 theory, suggesting going from 30% of the portfolio to 22%.

Bill pins a $600 on CRWD

On Thursday's (2/13) Halftime Report, Kevin Simpson said he bought PANW and touted the whole cybersecurity space.

Josh Brown touted CRWD (this writer is long CRWD) and said no company is talking about cutting its cybersecurity budget, but "ultimately," instead of a number of successes, the cyber space will concentrate around a small group of winners.

Bill Baruch got our attention by bluntly stating, "As earnings grow, this is a $600 stock, CrowdStrike."

Josh was asked to explain the RDDT trading activity. "It's another outstanding quarter," Josh said, explaining it was down bigger overnight, to 185, because of "algorithms" that don't understand the "nuance" of the earnings report. Later, "They bought the dip," Josh said.

Judge said Goldman Sachs hiked its LYV target from 148 to 166. Josh said that one is an "extremely special asset," and he praised Mike Rapino for handling "such a difficult business to run."

At least ADBE wasn’t favored in the Super Bowl

Talking up European equities, Josh Brown pointed out on Thursday's (2/13) Halftime Report that "FEZ is up 14% year to date."

Bill Baruch observed that "it sold off in the quarter 4," but "I think there's some tailwinds here."

Judge told Josh, "you're basically playing the bottom ... that you've seen the bottom, in, in Europe." Bill said it could get "tailwinds from the euro" if the dollar is topping.

Liz Young Thomas said the "unpopular opinion is that international outperforms the U.S. this year," however, Europe is "not the first place" Liz would be looking. Josh said, "China beat the S&P last year, almost nobody you talk to knows that."

Kevin Simpson said he thinks DASH is going higher. Bill Baruch said he added to HUBS last week; he said he uses it "internally" and it's a "terrific product." Bill added that "this is a takeover target."

Kevin is "lukewarm at best" on ADBE and said its performance "befuddles" him because "all of us use Adobe." We agree. That's a great point. Adobe in the CNBCfix world is ... everywhere.

Kevin bought CRM, saying he sees "tremendous, tremendous upside."

Bill said he "doubled down" on T in late 2022 when it "had some fears." (In late 2022, he should've bought all kinds of META, which EVERY panelist on the Halftime Report just KNEW was way undervalued.) Josh said AT&T and TMobile "both look great."

Liz Young Thomas said she likes energy and "probably" will like it for the whole year.

Weiss claims to actually think the next Fed move may be a hike

Judge on Wednesday's (2/12) Halftime Report was really liking the term "Lag 7" and threw it around quite a bit, noting tech and discretionary are the only sectors down this year.

Steve Weiss said he's not troubled by how the Mag 7 has performed in a "moment in time."

Then Grandpa Weiss questioned if the Fed is "on hold" for a cut ... or a hike.

Judge said "I think it's on hold for a cut" and there's "no evidence at all" that it's on hold for a hike.

"That's not true," Weiss said.

"No it is true," Judge said.

Weiss mentioned "today's number." But Judge got Weiss to admit he's not investing as though the next move is a hike.

Weiss, who mentioned a "clown car" of the Cabinet, said Larry Summers and Ken Griffin (see below) are "not a fool" and Summers is saying "what's accurate." Judge said "the likely outcome is not a hike." Weiss said, "'Don't be sanguine' is my message."

Veering into DOGE-land, Weiss at one point said, "Look, I'm all for cutting costs. There are way too many excesses, way too much overspending in government. But I'm also for a cogent- cogently communicated plan of doing it, not sensationalism. And that's what we have."

Joe Terranova eventually cut in, "I feel like we're having a conversation about the Giants winning the Super Bowl next year, 'cause if we do have to raise rates ... you raise rates once, at best."

Joe said he disagrees with the term "Lag 7" and said you "absolutely" want to own AMZN, and stay with META. Judge stressed that no one is saying you should or shouldn't own the Mag 7 and protested that "as a group, it has been the Lag 7." Joe said some of those will do well, but he doesn't think TSLA's prospects are good, citing a "graphite issue."

Judge apparently got a phone chime during his "momentum" observations and had to "silence" the phone/device. Joe said he's beginning to see momentum names underperforming and "struggling."

Joe: Market flat since Dec. 12

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (2/12) Halftime Report said it's going to be a "difficult game" in 2025 to "focus on where the overall market is."

Joe noted that over 60 days, going back to Dec. 12, "we're basically running flat."

Judge said Grandpa Larry Summers posted that this is "the riskiest period for inflation policy since the early Biden administration." But Judge said the market isn't "hung up" on comments by Summers or Ken Griffin (it was Day 2 of that story).

Shannon Saccocia echoed Joe about not focusing on "larger indexes."

And if steel prices go up ... AND if earnings go up ... AND we keep the same historical multiple ... then Cleveland-Cliffs is a triple!!!

Steve Weiss on Wednesday's (2/12) Halftime Report returned to one of his favorite subjects (no, not the difference between the 2 presidential candidates in 2024): how a robotaxi fleet is a lot more costlier than the current Uber model.

Weiss highlighted "the cost of putting robotaxis on the street; nobody's talking about that," and that there's not drivers paying for insurance or maintenance.

Even so, Joe Terranova said "momentum's building" in UBER and it'll be "going into the 80s."

Joe bought CVS and called it an "easy trade," buying it against Tuesday's close of 55.

Joe also bought BABA. #Tepper

Weiss bought more VRT, which was sliding.

Kari Firestone joined remotely and said she bought EPAM, which we're not sure we've ever heard mentioned on the show. Kari bought AVGO and CHE, the latter another one rarely if ever mentioned. Kari trimmed WAB and sold FTV.

Joe said BRK seems to like buying OXY "around 45, 46."

During Final Trades, Joe said he was "fixated" on Judge's "tie and jacket combination." Judge said that was "pandering to the host."

On Fast Money, Grandpa Guy Adami said "inflation's a problem" and knocked the use of "transitory," and claimed, "It's only, I think, gonna get worse."

Weiss says ‘nobody believes’ that 25% tariffs on steel are going to happen

About 1/4 of Tuesday's (2/11) Halftime Report got preempted by the Fed.

Judge asserted that the Fed has become "as inconsequential to the path of- of a stock market, um, that I can remember" and that "there's a general feeling that there is Goldilocks to be had."

Judge also tried to sing the praises of Jerome Powell, but it generally fell on deaf ears.

Grandpa Steve Weiss conceded "it's all working now" but predicted we'll stay in a "trading range."

Weiss said prospects for IPOs and M&A has "ground to a halt."

Judge tried to sell Josh Brown on the idea that the Fed's done a great job and just isn't taking credit. Josh said, "He's not taking credit, because he may be the firefighter, but he's also the arsonist."

Josh said it's "documented" how "absurd" it was to continue monetary stimulus "into the pandemic and beyond."

Josh asserted that "this is an incredible earnings season."

Weiss bluntly declared, "Nobody believes that the 25% tariffs across the board in steel, whatever, are going to come to fruition. Because if they did believe that, then the market would be a lot lower."

Judge asked, "Would it?" Weiss said, "Oh, without a doubt."

Weiss bought DKS, correctly saying management "continues to excel." (When that stock gets mentioned on Fast Money, you get Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami making wisecracks and raising eyebrows for the camera.) (Karen Finerman, though, does NOT include that company on her list of "3 worst corporate names of all time," which includes The Athlete's Foot, Fifth Third Bank and the standard-bearer, Dress Barn.)

Weiss said he added to LDOS on the earnings-report pullback.

Judge hectors Jim over why Jim never predicted a tariff boost for CLF

Judge posed a great question.

Everyone on Monday's (2/10) Halftime Report, including Jim Lebenthal, chuckled when Judge brought up CLF.

Judge asked Jim, "Did you figure that tariffs were coming on steel and aluminum."

Jim claimed, "I feel like it- it had to come."

Then things got serious. Judge said, "If you thought that this was gonna happen, why weren't you pounding the table on Cleveland Cliffs. Which- whose stock by the way has traded like garbage."

"You're not joking," Jim observed.

"No no no, I didn't hear you come on and say 'Buy it because there's gonna be tariffs," Judge said. "Did you say 'tariffs'?"

"What I said, Scott, was- and I'll do this again for the umpteenth (sic) (hasn't really been "umpteenth") time ... this is about steel prices. It has always been about steel prices," Jim said, claiming that if a bunch of things happen, "it's a triple."

Judge continued, and scored points with a Wilbur Ross reference: "It traded like garbage. If- you- you were very quick to get out of General Motors when you thought that tariffs were coming there. I didn't hear you suggesting that well, 'Hey guys, remember the playbook from '16 will Wilbur- where Wilbur Ross held up the Campbell's soup can on CNBC and talked about aluminum and steel prices. Well I think Trump's gonna double down on that again, so this is the moment, for that reason alone.'"

Jim protested, "You have heard me say repeatedly, and I'm not even gonna get animated about this (as he got slightly animated), because it's factual and you will- you as the Judge will back me up that this has been entered into evidence. That multiple times over the last few months, I've said it's a triple from here. At $10 a share ... Now listen, listen, if I say it's a triple, I don't need to beat my chest and do monkey moves here, OK. That's all I need to say."

Actually, Judge was only wondering whether predicting a tariff bounce was all that Jim really needed to say (and Jim never did).

Judge asked if this is a "believable move in the stock," or whether it should be sold. Jim of course said "I am not selling a share."

Joe Terranova said tariff headlines will only "accelerate."

Jim said he was in D.C., and, "I can tell you, the Republican Party, their tentpole is tariffs. And it's not- it's not bluster."

Everyone’s on the UBER bandwagon again

Late into Monday's (2/10) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova said he "got back in to UBER on Friday," saying it was "rules-based, mechanical."

Judge wondered if Joe's move really was "Ackman-based."

Joe admitted "you have to attribute" the recent move to Ackman, then gave a speech about how he thought back in February 2023 it would go to $100. (At least he didn't say that he knew META was going to quintuple in November-December 2022.) Joe apparently had an "elective stop" to get back in once the price surged, as it did on the Ackman buys.

Amy recommends being ‘underweight’ the ‘overowned’ Mag 7

Judge opened Monday's (2/10) Halftime Report talking about Dave Tepper's interest in "several of the China internet names" (Zzzzzzz).

Judge cautioned that Tepper can be "tactical" and that 13Fs can be "dangerous" (snicker) because they're "backward-looking." But Judge said he understands this is the "real deal."

Joe Terranova said those names started to rally in mid-September with China's stimulus policy change.

Amy Raskin said her issues with China companies is that they're not necessarily run for profit but "sort of as extensions of the government."

Judge said Adam Parker is saying to "sell some Mag 7" (snicker). Jim Lebenthal talked about a broadening (snicker). Amy said the "right call" is to be "underweight" the Mag 7, which are "overowned."

Rob Sechan said he wouldn't be surprised to see "giveback" in META. Rob added, "We're up 500% since we added it in ... (drum roll) ... (you know which time frame he's going to say) ... December '22." (Tip: Everybody on the show in November-December 2022 knew that META was hugely undervalued and loaded up on the stock.)

Amy Raskin trimmed IONQ because it's a "very volatile name." Amy, who more than any other panelist tends to take fliers on some little-known tech names, bought more PI. From the chart, it appears to have done a round trip around $100 over the past 12 months, but somewhere in the middle, it managed to hit 239.

Amy likes ILMN long term, but she thinks it'll be "noisy."

Rob said he likes TSM because it's got a "reasonable" valuation; he said he added it on "DeepState (sic) Monday," which Judge corrected.

Jim said DE stock is doing a lot better than DE the company.

Al Michaels was right about a couple of things regarding the Super Bowl

On Thursday, this page kinda took issue with Al Michaels' not-terribly-specific Super Bowl outlook.

Al didn't pick either of the teams to win.

But Al did say, "I think defense prevails on Sunday." Honestly, you can kinda say that about nearly every Super Bowl. (Even 52, in which both offenses ran up gargantuan amounts of yardage.) Especially if you won't name which TEAM is going to prevail.

However, no question, Super Bowl LIX was about an LV-like shutdown of the Kansas City Chiefs offense.

Al also predicted that Jalen Hurts would win "at least 1" Super Bowl. Again, it wasn't a prediction specifically for Sunday's game ... but it's already true.

This page, which predicted a Chiefs 3-peat back in January (see below) (oops) (gulp) (we also predicted a Mag 7 3-peat; that one is still TBD), has to eat crow, but honestly, we have no idea where this game came from. If someone had told us the final score in advance, we would've assumed it was the Chiefs with 40.

Pro football may be 90% predictable, but not 100%.

Weiss correctly salutes Bill’s great buy of UBER on the dip

Judge on Friday's (2/7) Halftime Report reported on Ackman taking a stake in UBER.

Josh Brown said Ackman said he "started" buying in early January, but looking at Thursday's action in the name, "you could tell he was sucking this thing up like, uh, Daniel Plainview."

Josh said, "I'm telling you, this is a hundred-dollar stock."

Weiss correctly gave Bill Baruch a shout-out for buying UBER "on the dip." Indeed. Bill's announced buy of UBER on Wednesday evokes memories of last year's getting-TSLA-at-the-bottom call and could be a Call of the Year contender, depending on how things go. (We also know that every time a bunch of people start talking up this name, it seems to stall. But whatever.)

Judge opened the show saying META was trying for its 15th straight up day.

Jenny Harrington said META "deserves to be Magnificent 1." Steve Weiss merely said META "executed best" of the Mag 7 names in the last quarter.

Josh Brown said he's "just been totally wrong" in not having "excess exposure" to META.

Josh said CRWD is "the 5th-best performing stock year to date in the S&P 500," which puts it in the "pantheon of comebacks" since its "44% drawdown last summer." (This writer is long CRWD.)

Weiss said he's not selling any of his NFLX shares. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Jenny Harrington was asked about SWKS; this page hasn't paid attention to that name in a long time. Of course, Jenny thinks the selloff is "overdone." She said she's exiting the stock, "but not today," because the drop is just "too much."

Bryn Talkington said she owns RBLX "around 30." She said it's defied the skeptics and remains "a very sticky platform" in an "interesting ecosystem."

On Friday's Fast Money, Steve Grasso offered, "I wouldn't be buying Mag 7 right now."

Steve also suggested X has a "chance" to get into the "50s." (This writer is long X.)

Al Michaels doesn’t make a call on who will win the Super Bowl

The star of Thursday's (2/6) Halftime Report, as he always is whenever he makes a guest appearance, was sportscasting legend Al Michaels.

"This is my favorite show on television," Al told Judge.

Judge asked Al for a "deciding factor" in the Super Bowl. Al said, "Defense" (snicker). (Um, has Al noticed what happens in the 4th quarter/overtime of Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowls?)

Al said this game has "2 of the best defensive coordinators of all time." Honestly, that's a stretch.

Nevertheless, Al said, "I think defense prevails on Sunday." (We'll take the other side of that.) Al predicted Jalen Hurts will win "at least 1" Super Bowl.

Meanwhile, on stocks, Al made an indirect reference to FAS, which he called a "day-trading stock" but which quite frankly has been a phenomenal investment vehicle. (This writer is long FAS, a tiny bit, and had a lot more last year.)

Josh Brown offered MCO for Al. We don't think MCO has been mentioned on the show ... maybe ever.

Al also mentioned CLF (but not like in a bullish way).

Al said Andy Jassy is a "gigantic sports fan."

Judge jokes that someone tried to get between Josh and a camera

In what proved to be a bit of hyperbole, Josh Brown on Thursday's (2/6) Halftime Report suggested AMZN's report would be "The Super Bowl of the Mag 7 reports." (This review was posted overnight Thursday-Friday.)

Josh said, "I think she wants 300." Joe Terranova said he agrees and once again for whatever reason made his "you can't have it both ways with revenue growth" statement and said AMZN has the revenue growth.

Josh was able to crow about the rebound in UBER; he said there was "not one thing discussed" in the earnings call that changed his mind about the stock even though the initial reaction was selloff.

Josh said the UBER call was not the reason for the stitch around his eye. Judge said, "I was wondering a little bit about the stitch, I was wondering ... if someone tried to get between you and a camera or microphone."

Josh is already out of BMY (why he was in it, who knows, as this page already pointed out) and said 61 (maybe like MLB's home run record) seems to be resistance and he'll take another look if it gets there.

Joe said MRK is down 33% from its June high and "looks like a literal ski slope."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said she prefers META to PINS but acknowledged PINS could be acquired by somebody, while "META realistically could not."

Judge directs Post 9 cameras
to spotlight Joe

Things got humorous enough midway through Wednesday's (2/5) Halftime Report that it was actually the funniest episode in months.

Jim Lebenthal touted XOM and said that if you own energy stocks, you basically have to start with XOM.

Judge scoffed that Jim, in his extended commentary, was basically saying "the stock wins either way," that it's "stock great" whether oil goes up or oil goes down.

Jim responded, "The simple answer is, the starting point (snicker) matters here."

Judge asked, "What if their arms are twisted" by the White House to drill more. Jim said he'll take the question "at face value"; Judge seemed surprise that Jim might not.

Jim said, "If that happens, that's bad for the stock."

Steve Weiss, though, bluntly stated, "If the commodity goes down in price, the share price is going down. Period. End of story."

Weiss further posited that if Trump and his "good friend Putin" are able to "settle the war in Ukraine," and the embargo goes off Russian oil, that would be bad for Big Oil. Jim said, "What if unicorns start flying from Post 9 at the New York Stock Exchange ..."

Joe Terranova cut in to say "credit Tony Pasquariello" for reporting that energy was the only sector in the first Trump term to be negative. Judge scoffed, "All right, I mean, everybody knew that. ... We said that a thousand times in, like, during the election coverage."

The crew chuckled about giving Tony shout-outs. Perhaps making up for Monday's photo-op (see below), Joe mugged for the camera during a conversation about HOOD, after Judge demanded, "I want the camera shot on Joe individually."

Weiss actually asked Jim if the QCOM report was going to be a "win-win." Jim said "You are just a source of hilarity every day. And I appreciate it." Joe said "let's add to the hilarity"; he didn't have any more statistics from Tony Pasquariello.

Joe’s already dismissing a stock that the JOET just added

Joe ran afoul of Judge late in Wednesday's (2/5) Halftime Report when YUMC came up and Joe admitted, "I don't like where it is."

Judge said, "Wait a minute, you just added it to the JOET, are you telling me the momentum's gone? You add things on momentum."

Joe said it was added "more on quality" than momentum. Judge insisted, "You're telling me it checked the momentum box last week and then it doesn't check it this week? What am I missing here."

Joe said, "What you're missing is that there's no way you can own a portfolio of stocks and love each one of those stocks equally." Judge said "Thanks for the explanation."

Judge carped about Joe offering his Final Trade (AXON) without his name being called.

Joe demands panelists stop having it ‘both ways’ on Mag 7 revenues

Jim Lebenthal opened Wednesday's (2/5) Halftime Report saying one takeaway from Alphabet's report is that "you don't have to worry" about search. Jim said now's a "great price" and "opportunity" to buy it.

Steve Weiss said he agrees with Jim's commentary and added Jim's "omission" of YouTube as a strength and said that while he wouldn't mind a lower capex number, "it's fine." Joe Terranova said Alphabet positioning is "extremely bullish."

Bryn Talkington, who was remote and seemed bewildered by the humor occurring on the show Wednesday, said she likes META and AMZN better than "flat-for-a-year" MSFT.

Joe said of META and the Mag 7, "you can't dismiss if you see a slowdown in that revenue." Joe argued that "you can't have it both ways" of applauding revenue when it's accelerating and ignoring it when there's "moderation," which Joe said is "beginning to happen."

Weiss disagreed, saying though Joe is "factually" correct, a name like Alphabet for example still has 30% cloud growth rather than 35%. Weiss predicted a "reacceleration." Joe wasn't impressed by Weiss' argument and restated "You can't have it both ways" in terms of revenue growth.

CNBC's Steve Kovach said AAPL's China headwinds are "not going the other way anytime soon."

Bryn Talkington blamed UBER's Q1 concerns on L.A. fires and the southern snowstorm and a bigger fx hit; "those are all just like exogenous events." We thought Josh Brown, who wasn't on the panel, would make an appearance to defend this stock as he always does; instead, Bill Baruch joined remotely to say he bought more UBER on the "overreaction."

Steve Weiss suggested UBER is not yet a "truly great company" because it can't yet "navigate" any kind of "tough circumstance." He's not selling but is not excited about the stock.

Jim said the only thing that troubles him about DIS' earnings is the dip in Disney+ subscribers. (What about the Iger "succession" (er, 3-year extension) plan ...)

Joe said "you have to acknowledge" that financials are working and "there's a reason to be there."

Josh says Tariff Wars are ‘40 years of the same rant’

A day ago (see below) on the Halftime Report, Steve Weiss offered his opinion of the current presidency.

Early into Tuesday's (2/4) show, Josh Brown got a chance:

"Everyone around the world now understands that this is a reality show. The intention of announcing tariffs is to hold the news cycle in the palm of his hand. And none of this stuff is new. There's a New York Times article from 6 years ago talking about this moment in 1988 where Trump was outbid, way before politics, for a piano that was used in the movie 'Casablanca,' and he was so mad that the bidder was Japanese, that he went on TV with Diane Sawyer and said, 'We have to do tariffs, these countries don't respect us, we need to tariff, we need to tariff.' This is 40 years of the same rant."

Bryn says ‘Don’t look at P.E.’ in regard to PLTR

Bryn Talkington joined Tuesday's (2/4) Halftime Report remotely to discuss PLTR, a stock Bryn has talked about for a couple years (and a stock that this page unfortunately shrugged off for a couple years).

Bryn said the stock has surged this week and in recent months because it's "very underowned" and "people just don't really- did not really pay attention to what this company's doing." It's "in the square, perfect spot of AI, and they have zero competition," Bryn said.

Guest host Frank Holland said the valuation is "huge" and wondered about "DOGE risk." Bryn said it's more like "DOGE reward."

Bryn unfortunately also made a cost-basis reference, stating, "The viewers will know, if they remember, January 2nd or 3rd, I sold over half of my position in the 70s because I bought it at 25." The screen graphic showed a forward P.E. of 213. "Don't look at P.E.," Bryn advised.

Josh Brown said PLTR was one of the most heavily shorted stocks last fall. "I can't believe I don't own it," Josh said. Brian Belski said he bought it last May and "doubled our position before the election."

Translation: Bob’s going to get an extension into 2028

Josh Brown, a regular cheerleader for UBER, on Tuesday's (2/4) Halftime Report called UBER "the most mispriced security on the Nasdaq; I think it's 50% below where it should be trading." Jason Snipe predicted a "rebound" in "gross mobilities" for UBER.

Josh bought BMY for some reason.

Brian Belski said he bought NKE as well as SHAK. "I think Shake Shack is to Gen Z's what Chipotle was to the millennials," Belski said.

Stephanie Link made beaten-down DECK her Final Trade.

Guest host Frank Holland said to Angelica Peebles during a CNBC News Update, "I think the Eagles are gonna also win by a very large margin against the Kansas City Chiefs."

On Closing Bell, which was guest hosted by Sara Eisen in place of Judge, James Stewart told Sara that none of the internal candidates to "succeed" Iger at DIS is seen as having the "perfect set" of skills.

Weiss jokes about trash-talking CNBC, then getting hired by the Trump administration

Judge was probably disappointed he missed it.

Or maybe not.

Early on Monday's (2/3) Halftime Report guest-hosted by Frank Holland, Steve Weiss assessed the big international news of the weekend.

"This is a guy who's never had success negotiating publicly like this, nor privately. He did have 5 companies go belly up. So his negotiating skills just aren't that great ... I'm not gonna be somebody who minces on the political side ... definitely not Kamala Harris fan, definitely not a Republican fan. So this is just looking at it as an investor, as a businessperson. This is chaotic. The first weeks of this administration have been unlike any other because of chaotic. It's also been like (sic meant 'unlike') any other because of the incompetence, not only of the president, but the incompetence of many people he's put in."

Weiss said he was on a conference call with a "large defense company critical to the safety of our country," and "they have no idea," they say some agencies are contracting, and some aren't.

Weiss said "Nobody wants to say anything to offend the president, otherwise you get kicked out of the press room, or he sues you. I'm actually thinking of going to work for the Trump administration. First, I'm going to say something, uh, bad about CNBC. Then I'm gonna work for Trump and sell it for $25 million."

As for tariffs, "You have no idea what to do ... what's it good for. I don't know what tariffs are gonna do. Look at it this way: We've got all these sycophants in his administration saying that, 'No, the consumer's not gonna bear them.'" Weiss explained that GM has 8% margins, and "how can they tolerate 25% margins (sic meant 'tariffs')."

(This review was posted overnight Monday-Tuesday, hours after tariffs on Canada were "paused," which occurred hours after the Halftime Report aired.)

Joe: People’s positions in
NVDA are ‘extended’

Joe Terranova started off Monday's (2/3) Halftime Report stating, "First of all, it's clear, that the announcement and potential implementation of tariffs is part of a negotiating strategy. I think that's very obvious to all of us. I think in other situations, you can expect that tariffs will be implemented, and they will be held in force for an extended period of time."

For investors, Joe said, "I feel like we're in the same place we were last week. ... However, I think you're making a mistake if you make a macro call."

(Note: We can't help the fact that Joe was scowling, for some reason, in the introductory camera shots above. We take what's out there. This one's on Joe.)

Jim Lebenthal said, "We all know there's chaos out there. There's no question about it. You can just look at the back and forth on, on the tariffs. But underneath this, you have a strong economy."

"I think this is very much a stock-picker's market (snicker)," Jim said.

Jim said "today I'm selling On Holdings," adding "it may face tariffs."

Jim said of China, "They're trying to do a PR campaign here to get more foreign direct investment. I don't think they can just easily slap on retaliatory tariffs unless they wanna give up on that campaign."

"I think they should give up on that campaign. It's failed," Steve Weiss said, doubting any "responsible CEO" would move a supply chain there and share IP.

Joe recalled his bad-sale remark about NVDA of a week earlier. "I truly believe that positioning right now in Nvidia is extended. I think people are fully long the name."

Weiss predicted NVDA will "bounce," but "I wouldn't buy more here though."

Weiss predicts UNH makes new high

Sully wasn't the guest host of Monday's (2/3) Halftime (that was Frank Holland), but Sully nevertheless turned up halfway through the program and made a good Beatles joke about tariffs on energy.

Sully also observed, "If we're talking about tariffs, I think we can all agree, that like a bad movie, what matters is how long it lasts." (This review was posted overnight Monday-Tuesday, hours after tariffs on Canada were "paused," which was hours after the Halftime Report aired.)

Ooooohhhhh ... that's an interesting category ... bad movies.

(We shouldn't do this ... but if we had to nominate a "bad movie of the year" for 2024 that is not a totally obscure piece of junk but well-known movie with decent aspirations ... we'd have to offer "Babygirl" ... just. Did. Not. Get. It. ... Oh well ...)

Joe Terranova said that going into the JOET rebalance, it had 0% energy exposure.

Joe said gold is up 7% year to date.

The JOET bought GOOGL.

Steve Weiss made UNH his Final Trade and predicted it "goes past the old highs" (we think that's around 630); he said Jim wanted to make it his Final Trade also.

On Fast Money, guest Jens Nordvig correctly noted, "We get a new headline literally every hour." Grandpa Guy Adami said the market's trading at "excessive valuations." Karen Finerman noted the VIX went to 20 on Monday, and "If we were in an all-out trade war, 20 would not be the number where we were. So I think there was a great deal of skepticism going into the day." For whatever reason, confetti fell on Mel.

The Fast Money crew took up the remarkable run of PLTR. This page will freely admit we missed that one and in fact tired of hearing about it so often on the Halftime Report in 2022-23-24. Those that were constantly talking about it were absolutely right.

Echoes of Rob

Judge decided to devote Friday's (1/31) Halftime Report to NVDA's "no good, very bad week" and said, "You can call it the Deep. Seek. Sink (snicker)."

Jim Lebenthal suggested the AI sector has "jitters."

Judge tried to ask Rob Sechan, who was remote, if "the goal posts have in fact moved this week" and what Rob's doing with NVDA. Rob said he's getting an "echo" of hearing himself talk and asked for Judge to come back later. Judge started to do that, then Rob said, "It's gone! It's gone!" Rob went on to say "we expected this volatility" and he's "underweight" NVDA but is looking for opportunities to buy. Rob bought more TSM.

A few moments later, Steve Weiss joined by phone and said he agreed with Rob on everything, including "his aversion to hearing him talk," one of Weiss' several great lines in January. Weiss bought the "panic selling" in NVDA, TSM and MSFT.

At the 10-minute mark, Judge invited Cramer over to the Post 9 set.

Jenny Harrington said the problem for WHR isn't tariffs, but "because the housing market hasn't recovered."

Rob owns DECK and said it's up 37% since he bought it. (Translation: He still made a good trade despite this ghastly selloff.) He said Friday's move is the result of "lofty expectations."

Jim's Final Trade was somehow "small caps" as a play on the "broadening (snicker) of the rally."

Gorjus CNBC D.C. reporter Megan Cassella owned the afternoon, deftly explaining across Closing Bell, Overtime and Fast Money the day's developments in the Tariff War.

Jim’s absolutely right about trimming stocks

On Thursday's (1/30) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal said he trimmed ORCL and made an awesome statement that this page totally agrees with.

Jim stated, “The weird thing about trimming is the day after you trim, you’re really not sure what you’re hoping for.”

Fantastic point. This page has decided, after years/decades of thinking about this, that after trimming, you probably still want the stock to go up. It's true that if it falls, you can buy back at a lower price the stock you sold. But if you're already still holding some of your original position, it's hard to get excited about buying more as it falls.

Jim said the trimming was “simple risk management.” (Jim also made a reference to himself as "he" (it wasn't that bad, long story) and got flagged by Josh Brown for "talking in the 3rd person again," the same joke Weiss made about Joe T. this week.)

Judge jabbed Jim for trimming NVDA. Jim protested, “It’s up like 3 times in 15 months … I’m amused by the pushback on it.” Jim explained that there’s a possibility that capex “starts to disappoint” in future years.

Judge noted Jim sold GM after a Trump tweet and wondered if Jim is bailing on stocks without knowing “more details.” Jim said “I love your question.” Judge said “I wish you didn’t; I like it better when you don’t.” Jim stated, “I don’t know anything with certainty about the future. Neither does anyone else.”

Kevin Simpson is rotating from FCX into AEM. Kevin wrote a covered call on AMGN at 295 while the stock’s at 283, “so we should be good there.”

Kevin bought TOST and said he’ll probably add to MDB.

Josh said IBM is “in the new sweet spot of the market, which is AI, but from an IT and services perspective.” He also touted IT (the company Gartner, not the generic corporate department) and CTSH and its “16 forward P.E.”

Jim said WYNN is “far more than Macau” but acknowledged that’s how it’s been judged for a couple of years. “I really think it’s just a matter of time” for the stock to move, Jim said.

Josh made the case for SBUX even at 109, including mentioning baristas writing names on cups with sharpies.

Liz Young Thomas had a quiet show.

Jim claims proof that valuation matters (at least sometimes)

Jim Lebenthal opened Thursday's (1/30) Halftime Report opining on the day's big Mag 7 setback.

“This is still Microsoft,” Jim declared, before uncorking this statement: “In the end valuation does matter; it’s just a question of when. It was simply too expensive in the mid-30s.”

Hmmm, OK ... Jim says "valuation does matter; it's just a question of when." So whenever a high-P.E. stock sells off, or a low-P.E. stock goes up, we can say "valuation does matter," even if it doesn't (TSLA, according to numerous panelists on the show) 99% of the other time?

OK.

Kevin Simpson said he’d be “looking to add to” MSFT on the pullback.

Josh Brown said of MSFT, “Forward revenue outlook guidance cuts are almost always negative in the short term; I don’t think I would be playing this stock for a quick bounce,” but long term, it’s “OK.”

Kevin said META is his top Mag 7 pick, and the spend may be a lot but it sounds like it’s “under control.”

Josh praised how "Zuck" ran the META call with a "cold open"; Josh said if you want to lead a Mag 7 company, “You have to be part of the entertainment too.” (At least he didn't say that he just KNEW it was a great buy in November 2022.)

Josh said, “I’m not excited about Apple’s prospects in Q1.”

Judge reported on updates on the HPE-JNPR deal that no one knew or cared about.

Everybody on the Halftime Report was sure that META was an awesome buy in November 2022 when everyone else was selling it

Very early on Wednesday's (1/29) Halftime Report, Kari Firestone brought up one of the show’s most tired refrains: "We are people who liked Meta back in November of 2022 when the world hated it."

Joe Terranova said he feels "confident" about META earnings.

Steve Weiss stated, "We still don't really know what Deepseek is or what it means for anybody."

Weiss again emphasized "I don't have a big position" in NVDA.

Jason Snipe said, "A lot of the news on Microsoft is obviously in the stock, right."

Jason touted NOW, which is "already monetizing their AI tools."

Kari said of Copilot, "It's not as if it's been a raging success."

Kari sparred with Weiss over how competition may or may not affect the software space (Kari defended CRM vs. "some no-name") as AI prices drop.

Joe said AMD is a "ski slope down."

Bill Baruch dialed in to say he bought AAPL, he "pulled the trigger" on Monday when it was positive while "the entire tech space was getting bludgeoned." Bill sold DELL; "it has not come through with price action for us."

Judge said Dan Loeb thinks the SHCO $9 private offer (Zzzzzzzzz) is a "sweetheart deal."

Weiss bought more VRT, calling the risk “way overstated.” He already sold BAH and trimmed LDOS. "It's chaos in Washington," Weiss said, suggesting the secretary of defense "may be one of the last people" anyone would consider to run a big corporate division.

Kari said she has owned BAH for a long time and that Pete Hegseth's background makes him "more likely not to do anything."

Joe said he's "bought the pullback personally" in DDOG, and he's a "little disappointed."

‘Netflix has basically changed the game’

Some people may think NFLX is the greatest thing since sliced bread, but even that kind of praise seems subdued compared with what Mike Ovitz was heaping on the streaming king on Tuesday's (1/28) Halftime Report. (This writer is long NFLX.)

"I think Netflix has basically changed the game," Ovitz said, multiple times actually in one way or another.

He praised Ted Sarandos & Co. for changing how the world binge-watches series, with complete seasons dropped on the same day.

On the other hand, he didn't say anything about NFLX changing the moviegoing experience, or actually watching a film in a theater.

Mike pointed out how, instead of the old ways in which content creators would produce a product, then get paid over time with residuals, nowadays the creators are getting paid up front. He asserted, "I don't think that we're gonna ever see it revert to the way it was." But he cautioned, "It is more expensive than ever to make content."

(That's curious, because it seems to us like streaming/film/TV content is coming out the ears, much of it not particularly great ... but if people want to spend gobs of money creating it, whatever.)

Mike said AI will be "helpful" in Hollywood, however, he said, "I don't see any soul in AI yet" or a means to "attract audiences," but, "What I do see is extraordinarily powerful ability to cut production costs."

Mike began his interview indicating that Judge may be big-timing some buddies. Ovitz told Judge, "you owe me" at least 1, maybe 2, returned phone calls.

Later in the show, Mark Cuban dialed in late to opine on the AI situation; we're not sure exactly what Mark's conclusions are, but he observed that companies aren't going public, at least, there aren't any "up-and-coming public companies."

Jim Lebenthal conceded that "on the fringe ... it got ridiculous." Judge scoffed, "No one ever says it's ridiculous when it's happening. It's after the fact, you're like, 'Oh, well, it was ridiculous.'"

Stephanie Link admitted she's averaging down in SLB, apparently in a big way. "I'm huge in SLB; I just keeping buying that thing every time it goes down. It's now a 6% position for me," Stephanie said.

Judge makes no mention of NFC Championship Game

This page (see below) made an awful prognostication last week about the NFC Championship Game.

Had it occurred to us that the team we were picking might surrender the most points ever scored in an NFL conference championship game, we certainly would've taken a pass.

At least here, that game wasn't emotional. For Judge, it probably was, as Judge has noted from time to time being a Washington football fan.

Hopefully Judge, like this page, has already long since hitched a ride on the Chiefs 3-peat bandwagon.

Judge says Joe got ‘lit up’ on social media for claiming ‘gameification’ of NVDA

The vast majority of Monday's (1/27) Halftime Report was about the NVDA selloff; apparently, the only panelist causing a stir was Joe Terranova.

Joe offered, "It is retail that owns these names" and "probably has utilized a little bit too much leverage in the gameification of Nvidia with these zero-dated options."

Joe advised, if you're long NVDA, "sell something today and hope the sale that you're making is a terrible sale." Judge wondered about selling with the stock already down big halfway through Monday's trading; "it's an act first, ask questions later" market. Joe said it's about "how do you reshape risk."

Later in the show, Judge told Joe, "You are getting lit up on social media, man." Joe said, "I'm trying to speak to people who I know have way too much leverage in this name."

Josh: Part of the NVDA trade was ‘speculators being unwound’

Josh Brown opened Monday's (1/27) Halftime Report saying of NVDA, there's a "component" of the selloff of people "very reasonably" recalculating expectations for AI, "but then I think there's an even bigger component, that's just speculators being unwound. This is the most overowned stock in the market."

Josh suggested Deepseek means "you're more likely to see an acceleration of AI everywhere, all over the economy."

"This is a little bit overdone," Josh said.

Josh said the Deepseek chatter is mostly on X, which is "loaded with hedge fund managers and asset managers who absolutely loathe the Mag 7. They've been waiting for this moment for 2 years."

Bryn Talkington said a lot of the stock market reaction is to the "6 million dollar number."

Steve Weiss reported, "Nvidia's not a large position for me."

Judge said, "It is for some."

Weiss said his isn't a large position because "necessity is the mother of invention (snicker)." Weiss said "if this is the future," then MSFT, GOOGL and META "should be up today," because their projected capex "has just come down meaningfully."

Judge said Dan Ives is calling Monday a "golden buying opportunity" with "minimal" threat.

CNBC's Dee Bosa impressively outlined the AI situation and noted, "This really does open up a new front."

Weiss said the reaction to TSM is "ridiculous," because if anything, it's going to get more orders.

The whole day was pretty much the same. Tom Lee told Judge on Closing Bell, "To me, it's an overreaction," and he'd look at it as an "opportunity." Tom said, "I'd be personally surprised if Nvidia became Betamax in the past week."

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso discussed the AI selloff and said "I made a purchase today ... I think that things got overdone." We think he was referring to NVDA, but maybe it was some other big tech name.

Meanwhile, back on Halftime, Josh Brown bought HD, "anticipating the breakout here."

Joe said homebuilders are "offering way too many incentives," and he'd rather be in HD.

In a bit of a warning about this year's market, Josh claimed that a Bloomberg "consensus" entering 2023 was a "hundred percent chance of a recession." Josh said entering 2025, it'll be "harder and harder" for companies to produce upside surprises.

Judge makes Jayden Daniels his Final Trade — this page agrees; Commanders to the Super Bowl

Judge is a Washington football fan, and there is a huge Washington football game coming up this weekend.

Late on Friday's (1/24) Halftime Report, Brandon Copeland joined the Post 9 set late to talk about the big money in college athletics and did a great job of assessing the situation. Judge pointed out that Carson Beck is getting $4 million to transfer to the University of Miami, while Brock Purdy is "still on his rookie contract; I don't even think he's making a million dollars a year."

On a really big football subject, Judge, who surely remembers taking a really deep breath as Theismann knocked the ball away from Kim Bokamper, asked Brandon for NFL picks this weekend. "I got Jayden Daniels, pullin' it off," Brandon said, also picking the Chiefs, who he said have a "Super Bowl routine."

This page couldn't agree more. We'll take Washington and Kansas City this weekend. Philadelphia is attempting to become what we believe would be the first NFL team since the 1982 Washington and Miami clubs (and that was a special situation) to win 3 home playoff games prior to the Super Bowl. Philadelphia may have the better roster and greater odds of winning, but we think this is Washington's turn.

Steve Grasso: ‘Bitcoin will probably double from here — in short order’

Judge announced at the start of Friday's (1/24) Halftime Report that Tom Lee is saying, "Stocks are goin' up for the right reason (snicker)," and Tom's got a 7,000 S&P target for mid-year, but curiously, only 6,600 by year-end.

Bryn Talkington noted Tom's year-end forecast is "about a 10% move." (So Tom, like all strategists, is simply making the standard yearly stock gain prediction.)

Regardless, Bryn said, "It looks like we're gonna continue to move higher."

Joe Terranova concurred, "The setting is a favorable one."

Jason Snipe said "there's a lot to like" and it's time to be "incrementally more bullish."

Despite all this, Grandpa Judge said the FT has a headline Friday saying "Stocks are most expensive compared to bonds since the dot-com era."

Judge told Bryn "there's been a fair amount of insider selling," and "according to Bloomberg," the insider buy-sell ratio is 0.22. Bryn said there was some of that insider selling at PLTR.

CNBC's graphics crew had the audacity to post purported forward multiples for AAPL (30.35) and MSFT (33.79) and NVDA (36.90) on the screen. If you want to believe them, feel free.

Jim Lebenthal added to ADBE but said he's "saving some dry powder" to possibly add more after earnings.

Joe said for those who don't believe "technicals could guide you towards" a stock, he said TWLO is "a classic example" that "yes it can."

Joe protested to Judge that XBI really has been a disappointment and stated, "The right trade in health care right now is medical devices." Jason touted SYK, stating, "elective surgeries are coming back online."

The day's most provocative comment came on Fast Money, when Steve Grasso stated that government approach to bitcoin has changed from an "enforcement outlook" to "regulatory," and "Bitcoin will probably double from here — in short order."

Judge, Halftime producers enlist an entire team of CNBCers to figure out what Donald Trump meant in his BAC comment

The biggest topic of Judge's fascination on Thursday's (1/23) Halftime Report was Donald Trump's comment to Brian Moynihan at Davos, "I hope you're going to open your banks to conservatives, because what you're doing is wrong."

Josh Brown noted Judge was addressing this subject "gingerly" and indicated such a comment by Donald Trump is "effective" politically in that it "keeps the conversation going," but he thinks it "probably" has no bearing on BAC earnings.

Judge brought in Steve Liesman to opine on what's going to happen with Grateful Dead reunions not only Brian Moynihan but Donald Trump's demand for lower interest rates; Steve didn't seem surprised that Donald Trump may criticize the Fed.

Later in the show, Leslie Picker explained that BAC's dropping of some customers "may not have anything to do with their political ideology" but the businesses they're in.

Late in the show, Eamon Javers offered that the White House is expecting Brian Moynihan to "respond" — that's the term he used, but he really means "suck up" — to what Donald Trump said at Davos. Eamon reprised this report later on Fast Money. The Fast Money crew didn't seem to think that banks care in the slightest whether their customers are conservatives or liberals.

Josh doesn’t think Mag 7 will be up 50% in 2025

Leading off Thursday's (1/23) Halftime Report, Josh Brown advised, "Just be open-minded" about the markets regardless of Donald Trump.

Jenny Harrington pointed to year-to-date averages for S&P, Dow, Nasdaq and Russell and said, "It really is like everyone winning this year."

Josh and Jenny got into an argument over tech companies vs. industrials, as Josh asserted that industrials will never get the kind of gross margins that some tech companies get. Jenny concluded asking Brown, "Do you really think that Mag 7 will be up 50% in 2025." "No," Josh said. "There you go," Jenny said.

(And why would anyone invest in a stock that's NOT going to be up 50% in a year.)

Bill Baruch bought CAT, he said for "China exposure." Bill sold the QQQ. (This writer is long QQQ.)

Bill bought more IBIT and suggested $150,000 bitcoin is possible in a "few months."

Josh talked up HOOD and HD.

Joe advocates a NFLX stop that Weiss doesn’t seem to think is necessary

Wednesday's (1/22) Halftime Report took up the stock of the day: NFLX. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Invoking Pete Najarian-esque terminology, Joe Terranova said NFLX posted an "absolutely phenomenal quarter." Joe said Josh Brown had some "really excellent points" a day earlier on NFLX getting ahead of "churn" with its live sports and bigger spending.

Joe conceded he expressed his own concerns a day earlier about bullish sentiment in NFLX, but he said the big gain Wednesday to a "certain extent alleviates some of that concern."

Steve Weiss pointed out that the stock had sold off to around 830 in the last couple weeks, "a great opportunity to buy." Weiss suggested one of NFLX's strengths, aside from just more content in general, is that "they drop an entire season on 1 day."

Weiss also suggested "Netflix puts out more content than all the other, you know, meaningful streaming services combined."

Joe advised putting a stop at Tuesday's close, 869; "the stock should not go back below yesterday's close. Plain and simple." Joe said violating that number "invalidates" all the good news from the earnings report.

Weiss wondered "what period does it invalidate it," for a few weeks or months, "because the fundamentals are still there, and that's the difference in our trading strategies." Joe said he comes from a "futures background," and he learned "at a very, uh, young age" that you "have to utilize those price stops."

CNBC graphics crew evidently isn’t using AI to spell words

On Wednesday's (1/22) Halftime Report, Judge stumbled over prompter text in his intro, then mentioned Steve Weiss and cracked, "I saw that Weiss was on; I got a little tripped up for a minute." Weiss said, "People get flustered." Judge said, "I was hoping somehow he'd disappear before the welcome."

Joe Terranova admitted early, "You're reaching new highs today with bad breadth (sic he correctly said it with a 'd'). You're reaching new highs with a very narrow set of technology leading the way."

Weiss agreed with Judge's comment that "AI stocks" are where the money is. "That is where the puck is, where it's been and where it's going," Weiss said.

Joe said, "Current P.E. on Vertiv is 98." Weiss said, "Trailing." The screen graphic said it was 45.23 forward. (Believe any of those numbers, if you feel like it.)

Weiss said he didn't feel like he has to "chase the next, uh, shiny object" in the momentum charts; he questioned why he would do that when it would require him to sell, for example, META and "pay taxes on it."

Kevin Simpson joined remotely to say he bought more AAPL, and it sounds like Kevin is averaging down. "On Thursday, we picked up a few shares at 230. Yesterday, we bought a little bit more at 220," Kevin said.

Weiss uncorks one of the best punch lines of the year

On Wednesday's (1/22) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss impressively pounced on a potential funny by Joe Terranova.

Joe said that when RCL went into the JOET, "I said to myself ... cruise ships, how much strength can we actually see," but the revenue growth at RCL is "real."

Moments later, after discussing COST and valuation, Weiss said, "Joe, what did you say to yourself on this one, since you're talking in 3rd person." (Actually it wasn't technically 3rd person, but whatever.)

Weiss bought UBER, first making what sounded like a bear case regarding low restaurant margins and the undocumented drivers in the "labor pool." Then he said he bought it because "I don't expect them to miss another quarter."

Weiss also bought BAH. He said it peaked around 190 in November, "and then when DOGE came out," defense contractors faced pressure, but apparently that's a plus for contractors because at DOGE, "they don't wanna have to deal with unions when they want to get rid of people."

Joe said TRV has "stepped back from California" and isn't really into the high-net-worth homes.

Joe said he's been talking about IBKR "for literally the last 2 years on the show," and, "I don't understand why anyone ... would own any other ... brokerage name."

Weiss said UAL has "done a great job" and admitted his theory that pent-up flight demand post-COVID didn't "peter out" as Weiss anticipated (and proclaimed on the show about every other day in 2020 and 2021).

Weiss bought more UNH.

For his Final Trade, Joe recapped that he recommended APP last Wednesday "for a trade," at 336 with a recommended stop at $300. Joe explained, "You have to raise the stop to the entry price; there is no way that you should lose money on this trade." If you already bought it at 336, why not just sell it right now and then there's REALLY no way you lose money on it?

Grandpa Guy Adami opened Wednesday's (1/22) Fast Money saying "9 of the metrics that we talk about ... are in the 98th to 100th percentile of where they've been historically on the overbought side of things."

Karen says NFLX ‘worth’ the multiple; Guy says to look for $942

On Tuesday's (1/21) Fast Money, Guy Adami said of NFLX, "I don't think you chase it here." (This writer is long NFLX.) (This review was posted overnight Tuesday-Wednesday.)

Dan Nathan agreed that he didn't like the idea of chasing NFLX but suggested, "If inflation becomes an issue again, I think it's probably gonna be hard to continue to raise prices at this level."

Karen Finerman though said, "I actually think if inflation becomes an issue, they can raise prices more easily." Karen asserted that "there's so much to like here," and the stock may be expensive, but it's "worth it."

Tim Seymour actually said with a straight face, "It's gonna come back to, What's the multiple (snicker) you're paying for this company."

Guy said the previous NFLX all-time high was $942, which he thinks it will revisit at some point.

Rich Greenfield called it a "stunning" quarter for NFLX. "And I don't think anyone's gonna be complaining about the price increases," Rich said.

Earlier on Halftime, Joe Terranova said this is "a very interesting report tonight" from NFLX because it'll be the last quarter with subscriber numbers. Joe said NFLX will have to "resolve" the question of "retention" of people who watch the sports events. Judge suggested costs for acquiring sports could soar, but Josh Brown said those events reduce the "churn," and "churn is more expensive."

Josh conceded that "Netflix absolutely is gonna have to pay up" for sports, "but so what — the investment is worth it." Brian Belski called it "an absolute home run stock you need to own." Joe cautioned that sentiment toward NFLX is "very bullish."

Joe claims momentum is among top performing strategies in 2025

For the 2nd time in a week, Joe Terranova was taking a victory lap on his recent call about rates peaking.

Joe noted on Tuesday's (1/21) Halftime Report that just "8 days ago, we were sitting here completely stressed out about the fact that a 10-year was at 4.79."

Joe said that what the market seemed to like on Tuesday is what it views as a "deliberate approach" to implementing "tariffs with China."

Joe asserted, "Momentum is one of the best-performing strategies, if not the best, so far year to date, it's up 6%."

Eventually, Joe basically admitted that being long Mag 7 will be a good strategy, at least under certain economic situations, although he gave it enough qualifiers when he should just be saying it'll be another Mag 7 year. Joe said, "Don't get too excited about not owning the Mag 7," because if there's "friction" with inflation and yields rise, "You're gonna want to own those Mag 7."

Joe said he took a personal position in TER with a "tight stop" at 125, "and I said, 'Take a very small position.'" Judge noted how it was cut to underweight by Morgan Stanley.

Josh: 2 weeks left of Trump Trade talk

Josh Brown on Tuesday's (1/21) Halftime Report stated, "We're probably a week or 2 away from the Trump Trade talk subsiding and people getting back to focusing on fundamentals."

Judge said Mary Erdoes said at Davos that banks are in the "beginning of 'go mode.'"

Judge relayed Stan Druckenmiller's comments to Becky Quick a day earlier about the impact of Donald Trump's policies. Judge said Stan says he's a "believer in animal spirits" and that CEOs Stan talks to are "somewhere between relieved and giddy."

Brian Belski said of inflation, "Whether or not we get to 2% I think is almost a moot point ... people are too focused on that 2%."

‘The Trump Trade is back on’

Kevin Simpson at the beginning of Friday's (1/17) Halftime Report observed that "if yields come down, stocks go up," but the only question about the 5% 10-year is when will it happen.

Brenda Vingiello said the market rally needs "earnings to definitely come through."

Steve Weiss said Scott Bessent's testimony on Thursday (which preempted Thursday's Halftime Report) "was pretty good" and "very strong" and we should have "confidence" in him. Weiss said Bessent said he'll be "apolitical" and is "very focused on the deficit" (snicker) (yeah sure, Scott Bessent is going to rein in the deficit).

"It appears today, the Trump Trade is back on," Weiss said, singling out bitcoin.

"I would ignore these money market flows," said Bryn Talkington, adding it's "just a small crumb of data."

Weiss: Buy S&P or Nasdaq instead of AAPL

Kevin Simpson on Friday's (1/17) Halftime Report said, "Everyone freaks out when we sell Apple," even though he's sold it 10 times in 13 years.

Brenda Vingiello said that relative to the Mag 7, AAPL revenue growth seems "limited," and reax to its AI product is "mixed."

Steve Weiss said, "You might as well own just the S&P index or the Nasdaq index instead of owning AAPL because you get the same performance without worrying about the volatility when they report earnings."

Brenda sold AMD, saying AVGO seems like the bigger winner. Brenda cut half of her ADBE position; management's guidance was a "disappointment." Brenda added to WYNN, but SNOW was a new addition.

Guest host Frank Holland questioned, "Why Wynn right now." Brenda's rationale seemed less than convincing; she said she expects Macau's recovery to continue, and there's a new property due in the UAE in 2027.

Kevin said he wrote a covered call on UNH on Tuesday expiring 3 days later on Friday at 545, it brought in $10.80, "a 1,500% annualized premium."

Bryn Talkington suggested selling NVDA May 160 calls for $7.45.

Kevin bought TPL at $900; he trimmed after it ran to $1,600 but bought more in the "$1,300 range."

Weiss admitted he actually bought SLB. "I think the service companies are the way to go," Weiss said. Like nearly all of his positions, "it's a starter position."

Weiss said NFLX is going after "non-U.S.-speaking (sic) (snicker) countries," a slight twist to his regularly bullish NFLX outlook. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Kevin Simpson said he bought HOOD "last Friday at $40." He sees "a lot more potential" for this stock. Kevin said HOOD is getting "into the right businesses, not sports betting."

Weiss said of crypto, "The animal spirits here are alive and well; the momentum will continue," or basically what he's been saying since last autumn.

Grasso has ‘outsized bet’ in bitcoin

On Friday's (1/17) Fast Money, Karen Finerman said that "at the end of 2024, the U.S. had $489 billion worth of gold. Um, and what was it, 20, 10 billion dollars of bitcoin ... 20? ... There's a lot of room between here and there."

Steve Grasso said "you're only going to have a maximum of 21 million bitcoin ... I have an outsized bet in bitcoin; I think it goes much higher."

Steve said that when he watches streaming, he always starts with NFLX (this writer is long NFLX) and maybe he'll "wind up" watching Paramount and Hulu, only if there's some reason for him to go there. Steve said much is expected of NVDA, and "nothing" is built in to the price of INTC. Steve also contended that Donald Trump "ties himself" to the stock market and bitcoin; "he's not going to let either one fail." Grasso also maintained, as he has previously, that Donald Trump will not let X fail. (This writer is long X.)

CNBC’s Fast Money
live event is sold out

If you were waiting to buy a ticket, you waited too long.

Halfway through Wednesday's (1/15) Fast Money, Melissa Lee brought up the show's Feb. 27 "live event" at the Nasdaq in which guests will enjoy cocktail hour with the panelists and receive a commemorative gift. Missy revealed, "Thanks to overwhelming response from our loyal fans, we sold out in record time! All the tickets are gone, in less than 48 hours. But if you missed out, don't worry, you can join the waiting list ... we might have future events as well."

Weiss declares ‘Valuation really is an arbitrary number’

Taking a victory lap of sorts, Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (1/15) Halftime Report told this story:

"I got a phone call Monday afternoon after the show, from a hedge fund manager whose name I will leave out of this conversation," but the caller noted Joe saying on CNBC that yields are near a peak (see below), and the caller wondered how Joe would feel Wednesday when "CPI comes out and the 10-year is approaching 5 and a quarter."

Joe said the CPI data actually "shakes some of the excessive short positioning in the Treasury market."

Grandpa Weiss, who should just buy the Mag 7 and call it a year but can't figure out whether he's "super bearish" or not bearish at all (he claimed with a straight face "I'm not bearish"), said if the job numbers continue at present pace, "you will see inflation return."

Weiss claimed that Joe was "very immodestly claiming victory and slapping down an unnamed fund manager."

"I think we're out of the woods for now," Grandpa added, but it's "too early to declare that we will see a cut in March." Judge asserted that the market had already "kinda been declaring" that there won't be cuts for the "foreseeable future."

Joe said the Nasdaq is "one place you could look." (Translation: Buy the Mag 7.)

Liz Young Thomas said we "can't declare victory" over inflation, but core CPI was "definitely some sweet relief."

In yet another correct jab on the show at P.E. ratio investing strategies (snicker), but not by someone who regularly jabs it, Weiss actually claimed, "Valuation really is an arbitrary (sic, he didn't really mean the number is 'arbitrary,' but that the judgments as to whether it's high or low are 'arbitrary') number, right. It's based upon historical, uh, you know, experience in terms of where these stocks are trading, where the market was trading. That's pretty much been thrown out the window as ETFs have taken control of the equity markets."

Jenny complains that stocks didn’t go down far enough

Jenny Harrington on Wednesday's (1/15) Halftime Report questioned if the new administration/Congress gets off to a bumpier start than what Jenny thinks the market expects; Jenny said the market is "anticipating a best-case scenario."

Liz Young Thomas said, "I think we already unpriced a lot of it though." Jenny complained that the market's only down 3%.

Jenny actually mentioned "our insane budget deficit," as though anything will be done about it.

Grandpa Weiss actually bought NFLX after he "sold some a few- a couple of weeks ago" because of "risk management," but the stock has "corrected," but it's not even a "definitional (snicker) correction." (This writer is long NFLX.)

Weiss touted pricing power and sports and noted how many popular Netflix programs are in foreign languages, there's "fertile ground" for international growth.

Those are fine points, but Kevin Simpson really said it best about a week ago (see below): Netflix has all kinds of levers to pull with advertising, and they're charging people less than they'd actually pay for the service.

Weiss has 1 great line

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (1/15) Halftime Report stated that nat gas is going to be the "solution" to meet growing power demands.

Steve Weiss said the investment concern is whether there's "too much natural gas in this country." Joe said he "really" doesn't think so.

Weiss demanded of Joe, in what was his best question/statement/punch line of the year, "Tell me all the supercycles that were predicted that actually came to fruition. Give me even 1."

Not answering the question, Joe said, "OK. Can we just have a little mini-cycle."

Meanwhile, Weiss said if UNH trades down "significantly," he'd use it as a "buying opportunity," but he only has a "small position."

Jim Lebenthal joined remotely to take a victory lap on C (Zzzzzzzzzz). "It's now at 85% of tangible book value ... I see no reason that doesn't go to 100% ... and I mean, soon."

Later on Fast Money, panelists agreed with Jim. "There really was a lot to like," gushed Karen Finerman about Wednesday's bank reports. Tim Seymour said "the bank messaging was fantastic."

Whew — a day without Weiss expressing all kinds of ‘super bearish’ points and then claiming he’s not super bearish

Jim Lebenthal on Tuesday's (1/14) Halftime Report kinda indicated he'd prefer, despite Lourenco's statements this week, that his favorite $10 stock CLF simply stay away from X.

Jim said that as an investor in CLF, he "would like to get U.S. steel behind us." Jim said that buying "pieces" of X will "bring balance-sheet stress" to CLF.

Still, Jim predicted, "from here to year-end, you're gonna see positive returns on the stock." Of course. When has Jim ever not predicted positive returns for CLF.

Stephanie Link explained why she bought UNH, which Jim and Jason Snipe also own. Judge noted the tragedy in New York last year and the reaction to it but said it seems to him like those on the show who have bought the stock are under the impression "this too shall pass."

Jim argued that the system can't stick it to health insurers; "They need these companies to administer Medicare." Jason said Medicare reimbursement news a day earlier was "huge."

Jim noted the frenzy over Jeremy Siegel Day the calls for "emergency rate cut!!!!" 6 months ago.

Jim bought AZN and said it got a "knockdown" from China news last year.

Judge said it's "interesting" (snicker) that Jim trimmed AAPL when it's down about 10%. Jim said he's picking spots within the Mag 7 that he wants to "accentuate" (snicker). Jason said "they don't trade as a monolith" in the Mag 7. Jim said AAPL is a "core (snicker) member" of the Mag 7.

Stephanie said, "I made a lot of money in D.R. Horton last year and even in Home Depot."

Josh Brown presented an interesting chart comparing the 10-year yield with RKT.

On Fast Money, during a TikTok discussion, Steve Grasso said of SNAP, "if anyone needs a ban on TikTok," it's SNAP.

Anastasia stuns in white

The early portion of Monday's (1/13) Halftime Report turned into a go-round on 1) why stocks are slumping and 2) how long it lasts.

Judge opened the show about a "Bloomberg story that I saw today" about Goldman seeing a "big change in equity positioning from institutional investors."

Josh Brown said, "We literally told you this was going to happen. 2 weeks ago, and 3 weeks ago, on this show. ... There's a massive wealth management-driven move happening here that is 100% related to private clients telling their advisor, 'Don't you dare drop a tax bill on me in the last 2 weeks of this year. We're taking our massive Nasdaq gains next year at the earliest."

We're sure that's at least part of it. It does get into some of the weirdness involving taxes that this page has tried to address (but all of that is for another time).

Josh added, "It's tax. Listen to me now. I know this. It's tax."

Judge offered, "It may be that," but "it's also the change in- in interest rate."

Anastasia Amoroso, who buckled knees in white, said the January market "might be a struggle ... between the positives and negatives." Anastasia also cited "increasing odds of rate hikes," which she said are up to 35%.

Grandpa Steve Weiss said we have to look at the "symptoms and the causes of this," which is that bonds are "spiking because tariffs are reality."

Weiss then said he actually ties tariffs to national security. "I agree with taliff- tariffs, because I do think it's a matter of national security, and I do believe ultimately it will create jobs and increase the onshoring activity we see. But in the interim, it's like any other thing that's good for ya, right. If you wanna lose the weight, you've gotta put in the effort, you gotta put in the pain. And that's what we're goin' to see."

Josh asserted that tech-gain money is going to names such as HUM, VLO, CVS, "where everyone had losses last year."

In a bit of hyperbole, Joe Terranova claimed "The environment that we're in right now is the choppiest, one of the poorest environments to be transact- transacting in that we have seen since probably 2022. I agree that this is a short-term phenomenon." But that doesn't mean Joe's "running in" to "transact" (snicker).

Joe said the Dec. 18 Fed meeting is when all the momentum "broke."

Judge claimed if you took out UNH and AMGN, we "probably have a negative Dow."

Josh suggested the tax selling will be done by Jan. 15; Judge actually said that if Brown's right, "this is a great buying opportunity." Anastasia (did we mention that Anastasia has probably already won Halftime Report Outfit of the Year?) agreed that "this is shaping up to be a buying opportunity."

Weiss insisted, "Inflation's the problem."

That prompted Judge to wonder, "I don't know, man. I can't figure where you at. Are you super-bearish now?"

Weiss protested, "No I'm not. I don't know. I'm not willing to say that this is a buying opportunity just yet."

Joe said, "I truly believe we are near the top in Treasury yields."

Try to land a ticket for Fast Money’s Feb. 27 live event

Steve Weiss on Monday's (1/13) Halftime Report revealed that he trimmed IBIT; "it was an uncomfortably large speculative position, so I cut it back ... 10% maybe. Not a, not a big deal. Uh, actually I'd say a little higher than that."

Rob Sechan is a Pittsburgh Steelers fan; Rob said nothing about weekend football but said his shop bought AMZN, "we thought it was a good time to get engaged in (snicker) Amazon." Rob also bought NRG and QCOM.

Josh Brown said it looks like there could be a resurgence of "Merger Monday."

Josh said not to make anything more out of him getting stopped out of SQ.

Josh talked up BKR, EQT, KMI and LNG as among the "best stocks in the market." Maybe. We'll see how long that lasts.

Josh also said airline names DAL and UAL "should have your attention."

Josh said "the news is great" for SHAK long-term investors, but there's a "little bit of profit-taking ... little bit of sell the news." Josh even mentioned "the analog" of CMG and said SHAK "has the potential, um, to get to that type of a company."

Weiss' Final Trade was LDOS, saying the worst of DOGE is behind it.

On Monday's Fast Money, the panel discussed the developments in X, a stock/deal that gets mentioned on Fast Money far more than on Halftime. (This writer is long X.) Tim Seymour suggested the bid will be "above 40." Karen Finerman pointed out, "There's still a deal in place" that both parties want to pursue. "For a couple of months, I think there's still no clarity here." Guy Adami said "the timing is interesting" and that "somebody got a phone call" and was told to "figure it out" because "the optics around this are bad." Guy asserted, "It's not gonna be a straight line to 40," there will be a day when it's "back to 32."

Mel said you can try to get one of the 100 tickets available for Fast Money's live event on Feb. 27, it includes being able to join the crew for a cocktail hour, watch the show at the Nasdaq set, take part in a Q&A, receive a commemorative item and get "6-month subscription to CNBC Pro." Tim Seymour predicted the ticket prices will "triple" on Stubhub. (If we got a ticket, we'd demand Sully be there.)

Contessa Brewer described the L.A. devastation as "apocalyptic."

It’s a 3-peat: For the
Chiefs, and the Mag 7

Up until a few years ago, this page every January put together the toughest sports prediction challenge on the internet: Predicting the entire NFL playoffs before the first-round games.

Keep in mind that it's not like an NCAA basketball bracket — because of NFL seeding, it's impossible to know for sure who will play who in Week 2 until after the Week 1 games are over.

We had to give up that project a couple years ago when the NFL added a 7th playoff team in each conference, and guessing what the divisional-round matchups were going to be became impossible.

But we haven't given up at all on the Kansas City Chiefs, who seem like the no-brainer Super Bowl pick for this season. (Barring key injury.)

Skeptics point to all the close games this year. They weren't really that close. Honestly, we've been surprised at how the Chiefs' suspect offensive line has not only survived, but thrived, shutting out the Pittsburgh Steelers' pass rush on Christmas Day.

There's an obvious gap between the Chiefs and all other NFL teams.

The rest of the AFC field is filled with regular playoff losers. The Chargers are getting closer but aren't there yet. No way any of these teams goes into Arrowhead and wins a playoff game. Then we get to the Super Bowl. None of these NFC defenses is going to stop the 4th-quarter Chiefs offense. In fact, after two very close Super Bowl wins, we figure the Chiefs are due for a Super Bowl blowout.

Honestly, the stock market seems just as much a no-brainer. Maybe if the Federal Reserve starts redoing 75-point interest rate hikes, you'll want value stocks instead. That's not a bet this page is going to make. There are the Chiefs and the other 31; there are the Mag 7 and the other 493.

‘What small caps need is a recession’

Friday might've been a down day for stocks. But it was an up day for the Halftime Report.

Judge and his panel put together a crisp, great show with lots of provocative commentary about the market.

Josh Brown opened the show saying he's learned that "Every time the market sells off because the economy is too good, it's a buying opportunity."

"I'm not convinced that inflation is back," offered Jim Lebenthal, pointing to numbers at the start of last year. Jim said it's "healthy that expectations are being reset right now," however, "We may be in the middle innings of a correction."

Joe Terranova started to make a statistical point, "You go back to the 1980s (Zzzzzzzzzz)," but he followed it with a strong declaration: "What small caps need is a recession. Because small caps work coming out of a recession."

Moments later, Jim conceded "that's historically true," but "the last 3 years, we've seen a lot of historical patterns broken."

Jim said everyone's been saying we're "late cycle," but Jim thinks we're actually "mid- to early cycle." Josh said that instead of traditional classical economic cycles, we now have "events," and "for the last 15 years, we've only been in recession for 2 months," an interesting point that nobody ever talks about.

Joe claimed that if "you go underneath the surface" of the market, "you're beginning to see that the rotation (snicker) is actually happening, energy, health care, some of the defensive- defensive-oriented sectors that sat out 2024." (We're not so sure about that.)

Bill Baruch said the market's having a "slip" that will be a "buying opportunity."

Judge kept asking panelists about some big drops in previously high-flying tech stocks. Joe said a lot of the stocks they're talking about "kinda went parabolic" after the election, so "it's reasonable to see them fall back to where they were prior to the election."

Jim impressively explains what’s happened to the airline trade since the pandemic

Friday's (1/10) stock market was pretty bad.

But not for 1 stock — DAL, which prompted conversation on the Halftime Report.

Jim Lebenthal was as gung-ho on this stock as any in recent memory, saying "all things are going right," and he predicted it could go to a "10 multiple or higher." (Why Jim is trying to predict a multiple rather than share price, we don't know.)

Jim claimed Ed Bastian is "low-balling" guidance. Judge said "low-balling???? He- he said that this year is gonna be their best year ever."

Jim admitted "it looks that way," but "things can get out of control," which apparently means that Jim thinks the Street may not be taking Ed's comment too seriously.

Jim pointed out something that hasn't gotten enough attention — that in 2020 and 2021, some Halftime panelists (um, that would be Steve Weiss) constantly scoffed at airlines being "underwater" and 1) would never pay off the bailout and 2) would never have much business travel because everything was going to Zoom.

Jim said, "In the heart of the pandemic, everybody said, these things were dead, business travel is never coming back, we're doing Zoom. They figured it out. Kudos to them."

Well said.

Bill suggests all the bearishness for AMD is already priced in

Judge on Friday's (1/10) Halftime Report mentioned the AMD downgrade from Goldman, "the 2nd downgrade this week."

Joe Terranova noted AMD "peaked in early March of last year" and chuckled that he'd be happy if it merely stayed "range-bound." Josh Brown said it's a "dangerous name" given the competition.

But Bill Baruch wondered, "How much more bearish can AMD get at this point? ... At this point, I mean, you can only have some surprise upside news."

Josh noted it's "an AI stock that went down in 2024. That's like a, a Dave Matthews fan who doesn't get up when they play 'Ants Marching.'"

Joe claimed, despite what Bill said, the Street is "still in love" with AMD. Bill countered that last year, "being the only loser in tech, I mean how much, how much more tax-loss harvesting could it- could it withstand. ... Wait 30 days, let's see how this thing looks come middle of February." Bill added that we "may see some rotation" from NVDA to AMD.

Bill looking to add to IBIT

On Friday's (1/10) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal admitted the WYNN share price "sucks," but the "operational results are there to keep me in the name."

Bill Baruch said he owns IBIT and is actually "looking to add to that." Josh Brown pointed out how bitcoin holdings have become part of the everyday market, which has good and bad ramifications.

Jim's Final Trade was C (Zzzzzzzzzzzz). We wuz hoping traders had left that one in the rear-view mirror. Guess not.

On Fast Money, Contessa Brewer reported on the dire insurance/homeowner situation in Los Angeles. Contessa said insurers may be liable for some policies for which they haven't yet been paid premiums. Contessa also said homeowners who have a $4 million policy may find it will cost $5-$6 million to replace their home and thus they're "way underinsured."

Fast Money treat — Dylan visits Nasdaq set (and Susan Krakower, Mary Duffy, John Melloy are mentioned in 59th minute)

Honestly, we were sort of wondering throughout Wednesday's (1/8) Fast Money why the show was trumpeting its 18th anniversary particularly since the show actually has numerous "anniversaries" from when it started as a segment, then a bigger segment, then a prime time show, then a business day show, etc...., as though there was something significant about that number.

But in the final moments, we got our answer — original Fast Money host Dylan Ratigan was on hand to celebrate the permanence of the program.

Dylan, who attended Union College in Schenectady (that wasn't mentioned Wednesday), is the Tastylive/Tastytrade global editor, we learned. He also said he moved to Milan (in Italy, not Illinois) in 2018.

Guy Adami, who wore a jacket ("which I never, ever do"), said so many gracious things about Ratigan and Melissa Lee, you'll have to visit our home page to see them all.

Recalling the era of the show's early days, Karen Finerman said, "the precipice of financial disaster was just so enormous, right ... the rise of tech, the power, and how much money they make, it's extraordinary."

Meanwhile, Lawrence Golub, a special guest for the Fast Money 18th anniversary show who happens to be Mr. Karen Finerman, reported that consumer spending "looks pretty strong." Lawrence added, "We're expecting inflation in the 3's."

Karen observed of the Pacific Palisades, "If they can't get insurance, right, the property values have to go down, a lot."

Back to the anniversary ... it was somewhat of a major omission that Susan Krakower — by this official account, the actual creator of Mad Money and Fast Money — was going to go unmentioned, until Karen Finerman said to Melissa during Karen's Final Trade, "I just wanted to thank- it's been a privilege to be part of this, you, and Dylan, and thank you to Susan Krawkower and Mary Duffy and John Melloy for finding me and allowing me to do this"

The fact that Fast Money and Mad Money remain entrenched among CNBC's limited breadwinners strongly indicates Krakower made a prodigious imprint on the channel's success.

As a nice touch, some of the historical photos on Wednesday's program showed Pete Najarian. (Would've been an even nicer touch to invite the Najarii back for this event, but whatever.) (No sign either of Eric Bolling, Jeff Macke or Tim Strazzini.)

Wednesday, it was great to see Dylan Ratigan, who seems to be doing great. Dylan was not perfect. He was/is a sensational host, and his departure was a loss for CNBC.

Joe tries to claim a ‘box check’ for his botched NVDA call

Jason Snipe on Wednesday's (1/8) Halftime Report said the lack of NVDA details this week about "what is the here and now" was "somewhat of a letdown."

Jason concluded "CES was a little bit of a downer."

Jason noted "the last 6 months have been relatively flat for Nvidia."

Then Joe Terranova recapped his NVDA prediction from Monday (see below).

"I said the other day, uh, that I believed that the keynote address would lead to a new all-time high. Check the box. Got the new all-time high. That's not me patting myself on the back," Joe stated.

And as this page alone in the internet pointed out, Joe actually predicted Monday that the stock would "power" higher ... he did not say that "Oh the stock already is only pennies from the new 52-week high it's gonna hit and then reverse."

Anyway, Judge cut in Wednesday that last year, the stock climbed after CES, while this year, it did go up into the event, but "it didn't stay there."

Joe admitted, "It's very rare to see a stock trade to an all-time intraday high and then close challenging the 50-day moving average. You can't ignore that. That- that has significance."

Joe then offered an explanation for NVDA's dive, saying we have to "acknowledge" that NVDA has been "gameified." Joe said if you're a buyer around 150, you have to note "the momentum in the near term is down."

Finally, Joe stated, "Let's just acknowledge (as this page already did, a day earlier), that what I expected to happen did not happen, and now the momentum's rolled over. ... It will make a new all-time high at some point in the future."

Judge said AMD got a double downgrade from HSBC based on a less-than-impressive AI outlook. Steve Weiss claimed, "I never thought AMD would be competitive," then gave a speech about how he's never had a "core position" of NVDA and has grappled with how best to invest in this space.

Joe said "it certainly doesn't look good" for AMD's momentum and its place in the JOET. Weiss said it was "so asinine" and "made no sense" for AMD to trade for a year at a higher valuation than NVDA. Weiss said the AVGO bull case is "also overstated."

Weiss tries to argue with basically everybody

Boy did this get old fast.

Grandpa Steve Weiss, evidently irritated by Donald Trump's Greenland and Panama comments, decided to fight with basically everyone besides Donald Trump on Wednesday's (1/8) Halftime Report.

Basically, someone could've told him that the Kansas City Chiefs won last year's Super Bowl, and Weiss probably would've been screaming, "NO!!!!! TEPPER DID!!!!!!!!"

Anyway, late in the show, CNBC's Seema Mody reported on PLTR's slide and mentioned other software stocks.

Joe Terranova again advised waiting for PLTR; look for it in the upper 50s/low 60s. Joe said ... and this would prove a controversial comment ... "Valuations are rich if you continue to see yields move higher."

Judge noted high P.E. ratios of numerous software stocks. Joe said "Twilio looks great" and said ZM is "cheap" on valuation but was less enthusiastic on other names. Jason Snipe trimmed NOW and said the company's doing well but the 67 forward multiple is a bit of a concern.

Finally given a chance, Weiss bluntly stated that the valuations are "ridiculous" and that "if Joe thinks these are reasonable valuations, his wife must have a closet full of Birkin bags."

Joe protested, "Did I say I think they are reasonable valuations? I said Zoom is reasonable."

Weiss claimed, "What you said was, I'm paraphrasing, granted, you said, 'But is 5 reasonable. At 5% then I'd start to worry,' meaning that you're OK now," which isn't what Joe said.

"No, I said- No! I said as yields move towards 5%, these are gonna be challenged," Joe said. Weiss demanded a "ruling" from Judge.

Judge told Joe, "You, you said that these valuations were high because of where you- you know, with yields at this level."

Joe insisted, "The current price is a reflection, and the pullback in these stocks is a reflection, in (sic not 'of') the rise in yields." Joe said 3 months ago, valuations were "anchored."

Earlier in the show, Weiss insisted to Judge that "part" of deregulation is already in the market. Judge said extending the tax cuts is "not necessarily in the market." Weiss said "of course it's in the market."

Shannon Saccocia though cut in to say "I think the impact of deregulation is being underappreciated" and predicted an "M&A drive." Weiss argued that "funding in the private markets is still ridiculously tough." Judge said, "You runnin' for the hills ... you sound so negative." Weiss admitted, "I am biased towards negative, absolutely."

Judge says the difference with Donald Trump this time is ‘he’s not running for reelection’

Opening Wednesday's (1/8) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova stated, "The equity to bond correlation has turned negative," and we're being "held hostage" by Treasury yields.

Joe said there's "momentum as it relates to the Treasury market" and it's pointing to "higher yields."

Grandpa Steve Weiss said rising yields are "definitely" a "real problem" because they're providing an alternative to stocks and a "safety trade" if the U.S. tries to seize Greenland and the Panama Canal, which Weiss said creates "nervousness" and "instability."

Then Weiss basically said what matters is "inflation, inflation, inflation."

Jason Snipe said the "pace of rates" is "significant."

Judge said Weiss was "bailing" on the India trade "in numerous ways." Weiss claims he "made money" but not as much as he expected; he still sees supply chains moving from China to India, but he also sees "more onshoring."

Weiss questioned no one in particular, "Is it really pro-business if you get a cowardly move by Mark Zuckerberg on Meta to say, OK, anything goes now, and then, what do you- what are the advertisers gonna think?"

Joe said yields are an issue outside of the U.S. too. Joe said the "consensus" for 2025 has been "choppy 1st half, better 2nd half." Weiss scoffed, "That's always the consensus in the U.S. ... They can't say it's gonna be a bad '25. It's gonna be a worse '26."

Joe said he thinks "choppy" and offered, "I also think the president-elect cares what happens in the stock market ... the minute the stock market declines, he's gonna go 'Whoa,' he's gonna call his economic team and say, 'Hey, put somethin' out there to comfort the markets.'"

Grandpa Judge said, "I would only say that the difference this time is, he's not running for reelection, I think he cares more about what he cares about getting done (snicker) than necessarily how the stock market, tick by tick, reacts to what he does."

Weiss said "choppy" is the "best case."

Weiss actually correctly calls out b.s. about Nelson’s label

Judge in the 22nd minute of Wednesday's (1/8) Halftime Report announced "an exclusive uh that we've just, uh, got our hands on," which was Trian sending an "open letter" to SOLV shareholders.

Steve Weiss suggested companies have gotten more "emboldened" in telling off activists, and Peltz doesn't own enough to "influence the board," so "I don't expect much to happen there."

Judge said Nelson Peltz will argue he's "more than an activist, but a constructivist (snicker)."

"And that's b.s.," Weiss blurted. "If you're truly being constructive, you do it behind closed doors," Weiss added.

Weiss said that Weiss can call himself a 6-5, NBA player. Judge said not only has he seen Weiss' height, "I don't even need to see your basketball skills to know that's b.s."

"My skills are good," Weiss insisted, maybe his only funny line of the day. Weiss said SOLV "deserves to be cheap."

Weiss and Judge then haggled over how long Peltz stays in stocks. Weiss suggested Peltz will bolt early; Judge would be "shocked" if that happens here, "he's a pretty long-term holder" of stocks he's gotten involved in," Judge said, but Weiss said Peltz exited DIS once he got "relief."

Meanwhile, Joe Terranova bought TER, saying it's "finally gaining traction in terms of AI-facing exposure" and is "breaking out technically," but Joe suggested a "tight stop."

Judge said Cowen downgraded LDOS. Weiss said companies in that space are "in the crosshairs of DOGE."

Regarding Goldman's double upgrade of TRV, Joe said catastrophic losses for insurers have been "significant" for a few quarters, but the margins are resilient.

Joe said for CEG, Calpine would be a "good deal."

Steve Grasso: ‘Both Biden and Trump’ got the X decision right

Tuesday's (1/7) Fast Money included a spirited debate on the fast-moving developments in the X-Nippon Steel/CLF situation. (This writer is long X.)

Tim Seymour said of the blocking of the deal, "I don't really understand this," as it's "not 1950 in this country, where they made half the world's steel."

Steve Grasso reiterated a point he has made a few times recently: "I think you'll see a bailout," apparently of X, and that Donald Trump is "gonna figure out how to get 'em a billion dollars," either through "tax incentives" or "tariffs"; or "any way necessary."

Steve added, "I do see why it's a critical industry. And yes, Japan is a major ally, but they weren't always a major ally. ... It's about unions, it's- it's about a whole bunch of other things ... I'm a believer that both of them, both Biden and Trump, got this one right."

Melissa Lee, after airing statements from David Burritt and Lourenco Goncalves, said the commentary was "really outspoken"; then Tim and Mel agreed "he should be," and whether they were referring to Burritt or Lourenco wasn't at all clear and was a production lapse.

Tim and Mel made clear they don't see the argument for blocking the deal; they protested that Nippon Steel made promises about not laying anyone off. Tim insisted, "This isn't about unions." Steve said, "I think it's about foreign ownership." Karen Finerman said, "I think the reverberations could be much greater than just this 1 deal ... with an ally ... they're not welcome."

Steve said, "I also have a problem with China buying farmland next to military industries."

Mel said, "China buying farmland is far different than Nippon Steel investing in U.S. Steel."

Steve said, "I don't think it's that much different."

Mel said, "China is not an ally. Japan is an ally."

"Whether it's an ally or an enemy, why would we want to pull- put another country in charge of our steel industry," Steve asked. "It just doesn't make sense to me."

"We can't make everything ourselves, right," Karen said.

"We can make steel ourselves," Steve said.

"But they can help us, right," Karen said.

"I just don't want them owning it," Steve said.

Tim said Keystone Pipeline opposition "made no sense to me."

At the end of the show, Mel declared Mike Khouw the winner of the show's 2024 Acronym Challenge. These acronyms were talked about during the year but were more of an inside-joke thing than something we wanted to chronicle. Basically Mike picked bitcoin as part of BRAVE. Karen Finerman got 4th place basically only because of picking META in HELM, and Steve Grasso got 2nd, mostly for GOOGL and ethereum.

Despite Joe’s prediction, Jensen’s speech doesn’t ‘power’ NVDA higher

A year ago, Joe Terranova got red hot in January with a couple of Mag 7/broader market calls.

This year, it seems like he's already 0-for-1, and we haven't even had a full week of trading.

On Monday (1/6), Joe opened the show saying of NVDA, "It's gonna continue to go higher. It's gonna take out the all-time high at 152.89. ... I expect nothing short of a very optimistic, uh, address this evening from Jensen Huang, I think that will power the stock higher."

On Tuesday (1/7), the stock did indeed take out 152.89 — barely, by reaching 153.13 early. It quickly slid and finished the day down $9.

It's not in Marc Chaikin Land yet. It could always bounce back soon and "power" ahead as Joe indicated. So far, Joe's call seems a miss. For a day, at least, it seems the correct call was to sell the rumor as NVDA traded up at 152.16 Monday. If it's back over 150 this week, Joe could still have an early victory. Within a short period of time, we'll know whether Joe's forecast was accurate ... or a short-term top.

Josh says dividend-stock performance generally trails the S&P 500, says buybacks are a ‘better deal’

Rarely does the Halftime Report delve into any science (if that's the correct word) regarding stock investing (probably because some of that science utterly deflates the sentiments of several on the Investment Committee), but Tuesday's (1/7) Halftime Report produced an interesting conversation about dividend investing, courtesy of Josh Brown.

Josh stated, "You find a lot of people who got back into the market after the Great Financial Crisis, or sometime thereafter, but they allocated so heavily to the dividend factor, that they really missed out on a lot of what else drives market performance."

Brown insisted, "I am pro-dividend," but "54% of the time, it trails the performance of the S&P 500 over all 12-month rolling periods going back 30 years."

Josh explained how the 36% of retained earnings going out in dividends has been "pretty constant," but buyback spending has gone from "17% to 71% of all corporate cash," because "it's a better deal for stockholders."

Brown pointed out that demanding a dividend means missing out on stocks such as BRK-B, AMZN, NVDA.

Brian Belski said (basically) he thinks Josh is the greatest thing since sliced bread, but, "I completely disagree with you," stating that with dividends, "you can't look at dividend yield; you have to look at dividend growth."

Josh said, "I didn't say a word about dividend growth ... I'm talking about the dividend factor, which weights toward high dividend."

Belski agreed with Josh's comment that "Companies pay a high dividend for the most part because their share prices have collapsed," as Brown noted that dividend yields seem to go high just so they can be cut.

Josh said stats show dividends+buybacks leads to far stronger returns, and it's "completely false" that dividend stocks are "less volatile."

What Brown didn't get into was that a lot of people like the dividend stream and count on it in some way, even if, to our understanding, a better strategy may simply be to own a non-dividend stock and trim a few shares every quarter. Tax treatment can really affect people's mindset here even if maybe it shouldn't. But people can choose whichever approach they like. Brown's comments were most relevant in regard to what a high dividend (in terms of yield) often but not always signifies — a slumping share price and a place where the company can cut.

Josh unfazed by 5% NVDA pullbacks

At the top of Tuesday's (1/7) Halftime Report, Judge asked Josh Brown about NVDA's pullback. Josh said, "I try not to make too much of it."

Judge persisted that this is a "notable rollover," and Judge wondered, "Is this the breakout, or the breakdown."

Josh said there was nothing "at all" in Jensen's remarks that indicated any kind of a slowdown. Josh said NVDA is his largest position again. "I can live with 5%, uh, pullbacks. They don't, they don't affect me; they don't faze me."

Sarat Sethi said of NVDA, "It's gonna probably be dead money, or up and down, until earnings."

Stephanie Link called it "just a bit extended."

Someone makes CMCSA a Final Trade based in part on SpinCo

Stephanie Link happened to mention on Tuesday's (1/7) Halftime Report that inflation at 3% is "not horrible."

Judge retorted, "You cannot have a market that did all the work that it did (snicker) on the expectation ... of inflation coming down closer to target, and then now tell me that 3% is OK. It's not OK! It's not OK!"

Judge said MoffettNathanson downgraded AAPL to sell, "and their commentary I thought was worth reading to you as well."

Judge said the note said there's been a "great deal" of AAPL news recently, and "all of it's been bad."

Josh Brown said he doesn't disagree at all; "I don't understand what the fundamental drivers were behind the Apple rally." Sarat Sethi suggested, "It's a trading call. It's not an investing call." Stephanie Link said, "When I sold it, I was up about 35%." Congrats.

Brian Belski said B of A's cut to TSLA is just a "trading call."

Josh said SHAK has been a "spectacular winner," and he's not selling any of his stock "regardless of how much it's up."

Sarat Sethi touted FCX and the long-term need for copper but he said the trade is "gonna take some time."

Sarat bought more NSRGY (which is Nestle, not a stock heard often on the program).

Sarat said he's "selling my United and moving into Delta," which will be his "one and only" airline.

Josh again talked up RDDT's supposed monetization of one of the biggest "treasure troves" of (often stoopid) user comments that "LOMs" (we think that means Learning Object Metadata) will buy. Sarat's Final Trade was actually CMCSA, which he noted is "spinning off cable" (that would be SpinCo, which will be signing the CNBC contributor checks).

Judge bluntly says that Jim got buffaloed out of GM

Judge on Monday's (1/6) Halftime Report brought up GM and demanded of Jim Lebenthal, "Did you sell it too soon?"

Jim said, "Not by the numbers (snicker), I sold it at 57," but Jim said the question is "Should we get back into GM?"

Judge wondered, "Should you ever have gotten out of something based on an initial, 'Well, tariffs are comin'! Oh, I got to sell.' Which is what you did."

Jim responded, "I think the answer is yes, but I had experience, remember. I'd been in General Motors through the first Trump administration."

On Fast Money, Guy Adami said, "I don't think GM is out of the woods yet at all. And I think, in order to prove itself, it needs to close above 60. I don't see that happening anytime soon."

Joe predicts NVDA takes out all-time high

Joe Terranova opened Monday's (1/6) Halftime Report saying NVDA is "gonna continue to go higher. It's gonna take out the all-time high at 152.89."

Much of the NVDA conversation is everything you've heard before. Apparently Steve Weiss got a call while Jim was talking about NVDA having an "actually cheap" PEG ratio, prompting Jim to ask, "Are you with us?" Judge pointed out, "He's got a phone call coming in." Jim said, "Yeah. Jensen Huang."

Bryn Talkington suggested PLTR "trades down going into earnings this quarter." Joe said "I don't believe you reach for it right here," rather, look for it "somewhere in the upper 50s to the low 60s. I think that's the right spot."

If all the bitcoin in the world were locked away at Fort Knox, that would mean ... what ...

On Monday's (1/6) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss shrugged at what Judge said are "some" people making $250,000 bitcoin predictions, stating, "For me, it's a directional (snicker) trade" (as opposed to those other trades with no direction).

Bryn Talkington said the whole bitcoin reserve currency thing is just a "narrative" and not a "reality," but the institutional adoption is the "real deal."

Meanwhile, Bryn mentioned how UBER management thinks the stock is "undervalued." Weiss thinks more Ubers will be needed as "the work-from-home experiment is thinning out."

Jim Lebenthal said the DIS "narrative (snicker) has changed." (But who's Bob going to be replacing in 2028?) Jim is still talking about the final payment for Hulu.

Bill Baruch, who bought TSLA last year on Bottom Day in one of the show's best trades of 2024 (see below), joined remotely to say he trimmed AAPL. Bill bought MBLY and contended MBLY will be "in the thick of it" with autonomous driving. He sold TMUS for ... (drum roll) ... "portfolio management." Bill bought AMD, saying "this thing is way overdone to the downside."

Bill also bought more UBER, which was The Most Popular Stock On The Show.

Weiss actually bought UNH and made it his Final Trade. Jim offered RIG, which he admitted got "bear mauled during tax-loss harvesting in December."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman knocked the notion of C trading at a supposed all-time high just because it did a 1-for-10 a while back.

Jim and Weiss accuse each other of arguing for the sake of arguing

Early on Friday's (1/3) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal said "I hate hearing" one of "these aphorisms" that "you have to own the Mag 7." Jim concluded moments later, "When people say to you, 'You have to own something,' it's just not true."

But he was just getting warmed up.

Around the 20th minute, Jim stated, "I don't hear anyone ... coming into the desk today and saying, 'Let's go load up on the Mag 7.'"

Jim made it sound like that's unusual.

We don't think we've ever heard a Halftime panelist advise people "load up on the Mag 7" or even that people "have to" own the Mag 7 ... even though it's been a phenomenal trade for the last 2 years and basically the last decade.

1) Jim is detecting clues anywhere he can find them that suggest it's better to own CLF (snicker) than any Mag 7 name; 2) Just because nobody mentions a trade on the Halftime Report doesn't mean it's not working — it can be perhaps quite the contrary.

Anyway. Jim's comment led into a fairly amusing dust-up with Steve Weiss, also on the set at Post 9, stating that he added to VRT. Weiss further protested that he's been "fully invested in the Mag 7."

Jim stressed that his point is that Weiss, Bryn Talkington (the day's 4th panelist but not at Post 9) and Jim have all been trimming and told Weiss, "You're not hearing me. You're arguing with me just to argue with me. I'm saying nobody's coming on the desk today and saying, 'I'm adding to the Mag 7.'"

Weiss said, "I don't wanna argue with you for the sake of arguing, like you're trying to do. What I'm saying is, there's a difference between trimming, because of portfolio management, and because of fundamentals."

Jim said, "We're talking different things, and you're getting mad."

Weiss said, "I'm not getting mad. I try to be very patient with you." (Imagine if they were talking about Park City slopes.)

Guest host Courtney Reagan said at the end of the A Block that it was a "jam-packed beginning of the show."

Despite Jim's commentary, Tim Seymour on Fast Money (keep in mind, it's only the 3rd day of the year) suggested, "I actually think that '25 could look similar to '24."

Trim every day ... trim, trim, trim ...

In a show full of stock-trimming revelations, Steve Weiss on Friday's (1/3) Halftime Report said he trimmed Alphabet, for Reason No. 1 on the program, "the position frankly just got too big."

Weiss again knocked Waymo's profitability and again pointed out how with Uber, drivers pay for the insurance and upkeep of the cars, his favorite observation of the UBER/TSLA/GOOGL sphere.

"Call me old school, but I want a person in the driver seat," guest host Courtney Reagan said. Weiss insisted that riding in Waymo is "fine" and even "great."

Later, Court noted Benchmark reiterated a "sell" on NFLX. (This writer is long NFLX.) Weiss of course trimmed that too, he waited until this year to do it, and it was "purely a ... (drum roll) ... portfolio management call. ... The position just got way too big," he said, after extolling how great and promising the company is.

Kevin Simpson, who was at Post 9, said 2 things about NFLX this page totally agrees with: "They haven't really figured out how to completely monetize advertising," and "you can charge us anything; we're not gonna get rid of Netflix."

Actually, AT&T went straight up last year

Opening Friday's (1/3) Halftime Report, Bryn Talkington said she trimmed half of her AAPL stake, saying she thinks it's probably just a "market performer" and it already had a good November-December.

Steve Weiss said he trimmed AAPL too, he had bought into a "major upgrade cycle, until I learned that they're just gonna roll things out gradually."

Jim "Don't Buy Mag 7" Lebenthal said he agrees with Weiss, and "I applaud the move" made by Bryn.

Kevin Simpson said he's "sold Apple 10 times over the past 13 years."

Weiss yet again, for about the 10th year running, brought up the possibility, "given the problems telcos are having, right, how the stocks are just being shunned," of telcos saying "no more subsidies; we're tired of supporting Apple." Jim said it's "reasonable" but we don't know "when."

Jim added, "You've said it before."

CLF hit a 52-week low on Monday (at least Jim’s clients won’t call and complain about buying a stock at an all-time high)

Might as well get it out of the way.

On Friday's (1/3) Halftime Report, after a discussion of the U.S. Steel pending bailout, Jim Lebenthal said he found a reason to buy still more CLF and noted that CLF made an offer for X a while back, "so certainly U.S. Steel could've done better."

Judge would've given Jim the 3rd degree, had Judge been there, but guest host Courtney Reagan probably doesn't know viewers' history of hearing Jim talk about CLF.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said of the X deal that Joe Biden is blocking, "This has been a crazy one from beginning to end." Steve Grasso said Donald Trump is "not gonna let this one fail," Steve is long X and thinks "it goes substantially higher."

Jim gets Weiss back with a good dig on energy

On Friday's (1/3) Halftime Report, Bryn Talkington said FANG will continue to be "somewhat of a darling" in energy.

When guest host Courtney Reagan turned to Steve Weiss and said, referring to energy, "such a loser," Jim Lebenthal said, "What about energy?"

Kevin Simpson chimed in, "I thought that, but I didn't say it."

Weiss said of Jim, "Here's the thing: Even if he says something funny, it's deliberately so bad, you can't tell if he's talking about Cleveland Cliffs again, or me."

Kevin Simpson said he's sticking with MSTR as a "leveraged play on bitcoin" and mentioned how you can "bring in massive cash flow" by writing calls against it. Bryn suggested IBIT and said she sold May 70 calls for "close to $4 in premium." Weiss said "you can believe" bitcoin is going higher because of the new administration.

In fact, for his Final Trade, Weiss predicted $125,000 "is the next stop" for bitcoin.

Weiss also bought more GS, citing "so much pent-up demand" in the IPO/secondary cycle, another point he's made numerous times in the last couple years.

Court asked panelists for a New Year's resolution; they mostly basically said, do a good job and pick the winners. Jim had no resolutions, stating that the change of the calendar "doesn't change who I am." Courtney said, "My resolution is to make more meals my kids will eat."

Karen: ‘Not a dry eye’ at EC when Tyler signed off on Power Lunch

Thursday's (1/2) Fast Money was guest-hosted by Tyler Mathisen, whose sign-off from Power Lunch in December was chronicled on our home page.

In incredibly classy remarks at the top of Thursday's show, Karen Finerman told Tyler, "It's so nice to have you in your retirement ... that sendoff a week or two ago, whenever it was, really, not a dry in EC. Anyway, we're lucky to have you."

Meanwhile, later, Guy Adami said there's "more pain on the downside" for homebuilders. But Karen said builders could be in a "sweet spot" in that there's "enormous" pent-up demand, but inventory isn't coming on-line yet, and she'd be inclined to give 'em a shot.

Jim plans a ski trip not realizing there’s a strike going on

Having a TV platform gives folks a chance to ... vent personal outrage.

Jim Lebenthal on Thursday's (1/2) Halftime Report complained that he was in Park City, which got 2 feet of new snow, but Vail Mountain "didn't let any of us know that there was a ski patrol strike goin' on, so less than 20% of the mountain was open at the peak holiday time."

‘If you’re 85, you’re not gonna like what I’m saying’ (a/k/a Jim gets called with complaints about buying stocks at all-time highs)

Thursday's Halftime Report opened with a series of potential warnings — which doesn't really do anyone any good right now — and then got downright loopy as Josh Brown and Joe Terranova discussed "flows."

Jim Lebenthal said "I'm actually happy with some uncertainty," and he said the uncertainty in the market comes from presidential policies. Even so, "I do see a good year ahead" based on the "profit picture," Jim explained.

Liz Young Thomas declared, "Typically when the market is up over 50% in 2 years, you still see positivity in the following 12 months, but not to the magnitude that we've seen." (Translation: Another prediction for a market that's up 8-10% in a calendar year ... when have you ever heard that before ...)

Joe Terranova reverted to the land mine metaphor, stating, "The biggest potential land mine that's in front of us here in the next 30 days is earnings."

Then Joe said the "first several weeks" of January will clue us in to the "personality" of the 2025 market. "It's surprising to me that we're actually higher," Joe said, although it went down later in the day. (This review was posted overnight Monday/Tuesday.)

Josh Brown pointed out, "The majority of Wall Street was way underweight equities, uh, going into 2024." Then he stated, "What you really need to focus on here is, is flows. Very simply put: January should be a great month for flows."

Joe questioned Josh, "How do you treat the month of (sic 3 words redundant) January if the flows were to disappoint?"

Josh wondered, "Who would they disappoint?"

Joe said, "If the flows disappoint, and you don't see that type of confidence, is there a message there that you extrapolate through the remainder of the year?"

"No, I think it's a great outcome," Brown said.

Then Josh stated that "you don't wanna buy all-time highs if you don't have to. If you're 85, you're not gonna like what I'm saying. If you're any age under that, you should be happy to hear what I'm telling you. You want the pullback. Especially early in the year."

Actually, we think 85-year-olds probably enjoy buying the dip as much as anyone else. (For example, any time there's giveaways like on Jeremy Siegel Day on Aug. 5.)

Jim affirmed that a "correction would be healthy." Jim added that "a lot of times," people call him and complain about, "'Why are we buying stocks here; they're at an all-time high?' You know, almost definitionally (snicker), stocks are at all-time high all the time." (Ah. So that explains CLF, PARA and GM.)

Josh pointed out that pharma "did nothing last year," homebuilders are nowhere near 52-week highs and SBUX has never had 3 down years in a row.

Santoli suggested keeping the stock market on a "shorter leash."

Another year of UBER being incredibly underpriced by the Street that just doesn’t get it, apparently

On Thursday's (1/2) Halftime Report, guest host Courtney Reagan aired a morning clip of Jeremy Siegel (snicker) (who, um, didn't always have great calls last year) (see below) stating that companies need to see the results from all the AI stuff they're buying.

We don't really disagree with that.

Josh Brown acknowledged Jeremy's point and said, "The question is, where's the ROI. The ROI is probably gonna happen not with Copilot per se, but with agentic AI."

Jim Lebenthal touted Alphabet, though Josh Brown has been trimming. Josh though said "I love it. I'm not in love with it," calling it a "headline-risk name for the first half of this year." Josh said he thinks this is "Amazon's year" instead.

Josh said UBER is the "most mispriced stock in all of large-cap tech," though he conceded it's not a tech stock "by taxonomy" (there's that word again). Josh stressed again that UBER only has capacity problems, not robotaxi problems.

EQT = Zzzzzzzzz

Josh Brown and Joe Terranova found something to agree on during Thursday's (1/2) Halftime Report, as Josh said EQT "is about to break out."

Joe said it benefits from its "proximity" to data center demand and he praised the "strong fundamentals." Jim Lebenthal said a lot of nat gas' gains have to do with Russia-Ukraine as well as export terminals.

Meanwhile, Joe said he unloaded NU, bought it a couple months ago but it was a "horrible trade," he "got stopped out of it" and bought the XBI, which he's been "tactical" in.

Joe said the JOET owns airlines because of "momentum," which we thought is kinda why the JOET owns anything, supposedly. Joe said we "always hear about the effect of weather" on airlines (that was yet another cautionary warning about the 2025 stock market heard on the show); he'll leave the "research" to others.

Joe suggested in financials, focusing on SQ, PYPL and TW. Josh backed SQ.

Joe, Frank close the year with great message to viewers

On Tuesday's (12/31) Halftime Report, Diana Olick reported on the surprising surge in retail real estate demand. Diana said open-air malls have lower vacancies than closed-in malls.

Jenny Harrington said you can't paint the sector with "one broad brush" and touted DEA, which Jenny said got slammed by DOGE on inaccurate perceptions. Jenny also touted the yield in O. Joe Terranova offered IRM and WELL.

In a classy comment, Joe closed his Final Trade saying, "I think I speak for all of us on the Investment Committee, everyone on the show, I just wanna wish everyone in 2025 the 2 most important assets in your portfolio, and in life, and that's health and happiness. That's what matters most. Thank you to all the viewers for watching all year. It's been a phenomenal year for all of us."

Guest host Frank Holland said, "It really has. It really has been great joining you guys ... hopefully this show is really helping out our viewers make their investment decisions, you guys are all fantastic along with the other Investment Committee members that are here on Halftime every single week. It's been a pleasure and an honor to fill in with you."

Honestly, we have no idea why Josh was doing a ‘Trade School’ on ... something or other ... on Dec. 31

On Tuesday's year-end (12/31) Halftime Report, Josh Brown provided a Trade School, apparently about active management and ETFs, stating that in 2014, he "wrote a blog post called The Relentless Bid Explained, and I basically prophecied exactly what's played out." (Congrats.)

He said the transition of financial advising from commissions to "more of a fee-based, fiduciary relationship" has prompted advisors to move money from actively managed mutual funds into ETFs.

Ok. There you go.

Josh said "73% of stocks underperformed their own index. It's very very hard, as an active manager, to beat an index that does that." (At least he didn't give us a Trade School on how P.E. ratios in tech stocks are just too high.)

Joe says financial advisor unable to explain what year-end slide means

Well, it was a lousy close to 2024.

But, evidently, so what.

Guest host Frank Holland opened Tuesday's (12/31) Halftime Report saying "this is the first time since 1952 the S&P's had declines of 1% or more in the final 5 trading days of the year. Does that mean anything now?"

Joe Terranova said an advisor a day ago "hit me with that statistic," and Joe asked what it meant, "and the advisor didn't have an answer for that."

We will infer from that that it means nothing.

Joe then provided a graphic of stellar returns from 1949-52, then said that in 1953, the market went down 1%. Then he said 1954 was up 52% and 1955 was up 31%. So if 2025 is "gonna look like '53, I'll take it, if you tell me that '26 and '27 are gonna look like '54 and '55."

OK. We'll go along with that. But the idea that today's stock market should draw inspiration from the days when Otto Graham was the NFL's premier quarterback is, um, a bit of a stretch. (What did Paul Brown think about algorithms ...)

Josh Brown lectured anyone disappointed about the final week. "if you required a Santa Claus rally this year ... you've probably been doing this wrong. ... This is one of the best years in the history of the stock market," Josh said.

Josh pointed out how the "biggest bull" a year ago was Ed Yardeni, with a 5,400 target.

Frank told Jenny Harrington "just 1 more stat," that the S&P is trying to avoid closing the year with 4 straight losing days for the first time since 1966 (when Bart Starr was the NFL's premier quarterback).

"I don't see meaning in that," Jenny said, adding those kinds of stats "mess with people's heads."

Frank said the "CNBC Data Team" found that just since Election Day, 95% of the stock market's gains are in the Mag 7. Joe once again stated that he runs an "equally weighted strategy," so that kind of outperformance is "troublesome" to him. But Joe said the Mag 7 is where the earnings growth is coming. "The market is more and more growth," Joe said, pointing out for the 2nd straight day that 2016 was the last time value outperformed growth in an up year and adding, "To me, for value to outperform, it means we're having a correction in the market."

Jenny complained that AXP's multiple "shouldn't" be this much of a discount to the Mag 7. "So I can kinda see money flowing out of Mag 7 (snicker) and into stocks like that," Jenny said. Jenny said there's been "so much noise" and we need to get past inauguration and Cabinet nominations, then "let the dust settle," and people will "start to look at valuations (snicker) instead of being swayed by stories" (snicker).

The study of classifying, describing, and naming organisms

Josh Brown on Tuesday's (12/31) Halftime Report said financials had a big year, "the problem is the taxonomy (snicker) — spending all this time trying to categorize what type of stock something is ... you can have value stocks become momentum stocks."

Guest host Frank Holland said he likes Josh's use of "taxonomy."

Joe Terranova said sectors with earnings growth in 2024 besides the Mag 7 were "rewarded," including airlines and financials.

Josh said he would "trust" Tim Cook among all Mag 7 CEOs to "nail the relationship with Trump," even over Elon, "who may be flying a little too close to the sun" and according to Josh, is "inhabiting a cottage" at Mar-a-Lago "and just walking into meetings whenever he wants." But Josh said AAPL's "41 trailing P.E." is high in any terms. "If I did not own the stock, I would not be running around buying it," Josh said.

Malcolm Ethridge, who generally is on Closing Bell, touted fintech. Malcolm also backed the XLF or big banks in general, and he likes the CIBR so that he can own both PANW and CRWD, and the space is "ripe for mass consolidation." (This writer is long CRWD.) Jenny Harrington said she wants to be in cybersecurity but not at these valuations.

Joe doesn’t want ‘40% exposure to the Mag 7’

Over this weekend (see below), this page lauded Joe Terranova for several calls on the Halftime Report in 2024 favoring the Mag 7, even if Joe himself (via the JOET) isn't too excited about Mag 7 outperformance.

In the 13th minute of Monday's (12/30) Halftime, Joe bluntly stated he's tired of Mag 7 outperformance.

Joe shared, "I'm equally weighted ... I have an equally weighted strategy. I don't wanna have 40% exposure to the Mag 7. Does that mean that the Mag 7 the last 2 years have not been the place to be? Without question, they've been the place to be. And they've had the earnings growth. But at some time- at some point, does that story, is gonna change (sic)? And I think I kinda wanna get a little bit ahead of that."

Joe pointed out most of MSFT's gains in 2024 came in January; it was up 10% then, 13% now, "kinda running in place."

(Honestly ... here's where we wish we'd paid closer attention in statistics class ... we find it curious that Joe is so wary of 40% exposure to the best companies in the world. Does Joe actually think that's a greater "risk" than owning the entire S&P 500? ... As if the Mag 7 could go down 20% and the rest of the market is flat? ... Like they say ... Puh ... leeze.)

Frank asked Bryn Talkington about UBS maintaining a "sell" on TSLA and a 264 (snicker) target (the screen graphic said it's a 226 target). Frank corrected himself to 226 later and said consensus is 296.

Bryn said it's "not just a car company" and that there's still "a few bears out there." Bryn said she sold a January 400 TSLA call and expects to get called away on Jan. 17, but maybe not.

On Monday's Fast Money, Guy Adami opened honoring guest host Sully for Sully's new Power Lunch gig with a spectacular statement (see our home page) and said the market is now realizing "a lot of sort of headwinds" that have been around for a while. Grandpa Carter Worth complained about how there's only 100 years of year-end markets and "there's not a lot of data" or it's always different, but "what we do know is, the market is full." Carter predicts the market will "falter" in January.

Joe says ‘we can’t pretend to think we know’ what the future trend is

In his opening statement on Monday's (12/30) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova basically made the case against anyone sharing stock picks on TV, stating, "I think what we're learning as we approach the end of the year is that we can't pretend to think we know what the future holds in store in terms of the actual trend, the actual direction."

Joe said December is "fading" into "a narrow, concentrated performance from the Mag 7 once again." (We think we also caught a "Fliday" (sic) (snicker) from Joe.)

Bryn Talkington said "speculative froth is coming out of the market," which is "such a healthy thing to happen."

"I would say directionally, the market's going higher," Bryn said, but she wants to be "judicious" about stock picks.

Rob Sechan, speaking remotely from a living room but sounding like he's in a cavern, said he sees "the potential for a mean-reversion trade." Rob said the "unwind" of some big gainers might continue because so many people are "lopsided" in positioning.

But Rob later said it's a "fool's game" to "take an early prediction and carry it out for the balance of the year."

Jason Snipe is still "positive and constructive on the market" and thinks the dollar "will pull back some."

Joe said there are "very high expectations" for earnings in 2025, which could be the "biggest land mine."

NVDA earnings still 2 months away

During Monday's (12/30) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova looked at COIN's chart on his screen in "disbelief." (Who woulda thunk that crypto-related stuff would be so volatile.)

Rob Sechan called health care "a great warning story," because the Street expected 20% earnings growth this year but got 3%. (Who woulda thunk that health care stocks could disappoint.)

Jason Snipe pointed out the impact that higher (than usual) mortgage rates are dealing to DHI and other builders. Joe said "13% of the homebuilding construction industry is undocumented workers."

Joe suggested focusing on natural gas, pointing to demand for power from data centers.

2024’s best (and worst) of Halftime Report, Fast Money and beyond

This site — alone among financial media — makes it an annual tradition to recap the best and worst of what we heard on CNBC's Halftime Report during the past year.

It's a tradition going back to practically this site's mid-2008 inception; in our first year-end review, December 2009, we actually singled out Karen Finerman's Genentech trade, though it wasn't No. 1 that year (check our archives.)

We freely admit: 1) We don't monitor every stock pick made on the show(s) (we had to give up caring about Final Trades long ago); and 2) We don't see anywhere close to every minute of CNBC's business day programming.

Still we see and hear enough to know who — at least at times — had some big hits ... and who had some misses.

If you ever scroll through this page's archives (snicker), you'll see endless short-term commentary about how names such as NVDA, TSLA, AI stuff may trade for a few days or weeks. At year-end, we're more interested in the calls that stuck.

Most of our best/worst findings of 2024 relate to a few subjects: Bitcoin, Donald Trump, TSLA, Federal Reserve, Aug. 5.

One trend you'll see here — and we didn't realize how pervasive this was — is that a lot of stocks/investments were flat through summer and early fall, then started skyrocketing around the time of Election Day. Whether that's because of the election outcome, or just because it was finally settled, we're not sure anyone knows.

Here's the trade that would've won Call of the Year, except that no one actually stated it: "Invest in anything backed by Donald Trump."

As always, we wish the Halftime/Fast Money panelists/guests the best in trading and in making calls. We'd like to have a list of 100 great calls and 0 bad calls. But that's never how it actually works. So we try to come up with a balanced ending. This year, for whatever reason, we ended up with 19 calls on either side of the ledger.

Our goal, as always, is to inform — inform The. Best. Audience. In. The. World. Of. Media. (Yes, you know that you are.) ... If you're here, you "get it" on every level, you know what they're talking about on CNBC and you're also picking up those pop culture referencs too. Journalism is changing. Traditional media can only afford to cover far less material than it once did. We're only here because you are, cranking it out in real time, fighting for every click we get.

Now for 2024 in review — the Busts, and the Call of the Year ...

The Busts of 2024

19. Jamie Dimon, Feb. 26, on soft landing odds less than 50/50: Tells Leslie Picker he gives it a 35-40% chance.

18. Torsten Slok predicts no rate cuts in 2024 (March 1), calls stocks "overvalued" (Oct. 18): Said in October that a forward P.E. of 22 "implies a 3% annualized return over the coming three years."

17. Jeremy Siegel, Jan. 26, on growth vs. value: Said growth stocks could have "perhaps a zero year" while value is up 10-15%.

16. Jim Lebenthal rides CLF to a 52-week low, years-long: Even Al Michaels was knocking it.

15. Jenny Harrington adds KSS to portfolios that don't already have it, May 24: "Thinking about Kohl's, right, and I actually added it to the portfolios that didn't already own it."

14. Brad Gerstner, March 27, on today's political climate: Touted new initiative called Invest America, which would be a "401(k)-like account from birth." Brad said, "We expect that this will be a piece of legislation that we can get passed (snicker) in the spring of 2025."

13. Dan Ives, June 10, on Apple's WWDC: Predicted event would be a "jaw-dropper."

12. Jenny Harrington compares April 2024 market to March 2000: "We're trading at 21 times ... last time the market traded at that was January 2022, um, and March — this is really inspiring — March of 2000."

11. Steve Weiss, Jan. 25, short TSLA, bought more puts: "There is no there. The best days are far behind it ... should break a hundred." He did abandon this position during the spring, or it would've ranked higher.

10. Jeremy Siegel calls Kamala Harris "prohibitive favorite," July 5: Said his opinion is that if the Democratic nominee happens to be Kamala Harris, she will be the "prohibitive favorite."

9. Jeffrey Gundlach, calls recession in 2024, Jan. 31: "Yes I am, in 2024, Yes I am ... When I hear the word 'Goldilocks,' I- I get nervous." By Sept. 18, he was not giving up: "I still think there's a good shot that the history books will say September '24 was the start of a recession."

8. Barrons, Jan. 16, prefers UNH to Mag 7: Judge said the venerable publication decided to go "super provocative this week" by building a "better" Magnificent 7, adding BRK.B, V and UNH and subtracting AAPL, TSLA and META.

7. Marko Kolanovic's "Dotcom bubble," Feb. 7: Judge reports Marko issued a note: "Market concentration continues to flash a warning sign as we are near the highs of the Dotcom era. ... The current period is in some ways worse than the Dotcom bubble."

6. Marko Kolanovic's 4,200 S&P target, July 3: Judge: "Marko Kolanovic is, is leaving, uh, JPMorgan. Um, he had the lowest target on the Street of 4,200. We wish him well, obviously. Those are not easy jobs."

5. Dan Nathan, April 2, says TSLA ($160s that day) is "probably going to a hundred": "One of the worst-looking stock charts I've ever seen in my life" (138 was the low later that month).

4. Tom Lee says 50% small cap gains still possible, Aug. 9 (Closing Bell): Honestly, we don't think anyone actually believed it, but he did reaffirm it. He said, "I wouldn't be a seller of any of these megacaps here," but Judge reminded him that he made a call "months ago" that small caps could be up 50% this year. Tom said he's still "very constructive on small caps" and that "the upside is at least 50%." And, "I still think 50% could happen before year-end." Judge said, "Wow. Wow."

3. Dow Jones Industrial Average massively underperforms: The price weighting of this legendary index has always made people scratch their heads ... especially when UNH gets to be the top dog.

2. Comcast tosses CNBC into SpinCo, November: CMCSA honchos Mike Cavanagh and Mark Lazarus insist the cable channels it's jettisoning will "play offense" (snicker) and be "predator, not prey" and the pair (probably) mention "digital" and "IP" a bunch of times.

Bust of the Year: Jeremy Siegel’s ‘out of body experience,’ calls for emergency 75-point cut, Aug. 5

It was pretty much a unanimous vote.

Jeremy Siegel said on Squawk Box on the morning of Aug. 5, "I'm calling for a 75-basis-point emergency cut in the Fed funds rate, with another 75-basis-point cut indicated for next month at the September meeting. Uh, and that's minimum."

The comments basically speak for themselves. Still, Jeremy joined Closing Bell 9 days later, Aug. 14, and protested to Judge, "By the way, I didn't say there was a recession, I didn't say it's a bear market, I didn't say dump your stocks." But he allowed that if given a do-over, "I would've stated it differently." Later that day on Fast Money, Guy Adami said of Jeremy's commentary, "Everything that he said implied everything that he just said he didn't mean. ... I don't know what he was thinking that day. It was sort of an out-of-body experience for him clearly."

The best calls of 2024 — and the Call of the Year is ...

19. Tim Seymour dismisses small caps, Jan. 24: "Do we have to own small caps? I mean, small caps have underperformed for a decade." It's a comment that speaks for itself. Well said.

18. Josh Brown calls LYV under $100 a "gift," April 30: Making calls on stocks taking special-event hits is or should be the bread-and-butter of CNBC panelists. Josh didn't really trumpet this trade long enough to make this list. However, he was spectacularly correct in his initial Justice Dept. suit assessment and contrarian call while many warned of years of uncertainty. He did say on June 4 that he trimmed, citing regulatory overhang.

17. Dan Ives' green jacket, multiple appearances: Maybe some like the coral better. Opinions vary.

16. Bryn Talkington and Brian Belski declare P.E. a "terrible" or even the "worst" way to forecast stock moves (co-call), January: Bryn on Jan. 11 and 13 calls P.E. a "terrible metric" for stock trades. Belski says Jan. 10, "Valuation by the way is the worst thing you should look at in tech. It has no predictive power, we proved it in a- in a chart that we put in in our report."

15. The Najarians get back on CNBC — by paying their way, all year: Kinda odd to see one of CNBC's most popular duos not on any program, but in the advertisements (which they're unfortunately prolific at).

14. Josh Brown touts GLW in May and June: Easily one of the show's best short-term calls, it did come close in early August to round-tripping the sudden gain, but if you held on through year-end, you're fine.

13. Jenny Harrington talks up DOCU, Jan. 12: This stock was not mentioned much in 2024. However, we nearly put it on the list for 2023, and we're giving Jenny carryover credit, as Jenny in January (stock at $64) said she bought it at $42 in September 2023. It did virtually nothing from February through October, then caught fire at year-end for the 2nd year in a row. A great call on one of those pandemic names that people have sort of forgotten about.

12. Stephanie Link buys CMG, Aug. 14: The stock, about $51 that day, had just bottomed. This is not the biggest gainer of the calls we scrutinized, but it's a prominent stock, and basically everyone else took a wait-and-see approach to the CEO change, while Stephanie was right to plunge in.

11. Bill Baruch buys ARM just before the spike, Feb. 9: This was one of the biggest 1-day bursts ever called on the show. ARM closed that Friday at $115. On Monday it reached $148. It did pull back over the following few days but spent much of March in the 130s and 140s. Bill did backpedal, slightly, on how long he would hold it, or this would rank higher.

10. Liz Young Thomas gets married! Announced June 7: And appeared on the Halftime Report the Friday before. "Big weekend!," Judge said.

9. Karen Finerman says CRWD's slide more than outweighs legal liability, Aug. 8: This one's got a little home field advantage. (This writer bought CRWD after Karen's call and is long today.) In a discussion of DAL's lawsuit threat against CRWD in the wake of the summer outage, Karen noted the market-cap decrease in CRWD vs. the cost of the entire amount of damages that DAL was claiming and pointed out CRWD is down from 369 all the way to 240, "so I think this, this too shall pass."

8. Bryn Talkington trounces Steve Weiss in TSLA bull/bear debate, April 17: While Steve was touting shorting TSLA, Bryn cautioned against betting against the stock longer term. The shares were just a few days from bottoming, and this would rank higher had Bryn suggested "back up the truck right now" rather than the next few months probably being weak. Weiss got rather pointed in their debate. "Steve. Wisdom is chasing you if you would just stop. OK. Like, seriously," Bryn said. Weiss insisted, "What the hell is she saying? I don't even get it ... Just admit you're wrong and the stock is going lower. And I'll buy more lower. That's what she should be saying. Facts are facts." A week later, Weiss praised Bryn's "brilliant call."

7. Karen Finerman calls the Aug. 5 bottom, Aug. 2: For those who thought the yen-carry crisis was the end of the world, Karen predicted on Friday's Fast Money, "Monday, we probably sell off again, and then I would look to be buying things on Tuesday." We think the bottom actually took place Monday, but this was close enough.

6. Andrew Left pronounces market "great," June 7: Too often, CNBCers parse everything. Left was mostly on to discuss GME but breezily told Judge, "Everything's just fine. The economy's great, the stock market's great," about the best advice anyone could've had this year, or most years.

5. Bill Baruch buys the TSLA bottom with a "calculated position," April 22: Bill said TSLA hit a March 2020 trend-line low of 140 — and that day was the 2024 low. Judge scoffed, "One of my problems with technical analysis is, trend lines don't mean squat if the fundamentals of a story change."

4. Steve Weiss recommends bitcoin, most of the year: On Feb. 14, Steve predicted bitcoin would "get past" the "prior highs in the 60s." He touted it several times in Q1, then did say in late April he had sold his position, then started talking it up again in Q4. This was a strong contender for Call of the Year. Had Steve said in August, "If Donald Trump wins, bitcoin is going through the roof," it might've been.

3. Steve Grasso predicts 3 rate cuts in 2024, May 6: People forget that this was a very iffy subject in the first half of 2024, when a lot of voices on CNBC started suggesting no rate cuts this year, making this exactly-right prediction a sensational call. Karen Finerman several times questioned why the Fed would "give it away" for free when there was no need. Steve reiterated his 3-cut prediction May 15.

2. Steve Eisman predicts Donald Trump victory, May 21: The famed investor told Fast Money, "My call is, that, with as much certainty as I could possibly have, I think Trump wins every single swing state and becomes president." This would've been the Call of the Year, except that he followed it with, "Um, and, I don't think that has much implications for the market at all."

Call of the Year: Joe Terranova and the Mag 7

The. Man. Quite. Simply. Was. On. Fire.

Joe Terranova so dominated the "broader" market observations on the 2024 edition of CNBC's Halftime Report, he's the runaway choice for Call of the Year.

Even though it's not even 1 particular call that we're singling out. (That's a bit of a break with tradition.) Rather, we are taking artistic license to say that Joe's wire-to-wire series of calls — far more than any other panelists' — correctly pegged 2024 as Another Year of the Mag 7.

CNBC.com has a Mag 7 index. Here's what the chart for 2024 looks like:

Here's a quick recap ...

Jan. 10, Joe implies 2024 could be 2023 all over again: Noting small caps and energy were weak to start the year, Joe said the "Mag 5" minus AAPL and TSLA are leaders. Judge questioned, "What are you telling me, that 2024 is gonna be 2023 all over again?" "That's a big risk," Joe said.

May 22, Joe predicts NVDA, then $930-$950, breaks $1,000 after earnings: Joe expressed doubt that people would unload NVDA (which was pre-split) in the event of an earnings miss. Joe said NVDA is "set up the right way" where it keeps moving higher and tops $1,000 in afterhours. The next day, it hit $1,060, and within a couple weeks was $1,200.

June 10, Joe predicts AAPL crosses $200 after earnings: On Monday, June 10, with another highly watched earnings report looming, Joe said AAPL has "the type of momentum that most likely propels the stock above $200 at some point this afternoon or in the coming days." It didn't cross $200 until the next day — and within a month was $230.

Sept. 11, Joe says be long days after early September skid: Joe opened the program stating, "You can play the market from the long side as long as we technically hold above 5,400 in the S&P 500." At the end of the show, Joe predicted the S&P 500 (having slid 90, yes 90, points that day and down 15 points when Joe spoke) would be higher at day's end. It was.

Oct. 23, Joe is first and only panelist to suggest GOP sweep: "I also think a lot of what's going on with the semis does relate to the possibility of a Trump and Republican sweep."

Joe did waffle a bit back in February about reducing Mag 7 exposure, including his notable debate with Adam Parker on Closing Bell. Maybe, like that ESPN sportswriter show, we should dock him a point or two. But unlike how so many panelists/guests are trying to call Mag 7 direction every week or, worse yet, suggesting what to do based on P.E. ratio, Joe was consistently suggesting — from January through December — that Mag 7 is probably going higher. To Joe and the rest of the Halftime/Fast Money/CNBC sphere, 1) Thanks for showing us the way, 2) Keep doing what you're doing, and 3) Happy Trading!

Jenny suggests Wendy’s might start siphoning SBUX sales

Often, when Josh Brown and Jenny Harrington are on the same episode of the Halftime Report, viewers tend to get a debate.

That's what happened Friday (12/27), when Josh talked up SBUX and said "being down 3 years in a row is a pretty rare thing."

Jenny first told the old saw about the fastest way to make $2 million in the restaurant business; you start with $10 million. Jenny said SBUX is "overpriced" and the coffee is "mediocre."

Jenny explained that a week ago, she was "on the phone with the management team from Wendy's," and, "You know what they're looking at? They're looking at coffee ... Everyone wants to be in coffee. Because it's easy to add and it's high margin."

Josh cut in, "Find me one person, walking around, with a straight face, with a coffee cup from Wendy's, saying that they used to go to Starbucks. ... Find me one."

Jenny protested, "Joshy. Joshy," claiming "it's the same as the athleisure space."

And oh by the way, compare the DIS/NFLX market cap

Friday's (12/27) Halftime Report was guest-hosted by Frank Holland, who had Jenny Harrington and Kevin Simpson at Post 9 and Josh Brown remotely.

It was one of those light, holiday-related trading days without much news, but Frank and the crew put together a crisp show (even if Frank did ask the question about what to expect in 2025 a little too often).

Nobody seemed to think Friday's selloff — which got worse by the end of the day — was much to worry about.

Josh said maybe Friday's market is typical selling, or maybe it's people sensing there will be rebalancing sales in January and they're "trying to front-run it a little bit."

Jenny said, "We're getting a hint of what's to come. And what's to come is going to be a real, to Josh's point, rebalancing."

Kevin said he expects a "bumpy ride, volatility" in the first couple weeks of 2025, and he's "poised" to buy the dips.

Frank asked Josh if Josh sees a broadening next year. Josh said, "Respectully, there is no broadening," pointing to the Mag 7 and the group of stocks sort of near the Mag 7. Josh added, "Nothing has kept up with- with this particular subset of stocks."

Bob Pisani said he doesn't know whether "ignored" sectors can get investors off the "crack cocaine" (snicker) of AI stocks.

Kevin bought DASH and called it a "convenience that will never go away."

Julia Boorstin reported that the Netflix Christmas Day games were the "most streamed NFL games ever." (This writer is long NFLX.)

Josh said "Netflix is actually growing revenue this year faster than any other year." But Josh said NFLX is 40 times earnings while DIS is 20 times (whether those numbers are right, we have no idea) and "a little bit more attractive valuation-wise," but he wouldn't sell NFLX.

Kevin Simpson curiously said, "There's more value at Disney than there is at Netflix, but you can't stop this momentum. This stock will go to a thousand dollars."

Actually (keep in mind, this writer is long NFLX and has no position in DIS), we question Kevin's "more value" contention, which Frank never asked Kevin to clarify. 10 years ago, Kevin's statement is correct. The theme parks will always be there. But today, DIS is trying to reinvent cable TV channels, and NFLX is streaming and according to Josh Brown, growing revenue faster than ever, despite still charging people far less than they'd actually pay while rapidly developing all kinds of advertising levers and live sports/concert content. Kevin's assertion of "more value" is certainly debatable.

Joe notes last 4 Januarys have provided either the yearly high or low

Josh Brown early on Thursday's (12/26) Halftime Report said there are "3 land mines" in Q1, the No. 1 risk being NVDA's earnings Feb. 26.

Risk No. 2 is the dollar getting out of control, and No. 3 is "tariff stuff."

Josh and Jim Lebenthal addressed the mentality of younger investors. Jim stated, "The data is factual that a lot of younger generation particularly skewing to males are looking at the stock market as a source of gambling." But it's not about gambling, Jim said; "it has to do with an intellectual pursuit of trying to find a dollar's worth of value selling for 50 cents."

Josh noted how much Miami-area land Ken Griffin has been buying and said it comes from "people who are 27 years old and need to make 4,000% every time they place a trade."

Joe made an excellent observation about how early January, for the last 4 years, has provided either the market low (in 2021, 2023 and 2024) or high (2022), providing a blueprint for the rest of the year. Though Joe conceded it's possible that the trend "breaks" in 2025.

Josh says he was first Halftime ‘cast member’ to announce a bitcoin stake

Josh Brown on Thursday's (12/26) Halftime Report revealed, "I've invested in bitcoin since before it broke 3,000. I think I was the first cast member of Halftime Report to come on the air and say it."

Josh said he's "middle of the road" and not a "nutcase" on bitcoin and mentioned the idea of a "strategic bitcoin reserve," which seems "really likely."

Bryn Talkington though said a U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve would require congressional approval, so she gives that a "low probability." Bryn suggested "technically," bitcoin could hit $65,000 before $200,000, but she's "long-term bullish."

Seems like everyone expects stocks to be sold at some point in January

Guest host Frank Holland opened Thursday's (12/26) Halftime flagging the 10-year at 4.609% and said it's near highs last seen in May.

Frank asked Josh Brown about "trends" in the final week of trading.

Josh said he doesn't "assign" much importance to the last few trading days of the year. But Josh did say to expect seeing some big winners selling "in the first 2 weeks of the new year" in "mechanical" trades just to rebalance portfolios.

Joe Terranova curiously drew a distinction between money in the market and "people" in the market. Bryn Talkington said they should "record" and "replay" Joe's explanation for a "foundational piece of knowledge" about how "the machines run the market on a daily basis," but over the longer term, "momentum, sentiment, fundamentals and earnings, you know, drive returns," Bryn said.

Unlike Josh, Bryn said that in the final days of the year, "the direction should be higher." Bryn predicted "a lot more volatility in like the 3rd and 4th week of January" than in the first 2 weeks of the year.

Jim Lebenthal too shrugged off the importance of the last week of the year, but he said next year, "the rally should broaden."

Steve Liesman: ‘A Complete Unknown’ is a ‘terrific’ film

Bryn Talkington on Thursday's (12/26) Halftime Report indicated "the parts are greater than the sum" at DELL.

Josh Brown said he thinks MMM is only in the "2nd or 3rd inning."

Josh called SBUX a "steal" around 90, for his Final Trade. Bryn offered UBER.

Bob Pisani said buybacks in 2024 have gotten really close to $1 trillion but aren't there yet.

Bryn said she had "no expectation in any universe" that PLTR would end the year at 82; Bryn called it "the most expensive stock in the market."

Jim Lebenthal referred to the SBUX CEO as Brian "Niccols" (sic).

Steve Liesman on Power Lunch said he saw "A Complete Unknown" and called it "terrific," saying "all these music biopics, none of them put the music at the center. The music was at the center of this one." Steve said Timothée did an "unbelievable job."

Carter Worth: ‘Who the heck knows’ what return stocks will have in 2025

Mary Lago was Judge's guest on Monday's (12/23) Closing Bell and predicted ... of course ... 5-10% returns next year, because nobody in the world would predict 20%-plus (even though it's often happened recently).

As always, according to Lago, the outlook for next year looks strong but we've supposedly pulled ahead some of those gains, hence 5-10%, which Judge indicated would be something of a disappointment, especially if it's the 5% end of that range.

On Fast Money, Carter Worth was asked by Dom Chu about this subject, admitting he has "no idea" what the 2025 market return will be.

"The truth is," Worth stated, "It's a Wall Street convention, uh, that was adopted about 35 years ago to have a year-ahead price target. Who the heck knows. 12 months, vs. 13, what about 11. It's a feel-good, like a comfort blanket, someone says to you, 'I think we'll be up, uh, 10-12%.' We also know, and this is important, that every year since strategists have been tracked, every single year, they have predicted up years."

Yep.

Judge says ‘sucked’ on air (and he wasn’t talking about the Pittsburgh Steelers)

"I think momentum continues into year-end, um, in the tech trade," Rob Sechan offered at the top of Monday's (12/23) Halftime Report, but he said "from a macro standpoint, we're trimming our overweight to technology and we're adding value (snicker), cyclical value."

Rob said that he's also "guiding towards U.S. exceptionalism still."

Jim Lebenthal said he agrees with Rob's points and that Rob "could've said something" when they were in makeup, which set the crew up for a couple minutes of jokes.

Rob chortled, "You were up there for a half-hour; I was only up there for 5 minutes."

Judge told Jim, "You walked into that. You earned that one."

Jim started to make his point and Judge cut in with a chuckle, "Wait a minute — you went to makeup?"

Anyway, Jim said what's happening now is "just the early phases of a good old-fashioned correction." Jim predicted some "pent-up selling" in early January. (Because that pushes the capital gains off, which is why this April, it's so much better to pay tax on stocks sold in January 2024 than in December 2024.)

Joe Terranova outdid Judge in a big way, explaining that he wanted to ask Jim and Rob a question, and it was a fantastic question: "Owning value, is it a requirement that you have to have a correction. Because that seems like the only time that value really works. In recent memory."

Jim said "No" but admitted "it might not work here."

Jim stressed that he can find companies in energy and commodities with "single digit multiples (snicker) with free cash flow." Judge said, "That doesn't mean they're good buys. I can find a lot of stuff that's trading really cheap that's sucked this year."

Jim claimed, "I think you're making my point for me," which is that there's "potential for multi-times returns (snicker)" in those names.

Torsten was smart to do a note the day before Christmas Eve; Judge evidently had nothing else to quote (a/k/a What about Marc Chaikin’s idiotic and misleading commercial about selling NVDA that is somehow OK’d by the FCC)

Joe Terranova, who must've said "rebalance" or "rebalancing" about a hundred times on Monday's (12/23) Halftime Report, curiously said "momentum is still favoring equal-weighted strategies. Momentum is still favoring financials. Momentum is still favoring industrials."

Judge pointed out, "Momentum is still favoring financials? But it's down almost 5% in a month."

Rob Sechan chipped in, "They're stil in an uptrend, to Joe's point."

Joe at one point stated, "I think we greet the year with a tremendous amount of uncertainty." (Saying on television either that "there's so much uncertainty" in the market or that it's a "stock-picker's market" always rings up the CNBC players' card.) As a result, Joe said the market has "recalibrated" to be "bordering on skepticism."

Judge said Torsten Slok sees a "90% chance" of NVDA's earnings disappointing. Jim Lebenthal suggested that with a 31 P.E. (who knows if that's accurate), maybe such a disappointment is already priced in. Jim said maybe there will be disappointment by the end of next year, but not in the next couple of quarters.

Rob claimed he bought NVDA "when it dropped to 29 times, 99 bucks, 96 bucks."

Joe advised not "reaching" for PLTR.

Jim bought more QCOM (Zzzzzzzzz).

Joe said $85,000 is a "huge area" for bitcoin.

On Closing Bell, Judge was barking up the Torsten tree again.

What neither Julia nor Barron’s nor Joe mentioned was what happens if the rapidly collapsing Pittsburgh Steelers blow this game

Julia Boorstin on Monday's (12/23) Halftime Report said NFLX paid $150 million for its Christmas Day games. (Remember that Howard Stern said that while buffering problems may be tolerated in a Mike Tyson fight, it won't be tolerated with NFL games.) (This writer is long NFLX.)

Judge said Barron's recommends "sidelines" for NFLX, saying sports rights are expensive, the Tyson fight had glitches, and the stock's pricey. Joe Terranova said he's owned it for about a couple years, but if you don't own it now, he thinks you have to "wait," which is basically what Barron's says. But Joe said he's hanging on because he's not sure the analyst community is enthusiastic enough, and a few actually have sells.

Meanwhile, Joe rattled off all the cybersecurity names he owns, either personally or in the JOET (this writer is long CRWD), and said he believes in the space but "there's gonna be volatility."

Jim Lebenthal trimmed V and wondered "how much more can we put on the back of the consumer" (snicker).

Rob Sechan agreed with Joe that you can own CRM. Rob even said, "If you believe in Dan Ives broadening out from AI to software monetization." Judge said, "Did you have an outperform rating on Ives, is that what you're saying?" Rob said, "I love Dan Ives."

Jim said it "makes no sense" that DAL's sales forecasts for 2025 haven't budged for 9 months.

Rob said he bought BABA at the "right time," when Tepper was talking about China. Rob said he's "round-tripped it" but still thinks you can own it.

Joe called ZM one of his favorite stocks heading into 2025.

Jenny says the Dow is the ‘normal’ return this year (but she apparently hasn’t checked the AFC standings)

Friday's (12/20) Halftime Report was fairly sleepy — except when Jenny Harrington tried to explain yet again why tech stocks are gonna stop going up and why you should buy a bunch of has-been, low-P.E. stocks instead.

Jenny stated, "Almost like all of our normal clients, anyone who has any asset allocation in their portfolio, has a Dow-like return this year. You know, they're up 10%, 12%."

Judge cut in, "That's bad, relative to everything else."

Jenny said, "It's normal, Scott."

Judge said, "People don't look at that return and think it's normal, they look at it and say 'Where's our other 20% for the everything else."

Jenny insisted, "If you're up 10, 12, 13% this year, you're normal. And you know what else is up 10, 12, 13% today- this year, like all the Ivy endowments."

Judge said, "It feels like an L ... when the S&P's up 30."

Jenny said, "Across the board, if you look at what real returns are out there, they're not the S&P. ... If you're comparing yourself with S&P, and you think like, 'Oh, I'm a loser,' to your big L, you're gonna start to make really stupid decisions. And your stupid decisions right now are gonna say, 'Oh, I missed MicroStrategy, I'm gonna sell my whole portfolio ..."

Judge said, "My only point was if you're looking at the Dow as representative of really everything"-

Jenny cut in, "It's not representative of everything, but it's a normal return."

Judge continued that the Dow was down "10 straight days," and "half of the loss over those 10 days was United Health," which is why it's "not the greatest place to look as your overall market health picture."

Jenny insisted, "I'm still saying it's a representative total return number."

Jenny said if you take AVGO, TSLA and GOOGL out of the S&P, "you have a completely different return in the S&P 500." Judge said, "If you take the Chiefs and the Bills out of the NFL, you have a much different playoff picture." Jenny said, "Fine, but your sports analogies are lost on me."

Meanwhile, Stephanie Link said "it was really confusing commentary from Powell, for shore."

Kevin Simpson said he trimmed TSLA, "pure risk management." Kevin said he sold it Tuesday at the open at 470. He sold a 440 covered call expiring next Friday for $46 and was able to buy it back later in the afternoon for $20. #greatmomentsinmarkettiming

Jenny bought TRIP and made a lengthy case for it, but Stephanie suggested "patience" with this one; "their core travel business is in bad shape."

Jenny responded, "We've literally worked on it for 13 months, so that's like Step 1 of the patience."

Judge mocks Jim’s UNH buy as a ‘pick 6’

Addressing UNH to Jim Lebenthal on Thursday's (12/19) Halftime Report, Judge casually mentioned, "By the way," it's down again Thursday and "down 8%" since Jim talked of buying it last week.

"Feels like a pick-6 to me," Judge scoffed, saying it's as if Jim metaphorically was hoping to hit a receiver going deep and instead, "You laid one right out for the corner who's takin' it to the house."

"Jameis Winston style," Josh Brown added.

Jim acknowledged health care execs will be "lit up" by Congress, then said "that may or may not happen," but Jim said "this whole story is wrong," if there's a 7% denial rate, "there's 93% of claims that are approved, and a lot of those are life-saving."

Jim said this isn't going to be about tobacco companies a while back or auto execs in 2008 going to Congress. Jim stated, "I think it's absolutely a travesty that the murder of the CEO has knocked this stock down 20%."

Judge said it may be a "travesty," but the "debate" that's emerging about these companies' practices is "neither trivial nor a travesty" and is "just beginning."

Jim stressed that health insurance "is a better option than paying for it yourself." Jim said people are "basically saying" that health insurers shouldn't make a profit.

"That's not true Jim," said Steve Weiss, offering "actual facts rather than speculation," saying "what they're taking a look at is ... they have revenue cycle management companies that, what they do is, they collect on behalf of hospitals and patients for claims that were denied. ... They've taken pain out ... it's a real debate."

Josh told Jim, as far as "travesty," it's not an "act of government" that hit UNH shares, "it's people like you" who own the stock who decided to sell. Jim said sellers are outweighing buyers now because the company is in the "limelight."

Here's a debate where middle ground is the winner. Jim was too early to buy, but Judge and Weiss are mistaken to imply these current headwinds (there's always a new headwind in this space) are going on forever.

Josh Brown noted that health insurers were up Wednesday and said that's because they've been hit so hard, they're too hard to sell.

Josh sounds like he’s making the case for the original SpinCo, while Judge still won’t tell us how Mark is gonna make sure it’s ‘predator’ and not ‘prey’

Josh made the case for WBD on Thursday's (12/19) Halftime Report, saying it's "back on my radar" and explaining how David Zaslav announced a restructuring that will "take the quote-unquote bad part of the business out of the equation," which is basically the "linear TV networks," which Josh said would be packaged "into a SpinCo."

Josh said people will actually want the spinoff "because they're maximizing profitability without growth (snicker)," but the better business remains. Josh said he'll probably buy if it falls below $10.

Josh actually called MTTR "one of the worst stocks I've ever owned." It did spike in May but hasn't done much since.

Judge hectored Jim Lebenthal about CLF being a "dog." Jim protested that "if you actually do the analysis," apparently you'll find some really lucrative EBITDA that somehow should eventually get it to a $16 billion market cap (it's $5 billion now).

Judge outlined a couple football analogies, either Jim fumbling at his own 1-yard line or the opponent's 1-yard line. Jim said Al Michaels probably thinks he's the "Dieter Brock of the team."

Steve Weiss shrugged off bitcoin's slide to $98,000 and said it's a "trading tool."

Judge’s fashion comeback to Weiss didn’t really register

Judge opened Thursday's (12/19) Halftime Report saying Ed Yardeni calls the selloff a "buying opportunity," and Tom Lee is indicating the same, even possibly "back up the truck."

Josh Brown heartily agreed, saying he loves to buy dips when people are afraid that things are "too good," and while more downside can't be ruled out, "These are the types of dips you buy."

Brown said if you're "most worried about" the labor market being so strong that there won't be 3 cuts, then you have "no real problems right now." Brown said Wednesday was a big move but "not a correction."

Josh said that "what really got hit" was the Russell 2000. Judge then immediately turned to Jim Lebenthal, stating, "The small cap trade looks specious" and "does not look great."

Jim claimed "it's been back and forth all year." Jim again reiterated his point that higher rates don't really hurt small cap stocks with interest expense, rather, they create concern that higher rates "tip us into a recession," and he knows of no one calling for a recession.

Jim argued that it's "2 steps forward, 1 steps (sic) back" in this market. Josh suggested to Jim that for that "theme" to keep working, it needs "lower rates," and they won't be as low as we thought. Jim said "sure" but that he thinks the market's well-adjusted to 4½%.

Liz Young Thomas said we're entering perhaps Year 3 of a bull market, "so the chances of us having another 25 to 27% year are slim." (Actually, we wonder how Liz arrives at that. It sounds like slot-machine mentality.) Liz said we're in a "new phase" and "in-between time" where we don't know what will happen in 2025.

Steve Weiss said "yesterday was emotional" and said the market "pulled forward" some of the expected January selling. Weiss told Judge he'd describe Thursday's recovery as "actually like your wardrobe -- muted and uninspiring."

Judge responded, "Whatever I would say would pale in comparison ... to the look which (sic meant 'that') speaks for itself."

After the show was over, Tom Lee turned up on Power Lunch and indeed pronounced the selloff as "another buying opportunity." Jeff Kilburg though noted the VIX spike and said while he's got the truck "runnin'," he's "not ready to back it up yet."

At least Judge didn’t demand Jim answer his question about whether the best is behind us

Judge noted on Thursday's (12/19) Halftime Report that some momentum stocks that "rolled hard yesterday" were actually still in the red on Thursday — for all those with attention spans of zero who can't bear to see stocks down for a whole 2 days in a row.

Steve Weiss said AVGO's recent gain was "all multiple expansion."

Weiss said you want to own the megacaps, but Wednesday wasn't a big enough gift; "This is not a buying opportunity," there will be a "better" one.

Josh Brown said he wouldn't despair about MU but "wouldn't ignore it" either. Weiss said MU has great management, but great management can't always save a "commodity business." But Weiss said "now's more the time to buy it" than when it's having huge quarters.

Jim Lebenthal said he wasn't going to "minimize" VRTX's slide but he wants to "put the facts out there." Jim said "the weird thing" is that the placebo did as well as the pain drug, but this is what can happen in trials when doctors collect "subjective" data from patients. Jim said it's "not game over" and he's not selling.

Josh of courses agrees with a SHAK buy rating; it hit an all-time high earlier this month. Josh said he thinks ZM is "too cheap" and that it's using the video business to launch bigger things.

Liz Young Thomas said "we're still well above 7% in mortgage rates," which won't "encourage" transactions. Liz several times mentioned the significance of "construction unemployment (sic)" but explained when it "falls"; she either meant when "employment" falls or when "unemployment" rises.

Jeffrey Gundlach: ‘The market is clearly overbought’

On Fed day Wednesday (12/18), Jeffrey Gundlach, once again Judge's star guest of Closing Bell, suggested 2 rate cuts would be the "maximum" for 2025.

(Honestly, we're starting to wonder if there will be any. After all, Jerome Powell is all set to be Arthur Burns Part II.)

Returning to one of his favorite themes, Jeffrey stated, "The squaring of the 2-year Treasury yield and the Fed funds rate is now complete."

Jeffrey said his takeaway from the press conference is that we're "not likely to get to 2% inflation in 2025."

As for stocks? "The market is clearly overbought," Jeffrey stated.

It sounds like Jay did what Weiss said the Fed couldn’t do

In a correct call — but still a major understatement — Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (12/18) Halftime Report rather clumsily said that if we don't get a little dovishness from the Fed, "then I think positioning is in trouble."

Bill Baruch talked about Jerome Powell possibly "threading that needle" (um, that didn't happen) (this review was posted overnight Wed-Thurs) but said he's "fearful" of the Fed being either "too dovish" or "too hawkish." (The latter proved correct.)

Judge insisted they're not going to be "too dovish."

Steve Weiss doubted this will be a "hawkish cut," stating, "You can't say 'we're troubled by inflation' and still cut. That's ridiculous."

Joe and Weiss clashed over whether the market believes 4 cuts next year based on the "dot plots."

As far as rates, etc., Joe said, "I'm troubled by the homebuilders."

Weiss pounds the table for bitcoin — but wonders why anyone would buy TSLA

Steve Weiss on Wednesday's (12/18) Halftime Report said bitcoin is "purely momentum" but remains "the safest trade that I see on the board," though he conceded there could be profit-taking in January.

Judge said the "irony" is that Weiss is calling "arguably the most speculative trade within the market itself (sic last 4 words redundant)" the "safest."

Weiss said "speculation is coming to a reality" in terms of pro-crypto policies.

Weiss also assured panelists and viewers that his portfolio always has a "speculative aspect," and bitcoin is part of that.

The funny thing is, Weiss is all aboard a pure momentum trade with no use case. But he won't touch TSLA: "No way should you pay a car com- a multiple of a car company like this."

Jeffrey Gundlach on Closing Bell suggested strength in gold and bitcoin is a "harbinger of skepticism regarding the fiscal path that developed countries are on" and predicted "sideways movements" in both in the short term.

Judge fails to convince Weiss that Jensen’s next speech may kickstart NVDA

Wednesday's (12/18) Halftime Report curiously started with Bill Baruch talking about how he sold NVDA.

Bill said he last bought it at $100 (translation: He didn't take a loss) and protested that trimming it by 20% "has nothing to do with me disliking Nvidia." Bill's reason for selling was "portfolio management." He said if it finishes the week over 135, he's "very excited."

Judge told Steve Weiss that Jensen is speaking again soon. Weiss said Jensen's speeches have a "basically decreasing impact on the shares."

Judge protested that the stock has risen "quite substantially" after a couple recent Jensen speeches. Weiss conceded "you can play it" as a trading move but for holders, "the stock's traded down since those events."

Joe Terranova offered, "Last 6 months, the momentum for Nvidia is basically flat." Weiss argued, "The marginal buyer is already in there." Joe said NVDA is in a range of $10 up, $10 down.

Regarding UBER, Bill rekindles a popular expression of Pete Najarian

Judge on Wednesday's (12/18) Halftime asked Joe Terranova why PANW was down and said all CNBC could find was a price target cut on Friday, and "CrowdStrike's following suit." (This writer is long CRWD.) Joe didn't really answer the question, stating, "The momentum factor has been struggling."

Bill Baruch said he's been long TSLA and "letting it run." He said there's a "meme stock craze" in the market right now. (Well, at least there was until about 3 p.m. Wednesday afternoon.) (This review was posted overnight Wed-Thurs.)

Joe noted UBER has been falling, but, "The analyst community remains overwhelmingly bullish on Uber." Bill said "we still love the name" and said he may add more if it holds $63, but "I just don't wanna pick the bottom here."

Judge said NFLX "has been a monster" and said Morgan Stanley has upped the price target to $1,050. (This writer is long NFLX.) Steve Weiss responded by saying the same things about it he always does but said he thinks it "keeps going."

Maybe SpinCo should invest in bitcoin?

In what's becoming a bit of a broken record on the Halftime Report, Steve Weiss on Tuesday briefly joined remotely to offer the same old reasons for buying more bitcoin.

Weiss mentioned all the government tailwinds for bitcoin and said it'll go higher if Michael Saylor keeps buying it. Weiss said he still doesn't see the use case, but he's convinced that "it will keep going higher, because the momentum's going to take it there."

Judge questioned what kind of "upset" would cause bitcoin to fall. "What would that be?" Judge wondered, other than the "obvious" answer of a market pullback.

Weiss mentioned Michael Saylor buying with leverage, "potentially that's an issue," but "he's held on through, through declines." Josh Brown though suggested that the notion of how much the Trump administration is backing crypto has "gotten carried away."

The stock went up only because a lot of money went into it

Judge opened Tuesday's (12/17) sleepy Halftime Report bringing up B of A's fund manager survey (Zzzzzz), which finds "super bullish sentiment."

Josh Brown told Judge that "my mind was blown as well (snicker)" and said this reminds him of 2017, when "global synchronized growth" was heard on the show every week, according to Brown.

Judge said "American exceptionalism" seems to be the "phrase of the moment." But Kari Firestone said she's "a bit nervous" because of the "extreme" signs of bullishness; Kari said AVGO went up only "because so much money went into Broadcom."

Special guest Dubravko Lakos at Post 9 said he sees a "bit more of a broadening" next year and a chance for "laggards" to do better. Dubravko suggested the possibility of the Fed not hiking but just opening up the doors to a potential hike, at which point, "financial conditions start to tighten."

Stephanie Link told Judge, "As you know, I sold Apple because I made 40% in 4 months time." Congrats.

Josh said he's sticking with SQ and said it looks "really good" technically, though he wonders about Jack Dorsey's appearance.

Joe says bitcoin is a momentum trade like no other in his career

On Monday's (12/16) fairly quiet Halftime Report, Joe Terranova said the move in bitcoin is a "classic chase for performance" as well as "the most identifiable example of momentum I can remember in my professional (sic redundant) career on Wall Street."

Joe said if he wanted exposure to bitcoin, he would "probably turn to" the Moochmeister, Anthony Scaramucci.

Kari Firestone stated, "it's very hard for us at our firm to embrace bitcoin right now," before cautioning, "There is a lot of leverage that applies to bitcoin," which is "something we are concerned about right now."

Jim Lebenthal offered that you can make a "cogent, rational explanation" for owning Megacap Tech, not so much for bitcoin.

Amy Raskin is "underweight the Mag 7."

CLF apparently is at a 52-week low

In a curious conversation on Monday's (12/16) Halftime Report, Judge brought in Julia Boorstin to detail the rise in NFLX (this writer is long NFLX).

We were all ears. However, what Julia mentioned (live events, ad tiers and lower churn) is hardly new news and is basically mentioned every time the stock is discussed on the program, which is probably at least once a week.

Joe Terranova said the NFLX multiple is justified by the ad potential with live sports.

Meanwhile, Joe bought DOCU, DDOG and ZM. Joe said the first 2 are "trades" and the latter is more like an investment. Joe said ZM is "pivoting towards AI (snicker)."

Amy Raskin trimmed IONQ, a stock she mentioned recently that's done awesome, because ... (drum roll ... there are only 2 possible reasons) ... "just because it got to such a big percent position" (that would be Door No. 1).

Joe sold the XBI, grumbling it "hasn't worked."

Amy actually bought more AVGO. Judge tried to jab Joe about selling AVGO on Dec. 4. Joe tried to say he made 170% on it; Judge said "it's up 45% since you sold it."

Amy Raskin added to DIS, a stock which has done curiously well since the election (although Judge never mentions the correlation); Judge said Rosenblatt upped its DIS target to $135.

Jim Lebenthal said he doesn't see "any headwinds" for airline stocks.

Judge, Mel haven’t clued in viewers on Mark Lazarus’ plan to find growth at SpinCo

One of the very interesting business stories that's playing out right now is one you won't hear much about on CNBC:

The future of the channel.

Since the big news broke a month ago about CMCSA spinning off the less lucrative/desirable group of channels into their own company, we saw reports of some staff meetings.

One of the headlines was about Mr. Lazarus apparently assuring the crew at Englewood Cliffs that they'll be "predators" and not "prey."

(That's a good one for the softball team's T-shirts: The CNBC Predators.)

Honestly, about the only news of "innovation" we've seen from these stories is the same old stale corporate jargon about somehow maybe licensing daily stock market chatter to other channels (how much do NBC and MSNBC use it now) and the old standby of exec(s) saying the word "digital" about 500 times. (We haven't yet seen a story in which Mr. Lazarus says "Well the key to growth is tripling the subscribers to Jim Cramer's newsletter," but that and extending the "Shark Tank" contract seem to be CNBC's only ideas of the last decade.)

It seems like, before we hear more endless opinions about what DIS (for example) needs to do, it wouldn't hurt to hear what SpinCo should be doing in the same space.

Jim buys UNH while Aswath sells

On Friday's (12/13) Closing Bell, Aswath Damodaran told Judge he sold half of his UNH position after the incident in Manhattan. He said "there's a reckoning coming" in the space.

That was interesting, because a day earlier, on the Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal spoke of adding UNH for a trade.

Jim said he "was pretty surprised" at how much it's been down since the Manhattan incident. Jim said it's likely to make a lot of money "whether you like it or not." Jim added, "I don't believe we should be killing people if we disagree with policies."

Judge said the stock is down 12% since the shooting. However, Judge told Jim, "It feels like you're a little dismissive of the issue that has bubbled over ... of insurance company practices ... and what that could potentially mean for the long-term performance of some of these companies."

Jim said he thinks "the government's gonna get involved" and "go against United Healthcare." Josh Brown said the question is whether UNH will "proactively undergo a business model change" so as not to be the "villain" in future headlines.

Josh, Bryn express different views as to the level of interest in HOOD in sports betting

Bryn Talkington bought HOOD and said on Friday's (12/13) Halftime Report that we've seen the company "grow up" in the last couple years.

Josh Brown questioned the company's interest in gambling at the same time it's trying to be custodian for retirement accounts.

Bryn said she thinks Vlad was asked by "Andrew and Joe" about sports gambling and said "that's not what they're gonna do." Bryn predicted the retirement platform at Robinhood will be "very sticky."

‘The science had no clue what the hell they were doing during COVID’

On Friday's (12/13) Halftime Report, Josh Brown said there's a "weird dynamic" in which the stock market interprets everything that's good for TSLA as "bad for UBER."

Josh said that's a "misperception." Josh said UBER's problem is capacity, they don't have enough and want more rides on the road.

Josh called UBER a "screaming buy," and Josh and Judge agreed that Goldman's Eric Sheridan made UBER its No. 1 pick in the space with a $96 target. (This writer was long UBER for much of the year but has no position.) Josh thinks it's going to $100.

Kevin Simpson bought more CME, citing the special dividend. He also bought RTX, citing a "very low, um, price to earnings ratio." Steve Weiss bought more VRT; "You're not building data centers without these guys."

On Friday's Closing Bell, Loretta Mester said she prefers the Fed be more "data informed" rather than "data dependent."

On Fast Money, discussing RFK Jr. and vaccines, Steve Grasso stated, "Not to be political, but we were told follow the science, and the science had no clue what the hell they were doing during COVID, right. 6 feet, it was an arbitrary number. The COVID vaccine, it's gonna safeguard you, no it really doesn't safeguard you. So, that's what put a bad taste in the population." But Steve said polio is a "different beast."

Sounds like Warren sold too soon

Judge on Friday's (12/13) Halftime Report said that 12 years ago, the Mag 7 market cap was $1 trillion; today, it's $18 trillion.

Kevin Simpson's AAPL position got called away, the 10th time in 13 years that has happened.

Josh Brown pointed out that Warren Buffett "basically liquidated his position" in AAPL, "and the stock responded to that by rallying 25%."

Josh said AMZN is "clearly under accumulation" and "technically speaking ... looks as good as any stock in the S&P 500 right now."

Josh said a "huge number" of stocks have outperformed the indexes this year.

Bryn Talkington said, "I think seasonality, or the trend, is gonna definitely push through towards the inauguration."

Kevin said he got $160 for a $700 MSTR call for January 2026.

Jim irritates Judge by saying ‘Everybody stop for a second’

Early on Thursday's (12/12) Halftime Report, Jason Snipe said there's still "a lot to like" in the stock market, though expect some tax selling.

Judge quoted Barry Bannister, referring to Barry as just "Bannister," as calling the S&P "overextended" and expecting a "mid-5,000s" S&P correction.

Judge also said that BofA says the best is "probably" behind us in the stock market.

Jim Lebenthal said it "may well be true" that "the best is behind us," but it'll still be "good going forward," and so he can "get completely behind" that call.

Judge asked what Jim meant by "you say 'I could get behind that,'" and is that Jim's call.

Jim said "Yeah," that's his call, then, anticipating being cut off, stated, "Everybody stop for a second-"

Judge cut in, "No no no, I'm gonna drive the conversation."

"OK! Well then let me respond," Jim said.

"I asked you a question ... just answer the question for me, please," Judge said.

Jim pointed out that we've had "2 years in a row of 25%-plus gains" and we might only get 7-8% next year, and we might get a correction; that's fine, he said people shouldn't sell their stocks.

Jim says he hasn’t read analyst’s steel report but insists it can’t have anything new

In what could be a bit of hyperbole — or could be true — Josh Brown on Thursday's (12/12) Halftime Report said AAPL "may be the best business ever created in the history of the world."

Jim Lebenthal said he trimmed MSFT because it's a "very inviting target" as a source of funds.

Jenny Harrington claimed the Mag 7 rally is in "late stage," because, she said, "based on the multiple." Josh and Jenny sparred for a bit over Jenny's skepticism of AI, or AI multiples, or whatever.

Judge said, "The Nippon-U.S. Steel deal ain't happenin'." Jim scoffed at UBS' downgrade and first said "I haven't had a chance to read it," then said, "Really is there something new in this that we didn't know? I don't think so."

Jim said CLF is trading at a multiple "that to me says there's a lot more upside." For many years, Jim has been saying there's upside ahead for CLF; it trades currently around $10.

Stocks that peaked 2 months earlier can still have positive momentum scores, apparently

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (12/11) Halftime Report said LLY is technically broken, and he suggested that the pharma sector spent "too much of their resources during COVID and post-COVID focusing on COVID itself, not enough investing in things like GLP-1."

Judge asked Joe, if LLY "peaked in August," why didn't the JOET get rid of it in the last rebalancing.

Joe protested, "if you pull the lens back- I mean, you're asking me now a complicated question surrounding how do we measure momentum; there was still a positive momentum score on the stock itself." Joe said there's "proprietary factors" that go into momentum scores.

Judge persisted, wondering if the "momentum was gone" after August. Joe insisted, "No, the momentum was not gone after that," claiming the momentum broke down "probably around the election."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman, back from a break, said the market rally "seems like animal spirits, just, you know, kinda running amok. ... I'm long. This is really fun. It will end, I'm sure."

It was Weiss who suggested Lina might keep her job, on Nov. 15

Judge opened Wednesday's (12/11) Halftime Report asking Rob Sechan about Megacap Tech.

Rob gave a short speech about earnings growth and said "Tesla is the only Mag 7 name projected to exhibit (snicker) meaningful earnings acceleration." Rob said because the others are projected to have deceleration, you have to be "selective" in Mag 7 stocks, a point he reiterated a few minutes later.

Joe Terranova shrugged that "we play this game of trying to pick the winner." (Well, those who constantly tout active management/stock-picking on CNBC.) Joe said "I never understood the premise that you want to ignore the Mag 7 in your portfolio."

Judge protested, "Nobody was saying get out of it," just that the "tremendous level of outperformance" won't be the same next year.

Joe said the Andrew Ferguson/FTC news was "one of the catalysts" for the Mag 7 rally.

Stephanie Link told Judge, "You know I sold Apple in late August because I made 42% in 4 months." So if Judge already knew it, apparently she just wanted to let viewers know.

Judge scowled that, "Funny that someone- some even on this program were trying to argue in the last few weeks that, uh, well, you know, there's a good chance that Lina Khan's gonna stay on. We were like, Really???"

Joe said that was an "impossibility" that "never made much sense." Joe stressed that "President Trump's scorecard is the stock market and his golf handicap."

Joe noted that Donald Trump is "visiting the New York Stock Exchange tomorrow."

On UNH, Rob said he's been "slightly underweight and trimming," though it "obviously has nothing to do with the tragedy that happened and obviously the public outrage that we've seen, uh, you know, boil to a, boil to a point around this, uh, around this tragedy." (Honestly, we don't know exactly what Rob means by "outrage" and "boil" in this instance.)

Judge mentioned the Warren-Hawley idea to split PBMs from health insurers. Rob said, "I view this as very opportunistic for somebody like Elizabeth Warren to try to, try to take advantage of this at- at this time." Judge cut in that it's a "bipartisan bill" also introduced by Josh Hawley.

Joe said you can buy NFLX at its all-time high. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Joe said TRV is at its "last line of support," which is actually 235, according to Joe.

Rob said he "regrettably" increased his ADBE position in January.

Judge said COST set a "new (sic redundant) record high." Joe said "the stock is extended," and expectations are high.

Tom Lee on Closing Bell predicted stocks finish the year "very strong." And he predicted a cut in December.

Greater chance of a market 3-peat than a Chiefs 3-peat

On Kelly Evans' The Exchange on Tuesday (12/10), Andres Garcia-Amaya said it's more likely the market has an up-20% 3-peat year in 2025 than the Chiefs have a 3-peat in February 2025.

Andres said market forecasters always predict a 10-12% up year, but rarely does the market go up within that narrow range.

Andres impressively knew that there have only been 2 NFL threepeats, both by the Packers and neither completely in the Super Bowl era.

We don’t know if momentum outperformed in late 2002 or late 2008 because Judge’s crew didn’t do any research

Judge opened Tuesday's (12/10) Halftime Report "front and center" with the supposed "momentum meltdown," gravely pointing out that the JOET on Monday had its worst day in 3 months (stop the presses) and saying Wolfe is claiming "nasty action" indicating momentum is "clearly stretched" at levels seen, in the last 30 years, only in late 2002 and late 2008.

Joe Terranova said he agrees with "stretched" and also thinks things are "extended."

Joe said during late 2002 and 2008, "The entire market at that point went down," and how do we know momentum didn't outperform at those times.

Joe stressed, "I utilize (snicker) a quality factor."

Josh Brown said it's "logical" to assess why the "great companies" with momentum suddenly sold off and maybe think about buying; the "illogical" approach is to say "they're all garbage now, next."

Judge said Krinsky is warning of a "yellow light (snicker) for risk."

Jenny Harrington offered, "We know prices are up too much on things." (As always, everybody else's stocks are overpriced.) Judge said "that needs to be debated a little bit." Jenny said, "I would say" that she knows when stocks are up too much, though Jenny admitted, "Maybe I'm wrong."

Jim Lebenthal, who wasn't officially on the panel, joined remotely and advised not bailing on ORCL, though he conceded "a miss" in earnings. Judge wondered if ORCL got caught up in AI-related "froth." Jim said the answer to that is "purely subjective."

Jim claimed the ORCL forward multiple is 28; the screen graphic said it's 26.41. If it's not even certain what the multiple is, how does anyone use that as their investment guide?

Stephanie Link mentioned how much she made in FANG and META. With the former, Judge thought viewers might not've heard it, so he actually repeated it.

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso said X is "a buy on the weakness."

Faulkner, step aside: AI is going to mine 20 years of Reddit gibberish

Judge for some reason on Monday (12/9) was fascinated enough by the Morgan Stanley upgrade of RDDT to bring in Josh Brown remotely to gush yet again about the stock.

Judge said the stock hit a record high on its new AI tool. Josh gave the same speech he's already given several times, stating, "For the first time in 20 years, search is actually up for grabs."

Judge kept asking Josh about stock price and said Morgan Stanley is thinking 200 now. Josh said, "I bought it around like a hundred or something."

Josh again stressed about Reddit, "They literally have 20 years worth of user-generated information on that site." Yes, and it's all very valuable information.

Weiss actually thinks a 7,100 price target is ‘kinda troubling’

Judge opened Monday's (12/9) Halftime Report saying Oppenheimer has gone to 7,100 for 2025.

Anastasia Amoroso told Judge, "It does sound reasonable."

Steve Weiss said it's "Wall Street's version of the game Can You Top This? So, uh, it's kinda troubling actually."

Weiss said there's "broad ignorance" of what could go wrong. Judge asked for what that is. Weiss offered "what China announced today" about rare earths in "retaliation" for Donald Trump's tariff plans. (Hmmm, we didn't have China-rare-earths at the top of our market risks list.)

Jim Lebenthal admitted, "I"m more with Steve than not," but "very clearly, the rest of this month is likely to be positive," arguing "FOMO's back" and "animal spirits are in force."

Jim said year-end targets "might as well be 7,100." However, Jim said "there may be" in the first quarter a "wake-up call" (snicker) with things like tariffs.

Anastasia said the "base case scenario" for 2025 has to be equities moving higher.

Weiss returned to one of his favorite subjects, stating, "Biden had said, and other administrations, we will project- (sic) protect Taiwan. There's been no such announcement by Trump." Weiss said this position is "critical to the global economy."

Judge mentioned the "Tepper move" of stocks related to China and asked Weiss if Tepper's recent observation on Squawk Box about how China will pump more stimulus at any weakness will be correct. Weiss said "he's been involved in BABA for a while," but those comments were "before we've gotten this heightening of geopolitical risks."

Wow, someone’s getting a large baseball salary

In what should've been a rather simple and forgettable conversation, Jim Lebenthal on Monday's (12/9) Halftime Report said ORCL is a stock you want to add to after earnings on Monday.

Jim mentioned a story about 3-4 months ago that's "actually true" about Larry Ellison sitting down with Jensen Huang "at a high-end sushi bar" and saying he really needed Blackwell chips.

Judge wondered if the restaurant was "Nobu in Malibu." Judge and Steve Weiss agreed that Larry Ellison owns it.

Moments later, Judge corrected himself: "By the way, the restaurant was in Palo Alto. Nobu. Palo Alto. He owns that too."

Weiss said ORCL's "50% multiple expansion seems, uh, seem- seems kind of wild."

Meanwhile, Judge said Cowen upgraded BX to buy with a 230 target, up from 149. Weiss said he owned CG but "sold it obviously way too soon." (Honestly, we know these asset managers have done great ... we just can't get the least bit excited about them.)

Jim touted the pipeline for VRTX. Jim claimed forward P.E. is 26.

Jim suggested CASY will go higher despite the multiple (whatever it is).

Weiss bought more VRT and shrugged off the selloff; he said it's a way to play AI.

We're hoping at some point society gets to the point where it's not fascinated by large baseball salaries. #alldayonCNBC ... Weiss even calculated what Babe Ruth's lifetime earnings would be in today's dollars.

Judge cracks that players in the crypto space could afford a ‘private jet’

On Friday's (12/6) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss said he was at "my office in Chicago" when he saw Donald Trump's appointment this week to SEC chief, which gave bitcoin a boost.

Weiss said it's "not unusual" that bitcoin would pull back from $100,000, but he now sees that level as "support."

Judge said Wolfe calls bitcoin "overdone but not over." Weiss said bitcoin has "no intrinsic value."

Jenny Harrington asked Weiss if he's playing bitcoin for a "25% return." Weiss said, "Um, I don't think I have to define it," he's playing momentum, at least until "the momentum starts to ebb."

Jenny said "I don't invest for momentum," and when she invests in a stock, she wants 8-10% a year on average for 3-5 years.

Judge then brought up DOCU. Jenny hailed the gains, even if Friday's seemed kind of outsized, and said when she bought DOCU, "It was down almost 90% from its pandemic high."

That conversation got kind of interesting when Weiss cut in to tell Jenny, "We have different investment styles. You track your clients with 8-10% returns. So that's what you do-"

"That's on the dividend portfolio," Jenny cut in.

"I'm not gettin' into that, that's not the point," Weiss said. "I look for absolute performance. ... I'm there to make money regardless of where it is. You're there saying, 'I've gotta do this; I've gotta do that.' Because that's what your clients expect. Mine have a different expectation."

Jenny mentioned a client who cashed out an "enormous portfolio," including at one of the "major wirehouses," he had a combination of growth stocks, international stocks.

"What's the point?" Weiss wondered.

Jenny said the client bought bitcoin, MicroStrategy and Palantir, "100% in that," and Jenny wondered, "What does he think he's gonna get?"

Judge said, "Private jet?"

Weiss said he "could care less" (sic meant "couldn't" care less) why someone else was buying bitcoin.

‘Too many charged-up bulls’

"It's actually been Goldilocks for a while," Steve Weiss said early on Friday's (12/6) Halftime Report, claiming it doesn't matter to the market "in the least" as to whether the Fed cuts 25 points in December.

Weiss said there's a belief there's a "guardian angel looking over the market, in business, in taxes, everything, in the Trump administration," though "issues could come up next year."

Weiss said he has positions he wants to sell or trim, but he's "not doing it until January," which is OK because next year's tax changes will be "retroactive" to the start of the year.

Jenny Harrington, though, said that rather than Goldilocks, it's a "frathouse party in the market."

Jason Snipe said there's a "chase" now but he expects Q1 to be "a little bit volatile" because of "a lot of tax selling."

Judge said Ed Yardeni thinks there may be "too many charged-up bulls."

Steve Liesman said Beth Hammack sees 1 cut by the end of January and "a few" cuts by the end of 2025.

Judge and Weiss haggled over exactly what kind of position the Fed is in; Judge concluded that the Fed has "the luxury to wait" on cuts because the economy is strong, and Weiss praised that terminology.

Jenny says UBER is making enough money to invest in dubious ventures

Judge on Friday's (12/6) Halftime Report noted that UBER is down "10% since the election" and asked Jason Snipe whether he's "sweatin'" over the stock.

Jason said no, because he thinks UBER has a "tremendous network." Judge said "some say" that "the goalposts have literally moved." Jason said he's "very aware" of that perception but he's not sure that's the case.

Jenny Harrington suggested that UBER, if it wanted to, could buy its own robotaxis. Steve Weiss said the drivers with Uber currently are responsible for paying for the cars and the upkeep, and if UBER adds robotaxis, "Who's gonna pick up those costs?"

Jenny said "I'm not suggesting that Uber wants to do that. I'm suggesting they don't." Jenny said her point is that if UBER thought robotaxis was the way to go, it could enter that space. Weiss said, "I don't think it's workable right now, robotaxis." Jenny said, "OK, that's a great point."

Jason Snipe bought more NFLX. (This writer is long NFLX.) "The spread between them and the other players is only growing," Jason said. Like this page has said countless times now, we don't think it's a case of how far ahead NFLX may be from other services which are all goosing their numbers with handout subscriptions that most people never watch; it's that NFLX alone is practically a traditional cable company within itself (without the old wire-infrastructure necessities but with the ability to charge all kinds of different levels of pricing), and we doubt all the others are ever going to reach that level.

Jenny mentioned, as she always does, when META was $79. Jenny said, "We don't wanna sell it right now because the gain is HUGE. We're looking at year-end ... like everyone else, we're kicking the can on capital gains." (Oh joy ... the thrill of delaying a tax payment from 4 months to 16 months ...)

Weiss called GXO "dead money," citing stories about "rumors" about the company being up for sale that were quickly superseded by stories about the company not being sold.

When was the last time you heard ‘NFT’ on CNBC?

The Moochmeister, Anthony Scaramucci, joined Thursday's (12/5) Halftime Report panel in the 17th minute to discuss his new bitcoin book.

Anthony called the $100,000 level for bitcoin "really just the beginning." He added, "I really do see this as an asset class."

Anthony said the current administration's approach to bitcoin is a "fundamental failure by the Democrats actually."

Josh Brown said that Barry was at Anthony's book party this week. Josh wondered if Anthony couldn't have built a "bitcoin reserve" before Michael Saylor did and "beat him to the punch."

Judge observed that Anthony has "such great perspective on it because you literally lived through the turbulence of the growing-up of this asset. You, you've seen the scammers, the shysters, the phonies, the fraudsters, in many respects," as though those characters are no longer on the scene.

Anthony said, "We have to be objective about President Trump."

He also kind of praised Gary Gensler. "Weirdly he helped the industry, because he cleaned out a lot of the dregs in the industry, if you will," Anthony said.

Anthony indicated that anyone who studies crypto will be hooked. He mentioned Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller and stated, "I know very few people that have done the homework Scott and then say 'Oh no, bitcoin's not for me.'" (Evidently, Buffett/Munger haven't done enough homework.)

Bill explains how to handle those stocks that actually go higher

On Thursday's (12/5) Halftime Report, expressing the No. 1 Problem For Halftime Report Panelists, which is having a position grow too large (No. 2 is paying the taxes on big capital gains), Bill Baruch explained that TSLA has become a "big position" in his portfolio but they've tried to manage it and "keep it outside the top 5" holdings because it "trades like a commodity." (A better way to say it is to buy whenever Weiss talks about how he's going to short it.)

Bill said the Nasdaq "officially" broke out a day earlier and that it hadn't even been above its July high. But now, Big Tech names are "setting record highs" like "dominoes."

Bill bought WDAY, which he said is shifting to a "big focus on profitability." Bill also bought ORCL; Josh Brown had bought that one under $100, but Josh lamented on Thursday that he "sold it way too soon."

Liz Young Thomas opened the show saying she thinks we "keep going for a while," even though strategists have "more muted" expectations (tip: their expectations are always muted) for 2025.

"Nobody wants to get off the ride" when it's one like this, Josh Brown said.

Josh scoffed at the description of "Trump bump" for this rally, rather, it's because "earnings expectations were too low for the quarter that was just announced."

Josh says he’s not as cynical as Kara Swisher

Josh Brown, as he always does, downplayed on Thursday's (12/5) Halftime Report the day's decline in UBER's share price, suggesting it's not related to Waymo expansion but word of FTC interest in subscription cancellation policies.

However, Brown said that's just "one more inquiry" by this administration, and, "Over the last couple years, every time you've sold on some sort of a regulatory action headline related to Uber, it's been the wrong decision."

Addressing the Jeff Bezos interview (see below), Josh said he heard Kara Swisher say, "Well Jeff just wants a space contract," but Josh isn't "as cynical as she is," rather Josh thinks Jeff is "looking at the state of regulation" and seeing things that "could potentially get done."

Josh asserted that AMZN is "on the way to 250."

Judge asserted that "tech has felt undeniably under pressure and under attack under the current administration."

Liz Young Thomas said we won't know until "midyear at best on some of this regulatory stuff."

One thing about the Bezos interview; they didn’t run any ads, so nothing for Peacock and the theme parks. #SpinCo

In recent days, a few Halftime Report panelists have mentioned obscure stocks.

Thursday (12/5), Bill Baruch said he bought CDE, which we'd never heard of before, but it reminded us of the inaugural glory days of Fast Money when Eric Bolling & Co. were tripping over each other to pick commodity stocks every day.

Bill said CDE is "headquartered in Chicago," and it bought a Mexico interest, but 60% of their mining is in the U.S., and, in the important part of the commentary, he thinks miners will outperform what Bill sees as the "upside in gold and silver."

Judge has hardly spent any time on gold in years, despite the fact it's had a great year, and really has an impressive chart since 2016.

Liz Young Thomas offered, "I like gold here," contending "the buyer of gold is different than the buyer of crypto," so she's not sure that crypto and gold are actually competitors.

The funny thing about that, a couple hours later on Closing Bell, assessing crypto and the gain in COIN since Halloween, Joe Terranova said, "This is momentum at its best" but observed that "we don't value tangible assets anymore," rather, we're into intangible assets like AI and bitcoin.

Meanwhile, on Halftime, Bill's Final Trade was bitcoin-related, the IBIT.

Bill said he used the selloff in ABBV to "increase our exposure."

Josh Brown actually made the case for JCI, saying the sector is "starting to front-run" a turn in the fundamentals. Josh also touted FERG; "probably first time ever being talked about on CNBC." He also said NET is experiencing a "breakout in progress."

Jeff Bezos: ‘You’re going to solve the problem of the national debt by making it a smaller percentage of GDP ... by growing the GDP’

The Fast Money panel on Wednesday (12/4) was needlessly full-staffed even though CNBC basically showed the excellent Sorkin-Bezos DealBook interview for the entire hour.

Sorkin's questions started off with the lack of a WaPo endorsement; that was understandable, but it nearly hopelessly bogged down the interview as Bezos said nothing different about this subject than what he has already stated.

Jeff's most interesting comments were about how national debt will only be solved by "outgrowing" it with GDP, and how he's "super optimistic" about Donald Trump's pending presidency or at least Trump's approach to regulation.

"He is calmer than he was the first time," Bezos said.

Sorkin pointed out that Donald Trump considers the press an enemy. (Trump actually doesn't consider the press, at least all of it, as his enemy, but whatever.) "I'm gonna try to talk him out of that idea," Bezos said.

Jeff said he takes Elon's assertions "at face value" that Elon won't try to use Elon's influence in government to hurt competitors. Jeff said only very rarely in a couple instances has not being cynical led to a problem. See our home page for a little more.

Judge suggests Mar-a-Lago visits are boosting stock prices

The signature statement of Wednesday's (12/4) Halftime Report came shortly into the program when Judge said he's not predicting another 30% year in tech stocks, but you have to look at CEO meetings with Donald Trump and notice "where the puck continues to go, and the rink, if you will, continues to get longer."

Judge said META is "up 7% alone since Zuckerberg went to Mar-a-Lago to have dinner with the president-elect."

Joe Terranova said that in the Mag 7, "it is clearly, clearly, Tesla and Amazon right now."

Kevin Simpson wasn't on the panel but joined remotely to say he's bought more META; he doesn't think it's overvalued "by any means."

The big earnings report of the day was CRM. Joe said you want to be in software and semis, "it's clear from SalesForce's report that AI is having a beneficial impact on earnings and lifting the valuations of these stocks."

Sarat Sethi bought CRM 2 months ago and said money is "not flowing to consumer staples or health care." He said he "wouldn't take a full position" in CRM today, but "I would definitely nibble into it today."

Shannon Saccocia agreed with Joe that you can own "both" semis and software and don't have to pick between the two.

Joe told Judge that his selling of AVGO "is not an indication that I'm seeing a deterioration" in quality or momentum.

Judge brought up APP around the 21st minute and noted it's in the JOET. Joe credited "the strategy" for buying it. Joe said if he owned it personally, he'd have a "trailing stop."

Bryn Talkington said RBLX "clearly refuted" Hindenburg's "financial claims" and has put in "meaningful levers" for parents to keep tabs on kids' activity.

On Closing Bell, "I think there's still gas in the tank," Tony Pasquariello told Judge, "into the start of next year."

NKE has a ‘stale lineup’ (at least in this footwear conversation, we didn’t have to hear Weiss jab at whatever shoes Jim’s got)

Judge on Wednesday's (12/4) Halftime Report pointed out that bitcoin remains on the doorstep of $100,000. But Bryn Talkington said that in the crypto space, "There's a tremendous amount of leverage," which Bryn thinks is "exuberant."

Bryn pointed out that HOOD has "just a fraction" of assets under management as Schwab and Fidelity have. But Bryn said HOOD is an "interesting name to watch" as it grows past the game-ification that some have associated it with. Joe Terranova said HOOD is "growing up right before our eyes."

Bryn said she thinks people have had a pairs trade going of long TSLA/short UBER, and Bryn likes UBER and thinks that pairs trade no longer "makes sense." Joe said he expects UBER momentum to "restart" but not until February. Sarat Sethi cautioned about "regulatory risk" for UBER.

Joe said he thinks APO will get to 188 and praised the space. Sarat practically gushed about the "whole sector" having a "huge amount of tailwind behind it."

Joe said FL needs "complete change in the strategy" and he thinks it's "primed for some form of activism." Joe said there are "secular challenges" for FL that affect NKE. Bryn said she agrees with Joe that there are "secular headwinds" but the space is also "incredibly cyclical" and you have to "time these trades right."

Judge pressed Bryn on NKE's "lack of innovation." Bryn said "innovation" isn't the problem; Judge insisted it's "part of the story." Bryn shrugged that NKE just has a "stale lineup."

Jim claimed on Sept. 6 that hot-rolled steel prices appeared to have ‘bottomed’; doesn’t seem like that was the case

Rather skeptically, Judge asked Jim Lebenthal on Tuesday's (12/3) Halftime Report, "Did you sell Cleveland-Cliffs yet," because if it's down (it was actually unch or up pennies when Judge spoke) when Trump announced he'll block the U.S. Steel deal, what makes Jim think it'll go up.

Jim said he hasn't sold and said he'd be "very surprised" if CLF bought "all of U.S. Steel," which apparently was Jim's way of saying that Donald Trump blocking the Nippon takeover of X probably shouldn't affect CLF's share price.

Jim asserted that it's a "long-term holding." Judge concluded that Jim is "never selling" and that Jim "trapped" himself with his comments.

"I'm not gonna give in" to Judge's "making fun of me," Jim declared, while he said Judge was "busting chops."

During this conversation, Jim told Josh Brown it wasn't Brown's turn to talk. Judge made an "our time" joke from "Fast Times," which was good, then explained it to everyone, which was weak (it wasn't clear whether Jim knew where that quote was from or not).

A lot of people are fascinated by the TGT-WMT spread (a/k/a Reversion to Mean trades are back)

Early into Tuesday's (12/3) Halftime Report, Judge said at least 2 or 3 times, "I don't remember a day in which we had this many moves from this many people (snicker)."

Well, most of those moves amounted to trimming some stocks that the panelists kept defending anyway.

Judge started by asking Josh Brown about buying SBUX. Josh thought, of course, the technical setup was good, "so I entered the trade (snicker)."

Josh cut in to the follow-up conversation to add "how great of a setup this is for both traders and investors," and he said that the RSI says "it's not yet overbought."

Josh also trimmed GOOGL, saying it's "unclear" how it will fare against "more competition AI." Jim Lebenthal though said he's "not trimming it," because he thinks the "competitive pressures" are already in the stock.

Josh Brown and Brian Belski each bought more AMZN.

Belski trimmed LLY; his shop just isn't "as overweight as we were" (ba dum bum). He bought AMD, C (snicker) and ONON, and he has "started to nibble" on TSLA. (At the end of the show, Jim made ONON his Final Trade.)

Judge said Elon's "proximity to power" is "even more, uh, elevated than some had thought it would be."

Belski said he bought TGT and threw in an "oh by the way," it's the "widest spread ever" between TGT and WMT.

Stephanie Link sold LRCX because of the "overhang with China" and used the proceeds to buy more GPS, as well as CRWD (this writer is long CRWD), citing her favorite metric: "It's still down from its highs about 7%."

Josh Brown hung a "triple digits" on SQ, though he's got a stop and isn't "wildly bullish" on the name.

Jim said AAPL has been going up only because there's been new money coming into the market; it's "simply passive flows."

Josh Brown was allowed to give a speech at the end about using stop losses and rolling them higher "as the trade continues to work."

Ah. It’s better to lose money in INTC than make money because now the taxes can be reduced.

On Monday's (12/2) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova actually said with a straight face, "The biggest disappointment in 2024, without question, is Alphabet. I think coming into 2024, everyone said, this is the year that Alphabet is finally going to catch up in terms of performance relative to its peers."

Judge, to his credit, wondered as we did, "Is this the year that everybody said that? ... I think it was the exact opposite."

Steve Weiss and Judge agreed that Brad Gerstner and others entered the year calling Alphabet a "loser."

Meanwhile, Jenny Harrington dialed in to say she found an excuse to sell INTC. Jenny said she's realized "huge capital gains this year" in other stocks and said "huge" twice and said INTC is a "tax loss harvest" that's "not unwelcome."

Joe said fundamental investors won't like it, but he claimed, "The market is becoming so much more oriented towards technicals and algorithms."

Nobody (at least not here) wants to be a downer on movie theaters. But hearing about how something broke a "Grease" financial record that occurred in 1978 gets a little old. On Fast Money, Melissa Lee got Julia Boorstin to admit that movie theater ticket sales are not adjusted for inflation. But Julia insisted on adding, "I think what's really important here" is that "popcorn sales" go up along with ticket prices.

The death of Art Cashin (who's in the photo in the upper right corner of this page) was reported in between Halftime Report and Fast Money, on Closing Bell and Closing Bell Overtime; for more details, see our home page.

Is Musk’s election spending the best investment ever?

Bryn Talkington on Monday's (12/2) Halftime Report said the "halo" between Donald Trump and Elon Musk will "continue until it doesn't."

In an interesting observation, Steve Weiss mentioned the "return" Musk got from his donations toward Trump's election in terms of how well TSLA has done since; Judge called it "the greatest ROI ever."

That's a fair statement and may well be accurate, especially when looking at TSLA's 2024 chart. However, it's fair to entertain the idea that even if Musk stayed out of politics completely, the election and his stock chart would've gone the same way regardless.

Weiss recalled way back in the year when he sparred with Bryn over his TSLA short; he claimed he "won for about 2 seconds" before that trade started to not work.

It’s apparently time to stock-pick (even though Weiss says 75% of you will come up short)

At one point on Monday's (12/2) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss stated, "It's never really easy doing this; otherwise a lot more people would be doing well. And they don't. It's 75% of managers underperforming the index every year, and it's not always the same 75%."

Evidently, that means people aren't doing a good enough job stock-picking, because on Fast Money, Savita, who sat in as a panelist for the whole program, said this is one of the "biggest years" of changes in the C-suite, and "I feel like this is telling us that we're moving into a stock-picker's market."

So despite Weiss' comment, Fast Money put text on the bottom of the screen as Savita spoke that said "SUBRAMANIAN: BUY STOCKS, NOT INDEX."

Savita claimed "The U.S. has underinvested in its own infrastructure for more than 10 years, right. Stuff is old in the U.S., and it's starting to break." That's interesting, because we're not sure we've ever once heard someone on TV — ever — claim that the U.S. has spent plenty on infrastructure.

Savita was asked to address her recent 6,666 S&P call for 2025. Savita said, while it may seem like everyone's bullish, "The truth is, there is euphoria in one specific pocket of the market, and that is megacap tech."

Someone actually had to be ‘bullied’ into selling GM

Monday's (12/2) Halftime Report had trouble getting rolling, as Joe Terranova started off with the 10-year (Zzzzzzzz).

Joe said that 1 year ago, "a 10-year Treasury was 4.20," so in terms of Treasurys, we've just had a "roller coaster ride to basically nowhere."

Judge likened the 10-year chart to a football player who runs sideways back and forth across the field and it ends up "a long run to nowhere."

Assessing the economy, Grandpa Steve Weiss said "we're still warped by the freebies from the government that keep replenishing that consumer and business pocketbook with these gimmes."

Bryn Talkington observed, "It definitely feels like we have some YOLO, uh, in the market." Bryn said she expects to see "more broadening," but she expects to see "tech continue to outperform."

Jim Lebenthal, who had a quiet show, bought more IJR; Jim said "the rally's likely to continue," though he laments, "I got kinda bullied out of General Motors; I'm not happy about it, but the facts on the ground changed."

Joe claimed, "You can find opportunities in the totality of the equity market." Jim pointed out that NVDA is not currently leading the market, rather, the semi trade "seems to be broadening."

Steve Liesman said there's a 63% chance of a December rate cut. Joe claimed "it's 50/50 right now," while Judge clarified, "it's 60/40 actually."

Weiss said he doesn't want to chase momentum in small caps. Weiss said the valuation (uh oh) of META is "dead on" with that of DE. Jim said the market is looking through DE's trough, and Jim said he doesn't want to argue with Weiss over which stock(s) to pick in this instance because it doesn't have to be an argument.

Back to CNBCfix home