CNBCfix - Fast Money Review

Courtney is guest host, fortunately doesn’t have to hear Weiss say THERE’S SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS MARKET, EVEN TEPPER DOESN’T KNOW!!!!

Kate Rooney, in San Francisco, had the day's star guests on Tuesday's (11/19) Halftime Report, Vlad Tenev and Robb Baldwin, to discuss the Robinhood-TradePMR deal. Maybe the most interesting comment was Tenev's observation that RIAs have this "constant fear that their custodian is gonna try to take their account."

Meanwhile, Jason Snipe said "clearly" there's been a Trump trade that's done well, though it's "waned some" in the past week.

Jim Lebenthal shrugged off the last week's worth of trading that has been rather choppy. "This is just the pause that refreshes," Jim stated.

Jim said it's "uncomfortable" to say, but "Russia vs. Ukraine is not the story" of the financial markets.

Jim said "FOMO applies again."

Josh Brown gave a speech about earnings growth, for some reason. "Interest rates are coming down, earnings are rising, you want to be in stocks," Josh concluded.

Josh said APD has an "unbelievable" chart and advised viewers, "Don't bottom fish."

Josh, whose mike wasn't always screwed in tightly enough, brought up the old saw about how you have to take Donald Trump "seriously" but not "literally."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman revealed she watched the women's boxing undercard on the Mike Tyson fight and found it "kinda crazy." (This writer is long NFLX.) Karen said, "I'm long Netflix, I sold some calls against it, which turned out to be a terrible sale ... The valuation is very stretched, but I love their competitive position."

Steve Grasso said, "The biggest takeaway for me is they didn't charge you for the fight." Steve then said something this page has said for months or more: "This is becoming your cable."

Joe tells his friend to keep holding a stock that Joe doesn’t want to own

Judge on Monday's (11/18) Halftime Report said TSLA is up "something like" 37% since Election Day, which Judge called "just unbelievable."

Judge said Monday's news is that the new administration "wants to relax self-driving car rules." Judge noted UBER is down and asked Brian Belski about the stock. Belski referenced UBER being in the "industrials" sector (that's something people on the show like to mention) and he'd be looking to add because "this too shall pass."

Joe Terranova, though, claimed that what to do with UBER is a "hard conversation to have" (snicker) because maybe viewers can't be as "tactical" as pros (snicker) can be.

Joe related that he owned UBER "since the mid-30s" and sold at "73.50." Joe said "a personal friend of mine" who's not in finance texted him at the time, "omigod, you sold Tesla (sic meant Uber; Judge didn't correct)"; Joe said he told the friend, "You stay in it," because long-term investors should be "anchored" (snicker) in the name.

But Joe said "you can be tactical" and trade it; he said he's not ready to buy it back yet.

Quick, name the current HHS secretary

Initially, during Monday's (11/18) Halftime Report, we dreaded the thought of Steve Weiss reprising his ridiculous omigod-market-uncertainty-just-because-of-RFK-Jr. argument of last week and were prepared to tune out.

Fortunately, Monday's version never got that bad, though Belski did get dragged into it.

Judge opened by noting what markets did right after the election and the fact that "last week it sorta turned around"; Judge wonders "what that means" (snicker).

Joe Terranova said we could point "automatically" to Powell commentary, but the market seeemed "due" for "corrective type behavior."

Joe stressed that semis are one of the areas "down the most since the election." Judge said Tony Pasquariello says there's "gas in the tank" for the market.

Weiss said he was talking with Brian Belski, and Weiss actually claimed with a straight face, "There's more uncertainty in the market now than we could ever recall in our careers (snicker)."

As for why there's supposedly all this uncertainty, Weiss cited "taking costs out of the government" and Lina Khan's "legacy" (snicker).

Belski affirmed he's "very bullish" into year-end and his 6,100 target, and he's already "talking about a 6,700 target" next year.

Belski said we haven't had "normalization" since 2007; Judge wondered, "What if we're not going back to what you think is, is normalization." Belski responded by defining "high quality" and stated, "I'm not going to let politics take over what I'm saying from an investment strategy standpoint. I never have. And I never will." Good for Belski.

Belski actually claimed with a straight face that his market outlook would "probably not" be different even if the election had a different outcome; rather, Belski claimed "the train has left the station" in terms of monetary policy becoming "more loose."

Shannon Saccocia said that if people expected stocks to take "kind of a straight line to the top," then that's "a bit naive."

Judge said Josh Brown (who wasn't on Monday's show) "put it well" when he suggested Donald Trump cares most about the 2 scorecards for golf and stock markets. Grandpa Weiss claimed, "I disagree with that by the way. He glommed onto the stock market one because it was working. If the stock market were down, he'd blame somebody else and say 'that doesn't matter.'"

Judge protested, "He cares about what the markets do ... c'mon."

Weiss said, "My point is, is that that's not gonna be his focus ... we don't have to get into that."

Josh is more right than Weiss — the stock market definitely is a Trump scorecard. But Weiss is correct that if the market stank for a couple years, you'd never hear a word about it from Donald Trump.

Moments later, Joe suggested "the regulatory environment" is a factor in market outlook; Belski admitted, "I don't disagree with that."

The use case for bitcoin apparently is ‘people putting money into it, pulling money out of it’

On Monday's (11/18) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova called NFLX's Mike Tyson event a "fight"; Judge questioned if that's the right term. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Joe also mentioned, as everyone is doing these days, the Christmas Day football games. Judge asked how much is already in the stock. Joe said, "I think the- what's not in the stock is the continued opportunity for Neflix to continue (sic double 'continue') to participate in live events."

Steve Weiss said NFLX has "such pricing power" and "scarcity." Weiss said it's "very reasonably priced."

Weiss also claimed crypto is actually "one of the safest areas to invest in under Trump."

Joe shrugged off the PLTR pullback, "it was added to the ETF in the teens for us." Joe conceded it's "overbought on a technical basis."

GLD chieftain George Milling Stanley told Bob Pisani that when the GLD was launched 20 years ago, "investment was about 10% of final end-user demand, with jewelry a full 80%." Now, he said, jewelry is down to "about 50%, maybe even less," and investment is 10-25, 30, even 45% nowadays.

Judge said the JOET is 4 years old as of Monday; "Happy birthday to the JOET," Judge said.

Twice in a week, Judge claims a panelist said something that they didn’t actually say

Hoo boy.

Generally when Judge pushes back against a panelist's call on the Halftime Report, we side with Judge, because in general, the calls deserve pushback if not outright fact-checking, and too often, Judge takes a pass.

But transcribing Judge's conversation with Steve Weiss on Friday (11/15) took us literally days, and even though Judge was mostly right, by the end, we were kind of wishing Judge had taken a pass again.

Weiss wondered about market uncertainty over the new administration. "What if Lina Khan stays" and said we have to "read his mind; I- I can't," Weiss admitted.

Judge asserted that "there's no reason to read his mind," just "Read the- read the room! Read the room!" Judge continued, "The room is that there is going to be, animal spirits are going to be unleashed. particularly when it comes to M&A and the ability of companies to do deals again."

"I'm reading the room. And I don't know what room you're reading," Weiss countered.

"What are you talkin' about? What are you talkin' about?" Judge demanded.

"What do you mean, what am I talking about? Do you think anything's clear about what's going to happen in the future? I don't," Weiss said, adding, "You've got a guy who won on a populist record, not on a big company record, right?"

"He won on the same things that he won the last time on," Judge said.

"That's absolutely not true. That's not true," Weiss said, explaining, "What he won on is saying, your individual lifes (sic that's how he pronounced it) will be better. It will cost you less. It doesn't cost you less if you merge companies. Do you think anybody's paying less for an airline ticket than they paid 20 years ago?"

"You think that there's like the chance of less M&A under, under Trump than there was under Biden?? Really???" Judge asked.

"Yeah!" Weiss said, as Judge actually chortled.

"You can laugh, and that's fine ... I'll be serious," Weiss said, arguing we don't know "where are rates going."

"There's so much pent-up demand to do deals, it's inevitable," Judge said.

"They still have to make economic sense!" Weiss countered, arguing "Rates aren't gonna stay where they are."

Judge said Weiss has made the argument "for as long as we've known each other on this program" that "rates and stocks can go up together."

Honestly, we were scratching our heads at that one and wondering what show Judge has been watching. Some people have regularly made that statement — we think Josh Brown being the most common — and probably everyone has said it at one point. It's certainly not a regular Weiss slogan from the time he started on the program. (He's got other slogans that are worse, but that's for another time.)

Weiss told Judge, "I think you're thinking of a different person."

"No, I'm thinking of you. I'm thinking of you," Judge somehow insisted.

"They can on occasion, but that's not law," Weiss said.

Judge eventually sighed, "That's fine, just stay with the argument that you made — there's gonna be fewer deals under Trump than there was under Biden."

"I didn't say that — you said that," Weiss said.

"You did! No, I posed you the question, and you said yes!," Judge wrongly claimed; Weiss said yes there's a "chance" of fewer deals, not that there's definitely "gonna be."

"And I'm saying, I don't know!" Weiss continued.

Judge said investors of a "certain level" and "every senior banking executive that I've spoken with is beyond optimistic about dealmaking."

Weiss insisted that's "dated" information; "it was before he nominated Kennedy" and the chief of the "D.O.D."

Josh Brown shrugged off Cabinet picks as a factor in investing, stating, "We had these bouts with uncertainty about appointees on- in the first Trump administration ... these Cabinet appointments can be musical chairs."

Brown added, "There's only 2 scores Trump cares about — his golf score, and the stock market. He's fixated on the stock market."

Weiss, though, continued, "It is different than last time," explaining that last time, Trump based picks on "competency" (snicker), and now it's "purely" about "loyalty."

"These are not Supreme Court justices Steve!" Brown cut in.

"Do you call the secretary of Health and Human Services before you buy the company?" Judge demanded of Weiss.

"No. But, I don't understand the question. What's the question? What's the question?" Weiss asked.

"Whatever," Judge sighed.

"What's the question?" Weiss persisted.

Judge said he doesn't want to "belabor this any more" and moved on to NVDA. Josh said he thinks you're probably OK in NVDA but "even with good news," the stock occasionally has had "really short, really sharp drawdowns that can shake people." Weiss said he doesn't care about NVDA's earnings, the stock is "one to own," but the ride will be "rocky."

Weiss admitted that despite his concerns about the administration, "I'm hedged quite a bit but I'm not selling."

So, basically ... sigh ... trying to do a scorecard here ... Judge was certainly right to challenge Weiss' ridiculous argument that maybe there should be the opposite of animal spirits regarding the new administration once the RFK Jr. appointment was announced, but Judge's misquoting of Weiss on dealmaking, like his bungled claim (also this week, see below) of Jim Lebenthal supposedly stating there are and aren't monoliths when Jim didn't say the former, suggests Judge should be paying a little more attention to what his panelists are actually saying.

Judge seems to think Jenny’s health-care positioning doesn’t match her rhetoric about Donald Trump’s Cabinet

Yet another presidential Cabinet scrap took place on Friday's (11/15) Halftime Report that began when Jenny Harrington suggested that when she's "reading the room," she's seeing that "chaos (snicker) is coming."

Seconds later, Jenny said rates may be rising because people think "chaos is coming."

Judge correctly cut in, "If people thought that chaos was coming to the United States, people would be buying Treasurys and rates would be moving in the opposite direction."

A little later, Jenny stated of the new government, "I think we're all expecting the same, personality conflicts, arguments, like, petty, you know, petty beefs."

That got the attention of Judge, who asked Jenny, "You're making your investment decisions based on petty arguments and personality clashes?"

Jenny demanded a chance to answer and said, "No! But it's going to create opportunities."

Moments later, after some unrelated discussion, Jenny said she originally bought AXP for $123. (If that helps people now.) Judge told Jenny it's "interesting" that AXP is up 80% this year and Jenny trimmed it, while PFE and GSK are down and Jenny has "genuine concerns" about the Department of Health and Human Services but "you'll stick with those."

Jenny wondered, "Are we allowed to talk about genuine concerns about Health and Human Services now, you wanna go there?"

Judge said he finds it "curious" that she trimmed the winner but is hanging on to the doormats.

"I didn't say that I had genuine concerns with Health and Human Services. What I said is that there's gonna be a lot of volatility in the perception around what's going on there," Jenny said, adding, "Who knows" if RFK Jr. is confirmed, but the stocks got "slapped," so "why would I sell those today?"

Judge said Jenny was talking about "all the chaos that was going to ensue."

Kevin Simpson makes a bad trade sound like a simple 5th-grade math assignment

Judge on Friday's (11/15) Halftime Report brought up the Mike Tyson fight set for later Friday on NFLX. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Steve Weiss said he was going to watch the fight. Weiss said he would "definitely buy" the stock, if he didn't have a significant position, even at Friday's level, and would keep some dry powder to buy more if it goes lower.

Josh Brown said "this is really the final frontier for Netflix," though Brown was not expecting "a great boxing match" but more of a "spectacle." (It sounds like the spectacle was the quality of the streaming, actually.) (This review was posted Saturday 11/16; the fight wasn't shown at CNBCfix HQ.)

Brown suggested NFLX is "the most profitable utility in the United States. Nobody turns it off."

Meanwhile, Kevin Simpson joined remotely to say he sold MPWR (Judge likes talking about anything that's a "Monolith" these days). Kevin said he's "implementing a stop loss" but "wound up losing about 30% on the name" but said there's "no emotion" (snicker) to the trade and "it's just a math equation." (We're not quite sure how it qualifies as an "equation," but whatever.)

Kevin said he added COIN at 280.

Steve Weiss said bitcoin is actually his "favorite investment" right now because he knows what the "fundamentals will be and can be."

"The chips look like a mess right now," Josh said at the top of the show.

Santoli said Berkshire added DPZ and POOL while selling ULTA. Judge wondered whether the moves are being "led by the lieutenants."

Josh claims the use case for bitcoin is ‘people putting money into it, pulling money out of it’

On Thursday's (11/4) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss revealed he bought bitcoin and GBTC and again said these trades are not what he thinks about it (which is that it's useless), "it's what the administration believes."

Judge asked for the "use case" for bitcoin. Josh Brown offered, "It's people putting money into it, pulling money out of it, using it to buy other coins. ... That's it (snicker)."

Weiss said "that's being very liberal with the term 'use case.' There is no use case."

Jim and Josh claim DIS is ‘out of the woods’ on streaming profitability without mentioning NFLX is worth twice as much

Jim Lebenthal, who wasn't on Thursday's (11/14) Halftime Report panel, dialed in to say DIS had a "great quarter." (If we remember right, DIS had a remarkably great quarter just before the Nelson Peltz vote too.)

Jim said "I think it's going higher from here (sic last 2 words redundant)," and honestly, has Jim ever NOT predicted, in a dozen years on the Halftime Report, that DIS will go higher?

Jim actually claimed streaming is a "high, high margin (snicker) business" and got no pushback from Judge. If streaming is so high margin, why is everyone getting out of it?

Josh Brown first called Disney's streaming the "direct to consumer segment (snicker)" and explained that "we were hearing everywhere last year, streaming's a bad business, it's a bad business. But, turns out it's not so bad when you have some consolidation and you have some companies basically give up."

Perhaps. It doesn't mean that DIS has created any show that people are dying to see, that will prompt people to pay more than the 3-months-free-then-$6.99 rate that Disney and others hook people with when they buy totally unrelated products and then boast about their subscriber "growth."

Josh and Jim somehow agreed DIS is "out of the woods" on streaming profitability.

Jim claimed "it doesn't cost them more as they add 4 million subscribers." How is that a growth argument. The same is true for movie theaters, airlines, cruise ships and hotels.

Judge doesn’t ask Jim about stock ‘monoliths’ this time

Josh Brown on Thursday's (11/14) Halftime Report said if he had to choose, stocks are more likely to go higher than lower into year-end. However, Brown pointed to how RSI works and stated, "A lot of stocks have already done the year-end melt-up; they've just pulled it forward," Brown conceded.

Grandpa Steve Weiss said today's market is different "than what we grew up with."

(Grandpa Weiss didn't mention, as Guy Adami did on Fast Money, that MRNA hit a 52-week low.)

Josh said stocks like APP are in its "own world."

Josh touted ODFL as a "stock that hasn't been discovered yet."

Josh said TEAM is in a breakout.

AMZN hit a record intraday high; Josh Brown gave a speech about AMZN playing "offense." Jason Snipe pointed out that there was a "top-line miss" in the previous earnings report, which seems "2 years ago."

Jim Lebenthal, who wasn't on the panel but dialed in for DIS, said "profit taking" was behind the CSCO selloff. (And every time one of Jim's stocks sells off on earnings, it's always some kind of overreaction and the stock's still a buy.)

Judge went to Phil LeBeau on breaking news about the Trump administration perhaps getting rid of the $7,500 EV buyer's credit. Phil stressed that TSLA is eyeing robotaxis more than its annual EV sales. (Honestly, we're not sure why they would ... but whatever.)

Steve Weiss pointed out that Waymo is "charging the same fees as Uber drivers" even though Waymo has to pay for insurance, gas, etc.

Weiss predicted Lina is "not going to be" in the same FTC role in the Trump administration, though it was acknowledged that there's a populist tone to the Trump campaign.

Judge’s complaint that Jim is having it both ways on monoliths makes no sense

Shortly into Wednesday's (11/13) Halftime Report, Judge chuckled that MSFT looks "weak" being up only 2% since the election (which was barely a week ago).

Jim Lebenthal said he trimmed MSFT and said the Mag 7 isn't leading, and, in a comment that for whatever strange reason resonated with Judge (who repeated it wrongly), also said that the Mag 7 "should no longer be looked at as a monolith that moves together."

Jim suggested that for MSFT, the AI angle is "all priced in."

Judge then claimed that while Jim said the Mag 7 is not a "monolith," Jim "spoke of them as the monolith when you say 'Well, AI's all priced in.' ... Maybe it's priced in for Microsoft, but there are many suggestions that it's not priced in even to Nvidia. ... So you can't have it both ways. If it's not gonna trade like a monolith, then don't refer to everything as a monolith in terms of what's priced in and what's not."

Well, um ... Jim didn't refer to everything as a monolith; he said exactly the opposite. All he said about MSFT/AI was that he thinks the AI upside for MSFT is indeed priced in. He never said anything about NVDA's upside.

"Let me be clear — I don't think they're a monolith," Jim told Judge. Judge eventually demanded, "Let's talk apples and apples (snicker)" (first let's make a better argument). Jim said he's not trimming NVDA nor Alphabet (this writer is long GOOGL).

Later on in the show, in the theme of the day, Joe Terranova mentioned Monolithic Power (snicker).

Laura Martin: ‘I would love Netflix to buy Disney’

Joe Terranova opened Wednesday's (11/13) Halftime Report stating "Momentum is absolutely in control of this market."

Judge said financials are up "low to mid-double-digit percentage points since Election Day" and asked Jim Lebenthal if people should keep buying these monolithic names them.

Jim said, "Yes," then said he "detected a tone of 'trees don't grow to the sky'" from Judge's question. Jim continued that it's true trees don't grow to the sky, however, Jim thinks the financial sector still "has a lot of momentum."

Jim said ADBE's recovery is "just beginning."

Joe talked about how much ZM is up recently. Joe talked up BILL and mentioned buying TWLO again. Joe said he bought 95 calls in TWLO and already sold at a profit.

Joe advised not chasing SPOT. Jim said of CSCO, "If they miss, this thing's comin' down hard," though he doesn't expect a miss.

Jim noted that DIS has been creeping upward recently. Judge suggested that "there has been talk this week" that maybe they're "closer" than expected to naming a successor. Jim said Josh "D'Amaturo" (sic that's how he pronounced it, and he said "I may have mispronounced his name"), the head of experiences/theme parks, is the "odds-on favorite" and the market "would be disappointed if he is not named."

OK. So the market would be disappointed if some guy whose name Jim doesn't even know is not chosen to "succeed" (i.e., keep the seat warm for a couple years) Iger.

That was very interesting, because Jim didn't say anything about whether they need to hire a new CEO who will sell the company. Shortly after Halftime, Laura Martin told Kelly Evans that AAPL and AMZN could be potential buyers of DIS. Laura said of DIS, "We like it better as part of something else. I would love Netflix to buy Disney, so it had all that IP it could develop." Laura noted DIS is "half the size of Netflix now" in market cap; it's true.

Steve Grasso: Trump’s comments on China are ‘all posturing’

Great-Grandpa Rob Sechan (but he's "fully invested") was on the Post 9 set for Tuesday's (11/12) Halftime Report and said we're "pulling forward" some 2025 gains and repeated his dubious claim of a day earlier, that the post-election rally in 2016 was "fleeting" into 2017, because the leadership "faded" (snicker) in the following year.

Joe Terranova wasn't on hand this time to shoot it down, so Stephanie Link did the honors, stating that back in 2016, from election eve to March 2017, the S&P rallied 15%. And by the end of 2017, "you were up 25%."

Bryn Talkington said, "There's a tremendous amount of FOMO."

Discussing CRWD and other cybersecurity names (this writer is long CRWD), Stephanie said the sector is "bigger than AI."

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso suggested Marco Rubio is just as much a hawk on Russia as China. "Trump is actually a strategic hawk on China ... I don't think he's as hawkish as we think he really is. What he says he's going to do and what he's going to do — 2 different things. I think it's all posturing."

Rob seems to claim that 2017 was a bad or weak year for stocks

Rob Sechan, unlike his fellow Halftime Report panelists (and virtually everyone else in the world), is somehow jaw-droppingly skeptical of the late-2024 stock market.

So skeptical, he's even claiming 2017 was a bad year.

Rob on Monday's (11/11) show admitted early, "We are still tilting towards caution (snicker)."

Then he brought up maybe his favorite subject: "We're hoping that a lot of the gains we have this year can be pushed into next year so we don't brutalize our clients from a tax standpoint."

We're still scratching our heads over how Rob appears to dread taxes more than he likes stocks; we can't figure out why he doesn't work in the muni bond business instead where he can skip the taxes altogether.

Rob claimed "we are not chasing performance" because the rally only "increases risk in 2025," and "this has all been based on valuation Scott."

Joe Terranova took issue with that last comment, stating there are "fundamental tailwinds" now in an already strong market that include deregulation and the "overall environment" including increased M&A.

Rob conceded that's true, but "tariffs could happen quickly" and immigration moves "could also disrupt the labor supply" so you have to "stay disciplined."

Rob must've been planning lunch at Burger King, because then he dropped this Whopper: claiming the election boost from 2016 "lasted about 2 months" and "the moves all faded as soon as '17 began."

Joe said, "Rob, I'll take 2017 any day. It was one of the lowest volatility years, the VIX never got above 20, the VIX traded to 8, and we had a 17-plus% return on the S&P. '17 in totality was a great year."

"You also started from an entirely different base Joe," Rob countered. "Interest rates were 1.8%."

Joe said, "Rob, no one knows how high is high."

Joe said, as for tariffs, the semis have "begun to price in" the tariffs.

Rob claimed he's "fully invested" and the conversation is "quite comical," and "if you're not paying attention to the risk, you're whistlin' through the graveyard, buddy."

So what does that mean ... he's fully invested ... but everyone else who is fully invested is closing their eyes and "whistlin' through the graveyard, buddy?"

Jim Lebenthal said he's not going to "slam" Rob's points, but "there's a couple of things that are wildly different than 8 years ago." One is that the Fed is cutting, and now we've got China stimulating.

Jim predicted "at least 4 or 5 more months ... before the chicken comes home to roost."

Jim suggests making money at this time in stocks may be as simple as throwing a dart at a board

A lot of times, we tend to think Halftime Report panelists stress caution in such a way that it almost sounds like they think everyone is throwing darts at a board, but we were even a little surprised by Jim Lebenthal's effusiveness on Monday's (11/11) program.

Jim said the rally has "nothing to do with valuation," but it's a "chase to (sic) performance" and "FOMO."

Then Jim suggested it even may be "throw a dart at a board."

Jim also mentioned the Treasury "drawdown" into year-end and credited Dan Clifton for "pounding the table" on this subject.

Judge said Oppenheimer went to 6,200 (snicker). Joe Terranova said it's a "chase for performance."

Joe actually claimed, "That October flush (snicker) really shook a lot of people out of the equities market." Joe sees "plenty of runway ahead."

Anastasia Amoroso said there's a "sense of exuberance" that's "justified."

‘Some dude’ asks Judge about stocks

Monday's (11/11) Halftime Report included several nice tributes to Jim Lebenthal and all veterans. Jim, as always, was very gracious about this subject.

As for the markets, Judge said he was out of town over the weekend, "Some dude comes up to me, and he starts talkin' about Applovin," which Judge said is replacing DLTR in the Nasdaq 100.

"They are in the ad tech business," Joe Terranova said. "If you're a mobile app developer, you need them." Joe also mentioned "AI." Joe cautioned it's "highly volatile," but he does think it can get to $400 in "coming years" (Zzzzzzz).

And if "some dude" had mentioned this stock to Judge a few months ago, then "some dude" would be the front-runner for Halftime Report Call of the Year.

MacKenzie Sigalos joined the crew to say crypto is surging on 4 promises made by Donald Trump.

Jim bought more ABBV, in his personal account, on the big pullback on the schizophrenia drug, saying it's "too much to the downside." Jim said "management knows what they're doing" despite buying this drug developer for $8 billion.

Kate Rogers reported breaking news that Scott Boatright is permanent CEO at CMG. Joe reminded viewers "I wanted this in August" and suggested its "only challenge" might be the "reawakening" of SBUX and the possible movement of investment dollars from CMG into SBUX.

Jim said DIS is "definitely a hold" (snicker) and you can "probably add to it here." JIm claimed, "There's a lot of things that can go right here (snicker)."

On Monday's Fast Money, Guy Adami pointed out what GEO did around election time in 2016 and what happened in 2017 and predicted the same now. "This is happening exactly like it did 8 or so years ago," Guy said.

Bryn attended Memorial High School, also attended by Reid Gettys and sons of Roger Clemens

Bryn Talkington on Friday's (11/8) Halftime Report said she bought DELL and said Michael Dell is a "Houston-based guy," prompting chuckles from Judge and the panel.

Moments later, Judge said "geographical experts" (apparently one person who sent him an email) were telling him that Michael Dell is based in "actually Austin." (Judge evidently reads emails while panelists talk.)

Bryn said "we went to the same high school" and that he went to "UT" and started DELL in Austin.

Judge said "We've got fact-checkers all over the place (sic) (not actually true), um, thank you very little, uh, for- for the email, you know- you know who you are (it wasn't this page)."

Bryn says NVDA trade has ‘another few quarters’ to go

Bryn Talkington on Friday's (11/8) Halftime Report said "you feel animal spirits in the market already" (actually it seems like they've been felt since Aug. 5).

Bryn predicted there will be continued broadening and "different spots that do well next year."

Brian Belski said he was "very lucky enough" (snicker) to change his S&P target to 6,100 when he did. (Um, what exactly did he achieve from this target? A prize?)

Santoli said he doesn't think 6,000 has a "ton of significance" except it means the market is up 25% on the year.

Of the Fed, Kevin Simpson said he was "pleased, thrilled and just, uh, enjoying a very boring meeting yesterday."

Of NVDA, Bryn said, "I think this trade is gonna last at least another few quarters."

Judge in the 9th minute was once again talking about Elon's "access." Bryn suggested TSLA is "pretty toppy" and said she'd be selling calls.

Bryn said she bought UBER last week "really at like 73," then sold January 80 calls.

Judge apparently gives ‘squirrelly’ looks to panelists when they mention dubious trades

Kevin Simpson on Friday's (11/8) Halftime Report trimmed TPL, which he bought recently when it was up 100% (apparently on the year); Kevin said Judge "looked at me squirrelly when we bought this," but Kevin made "40% profit in a couple weeks." (That's the Joe Terranova buy high/sell higher theory.)

Kevin bought more CME and touted again the special dividend.

Kevin sold covered calls in AAPL and WMT.

Josh Brown wasn't on the panel but joined remotely and celebrated long-term stock gains, stating "risk is rewarded over long stretches of time." Brown said he sold SG despite a "good report." He touted the gains in TOST.

Bryn blamed BHP's slide on "China, China, China" and said "I think we're probably gonna use this as a tax loss this year."

In a BAC discussion, Belski actually said, "I'd be really happy if we never talk about price to tangible book again." Belski said the "theme" of "scale" is finally working in big banks.

Jeffrey Gundlach suggests (potential) GOP sweep driven by ‘crazy lawsuits’

Jeffrey Gundlach on Thursday's (11/7) Closing Bell told Judge that the election was "very very consequential" and that most people were surprised at "how widespread the strength was" for Republicans.

Jeffrey suggested it might be related to "crazy lawsuits" being filed a year ago. He said "Trump's authenticity, uh, is- is something that attracts people," but "he's always been a debt guy."

Earlier on the Halftime Report, Jenny Harrington admitted, "What I really, really didn't expect was a red sweep." Jenny said that will bring a "full extension of the tax cuts." (Note: This page weeks ago reported that the market was trading like a red sweep, a day before Santoli spoke of the same in his Midday Word.)

Josh Brown said at the top of the show that it's "really important" to stress that the market rally was "already underway" well before Election Day. Liz Young Thomas said it's "the best post-Election Day rally in history" and "there's probably still more room for this to go."

Jim Lebenthal claimed, "There's a very esoteric thing (snicker) that's gonna go on in the 1st quarter of this year (sic, either meant 4th quarter of this year or 1st quarter next year), which is the debt ceiling is gonna be reached on December 31st."

Jim said by that point, the Treasury will spend down its general account, which "puts money into the commercial banking system." So Jim thinks the market will go higher for 2 months and then "continue."

Judge said we "may" (he stressed "may" 5 times) get "a further reduction in the corporate rate," but it's "unlikely" to get to 15%.

Some CNBCers apparently already have Christmas trees set up

Judge on Thursday's (11/7) Halftime Report said Barry Bannister is warning, "The train is approaching Crazy Town," and that there's only upside to the low 6,000s and downside to 5,250.

Hoo boy ... this page is going to be referencing "Crazy Town" for a long time.

Josh Brown harkened back to Ed Yardeni's prediction of the "Roaring 2020s" (we'd already forgotten that one) (a lot of people by mid-2020 were saying that) and "everyone mocked him," but "This looks and feels like we're going into a robber baron age."

("Robber baron age" ... that's another one we're going to be referencing for a long time.)

Josh said, "Crazy Town could get- become Crazier Town."

Josh knocked Baird's call to take profits in JPM and pointed out how long it's been a great stock. Jim Lebenthal said that past performance doesn't mean anything (check that, he didn't say that this time) said that to sell JPM, "you have to be negative on the financial sector."

Jim said "about a year ago," UBS "actually recommended shorting Nvidia." Jim suggested that was probably the "CS First Boston folks that they brought on board."

Jim said Baird's call is "not the way to be provocative; this is a way to get carried out feet first."

Josh downplayed Judge's suggestion that Elon Musk's association with Donald Trump is weighing on UBER, noting LYFT's gain Thursday. Judge stressed that Elon has gone from "somebody who couldn't get invited to the White House for an EV summit to somebody who can pull up a chair to the desk in the Oval Office."

Judge said he's "surprised" nobody's mentioned buying TSLA.

Jenny Harrington said that if Elon gets a Cabinet position, he can sell his stock "tax-free." Josh Brown also said or agreed with "tax-free." We haven't heard about that subject for a long time (Hank "sharp elbows (according to CNBC)" Paulson was the one who got a lot of attention about that) and, after a tiny bit of research, it appears the benefit is "tax-deferred," although, from what we could determine from a couple articles, it sounds like it can be a permanent benefit; keep in mind we can barely figure out the square root of 25.

Judge was about 4 years old
during Rick Barry’s heyday

Judge bluntly told Tom Lee during Thursday's (11/7) Halftime Report, "Yesterday was, you know, felt euphoric."

Tom said "animal spirits could be unleashed" and suggested "5-10% upside into year-end."

Judge said Fundstrat is launching an ETF called "Granny Shots" (GRNY) (snicker). Tom said it consists of stocks closely tied to 7 investment themes and explained, "Granny Shots is named after Hall of Famer Rick Barry's way of shooting free throws."

"Some of us do remember that," Judge said. "We definitely do."

Rob Sechan dialed in to trumpet VST.

After the A Block, Judge tried to talk about energy-sector strategies (Zzzzzzz).

Jim Lebenthal said people may be buying ONON on the pullback (rather than Judge's suggestion of riding Under Armour's coattails).

Jenny Harrington said DIS is on "solid footing" (snicker).

Josh retrumpeted RDDT. He said he should've bought more than a "tiny bit" in his original stake.

Santoli said it's "early" to talk about "Crazy Town."

Tim Seymour: ‘A lot of people are offsides,’ predicts ‘squeeze into year-end’

On Wednesday's (11/6) Fast Money, which was far more spirited than the Halftime Report, where people hardly seemed to know there's just been a presidential election, Guy Adami said there were maybe some signs Wednesday of "a little bit of what we call a blowoff top," but it's "hard to argue" with a market marching steadily upward.

The strongest opinion though came from Tim Seymour. Discussing Warren Buffett, Tim said, "In the short run ... I think a lot of people are offsides. I think there's a squeeze into year-end. I think there's a lot of people that are panicking."

Karen Finerman said the "magnitude in so many areas" of the market's strong day surprised her.

Tim Seymour pointed to around 7:30 or 8 p.m. Tuesday when Florida gave a "window" into what might be happening in numerous states.

Weiss hangs a $100,000 on bitcoin

On Wednesday's (11/6) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss said of crypto, "I'm sad I don't own it," but he thinks you can "buy more for a trade." Weiss suggested $100,000 is "probably the next stop" for bitcoin.

Taking a stab at political analysis, Weiss declared, "A good part of what got Trump reelected is playing to the populist person- to the person on the street."

Judge said Tom Lee is "still sticking with his massive run" prediction (snicker) for small caps.

Joe Terranova said of the big rally Wednesday, people call it a "reflation trade" and "we're basically inflating equities right now."

Kari Firestone said megacap tech have performed in a "restrictive" environment and now are looking at "less regulation."

Judge said "I find it very interesting" that META is down. Weiss said the market is "lifting all boats," but that's just "today," and "that's going to change over time."

Weiss said one of the "quick fixes" of the Trump administration will be removing Lina Khan, who "never should've been in the position."

Steve Kovach pointed out that some tech investigations began under the Trump administration.

Judge argued with Weiss' contention that Elon Musk's companies won't suffer as Musk spends more of his time involved with government.

Steve Liesman offered, "I think we're probably on track for 2 more cuts this year."

Jason Snipe bought FI. Weiss bought CRH (Zzzzzzzz). Like virtually every position he's got, "it's not a big position yet."

Joe felt compelled to "keep repeating" that people should not buy SMCI.

The 2 panelists who semi-regularly talk about ISM and PMI were on the show Tuesday (and one of them actually mentioned ISM in the 1st minute of the show)

Jenny Harrington on Tuesday's (11/5) Halftime Report described the presidential election this way: "It's binary, right. One wins or the other wins."

Can't really argue with that.

Judge said Tony Pasquariello says "any semblance of a clean outcome (snicker) — is implied volatility gets hit, hard and fast."

Judge said Adam Parker said a day ago on Closing Bell, "The bull case is intact unless we get a policy change (snicker)."

In the category of Is This November 2007, Rob Sechan claimed with a straight face that momentum, breadth and forward earnings estimates are "deteriorating."

Bill Baruch, apparently referring just to a "split Congress," stated, "If we get an answer there tonight, I expect the market to be higher tomorrow." Bill said he thinks the S&P gets to 6,200, "depending on who wins the presidential election."

(Actually, this page has previously stated (see below) that, given the rally in September-October, the outcome of the election might actually be a blowoff top.)

Joe Terranova wasn't on Tuesday's panel but joined remotely (from his pandemic-era office with the 3 numbers on the wall) to take a victory lap on PLTR and bash the analyst ratings. Joe said $40 has gone from the "ceiling" to the "floor."

Bill said he "definitely missed" PLTR. Joe ended the segment talking up TWLO again.

Judge for the 2nd day in a row brought up MAR (see below), citing a neutral (snicker) call at Mizuho.

Jim Lebenthal said he wants to "stick around" in WYNN. Judge called the stock a "stinker" (snicker).

Jim stated, "I don't actually believe that the prior past performance of the stock is indicative of the future."

Judge wondered if the fundamentals are so good, "Why isn't the stock reflecting that?"

"Sometimes that happens, Scott," Jim explained.

There are 2 panelists who semi-regularly mention ISMs and PMIs; neither was on Monday’s show

Discussing MAR on Monday's (11/4) Halftime Report, Josh Brown scoffed at "ISMs and PMIs and all this other stuff from the 1970s that no longer predicts anything" and suggested "if you just walk outside your house" and take note of business and consumer travel, you'll see the "absolute bonanza" for MAR.

"This thing could go green for all we know," Brown said of MAR's day. (It didn't, actually.) (This review was posted overnight Monday-Tuesday.)

Josh claims RDDT reminds him of Facebook 2013

Early into Monday's (11/4) Halftime Report, Josh Brown explained why he bought RDDT, admitting he "did not buy this stock cheap," but he's trying to "build a position," somewhere "closer to 100," so he took a "very small position."

Josh said the market didn't fully appreciate Reddit's recent quarter, and "a lot about the situation reminds me of Facebook in late 2012, early 2013" (snicker).

Josh said "active user growth year over year was 47%," and that "40% of the traffic is originating from Google. When you search for almost anything now in Google, you're getting Reddit as a top 1, 2 or 3 result." (Which means you're getting about 10% useful references and 90% gibberish.)

Josh even suggested an AI angle for Reddit that "opens up an international audience" that Josh claimed could somehow lead to Reddit "doubling and tripling its revenue."

Josh's comments came after Judge had opened by asking Shannon Saccocia NOT who will win the election, but "what's on your mind" (snicker).

Still not sure what PLTR is doing month to date (cont’d)

On Monday's (11/4) Halftime Report, viewers learned the JOET sold GOOGL and AAPL. (Zzzzzzzzz)

Joe Terranova again gave the tired spiel about "strip out the human emotion" and claimed there are "so many exhibits" (snicker) of how the rules-based approach works but said if he personally had to make the call, he's not sure he would've sold GOOGL. Josh Brown noted GOOGL is below where it was heading into earnings.

Joe marveled at how the PLTR "analyst community" only has a $28 12-month price target on the stock.

Josh is touting a breakout in DAL. Sarat Sethi said he could go on and on about DAL because "it is one of my favorite stocks." Joe said the JOET bought DAL and UAL.

Sarat agrees with Evercore's $400 target on CRM. Of course, the JOET bought it too.

Josh’s blast from the past

In the 36th minute of Friday's (11/1) Halftime Report, Josh Brown actually mentioned "Doug Kass" (apparently that's OK now), recalling a debate 10 years ago when BRK-B was 50 and whether it would go to 40 or 60.

Jim Lebenthal cited the "spinout of Banamex" as a catalyst for ... C (snicker).

As Judge recapped panelists' "contrarian" picks from the start of the year, basically all of them said they were just picking beaten-down sectors and weren't in or committed to those trades.

Steve Weiss declared at one point, "The best energy traders we all know have the toughest time making money in energy."

Josh hung a $300 on MAR. Judge and Weiss chuckled about Jim's cliches while discussing WYNN, even though (other than "the cherry on top") we didn't really hear that many bona fide cliches from Jim.

Judge said PLTR is the "6th best S&P stock month to date," then acknowledged that Friday is only the first day of the month and he didn't know whether it was year to date or something else (at least he didn't try to tell us the forward P.E.).

Josh’s commitment to PYPL spanned a whole $13

On Friday's (1/1) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss said of the MSFT and META selloffs a day earlier, "Who cares ... That's nothing."

Weiss and Bryn Talkington both indicated that AI as an investment thesis is still good to go.

Josh Brown noted that GOOGL has "given back the entire pop" it got from earnings.

Judge again mentioned "monolith," this time in the 5th minute suggesting megacap tech is NOT monolithic. Jim Lebenthal agreed there are "some that will be bigger winners than others." But Jim said that absolutely none of the market is monolithic, and it's a "stock picker's market" (snicker).

Judge and Weiss haggled again over what AAPL's prospects actually are.

Josh said he sold PYPL. "I bought it at 70; I sold it at 83 on Tuesday when the earnings came out," Brown said. (Those numbers are stock prices, not forward P.E. ratios.) (As far as we know.)

Brown said he bought BKR (we would swear the symbol used to be BHI), for the same old reason, it's in a "breakout," and of course, at some point, "there really aren't any sellers." Bryn Talkington backed the trade and used the term "sector writ large."

Jim and Judge offer up some P.E. ratios for MSFT

On Thursday's (10/31) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal said he trimmed MSFT, saying "this has had a terrible chart for quite some time" and it's "simply overpriced."

Judge sounded a little skeptical, saying "I get it" about the short-term chart, but that the P.E. is "29 and a half" (snicker) and on July 5, "it was 35."

And invoking his new metric, Judge said the 5-year average MSFT multiple is also 29.5, and 25.2 for 10 years.

Judge said "it seems to me" that some people are actually "more excited" to own the shares now.

Jim claimed a "small detail," that FactSet (snicker) says the forward multiple (snicker) is "31." Judge apparently conceded but said "down from 35."

Joe Terranova said a megacap quarter like that of MSFT "begins to dent the overall prevailing bullish trend that we have right now."

Josh Brown, meanwhile, who wasn't at Post 9, said the reax to UBER earnings is "sort of bizarre." He said it just reported one of its best quarters ever, though a "fly in the ointment" was gross bookings.

Joe said he sold UBER in his personal account. Joe cited the gross bookings.

Jim claims BAC regulatory issues could turn out like WFC, knocks those making ‘wry smiles’

Bill Baruch beamed in during Thursday's (10/31) Halftime Report to say he bought GS and sold BAC.

Jim Lebenthal said there are "some regulatory inquiries" at BAC. Jim said those issues could go "either of 2 ways," one of them being like Wells Fargo, and as Jim said that, he told Stephanie Link, "I think I see a wry smile on your face."

"No way. This is not Wells Fargo. No way," Stephanie said. Jim protested, "Wells Fargo actually sailed through this."

Judge said that Jim maybe would "suggest" that the Wells Fargo situation was "a little idiosyncratic." Jim said what he'd suggest is, "Don't take it lightly."

Judge said, "OK, we will not. Thank you for the heads up."

Jim said where it "should not have been taken lightly was Citigroup ... I know what I'm talking about." Jim said he thought he saw "3 wry smiles" while he was talking.

Meanwhile, Joe Terranova said that regardless of how the JOET handles it, don't buy SMCI. Joe said it's not in the "penalty box" (one of Joe's longtime favorite expressions), but it's a stock that "basically gets suspended for the season."

Stephanie Link called EL, which is still having a mind-bogglingly nasty couple of years, a "no touch for now." (This writer is long EL.)

On Fast Money, guest host Sully mentioned the Rubber Ducky character in the dreadful 1978 movie "Convoy." (Sully didn't say it's dreadful. That's what this page is saying.)

If the ‘closing arguments’ were Sunday and Tuesday, why are the candidates still campaigning?

Wednesday's (10/30) Halftime Report crew had nothing better to do than evaluate the Alphabet earnings. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Steve Weiss claimed, "AI has helped them actually."

Joe Terranova shrugged that Alphabet just needed to top a "low bar."

Jason Snipe said it was a "great quarter on all ends" and that Google Cloud has come "a long way."

Weiss said the group's commentary was a little "understated," that Alphabet did more than "clear a low bar."

On the other hand, "I thought it was a home run call," said Bryn Talkington, adding that previous calls were kind of "blasé."

Weiss actually brought up the old days of Halftime when people (basically Pete Najarian) used to clamor for Facebook to do something in MOBILE!!!!!!

Joe said of AMD, "I don't view it as broken just yet." Bryn said "Dr. Lisa Su" is "amazing," and Bryn would "never discount her."

Weiss pointed out that AMD entered the quarter "at 80 times trailing P.E." (Judge never fact-checked that number), almost a "third higher" than NVDA (Judge never fact-checked that number either). "What were people thinking? This is purely a momentum trade," Weiss concluded, saying it was "asinine to own this stock at that valuation," one of his 2 "asinine" references on the day.

Joe suggested you don't want to touch SMCI.

Weiss actually claims that LLY has ‘echoes’ of MRNA

During Wednesday's (10/30) Halftime Report, the subject of LLY's earnings came up.

Steve Weiss claimed LLY has "echoes" of MRNA.

"I was involved, as everybody will remind me I'm sure, in Moderna," Weiss said, but actually Judge never mentions it; it's only this site that bothers to point out that Weiss in 2020 and 2021 regularly trumpeted how great MRNA was regardless of whether it was trading in the 300s or 400s. (Weiss has made some great calls, including this one — for a while — but his continuation of this call was a disaster.)

Weiss claimed Wednesday that we're seeing a "commoditization" of weight-loss drugs. He said it's "asinine to own a pharma company at 55 times EBITDA."

Judge suggested the growth is strong; Weiss said it's not "sustainable."

Weiss, LDOS CEO said ‘Hi’

On Wednesday's (10/30) Halftime Report, Judge said Wingstop has commercials "all over, uh, Sunday football games."

Joe Terranova said SHAK is cooking on margins. Joe said there's "disappointment" in CMG having a little higher expenses and not opening as many stores as previously thought. Joe pronounced it "Chipulte" (sic) at one point.

Steve Weiss made the "1 times book" (Zzzzzzz) and "great CEO" argument for BAC.

Judge said he wouldn't necessarily call the big banks a "monolith" but "there really is not much differentiation between the gains in the stocks."

Joe said there's "broken momentum" in energy. "For sure," Jason Snipe agreed.

Judge told Bryn Talkington that RBLX "has now become a pretty controversial name."

"Well the stock hasn't traded very controversial," Bryn said.

Joe said GRMN is in the "sweet spot for consumer products."

Judge said Weiss "front-ran" his own Final Trade of LDOS; Weiss said he was at the HQ a day ago and "briefly said 'Hi' to the CEO." Judge wondered, "Did the CEO say 'Hi' back?" "Uh, yeah, he did, he did," Weiss revealed.

Judge actually cites (what he claims is) GOOGL’s 5-year average multiple

Tuesday's (10/29) Halftime Report opened with panelists previewing Alphabet's earnings and its AI issues (Zzzzzzzzzz) (not nearly as exciting as a day ago when Judge actually said "bar fight" on-air). Jim Lebenthal mentioned the multiple (Zzzzzzzz) and Judge even claimed to know the 5-year average GOOGL multiple (snicker).

Jim Lebenthal complained that the rally isn't broader and said "I hate this" and said he's "really disappointed," and conceded of the market, "Once again, this quarter, it's relying on the Mag 7."

Apparently Tony Pasquariello touted mid caps on Monday's Closing Bell; Judge re-aired the clip on Tuesday's Halftime. Jim lumped in mid caps with small caps as having potential; "You can do research that the rest of the world doesn't know," but Jim conceded that the stocks may not go up right away.

Sarat Sethi joined remotely to say he bought CRM. Sarat sold USB (citing how much it's up over 12 months) and RBLX. Kevin Simpson sold TXN and cited all kinds of stats (Zzzzzzz). He put the proceeds into ORCL. Jim predicted a "crescendo into year-end" for ORCL.

Jim said he doesn't see homebuilders as a buy. Jim said there's "no reason" to own F over GM, though he did call Jim Farley a "very dynamic CEO (snicker)."

Jenny Harrington questioned JBLU's excuse of the November elections. "I'm kinda like, why would anyone not travel because of elections?" That's a great point.

Kevin Simpson said MCD is neither a buy nor sell.

On Tuesday's Fast Money, Mel gave Steve Kornacki plenty of time to outline the current polling in the presidential and Senate and House races. Despite the details offered by Kornacki, not one panelist on Fast Money opined on the presidential election.

If Donald Trump had won in 2020, there’d be no Jan. 6, he wouldn’t be on the ballot now and we’d be talking about Gretchen Whitmer vs. Mike Pence

Monday's (10/28) sleepy Halftime Report opened with Josh Brown trimming Alphabet (Zzzzzzzz). (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Steve Weiss basically argued that Alphabet could surprise in a good way. Then Josh haggled with CNBC's gorgeous Dee Bosa over whether Google could lose its status as the entry point of most people into the internet and whatever AI brings. It wasn't until the 10th minute when Judge got into Brad Gerstner's year(s)-old gripes (Zzzzzzzz) (snicker) about Google losing the AI race.

Bryn Talkington contended that Google's "moat" has "cracks" and will change.

Judge said D.A. Davidson, apparently invoking "Road House" (above), is even calling data-center buildout by tech giants a "drunken bar fight."

Rich Saperstein said he's not about to call for a "reversion" to small caps; "we've heard that for years."

Stephen Tusa joined remotely to make the bull case for MMM and even quoted Judge Smails: "The world needs ditch diggers, too." (That offers a 2nd famous movie photo.)

Steve Liesman hasn’t heard a ‘good response’ from Harris team about inflation or immigration

Late into Thursday's (10/28) Closing Bell, Steve Liesman reported on findings from the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, and in the process made several thoughtful observations about the presidential race.

Thoughtful, for sure, because Steve is one of the most objective voices on CNBC and does not traffic in political punditry (not that there's anything wrong with that).

Steve said the survey shows, "Americans largely believe they're losing ground to these price increases."

He continued, "There's very little that former President Trump has said that leads me or other economists to believe he would have a positive effect on inflation. He has this notion that he's spoken about, which is driving down energy prices, as if the American energy industry needs much lower prices now. Uh, and, and Harris, she seems to be more in line with paying for her spending, even though that's a promise not necessarily always kept."

Steve said the "story" to him is, "We had inflation during the Biden/Harris, uh, time period ... so therefore, we blame Biden/Harris, and anybody else in this situation is going to be better."

Steve added, "I will say this, Scott: After I listened to the 2 debates and have been following the campaigns, I do not hear a good response from the Harris team about the inflation issue. I don't hear a good response about the immigration issue. Those are 2 really important issues, and I have not heard a response- to say the Inflation Reduction Act is really something that does not appear to resonate with the American people."

Judge actually opens two separate shows with HSBC’s mid-level S&P target

Judge opened Thursday's (10/24) Halftime Report saying HSBC raised its target to a whole ... 5,900.

Josh Brown suggested that if the housing market can finally get going, it would be a big boost to the economy. Liz Young Thomas conceded, "Yes new home sales were healthy, however, existing home sales earlier this week were not."

Jenny Harrington said the market is "just kinda frothy." Jenny also warned about the national debt (snicker) and rising rates. Josh pointed out, "There's other theories besides the bond vigilantes that I've been hearing about for 25 years."

A few hours later, at the top of Closing Bell, Judge again started off with HSBC's 5,900 target (snicker) (slow news day). Joe Terranova, who was on Closing Bell, said that target is "probably a little bit light."

Joe also pointed out, "There has not been one pullback today in Tesla."

Jenny’s excited about VZ

VZ surfaced in a debate (snicker) (slow news day) on Thursday's (10/24) Halftime Report.

Jenny Harrington said KeyBanc is "not wrong" about its downgrade of VZ, but Jenny looks at it as "kind of a bond equivalent" and touted the dividend.

Josh Brown questioned what the VZ CEO is paying himself; "where are the activists?" Brown added, "This stock literally is like watching paint dry."

Josh demanded of Jenny, what would change to make the VZ dividend yield 3% instead of 6% because the stock doubles. "I don't need that," Jenny claimed. Josh suggested, "Buy a bond."

Meanwhile, Josh said it was "stupid" for people to sell UBER in August on the TSLA announcements. "I think autonomous, uh, taxis (otherwise known as a 'bus') are the future," Brown said.

Jason Snipe dialed in to say he continues to like NOW. Josh Brown touted the "technical opportunity" of ZM but didn't sound too enthusiastic about it from an "investing perspective."

Josh said he sold half of his LYV position in June, "so today I feel like a schmuck on wheels" (presumably autonomous driving wheels).

Joe twice says markets are thinking about a Republican sweep

Steve Weiss qualified and equivocated at the top of Wednesday's (10/23) Halftime Report before finally concluding, "Hold on to what you have, and wait this out," as if the October market has been an ordeal to wait out.

Joe Terranova said Santoli said Monday that "yields are rising for non-fundamental reasons." Joe explained, "We've got right now speculation surrounding not just President Trump winning, but an actual Republican sweep, which means an extension of the tax cuts and deregulation."

Judge cautioned that it might be a slow process. "November 5th is the beginning, not the end," Judge sighed, suggesting the possibility of a "prolonged" season of counting votes (presumably meaning houses of Congress as well as the presidency).

In the show's 51st minute, Joe again referenced election overhang; "I also think a lot of what's going on with the semis does relate to the possibility of a Trump and Republican sweep," Joe said.

Judge said Piper Sandler hiked its target to 6,100, matching Belski.

Judge pretends Weiss’ joke about Josh wasn’t a good one

Judge on Wednesday's (10/23) Halftime Report invited Rob Sechan by phone to talk about MCD. Rob first said Hi to everyone, prompting Judge to cut in, "What are your thoughts, Rob?" Rob said it's a "small position" with "huge embedded gains," so "we are not selling."

Rob referred to "Chipulte" (sic pronunciation).

Joe Terranova seemed to indicate that SBUX is going to rally faster than MCD will.

Steve Weiss joked that the producer, Kevin, should "send a wellness check out to Josh based on the McDonald's news." Judge sighed, "Let's go."

Weiss said that if you sold CMG during its E. coli problems, "you've had nothing but regrets," and "people aren't gonna make the same wholesale mistake" with MCD, and "This is definitely not a reason to sell it."

Joe tells people not to ignore a news report; Judge takes it personally

During a news alert on an analyst's outlook for iPhone orders on Wednesday's (10/23) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova said not to "dismiss" it (Judge said no one's dismissing it) and insisted on making a point about importance of the analyst's outlook and happened to mention it's "actual numbers."

Judge said "They're not actual numbers. You just said they're actual numbers. They're not actual numbers."

"I wouldn't ignore it. That's the point," Joe concluded.

"No, which is why we sorta discussed it the way we did with Steve Kovach. Uh, but thank you very much," Judge said.

Judge mocks Weiss’ supposed ‘deep preparation’ for the program (even though Weiss generally is better prepared than most panelists)

Judge on Wednesday's (10/23) Halftime Report, trying to press Brenda Vingiello into making a call on Elon, called Musk "the most highly polarizing CEO arguably in America at this point."

Brenda said a "ton" of people hate Elon, but, "3 out of almost every 4 cars on the road is a Tesla in some parts of the Bay Area." Brenda sorta painted a possible role for Elon in the government as a "positive" for TSLA; Steve Weiss sounded incredulous.

Brenda Vingiello was asked to opine on Needham reiterating a buy (snicker) on DIS. Brenda said, "We still think that there's opportunity here, um, so we're sticking with it."

Bill Baruch joined remotely to say he bought more MSFT, stating it's at "the lowest level relative to the Q's since February of 2023."

Weiss said he thinks the order book concerns for VRT are "misplaced." Weiss said he didn't hear the earnings call because it started at 11 a.m. Eastern and "coming on the show, I didn't have time." Judge joked about Weiss' "deep preparation" and for some reason couldn't stop chuckling.

Joe Terranova suggested cybersecurity names have been hurt recently by the "rise in yields." (This writer is long CRWD.)

Joe's JOET owns NTRS; he said he was "skeptical" when it was added, but the "biggest catalyst" for it now is the "skepticism that's still in place right now, today (sic last word redundant)."

Santoli says markets in ‘2016’ mode

Shortly into Tuesday's (10/22) Halftime, Judge was rereading Dan Loeb's letter anticipating a Republican victory. Judge also aired a clip of Sorkin hearing the same from Paul Tudor Jones on Squawk Box, with Jones saying, "primarily because I see the polling numbers have clearly moved in this direction."

The thing we noticed about that clip is that Sorkin hardly had to pull teeth for that comment; Jones was more than happy to offer it.

Meanwhile, Judge reported that David Einhorn, pointing to Warren Buffett, suggests "right now is not a great time to have a lot of equity exposure."

Joe Terranova, one of the day's panelists, decided, "A lot of what this week is, is really noise," though Joe conceded there are "overall strong tailwinds that exist."

Joe at one point claimed, "Yes the market is clearly broadening out."

Judge actually thought it was worth a minute or 2 to discuss Krinsky's call on utilities.

Santoli suggested the markets might be envisioning "the 2016 trade again" (this page made that point a day ago), though he's not sure markets want that kind of reflation "medicine" this time around.

So were they building this much junk in the past, and people just happened to catch it?

On Tuesday's (10/22) sleepy Halftime Report, Joe Terranova again cited "hurricane disruptions" as a PHM headwind, saying those disruptions are "pausing building specifically in Florida."

We're not meteorologists or anything, but we can't figure out why hurricanes would sway people from buying PHM stock given that presumably there's going to be more building — if not right away, then soon — than there otherwise would've been.

Phil LeBeau did a great Halftime interview with Boeing Machinists president Jon Holden in which Phil asked about BA quality-control issues. "It's a lot of Machinists who are on the line. ... How do you explain this drop in quality?"

Holden responded, "You know there was a lot of changes in the quality management system that we have been sounding the alarm on for over 5 years. In fact, the company wouldn't listen. ... we went to the FAA, and thankfully the FAA did restore tens of thousands of quality inspections that should've never been removed."

But in a follow-up, Holden admitted, "I think we've got a long way to go."

On Fast Money, Phil predicted a "close vote" on the new contract deal.

Brenda Vingiello bought WYNN. Brenda trimmed V, citing government overhang.

Rob Sechan said MMM is up "roughly 40% since we bought it." Congrats.

BTIG gave DECK a downgrade; Joe basically just said the company will just have to do better.

Joe said the COST chart looks "really good." Judge said it trades at "52 times." Who knows if it really does. (See below, numerous entries.)

On Fast Money, which devoted much of its time to MCD, Guy Adami said he doesn't think anyone died from the CMG E. Coli problem years ago, but someone has died from MCD's problem.

James Gorman’s list: Barack Obama, Barack Obama, Barack Obama, Jensen Huang, Brian Niccol, Jamie Dimon, Mary Barra, Harry Shari Redstone, Nelson

Judge on Monday's (10/21) Halftime Report mentioned always one of our favorite stocks, DIS. (This writer has no position in DIS.)

Judge said DIS is going to announce Iger's successor in "early '26." (So after working on this 5 years ago, and working again on it for the last 2 years, they hope to arrive at a decision in a year and a half.) (#bob'slifetimecontract)

Amy Raskin claimed, "From a long-term (snicker) perspective, we think Iger turns the ship around (snicker)."

Brian Belski actually said, "We love Iger ... if you think about Disney, it's really done a great job on the streaming side, relative to the other, let's say, the big box, uh, streamers."

Really. What exactly has DIS done "great" in streaming? And who are all these "big box" streamers? The only "great job" DIS could've done in streaming is licensing the content to NFLX for gobs of found money from content that was paid for decades ago and then skipping the churn and burn of recruiting their own subscribers with all kinds of $3 intro gimmicks. (This writer is long NFLX.)

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso bluntly stated, "Disney's going to have to decide, are they committed to streaming going forward. ... They're gonna have to decide, are they a streaming company, or a parks company?"

(Well, given that DIS/NFL hung fans out to dry Monday by making the Chargers-Cardinals game watchable only on their ridiculous ESPN+ streamer (even for people who already pay CNBC's parent to have a bunch of ESPN channels), we're guessing the short-term answer to Steve's question is a half-hearted yes.)

Guy Adami suggested DIS is trading at "19 times, 19 and a half times." (Do we know that's the right number?)

Tim Seymour said there's "very little I think to get excited about" at DIS. Carter Worth said "presumptive lows are in" with DIS, though he admitted it could be a "value trap."

We didn't hear any mention of Arnold Palmer on Fast Money, which is kinda surprising.

Brian Belski predicts the exhaustive buying will take place after Election Day

Brian "6,100" Belski curiously claimed in the opening minutes of Monday's (10/21) Halftime Report, "I believe we're gonna have some sort of a buying exhaustion, uh, after the election, no matter who wins. People wanna put money to work. Because they believe in the stock market."

"Buying exhaustion."

We think, based on the entirety of the comment, that Belski meant that people will buy until they're exhausted after Nov. 5.

That's curious, because it seems here like the markets in September started pricing in a November 2016 election outcome and decided to get ahead of Carl Icahn jumping into the overnight futures at 3 a.m. on the first Wednesday of November.

Or put another way, the guess here is that the election will be sell the news — not exhaustive buying.

On Monday, Joe Terranova said rising 10-year rates are pressuring small caps and real estate.

Amy Raskin said, "If yields are up because people are concerned about the fiscal policies (snicker) of the candidates, that's a problem." Judge said, "Yeah."

Jim Lebenthal said the fact mid caps are doing well "bodes well for the small cap sector (snicker)."

Amy called fiscal policy "actually a really big deal" (snicker).

How do we know the market multiple is 22?

Jim Lebenthal on Monday's (10/21) Halftime Report claimed the stock market is "past fair value at roughly 22 times next year's earnings."

And we couldn't help but wonder, does everyone (including CNBC graphics crew) agree that it's a 22 forward multiple.

Regardless, Jim won't worry about it until January. "Who wants to sell right now," Jim wondered.

Amy Raskin touted IONQ and stated, "We were in Nvidia very early," apparently implying this could do the same thing.

Brian Belski complained, "Everyone's a technician, they all got it all figured out, but no one's, no one's- doing implicit fundamental stock-picking."

Belski said, "You just couldn't wait to jab me, could ya."

Joe Terranova asserted that "a large majority of the activity and volume chases price. It just does."

Amy Raskin trimmed CDNS. Joe spent about 3 minutes saying the technicals don't look as good as the company actually is.

Amy suggested SLB will be great long term, if not the short term.

GM reportedly at 5 times

Brian Belski on Monday's (10/21) Halftime Report admitted he actually owns GM, "for contrarian reasons" (aren't they about due for another strike).

Jim Lenbethal said "it makes me feel good" that Belski owns it. Jim said it's at "5 times earnings" (do we know that for sure?) and can "easily" go to 6 times. Judge didn't take a poll of everyone on the panel including CNBC's graphics crew to determine if others have a different P.E. ratio for GE.

Belski gushed about PHM and said "it's up 455% since we owned it" in 2018. But Joe Terranova cautioned that much of PHM's success has come from Florida, and hurricanes and inventory may pose headwinds. (Honestly we're not really sure how hurricanes would hurt a homebuilder; presumably they would have places that would require rebuilding.)

Once again, there are different forward P.E. numbers mentioned for the same stock on the Halftime Report

Judge on Friday's (10/18) Halftime Report told Jason Snipe that there was talk going into earnings that we had "peak Netflix." (This writer is long NFLX.)

Jason said NFLX just reported its "most profitable quarter ever." Jason said Netflix management can be "balanced in their approach" and "the content library is very rich" and they're making a "foray into live sports."

Jason said that given all the levers at NFLX, "I start to feel like this is not a stock that is expensive." Jason and Judge first said NFLX is trading at 32 times, without saying "forward." Then Judge said it's 36, as did the screen text, and the screen text said "forward." (Honestly, if you're expecting the Halftime Report to provide clarity on what a stock's forward multiple is, you're better off changing the channel.) (By the end of the show, it was probably down to 33.)

Kevin Simpson predicted advertising is the "next catalyst" for NFLX. Stephanie Link admitted "I totally missed it" but wonders, "How come Disney can't get it together." (Well, there's a lengthy answer to that one, but suffice it to say that DIS shouldn't even bother with streaming churn and should've just licensed its content that was made decades ago to NFLX and collect checks while NFLX deals with all the subscriber/marketing stuff.)

Yet another forward P.E. (cont’d)

Judge on Friday's (10/18) Halftime Report said Torsten Slok claims stocks are "overvalued" and says a forward P.E. (snicker) of 22 "implies a 3% annualized return over the coming three years."

That's quite a formula. Nobody on Friday's panel seemed too scared about this call, perhaps because no one at CNBC seems to know what any forward P.E. multiples are; they just grab numbers out of thin air to satisfy whatever comment they're making.

"You've gotta be in cyclicals," Jason Snipe offered.

Judge said Scott Devitt sees attractive risk/reward in AMZN. Jason Snipe said there's a "reacceleration" at AWS. Kevin Simpson said he sold an AMZN 195 call a week ago on Monday and bought it back on Tuesday, and also sold a 192.

Jason Snipe said "it's hard to fight" NVDA. Kevin Simpson predicted this AAPL quarter will be a "sell the news quarter."

Kevin Simpson explained that volatility is higher as the election nears, which is why he's writing a lot of covered calls.

Regarding CVS, "There's some problems there," Jason Snipe said, in a bit of an understatement.

Judge said Tom Lee is touting homebuilders, which he says are entering a "golden 6 months." Stephanie Link said homebuilders are in a "decadelong theme."

Kevin Simpson bought TPL; he said it's a "royalty play on commodities" and "not for the faint of heart." Kevin revealed, "I bought it at 950 just the other day."

Steve Grasso: It’s time for NFLX stock to ‘roll over’

On Thursday's (10/17) Fast Money, Karen Finerman got first crack at NFLX's report. (This writer is long NFLX.)

"Everything to like about this — except the price of the stock," Karen stated, adding, "I wouldn't add here."

Steve Grasso observed that, "Every 4 months, you get a bottoming effect" in NFLX. Steve concluded, "I would be selling this right now."

Guy Adami said NFLX "back and filled" on Thursday back to the 2021 high, a chart that others on CNBC (as well as this page) have noted several times this year. He said, "I would actually buy this strength."

At the end of the discussion, Grasso said of the stock price, "I think it's time for it to roll over."

On UBER/EXPE, Grasso said he doesn't think a deal would be "wasting money," but he doesn't think Dara needs to do it. Dan Nathan though said "this makes a lot of sense." Guy Adami said he's "sort of with Dan on this one."

During the Halftime Report, in anticipation of NFLX earnings, Julia Boorstin mentioned NFLX having "2 games on Christmas Day." Josh Brown said there's a "deceleration" in NFLX subs but said it's "not negative," because counting subs isn't the right metric and skipping it is the right move; "Apple did it 10 years ago."

A target of 6,270

In a bullish gush-fest on Thursday's (10/17) Halftime Report, Judge said Goldman's Scott Rubner hiked his target to 6,270 (snicker).

Judge said "the fact of the matter is, there's still a lot of pent-up demand, it feels like, for stocks." Judge said Todd Boehly (his guest Tuesday in Beverly Hills) "rarely sits down to do an interview" but sees pent-up demand "in a lot of places."

Josh Brown said this is a "classic bull market" that will remove a lot of uncertainty in 3 weeks. In the meantime, tons of things are working, according to Brown.

"England is on fire, ladies and gentlemen," Brown said, also pointing to bitcoin and gold.

Jim Lebenthal questioned why anyone would sell regardless of election uncertainty. "I have no idea how the election's gonna turn out," Jim said, but he said "frankly," even if he knew the outcome now, he'd "defy anyone" to explain how to trade it. (Seriously?)

Josh Brown offered that 3 weeks ago, the reason to sell would be that Kamala Harris raises capital gains taxes at the end of 2025 and maybe they would "make it retroactive for all of 2025." Jim said that's a good point but to get that kind of capital gains hike would require a "Democratic sweep," which Brown said is "not gonna happen." Judge said "the market clearly is not voting in that direction."

Judge said Stan Druckenmiller says it was a "big mistake" to sell all of his NVDA from 800-950.

Gerald Levin saw synergies too

Josh Brown on Thursday's (10/17) Halftime Report praised Dara for exploring a bid for EXPE and said Dara learned from Barry Diller, who Josh said back in the '90s said that internet companies needed to combine and find synergies instead of being stand-alone entities.

Judge said Dan Ives raised his CRWD target to $330. (This writer is long CRWD.) Josh said, "The way that they have overcome this, uh, this issue really should be studied."

Jim Lebenthal and Judge seemed to quibble over whether LNG is "the" top pick at B of A as Jim indicated; Judge said they "probably have a list of top picks that they've probably added it to." Jim said regardless, "it's a great company."

Josh said MMM may be getting a little extended, but he's "willing to stick with it."

Judge said Krinsky is touting a "secondary entry point" into the KWEB. Josh explained that Krinsky is making a "tactical," not "investment," call. Josh said the KWEB moves "drastically" based on news flow. Josh said he's not sure about the investment side, but tactically, Krinsky "has something here." Judge said Tepper is "as tactical as anybody too."

Judge and Josh revisited Josh's recent recommendation of EBAY to Al Michaels; Judge said it's "up 10% since." Josh mentioned holiday shopping and said "I think you can stay with it." After the commercial break, Judge said Al reports "he's still in the name."

Jim actually made DIS his Final Trade.

So far, Sully seems to be getting a fair shake

For a long time now, this page has led the league in calling Brian Sullivan "CNBC's Funniest Anchor."

Over time, we've started to wonder if Sully isn't even CNBC's best anchor.

But here's the problem — Sully doesn't even have his own show. He most recently helmed Last Call (yes, if you questioned why CNBC was doing yet another regular news program at 7 p.m. Eastern, you are among 12 million people), which was canceled in July. At the time, Variety reported that Sully was "expected to stay" at CNBC (except Variety spelled it "Sulliivan" (spellcheck should flag that one)).

On the plus side, Sully has been pinch-hitting everywhere for months, including on the Halftime Report and Fast Money, so viewers at various hours (especially those who could never watch Last Call) are occasionally benefiting from the juice Sully brings to the production.

On the other hand, 1) it's hard to fashion a TV-host career as a utility man, 2) the hours from Worldwide Exchange to Fast Money are killer, and 3) this gentleman deserves a position of stature at this channel.

Back in the day, we used to be more plugged in to decision-making at Englewood Cliffs and could sometimes report a scoop. Nowadays, we honestly don't know what talks have occurred between Sullivan & Sullivan (presumably no relation) (that's Sully and CNBC chieftain KC) as to Sully's future.

We're not asking that anyone be elbowed aside. We just wanna keep seeing Sully on the air.

It seems like, as of now, he's getting some opportunities.

Jenny and Joe argue about whether they’re arguing

Jenny "Multiple" Harrington claimed on Wednesday's (10/16) Halftime Report that DIS is a "pretty nice place to hide out."

Joe Terranova added this comment to Jenny's statement: "I gotta give you this statistic: In the last 10 years, price performance for Disney, up 13.9%, 10 years. ... That's unbelievable."

Jenny then suggested Joe was making an "argument." Joe said, "I'm not making any arguments, I'm just- it's a stat."

Jenny insisted, "This is where you and I always argue-"

Joe protested, "I don't argue! I never argue!"

"No no no, on this, we do," Jenny said, explaining that she recommends buy low, sell high, while Joe recommends buy high, sell higher.

"Debating is different than arguing," Joe concluded the segment.

Here's the deal ... Joe claims he's only providing a "stat." But his point obviously is that DIS has done little in 10 years. What that point overlooks is that the stock was around $190 in 2021, presumably benefiting from the stay-at-home/COVID trade.

That doesn't change Joe's "stat." But it's also a stat that those who bought DIS 10 years ago could well have doubled their money had they simply sold in 2021. It's the suckers who bought in 2021 who should be wondering what they're going to hear first — a turnaround plan from Mr. Iger, or another contract extension.

Weiss calls the ASML report ‘murder-suicide in reverse order’

Steve Weiss in the 7th minute of Wednesday's (10/16) Halftime Report mentioned ASML (snicker), his recent buy.

But it wasn't until the 21st minute that guest host Sully asked Weiss about the stock.

Weiss explained that he said on Monday he started an "initial position" and stressed that he doesn't take full positions "anywhere near" an earnings report.

Citing the early release and order book guidance, Weiss said of ASML, "This was like a murder-suicide in reverse order." Sully questioned why, if Weiss liked it Monday, he didn't buy more on the early-release earnings report. Weiss said it's "more expensive now."

On fact-check patrol, we rewatched Monday's (10/14) show and indeed heard Weiss say his ASML stake is "not" a large position. He said he has "lots of room to build on it, however."

Weiss on Wednesday said Jensen is "almost as overexposed as Snoop Dogg."

Jenny perhaps underestimates how many people are reading IT’S NOT AN OPTION!!!!

In the 13th minute of Wednesday's (10/16) Halftime Report, guest host Sully brought up Barry Bannister (Barry hasn't been mentioned on the show in a long time), saying Barry made a "fascinating call."

Sully said Barry's call is that the market goes up another 8-10%, then will "crash 25% from there next year."

Jenny "Multiple" Harrington said Barry's call is "absolute plausible," though she questions how much of a crash there could be given that the "strongest supports of the market remain intact."

Steve Weiss contended that Barry is "generally always bearish." Weiss said Barry used to be a "machinery analyst" and maybe following a group that trades at 10-12 times affects Barry's assessment of the entire market. Weiss said he agrees with Jenny that maybe a crash could occur, but "the catalyst isn't there."

Sully called the 50-basis-point Fed cut "bizarre"; Weiss said it wasn't bizarre, it was "justified."

Joe Terranova questioned what Stifel clients, or anyone else actually, does with Barry's info.

Sully questioned why not buy long-dated puts as a hedge for Barry's call. Jenny said, "Most people out there, it's not really that easy to buy long-dated puts ... us professionals know how to do that, I betcha over half or 75% of the people out there can't just do that easily."

According to Stifel's website, Barry's title is Managing Director and Chief Equity Strategist, Macro & Portfolio Strategy.

Joe had opened the show saying "we're waiting on the Russell to come out of its earnings recession."

Jenny said, "There's a really high chance that inflation picks up. I just don't think it's in the short term." Jenny cited "seriously huge national- national debt levels (snicker)."

Apparently RIO can’t go down

Guest host Sully on Wednesday's (10/16) Halftime Report said Loop raised its NFLX target to 800. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Steve Weiss said he trimmed his NFLX stake to right-size his position, which is maybe his favorite hobby within the investing space.

Weiss correctly said it seems like "every day," someone is raising their NFLX target. Joe Terranova said NFLX can keep raising prices for a while (he and Weiss agreed that at some point, that won't be true, but we're not near that point yet) so that's why the outlook is good but cautioned "it's a volatile stock" that can easily go up or down 5-10%.

Joe cautioned that IBKR could dip to the 50-day; if so, Joe said, "it's nothing more than a pause."

Jenny Harrington said "worst case scenario" for RIO is "stay flattish" and collect the 6% dividend.

Kari Firestone said ADSK has some activists involved and is being pressured to improve margins but has "been on a tear lately."

Bob Pisani reported that buybacks are booming. Sully wondered if there's always going to be a "Big Tech Buyback Put" under the stocks.

Sully wondered if Todd Boehly was going to be in New York on Wednesday night for the Dodger game.

Judge says nothing about Weiss’ ASML bungle

Judge opened Tuesday's (10/15) Halftime Report saying he was at the "CAIS Alternative Investments Summit."

Judge's questions from Beverly Hills, including in his on-site interview with Baird Vice Chair John Taft on the 60/40 Portfolio, were plagued by the background racket of all the CAIS Summiteers that sounded like Judge was broadcasting from just outside the doors of The Scorpions playing "Rock You Like A Hurricane." #acoustics

Judge was joined by Michele Trogni of Zinnia and Todd Boehly of Eldridge and had the same situation. Things improved a lot in the 2nd half of the show when most of the lobby cleared out and Boehly told Judge, "I think we're in a process of having lots of M&A get started."

Judge told Boehly that it seems like "you can't either turn on the TV these days" or open a financial newspaper "and not have the question asked, 'Is private credit a bubble?'" Boehly said, "If you're not a practitioner, it's hard to sit here and kind of suggest that something's a bubble."

Judge asked Boehly about ownership of sports teams. The billionaire class is growing, and "the number of teams isn't gonna continue to expand," Boehly explained.

Judge said a Yankees-Dodgers World Series "hasn't happened since I think 1981." Boehly claimed "there's pretty much nothing like a Dodgers-Yankees World Series." Judge never explained why Bowie Kuhn decided to let in the Dodgers and not the Cincinnati Reds that year.

From the panelist crew that was 3,000 miles from Beverly Hills, Joe Terranova said David Solomon was "countering some of the pessimism that we've heard from Jamie Dimon."

Josh Brown said people expected "election chaos right now," but "it's not the case," and, "You're probably gonna get a divided government." Judge, perhaps because of the din at the CAIS summit, didn't question whether we really might get a divided government.

Josh said SHAK is "probably in the 2nd or 3rd inning" in terms of global potential.

Joe pointed out the low point of NFLX's chart over the last 4 years but touted how the company can focus on growth while rivals have to worry about profits. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Judge got the first TV interview ever with Ian Charles of Arctos.

‘I hate to agree with Weiss’

Monday's (10/14) Halftime Report featured guest host Sully at Englewood Cliffs with Bill Baruch; other panelists were remote.

Bill said he's seeing a "real formidable breakout" in the market.

Bill said "my bet" for the next couple months is that "the Mag 7, the tech stocks, are going to rally from here and outperform."

Grandpa Steve Weiss said he doesn't think the state of the economy "necessarily supports where the broad market is" but said there's upside in "individiual stocks."

Weiss took a dig at CLF (time frame unclear), saying it's "down, probably about 50% or so." Weiss' sound went out during the end of his remarks (as he was talking about Lina Khan), prompting Sully to hilariously cringe.

Weiss took out a new position in ASML. Weiss made some kind of extended valuation argument.

Bryn Talkington said, "In theory, we should have that year-end rally," but she's noticed the 10-year has risen from 3.60 to "4.13 today."

Sarat Sethi, who had a quiet show, said, "I hate to agree with Weiss, but bottom's up is, uh, where you gotta be."

Sully complained about the officiating in the Virginia Tech-Miami game.

Bill disclosed he bought the EEM. Sully explained, "I don't like the name, because I don't view it as an emerging markets ETF at all," and asked Bill "is this a China play for you?" Bill said "yeah, absolutely." Bill also bought AS, "it did break out above its, its IPO price." Bill referenced DECK as a stock he liked that never gave him a pullback opportunity.

Bryn said if she wants to play China, she'd do it through commodities rather than single stocks such as ALB.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman made the same prosperity-is-just-around-the-corner argument for C that Jim Lebenthal was recently making (and has made for years); Karen said C has been slow to get out from under government decrees, "but eventually that will happen." Guy Adami made a good joke about Kensho and noted how, according to Guy, GS typically sells off upon earnings.

Judge actually declares an important market truth (that some of us declare all the time) (a/k/a Both Jim and Weiss are wrong about C/JPM P.E. ratios, according to CNBC’s graphic)

We didn't think during a humdrum conversation about Citigroup stock that Judge would be making a major pronouncement.

But that's what occurred on Friday's (10/11) Halftime Report when Judge carped at Jim Lebenthal's comment that C is trading at 9 times forward.

Judge said he's heard "for years" the argument about banks trading below tangible book. "That in and of itself is not an accelerator necessarily for what a stock price is gonna do," Judge said.

Ah. Judge gets it. (He actually softened it a bit too much with "necessarily.") P.E. ratio/tangible book/any other metric does not predict where a stock price goes. We wish some of these panelists (such as Jim/Citi) would show proof that C's P.E. ratio or tangible book has ever signaled where the stock is going.

Jim's explanation is that C trading below tangible book is just an "inanity" that will be "corrected" (snicker).

Judge said he's been hearing "at minimum for 5 years" the argument about trading below tangible book, but that argument is "not necessarily good enough." Ya think?

Steve Weiss claimed the P.E. for C is the same as the P.E. for JPM even though JPM is at 2 times tangible book. Jim said "actually no," it's "12 vs. 9." Weiss said "that's not what I show" and it's "pretty close." Jim wondered what it will take to get Weiss to buy C; Weiss suggested Jim "would probably have to sell it."

Vehicles that drive paying passengers around town — they’re called ‘buses’ (cont’d)

During Friday's (10/11) Halftime Report, Judge said analysts seemed to agree there was "little substance" in Tesla's robotaxi rollout the night before.

Judge asked Bryn Talkington, who wasn't on the panel but joined remotely, for an opinion. Bryn pointed out how the stock surged in the summer on "no real fundamental news," so there apparently was "so much hype" going into this event that's responsible for the stock selloff.

Bryn said we'll get "details" about this project during the Oct. 23 earnings call. Josh Brown, who wasn't on the show at all, apparently messaged Judge and crowed about UBER being the big winner from Thursday night's presentation. He's correct, the TSLA event lifted an overhang on UBER. (This writer has no position in UBER, used to own UBER until it kept yo-yo'ing in the 60s/70s.)

Steve Weiss expressed skepticism of the TSLA project, saying Waymo doesn't make money and it's unclear when it will and it's the leader in the space.

A couple hours later on Closing Bell, Dan Ives joined Judge and defended TSLA's big reveal: "In terms of the next few years, I believe it's a game-changer to the broader story."

Judge said, "You saw what might be. Not what is."

Genie Out Of The Bottle Alert: Larry Summers is warning about inflation

Steve Weiss at the top of Friday's (10/11) Halftime Report said the PPI changes "any thought" of 50 points at the next meeting to 25.

Weiss admitted, "Everything seems to be working nicely," but he questioned whether even a great earnings season will be "muted" by concerns about the election.

Weiss said, "Everybody wants to see a divided Congress."

"Right," Judge agreed.

Jim Lebenthal said, "It's hard to find a reason to sell here." Jim said those who cited "valuation" as a reason to sell are "flat-out wrong," it's not that valuation doesn't matter, Jim said, it's just that "it doesn't matter in the 4th quarter of this year."

Well, that's another interesting way of putting it. Jim thinks valuation matters at least some of the time ... but not in Q4 2024.

Judge mentioned Ed Yardeni's "outlier view" of a day ago on Closing Bell (see below) of "one and done" by the Fed.

Jenny Harrington of course tried to pour cold water on things; "what we know is we know the pendulum always swings too far," Jenny said, citing "capital flows" to the stock market.

Judge reported on Ricky Sandler's tweet from a day earlier in which Ricky suggested buying the "vast array of below mega cap companies that have interesting equity stories." Weiss said of Sandler, "he's not positioned in those names" and that "reasonable people disagree."

But Jim said he thinks Ricky is "dead on."

A couple hours later on Closing Bell, Judge told Loretta Mester (in what was an excellent interview) that Lawrence Summers is tweeting about how the Fed shouldn't cut too fast.

Tom Lee has the funky psychedelic backdrop going again

Judge on Friday's (10/11) Halftime Report said some pros have told him that they're buying Russell calls for "early next year." (We've been hearing about how great this trade is gonna be for what, oh, 3 years running?)

Steve Weiss said he's thought about doing that but hasn't "pulled the trigger yet."

Jenny Harrington curiously asked Jim Lebenthal what he's telling clients what to do with new bonus money in January. Jim said "I'm not gonna worry about January just yet" but that "normally," in a year like this, the Q4 rally "crescendoes into the first part of the new year." (Translation: Jim's not telling anyone to sell for a while.) (But unclear what they should buy with that bonus money.)

Judge said Guggenheim pinned an 810 target on NFLX. (This writer is long NFLX.) Weiss said he's still got an "uncomfortably large position" but the company still has "great flexbility" in ability to raise prices. Judge said someone made a negative call about a week ago at 700. (What Judge didn't say was that 700 was around the previous high in late 2021, and observers (at least if you watch Fast Money) had been split as to whether 700 would be a double top, or a breakthrough support level.)

On Closing Bell, Judge's star guest was Tom Lee (ah, wait a minute, maybe it was Loretta Mester) (ah, maybe it was Dan Ives), who said he's a little cautious right now because "I think investors wanna see how- who ends up becoming president after Election Day."

Kevin: NFLX can charge ‘whatever they want’

Liz Young Thomas suggested early on Thursday's (10/10) Halftime Report that "the market is confused today."

Josh Brown chided those who called for "50 and then 50 and then 50" after an August "weather event in Texas." Kevin Simpson sort of chuckled at Goldman dropping its MSFT target from 515 all the way to ... 506. He said he'd be "very happy" if it gets there.

Judge said Morgan Stanley lifted NFLX to 820 and Oppenheimer is up to $775. (This writer is long NFLX.) Kevin said he thinks it'll go higher; "They can charge us whatever we- whatever they want, and we're gonna pay for it."

That's exactly right. This page will not necessarily agree that NFLX can charge "whatever," but it can definitely charge more than it's charging.

Judge said CRWD is up 100% since the October 2022 low. (This writer is long CRWD.) Josh gushed about the "reputational comeback" from the outage.

People buying NVDA calls; who knew

Josh Brown said on Thursday's (10/10) Halftime Report that it's almost a "horse race" between the Mag 7 and the S&P 493, "and you're making money with both trades."

Judge said NVDA is up 8% on the week and claimed "there's a tremendous amount of bullish options activity around Nvidia going out into the spring of 2025." Josh said there's been "monster, monster call-buying at the March, uh, strikes from like 150 all the way up to 189."

Kevin Simpson articulated how much NVDA needs to rise (basically to $163-$164) just to break even on a $150 option that costs $13-$14. Judge said Fast Money's Dan Nathan reports that NVDA call volume is 2x the put volume.

Josh said META is staking out a "battleground" vs. AAPL over the next portal to the internet, which Zuck apparently thinks can be AR (snicker).

AMD was giving CNBC interviews Thursday and announcing a bunch of things; Josh said that "the best thing that could happen for Nvidia, honestly, is for AMD to stay in the fight, so they're not fighting an antitrust battle a year from now."

Josh suggested, "I think ultimately, Tesla probably ends up doing a deal with Uber."

Judge says he won’t discuss 10 reasons for buying a stock

Joe Terranova wasn't on the Halftime Report Thursday (10/10) but he was on Closing Bell, and he sounded incredulous at guest Ed Yardeni's suggestion that the Fed might not do any more cuts this year.

"There would have to be something very troubling in the inflation numbers for them to sit on their hands for the rest of the year," Joe said.

On the Halftime Report, Judge chuckled that Piper Sandler was giving "10 reasons" to buy CRM and ADBE.

Judge told Josh that Morgan Stanley reiterated underweight at MMM. "The problem with Morgan Stanley is they just don't know what time it is. Like, they're focused on the past," Brown said. "It's not overvalued by any stretch."

Josh said PYPL is "barely down" on Bernstein's cut to neutral.

Kevin Simpson sold WMT October 82 covered calls and MRK October 110 covered calls that expire Oct. 18.

Kevin said he's not sure he agrees with Stephen Tusa that HON's spinoff is dilutive and said he'll buy it on pullbacks.

Kevin said PEP is "the 13th-largest name in the Q's."

Judge said at PFE (snicker), a couple former execs who supported Jeff Smith are now backing current management. Josh contended, "Pfizer's problems are large but fixable."

Josh's Final Trade was IOT; he said it's a "mike-drop chart."

Guest-hosting Thursday's Fast Money, Kelly Evans called Mike Khouw "Mike Cow" and seemed to immediately sense a mistake.

Jim somehow gets a 2nd straight day to talk up GM

The Post 9 panel of Joe Terranova, Shannon Saccocia, Jason Snipe and Jim Lebenthal on Wednesday (10/9) all basically endorsed the stock market. Jim bluntly stated, "Is anyone really going to sell getting into the 4th quarter here?"

Jason Snipe brought up Jensen's use of the word "insane" and echoed Jim, "Why would you wanna get out of this market at this stage?"

Joe said MSFT is "not trading well," neither is Alphabet, and AMZN is down 5% in 12 days, so this is "idiosyncratic" as to what's working/not working.

Judge somehow asked Jim to repeat his GM spiel on Wednesday, pegged to the hook of the JPMorgan price target hike. Jim said "they gave enough" at Investor Day.

Joe said he disagrees with Wolfe's call to take profits in insurance stocks.

On Fast Money, Guy Adami quoted "Wall Street" in a discussion about Alphabet: "The breakup value is higher."

Judge & Josh’s assessment of GM was doing great, until ...

Normally, GM conversations on the Halftime Report aren't exactly must-see TV, but Judge and Josh Brown did make things interesting Tuesday (10/8).

Jim Lebenthal spoke of what he wants to hear on GM's Investor Day. What he doesn't want to hear is any "near-term issues" with profitability like Stellantis revealed.

Judge questioned, what if the "most exciting thing they're doing" is buying back stock.

Jim said "that's the bear argument." Judge said the bear argument is that "they got a lot of cars sittin' around" and pointed to Sarat Sethi saying on the show recently that he sold the stock and "called it a terrible investment."

Jim protested that he wasn't on the show with Sarat and insisted, a couple of times, "it isn't a terrible investment."

Jim protested to both Judge and Josh Brown that GM's multiple is so low because some people think the numbers "are gonna fall off a cliff," and Jim doesn't think the numbers will fall off the cliff.

Josh said GM is selling at a 5 times multiple "because people understand that in the future, this is just not gonna be the same business that it has been for the last hundred years."

Hmmmmm.

Josh, who said, "The year is 2040, Taylor Swift is president (snicker)," continued that cars sit idle 96% of the day. Josh said entrepreneurs such as Dara and Elon are taking these "idle hours ... and they have these cars moving, circulating, through the towns, through the cities ... taking people on rides when they need those rides."

Josh added, "That is what's depressing the multiple. ... It's a reality that I think hasn't yet dawned on people."

Well, this page will disagree with Brown. The multiple is not low because of a ride-share fantasy. The multiple is low because this company never makes a product that everyone starts gushing about.

Brown's supposed 2040 automotive scene misses some key facts: 1) Regardless of who owns the cars, they're going to be sitting around 96% of the time from 7 p.m. to 7 a.m. Everyone wants them on the roads around 8 a.m., 5 p.m. and after the ballgame ends. Why would all the cars that take people to work at 8 p.m. still be "circulating" around with no riders at 10 a.m.? (And there would be fewer people riding in cars in general given that the marginal cost of renting a ride is far higher than the marginal cost of driving the same distance with a car a person already owns.) 2) Most people will find it more cost-effective to own their own car that they can drive any time rather than constantly pay to go everywhere.

Josh downplayed "the only bear case" for UBER, which is that Elon will launch the "Uber killer."

Bryn gives RBLX short case a fair shake, says company should refute many of the claims

Judge on Tuesday's (10/8) Halftime Report asked Bryn Talkington about Hindenburg's short position in RBLX.

Bryn offered a lot of thoughtful commentary, suggesting the company can probably shoot down some of the assertions but should heed others.

Bryn said it's a "very long report," and "I would think the stock would be down more with all of the accusations." Bryn said "one of the big ones is that they're saying that Roblox is conflating people with daily active users." Bryn said that sounds "easily refutable" by the company if the allegation is "not true."

Bryn said she's holding the stock but apparently wants to see the company do more about protecting kids. Judge and Bryn noted the company's statement, but Bryn said, "They need to refute these claims. They're not willy-nilly."

Rick Rieder ‘uncomfortable’ with market multiples, but ...

Star guest Rick Rieder on Tuesday's (10/8) Halftime Report stated, "I feel uncomfortable at these multiples being long, but there's so much cash on the sideline."

Judge asked Rick to articulate why he's not high on small caps (snicker). Rick said it's a "fair" argument about the multiple but that "bigger companies continue to grow the moat."

Jim Lebenthal said the argument he keeps hearing against small caps is "this is not the place in the cycle." Jim said he sees small caps as a "ripe case for another pattern to be broken."

Rick said he agrees with that cycle argument, at least as far as easing rates to come out of a downturn, except that right now, "the funds rate is still restrictive," and they're just bringing it into alignment with inflation.

Rick told Judge, "I don't really understand the hard landing/soft landing thing," rather, "I actually think the U.S. is a service-related economy; I know I call it the satellite economy all the time. Satellites tend to- they don't really land, they just get tired over time."

Jim suggested rates are staying higher "because the economy is a heckuva lot stronger than people expect."

Bryn Talkington pointed out that "going into October of an election year, very normal to trade down, especially the first half of October."

Judge noticed at the beginning of the show that it sounded like Josh Brown was speaking from a cavern in his opening remarks.

Jim said "the one thing" that would worry him about QCOM is that they "do something stupid like buy Intel."

Josh noted in Final Trades that PYPL has an "8 handle."

Belski insists those in the business 15 years or less don’t know how to stock-pick

On Monday's (10/7) Halftime Report, Judge said Piper (he called it "Piper Jaffray" before correcting himself; "I've been here a long time" (snicker)) raised its NFLX target to $800 from 650, while Barclays dropped its target to 550. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Brian Belski, long NFLX, insisted "this is a thousand-dollar stock."

Judge said there's a noticeable "delta" between the Piper and Barclays price targets that's "remarkable." Joe Terranova said it's about the valuation. Joe questioned "rhetorically" if NFLX is losing market share to other streamers; he concluded that the others are focused on trying to be profitable while NFLX is free to focus on growth.

Meanwhile, Belski claimed, "The majority of Wall Street uh has- has been in the business 10 to 15 years. So all they've done is chase indices or looked at ETFs."

Judge scoffed to Bryan, "Oh, but your- your- but your 30 years give you a, a, a richer, uh, uh, a richness that they don't have. Are we goin' there again? Please tell me we're not goin' there again."

"We're not goin' there again," Belski promised, explaining that institutional clients "don't actually know what stock-picking is" because "all they've done is chase things."

Bill Baruch bought a January 135/150 XOM call spread. Joe said he expects XOM to be a trillion-dollar company.

Do we hear 6,200?

In a setting that brought back tired memories of the pandemic era, Judge for Monday's (10/7) Halftime Report was parked at Englewood Cliffs on Monday, with only Joe Terranova at the desk; everyone else was remote.

Joe advised, "You stay with the trend."

Judge said Tony Pasquariello says to "stick with the primary trend in the best stuff." Judge said David Kostin upped his 5,600 to 6,000, "so you've got some chasers."

Bill Baruch, stationed at a different part of HQ, said he agrees that Brian Belski's (who was also on the show) 6,100 is "very doable," and getting there "could be a bit of a trader's paradise" as it could be a "bumpy path" through the election.

Judge said B of A in fact predicts a "stock-picker's paradise (snicker)."

Joe claimed Tony's note advised "staying with the winners." Judge clarified that Tony is saying "stay with the best stuff."

Joe said the Fed cut was a "sell the news moment" because the Russell peaked on the afternoon of the announcement, and yields bottomed the day before. Joe said he's "not in love" with cyclicals; he wants to stick with "what has worked in 2024."

Belski trimmed HD and MCD in his value portfolio because he added LULU, which has been "crushed." Belski also bought SO. He sold AMP and ALLY to fund it, even though he hailed how AMP "did not even take TARP money."

Belski said PFE still has a "COVID hangover." Joe Terranoa said PFE has had "significant managerial missteps." Bill Baruch talked up ABBV.

Anastasia Amoroso barely got a chance.

A little later on Power Lunch, star guest Tom Lee admitted small caps have been "disappointing" despite being "within a few percentage points of an all-time high," but Tom thinks it's "just a matter of time" before they rally.

Stan Druckenmiller emailed Bloomberg

Judge on Friday's (10/4) Halftime Report aired the clip from the morning of Savita saying "This is Goldilocks."

Rob Sechan offered, "it's Goldilocks on steroids." Jason Snipe said he's not sure it's Goldilocks; "I think we are priced for perfection." Jim Lebenthal stated, "I really think we're gonna crescendo into year-end."

Steve Liesman introduced the idea of no cut in November, which he said is only a "very slight probability."

Judge said Stan Druckenmiller has "made some comments, um, to another outlet (snicker) via email," in which Stan hopes the Fed isn't "trapped by forward guidance the way they were in 2021." Steve said he partly agrees with Stan's comments but said the Fed has said it's "recalibrating" to match inflation, which has come down and "justifies the Fed's rate cuts."

Judge jabbed with Jim over Jim's head-scratching contention that "some of these" earnings forecasts are baking in "recessionary outcomes." Judge correctly said "Not really," and then tangled up "inflationary" when he meant "recessionary" (corrected himself a few seconds later).

Judge said VST is "up 75& in a month," and even repeated that information. Rob Sechan's got it. Rob noted it's a "very attractive" name but is "no longer cheap," and he wouldn't be surprised to see it "consolidate a little bit."

A $130 target on a $240 stock

In the category of head-scratchers, Judge didn't ask panelists for "Megalopolis" reviews (see below) on Thursday's (10/3) Halftime Report said JPMorgan raised its TSLA target from 115 (snicker) to 130 (snicker) but reiterated "underweight" (snicker).

Bryn Talkington said, "I don't know what JPMorgan's talkin' about."

Josh Brown opened the program saying how "Mr. Partridge" would just say that this is just a bull market.

Bryn said there's "animal spirits around AI" and advised, "Don't fight the Fed," plus there's "China stimulus." (Judge didn't bring up the fact Stan Druckenmiller is not impressed by China's stimulus.)

Josh said that with Jensen talking about "insane" demand, you have to stick with NVDA. Bryn said Jensen is the "ultimate salesperson" who "delivers the goods" and later made NVDA her Final Trade. Kevin Simpson said of NVDA, "At some point, this trade will burn out like they all do, but I don't think that the runway's any time in the near future."

Kate Rooney joined to recap what Judge praised as her "big interview" earlier with Sarah Friar.

Dee Bosa reported on ways that Google's cooking up to get ads in AI search.

Josh Brown offered a bunch of reasons for and against owning GOOGL; he decided it's "a little bit of a tough trade" and maybe a "better investment than a trade."

Kevin Simpson said he "absolutely" would buy AMZN on weakness. Josh said if it falls Thursday, it would be the 8th straight losing day, the longest streak since 2019. (On Fast Money, they said Thursday was only 7 straight down days.) The 2nd-longest was 9 days in 2009, Brown said.

On AAPL, Bryn said, "There's no one sleeping in tents outside of the iPhone store like we saw in the first half of the decade," but "I do think though the China stimulus, uh, could be very good though."

Excitement over a 1-3 team

Late in Thursday's (10/3) Halftime Report, Michael Ozanian was back (that's CNBC's new sports-reporting initiative) to talk about the Miami Dolphins' sale of a minority stake to private equity, which (ding-ding-ding) probably allows Mike to upgrade his NFL team market value calculations.

Judge said this would be the first NFL-P.E. deal that we're "likely to see a lot more of." Josh Brown said the P.E. crowd is "practically based" in Miami, so it's sort of "emblematic" for the Dolphins to be the first P.E. team.

Honestly, we can't figure out why Judge is more interested in this sleepy subject that affects maybe 75 individuals in the entire country than in the NFL games themselves, but whatever. (Ah, we get it — it's a current topic just as CNBC's sports-reporting upgrade went live.)

Kevin Simpson bought CME, citing recent history of a special dividend in December.

Kevin also bought VNOM, a stock that's been championed by Bryn Talkington.

Josh Brown wasn't sold on the Chicken Big Mac.

Josh Brown said Berkshire's selling of BAC doesn't seem like a sign that Berkshire sees "something wrong, per se, with the banking sector."

Judge should ask Weiss to review ‘Megalopolis’

As everyone on CNBC's Halftime Report basically treads water in terms of stock market recommendations ("Wait for the Fed!" "No, Wait for earnings!" "No, wait for the next CPI!...."), it suddenly occurred to us that it would be awesome for Judge to devote part of the show to a review of Francis Coppola's "Megalopolis."

Then again, Judge had so much difficulty Wednesday (10/2) digesting Steve Weiss' very simple Humana trade, which Judge somehow found "too confusing," we're not sure that Judge would give "Megalopolis" more than about 30 seconds. (That's 30 seconds of watching it in the theater, not 30 seconds of discussing it on the show, though we'd be surprised if it actually got that much.)

(If Jim Lebenthal watched "Megalopolis," he'd surely be gesturing at the screen, "The economy is. NOT. THAT. BAD!!!!")

In the latter half of the show, Judge noted HUM's bad day and said Weiss bought it. "I bought it on the news. So it's actually been a good little trade. I'm only gonna be in it for a trade," Weiss explained.

Judge said, "Here's my problem (snicker)," he wants as much "context" as Weiss can give so they don't give viewers "the impression (snicker) that this is some thing that's gonna be around for a while."

Weiss said he bought it when the stock was down $60 in the morning; it was down $45 as he spoke. Weiss did impressively lay out the issues the stock faces and concluded that if it moves up to the point where it's only down $40, "I'm gone."

OK. We get it completely. Weiss is playing the knee-jerk reaction, which often softens later in the day, making early-in-the-day buyers the smart buyers. (Not always, but often.)

Weiss clearly isn't interested in waiting this out for weeks. And he presumably cashed out shortly after the program, as HUM finished the day down only $32.

Anyway, back to the $40 drop ... Judge said that's only a "4 buck difference" from where the stock was currently at. Jenny Harrington questioned putting on a trade "for 2%," meaning 2% more than where it was at that moment. Weiss said that with a sizable trade, it's still money.

"You see," Weiss told Jenny, "You use a benchmark of what the S&P do (sic grammar) (we think); I use a benchmark of how much money am I making."

Judge concluded, "Next time, we're not even gonna mention it," because it's "too confusing for the viewers." Weiss said he didn't "lobby" for talking about his HUM trade.

Weiss calls Jenny ‘baby’

Judge opened Wednesday's (10/2) Halftime Report with a scoop, saying sources tell him OpenAI's funding round "has now closed," and it raised "a little more than 6½ billion."

Judge asserted, "This is a big deal."

Steve Weiss said he "passed on it," because "it's in the hype stage" and it's "too difficult to pick the winners and losers."

Weiss predicted "continued volatility" through the presidential election. Weiss said the dockworkers union hasn't endorsed either presidential candidate.

Weiss said it's likely Israel will make a "statement" by "going after" Iran.

Judge first assured he wasn't downplaying the impact on human beings' lives of the Middle East conflict, but, "The market has generally viewed that kind of thing as noise."

Joe Terranova said he finds the $70 oil price "somewhat astonishing."

In a lengthy conversation about NKE, Joe said he'd probably buy LULU before NKE. Jenny Harrington said, "My husband refers to my Hokas as my orthopedic sneakers."

Weiss made his usual sneaker commentary, prompting Judge to scoff that nobody should turn to Weiss for fashion insight and prompting Jenny to ask Weiss what shoes he's wearing.

"Stan Smiths, baby," Weiss told Jenny.

Joe claimed that because the JOET has owned MELI since April 2023 and has a "54% gain," the ETF has "time on our side." (Translation: Joe's OK if it loses money from here because he can always say he made a profit on it.) That's a curious way of assessing whether a stock is going higher or lower. He said MELI might be taking a "pause" that refreshes.

Joe said there's "very strong tailwinds" for APO and other asset managers. Joe praised Blue Owl and its owners "who just closed on the Tampa Bay Lightning yesterday" for $1.8 billion.

Judge said Stan Druckenmiller has "no interest" in China as long as Xi Jinping is in charge. Weiss said he doesn't expect Tepper to be in the China trade on a "long-term basis," and that Druckenmiller is "right from a longer-term basis," and Jeff DeGraaf, who says to buy China, is "purely technical," so all 3 positions make sense. Judge stammered through explaining that Tepper and Druckenmiller think very highly of each other's strategy, so it's curious that they're on opposite sides of this. Weiss pointed out Tepper "could be out at any time." Judge concluded, "2 Pittsburgh guys."

‘Everybody needs to hear’ Jim: ‘I really don’t care’ what GM has done for the last 5 years

Jim Lebenthal on Tuesday's (10/1) Halftime Report speculated on why Sarat Sethi (who wasn't on Tuesday's show) may have sold GM (see below), perhaps because it finally went up this year.

Then Jim said to Judge, "I have to tell you just straight up, and everybody needs to hear me on this: I really don't care what it's done over the last 1, 5 or 10 years."

"You don't care what it's done for the last 1, 5 or 10 years?????" Judge asked, incredulously.

"I don't. It tells me nothing about where it's going forward," Jim said.

"What do you own it for, the enjoyment of saying you own it- Gen- you own General Motors stock?" Judge heckled.

"It tells me nothing about where it's going forward," Jim insisted.

Judge’s crew apparently not terribly concerned about port strike

On Tuesday's (10/1) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal said the market's got rate cuts, inflation easing and employment hanging in there, "all of which bodes well for retail."

Judge chuckled, "Sorry, but, I have a hard time believing that- that- the- the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points and maybe they go 25, again, and then the people who were having a hard time dealing with the rise in inflation and had already been tapped out are all of a sudden gonna say, 'Hey, you know what, let's go to the mall, because Jay Powell just cut 50 basis points.'"

Jim said, "Your point is well made, but it's not just that."

Jim provided the latest from the Atlanta Fed, as he often does; "2 and a half percent today."

Josh Brown said "the average stock is trouncing the index," that 328 stocks beat the S&P, "by a lot," in Q3.

Josh lamented getting stopped out of SN despite being "right all along" on the stock.

Kari Firestone admitted KMX "has not been a great stock" but said there's been "improvement" in the last quarter.

Judge said the 60/40 Portfolio has reportedly been having a big year, but Barron's is saying it's "flashing a warning."

Weiss takes issue with Joe’s declaration that the jobs report could steer investors to ‘lower quality’ stocks

Judge on Monday's (9/30) Halftime Report was once again suggesting Tony Pasquariello's latest note is gospel.

Judge said to his panel that Tony is suggesting that figuring out this market is as simple as the Fed's easing while the economy is "picking up speed."

Joe Terranova agreed and tossed in China stimulus.

Joe said if there's a "very strong unemployment report," he'd be "more open to owning some of the lower-quality areas of the market and small caps themselves (sic last word redundant)."

Steve Weiss said he agrees "in general" with Tony's points, but, "It's never, ever that simple." Judge admitted, "Oh believe me, I've simplified it." (What kind of note, exactly, did Tony put out? A flowchart?)

Weiss said data is "more mixed" and you can't conclude that the economy is "much better" and "trending higher"; he said the consumer is "weakening."

Then Weiss told Joe he's "got some questions" and "I was unsure as to what you were saying, if we get a strong jobs report, then you're gonna be forced to go into- you're gonna look at going into lower quality."

Joe responded, "If you get a strong jobs report, you have to be open to the premise that the market will begin to allocate in lower-quality areas."

Weiss countered, "If you get a strong jobs report, then it's unlikely the Fed goes 50, they'll go 25, because you don't start with 50 and then do nothing-"

"I don't- I don't need the- I don't need- Look, I'm not excited about going to low-quality areas of the market or small caps themselves (sic redundant again) but I don't need the Fed to go 50."

Weiss explained that "the simplest way" to make money "is buying quality."

Despite this conversation about the jobs report, Joe stated, "I believe when you go into the 4th quarter, you wanna own stocks that are showing strong performance year to date. You wanna buy that momentum."

"What about month to date," Judge wondered. Joe said tax-loss harvesting happens in October, "and it happens based on where we are for the year."

Weiss said he's "not so sure" how much China stimulus will work: "I think they do a lot of saving before they do a lot of deploying of capital."

‘Longer than a week,’ markets expect Biden to step in

On Monday's (9/30) Fast Money, Guy Adami started things off saying it's "amazing" that the stock market doesn't seem concerned about the dockworkers' labor situation.

Guy must've found it amazing that Judge didn't spend any time on it at Halftime.

Guy said if a strike happens (it did, overnight Monday-Tuesday, when this review was posted), it's "probably gonna be somewhat drawn out."

Karen Finerman offered, "I think the Biden administration is loath to step in here."

Courtney Garcia said markets may not be reacting to the port situation because "there's been a lot of preordering" ahead of it, and "if it goes longer than a week, people are expecting Biden probably will step in."

Doubtful that Judge has seen the Marisol exhibit at Jeffrey Gundlach’s art museum yet

Judge on Monday's (9/30) Halftime Report asked Steve Weiss if Weiss agrees with "your guy" (Tepper) about "Buy everything" related to China.

Weiss stammered, "First of all, he's been in BABA for a while, you know, and uh, and he's been right, right."

Sarat Sethi sold GM last week, saying he owned it "too long," for "over 5 years" and adding, "It's been a horrible investment," which is a lot differently than how Jim Lebenthal always describes it. Sarat mentioned "peak earnings" and a "huge amount of supply of autos."

Judge said Morgan Stanley made ADSK a top pick. Joe Terranova praised recent earnings and said it's "13% below their high in 2021," always a favorite metric of CNBCers.

Joe bought EQT and compared how well the stock has done (267%) vs. nat gas (27%) in the last 5 years. "This is about power demand" for data centers, Joe said.

Sarat touted PYPL, a stock that has recently caught fire; why it has caught fire, we're not really sure about.

Judge grilled Weiss over QXO being "down 78%" for the quarter. Weiss said he doesn't know who was buying at "100, 150, 200; I got in at 9.14" and "I'm up nicely" and added at 11 and 13.

Sully declares OPEC is ‘not gonna defend a price target’

About a quarter of the way into Friday's (9/27) Halftime Report, guest host Sully pointed to the camera and made a grand statement:

"I talk to OPEC nations verbally, over text, WhatsApp, Signal, whatever. They're not gonna defend a price target," Sully stated.

In unrelated matters, Sully, who ended up in a curious dual gig of Halftime Report and Closing Bell Overtime, said he goes to Dollar General near his home in "rural Wisconsin" because it's one of the "main places" for getting Tide.

Kevin Simpson bought META and made it his Final Trade.

Brenda Vingiello sold BA, pointing to stress from the strike and saying there are "more opportunities elsewhere."

It seems like Jason Snipe is always touting COST; he did so once again on Friday.

Jim Lebenthal said BMY "shouldn't be this hated."

Bill has 18% cash

It's a trade that's already over, so it really does you no good.

Yet, Bill Baruch on Thursday's (9/26) Halftime Report offered a tip about buying call spreads that just might spare some viewers from dialing up "IT'S NOT AN OPTION!!!!!!!!"

Bill said he bought the 110/125 call spread in MU that expires Dec. 20. He paid $2.75, but he's already "exited this trade ... legged out with an average price of 6.12."

Bill explained that when buying such a spread, you take the difference between the call numbers (15 in this case) and divide by 4 and try to pay less than that number, which of course he did (although our math tends to be shaky here).

So there you go.

Bill said he got out so fast only because he "got close enough" to his goal so early on the spike, and he brought up the old saw about bulls/bears/pigs.

Bill said after trimming, he's "back to about 18% cash."

What happened to Lawrence Summers’ calls for endless rate hikes to combat runaway inflation?

Jim Lebenthal on Thursday's (9/26) Halftime Report was still talking about how DIS "needs to close the Hulu (snicker) transaction." (Didn't Iger come back to save the day?)

Jim admitted there are "worries" that the theme park division is "not growing nicely," but he sees a "trough." (Tip: Anytime one of Jim's long-term favorite stocks is slumping, Jim always thinks the worst is behind it and he'll stay with it.)

Josh Brown said China's got "kind of a new narrative."

Josh said "61% of the FXI float is short, still," he said he doubts that'll be the case next week.

Liz Young Thomas cautioned, "The property market in China is stil lin trouble."

In the META conversation, Brenda Vingiello actually said, "I think wearables is the wave of the future ... when we're not all staring at a phone (as if)."

Liz said it's an "odd thing" that banks aren't "acting particularly well."

Jim bought WAB. Jim said of ONON, "What a fun stock ... I think it continues." Jim admitted people may question him owning this name as a "value investor."

Josh's Final Trade was PYPL, a stock that got nifty this year once Halftime panelists gave up on it. (This writer has no position in PYPL.)

Weiss doesn’t fully know the names of CNBC’s reporters

Technical glitches prevented us from catching up with Tuesday's (9/24) Halftime Report, but if it was the same as Wednesday's fairly sleepy episode, we didn't miss much.

On Wednesday's (9/25) show, Judge noted reports of possible iPhone 16 demand issues.

Steve Weiss brought up one of his own favorite gripes, about all the telcos subsidizing the sales, and suggested the possibility "one day" (snicker) that the telcos unite and decide, "Let's stop giving everybody free iPhones."

Judge said Steve Kovach (offscreen) heard Weiss and told Judge via message, "Tell Weiss, no free iPhones: Carriers may offer them for 'free,' but they eat the cost up front, and you pay it back over 2, 3 years. Apple still collects the money."

Weiss told Judge, "Tell Kovachs (sic, Judge corrected and scolded Weiss that nobody calls Weiss 'Wees') ... that the consumer believes they're getting it free."

The pronunciation of Kovach's name was mentioned throughout the rest of the program.

Joe Terranova pointed out that AAPL is "aggressively buying back their stock."

Joe suggests Fed announcement was a sell-the-news for Russell 2000

Joe Terranova opened Wednesday's (9/25) Halftime Report saying the Mag 7 has had a "nice price recovery" since the Fed announcement; "the concern that I have is that it seems as though we've got a sell-the-news-moment ... for the Russell 2000 index (sic last word redundant)."

Kari Firestone said it's "really hard to see" a cheap sector of the market.

Steve Weiss said he doesn't think the market's "cheap," and it's not "which area" of the market you're in, but "which stocks" you're in.

"I've heard 'tech is a crowded trade' frankly since I've been in the business," Weiss said, adding tech generally has the "best fundamentals" and "best products."

Amy Raskin said, "There aren't that many, you know, great opportunities, particularly in U.S. equities." Amy said "things are much cheaper" abroad.

Weiss ‘not all that concerned’ about AI disrupting Google searches

Citing Oppenheimer's note, Judge on Wednesday's (9/25) Halftime Report quibbled with Steve Weiss over whether Alphabet can keep getting "multiple expansion."

Weiss asserted, "They haven't had multiple expansion," and everyone settled on 20 for Alphabet's forward P.E. (This writer is long GOOGL.) Of course, we've been wondering for more than a year now about all these searches that Brad Gerstner warned were going to be "AI" and not whatever Google's got.

Joe Terranova asked Weiss, "Aren't you concerned though what artificial intelligence is gonna do to search." Weiss said he thinks about it, but "right now, I'm not all that concerned about it."

Judge claimed with a straight face that the "duopoly, essentially, between Facebook and, and Alphabet ... around search and advertising, is not. Anymore."

Not sure what happened to the ‘manicness’

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (9/25) Halftime Report pronounced APO's CEO as Marc "Rowing"; Judge corrected that to "Rowan." Joe said, "I'm from Long Island."

Judge said there's "no takers" on the desk on NKE. Amy Raskin said we have to "wait and see what happens." Joe said they have to "lower all the expations- (sic) expectations for 2025." Joe told Steve Weiss he wouldn't short the stock into earnings.

Amy trimmed LVMH, saying "it has been a terrible stock all year," and she thinks struggles in the luxury space continue. Judge wondered if "the worst is behind" stocks such as LVMH or EL, one of the worst stocks in recent memory (this writer is long EL). "I don't think China comes roaring back," Amy said.

Bill Baruch joined remotely late in the show to trumpet buying MU December 110 calls and selling December 125 calls, a trade that cost "about" $2.75.

Weiss said he added to VRT; he said he previously sold some around $104, and he'll ride it longer this time.

Weiss said the Morgan Stanley downgrade of GM is a good call. Weiss said he doesn't know why RIVN is still around, other than getting "handouts" from Saudis or somebody else.

Can’t figure out how NFLX got knocked out of the Mag 7

On Monday's (9/23) fairly sleepy Halftime Report, probably the most interesting conversation involved NFLX. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Judge said Bernstein reported that hedge funds are looking at NFLX as a short possibility.

Steve Weiss said he trimmed NFLX, not because of Bernstein's report but because it was "30% larger than any other position" in his portfolio, which made it "irresponsible" (snicker) to keep it at that size for risk-management purposes.

But Weiss knocked the shorting argument and said he'd "love to be in the opposite side of the trade" of all hedge fund shorts of the last 5 years. Weiss said "what they should watch out for" is that "Netflix can raise prices yet again."

That's the argument this page agrees with; that NFLX at $17 a month (or whatever the price is) is like when Amazon was offering Amazon Prime for $69.

Even so, Weiss said, "I do think it's ahead of itself right now." Joe Terranova owns NFLX personally and agrees with what Weiss said. Joe said he has "no problem" with anyone ringing the register in NFLX.

On Fast Money, Katie Stockton told Karen Finerman that NFLX "does still have resistance from 2021" and "this would be sort of a natural place for it to maybe pause."

Joe has been trading Russell futures ‘from the short side’

On Monday's (9/23) Halftime Report, after Jenny Harrington expressed concerns about META spending (Zzzzzzzz) and earnings, Judge said, "I would say that all of those potential worries you have are outlier worries."

"Maybe," Jenny said, citing where the stock was 2 years ago, which Steve Weiss said is just a moment in time.

META was the top story on Fast Money, where Karen Finerman said META is her largest holding, though the chart is "somewhat of a little bit of a nosebleed."

Steve Grasso said Mark Zuckerberg has "done a masterful job of not pissing off Congress."

Steve also said he's hoping to make a quick 10% trade in INTC.

Back on Halftime, Steve Weiss started by saying he agrees "perfectly" with Tony Pasquariello's optimistic market outlook, but Weiss allowed, "You gotta feel a little unease though at how easy it's been," basically that the corrections haven't been big enough.

Joe Terranova said earnings are the "potential catalyst" for the market. Joe said "it's critical that the viewers understand that a lot of the places that have been working so far are the places that are gonna work as we move forward. Stay with the large caps." Joe revealed, "I have been trading the Russell futures from the short side since the announcement of the Fed meeting." (So much for Tom Lee's forecast.)

Joe said he "probably wouldn't" be selling semis, but he would if their earnings don't deliver.

Steve Weiss stated, "I don't understand the love affair with Broadcom. I hear so many people come on and talk about Broadcom. They've got a highly cyclical component to their business, and it's not small ... The multiple is higher than Nvidia."

Weiss revealed he sold ADM, after "about a 10% gain." We thought it was an interesting trade when he first mentioned it, but as he noted Monday, it fell from the 80s and never (as of now) got back there. Joe said it's one of those stocks in a "value trap."

Joe said PLTR is "in the momentum sweet spot."

Belski got ‘a lot of hate mail’

Most people who are "fully invested" are typically happy when stocks surge higher.

Jenny Harrington of course is not, according to her commentary on Friday's (9/20) Halftime Report.

"Yesterday made me really uncomfortable," Jenny stated, explaining that "there was a mania to it. A manicness (sic)."

Jenny said Wednesday's trading made sense because, according to Jenny, "We all knew 50 basis points was coming."

Judge at least challenged that one, stating, "Oh I don't know if we all knew 50 was coming ... a little bit of a, a surprise."

Jenny made a reference to "1999-2000."

Jenny referred to interning at Laszlo Birinyi's shop and said she was taught then that one of the "worst" indicators was when the AAII goes "hard-core bullish." Judge said the S&P is up 1.2% this week and wondered, "Is that a mania?" Jenny said it's "pretty wild" that it's up 21% this year.

Jenny also said Brian Belski's 6,100 S&P call "makes me uncomfortable too."

Steve Weiss said there was an "appropriate move in the indices" after the Fed's decision. But Josh Brown ripped the market's reaction on Wednesday to the Fed's decision. "Who the hell taught these people how to trade??" Brown demanded.

Weiss said we're back in the mode where bad consumer news will be good news for the market.

Jenny insisted she's not "super bearish" (after saying "super bullish (sic)".)

Belski, who joined remotely for a bit, said he "got a lot of hate mail" for his 6,100 call.

Jenny said there's "tremendous mutual respect" between herself and Belski.

Judge said those issuing warnings like Jenny "are the ones who've watched the train go by." Jenny said, "That's why I'm fully invested."

Belski claims 6,100 call was made before Fed decision (a/k/a Krinsky’s call deemed ‘amazing’)

Brian Belski, fresh off his Price-Is-Right-like 6,100 S&P call, joined Friday's (9/20) Halftime Report remotely, and started off stating, "We just simply believe stock prices are gonna be higher by year-end."

Judge asked Belski if he made the 6,100 call because of the "supersize" (snicker) Fed cut. Belski claimed "we actually wrote the- wrote the piece a couple days prior to" but admitted "we wanted to see what the language of the Fed was going to be."

Joe Terranova said "the calendar was a factor" in doing 50 points.

Joe declared, "It's a secular bull market, plain and simple."

Judge told Josh Brown that Krinsky is saying "respect the action; bulls gain the upper hand." Josh wasn't terribly impressed, stating, "It's a technician who, uh, recognizes that the market is going up. It's amazing."

Judge said Tom Lee "still thinks" (snicker) there can be a "huge gain" by year-end in small caps. Judge asked Joe about Jeffrey Gundlach suggesting small caps get more of a tailwind from the Fed than other stocks are. Joe, who has recently touted large caps, announced, "During my career, I've done much better reacting vs. anticipating," and he's not ready to react to small caps just yet.

Steve Weiss said NKE needs "innovation and new ideas." Josh said it's a "tough time" for NKE and that under-12-year-olds aren't jazzed up about LeBron James shoes or Kevin Durant shoes.

Joe predicted continued "price appreciation" for AAPL over 12 months because it "aggressively buys back its stock." Judge said it's not buybacks "alone" that would cause people to buy AAPL, "you need the upgrade cycle." Joe said the buyback defends against a "major inflection point."

Josh Brown reiterated his belief in PYPL. Weiss bought some more VRT. "I've got the lowest cash I've had," Weiss stated.

Jim sees no reason whatsoever that C shouldn’t trade at book

Early in Thursday's (9/19) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal wondered aloud, "OK, if the S&P 500 is going up, does that mean you just wanna buy SPYders and call it a day? We don't think so at Cerity Partners. I mean, we're- we're overweight, uh, small caps, and that's where we see a bigger return ... we see a much bigger return in small caps than in the market overall."

OK. That's the Tom Lee call.

But a couple hours later on Closing Bell, Joe Terranova revealed, "I'm not sold on the premise that small caps are going to experience this dramatic outperformance."

Joe said the S&P 500 is up 35% "since the first rate hike in March," so careful how you apply those "Don't fight the Fed" slogans.

Regardless, back on Halftime, Jim said, "I think it's very strongly- uh, likely that we're gonna rally into year-end and set new highs."

Jim said he was "pleasantly surprised" by 50 points. Jim said he is "long, strong and optimistic as ever."

Guest host Frank Holland said Belski moved his S&P target to 6,100, which, according to the CNBC chart, seems to be the highest on the Street. (See, it's kind of like the bidding on "The Price Is Right.")

Kevin Simpson said there will be "a lot of Monday Morning Quarterback" about the Fed's move.

Steve Liesman joined in the 14th minute, stating, "We're trying to understand the word- the meaning of the word 'recalibrating' when it comes to monetary policy." Steve identified 3 areas: From inflation to employment, from restrictive to neutral, to less "data (pronounced DAY-ta) dependent."

Jim asked Steve if "market participants can stop thinking about the Fed." Steve said they can "think less about the Fed."

Frank asked Stephanie Link about Jeffrey Gundlach's suggestion (see below) that a recession is possible. "I just don't see it," Stephanie said.

Kevin Simpson bought more IBM; "I think they're starting to get it right with AI." (This page would snicker, but it's around a 52-week high.)

Jim, who got zinged by Al Michaels last week (not by name), shrugged off the "underweight" call on CASY by JPMorgan.

As Frank pointed out Jeffrey Gundlach's touting of gold a day earlier with Judge, Kevin Simpson bought more FCX.

Jeffrey: ‘Good shot’ that September 2024 is the ‘start of a recession’ (a/k/a Harvard needs a loan)

On Wednesday's (9/18) post-Fed Closing Bell, Jeffrey Gundlach noted that Jay Powell "admitted" that they could've cut in July.

Jeffrey opined that "the word of the day was 'recalibration'" and that Powell "seemed relaxed" and "even cracked a couple of jokes."

Eventually, though, Jeffrey offered, "I still think there's a good shot that the history books will say September '24 was the start of a recession."

Steve Liesman joined and, oblivious to most of Jeffrey's comments, said, "Scott, I want to bring your attention to the word 'recalibration.'" Later on Fast Money, Steve said Jay Powell said "recalibrate" 9 times.

On Closing Bell, Steve said that while Jeffrey may see a possible recession, Steve thinks this could be the "first-ever immaculate 50-basis-point rate cut."

Judge mentioned the term "data-(pronounced DAY-ta) dependent."

Jeffrey said it "might" be time to look at emerging markets.

In the midst of a spree of financial commentary, Jeffrey said, "The problem that I worry about is that our responses to recessions are- have been incrementally more money-printing," and after COVID happened, "The amount of money that they were willing to give away is, uh, a cautionary tale as to what might happen when the next recession comes."

Well, we can finish that thought for him. Yes, the next hint of recession (or the next time Jeremy Siegel pounds the table when the Dow falls), those $1,400 checks are going out, with or without someone's name on them. And then the CBO will report that the current national debt rate is manageable but "unsustainable."

Jeffrey claimed "there's a lot of illiquidity" in large pools of money, citing Harvard having to tap the bond market "for operating money" because its $50-$60 billion portfolio didn't have enough liquidity (snicker).

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said Jay Powell did a "good job," and 50 was the "right amount."

Karen raised an interesting question about whether furloughed workers are considered unemployed. The panel tossed it to executive producer Sandy Cannold, who said, according to Mel, that "a furloughed employee still collects benefits ... but they can claim unemployment benefits." Guy Adami hilariously referred to "Kensho."

‘This is like a TMZ moment’

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (9/18) Halftime Report said if there's a "significant correction" to stocks after the Fed's move, then it's a "buy-the-dip moment."

Joe and Steve Weiss both said 50 points is merited. Weiss complained, "This is like a TMZ moment," although we weren't quite sure what that meant.

Guest host Frank Holland opened the show saying he's heard from "a lot of traders" who think Jay Powell's commentary is all that matters. Jim Lebenthal, though, said, "I think it does matter whether it's 25 or 50."

Frank played Judge's Jeffrey Gundlach clip from a day earlier in which Jeffrey predicted 50 bp and said "The Fed just follows the 2-year Treasury" and "needs to cut rates 150 pretty quickly."

Steve Liesman noted there's been "a little bit of cold feet in the 50 camp."

Bryn is selling TSLA Nov 240s

Bryn Talkington on Wednesday's (9/18) Halftime Report said she bought TSLA "around 229" and sold November 240 calls for $19.50.

Bryn said CRWD is "still in the penalty box"; Bryn owns the BUG. (This writer is long CRWD.) She said PANW is "easier" to own right now than CRWD without the "hangover" from the outage.

Joe Terranova said cybersecurity names have had a recovery but may be "running in place" for a while.

Bryn said oil, and other commodities, have a "China issue." Jim Lebenthal said Bryn's "absolutely right" about China but "there's also a lot of room for it to improve," something we've been hearing for years (witness casino stocks). Jim also mentioned the "need to rebuild the Strategic Petroleum Reserve." Jim touted RIG inking a contract for 2028.

Jim said he trimmed Alphabet and ORCL, explaining, "This is just portfolio management."

Joe Terranova said the JOET will deal with SMCI "accordingly" (snicker) in the end-of-October rebalance.

Joe talked up KKR and other private equity names.

Steve Weiss bought more NFLX in a "tactical trade." (This writer is long NFLX.) He said he expects a "pop" in NFLX from the Fed announcement, even if that pop takes a day or 2.

Steve Liesman: ‘I don’t know this time’ (a/k/a Please, Fed, get this cut over with)

Tuesday (9/17) is almost the last day we have to hear CNBCers predicting 25-or-50, and we were highly tempted just to skip the Halftime Report, but whatever; a bunch of 'em were in Huntington Beach (at a rare conference that Barry claims you won't forget what city you were in).

"25 seems right," said Josh Brown, who said the stock market is "comfortable" with that number, though he doesn't think people would get "overly emotional" about 50.

Judge said the market seems to be "hoping" for 50.

Shannon Saccocia, who like Bill Baruch was at Future Proof with Judge and Josh, predicted 25 but said the Fed's door will be "wide open to become much more accommodative."

Josh claimed, "Almost every stock is in its own individual bull market."

Steve Liesman, who in the last week or so is kind of on TV round-the-clock but isn't at Future Proof, admitted to Judge that 25 vs. 50 is a toss-up even to him.

"I almost always know, and I don't know this time," Steve admitted.

But Steve predicted it'll be "easier" for Jay Powell to get unanimity for 25 rather than 50.

Bill Baruch actually claimed "the market is seasonally getting a little bit bearish." Judge called out that one, stating, "The market's not getting bearish. The market's actually getting more bullish." Bill then stated, "It begins today, it begins this week and then really you have the quadruple/triple witching at the end of this week."

Dan Ives sat in with the group in Huntington Beach, in that lime-green jacket.

Josh said this is Year 3 of Future Proof. Judge claimed, "This is like the Lollapalooza of finance, and you're like Jagger out here." Josh said, "This is definitely my people."

Judge noted that EBAY is up since Josh recommended it to Al Michaels last week.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman keeps saying she's in the "50 camp."

60/40 in terms of 50

Joe Terranova, white-hot in September and at a few other times this year, said on Monday's (9/16) Halftime Report that he thinks the market is "pricing in" 50 basis points, and that 25 would be a "slight disappointment."

Anastasia Amoroso is in the 25-point camp because there's "not a state of emergency right now in the U.S. economy."

Jason Snipe is in the 25-point camp.

Steve Weiss, though, had a curious way of putting it, stating, "I've been at 60/40 for about a month now in terms of 50." (Which sounds a little bit like "25 or 6 to 4.")

Weiss claimed the Fed is "not focused on the election at all." Weiss said "I still think tech is the place to be, except for certain stocks."

Anastasia said she's sticking with a "defensive core" and would add to regional banks. Citing real estate writedowns, Weiss said, "no offense," regional banks are the "worst place to be in the market." Anastasia said "no offense taken" but that commercial real estate is "so nuanced."

Apparently both Judge and Bob Pisani are at Future Proof (an increasingly common corporate slogan these days) in Huntington Beach. On Monday, Bob talked to Barry; ads promised Judge and Josh on Tuesday. Bob said Third Eye Blind is playing. Barry said "most conferences" are forgettable and attendees at most conferences can't even remember where the conference was.

Is reducing interest rates by 50 basis points going to turbocharge inflation?

Early on Friday's (9/13) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal said Adam Parker is calling the Mag 7 "the Big 6" (Christy Mathewson's nickname).

Bryn Talkington offered that "the economy is doing just fine," she thinks it's "slowing, not stalling."

Joe Terranova, who made a monster call earlier in the week (see below), noted the "mesmerizing price action of the last 48 hours ... It feels as if the market never closed on Wednesday. It never closed on Thursday."

Bryn predicted "the market will continue to price in a soft landing until otherwise proven, until a different narrative emerges."

Rob Sechan said the Fed is "300 basis points above their neutral" target but other than in 1981, the Fed has never cut rates by 75 points without a recession.

Guest host Dom Chu said Tom Lee is predicting tailwinds for the market into the Fed meeting. Joe said it's not about 25 or 50 in September but October earnings.

Rob said for financials, we may have to worry about net interest margins, "for sure." Rob expressed concern about "really high" expectations for earnings growth, while Jim questioned why Rob is "conditioning" his outlook on it.

Rob bought TSM for its "dominance."

Jim said he sold BA at 230 "the day after the Alaska Airlines blowout." He said there's "too much risk" to buy it back. Jim said that for the company and its union situation, the "opening gambit" was a 25% raise over 4-5 years, and it's just a "negotiation."

Joe said the Uber-Waymo deal "doesn't do much for me" and noted UBER peaked this year at 82 in March.

Joe said momentum for GRMN is at a "yellow light."

Bryn offered that "historically ... energy has actually been one of the best-performing sectors going into a rate cut."

Jensen claims to be ‘not very informed’ on the tariff situation

During Thursday's (9/12) Halftime Report, Megan Cassella scored an exclusive chat with Jensen outside the White House in which Jensen talked a lot about "energy" for AI and government help for it in some way.

Megan asked about potential impact of tariffs. "I'm not very- very informed in most of that stuff," said Jensen who declined to make any presidential endorsements; he said NVDA is "focused" on "supporting whatever administration is here."

Jensen said of Blackwell, "Every company in the world is, is uh, chomping (sic meant 'champing') at the bit, you know, for us to ship to 'em."

Judge, who was in San Francisco, noted that Jensen had a "busy 24 hours, from leather jacket here in San Francisco at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia conference to suit and tie at the White House. A look we're really not used to seeing Mr. Huang (sic grammar)."

Dan Nathan on Fast Money made a joke about Jensen not having the leather jacket.

During Halftime, Jason Snipe said, "We're talking about a new industrial revolution." Jason called the "small flaw" that's delaying Blackwell chips "really immaterial."

Amy Raskin said, "when you hear Jensen Huang speak, you just get excited"; he sounds "rational" and "confident."

Dan Greenhaus notes people have been calling the S&P 500 expensive for 10 years

On Thursday's (9/12) Closing Bell, Dan Greenhaus said something that should be plastered on headlines everywhere.

"I've been told the S&P has been too expensive for the better part of 10 years," Greenhaus said. "The last time I heard it was attractive was somewhere around 2012 or 2013, I believe. And even then it started to get too expensive at 13, 14, 15 times."

Also on Closing Bell, fresh off his blockbuster call of Wednesday, Joe Terranova stated, "You have to respect price" and that "yesterday's a compelling inflection point" as tech suddenly went from "guilty until proven innocent" to "innocent until it can be proven guilty."

Judge questioned why anyone with "issues" with tech a week ago, such as valuation, wouldn't sell after this week's gains. Joe said his concerns weren't so much valuation but "enthusiasm."

Josh claims a great 14-year return is just ‘fortunate timing’

In what's sort of a 2- or 3-times a year appearance, Al Michaels joined Thursday's (9/12) Halftime Report ahead of the Amazon Opener (that would be the first Thursday NFL game a week after the NBC opener) to discuss the state of the NFL.

Al said interest in watching games on Prime has risen because it's somehow "so much more accessible" than in the 1st year, when "a lot of people" asked Al, "Where do I get the game?"

Judge felt obliged to mention "the success (sic) we've had with games on- on- on Peacock." Judge also felt obliged to mention CNBC's assessment of NFL team values. Al said Jerry Jones bought the Dallas Cowboys for "about 150 million," and Jeffrey Lurie got the Eagles "for like 180."

Al predicted a "tight and exciting" game between the Bills and Dolphins. It was anything but.

Al mentioned hearing Judge's Marc Lasry interview the other day.

Al told Josh Brown about buying FAS 14 years ago, and "you told me, that was a day-trading stock." Al said he's had it 5,110 days and it's up 2,136.22% and asked Josh what he does now, perhaps sell covered calls.

Josh kind of stoically said "I would say you got very, very fortunate with the timing," and "these products, specifically, were launched for day traders, and all of the literature the firms themselves put out say, 'Do not hold these over long periods of time, thinking that you will definitely get 3X the index."

Josh's stock tip for Al was EBAY. Al said he bought 1,000 shares by the time Josh had finished talking about it.

Al said to Josh, "Now, you're not gonna tell me your Final Trade today is Cleveland-Cliffs, is it?," chuckling, a joke that Judge doesn't have the brass to make. Josh said, "No that's not me, that's the gentleman with the glasses."

Fast Money took up the ‘Moderna Meltdown,’ something Weiss won’t do

Josh Brown on Thursday's (9/12) Halftime Report stressed that there's "room to go" on the SMH, meaning upward; most of the stocks "are already in their own correction," and that even NVDA "got very cheap" around $100.

Bill Baruch, who wasn't a panelist but joined remotely, said he bought more AVGO, MSFT and META. Bill weighed tech vs. staples and said names in the QQQ "double bottomed last week against the August 5th," which told him "the selling was overdone."

Judge said UBS says the "money on the sidelines" from money markets will be going into large cap tech. Josh Brown though said he thinks it'll go to investment grade corporate bonds.

On Fast Money, Guy Adami said of NVDA, "Technically, it looks pretty good." Steve Grasso said to use the 50-day of $117.75 as your stop-loss in NVDA.

Also, Steve Grasso took up the MRNA debacle, noting, "People are not lining up to take, uh, to take the shots anymore." He said it's back to its October 2020 level, but "it just had a death cross," and Steve thinks with death crosses, "the downside is nearly laid out," so you could "roll the dice" on it.

Joe’s on fire — calls intraday reversal around 5,400, says it’s time to play the market long

Wednesday's (9/11) Halftime Report had some good stuff in between but couldn't top the calls from Joe Terranova that basically began, and ended, the show.

Joe opened the program stating, "You can play the market from the long side as long as we technically (sic redundant) hold above 5,400 in the S&P 500." Joe spoke as the S&P 500 was down 44 points. Joe said that "underneath the market," the semis and megacaps seem to have found a "trough."

At the end of the show, Joe reiterated he was "reversing my bias over the last week and a half. I think you now play the market from the long side ... I think the S&P by the end of the day (down 15 points at that time) will be higher."

Was it ever.

In case you're wondering, "Wasn't Joe just 2 days ago shrugging off Monday's bounce and predicting 'corrective behavior' in the market for weeks?" Yes, Joe just 2 days ago was predicting "corrective behavior" for weeks. And maybe 2 days from now, he'll change his outlook again.

But he did nail Wednesday's trade, big-time.

A few hours later, on Fast Money, Tim Seymour attributed at least part of Wednesday's rally to, "There were people out there with shopping lists." Grandpa Guy Adami admitted that if the reversal had gone the other direction, he'd "make a big deal out of it," so he grudgingly has to comment on Wednesday's rally; Guy said it was an "extraordinary" move, but before you get over your skis, Grandpa Guy warned that the dollar/yen unwind "is not over, so, more volatility ahead I think."

Karen Finerman suggested that early in the market, there was a "knee-jerk response to the idea of Harris doing better and the idea of a Democratic presidency being less favorable for the market." (The funny thing about the debate ... absolutely everyone who watched it knows who "won" the debate ...)

Joe actually suggested semis got a lift from "some tariff relief after the bate- uh, the debate last evening."

There was head-scratching at CNBCfix HQ at such a reversal without really any kind of obvious catalyst, in the middle of a month that's typically sluggish. There's no question though that this was a legit "Big. Whoosh. Down," and we'd be surprised if Joe's forecast, at least for a few weeks, doesn't pan out.

David Solomon questions lack of discussion about national debt at the presidential debate

Judge's star guest from Goldman's San Francisco conference on Wednesday (9/11) was recently soaring CEO David Solomon. (Solomon made a great comeback from potentially being Chapek'ed.) (Then again, there's a difference between Lloyd and Iger.)

David told Judge, "The environment's actually OK ... for bank activity."

Judge said David recently cited a "more challenging macro." David explained that, "You're taking a soundbite out of my comments at Barclays ... referring specifically to that August volatility."

David said he's "still in the soft-landing camp." He suggested "2, maybe 3 cuts" through the fall.

David said he watched the presidential debate; "Did debt come up once in the conversation all night? I don't think there was any discussion about the debt, you know, at all in the debate last night."

Afterwards, Steve Weiss credited Judge and Solomon for "just an excellent interview." Joe Terranova agreed it was a "great interview."

We don't disagree. Judge asked good, crisp questions, and Solomon gave fair, informative answers. It could've easily gone another half-hour.

Another thing David Muir didn’t ask about at the debate — the bailout they’re going to give U.S. Steel

Aside from David Solomon and Joe Terranova's be-long-stocks call, Wednesday's (9/11) Halftime Report had mostly measured commentary.

(With Judge in San Francisco for the Goldman conference, panelists were beaming in from home offices, including Joe's with the whiteboard, that brought back a lot of stale memories of the COVID era.)

Josh Brown said the magnitude of Fed cuts and the outcome of the election figure to hover over the market, though there have been "bids" coming in.

Steve Weiss said it looks like a 25-point cut is coming but that financials were denting the market. Nevertheless, he bought more GS on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Joe basically said it's either GS or JPM in the banks, no others.

Kari Firestone said software is gaining interest.

Liz says it’s actually ‘easier’ for people to sell winners

Liz Young Thomas said something interesting on Tuesday's (9/10) Halftime Report:

"It's a lot easier to unload a gain than it is to unload a loss."

That's interesting, because Rob Sechan has indicated just the opposite several times recently. And Steve Weiss has sorta done the same.

A new take on how DLTR and DG reflect the economy that people have been preaching about

One of the curious economic developments of the summer has been the debacle of Dollar General and Dollar Tree — and listening to Guy Adami on CNBC's Fast Money try to make it fit into his thesis about the consumer as he continues to warn about rising unemployment.

On Tuesday (9/10), Jenny Harrington took a stab at that on the Halftime Report, stating she "read a really interesting article the other day comparing Dollar General and Walmart."

Jenny said that what the comparers saw was, "The lowest, um, earners at- who were- who were shopping at Walmart now have to downgrade and go to Dollar General, and they're desperate, right, for the biggest bargains they could (sic grammar)."

OK, so if we understand the new narrative ... it's so bad out there that people who previously shopped at WMT can't afford it, so they're going to Dollar Tree ... but they won't buy anything from Dollar Tree unless it's desperately discounted.

Got it.

Jenny mentioned owning KSS (because who would rather own NVDA or MSFT when KSS is out there).

On Fast Money, Grandpa Guy Adami stated, "I get it, I mean, people will say they've tamed the inflation dragon, the same way they said that in the early 1970s. We shall see."

Josh mentioned SBUX getting backlogged by orders at the airport but it’s unclear what the easy fix is

Judge flew all the way to L.A. to ask Marc Lasry on Tuesday's (9/10) Halftime Report about Wonder Woman comic book No. 1 investing in sports teams; private equity in the NFL is one of Judge's favorite subjects.

Judge asked Marc if the Fed should've started cutting already. "Not really," Marc said. Marc sees a "soft landing" and said if there is a recession, it'll only be "6 months."

With Judge in L.A., Sully guest-hosted Halftime again. Bill Baruch dialed in to trumpet ORCL, suggesting a "breakout" and said it could "easily" be a $180 stock. Josh Brown also cheered ORCL but said there's some "AI voodoo" being sprinkled around the stock.

Josh said Brian Niccol's SBUX turnaround will "work," but "on an elongated time frame." Sully questioned the fact that Niccol is working remotely.

Kevin Simpson sold DE, suggesting the company's taking on too much debt. But he bought more TJX.

On Fast Money, Julia Boorstin interviewed WNBA star Cameron Brink, who twice told Karen Finerman that the off-court promotional demands have been "tiresome" (sic). We assume she meant "tiring," as in, she gets physically tired because the WNBA draft/season takes place shortly after the college season; "tiresome" to most people implies boredom or annoyance. (Then again, Brink went to Stanford, so, um, maybe we shouldn't question her grammar usage...)

Weiss says election is between ‘somebody pathological’ and ‘a socialist’

Steve Weiss on Monday's (9/9) Halftime Report pointed out the oddity of a Republican candidate praising Lina Khan.

Weiss stated, "Unusually, you have the Republican slate, JD Vance being very very visible, saying that Lina Khan's doing a great job, and he agrees."

As far as potential breakups (long a strange sorta-government goal in the tech space), Weiss said META's parts "are worth more than the whole" and maybe Alphabet and even Amazon's are too. But he said the FTC and Khan have "terrible track records in breaking up companies."

Of the presidential candidates, Weiss bluntly declared, "Either candidate is putting tariffs on ... You've got 2 terrible choices. On one hand, you've got somebody pathological; on the other hand, you've got a socialist."

Guest host Sully joked, "Maybe we wait 4 more years."

Sully suggests people are getting tired of ChatGPT

Steve Kovach on Monday's (9/9) Halftime Report said only 7% of people worldwide and 4% in the U.S. have a "very high inclination" to buy a new cellphone for the AI.

Guest host Sully called Apple's AR Vision Pro "a bust; it's a complete disaster."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman described the Apple presentation as "a little bit underwhelming." (Karen also talked about "shrimp cowboy," whatever that means; she tried to explain it, and we still didn't get it.)

Meanwhile, on Halftime, Sully also said he "saw a chart over the weekend" that "ChatGPT use rates are going down ... the novelty wearing off."

Steve Weiss mentioned that "the telco companies are still dumb enough to subsidize every iPhone purchase." Sully countered, "They have to be dumb enough. If they're not dumb enough, they're doomed."

Stephanie Link beamed in remotely to say she bought more AVGO.

Sully questioned if Super Micro and Intel might be indicative of a "pop" of some kind. Jim Lebenthal said that thing rhymes with "space telescope." But he doesn't think it's a "Hubble" but just "very specific stories."

Judge actually told Jimmy Haslam with a straight face that the Browns have a ‘good roster’

Joe Terranova opened Monday's (9/9) Halftime Report, guest hosted by Sully, saying, "I'm pretty surprised that we're in the green today," as he expected overseas weakness over the weekend and "one of those Mondays" with "significant pressure." (Translation: He was looking forward to buying, if we had gotten the "big. Whoosh. Down.") (Nowadays, the big whoosh down requires Jeremy Siegel calling for emergency rate cuts.)

Joe shrugged off Monday's gains as "nothing more than a technical bounce." Joe said he wouldn't be surprised to see "corrective behavior" for "several weeks."

Jim Lebenthal wasn't worried at all, saying the U.S. is still growing and citing Atlanta Fed and telling Joe that this is not "in your face at all" but that "last week was- was September being seasonally September."

Weiss said he would've thought Jim had "learned your lesson" from citing Atlanta Fed. Weiss insisted, "The economy is definitely slowing."

Joe said, "The megacaps will tell you where the market's gonna go."

Jim said he's "long tech and long cyclical."

Sully says, go to the Midwest to witness the nation’s obesity crisis

Joe Terranova on Monday's (9/9) Halftime Report said of LLY; "any dip, you just buy it." (He also says, every time it comes up, that LLY trades like a biotech.)

Steve Weiss said "I would not buy it," calling the multiple "ridiculous."

Guest host Sully offered that we have an "obesity crisis in this country, even among the young." Weiss agreed, "2/3 of the country is overweight."

Sully said "all my friends in the Midwest, I love ya, go there, and then you'll understand the market."

"I don't have to go there to see overweight people, I have plenty of places around here," Weiss said.

Jim Lebenthal bought more C, offering the same arguments you've heard about this stock for 15 years. Joe said financials are one of the top sectors this year and how could the economy be that bad if financials are doing so well, and there's a "multitude of opportunities" in the space. Weiss though said "Regional banks, I would stay away, they are death."

(On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said she owns C and likes it "a lot." Zzzzzzzz. Tim Seymour claimed there's "a lot more upside" (snicker) in the name.)

Weiss said he has a "good-sized position" in NFLX and said the Disney-ESPN product gives NFLX "more pricing power." (This writer is long NFLX.)

Joe said the JOET has 7 positions in energy. Joe said oil's in a "very difficult place" for investors to have a "high degree of confidence" in a risk-reward scenario. "I think the energy sector probably has the highest sensitivity to the election outcome of all the sectors." Weiss said oil is for "good traders only."

Tom Lee says ‘Trump’s probability of winning actually increased this week’

Tom Lee on Friday's (9/6) Closing bell noted last year was rough in September-October and said, "I wonder if markets are going risk-off early."

Lee indicated it doesn't matter much to him whether the Fed goes 25 or 50, it'll be all about the reaction; he just thinks it's good that they're starting to cut.

Lee said tech may be getting hit because people want to "de-risk," and they've got big holdings in tech, but there could be a "political aspect" to it as "Trump's probability of winning actually increased this week in the betting markets and in the polls," which investors could see as "bad for semis."

Tom said he doesn't think tech's a "sell" but is a "source of funds."

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso said the week's selloff seems about "more seasonality" than anything else.

Weiss: Tech ‘always will’ lead

One profoundly important statement was made early on Friday's (9/6) Halftime Report.

It came from Steve Weiss, who said that looking out "a year, 2 years, 3 years, tech is going to be leading the market again. Period. End of story. Always has. Always will."

That's a bold statement.

This page, basically, agrees.

But what really matters is that nobody on Friday's panel challenged that statement.

Weiss said the data (pronounced DAY-ta) is telling a "very, very bad story in terms of slowing." Weiss said "the odds favor a 50-bp cut." Weiss added, "I'm not calling for recession. But I'm calling for continued weakness."

Steve Liesman, though, offered that Fed members are "open to 50" but "probably gonna start with, with 25."

Jim Lebenthal stated, "It's not a Fed that's cutting because of economic weakness. It's cutting because it's way too restrictive by the virtue of 300 basis points real Fed funds rate." Hmmmm. There's definitely truth there. But there are some legit "weakness" concerns.

Jim actually said "the pause that refleshes (sic)" but corrected himself.

Regarding the steel space, which Judge brought up with a healthy amount of skepticism, Jim said he takes "full responsibility" for recommending CLF or any other stock. Jim said he's "not likely" to sell CLF. Jim said the hot-rolled steel price looks like it's "bottomed."

As for getting X on the rebound, Jim said Lourenco won't pay "any price that is anywhere close" to what Nippon offered.

Jim praised all of CLF's recent deals but never addressed why the stock is only $11 after all those deals. Judge said the market has basically been saying in the past week that it doesn't want CLF to do the X deal. Jim conceded, "They don't want the balance-sheet stress on Cleveland Cliffs."

Karen on X: ‘I think the deal should go through’

On Thursday's (9/5) Fast Money, CNBC's Pippa Stevens reported that Lourenco Goncalves is "ready to go" for pieces of X.

Karen Finerman offered, "I think the deal should go through" and "the politics of it is sort of disturbing." Karen suggested this wouldn't be a big issue in any state that isn't a swing state.

Guy Adami said Lourenco, whose stock is $11, is in "a bit of a catbird's seat" because he could ask "behind closed doors" for some "sweetheart deals" from the government to buy X. Tim Seymour said, "I think you wanna own U.S. Steel here. ... This stock's probably worth 45 bucks."

Tim and Mel agreed that the resistance to this deal sends a "terrible" message.

He doesn’t go there often, but when Judge visits Wendy’s, he has a Frosty

Bill Baruch and Josh Brown were in agreement on Thursday's (9/5) Halftime Report about not falling for the market's head fake.

Josh noted the "growth scare" in the market but cautioned, "Don't get carried away by 1 day, 2 days activity. Um, don't do countertrend things that work against your best interests."

Bill Baruch agreed that "you don't want to start selling your tech here and start rotating. That's- that trade has already happened." Bill suggested what's happening this week is "some seasonality being- maybe being front-run."

Stephanie Link bluntly stated, "I don't think the growth scare is legit."

Kari Firestone asserted that the "No. 1 determinant" of the extent of the Fed's move is the unemployment rate; "If it turns out it's 4.4 or 4.5, they're definitely gonna go to 50."

Judge told Steve Liesman, "The Fed's in a bit of a pickle here, that, they probably should've gone in July," and now, going 25 isn't enough, and going 50 "sends some sort of alarm signal."

Steve said there's been easing of conditions since the Fed's July statement.

Steve joked that this is "The Wendy's meeting," meaning the question is whether the Fed will do a "single or a double."

Then Steve told Judge, "I bet you don't go to Wendy's at all." Judge said, "I like the Frosty." Both Steve and Judge said they don't go to Wendy's that often, but Judge insisted that when he goes, he gets a Frosty.

Stephanie Link said, "I'd be really shocked if Judge is going to have a Frosty in the next 6 months we get a really crappy number tomorrow."

Bill Baruch bought more NVDA. He explained how he had just been trimming it and said he likes it at 106 or 105 with "a lot of support" there.

Bill said he bought more TSLA, including putting on December calls, the 260/290 spread.

Josh said Berkshire is "short-term overbought." Josh noted that Berkshire isn't doing much in buybacks, something Judge trumpeted, concluding, "They apparently don't see much value in anything right now."

Stephanie Link has touted SLB for months if not years; Judge pointed out it's at a 52-week low. Stephanie said she'll stick with it.

Judge didn't have anything at Halftime regarding CNBC's blockbuster new report speculating on fair market value for the Dallas Cowboys (as if they're going to be sold anytime soon); Michael Ozanian explained on Closing Bell that it's all about "multiples of revenue."

On Closing Bell, Joe Terranova said "50 is better" for market sentiment.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman stated, "I've actually moved out of the 25 camp into the 50 camp." Karen said there's "not that much downside" to going 50. Guy Adami countered that a 50-point move would be "politicized without question," and he doesn't think the Fed wants that.

If White House blocks deal, ‘You could have them try to bail out the steel industry’ (a/k/a when are they going to move on the stamp-out-price-gouging agenda?)

It was one of the best episodes in months.

Wednesday's (9/4) Fast Money led off with news of the apparent blockage of the U.S. Steel deal, reported by Eamon Javers, and panelists followed with one cogent comment after another about the developing situation.

Mel said it's "curious" that the deal could be rejected on national security grounds. She demanded of Javers, "What is the excuse that they could possibly give to not approve this deal?"

Eamon said "it'll be all about supply chains."

Guy Adami (who admittedly pretended to be reluctant about delving into a political issue) stated, "I don't get it either, to be honest with you. It'll save thousands of jobs; Nippon Steel's probably gonna invest a billion dollars, keep it in Pittsburgh, keep it in the state of Pennsylvania. nobody else seems willing to step up to the plate here. I don't understand, to your point, I mean this is a pretty staunch ally for the, you know, many decades. So, I don't get it."

Steve Grasso stated, "It's all about the union worker ... I can make the case for both sides. Because there is a defense mechanism to it. You don't want to be reliant on a foreign country developing or making- making steel in your country. That- That's- That's why it's bipartisan."

Steve did say something we found a head-scratcher, claiming of the deal, "Maybe it changes with the wind tomorrow" and you could "play it through options."

Tim Seymour, practically in disbelief about the news reported by Javers, said, "This isn't about U.S. Steel. This is about the state of Pennsylvania. This isn't- this isn't even about Gary, Indiana, and some of these other plants. Nippon has said 3 billion will go into these plants right now, no layoffs till '27. Japan is an ally. They actually wanna compete against China. You know what's the real steel problem — it's China. ... This is the most absurd thing, uh, if you wanna try to argue in favor for market-strategic forces. And it's as if we can't make all the steel we want in this country? We sure can. In fact, there's too much steel. And that's part of the problem."

Karen Finerman somehow questioned why the administration doesn't just wait for CFIUS to block the deal and "wait for that as cover. ... Instead, they wanna front-run that."

Steve Grasso pointed out that if the deal doesn't go through, "You could have them try to bail out the steel industry. Which becomes even more inflationary. And you're buying- and you're directly buying votes then." (Exactly. Checks in the mail again.)

Tim Seymour said, "Both sides of the aisle ... none of it's deficit-friendly." Tim said the "Trump-era tariffs which were kept by Biden" were a tax of $80 billion on U.S. taxapayers in 2020.

Guy Adami questioned what happens now if a U.S. company wants to buy a Japanese company. "This doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever," Guy said.

Actually, the panelists did leave out one thing: It's not all about the state of Pennsylvania, it's very much about the name of the company being acquired.

On other matters, Steve Grasso said that until NVDA gets above 110, "I don't think you should be trading it," because it could fade all the way to "$88 and change."

Judge says people making Jenny’s argument have been ‘run over’

We were just going to skip Wednesday's (9/4) Halftime Report given that it figured to be another insufferable episode of Jenny Harrington basically declaring DON'T BUY ANY TECH STOCKS!!!!!!!!, but we heard Judge actually push back, so we figured we might as well note it.

Jenny claimed yet again that the math somehow doesn't add up for the market going much higher.

Judge moments later told Jenny, "Those who have made the argument that the math doesn't work, uh, have been making that same argument for the better part of the last 18 months. And, and, they've been run over, OK. They've been run over. They have."

"Well, OK, define 'run over' (sigh)," Jenny said.

"Like run over, by the bull market that has taken the stock market to new highs," Judge explained.

That's when Jenny admitted, "I've been making that argument, but I've still been totally- like almost completely invested." And then she got to the point she always wants to make because she's oblivious to the QQQ's long-term returns (any time frame) (this writer is long QQQ), "In fact, maybe you just shift a little bit, right, out of to- into, you know, the point I've been making, out of Mag 7, into the other top 10, you get to participate- sorry, into the other 493, you get to participate in those."

Judge said Jenny's been making the argument of "somebody who's negative on the market."

Jenny admitted she's been "duking it out with people on Twitter." That's always a great use of time.

Meanwhile, Jim Lebenthal stated, "I think what you're gonna see is that the rest of the market catches up with technology." (We've heard that one before, too.)

Rob Sechan said "a little bit of a retrenchment" would be "welcome." (Sure. The "big whoosh down.")

Rob bought more CRM (Zzzzzzzzz); Kari Firestone called that "a good idea." Rob made it his Final Trade.

Jim claimed CSCO is back and "you can hear it from the analysts' questions (snicker) on the last 2 earnings calls."

Jenny Harrington said of CSCO, "With a 14 times multiple, you're not gambling with too much." What does that mean? Stocks with a multiple of 14 won't go down very much??

In another curious comment, Jenny stated, "I think we all know that over the next 5, 10, 20 years, copper's just a straight-up bullish play."

Jim said "the biggest thing bar none facing the energy markets is China."

Judge asleep at the switch on Haslam family’s Berkshire dispute

Midway through Tuesday's (9/3) Halftime Report, Judge welcomed Cleveland Browns owner Jimmy Haslam and Huntington Bancshares CEO Stephen Steinour to discuss Huntington's naming-rights deal for the Browns stadium.

Judge wondered about terms and how Huntington realizes value from a stadium name. "Terms are not disclosed," Steinour politely said. He said the deal would "help propel our name and our brand nationally."

Much analysis has been done for decades on those deals. We doubt that stadium naming rights ever brings in much extra business. But maybe it does. (Quick, name the corporate name of the Browns stadium prior to this deal.)

Judge must've been planning lunch at Burger King, because then came the whopper. Judge told Jimmy, "You are the chairman of the truck stop, uh, empire Flying J, which your father founded," and Judge asked Haslam about the "highways and byways of what's goin' on, uh, in this economy."

Haslam pointed out, "We sold our remaining interest to Berkshire Hathaway in January of last (sic it was 2024) year."

What Jimmy didn't mention was that selling the remaining 20% stake to Berkshire turned into a really messy court fight that was, despite Judge being oblivious, well-covered in financial media. According to Reuters last February, "In competing lawsuits in Delaware Chancery Court, each side accused the other of manipulating Pilot's accounting in bad faith, with the Haslams saying Berkshire was undervaluing its stake, and Berkshire concerned it might overpay."

As to Haslam's chairmanship, the Reuters article said that after acquiring a 2nd stake of Pilot Flying J in 2023, Berkshire "subsequently overhauled its management."

(We're guessing the Halftime Report Research Dept. picked up the Haslam-is-chairman thing from Jimmy's not-recently-updated Wikipedia page.)

Reuters reported that Warren Buffett did not mention the Pilot Flying J deal in his annual letter in February but relayed this anecdote: "People are not that easy to read. Sincerity and empathy can easily be faked. That is as true now as it was in 1863."

Meanwhile, on Tuesday's Halftime, Jimmy told Judge he believes "very strongly" in the private equity vote. Judge said CNBC's Alex Sherman "broke the news" that the NFL wanted a "a cut of the private equity profits." Judge said it "raised a lot of eyebrows." Jimmy didn't totally confirm it but indicated that all the parties involved want it that way.

Judge told Haslam that the Browns have a "good roster." Judge didn't ask Jimmy why the Browns have a poor record under his leadership and gave a ridiculous guaranteed contract to a quarterback who 1) has an embarrassing reputation and 2) no other teams wanted and 3) isn't particularly good anyway.

Judge was trumpeting how CNBC's new sports-reporting initiative is going to rank perceived market values of NFL teams on Thursday, the day the season opens. The Reuters story says Berkshire ultimately paid $13 billion for Pilot Flying J, which would've been enough money to buy the Browns — and another team.

Now Congress is part of the Executive Branch

Judge on Tuesday's (9/3) Halftime Report opened the show saying the semis were "ugly." Josh Brown cited the reaction to NVDA's earnings and stated, "Sentiment got a little bit carried away again."

Steve Weiss said tech in some ways does "hold the key" to the market, but, "I really think the key to the market is the economic data and what the Fed does."

Weiss said we're in a "rare circumstance" in which we've got "all 3, uh, parts of the Executive Branch (sic) up for grabs."

Joe Terranova claimed there are "2 forces at play today," one of them being "seasonality" (i.e., September) and the other having something to do with passive indexing (i.e., some sectors and stocks are actually up so it's not as bad as the indexes show).

Judge rattled off stats indicating strong market sentiment. Josh Brown said, "It would be weird if people weren't bullish."

On Fast Money, Guy Adami called Tuesday's trade as "sort of the aftermath of what we saw on August 5th. ... Personally I think there's more to go." Karen Finerman revealed, "This is actually one of the worst back-to-school days I've had in many many years," but we had a "very nice August" after the 5th. Even so, "I don't know what catalysts there are in the short term," Karen said.

Joe’s arguing for market timing again

Joe Terranova in the 10th minute of Tuesday's (9/3) Halftime Report advised viewers to "take down your exposure" in the megacaps and "assess your risk," and if you're "concentrated" in some direction, "I wouldn't concentrate in that direction anymore."

Even so, "I don't think you go to small caps," rather, Joe likes large cap and "quality" and there's "plenty of names" in financials and health care.

It's kinda the same argument Joe made against Adam Parker in February on Closing Bell when Adam recommended having 25% in megacap tech. Joe backpedaled from that one within a couple weeks.

Steve Weiss noted that trimming tech would prompt taxes (which might be a curious move for someone who might just buy the stocks back in a short time) and asked Joe, "What time frame are you referencing?" and how much short-term downside is there really in megacaps.

Joe's answer was, "I think it's mean reversion (snicker). ... I don't think megacap is going to give you the type of outperformance relative to the rest of the market that we've had over the last 18 months."

Joe insisted, "You had a lot of people right now who are overexposed to the megacaps."

But Weiss pointed to historical returns of tech and wondered, "I'm a normal retail investor, why wouldn't I just hold on and wait out any correction in this cycle."

Joe said Weiss "basically" is suggesting "buy and hold" which is "completely fine." Judge weighed in that what Weiss said has been "proven to be the right strategy," at least over 18 months. Joe said he's suggesting "it is the time to be tactical." Weiss said he views "tactical" as "waiting for those corrections in tech and then deploying cash in there."

Moments later, after Josh Brown rattled off some strong names recently, Joe noted how many of those names are outside of tech. Joe protested, "I'm not saying sell Nvidia. I'm not saying sell Apple. I'm not saying sell Microsoft. Those are names you should own. I'm saying, what degree do you own them." (So he's not saying sell 'em ... he's saying ... don't own as much as you have been ...)

Parker, by the way, was coincidentally on Closing Bell Tuesday and 1) didn't mention Joe's loopy call and 2) said he sees a "bigger than normal inconsistency" between rate-cut forecasts and earnings estimates.

Weiss has nothing to say about MRNA

It was sorta Book Day on Tuesday's (9/3) Halftime Report as Judge in the 50th minute touted Josh Brown's new book.

Josh claimed the book is "15 years in the making." Josh said he's written 4 books, but "this is really the one."

(Remember about 10 years ago when you heard about When the Wolves Bite practically every day.)

Meanwhile, Sarat Sethi cast doubt on the Deutsche Bank downgrade of JPM, advising holding it through good or bad times.

Josh Brown said if you tried to trade JPM based on analysts' overvalued calls, check out longer-term returns vs. other banks; Josh would "hard ignore" those calls. Josh said insurance stocks are rolling, probably because they are a "classic mid-cycle play." Josh also suggested maybe avoiding consumer discretionary; "the staples look much better."

Josh sold NTAP, stating it had been a great stock but "things change." Josh said there's a "big tailwind" for ORCL, though he doesn't own it. Sarat owns ORCL and said it's expensive but that it's executing and can go higher.

Joe Terranova said, "Momentum's actually waning in Steel Dynamics" and noted it's "infrequently spoken about on the network." Judge said people have been "transfixed" on U.S. Steel and noted (in an indirect way) that some people on the panel love to talk about CLF, an in-joke that some viewers wouldn't get.

Santoli suggested the stock market had been munching on "empty calories" on Friday.

Jim & Frank way apart on NVDA forward P.E.; Rob finds a stock to sell

In what seemed a little bit of overhype, Bryn Talkington on Friday's (8/30) Halftime Report said she would "implore" viewers to listen to the "wonderful" NVDA earnings call.

"If Nvidia did nothing for the rest of the year, it's still gonna be probably the best-performing stock," Bryn explained.

Jim Lebenthal stated, "I own a nice-sized chunk of Nvidia. I'm very happy holding it. I was not thrown at all by yesterday's price movement."

Jim then stated that NVDA forward earnings is "29 times." Guest host Frank Holland said "according to our system ... we have it at 40 times forward earnings in our system." No one tried to explain the discrepancy. (Apparently, on Wall Street, you can find numbers to tell you whatever you want.)

Jim defended Pat Gelsinger amid pushback from Stephanie Link and praised Pat for at least making a decision that apparently didn't work.

Stephanie Link bought more CRWD. (This writer is long CRWD.) Stephanie said, "I started buying this when it fell 41% from its highs," always a key metric for Halftime Report panelists.

Frank questioned if Stephanie isn't concerned about "how rich this stock still is." Stephanie said "there's always concerns," but operating margins actually expanded and the stock's EV/sales fell from 22 to 13.6. (Frank apparently didn't have that statistic available for comparison.) Bryn said she bought BUG because she likes the space but doesn't know who the "actual winners" will be.

Jim trumpeted August winners GM and ONON. Frank noted Bryn had winners PLTR and VNOM but asked about an August loser, ETHE. Bryn said there's a "dispersion" between bitcoin and ethereum.

Bill Baruch dialed in to talk up DELL, suggesting 134 by year-end. Bill indicated he's not concerned about current-quarter guidance being below estimates.

Rob Sechan dialed in to say he sold LULU, which had been on a "short leash" but now provides "potential tax loss benefits" (always a key consideration of Rob's) against the "good performers" in the portfolio. Rob insisted LULU is still challenged in its "core business." Rob conceded it's "still a high-quality business," but, "We are taking this from a tax-loss standpoint."

Friday's Associated Press stock market recap article included a quote from Liz Young Thomas, who told the news organization, “The payroll data next week is incredibly important."

NVDA was a gift on the day Jeremy Siegel called for an emergency 50-point rate cut

Josh Brown opened Thursday's (8/29) Halftime Report saying he tries to "be like the voice of the sane person (snicker)."

Josh said that, "Anyone speaking hyperbolically about Nvidia somehow disappointing or missing or, no, Nvidia doesn't miss — the analysts who cover the stock miss."

Josh crowed about his argument a couple days ago with Rob Sechan about the notion of how the market might "shoot the generals" if Nvidia "takes a pause," with Josh saying Thursday that his expectation is "exactly how things are playing out today."

Kevin Simpson crowed about selling NVDA 145 September calls for $4.95 (the screen said $3.95) that are now worth 73 cents (which sounds like an intriguing buy). Josh even asked Kevin if he'd "buy those back" or let them expire worthless (assuming they expire worthless). Kevin said he'd "probably buy 'em back."

Liz Young Thomas said that the fact the rest of the market is doing well while NVDA pauses means "Optimism is still on."

Bill Baruch pointed out that finally getting NVDA's earnings "removes uncertainty" from the market.

Josh: ‘Ton of pessimism’ already in CRWD

Josh Brown on Thursday's (8/29) Halftime Report said you can call CRWD's gain a "comeback" and said the CRWD management team probably had "literally (sic) the worst summer ever." (This writer is long CRWD.)

Josh said the gain in the face of lower guidance is "all the signal you need to understand that there's a ton of pessimism already in the story."

Josh said he wouldn't put a $400 on CRWD because it "doesn't deserve to" get there, but "we're gonna stop talkin' about this IT outage probably next quarter or the quarter after," a point this page agrees with.

Bill Baruch said CRWD has been "trading very well" for a couple of weeks and that Thursday is a "very good day" for the stock.

Josh pointed out that George Kurtz said deals were only "delayed" by the outage and not canceled.

Judge hasn’t mentioned unusual options activity for a long time, wonder why

Josh Brown on Thursday's (8/29) Halftime Report said CRM is in "the middle of no-man's land technically" and while it indeed may become king of enterprise AI, it's not happening immediately, it's a "multi-year story."

Josh suggested the NTAP "exacerbated volatility may be around the Nvidia, uh, news."

Bill Baruch likes DELL and said he's looking for a reason to add to the stock.

Kevin Simpson touted ADBE buybacks.

Judge said NTRA is in Kevin's QDVO ETF.

Judge is mentioning upgrades from shops he’s never heard of

Judge on Thursday's (8/31) Halftime Report said Clarksons Platou is calling FCX a buy, and Judge said "We never mentioned them before ... No disrespect to Clarksons Platou but we never talked about them before."

Kevin Simpson said a 58 target on FCX is "a little bit lofty." Josh Brown wondered if Clarksons is a "person."

Kevin said DZ Bank's upgrade of PG is a "little bit late to the party for an ugrade."

In a curious category of "comeback kids" (basically just a handful of the gobs of stocks that surged since Jeremy Siegel called for an emergency 50-point cut), Josh once again touted TTD and SG and IOT and ... somehow ... even PYPL. He admitted he doesn't "fully" trust PYPL but said "The narrative here is shifting (snicker)."

Bill Baruch touted MTZ and LDOS.

Tip: Bill’s gain in a stock has no bearing on whether it’s going higher

Josh Brown on Thursday's (8/29) Halftime Report said of Berkshire, "I can make the case that it's both offensive and defensive."

Bill Baruch sold DUK, "it's really served its purpose; we've gained about 20% on this name since buying it earlier this year." He said DUK is entering a capex cycle.

Liz Young Thomas said she likes utilities but they are "almost at overbought." Josh said it's not "early" in the utilities trade but he doesn't "dislike" the idea of owning them.

Josh Brown curiously said Malik Nabers was "supposed to go 3rd or 4th round."

Guest hosting on Fast Money, Sully said maybe Dollar General should be called "75-Cent General."

Guy Adami said during Final Trades that Sully would be at "one of the great steakhouses" around Times Square shortly after the show; had we been in town, we definitely would've taken up Guy's suggestion to join Sully for a meal.

Guy: You can get NVDA at a ‘better entry point’

Judge on Wednesday's (8/28) Halftime Report said Dan Ives is calling the NVDA earnings report potentially the most important "in years" (snicker).

Jason Snipe agreed "there's a lot riding on" the report and said "it's about the magnitude of the beat and raise."

Joe Terranova said it "sets the tone for risk in the coming days." Joe said if NVDA misses, there'll be a "stress test" for the rest of the market.

Judge said, "Dan Ives, he likes his superlatives, he likes his cliches, he likes his analogies. I totally get it." Ives was on Closing Bell with Judge a couple hours later ... and wore a lime-green jacket.

Steve Weiss was "unwilling" to put quite the same emphasis on NVDA earnings as Ives has.

Dan Nathan said on Fast Money that NVDA "just didn't hit the whisper numbers." He added, "I wouldn't be buying it here." Steve Grasso said he was early in warning about this, but NVDA's buyback plan seems like a "red flag."

On CRWD, Steve Grasso wondered whether anyone has been fired for the July outage. Bonawyn Eison offered, "I think there's more pain ahead." (This writer is long CRWD.)

Joe lashes out at social media ribbing over JOET’s percentage stake in financials

Judge on Wednesday's (8/28) Halftime Report mentioned Berkshire crossing $1 trillion in market cap.

Steve Weiss said Warren Buffett's "visibility" has "declined" in recent years (he meant "visibility" in terms of how often we see Warren, not Warren's economic outlook), and "I tend to think that what's going on now is succession planning."

Joe Terranova boasted about the JOET boosting its financials exposure from 8% a year ago to 28% now. Joe said "You can send me all the, the tweets and and social media hate that you want, but that's that ... the right place to be." (Whew. This page is not a "tweet" nor "social media." Nor does it deal in "hate.")

Joe said if you've got SMCI, "I would tell you to step to the sidelines." Joe said the JOET bought it at the end of July, "there's a 40% loss on the stock right now." But Joe said for those who question equal-weighting, "This is a reason why you're equally weighted." (Hopefully he doesn't stop and read the tweets he gets about that subject.)

Bryn Talkington said her previous advice to sell TSLA October 250 calls is a "good trade right now."

Judge said Bernstein calls NFLX "the easiest to own stock in all of media." Jason Snipe said he "couldn't agree more." (This writer is long NFLX.) Jason said the last time the stock was around this price was October of 2021. Jason mentioned the ad tier, live sports and content library. Weiss said he likes the stock also and was "pissed off" after he sold some of it recently. "Management does not get enough credit," Weiss said. Weiss correctly described the company as a "unique asset here that you can't get elsewhere." Joe mentioned ... yep ... the Christmas Day NFL games ...

Bryn described the bitcoin trade as an "amplified version" of the Nasdaq.

We're tired of hearing about PLTR. Bryn said it's "one of the names to own" for AI reasons. Joe said it's the "most underappreciated AI-adjacent name within the marketplace."

Rob says ‘one of the issues’ he deals with is inability to sell stocks with big long-term gains

It's not as sexy as Bryn Talkington talking about P.E. ratios, but it's close.

Rob Sechan, on Tuesday's (8/27) Halftime Report, once again brought up maybe the strangest problem mentioned on the program:

Stocks that go up so much, people refuse to sell, because they don't want to — or perhaps can’t — pay the taxes. (But if the gains aren't so large, apparently, somehow they have no trouble paying taxes.)

Rob on Tuesday said of HD and LOW, "They've been long-term holdings for us. They've done incredibly well. One of the issues that we have is they've compounded so effectively over a long period of time that we can't trim them."

It seems to us there are 2 simple solutions to this problem of not wanting to pay taxes on stock gains: 1) Write your congressman; 2) Only put your stocks in tax-free accounts.

But if the goal is to stockpile untouchable gains for decades and let the organization that eventually receives the bequest deal with the taxes, then you might as well do exactly what Rob is talking about.

Jim says Lourenco is ‘a little ticked off,’ apparently because his offer was spurned in favor of one that’s going to be vetoed

Tuesday's (8/27) Halftime Report included a feisty debate that a lot of folks would have to say involves some deep-in-the-weeds type of subject matter.

It was all about what happens to stocks in general if investors "shoot the generals" of the market. (Seriously, that's what it was about.)

It involved yet another preview of NVDA earnings. Josh Brown pointed out how much NVDA's customers spend on its product but conceded "guidance is gonna be key."

But Rob Sechan said he doesn't care about what Nvidia says; he's watching the "price action after" to see if investors start to "shoot the generals" of the market.

Josh cut in to say we've had "tremors" in the generals, they're temporary, and the money just goes into other sectors.

Rob cut in to say that in 2022, that's not what happened.

Josh cut back in to say "that's a bear market; I'm talking about this year."

Rob said "Can I finish" and said that in 2022, only energy got new money.

Judge had started the show asking his panel if they "believe" in the market broadening.

Josh noted big gains this year of some non-tech stocks and said "facts are facts," there is broadening in the market. Stephanie Link offered that "Growth is still outperforming value by 8 percentage points year to date."

Judge said Rick Rieder wasn't a "big believer" in the broadening story; Rick dialed in and said, rather skeptically, that we've "gotten a decent amount of the move" and there's "a lot of good news that's priced in."

Josh explained why he's long JPM rather than cheaper banks, opining that in the financial space, "Stock price very often dictates the fundamentals." (Um, it's an effect, not a cause ... but whatever.)

Jim Lebenthal, who had a quiet show, said "enough," he finally got out of PARA and blasted the Skydance deal again.

We learned from Judge's graphic that CLF's share price is only $14. Jim yet again painted a bullish picture for the company. Jim said Lourenco isn't going to redo his original offer for X "at the same price he offered" if the Japan-X acquisition falls apart; "he's a little ticked off." Jim said Lourenco may try to "pick off some pieces" of a failed X deal.

Joe, Weiss both make the correct point about CMG

An interesting little (and we mean little) debate took place on Monday's (8/26) Halftime Report when Joe Terranova questioned why Scott Boatwright is "not the permanent CEO" at CMG.

Steve Weiss defended the interim designation, stating, "They basically have to go out and see what's- else is, what else is out there."

Joe insisted he wants "consistency in the management team."

Hmmmm. Interesting debate. We can't really see any downside, to the company, for the interim tag. The risk would be that he takes another job. But if he were being recruited elsewhere, he already would've left; what job is he going to get that's better than this one.

The "interim" tag allows the company to get a sneak preview. If Boatwright performs well, they can shower him with money and titles. If he's mediocre or worse, they can easily change.

It's like an NFL team with its quarterback injured in December that gets to use a college quarterback for the remaining games and can wait to decide whether to draft him AFTER seeing him play.

Or, it's like a guy at DIS (that would be Chapek) NOT getting the interim title but still being it because, um, Bob is sorta still there.

So Weiss is correct. But Joe is not incorrect. What Joe is sort of implying is that Mr. Boatwright, just handed the keys to a Ferrari, may not yet have wowed the board. If true, that would be an important consideration for potential buyers of the stock.

Weiss wants CRWD to get ‘crushed’ — so he can buy it

"You're not doing anything this week," Joe Terranova advised at the top of Monday's (8/26) Halftime Report, before explaining, "The response is the most critical component of the Nvidia earnings" (for all those stock owners who care about obscure metrics but not how much the stock goes up or down).

Steve Weiss said this is an "optimistic" market with a "constructive" backdrop, but the debate eventually will be whether the Fed can cut "fast enough." Weiss went to the well again on the "delayed impact" of all the rate hikes, apparently thinking one of these days it's going to be true.

Weiss actually talked up the onshoring trade and said he bought CAT.

Joe said "we" own ADSK but he's not yet sold on the "turnaround story."

Judge said B of A reiterated UBER as a buy; it seems to get those kinds of upgrades every day, along with $100 price target calls from panelists on the show. Sarat Sethi let slip a little boast about buying/liking UBER "in the 20s" (which doesn't do anyone any good now) and said he's "potentially" looking to sell his remaining stake. Joe expressed concern over UBER's chart of the last 3 months.

Weiss touted Brad Jacobs at QXO and gave a complicated explanation about how Jacobs raised money (somewhere) and how Weiss took part.

Judge noted CRWD, like NVDA, has earnings Wednesday. (This writer is long CRWD and NVDA.) Joe said CRWD doesn't want to miss on guidance and revenue but agreed with Judge that the CEO will probably indicate "this is as bad as it's gonna be." Weiss said, "I would love it to get crushed so I can buy it."

On Fast Money, Carter Worth advised viewers to "play long" in NVDA into earnings and post-earnings. Guy Adami said it'll "come down to margins" and said the stock could be "vulnerable to the downside."

Jenny’s P.E. Ratio Calculator says the market can’t go much higher (a/k/a What’s the P.E. ratio of Advance Auto Parts)

Shortly into Friday's (8/23) Halftime Report, Jenny Harrington declared something she has declared many times previously, "Valuation matters! And I don't think the market broadly gets past that."

Jenny said she wouldn't buy SPYders or the QQQ (of course), but there's "tons of individual stocks" you can buy, apparently with lower. P. E. Ratios.

Kevin Simpson claimed Jenny's right but pointed to 1995-96 in stating how markets can throw "logic to the wind" and go higher.

Josh Brown said "Jenny's right that this is obviously, uh, a stretched S&P 500." But Brown said "we've been in this position before" where "we've been bailed out" by earnings growth.

Josh also said, "If you pull out the, the Big 7, um, the multiple is not all that egregious."

Karen says Jay Powell has done a ‘masterful job’

Guest host Frank Holland opened Friday's (8/23) Halftime Report saying, "We got a very dovish Jay Powell."

Jenny Harrington shrugged, "I don't think anything's new." Frank wondered, "Nothing's changed???" Jenny said, "Not really."

Frank said Rick Rieder is baking in multiple rate cuts and thinks the door's open to a 50-point cut. Kevin Simpson said the market's expecting 100 points by year-end; he thinks there was an "overreaction to the upside" in morning trading.

Josh Brown didn't seem that surprised either, but Frank said, "I was a little surprised by just how dovish he really was."

Bryn Talkington said Powell's speech was "refreshing" and "clear."

Bryn said Powell was "very self-deprecating" and "made some jokes" about inflation being transitory in 2021.

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso said Powell has "done the best job anyone could've done in that seat." But Grasso thinks "they should've been cutting probably in March." Grasso said he's "looking to sell things right now, not to buy things."

Karen Finerman though stated Powell has done a "masterful job."

Josh indicates it would’ve been a good move to buy NVDA a couple weeks ago

Bryn Talkington on Friday's (8/23) Halftime Report said it would be "shocking" if NVDA doesn't have a "massive beat and guide higher." (This writer is long NVDA.)

Josh Brown said of NVDA's biggest customers, "None of them are pulling back on spending." But Josh said that a couple weeks ago was probably a better time to build an NVDA position than right now.

Kevin Simpson hailed Amplify's launch of the QDVO ETF, which has Megacap Tech stocks with a call-writing strategy.

Leslie Picker reported that Third Point likes AAPL and AAPL's AI prospects.

Josh once again touted UBER, this time for its partnership with Cruise. Josh said his forward P.E. for UBER is 32, the "cheapest" since it became a profitable company a few quarters ago.

Josh said SG was having a "rally in sympathy" with CAVA.

From Jackson Hole, Austan Goolsbee told Steve Liesman that Powell "gave an excellent speech." Goolsbee indicated rates should only be at these levels to cool an overheating economy, but, "This is not overheating."

Jenny Harrington sold SLG because it's been up "way too much."

CNBC graphics still having spellcheck trouble (a/k/a Sara calls Sydney Sweeney the ‘It Girl’)

Josh Brown on Thursday's (8/22) Halftime Report said the early August volatility is "probably as wild as things will get."

Josh said he watched "a couple of the clips" from Aug. 5 and concluded, "I don't think anyone in professional money management was really falling prey to, to all of that negativity. I think it was mostly a Twitter phenomenon, quite frankly."

Anastasia Amoroso said "we needed to correct, uh, when we came into the middle of July ... now we're sort of on the other side of that, and we're actually seeing systematic buying pressure as well as the buybacks come back into the market."

Steve Liesman, in vest from Jackson Hole, mentioned numerous times the importance of the "data" (pronounced DAY-ta) to the Fed.

Anastasia mentioned "data (pronounced DAY-ta) centers." Josh made an extended case for IOT.

In the category of Apparently Timing The Market, Stephanie Link trimmed AAPL after her position went from 1% to 9% and said, "The stock is up 32% since May" and mentioned "32%" again (tip: stock prices don't care about someone's position size) (unless maybe it's Warren Buffett's).

Frank Holland mentioned AAP's slide (Frank didn't mention that this used to be a Jenny Harrington name); Jason Snipe compared it with AZO and mentioned the ways in which AZO is stronger and might not be as affected by the "challenging marketplace."

Josh again touted UBER, this time the S&P Global debt upgrade to investment grade.

The panel went through some stocks at 52-week or all-time highs, including DHI, MMM, PG, TTD; most of those we didn't actually realize are at highs.

On Fast Money, CNBC's Eamon Javers reported that there's "rhetoric" from the Democratic Party but "no definition even of what price-gouging is." Karen Finerman said the party is trying to "build up Kamala Harris."

Karen said of CAVA, "This is sort of Chipotle 2.0."

Guy Adami boasted that he has no idea who Sydney Sweeney is. Guest host Sara Eisen told Guy, "You're under a rock. She is the It Girl right now." Tim Seymour admitted being "clueless on this." Karen Finerman stated, "I do know who Sydney Sweeney is."

Sydney, by the way, played one of the Manson Family characters in "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood."

Joe says market risk for 10 days is ‘specifically related to Nvidia’

In a sleepy Halftime Report on Wednesday (8/21), Joe Terranova mentioned the NFL Christmas Day games (we're going to hear about those for months) on NFLX and stated that a 735 target for the stock "is too low." (This writer is long NFLX.)

Joe said the "calendar" is about the only reason to bet against the market right now, though there have been big gains and "it does probably need a pullback."

Then Joe narrowed the scope of the conversation, stating, "The risk is specifically related to Nvidia ... within the next 10 days." Judge noted the NVDA earnings report is "a week from today." (This writer is long NVDA.)

After the A Block, Judge brought up CRWD, stating, "I feel like we talk about it almost every day." (This writer is long CRWD.) He said JPMorgan made it a top pick with a 330 target. Joe praised the CRWD management team and stated, "I think the cybersecurity names are back once again."

After a technical glitch, Bill Baruch beamed in remotely to explain that he bought November QQQ 450 puts, for protection "if the market starts to roll over." Make of that what you will.

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said of M, "The deal's over."

Bill’s timing the market

It's true that Halftime Report/Fast Money is/are supposedly trading shows, and the shows indeed should be about trades.

Sometimes, however, people seem to be overthinking it, such as Bill Baruch, who every couple of weeks is dialing in to explain how he's reversing a position he put on just days or weeks earlier.

Bill on Tuesday (8/20) dialed in to discuss trimming NVDA, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META and SNPS. Bill said he trimmed "between 10 and 20%" in those names. (This writer is long NVDA and GOOGL.)

OK, fine, fair enough, he's trimming.

Bill cited as his rationale "8 straight up days" and that the rally has happened with "4 rate cuts being priced in." Bill asserted, "There is a lot of resistance right here."

OK, that's where we start to question whether Bill can effectively call the market day to day and/or whether someone long AAPL for 2 years will do better than someone who is, for reasons that escape us, trying to trade it every week.

Meanwhile, PYPL has somehow gone up recently, so Josh Brown is interested again, though he freely admitted, "I have lost money in this name before." Brown cited the "incremental moves" made by the new CEO.

Kari Firestone joked that she remembered "the last time Josh bought it, because we had sold it, and I wish Josh luck." Kari said if retail holds up, "it's good for PayPal."

Josh is sticking with MMM and says he likes the setup.

Rob Sechan took yet another victory lap on buying LLY a long time ago (which doesn't necessarily mean it's a great stock to buy now).

Judge brought up PANW and CRWD to Josh. (This writer is long CRWD.) Josh said there's a "secular trend" in cyber spending "that's only going in one direction." Josh said he thinks CRWD "has upside" but cautioned, "it's still a premium valuation," evidently not agreeing with Bryn Talkington's statement on valuation a day earlier (see below).

Also missing Bryn's point, Rob Sechan said LULU is the cheapest valuation since COVID lows, but he conceded it "may someday be a tax loss candidate this year."

Steve Liesman via phone told Judge that Jay Powell in 2022 was "unconditionally hawkish" and in 2023 was "conditionally hawkish." Now, Steve expects the Fed chair to be "conditionally dovish."

Josh Brown once again trumpeted NDAQ.

Guy Adami on Fast Money mentioned "The Needle and the Damage is (sic not part of the actual title) Done."

Bryn says valuation is a ‘terrible, horrible’ way to forecast stocks

The stock market concept of "valuation" is one of the more curious things you hear about on television.

It's sort of the light saber of "value" investors, who always have a good story from March 2000 to explain why they don't buy tech stocks.

This page has regularly questioned (partly because Judge never does) exactly how, as so many Halftime Report panelists claim day after day, "valuation" can be a predictor of stock performance.

On Monday (8/19), Bryn Talkington impressively didn't wait for any prompting from Judge or anyone else, bluntly stating, "Valuations by the way are a terrible, horrible, non-correlative metric, um, overlooking at 1-year forward returns. So just like, it doesn't matter at all. There's just no correlation between future returns and- on 1 year in valuations."

No one, including Judge, said anything to the contrary.

Chris Hyzy: ‘Very, very difficult to stop this market from going higher’

While we were waiting for the Democratic Party to finally put Joe Biden on stage Monday (tip: they wanted you to see her in prime time, not him during the late show), we took note of the stock market analysis on Monday's (8/19) Halftime Report.

But actually, the strongest market call we heard was from Chris Hyzy on Closing Bell, when he told Judge, "It's gonna be very, very difficult to stop this market from going higher."

On Halftime, Bryn Talkington cautioned about getting too skeptical of the market and falling for "recency bias" from the aftermath of the 2022 annual Fed gathering. "Historically, if you go back, markets are actually up, um, 2 weeks after Jackson Hole," Bryn said.

Joe Terranova said the big recent gains aren't necessarily a reason to sell. "When it has that type of V-shape pattern, that's generally the point where you make new all-time highs," Joe said.

Joe again advised sticking with megacaps while conceding there will be a "moderation" in the growth.

Kevin Simpson said he's "hard-pressed" to recall a 2-week period like the one we just had. He thinks stocks may not keep going up "in a straight line, but I think the bull narrative holds true."

Bryn said she thinks the trend of companies buying AI chips from NVDA is "intact." (This writer is long NVDA.) As for moderation, Bryn said the QQQ has a cumulative 3-year return of 33%, "that's it," while 97-99 was "a hundred-plus percent."

Joe questioned why some people view positive AMD headlines as negatives for NVDA. Judge said NVDA was up 2% and he wondered, "Who said this deal was bad for Nvidia? I haven't heard any of that." Joe claimed "there's a couple notes out there on social media (snicker) and competing networks (snicker)." Judge questioned if the notes Joe purportedly saw on social media are "real notes." Kevin wondered "what are the other networks."

Joe made a social media joke about his Final Trade, EQT.

We always hear about selling upside calls; almost never hear about buying upside calls

Joe Terranova on Monday's (8/19) Halftime noted PANW is almost back to its February "breakdown level" of 360 but cautioned about "spending fatigue." Judge said Joe's description of PANW sounds like what they could be saying about CRWD. Joe said CRWD has a "longer timeline" than PANW for restoring confidence. (This writer is long CRWD.)

Joe explained why he sold ITA; it's not really worth going into.

Bryn Talkington said if you think TSLA is debuting a robotaxi in mid-October, you need to "rethink" that. Bryn said "there's a lot of support" in the stock over $200. In fact, Bryn's Final Trade was to sell the TSLA December 250 for $18.60.

Judge said Evercore lifted MCD to 320. Kevin Simpson said he doesn't think it can top $300.

Kevin touted selling FCX 47 calls (unclear which month) and, as always, talked about the "annualized cash flow" from selling this call. Bryn said she sold January 50 calls.

Joe admitted he sold the GLD "way too soon."

Karen calls the Ford Flex ‘one of the worst cars ever’

On Friday's (8/16) Fast Money, Karen Finerman postulated to guest host Sully about just having the year's best week in stocks that "part of the reason we had the best week was still residual, leftover, something or other from the pressure that was on the market last week from the unwind. I think."

Late in the show, Robert Frank reported on the classic car auction in Monterey. Karen Finerman said Lotus is "not a bad car actually," but "I have one of the worst cars ever — a Ford Flex."

Sully argued, "Oh I love that car. The wagon? The square wagon? It's an awesome car!"

"It's awesome-looking, but you have terrible blind spots," Karen explained. Karen said Lotus was up 12% "on no news," maybe because there were "Loti" (sic not the Creedence song) for sale at the show.

Sully for whatever reason thought the show was ending with about 5 minutes left (once in a while, Judge is way off on the minute count also) and introduced all his friends in the gallery. That shot revealed Karen Finerman's ensemble of chic white pants and white sneakers. Julie Biel was on the program but did not mention swimwear.

Either way, Jim’s right

Early on Friday's (8/16) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal seemed to offer up competing views of the financial markets at the same time.

Jim said he sees new highs by year-end, then asserted "this is a time to be fully invested" while also asserting, "This is also seasonally a terrible time."

Judge, sans tie, opened the show asking Josh Brown about the Stonehenge discovery, "Are we heading to new highs?"

Josh said to look at "what's been rallying," and from that, "you have to conclude that, yes. The market is in a buying mood."

Josh said, "People got too bearish all at once on the economy, and they've had to reverse themselves."

Josh marveled at the beta in NVDA and said the stock is "its own casino." (This writer is long NVDA.)

Josh also marveled at DECK buying Hoka for just $1 million 10 years ago. However, he doesn't own DECK.

Stephanie Link a couple times brought up buying CRWD on the rebound, stating the "breach" (sic meant "glitch" or "outage") won't be "that big of a deal in the long term." (This writer is long CRWD.)

Josh bought TTD for his personal account. "I think you can buy it here for an impending breakout," Brown said.

Josh also bought SG, citing a "breakaway gap in this chart." Brown said that in Manhattan, "There's never a line outside," which is a good thing because "nobody has time to wait in line for lunch."

Brown said SG has a concept called "Infinite Kitchens" from buying a robot startup a few years ago; its Naperville, Ill., store "basically" functions as a "vending machine." Josh suggested the company is a "robotics play" that could license the technology to others.

Judge and Santoli talked up this week's Taking Stock (in the Cramer slot). Santoli said "we're trying to synthesize, uh, what mattered and, and maybe didn't as much this week," as well as a "debate" about what previous year/cycle August 2024 resembles. Guests were Liz Young Thomas and Dan Greenhaus.

Rob Sechan, as most of Judge's panelists do nowadays, dialed in to trumpet the big day for HRB. Rob said, "In the last year, it's up 80%, outperforming 6 of the Mag 7 names." Judge claimed "it's up near 40% year to date," when it actually appears to be up 33%, with a dividend yield of about 2%.

On Closing Bell, Judge yet again called Aug. 5 a "panic attack."

Belski predicts retest
of Aug. 5 low

More than halfway through Thursday's (8/15) Halftime, Judge was asking Brian Belski for a "high quality buy basket."

After a bit of speechmaking, Belski revealed that he buried the lede, claiming, "I think we're gonna most likely have a retest of the low that we made last Monday."

"Oh really?!" Judge responded, surprised.

No other panelists on the Halftime Report jumped on that, but Joe Terranova on Closing Bell separately predicted, "Anytime there's a correction in the market ... you're going to see corporate buybacks," as well as the "retail community" buying up 5% pullbacks.

Judge opened Halftime asking if this is Goldilocks. (And the fact he's asking that question kind of tells you the answer.) Belski opened the show stating, "I think that 25 basis points might not happen in September."

Liz Young Thomas (Judge almost left off the "Thomas" during Final Trades) said the markets have gotten "jumpy" about data (pronounced DAY-ta), but the data is "solid." Jim Lebenthal admitted, "I feel good."

Jim claimed that small caps are a place where you can get a "bang for your buck."

Later in the program, Judge was still talking about Tom Lee's ridiculous small-caps-50% call, which is about as ludicrous as those TV commercials where Whitney Tilson claims to have anticipated numerous major stock market moments and only got out of the business because he got tired of making money for rich people.

Regarding C, Jim said he and Mike Mayo "see absolutely no reason why this trades at a discount to tangible book (snicker) value."

After the A Block, Jim made the case for CRH.

Guy says Jeremy Siegel was having an ‘out-of-body experience’ during Jeremy’s ‘emergency’ rate-cut call

On Wednesday's (8/14) Closing Bell, Jan Hatzius got top billing over Jeremy Siegel.

But Judge eventually got to Jeremy, and, regarding his "emergency" 75-point rate-cut call of last week, Jeremy protested to Judge, "By the way, I didn't say there was a recession, I didn't say it's a bear market, I didn't say dump your stocks." But he allowed that if given a do-over, "I would've stated it differently."

A couple hours after that, Guy Adami on Fast Money said of Jeremy's commentary, "Everything that he said implied everything that he just said he didn't mean."

"Right. Which is a head-scratcher," Mel said.

Karen Finerman started to say that if the Fed had announced exactly what Jeremy prescribed, then ... and Mel finished the statement, "the markets would go haywire."

Guy offered, "I don't know what he was thinking that day. It was sort of an out-of-body experience for him clearly."

Bryn, Shannon disagree on the merits of Rick Rieder’s recommendation

Judge opened Wednesday's (8/14) Halftime replaying Rick Rieder's clip on Closing Bell a day earlier in which Rick first said stocks a year from now will be higher but then said "seasonals aren't great" for reasons such as "election" and "Mideast" (how much are stocks up since Oct. 7?), and ultimately recommended "de-risking."

Joe Terranova said Rieder's advice "sounds very logical," but he wouldn't sell megacap tech, which has been "remarkably resilient."

Joe said the Russell just had a "false rebound."

Bryn Talkington said she's "at odds" with Rieder's forecast because it's a timing call, he thinks stocks will be higher in a year, and if you trim now, "when do you get back in," as "timing is so difficult."

But Shannon Saccocia said "I disagree, Scott, with Bryn," because "I do think we're gonna see some more volatility" and the "boost" from a presidential year tends to "come a little bit later, closer to November."

Rob Sechan said the Fed "seems to be living on current data or in the past."

So much for culture: Judge wasn’t the slightest bit interested in the Stonehenge mystery reported by Bertha

Judge on Wednesday's (8/14) Halftime Report brought up "regulatory risk" regarding what the Justice Department might do to Alphabet.

In a remarkable example of candor, Judge posed a question about how it seems like the companies "write a check, if anything," and "pay the fine" and it never moves the stock, and do we need to "reconsider" how much regulatory fears are baked into stocks.

Joe Terranova indicated agreement; "They pay the fine, and they move on." Rather, he said the biggest investor concern for Alphabet is "level of spending."

Hours later, the Fast Money crew took up Alphabet vs. Justice Dept. Steve Grasso and perhaps the others think the sum of the parts broken up might be worth more than the current company.

Karen Finerman predicted, "I kinda think that we will get bored with this story shortly, and that we'll go back to the thing that will drive Google in the short term is, How is Google doing in its business."

Gene Munster said if we woke up tomorrow to an announcement about Google being broken up, he would expect the stock to be up "probably 5% plus."

Judge doesn’t really need to put together a panel at Post 9; everyone calls in to talk about their new buys

Stephanie Link on Wednesday's (8/14) Halftime Report dialed in to say she bought CMG, citing the strong management team aside from Brian Niccol.

Joe Terranova though was still skeptical, stating, "The one thing that bothered me was the fact that Scott Boatright ... he's the interim CEO" and not (yet) permanent.

Joe, though, admitted that when he came home the night before, his kids were eating Chipotle.

Joe touted tech, in Tony Pasquariello's terms of "the sword and the shield."

Rob Sechan said of scooping up NVDA a week ago (probably somewhere around that gift (as Jon Najarian would call it) price of 92-92), "We literally (we could check out the accuracy of that word, but whatever) bought it on the lows on the show that day." (This writer is long NVDA.)

CNBC's Dee Bosa offered "here's the rub," that many megacaps are "still expensive" compared with the last 5-10 years.

Judge said Wells Fargo cut its FANG price target from 230 to 231; "the research into that is- must be astounding," Judge deadpanned, without admitting that this whole $1 drop is probably the reason it got mentioned on his program. Judge added that DVN was "cut to 55 from 57." Bryn Talkington lamented of DVN, "the market does not like this name."

On Fast Money, Grandpa Guy Adami warned, "This is happening before our very eyes: The unemployment rate is going higher whether you like it or not, and the market is not pricing any of this in."

Joe likens Niccol departure to Brady leaving the Pats

Judge on Tuesday's (8/13) Halftime Report went straight to the CMG-SBUX management shake-up and noted CMG is in the JOET.

Joe Terranova lamented that "the rules are the rules" and he can't do anything about CMG right now, though, "If I had the ability to do something, I would sell it," given that Niccol is "a Hall of Fame CEO in the restaurant industry. He's the best."

Joe even said, "It's the same type of effect, the same concern that you have when Tom Brady left the New England Patriots and went to Tampa."

Joe conceded "there's a lot of excitement" in SBUX, but he'll wait to buy the stock. Judge noted SBUX isn't cheap. Joe conceded the company's headwinds but stated, "Niccol brings excitement."

Stephanie Link said it's not a case of "all is lost" at CMG, as Boatright has a "great reputation." Stephanie predicted Niccol will split off the China operation from the rest of SBUX.

Joe at one point countered that CMG "still needs that stewardship."

Judge said just a day ago, he asked the panel about excitement in SBUX and got "crickets."

Joe said the move is "really bad timing" for CMG, because Ackman (snicker) is "kinda looking for the exit somewhat," and the stock had begun to stumble since the end of June.

Stephanie said "the stock is down 30% from the highs," always Halftime Report folks' favorite metric.

Judge reported that Trian had been building an SBUX stake, and now suddenly "they're out." While Judge delivered that report, the screen text detailing his report misspelled Mellody Hobson. (#somuchforAI) It was corrected moments later.

Judge said Brian Belski is the show's only panelist who owns SBUX; Brian joined remotely to trumpet the trade that he said he put on June 1. Then Brian's connection went out.

Connection restored, Belski said he'll hold SBUX "for a while" and stated SBUX's "peak P.E. was at 50 times." He likened it to buying NFLX 2 years ago. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Rob Sechan, one of many panelists who wasn't really on the show but beaming in remotely, at one point said "Chipulte" (sic pronunciation) (haven't heard one of those in a while).

Judge decides most of his panelists should dial in, even if they weren’t booked for the show

Stephanie Link on Tuesday's (8/13) Halftime Report again talked about buying a "small position" in CRWD recently. (This writer is long CRWD.) Before a commercial break, Judge teased this as a new move, when Stephanie actually announced it last week. (Judge at one point said "Crowdstike" (sic).)

"They'll get through this issue," Stephanie asserted, conceding "they're gonna have to lower numbers," but she thinks it's got a "sticky customer base."

Joe Terranova said cybersecurity is an "enduring thesis that we'll be speaking about 2 years from now." (Only 2 years?) (That statement/argument made by Joe is like circa 2007-08 when Fast Money panelists constantly said to buy fertilizer stocks because "people gotta eat.") Joe said PANW, long one of his favorite names to talk about, hasn't recovered from the "spending fatigue" it talked about in February.

Meanwhile, Jim Lebenthal, who wasn't on the official panel of the day, joined remotely to talk about ONON. Jim said ONON missed the quarter "by a little bit," which hurt the stock premarket, but Jim said the full-year outlook must've turned the stock around on Tuesday. Jim said ONON's technology is "spectacular."

Kevin Simpson joined remotely to talk about trimming MCD (Zzzzzzz). Kevin suggested the price to sales (Zzzzzzzzz) is a little high based on historical trends.

Rob Sechan beamed in to talk about HD (Zzzzzzzzzzz).

Joe sold MCK (Zzzzzzzz); he said he was in June 5 at 576, and he sold Thursday at 568.

"You don't allow a winning position to become a losing position," Joe said, though it sounds like that's exactly what happened given that it was 630 this month.

Joe said he thinks he needs to go back into the "old reliable" XLG.

From that discussion, Judge launched in to B of A's fund manager survey (Zzzzzzzz) that found sentiment at a 7-month low and a buncha money moving into fixed income, to the point Judge is seeing headlines about 60/40 (Zzzzzz) being "back."

Rob said he's sticking with LLY despite being up "200%" since he initially bought. (Uh oh, can't sell it, 'cause they'll have to pay taxes.) Joe said he's staying with NFLX despite the fact it "stalled out" at $700, which was "discouraging" to him. Joe mentioned those Christmas Day NFL games (he didn't mention that one of them is Kansas City-Pittsburgh). (This writer is long NFLX.)

Jim says Tom Lee could’ve walked down (ridiculous) Russell prediction, but ‘Good for him’

Judge on Monday (8/12) on Closing Bell was referring to last week as a "panic attack" at every opportunity. Judge also referred to Tom Lee's still-50%-by-year-end call on the Russell, which also came up during Monday's Halftime Report when Judge replayed the clip from last week.

Jim Lebenthal and Kari Firestone both saw the Lee interview; Jim said Monday, "I think 20% is reasonable" and added, "I thought he had a chance to walk it back to like 35%. He didn't take the opening. OK, good for him."

Whatever the Russell ends up doing (20% from here to December, that's a robust gain), Kari said rate cuts are more important for shoring up the economy than giving Russell companies cheaper financing.

Jim said he thinks retail sales matters more than the other upcoming data. Jim said we could get a "false signal" from July's weather "that then gets reversed next month."

Santoli described the market as "kind of adrift in no-man's land."

Savita hasn't been on Halftime in ages, but on Squawk Box earlier Monday said, "I think the idea that we're gonna see a real hard landing unless the Fed cuts excessively is not necessarily the story." Savita added, "I really like large cap value stocks here."

Phil Blancato on Monday's Fast Money said he's "probably the only guy on the Street" who thinks the Fed won't cut in September. (It's a fine bold call, but honestly, at least one person makes an against-the-95-100%-consensus-Fed call pretty much before every meeting ... and we're not sure we've ever seen 1 of them pan out.)

‘Rather AI than the metaverse’
(a/k/a Chapek is on the board of Masimo; other than that, we’re not sure)

Sarat Sethi on Monday's (8/12) Halftime Report explained what he sees as the issue with META.

"I think the negative bar on it Scott is because we don't know when Zuckerberg comes out and says 'I'm going to do something else.'"

Judge and Kari Firestone asked "what's the something else?" Sarat said he owns it because it's "cheap," and it's cheap because of that spending risk.

"I would rather they do AI than the metaverse," Sarat said.

Sarat bought WDAY. Bryn Talkington stated, "When Sarat buys something, I think it's always, like interesting." Bryn said you have to "pick your spots" in software.

Bryn shrugged off iPhone updates as "incremental."

Bill Baruch beamed in remotely to talk about buying more NVDA. (This writer is long NVDA.) "We did trim Nvidia back at 130," Bill stated, but he had started "buying back" around 115. He mentioned the "c" word regarding last week's trade — "capitulation" — and said that last week around $100, "I had to buy some more."

Bill also bought more ORCL. Bryn said she thinks NVDA got "washed out" last week, but she's got a "nice position" in the stock already, so "I don't need to add here."

Jim Lebenthal trimmed PARA and bought more DIS (snicker). Judge said buying DIS isn't "all that intriguing," but Judge was interested in the PARA trimming.

Jim said "the ultimate problem" with PARA is that "analysis doesn't matter here" because of a pending deal decided by 1 person. Jim said it's a "low probability" that the stock gets another bidder, but he doesn't want to unload it all just on the off chance the stock jumps 10-15%. Jim said "I like what they're doing" at DIS. (And who's going to be the latest successor again?) (2nd Iger tenure looking a lot like Joe Gibbs'.)

At the end of the show, Judge brought up ALB as "the worst performer" in the S&P on Monday. Bryn agreed it's a "stinker" and said earnings expectations were 46 cents, "and they came in at 4." Bryn said it was a "terrible performer" last year too and may be a "tax loss, uh, sale for us."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman offered, "If I were a real speculator at some point in here, I would probably buy some JetBlue calls."

Adam Parker basically confirms nobody was talking about yen carry until after it happened, despite claims by Joe and Bill

On a special episode Friday (8/9) of Taking Stock, which took place during Cramer's hour and which Judge had touted for days, Adam Parker offered some insight into people's awareness of the yen carry trade.

"I did this, um, risk dinner with 10 folks on the buy side in the middle of this week. And zero people said that they, uh, you know, had anything about the Japanese carry trade as a risk until they heard about it ex post."

Adam further added, "I searched every earnings call transcript for every mention of the yen, and there really weren't many."

That's interesting, because on the Halftime Report on Monday (8/5), Joe Terranova called the day's trading "a liquidation of the carry trade" and claimed, "It's something that I've been talking about over the last several weeks." Also on that same show, Bill Baruch stated, "I've been on the show a couple times during the past month or 2 saying that my fear of black swans would be a Japanese yen move."

Elsewhere on Taking Stock, which was hosted by Santoli and sort of co-hosted by Josh Brown, in the category of "Producer Should've Figured Out Beforehand Whether These Whiteboards Would Show Up On Camera," Josh rated the importance of the yen carry trade going forward as a 3. Santoli apparently held up "5/8," but it wasn't readable.

Josh though opined that news of the Buffett sale of AAPL was "the story that broke the Nasdaq's back" and had an "outsized impact" on Monday.

Tom Lee thinks small caps could still end up 50% this year

Tom Lee, star guest of Judge's Closing Bell on Friday (8/9), mentioned the VIX futures curve inverting early this week and said as it "uninverts," it "tells us the worst of the panic is behind us," though there could be "ripple effects."

Lee said, "I wouldn't be a seller of any of these megacaps here."

Judge reminded Tom that Tom made a call "months ago" with Judge that small caps could be up 50% (snicker) this year and whether Tom wanted a "mulligan" on that.

Tom said he's still "very constructive on small caps" and that "the upside is at least 50%." He said the call 'works" when the market believes rate cuts are "imminent." He added, "I still think 50% could happen before year-end."

"Wow. Wow," Judge said.

Judge asked Bryn Talkington to opine on Tom's call. Bryn said the jury's out as to whether the economy is only "slowing," or "stalling."

Jim says he’s ‘gonna speak for all 4 of us’

Steve Weiss wasted little time on Friday's (8/9) Halftime Report in expressing skepticism about the stock market.

"I actually, uh, am troubled by the quick recovery, because I think you needed that dose of reality," Weiss said.

"I don't think we're out of the woods yet. Next week is going to be a very challenging (snicker) week," Weiss said, citing PPI, CPI and "industrial production" (snicker) and "retail sales" (snicker).

Weiss grumbled, "Yesterday, it was like Monday didn't happen."

Judge said Tom Lee says "The worst is over." Kevin Simpson said, "I hope he's right."

Judge said it's a "remarkable story" that the S&P for the week is down half of 1%.

Jim Lebenthal insisted there was "hysteria the whole weekend" just days ago during the glorified Flash Crash, then Jim made a statement on behalf of the group: "All 4 of us — I'm gonna speak for all 4 of us — we knew that was hysterical," Jim said.

Judge protested, "Hey I don't think at the- at, at the ugliest part of Monday morning anybody knew anything" (even though Judge later Friday told Tom Lee, "I don't know that Monday rose to the level of an emergency situation").

Jim said "I apologize" for speaking for all 4 people at Post 9, but that, when one of Jim's strategists tapped him on the shoulder on Monday at 8:30 a.m. and noted the VIX was at 65, Jim's response was, "Are you kidding me???"

But as far as smooth sailing, Jim said, "Of course we're not done. Of course. That's not how these things go," apparently knowing of a sample size of more than 1 for what's happened this week. "Maybe Tom Lee is right. Love him, hope he's right. The odds are, he's not right that the worst is over," Jim added.

Jim: Shari ‘not thinking rationally’

Steve Weiss on Friday's (8/9) Halftime Report said even the "ultra-pricey consumer" is seeing weakness, cherry-picking names he wants to highlight while he shrugged off demand for SHAK as a result of "a unique brand."

Weiss again tried making his rate-hike-lag-effect argument, an argument he's been making for more than a year, saying no one expected the rate-hiking cycle "not to have had an impact" but admitting that "people (himself) have- they've been wrong on the timing," but "they haven't been wrong on the result. The result is still coming."

Kevin Simpson said he bought AAPL on Monday; he said META is a "candidate" for his shop to buy, "but it's going up so much that we can't seem to get an entry point here."

Weiss allowed, "I do think the megacaps are cheap if you're looking out a year or 2." His CNBC disclosures indicate he's long AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT, NFLX, NVDA and TSM (otherwise kinda known as the QQQ). (This writer is long GOOGL, NFLX, NVDA.)

Jim Lebenthal said that for semis in 3-12 months, "these stocks are likely to be a lot higher because of the growth rate for chips." Jim said NVDA is "on sale" with a PEG ratio below 1.

Weiss said he added to TSM and NFLX.

Kevin Simpson said MPC has "a long way to go to the upside." Kevin said if CSCO sells off, he'll buy more.

Late in the show, Jim said of PARA, "There's this SkyDance deal that's gonna go through, and frankly the only word I can use to describe that deal is 'cockamamie.'" Jim then talked up free cash flow and other positive trends but said that's overshadowed by the deal. Jim admitted making "mistakes" with the stock, and, referring to Shari Redstone, revealed, "My biggest mistake was getting in with a controlling shareholder who is not thinking rationally."

Karen: ‘Not that much has changed in the last week’

We had hoped that CNBC's Halftime and/or Fast Money on Thursday (8/8) would take up Julie Biel's very intriguing comment of a day earlier (see below).

They didn't; OK, whatever.

On Halftime, Josh Brown again played down the recent volatility, stating, "Historically, this is what happens at the start of a cutting cycle," and Josh asserted again that the market action "has been normal."

Judge told Jason Snipe that "there was a fairly, uh, sizable panic attack" on Monday. Judge said the Nasdaq during the Monday lows was down "more than 6%," while at Thursday lunchtime, it was only down "1.25%" for the week.

A couple hours later, Judge opened Closing Bell asking his panel if Monday was "one of those panic attacks." Liz Young Thomas agreed it was a "panic attack," but "I don't think it's over; I think this yen thing will resurface (snicker) again (sic redundant)."

Also on Closing Bell, Steve Liesman delivered a news alert on "cool as a cucumber" Barkin's comments on the economy and inflation. Judge said "It sounds a little offsides" from what Powell said last week.

Judge touted Santoli hosting "Taking Stock" on Friday night (in Cramer's slot), which apparently will include Josh Brown.

Karen Finerman on Thursday's Fast Money observed that the yen-carry unwind was "already happening" at the time of last week's employment data and therefore was "exacerbating" the response. As a result, "I feel like really not that much has changed in the last week," Karen said.

Josh says INTC should go private

Thursday's (8/8) Halftime didn't contain many groundbreaking pronouncements about the financial markets, but it was impressively chock-ful of a lot of vigorous stock commentary.

Stephanie Link bought CRWD. Her first rationale was, like CNBCers always say, "The stock is down 41% from its highs." Josh Brown made an interesting point, stating, "Some of the biggest winners over the last 10 years have had massive issues," such as when "people were crying on TV" (snicker) about META a year and a half ago.

We thought about that for a moment. First of all, we don't think spending concerns about META, or the endless META whistleblower spree, is the same as what happened to CRWD. TSLA certainly has had "issues" that could be considered as "massive" as what CRWD is dealing with, but those have been related to management decisions, not the performance of the cars. NFLX has been slammed a few times, but naming something "Qwikster" doesn't seem as devastating as grounding all kinds of flights.

Then there are BP and BA, which seem to have yet to recover from major accidents.

We can definitely see a reason for buying CRWD, but Brown may be a bit premature in his optimism.

(On the other hand, Karen Finerman on Fast Money questioned the financial impact if CRWD actually paid the entire amount of damages that DAL is claiming and noted CRWD is down from 369 to 240, "so I think this, this too shall pass.")

Josh, Stephanie and Jason Snipe all own AMZN. Josh said, "I honestly don't understand why it's trading where it is. I think it's just misunderstood."

Josh said of INTC, "I honestly think it should be a private company. I think it should be an LBO, somebody should take it private, that way they don't have to report quarterly to Wall Street, and they can figure out their next business model, their next avenue of growth, in privacy." (We never understood how a company can better turn itself around without a stock ticker than with one, but whatever.)

Jason Snipe loaded up on more GS, a stock that gets touted on the program nearly every day. Jason also bought DHI.

Judge said ABNB's report was a "disaster." Jason sold MGM, citing "softness" in Vegas and Formula 1.

Bryn Talkington bought more PLTR, a stock that gets a disproportionate amount of attention on the show, although it was as Judge noted up about 16% for the week. Bryn said we'll look back on Monday as a "black swan event," and it traded down to 23 that day, and "I knew they were gonna crush earnings."

Bryn also bought more IBIT, saying she "took advantage" of it dipping to 28. Josh talked about MS giving its advisors the "green light" to buy this stuff. Bryn said MS won't be the "last" of the banks but "probably the first of the banks." Bryn closed out covered calls on NVDA and said with the huge call premiums in big tech names, they've been "wonderful names" for selling upside calls during sideways or down markets. (This writer is long NVDA.)

Judge noted no one on Thursday's panel owns LLY. Judge said PFE got an upgrade, but Josh Brown wasn't too interested in discussing it. "The Street does not trust the stock," Josh said. Jason called AZO a stock to "accumulate." Josh suggested HD would be "the type of stock" that Berkshire might start buying, although anyone buying stocks based on whether they think Buffett will buy it is probably adopting a low-percentage strategy.

Judge said UAA was having its best day since 2018. Jason Snipe's Final Trade was QCOM; he said the stock is "30% off their June high."

Guy Adami on Fast Money said he doesn't see any upside for PARA beyond "12 bucks or so." Steve Grasso said "you can't get excited about any name in the space, even Netflix." (This writer is long NFLX.) Karen Finerman pointed out Netflix is "years ahead" of rivals in being cash flow positive, so it's the "Eli Lilly" of the space.

Julie Biel out-funnies Sully with most intriguing quip heard on CNBC this year

On Wednesday's (8/7) Fast Money, which was guest-hosted again by Sully, Julie Biel said "a lot of us are still trying to figure out what are the drivers" of this market; then Julie really got people's attention wondering, "Is it interest rates, is Mercury in retrograde, you know, is it the PMI that's saggier than I am when I'm wearing a bathing suit. Like, I don't know."

Guy Adami said, "I would push back on that Julie, but, you know, who am I to say."

This page would just add ... hopefully it's OK to comment on this subject #uhoh #hey,wedidn'tbringitup ... Julie should have no concerns about this topic.

Santoli gives away famous book/movie plot

Bringing up his favorite head of hedge fund coverage, Tony Pasquariello (who appears occasionally on Closing Bell but never Halftime), Judge on Wednesday's (8/7) Halftime Report said Tony "literally just dropped a new note" and used "all caps" to say the jobs report was NOT a new trend; Judge said Tony called what happened over the weekend a "global margin call."

Kari Firestone said she returned to work Monday from vacation and thought "oh my God, what a day to start," but "Monday didn't turn out to be so bad."

Waffling like l'eggo my egg'o, Jim Lebenthal said there are "2 things that can be true," which is that this could be a "very good buying opportunity," but also that the next couple weeks are "likely to be volatile." (So Jim's right either way.)

"It's also likely that we haven't seen the highs in the market for this year," Jim asserted.

Jim dubbed the weekend action "hysterical."

Judge noted how the multiples of all kinds of Megacap Tech names have slid in just recent days. "These stocks have come down a lot," Judge said. Jim said multiples have to be viewed with other factors, such as PEG ratio. Joe Terranova said the semis have worked off "excessive" positioning and still have strong fundamantals and buyback authorizations.

The JOET just bought SMCI (gulp). Joe said it had "remarkably powerful momentum" in Q1, but it had a "significant misstep" in fundamentals with a margin miss. Joe said the ETF is equal-weighted, so that "buffers" some of the pain from the drop.

Judge also noted Joe's ETF "recently got out of Shopify in the rebalance" (oops). Joe stated, "I see what Shopify's doing today. I'm totally fine with that." Joe boasted that he's got AMZN and MELI in ecommerce.

Steve Weiss dialed in to say he bought more GS. (However, Judge didn't bother to ask Weiss about why MRNA was regarded as a buy in the 300s and 400s.)

Describing this week's market for the Midday Word, Santoli said it's "on the surface, encouraging in the sense that you don't see this headlong liquidation rush."

Santoli said it's "legitimate" to say, "We probably overreacted to 1 jobs report."

He added, "I always say, whenever you have one of these market accidents, uh, it's- it's 'Murder on the Orient Express.' Everybody on the train did it ... not to spoil a 90-year-old novel."

Judge hasn’t said whether he caught the Marisol exhibition yet in Buffalo

Jim Lebenthal and Judge agreed on Wednesday's (8/7) Halftime Report that DIS was down on park weakness. It was no surprise at all that Jim hailed the streaming update (rather than, for example, wondering why they don't shut the division down and just license the stuff to NFLX and make gobs of money without the massive spending), stating he's "pleasantly" surprised that the division's profitability came a quarter faster than he expected.

Jim said he's not making a "huge retail bet," but he's in CASY and ONON.

Joe Terranova said he's not sure he agrees with the Wells Fargo call on CMG as the "top rate cut play."

Judge said Bernstein has put a 95 on UBER as a "top pick." (This writer recently was long UBER but has no position.) Judge asked Joe if the stock is "back." Joe said he wouldn't say it "went away," a curious description given that it cratered twice recently after reaching the mid-70s. Judge said it had a "big pullback." Joe said he'd say "yes," it's back.

Joe said, "The pressure is on Eli Lilly for this report."

Joe said AXON, at a record high, is "a little bit rich on valuation." The JOET bought it last week. Joe said "price action wasn't exactly exciting" in ANET off the earnings report.

Jim's Final Trade was AMZN: "If I liked this a few weeks ago at 195, you know I love it at 165."

Karen’s Called Shot: Finerman nails Monday-Tuesday market (but wavers on following her own blueprint)

Tuesday's (8/6) stock market action fulfilled a sensational forecast made by Fast Money's Karen Finerman on Friday.

On 8/2, Karen predicted, "Monday, we probably sell off again, and then I would look to be buying things on Tuesday."

On the surface, this is an extraordinarily prescient call and a contender for Call of the Year. In terms of finesse and nuance, it seems like it's maybe a half-day behind, as, based on charts we saw, Monday morning might've been the worst of the selloff and thus the time to buy.

Even so, Karen correctly predicted a major uptick. Yet on Tuesday's Fast, she surprisingly was not satisfied with her own accuracy. (She was not on Monday's show.)

First, Grandpa Guy Adami on Tuesday offered, "I don't believe we're out of the woods," before explaining that bulls would've preferred to see on Tuesday the big flush early, then the rally late.

Guest host Sully asked Karen what changed from Monday to Tuesday. "I think that it was just overdone yesterday," Karen said, agreeing with Guy that she'd "much rather" have seen the market down 500 points Tuesday, "and then end up 300."

Karen revealed, despite her statement Friday, "I bought nothing today."

Judge, Josh haggle for minutes over whether Monday’s market was ‘run of the mill’

Judge opened Tuesday's (8/6) Halftime Report explaining that the stock market "had one giant economic panic attack yesterday."

Judge said Barry Bannister says it's "too soon" to buy, while David Kostin says people "typically" profit from buying 5% selloffs. Joe Terranova said "without question" he agrees with Kostin; "this feels to me like August of 2015." But he said the next 30 days will be a "volatile environment," and we could retest Monday's S&P low at 5,119 (at which point, some of us would be backing up the truck).

Josh Brown said he doesn't see an "urgency" to be putting on trading positions, unless you're doing trading "by the hour." Even so, Josh said it's "baseline obvious stuff" that "you don't sell a 60 VIX; you buy a 60 VIX." (That's true, except at times when Congress is negotiating a TARP package.)

Josh then really got Judge's attention by stating that what happened over the last few days is "extremely normal," even though "people who have been sitting in cash for 10 years" made a "concerted effort" to "tweet things out in all caps (snicker)."

But Judge cut in, "I don't think yesterday was run of the mill anything."

"I think it was," Josh said.

"Do we generally have pullbacks the magnitude of what we did yesterday? Is that normal?" Judge said.

Josh said it was "2½ percent." Judge questioned if that was at "the lows." Josh said, "That was what the day ended up being." Judge said, "That doesn't matter ... it's how badly stocks sold off to start the day."

Josh mocked a "Mackintosh" column in the WSJ comparing Monday to 2008. (The headline actually referred to 1987.) (But no one said 1937 this time.) Judge protested, "I didn't say it was reminiscent of anything."

Judge tried to tell Josh that we just went from the Fed chief talking about "normalization" of the labor market on Wednesday, "to a full-blown panic after the release of the jobs report that we were going into recession. ... To Friday and then Monday, we're panicked about a recession. Did we over, did we overdo it?"

"The Fed chair said that?" Josh blurted.

"Said what," Judge said.

"We're panicked about a recession?"

"No he didn't say that. He didn't- he didn't say that. He didn't say that. If you were sitting here, it'd be easier to have this conversation ... That's not what I said," Judge insisted.

Joe seeemed to think a lot was accomplished Monday. "There's a lot of speculation in the market," and we "worked off a lot of that leverage yesterday" and came out "relatively unscathed," Joe said.

Joe added, "You can make a strong argument that hedge funds and speculators and institutions are going to be somewhat adverse (sic meant 'averse') to stepping back into the market and taking risk," which might keep a "sideways range" into the fall, but Monday is "probably not too far away from the worst moment we're gonna see in the next couple of months."

Flash: Typical UBER customers are ‘affluent’

On Monday, Judge thanked all his Halftime panelists for showing up (as if they couldn't go an entire hour without fielding calls from clients); on Tuesday (8/6), somehow, even people who weren't panelists on the show had time to call in and trumpet trades.

Kevin Simpson was one of those people, mocking "everyone else" who was "asking for the Fed to come out and do an emergency rate cut," while he was looking for "opportunities," and one was buying AAPL around 200. Kevin also bought AXP.

Rob Sechan bought NVDA and joined remotely to explain why. (This writer also bought and is long NVDA.) Rob said ORLY was trading at a high P.E. (snicker), and he used that cash for NVDA to capitalize on a "recent valuation reset." But he only took a "half" position because there's risk "in the short run." (Yep, hopefully people will be giving it away in the low 90s again soon.)

Jenny Harrington said the "rotation" in the stock market has actually been "not caring about valuation (snicker) into caring about valuation (snicker)." (Translation: Don't buy Megacap Tech, buy these irrelevant low-P.E.-ratio stocks that no one cares about.)

Josh Brown said he cashed in on GLW on Friday while he "still had a gain," and he added to AMZN.

After the A Block, Josh got to introduce the UBER quarter. (This writer is long UBER.) Josh said it was "one of their best quarters ever," and even with the gain, it's still "way off the highs," always one of the favorite categories of CNBCers. "I'm as bullish as I ever was," Brown affirmed.

Joe Terranova said it's important that Dara mentioned that the Uber customer is an "affluent consumer," as if people had previously thought that it's typically poor people who take $250 car rides home from JFK (see a few months below).

Joe predicted PLTR, one of those stocks that we've never figured out why people on this program talk about so much, "takes out $30 easily."

Judge said CRWD got an upgrade to a buy from Piper Sandler, but with a 290 target, down from 310. Josh said his outlook (staying long) hasn't changed; he said we're not "fully certain" about the financial impact of the recent outage.

Joe said he's been "skeptical" of RCL for "many months," but it's in the JOET for "quite some time," so "the strategy knows better than I do."

Joe again talked up CDNS.

Guest host Sully, CNBC's Funniest Anchor who cracked up the Fast Money gang like they hadn't giggled in decades, said DIS is raising streaming prices. Karen Finerman said price hikes and ad tiers have worked for NFLX, so that's why it "absolutely makes sense" that DIS was up Tuesday.

Guy Adami said the only Guns 'N Roses song on his Spotify playlist is "November Rain."

Suddenly, multiple people are claiming they were warning about the yen trade

On these kinds of days, you better bring your tennis shoes, and Judge did, to Post 9. (Well, OK, they're "sneakers"; we're not sure if they qualify as "tennis shoes.")

Joe Terranova started off Monday's (8/5) Halftime Report claiming he's been talking about this for weeks.

"I truly believe what we have witnessed in the last 24 hours is a liquidation. It's a liquidation of the carry trade. It's something that I've been talking about over the last several weeks," Joe said, explaining, "The long leg of the trade is long Nasdaq, tech companies, AI and halo-adjacent companies ... it needed the technology names to continue to price higher ... and it didn't get it."

And the yen rallied "12% in a quarter, and everyone's short the yen."

Joe said the VIX shot to 65 at 8:30 in the morning, reaching March 2020 levels.

Later in the show, Bill Baruch dialed in; he said he scooped up some META and AVGO. Bill also claimed, "I've been on the show a couple times during the past month or 2 saying that my fear of black swans would be a Japanese yen move and- to the degree that it has. Even though I forecasted, it's tough to time, it's tough to manage."

Well, hmmm ... we can't prove that Joe and Bill have not been talking about the yen multiple times in the last month or 2, as this page does not run a complete transcript of the CNBC Halftime Report program can you imagine actually doing that?.

But when we scroll down through archives on this page, we don't see the word "yen" anywhere, until Friday 8/2, when Rob Sechan brought it up.

So the notion that Joe's been warning about the unwind of the yen carry trade for "several weeks"? Um, NOT.

Judge: Data could be signaling that Fed has made ‘one of the biggest blunders in the history of central banking’ (Um ... how could they possibly throw 50 flags on 1 play?)

Steve Liesman on Monday's (8/5) Halftime Report praised the "great discussion" and singled out Joe Terranova's commentary (above) about the yen carry trade.

Steve pointed to the 2-year yield rising and the ISM service index and comments from Goolsbee to help convince the market that things aren't "careening out of control towards a recession." Also, "You're not seeing a blowout in high yield."

In one of his most stark pronouncements ever, Judge said Jerome Powell used the term "normalization" on Wednesday, and, "It would be one of the biggest blunders in the history of central banking if the Fed chair on a Wednesday says, 'Look, things are good, they are where we want them to be, this is just a normalization in the labor market,' and then by Friday, not 2 days later, less than 48 hours, that a jobs report would signal that they are so offsides that- I mean you're gonna throw 50 flags, um, that they are so clueless as to what the current condition of everything is."

"That's a great observation, Scott," Steve said, adding, "I thought they should've gone in- in July."

Weiss didn’t mention how MRNA is doing, a stock he trumpeted in the 300s and 400s

Halftime Report traders on Monday (8/5) didn't really seem fazed by the stock market cratering.

"My clients are calling in looking to buy stocks," Josh Brown said.

Jim Lebenthal said he's feeling "serene calm," even though that may sound "blasé or casual."

Shannon Saccocia suggested that an "intermeeting" cut would "stoke the flames that we do have more of a recessionary concern than I think is really justified."

Steve Weiss explained that he came into Monday short QQQ, VOO and the IWM, "and I covered those, pretty early, I'd say about 7:30 or so," because the market seemed "so emotional," which is "generally an opportunity." He apparently made a quick buy and flip of META. Weiss cautioned, "This is not for everybody," stating "I've been in business for 35 years" and he's not buying anything that would really sink his portfolio if he's "completely wrong."

Weiss said this is "just a confluence of events all coming together." Weiss said he's been saying of the economy for a "long time" that the yen was going to upend financial markets "we're on borrowed time." (Translation: The "lag effect" trade from the rate hikes that Weiss was still adhering to well into 2023 might still be happening (even though it's probably not).)

Judge read a tweet from Steve Eisman saying "I just don't see a recession." Grandpa Weiss said the consumer isn't that great and that Eisman is "not an economist."

An emergency rate cut would be one thing. Imagine if they needed this Congress to pass an emergency TARP package.

The JOET bought JPM, viewers learned on Monday's (8/5) Halftime Report. Joe Terranova stressed that in the financial component of the JOET, "overwhelmingly this is about insurance companies and financial services."

Jim Lebenthal said he's not in the recession camp, so he's not selling bank stocks.

It's not often that we turn to ETF Edge for Halftime topics. On Monday, Bob Pisani had Jerome Schneider from Pimco as a guest. Schneider said, "Investors need to get- cash out of cash, move out of money market funds." He added, "The time is now to move out of cash."

Judge asked Steve Weiss about that advice. Weiss said, "Assuming he didn't mean right now, today, I think he's right," because TINA is "coming back."

Jim said "ballast" about 4 times and stated, "This is a good time if you're looking for ballast to buy bonds."

Judge asked Josh Brown about Buffett's AAPL move. Josh was "surprised" because cutting a position in half is kind of rare for Buffett, and this is a big stake for Berkshire. Josh said it's "not true" as media have reported that Buffett's percentage of cash "is some incredible amount relative to, uh, what it has been historically." Josh said it was higher in Q2 2020. Josh pointed out that AAPL's multiple was a lot lower when Berkshire started buying.

Without clarifying which month, Judge said UBER reports Tuesday, and "Stock's down near 20% in a month." (This writer is long UBER.) Weiss again told how he sold it recently out of concerns about the consumer (the lag effect from all those hikes).

Judge concluded the show giving credit to panelists simply for showing up. "I appreciate everybody being here. Uh, I know your phones are ringin' off the hook from clients, et cetera," Judge said.

Karen: More selloff on Monday, then start buying Tuesday

On Friday's (8/2) Fast Money, Karen Finerman predicted, "Monday, we probably sell off again, and then I would look to be buying things on Tuesday."

Karen suggested that "one data point of better employment" would prompt the market to "calm down."

On the Halftime Report, forecasts weren't that specific, but opinions were similar.

Guest host Sully, CNBC's Funniest Anchor, opened the show saying Judge "picked a good day to be off."

Sully asked Jim Lebenthal if Friday's action was an "overreaction," and Jim said "yes."

"The bond market is really what I think is driving this," offered Rob Sechan.

"The most crowded trade on the planet was short yen, long tech. Period," Rob said, asserting it's "rapidly unwinding."

"I definitely think we have a jittery market," said Bryn Talkington, citing raised chances for a 50-point cut in September.

Jason Snipe said we're in more of a "normalization" than an "obliterate slowdown." He said "we've been top-heavy all year" in the AI trade.

Rob pronounced the consumer "completely bifurcated."

Sully said he went to a boat/RV dealership in Wisconsin last week, and they said, "We haven't sold anything in months."

Jim at one point said he thinks this is just a "normal summer correction."

Bill botches the INTC trade

Guest host Sully on Friday's (8/2) Halftime Report said INTC was having its worst day since 1974.

Bill Baruch dialed in to say he bought it at 33 (snicker) "a few weeks back" and it was the "smallest position in the portfolio," and he sold it on Friday.

Bill referred to the conference call by "Gessinger" (sic) that Bill said was just a "monotone" with a "lack of enthusiasm" and just a "disaster."

Sully said Pat Gelsinger made "over a hundred million dollars in compensation in the last couple years," though "I don't have anything against him." Sully later clarified "a lot of that compensation is tied to stock performance," so he doesn't know what Gelsinger will actually end up with.

Jim Lebenthal said in Gelsinger's defense, "he made a choice" to get into the foundry business, "I compliment him on that," but it's a "failed strategy." Jim said that in the foundry business, "You're in competition with your own customers." But he said Gelsinger "didn't have much options."

Mario Gabelli, when he used to make appearances on the show, talked up GPC all the time

Apparently a little chippy about Mike Mayo's underweight call on MS, Jim Lebenthal on Friday's (8/2) Halftime Report stressed that there's nothing "wrong" with MS.

Jim said he thinks Mike could've taken the call to a "neutral," but "he doesn't pull any punches."

Guest host Sully questioned why we call MS a "bank," when it's a "different type of company." Rob Sechan said most financials are above their 50-day and remain in an uptrend.

Sully trumpeted Leslie Picker's interview next week with Jamie Dimon in Kansas City, saying it was Monday, saying "cue promo graphic," then noting once the graphic appeared that it's actually Wednesday. "I got the guy right, and the host right, but the day wrong," Sully explained.

Meanwhile, Jim said he'd be buying AMZN if he didn't already have a large position.

Sully said his wife will say "straight up" that "Amazon is killin' CVS, Walgreens, Rite-Aid, Duane Reade and others."

Jim sold GPC (Zzzzzzzzzzz); Sully incorrectly claimed it "might be a first reference to Genuine Parts on Halftime, ever." Jim said he wanted to buy ONON instead. "They're really up and coming," Jim explained.

Rob said "there's a whole host of reasons" why people will keep their cars for a long time before getting another one.

Bryn Talkington, who had a quiet show (there was no discussion of TSLA), said she bought more FCX at 45 and sold the January 50 calls for $3. Jim praised the trade and said the metals space has been "pulverized," so it's a good time to buy.

Jim talked up XOM and once again argued that nat gas prices will rebound.

Bob Pisani talked about the "significant rerating" in tech multiples, citing NVDA in the past month.

Dan Nathan notes interesting parallel to 2023

Judge opened Thursday's (8/1) Halftime Report saying Thursday's market seemed to be having an "econo-fear selloff."

Judge had a couple of botches, saying Jeffrey Gundlach indicated a day ago that "he thinks they'll go 150 basis points this year," when actually Jeffrey said "certainly by a year from now" (see below).

Judge also referred to the released WSJ reporter as "Evan Gersowich (sic)."

Meanwhile, Josh Brown said the market is back to, "Bad news is bad news."

Josh said the data suggests the "reality" that the Fed should already be cutting.

Liz Young Thomas suggested "things are getting too cool, too quickly."

Stephanie Link said the market is struggling with "Powell not being consistent with what he's been telling us, and, and the whole committee."

Bill Baruch said he added to stocks on "strength" on Wednesday (#badtiming), so Thursday's action is "concerning." Bill said Wednesday's gains in Big Tech had not quite "dissipated" yet on Thursday.

Bill bought AVGO a day earlier, in the morning ahead of the Fed. "It's a very tactical play," Bill said, though he's "not happy" with Thursday's action.

Josh said that in NVDA, "the volatility here is insane. This is a casino," a point echoed on Fast Money by Dan Nathan. Josh said not to be fazed by the "noise trading" in the stock.

It wasn't mentioned on the show, but MRNA, which used to be touted by Weiss even when it was in the 400s, was taking a plunge Thursday.

Josh once again touted the new CEO of SHAK amid the stock's huge day Thursday. Josh joked again that he's not only a shareholder but "client."

On Fast Money, Dan Nathan pointed out that the stock market in 2023 peaked around July 18, slid into October, then started rallying again, and this year, the high is July 16.

Questions must be too predictable if Jay is using a ‘script’ to answer

Jeffrey Gundlach, the star guest of Wednesday's (7/31) Closing Bell (as he generally is on Fed Day), said he expects deeper rate cuts than the market is probably expecting.

"I think we have a hundred and 50 basis points of cuts coming ... certainly by a year from now," Jeffrey said, adding that a couple years from now, "I kind of believe that we will say that we were in a recession in September of 2024."

Jeffrey said the word he kept hearing during the Fed chief's remarks was "could." Jeffrey compared inflation pre-pandemic vs. now and stated, "There's a lot of room for them to cut short-term interest rates." Jeffrey thinks the market should "enjoy" what the Fed said on Wednesday, which is the opportunity to cut "a lot" if needed.

Gundlach opined, "I think they should've cut today, quite frankly," but he doesn't think cutting now vs. in September would make a big difference. He said the argument that a September cut of 25 basis points would affect presidential politics is "so laughable."

Jeffrey said Jay Powell may have been "overprepared" for the press conference and seemed to be "reading" a lot of remarks and even using a "script" to answer some of the questions.

In a stark assessment of the economy, Jeffrey said "the bottom 40% of the population, they are really hurting on these price levels." He suggested people with the "wherewithal" can help by providing "free food."

Judge's last question was who Jeffrey is supporting in November. "I don't support anybody," Jeffrey said, though he allowed "the Electoral College looks pretty strong for Trump as of July 31st, 2024."

Jeffrey said he wants to take Judge to the Marisol exhibition at the Buffalo AKG Art Museum. "I'll see if they'll give me a couple days off. We'll discuss offline," Judge said.

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso complained to Steve Liesman about the Fed, "I think they're trying to be too cute here. They're trying to thread the needle too tight. What's the difference between September, with the same data (pronounced 'datta'), and right now." Steve said that Jay Powell said "several times" that they'll look at "the totality of the data (pronounced DAY-ta)."

Almost certainly, Judge has never heard of Marisol

It was a pre-Fed edition of the Halftime Report on Wednesday (7/31).

Joe Terranova, on a quarterly JOET rebalancing day, waffled on Judge's opening question about whether AMD's report saved the chip trade. Joe said AMD's report "validates" that the correction we've seen is "enough."

As far as the rotation, Joe credited Adam Parker's commentary on Closing Bell a day earlier; "as usual, he said something really smart," which is that the "more reliable earnings growth" is not in the "rotation part of the market" but the AI-tech part. Judge said Adam also said we could get a "sell on the news" of the first rate cut.

Steve Weiss said helping the tech trade and stocks, which were surging in the morning well before Powell spoke, is anticipation of Powell's potential comments on rate cuts, and also the MSFT report; Weiss bought more MSFT and META. "You wanna own this industrial revolution (snicker)," Weiss asserted.

Kevin Simpson shrugged that rate-cut prospects were lifting Wednesday's market, saying it's already been priced in.

Kevin bought HON and V. Joe gave so many stats about financial stocks and their earnings reports; eventually he referred to "Kravis, Kohlberg (sic order) and Roberts" and touted KKR. Joe called $600 "reasonable" for GS.

Joe reiterated that he's "concerned" about UBER making another trip to the low 60s. (This writer is long UBER.) Steve Weiss noted he sold UBER "a couple of weeks ago." He said it was mostly about perceived "weakness" in the consumer and said the California "ratification" of drivers as independent contractors didn't move the stock much. "I just don't see the travel coming back," Weiss said.

Kevin called the 9% drop in MRK an "overreaction" and said he'd buy more. Judge noted Joe selling MRK just days ago before the plunge. "Something about it didn't seem right to me," Joe said Wednesday. It was one of the better decisions — not sure we can call it a "call" — announced on the show this year, but probably not a Call of the Year contender.

Carl and Sara were back on Money Movers; in the transition, Carl impressively said, "Let's get to the Judge!"

Joe made a good decision on MRK

Judge on Tuesday's (7/30) Halftime Report noted another bad day for CRWD and asked Josh Brown what to do about the stock. (Thankfully, Judge didn't ask Joe to outline the difference between trading and investing.)

Josh conceded, "They're gonna have to spend money to make customers whole." Josh suggested that updated company guidance will perhaps be the "final shoe to drop."

Brian Belski said last time "we" were on, he was "widely panned" for talking about tech stocks "priced to perfection."

Josh noted that NVDA doesn't even report this week, but everyone else who is reporting will be talking about NVDA.

Steve Weiss, who had a quieter show than usual, said MSFT expectations are "not as euphoric" as a month ago, but there's some "fluff in the valuation."

Weiss said "hike" when he meant "cut." At least Judge flagged that one and Weiss acknowledged it.

Josh noted the recent small cap surge and how it was probably due, but Josh said "there is no story that makes sense as to why this should be like the start of a brand new trend."

Judge protested that maybe it's simply lower rates ahead. Josh said we've "already" gotten the benefit of that catalyst.

In an informative dialogue on MMM and, broader picture, how long to hang on to a good stock, Jenny Harrington sold MMM and tried to give a speech, which began with her shop's visionary outlook on the stock a while back. Josh still owns it. Josh said MMM is in a "complete reset for the first time in decades, and it's exciting (snicker)." Josh said he thinks Jenny is "leaving in like the 2nd inning." Jenny insisted that, given where the stock is now, "It doesn't make sense for the strategy (snicker)." Josh said whoever bought Jenny's shares will be "in line" for the opportunity he sees.

Judge pointed out that Joe Terranova a day ago mentioned unloading MRK. Brian Belski admitted he's not feeling good about the stock's move on Tuesday but said he bought it at $48. (That's like Joe's argument for why the CRWD slide doesn't hurt much.) Josh is staying in PFE (Zzzzzzzz).

Jenny said she thinks JBLU can get to $7, where it nearly was on Tuesday.

Weiss said there's an article saying AMZN is "undercutting" NFLX on ad pricing. (This writer is long NFLX.) But Weiss said AMZN doesn't have the content, and he still likes NFLX and advises being "patient." Brian likes NFLX too, calling it "the Kleenex of streaming."

Jenny rehashed her call a year ago on WHR and SWK that so set off Josh Brown (who was on Tuesday's show too). This time, Josh didn't respond to it.

Leslie and Sully have to work on their transition from Money Movers to Halftime; this week they haven't even mentioned Judge's name and on Tuesday Leslie only stated, "Halftime Report, uh, is starting now."

Sounds like Joe might be ‘trading’ UBER, but not CRWD

On Monday's (7/29) Halftime Report, For the 2nd time, Joe Terranova said he feels "very badly" for JOET holders in that they have a losing position in CRWD and don't have a 120 cost basis in the name like Joe's got in his personal account. (Note: Joe's implication that a 30% drop doesn't matter when you've already had a big gain makes ... no sense. But whatever.)

"If I was trading CrowdStrike, I would sell it, because that's the right thing to do," Joe explained to Judge.

Judge seemed floored that Joe would sell it "NOW???," noting Cramer "called the bottom today on SOTS (yes, Judge actually said 'SOTS')."

Joe insisted if he was just trading it, he'd sell it, "but I'm not trading these names." Judge wondered, "What does that mean though. ... 'If I was trading it, I'd sell it,' like if I bought it, when. What's the cutoff?" Joe explained that "Price when you're trading dictates everything" (snicker), and you "can't ignore" a 30% drop, and Joe is "trying to be an investor, not a trader."

Later in the show, apparently doing more "trading" than "investing," Joe said he's "more concerned this time around" about UBER's latest slide to the low 60s. (This writer is long UBER.) Joe's going to wait for the "absolutely critical" report next week to decide on what to do with his personal stake. (Judge didn't ask Joe whether this was a trade or an investment. But Jim says Judge always holds people accountable.) (See below.)

All that said, Bill Baruch's explanation for what to do with CRWD hasn't been terribly convincing either (see below).

Jim’s no longer worried, feels ‘great’

Joe Terranova opened Monday's (7/29) Halftime Report saying "This is a really critical week" (snicker) (at least he didn't call it a stock-picker's market) (actually someone else did that), acknowledging that sometimes, panelists are "criticized" for "hyperbole" in making that statement. (Yep.)

Joe said it's important because we'll learn whether the tech correction is "enough."

Jim "Recently Worried More Than He's Been In A Long Time" Lebenthal said that if he's right about the market digesting this week's reports, it'll be "clear sailing for a few weeks."

Jim mentioned when there was a "day of reckoning" a couple years ago. The most famous "day of reckoning" call was by Carl about 8 years ago (and the market actually went up, not down).

Jim actually told Judge, "You always give credit where credit's due, and you- you punish those who deserve to be punished." (Um, if we're talking about how well Judge polices the calls on his show, well ...)

"I lost my touch," Judge cracked.

Judge pointed out that a couple weeks ago, Jim was talking about being "more worried" (snicker) than he'd been in a long time. Now, "I feel great," Jim admitted.

Joe affirmed that he's "skeptical" that the "rotation" could carry the market if tech stumbles.

Joe said he sees more "troubling" signs than Jim does; Joe said late credit card payments are at their highest level since 2012, and we might hear at Jackson Hole that "it could be 50 basis points in September."

Joe said Jeffrey Gundlach was "spot-on" that "the real value" is in bonds.

Jim said there won't be anything "fatal" in the MSFT report and, "On a meaningful pullback, I would get in."

Judge botches infer/imply (but Mel basically botched inferring/imputing on Fast Money)

Joe Terranova on Monday's (7/29) Halftime Report asserted that "every portfolio" has to have some exposure to megacaps.

Judge said, "No one's gonna fight you on that," which is curious, because we'd guess that at least 1 or 2 of Judge's regular panelists surely would fight Joe on that.

Jim Lebenthal said RIG is benefiting, or going to benefit, from some "astronomical" (snicker) day rates.

Bill Baruch dialed in to say he added MARA and IBIT, citing "tailwinds politically." Bill said it wasn't about "the next 1 or 2%" but making a "commitment" (snicker) (where does "commitment" fit in with Joe's trading-vs.-investing).

Leslie Picker reported on some problem that Ackman's having launching a fund; Leslie said "I'm told the SEC needs more time to review the new information." Leslie said the initially floated $25 billion size is being downsized by Bill to $2½-$4 billion. Judge questioned if the "expected demand" is the problem and noted Bill apparently thinks his number of Twitter followers (snicker) would correlate to interest.

Judge told Stephanie Link, "I wish I was here" for the MMM pop.

Judge mistakenly asked Glen Kacher on Closing Bell if Glen was "inferring" when Judge meant "implying." Judge, apparently not realizing that only a few of his panelists are the ones talking up junky non-tech stocks that nobody else cares about, seemed surprised that Glen wasn't banking on a long-term rotation.

Bill waffles like L’eggo my egg’o on whether he wants to hold CRWD

As he does about every other day, Bill Baruch beamed in remotely to Friday's (7/26) Halftime Report with a trade update.

Guest host Frank Holland asked Bill if he regrets buying the dip in CRWD. Bill once again gave the spiel about how he was NOT buying it back at "320, 370, 380" (congrats; what does that mean) but admitted he's "not liking the continued price action" and it's "hanging by a thread" in his portfolios.

Bill said he sold PSX and likes oil services (Zzzzzzzz) (apparently that means he bought SLB, according to screen text and Frank Holland) and KMI. The conversation gave Jim Lebenthal a chance to talk about RIG.

Meanwhile, Jim said the market pullbacks during the week are "healthy" and the rally is "not over," in fact, it's "augmented (snicker) by the fact that it is clearly spreading to other areas of the market besides the Mag 7."

Sarat Sethi said, "I do like the broadening." But he said if PCE had been bad, the market would've sold off.

Brenda Vingiello said markets might see a bit of a "break."

Brenda, a TSLA long, said there are "positive trends" and "growth drivers" for the company, which isn't exactly the way Weiss tends to describe it. As a matter of fact, Brenda also opined on this stock a day earlier (see below). Neither opinion was exactly earth-shattering.

Santoli said Friday's trade was "a little bit of relief rally."

Meghan Shue, who used to be on Halftime and Friday was on Kelly Evans' The Exchange, noted, "About half of the Russell 2000 earns no profits."

On Friday's Fast Money, Karen Finerman, taking part in the show remotely and sounding like she was broadcasting from a cave, said she thinks the Fed "definitely" cuts in September and "50 is potentially in the cards," though she doubts it'll be 50 and allows that maybe there's a chance of a July cut. Karen also pronounced the reaction to Alphabet earnings "so overdone."

Bill suggests that Biden’s exit may cause the Fed to cut earlier

On Thursday's (7/25) Halftime Report, Josh Brown cautioned that "the No. 1 risk" to the markets this year is "sentiment around AI cooling off."

Josh said GOOGL got the market reaction it got because it said capex would be up 91% with revenue growing 12%. Josh said, "Ruth Porat also said they're gonna throw another $5 billion at Waymo. Nobody's excited about that either (pronounced EYE-ther)."

Bryn Talkington said she thinks spending will remain "intact" but that we'll continue to see "sell on the news" for Big Tech.

Josh said it's an "outlier" view, but he apparently thinks the Fed will cut in July "just to show that they're truly data-dependent" (pronounced DAY-ta). Bryn though said "the data (pronounced DAY-ta) tells you that there's no reason to hurry." Bryn said she'd guess "September" for a cut. (Guest host Frank Holland said "DAY-ta" also.) Bill Baruch actually said that Biden being out of the race gives a "tailwind to the reason for the Fed to cut."

Josh took a victory lap on NDAQ; he said it had a "textbook" set-up for a rally. He was talking about it as far back as March 12. It did go up a bit afterward, then pulled back, then started to surge this month. Not a Call of the Year contender, but a good call.

Brenda Vingiello said her shop owns TSLA "because of their first-mover advantage" in EVs. Bryn said she's been "really clear" for the last 3 months predicting a couple of "murky" quarters for TSLA; she "wasn't sure why" the stock ran from 175 to 240. (That is all exactly correct. Bryn has defended the stock repeatedly (a major plus) while doubting it would have great quarters this summer, but all the same, if none of those predictions appear to have any relevance to the stock price, then ...)

On Wednesday's Fast Money, Karen Finerman said we're still in the "early innings of AI" and that the stock charts won't always track "the productivity of AI," but the overall "trajectory" will be higher.

Joe refuses to have a ‘political conversation’ but insists on saying Weiss is wrong

Guest host Frank Holland on Wednesday's (7/24) Halftime Report asked Joe Terranova if the tech selloff is "overblown" and "much ado about nothing."

Joe said the market is in a "historically weak period." But Joe still has a "degree of skepticism" about the supposed rotation from big tech to small caps.

Jason Snipe is "not terribly concerned" about the Alphabet quarter.

But once Steve Weiss started talking, the conversation got around to politics.

Weiss said "polls are a dime a dozen," but he said "Harris has come out pretty strong in the polls."

Weiss again said that Vice President Kamala Harris is a "pure socialist," which "won't be good for the market."

But Weiss said Donald Trump "changes his position every day."

Joe cut in, "But that's not what's going on today."

"That's absolutely what is happening today," Weiss said, asking Joe, "Can you ever pinpoint exactly-"

"Steve I don't wanna get- I'm not getting into a political conversation, it's just wrong," Joe cut in.

"Don't chime in. It's not wrong," Weiss protested.

Moving on, Anastasia Amoroso said one analyst called Alphabet results "no excitement."

Jason Snipe predicted "more of the same" from the Fed in July.

A little later, Weiss said, "If people aren't considering where they're investing and putting capital with a view on whats's going to happen in the election, then they shouldn't be in this business. Period, end of story."

Bill does some great cheerleading for a stock he’s not actively buying

Bill Baruch dialed in to Wednesday's (7/24) Halftime Report to say "I am a believer" in TSLA, adding, "If you own this thing, you've gotta expect some volatility."

Bill said he thinks the stock price "turned a corner at the start of this month" and the earnings call is a "harbinger of things to come (sic last 4 words redundant)."

Guest host Frank Holland noted Bill trimmed his TSLA position "just a short time ago." Bill revealed, "I'm not buying more right now." Bill said he's concerned about TSLA dipping below 215-220 but "there's a lot of support here" around $200.

"You're sending some mixed messages here. You're a believer, but you're not buying more," Frank told Bill. "What are you so excited about ... If you're excited, why don't you wanna buy more right now on this dip?"

"Well, I don't think you need to react and buy more, uh, just because the stock is lower," Bill said, not exactly clarifying the situation.

Joe Terranova said he's not sure there's anything "overwhelmingly, uh, compelling" about TSLA's fundamentals.

Steve Weiss, whose short-lived TSLA short of months ago was one of the ghastliest calls of the year, insisted, "If you take the name Tesla off this company. And if you take Elon Musk, who is just a tremendous, you know, inventor/entrepreneur, you'd be short this stock." (Right. And if you took away the iPhone, you'd be short AAPL too.)

Weiss said he and Bryn Talkington "had a spirited debate at 150 (see archive below). She was a thousand percent right."

Josh says CRWD is ‘not gonna roll over’

On Tuesday's (7/23) Halftime Report, guest host Dom Chu promised a "Trade School" from Josh Brown on CRWD.

Josh said he's not sure anyone wants to hear his Trade School on this stock given what's happened, but Josh asserted, "This is not a trade. It's an investment." Josh said anyone trading the name would "have to sell" in this kind of situation, and those who have been trading it "already got out on Friday."

Josh pointed to CMG from 2015-2018 "contending with a wave of foon- (sic) food-borne illness issues" but rallying in the years that followed. Josh said "I've spoken with George Kurtz" and "They are not gonna roll over," so he's "sticking around" in CRWD.

Meanwhile, Josh painted a rosy picture for Alphabet, suggesting it's "off to the races" and calling it "one of the best monetization machines humankind has ever come up with." (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Kevin Simpson has been adding to TJX, a stock that people always seem to be buying.

Jenny Harrington said she bought UPS around 136.

On Fast Money, panelists took up TSLA and GOOGL among the earnings reports, and Tim Seymour said TSLA's valuation "makes no sense," and when in the history of the world has Tim Seymour's opinion on TSLA's valuation mattered?

Joe says he would sell his CRWD, but he won’t because it’s in the JOET

On Monday's (7/22) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova said he owns CRWD personally, and it's in the JOET. Joe said his own stake was up "120%" based on Monday, but prior to last week, he was up a lot more than that, "one of the better purchases that I've made in the last several years," which doesn't really do anybody any good on Monday.

Because CRWD is in the JOET, Joe feels "awful" that "someone like Steve" (Weiss) is exposed to the now-"negative position" of CRWD in the JOET from just the past week. Joe stated, "If it was not in the JOET ETF, I would move out of the position personally," which doesn't really make sense (especially when it comes to "risk management"), other than it sounds like Joe wants to assure any disgruntled JOET holders that "I feel your pain (in a bigger way)."

Joe invoked the CMG food scare of years ago or all the stuff BA has been dealing with in recent years and said we probably can't expect a "very fast recovery" for CRWD. Joe said he's surprised that PANW hasn't benefited from CRWD's woes. Weiss pointed out that BA's business was hurt even being in a duopoly, while CRWD is in a very competitive business.

Shannon Saccocia said she doesn't see a "lasting impact" of this past weekend on DAL's next couple of quarters.

Weiss said he sold half of his UBER, because "I'm really concerned about the consumer." (This writer is long UBER.)

Jim Lebenthal said BofA's $85 target on GM is a "pretty bold call"; Jim's only at 70. Weiss said it's "not worrisome at all" that Berkshire trimmed BAC because no one knows why anyone including Warren Buffett (or someone else at Berkshire) is making a trade.

Weiss: Democratic presidential front-runner is a ‘pure socialist’

We tuned in to Monday's (7/22) Halftime Report hoping to hear Steve Weiss opine on the presidential race, and we weren't disappointed.

Weiss told guest host Dom Chu that, as far as presidential politics affecting markets, "It doesn't matter much. ... They performed better under Democratic presidents, and not by a little margin. They performed extremely well under Obama. And you can't tell me it's because he was pro-business, he was anti-business. They performed extremely well under Biden. And he's not pro-business. Trump is allegedly pro-business, and I would dispute that, he's pro-Trump, not pro-business. Uh, the market did well, but not as well. In fact, he increased the deficit ex-COVID spending, and with COVID spending, twice what Biden increased it. So, on one hand, you've got, uh, a presidential candidate Trump, but you can't believe a word he's saying, so you don't know what you're gonna get. On the other hand, you've got somebody who you can believe is a pure socialist. So, the market's got this uncertainty ... To make a bet on small caps because Trump's going to be, you know, they think Trump will be in the White House, is wildly, wildly misplaced. We also heard JD Vance say, he wants Lina Khan to stay there. He wants to break up big tech. That's also anti-business ..."

Moments later, Weiss continued: "I think the biggest risk to the market is what Trump said about, We're not gonna defend Taiwan unless they pay for it. Sure, they should pay for it. Is that really a decision you're gonna take. ... You had to be really living under a rock if you didn't think that Biden was going to eventually get out. He was going to, he should've, he never should've been in it."

Weiss also said Bill Ackman put out a tweet about Biden signing his statement electronically should prompt China to invade; "you've got to applaud how inane it was."

Joe Terranova, whose newfound commercial real estate theory sounds like it was inspired by Kid Rock's Republican Convention song, said that last week, "the market got excited" around the potential of a political "wave," but this week, "maybe it's reversing some of that." But Joe urged viewers not to "make too much" about how politics supposedly may affect markets.

Jim Lebenthal agreed with Joe and Weiss, stating "Don't make changes" to your portfolio based on political updates.

More from Monday's Halftime/Fast Money later.

Bill praises CRWD’s ‘transparency’ while Jenny says ‘there’s too much opacity here’

Oddly enough, nobody said a word about MSFT.

If nothing else, the CRWD disaster preempted any coverage of the Republican Convention ("what does this agenda mean for markets?") (Um, there's Joe's Theory, which sounds like it was lifted from Hulk Hogan's Republican Convention speech, that a Trump presidency is going to safen up cities everywhere and prompt everyone to return to work and companies to sign big office space leases) on Friday's (7/19) Halftime Report, guest hosted by Frank Holland.

Frank started off pointing out that CRWD was down 20% in premarket and only 9% at the start of the show. This stock was by far the day's most intriguing trading opportunity — we have no idea whether it's going up or down, but it's definitely moving. CRWD closed Friday down 11%, so premarket buyers apparently got a chance for a quick flip.

Frank immediately brought in CRWD long Bill Baruch remotely. Bill praised the CEO's "transparency" and said it's important for the company to be "transparent" about this "disaster." He said he hadn't put "new money" in the name for a while but was using Friday's selloff as an "opportunity" to do so. Bill said "275 is a big level."

Frank wondered if there could be "government intervention" (snicker) as a result of this incident. Bill said he doesn't think so and said this incident shows how "widespread their reach is" and "doesn't change the bullish case" and could even trigger "more spending" in cybersecurity.

Rob Sechan said the incident is a buying opportunity for the "space." He admitted, "I regret not owning Crowdstrike." But he said the valuation (snicker) doesn't "fit" within his discipline models. (So he's going to buy whichever cybersecurity name has a lower P.E. ratio.) (Oh. Joy.)

Jenny Harrington, as expected, said buying CRWD Friday is "playing with fire." Jenny did make a quality point that companies signing contracts with CRWD will, at this time, feel like they've got the "upper hand" in negotiations, a valid theory, although of course she didn't quantify it in any way.

Jenny relayed the comments from a client who gets hired by companies to find vulnerabilities in networks, and this fellow apparently emailed Jenny that Friday's disaster is "very very tip of the iceberg." (OK, we'll expect another one next week.) (OK, Jenny's got an inside source that the rest of the Street doesn't.)

A little bit later, Jenny actually claimed with a straight face, "I would be really nervous as a big tech holder going into this earnings season, because so much anticipation is already in there."

Jenny also claimed with a straight face, "It seems like the market's always violent all the time now." (Um, seen the VIX this year?)

Jason Snipe said it's "very concerning" that so much of the world could be shut down by a "content update," but he does think "spending does continue."

‘Momentum is still up 34%’

On Thursday's (7/18) Halftime Report guest-hosted by Frank Holland, Kevin Simpson said that NFLX is a "great stock to write a covered call on" heading into earnings. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Josh Brown said he'd "probably be a buyer" of NFLX if there was a "negative reaction" to earnings.

A few hours later on Fast Money, Steve Grasso pointed out that NFLX may seem like it always goes up, but "selloffs happen on a regular basis." He said he'll never drop his subscription but can't bring himself to buy the shares. Dan Nathan noted the potential near-perfect $700 double-top that has occurred but suggested that if you believe in the earnings growth from ad tiers, you want to buy the stock when it's down. Courtney Garcia said, like Grasso, she won't cancel the service but called NFLX "an expensive stock right now."

All good and fair comments, but the most telling is that Grasso and Courtney won't drop those subscriptions. In fact — this is just speculation from this page — we're guessing they (like most people) would pay a lot more for this service, which by itself is like a mini-cable subscription from the '80s.

But as for stock direction and whether to buy it right now, Dan makes a good observation about the double top.

Meanwhile, on Halftime, Josh Brown said the S&P was getting historically extended, but viewing Thursday's trading as a "consolidation period" is the "right bias."

As far as the prospects of a long-term rotation into a bunch of meaningless stocks that no one except a few panelists on Halftime care about, Josh pointed out, "Year to date, momentum is still up 34%." He said growth is up 25%.

Josh said he bought WBD in the 7s, he's happy with the short-term gain, but this company will "take years to work itself out."

Josh suggested CRWD has been "washed out enough" if you're interested in buying.

Kevin Simpson said he bought more CAT on Monday.

Kevin said big banks have a lot of upside, but he wouldn't chase, given what a strong month they've had. Josh said JPM is "very streaky" and has had an "outrageous" run. Josh called CG a "breakout candidate" and made it his Final Trade.

Kevin Simpson is selling WMT 75 calls.

On Fast Money, guest Stephen Roach said the odds of China making an "imminent" move on Taiwan are "extremely low." But Steve Grasso stated, "I think that China, their weakness on an economic level, actually makes me more convinced that they're going to invade Taiwan, not the other way."

Mel’s argument gets tag-teamed; Bryn apparently didn’t check the latest Atlanta Fed GDP

On Wednesday's (7/17) Halftime Report, the guest host, Missy Lee, got upended by a couple of panelists who disagreed with Mel's take on the markets.

Josh Brown had pointed out that the Russell and much of the S&P was advancing even though the S&P 500 was down. Mel tried to get in a question, and Josh said, "Go."

Mel stated that for those who aren't buying the narrative of the prospects of a Trump presidency boosting the Russell, "That is the sentiment on which this rotation is being built."

But Josh cut in, "I disagree," mentioning "CPI" twice. "It's an inflation-slash-rates-coming-down-story," Josh asserted, adding that "the Trump thing" is "a cherry on top."

Jim Lebenthal said "I'm with Josh on this," that the Russell is rallying because "interest rates are set to come down." Jim said lower rates don't do much for companies' financing, but the key is that the rates being lower "lowers the chances of a recession."

Jim observed that most people can't even name 3 companies in the "small cap sector."

Bryn Talkington asserted that what caused the shift in sentiment is the market pricing in Donald Trump being "pro-growth in the U.S." (That's a little different, but kind of the same, as Joe Terranova's newfound point that a Trump presidency will cause people in cities all around the country to believe their town is safer and thus start going back to the office and saving commercial real estate.)

Bryn further asserted, "We have weak economic data" and that GDP is "coming in at barely 2%." Jim protested that "it's 2.7." Bryn protested that's not what Atlanta Fed is saying.

Jim interrupted again, insisting, "Today, it says 2.7% updated today. Economic growth is not weak ... the economy's actually accelerating."

Bryn further tried to say, "The economy is slowing." Jim argued, "No it's not! ... 2.7 is higher than 1.4." Bryn said the economy is "fine" but not "strengthening."

Joe Terranova obviously had mealtime at either Primola or Bamontes on the mind, curiously stating, "To be properly nourished, you can't just eat the steak. You have to eat the potatoes and you have to eat the vegetables." Joe said there have been "signs building" that you want to own more than just the megacaps.

Bryn selling October 150 NVDA calls

Josh Brown on Wednesday's (7/17) Halftime Report outlined the stark downside of a likely lucrative career at Taiwan Semiconductor.

Josh said it's easier for TSM to find elite workers willing to spend "essentially their lives, in a clean room, wearing all white head to toe" (sounds like a Woody Allen movie) working on nanoscale, "almost molecular-level physics," than it is for INTC, for example, to find those workers in the U.S.

Regarding things that Donald Trump has tweeted about economic positions, Josh advised, "for God's sake," do not make investment decisions based on tweets. "All of the quote-unquote Trump trade industries, uh, underperformed from 2016 through 2020."

Joe Terranova said Wednesday's curious tape is the "price of admission" if you want to invest in chips. Jim "more worried than he's been in years (despite all-time market highs)" Lebenthal shrugged that it's more "profit taking" than anything fundamental. Jim added, "I see very large gains ahead for a lot of these names."

Bryn Talkington bragged about how "just a few weeks ago" she sold NVDA October 150 calls for "right around $10." She doesn't think it's going to 150 by October, but "if it does, I'm happy to have it called away." (And someone else will be even happier for buying those calls.)

JD Vance’s memoir still building name recognition

Jim Lebenthal on Wednesday's (7/17) Halftime report cited Jane Fraser's comments as an example of how great the outlook could be for C, one of the numerous stocks Jim has touted for many years, rain or shine.

There was a screen graphic showing CLF when Bryn Talkington discussed gold, but they didn't actually talk about that stock.

Bryn said of gold, "Historically it's been very hard to trade." Joe Terranova admitted that he has been "awful" at trading gold in the last few years.

Josh Brown unloaded SN. Way back in May, he called it "one of the hottest brands in American appliances." It's been kind of flat since then and down for a month, but not a terrible stock.

Joe cautioned, ahead of NFLX earnings Thursday, that there's been a "deterioration in the momentum." (This writer is long NFLX.) Joe said, "I'm not saying sell the stock," but "be aware of that." Joe said it may be time for "another price hike" in Netflix's service.

Bryn said she doesn't own NFLX but won't "chase it here," she thinks it's a "tough space" but praised the content options; she said one of the top shows on Netflix last night was "Hillbilly Effigy (sic)." Mel actually mentioned "Bridgerton" (#ohmy). Josh Brown called NFLX "unstoppable." Josh said not to count on NFLX trading lower after earnings, but if it does, it's a name you want to buy.

On Tuesday's (7/16) Halftime, a fairly sleepy show guest-hosted by Dom Chu, Dom said he's never been a "huge Netflix watcher," but he's been "incrementally watching more."

Rob Sechan on Tuesday said he added to CRM. Rob said his shop was up "150%" on AVGO in "shorter than a year's time frame," and after taking a third off, it felt like his clients had "voodoo dolls" of him. Amy Raskin said, "We took some of our Nvidia and put it into Broadcom."

Rob said he feels "very good" about being long LULU though his shop bought "a little early." Rob and Jason Snipe endorsed ABBV. Amy Raskin's shop sold DIS in one portfolio but kept it in another; Amy said she probably should've sold both. Rob Sechan said, "I'm 6-1."

Expert says Biden is Democrats’ ‘best chance’

On Monday's (7/15) Fast Money, Brian Gardner of Stifel put the odds of a Trump victory "in the 65 to 70% range."

Karen Finerman wondered how that would change "if Biden were to step down from the race." Gardner said, "It obviously depends on who that person is." But what was really interesting was the notion that Biden stepping down would actually reduce Democrats' chances; "Biden is probably their best chance at this- at this point."

(That's interesting, given that during the speech from the Oval Office just a day earlier, we heard "former Trump" (sic) and "battle boxes" (twice) (sic) and too many uses of "vision." But whatever.)

Guy Adami reiterated his belief that "regardless" of who wins in November, "it's gonna be inflationary." Karen Finerman complained that "both parties are completely fiscally irresponsible, right," and someone with a "fiscally conservative agenda" can't win, so "something has to break."

Joe suggests second Trump presidency would make workers feel safe to return to office

Monday's (7/15) Halftime Report, guest hosted by Dom Chu, was basically a space-filler until Jerome Powell spoke (which didn't happen until the final 1/3 of the program).

Steve Weiss said he was "shocked" that Squawk Box "focused" on the Pennsylvania tragedy when it has "zero to do with the markets" and was "way overplayed." Weiss also stated that, despite what Sarat Sethi said about Monday's market gains, "The banks have nothing to do with it."

Joe Terranova, though, was the real quote machine, first claiming that "a lot of advisers said to me they're actually afraid (snicker) to buy the megacaps, because they think the megacaps have quote-unquote gone up too much (snicker)." (What's that chapter in statistics class called "Too Much"?)

Weiss again sounded all the future warnings about commercial real estate. Joe actually, with a straight face, floated the theory that under a second Trump presidency, cities nationwide would be "having an improvement in safety and security standards, therefore a stronger return-to-work environment and an improvement in commercial real estate." Weiss, to his credit, did not chuckle (but almost did), saying he's not aware of that theory being the "dominant narrative" for why people work from home. (Um, Earth to Joe, regardless of who wins, the only improvement in local community "safety and security standards" is gonna come from those $1,400 checks heading everyone's way at the first indication of a below-par GDP number.)

Today: ‘Joe Biden is a hero; he saved democracy in 2020’ ... In a couple weeks: ‘What’s taking so long ... get out or we’ll challenge the convention ...’

In a fairly sleepy episode of the Halftime Report on Friday (7/12), Judge opened telling Steve Weiss that a day like Friday is "nirvana for the bulls." Weiss said markets on both Thursday and Friday were "very interesting." But Weiss said he'd wait to buy the names such as CAT and DE.

Judge bluntly declared, "This has been a rate-cut rally."

Kevin Simpson bluntly stated, "Nobody's gonna give up the megatechs and, and rush into value." Judge wondered what he means by "give 'em up." Kevin said he doesn't think anyone is selling NVDA to buy DE. Judge claimed that he doesn't think "anybody else does either" but wonders where will the "new money" go. Kevin said people will keep riding the Mag 7 "until it stops working."

Jim Lebenthal admitted he was "very nervous" (snicker) going into last weekend. But he got "comfort" (snicker) this week that small caps and value/cyclicals are a "good place to be."

Judge protested that Jim's still using "busy airplanes" as an economic bellwether, which seems "a bit of a cherry-pick." (What Judge could've said is that Jim for weeks has been warning about the risk of not getting a cut while on the other hand talking about how robust all the businesses of his favorite stocks are.)

Jim rationalized why C was down, suggesting expense projection was just a "touch higher" and the buybacks number is "light." Weiss said, "Who cares about the expenses, really," and added, "Frankly I was hoping for a miss so I could buy it."

Bill Baruch is putting on an INTC (snicker) trade, a December 40/45 call spread, claiming, "all of this negativity's been flushed out."

Kevin Simpson sold CSCO. Jim claimed though that "Cisco has turned it around." Kevin bought more TJX and AMGN.

Jim touted ORCL again after Kate Rooney reported that Evercore says it went from "zero to hero" this year; Weiss said ORCL isn't in the Mag 7 but has performed with it this year.

Weiss trumpeted how NFLX always seems to come through and that they "truly" don't care about quarterly performance. "I still like it a lot," Weiss said. (This writer is long NFLX.) Weiss didn't make the strongest argument he could've, that this company is a cable system of itself and still an extremely cheap product.

Jim’s sure that DAL is ‘sandbagging it’

We didn't hear a whole lot during Thursday's (7/11) Halftime Report that made us race to the Reporter's Notebook. But then, Jim Lebenthal (who wasn't on the day's panel) dialed in to discuss the DAL results.

As always, whenever Jim's favorite stocks have a tough earnings/reax, Jim insists it's still a great stock. "I'm not worried ... demand is fine," Jim said.

Judge said "it seems to me" that strong demand "isn't enough to, to do anything for the stock."

Jim rattled off all the earnings metrics and said he's "pretty sure they're sandbagging it (snicker)."

Jim nevertheless told Judge, "Your indictment is valid." Judge pushed back, "It's not my indictment. It's the market's indictment. That's my point," adding that if air traffic is as strong as it's ever been and an airline stock is down like this, "it's like, Hello."

Jim insisted DAL has "not been a bad stock" and that "this is not the stock to worry about," rather, that's LUV or AAL. Josh Brown said it's "highly unlikely" airlines will have another "36-month period" like they've just had, and "clearly, nobody wants this stock, it's trading at 2014 prices."

Jim tried to argue that the 10-year chart is not relevant, saying what happened 10 years ago doesn't matter, while Judge insisted the 10-year chart is relevant. Jim said he was glad to have the debate with Judge and Josh, it "got me charged up." Josh said DAL is "trading like a, like a Russian gold mine."

Meanwhile, Bryn Talkington shrugged that TSLA has been "so overbought" and "incredibly overbought." So now, she's suggesting selling September 275 calls for $15 in premium. (Um, back on June 14, Bryn recommended selling the September 200 calls.) Bill Baruch said TSLA consoliation around 220-230 would be "very healthy." Josh said if it gets to 205, 210, "it's probably interesting from the long side."

Bryn said she trimmed RBLX at 39. Indeed, she talked about adding in May and said she made "about 25% return in 2 months."

Reid Hoffman says presidential debates aren’t qualifications, even if the candidate apparently realizes, ‘Oh sh--, like I had, you know, senior moments at the debate’

Wednesday's (7/10) Halftime Report was halfway preempted by Jerome Powell's testimony (and one House member repeatedly attempting a point of order to complain about the line of questioning from another member) until producers cut the cord and told Judge (who for some reason stocked a full panel on a Fed day) to go full bore for the latter half-hour from Post 9.

Joe Terranova said the market is pricing in the September cut, and Wednesday, we saw a "little bit of the broadening (snicker) out."

Brian Belski said his bull case is 6,000, but he expects a "better buying opportunity" ahead because right now people are a little too bullish.

Jim Lebenthal, who supposedly hasn't been this worried (snicker) in a long time, said "we can make it through" to September if there's a cut coming, though it'll be a "bumpy ride" (snicker).

Jim actually claimed with a straight face that there's "plenty of people out there calling for a 4th-quarter recession."

Shannon Saccocia, who made an appearance at Post 9, actually mentioned the concern of "potentially (snicker) higher fiscal spending."

Joe noted he personally sold V a while back but that there's real regulatory risk for the credit card giants. Jim though said at 24 times forward, V is trading lower than its 10-year average, and he'd be interested.

Belski called NFLX the "Kleenex of streaming." (This writer is long NFLX.)

On Fast Money, at the beginning of his live interview with Julia Boorstin, Reid Hoffman said "Oh sh--."

Jenny vs. the QQQ, continued

After the Fed hearing and Steve Liesman's report took care of the first quarter of Tuesday's (7/9) Halftime Report, Judge turned in the 16th minute to Joe Terranova, who immediately (basically) stiff-armed the notion of making a "pivot" from all the tech that's working to small caps.

Throughout the show, Joe repeatedly suggested sticking with tech. Jenny Harrington was given several minutes to argue that health care and financials "should" (snicker) outperform tech without offering any evidence.

Jenny said, as she's been saying for 10-15 years, "Tech's had its run." Judge said the stocks don't seem to indicate that and wondered if earnings in a couple weeks will just "confirm" what we already know.

Guy Adami says Trump, if he wins, will make firing Powell his ‘first order of business’

Aside from predicting the end of the tech reign on Tuesday's (7/9) Halftime Report, Jenny Harrington also somehow tried to game the direction of short- and long-term rates once the Fed presumably cuts in September.

Bryn Talkington said "the only reason the long end would decline is if the economy is weakening." Bryn said it would take needle-threading to figure out which sectors will work based on how rates move in 2 months.

Josh Brown gushed about GS. "This thing breaks 475, what's stopping it from going to 500? Nothing. There are no sellers!" He may be right about that direction, but we've never quite understood "there are no sellers," though he used that term a couple other times.

Josh also touted NDAQ and said it's in the "celebration business (snicker)."

Josh bailed on KDP. But he touted TTD and SPGI after Judge asked for more names.

Joe called 775 a "reasonable" target for NFLX. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Joe said he golfed with Josh "weeks ago" and talked about NU. (Nobody mentioned who won the golf round or whether any mulligans were taken.

Josh said NTAP is having the same kind of renaissance as DELL and GLW.

Jenny talked about SLG and said about 4 times that it's got the BEST commercial real estate.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman's husband (like Rod Stewart put it, Some guys have all the luck) joined the panel to talk about earnings of "middle market private companies." We don't know anything about anything, and we definitely don't know anything about this subject, but Lawrence said the data is "very reflective of the U.S. economy."

A day earlier, on Monday's (7/8) Fast Money, Guy Adami said that if Donald Trump wins the presidency, "the first order of business amongst many is gonna be firing Jerome Powell and put in a hand-selected person, he or she, to be Fed chair, and their first order of business to lower rates in a meaningful way ... you think Trump wins, rates are going lower, at least longer-term rates, and I think that's gonna be really inflationary."

So, if we have this right, you buy the rate cut, not because it actually accomplishes anything but because other people are going to buy it

Early on Monday's (7/8) Halftime Report, Judge and the screen graphic said Grandpa Jim Lebenthal is the most nervous he's been in years. Grandpa Jim actually said with a straight face, "Now is the time where I can't ignore the nervousness (snicker) anymore." (Evidently, he can ignore the fire hose of $1,400 checks going out to Americans under either presidential candidate at the tiniest sign of a slowdown.) (Too bad he didn't have this level of nervousness at the beginning of 2022.)

Despite Jim's nervousness, minutes later, Stephanie Link suggested, "We could certainly melt up, for sure."

The problem with that is that minutes earlier, Stephanie claimed with a straight face that "the real true values in this market are all those other names" besides the Mag 7 and that "it's all about stock-picking" and "you really have to be careful in stock-picking" and can't just "broadly buy" a certain sector (as opposed to all those other times on the show when people laughingly recommend throwing darts at a board).

But if there's a decent chance of a melt-up, as Stephanie says, doesn't it make sense to own what's working? Do "melt-ups" typically reward the dog stocks over the ones that have been working?

In the 21st minute, Stephanie said that if you knew for sure there's a Fed cut in September, you should "absolutely" buy cyclicals, then she said 2 minutes later that a rate cut won't bring any immediate relief to industrials.

Josh Brown took a victory lap on GLW, an outstanding recent call and probably in the top 5 for Call of the Year.

Weiss’ springtime short of TSLA, even if he covered without a loss, is one of the worst calls of the year (even worse than handing out September 200 calls)

The stock of the week is clearly TSLA, which Judge briefly addressed Friday (7/5) on both the Halftime Report and Closing Bell.

On Halftime, Judge said TSLA is one of the names that's recently been lifting the Nasdaq. Bill Baruch dialed in and explained that he added TSLA last week in the mid-190s; he said he's sticking to his 250 plan and "trimming it by 20%."

Bill said the stock has had a "number of tailwinds" recently. Judge said it's got momentum, but that can be "fleeting."

A couple hours later, Judge told Bryn Talkington on Closing Bell that TSLA is up 27% for the week. Bryn said, "It's a sad time for the shorts, right." Bryn suggested short covering and options trading were among reasons for the gains. "To short the name has just been a real widowmaker time and time again," Bryn said.

But what Bryn didn't say is that on June 14, she suggested selling/(i.e., giving away) the September 200 calls in TSLA for $11.70 for a 6½% yield in 3 months, not even annualized. We're thinking the buyer of those calls got the better deal.

Nor did anyone mention that back in April, Steve Weiss was touting his TSLA short (within a week or 2, he said he was out of it) and basically, it's now become clear, getting a delayed facial after arguing with Bryn about the company.

Jeremy says Kamala Harris would be ‘prohibitive favorite’ if she’s presidential nominee; Judge says ‘goal posts may have moved’ (whatever that means) in the presidential race

On Friday's (7/5) Closing Bell, Jeremy Siegel told Judge that "most of the experts" see quarterly GDP being "under 2."

Jeremy said he's not calling for recession but he thinks the Fed needs to take certain indicators into account as far as economic slowing. Judge said it sounds like Jeremy is saying that if there's no cut in September, recession is "on the table" and the market might be in trouble. Jeremy said, "Potentially yes" and also said he thinks small caps (snicker) and value stocks (snicker) will "stay in the doldrums" until there's a rate cut.

Also, "We should not dismiss a 50-basis-point cut" if the data justifies it, Jeremy said.

Judge actually dabbled in the massive presidential politics story that's swirling around the non-CNBC portion of the world, telling Jeremy that "the goal posts may have moved" and even mentioned "whether President Biden stays in this ra- in the race, excuse me" and "the conversation at minimum is not gonna go away anytime soon." (There's been no "conversation" on the Halftime Report.) Jeremy actually said his opinion is that if the Democratic nominee happens to be Kamala Harris, she will be the "prohibitive favorite."

Meanwhile, Kevin Simpson on Closing Bell told Judge, "I just think that markets are priced to perfection right now, through most of the market, for most stocks." Judge questioned how that can apply to all the stocks that haven't had gains like Megacap Tech. Kevin said he's talking about the "broader index."

Jim is still assessing AMZN based on P.E. ratio

Josh Brown on Friday's (7/5) Halftime Report said the day's data gives the Fed "cover" to give a "hint" in July that "something's gonna happen in September finally."

Josh said that with unemployment around "50-year lows" with cooling wage growth and continued new jobs, we've got "an immaculate, uh, situation." (Maybe so, but not as immaculate as a December 1972 playoff game.)

Jenny Harrington said that based on Powell's remarks in Portugal, he and everyone else "clearly" wants a rate cut.

Jim Lebenthal said the difference between market weight (16.5) and equal weight (3.5) S&P year to date return is 13 percentage points. Jim said the lack of breadth is even worse than in 2023.

But Josh said that while people express fears about divergence, the divergence always seems to get resolved with a "huge catch-up trade." Jim though countered that it's been a "long time" ("years plural") since small caps have done anything, which makes people "worry about the leadership coming down the other way."

Judge and Josh pointed out how Andy Jassy has been steering AMZN to an all-time high; Brown said it's as simple as a strong, consistent "4-quarter stretch" of growth. He doesn't think targets of 240 and 250 are "terribly unreasonable." Josh touted Jon Fortt's interview with Matt Garman. Jim said he's a "recent convert" to AMZN and seconded what Josh said. (But Jim actually did cite the multiple, which is what led to the donnybrook over this name in February.)

Josh said JPM seems focused on risk-management, which may frustrate investors at times but pays off in the long run.

CNBC's Tanaya Macheel reported on how Mount Gox (snicker) was pressuring bitcoin's price.

Who agrees to a presidential debate weeks before the convention?

It seems clear, from the media reports we've read, that the campaign of President Joe Biden suggested the idea of a presidential debate in June.

That suggestion must've been made for 1 of 2 reasons: 1) The president, as the narrative goes, wanted to reconnect with voters before we get well into election season.

Or 2) Someone with inside knowledge thought a Plan B was needed if Plan A proved a little shakier than most people realized. And if the debate occurred after July, it would be too late.

We're guessing the opponent of this person did not seriously consider the possibility of this debate going too well — to the point that a more difficult opponent may yet still end up on the opposing side's ballot.

Honestly? We have no idea — this seems like a 50/50 call — as to whether the Biden campaign really did think the June debate was a good idea ... or whether they wanted to initiate a backup plan that would've otherwise been impossible without this kind of public embarrassment.

Yes, some poll numbers changed — but it does seem like the other side gained nothing by doing this event at this time and might well find itself with a different problem.

Timing is everything: Marko ‘4,200’ Kolanovic leaving JPM

Shortly into Wednesday's (7/3) Halftime Report, Judge made an announcement:

"Marko Kolanovic is, is leaving, uh, JPMorgan. Um, he had the lowest target on the Street of 4,200. We wish him well, obviously. Those are not easy jobs," Judge said.

Judge said Marko's name "was in the Halftime lexicon" and admitted that Marko's notes released during the Halftime hour were trumpeted by Judge "all the time." But Judge also admitted Marko has been "fighting a tide" since the October lows, and "he's been wrong."

The article by MarketWatch had a little more detail: "Kolanovic's departure from the bank follows a two-year stretch of disappointing market calls that saw him remain bullish as stocks tumbled in 2022, only to turn bearish just as the market started to recover in the fourth quarter."

So Judge says these are "not easy jobs" ... OK ... What "science" exactly do these jobs entail? How does one come up with regular projections about where the S&P 500 index is headed? And how does someone with at least 19 years experience in this field come to the conclusion that the 2024 stock market is headed to 4,200?

Joe claims the market is starting to ‘price in’ the presidential election

In one of the most curious schedules in recent memory, Judge was actually off on Monday-Tuesday of July 4th week, then turned up Wednesday (7/3) at Post 9 for the shortened day.

Joe Terranova claimed the consumer is "weakening" and "we're beginning to price in the presidential election." (What does that mean ... Buy Tom Barrack's favorite stocks?)

Steve "Paycheck to Paycheck" (everyone except the panelists on Halftime Report) Weiss said for the market to achieve 10% gains in the 2nd half of this year to get to S&P 6,000 "isn't unreasonable." But he said there could be "complications," such as Donald Trump's agenda being "largely inflationary."

Weiss said higher rates are finally impacting the economy.

Jim Lebenthal actually apparently is in somewhat of agreement with Weiss' concerns, stating, "What I need to be clear about" is that he's not selling stocks and he's "positioned for the broadening," but his thesis "relies on rate cuts starting in September."

Jim said the "danger" is that the Fed has "gotten away with this for so long" with restrictive rates and a still-strong economy and might think it doesn't need to cut in September.

Joe cautioned that if there's an AI disappointment, then a "10% correction" wouldn't surprise anyone. Which hardly seems like a big scoop. Judge scoffed, "Well, obviously ... if a star quarterback goes down, then the season's gonna be in jeopardy."

Judge further scoffed at all the calls that we're "due for correction," but why are we due; Judge indicated that the argument is, "I don't know; we just haven't had one in a long time."

Weiss said we've had "V-shaped corrections" in the last decade, "so it actually becomes an opportunity." Weiss said that to him, a "correction" in NVDA "would be down 30%." Judge said, "That would shake some nerves for sure."

Judge and Weiss agreed that if Donald Trump is elected and follows through on his border/deportations statements, there will be "wage inflation to a much larger degree," according to Weiss.

Jim claimed, without proof, "Adobe has figured out a way to actually monetize AI."

Shari Redstone: Ms. Excitement

During yet another discussion of PARA on Wednesday's (7/3) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal stated "it's been many quarters since I've bought this for clients, and I will not buy it for clients." Lucky clients.

Jim was hanging a 60 (and even a 70) on GM. (But he still didn't mention any exciting products.)

For whatever reason, UNP came up again. Jim again cautioned that "this is a railroad stock" and can only grow so much more than GDP. Judge said B of A has a 277 target. Shannon Saccocia offered, "The timing's a little tough right now for transports."

Joe noted energy equities haven't done as well as the spot prices, and he's "skeptical" of energy outperforming like it did in 2022.

Jim said he prefers casino stocks with Vegas exposure over those with "regional" exposure. Judge then told Jim, "What's happening in Vegas, uh, has been staying in Vegas. It hasn't been filtering through to the stock prices ... You left that detail out."

Joe Terranova, a casino skeptic, suggested "maybe it should be idiosyncratic," pointing to widely divergent stock performances among major casino names in the last 10 years. Jim said online sports betting has been a "home run" for names that have it.

Jim joked about an "APP-ellate" court; Steve Weiss flagged the pronunciation.

Phil LeBeau declared, "It will be the busiest week ever for airlines here in the United States."

Weiss during Final Trades urged Jim to unload PARA. Santoli didn't get a word in until Final Trades. Santoli suggested the Nasdaq might have 20,000 "round number, we did it-milestone-itis."

Fast Money crew has 8th-grade-level conversation about Dick’s Sporting Goods (like they always do)

There was no episode of Fast Money on Wednesday (7/3). Which might be a good thing, given how things went a day earlier.

Right after the A Block, Tim Seymour said, "If you look at Dick's, I mean, these numbers have gotten soft."

Dan Nathan said, "Tim, I know you like Dick's here, but ... look at how it's come in 15% from its all-time high, in just about a week."

"I said I don't like Dick's here. You seem somewhat obsessed with Dick's," Tim said.

"You boys are so silly," offered Karen Finerman.

Also on Tuesday, while Halftime was guest-hosted by Frank Holland, Joe Terranova said that if you believe that "we're in the middle of a secular bull market," which Joe said is a "durable thesis," then "guess what — you want a correction in this upcoming quarter." Joe said he would "embrace and welcome" a correction. (Translation: Joe wants the "big whoosh down" to load up on stocks because he thinks the market's going higher.)

Joe said it's pretty simple with the Fed; the "next move" will be a rate cut. "I don't understand why we continue to play Monday Morning, uh, Economists and try and figure out, is it stagflation, is there the possibility that if there's friction with inflation, that we're gonna get a rate hike?" Joe said.

Josh Brown said his "mental target" for UBER is "over a hundred." (This writer is long UBER.) Josh shot down Frank's question about classifying drivers as "gig workers," asserting, "The drivers ... do not wanna be classified as employees." Joe said that his own "mental target" for UBER is even higher than Josh's.

Joe said he's in CRWD "somewhere around the 120s." (Which really helps out potential buyers today.) Joe said PANW is "very quietly beginning to recover from the earnings disappointment that it's had the last 2 quarters."

Waiting for the Big. Whoosh. Down: No one wants to buy this market

Had Judge been present (he had the day off), the front and center of Monday's (7/1) Halftime Report surely would've been Steve Weiss' selling of NVDA.

Weiss said he trimmed NVDA twice recently, citing "euphoria" for the stock. "If they miss even slightly, the stock gets hit. I'll buy it again at that point. Right now, the valuation is just too high," Weiss explained, without telling us how the P.E. ratio of NVDA has served as a guide for him — or anyone — as to where the stock was going in the last 2 years (or ever).

But Jim Lebenthal countered, "I don't think it's overpriced," citing 2 or 3 more quarters of robust growth.

That was the type of muted bullishness Jim and others expressed during this obvious-holiday-week program. Jim also said he's "part of the list" of people who believe small caps will rally, but Jim conceded, "I've been calling for that all year."

Weiss said "I'm worried about the market for a number of reasons. ... In my view, everybody's bullish except for JPMorgan, which still is positive on the market." But Weiss admitted, "I can't point to a catalyst that's going to drop the market valuation." Weiss added that "there's ample reason to be cautious here." (Translation: They all claim during rallies that they want to wait for the pullback, then when there's a pullback, they'll always say there's "more to go" to the downside.)

"I think stocks are OK here," offered Liz Young Thomas.

"Basically we're in need of a correction," stated Joe Terranova, who went on to note, "This is the most significant underperformance for the Russell relative to the S&P ever. On record."

Guest host Frank Holland said that the 2nd half of the year in election years is usually strong for stocks. Liz Young Thomas said "usually" in an election year, there's strength through July, then some "volatility pickup" in the summer and then "relief" near the end. (Which sounds to us like a sell-in-August-buy-in-November trade.) But she thinks we're already "far above" a typical election-year return, so that theory doesn't apply this year.

Liz even brought up a subject that's taboo to Judge: "If somehow the ticket changes."

Oh, MAN! Remember when Matt Taibbi said Goldman Sachs is a SQUID??!!??!!

Joe Terranova on Monday's (7/1) Halftime Report said owning names like META is "THEE conversation." Joe said of the Mag 7, "Everything begins and ends with the direction that these companies are going to take with their profitability in the coming quarters."

Jim Lebenthal said he's trimming Alphabet without really explaining why. (Probably so he has more dry powder for Cleveland-Cliffs.) (This writer is long GOOGL.) Guest host Frank Holland noticed that Jim didn't explain why he's trimming, so Frank impressively persisted; Jim said he's just bringing it "down to market weight" and wants to add cyclicals (snicker).

After the A Block, Joe talked up PLTR (Zzzzzzzzz), one of B of A's top ideas for Q3 and one of those names that often comes up on the show for reasons we can't fathom. Joe also bought DDOG, stating a lot of people have been dismissing software, but Joe thinks there "might be a bottoming process that's unfolding."

Jim said for UNP to move, the earnings have to be good (not exactly an original thought). Frank questioned if the reshoring movement would hurt UNP down the line. Jim said, "It depends on what carloads you're talking about."

GS is another top idea from B of A; Steve Weiss said yet again that it's the "same story that I've been talking about," that once the deal pipeline opens up, there's a "monstrous" backlog on the way.

Frank Holland said Wells Fargo is giving TSLA a price target of 120. Bill Baruch, who was lakeside somewhere apparently already started on his holiday break, said he was buying TSLA a week ago in the 195-197 area. He said Wells' concerns are "priced in already." Bill said he'll buy more, and he pointed to the "August 8th robotaxi unveiling."

Joe said the JOET does not own TSLA, but it's "obviously making a very strong technical breakout."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said she bought NKE, under her slightly revised 3-day Rule.

Dan Nathan on AI: ‘There’s no use case in my life right now’

Before we get into Friday's (6/28) Halftime Report (see below), we have to do a little rewind to Thursday.

That's when Fast Money viewers heard Dan Nathan make some interesting comments about where all this AI stuff is ... going.

"There's no use case in my life right now other than a little Perplexity here and there of summarizing something for work or whatever, and that's not doin' a whole heckuva lot, because I have to check all the facts-" Nathan stated, before Mel asked a redirect question.

"I'll take the other side," offered Rebecca Patterson, citing a Dallas Fed survey of 400 companies that found "40% of them already are using AI in a daily basis. ... I think there are a lot of users out there across lots of different industries."

It’s a Peacock thing, so that’s why Al was on the show

While Dan Nathan doesn't see an AI use case, NBC Universal apparently does — Paris Olympic highlights in Al Michaels’ voice.

Honestly, we've read a couple news stories about this, and we still don't get it. Except it sounds like what we're eventually moving towards in Sports, which is the AI Vin Scully announcing a current Dodgers game (in which the voice will say, around the 5th inning, that the line drive was speared by Davy Lopes).

Al joined Friday's (6/28) Halftime Report and said of this NBC gambit, "They came to me, they had this idea, I didn't understand it ... I said, 'Let me take a look at this thing' ... they showed me a sample ... and I said 'Whoa,' I was frightened and I was astonished at the same time."

Well, we're not going to be any more frightened or astonished than we were when Gekko was in the Hamptons showing off his robot that could push a tray of drinks around a cocktail party (and then claiming "Dick here's going to get me an exemption, aren'tcha Dick??").

Al joked, "Some articles have called me, uh, Neil Armstrong, the Neil Armstrong of what's going on right now. I just hope I don't crash into the far side of the moon." (Well, savvy sportscasters always have to prepare good lines.)

Meanwhile, Al chuckled that "Farmer Jim" Lebenthal is in AMZN now. Al also said Jim "got rid of his (cringeworthy) Cleveland Cliffs," which isn't accurate per disclosures at CNBC.com.

Al chided analysts who say we're living in "uncertain times."

"I know how to day trade," Al told Judge, but he didn't reveal what's in his portfolio. (This writer is long FAS only because Al used to often talk about owning it and holding it forever (which isn't exactly the recommended formula for this kind of ETF) and in fact, excepting the resets in 2020 and 2022, it's got some impressive long-term charting.)

Judge suggests presidential race could get ‘a little bit messy’

On Friday (6/28), the presidential debate of the night before was a hot topic on cable TV.

Except on CNBC, where Judge and his panel appeared nearly oblivious to the subject on the Halftime Report.

But not totally oblivious, we have to say.

In the 9th minute, Judge finally alluded to the presidential race. First Judge said Tony Pasquariello's latest is that it's a "good time to tap the brakes," and Judge said "fall's gonna bring the, uh, the election, next 4 months. Take last night into consideration, could be a little bit messy. who knows what's gonna happen on, on, on the Democratic side, uh, from here forward (sic last 3 words redundant)."

That was the last viewers heard about presidential politics.

On Fast Money, viewers didn't hear about the debate either, not even any Final Trades of "Gavin Newsom," as Karen Finerman revealed to guest host Tyler Mathisen, "I couldn't watch the debate. I just couldn't watch it." (Note: We think "couldn't" really means "didn't," as it was shown everywhere.)

Joe actually tries to claim that botched buy of Judge’s footwear maker was a ‘great’ experience

Joe Terranova wasn't a panelist on Friday's (6/28) Halftime Report but surfaced on the phone anyway during a discussion of NKE, a long trade Joe had just put on this week and one of the most ghastly of the year.

Judge pointed out that Joe "took a flier" this week on the stock. Joe dialed in and actually began by saying, in one of the most hard-to-believe comments on the show, "I feel great about everything."

Joe pointed out that he "defined the process" (snicker) on Monday in which he explained putting on half a position with plans to make it full over 100, or exit with a stop below 90.

Joe said he got stopped out in the afterhours. Joe said it was just a "technical trade" going into earnings. Joe shrugged that he'll "move on."

Judge said "it's a good lesson (snicker) for the viewer" (basically not to own this stock now), then praised Joe, "You protected your downside," without asking Joe where the stop actually was fulfilled.

"I'm not gonna buy it back," Joe said.

The more we think about it, the more we realized that Joe indeed may "feel great," given that a couple other panelists have recently indicated that clients don't want any capital gains; Joe surely will not have any from his NKE sale.

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso said he bought NKE after the plunge partly because of the Olympics and partly because "things overcorrect."

"I don't think I bought the bottom," but it's a "good start," Steve said. Karen Finerman said "the guidance was just awful," but she is going to think about her (somewhat modified) 3-day rule in regard to this name.

Jim actually thinks the economy needs rate cuts

Jim Lebenthal on Friday's (6/28) Halftime Report stated, "As much as I hate to say this ... I think this economy needs a couple of rate cuts."

Moments later, Stephanie Link told Jim, "2 rate cuts is not gonna help the economy."

"It's- Sentimentally, it will," Jim insisted.

Jim said the "concentration" in the market rally is just "too much."

Brian Belski echoed Joe Terranova (not on NKE, but This Year in the Stock Market), stating, "It's starting to feel more and more to me like this is a 1996, uh, redo."

Kevin Simpson offered this on the S&P: "6,000 sounds ridiculous to me to the high side. Because we're priced to perfection."

Jim claimed that he shares Judge's "vexation" over casino stocks. "Hey, I don't own the stocks, so I mean, I'm not vexed, I'm just like, What is up," Judge protested.

Judge has to discuss this debate performance on Friday’s Halftime

On some CNBC shows (um, think "Squawk" titles), politics are completely fair game. On others, such as Halftime Report and Fast Money, viewers tend to hear, "This is not a political show."

Maybe not. But when a leading presidential candidate is saying the solution to any economic issues this country may be experiencing is to soak the rich, while that candidate cannot even string together 2 consecutive sentences, it's time for Wall Street to weigh in on this issue of serious national importance.

(Note: We know how Lee Cooperman feels about that particular slogan, except Lee isn't on Halftime anymore.)

Your turn, Judge.

Jim admits that multiples can be ‘misstated’ ... if earnings are good

The top story of Thursday's (6/27) Halftime Report was Josh Brown buying more AMZN, which he said is having its "most meaningful breakout" since August 2020.

Brown said it's having a month of "substantial accumulation." Eventually, Brown's extensive case for the stock got into ... yes ... AI.

Jim Lebenthal said he'll "corroborate a lot of what Josh said."

Most interesting, though, was Jim's recollection of getting a "ribbing" back in February because the AMZN forward multiple was 40, and Judge and Josh wondered, "Are you still really a value investor?"

Jim said, "At the time, I said that the multiple was, was misstated versus where earnings are going. And that's clearly showing up right now."

Gotta admit, we were a bit surprised here at CNBCfix HQ, because we didn't recall this debate/discussion at all. But after checking the archive (just hit PgDn about 50 times), we did indeed find an entry on Feb. 22 summarizing that day's Jim-Josh clash.

But actually, Jim said on Feb. 22 that AMZN is "not an expensive stock." While Thursday, he seemed to be saying that it actually was expensive back then, just not to someone who saw bigger earnings ahead.

What was actually memorable from the Feb. 22 flap was that Josh twice clapped at Jim while stressing Josh's point that P.E. ratio is not a valid guide to where AMZN's shares are going.

Anyway, just as in February, Jim and Josh both like the stock.

Meanwhile, in kind of a strange trade update, Bill Baruch joined remotely to address his MU call spread trade (see below), which was buying August 155s and selling August 170s.

"It hasn't worked out," Bill said Thursday, revealing, "I'm down a little more than 50%." But he doesn't think "the trade overall is down." What he's doing now is buying back "half the 170s," which becomes a "more bullish play" on the 155s.

So, just 1 day into this trade that doesn't seem like anything more than a curious options gamble, Bill is basically saying he's still got most of it on.

Jenny Harrington said of Rio Tinto, "We've owned this since 2017; have a really nice return." (Well, anyone who has owned a stock since 2017 and has NOT had a nice return on it probably needs to think about their investing acumen.)

Discussing KO, Rob Sechan actually mentioned "the old Dr. J-Michael Cooper commercial: 'Ya can't beat the real thing. Ya can't beat the feeling.'"

Jim said DIS "has become a cheap stock." (But even if it were "expensive," maybe the earnings would go up and then it wouldn't be expensive.) Jim wondered rhetorically, "Could you actually re-create this company for anywhere near book value?" Hmmm, well, it would be kind of hard to re-create hundreds of movies, some of them decades old, without violating a copyright of some kind.

Josh talked up one of his holdings, IOT, which was also touted by Steve Grasso the previous day on Fast Money; Steve said it "bounced right where it should've bounced."

Judge reported that CLF is down 35% (we think that's 35% YTD, though it's even worse for just Q2). Jim explained, "Hot rolled coil is down 40% in pricing from the start of the year" and suggested maybe CLF is still hoping to buy X (the stock, not the social media company that generally sells for twice as much price as it's worth).

After Judge did a go-round with panelists on stocks that have been slumping, Rob told Judge, "Thanks for bringing up the, the blemishes on our face." Judge said it's "easy" just to talk about stocks that are up.

Jenny said INTC and BGS are the 2 stocks her clients "hate" to own more than any others.

On Thursday's Fast Money, Karen Finerman said WBA is a "melting ice cube" that's had the front of store hammered by AMZN for years and now the back of store is also being hammered by AMZN. Karen said WBA is cheap, but, "It wouldn't shock me at all if it gets cheaper."

Weiss disagrees with basically everything Joe says about NVDA

There was only about one thread of commentary worthy of a headline on Wednesday's (6/26) Halftime Report; frankly, we could've done it in half the time and space had Weiss only stopped talking.

Joe Terranova started off the show advising viewers, "If you do not own Nvidia, you need to get ownership of Nvidia through some form of an ETF that has a large weighting."

Hmmm, OK. But if you need to "get ownership," why not just buy shares of the stock? Joe explained why not.

"If you wanna go and buy the stock outright, I wanna do it in the options market. I don't wanna buy the stock right now, at this point," Joe said. "I just don't wanna go buy the pure equity right now," because there's an "acceleration in the intraday volatility," and Joe expects a "very significant roller coaster ride."

(Translation: Joe thinks the stock might go down. Which is fine. But suggesting a better choice is to try to time the NVDA trade with options seems to us like a reach to anyone not named "Najarian.")

Judge assured that they were going to "monitor" the Nvidia meeting that just started as the show did.

Then Judge aired a clip of Eric Jackson from a day earlier on Closing Bell (tip: If you miss Closing Bell, you can always catch the highlights the next day on the Halftime Report) predicting a "lofty" multiple for NVDA and maybe a $6 trillion market cap; "The euphoria hasn't yet caught up."

Steve Weiss said that's a "little bit" of crazy talk. Then he said, "There's no qualifier, it's crazy."

Weiss wondered how much of NVDA's gain has been "pulled forward" and, correctly in fact, questioned Joe's strategy: "If you have a long-term view of a stock, and it's going through a period of volatility, why would you buy the options? 'Cause you'll lose that premium, you know, unless you go further out. So you've gotta get the premium right, which means you've gotta get the time right in stock moves, and then, you've gotta get the direction right on a longer-term basis up to that date. So, I would not buy the options if I'm a believer. If I'm a believer long term, ride the volatility out and buy the stock."

Then, Weiss took issue with Joe's opening statement. "You don't have to own the stock. You don't have to own any stock," Weiss said. "You're playing with fire here. You're really playing with a pure momentum stock at this point where the share price in my view is not reflective of the actual fundamentals."

Joe responded to Weiss by stating that Weiss, in saying you don't have to own the stock, given what NVDA did in 2023 and 2024, "You're basically saying 'I'm gonna be satisfied underperforming the market.'"

But Weiss and Kari Firestone said what happened in the past isn't necessarily going to happen in the future.

So, "What you're basically both saying is that we're not gonna see the same type of strong performance from this company that we've seen to date," Joe concluded.

Weiss said he's not saying that, he's saying the stock price is "dissociated" from the fundamentals, but Joe's conclusion is still an "accurate statement."

Judge reiterated Eric Jackson's position and $6 trillion prediction for Weiss. "I'm not sayin' it won't get there," Weiss said, but Judge noted Weiss had just called that "crazy talk." Weiss insisted "it is crazy talk," then said, "Forget that I said that I don't doubt it'll get there. Strike that from the record ... What I'm saying is, it could get there," but for Weiss to buy, it'll take the fundamentals to "vastly improve."

Kari said lofty NVDA outlooks are becoming "part of the discourse," which has taken on "very extremist" forecasts.

Joe said it's really hard to find in other stocks the growth expected for the Mag 7. "If you have to answer to clients ... it's almost mandatory that you have to be in these names," Joe asserted. Joe pointed out that the Russell is underperforming every year, 2021, 2022, 2023 and this year even though rates were a lot lower in 2021 and 2022.

Joe offered NKE as evidence he's buying something besides Mag 7. He said he wouldn't be surprised if he got stopped out.

Weiss insisted he's got diversification through defense names but acknowledged, "My portfolio's gonna trade as the megacaps trade." Weiss shrugged that "Nike is to me no different than Starbucks."

Kari talked up HD (Zzzzzzzzz). (Talk about "no different than Starbucks.")

As Seema Mody and Judge provided updates of the Nvidia meeting, Joe said demand for NVDA products isn't in question, it's whether supply can meet it. But Weiss said demand should be questioned. Joe pressed Weiss, "I can't get a read on whether you're bullish or bearish on it."

Weiss said, "I own it. So overall, I'm bullish."

"Welcome to my world, dude," Judge said to Joe. Weiss said he's just "trying to throw cold water" on the euphoria, as he doesn't know when the momentum will stop.

Bill Baruch joined the show remotely in the last 5 minutes to discuss his personal options trade in MU, buying the 155 August calls for $8.20 and selling the August 170 calls for $4.80. Bill said the trade is "not for the faint of heart."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said AI is still in the "early innings," but NVDA is bound to have pauses or pullbacks, the stock's not going straight up every day.

Josh says NVDA could be ‘dead money for a little while’

Once again, the prospect of accrued tax liability apparently seems to be weighing heavily on Rob Sechan's account management.

Rob on Tuesday's (6/25) Halftime Report explained that he bought AVGO "about a year ago." He said that "it's up 150% since we bought it" and went from being a third of a weighting to a triple weighting. So, he "trimmed that over the last month or so."

Right there, this page would probably take issue, as it often does, with the notion of selling stocks based on how much the other stocks in your portfolio are worth, but Rob actually opened up a different front.

"I will tell you that we got a little pushback on that because the tax consequences were relatively short term. So, our clients didn't obviously love that," Rob revealed.

Well, actually, if we understand that comment correctly, the clients are probably right to be unhappy with that sale. If the shares were bought "about a year ago," and they were just sold recently as short-term gains rather than waiting, say, a month or so for a long-term gain, the clients have a legit beef, although Rob has a legit counterargument if his opinion is that the stock is bound to pull back and negate more in gains than is saved by the difference between long and short term.

OK. But that wasn't all.

Discussing his trimming of MCD, Rob said, "Frankly, you can't kill people with capital gains when you manage taxable accounts."

Well, we did wonder about that one on a few levels. Taxes do kinda suck. On the other hand, if the goal is to never trigger a capital gain, then either 1) You'll never get to touch the fruits of those great calls you've made, or 2) You'll ride those great gains back to break-even or worse if you stick around long enough.

Meanwhile ... Bryn Talkington said of NVDA, "I think more volatility in the name is a good thing."

Josh Brown said NVDA was "amazingly overbought," so, "I could picture the stock being dead money for a little while."

Josh gushed about the MMM "breakout," even though it's "done nothing forever."

Josh said the prospect of ad revenues could be "a whole 'nother story" for UBER. (This writer is long UBER.)

On Tuesday's Fast Money, Grandpa Guy Adami said he thinks the unemployment rate "is gonna start to tick up in a meaningful way."

Judge and Weiss might as well wear track suits to Post 9

Gotta say, Monday's (6/24) Halftime Report wasn't exactly chock-full of stock tips.

The most noteworthy comment wasn't really on the program, as Judge explained to the panel that Ed Yardeni is all in on the market, not just now but even through 2026, with 8,000 on the S&P by the end of the decade. (Note: Neither Judge nor anyone else took a look back at what Ed was forecasting 6 years ago.)

Bryn Talkington offered, "History tells you we have a strong 2nd half," and, apparently referring to election years, said this is "the 2nd-strongest first half since World War II."

"Feels to me like 1996 all over again," said Joe Terranova. But Joe said he's not seeing the evidence yet of the market "broadening out."

Steve Weiss, who like Judge was again proudly in sneakers at the NYSE, said we're "without a doubt in a restrictive interest rate environment," and in that type of environment, "you don't get a growth multiple." So, "The market is overvalued at this level."

Judge suggested looking to "where the puck is going" and the "inescapable" prospect of lower interest rates down the road.

Weiss acknowledged that this time could be different because "we're much more reliant on technology than we are on labor."

Joe said there's been "easier monetary policy" because "QT has been pared back."

Judge said Tony Pasquariello said in his latest note that he was expecting a market breather, but stocks "declined the offramps," which wasn't really the most profound forecast of all time.

Weiss said those who came in last that "couldn't resist" the momentum in NVDA are the ones selling now.

Joe said we have to be "remarkably surprised about the resiliency of the market overall." (Why be surprised if, as panelists always say, "the market goes up 90% of the time.")

Weiss bought more AAPL. He said "the risk/reward is pretty attractive." Joe said Weiss and others are buying the stock "clearly" because of "the innovation of Apple intelligence (snicker)."

Judge said that Bernstein says to buy the "guac" — er, dip — of CMG. (Actually, that was a pretty good line.) Joe said the split is a "very positive thing," but not just for the market but employees because of the ability to do equity grants. Though Joe conceded it's "susceptible" to a correction but advised being prepared to step in.

Jason Snipe seconded Morgan Stanley calling UNH a top pick, he likes it as a 2nd-half play. He called $600 "reasonable." Joe said he can make a "purely technical" argument for NKE. He said it's moving toward its 200-day at $100; he'll take a "very small position" and add if it gets to the 200-day and he'll keep a $90 stop.

Bryn predicted "nice returns" in energy through year-end. Joe said he's been "exhausted" by energy stocks. Joe said he had dinner with Fish and they discussed the 67-95 crude price range.

Some people SOLD Nvidia!

We did catch Friday's (6/21) Halftime Report at CNBCfix HQ, but kind of wondered, what was the point (other than checking out Judge and Weiss' comfortable footwear).

Steve Weiss said he trimmed NVDA, because his position "got too big." (Tip: Stocks don't care about the size of other stocks' positions in Weiss' portfolio.) (Judge obviously has no issue with logos.)

"This is really on steroids," Weiss said.

Bill Baruch trimmed apparently for the same reason. (Zzzzzzzzz) "It's our No. 1 position," Bill said.

But Jason Snipe is "not quite yet" trimming NVDA.

Bill Baruch actually said, "I would never go against Dan Ives, especially in a name like Tesla."

Bill Baruch took a "starter position" in DELL with money that "came out of Micron."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said that barely more than 24 hours earlier (Thursday morning), there was a feeling of "sort of frothiness" and even a "panic buying" in NVDA. Karen wouldn't be surprised by a "further pullback," although it wasn't clear to us whether she meant NVDA or stocks in general.

Karen Finerman kind of chuckled about the sudden emphasis on banks' living wills, including the letter addressed to "Mr. Dimon."

Uber (but not the car rides) — Judge kinda seems to be scripting the same show at 2 different times

At the 6th minute of Thursday's (6/20) Halftime Report, Judge said he saw a story, and "this is a big deal" and "this needs to be discussed."

Indeed. He needed to discuss it at least twice, actually. (Bear with us.)

Judge, who paired his suit with white tennis shoes on Thursday, reported that Morgan Stanley Wealth Management boosted its tech holdings in its model portfolio. (Zzzzzzzzzzz.)

Judge said it's a "big deal," because "unless you're like an uber, a high-net-worth client of private wealth management at these places, you generally get put in model portfolios, right. Pre-designed portfolios. They're not personalized."

Judge wondered if there's a potential "risk" from increasing exposure to tech.

Josh Brown said this is happening because of "client demand." Josh added, "These moves, typically when they happen, are closer to the end of something than they are to the beginning."

"OK. That. Is. My. Point," Judge said, adding it's not a "shot at Morgan Stanley" or other wealth managers.

OK. Fast forward a few hours. On Closing Bell, Judge mentioned to Santoli — and note the terminology — that Morgan Stanley Wealth Management boosted its tech holdings in its model portfolios. "Pre-designed portfolios ... unless you are a (sic not 'an') uber high-net-worth person, uh, who is getting super-specialized and personalized portfolio construction, many of our viewers who are clients of whatever firm are getting put in a so-called model portfolio."

Judge then echoed Josh Brown (attributing it to Josh), saying people are "callin' up their advisors" and demanding more tech. Then Judge echoed Josh again, stating, "This type of stuff doesn't necessarily happen at the beginning."

‘Zero snark’ — Only 1 person seems to think NVDA 2024 really is like CSCO 2000

Judge opened Thursday's (6/20) Halftime Report by asking Josh Brown if NVDA's gains are "gettin' silly."

Josh responded, "It might be justified, but it might be happening too soon. And the pace of this has definitely gotten silly."

Josh said if you just bought NVDA 5 minutes ago, "Don't write emails," because he's not saying you'll lose money. Brown said he's been long NVDA for 8 years, and "it's a hundred-bagger."

Sarat Sethi said he has taken profits in NVDA "twice in the last year," but it's still 6% of his portfolio, which is "really high," so he's "about ready to do it again." (Tip: Stocks do not care what Sarat's basis is.)

But Josh suggested NVDA has a "magnet" to 150.

Judge thought he was airing a clip of Keith "Life Sciences" Meister saying Tuesday on Closing Bell that NVDA's multiple may be deservedly high. Instead, viewers heard Keith say, "I think rate cuts will actually be a negative for the market," because cuts would happen if things are "rolling over." Judge said, "Well, that wasn't it." But Judge said Keith said that if NVDA is "not overearning," it deserves a "really high multiple."

(Keith's comments on rate cuts apparently were supposed to air during Closing Bell, when they did re-air; someone jumped the gun. Keith's comments on NVDA also re-aired later.)

Jenny Harrington, as she always says about tech gains, said, "I think things have gone too far."

Jenny said WSJ had an article about the last time a computing infrastructure company was the biggest market cap; it was CSCO in 2000, just after it passed MSFT.

Jenny said that eventually, "competition" and "maturity" set in and pointed to potential signs of toppiness. Josh said, "Except we could've said that 5 years ago. And it would've been right, to say, but very wrong" for investing.

Jenny again mentioned her 2 clients who called her wanting to be in bitcoin. Judge told Jenny that he's "honestly" asking with "zero snark" (snicker), "What is it like to be outside the window looking in." Jenny admitted, "It feels like I'm in a bear market."

But Jenny said, "I know I'm not alone in this. I don't know anyone who's up as much as the S&P 500."

Jim Lebenthal, who had a quiet show, said NVDA is going higher, not because of P.E., but because "everybody wants to own it." Josh said Jensen is talking about "sovereigns" loading up on NVDA equipment.

Josh said that CSCO had the benefit of companies spending because of Y2K fears ... and the "same phenomenon is starting to develop" with companies afraid of being at the back of the line for NVDA chip orders, which might be pulling forward future demand.

As Judge discussed the "big deal" of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management upping its model portfolio tech exposure, Josh contended that money managers will hear the ducks "quacking" about tech and will feed the ducks with what they want. Sarat said, "In that world, it's called closet indexing, right. You will not lose your job if you closet index."

Josh said it's actually young investors who flooded 5% money market accounts, so if you're recruiting young investors, you have to entice them with tech.

On Closing Bell, Joe Terranova cautioned that "there's gonna be a day where Nvidia's down 10%." On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said NVDA "absolutely" could pull back 20%.

Steve Grasso said on Fast Money that the first 15 days of July "are the best 2-week period going back to 1928," and, "the last time the Nasdaq was down in July was 2007."

Josh actually endorses a stock touted by Jenny

In a rare moment of agreement, Josh Brown on Thursday's (6/20) Halftime Report seconded Jenny Harrington's touting of WMB.

Judge said an obscure stock, IOT, was initiated buy by B of A. Josh said IOT "one day will be discovered" and has a "really interesting niche," but the technicals don't look great.

Sarat Sethi said TDG is in the "sweet spot of demand" for plane upgrades.

Josh Brown said he expects he'll get stopped out of WBD at a small loss.

Josh said that after being a "huge home run," CMG seems to be trading "in line" with other large-cap Nasdaq stocks.

Judge aired a clip of Keith "Life Sciences" Meister calling utilities a "good investment" (Zzzzzzz). The panel seemed to agree that an assortment of names are good plays.

On Fast Money, Guy Adami mentioned, as he does about every day, that the president's approval ratings are at "historic lows."

Steve Grasso: Boeing may have to ‘ditch’ the 737 Max

Judge opened Tuesday's (6/18) Halftime Report citing B of A's fund manager survey that's the most bullish since November 2021.

Joe Terranova assured viewers that the bullishness of today is "completely different" than that of November 2021.

Back then, Joe said, bullishness "surrounded Peloton non-profitable companies."

Citing surveys, Judge said the Mag 7 is "one of the most crowded trades of all time," though it doesn't seem to be "dissipating." Josh Brown made a lengthy argument about differing Wall Street perceptions and concluded, "The historic relationships between P.E. ratio, and, and short-term rates, Fed funds rate, and 10-year Treasury — throw them out the window. They're not helping your investment process."

Joe is somehow already trimming the XLG after touting it as recently as a day earlier. Joe said he's "selling half" because he "captured 7% profit in 2 weeks." (Tip: Stocks don't care what someone's cost basis is.)

Bill Baruch wasn't on the panel but remotely explained that he trimmed MU and bought DELL.

A lot of the show involved people trumpeting how much certain stocks were up. (So let's see exactly how these portfolios are doing.)

On Tuesday's Fast Money, Karen Finerman said she bought NVDA puts, which have lost value: "I do really believe we're still in early innings of AI."

Steve Grasso said BA may have to "ditch" the 737 Max. "There's NO light at the end of the tunnel," Steve said.

Josh suggests Judge’s observation about PFE might be ‘misleading’

Judge on Tuesday's (6/18) Halftime Report said PFE (snicker) had just recorded 8 straight days of losses. (It actually closed up on Tuesday.) (This review was posted overnight Tuesday/Wednesday.)

Recent PFE fan Josh Brown suggested Judge was being "misleading" about "8 days in a row," given that it's only fallen from "29 to 27 and a quarter." Judge said it's "noteworthy" and "we're just noting streaks like we do."

Josh said the GLW story "is just so sexy."

Meanwhile, Josh said that "politically, it is impossible to oppose, um, the, the crypto lobby, and just regular people who own crypto."

That prompted Jenny Harrington to actually say she has "2 clients" who "carved out part of their portfolios like on their own, to dedicate to bitcoin and bitcoin ETFs." (So much for the Dividend Growth Strategy.)

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman sold NFLX 750 calls against her long position; "that's not gonna protect me that much to be honest but I felt like, oh my God, this has been quite a run, I gotta do something." (This writer is long NFLX, which is undercharging customers by a serious margin, making us wonder why Karen Finerman is trying to trade around this stock.)

Analyst actually had a 4,750 S&P target

The A Block of Monday's (6/17) Halftime Report, guest hosted by Frank Holland, didn't really break any ground in terms of anyone having a new stock market outlook, but Frank kept a crisp discussion going nonetheless.

Frank started off by saying "fresh (sic 1st word basically redundant but passable) record high" about 4-5 times just in his intro, in which Frank said Julian Emanuel of Evercore is taking a "pretty big swing" in changing his S&P target from 4,750 "all the way up to 6,000."

Joe Terranova stated, "We will get to 6,000 at a certain point in time," which is not exactly a groundbreaking prediction, but "it's very difficult to forecast an S&P price target ... by a specific period of time." (So in other words, all or nearly all of the Street's targets are going to be wrong, so ... who cares.)

Anastasia Amoroso said the Fed isn't certain about when the rate cut will happen, but markets will "take it, you know, in stride."

Steve Weiss said the market "drove past what I think is reasonable valuation levels, but it doesn't mean it's gonna correct." But Weiss said small caps "should be down."

Jim Lebenthal, once again jousting with Weiss over the health of the consumer, said the Fed last week got "incrementally more hawkish."

Jim started making data predictions of "continued increases in retail sales." Anastasia too predicted "better than expected retail sales." We wonder how anyone has some sort of insight as to how that number is going to come in. Have they been counting cars in parking lots?

Weiss asked Anastasia if it's her call that credit card delinquencies "won't go higher than what has been normal." Anastasia indicated it would "pick up" for the "lower-income cohort." Weiss cut in that "60% of the consumer lives paycheck to paycheck. That's a pretty big lower-end cohort, right?" (And what official survey actually defined 60% of people living under the term "paycheck to paycheck.")

Weiss said the "firehose effect" of people apparently cutting loose with their wallets because they were cooped up in the pandemic is "starting to peter out."

Frank told Jim that just 5 stocks are "60% of the gains" in the market and wondered if that's troubling to Jim. "Not so far," Jim said.

Anastasia said she doesn't expect "megacap leadership to fall apart, but I do expect that outperformance to come down."

Joe again decided to "share my experience" of running an "equal-weighted strategy," which now is "not the strategy that is working in the marketplace (sic last 3 words redundant)." So he bought the XLG.

If Taco Bell starts serving an AI taco, watch YUM take off

Joe Terranova, fresh off his red-hot AAPL post-earnings call that has catapulted him into the lead for Call of the Year, was sort of waffling like L'eggo my egg'o on Monday's (6/17) Halftime Report.

Guest host Frank Holland said DDOG was reiterated "sell" at Monness. Joe said it "peaked out" in February and that the AI networking angle is a "future story" and "quite candidly," he has to admit he's not sure whether it's a buy or sell at the moment.

At another point, Joe 3 times said "Elliott" (he meant "Starboard"; Frank corrected him) is in ADSK; Joe said ADSK has a "governance issue that has to be addressed." But he doesn't think that's the reason "Starboard" is in the name.

Frank said Dan Ives hiked his MSFT target to 550. Joe said MSFT has a "rich" valuation, but just try to find another company with this kind of offense as well as a "defensive nature" (sounds a little like the '78 Steelers).

Jim Lebenthal actually claimed, "What you got from last week's Adobe results is clear indication that Adobe has figured out very well how to monetize AI." Jim said it's at a "very attractive entry point."

Jim again touted ORCL, as he does about every appearance, again citing the multiple.

Jim said "as long as GDP grows," which sounds like a significant qualifier for a lot of stocks, UNP is "a good stock to own at this price."

Kate Rooney provided an update on the bare-bones, rescheduled GME meeting in which people actually thought they might hear a turnaround plan. "We did not get any specifics on that plan," Kate said.

Rob says tech hasn’t been this expensive ‘since the tech bubble’

It's probably not a contender for Call of the Year, but make of it what you will. Rob Sechan on Friday's (6/14) Halftime Report explained the market this way: "Any dip that is not met with a growth scare is a dip to buy."

Rob, though, cautioned, "Markets, specifically growth and technology, have not been this expensive since the tech bubble. Period. Full stop."

Judge hasn't read a Tony Pasquariello note in days; on Friday, Judge said Tony's latest is "secular winners the weapon of choice: megacap tech," or in other words, buy the "highest conviction/highest quality names."

Judge asked Jim about the week's bifurcation between tech and cyclicals. Jim conceded, "The cyclical trade is in question because of the question about the durability of the earnings growth there."

Jim again stressed his belief that the businesses are fine, even "fantastic" in some cases, it's just the stocks that are stumbling, and if he's correct, either the stocks will catch fire, or the buybacks will pile up.

Jim said to viewers, "If you disagree, and you think the economy is goin' down the tank, do not own these stocks."

Judge couldn't resist a counterargument. "But see here's the thing. It doesn't have to be so binary as you present it. ... Many people believe that the economy is durable, and yet, this month, financials ... industrials ... materials ... energy ... over a month are down at least 3%. ... These stocks are not working right now," Judge said.

"Factually correct. You'll get no disagreement from me," Jim said.

Jim more than anyone correctly talked up the boost from NVDA’s split

In an interesting segment, Bob Pisani on Friday's (6/14) Halftime Report took up the comeback of stock splits, noting they're "far less common than 20 or 30 years ago," because they fell out of favor after the dot-com crash, and the institutional base has come to dominate the market.

Bob indicated the recent splits are occurring because of "absurd levels" of nominal stock prices and interest in "appealing to retail investors." Bob said that while in theory, splits don't affect market cap, things like higher trading volumes and wider shareholder base provide a "subtle but beneficial effect on the stock."

Bob said the "over-1,000 club" might be split candidates.

Kevin Simpson noted that people selling covered calls need 100 shares of the stock, so splits are welcome. Bryn Talkington said splits are just an indication of the health of the company.

Who is actually buying 3-week AAPL 240 calls?

Kevin Simpson opened Friday's (6/14) Halftime Report saying he sold covered calls on his "entire position" in AAPL. He said his shop was trying to "harvest volatility" with the 3-week 240 strike, so they sold the calls for $1 of premium, which he said "annualizes out at an 8% capital return on principal."

Sounds like a lucrative trade. The thing is, this page knows nothing about options other than what comes from the Najarii commercials, but it seems hard to believe that AAPL in that short of a time span could continue its rocket ride past 240.

Judge told Bryn Talkington that AAPL had a "new (sic redundant) record high this week." Bryn said, "I think the market's saying, 'We will get an upgrade cycle.'" Bryn said she loves the options trade put on by Kevin.

Jim Lebenthal, though, said "I would not" buy AAPL, because he thinks the market cap increase is more than the upgrade cycle merits.

Judge silent on presidential politics as big debate looms

For either the 2nd or 3rd day this week, Bryn Talkington on Friday's (6/14) Halftime Report addressed TSLA, stating, "Technically, the stock looks to be building a base between 170 and 180. The stock really has been broken all year."

Bryn said the China story is the key to the stock. Bryn suggested selling the September 200 calls for $11.70 for a 6½% yield in 3 months, not even annualized.

Bryn said PLTR, which was touted by Joe Terranova this week, "is like the ultimate AI company, right, before AI was cool, right." Bryn thinks the company is "building a massive moat."

Judge mentioned the big day by ADBE, which Kari Firestone touted this week but Joe Terranova did not (he was due for a miss).

Judge again aired a clip of Brad Gerstner this week suggesting software stocks have bottomed. "I totally agree, uh, uh, with Brad," said Jim Lebenthal. "Adobe looks pretty tasty here."

Kevin Simpson sold calls on TJX.

Jim defended AMZN vs. WMT, he's "not that jazzed up" about WMT and doesn't own it, but he doesn't see the 2 companies as a pairs trade. Kevin Simpson agreed that "it's not an either (pronounced EYE-ther)/or trade." He said he likes both stocks.

For the 2nd day in a row, Bryn got to talk up RBLX. Bryn said it's a "sticky company" and again said she added at 31 after the recent market "overreaction."

Jim said he doesn't think 75 is agressive for C. Jim said, "There is no good reason why Citi trades at a discount to tangible book value." (Other than the fact it always trades that way.)

Rob Sechan said "a lot of people were hoping the yield curve would start to steepen and take pressure off net interest margins, pulling money from money funds and back into deposits, and that's just not happened."

Judge actually asked Bryn when everyone will start buying PYPL (snicker) again. Josh Brown was the last to try, probably last year. Bryn acknowledged "Venmo is such a juggernaut," but "there's no interest in the stock." Bryn thinks people view it as "somewhat of a commodity," and she doesn't want to own something that other people don't seem to want to buy.

Judge said B of A reinstated a buy in COP, a move cheered by Kevin Simpson. Bryn said we'll continue to see M&A in energy.

Kate Rooney joined the crew at Post 9 to relate how the dollar strength and some ETF arbitraging have been a headwind for bitcoin.

Kate said Keith Gill "appears to have increased his position in GameStop," by selling calls.

Karen: Elon deserves the money but is ‘kind of’ holding a gun to shareholders’ heads

On Thursday's (6/13) Halftime Report, CNBC's Phil LeBeau talked about Elon's projections on the shareholder vote.

"It's triggering a relief rally," Phil said.

"I think everyone's ready for this to be over," said Bryn Talkington, who said what's "frustrating" to Musk supporters is that he took this compensation in options.

"I do think it's absurd. Um, I think it will pass," and people can "move on," Bryn said.

Josh Brown said it sounds like "an outrageous amount of money," but you have to "weigh it against the market cap growth." Josh said it initially passed "without a lot of kerfuffle."

Jim Lebenthal, though, suggested that this pay controversy is actually good for TSLA. "I suspect you actually don't wanna get back to focusing on the fundamentals," Jim said, because it's trading at "56 times next year's earnings" and estimates "have been coming down massively."

Jim and Bryn discussed whether TSLA is a "car company" or a "growth company," a long-running conversation on CNBC for a decade.

On Fast Money, Guy Adami said TSLA is a "challenged company at best" and that if the stock bounces on the pay package, he'd fade.

Bonawyn Eison said TSLA would have an "existential crisis" if Musk didn't get this pay package.

Karen Finerman said "I think he should get it," but "I hate the dynamic of him sort of, you know, holding a, holding a gun to shareholders' head."

Jim says time of rate cut ‘doesn’t matter’ to markets (a/k/a elongating our bond yields)

Jim Lebenthal started off Thursday's (6/13) Halftime Report saying "I'm not sure I'm gonna place really any importance at all on what the Fed said yesterday."

Jim said the Fed will just be data dependent, and "Nobody that I know, including me, thinks that there's gonna be a rate cut before September. Or in June. That's a long, long runway."

Jim concluded, "I think, and my firm thinks, we're gonna get 1 cut in September, another in December, and then we're gonna do alternating meetings from there."

Jason Snipe offered, "I don't necessarily believe that the economy needs cuts."

Josh Brown said "it's very simple" what professionals should be advising: "Get out of cash."

Jim actually said of rate cuts, "The markets really don't care at this point in time. September, December. Doesn't matter. This economy is strong."

Guest host Frank Holland brought up cyclicals; Jim complained about how "I feel like Mr. Cyclical." Then Jim brought up "TSA passenger counts ... people are traveling like crazy."

Bryn Talkington's remote connection had a lot of trouble; once she got going, Bryn advised being "really careful" about cyclicals and not employing a "rifle shot approach"; Bryn predicted the economy would be "slowing later on in the year."

Bryn said, "The clear trend still is in tech. That's just like as clear as the day is long."

Apparently agreeing with Bryn, Jim suggested the Mag 7 is up 10% in the last week and has a market cap of about $12 trillion, so that $1.2 trillion increase "has to come from somewhere."

Josh Brown questioned, "You don't think that could just be money coming out of the $6 trillion that went into money market funds last year." Jim said, "Of course, it could be." Frank said money market totals are "actually growing."

Josh said, "If they start to drop rates, you're gonna see a rush into certain types of bonds where people say, 'OK, let me elongate (snicker) the 4½ percent that I can get and not, you know, worry so much about the 5½ that's on offer right now. Let me lock in."

Kristina Partsinevelos reported on AVGO's split and market cap and AVGO's conservative guidance. Jason Snipe cited the capex in the AI space and said "we're in the very early innings of this trend." Bryn Talkington said the QQQ is "such a great way to play AI at this point (sic last 3 words redundant)." (This writer is long QQQ.)

Josh Brown once again talked up GLW, he said "the stock's barely down" after a downgrade.

How much money did Tim Cook spend on a video telling rich people that new AAPL products will be a tiny bit better than current ones; couldn’t that cash have helped out some struggling families?

Guest host Frank Holland on Thursday's (6/13) Halftime Report called PARA's deal situation a "major Hollywood drama," when there's no drama in it.

Jim Lebenthal said he's "glad the SkyDance deal went away," calling it an "incredibly hare-brained scheme." Jim admitted PARA has been a "terrible stock" and it's "my fault" for staying in it. Jim even said Shari Redstone "doesn't seem to be acting rationally." But he'll "stick around for a little bit longer."

Jim talked up GM buybacks and said the "5 times" multiple should at the very least be "7 times."

Josh Brown predicted "expanding margins" and a "larger store footprint" now that SHAK has hired the guy who was running Papa John's.

Josh said at Sweetgreen, "you have to ask them for a napkin ... it's a very weird situation."

Jason Snipe said he still likes NFLX, and "I think it takes out 700." (This writer is long NFLX.)

Frank tried to reach Bryn Talkington on RBLX but, as happened earlier in the show, Bryn was disconnected. Minutes later, Bryn connected and said that in the last quarter, RBLX tumbled from 42 to 30 when the market "overreacted." Bryn said she added at 31 and expects to see it get back to 42. Frank questioned the RBLX business model of kids having to ask their parents for money to buy the games.

Joe Terranova, utterly dominant this week with his spectacular AAPL post-earnings call, was on Closing Bell guest hosted by Santoli. Joe said he doesn't think the Fed is the risk to markets; the risk is that "the AI and tech story falls apart."

Suddenly, it’s Joe vs. Andrew for Call of the Year

On Monday, this page indicated we wanted to hear more from Andrew Left, who took part in the Halftime Report last week.

Long after that suggestion was posted, we realized we forgot to include exactly why we want to hear more from Andrew. (Yes, he's a humorous fellow, but that's not the whole reason.)

And it has nothing to do with GME.

It's because Left on Friday (6/7) (see below) was asked by Judge to "assess" the stock market and responded, "Everything's just fine. The economy's great, the stock market's great."

That's an extraordinary answer. Incredibly simply put. And quite possibly, an absolutely correct outlook for owning stocks in 2024.

About 99% of the time, panelists or guests on the show parse their response like Hank Kimball, you know, "Oh Broadcom's inventories were down 3% and the return on equity was 7% above the year over year quarter and oh by the way the multiple is such and such so ... I think you should be cautiously optimistic".

What if Andrew's comment — rather than the trading-the-RSI-or-Mag-7-P.E.-ratio-every-10-days mumbo jumbo we often hear — is exactly how retail investors should view the markets? Just be long, it'll be a good year, don't overthink it.

We're thinking, Left's throwaway comment may just be the Call of the Year.

Except that within 2 business days, it was somehow superseded by Joe Terranova's 2nd spectacular post-earnings trading call on a tech giant, a move that seems to be cementing this market as another potentially narrow Mag 7 type of year.

The technical accuracy of Joe's post-earnings predictions for AAPL and NVDA are astonishing. But more important seems to be the notion that the market can't help but look to these stocks as the leaders.

2024 is about halfway over. We'll see how this plays out.

Weiss says it’s ‘crazy’ that the market ‘keeps going up’

As Judge was hanging out in The Golden State on Wednesday (6/12) preparing for his post-Fed chat with Jeffrey Gundlach on Closing Bell, Frank Holland guest hosted Wednesday's Halftime Report and asked the panel for predictions.

Anastasia Amoroso, who hasn't been on the show for a while but whose super-sharp shoes put on a show at Post 9 (Judge and Weiss always wear sneakers), said the rally is "looking quite exuberant" as we're hitting some "overbought technical levels." Anastasia said Powell comments may be "more constructive" this time, but we're "certainly not" going to hear a cut announcement at this meeting.

Steve Weiss said there's "crazy stuff going on in the market right now," which is that it "just keeps going up."

First Weiss said it's "all multiple expansion," then he said, "It's really not just multiple expansion."

Weiss suggested there could be election risk of some kind brewing.

Kari Firestone said the market loves that inflation is cooling even "a little bit."

Joe Terranova said he's "always" believed that we'd get "a cut" with a "real" possibility of a 2nd cut. "There's a clear disinflationary trend that's in place," Joe said.

Joe said that assessing the market is about "respecting the prevailing trend." Joe also said the '70s is the "wrong analogy" for inflation; rather, this is 94-96. "This feels so much, 2024, to me like '96," Joe said.

Steve Liesman said Jerome Powell will be "happy about this morning's report." Steve said the Fed will tick down the expectations of rate cuts in 2024 from 3 to 2, something Frank Holland clarified.

Jeffrey Gundlach says ‘our institutions are falling apart’

A couple hours after Wednesday's (6/12) Halftime Report, Jeffrey Gundlach, hosting Judge in L.A., said Jay Powell was "remarkably vague" in the Q&A session. "He used the word 'balanced' a lot of times," Jeffrey said. (This review was posted overnight Wednesday/Thursday.)

Jeffrey stated "Implicitly, what we have here, is a growing acceptance of a higher baseline inflation rate."

He said he is "less confident" of 1 cut this year.

At the end of their conversation, Jeffrey delved into politics. He said of the Biden administration, "When you glue constituents together, they're not monolithic. And they don't always agree with each other," citing the war in Gaza.

Jeffrey continued: "How many times do you read, 'Our institutions are falling apart'?" Jeffrey said he was talking about it 15 years ago, but now people are talking about it "out in the open."

"People don't believe in churches anymore. People don't believe in the Justice Department to the extent that they used to. ... I don't think there's any one source of this ... so much wealth inequality ... people are starting to realize that they're being ignored by what they used to think was the establishment. It's just a lot like 1968," Jeffrey said.

Back to the Fed, Steve Liesman on Wednesday's Fast Money said "it was a dovish morning followed by what you might call a hawkish afternoon." Karen Finerman asked Steve whether the CPI print or Powell's hawkish tone was "more meaningful." Steve utterly punted on that one.

Steve joked about the "shelf life of a Scaramucci" when discussing the Fed's dot plots.

Weiss implies the market doesn’t really understand how bad the consumer is

The big trade on Wednesday's (6/12) Halftime Report was that Steve Weiss bought more NVDA.

Weiss said it's "extremely liquid" (snicker) and it's an opportunity for "exposure on a trading basis."

Weiss said it was an "easy one to get into." Guest host Frank Holland questioned how it's "easy" given that Weiss minutes earlier was complaining about multiple expansion leading the market.

Frank also said Torsten Slok is warning that if NVDA declines, the market will take a hit. Joe Terranova said the difference between the S&P and equal weight performance is the widest in "nearly 30 years."

Anastasia Amoroso claimed there's "a lot of broadening" happening globally and the market would be "OK" if NVDA hadn't delivered.

Kari Firestone bought AVGO without really saying anything new about the company that isn't heard on the show about twice a week.

Weiss has also rebought UBER. (This writer is long UBER.) Weiss again said the UBER downdraft was because of the loss. Weiss admitted "I am concerned about the consumer" but he bought the stock because "it doesn't matter what shape the consumer is in. It matters what the market thinks the shape of the consumer (sic grammar)." And if it's "a more dovish Fed" on Wednesday, then consumer stocks will rise, Weiss said.

Joe said Weiss' UBER buy is a "great" trade and that the selloff was because of "the loss of profitability" (translation: not the Elon nonsense that Brad Gerstner was talking about a day ago). Joe said, "I think Uber goes a lot higher."

Frank brought up Brad Gerstner's pro-software call. Anastasia said, "I couldn't agree more," explaining, "Software relative to semis is just extremely cheap." Joe cast doubt on ADBE but suggested PLTR "first and foremost," plus MSFT and CDNS, though Joe admitted "I missed it" in CDNS. Kari said she disagrees with Joe on ADBE. Kari likes CRM.

Joe affirmed that the JOET has exposure to LEN, DHI and NVR, but "you have to accept interest rate volatility" in that space. Kari said NEE is "very attractive."

Santoli told Frank the market was having a "rational tension release trade (snicker)."

Anastasia said there are opportunities in the big banks. Joe said the JOET added 3 regional banks in April. Joe said the strength in financials has been in insurance and private equity, he mentioned KKR and Apollo.

Terranova on fire! Joe nails AAPL $200 weeks after NVDA $1,000

Judge's Halftime Report Tuesday (6/11) was so chock-full of material, we couldn't stop typing — and yet the biggest news actually happened a day earlier.

Joe Terranova on Monday said AAPL has "the type of momentum that most likely propels the stock above $200 at some point this afternoon or in the coming days."

It didn't happen that afternoon — but it sure happened on Tuesday.

With his pair of sensational and jaw-droppingly accurate post-earnings-trade calls recently in NVDA and AAPL, 2 stocks that are quite possibly defining the 2024 trade right at this moment, Joe has rocketed to the top of the Call of the Year list.

On Fast Money, Guy Adami admitted that on Monday he sensed "a bit of a double-top" in AAPL, but "that clearly wasn't the case."

Guy's colleagues were mostly in the disbelief camp. Dan Nathan shrugged that "I did not see a buncha analysts come up and upgrade the stock."

Karen Finerman said she was "kind of underwhelmed" by the WWDC and stated, "now we have a hardware multiple, a software multiple and I guess an AI multiple." Karen said she has a "tiny position" in AAPL that is "so small, it's effectively short."

Steve Grasso predicted next week or the week after for AAPL, "a bunch of analysts upgrading their, their sales numbers, their numbers on upgrade cycle, and they'll chase it."

CLF is trading for $15 a share

Speaking of AAPL, Josh Brown, touting D.A. Davidson's slogan that "AI now stands for Apple Intelligence (snicker)," said at the top of Tuesday's (6/11) Halftime Report that AAPL "grasped what was necessary" and "seized the opportunity," though the WWDC video "had a higher budget than some Netflix shows."

Brown did claim that AAPL is "supercharging (snicker) Siri."

Brenda Vingiello said AAPL has the "whole picture" of people's data that other tech giants don't have.

Steve Weiss, who Judge said bought AAPL at 190 in May, shrugged, saying he didn't hear from Judge that anyone is upgrading AAPL, rather, "they've all had buys on it."

Weiss said the issue for the stock is that "you're paying a premium" for gains that are coming from "financial engineering."

Judge said D.A. Davidson "did upgrade the stock" and was previously "neutral."

Weiss said he'll stay in the stock even though "it's still expensive." After trying a joke about Apple's innovation, Weiss said it's the company's "installed base that's worth a premium."

Josh said he agrees that during a recent slump, AAPL kept itself afloat with buybacks, but Josh seemed to think Weiss was underestimating the "first true i- iPhone upgrade cycle in years" that will require newer models. Weiss said he was making that point himself and agrees, "Yes, it will drive a new upgrade cycle across their devices."

Josh touted the presentation on "on-device compute" that will allow AAPL users to avoid having data warehoused with a 3rd-party; "I forget what the guy's name was, the one that looked like Bill Ackman jumping down staircases."

Asked, basically, whether AAPL's event was a big deal, Brad Gerstner, who was at the studio with Judge at 1 Market in San Francisco, said it was a "natural step in the evolution" of AI. But Brad noted the head starts of other tech giants in this field.

Brad observed, "Noticeably absent was everybody but OpenAI," so he suspects the "integration going on with OpenAI is deeper than what we heard about yesterday."

Brad said he added to his AAPL position.

Weiss questions why Brad can fault Meta’s governance while praising Tesla’s

A real donnybrook got underway on Tuesday's (6/11) Halftime Report when star guest Brad Gerstner, who joined Judge at 1 Market in San Francisco, said TSLA shareholders "want Elon to get paid" and decried people "Monday morning quarterbacking" to use to the courts rather than shareholders to "undo" Musk's compensation.

Brad didn't seem to care as much as Judge did that Nelson Peltz supports the Musk pay package, but Brad said it's a "travesty" that the pay package is even at risk.

Steve Weiss took part in the conversation remotely and immediately took issue with Brad's assessment of the subject. Weiss said shareholders are free to approve the pay package. Then Weiss brought up one of Brad's previous topics.

Weiss said it's "interesting" that Mark Zuckerberg would "get called out for overspending and poor governance," yet "somebody who practices poor governance, who has a board in the back pocket, you know, it's OK to own that stock." (Note: Brad sometimes cares about certain things at certain times, and not as much as at other times.)

Weiss also defended the Delaware judge (lower case "judge"), saying "there's a rule of law" in these matters and "it's not political." Weiss added, "She just said, 'Do it the right way.' So it's not disgraceful. That's what America's about."

Brad told Weiss, "It's well-documented, the conflict the judge had here ... I don't believe it's the rule of law," and the judge needed the "art of gymnastics frankly to come up with this ruling ... totally disagree with your opinion."

Weiss insisted on telling Judge that Nelson Peltz is still "biased" toward Musk even though Peltz doesn't own the shares.

Weiss disagrees with Brad on reason for UBER’s selloff

Brad Gerstner, in San Francisco with Judge at 1 Market for Tuesday's (6/11) Halftime Report, took issue with maybe Judge's favorite subject of the last year, that Brad is a "Google naysayer" (Brad's term Tuesday), while Brad protested "It was my largest position for like over a decade."

Regarding other tech giants, Brad said Andy Jassy is in "animal mode" in terms of running things efficiently.

Brad said of UBER, "I think the reason the stock sold down is because Elon said he was gonna launch robotaxi, uh, you know, in August of this year." Brad said UBER would be over 80 "but for that announcement by Elon." (This writer is long UBER.)

Steve Weiss sold UBER on May 23, he said it was for several reasons, that it's "pretty well" correlated with other tech names and also levered to the consumer.

Weiss repeated what he said days ago, that UBER sold down because of the quarterly loss. (He didn't mention options this time.) Brad told Weiss that "100% with certainty," the reason UBER is under pressure is because of Elon's robotaxi. Weiss said "we're gonna have to disagree," saying the "big gap down" came from the earnings report.

Weiss and Josh Brown for some reason were quibbling over whether UBER is "cheap" and at one point said each other's name a bunch of times, "Josh, Josh, Josh"; "Steve, Steve, Steve."

Liz joins Closing Bell set just days after wedding

Late into Tuesday's (6/11) Halftime Report, Brad Gerstner told Judge that the "smart money" is buying software.

Citing tax cuts from 2017, Brad said the election will have "huge consequences" on stock market direction.

Josh Brown bought more GLW and mentioned a "breakout in progress."

Days after getting married, Liz Young Thomas showed up on Closing Bell with an adjusted last name.

David Faber turned up on Tuesday's Fast Money to talk about what should be one of everyone's least favorite subjects, National Amusements and Paramount Plus. Guy Adami said David is "iconic" and one of the 4 on some kind of "Mount Rushmore."

We. Want. Left.
We. Want. Left.
We. Want ... (a/k/a actually had a day without CNBC reporting the GME price)

On Monday (6/10), Judge stationed himself at Cupertino to ... interview everyone else remotely in the greater New York City area.

Well, OK, that's not quite what happened. (But it's not like Judge's location enabled him any scoops.)

Josh Brown said at the top of a sleepy Halftime Report episode that what AAPL watchers were hoping to see is a "new source of growth"; if not, Josh predicted a stock "yawn" or "correction."

(In fact, Dan Nathan on Fast Money called it a "snoozefest.")

(Guy Adami likened WWDC to a "Happy Days" first-season episode in which Richie and Potsie learn that the buildup to a party might be bigger than the event itself, which "really sucks.")

(Tim Seymour proclaimed, "Apple jumped the shark 2 years ago.")

Dan Ives, also in Cupertino (he kinda has to be, to maintain his street cred), actually told Judge this is a "Top 3 (snicker) moment" in the history of AAPL.

Ives even predicted Monday's event would be a "jaw-dropper" (snicker).

Amy Raskin said she wants to hear how AAPL as the "gatekeeper" of all this wealthy client base can monetize AI.

Joe Terranova, making a prediction that so far has yet to come true, said AAPL has "the type of momentum that most likely propels the stock above $200 at some point this afternoon or in the coming days."

We were thinking that the guy Judge should've had on was Andrew Left, a humorous fellow who refreshingly returned to the show last week to do battle with the GME kingpin (at least, Judge suggested Mr. Kitty was watching the show and wondered what Left would say to him directly); quite frankly, Judge should be begging Mr. Left to come on the show and tell a few jokes.

So Josh is basically saying that the more customers are on one security platform, the less likely they are to be hacked

While Dan Ives may have been carried away with AAPL's naptime presentation, Josh Brown on Monday's (6/10) Halftime Report gushed about how CRWD's "network" in which the company supposedly can prevent other customers from spillover hacks once one customer is attacked is somehow like the platform of "Facebook" or "Google." (Wonder if Ticketmaster is also on the platform and can prevent people from being late to the Yankee game if they bring a laptop.)

Joe Terranova owns CRWD both "personally" and in the ETF, according to Judge, who didn't mention whether either one was "equal weight.". Joe said it's "one of the better trades I've had in the last several years," he got it "around $120." (Tip: Joe's cost basis has no affect on direction of the stock.)

PANW fan Dan Ives shrugged that this is only a "pit stop for Palo Alto" in what's going to be "an F1 race they win."

Josh Brown said cybersecurity is in a "guaranteed secular bull market."

‘Superman II,’ by the way, was better than ‘Superman’

Much of Monday's (6/10) Halftime Report centered on AAPL (Zzzzzzz). Josh Brown opined that he really knows the NVDA split doesn't actually accomplish anything ... but ... "The smartest people realize that if enough people care about splits, it is a tailwind for a stock even if it shouldn't be."

Joe Terranova said people have been drawing comparisons to other Big Tech splits (that would be Jim Lebenthal, who wasn't on Monday's show), but, "I don't think there is one that you can really compare this stock to," because NVDA is in a unique place.

Joe said "the expectations are remarkably high" for AMD. Joe said he'd rank "Avago" No. 2 behind NVDA. Moments later, Amy Raskin said she's going to buy AVGO soon, probably by trimming NVDA.

Amy said she's holding SNOW, "I'm not anxious to sell it," even though "it's not working" and "the whole space isn't working."

"I think it's goin' to a hundred," Brown said of UBER. (This writer is long UBER.)

Joe said LUV is down 47% in the last 3 years. "Southwest is doing something clearly wrong," Joe said.

Other than ‘The Godfather,’ not many (Some say ‘Star Wars,’ but that’s incorrect)

Judge's Halftime Report session on Friday (6/7) with Andrew Left, who hasn't been on the show in ages, included an unexpected treat.

Usually, CNBCers parse their market outlooks with more qualifiers than Hank Kimball. Left, though, breezily told Judge, "Everything's just fine. The economy's great, the stock market's great."

Left apparently only has an issue with 1 stock, GME. "They made the stock into a motion picture. How many movies has Part II been as good as Part I? Not many, but we'll see," Left told Judge.

Gambler nation: Greg Zuckerman and Andrew Left have the same take on Roaring Kitty’s livestream

Judge actually opened Friday's (6/7) Halftime with a Roaring Kitty update, supplied by Dom Chu.

But then Judge in the 4th minute brought in Andrew Left, who hasn't been on the show in years, and immediately ran into a clarification.

Judge introduced Left as saying Left shorted GME in 2021 and took a "100% loss." Left immediately protested, "I didn't have a hundred percent loss. I was asked if I lost, and I said to the reporter, 'Yes, a hundred percent, I lost.' It was not a hundred-percent loss."

"Oh, OK, I got you, OK, so a hundred percent, you lost," Judge said, before bringing up the "angry mob" that "harassed" Left; Judge wondered why Left would short the stock again.

Left joked, "After my first marriage, I said, I'll never do that again. And, uh, certainly I'm happy with the 2nd." He said "sometimes you go back in" and said his current GME short is a "trade" and "not a big position." Left also said "the dynamic is different this time than it was back in, uh, 2021."

Judge said that GME backers years ago, according to Left, "hacked into your personal accounts" and "ordered pizza to your house late at night."

But Left actually claimed Friday that "traders have evolved (snicker) over the past 3 years" and actually "understand (snicker) short selling" and there isn't going to be the same "jihad" as a few years ago.

Judge noted Left is going "public" and asked if Left thought about keeping it quiet. Left explained that it was a "complete mistake" and that he got a call from a reporter "from Bloomberg, maybe" who asked him about the GME move, and Left "casually" told the reporter, "Yeah I sold some." Then he had lunch and 3 hours later, someone told him, "You're short GameStop?" (Um, all he really had to do was say "Sorry, I have to decline to comment." But whatever.)

Judge asked Left about Left's skepticism that Roaring Kitty is self-financing his own trade. "I'm hoping to be wrong. But, this does not pass the smell test. ... I don't know where he would get the $200 million or $160 million ... something about it, something that just doesn't smell right," Left said.

Left said Keith Gill was "likable" in 2021 but now is "not that same person."

Judge said some people will say "it's rich" that Judge is having a conversation about potential market manipulation with a noted short seller "who with a group of short sellers was said to be investigated, um, by the feds for- for- for the issue."

Left said that in 20 years, he's never listed a position "without a reason behind it." Left said the current trade is all about Roaring Kitty posting an "unusually large position."

Judge asked for the status of any investigatory cloud "that was hanging over you and some other short sellers." Left said, "Obviously, you know, with anything, I can't discuss, you know, I don't discuss any of that."

Judge persisted, asking Left if he's "worried, though, about being charged in, in whatever probe was, was front and center a couple or few years ago?"

Left said, "Anyone who goes and puts their opinions out in the public, uh, should be worried," because of "nebulous laws" about "people who comment on stocks."

Left a couple of times explained interest in GME as, "We have a nation of gamblers."

For a few moments while waiting for Mr. Kitty to start talking on YouTube, Judge turned to his panelists. "GameStop is total speculation," asserted Stephanie Link.

Jim Lebenthal said his concern with current GME trading is "the high potentiality that a lot of people are gonna lose money." Jim added, "There's something funny going on here."

Jason Snipe did say he appreciates the "interest" generated by the GME trade.

After Mr. Kitty started talking on YouTube, Judge asked Left for reax.

"It's an insult to your viewers' ears, it's an insult to the market," Left explained. "Whatever my bar was of expectations, he was lower than the bar."

Left said "In Ryan we trust" is Gill's premise.

"Maybe that'll be good enough. We'll have to see," Judge said.

On Fast Money, business reporter Greg Zuckerman echoed Left's assessment nearly word for word, observing that Gill "didn't really suggest what the turnaround play is. It's just a play on, on Cohen, who runs the company now."

Zuckerman even said, "We are a nation of gamblers."

But Zuckerman added, "It's kind of difficult to short GameStop."

Karen Finerman said she "watched some of it" and was "fascinated," but then, "I just couldn't believe what I was watching."

Liz is getting married!

Piling on to a stock that Josh Brown (who wasn't on Friday's show) has been touting recently, Jim Lebenthal on Friday's (6/7) Halftime Report said he's bought 3 tranches of AMZN since February, and, "This has now become a very big position for me."

Stephanie Link has been "taking profits" in AMZN, not because she thinks it's going down, but, as always, "because I'm up a lot." (Tip to viewers: Stocks don't care what someone's basis is.)

Citing the QQQ (this writer is long QQQ), Jason Snipe said of tech, "Clearly we're getting very close to overbought territory."

Judge said LYFT is getting upgrades, though he sounded skeptical about this being a "turning point week" for ride-share. Jason Snipe said, "I think Uber clearly has a lot more levers to pull."

Judge in Final Trades started with Liz Young. "Congratulations Liz Young! Big weekend! Liz is getting married this weekend," Judge explained.

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said of Siri, "It's so bad, it's unbelievable ... It is beyond an embarrassment."

No updates on what Carl really intends to do about his CZR stock

Jim Lebenthal, who for some reason has been expressing some kind of skepticism about NVDA for weeks, on Thursday's (6/6) Halftime Report advised people who don't own NVDA to just buy a small "toehold" position (he said "toehold" about 5 times), as he's been doing for 10 months.

Judge noted Jim wasn't buying at $1,200. Jim admitted "it was $423."

Judge opened the program airing a clip of Dean of Valuation (not sure how anyone earns that nickname) Aswath Damodaran saying a day ago on Closing Bell that "if you were designing the perfect momentum company from scratch, Nvidia would be it ... you're seeing one of the great momentum plays of all time."

Bill Baruch said he's continuing to manage his NVDA position "around that 7% mark." (Translation: Bill trims as it gets higher.)

Bill said the stock split is not "the only reason" NVDA is soaring, but when you see a $120 price vs. a $1,200 price, "it's much easier to buy it."

Bill bought more CRWD. He said it's "best of breed" and there could be "consolidation" in the space.

Addressing Elon Musk's wages, Bill actually said, "I wanna see him get paid." Bill said he's long TSLA from about 190 but he may be adding as he thinks it's "bottoming out."

Bill said UBER's slide is an "opportunity" and he's buying August 75 calls and selling August 85 calls. (This writer is long UBER.) We were surprised that someone is paying 70 cents for UBER 85 calls that Bill is selling that expire in a couple months. (You know what they say about being involved in options: IT'S. NOT. AN OPTION.) Judge said the stock is down 5% in a month. No one had an update on Weiss' claim a day ago that "insider trading is alive and well" based on UBER's price action ahead of earnings.

Bill sold CRM, "bad timing last week, I wanted to get rid of it."

Kevin Simpson said some people think AAPL's WWDC will be a sell-the-news event, but Kevin thinks it'll be the "beginning of a runway." Judge said KeyBanc is calling WWDC a sell-the-news event. Bill agrees with Kevin and sees AAPL having momentum "after" the event.

Bill explained how he's playing AAPL August 210 calls.

‘Wall of money’ on the way

Judge on Thursday's (6/6) Halftime Report said Savita has issued a "Read. My. Lips." note (snicker) and is touting large cap "value" (snicker).

"I think that she's got a point," said Kari Firestone, but Kari says that sector (if that's the right term) won't "turn" until money comes out of the AI trade.

Judge also said Goldman Sachs is talking about a "wall of money" (snicker) entering the market in the 2nd half. Jim Lebenthal said Savita's value names have been doing fine as companies, but the stocks have "sputtered" in the last couple months, and so, "I think what the market is trying to say is that these softer economic numbers may be something worse than that."

But Jim said Atlanta Fed GDP was boosted to 2.6.

Kevin Simpson bought more FCX and jumped on the weakness Tuesday.

Kevin said VZ has been "probably our worst performer for quite a few years" and isn't sure anyone should follow him in, but he's buying more, citing dividend in part.

Judge demanded to know why Kevin trimmed GS. Kevin said it's profit taking of a stock that's been "on fire."

Judge said WMT is a top pick at Oppenheimer. Kevin said it's "hitting on every single cylinder."

Kevin trimmed CSCO. Jim said he agrees with those concerns but suggested that a 2nd good earnings report could lift the stock.

Jim said DIS is in a "lull" but it's only "18 times forward earnings" and has "long-term catalysts in terms of streaming (snicker), in terms of ESPN and sports in general." Jim predicted 120 is "well within the next 12 months."

Virtu chief Doug Cifu suggests ‘woke’-ness from financial exchanges is wearing thin

Virtu chief Doug Cifu, the star guest of Wednesday's (6/5) Halftime Report who was interviewed in person by Bob Pisani for ETF Edge and also fielded questions from Judge, told Judge that Virtu opted against investing in the new Texas exchange, though Cifu called it a "good thing ultimately" despite the fact "it's gonna be a tough road to hoe in terms of listings" and there's been "a long line of competitors" who have tried it. (Sure. Remember when Brad Katsuyama was on "60 Minutes"?) (Remember when Frances Haugen was on "60 Minutes"? How's your META since then?)

Judge described Cifu's answer as "suggesting that you don't think this could be a viable alternative to either (pronounced EYE-ther, not EE-ther) the New York Stock Exchange or the Nasdaq."

"Now Scott I didn't exactly say that," Cifu protested, explaining the Texas folks will have to "innovate" as a trading venue, but "as a listings venue, it's gonna be a challenge."

Judge said that apparently fueling the Texas venture is that NYSE and Nasdaq regulations are considered "too onerous." Cifu said, "Yeah I mean I think there was a certain, uh, uh, sense that maybe Nasdaq went a little overboard in some of the, I'll call it woke-type of suggestions that they had for corporate boards and whatnot and perhaps the worm has, has turned."

Bob suggested "this may not be so much about wokeness as it is about competing for the very lucrative listing business."

Weiss didn’t note that AAPL also could’ve bought Paramount Global or Snapchat

Steve Weiss on Wednesday's (6/5) Halftime Report said he's immersed in tech now because "this is where the fundamentals continue to be the best."

Weiss rattled off tech winners such as ASML but suggested the "Achilles heel potentially" is that "valuation just doesn't matter." (Translation: Their sales might not be as good as some hope.)

Joe Terranova's got a new buy, the XLG. "I'm buying this because I have to (snicker) buy this," Joe said, citing the "narrowing in performance" of the stock market and the "simple fact" that the "megacaps are outperforming."

Joe once again lamented (as he's done a few times in the last year or two) that he's "equally weighted" either in his own portfolio or the JOET.

Kari Firestone stated, "Everybody was talking about the broadening of the market ... That has changed in the 2nd quarter. Part of that is the weakness in manufacturing."

Joe touted the AAPL buyback. Weiss told Joe that the size is historically big in terms of dollars but not "in terms of the percent of the company."

Judge wasn't impressed by that observation, telling Weiss that "the bottom line is they continue to buy back a lot of stock. We don't need to cut through the why, this, that, or percent vs. whatever."

Weiss suggested AAPL could've been better "stewards" of their capital by buying NFLX at $50 billion or possibly even NVDA a while back.

Weiss gushed that Jensen Huang keeps coming up with something new, "and I don't think it's expensive at all." Judge wondered if that means viewers can buy NVDA at $1,200. Weiss said he'd "wait" and advised, "I would not buy it here on the highs."

Kari Firestone "very much" likes META and suggests it might get dollars from people who "can't stomach (snicker) buying Nvidia."

Joe said, "The stock split is working for Nvidia. The stock split is working for Chipotle," and suggested META and MSFT might "follow suit."

Judge asked Weiss, "What are people supposed to buy?" if they're not in AI names. (That's a better question for Jenny Harrington, who's got all kinds of answers "under the surface" of the market.)

Joe pronounced CRWD "the clear leader in terms of cybersecurity holdings that you have (sic last 3 words redundant)."

Judge has been hearing worries about the consumer ‘for the last year’ (and markets are at all-time highs)

Judge on Wednesday's (6/5) Halftime Report said Oppenheimer is reaffirming UBER. (This writer is long UBER.)

Joe Terranova said he owns UBER personally and in the JOET and believes "the profitability comes back." Weiss said Dara could surprise again and the stock could climb, but he cautioned about the consumer; "Household credit card debt is at a high."

Judge shrugged, "I've heard about, you know, consumer concerns for the last year."

"But sometime they become reality," Weiss said.

"Maybe," Judge said.

Kari said the issue with UBER is whether it can maintain price hikes.

Weiss stated, out of the blue, "Insider trading is alive and well. Uber started trading down way in advance of the quarter being reported. And the only reason, as we know, is because it came with the negative number. So I'd like- you know Gensler was on before, why don't you take a look at something like that?" (See, if Steve were plugged into the options scene like the Najarians are (IT'S. NOT. AN. OPTION!!!!!!!!!), he would know whether there was any "unusual activity" (snicker) in that name.)

Joe affirmed Judge's assessment that Joe is buying MCK "high," one of the apparently numerous stocks he's buying because they didn't make it into the ETF. Joe said it's "never really gonna be a candidate for the quality-momentum strategy because it kind of has weak ROE and debt-to-equity scores." But he said revenue growth is "remarkably attractive."

Joe said LULU used to be "impervious" to consumer setbacks but now, "There's something clearly that's going on with the company." But Joe said analysts are still "completely in love" with LULU.

Not over yet: Josh accuses Jenny of ‘gaslighting’ the panel in fresh argument over SWK

When we tuned in to Tuesday's (6/4) Halftime Report, one thing we didn't count on was a fresh chapter in the famous SWK donnybrook between Josh Brown and Jenny Harrington.

Jenny on Tuesday talked about holding SWK but said not to expect a "home run."

Josh Brown, also on Tuesday's panel, tried to cut in, but then Jenny said, "Are you gonna apologize, Josh?"

"For what?" Josh wondered.

Jenny told Josh "I was right" about SWK back when they had a "major fight" over it. (That was in May 2023; top photo above is from that exchange.)

Josh replied, "You were wrong on things and so was I. Let's, let's, let's agree to disagree."

Jenny noted that when she mentioned buying SWK, Josh called it "the worst chart you'd ever seen." Brown said "it still is."

(For the record, a year ago, they were also talking about WHR, which Brown called "the worst chart I've ever seen in my life," then he said, "The good news is Stanley Black & Decker is actually worse than Whirlpool.")

Jenny on Tuesday said, "I have 11% return in a year." Josh said, "You're braggin' on 11%? Do you understand that the Nasdaq went up 50% last year and the S&P went up 25%? Why are you gaslighting us?"

(Jenny's "11%" claim is curious, because she touted the stock on May 18, 2023, when it was actually $83 — or same price as now. It does pay a dividend. As this page reported at year-end, SWK did surge last July and last December near 100, only to pull back.)

Josh wondered why SWK is trading below its 2018 levels and added, "This literally is the worst chart I've ever seen."

"Oh my God," Jenny said.

Jenny said SWK will pick up with a recovery in housing once rates are cut. Steve Weiss said Jenny and Josh should "dial it back a little bit."

Josh (partly) bails on LYV a couple weeks after shrugging off the Justice Dept. suit

Another debate barely took place on Tuesday's (6/4) Halftime Report as Jim Lebenthal protested Josh Brown's citing of falling oil prices as a market tailwind.

"Oil prices falling is not good," Jim said.

"Demand is not falling. Supply is increasing," Josh said.

Jim said "OPEC just held supply constant" and added, "Demand is not coming in anywhere near as expected globally, I mean that's just factual."

Josh is buying KDP. Josh said he and one of his research guys keep a list of "the best stocks in the market." He said KDP has done nothing for a long time and is now challenging resistance at 34-35 and Josh thinks it will break through.

Jenny Harrington has been holding off on consumer staples, including makers of soft drinks and snacks, because the GLP-1 drugs have given her "pause" about consumption. Josh responded that "the market prices them in," and "relatively quickly."

Brown sold TOST. Judge asked why. Brown cited "a huge rally after the earnings" but a "very disappointing" investor day last week.

Josh trimmed LYV, he said he bought in the 70s and sold half in the mid-90s, he can see "dead money" until a legal resolution nears, also he noticed "all the concert cancellations."

Brown said maybe J. Lo canceled her tour because of "stuff going on" in her relationship with Ben Affleck but "there also was almost no demand in some cities."

Jim feels ‘uneasy’ about the markets

It was a muted opening to what proved a fairly interesting show.

Josh Brown on Tuesday's (6/4) Halftime Report said he doubled his position in AMZN, a stock he has been talking up for weeks.

Citing the ever-popular enterprise value to EBITDA metric, Brown said it's far cheaper than it's been in "quite some time." He thinks it might be a leader in the 2nd half and wants to be well-positioned.

Steve Weiss responded, "I think you have time; I don't think you have to rush in to buy Amazon or anything here," again citing possible consumer headwinds.

Judge wondered why stocks are "weak" if yields are falling.

"Because the economy is, is showing cracks," said Jim Lebenthal. As a result, "I'm not buying anything right now," Jim said, though he touted Brown's AMZN purchase.

"I'm gettin' an uneasy feeling," Jim admitted. Probably because he's still waiting for that April correction to be as deep as he thought it was supposed to be.

Judge said Wolfe says tech earnings are too strong to be bearish. For an opinion on that view, Judge asked Jenny Harrington, "What do you think?"

Jenny said, "Well, I mean, you know what I think, right." Judge said, "Well, what you thought last week may not be what you think today."

Jenny said she was at a Digital Realty Trust presentation, and "the room was overflowing." Jenny downplayed stocks being up 10% this year as "superficially nothing" and claimed "beneath the surface, there's all sorts of opportunities being created." (Translation: How to rationalize not buying very many if any of Megacap Tech.)

Judge told Josh that B of A is reporting there's been "near record tech outflows" among clients and there have been "net sellers of U.S. equities for a 5th week." Josh shrugged, "I don't know, part of me feels like there's really no signal there, that data changes on a dime."

Judge said they're using the term of stock "fragility" (snicker) and asked Josh this time, "What do you think?" Instead of saying Judge already knows what he thinks, Brown said "most stocks in the market (sic last 3 words redundant) are extremely sensitive to interest rates" and if Megacap Tech doesn't deliver, it could be a "rocky ride."

Brown also said "all of the data is now pointing to a confirmation of 1 rate hike (sic) (uncorrected by Judge), and now we're back to debating if there's gonna be 2."

Judge said that's the "cut-on environment" that Brown was talking up a couple months ago.

Making an argument for tech, his new favorite thing, Weiss said "The Nasdaq (sic) is up 10-fold in the last 30 years, but the- I'm sorry, the S&P is up 10-fold, Nasdaq is up more than 20-fold in the last 30 years."

Even so, "Your gains are defined by your point of entry," Weiss said once again, ignoring they are equally defined by point of exit; for example, Weiss' gains in Dick's Sporting Goods would've been a LOT higher if he'd held on till now rather than unloading a couple times last year.

Joe & Adam seem to have trouble agreeing on things on Closing Bell

Bill Baruch joined Tuesday's (6/4) Halftime Report remotely, as he does about every couple of days, to tout his new buy of MTZ (Zzzzzzzz). He said we're seeing EPS guidance "lift up."

Bill also bought CB; Judge wondered if that's a "Berkshire thing." Bill said he wants insurance exposure, and "the name has broken out."

Judge said he finds Bill's sells more interesting but he had to talk about the buys first. One of the sells was MS; Bill said there's a "question now" about which sector will lead the business in the leadership transition.

(Later on Fast Money, Karen Finerman said she "got out of Morgan Stanley" and increased her "Citibank bet.")

Steve Weiss said the IPO market may not take off until "mid-2025." But Weiss said there's a "huge, huge pipeline" waiting to go.

Bill also sold CAT and TGT.

Judge said AXP is the best Dow stock this year. Jenny Harrington said it's a stock you can own "forever."

Weiss, who opines on NFLX about every other day, said it could be a "recession-resistant play." (This writer is long NFLX.)

Josh Brown said the "big question" for CRWD is whether it's ready for the $100 billion club. He doesn't quite think so, though he calls it the "acknowledged leader in cybersecurity."

Adam Parker at the top of Tuesday's Closing Bell told Judge that he had a "debate" with Joe Terranova a couple weeks earlier (no, not the one in February about underweighting/equal weighting Megacap Tech) about whether the "vacuum of information would be bearish or bullish." It sounds like Joe was on the bearish side (we didn't see this debate), but Adam thinks we might go higher.

Karen Finerman on Fast Money cited LULU's valuation and said she's "getting tempted" to buy. "This deserves a premium multiple," Karen said.

Weiss makes one of the best arguments against portfolio ‘diversifying’ we’ve heard on CNBC

Joe Terranova started off Monday's (6/3) Halftime Report predicting portfolio managers and speculators in June will "get a little bit more defensive, get a little bit more risk-adverse (sic meant 'averse')."

Joe suggested a "pivot" from more cyclical sectors and said people should think about health care.

Steve Weiss sold CAT, one of those stocks like DE that he's constantly buying or selling. He said he got into it as a trade to "broaden out the portfolio a little bit" while he's "very tech heavy," but then he wondered, what's the point of broadening out if he's already got the winners. (Which is basically what this page always says — if you've already chosen the best stock(s), why are you buying other ones just to boast about being "diversified"?)

Weiss said stocks are going down with yields going down; he thinks the consumer is pressured, "so I think it's time to be a little cautious."

Meanwhile, Brian Belski said "the trend is your friend" and the more talk of a June swoon, the more likely it doesn't happen. He does see a "secondary rotation" from Megacap Tech to the "next tier" such as AMD, AVGO and ORCL. Belski bought SPOT, DASH and PLTR and bailed on CRM.

Joe questioned Belski buying DASH. Belski said it's one of the "great concepts (snicker) within retail."

Amy Raskin said this is a market for "tactical trades" and said she agrees with Weiss on the consumer.

Judge said Krinsky says Mag 7 is vulnerable to a "catch-down" (snicker).

Weiss pays $250 for a ride home from the airport

Brian Belski on Monday's (6/3) Halftime Report revealed he sold HON but has bought UBER. (This writer is long UBER.)

Belski said that in the last couple years, when UBER's down, it's been a good time to buy.

Joe Terranova agreed and said "it's a perfect spot to buy."

Yet Steve Weiss doesn't own UBER and said it's because the consumer doesn't look great and Uber prices are too high. Weiss said he paid $250 for an Uber ride from JFK to New Jersey on Sunday night. Judge chuckled that he's seen on "social" that "JFK to the city is like 350," so it almost seems like Weiss got a good deal. Weiss said his flight got in "pretty late."

Meanwhile, Weiss sold VRT at 103, a "great sale," given where it's at Monday. But he bought more GXO, "the right kind of retail exposure."

Judge rattled off a bunch of software slumpers to Amy Raskin; Amy said she's not "jumping in" now because the charts look "very broken."

Joe said he'll stay with CRWD despite "very high" expectations, because "that's where the business investment is in cybersecurity."

Guy says meme stocks making ‘somewhat of a mockery of the market’

Dom Chu joined Monday's (6/3) Halftime Report to talk about the 49 stocks affected by a "trading glitch."

It reminded us of the time Judge was on air around the time of the Flash Crash and then spent months asking panelists if they can trust the market because of the Flash Crash. (How long ago was that.)

Dom said things are "fixed" and "resolved" before reading a laborious press release verbatim.

Dom said "these kinds of things can happen" when nearly all trading is electronic. (As if it's going back to open outcry.)

Brian Belski bought SBUX because everybody hates it and it's "really beaten up."

Amy Raskin owns and loves COST but noted "it's very expensive." Joe Terranova said it "needs a correction."

Judge said Mike Mayo raised his C target from 80 all the way up to 85. "We love the stock," Belski said.

Weiss said he bought India ETFs (INDY and SMIN) sometime last year when Jeffrey Gundlach was talking it up. Weiss said he's "surprised" India hasn't done better given that it's picking up supply lines from China.

Amy Raskin owns NTLA, she said it had good data over the weekend. Joe said "momentum is clearly lost" in ADSK and he wouldn't get excited about the pop.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said she'd like to buy DELL but will abide by the "3-day rule."

Guy Adami opined on GME/Roaring Kitty and said "it's extraordinarily unsavory" and "makes somewhat of a mockery of the market."

CNBC sics 2 staffers on fairly uninteresting Carl news

Judge waited 5 minutes into Friday's (5/31) Halftime Report to deliver his own scoop, that Carl Icahn owns "some stock" in CZR, that Carl likes the company and has no plans for activism.

Then Judge turned to Contessa Brewer, who said she had just been "playing phone tag" with Carl. (Why Judge and Contessa were each calling Carl at the same time, like 2 wide receivers ending up in the same pattern, we have no idea.) "When I got hold of him- and I just have a (sic) hung up with him Scott following your phone call with him," Contessa said, she found that her "takeaway" is that Carl thinks CZR is "undervalued" and "on fire."

Contessa suggested CZR and other casinos just might be "good value" right now.

Contessa said Carl said he's not in PENN.

Jim Lebenthal touted WYNN and expressed frustration about the stock and said casino managers including CZR are "killing it," even though the stock market doesn't "give a whit."

KSS a ‘disaster in a weird way’

Judge on Friday's (5/31) Halftime Report told Jenny Harrington that "Kohl's was a disaster" without noting that just a week ago (see below), Jenny announced that she put it in all the client accounts that didn't already have it.

Jenny on Friday responded, "I think Kohl's was a disaster in a weird way, similar to what- the way Dell was a disaster. Which is that the expectations were just too great."

Jenny said she's "OK" with KSS and is holding and will give it "2 more quarters." (As Jenny said a week ago, anyone who doesn't get "wishy washy" and doesn't bet against the consumer can put up long-term stock gains against literally anyone.)

Judge said KSS is down about 25% YTD; "looks bad until you look at LULU."

Rob Sechan said his LULU buy was "ill-timed." He said "we would be kidding ourselves" if his shop wasn't "entertaining" a tax-loss sale. Rob suggested "the competitive landscape has changed," citing Vuori. Nevertheless, Rob made LULU his Final Trade.

Sounds like grounds for liability with office door manufacturers

Rob Sechan opened Friday's (5/31) Halftime Report stating "I would expect volatility to continue" and that "there's fading momentum; there's fading breadth."

But, "We are certainly not bearish," Rob said, adding he's staying in buy-the-dip mentality.

Jenny Harrington suggested the market is like a person who unknowingly walks into a closed glass door, which she said she's done at her own office "an unfortunate amount of times."

Jim Lebenthal said "there are cross-currents all over the place" and that breadth, as Rob noted, has narrowed. But Jim said he's got faith (as he basically always does) that "the broadening will occur."

Brenda Vingiello said, "I think the case for bonds has become more attractive."

Rob says price hikes ‘behind’ MCD

Judge and Dee Bosa on Friday's (5/31) Halftime Report talked up the "nuclear winter" in enterprise software; Dee said it turned into an "apocalypse," and now it could be creeping into hardware such as DELL.

Jim Lebenthal shrugged off the impact of CRM on ORCL. "What's happening in the tech sector this week feels more like a giveback after a kind of blowoff top here," Jim said.

Jim said he added to ORCL a week ago Friday, "so yeah, I wish I had waited a week."

Judge said Bill Baruch put his CRM proceeds into COP. Bill joined remotely and praised the COP deal and said his energy exposure is just 9% and he wants to boost it. But Bill sold NUE.

Judge said JPM cut its SCHW target to 81. Jenny Harrington said that still suggests "14% upside."

Rob said he'd be "careful" with MCD; "everything has been driven- performance has been driven by price increases," and "we think those days are behind them."

Rob said he thinks consumers will continue to buy DECK. Another May winner for Rob was VST. Jim said any downdraft in GPC, a stock that's always recommended by Mario Gabelli (who doesn't come on the show anymore), is creating "great value."

Josh says Nelson is bragging on the golf course about his DIS trade

Taking up Judge's late-Wednesday scoop on Nelson Peltz, Josh Brown on Thursday's (5/30) Halftime Report said that Nelson on the golf course is telling people that the stock has fallen from 130 because he lost the proxy battle and the reason it ran from 85 to 130 is because he demanded cost cuts and that the company be "more serious" about content.

"This is gonna take years to fix," Stephanie Link asserted, adding that the $5.5 billion cost-cutting will climb to $8-$9 billion.

(Actually, we'd argue with the word "fix" ... what is Iger going to "fix"? Disney+? The only way to "fix" Disney+ is to drop it and instead license all the content to Netflix.) (This writer is long NFLX.)

"He has to spend a ton of money on streaming," Stephanie said. Judge noted "they expect streaming to be profitable (snicker) later this year."

Brenda Vingiello is long DIS. She's staying with it, explaining "Bob Iger's plan has yet to play out."

Kevin Simpson said if DIS gets back to 85 or 90, he'll buy it and so will Peltz.

Jenny was buying KSS a week ago for the portfolios that didn’t already have it

Thursday's (5/30) Halftime Report curiously gave a soundbite mention to KSS.

Curious, because Jenny Harrington was trying to talk it up less than a week earlier.

Stephanie Link on Thursday called the stock a "no touch" that she wouldn't buy.

Yet on Friday May 24, Jenny said, "Thinking about Kohl's, right, and I actually added it to the portfolios that didn't already own it, so thinking about Kohl's and thinking about what kind of consumer that is, it's really hard ... "

Jenny went on to say that by focusing on the long term and not betting against the consumer and not getting "wishy washy," she'll put her returns up against ANY investor.

Josh is lukewarm on the Mag 7

Brenda Vingiello opened Thursday's (5/30) Halftime Report saying CRM was experiencing "a little bit of an overreaction on the downside, honestly."

Brenda even said the profit margin improvement was "phenomenal," but it's reflective of how high tech expectations are.

Brenda said "we are sticking with our position here" in CRM and indicated she might be interested in buying if it drops more.

Bill Baruch joined remotely to say he sold CRM because it's potentially "dead money" for weeks or months.

Josh Brown said Brenda is right about expectations and that the fear with the CRM report is that the headwinds extend everywhere in enterprise software.

Stephanie Link talked about how semiconductor companies are going gangbusters with AI but software companies are not. Josh then wondered, "If the software companies aren't making money from this though, doesn't that put future semiconductor sales at risk?" Stephanie somehow said "No."

Soberly assessing the stock market's high fliers, Josh said, "The forward tech P.E. is definitely a concern. The last time it was 30 was like, uh, 2002."

Even pointing to NVDA and AAPL, Brown said, "I'm not looking for these stocks to lead the next leg higher. ... It's just hard for me to understand how Nvidia's gonna add another half a trillion in valuation, for example. Um, or why Apple is gonna blow through 200, for example."

But, on the lookout for the next big gainer, Josh pointed out DELL and GLW are names that have taken off in the enthusiasm for the cloud/data center space.

Judge promised "good guests" from WWDC on June 10.

Santoli can be more candid about the Fed than Liesman can

Steve Liesman delivered breaking news on Thursday's (5/30) Halftime Report, stating John Williams offered a "pretty benign outlook" about inflation.

Judge said it sounds like "Williams is making the case for cuts sometime this year."

The sharp assessment came much later though from Santoli, who said Williams was "almost explicitly going after his predecessor, Bill Dudley, who is out there on the tape saying, you know, 'Policy's not restrictive right now,' and 'maybe the neutral rate is 5% or, you know, including inflation.'"

Josh says WBD could rally if it loses NBA rights

Kevin Simpson on Thursday's (5/30) Halftime Report said he is trimming MCD and said Josh Brown was right to sell it a month ago.

"Fast food isn't as cheap as it used to be," Simpson said, citing the company's recent revelation of price increases since 2019. Josh said the company is sticking franchisees with a $5 value meal that some franchisees will lose money on.

Meanwhile, Josh suggested WBD might have a "relief rally" if it loses NBA rights, which would be a "shame," but it's a single-digit stock price and they have to care about costs. (Perhaps Disney+ can bid for it.)

Kevin Simpson bought more JPM. He thought there was a market "overreaction" to Jamie Dimon's comments. Kevin also bought HON and FCX and MRK, which Joe T. (maybe personally or maybe ETF-y) has also been talking up.

Kevin would look for "bigger pullbacks" before buying UNH.

Brenda Vingiello bought a "small position" in LLY on a "slight pullback" in April.

Brenda bought PLD, citing companies' need for warehouses related to ecommerce. Brenda trimmed WM.

Josh said PFE is "getting really good" at cost-cutting.

Judge actually calls in to Fast Money to deliver Nelson Peltz/DIS scoop

On Wednesday's (5/29) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova said the COP acquisition of MRO is a "good deal."

Jim Lebenthal offered that oil is "consistently" around $80, and Jim once again touted the price of nat gas.

But Joe said that relying on the spot price of oil for making energy investments is "the wrong thesis to have." Joe, in fact, suggested energy's direction is contingent on the election. Joe said a Republican outcome would provide "far more incentive to increase production, lowering the price of oil itself."

Jim countered that "energy stocks did poorly under the Trump administration." Joe said yes, "That's exactly what I'm saying."

Jim is still wondering when DIS is going to wrap up the Hulu (snicker) thing. Jim indicated there doesn't seem to be a DIS catalyst until earnings (which, Jim didn't say, probably won't be a catalyst either).

Hours later on Fast Money, Judge dialed in with news of Nelson Peltz's DIS sale and said Peltz may be out of the picture for the company, but the DIS succession (snicker) issue "remains unresolved."

Joe opened his MRK commentary saying (as all CNBCers tend to do) "it's about 4½ percent off the all-time high."

Jim says only the NVDA blowout is keeping the market up

Even with market indexes near record highs, not everyone's convinced.

Early on Wednesday's (5/29) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal said "rates are weighing on the market right now" and then stated, "Let's face it, if we hadn't had the Nvidia blowout earnings last week, um, the whole market would be down."

"This is not a very healthy market right now," Jim said, adding it's a "wait-it-out period."

Even Nvidia's strength was being questioned. Judge said Josh Brown (who wasn't on Wednesday's show) is saying in a note (he apparently has to do notes as well as TV appearances) that NVDA's gains are "starting to seem way overdone."

Jim said of NVDA, "I've seen nothing like this in my lifetime," a stock going up 800% in 2 years with the multiple going down. He's staying long because of the split. Jim even made NVDA his Final Trade, prompting Judge to mock Jim's pre-earnings suggestion that the gains were already priced in.

Joe Terranova at the top of the show said he made "personal sales" in MS, V and MA; he said it's not really about the companies but the "macro conditions and the overall exposure that I have (Zzzzzzz)."

However Joe isn't selling GS; it has "further appreciation ahead."

Stephanie Link owns FTNT (but not NVDA).

Judge said Closing Bell will be live at WWDC on June 10.

Weiss’ instincts were correct on DKS; he shouldn’t have bailed last year after one bad earnings report

Judge on Wednesday's (5/29) Halftime Report noted the bad day of AAL.

Jim Lebenthal said he thinks it's an "American Airlines-specific problem" and cited passenger traffic. "The airlines look good," Jim asserted.

But Joe Terranova suggested AAL is a "read-through on the bifurcation that's going on in the economy right now," stating DAL and UAL cater to affluent or business travelers, while AAL's "core" base is a "budget-conscious flyer."

Jim said if that's true, "that actually says that the economy is doing pretty well," at least the "premium economy."

Jim said he doesn't want to be in Frontier or Spirit, not in the stocks and not on the planes, but decided not to elaborate. Moments later, he said he might've been having a "bad flashback" from a Spirit flight.

Then Jim told Judge, "You know what it is by the way," while Judge protested he has nothing to do with what Jim is saying. Jim then said Spirit charges for peanuts and carry-ons and "it's an unpleasant experience."

Judge said last Friday "was the busiest airline travel day ever" and wondered why Jim didn't bring that up; it's true that it would've bolstered Jim's AAL point. Jim said it's "exquisite (snicker) data" that anyone can look up to track the health of airlines.

Jim said it's "very easy" to own BRK-B even though it's hard for him to value all the parts. Joe said the JOET owns BRK-B, but he wouldn't buy it personally. Joe said the high was in February and it "might have a degree of difficulty (snicker) advancing further."

The JOET owns COST, but Joe doesn't own it ... personally. Joe said he would buy it here and would buy more on a decline. Stephanie Link wouldn't buy it, citing P.E.

Joe said the JOET owns NFLX and that he would be buying NFLX ... personally ... by the end of the day. (This writer is long NFLX.) On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said NFLX has had a lot of success recently in a number of endeavors, but, "At this level, I think I gotta sell some upside calls."

Karen took note of CRM afterhours trading. "This doesn't look as terrible as the reaction," Karen said.

Joe stiff-arms Jim’s ‘priced in’ call on NVDA last week

A curious revelation was heard on Tuesday's (5/28) Halftime Report when Stephanie Link admitted, "On the margin, I've been adding to technology. I don't own Nvidia unfortunately."

So, someone who's bought a bunch of tech stocks apparently doesn't think NVDA is as good as other stocks?

In this market??

What does that tell us.

(This writer has no position in NVDA.)

Joe Terranova crowed a little bit on his NVDA-$1,000-afterhours call of a week ago (which is one of the early contenders for Call of the Year, although it's a pretty short-term call so we're not sure it's "big" enough for the grand prize) and how Jim Lebenthal (who wasn't on Tuesday's show) thought all the growth was already priced in.

Judge started in on tech and specifically AAPL; the first thing Stephanie Link said was, "The stock is still down 4% from its high," a favorite metric of CNBCers. (Ah, that's the problem for NVDA. It's not down off its high.)

Bryn Talkington said AAPL looks "quite overbought." Josh Brown questioned how AAPL is going to sell a lot more phones. Link said that "the sentiment is so negative" because, between Link, Bryn and Josh, 2 out of 3 panelists aren't high on the stock.

Josh cut in, "Sorry, it's 28 times earnings, the sentiment is not bad."

Stephanie thinks AI is "going to be good" for AAPL, though we have "no idea" what it will mean. Judge suggested Stephanie is basing a bull case on "hope."

Joe hailed the market's resilience, saying that it's "void of a 10% correction."

Whew! Josh didn’t retell the story about the guy with a laptop who had to go to the lockers at Yankee Stadium and the Ticketmaster app prevented everyone from being late (or something like that)

Judge on Tuesday's (5/28) Halftime Report said Tony Pasquariello thinks the Mag 7 is both the "sword" and the "shield" of investing. (Judge was so impressed by this assessment, he brought it up at the beginning of Closing Bell too.)

Michelle Ross joined the set at Post 9 to talk biotech and ISNM, one of those binary-outcome stocks that had a good study (talk about gambling). (By the way, Judge hasn't mentioned in a long time Keith Meister's life-sciences ventures, which had Judge buzzing a couple years ago.) Ross also discussed MRUS and IDYA.

Judge said Northcoast moved LYV to the "penalty box." Josh Brown noted the stock was up on Tuesday. Josh said the government's case was "very general" and not highly specific, which Brown said will benefit the company. Brown said short-timers in LYV may not want this kind of "cloud," but long-term investors "can weather these types of things."

Joe Terranova agreed with Mark Mahaney's $700 target on NFLX, "easily." (This writer is long NFLX.)

Josh Brown's Final Trade was AMZN, saying under $200 is a "gift."

Jenny is either saying she matches/outperforms Dave Tepper ... or just buy the S&P index

Every now and then, Halftime Report episodes include pronouncements that really deserve one of those "fact checks" that they do after presidential debates.

On Friday (5/24), Jenny Harrington told Steve Weiss, "You (people in general, not Weiss) make a lot of money by being bullish ... You know what you learn when you're a long-term investor? Sticking with it for the long term because there's 2 truisms: You do not bet in the long term against the U.S. consumer, and the market goes up over time. So if you bet in line with the consumer and stick with it for the long term, and do not get wishy-washy and stick with a long-term earnings trajectory, I'm gonna put up market returns of anybody out there who just stays a long-term course trajectory, I'll put up their returns vs. anyone else's in that-"

Note that phrase: "I'm gonna put up market returns of anybody out there."

Weiss was having none of it. "I will bet you a hundred thousand dollars on that. I will put up Steve Cohn, I will put up Ken Griffin, I will put up Dave Tepper on their track record of the last 20 years. Against Buffett. Against Buffett," Weiss said.

"On their portfolio returns or on like other ways that they made money ... on carry from their clients, on their 2 and 20 fee schemes?" Jenny wondered.

"On their returns! No, on their portfolio returns!" Weiss said. "It's not even close Jenny ... 75% of long-only managers underperform every year. And you know what? It's not the same 25 that outperform?"

Judge, who didn't have the brass to analyze this discussion, abruptly ended it, but as they cut to break, the conservation continued, as Weiss told Jenny "You're so-" before the commercial kicked in.

Because Judge didn't analyze it, this page will.

Jenny is basically saying that "market returns" will match or beat anyone over time.

Yet Jenny, who didn't say a word about what her "long term" returns are, recommends single stocks, which means Jenny is arguing that she has superior ability to remain basically fully invested in the "market" over time while correctly predicting which components will outperform in shorter-term time frames.

OK.

Weiss admits his point isn’t clear

Things on Friday's (5/24) Halftime Report took a curious turn when the subject of "the consumer" came up in the A block.

Steve Weiss took issue with Tony Pasquariello's call on the consumer defying the bears; Weiss said "you can't group all consumers one way."

Jim Lebenthal and Weiss then clashed for some reason when Jim merely said "it's clear what you believe; you don't have to say it again."

"What do I believe? What's so clear?" Weiss interrupted.

Jim went on to make his own point, "The consumer is healthy."

Weiss then told Judge, "In terms of jobs, OK, we are seeing that the jobless claims are increasing. So he's talking about yesterday, and my job is to look at tomorrow."

"You cannot be serious! You cannot be serious!" Jim protested.

"You know what? Honestly? That's my thought. Is you cannot be serious," Judge told Weiss.

"One of us can be long and short and can look out. One of us gets paid to be bullish all the time," Weiss shrugged.

"No I don't. No I don't," Jim said. But even Jenny Harrington cut in, "No you do, because you make a lot of money by being bullish, because the right bets."

"He was also bullish in '22," Weiss said.

So much for Jim’s pre-earnings claim that NVDA growth was ‘all priced in’

Steve Weisss opened Friday's (5/24) Halftime Report saying "I'm not putting new money into the market now, but I'm pretty well loaded with the market."

But he would "take some off" because he sees "higher for longer" in rates, and the market hasn't "fully come to grips with that."

Weiss then triggered our Spider Sense (or whatever it should be called) when, like so many others recently, he used taxes as the reason for not trying to follow his own market-timing advice and "take some off" as he just indicated. Weiss said he's "more likely to hedge" positions than sell, because, "I don't want to pay taxes, you know, on nice gains that I'll only come back and redeploy."

That's basically what Karen Finerman said a day ago (see below). It all makes us wonder, given that stock gains (in taxable accounts) accrue a constant tax liability, what kind of strategy out there allows you to use the money/value from a stock that goes up and not have to pay the taxes until you're 100 years old?

Jim Lebenthal said he's having a "terrible day" because he agrees with Weiss on the market meandering without a crystal clear direction. Jim then complained that NVDA "sucked all the air out of the room" on Thursday. But Jim thinks that will continue, so he actually bought more NVDA after declaring Wednesday before the earnings report that "it's probably all priced in."

Obviously, whatever panelists are saying about stocks today might be a lot different in a day or 2.

"Intellectually, it leaves me very cold," Jim admitted.

Jim did say he can get intellectually excited about ORCL, which he bought more of.

‘This time is different,’ Weiss says

Bill Baruch dialed in to Friday's (5/24) Halftime Report to say he bought SPY put spreads.

Bill said he didn't like the market reaction on Thursday's opening bell. After Bill's audio briefly went out, Judge did do a good job of getting Bill to restate the trade, which is an SPY 520/500 put spread.

Bill also sold AMD. Bill said it hasn't recovered since April 4.

Weiss said everyone had been thinking "the market is entirely dependent upon Nvidia." But yesterday showed "the market is entirely dependent upon the Fed and monetary policy." Weiss said that means you want to be in Megacap Tech, because "they're the best story in equities."

Then, viewers got a major pronouncement.

"This is a new paradigm," Weiss said, adding he hates to say "this time is different," but "it is different." But he hasn't bought more NVDA because he can see a "10% drawdown" any time, so "why not wait" to buy it when that happens. (But he's not going to sell ahead of that 10% drawdown because he doesn't want to pay the tax.)

Weiss said sometimes "JOMO" (Joy Of Missing Out) trumps the FOMO, and he'd rather play the JOMO trade now. Jim Lebenthal said he likes NVDA for the split, citing TSLA and AAPL activity years ago.

"Idiosyncratic" was heard about 15 times.

Weiss got it on Judge Smails

Jim Lebenthal on Friday's (5/24) Halftime Report again made the "average age of cars on the road" argument in favor of GPC, whose performance he calls "perplexing." (Jim's argument that car parts stocks are going to surge because the average age of cars is about the same as it's been for 10-15 years is like the "people gotta eat" argument for fertilizer stocks in the early days of Fast Money.)

Even Judge said this time, "You've been talking about that for years."

After Jenny Harrington defended MMM saying there's "no good reason" for a selloff, Judge impressively pointed out, "You guys can't say when these things are having long losing streaks, 'Ah there's no good reason for it,' but when the stocks are up, you guys finding the reasons for it."

Judge asked about renewed headwinds in commercial real estate. Jenny Harrington of course said her stocks are fine even though some REITs are having troubles.

Steve Weiss said "there is a big problem" in commercial real estate and said the risk doesn't justify the reward.

Jenny was talking about adding the exciting company of KSS.

Judge called Weiss "Judge Smails" during Final Trade even though Weiss' gray jacket is a great one. Judge asked Weiss, "Did you get it?" Weiss said "I got it," then, as they cut to Kelly Evans, Weiss could be heard mocking Judge's question, "Did I get it."

From 161st & Jerome lockers to Delta Sky Club: Josh’s story about how Ticketmaster’s app helped him out at the Yankee game didn’t make any sense

Judge on Thurday's (5/23) Halftime Report asked LYV fan Josh Brown about the Justice Department's move.

Josh said "everyone knew something was coming," though Wall Street didn't expect a move to break up the company. Brown said there's a lot of political interest in targeting "things that young people are into."

Josh stressed that prices are set by the artists and that most of the fees in ticket prices go to the venues.

Josh told a story about how well the Ticketmaster app worked at the Yankee game on Wednesday when a friend brought a laptop that had to be put in a locker all the way around the stadium. "I had to share his ticket out of the 5," Josh explained, and a few years ago, this would've been an "insurmountable" problem in which Josh "would've missed the first inning." Josh said he's not a seller of LYV.

On Fast Money, Tim Seymour complained that concert tickets are still sold the same way they were sold 20 years ago. "I think they should be broken up, and I think they will be," Tim said.

Julie Biel, who obviously didn't hear Josh on Halftime, said "there's really no one that's gonna defend Ticketmaster at this point" and that "we can kind of all agree it's not a good service."

Steve Grasso said he "might not be the guy" to defend Ticketmaster, but he thinks "they're taking on a lot of flak" while "it really is the artists that are setting prices to a large extent" and this suit feels "a little more political" than just being about fees.

Back on Halftime, Steve Weiss revealed he sold UBER, stating "the rich are trading down" to shop at WMT (snicker). (This writer is long UBER.) He said UBER's high prices for a lot of people are an "affordability issue." Josh Brown said there's a "real problem in the economy."

Judge said Bernstein views TOST as a "great company but not a good stock." Josh Brown seemed puzzled and said they "literally have it backwards."

Josh says he wouldn’t start a new position in NVDA (even though Karen says going home long is the same thing)

Of course, Thursday's (5/23) Halftime Report had to open with NVDA.

Josh Brown said of the earnings predictions, "Were we bullish enough? ... They keep doing this." Brown said the 10-for-1 split was the "surprise" of the earnings call.

Josh said he's had the stock for a long time and can deal with the downturns, and maybe not everyone can, but he sees a "decadelong story."

Steve Weiss said "normally," the kind of "euphoria" associated with NVDA's earnings is reminiscent of the "tulip bulb" euphoria, but "I don't think that's the case here," though Weiss conceded "there's a lot of momentum in it."

Josh said if you looked at Big Tech charts without any context, "your assumption would be tulips," but the charts are justified by earnings, "it's not a multiple expansion story."

However, Brown said, "Is today the day you want to establish a brand-new position? My personal opinion, I don't think so."

Weiss said NVDA has an "80% share" of the market, and other companies won't want to rely on that, so "they can't sustain that share level," meaning market share, not share price (we think).

Weiss, like Josh apparently timing the trade, said there's "too much euphoria here right now," and NVDA will pull back, "and that's when you buy it."

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso tried his luck at that endeavor, suggesting NVDA may have a "selloff late June," just a "quick dip" before a bounce-back. Karen Finerman said NVDA had a "pretty impressive" day of trading Thursday given what the market did. Karen said she "did nothing" with the stock on Thursday; she has a "much lower basis" and said it would be really hard to correctly predict when and where the stock might fall and then sell the shares, and catch the rebound and make more on the rebound than she's paying in taxes. (Honestly, we don't have a Ph.D. in anything, but we think there are mathematical reasons why that argument doesn't really hold water.)

Liz Young on Halftime said, "So far, so good. I do think that as the year moves on, investors have to be careful about risk management," because people who have been in NVDA or other names a long time, "you're probably quite overweight."

No one credited Terranova (who wasn't on Wednesday's show) for his $1,000-in-afterhours call on Wednesday (see below).

Joe nails the NVDA reax

At the top of Wednesday's (5/22) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova expressed doubt that people would unload NVDA from portfolios if it happens to miss on the quarter.

Judge said "I do think though that if they miss, this stock could go down a lot. And the Nasdaq could, could go down 2%."

Well, they didn't miss. (This review was posted overnight Wednesday/Thursday.)

In one of the great, albeit short-term, calls this year, Joe said NVDA is "set up the right way" where it keeps moving higher and tops $1,000 in afterhours.

Jason Snipe said if NVDA comes close to a revenue guide of 26, it'll be a "blowout"; he thinks that's "likely to happen."

Jim Lebenthal, lukewarm on this name recently despite owning it at least Jim doesn't feel "handcuffed," as Rob Sechan does with some of his names, predicted NVDA will "beat" and "raise guidance." But he said "everybody" is expecting that, so "it's probably all priced in." So Jim is "not buying it here today."

Joe countered, "When people say it's already priced in, it's not already priced in."

However, Joe indicated a possible issue if indeed NVDA posted a great quarter/outlook. Joe said his "concern" is that it would add fuel to the prospect of a "return to 2023" with a "very narrow set of stocks" leading the market higher.

Joe even referred to his debate with Adam Parker on Closing Bell a couple months ago in which Joe said he's underweight the Mag 7. (That debate was at the end of February. Joe disagreed with Adam's call to have "at least" 25% exposure to the Mag 7. (Adam in recent weeks, as Judge has noted, has backpedaled on that tech trade a bit.) Joe explained to Judge back in February, "What I said to you yesterday was that you can have an equal-weighted strategy and outperform." Evidently Joe is wondering about that one.)

On Wednesday's Fast Money, Karen Finerman said of NVDA, "The bar was really high, and they did a nice job of stepping over the bar." Tim Seymour sorta bungled a double reference to Dick Fosbury. Moments later, Karen mentioned Dwight Stones.

Joe actually thinks Ackman hasn’t gotten enough credit

Judge on Wednesday's (5/22) Halftime reported on XOM facing a "shareholder uprising" over climate change policies.

Jim Lebenthal is long XOM and said shareholders aren't going to support the climate suit and stated, "If you want to get to green new energy, you're gonna have to use fossil fuel to get there. Better to partner with the Exxons of the world than to vilify them."

Then Jim talked up his new favorite subject, nat gas spot price.

Joe Terranova said Wall Street will cast the votes on XOM's policies; Judge indicated "we know which way they tend to" vote on these matters. Joe agreed but said "Engine 1 (sic no 'Number')" a couple years ago got 3 directors on the board.

Judge noted Matt Boss is bullish on LULU. Joe said you don't have to be "seriously concerned" if you own the stock, but you may have to "bide your time" with this one. "It could potentially be dead money over the coming quarters," Joe said. Jim said Joe is right, "This is guilty until proven innocent."

Every 2-3 days, Judge asks panelists about GS, and everyone always says the same thing. Jason Snipe said it's "prudent" to take a position and ride the "continued momentum."

Joe said TJX is evidence that low- and middle-income consumers are "buckling" under higher interest rates.

Joe talked up ISRG and questioned Citi removing it from its "Focus List."

In a helpful bit of information not often heard on the program, Joe said CMG's 50-1 split is set for holders of record on June 18 and takes effect June 25. Joe actually said Bill Ackman "doesn't get enough credit for the winners" but that CMG is one of the best trades Ackman has had.

Jim said ORCL's strength seems "so obvious" that he's surprised it "doesn't have more of a following."

Joe mentioned "Mercado Leeblay- (sic) er, Mercado Libre."

Steve Eisman predicts Trump win

On Tuesday's (5/21) Fast Money, famed investor Steve Eisman opined on the presidential election.

"My call is, that, with as much certainty as I could possibly have, I think Trump wins every single swing state and becomes president. Um, and, I don't think that has much implications for the market at all," Eisman said.

Bryn calls NVDA ‘underappreciated’

Bryn Talkington cued up the drama on Tuesday's (5/21) Halftime Report when she stated early in the program, "I think the earnings Oscars are tomorrow. And best picture will go to Nvidia."

Bryn actually said NVDA "continues to be somewhat underappreciated," which brought chuckles from Judge. Bryn said Dan Niles said on CNBC a day earlier that NVDA is trading 15% below its 5-year P.E. average. (Ah. Another indication of P.E. ratio predicting ... nothing.)

Jim Lebenthal, long NVDA (but only mildly enthusiastic about that fact; on the other hand, he didn't say he was "handcuffed" by the trade like Rob Sechan has experienced with other stocks), said estimates are up "a lot" from last year, and he wouldn't be surprised if the stock "popped in the afterhours" after earnings but "trailed off a little bit" by the end of the week.

Stephanie Link bought more FTNT. (So much for that conversation between Rob and Joe a day earlier.) (See below.)

Judge said Adam Jonas reiterated an "overweight" on TSLA. Bryn said 187 seems like resistance; she's selling calls and thinks the stock is in a "downward trend" for a couple quarters before it recovers.

Josh Brown, who curiously wore a scarf, opened the program discussing his GLW buy. Though GLW "might be a little bit short-term overbought," he said it's the kind of "technical situation" he looks for.

Josh noted that GLW was a hot name for fiber optics (snicker) during the dot-com era; "that whole thing is happening again, but now with AI."

Josh also bought SN, which he called "more of a flyer."

Then he said, "I definitely wouldn't touch it right at this price; I'm in it, uh, lower than here."

That's interesting, because as Karen Finerman always says on Fast Money, if you go home long a stock, it's like you bought it today.

Brown said SN is "one of the hottest brands in American appliances."

Josh said TOST has cooled off a bit, and it would be fine to take a "breather."

We were a bit surprised by how much time Leslie Picker and Judge spent at the Ares Management Investor Day. (The response to the question about NFL-private equity wasn't headline-making.)

During Final Trades, referring to Josh's scarf, Judge said, "I've been biting my tongue for the last 59 minutes and 30 seconds. ... The Jolly Rancher, that's your new nickname."

Josh shrugged it off and curiously offered MRNA as a Final Trade; that was the one Weiss talked about all the time in the 400s but stopped talking about it in the 100s.

Rob says he’s ‘handcuffed’ by stocks that make ‘no sense’ to sell

On Monday's (5/20) Halftime Report, taxes were apparently tying one of the panelists in knots. (No, it had nothing to do with Joe Biden's grandiose "fair share" thing that was heard during the State of the Union.) (Boy, that address sure had a lot of staying power.) (We're sure Lee Cooperman would have something to say about it, but he's not on the show anymore.)

Rather, it involved Rob Sechan's exposure to the consumer via AZO, DECK, HD, LULU, LOW, MCD, ORLY and RACE.

"It's a case of haves and have-nots," Rob told Judge, but then, it sounded like Rob was having Burger King for lunch, because he uncorked this whopper: "Some of those names are names that we're kind of handcuffed in. We've owned them for a very long period of time. And from a tax standpoint, it would make absolutely no sense for up- us to sell."

Now, we don't have a Ph.D. in anything, let alone stock-picking or "risk management"; around here, we can barely calculate a P.E. ratio.

So it's probably no surprise that we're scratching our heads trying to figure out Rob's long-term strategy here.

If it makes "absolutely no sense" to sell, how/when is he ever going to cash in on these stocks?

Or is the point to never sell, that our goal as stock investors is to pick something that over time either makes a lot of money that we can never ... use ... or hope that something with a long-term gain declines back to our basis so that we don't have to owe taxes on it?

We'll keep trying to figure it out.

In a sentence or two, Joe basically points out that P.E. ratio is perhaps, at best, a contra-indicator

In the 27th minute of Monday's (5/20) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova was talking about "Palo Alto," one of his longtime favorite names, as Judge brought up the cybersecurity sector.

Invoking show panelists' favorite statistic, Joe said "It's still well below where it was before it reported earnings." Joe further asserted that PANW will not get "the benefit of the doubt" in its earnings report. He likes CRWD better, "because it's performing a lot better."

So then Judge asked Rob Sechan about owning FTNT and not CRWD. Rob said he should own CRWD but it always felt like a stock he'd be "chasing," whereas FTNT was "a little cheaper."

Judge didn't have the brass to address that statement, but Joe did, stating FTNT is a "great example" against the "valuation argument"; that in the cybersecurity space, "the cheapest stock is the one that's actually underperforming the most."

Rob’s actually worried
about a ‘growth scare’

Joe Terranova got things rolling on Monday's (5/20) Halftime Report, stating at the opening that "it's obviously a very important week because of Nvidia," and that the bar is "incredibly high" for that stock.

Judge wondered about the notion of an "everything (snicker) rally." Shannon Saccocia said, "You want to be in the equity complex (snicker)," and she suggested "outside of the Mag 5."

Sarat Sethi observed, "The 2nd half of the year, comps are going to be really hard for the Big Tech companies."

Judge said, "I feel like the easy money has been made in Big Cap Tech."

Rob Sechan said "Seasonality's in a good place" but that the worry is a "growth scare (snicker)."

Rob mentioned Rick Rieder talking about how a rate cut would "slow down the economy a bit."

Joe reiterated his "firm landing" prediction but allowed, "I do see pockets of weakness as it relates to the consumer."

Sarat touted STZ actually as a "post-COVID" drinking play. (As if drinking wasn't available in March 2020.)

In what seemed like an endorsement for LULU, Rob asked Joe why LULU is trading at a "big discount" to its previous multiple. Joe said "the revenue growth has been the problem." Rob questioned how many times we've heard that about NKE "in the last hundred years."

Judge wondered about Jamie Dimon sounding "cautiously pessimistic." Sarat said Jamie does a great job of managing expectations, though he added, "You gotta take what he's saying with a grain of salt."

Sarat said demand for TDG's products/services is "through the roof."

Judge should be analyzing
the Tom Brady Roast

Judge on Friday's (5/17) Halftime Report asked Steve Weiss about NFLX, as Judge does about every other day. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Totally missing the trees through the forest here, Weiss said the stock is up a lot recently but had declined before that.

"I still think it's got room," Weiss said, adding that NFLX is not only the acknowledged leader (note to Weiss: "Streaming" isn't a sector) but has the money to finance deals, and there's "too many streaming options out there."

Fair enough. What Judge really should've thought about doing was adding some comedy to the show by discussing the Tom Brady Roast that aired on NFLX last weekend.

Important note: Roasts can be controversial, and this page does NOT take any stance on whether certain topics broached at the Brady Roast are out of bounds. On the one hand, great comedy should tiptoe around the envelope; on the other hand, people tuning in to be entertained for a couple hours shouldn't be traumatized. Make of that, and it, what you will.

But reviewing television is fair game. And the truth, which Judge and Weiss left out Friday, is that NFLX is a singular entity in pop culture that in fact is only gaining presence with events such as the Brady gathering.

OK, so how'd it go. It worked for a couple reasons — one of them being the teenager-like giddiness of a buncha 30- and 40-somethings who realized they could swear into a microphone and not be fined by Roger Goodell.

It was almost like pro wrestling theatrics, a bunch of guys racing for the mike to trash talk each other.

Now, is that giddiness stoopid? Yeah, but, admittedly, it was kinda funny.

And, 3 comedians — Nikki Glaser, Andrew Schulz and Tony Hinchcliffe — absolutely killed it. They easily made up for the Busts of the Night, a group led by Ben Affleck (by a wide margin) that included Bert Kreischer and Tom Segura, Bill Belichick (a lot seemed to be promised there, with little delivered, and others couldn't stop making the same Bill Belichick joke over and over), Dana White, Julian Edelman and (mostly) Kevin Hart, who stumbled out of the gate and either really was laughing hysterically at weak material or practicing performance art but did gain a little momentum in the latter half.

Will Ferrell and Peyton Manning and Drew Bledsoe, we're going to charitably pronounce mediocre. Randy Moss was flat as a pancake and almost seemed like too nice of a guy to be taking part in something like this.

It seems ridiculous to believe, given that his own spiel wasn't great, but we actually started wondering if Tom Brady, as the one who evidently engineered this production, might actually be an All-Pro at comedy. #notgoingthereyet

It's worth stating again: Did watching this event make you feel like you are 14 years old? Honestly, yes.

And that's kinda funny.

‘For the last 15 years, always a V-shaped recovery’

An argument (that's a stretch) nearly got started on Friday's (5/17) Halftime Report when Judge served up a preview of NVDA earnings.

Steve Weiss contended that "the earnings report will not be a proxy for earnings- for the AI movement. That's going to continue. Even if they miss."

"I think that's debatable," Judge countered.

Judge had opened the show talking about "The Everything Rally." Judge aired Josh Brown's comments from a day earlier (see below) about earnings surprising the bears.

Weiss on Friday wasn't too impressed, stating, "He's right, but guess what — that's the same view you could've had for the- since the buttonwood tree. Because markets go up 90% of the time."

Weiss asserted something that he occasionally brings up, that "for the last 15 years, always a V-shaped recovery," so people are conditioned to it, a fair point.

Weiss said, "Even '08, not quite a V-shape, but pretty close."

That one got our attention, because '08 is sort of the tipping point. The dot-com bubble is hated by everyone, who wishes they sold on Y2K. The March 2020 bottom is hated by no one, who wishes they had backed up the truck. In between is 2008, in which hatred of the September-October disaster is sort of outweighed by the joy of being long in March 2009.

Meanwhile, Kevin Simpson bought more AMGN. He said he wants to "look for things that haven't moved."

Judge said Kevin had DUK energy "called away," not something you tend to hear very often. Kevin noted utilities have been "trading like AI stocks" and shrugged off having the stock called away.

Weiss yet again harped on how some people are living "paycheck to paycheck."

Judge said, "Now everybody, literally (sic), is talking about utilities as AI plays." Jenny Harrington said NEE "is still way way way way off its highs," a popular measuring stick of Halftime panelists.

Jason Snipe bought more GS and basically touted most or all of the company's business units. Weiss endorsed GS and said "the pipelines are huge," but he doesn't see the IPO market heating up until "next year."

Contessa punts on Josh’s question about ‘innuendo’ related to Warren Buffett’s regulatory interests

In the latter half of Thursday's (5/16) Halftime Report, Contessa Brewer joined the panel at Post 9 to discuss Berkshire's (extremely exciting) investment in CB.

Judge pointed out that Josh Brown, one of the panelists, had guessed that AMZN might've been the new BRK.A buy. Josh wondered if he could ask Contessa a "crazy question."

"Sure," Contessa said.

Josh asked if Evan Greenberg is Hank Greenberg's son (yes, said Contessa), "and wasn't there some innuendo back in the day that Warren Buffett may have been partially responsible for the troubles that AIG had from a regulatory perspective. But, like, maybe that was all fake and made up on the internet."

"That's a very in-the-weeds ques- question going back, like, way longer than I have been (unintelligible)," Contessa said.

"You can punt on that one. I- I give you permission," Judge assured Contessa.

Meanwhile, Bill Baruch bought some more UBER, citing a "partnership with Costco" and shuttle business at concerts. (This writer is long UBER.) Josh said UBER is "9% below its 50-day. It is not trading well," but he shrugged that it seems to be "part of a, a stock in an uptrend."

Jim’s looking over his shoulder (at least until the big whoosh down)

Most people on Thursday's (5/16) Halftime Report were optimistic about the stock market, so it was a bit curious to hear Jim Lebenthal of all people expressing fears.

(Then again, it's not that curious, as Jim is obviously still lamenting that April's pullback wasn't as big as he hoped and he never got the "big. Whoosh. Down.")

Citing Loretta Mester's fresh comments, Steve Liesman told Judge it sounds like key Fed figures believe the current rate "is enough to bring down inflation."

Jim offered, "You would be a fool to not be nervous and be long here."

Judge wondered, "How the hell can you be nervous if you're long small caps and adding to them recently."

Jim said, "Bravery is not the absence of fear. Bravery is action in the face of fear. It is wise to be looking over your shoulder."

Josh Brown said the bears have gotten the macro right, what they missed was "the unbelievable earnings power at the 500 best companies in the world."

Judge said technology is the best sector since the April 19 close, which Judge said was the "April lows."

Bill Baruch said "there's some tailwinds that haven't- we haven't seen yet from Apple as they start to spend on AI."

Judge said energy is "the only sector that's negative" since April 19. Jim protested that since the October lows, "energy has been a wonderful place to be." Jim said to look not at oil but nat gas and stated, "That's where the puck's going, Scott."

Jim and Bill noted that farmers are dealing with slumping crop prices, which is a headwind for DE.

At one point, Jim said he listens to earnings calls rather than just reading the analyst reports a day later, "because you listen to what the analysts are questioning, and it kind of figures things out."

Jim said he's going to give CSCO "another quarter," after which it could be "off to the races."

Much later in the program, Josh advised Jim to "blow out the Cisco" and put the money in QCOM. "Thank you, my brother. I love ya," Jim said. Judge said, "I thought the response was a little patronizing." "I didn't mean it patronizingly!" Jim said, adding, "What do you want me to say?" Jim said he's "got a lot of Qualcomm."

Karen reveals the 3 worst names of all time in retail

In Wednesday's (5/15) Fast Money intros, guest host Joe Kernen (he usually doesn't do afternoon appearances) said he wants to pronounce Steve Grasso's surname as "Grosso." Steve confirmed, "It's pronounced 'Grosso.'"

Steve reiterated his forecast for 2024 rate cuts: "I'm still at 3."

On inflation, Karen Finerman opined, "I think a 2-handle is enough to declare victory."

Joe kept complaining about the "mess" of the "Drudgington Post" website. Steve "Grosso" said "I haven't looked at it in a very long time."

Karen told Joe that Fifth Third bank is one of the "3 really dumb names." The other two are "The Athlete's Foot" and "Dress Barn." Karen stated, "If you're a woman, would you wanna shop at 'Dress Barn'?"

We've heard Karen make this observation previously, but honestly, we thought "Dress Barn" was kinda cute (but apparently not).

Joe actually asked guest Michael Pugliese, "Is everyone FOS?" (Different FCC standards in the afternoon than morning.)

Joe says AAPL management ‘punished’ the nonbeliever investors (a/k/a How’s MRNA doing)

CNBC's gorjus Kate Rooney interviewed Visa CEO Ryan McInerny about midway through Wednesday's (5/15) Halftime Report. McInerny said people are looking for weakness in the consumer, but Visa is seeing "consistent, resilient stability."

Steve Weiss, though, who was late to Post 9 for Wednesday's show and had just barely taken a seat, warned afterwards about the "consumers who are stretched," then claimed that's what Jane Fraser has been talking about.

Joe Terranova personally bought AMGN and MRK. The curious thing about that is, how come nobody talks about MRNA anymore (Weiss was still talking it up when it was in the 400s). (Works until it doesn't, apparently.)

Weiss, joining in progress (he cited "New York traffic"), bought more CAT, citing "inexpensive" (Zzzzzzz).

Joe declared again that AAPL is "going higher."

Then Joe bluntly claimed that "Tim Cook and the executive management team punished the investors" who had expected underperformance all year; Joe said it was because of AAPL's "capital allocation strategy."

Judge said Weiss has "dumped on it a lot" but just bought AAPL for a trade. Weiss started to downplay the buyback as "relatively small" but admitted it's "accretive to earnings." Weiss said the stock's trading up in advance of its usual September refresh.

"I bought it as a pure momentum trade," Weiss said, protesting, "The valuation relative to their growth rate is way out of line."

Judge wondered why Weiss doesn't own FCX any more. "Since time memoriam (sic), uh, commodities are a trade," Weiss said, "and when everybody's going one way, it's time to go the other way."

Belski would’ve gotten more headlines with an even 6,000

Judge opened Wednesday's (5/15) Halftime Report by saying "what, uh, an incredible (snicker) morning it's been" and that "we have big news today from one of our own."

That news was that Brian Belski has raised his S&P target "to the highest on the Street," or 5,600.

Brian wasn't a panelist but joined remotely. "I think the market is gonna correct from a higher level," Belski said, and "there's no point in, in trying to time this."

Belski continued, "I think this is the final unwind quite frankly of 'stocks only go up if interest rates go down.'"

Judge said Tom Lee on Tuesday's Closing Bell is also "more bullish" (not an unusual event); Tom said on that program that May figures to get better than it already is.

Kari Firestone, on Judge's panel Wednesday, said, "You have to in this environment go with the momentum and the trend."

Judge noted that the "correction" in April wasn't what some regard as your "typical flush." (Translation: You always know you're in a bull market when you hear CNBC panelists clamoring for the "big whoosh down" so they can start buying again.) Joe Terranova said the reason we didn't get that flush is "because the eco-data (sic) is in the perfect spot," which Joe said is in between hard and soft landing, "it's the firm landing, it's the right landing."

Judge said there are indications that PCE is "cooperating." Joe concluded, "This is a bull market. We're in the middle of it."

Jim claims ‘traders are awesome,’ then sorta indicates why they’re not

Tuesday's (5/14) Halftime Report actually didn't have much news going on, but Judge, to his credit and his panelists' credit, ran a crisp show, one of his best in weeks, chock-full of rapid-fire stock calls and some informative disagreements.

Amy Raskin opened things by saying she's "had it" with NKE and sold it. Judge said the company "blamed remote work" (snicker) for its "innovation slowdown."

Josh Brown lumped in SBUX with NKE and said "what's plaguing these companies I think is just fatigue on the part of the consumer," and according to Brown, it typically takes "more than 1 quarter" for companies like these to get going again.

Amy also sold CVS; "the execution is just terrible," though she admitted, "I might be selling at the bottom." Sarat Sethi though called CVS a "deep value" play and said he'll be "doubling up on taxable positions" and that investors "could see something happen" in terms of a catalyst.

Sarat bought LW, which he said sells fries to MCD and has been stung by GLP-1 "noise." Amy's buying more VRTX.

Jim Lebenthal sold CPT, saying on the one hand everyone wants inflation to go down, but owning this company means hoping that rents go up, which Jim said is one of those "intellectual conflicts." Josh Brown though said "it's a hedge."

Jim crowed about the capex spending of ORCL supposedly paying off. "I'm not putting down traders. Traders are awesome. But Sarat and I invest. We look at things like that capex and we say it's gonna pay off, and here it is," Jim said.

(Note: We'd prefer the photo above show Jim smiling; but despite generally upbeat commentary on Tuesday, the look above is how Jim generally looked during good camera angle shots, so hey, we just had to grab one. If any gripes, this one's on Jim.)

Josh said ORCL is nearing "taking out a new valuation level, but it's not overbought at all." Josh predicted $150 on ORCL.

Jason Snipe, who wasn't a panelist Tuesday but briefly joined remotely, said he is buying UBER on the pullback, acknowledging "slight misses on delivery and freight," but he expects those to be "temporary." (This writer is long UBER.) Josh Brown called it a "smart buy." Sarat cautioned, "The question is the cash flow growth."

Amy Raskin said it's "a little scary" that people sound "bulled up" like there's "no downside" to the stock market, but Amy admitted, "As long as we're pending rate cuts, it's hard for the market to go down a lot."

Josh pins a 250 on AMZN

Dee Bosa on Tuesday's (5/14) Halftime Report previewed the big Google event at Alphabet on Tuesday.

Jim Lebenthal stressed that every selloff of Alphabet on AI reasons has been a buying opportunity. Amy Raskin sort of waffled like L'Eggo my egg'o on owning Alphabet; Jim questioned why there's "dissonance" (snicker) in Amy's statement and eventually said, "I can't tell if you wanna own it or not."

Amy said, "I do own it, so I do wanna own it, because I do own it, but it's not a huge bet for us."

Judge asked Josh Brown to settle it regarding Alphabet, but Josh also kind of waffled like L'Eggo my egg'o.

But Josh did say he doesn't understand why people in the market a long time may "not see" that AMZN is going to 250.

Judge asked Sarat Sethi about his "speculative" (Sarat's term) position in RBLX. "I like the business they're in," Sarat said, though "their execution has not been good." Sarat asserted though that "the stock's gonna do well." Sarat qualified/couched his answer to Judge's question as to whether he's a "long-term holder."

Sarat talked up EIX, an interesting trade that he said got caught in California wildfire concerns. However, we checked the chart, and it seems like kind of a constant yo-yo.

Bob Pisani discussed some of the top ETFs of the last 5 years. Judge said he's "pretty surprised" that the XME "would be up every year double digits for the past 5." Bob said that ETF is "probably 30% gold stocks."

Judge noted Josh Brown's recent buy of WBD is on a 4-day win streak. "I think I got lucky on the timing," Brown said.

Weiss hasn’t had anything new to say about NFLX in weeks months years but keeps getting asked about it anyway

Fairly early into Monday's (5/13) Halftime Report, we heard Jenny Harrington state, "It's just as easy for me to use bing search on my phone as it is Google search."

Well, that's true.

On the other hand, more than a year ago, the computers at CNBCfix HQ actually switched over search pages from Google to bing, for at least a month.

And frankly, it seemed like bing sucks.

Just too many fringe or obscure results than are expected from Google, and nowhere close in image searching.

But whatever Jenny wants to do.

Giddy just last week about owning stocks, Steve Weiss was Mr. Cool on Monday's Halftime.

Judge started the show asking Weiss about trimming Alphabet and selling the QQQ. (This writer is long GOOGL and QQQ.)

Weiss said that when Alphabet (we're guessing GOOGL but not sure) was in the 130s with all the "noise," he thought there was "no there there" to the complaints and he started to "supersize the position," now he's just trimming it back. He said selling the QQQ is just "risk management."

Weiss said he "will lighten up" on META because it's just too big of a position.

Moments later, Joe Terranova offered, "I'll tell you the risk in selling the Q's right now — Apple's going higher." And, Joe said there could be another "parabolic move" in NVDA post-earnings.

Joe tried to explain to Weiss how hard it is to outperform when not owning AAPL while it's going up, as Joe says it is now.

Weiss said he didn't want Joe to take it personally, but it's "gettin' old that you gotta own Apple." Weiss said the earnings growth is driven by buybacks, not fundamentals.

Jenny said AAPL "can't" use its pile of cash to do deals. Judge asked, "What do you mean they 'can't'?" Jenny said, "Just because you can, doesn't mean you should."

Weiss admited that he keeps calling NFLX the "leader" in streaming. (This writer is long NFLX.) "No sense repeating it, but I will," Weiss said. Then he compared Netflix to Secretariat. "You're datin' yourself, Weiss," Judge said. Joe said NFLX is still 15% below its all-time high. Joe did NOT say that any stock is guaranteed to go back to its all-time high. #howfarisPelotonofftheall-timehigh

Weiss yet again predicted AMD will take a "steady march back up to 80."

On GME, Weiss suggested that Roaring Kitty may have "tapped the kitty too much" and "is broke" and now needs to get it "roarin' again." Weiss said he thought everybody "tapped out of this one the last time."

Judge referred to the text at the bottom of the screen as the "deco, as we call it."

Karen says iPad ad is ‘terrible’
(a/k/a every bracket is better off)

The crew on Friday's (5/10) Fast Money took up the controversial iPad ad, with mixed reviews.

Tim Seymour said he's not offended at all by the ad; "there's social media outrage on almost anything."

However, Karen Finerman stated, "I actually thought it was terrible." Karen questioned what Steve Jobs would've thought of such a destruction of creative tools

Steve Grasso offered that this is how technology improves things, and "Ford never apologized to horse and buggies," and in AAPL's case, "It shouldn't have been an apology; it should've been a rephrase of what they're exactly trying to get to with the ad."

Meanwhile, Karen said some upper-income people shop at COST because they find great value and find it "totally fun."

Grasso stated, "Every income bracket is doing better off than they were pre-pandemic. Every one." Steve said that's based on "net worth" and the "amount of debt that they're carrying."

Weiss is ‘longest in memory’

Judge opened Friday's (5/10) Halftime Report saying "the big news" (snicker) is that the S&P is within 1% of a record.

Get ready to pop the corks.

Judge said Tom Lee and Jonathan Krinsky, who hasn't been on the show for a while, see more gains. Steve Weiss revealed, "I'm on that page for now," before sounding giddy about virtually every stock on the program.

Weiss said Jay Powell "put a floor under the market" by indicating "no more rate increases."

"I'm the longest I've been in, in, in memory, actually," Weiss revealed, catching Judge's attention.

Weiss told Judge he's surprised at the market's long-term resilience. But Weiss said there's "even more pressure" now on those living "paycheck to paycheck."

Not quite as giddy as Weiss, Jim Lebenthal said he had to note that "every time the rally has broadened, it has reversed seemingly a week or two later." Jim said the market is "hinging on" next week's PPI and CPI, and while it "may seem counterintuitive," Jim wouldn't be surprised if inflation is soft and the market still goes down because it might be near or in full-value territory.

Jim explained, "The correction we had in April didn't seem deep enough." (The funny thing is, we remember Jim saying the same thing all through April 2020, that the late March bounce-back couldn't be trusted because obviously the market still has farther to go lower.)

Bill Baruch, though, happily declared, "Buy in May, and this bull market is here to stay." Bill said other sectors have taken leadership, but he thinks the "thrust" is still coming from tech.

Hard to find a stock that Weiss doesn’t like

It only took 10 minutes on Friday's (5/10) Halftime for Judge to get to another Tony Pasquariello note, which basically just observed that Megacap Tech giants earn more money than other companies.

Steve Weiss said that you might think MSFT or AMZN is "overvalued," but "it's only a moment in time they're overvalued."

Weiss is back in ASML with a smaller position; "I was clearly wrong in selling it."

Weiss doesn't own C but Jim Lebenthal does; Weiss nevertheless said Jane Fraser has done a "phenomenal job" and praised Fraser for moving into the "high end of wealth management."

Weiss congratulated Bill Baruch (who was on the show) and Kevin Simpson (who wasn't) for recent buy-CAT calls. Weiss has added a small position.

Weiss bought more NFLX and said "you have to buy this one when it's down." (This writer is long NFLX.) He said Netflix is "No. 1" but the "Disney-Hulu combination" will be among the "2 leaders."

Weiss said once ADM clears its restatement hurdle, "the stock should go back to 80."

Weiss said DKS works because people spend on their pets and their kids, and he regrets selling it a lot lower.

Steve Liesman said Michelle Bowman doesn't see rate cuts being "warranted" this year. Steve isn't sure that's any kind of change in Bowman's position.

Bill Baruch said a lot of the "spend" is already in for T and he thinks it could start expanding margins. Weiss questioned if the stock's rally is tied to rates.

Bill said MCD's promotion plans aren't enough to get him "excited" about the stock, but he is interested in the digital marketing initiative.

Bill actually mentioned "BRICS," first time we've heard that term on the show in maybe years; Bill said those central banks are "buying gold hand over fist right now."

Dom Chu reported late in the show that Jim Simons has died at 86. Judge, Santoli and Weiss discussed Simons' legacy and impact on quant investing. "It was mathematical, it was statistical arbitrage," Santoli said.

Josh says utilities ‘caught fire’ as AI trade, but it will ‘end in tears’

Josh Brown opened Thursday's (5/9) Halftime Report saying SHOP and ABNB are "fine," but the outlook just wasn't as great as people hoped.

Liz Young said if we could "parse out" how much the rise in some of these tech stocks was multiple expansion vs. fundamentals, we'd find that what they're "giving back" is just multiple expansion.

Jim Lebenthal said the problem with chasing tech stocks is that "you lose sight of the fact that outside of technology, there's a lot (snicker) of areas of this economy and the stock market that are actually doing really well right now."

Josh said you have to decide if you're an "investor" or a "trader," and if you're a trader, are you a "momentum player" or something else. "If you're a momentum trader, you're in the utitlities right now," Josh said. He said "utilities caught fire as like an AI play," however, he said, "That's gonna end in tears by the way."

In what may have been the show's most intriguing suggestion/observation, Josh noted AMZN is at an all-time high; "this is the new Apple" and the name everyone is "chasing."

AMZN does seem a little bulletproof. (This writer has no position in AMZN.) And we wondered about Brown's comment when Bryn Talkington dialed in to discuss the "overreaction" to RBLX's guidance, suggesting she "will be adding" on Monday after giving it 3 days to cool off. Bryn said it's trading like a "Snapchat quarter." Honestly, we don't quite get why Bryn is so plugged in to this stock, especially as Josh noted, she can just buy AMZN and probably expect to do better.

Josh said the problem with RBLX is that it's "very lumpy."

Kevin Simpson sold some calls on AAPL, saying "we were purchasing it 164 2 weeks ago." He said "it gives us a little bit of a hedge to the downside," and he wouldn't "lose any sleep" if it got called at 195.

Kevin sold AVGO, calling it "fully valued."

Jim elucidates another argument for small caps

Judge on Thursday's (5/9) Halftime Report said Jeff DeGraaf is touting small caps, and Judge asked small-cap fan Jim Lebenthal for an opinion.

Jim said "I think it's right" and said he wanted to "elucidate" (snicker) that thesis a little more. Jim said the argument against small caps most often is higher rates, but it's a "trite phrase" because interest expense is not a big cost for these companies, it's really what rates might do to the broader economy.

Josh Brown said he was "drinking margaritas" with DeGraaf the day before Cinco de Mayo and that Jeff is looking for areas where "there's really no one left to sell."

However, Josh said the issue with small caps is that "the best companies in the index get promoted and leave," which means "over time, the small caps are actually some of the worst companies."

How many people has Jim encountered who told him they’re eager to buy a GM product

In a trade he wasn't too interested in defending, Josh Brown on Thursday's (5/9) Halftime Report discussed buying WBD, but with a stop loss, citing the no-one-left-to-sell argument.

We did hear Brown say "Now they're making money though on the streaming platform" (uh oh) and even mention "Hulu" (uh oh). Anyway, he thinks "the reward outweighs the risk."

Jim Lebenthal said he bought more DIS, claiming with a straight face that "streaming is the future (snicker) of this business." Jim acknowledged the linear headwinds but said linear companies are transitioning to streaming; "It's not the newspaper business" of the 1990s.

Jim actually suggested $70 for GM. (And once again, he just mentions "results" and buybacks and not any specific product that people are dying to get.)

TOST hit a 52-week high; Josh suggested maybe fears of competition are overblown.

Josh said the big success of the Berkshire meeting was showing that the "next generation" of company leaders are "ready, willing and able" (NOT a pun on Greg Abel's name) (then again, maybe it was) (have to think about the spelling of "able" there) to continue the work of Warren and Charlie.

Jim said RIG has regained all of its earnings knockdown; Jim said the stock is fairly valued until the "cold-stacked idle rigs" ... do something or other; then the stock will climb, Jim said.

Judge said PFE "hired a sell-side analyst," but it's not "the most bullish person on their stock," but rather the "opposite." Josh said "that's so gangster" and praised the company for adding a voice that may have helpful criticisms that can improve the leadership.

Bertha Coombs reported on News Update that Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. are "stepbrothers" of Barron Trump, and that Tiffany Trump is Barron's "stepsister." (Just because someone writes this copy doesn't mean the presenter has to say it.)

So much for all-day breakfast — people have ‘never heard’ McD’s make these kinds of comments about the consumer

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (5/8) Halftime Report waffled as to whether there's concern about discretionary spending.

Joe said there's a correlation between "off price" names such as TJX and ROST and yields.

Kari Firestone said DIS "raised price too much" at the parks. (But it's got a streaming platform that according to Weiss is going to be a "winner.")

Hours later on Fast Money, Grandpa Guy Adami, who's been complaining about the Fed/warning about the economy since Kiner was leading the Senior Circuit in home runs, said that while they've been doing the show 17 years, they've "never heard McDonald's say the things they've said over the last couple months in terms of their consumer."

Karen Finerman pointed out that in contrast to MCD, CMG is surging, "doing something right every single time."

"I'll say again," Guy said moments later. "The revisions (snicker) that we conin- continue to see with these job numbers, it's gonna catch up at some point."

Joe apologizes for something he needn’t apologize for, doesn’t know why his own ETF found SHOP a compelling buy

Judge on Wednesday's (5/8) Halftime noted that SHOP is in the JOET.

Joe declared, "This stock is technically and fundamentally broken." (The term used to be "penalty box," but since the JOET, Joe doesn't refer to "penalty box" anymore.)

(Note: We would say "sorry about the glum picture above," but that's exactly how Joe greeted viewers during the intros at the beginning of the show; this one's on Joe.)

Joe said the "larger question" for him is why "the rules" put it in the JOET. Joe said he found there's been a "reawakening" in emerging software companies including ZM, but this "reawakening" has a success rate that's actually "very low."

Joe said he probably wouldn't buy DDOG at 116, though he might if it moved higher.

Bill Baruch joined remotely to talk about his AAPL buy. Bill said there could be a "tailwind" into the Worldwide Developers Conference that lifts the stock past 190 in the next month.

Bill also added AMGN, which launched the group into a discussion about the diet drugs and whether users/insurers can keep paying for them forever, whether they be weekly shots or monthly, as AMGN's is. Kari Firestone said if AMGN's drug works, people wouldn't have to take it for the entire rest of their lives.

Joe said "the comps get easier for health care," and, "I'll apologize to the viewers: I fell asleep on this one. Merck." He said he got out "around 110 last year," now it's 130, and he hasn't yet gotten back in. (Yowza. He actually did not invest in a stock that's up less than 20% in 6 months.)

Kari says Belski might be ‘a little early’ on real estate

Kari Firestone on Wednesday's (5/8) Halftime Report talked up CNX, suggesting nat gas has "bottomed." (We've heard that before.)

Kari bought AFHTF, a stock that surely has never been mentioned on the show before; it's the top rival to URI, Kari said.

Joe Terranova again talked about how $65-$85 oil is the "sweet spot" for energy stocks.

Kari owns SHW and loves the Evercore upgrade. Joe said the JOET just added SQ, which Judge said is "increasingly likely" to join the S&P 500, according to Barclays. Joe lumped in SQ with his "reawakening" names he mentioned earlier.

ODFL got an upgrade from Baird; Joe said it's in the JOET, "and truckload is in a bad position right now," even though "the group trades at a premium to the S&P 500," or 12% above its 1-year average.

Kari said "TripAdvisor is a company in chaos."

Judge said Brian Belski has a new note claiming real estate is "oversold." Kari Firestone said that call "could be a little early." Shannon Saccocia said "you can be selective in this space."

Joe praised ANET. Kari said she sold ALGN when she was "starting to worry about China." Joe said the JOET unloaded ALGN at the end of April.

The Fast Money crew chuckled about Brian Chesky apparently blaming ABNB results on the "timing of Easter."

Pulling his leg: We forgot to post images last Friday from Bill Murray enjoying Santoli’s Midday Word at Berkshire meeting in Omaha

At the top of Wednesday's (5/8) Halftime Report, Judge wondered if the growth trade has headwinds.

Joe Terranova called the UBER reax "a great example of a measurement for sentiment and positioning (Zzzzzzz)." Joe said 92% of the analyst community has UBER as a buy. (This writer is long UBER.)

Much later in the show, Mike Santoli described UBER as a "supercrowded" hedge fund name that is spending gobs each quarter "on legal stuff."

Kari Firestone said it's not about whether the growth trade is "tired," it's whether stocks have run so much that "they're getting a little tired just of the ascent."

Kari noted that megacap earnings are up 39% while "the rest of the S&P" is at -3%, "so they are still pulling their weight."

Joe said if NVDA misses, "The market's going down."

Karen Finerman wonders about the timing of DIS’ good and bad quarters (as well as Howard’s letter ...)

It appeared during Tuesday's (5/7) Fast Money that you can count Karen Finerman among those wondering how lucky it was for DIS management to post a great quarter ahead of the proxy fight while saving the bad quarter for after the proxy fight was settled.

"I can't help but wonder, the timing of this release relative to the proxy fight ... now that it's over, not such a strong quarter." Karen said, chuckling that she might just be "overly, you know, conspiracy theorist or something."

Karen said there "could be some more downside" in the stock.

Tim Seymour asserted that "the streaming losses dynamic is still the most important part of this story." (But Steve Weiss claimed recently that DIS will be a "winner" in streaming. How many more years does it need.) (See below.)

Tim said Disney's linear business "sucks," then said "sorry for that."

But Karen wasn't done. Karen pointed out that these DIS results are for the quarter ended March 31, while the annual meeting was April 2, "so they had to have some sense of how this current quarter was going."

Karen also said it was "sort of odd" that Howard Schultz made his SBUX gripes public, explaining that it "certainly serves to undermine the CEO."

Adam Parker actually claims that investing in Megacap Tech carries ‘increasing risk’ (a/k/a Dinner with Dan Ives)

Judge said on Tuesday's (5/7) Halftime Report that Adam Parker issued a note about "increasing risk" in Megacap Tech investments, citing beta.

Jason Snipe said there could be something to it, but right now, "they're a safe haven."

Josh Brown said Adam "absolutely has a point" (snicker) but that beta issues matter differently to different investors.

Judge opened the show announcing that Bill Baruch (who wasn't one of the day's panelists) bought CRWD.

Bill connected remotely and said he had "stayed away from traditional cybersecurity" out of fear that "hyperscalers" would dominate. But Bill said he had a conversation with Dan Ives at dinner in February. Bill said Dan said, "I've been getting that question ever since Tom Brady was playing football at Michigan." Bill said that "spoke a lot to me" and convinced him he needed CRWD exposure.

Joe Terranova brought up PANW (the stock he loves to mention) and noted its "significant decline" in February, but he said CRWD has had a good recovery and recently was added to JOET, so Joe is "all in on the cybersecurity trade."

Joe outlined the difference between PLTR and DDOG. Joe said the JOET added PLTR at $16 in January. Joe said the free cash flow generation took a significant drop, and you'll have to be "patient." Joe said he'd be less excited about buying DDOG.

Josh hung a $200 on AMZN in Final Trades. Joe said there's "no stronger case" for momentum than in GRMN.

Brad Gerstner expects a ‘negotiated settlement’ over TikTok

Brad Gerstner, the star guest of Tuesday's (5/7) Halftime Report who was live from the Milken conference, actually brought up Larry Summers' opinion (snicker) on interest rates while describing pretty much the entire stock market/AI backdrop.

It was 24 minutes into the interview when Brad finally brought up his Invest America idea, the "401(k) from birth," the congressional prospects of which this page has already outlined (see below) (spoiler alert: Don't count on this passing either house of Congress). (There was nothing about The Board Challenge, which apparently is now defunct.)

Brad said it "makes sense" if someone wants to trim from AI-related names because of how great the stocks have already done year to date.

Judge asked Brad about META and its bad April. Brad pronounced META as "the single greatest benficiary of the AI boom" and pointed out its revenue growth since 2022.

Judge asked Brad, a recent critic of Alphabet, about that company. Brad said he actually bought Alphabet around $130 because of its declaration about making "structural changes." However, Brad said it needs to "get fit" and deal with competition.

Brad said his expectation is increasing that there will be "some negotiated settlement" with TikTok.

Jim says he doesn’t want an ‘inane conversation,’ but Judge insists it’s not inane

Shortly into Monday's (5/6) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal started talking up owning the IJR; Judge seemed to think Jim was claiming he bought it in December (he apparently did) when in fact, "You bought small caps recently," Judge insisted.

Jim clarified that he started in December, and "I did add to it recently."

Jim said he chose the IJR because it "purposely excludes the non-earning companies, because I didn't want to have this inane conversation which is what people throw at me every time I try to say this is a good- a good place-"

"My first time!" Rob Sechan cut in, for some reason.

"It's not an inane conversation," Judge cut in, saying that "every time" Jim argues that small caps are "the place to be," it's "not necessarily been the case."

Joe Terranova protested that "if we're prioritizing quality, the IJR should be outperforming the Russell."

Joe bluntly asserted, "The problem with small caps is they don't have the exposure to artificial intelligence." (We think that's a major reach, but it is an interesting argument.)

Jim shrugged, noting, "Artificial intelligence has been talked about now for 18 months, I mean, that could be a little long in the tooth at this point in time."

Steve Grasso still sees 3 rate cuts

Judge opened Monday's (5/6) Halftime Report asking Rob Sechan about the catalyst for the next rally.

Rob said "Momentum is with us here for now," but beyond that, it's about GDP revisions and earnings delivering. But he thinks we're in a "good spot" in the short term.

Jim Lebenthal contended that what Powell said last week "really pushes off the idea of the recession."

Jim conceded CVS had an "awful" report and the company's a "mess."

Judge asked Rob about selling CMCSA; Rob called it a "tax loss" to offset portfolio gains.

Bryn Talkington, participating remotely, said AAPL has just had an "extreme shift" in technicals.

In a point that wasn't made with enough completeness, Joe Terranova said Warren Buffett was just questioning if people would choose between "getting rid of their iPhone or maybe having 2 personal vehicles." Joe said Warren said people would get rid of the vehicle over the iPhone, one of the reasons being the existence of UBER.

If we understand that question correctly, it sounds like Warren Buffett is asking people with 2 cars (presumably households of 2 or more people), if they had to get rid of either one of the cars or their iPhone, they'd choose the car. We're not sure why anyone would be faced with that decision, and we're not sure how the answer would be any different than the answer from 80 years ago.

Judge did break his streak of mentioning that Toni Sacconaghi says to "buy the fear" in AAPL that, had it occurred Monday, would've been about the 5th or 6th day in a row.

After the A Block, Judge was jabbing Jim about BRK.A selling PARA and calling it a "dud"; Judge told Jim, "At least they sold it," prompting chuckles around the table.

Judge noted that Jim, Rob and Joe all own VRTX. Rob and Jim wouldn't explain why it's underperforming. Joe told Judge the stock is underperforming "because of the potential $5 billion deal with Alpine." Jim insisted the stock's been a "home run" prior to 2024.

Briefly discussing DIS, Jim brought up, once again, Hulu (Zzzzzzzzzz).

Tyler Mathisen on The Exchange praised Judge for the "quickest Final Trades ever."

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso said he still expects rate cuts in 2024. "I'm still betting we're gonna have 3," Steve said.

Judge yet again says that Toni Sacconaghi (who hadn’t been mentioned on the show prior to this week in probably more than a year) says ‘buy the fear’ in AAPL

The Legend of Tony Pasquariello surfaced again on Friday's (5/3) Halftime Report. Tony, whose notes have become a daily soundbite for Judge like Santoli's Midday Wrap, apparently thinks the market is in "choppy waters" and recommends "simplify your portfolio" and own Megacap Tech and other obvious choices.

Steve Weiss said he appreciates how Tony arrives at his conclusions; Weiss said "there's no point in getting over your skis here," he doesn't see the market "running away to the upside."

Weiss said the market multiple is the type of multiple you get during easy monetary policy.

Judge had opened the show declaring the market got "a perfect jobs report for the bulls and for the Fed." Weiss agreed it's not any more complicated than that. Weiss said Powell gave a "very dovish" press conference.

Kevin Simpson said that in the morning at the open, "We wrote a covered call in Apple." Weiss said, "You know, Apple would have no earnings growth without their buybacks. It's all financial engineering."

Judge claimed with a straight face that for AAPL, "AI may very well be what leads to the next great refresh cycle."

Late in the show, Judge called Mike Tirico an "NBC Sports legend." When Mike reported from Churchill Downs, Mike impressively pointed out one reason why Bob Baffert may not be at the Derby this year (it's the 150th anniversary and they don't want controversy).

Weiss said he bought more GS on both Wednesday and Thursday.

Judge opened the latter half of the show returning from a commercial and stating, "Berkshire Hathaway's annhole (sic) share- annual shareholder meeting kicking off less than 24 hours from now ..."

‘I don’t think the correction’s over’

Honestly, this page really couldn't discern a headline from Thursday's (5/2) Halftime Report, so we're basically just going to report it chronologically.

Judge opened asking Josh Brown, "Did a more dovish Fed chair just settle the market for another leg up?" Judge quoted Powell, "I don't see the stag — or the flation."

Josh said "the Fed doubled down" on the outlook being 1 or 2 or zero cuts.

Liz Young said "we're either getting a hold, or a cut."

Brian Belski said "we are transitioning to normality" (snicker) and said he was "completely confused" about the chatter of raising rates heading into the meeting.

However, "I don't think the correction's over, by the way. I think we have a little bit more to go," Belski said, saying calls for just a 5% drop are "too cutesy."

Judge aired a clip of Jeffrey Gundlach bringing up a common slogan a day earlier on Closing Bell: "I don't like really risk- risky stuff, because I think higher for longer is gonna start takin'- taking some of the bodies out." (Sounds like more of Steve Weiss' lag effect.)

As for the day's big earnings report that was yet to happen, Josh Brown said the market just has to realize that companies as big as AAPL can't grow as fast as smaller companies.

Judge even mentioned that Toni Sacconaghi advised earlier this week to "buy the fear," the 2nd reference to Toni this week after seemingly years without one. Belski said he's focused on AAPL tailwinds, not headwinds, said AAPL is "humble" about AI and predicted AAPL will "crush it."

As for reasons to upgrade a phone, Josh joked, "I need a 5th lens like I need a 3rd nipple. ... Am I in trouble now?"

(Later, Closing Bell featured Joe Terranova and Bryn Talkington. Judge brought up the rebalancing in the 2nd minute. Joe again explained (for different viewers, apparently) why the JOET ditched AAPL. Joe said he can't remember quarterly expectations for AAPL being so low. Bryn said 172 has been support for AAPL. Judge mentioned Toni's "buy the fear" yet again (for those who haven't already heard it). Joe said he'd be "surprised" if AAPL delivers a "weak quarter" and the stock sells. Joe was correct; the stock rose.) (This review was posted overnight Thursday-Friday.)

Meanwhile, Josh declared PFE "one of the most mispriced securities in the market right now." Belski said "I think it's dead money." Belski said PFE needs an "entire year" to right the ship.

Right after the A Block, Josh said he sold EBAY because "earnings were weak" and the stock is "basically sitting on support."

Belski talked up REGN. Josh said SHAK is "one of my biggest winners ever personally."

Judge hailed Josh's start-of-the-year contrarian Trade of KWEB, which Brown doesn't even own. Josh cited Jim Grant, "Good things happen to cheap assets." Josh said he still thinks it's a contrarian play and China thinks those stocks need to work. Liz Young said her concern is that it goes "nowhere."

Brian Belski noted, "The whole energy sector is 3% of the S&P, that's uh, about half the size of Apple." Josh Brown touted IEO. Liz said, "I like energy a lot."

Judge wished Belski a happy birthday during Final Trades.

Steve Liesman basically declares that inflation is a free-market issue, not a government/Federal Reserve issue

Every day, there is lots of commentary on CNBC about the Federal Reserve and inflation. (And some of it's bogus.)

So we were practically astounded to hear CNBC's Steve Liesman during Wednesday's (5/1) Halftime Report telling Judge what is basically the absolute truth about inflation.

"What is supposed to happen? Well maybe this is what's happening: Companies raise prices, prices get too high, too hot, and people back off buying it, and that causes companies to eventually reduce their prices or compress their margins. ... That's a process that normally happens."

And we thought it was Jay Powell who makes people buy things.

We were hoping Steve would address whatever happened to the "lag effect," a concept that Steve Weiss is always talking about, from those 2008-2020 ZIRP rates of ... 12 years, but we're grateful that Steve Liesman said what he did.

Liesman even added, "The Fed is not gonna solve the inflation problem the American people care about, which is the price level. It's targeting the rate."

We'll put it another way. Everyone notices the car tire is going flat. The Fed stops the car. The Fed doesn't change the tire.

Steve also said Larry Summers has the "more extreme ideas" of rates not being "sufficent" to bring down inflation.

Steve pointed to SBUX' results as a sign of economic headwinds. Judge pointed out that Chipotle raised prices, and its report a week ago was a lot different than SBUX's.

Steve Weiss tried to claim that "competition" is hurting SBUX; Judge scoffed that the comps weren't down by this "magnitude ... as a result of competition."

"Inflation is a domestic problem," offered Joe Terranova, stating it's coming down "aggressively" in the "rest of the world."

Jeffrey Gundlach on Closing Bell told Judge he doesn't see more than one rate hike this year.

Judge says stocks cast aside by the JOET may be ‘troughing’

The day after Joe's quarterly rebalancing of the JOET quite frankly is not one of our favorite Halftime Report days, given that it ends up being about a half an hour of Joe telling Judge that the computer detects a loss of momentum. We honestly can't figure out why Judge is asking Joe about decisions Joe's computer is making; why doesn't Judge just ask the computer.

Judge on Wednesday (5/1) said the "big news" of the day is JOET rebalancing; Judge said the biggest move is that the JOET sold AAPL and TSLA.

Joe said AAPL was bought at 169 and sold at 170, "basically a scratch." Joe cited "declining revenue growth."

Viewers also learned that the JOET sold LLY. Joe said he would've preferred it stay in; Joe called LLY "probably a $900 stock" at some point.

Judge wondered if the "danger" in the JOET strategy is that things appearing to lose momentum actually may be "troughing." Joe said if the strategy is working, it "corrects that mistake" in the next rebalance. (That's encouraging — miss on a stock, wait 3 months to maybe play catch-up.)

Joe said of AMD, "There was obviously a (sic not 'an') overbought condition." Judge was obsessed with the AMD fundamentals. Joe pointed out that the AMD earnings were released after the JOET rebalancing.

Joe says market going ‘nowhere’ for months (a/k/a Jim Cramer complains about service at Starbucks)

While Wall Street and beyond tries to figure out exactly what Jay Powell means on days such as Wednesday (5/1), the Halftime Report crew was sorta wondering the same thing regarding Joe Terranova's assessment of the stock market.

"I think the firm landing is here," Joe stated, adding he doesn't see the Fed putting another rate hike on the table and thinks it won't be "too disruptive" on Wednesday to the markets.

Judge asked what that means. Joe continued, "I actually think you get the rate cut at some point in 2023."

Steve Weiss said it sounds like Joe was implying the market is a "buying opportunity." Joe said "the market's gonna run to a lot of different places over the next several months and ultimately go nowhere"; for now, "5% either way," it's a "coin flip."

Well, given that, honestly, we gotta wonder, shouldn't the JOET dump all its stocks and buy bonds to make some guaranteed interest until August or so?

Weiss said he's in the camp of "wait for opportunities." Weiss is suddenly claiming again the lag effect of rates, citing "this tightening policy that's been going on for a really long time right now and should've hit the economy sooner but hasn't because of all the policy liquidity that's put into the market."

Judge said Jan Hatzius is still predicting rate cuts this year, "probably twice."

On Fast Money, Mel was obviously told to highlight what she described as the "cringeworthy" Cramer/Faber SBUX interview from Squawk on the Street.

‘I think we’ve had 1 bout of stagflation in, like, 50 years’

Extending a dry season in Halftime Report subject matter, Judge opened Tuesday's (4/30) show hinting at stagflation.

Stephanie Link declared it's "way too premature to talk about stagflation." Judge wondered why, if things are so great for the consumer as Stephanie indicated, consumer confidence is so weak. Stephanie said there are "ebbs and flows."

"I don't think stagflation is the issue," Jim Lebenthal offered. Jim said he remembers the '70s, and, "This just doesn't remind me of it."

Judge told Jim and Stephanie that they seem to be "explaining away it all." Stephanie fired back with more stats.

Josh Brown, taking part in the show remotely, asserted "there's no stagflation."

Josh in fact said we have to be "really careful" about "prophecying stagflation." Judge said about 3-4 times, "No one's calling for it," but Judge said it's "obviously" in the conversation.

Josh said tech and discretionary stocks wouldn't be where they're at if the market believed the "stagflation narrative." Judge protested that they've only spent "a day" or just "a few hours" discussing stagflation, not "days and weeks." (Just wait.) (Well, actually, the "higher for longer" narrative didn't last for very long, nor did the notion of higher rates being stimulative, nor did the notion of (not an actual quote) "Steve Mnuchin wouldn't be in NYCB if there wasn't value there.")

Later, after cycling through an AMZN preview and another go-round on chips, Judge brought in Steve Liesman for a Fed preview. Steve told Judge, "You know, Scott, I'm sort of curious as to why stagflation has become such a go-to possibility. ... I think we've had 1 bout of stagflation in, like, 50 years."

LYV fan Josh Brown quoted the Deutsche Bank bull call, which apparently says the "most likely outcome" of regulatory scrutiny is stagflation pro-consumer reforms that won't be "materially disruptive" to the business. Josh said that under $100, LYV is a "gift."

Jim said more Wall Street analysts should've started believing in C "a long time earlier."

Josh Brown asked Jim why RIG hasn't done a reverse split. Jim suggested it's because "it's so darn volatile." Judge chuckled off all the technical glitches during Final Trade.

Steve Grasso on Fast Money said he "just recently noticed" that Amazon Prime now costs $140 a year.

Jim says the robotaxi is a ‘huge canard’

Judge returned to the Halftime Report helm on Monday (4/29), but the show couldn't have been sleepier.

We're not even sure what to begin with.

Adam Parker, the star guest (that's correct), is ... just not quite as bullish as maybe he recently was.

Strapped or desperate for headline material, Judge actually brought in Adam remotely in the 9th minute to discuss Adam's "bit of a pivot" (that was Judge's term) from a more bullish outlook to what Adam described as a "more balanced" risk/reward positioning, partly because of stalling in China.

Adam cautioned that if "stagflation" gets more into the everday "vernacular," that's trouble.

At another moment, Judge brought up Toni Sacconaghi, whose name Judge hasn't mentioned in ages, saying Toni is advising buying the fear in AAPL. Joe "Rebalancing" Terranova said of AAPL, "In the near term to me, the technicals don't look good (Zzzzzzz)." Jim Lebenthal said he disagrees with Toni's timing; Jim doesn't want to buy in front of earnings.

Judge even mentioned something about Jonathan Krinsky (who's not on the program very often anymore) (that's what happens when bear markets become bull markets) seeing "flags" raised, but Judge admitted, "Let's be honest: The technicians since the October bottom have been run over by the bull train."

Judge opened the program saying he's "not so sure" sentiment has changed a whole lot given that the previous week didn't feel as great as it apparently was (Zzzzzzzzzz). Joe Terranova said this is a big week because of AMZN.

Jim noted his year-end S&P target is 5,100, and that's where the S&P is at right now.

Joe said, "I think you're gonna see money managers be risk-averse (Zzzzzzzzz)," which Joe said is the "right disposition" for "several months."

Jim said he's waiting for an "entry point" on UBER. (This writer is long UBER.) Joe asked Jim about buying in reaction to Tesla's robotaxi issues. Jim said the robotaxi is a "huge canard" in this space.

Courtney calls Weiss ‘Jim’ and ‘Joe’

On Friday's (4/26) Halftime Report, guest hosted by Courtney Reagan, Josh Brown discussed buying NFLX. (This writer is long NFLX.)

"Right now it's a trade," Brown said. He said he's "done this before with Netflix," when it "blew up" in April 2022 and was "one of the best buying opportunities" that year for a large cap growth name.

Brown said, "I can't believe that we saw reaction like we did about them reducing the subscriber guidance. It's such a childish metric to begin with."

Steve Weiss said he's got a "small position" (snicker) in NFLX and that Brown "laid it out perfectly, very articulately." Weiss said his long-term rationale for NFLX is that "you're seeing the competitors fall by the wayside." Despite what he said a while back at DIS' streaming prospects (check our archives), Weiss said "Disney'll be a winner in it, but that's it." (Really. How will they be a "winner" in it. Are there more costs to cut?)

Weiss bought more META at 416, citing the slogan "Scared money don't make money."

Jim Lebenthal's buying more NVDA but "not adding big positions." Bryn Talkington praised that move and said "All roads lead to Nvidia."

Josh Brown said the "optics" of Alphabet have been "horrendous" and that the company "almost looks like a college campus." But there's a "tailwind" from AI and ad spending.

In the 17th minute, Courtney first called Weiss "Jim," then "Joe," without correcting herself.

Bryn said BHP is in the "penalty box" and outlined the copper/iron scene. Courtney said, "Wow, lot of angles to that story, Bryn."

Josh Brown explained how MTTR, despite surging Friday on deal news, was a bad trade for him because he bought it in 2021.

At the end of the show, Weiss said he unloaded all of his bitcoin, basically it sounded like he thought the trade had run its course.

We did catch Thursday's (4/25) Halftime, guest hosted by Courtney, but we weren't exactly paying close attention what with the NFL Draft in the works that day. We did notice Bill Baruch saying he added to META before the quarterly report, but he's not (yet) adding more after the selloff. Bill said it'll be essential for META to spend on AI, and he thinks election-season spending will boost later-in-the-year results.

Elon was either ‘the adult in the room,’ or a master manipulator

In the 16th minute of Wednesday's (4/24) Halftime Report, Judge brought up TSLA.

Bryn Talkington said she said a day earlier on Closing Bell that she wouldn't short the stock into earnings, "I thought it was a very good earnings call. Elon was like the adult in the room (snicker)."

Bryn said "I don't wanna hear about robotaxis" but that Tesla can build a cheaper car on the "same theoretical chassis." Bryn thinks the stock will "find a floor."

Then Judge turned to Steve Weiss, who famously clashed with Bryn on this subject a week ago. "She had a brilliant call going into the quarter," Weiss said, revealing he covered "half" of his short going into the quarter.

But as for fundamentals, Weiss said it was "as if Elon sat in a room with, uh, with the CFO and said 'What can we say that's going to- that's going to hit everybody's hot button, put their fears aside and have those announcements not really take place, the productivity of those announcements, for a few quarters or a few years or a decade, and let them hang on to the dream."

"We've seen this movie before," Judge said of TSLA.

Weiss conceded Musk is "one of the top entrepreneurs of all time." Weiss said his own TSLA stake is a "very small position" and he "cut it more after the opening," but "at this point, it's a nuisance." (Translation: The trade went against him.)

Judge then asked Joe Terranova about TSLA in one of the longest, Marichal-esque windups of all time, asking Joe, "Take me through the thought process" (sigh). Joe started off by noting the stock is "27% below its 200-day moving average," always a favorite stat of CNBCers. Joe then said "Bryn" 4 times while trying to describe what Bryn is thinking about TSLA. Joe said he himself is "extremely (snicker) neutral" on TSLA.

Could be the catalyst — or could drop like NFLX

Judge started off Wednesday's (4/24) Halftime Report comparing expectations for earnings growth between Mag 7 and the rest of the market. "This is unbelievable," Judge claimed with a straight face.

Joe Terranova said META "could be the near-term catalyst for the market." On the other hand, "it could be a scenario similar to Netflix." (This writer is long NFLX.)

Steve Weiss said after the A Block that he bought more NFLX. "Still a small position," he said, as he says every time.

As for tech earnings, Weiss contended, "It's still clearly on, on, on Alphabet, is where the pressure is" and where the "daggers are lining up."

Weiss said META has the "easiest pathway to showing the impact of AI."

Joe said if META, MSFT and GOOGL fell, he'd buy the dip. Bryn Talkington said "theoretically" she'd buy the dip in MSFT, but it's "very very very unlikely Microsoft even has a dip." She wouldn't buy Alphabet though; "I don't know who runs this company."

Weiss called VRT "the safest way to play AI growth."

Leslie Picker reported on the latest Greenlight letter. Judge emphasized that Einhorn doesn't think value investing is "dead," just the value investing INDUSTRY is "dead," a catchy slogan that David has been dispensing that doesn't really make any sense.

On Closing Bell, Adam Parker revealed he's more bullish now than he was at the beginning of the month.

Karen says ‘so many things to not like’ at TSLA

In an episode of the Halftime Report on Tuesday (4/23) that was basically Jim's Greatest Hits (Zzzzzzz), the most interesting news was Judge reporting that Jamie Dimon was speaking at the New York Economic Club and that Jamie pronounced the economy "booming" and said it has been "booming for a while."

So there you go.

Jim Lebenthal said if the market drops by only 2%, "it is very unwise to sell in anticipation of that."

In the 10th minute, Jim started talking up cyclical stocks and "strong demand," including airlines. Judge threatened to walk off the set if Jim mentioned "TSA." Jim continued, "There have been only 4 days this year where TSA passenger counts-"

"I'm out," Judge chuckled, standing up and sort of taking off his mike before reattaching. (He didn't actually walk off the set.)

"There's only 4 days this year where there has been lower passenger counts than last year," Jim finally continued.

Judge pointed out that Jim bought small caps last week, while the Russell is down 6% this month. Jim insisted that small caps "were actually up on Friday."

CNBC's Kate Rooney briefly joined remotely to discuss people taking short bets against the "Magnificant" (sic) (there were a couple mispronunciations, then the correct version) 7. Kate suggested that shorting Megacap Tech may be for hedging purposes.

Jim once again dismissed TSLA as a "car company." On Fast Money, after the TSLA results were out, Karen Finerman said there are "so many things to not like here" that, according to Karen, the company decided to "distract you" from the bad things by talking about lower-priced cars. Tim Seymour called the late TSLA gains a "relief rally."

Meanwhile, Jason Snipe bought "a small position" in UBER; "they are hitting on all cylinders." (This writer is long UBER.)

After the A Block, Judge brought up CLF and said it's "gotten more mention (snicker) on this program than arguably anything else in the history of this broadcast." Jim addressed Tuesday's CLF selloff as "sometimes the market does things that are unexplainable and gives you an opportunity. And (of course) I think this is one of those times." Eventually Jim conceded a "slight decrease in buying ... after the UAW strike." But "that is behind us," Jim said.

But Jim wasn't done about the UAW or another of his favorite stocks, GM. "This idea that the UAW took GM to the cleaners is an absolute farce," Jim said, though conceding "the UAW got a good deal."

Judge said DIS was "reitermated" (sic) (snicker) by Wells Fargo as overweight before correcting himself. Jim mentioned the "Hulu deal" again.

Judge noted the slide Tuesday of JBLU, long one of Jenny Harrington's favorite stocks for valuation. (Jenny wasn't on the show Tuesday.)

Judge's top guest on Closing Bell was Liz Ann Sonders, who kind of knocked the "parlor game" of guessing when the rate cuts start.

Bill is able to talk about buying TSLA without Weiss hectoring him about admitting all the facts (a/k/a Judge thinks it’s funny saying ‘squat’)

On a quiet episode of the Halftime Report on Monday (4/22), Joe Terranova said if Mag 7 earnings come through, he's not sure there's "that much downside" left in the market.

Joe doesn't think it looks like the same upside as we had from autumn into February, "but I do think the market's trying to bottom here."

Joe said he's not seeing "broad-based, universal selling," pointing to gains in health care.

Steve Weiss said Monday's market only had a "muted bounce" because of "PCE" on Friday. (Note: If Weiss had waited 3 hours, he would've seen more than a "muted bounce.") (This review was posted overnight Monday-Tuesday.)

Judge said Powell last week "sort of front-ran where PCE's gonna be."

Judge declared, "PCE's your friend. CPI's been your enemy."

The headline of the hour was Bill Baruch's dial-in to discuss buying TSLA during which Bill mentioned "dollar-cost average in" (snicker).

Bill said TSLA hit a March 2020 trend line low of 140.

Judge scoffed that he was going to have Weiss have a talk with Bill, "One of my problems with technical analysis is, Trend lines don't mean squat if the fundamentals of a story change."

Bill said he's not arguing with that; he's taking a "calculated position."

Bill also scooped up some more META, he thinks "they could have a really good report."

Kevin Simpson bought more AAPL, at 165. "We will buy more on weakness," Kevin said. Kevin said he's got "about 10% dry powder right now."

Weiss sold ASML; he said he sold part before the earnings. Weiss rattled off the other tech names he's got and how he finds this one expendable, though he could still jump back in before earnings.

Joe said he needs more of a washout to step in to CDNS.

Santoli said, "The bond market has done nothing for a week."

CNBC's AI (er, spellcheck) had trouble with the ARK Venture holdings during ETF Edge.

‘Jay Powell can’t do anything about the price of anyone’s car insurance’

Friday's (4/19) Halftime Report featured a couple of provocative comments about the state of the U.S. economy and what interest-rate moves actually accomplish.

Joe Terranova said Josh Brown (who wasn't on Friday's show) has been talking about, and Joe has been speaking "privately" with financial advisors about, "Are higher rates actually stimulating the economy."

Joe said AXP earnings are "evidence" that there's something to that theory.

This is becoming a popular theory and Judge even mentioned it this week. But we can't help but note that numerous people on this program in 2022 and early 2023 kept talking about how "the end of free money" was going to be so bad for so many ("lazy," according to one pundit) companies. But now, it's apparently boosting the economy, which keeps inflation high. (That's the whole #chasingtails thing.)

Bill Baruch said he thinks 3 cuts in 2024 are "on the table." Stephanie Link though said "I don't think they're gonna cut at all this year."

Guest host Sully, The Funniest Anchor on CNBC (and quite possibly the Funniest Anchor on All of Television) (#paytheman,KC!) bluntly declared, "Jay Powell can't do anything about the price of anyone's car insurance." That's a fantastic observation and one that deserved a lot more conversation. #chasingtailsagain #giveeveryonearaisetodealwithinflation

In a bit of a head-scratcher, Bill curiously claimed that "there's also people moving into more of an entrepreneurship-type role, distorting the job market."

Hmmmm ... "entrepreneurship-type role" ... we're guessing it probably means something like people who were laid off, or people who started working from home in 2020 and didn't want to return to the office, are either turning to freelancing or selling stuff on YouTube rather than taking up traditional jobs.

We doubt it means that a bunch more people from Google or Meta are launching their own companies than usual, given that borrowing costs are a lot higher than a few years ago.

Joe noted it's Friday, and we have "a lot of systematic, algorithm selling that's going to occur on a Friday."

Bill Baruch actually said with a straight face, "After the election, no matter who wins, as we look into next year, they're gonna have to crack down (snicker) on this fiscal spending in general."

Bad bargains: Spending ‘mental capital’ on PARA

Jim Lebenthal joined Friday's (4/19) Halftime Report remotely about halfway through and congratulated guest host Sully on a "great A Block."

Jim was apparently extended an invitation to talk about PARA. While we totally understand extending an invitation to Jim, we don't understand having another discussion about this stock.

Jim claimed there's "2 huge positives" for PARA. One was that it's doing better than expected "operationally" (even though all it's probably done is cut costs); the other is that, Jim claims, "People wanna buy (snicker) this company." Jim went on about how Shari wants to do a deal with SkyDance and how that's pressuring the stock, way too deep into the weeds about a stock that doesn't matter and is little more than some rich legacy's personal bank account and that no one including Jim should care about.

Joe Terranova impressively had the brass to ask Jim if all the "mental capital" he has spent on PARA has been worth it. "Absolutely not," Jim admitted, calling it a "great question." Jim conceded "this has been an absolute horror show" and "frankly I'm embarrassed by it," but not too embarrassed to discuss it on nearly every episode.

Meanwhile, Joe said "don't chase" UAL. Sully told United, "You're welcome," because "I've been on like 40 flights already this year."

Joe's Final Trade was supposed to be UBER; he called it "Uner" (sic) but corrected himself. (This writer is long UBER.) Joe said, "Don't be afraid of the pullback."

If Joe’s interest in being long NFLX is based on whether the insufferable quarterly subs miss or beat, he might as well be buying lottery tickets

Joe Terranova on Friday's (4/19) Halftime Report said he wasn't happy about NFLX because "I stuck my neck out yesterday on, um, on Closing Bell and I said they're gonna deliver on margins, they're gonna deliver on the profitability, you're gonna see one of the strongest quarters that you've had for this company since 2020."

And then, in one of CNBCers' favorite pastimes, Joe noted Friday, "I pointed out the fact that it was 13% below its all-time high." (This writer is long NFLX, like Steve Weiss a "small position," as of Friday.) (#thankyou,market)

But Joe said the company decided to "change all the rules on me" as to releasing subscriber data.

Guest host Sully said Joe was actually "right, on the, on the metrics." Sully said Laura Martin is "probably the most influential analyst on Netflix" and upgraded the stock on Friday.

Joe protested that he's not advising people sell the stock, he's just "disappointed in what I heard yesterday afternoon."

Joe completely whiffed on the strength of this company; the reason to buy the stock is because people who subscribe to the service would pay a lot more for it than they currently are. (But note, this writer has a small position in NFLX.)

Joe tries to claim that commodities are in a ‘secular phase’ in which they presumably won’t bust

It's always a setback when Judge has the day off, but Halftime Report viewers on Friday (4/19) got a treat when Sully, The Funniest Anchor on CNBC, got the helm.

"I'm clearly not Scott Wapner," Sully said at the opening, noting tech was "getting hit" and someone (apparently Stephanie Link) came up before the show and coined the term "ABT," for "Anything But Technology." Sully started off though by asking Stephanie about SLB (Zzzzzzz) and of course got the earnings and EBIT percentage gains and the multiple and (as always on CNBC) how far down it is from its high and all sorts of other stats.

But it wasn't until the 12th minute of the program that Joe Terranova said the market's "in a very precarious place," noting AAPL at a 6-month low and saying Megacap Tech has to "deliver."

Joe earlier suggested that "for the very first time," commodities are maybe no longer "boom bust" but "entering a phase, a secular phase, where they belong in investor portfolios."

Sully told everyone that "energy is my jam," but it was producers' decision, not his, to bring it up to start the show. Sully claimed "even the most bearish estimates" for oil have it "growing" for years and maybe decades. Joe advised, "Do not look at the spot price of oil as the ultimate referendum on what you're doing in investing in energy. You have to look at the long term."

Joe said oil is in backwardation and acknowledged "there could be some headwinds on price itself," but as long as it's $70-$85, it's "so beneficial" to oil companies.

Josh seems to indicate that shorting TSLA is a bad idea

On Thursday's (4/18) Halftime Report, Judge couldn't resist recapping the Weiss-Bryn debate on TSLA from a day earlier, despite the fact neither one of those parties was on Thursday's show.

So Judge turned to Josh Brown. Josh noted that TSLA right now is "still up 770% over 5 years" and that he "missed the entire run higher." Brown noted Weiss being short probably has his "finger on the trigger" (translation: once this trade goes bad, Steve will get out of it quickly), but for most people, shorting TSLA is like "playing with fire" and brings to mind the old adage, "Never fight a land war in Asia."

"It is just a car company," Jim Lebenthal insisted of TSLA, as all the skeptics out there insist that now's the time for the chickens coming home to roost (as Weiss said) and for victory laps. Jim said margins are coming down and that TSLA is "locked into a price war."

Josh opened the show agreeing with Judge's suggestion that the market needs Big Tech. "Spiritually, this is still the leadership group," Brown stated.

Liz Young cautioned that "investors have really high expectations" and pointed to JPM's reax to earnings.

Jim bought more AMZN after buying a little a couple of months ago. Jim was talking about MSFT's PEG ratio. (Zzzzzzzzz)

Dividend investor Matt Powers talked up MA, he said its dividend isn't as high as he'd like, but that the dividend has grown 27% a year for 10 years, so "they've got a lot of space to grow." He also likes HSY for "cocoa prices."

Powers told Josh Brown that the difference between his analysis and the aristocrats' is that the aristocrats are evaluated over 25 years while he sticks to 10 years.

Weiss calls Musk ‘pathological liar’; ‘You just don’t like Elon’

Judge and producers of Wednesday's (4/17) Halftime Report decided to pit Bryn Talkington and Steve Weiss in a TSLA debate, and at least Weiss participated.

Bryn recapped her TSLA plays since January 2023 and admitted, "This stock could go lower" and "looks broken." But she wouldn't "discount" Elon Musk. Bryn suggested Weiss' TSLA short is "probably a trade."

That sounded pretty plain vanilla. But maybe it was the "probably a trade" remark (which assuredly is true) that got under Weiss' skin.

Weiss questioned how Bryn as a "fiduciary" of investor capital can invest in a company with "no governance." Bryn said she owns it "personally" and it's "not a fiduciary position."

(That's interesting, actually. Is Weiss correct that people shouldn't be in this name as fiduciaries?)

Bryn further stated, "I think you just don't like Elon."

Weiss responded, "Everything I said is a fact, Bryn. It's a fact." Bryn offered that "the 2 companies where ... the best engineers want to work are SpaceX and Tesla." Judge started to ask Weiss about TSLA's governance; Weiss pivoted to say the fundamentals, especially in China, are "horrendous."

Weiss even said, "The guy is a pathological liar to keep his stock price up."

"Once again, you just don't like Elon, by the way," Bryn said.

Moments later, Weiss stated, "Bryn's entirely wrong about their ability to retain talent," pointing to the departure this week of "2 critical people" and stating turnover at TSLA is "legendary."

Judge noted how much TSLA is up over 5 years. Weiss protested twice he hasn't been short the stock for all of the last 5 years, only recently.

Weiss asked about Tesla price cuts in the last 5 years. Bryn concluded with this thought-provoking summary: "Steve. Wisdom is chasing you if you would just stop. OK. Like, seriously."

"What the hell is she saying? I don't even get it," Weiss said. "Just admit you're wrong and the stock is going lower. And I'll buy more lower. That's what she should be saying. Facts are facts."

"There's no 'fact' to the stock is doing anything from here," Judge said. Weiss continued, and Judge said, "Bryn, we'll see."

"Yeah, we will," Bryn chuckled.

Weiss is back to talking about the lag effects of rate hikes

Wednesday (4/17) was a bit of a retro day on CNBC's Halftime Report, as Joe Terranova was talking about time corrections again and Steve Weiss was talking about lag effects of rate hikes again.

Joe started off the show warning, "First of all, you have to understand, time is the enemy, because this correction could be more prolonged than we have become accustomed to, uh, in, in recent years."

Joe said to be "patient," but if you have to do something now, look for industries with "pricing power." But Joe also stated, "There's a couple areas of the market that you absolutely need to avoid."

Jason Snipe suggested being long energy, which he said has "pricing power."

Bryn Talkington said if your "playbook" found it "necessary" to have rate cuts, "you absolutely need to kind of throw that playbook out."

Bryn advised, "Think about selling some calls" for pressured stocks, among other things.

Then Weiss got his chance. "I think the dialogue's all wrong here," Weiss said, explaining, "There's a time to invest, and there's a time to protect your cash and protect your holdings and protect your capital overall. This is that time. ... The market's gonna go low."

OK. That really sounds like Weiss is suggesting selling.

But other times on the program, Weiss will explain how he never wants to sell anything because then he pays taxes.

Now, he's suggesting timing the market and reducing exposure.

Weiss said there are firms still looking for "3 cuts this year."

"I don't know what planet they're living on, but come to Planet Halftime," Weiss said, adding, "I've taken my net exposure down to about 20%."

Weiss noted the government has put in "a lot of liqudity," and wondered whether a Republican administration would keep doing that (snicker), concluding, "I think they cut it back (snicker)."

As for the slide we're already in, "4%'s not enough for a correction!" Weiss claimed.

Judge noted that Jay Powell hasn't said anything about hiking rates again. Weiss said, "It's the impact of higher rates for longer. You don't need hikes."

"We've gotta hear about that again? Of the lag effects of the rate hikes?" Judge wondered.

"Yeah. Absolutely (snicker)," Weiss said.

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso said, "I still think we get 3 cuts."

There’s actually other people whom wisdom might be chasing ...

Mike Santoli on Wednesday's (4/17) Halftime Report described the stock market this way: "The dip buyers are patient, and the sellers are motivated."

Joe Terranova said 5 of the Mag 7 report earnings next week, which is "really gonna define the direction of this market."

Joe said to avoid utilities and REITs and said the Russell is 20% below its all-time high; he "wouldn't touch" it.

But Joe also said there's "another Treasury refunding" on May 1, and previous ones have been "positive catalysts."

Judge questioned the impact of a 5% 10-year. Steve Weiss said equity investors will lock up 5% rates in the 2-year, not the 10-year. Jason Snipe suggested maybe the 2% Fed target will move to 3%.

Weiss trimmed ASML, saying we got "more than a miss" than the Street was expecting.

"Nvidia's in correction territory," Joe asserted.

Weiss said AAPL is "dead money at best."

Joe said UAL was benefitting from "low expectations."

Jason said "pay sharing" is the key metric for NFLX. Weiss for the 4th or 5th time said he only has a "small position" in NFLX.

Judge, Jim trade ‘C’mon!’

Honestly, for whatever reason, we couldn't really get "into" Tuesday's (4/16) Halftime Report. Just one of those days.

Judge and Jim Lebenthal argued at the end of the A Block about "cherry-picking" time frames to prove how strong, or not strong, NVDA and the Mag 7 are. Jim apparently at one point was trying to make an argument for small caps.

Josh Brown said he's been thinking the government headwinds on LYV have "already been fully discounted into the market," even though Tuesday's market action indicated otherwise.

Jim said the fundamentals of GPC should be "intact" because, "We know the average age of cars on the road is very long, uh, those cars need to be repaired." He already said it a few days ago (see below), and people have been saying it on Halftime/Fast Money since the shows began, um, about 17 years ago. (Tip: 2 years from now, the average age of cars on the road is going to be about the same as now, and 2 years ago, the average age of cars on the road was about the same as now.) It's like the old buy-fertilizer-stocks argument because "people gotta eat."

On Fast Money, Melissa Lee and Karen Finerman noted how the No. 1 pick in the WNBA Draft is getting a contract worth far (far) less than the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft. Karen promised that with a new WNBA TV rights deal, "salaries will go up." Dan Nathan suggested Karen hire Caitlin Clark at Metropolitan Capital for $150,000 a year.

Jenny’s a long-term investor (except when she’s timing the market)

On Monday's (4/15) Halftime Report, Jenny Harrington and Steve Weiss argued about almost everything. But it was actually Jenny's revelations about investment philosophy that caught our ear.

For example, Jenny explained that she regularly times the market and knows when stocks are "up too much."

"All of our accounts are separately managed," Jenny told Judge. "So people come in, they send cash, and then you don't buy their whole portfolio on day one. And there's always stocks that are up too much."

Jenny singled out how she "didn't want to buy" OGN and SLG a couple weeks ago, but by waiting, "I was able to buy them significantly cheaper than they've been trading just the week before. So I just layered them into the new accounts that had cash that didn't already own them."

And so we wondered, how come a couple weeks ago on TV, Jenny wasn't telling viewers which stocks were "up too much."

Moments later, Jenny cited Pat Gelsinger's interview with Jon Fortt; "I was driving along listening."

Jenny said Pat said that if you're one of those people who wants a portfolio "pop" for 2 weeks, "I don't want you." Jenny noted that Steve Weiss indeed bought INTC a couple weeks ago for a "short-term catalyst" that didn't work, but that "everything's the same still" as when the stock was 44 a couple weeks ago, and people just "freaked out" about the foundry business when "nothing's changed."

"It has changed," Weiss asserted. "How can you say it hasn't changed."

Weiss said of Gelsinger, "First of all, kudos- kudos to him for reading that book, CEOs That Are Failing And Have Really Bad Stock Prices, this is the quote you've got to send out to potential investors. That don't count- don't count on our stock going up anytime soon, but if you look 25 years from now, this stock's gonna be a lot higher. So kudos to him for writin' that down, because he found people to buy it."

Weiss said the foundry was not supposed to report a $7 billion loss, but did, and "that's major."

Furthermore, "If you go back to everything Gelsinger's promised in the first couple years since he took over, you wouldn't find anything that came to fruition," Weiss added.

Jenny concluded the discussion with this: "I find that the best investments that I've ever made are from distressed situations where everybody else hates it," Jenny said.

That's curious, because 1) she didn't say INTC is in a "distressed situation," and 2) Karen Finerman says her best investment was bitcoin (when was bitcoin ever "distressed"), and the Charlie Munger obituaries mentioned Charlie's belief that it's best to pay up for the best businesses.

But Jenny, evidently, is a distressed-company investor.

Weiss, by the way, is timing the market too, stating early in the show, "It's not a time to put new money into the market. We're still in a consolidation period."

Jenny likens market
multiple to March 2000

There was one thing Steve Weiss and Jenny Harrington actually agreed on during Monday's (4/15) Halftime Report.

Jenny said, "We're trading at 21 times ... last time the market traded at that was January 2022, um, and March — this is really inspiring — March of 2000." (Uh oh. Sell all your stocks. Except INTC.)

Weiss agreed that the market's trading at an "accommodative" multiple when this is a "restrictive" scene.

Weiss said consumers have been "skating through" the rate hikes but cautioned: "You can drink a milk shake every day for 4 days, you can say, 'Oh, my weight's fine.' But, if you drink it for 4 months, your weight's not gonna be fine."

Judge opened asking Joe Terranova if the market is still vulnerable. Joe said the "easy answer" is that, "We're still vulnerable for a little bit of a deeper decline."

Joe said CRM is testing its 100-day for the first time since November. But he said "there's a little bit of fear" about dealmaking and "the investor community is saying, 'Uh oh, let's not do this again.'"

Weiss: GS was sandbagged by people on the inside ‘planting stories’ about David Solomon

A little debate took place on Monday's (4/15) Halftime Report over GS.

Joe Terranova said GS "spent 2023 kind of redefining the company." Joe said it's back to being the company he used to call "the world's largest successful hedge fund."

Steve Weiss said "it's always been the same old Goldman" and he doesn't think it "ever left." Judge noted "the stock, at times, left." Weiss said "that was headlines, it was driven by David Solomon, you know, going after him, because, politically, some people inside planting stories and trying to get a new CEO."

Judge countered, "They had at least one significant stumble in their trajectory of the business." Weiss said yes, "They addressed it almost immediately."

Jenny Harrington scoffed that for GS, "it's all about the story," but at SCHW, which she likes, "it's all about the numbers."

Joe protested, "How is it not about the numbers at Goldman?"

"They're not like this. They're not as good as Schwab's," Jenny claimed.

"28% jump in net income!" Joe continued.

Defending GS, Weiss said that "unlike Jenny, I don't have to malign another stock." Weiss said GS is far more levered to the potential IPO or "M&A cycle" and has "excellent business lines."

Joe asked how far down SCHW is from February 2022 and how far down is GS at the same time. Joe's point was that SCHW is down since that time, while GS is up.

Weiss claims Fed wouldn’t even ‘start to worry’ until unemployment almost doubles

Steve Weiss was a quote machine on Friday's (4/12) Halftime Report; unfortunately, many of the quotes were head-scratchers.

Weiss said at the top of the show, "The story's coming out that Iran's gonna attack Israel in the next 2 days. And then we have the other story, which is, Biden is committed to defending Israel, so, you don't wanna go home long with that kind of setup for the weekend."

That's interesting, because 1) Weiss said at the end of the show that if he thought Friday's market activity "was all about geopolitical," he'd buy, because it's "always an opportunity to buy."

And 2), Weiss will sometimes explain that he won't sell stocks, at all, because he doesn't want to pay the taxes, but here he's suggesting not being long just for this weekend.

Then there was this: Weiss mentioned Fed mandates and actually said with a straight face, "You could see unemployment almost double, at least go up 60%, before, to get to around 5% or 6%, before they really start to worry."

OK. Sure. Check out the chair's testimony to Congress when that happens.

Weiss described ARKK as "like seeing a movie, and the 2nd half is phenomenal but the first half really sucked. ARKK is still down from its peak of 140."

When has anyone ever seen a movie in which the first half "sucked" but the 2nd half proved "phenomenal"?

And Weiss actually said with a straight face that Donald Trump is saying "enough stimulus."

Jim’s a little negative (not ‘negative on the markets overall for the rest of the year’)

Amy Raskin on Friday's (4/12) Halftime Report suggested the "narrative" may be changing to "inflationary boom," in which case, you want to own commodities, and value over growth.

"You still have a disinflationary environment," Judge stated, though noting "a turbulent week."

Jim Lebenthal, clearly getting out in front of any of Judge's descriptions, said, "I'm gonna say something negative Scott, but I don't want it to be taken as 'Lebenthal is negative on the markets overall for the rest of the year.' Right now, I'm a little negative."

Jim said that speculation about hiking rates is "not an outlandish discussion to have." He said he's going to "sit tight," and "not buying today."

Kevin Simpson, though, said, "I think the bull narrative is intact. And I don't think we need any rate cuts." Still, Kevin stated, "The next move will be a rate cut."

Steve Weiss also said he was "perplexed" by the market's move on Thursday.

Judge insisted at the end of the show that "the overall narrative hasn't changed. It. Has. Not. Changed." Weiss struggled to explain whether yields were going up or down.

A day earlier on Fast Money, Guy Adami stared into the camera and stated, "Given everything that I'm seeing, a rate- any rate cut this year doesn't make any sense."

But on Friday's Fast Money, Steve Grasso asserted, "I do believe we're still going to get 3 rate cuts this year."

‘Things have been pretty dull at Cisco’

Judge on Friday's (4/12) Halftime Report curiously showed a chart showing Megacap Tech climbing even as rate-cut expectations have fallen, which apparently is Tony Pasquariello's point, while Judge said Michael Hartnett is warning of a 1999-like bubble because the Nasdaq is moving higher as yields move higher.

Judge suggested both "can technically be true," if those stocks are indeed working now but it leads to a bubble.

Steve Weiss doesn't view big tech as a bubble, just "slightly overvalued here."

Amy Raskin said of ASML, "I just think the space is probably a little overdone."

Bill Baruch dialed in and said AAPL is "innovating" and that it rebounded from dipping into the 160s.

Jim Lebenthal explained why he's not buying AAPL now: "Right now, my gut, my experience in the market, says the market's going lower from here, and Apple with it."

Kevin Simpson bought HON, suggesting it can benefit from BA's troubles. Weiss bought more LDOS. Jim said CSCO is a bit of a "show-me story," and said with a straight face, "Absent Splunk, things have been pretty dull at Cisco to say the least."

Weiss said he'd be "hard-pressed" to find a week where "some analyst" didn't raise their NFLX target.

Kevin Simpson said he wouldn't buy UNH ahead of earnings and noted he bought a month ago at 470.

Jim touted GPC, citing the "average age of cars on the road is very, very old," a comment we've been hearing on these CNBC shows for probably 15 years running.

On Closing Bell, Bryn Talkington suggested the selloff was "more geopolitical" than related to rates.

No updates on the status of Invest America making it through Congress

Josh Brown opened Thursday's (4/11) Halftime Report show taking up sort of what Jim Lebenthal brought up a day earlier, as Josh affirmed he's looking for a "buyable selloff," and Josh concluded Wednesday was a "countertrend move."

We were agreeing with that on Thursday, except that on Friday, there was a bigger "countertrend move." (This review was posted Friday 4/12 afternoon.)

Rich Saperstein said, "Anywhere you look, the economy is doing well, so we're fully invested." Judge demanded an explanation of "fully invested" in terms of equities. Rich said a client who typically is at 50% equities may have been down to 45% equities a while ago but is now back at 50%.

Shannon Saccocia said bulls are "emboldened" because manufacturing is in expansion.

Jason Snipe said he doesn't think it's either too early to sell or too late to buy; rather, he thinks it's a time for people "to get in and stay in." (Unfortunatetly, it wouldn't have hurt for those buyers to wait at least 1 day.)

Jason trimmed NVDA.

Josh said he would argue that the "prospect" of Fed rate cuts is greater than the cuts themselves. Josh went on to argue that P.E. ratios are higher than historical levels because there's less stock in the world every year due to buybacks.

Rich Saperstein said he's holding big banks, but as far as adding more, "probably not." Rich is overweight oil as a "geopolitical hedge."

Josh Brown said JPM being down on Thursday was a "little bit of a gift."

At the end of the show, Rich discussed buying FIS, but we didn't hear any strong catalysts, other than maybe buybacks.

At the top of Power Lunch on Thursday, Tyler Mathisen went to Rick Santelli at the CME and Rick acknowledged Tyler; after talking about seasonal adjustments to gasoline, Rick said, "Deirdre, back to you." Tyler pointed out, "Actually it's Tyler and Contessa today."

Joe Terranova was on Closing Bell and said, "The bull market continues to get stress tests" and that the Mag 7 is what led the market this week back from what looked like a worse correction. (Although Friday sort of resumed that correction.)

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said she's long MS and addressed the breaking news, "I'm not delighted by this," though she wouldn't say this is a "giant disaster."

Judge and Weiss eventually settle whether next move is hike or cut, tangle over amount of options for Federal Reserve

Shortly in to Wednesday's (4/10) Halftime Report, Judge asked Steve Weiss, "Is the next move from the Fed a cut or a hike?"

Weiss answered, "The next move from the Fed is no move."

"No no no. Don't give me that nonsense," Judge warned.

"No it's not nonsense. It's factual!" Weiss said.

"That's not a move! Are they gonna cut next or hike," Judge persisted.

"They're probably gonna cut," Weiss admitted.

"OK thank you," Judge said.

"Hold on Scott, that's not the answer-" Weiss continued.

"It is the answer-" Judge said.

"No it's not the answer," Weiss said.

"I just asked you the question, what is their next move," Judge said.

"You still have Bowman out there saying 3 cuts, you have 'em saying 6 cuts, now it's 3, it's probably gonna go to 2, and if you're basing a case on that, then you're wrong," Weiss explained.

"No, no you're not," Judge shot back. "If you knew that the first move of the Fed at the beginning of this hiking cycle was gonna be a hike, you'd be negative, like you were. Like you were."

"What if the next move is not this year but next year," Weiss countered.

"OK, if you wanna start pushing the timeline back that far then obviously that's a, a risk," Judge said.

"Exactly. That's my point!" Weiss said.

What a difference .3 makes (a/k/a Jim tries to redefine ‘resident bull’ after getting buffaloed out of buying)

Judge wondered at the start of Wednesday's (4/10) Halftime Report "if anything" has changed for the market with the CPI report.

Bryn Talkington said anyone "expecting to come in at .3" and having the market "cruise on" were "sorely mistaken."

Bryn said "the last mile" of the inflation battle, which we're hearing ad nauseum on CNBC, "may be longer than a mile."

Bryn advised that you may have to "think through certain sectors that you may have been overweight."

Judge called Jim Lebenthal "our resident bull." Jim said something is changing "on the margin." Jim said he had to "parse" the "resident bull" comment; it's true that he has been, but he's been trimming recently and has got "cash on the sidelines."

Jim then curiously revealed, "I came in, I woke up this morning, I was actually ready to buy. I was waiting for that CPI report, and when it came out, everything that I wanted to buy started going down and it's been going down ever since, so I'm sitting on my hands. ... I'd like the market to find its footing, and then I'll- and then I'll come back in. But right now, today, there's absolutely no reason for me or any other participant (snicker) to buy."

That sounds like Jim was simply momentum trading, wanting to buy a stock except when it's going down.

About 20 minutes later, Steve Weiss said kind of out of the blue, "I'm still confused that Jimmy came in today wanting to buy stocks that were higher, and now that they're lower, he doesn't wanna buy 'em. ... I'm still trying to work that out from the A Block."

"I spelled that out. What are you being, purposely dense?" Jim chuckled.

Sully reveals what would cause him to retire

Wednesday's (4/10) Closing Bell Overtime on CNBC was guest hosted by Sully, the channel's funniest anchor, who took note of what a Halftime panelist said on Closing Bell. (Yes this entry spans 3 programs.)

Sully said, "I heard Josh Brown in the previous hour, he said it's a risk-on, you know, risk-off, rate cut-on, rate cut-off market." But Sully wondered if "PCE" (he said "PCE" with a deep, strong voice) comes in "cooler," does that change the inflation "narrative."

Ed Yardeni said he's glad Sully brought that up, then leaped into the deep end of the PCE pool, citing what Ed admitted may be just "minute little changes."

Sully made a joke to Santoli about 5,150 on the S&P 500 ("sounds like investors want the best of both worlds").

Sully also quoted Forrest Gump while asking Neil Dutta, "Why are we even talking about rate cuts when inflation is reaccelerating?"

Sully said, "If there could be a day where I don't talk about the Federal Reserve, I might just retire, be the best day of my life."

Joe says to own commodities, insurers, private equity

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (4/10) Halftime Report said the Fed is looking for "reasons" to cut, and Wednesday did not give them one. But Joe said the diminishing forecast of 2024 rate cuts does not change how he wants to invest "at all," explaining he hasn't wanted to own real estate and Wednesday is a good day not to own real estate.

Steve Weiss said, "To me, this puts any rate cut this year in doubt." Weiss said of Powell, "He's neutral right now; he's not dovish." Weiss said if pushed he'd probably guess we get 1 cut, but even 1 is not a "slam dunk."

Steve Liesman said there's now "additional risk," that being either no Fed cut or that the Fed has to "reverse course." Steve said the recent data "violates" the theory of what should happen after raising rates "at the speed of light." Steve said the Fed needs to be "mindful" that "The theory of it being restrictive is not necessarily uh taking place in the reality of the economy."

(Wonder if Steve thinks the Fed also needs to be "mindful" that the 2020s inflation story is all about dogs chasing tails, companies paying their workers more so that workers can grapple with inflation while the companies raise prices to cover the increased labor costs, and maybe the government can send everyone $600 or $1,200 checks again ...)

Bryn Talkington advised sticking with "high quality tech, which would be the Q's" and predicted a "big separation between the wheat and the chaff."

Joe's list of must-owns include commodities, insurance companies and private equity. Joe said, "It is imperative that you own commodities in this environment."

Weiss said he's "astounded" that DE and CAT were "flat" on Wednesday.

Jim stressed that the market is merely reacting to "marginal data" on Wednesday that's negative.

Judge jokes that restaurant diners bail when Weiss walks in

Bryn Talkington on Wednesday's (4/10) Halftime Report suggested gold is a "macro play" on the country's interest on the national debt (snicker). However, "Gold is very overbought right now," Bryn said.

Joe Terranova actually referred to Bryn as "Blin" (snicker) but quickly corrected himself.

Steve Weiss then uncorked this rationale for not being long: "I don't know how you value gold. It's an emotional buy; it's an emotional sell."

That's a fair point. But unlike cryptogarbage, there's a couple thousand years of price history.

Weiss joked that if he got into gold, that'll be the "end of the time it works." Judge cracked "like most everything else," that when Weiss walks into a restaurant, everyone says "Check please."

Joe asked Weiss how gold is different than bitcoin, which Weiss has recently owned.

"Good. Question," Judge said.

Weiss said it's a "softball question," and he's betting on "momentum" and "marketing strength" of financial companies bringing people into bitcoin. (So it's OK to momentum-trade bitcoin, but too hard to momentum-trade gold.)

Jim Lebenthal talked up CLF again. Joe chuckled, "Cleveland Cliffs, never heard that before." "Never ends," Judge agreed.

Kinda funny that CNBC wouldn’t put on the Najarii but will run their ads

Judge on Wednesday's (4/10) Halftime Report noted Ed Bastian yet again talked up how robust air travel is.

Jim Lebenthal said the stock was down on "profit taking," though Jim didn't want to "blithely" dismiss that. "Let me be blunt, folks — this is an opportunity to buy Delta," Jim said.

Bryn Talkington sold ABBV at 178 after a "really good run."

Bryn hasn't talked about RBLX for weeks; on Wednesday she again said it needs "more profitability" to get past $40-$45.

Judge said ALB got upgraded by Bank of America. Bryn said the time to buy commodities is when there's "blood in the streets," as with this name, and she "wouldn't be surprised" if her shop adds this stock in the next few weeks.

Joe Terranova asked Bryn, "Does this feel like natural gas (snicker) to you?" "A little bit, right," Bryn said. Joe said he might buy ALB or even "a little natural gas."

Jim said Adam Jonas, despite an outperform rating, "hates" GM; "I don't understand it."

During Final Trades, Judge said to Joe, "Somebody asked me for the ticker of the JOET."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said the CPI number is "a little bit more scary" than previous indications of persistent inflation. Karen also noted the activity in M and indicated she thought it might've moved higher on that news but it wasn't a good day for stocks.

‘Enormous amount of money on the sidelines’

Agree with him or not, but Rob Sechan easily made the call of the day on Tuesday's (4/9) Halftime Report.

Rob said "there's an enormous amount of money on the sidelines," which got nods and backing from his fellow panelists, if not Judge.

Rob said "animal spirits are picking up" and he thinks any dip from "a hot number" on Wednesday will get bought.

Josh Brown said, "I actually would root for a panic, and I'll buy it." Josh pointed out that the average 10-year yield going "back to 1926" is 4.8%, and that he didn't hear any of the other panelists linking their investing strategy to a rate cut.

Joe Terranova, who had a quiet show, said, "I do believe in the last week and a half, we've worked off some of the overbought conditions" and even added an "element of bearishness" into the market.

Brian Belski is "a little bit more cautious" in the near-term because "a lot of the easy money's been made," but he's still "super bullish" for the longer term.

Karen: ‘I just cannot believe how bad Siri is’ (a/k/a FAA calls Phil during soundbite)

During a rather tepid conversation on Tuesday's (4/9) Fast Money about GOOGL and AAPL, Karen Finerman reiterated a product review.

"I just cannot believe how bad Siri is," Karen said. "It's amazing to me."

On the Halftime Report, Stephanie Link said "you're not gonna make a lot of money" from BA in the short term. But Brian Belski predicted that BA in the next 5 years "is gonna be the next GE."

CNBC's Phil LeBeau was delivering an update on the BA story when he got a call. "This is the FAA," Phil explained, so he had to bolt.

Josh Brown touted Morgan Stanley's upgrade of NDAQ. "The big driver here is going to be new listings, in my opinion," Brown said; it's one of the "cleanest ways" to play the IPO calendar.

In a discussion about Morgan Stanley's energy upgrade, Joe Terranova said, "You absolutely want the refiners." Josh Brown again touted the IEO. "This sector is in a bull market," Brown said. Rob said he's been overweight energy all year, and now it's "starting to play (sic) dividends." Brian Belski though claimed it's "too late" for a bullish energy call.

We don’t think we heard ‘higher for longer,’ perhaps because Carter Worth mocked it

Judge and his panelists on Monday's (4/8) Halftime Report were oblivious to the solar eclipse, but they weren't oblivious to everyone's favorite dog-chasing-its-tail story, inflation.

Steve Weiss opened the show saying this is a "critical" week because we've seen "such a big backup in rates."

Jim Lebenthal said 3 hot price reports in a row would mean "inflation is not under control."

Weiss said 3 months as a measuring stick is important because that's how trends are determined.

So, we gotta ask, because no one on the show did ... if everyone is getting pay raises because of inflation, doesn't that prompt those employers to raise prices, thus creating more inflation?

Judge questioned, "Aren't rates going up for the right reason?"

For about the 5th time in 3 weeks, Weiss was asked to talk about a NFLX upgrade. Weiss admitted he "keeps sayin'" that he wishes he had bought more.

Jim said RIG got a contract extension above $500,000 a day, the first time at that level in maybe 10 years or so.

Weiss said he's still in bitcoin.

Jim impressively admitted, "I am an idiot for owning Paramount." Weiss said, "That's my favorite soundbite. We've been doing this show 14 years, that's my favorite soundbite ever."

Weiss: AMZN doesn’t ‘need to have streaming’

Steve Weiss on Friday's (4/5) Halftime Report was declaring victory in the streaming world.

Weiss again said he wishes his NFLX position was bigger. "There are gonna be 2 winners in streaming. You know, Amazon's already cut back their production, it's a non-event, they don't need to have streaming, have content for you to join Prime. So it's gonna be Hulu/Disney, and it's going to be Netflix. That's it. Nobody else can afford to spend on it ... Netflix will be the major winner."

We're not sure it's going to be quite that simple. We don't agree that streaming is a "non-event" for AMZN; we would say it's sort of in a bad no-man's land, it's one of a few factors in whether someone subscribes to Prime, and the company wants to be "competitive" in streaming but also isn't interested in trying to outdo Netflix.

Weiss is obsessed with the notion of a streaming "winner." For now, the quality of offerings on Disney, Prime, Peacock, Apple TV and Paramount probably do not affect for most people whether they subscribe to NFLX. And the reason most people actually "subscribe" to many of these services is because they're getting free trials when they buy phones or order certain cable channels.

The issue for NFLX is whether it can either 1) gain more subscribers and/or 2) charge the subscribers more than it's charging now. This page believes the answer to 2) is an absolute yes, so we would agree with Weiss that it's a good stock, although it was a better stock a year ago. (This writer has no position in NFLX.)

On Fast Money, Tim Seymour said NFLX has been a free cash flow "machine" and he'd stay in the stock with earnings approaching. Guy Adami said NFLX is "right up against" its November 2021 high of 645-ish; he said it does have momentum and Guy would "maybe" hold it into earnings on the 18th but he'd be "a bit weary (sic) or leery" of holding it after that.

Weiss unloads INTC

Steve Weiss on Friday's (4/5) Halftime Report said we got a "Goldilocks" employment report; most importantly to Weiss, "Wage growth came in as expected."

Weiss said "geopolitical concerns" related to Israel and Iran are "always very temporary."

Weiss said Thursday was "a little bit painful," but not "meaningful."

Jim Lebenthal said it's only on the "distant radar," but if we keep getting hotter-than-expected inflation stats, that would concern him.

Weiss is suddenly out of INTC, selling it "down 10%," after defending it just a couple days ago. "I bought it a little early. And clearly it was a mistake," Weiss said, adding it's "not cheap" and too hard to pick a bottom on it.

Jenny Harrington protested, "I wouldn't be surprised if you get back into it at some point."

Weiss said VRT "should keep goin'," but he's "not buying it up here."

Steve Liesman delivered breaking news on Michelle Bowman's speech. Judge observed, "This sounds like both Bowman and Powell are on pretty much the same page."

Jenny Harrington revealed, "I have a friend who started doing the GLP-1s, and lost a ton of weight, and went out and had to buy an entire new wardrobe."

On Fast Money, The extremely cute Constance Hunter of MacroPolicy Perspective said the increase in the labor participation rate is a "really good piece of news." Grandpa Guy Adami, who won't say what a gallon of milk/gas/carton of eggs should cost, said "Part-time employment is going through the roof. Full-time jobs are going down. That tells me ... people need more jobs, 2 jobs, because they're trying to combat inflation any way they can." Tim Seymour said April historically is favored in stocks; "This is one of the best investment times of the year."

Nelson says DIS board never even interviewed Chapek (a/k/a the question isn’t why everybody hates PARA; the question is why Jim keeps liking it year after year)

Thursday (4/4) was such a sprawling day on CNBC, we had to watch at least 4 programs to find the good stuff. Which included Bob Iger, Nelson Peltz, and a market plunge around 2 p.m. Eastern.

David Faber did note how Bob's always got an answer for how successful the Fox acquisition was. But Bob (with apologies to David) said absolutely nothing controversial nor even newsworthy, which is why the Hollywood Reporter headlined the interview with Iger's remark about "woke."

(Even so, Karen Finerman on Fast Money was impressed, stating, "It was a great interview. I mean, David really pushed him hard, and- on a lot of different things," including "the idea that they hope to be No. 2 in streaming ... It's over, right? Netflix has won.")

Nelson, on the other hand, had good stuff, about a half-hour or so after Iger, telling Jim Cramer, "We've been told, on very good sources, that Chapek never even had, uh, an interview with the board directly."

In a tremendous question, Jim told Nelson that Jeff Sonnenfeld apparently says that Peltz is "finished." Jim asked Peltz for reax. "I do not even know how to pronounce his name," Nelson said.

On the (sleepy) Halftime Report, Josh Brown offered up new terminology, suggesting the market is toggling between "cut on" and "cut off" on a daily basis.

Touting IEO, Josh went to lengths to explain why "overbought" doesn't have to be a bad thing.

Bill Baruch asserted that the Fed is "a bit more political than people think."

Bill said he's "staying very far away" from natural gas, a commodity that Jim Lebenthal (who wasn't a panelist on Thursday's show) keeps talking up.

Speaking of Jim, more than halfway through, Jim joined the crew remotely to discuss not nat gas but one of his favorite stocks, PARA. Jim openly wondered, "Why does everybody hate this stock?" Jim suggested there's "2 answers," one that Shari will favor A shares over B shares, which Jim doesn't think is "likely." Judge cut Jim off before he could supply the 2nd answer. Moments later, Jim said "the other answer" is that "nobody in the analyst community trusts management."

We checked in with Judge's Closing Bell to learn if anyone was aghast about the late afternoon market reversal. No one really was. "None of this is a reversal of trend," Santoli said.

Steve Liesman on that program noted the market went "straight down" as Neel Kashkari "said what for some is the quiet part out loud."

On Fast Money, Tim Seymour called Mester "Meister" but corrected himself.

Tim also stated, "I think this was all about the Fed." Karen Finerman pushed back that "we've had people coming up, Bostic yesterday, Gorman ... a number ... saying no cuts."

Pointing to NVDA, Guy Adami labeled Thursday's action as a "continuation of March 8th."

No one’s brought up ‘higher for longer’ since Carter mocked the phrase

Wednesday's (4/3) Fast Money had one advantage over the Halftime Report; it wasn't at Sohn, which wasn't exactly producing fireworks.

Grandpa Guy Adami was asked to opine on Jay Powell (see below) and mentioned the "not even thinking about thinking about thinking about" thing and eventually declared, "The inflation battle's far from over."

Guy asserted, "Inflation is what's killing people," and went on to state that the reason Joe Biden's approval rating is "historically low" is because people feeling "pain" from "paying too much for things."

Or, maybe his approval rating is low because this is a person who barely mustered about 5% in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2020 before the Democratic Party decided to hand the nomination to him.

Mel didn't ask Guy exactly what price people should be paying for things. What should a gallon of gasoline cost; what should a gallon of milk cost, what should a Denny's Grand Slam cost.

For the umpteenth time, Karen Finerman, who stunned in new blue outfit, questioned why the Fed would cut. "I don't understand why they would need to do this," Karen stated.

Karen said when she saw ULTA down 13%, she thought, "this is crazy," and she bought more, ignoring her 3-day rule, only to see the stock fall another 2%.

David Einhorn suggests Fed is ‘motivated’ to keep the president ‘in power’

Judge's interview Wednesday (4/3) at Sohn with David Einhorn (it occurred during Power Lunch, not the Halftime Report) lasted about 12 minutes, and it wasn't until the very last moment that they got to the good stuff.

That was when David said it "seems unlikely" that there'd be a Fed hike, at least before November, stating, "They seem very politically motivated to, um, uh, try to keep the president in- in power."

David presented SLVYY at Sohn; he told Judge he owns "a little bit over 5% of the company." We're sure it's an interesting investment, but it's also fairly obscure and we doubt too many viewers are going to jump in.

Einhorn explained that he bought NYCB and other acquirers of the fallout assets of the March 2023 bank troubles, but he sold NYCB after the recent bad news and took a "very small loss."

Much of the interview dealt with "value" investing (snicker). David asserted that "The value investing industry and value investing are 2 completely different things."

"Gold is a very large position for us," Einhorn said, citing a "problem with the overall monetary and fiscal policies of the country." David said that "the deficits are ultimately a real problem" and that it's just a "math thing" to realize it.

Nevertheless, "I don't particularly think we're in a bubble," David said.

Weiss’ ADM buy remains early contender for Call of the Year

Live from Sohn on Wednesday's (4/3) Halftime Report, Josh Brown said he's looking at RSIs and found that "the market is almost completely stalled out here." But he said the Russell average RSI is at 52, highest since February 2023.

Kari Firestone said the market is "grappling" with whether stronger growth that pushes off rate cuts is worth it.

Steve Weiss agreed with Kari; "that really is the debate going on."

As happened throughout the day on CNBC, Judge aired clips of Steve Cohen on Squawk Box saying AI is a "really durable theme." Weiss said Cohen gets the "best information" from his 1,000-person team, many of them traders.

Josh said "this is a very different environment than bubbles past." Josh and Weiss agreed that the performance of some slumping tech stocks wouldn't be happening if this were a bubble.

Jim actually said that the DIS board battle is "great drama." Jim mentioned the "Hulu transaction" (snicker) again but claimed Iger has "got one ace in his sleeve," which of course is "streaming" (snicker).

Leslie Picker rattled off a list of Sohn stock picks, none of which we heard of, which included a "Norwegian digital media company."

Weiss for some reason owns INTC and claimed it was "holding up reasonably well" down 7% on its foundry business. Weiss said it easily could've been at $35 and claimed it's a 2nd-half story. Josh said he'd take a "2nd look" at the stock if it can hold 38 for a few days.

Kari said baby boomers are "traveling constantly ... I'm one of them." She likes BKNG.

Seema Mody is back and did the CNBC News Update.

In the latter half of the show, Michelle Ross of StemPoint sat in with the crew to discuss her biotech presentation on CRNX at Sohn; she thinks it's got room for inroads in GLP-1. She said SNDX has a drug in the works for childhood leukemia, and that MRUS is addressing head and neck cancers.

Josh said LYV is a "crown jewel" in the "experience economy" despite the fact Piper Sandler is apparently down on the stock.

Weiss touted TDG and also Judge gave him an update on ADM, so far one of the best trades of the year. Weiss pointed out he bought the stock on that accounting-issue collapse and "I'm actually up 20%."

Dan Nathan: TSLA going to 100

Bryn Talkington made a stark pronouncement at the top of Tuesday's (4/2) Halftime Report, stating, "We've been overbought in this market really since early February."

Josh Brown said, "When you saw that activity happening with the Donald Trump SPAC, uh, you just knew that there were games being played that we really haven't seen since, like, late 2021."

Brown said, "I also notice some of the worst people on social media beating their chest again about bitcoin and this and that."

Late in the program, Bryn said she could see bitcoin being either $100,000 or $20,000. "I still don't understand the use cases for it," Bryn admitted.

Meanwhile, Sarat Sethi said the market needs to "digest" the big run of the last several months.

Bryn said there's been a recent "obsession" with small caps, but she expects them to continue to lag. She said the Fed will be "more neutral" near the election and that the "sweet spot" for cutting rates would be in the summer.

Jim Lebenthal said "we don't need rate cuts," and he insisted he's not being "blasé" about it either.

Midway through the show, David Faber reported that Endeavor is going private. On DIS, David said the company is "certainly in a very good position to prevail" against Nelson Peltz. But as to whether it could be 70-30, David said "no way," maybe like a vote total in the "high 50s." Judge wondered if the closeness of the vote would matter in any way. David indicated probably not unless it was extremely close.

Jim again said it "can't hurt" to have Peltz on the board, but he's definitely not selling if Peltz loses.

Jim again said "the future" of DIS is Disney+ streaming (snicker).

Bryn said TSLA's Chinese competitors "have caught up," and it's a question of how well TSLA can compete in that market. Bryn predicted "a bad Q2" and "rough year" for TSLA and said she'd wait "a couple quarters" before looking to buy.

Gene Munster basically seconded that notion on Fast Money. But also on Fast Money, Dan Nathan said TSLA is "probably going to a hundred," calling it "one of the worst-looking stock charts I've ever seen in my life."

Dan also said that some people claim to see clarity from the Fed on rates, but "I don't think they (meaning the Fed) have a clue."

Judge promised a "big show" Wednesday from Sohn and said he'll be live with David Einhorn at 2:15 p.m. Eastern.

Guy suggests downside revisions to unemployment statistics might be like the unheeded ‘warning signs’ of 2006-07

Grandpa Guy Adami, who's been complaining since Benny Goodman was The King of Swing that the Federal Reserve has lost control of the bond market, was challenged by host Missy Lee about his perpetual warnings on Monday's (4/1) Fast Money.

Guy had stated at the top of the program, "I think people are wishing for rate cuts, and I've said, be careful what you wish for," adding, "The inflation genie I think is right back out of the bottle."

Moments later, Mel noted stock market positives and asked Guy, "Why so grim?"

Guy referred to the beginnings of the show around 2007 and the subsequent housing/financial crisis and assured "I'm not suggesting we're there" at '08-'09 but stated, "The fact that people came back and said, 'You never told us all the bad things that were going on, you never warned us,' so I vowed from that day on, if I saw things that were, to me at least, alarming, I was gonna bring them up."

One of those "alarming" "warning signs" is apparently the "revisions to the downside" (snicker) in unemployment reports.

So, "Things aren't as great as they appear."

However, Guy did allow that no rate cuts (or less than 3) would be the "most bullish thing that could happen" for the financial markets.

"I'm surprised there's still 3 on the table," offered Karen Finerman.

Dan Nathan said he has "no idea" what would happen in the markets if Jay Powell declared there would be no rate cuts this year.

Carter says when you hear a mantra like ‘Higher for longer,’ you should ‘run the other way’; Judge opened his show with it and no one bolted

At the start of Monday's (4/1) Halftime Report, Judge asked Stephanie Link, "Is this the quarter ... where we start worrying about higher for longer," probably not realizing that Carter Worth hours later on Fast Money was going to mock the "higher for longer" sloganeering, saying it started around 5.02%.

Stephanie said "we probably are higher for longer" and that there might not be cuts this year and Monday's ISM was "pretty hot."

Judge said investors are at their most bullish in 18 months, but Jason Snipe said he doesn't think the market is offsides.

Jim Lebenthal insisted this is a "Goldilocks environment" and that inflation is "coming down" even if not as much as people want.

Judge asserted the rising 10-year rate could be trouble. Stephanie said "5% is the number that I would worry about" for its impact on housing, and the market can "handle" 4.5%.

Jason said he recently added to CAT, which is "hitting all-time highs."

Judge asked Jim about banks and noted the highs in many of them. Jim said they're due for a "pause" at some point but he doesn't see any looming fundamental issues. "Green shoots are there," Jim said.

Jim again talked up the potential of nat gas without really explaining why it might go up.

Judge asked Jim about being bullish on the economy and market while being overweight a "defensive area of the market," health care. Jim conceded that health care even typically does badly in election years, but he sees a "snapback after a terrible 2023."

Jim told Judge that he doesn't think you necessarily have to have rate cuts for small caps to work, just a strong economy. But Jason said rate cuts are "important" to the small cap story.

Jim said he's "very bullish" on DAL and the gushing MS upgrade is a "fun note to read."

Jim's 3-point plan for DIS success includes "profitability in streaming" (snicker). Jim said if Peltz wins, he won't "distract" Bob Iger and can't hurt, and if he doesn't win, at least the stock is up a lot recently. Stephanie said if she owned DIS, she would sell it if Peltz does not win the board seat.

Judge promised David Einhorn at Sohn on Wednesday.

Josh talks about TOST

Much of Thursday's (3/28) Halftime Report was interrupted by breaking news from the Sam Bankman-Fried sentencing, provided by CNBC superfox Kate Rooney. (See our home page.)

Kate said one of the reasons Sam got 25 years is because the judge found there's "not a trivial risk" of him doing this kind of stuff again. Kate also said legal experts say the chances of SBF making a successful appeal are "very unlikely."

On Fast Money, Tim Seymour took up the criminal justice system, stating, "Part of this sentence, it almost sounds like someone that showed zero remorse. And- and- and, you know, that's part of it."

Back on Halftime, Josh Brown opened the show saying "the real big question" is how people will react to the "first correction of 2024."

Josh said "it's not just tech" that's working but energy, communications services and financials are the top 3 sectors of the year, all around 13%.

Shannon Saccocia said it's hard to "pin down" what will cause the correction.

Jim Lebenthal said Ryan Grabinski of Strategas says that out of 130 times of the market being up 27% in 5 months (that's a stat everyone keeps handy), "the next 12 months, only 1 time out of 130 have you had a negative return." And the average return is 15% over 12 months.

But Jim says that for the market to continue, we need "meaningful earnings beats."

Josh pointed out the huge gains in the past year of SLG; he said there's no big earnings but rather "it just didn't get more bad." Josh also said CTAS earnings are a "guidance" for the health of the market.

Josh said "the banks have actually been the big laggards amongst the financials."

Jim said ORCL has both fundamentals and sentiment behind it. Josh said he's a buyer of PFE and again made the case that the stock has been worse than the fundamentals.

Josh gave the same speech about TOST that he always does. Jim gave the same speech about DAL that he always does.

Mark Yusko predicts bitcoin will be $150,000 in a year, ‘easily’ $700,000 in 2034

Mark Yusko joined Wednesday's (3/27) Halftime Report to predict that bitcoin will reach $150,000 in a "year or so," according to Melissa Lee.

Mark said it's "just math," then went on to discuss "halving" and how it "cuts the block rewards."

Somehow, it gets to $75,000 "fair value," and post-halving brings "a lot of interest" that brings 2x fair value because of FOMO and other things, so there's your $150,000.

Later, Mark, who called bitcoin "a better form of gold," stated, "I think it can go up 10x from here easily over the next decade."

Karen Finerman affirmed owning bitcoin but observed, "It is really not so tax-efficient. So I do end up having to sell some to pay taxes."

Here’s what’s going to happen when Brad Gerstner’s Invest America gets shopped around Congress

Brad Gerstner, the star guest of Wednesday's (3/27) Halftime Report, has a new initiative, this one called Invest America. (Not to be confused with The Board Challenge.)

Brad said the idea is for people to have a "401(k)-like account from birth." He indicated the plan is to get "America's best businesses to contribute to those kids' accounts of their employees."

Brad described the plan this way: "The government just has a really small role to play here. Put a seed into this account, 3.7 million children born every year, put a seed of a thousand dollars in it in the S&P 500, it can't be traded, and then let the magic of our markets work. People can contribute, birthdays (that's just what 5-year-olds want, donations to their S&P 500 account rather than toys), bar mitzvahs; companies can contribute like these companies have suggested that they would. And if you start with just a thousand bucks, contribute $750 a year, by 30 years old, it's $200,000 in the S&P 500."

Brad said he's been "incredibly heartened" by the response from Washington.

All of that is ... interesting food for thought. But then Brad went off the deep end, stating, "We expect that this will be a piece of legislation that we can get passed (snicker) in the spring of 2025."

Judge asked for rules on whether the money can be "traded" and when it can be withdrawn. Brad said people will have "different ideas." Brad said maybe at age 18, account holders could take out "up to 20%" for a "qualified one-time expense," such as college, starting a business or buying a first home (um, not that many 18-year-olds that we know are starting businesses or buying their first homes, but whatever). Brad suggested rules where you could take out 10% at 30 and 10% more at 40, and by 50, "you get the entire account."

OK ... hoo boy ... we started to wonder if Brad has discussed this idea with anyone who has actually been around Congress.

Because here's what's going to happen: 1) Invest America will be off limits to any child whose parents make $100,000 or more. 2) The kids who do get it will have 23 exceptions allowing them to withdraw the money at any time. 3) The S&P will never be allowed to go down because that will scare accountholders. 4) Government advisers will join the S&P selection committee. 5) The legislation will have to include some border provision. 6) The money when withdrawn will be taxed. And 7) Won't this be inflationary?

Judge said Brad continues to "live ambitiously ... stealing from our uh our obviously most recent marketing campaign."

Brad: Tech not in a bubble

Aside from Invest America, Brad Gerstner on Wednesday's (3/27) Halftime Report took up his specialty, the tech sector.

Brad said "just 18 months ago" that NVDA was 125 and META was 90, and "everybody hated those names," which isn't true, no one hated Nvidia; they did hate Meta but not Nvidia. Brad cited some megacap tech stocks and said we're not in "bubble territory."

Judge said some people don't think NVDA has a "moat" though it has a great "lead." Brad said everyone would like to have other options, but Jensen has made the product an "extraordinary value."

Asked about GOOGL, Brad said "the launch of Gemini was a disaster for this company," but he added to his stake after the stock slid to 130. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Joe Terranova said he likes the buy that Brad made in GOOGL and thinks the stock has found its "right price point."

Brad said he hopes whoever is elected U.S. president in November, we have a "tolerable partnership" with China.

It’s still tranquil (cont’d)

Joe Terranova opened Wednesday's (3/27) Halftime Report saying "Everyone thinks that we've run too far too fast."

Joe said he was at a "Morgan Stanley complex" on Tuesday and everyone was wondering when the correction's coming. (Which isn't surprising, given that just last week, Joe said the "entire financial services industry" knows the market is somehow in "need" of a correction.) But "never sell a quiet market," Joe advised, and if you're nervous, VIX insurance is "awfully cheap."

Kari Firestone said the market has run "perhaps too fast," but that doesn't mean it's going down.

Sarat Sethi said he likes that the rally is "broadening."

Steve Weiss said he didn't vote in the CNBC Delivering Alpha survey, as the others apparently did but maybe couldn't remember how they voted. Weiss said he would've voted that the market's gone "too far, too fast."

Joe asserted that financials are "underowned."

Guy says Biden approval rating is ‘probably at historic lows’

The most interesting news from Tuesday's (3/26) Halftime Report came late in the show when Jim Lebenthal announced he unloaded recent buy NYCB.

Jim said he felt like a "hero" when it surged to $4. Judge said it's a stock that "I was surprised that you got into in the first place." Jim said he has other things to worry about and "lost interest" in NYCB.

The second-most interesting news was Julia Boorstin reporting that the NFL is giving Peacock the Friday night game of the opening weekend; we're surprised Judge wasn't more excited. The game will be played in Brazil.

Meanwhile, Jim admitted he gets "kinda laughed at for holding" GM stock, but those who think the UAW stuck it to the company are mistaken. "When the UAW strike was settled and all the headlines were 'Lookit- Look at how the UAW pulled one over on management there.' Hah. Hah. Don't believe headlines folks. Do your own research," Jim advised.

Jason Snipe opened the show saying the "AI story" has been affecting AAPL in a "major way," and he sees the recent downtrend as an "opportunity" to buy, which he and Stephanie Link have done.

Stephanie Link argued that DoJ interest in AAPL is years away from resolution; Judge said it might serve as a "distraction" in the near term.

Jim said he's holding off on adding AAPL, looking to the "low 160s."

Judge promised Brad Gerstner on Wednesday. Brad of course will tell us how great SNOW is and how bad GOOGL is. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said, "I'm a little concerned that there won't be 3 cuts," citing James Gorman's suggestion that there won't be any cuts.

Grandpa Guy Adami claimed, "We've learned the hard way that asset prices have nothing to do with the economy. Because if it was just about asset prices, the president's approval rating would be through the roof, and it's probably at historic lows now through the prism (snicker) of just the economy."

Weiss says ‘CNBC rules’ keep him from flipping BA (as we wait for Jim to declare that BA needs to hire better mechanics) (Maybe Nelson Peltz has a plan for that)

Right after the A Block on Monday's (3/25) Halftime Report, Judge, back from more than a week away, turned to what was a good, perhaps great, Final Trade call by Steve Weiss the previous Friday: BA. (A great call not for the stock gain, but Weiss' observation that David Calhoun was getting pushed aside/ousted, which Jim sort of played down apparently because he thinks it somehow doesn't matter.)

Weiss on Monday said he bought the stock Friday, which was up about 1.8% during the show, and was still in it Monday, "only because I have to be, because of CNBC rules, but I'll be getting out of it."

Weiss noted what he was saying last week, "going on the road show, the board, without Calhoun, meant that he was out" and that customers said "enough's enough." After a brief coughing fit that Weiss impressively recovered from, Weiss said the company needs both a new CEO and new board and has an "extensive manufacturing problem and a culture that's gotta be reversed." He said the company has "gotta look to the outside."

Judge said Jim Lebenthal, who was also on Monday's panel, "defended Boeing forever." Jim insisted "the CEO is not the story here." (Honestly, we've been wondering for years what Jim thinks is the story — making better emergency slides?)

Judge told Jim, "The buck stops at the top." Jim said, "So what? ... Let's not get stuck on that."

Jim scoffed that some "DNA splice of Jack Welch and Warren Buffett and Bill Gates" wouldn't "fix this."

Jim said he wouldn't buy the stock, "absolutely not," which was basically Weiss' position; Weiss wants to sell, not buy. Joe Terranova wondered, "Why is everyone acting like it's such a great performance today. Stock's up 1%." Weiss cracked, "Annualize that."

Guy Adami on Fast Money said the Calhoun move is a "necessary step" and that had someone told him on Friday that the Calhoun news would happen over the weekend, he would've guessed the stock on Monday would be "north of $200." Even so, Guy thinks the recent 179 low will be "the low for a while."

Bonawyn Eison stated, "I wouldn't be surprised if '737 Max' is just banished from dictionaries."

Jim doesn’t care about neither Boeing’s CEO nor what the Fed does (as Weiss implies Tony doesn’t have anything to do)

Joe Terranova on Monday's (3/25) Halftime Report said Tony Pasquariello at Goldman Sachs wrote a "phenomenal note" in which Tony "summarizes" all the things in 2024 that would've made an investor think beforehand "the correction's coming." But Joe said it's a "tranquil environment" (snicker) in which "money is being treated well."

Steve Weiss said of Tony, "We love his stuff," but all that matters is, "is the Fed done," and when do the cuts start.

Judge wondered, "Why do people try to make it more complicated than that?"

Weiss said, "Everybody's gotta earn a living, Scott. That's why they make it more complicated. Because if they made it that simple, what would they do for work, right?"

Judge said people who have been negative aren't "dummies" but have noted "real risks," it's just that the market has "blown past" them. Weiss predicted inflation will stay "stubbornly high."

P.E. Ratio Trader Jenny Harrington said she's "negative" because "everything's too high."

Jim Lebenthal said that financials, industrials and energy are all outperforming tech this year and suggested people "simply diversify."

Jim stated, "I don't care about the Fed at this point." Judge said "Maybe you should," in case the market is "wholly (sic) (snicker) delusional" about rate cuts.

Joe has "no idea" why ANET was removed from Citi's Focus List.

Julia should’ve told Guy, ‘It’s like the Joe Gibbs story’ (a/k/a Mary Barra is on Rushmore?)

To no one's surprise, Jim Lebenthal on Monday's (3/25) Halftime Report said the "interesting" thing to him about the DIS outlook "is that streaming profitability is still projected for the end of the fiscal year," which Jim said is Sept. 30.

Jim said the "next leg" is what if streaming (somehow) becomes a "meaningful contribution" to profitability.

Joe Terranova said DIS looks "phenomenal" and is "breaking out" and one of the "best-looking momentum stocks in communication services."

Joe suggested that with some "synergy" (snicker) between Peltz and the DIS board, the stock could get back to the (roughly) $200 of early 2021 (when coincidentally, the chart looked great then too). Steve Weiss wondered, "What's that boardroom gonna look like if Iger's still on- still CEO."

The Fast Money crew opened their program on DIS, with Guy Adami observing, "You don't cost-cut your way to greatness, but you certainly can cost-cut your way to a stock that can continue to rally in this environment."

Dan Nathan said Chapek "filled in" for Iger.

Guy asked Julia Boorstin "how important is legacy," given that Iger after his first stint at DIS would've been Hall of Fame, "first ballot, no question," but now "people might start questioning things." Julia said "He needs to get this right," which doesn't really answer the question.

Dan Nathan said the DIS board is like the "Mount Rushmore of CEOs right now," so "they'll probably get it right."

Meanwhile on Halftime, Weiss stressed that NFLX is the "winner" and he "unfortunately" only has a small position.

Judge said Mike Mayo has upped his C target from 70 to 80. (Which is like $7 or $8, for those who remember 2008.)

Joe said the XLE is approaching its November 2022 high, and if it tops that, we're looking at 101, "which is where it traded in 2014 (snicker)." Jim said we could "easily get a rally in natural gas."

In a blast from the past, Wilfred Frost was guest hosting The Exchange.

Joe says ‘the entire financial services industry’ knows the stock market needs a correction, thinks people will chase emerging market debt

Joe Terranova on Friday's (3/22) Halftime Report lamented that in early February he predicted a down month, so, "I'm not gonna sit and predict a correction."

But, Joe said, "I think what is well known (snicker) throughout the entire financial services industry is the market is in need of a correction."

Joe said if the correction "unfolds," the "immediate investor reaction to that is to pivot into investment-grade, high-yield emerging market debt," a prediction that had us scratching our heads.

Evidently, Steve Weiss doesn't see it the same way as Joe, wondering, if he told people there's going to be a correction of 5-10% on Wednesday, "What are you gonna do about it," questioning who would be selling good stocks with big gains and pay the taxes.

Jim Lebenthal said of the correction, "Don't you DARE try to time it," though he assured, "I'm not trying to be insulting to anyone listening at home." Jim added, "I don't even think we're gonna get a full 10% correction." (But then how are people going to chase high-yield emerging market debt?)

Joe pointed to NVDA's day and said he's "hard-pressed" to believe the market could be having a correction if NVDA is up. (Even though the entire financial services industry says we "need" it.)

Bill Baruch, who joined the show remotely, is being prepared; Bill said he thinks "everybody can agree" that "there's some exhaustion in the market." Bill has bought S&P 500 puts expiring in May.

Liz Young said Q1 "might actually be kind of a nothing burger, so to speak."

Jim said if there's a "gangbusters" (snicker) economy, small caps might do well. Guest host Frank Holland said Tom Lee has made a small-caps-rallying-50%-this-year call, and right now, they're up "maybe 3%." Liz admitted, "That seems like a lot, to me." (Frank even repeated Lee's call later in the show.)

Joe said if you believe in a small-cap rally, then "regional banks are the obvious proxy for that."

Weiss calls BA a ‘great trade,’ says process unfolding to oust Calhoun

Jim Lebenthal on Friday's (3/22) Halftime Report bluntly declared he "would not touch" BA now.

Steve Weiss tried to interrupt as Jim suggested "there's talk that maybe Calhoun's gonna leave"; Jim told Weiss, "hold on Weiss, there's no need to interrupt there, OK, I'm making a point."

Jim went on to curiously say that "Calhoun's not the problem. He's not the solution."

In the show's final minute of Final Trades, Weiss got a chance to respond; he said he bought BA after hearing Jim and faulted Calhoun and called it a "great trade" as other parties try to oust Calhoun.

Meanwhile, Weiss said FDX the stock is doing better than FDX the company.

Joe cautioned against relying on LULU and NKE numbers/guidance as a read-through on the consumer.

Assessing LULU on Fast Money, Karen Finerman said she's not sure if she's pronouncing "Vuori" correctly. Karen's interested in buying LULU but cautioned that Lee Cooperman likes to say "you never see 1 bad quarter."

Josh explains what NVDA price targets mean

Thursday's (3/21) Halftime Report, with guest host Frank Holland, opened with Steve Kovach's report on MSFT's new AI PCs. (Zzzzzzz)

Kari Firestone said that so far, we've only been hearing about AI chips, and, "Nobody's been making any money off of AI really except for Nvidia." Kari said embedding AI in the PC is "ingenius."

On the Justice Dept. suit against AAPL, Josh Brown pointed out that consumers keep buying the product, so it's hard to see how they're being harmed. Bill Baruch said "I'm a big believer in capitalism" and it seems like being on the AAPL platform is a "privilege" and not a "right."

Kari said the suit has "some importance to shareholders," so she thinks AAPL will be under "some pressure." Josh said AAPL won in court against Fortnite. Josh said this is today's life for Megacap Tech; "They will never not be under scrutiny."

Steve Kovach said "we might have a Trump administration next year" and said the Trump DOJ started this probe into AAPL, but "Tim Cook was really good at cozying up to Donald Trump during his first (that's what Steve said) term as president."

Kevin Simpson bought more AAPL. Bill Baruch was trimming the shares on Wednesday.

Bill said MU was talking up "HBM," High Bandwidth Memory; "you're gonna see more and more of that popping up around."

Josh said NVDA has become a "universal buy" on the Street and shrugged that changing price targets is just about trying to "make sure that your investment bank is getting their share of the trading volume that's supposed to cross your desk."

Bill Baruch trimmed AMD; he wanted to "take a step back" after it got rejected at $200.

Kevin Simpson added to UNH. Josh Brown suggested waiting for the technicals to confirm a bottom.

Bill bought NUE, stating it's "breaking out."

Josh Brown touted DOW, MMM, MAR, RCL and financials such as C as some sort of "Trade School" of impressive charts.

Just like Judge has done a few times in the last few weeks, Frank somehow managed to end the show with 3 minutes of time to fill, so commercials finally connected viewers to Tyler Mathisen.

Steve didn’t exactly answer Joe’s question about the regional bank situation

Wednesday (3/20) was Fed day; even so, we figured, if Judge had been hosting the Halftime Report (he wasn't; he was off), we'd still be spending the A block talking about whatever Nvidia's doing.

Instead, guest host Frank Holland asked Joe Terranova to describe the market's approach to the Fed (or something like that).

"I think we're trying to search for some form of consternation in an environment that can absolutely be defined as 'tranquil,'" Joe stated.

Joe noted the VIX is below 15.

Bryn Talkington stated, "You (she meant anyone in general, not Joe) always sound smarter when you're bearish, right, because you can always point things out." But the S&P, Bryn said, going back to the 1950s, "goes up 75% of the time."

Bryn said humans are "very terrible" at predicting the future, so if the Fed were to announce it's going to do 2 cuts instead of 3, and the market sold off, that would be an "opportunistic" time to buy for investors.

Steve Weiss said he doesn't know that he agrees with Bryn's comments about being bearish sounds smarter, and Weiss suggested that "Joe should moderate his coffee intake before coming on the show."

Steve Liesman doesn't think Jay Powell will be "too exercised" by the last couple months of inflation data.

Joe asked Steve Liesman if the Fed has a "handle" on the regional bank situation. Steve said the Fed's message has been "they have a handle on it."

In the chip space (you knew it was coming), Weiss said he owns INTC "because of the foundry business." Bryn said she doesn't want to own the stock. Weiss said INTC has very low expectations and a decent growth outlook. Bryn said INTC's "execution" is going to take 1-3 years.

Joe observed that AVGO, the "reasonable alternative" (snicker) to higher-P.E. AI stocks, has pulled back from recent highs and hasn't yet recovered. But Joe said "the opportunity is somewhere in front of us."

On Fast Money, Grandpa Guy "The Fed's Lost Control Of The Bond Market" Adami was tempted to launch into another interest-rate critique before stopping himself and admitting that the stock market is at all-time highs.

One reason NFLX is such a good stock is because the company charges most people far less than what they’d actually pay

One happy story on Wednesday's (3/20) Halftime Report involved the 50-1 stock split of CMG.

Joe Terranova said the split is "phenomenal" for "employees" and "stakeholders." (Honestly, it's great that the company apparently is rewarding workers in some way, but we're not sure how the split is going to juice the portfolios of the guys making burritos.)

Steve Weiss scoffed that "there's no economic benefit" to the split and mocked the "retail investors who still don't get" that the return on the stock will be the same.

But Weiss said he's "never seen a restaurant stock hold this kind of premium valuation for so long. And it's been deserved."

Bryn Talkington, though, said the split is successful because only successful companies are splitting, and this "validates" the company's success. (Actually whether a company has been successful should already have been long recognized by the markets before the split, but whatever.) (If PYPL were doing a 50-1 split, then THAT would put Bryn's "validation" theory to the test.)

Guest host Frank Holland also disagreed with Weiss and said for sentiment, such a split can have a "big impact."

Meanwhile, Weiss said he sold "25%" of his bitcoin stake for profit-taking. Even so, "It's gonna keep goin'," Weiss said, arguing both that there's no "use case" but that it is a "legit asset class."

Weiss said he wishes he had a bigger NFLX position; "the stock just gets cheaper" with future growth expectations. Bryn said Weiss is "spot on," that NFLX will continue to be the winner in streaming.

Joe said the JOET owns DAL and UAL. But, after saying "My son is playing in the USA Youth Hockey National Championships in 2 weeks. By the way, sponsored by Chipotle," Joe said airlines are charging "unbelievable prices" for airline seats, "and there's no seats on the flights."

Weiss claimed to be agreeing with Joe's assertion about airline fundamentals, except that Weiss actually said, "These things, it's where value money goes to die."

Joe was asked, for about the 3rd (or was it 30th) time in a week, to predict the DRI earnings, and he once again mentioned his 2 favorite Italian restaurants.

Weiss' Final Trade was ADM (although it sounded like it may have been Joe's Final Trade). Weiss was the only one talking up this stock after it got slammed from the accounting issues; it's had a big 2-month gain.

Josh says NVDA reminds him of QCOM in 1999

In a speech about NVDA early into Tuesday's (3/19) Halftime Report, Josh Brown made this stark comparison: "It really does remind me of Qualcomm in, um, in 1999. I think the stock split twice in one calendar year. ... And it's not that the bulls were wrong about Qualcomm's opportunity in wireless. It's that they priced it all in, a decade's worth, inside of a year."

NVDA long Jim Lebenthal said the day's pullback in NVDA is "kind of noise to me." Jim said NVDA "can run for a little bit further. I don't think it's gonna double over the next 12 months."

Jim claimed that small caps are "where the puck is going," unless you see a recession ahead.

Later, Josh said there's a "ton of technical support" in UBER at 62. (This writer is long UBER.) Josh called the stock "substantially undervalued in the short term" and suggested it may be the only public company right now that could eventually be a Mag 7. Josh touted his holding of CRWD, saying "I'm long term and I'm not going anywhere."

Jim said NKE is a "show-me story right now."

Jim said the union is the "ace card" in the U.S. Steel deal at least as it pertains to Jim's Favorite Company on Earth, CLF. For as much as Jim has somehow talked about this stock, it trades at $20 and really has done nothing since 2020.

Karen Finerman on Fast Money addressed potential retail deals, saying "this whole space was so cheap," so offers aren't surprising, however, the idea of the Nordstrom family taking on debt to go private is a "little harder to fathom."

Weiss says he would ‘fall asleep’ during Jensen’s presentation

It was basically Kristina Partsinevelos Day on CNBC on Monday (3/18), even though the Halftime Report started off with somehow a different topic (see below).

But after Kristina's report, Joe Terranova seemed to reach for hyperbole in stating, "Jensen Huang probably has more impact on the market than Jay Powell does, this week."

Steve Weiss said there's "a lot of expectation" about Huang's speech but he expects "more of the same" and "I just wouldn't get excited about a 2-hour speech, probably- if I were there, I'd probably fall asleep during it."

Joe questioned when the market may price in "election risk" for semiconductors. Joe told guest host Melissa Lee it's "clearly not priced in." Weiss asked Joe "specifically" to outline the risks. Joe mentioned tariffs and wondered "does the supply chain get weaponized." Weiss said "the weaponization to date has been limiting the technology that China can buy; I'm not worried about it at all."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said she's "sort of intrigued" by how Jensen Huang is "a genius at being a CEO of a company that is in the middle of a huge wave and how to manage expectations and sort of how to manage the stock price. ... He's done a masterful job so far."

That got us wondering, how exactly has Jensen been "masterful" managing "expectations." Analyst put out revenue estimates. The company reports revenue. Is Jensen reading them nursery rhymes in the interim? Does Karen think most CEOs who sell a product for which demand has quadrupled (or something like that) wouldn't be able to triple the stock price in a year?

Grandpa Guy Adami warned that the Fed's lost control of the bond market the 77% NVDA margins are bound to come down sometime.

Weiss jousts with Mel throughout the entire program

Guest host Melissa Lee opened Monday's (3/18) Halftime Report talking about GOOGL's gain on its AAPL alliance. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

The subject actually prompted Joe Terranova to revisit a theme that he has curiously waffled on for more than a month: "This potentiatlly reignites the Mag 7 concentration outperformance." (#ohno) (#where'sAdamParker)

Joe said it's a "little bit puzzling" as to why AAPL is doing this and who's paying who. But he called it a "significant positive for Alphabet."

Steve Weiss affirmed he bought GOOGL on the heels of its bad Gemini news in anticipation of improvement (a good call) and declared, "Apple is not an innovator." He called it a "great deal for Alphabet."

Joe said the AAPL-GOOGL news was kind of like having a "big megadeal" when you wake up Monday morning.

Mel seemed visibly miffed that Weiss wanted to "butt in" during Mel's question to Shannon Saccocia. Weiss said OpenAI is not a perfect product and the perceived difference between MSFT and GOOGL is "not that great."

CNBC tech correspondent Steve Kovach weighed in, concluding, "Either way, it's great for Google."

Weiss trumpeted NFLX and his "small position" though he conceded it's "not cheap." He also trumpeted VRT, stating it's "gettin' kinda boring" talking about his portfolio winners. Mel said, "We're gonna dedicate the back half of the show to your losers." Weiss said that will be a "very short back portion." Mel said they could "fill 30 minutes."

Weiss and Mel were still trading jabs during Final Trade.

Weiss has a Call of the Year contender if ADM keeps climbing

Joe Terranova, who admitted recently he's not an Olive Garden fan, on Monday's (3/18) Halftime Report predicted "a good report from Darden on Thursday" taking the stock past an all-time high.

Joe also observed, "The refiners are a remarkably hot trade right now."

Steve Weiss admitted he sold FCX "around $40" a week ago and in a rare bit of self-deprecating humor said that his sale should've given the market "optimism" that it would go higher. Weiss did talk up ADM, which has been an excellent trade and an early Call of the Year contender.

Joe said TSLA is hiking prices "from a position of weakness." Joe said the stock has "broken momentum." However, he said, "It is oversold." Weiss said he's short TSLA, predicting the 200-day average in 200 days will be "at a hundred." Weiss stressed the company's governance and the "EV craze subsiding greatly."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman questioned why the Fed has to do 2 or 3 cuts, once again, wondering why the Fed would cut and "give it away." (Translation: Rate cuts should be "earned" by economic maelstrom and if the economy is doing fine with relatively higher rates, there's no reason to cut.)

Josh wonders if TSLA is the next META

Steve Weiss opened Friday's (3/15) sleepy Halftime Report saying he's shorted the QQQ and SMH.

Weiss did make a joke about getting Rob Sechan "a new joke writer."

Rob just bought LULU as a "little bit of a play on the consumer." He said he chose it over NKE.

Brenda Vingiello said ADBE, if anything, is a "buying opportunity."

A day earlier, Josh Brown on Thursday's (3/14) Halftime Report noted the META low of 2022 and wondered, "Is Tesla setting up to be the next Meta."

On Thursday's Fast Money, Melissa Lee wondered, "Nobody wants to talk about Dick's?," prompting Tim Seymour and Karen Finerman to stifle laughs.

Bill’s plan to hold ARM for 3-5 years ends after a month

Well, sometimes investors can be fickle.

Bill Baruch dialed in to Wednesday's (3/13) Halftime Report to say he sold ARM the previous Friday. He told Judge that he thought the stock could see profit-taking.

Which is curious, because not even a month ago, on Feb. 16, Bill told Judge that he plans to hold the stock 3-5 years for a possible "4x."

Bill had first said on 2/9 that he bought ARM, and it was $115 that day, so we already had "Bill/ARM" penciled in as an early contender for Call of the Year.

Seems like enthusiasm for that designation may wane given the latest developments.

Bill bought more SCCO and also bought PSX.

Judge on Wednesday didn't bring up NYCB, Jim Lebenthal's new buy for his personal account, but it was up 9%.

Tables at Primola bound to be full on Wednesday night (a/k/a Kari’s shop picks curious things to research)

Judge couldn't get out of the first 30 seconds of Wednesday's (3/13) Halftime Report without mentioning "Nvidia."

Joe Terranova argued that the overall market momentum trend (or something like that) isn't changing even while contending "Nvidia right now by the way is, is literally the market."

Kari Firestone said her shop looked up, in the last 20 years, "all the stocks over 20 billion in market cap that were up more than 200%, 200%, in a 12-month period." They found that "the majority underperform the market in the following 12 months."

The conclusion, Kari said, is that "it's not a given" that NVDA or others will keep surging for 3-4 years.

OK, a couple of our own conclusions from that ... 1) It hardly seems the statistic Kari cited should affect anyone's decision to own NVDA right now. Maybe, if you somehow absolutely had to hold it for at least a year if you bought it right now, and you were leaning against, it could further nudge you in that direction. 2) Kari didn't mention any of the stocks (we're not sure how many there would be) meeting this 200%-in-12-months criteria. If the vast majority took place in 1999, well then ... 3) A lot of stocks that some people have accused of being bubbles were actually bubblicious for more than 12 months. 4) Where does bitcoin fit into all of this.

Judge claimed "It's a JOET kind of market," stating "more than a third of the holdings" are at or near all-time highs. (Seems like mathematically that should probably always be true whenever the market itself is around an all-time high.)

Joe proclaimed, "I think the trends will continue. I think this is a year about trend following." (Except a few weeks ago, he was calling for underweight Mag 7, so who knows what "trends" Joe is referring to.)

Joe actually stated, "There's big election risk surrounding semiconductors." Can't he just figure out which presidential candidate has the "momentum"?

Joe said LLY is on a "journey" to a $1 trillion market cap but he thinks it'll have "a little bit of traffic in the interim." Kari said she would not buy LLY right now. Joe said he doesn't share the "grand enthusiasm" for health care that others have.

Judge said "the news today" in DIS was a David Faber exclusive, that Jamie Dimon had "publicly" supported Iger vs. Trian. Judge said Trian released a statement suggesting JPM is merely "prioritizing its commercial relationship with Disney's management."

Joe observed, "This is by far the most compelling and interesting business story we have in front of us" (snicker). Joe said he read Peltz's thesis, "100-plus pages," and "a lot of what Nelson Peltz is saying in there makes a lot of sense." Joe said he wishes "they would come together."

Kari Firestone said of Peltz, "I think he deserves a seat on the board."

Joe said he'd rather buy DIS at $150 "with some synergy and some cooperation" between Peltz and Iger than to buy it currently at $112 in this state of affairs.

Joe said the JOET is "break-even" on DRI, but "for a Sicilian that loves Italian food, I'm not going to Olive Garden. I'm going to Primola or Bamontes living in New York."

Judge endorsed those recommendations, stating, "OK. Good stuff. I like both of those spots, glad you bring 'em up."

Joe said he's "not surprised" by Joe Biden's pending statement on the U.S. Steel takeover. Neither Joe nor Judge commented on Mr. Biden's "fair share" taxation plan.

Jim indicates Fed, Treasury, FDIC can’t let NYCB fail

On Monday, it was Karen Finerman. On Tuesday, Jim Lebenthal followed suit.

It took Judge until the 5th minute of Tuesday's (3/12) Halftime Report to talk about Joe Biden's "fair share" round of tax hikes ask Jim about what obviously was going to be the panel's biggest move, buying NYCB — "controversial to say the least" — for Jim's personal account.

Jim offered several reasons for buying it, but his last one is obviously more important than all the others combined. Jim asserted that the Fed and FDIC and Treasury know "this bank has to survive."

If that's the case, Tuesday's price is a bargain. (This writer has no position in NYCB.)

Jim stressed to Judge that "this is a speculative trade" and it's not for his clients.

Jim conceded NYCB has "some uninsured deposits" but said it has "the liquidity to, to match that." He said it has enough equity to take a 1/3 loss on its commercial real estate portfolio.

Then Jim mentioned what's obviously a big reason both he and Karen bought NYCB, that "Steve Mnuchin's no dummy." Good point; Mnuchin is one of the few, if any, Trump Cabinet success stories.

Judge questioned if the current share price of NYCB, being down from the post-Mnuchin jolt of a week ago, was a reflection of the business. Jim said he'd give himself a stop at $2.70.

Josh Brown said the reason the stock isn't higher is because of "probably something technical" and that buyers such as Jim could maybe take advantage of all the indexes kicking out the stock. Jim said maybe the stock was up Tuesday because of a reverse split to get it over $5.

Meanwhile, Jim sold NXPI because, of course, it was too big in his portfolio.

In other moves far less interesting than NYCB, Judge opened asking Josh about buying EBAY. Josh said it broke out of its 38-50 range that it's been stuck in since summer 2022. He also bought the NDAQ for a "breakout in progress," though it might need to "cool off" from its 75 RSI. He called NDAQ the "No. 1 play" on a return to capital markets.

Judge said, "I almost feel like the CPI today was a nothing burger," one of his and the show's recent favorite terms. (At some point, they'll revert back to "At the end of the day ...")

Karen buys NYCB

It was, by far, the most interesting call of the day. Especially given Judge's tiresome go-round on Nvidia.

Karen Finerman on Monday's (3/11) Fast Money discussed buying NYCB.

"This I think of as an option that now has life," Karen said, while acknowledging to a skeptical sounding Mel, "The downside here? I think- could- could it go to zero? That could happen. This deal falls apart, I don't think it will, but that could happen. ... I think that the more likely scenario is that they start to work their way out of it."

Karen has always expressed admiration for Steve Mnuchin and mentioned Mnuchin again Monday.

This is a very interesting move. It's tempting, even for those of us who nibbled a bit on FRC or SIVB a year ago at this time.

Weiss says ‘some moron’ was talking about bitcoin on Squawk Box

Monday's (3/11) Halftime opened as many episodes of Halftime do:

How's Nvidia doing?

Amy Raskin said she trimmed NVDA. "We think it's prudent to take profits," Amy said.

Jim Lebenthal said at some point NVDA's roll will stop, but not "anytime soon," as he expects people to buy the dip down 5-10%.

Judge asked Steve Weiss if they need to look for "trouble" on the list of all the surging-since-November-1st NVDA-related names like TSM, ARM and SMCI. Weiss said "some are clearly ahead of themselves" and he trimmed TSM because (of course) it was "too big of a position."

Joe Terranova said the next few weeks are "one of the more dangerous periods of 2024 for investors" (well, given that the first 2 months were awesome, so far, that's a correct statement) because there's "no new fundamental information ... and right now, the technicals are in control of the market."

Joe noted that crypto hasn't cooled off yet.

As Judge dragged this subject about 15 minutes beyond its usefulness (we knew he wouldn't talk about the Oscars but were a little surprised neither Judge nor his panel seems to care about Joe Biden's "fair share" taxation plan), Joe agreed that NVDA is the "litmus test" for the market's high fliers.

Joe insisted he's "just trying to define the environment."

Jim stressed that things outside of tech are working such as GM and C and CLF.

On Fast Money, as usual, Dan Nathan was detecting a "bubble environment."

Weiss said he's buying more bitcoin though insisting "I'm not buying the momentum," but he bought more because the U.K. "approved it for funds" and "some moron on Squawk Box talking about how you can use it to buy gold sneakers."

Judge kept hectoring Weiss that Weiss "wouldn't" be buying crypto without "renewed momentum." Weiss protested that he'd "straighten ya out" and asserted that "Every fund company in the world is rushing to market with a bitcoin product."

Weiss told Joe he wouldn't sell bitcoin down 15% "because you're still gonna have the marketing of it."

CNBC's Megan Cassella provided breaking news on the U.S. national debt.

Amy Raskin bought AXP for more "consumer exposure." She also bought NTRA and ACN, the latter to boost "tech weighting," always an exciting rationale.

Weiss sold FCX, claiming it was a fundamental reason. He bought more ADM, a stock he's been fascinated with since those accounting issues, he thinks it could get "right back to the '80s."

Joe agrees with bull calls on LLY but said the stock could be "sitting in traffic." Weiss said he owns NFLX because it's the "one real winner" in streaming (even though Jim suggested the whole space is winning in his Final Trade of DIS). Amy isn't sure that now's the time to buy NKE.

Joe said ADBE needs to "jump-start the momentum."

The CNBCfix Awards-Season
Movie Guide

Don't go into the Oscars empty-handed. This page once again is going to try to set things straight on how Hollywood and the international filmmaking community fared in 2023 just as the big prizes are handed out. Yes, we know Judge doesn't have the time to delve into the arts (even for, like, 5 minutes) on the Halftime Report, but the Halftime Report/CNBC audience is the greatest audience/viewership in the world and actually is interested in the statements being made cinematically. (Like we always say, we're here because you are.)

There are no spoilers here, but a few details for some of these films. In no way is this page predicting any Oscar winners; the Hollywood Reporter's latest odds are probably your best bet. (This critique was posted on Saturday evening, March 9, 2024.) With no further ado and in no particular order ...

Past Lives — Every film project has to answer the question, What is this movie going to show? In "Past Lives," it is people sitting in front of computers on video chats, then sitting around their apartments, then having conversations with significant others who seem to be pulled off the streets to play a significant other.

Maestro — If it can't decide whether it's a tragedy, neither can the viewers.

The Holdovers — The ultimate in victimhood. (Not only that, but it's victimhood that isn't shown, but relayed in conversation.) Who knew that elite prep schools functioned as minimum security prisons.

Anatomy of a Fall vs. The Taste of Things — Perhaps the most interesting Oscar duel has already been fought, in France, which chose the Juliette Binoche vehicle "Taste" as its Oscar International Film submission over Cannes star "Anatomy," which only ended up with a Best Picture nomination. Most critics prefer the latter, but "Anatomy" is ambiguous, and "Taste" has the foodies. "Anatomy" spends too much time talking to lawyers; "Taste" spends too much time in the kitchen.

Barbie — The Oscar winner for product placement, though everyone agrees Mattel did it right. Not the type of film that typically does well at the Oscars but, as The Most Corporate Movie in History, is probably already resetting the guidelines for corporate-arts partnerships. ("Boeing on the line to Brian DePalma ...")

Poor Things — Would've been rated NC-17 in the '90s. It's not for the squeamish, but in the latter half, as the plot gains shape, some interesting filmmaking takes place.

Air — Luckily Sonny Vaccaro threw away the tapes of the 1984 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16. Not in the Oscar hunt but probably more entertaining than a lot of those that are.

Napoleon — Admittedly, the greatest drama is in the first 10 minutes. We know the beginning, ending and middle of this story. Not a bad reminder.

American Fiction — The preview is better than the movie, which pairs a family drama with a pop culture commentary and serves wine and conference calls with each helping.

Killers of the Flower Moon — The bust of the 2023 awards crop. After getting over the bewilderment of Why Did She Marry This Guy, viewers await the killings in paint-by-number sequence. Only after about 4 hours is it time to go.

Perfect Days — If you gotta go, here's the place. Wim Wenders' greatest film is undoubtedly "Paris, Texas"; this time, he's mixed "Lost in Translation" with "Good Will Hunting" and "Groundhog Day." There are great truths here about the simple pleasures of life and having no aspirations for wealth, power, fame, but with it comes a family detachment that feels like it must be painful.

The Iron Claw — You won't hear it called on Sunday; it's not nominated for any Oscars. The filmmakers wanted to re-create a seemingly unfathomable tragedy. They inadvertently included a much stronger movie: How the children of extraordinarily successful people can feel trapped.

The Zone of Interest — The heavy favorite for the International Film Oscar, its message is the same as 1985's "Shoah" and numerous other films on this subject, but punctuated by a static visual.

The Boy and the Heron — The depiction of the "heron" is stranger than the plot, which starts off awkwardly without really righting itself.

Showing Up — This slice of life of the young arts crowd may mean something, or maybe not. Life throws all kinds of curveballs, apparently, and we just have to keep dealing with it.

Anyone But You — After this quiet hit, Sydney Sweeney is gonna be in everything.

Saltburn — The first 30 minutes, which is the school-clique drama, is the superior part of the movie. Barry Keoghan is a great actor, but "carrying" a movie like this is a big job.

The Teachers Lounge — For intensity, this classroom drama, among the most watchable films of the year, is almost on par with Adam Sandler's "Uncut Gems." As in "Anatomy of a Fall," the characters and audience have to arrive at their own truths. Some will find its conclusions less than satisfying.

Dumb Money — Not up for any Oscars. The supposed hook is that The Little Guy Who Believes in Something can slay the giants of Wall Street. Maybe every once in a while.

Oppenheimer — Perhaps the strongest awards juggernaut since "Titanic," it's the traditional War Hero Western that lifts this portrayal that could've been sunk by its Reason For the Movie, the gray, bureaucratic, booklike government backstabbing. Leaders Who Get Along With Everyone ... what a notion.

Kevin Simpson says AVGO ‘probably’ should be $900

Early into Friday's (3/8) Halftime Report, Judge told Joe Terranova that NVDA hit 950, "now it's below 9," and asked Joe, "What do you make of that?"

Joe thought he'd present a speech, stating, "What's going on in the market right now is very clear. This is about cooling off some of the really intense, strong momentum in the chip sector itself (sic last word redundant). It's about the chips ... this is healthy."

Joe noted AAPL and Alphabet were higher; he said he wouldn't bother owning Alphabet puts anymore.

Judge suggested the "rising tide" associated with AI "got lifted too much." That sounds like a Noah's Ark problem.

Judge hectored the AVGO longs/trimmers by pointing out that everyone had been saying it was a "cheaper" version of NVDA. Joe finally acknowledged that it was a "valuation alternative" (snicker).

Kevin Simpson said he'd "absolutely" be buying AVGO again if it has a significant pullback; "if it gets to 900, that's- that's probably where it should be trading." Judge said that would be an "uncomfortable drop." Simpson said, "Not for me. I sold it." Judge said, "Good point."

Shannon Saccocia suggested the Mag 7 could become the "Fab 4" or "Neo 1."

Jason Snipe said, "It was time to take a breather."

Jason called the 7% COST selloff an "overreaction."

On metals and materials, Joe said of gold, "sold it too quick," then went on to lament copper. Stephanie Link asked Joe the question that Judge for some reason didn't, what is the surge in gold telling us. Joe said it's like asking him who's going to win the World Series, he has "no clue." Stephanie said gold's gain "definitely worries me."

Jason Snipe thinks ANET "keeps going." Joe said "refiners are in a very strong position."

Have to say, kinda curious that neither Judge nor his panelists offered any thoughts on the taxation proposals heard in the State of the Union address Thursday night; we might turn to Lee Cooperman for thoughts on the "fair share."

On Fast Money, Tim Seymour got really excited about Steve Grasso's mention of "lubricants" during a gold mining discussion.

Josh says White House’s planned buyback tax hike is ‘childish’; Jim calls it ‘farcical’

CNBC's gorgeous Megan Cassella reported during Thursday's (3/7) Halftime Report that Joe Biden was going to propose increasing the stock buyback tax from 1% to 4%. However, this idea apparently didn't make it into the State of the Union speech. (This review was posted overnight Thursday-Friday.)

Josh Brown opined, "I hate when they do this because it's so childish. They have to know that- they have to know that buybacks are not the reason for the economy not doing what they want the economy to do. Surely they have to know that. It's just, I think, a shorthand to, you know, give a nod to certain groups who don't even know what a buyback is, and be like, 'We- We're on your side with this.'"

Jim Lebenthal cited GM and twice said of Biden's plan, "It's farcical."

Those were good comments by Josh and Jim; we're guessing Lee Cooperman might have something stronger.

Josh says NFLX will get the NFL in a couple years; Judge gets more Teams invites than Zoom invites

The most provocative comment from Thursday's (3/7) Halftime Report came from Josh Brown, who said NFLX's Tyson fight will be "huge" (that's not the provocative part) and predicted "I think Netflix is gonna get like the NFL in a couple of years."

Meanwhile, Josh said if you're long NVDA, the only thing to do is make sure the position doesn't get so big that it "swamps the rest of your holdings."

Jim Lebenthal admitted trimming NVDA "was actually a mistake." But Jim thinks the market is "frothy" and in a "melt-up."

Josh pointed out the SMH is up 28% on a 10-year annualized basis.

Liz Young said there's a "good amount of risk appetite." Liz said the market will continue at an "OK speed" until there are rate cuts.

Liz said we've learned that the market can go up without AAPL.

Brian Belski said the market's "a little frothy here." Belski contended that when "everybody agrees that things are positive, I wanna go the other way."

Belski trimmed JPM. He actually said there's an "opportunity for some regional banks to add scale." Josh favorably compared JPM with "basket case stocks like Citi." Jim said Josh is being "too dismissive" of the right-sizing that Jane Fraser is doing and spoke of buybacks. "Cost-cutting, big deal," Josh scoffed. Jim said the growth area is "credit cards." Belski said you can own both JPM and C.

Josh has already sold MCD, down a couple points since his buy; "it's just a stop loss" and he's already got SHAK, which he thinks is a better stock.

Josh said he sold ZM, a recent tout, after "it started to fall off," saying "it's just doing nothing."

Regarding ZM, Judge observed, "the fact that I feel like I get many more ... more Teams invites than you do for Zoom," and wondered if it means anything. Josh said that's the pressure on ZM.

Belski bought more LULU.

Josh Brown suggested watching the 450 level for UNH and cautioned, "Has maybe the story fundamentally changed?"

Judge sort of mocked Jim for not liking DE as much as the stocks in his portfolio that are doing well; Judge said that's an "obvious point."

Judge chuckled at Josh's "home team" prediction of "Oppenheimer" and Robert Downey Jr. at the Oscars. "Congrats to the parent company," Josh said.

Nick of time: Karen says NYCB was ‘less than 1 day from failure’

For reasons unclear, Judge stocked a full panel at Post 9 on Wednesday's (3/6) Halftime Report on a Fed-testimony day. Nearly the first half-hour went to that testimony, before Judge and Leslie Picker cut in with NYCB news and left Jay Powell in the dust. (And anytime you start hearing about regional banks on CNBC, you're guaranteed to hear "idiosyncratic.")

NYCB long Jenny Harrington, who was at Post 9, said "we've been working out of it" and the position is down to a "very very small amount." Jenny said "this is a management and messaging disaster" that should be a Harvard "case study," but it shouldn't "extrapolate into all regional banks."

Jenny claimed, "This is why we trim positions. This was a great stock 2 months ago. This was an amazing stock a year ago." (Actually, it really wasn't. We looked at the chart. It had a great first half of 2023. Other than that ...)

Then Jenny stated, "This share price, at a buck-86, is really- is really upsetting."

But had she been buying there, she would've had a huge gain within a couple hours. (This review was posted overnight Wednesday-Thursday.) And, as a matter of fact, seeing the shares climb Wednesday afternoon, Jenny dialed in to Closing Bell. Jenny said what's happened with new management is "extremely smart." Nevertheless, "there's just too much ambiguity," so Jenny will "continue to sell out of the stock." And then she might buy it again (yeah, right).

Also on Closing Bell, Judge had Josh Brown at Post 9 and pointed out that Josh dabbled in NYCB "about a month ago" and got out. Josh said Wednesday "this is playing with fire" and that anyone who bought the stock Wednesday at $1.70 "was probably gambling or they had inside information."

Back on Halftime, Joe Terranova said of NYCB, "I don't think this is a larger problem. I do think this is evidence that the big banks get bigger."

Bryn Talkington observed, "The 10-year's almost back at 4%."

Joe Terranova said the "generative AI story" is "overwhelming" market concerns about the Federal Reserve or the economy.

Joe credited CRWD management for not being like Palo Alto.

Because the first half of the hour went to Powell and the rest to NYCB/other market things, Judge didn't deliver a single commercial, which perhaps makes up for a day earlier when Judge botched the transition to The Exchange and viewers got 3 minutes of commercials between Final Trades and Dom Chu's appearance. Yet still, trying to fill the remaining 3 minutes of Wednesday's show, Judge turned to Jenny, who said, "Do I need to go?"

Judge said it's quite possible we're just having "2 idiosyncratic bank issues within the span of 12 months."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said she thinks NYCB was "less than 1 day from failure." Karen questioned the sudden declaration that the goodwill is "zero" and why it wasn't written down previously.

Karen also suggested "they were calling Jamie Dimon and he was like, 'No way, I'm not taking this call.'"

Karen concluded that while NYCB had a turnaround on Wednesday, it's still an argument for the big banks.

Karen said she wondered if a rate cut or a rate hike are both off the table because of the "political environment."

Everybody’s got some new slogan for the stock market that doesn’t include TSLA

As easy as it is to fault Judge for a sleepy, endless A Block go-round on AAPL on Tuesday's (3/5) Halftime, note the Fast Money crew didn't have anything better.

Among other Halftime issues, Judge was stuck in Englewood Cliffs while Carl and Sara were at Post 9; Jim Lebenthal was the only panelist able to join Judge in EC.

Judge actually claimed that AAPL's move is a "moment." Steve Kovach said "'Moment' is the exact way to put it" (snicker).

Josh Brown said if you're an "actual trader," you're already out of AAPL, but longer-term investors who have previously panicked "have been severely punished."

Jim said it's a "heavy tape" and that he's been "comfortable" owning AAPL and that it'll "find its level."

Sarat Sethi said not to trade AAPL, but hold it.

Josh said the newest stock label is the "Sensational 6" and that "Tesla's out." Josh said he's bullish S&P 500 over "Nasdaq names." (See how long that lasts.)

Jim said, to use a tennis analogy, that AI is only in the "first set" (snicker).

Jim said he bought CASY, saying he's looking for lesser-known names; he said CASY stores in the Midwest are "actually a social center; not being pejorative or making fun of anyone."

Josh said PFE is trading at an "11-year low." Josh said "COVID just absolutely wrecked this company" and that it went "all in" on Paxlovid and the vaccines, and now "nobody cares about the shots."

Bill Baruch bought DUK and joined the program remotely to discuss; "it's not a sexy buy," he's just "planting a seed" and he thinks it's beginning to control capex.

Josh said TOST has been on a "rampage" in the last month.

Judge really botched the transition to The Exchange, wrapping up Final Trades a full 3 minutes before viewers got Dom Chu. #ohwell,extracommercials

Karen buys more M

On Monday's (3/4) Fast Money, Karen Finerman said the M bidders are hoping for M to say it's up for sale and that "they aren't ultimately the buyers."

Karen said she's long M and bought more Monday, sensing "a couple more episodes" of this battle.

Karen said of the market, "It does feel frothy though, I gotta say."

Dan Nathan challenged Karen on the notion that NVDA isn't frothy. Karen responded that 25 years ago, when CSCO was "THE Nvidia of its day," it traded at nearly 400 times.

Dan wondered if everything is so "rosy" in the market, "Where are the IPOs?" Karen said, "It takes a little time." Dan said there's not even "chatter" about them.

On Judge's Closing Bell on Monday, Grandpa Malcolm Ethridge, who has scorned the stock market for about 2 years running, said it's basically just the "Magnificent 1."

Adam Parker on Closing Bell said the stock market leads GDP, and it's "telling you the economy's probably gonna be fine 6- 6-9 months from now." Adam said he's a Patriots fan.

Judge calls crypto an ‘asset class’ (as Jim continues to say it doesn’t matter if DIS overpays for Hulu by $3 billion)

Judge mentioned LLY on Monday's (3/4) Halftime Report and said it seems like Steve Weiss, who hasn't been in the name, previously picked the wrong names, UNH and HUM. Weiss agreed. Weiss said he doesn't want to "chase" LLY because there are other drugs on the market.

Joe Terranova said LLY "should be part of the Mag 7," saying he'd argue that LLY is "more relevant" than TSLA.

Weiss said the surge in bitcoin is "purely the marketing power right now of BlackRock, of Fidelity, and more to come." Joe suggested ethereum could have more room to run than bitcoin does.

Jim said the "path to profitability in streaming" (snicker) is "the future" of DIS. Jim even brought up the most pointless company asset, Hulu. Jim claimed that there's some "believers" that Iger can "monetize ESPN." (Earth to Jim: DIS' media assets are melting icebergs.)

For Final Trades, Joe said to hold on to GOOGL puts. Weiss said to buy GOOGL stock. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Weiss says overweighting or underweighting sectors is ‘crap’

On Monday's (3/4) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss made some comments about S&P categories that this page agrees with.

Weiss said it's "a mistake to rely on S&P classification" but basically "all asset managers do."

"I choose not to do that," Weiss said, explaining he looks "bottom up" for stocks with good fundamentals. Weiss doesn't say he's overweight this or underweight that, "that's crap to me."

Judge asked Jim Lebenthal why he's buying AMAT; "why do you want it here," Judge practically sneered. Jim said he wants to be in the semiconductor capital equipment space and (of course) the multiple isn't as bad as it seems.

Judge pressed on whether Jim feels "comfortable" buying this kind of chart. Jim said yes because it's a "small" starter position.

Weiss said ASM is "underfollowed and underappreciated."

Jim said he sold TMO and mentioned, of course, the forward multiple. Joe Terranova said the JOET unloaded TMO last April.

Struggling to think up threats to the bull market, Weiss doesn’t even suggest China goin’ after Taiwan

We got excited when we saw that Monday's (3/4) Halftime Report crew included Joe "Underweight the Mag 7" Terranova, Steve Weiss and Jim Lebenthal ... only to quickly be lulled to sleep.

Jim started off saying "we're actually in a shoulder month," which apparently means we're at the end of the Q4 earnings reports and a long ways from the Q1 reports. So Jim said the macro, especially inflation numbers, will drive the market.

Judge said Deutche Bank is saying that if this week is up, it'll be 17 out of 19, the first time since 1964, and that Deutsche Bank is calling it "remarkable" and "relentless."

"I use the word 'complacent,'" Weiss said. "The market does need time to pause," Weiss stressed.

Joe agreed the market needs to pause or condolidate but pointed out TSLA, GOOGL and AAPL are all down while BAC, GS and MS are up. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Weiss admitted it's "difficult" to think up unknown snags to the market. He said hotter inflation would be a problem, "but that's not gonna happen" because China is trying to be an export economy.

Jim said "there are some cracks," that ISM was "lousy" and we're "hearing more about layoffs."

Steve Liesman reported that Raphael Bostic is concerned about "pent-up exuberance." Judge said the fact Bostic is putting the number 2 on potential cuts this year suggests he's in a "little bit more hawkish camp."

Joe again stated, "The Federal Reserve is no longer adversarial, that's all that matters, quite candidly." Joe took a jab at Jim's concerns about ISM ("has been in decline for basically the la- better part of the last year") and layoffs ("that speaks to the cost efficiency, the head count reduction that's actually benefitting stocks in the market"). Jim pushed back that what he's seeing is that "the Fed is going to be late to cuts, and when they do cuts, it's gonna be for the wrong (snicker) reason."

Judge said Savita has hiked her target to 5,400. He said "there's like 6 strategists" who have already raised targets because they're "chasing."

Jim pronounced Tony Pasquariello's last name as "Pascarelli."

Karen says male panelists on Fast Money do more talking than she does ...

We've been hearing on Fast Money for a while about Karen Finerman's regular podcast called "How She Does It." We figured, if we didn't start listening soon, they might toss us outta the union.

Immediately, a bit of a curiosity. The podcast is billed as hosted by Karen and promising each week "a conversation with a female leader — leaders in all industries — who make their own space and build their careers in unique ways."

On the most recent episode, posted Feb. 26, 2024, that female leader was Karen herself — and the host was Jean Chatzky.

No question, Karen qualifies as guest material. But she's already the host of the podcast. It's kind of like Johnny Carson asking Billy Crystal to host "The Tonight Show" so that Johnny can be the guest. Karen chuckled to Chatzky that she's "a little bit embarrassed" about being the guest of her own podcast.

Anyway. Karen freely discussed her upbringing and educational and professional background. Around the 17th minute, Chatzky asked about the Fast Money experience.

"I would bet that if I were to look at on any given show, how much time I spent talking vs. each of the men, I'm pretty confident it would be less. And, I'm just not comfortable, sort of putting my foot down and saying 'No no no, let me finish, let me finish.' But I'm getting better at it. And, the other thing is, the show is better when there's a little tension and a little pushback," Karen explained.

(Honestly, when you compare what Tim Seymour says with what this page, or any page, says, rest assured everyone else is going to be "less.")

Karen says her best investment ever (in terms of finance) is bitcoin ...

Karen Finerman's "How She Does It" podcast includes a "Lightning Round" (yes, same name as a feature associated with another CNBCer) or "Would You Rather" (yes, same name as a Fast Money feature), according to guest host Jean Chatzky, who used both terms when interviewing Karen herself.

In the process, there was quite a revelation.

Asked for her best investment ever, Karen admitted, "I'm embarrassed to say," but it's bitcoin; "it's so not my kind of thing, and it went berserk."

So what does that tell you about Wall Street training and experience and all of those things people study at Wharton. Someone trained in risk-arbitrage makes their biggest haul by following the Winklevi.

There weren't many other revelations about Fast Money (we'll skip Chatzky's curious comment about reasons she tunes in to the show), but Karen said she didn't think much of Elon Musk until reading the bio, but it seems he had a "really difficult childhood," and the whole package has been a net-net to society, so "I have changed my mind about Elon."

We learned that Chatzky and Finerman are involved in a project called "InvestingFixx." Which is a great name/branding.

Wendy had her own office at 21 (but made her best investment from a bathroom discovery)

Another interview subject in the Karen Finerman podcast series "How She Does It" is Karen's sister Wendy Finerman, who years ago brought the "Forrest Gump" best picture Oscar to the Nasdaq marketsite for an appearance (by the statue, not Wendy) on CNBC's Fast Money.

Scanning over the list of Karen's interview subjects, we noticed the title of the Wendy interview is "Making America's Most Iconic Movies With Wendy Finerman."

Hmmmmm ... (Uh oh ... This one's gonna get us tossed outta the union) ... (#gulp) (#sigh) ... including the words "America's Most" in that title seems a bit .... hmmm ... grandiose.

(Also, "iconic" is way overused, how about just "famous.")

Karen introduced Wendy saying Wendy "has created some of the most loved and iconic movies of our era, or any era."

An interesting term there is "created."

Forrest Gump was a 1986 novel by Winston Groom. It became a movie directed by Robert Zemeckis and starring Tom Hanks and including an elite crew. The Wikipedia page for "Forrest Gump" says there was a bidding war for the film adaptation, which Wendy was able to win by teaming with Steve Tisch ("Risky Business," only person with an Oscar and a Super Bowl ring) and "joining forces with Warner Bros., where Finerman's husband Mark Canton was president of production." Nowhere in the How She Does It podcast is there a mention of a husband running a Hollywood studio.

One of the curious things about the podcast is that the subjects tend to have had outsized success and their careers are going to be relevant mostly to other already 1-percenters. Karen Finerman didn't ask Wendy "How many hours did you work daily at age 21 and how many hours do you work daily now," but if she had, chances are, that number is going to be higher than most people (even aspirational ones) are willing to commit to.

Wendy says she was fielding offers at Wharton and "along came this job at The Movie Channel," and 4 days out of college, she was "anointed the chief financial analyst for The Movie Channel," which probably doesn't happen for everyone. "I had my own office, 21 ... nobody else did." Try duplicating that career arc. (First, it's more likely you can do academics at the level of Wharton if you have parents who already attended Wharton.)

Karen noted in a question that many people find it "impossible" to break into the movie business. Wendy never answered the question, except to say she was asked by one interviewer to name the most "iconic thing in cinema," and she mentioned Rosebud of "Citizen Kane," which happened to be that particular interviewer's favorite movie. (So, there's your luck factor.)

Karen, surprisingly, never asked Wendy exactly what a producer does. We assume it varies by production and level of interest, financially and otherwise, but that in general, they put the pieces in place for the movie to reach completion and be marketed. But, it would be better to hear that from Wendy. We did get this anecdote, "without sounding boastful," that according to Wendy, one director told another director, "There is not a better producer in the world than Wendy."

Is any part of the job like what Tim Robbins does in "The Player"? How does Wendy spot talent, or does she (as is implied industrywide in "The Player") mostly cull popular books for production ideas.

Karen could've asked Wendy, "What does 'Forrest Gump' or 'The Devil Wears Prada' mean to you and/or what should it mean to viewers." (We would've settled for Wendy's opinion on "Road House.") If there is a beef about Wendy's career, it's that this interview seemed to rate movie success by the bottom line and never did she mention being moved by the magic of cinema or being inspired by something that didn't make a dime or win an award.

Karen's follow-through isn't always crisp. In an early discussion about a family tragedy, neither Karen nor Wendy explains why Wendy was apparently compelled to assume parenting roles. Wendy is also the oldest child in the family. Is there something to the perceived dynamic of first children being more driven?

Karen bluntly asked Wendy if it's "getting any better" for women in Hollywood. Yes, Wendy said, without much detail. Does Wendy employ more women than the industry average or have more women in executive-type positions? Is the average pay for women in Hollywood rising fast or are women winning more awards?

Wendy refused to name the greatest actress she has worked with besides Meryl Streep. That's called not wanting to offend anyone, but it's also curious that in a podcast called How She Does It, only one actress can be singled out.

There was a curious conversation about comments from men. Karen relayed that she once heard a male say, "Listen, let me tell ya what women want." Karen said it was "so ridiculous and not shocking."

Wendy said a man once was challenging her about her own experience of marketing to women. She said she was thinking, but didn't say, "Do you know who you're talking to."

OK, let's assume that Karen and Wendy heard these comments from a couple of cretins. Is it wrong, in general, for a male to offer an opinion on something that might appeal to women? If he's a jerk about it, yes, totally, we get why that's wrong. But if his job is marketing movies or TV productions and he has experience with steep divides among gender or other factors, isn't that knowledge useful on some level? Don't some males make women's clothing, and vice versa? Would it be just as "ridiculous" for a woman to say, "I think such and such idea might appeal to male customers"?

Wendy described her 2 best investments as a used car and a bathroom mirror at an L.A. gallery. Wendy said the worst investment she ever made was not a movie project that fizzled, but her son's car.

Frank brings up yet another new name for stock market leaders

In what's becoming a monthly parlor game of terminology, guest host Frank Holland sought to redefine on Friday's (3/1) Halftime Report actually what's been leading the market.

It happened after Steve Weiss said, "This is just not normal to have the market going up every day on a relatively narrow move." Weiss claimed "there are other things that are working."

Frank said, "Year to date, the S&P gains, 57% coming from the Fantastic Four, 32% coming from Nvidia alone."

Weiss protested, "It depends how you parse the data (pronounced DAY-ta)."

Jim Lebenthal said there are "good deals" (snicker) outside of tech.

Weiss said he did "shave a little bit of META."

Bryn says recent returns don’t make a bubble, it takes 100% over 3 years

Guest host Frank Holland on Friday's (3/1) Halftime Report read part of an optimistic note by Citi's Dirk Willer that says the "bubble is not (yet) overly large."

Frank said the note was "almost so bullish, it's almost contrary at this point."

Bryn said "bubble territory" is historically, at least in 1987, 1998 and 2021, accompanied by rolling 3-year returns around 100%. "Right now, the 3-year average annual return for the S&P is 10%, so 30% cumulative, so we're not even remote- remotely close to those time periods."

Bryn said for long-term investing, "I still love the Q's."

Frank even quoted Mike Wilson (we thought he had a new job) suggesting large caps outperforming small caps.

Frank also said Torsten Slok predicts no rate cuts in 2024. Jim Lebenthal touted Torsten as "must reading" daily, but Jim thinks the Fed will cut.

Weiss thinks people buy options because they’re too cheap to buy 4-digit stocks

On Friday's (3/1) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss said NVDA was up Friday because of DELL, and that DELL was up before earnings because of NVDA, which he calls a "positive ping-pong effect" and a "feeding frenzy."

But he still thinks "momentum's there."

Weiss took issue with guest host Frank Holland saying DELL had "a really good quarter." Weiss said they only "came in line on revenue and they lowered guidance for the first quarter next year." So he wondered how it was increasing market cap by a third on that report.

Bryn Talkington, on the other hand, called DELL "very underowned."

Bryn said "the call-buying in this market right now is very frenzied and very high."

Moments later, Weiss stated, "Yes, options are driving a lot of 'em, but you know why people are buying options? Because they don't wanna buy a thousand-dollar stock. They, they still don't get the math, that if you put a thousand dollars into a thousand-dollar stock, you get the same repur- returns if you buy 10 shares of a hundred-dollar stock. So until the people start getting smarter on that, you know, they'll keep driving options markets."

Weiss said he made a good sale in VRT, "and then what happened — Nvidia reported. ... It's incestuous what's going on."

Meanwhile, Weiss said of NYCB, "we're gonna see more of these problems." Weiss would avoid regional banks; so would Bryn, who thinks they'll be in the "penalty box" for not just this year, but a few years.

Bryn isn't sure China can get out of its slump; she thinks it'll "take years."

Jim Lebenthal said he's bullish on energy but noted natural gas is in a "breathtaking" bear market.

Weiss said he's going to keep "playing momentum" in bitcoin despite the fact he doesn't see "any utility whatsoever."

Phil LeBeau reports that BYD appears to be a popular car in Chile

Karen Finerman, who a week ago celebrated a birthday and is now creeping up into the higher end of a 3-handle, on Thursday's (2/29) Fast Money said of NYCB's latest news/myriad issues, "This can't be good for so many reasons."

In the category of #zerocreditforasoftlanding, Grandpa Guy Adami, who blames the Federal Reserve for EVERYTHING (including the San Francisco 49ers'/Christian McCaffrey's inability to achieve a first down from the Chiefs' 35 that would've virtually sealed the game), was first citing Stevie Ray Vaughan, then said of NYCB, "They're not gonna get rescued. ... The unintended consequences of zero interest rates for a long period of time, it's made places like this extraordinarily lazy, and they don't need any internal controls because there's nothing to control. So this is a flaw I think of all this central bank sort of largess. And I don't think- this might be the first. It's not gonna be the last."

(Sure. They were dying to lower rates to ZIRP and laughing in their meetings about how nothing bad was going to happen many years later.)

Karen responded, "I take a little bit of issue with that. I think this is idiosyncratic to them ... I don't think, uh, that this will be a contagion. I think it will be contained."

Near the end of the show, Guy Adami repeated his corporate-lazy-ZIRP theory but actually stated it was "for the last time." So maybe we won't have to hear it anymore.

In a developing situation that hasn't gotten much attention, CBNC's Phil LeBeau reported from Santiago, Chile, and pointed out how China has ramped up car exports and how they're entering certain foreign markets and how much cheaper BYD cars are than Toyota and Ford and GM for similar models — and he also got a couple actual Chilean buyers on camera saying they like the Chinese cars. (Neither of those shoppers declared that GM stock is DIRT. CHEAP.)

On Closing Bell, Judge asked Aswath Damodaran about Ray Dalio's comment about stocks not looking "bubbly." As for the term "bubble," Aswath said, "I've always been uncomfortable with that word because it suggests that the people who are buying stocks are shallow and that the people making these statements are deep thinkers."

‘Great tape’ — sounds like panelists and Judge are taking a victory lap for the year

As February 2024 concluded, Judge opened Thursday's (2/29) Halftime Report saying the "bear case was dealt a blow" this month.

Josh Brown noted the month's gains and said, "Probablistically (sic), it does augur well, uh, for the remainder of the year."

Judge stated, "Let's call this the month that the rally broadened."

Perhaps putting the brakes on such sentiment, Kari Firestone offered, "You still have 4 stocks accounting for half of the market gain so far this year." She said those are NVDA, AMZN, MSFT and META.

But Josh said "the XLI has the highest RSI in the entire stock market." Brown said if the industrials are the strongest stocks and financials are 3rd, "that's a great tape."

Judge noted people expressing concerns about rising credit card delinquencies; "I keep hearing that bear case, made yesterday." Josh said delinquencies "were ridiculously low for 3 years" and they've only ticked higher "to a normal level."

Kari said CRM did hit the numbers but the guidance "was not quite as strong on the revenue side as people wanted," and when have you ever heard that after an earnings report.

Josh said that in the 2nd half of the year, companies are going to be talking about "ROI from AI."

Bill Baruch called in to say he initiated a CRM position in the morning. He said Marc Benioff sounded "extremely excited about things" talking to Jim Cramer. Bill thinks CRM "could really start to run" if it breaks out past its old high.

Bill also said he bought more AMD and NVDA and WDC, making a "very very tactical" move.

Stephanie Link, who owned SNOW going into Wednesday's print and who wasn't on Thursday's show but beamed in remotely, claimed "I only bought a small position ... I will be adding to it when I can."

Invoking one of Joe Terranova's longtime favorite terms (Joe wasn't on Thursday's show; he was booked for Closing Bell), Stephanie said "the company's in the penalty box at this point in time (sic last 5 words redundant)" and might be there for a couple of quarters.

Judge said Brad Gerstner sounds "a little frustrated" by the SNOW quarter. Judge said his interpretation of Brad's frustration is that "he thinks it's too conservative."

Josh said he thinks SNOW was having an "overdone selloff" but he's not "racing" to buy it.

We thought Judge had probably forgotten by now, but on Thursday, he brought up panelists' contrarian picks from the beginning of the year, all of which are having a good month. Josh Brown made a joke (we think) about "my brilliance knows no bounds" and attributed the KWEB's gains to stocks that had been "completely washed out" entering the year. Kari Firestone said she thinks KMX has a "long way to go" as automotive inventories have improved. Shannon Saccocia had picked commodities, which are never really much of a contrarian trade.

If Judge didn’t spend the first 19 minutes talking about no-news AAPL, then yes, the broadening would get more respect

Joe Terranova opened Wednesday's (2/28) Halftime Report saying AAPL hasn't laid out a plan yet for AI; that's what we need to hear at the WWDC (which is only 4 months away).

Judge said that sounds like AAPL will be "dead money until the summer."

"June isn't that long from here," offered Kari Firestone.

Steve Weiss called AAPL a "tired stock." He added, "I do think the multiple compresses."

Addressing Joe's point, Weiss said we still don't know the "business use case" for AI in the iPhone.

Steve Kovach at Englewood Cliffs rattled off a list of AAPL headwinds, including the "huge fight (snicker) going on between AAPL and its developer base."

But Kovach said "every time you take a photo with your iPhone, there is AI happening." Joe said he agrees with "all" of what Steve said, but AAPL still has to "communicate some form of an AI strategy" in June.

On GOOGL, Judge said Brad Gerstner is wondering whether Sundar is "the guy to lead this company in the next frontier." (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Kari Firestone conceded that GOOGL "botched" Gemini AI but thinks they can recover. Steve Weiss said the AI rollout was a "complete bust." But he thinks it's only a "temporary setback" that GOOGL can fix because it's got enough money to throw at problems.

After that megacap tech go-round, Judge wondered if the broadening of the market in the last month hasn't gotten the "respect" it deserves. (That could've been a chance for Joe to jump in with is underweight-Mag 7 positioning, but it didn't happen.) Steve Weiss said the divergence had already been narrowing until NVDA's report.

Kari Firestone said UNH may have government headwinds for another year.

Joe said CRM is trying to get through its November 2021 high of 311; if it has a bad earnings report, we'd have a "nasty setup" of a double top looming over the stock.

Weiss started talking up how great bitcoin has been doing recently — indeed, a great call, although this page isn't recommending anyone buy it (that's Anthony Scaramucci's job) — then got cut off by breaking news of Mitch McConnell. That brought a rare Halftime hit from CNBC's Emily Wilkins, who noted Mitch will serve out the rest of his term.

Joe's Final Trade was, if you're long Alphabet (this writer is long GOOGL), "only if you are long," to buy some puts.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman suggested Alphabet is "ripe for an activist." Karen said "first of all, it's cheap," with a "below 20" multiple, then mentioned "multiple missteps" with the "terrible" AI rollout. Karen suggested "somebody like a Bill Ackman" might be interested.

Karen actually said with a straight face that Ruth Porat, who 1) was not an activist investor but new hire and 2) was paid gobs of money to run Alphabet's quarterly conference calls that Larry and Sergey wanted nothing to do with, "really shook things up."

Josh says Rob is ‘absolutely backwards’ on megacap tech expectations

It turns out that Joe Terranova's newfound underweight-Mag 7 positioning apparently has a backer in Josh Brown.

Judge asked Rob Sechan early in Tuesday's (2/27) Halftime Report if the S&P can get to 5,300 "without relying on, on Big Tech to take you there."

Rob said that "you need tech, and it's gonna continue to have that momentum." Rob said we won't see a "massive broadening out," but something selective.

Josh stated, "I'm on the complete opposite side unfortunately as my pal Rob Sechan. I think he has this absolutely backwards. I want to be in anything but megacap tech at this current (sic redundant) moment. Uh, those stocks are not leading, and as they bleed market cap, which we watched Alphabet bleed market cap this week, the money is going elsewhere ... everywhere else."

Josh then rattled off a list of classic non-tech names that are at or near all-time highs.

"Josh we're saying the same thing though," Rob protested. "You're naming selective stocks in other sectors that are outperforming. You're not naming the entire sector."

"The biggest stocks. The biggest stocks," Brown said.

"No question. Because the biggest names have the less exposure to high cost of financing, they have the moats. Of course it's the same message," Rob insisted.

Brown suggested looking at AJG; "it looks like it's doing AI!"

Josh says chance of outperforming S&P 500 over 10 years is almost ‘nonexistent’

In a discussion about active vs. passive management (these come around about once a quarter) (viewer tip: all the panelists on the show practice active management) on Tuesday's (2/27) Halftime Report, Josh Brown said some managers will outperform but that knowing who those managers are for a 5-year period is basically impossible, and that if you look at the ones who are tops for the previous 5 years, they have an equal chance of being among the bottom for the next 5 years, so there's a "very slim chance that anyone can have performance that beats the S&P over 10 years. It almost is nonexistent."

Josh summarized the ZM and its "very narrow beat"; he said growth was 3% but the market was expecting flat. Brown said "nobody wants to hear this," but "they are, right under everyone's noses, transforming into an enterprise business." Brown said he continues to like the setup and considers it "value tech" (snicker).

Jason Snipe bought CAT, which seems to be getting a lot of kudos lately.

Rob Sechan seems to think LLY may be getting extended; "one of our next moves is probably to trim the name."

Santoli's Midday Word came a few minutes later than usual. He said we haven't had a 3% pullback in the S&P in 4 months.

On Fast Money, back from vacation (and celebrating a birthday last week) (not a day over 42), Karen Finerman said M's moves are "all about the, um, the proxy fight. And I think that the bidder has to bump before the meeting." Karen is interested in Elliott building a stake in ETSY.

Jamie Dimon puts soft landing odds around 35-40% (as Judge is shut out of asking questions)

Jamie Dimon, interviewed by Leslie Picker in Miami at the top of Monday's (2/26) Halftime Report, said markets can "change their mind pretty quickly" but "confidence is up" and, at least in high yield, "spreads are getting close to historical lows," so for now, "so far so good."

Jamie said that some people have apparently put the odds of a "soft landing" at 70-80%, but "I give it half that." He said he's "kinda cautious about everything."

Leslie asked about commercial real estate. Jamie said the consumer market is "far bigger" than commercial, "so what happened in '07 or '08, this isn't that kind of thing."

On offices, "They're worth less because of interest rates," which Jamie said is "kind of a known thing," and while a recession would make it worse, if we don't have a recession, "I think most people will be able to muddle through this."

Jamie said the problems associated with SIVB and FRC and NYCB are "kinda idiosyncratic" and "very local."

Jamie called the Capital One-Discover deal "good for competition." But he added, "The debit network may have an unfair advantage versus us. Of course I have a problem with that. You know like, why should they be allowed to price debit different than we can price debit just because of a law that was passed."

After the 17-minute interview in which Judge didn't get any questions, Judge said, "I don't know if I'd go full-on ebullient for- for Jamie, but, I mean, his tone is pretty good."

Joe Terranova said Jamie "used the word 'confident,' uh multiple times; I think that's important."

Jim Lebenthal said it "may catch people by surprise," but financials have rallied this year, and YTD, the sector is "slightly ahead of the S&P 500." Jim thinks that outperformance "is gonna continue."

Jim said his enthusiasm for financials gets an "asterisk" because he's leaving out regional banks, not because he's "overly negative" but because commercial real estate can't be ignored.

Josh Brown bluntly stated, "Banks are terrible investments, almost always. They can make for good trades." But he said "JPMorgan is almost a thing apart from all of its peers." Josh pointed out how JPM (650%) has outperformed the S&P (476%) and especially the XLF (126%) since Jamie took over.

So Josh said, if you want to buy a money-center bank, "There's 1 stock to choose from."

Josh says Alphabet employees too busy using software to solve social and racial problems

On Monday's (2/26) Halftime Report, Judge got a stark statement from Josh Brown on the state of things at Alphabet.

Brown bluntly stated, "There's a problem at Alphabet. They did way too much hiring. They imported a virus. They've got people running around there, apparently at every level, who think it's their job to, uh, heal social injustices and try to uh fix problems in, in, socio-economic problems and racial issues and gender-equality issues. They think they're supposed to be like using software products to heal these- these wounds that in some cases are thousands of years been, been afflicting the human race."

Joe Terranova said people are questioning whether Alphabet can be a "reliable source" in the AI sector/field/universe (whatever it supposedly is). (This writer is long GOOGL.)

(Judge didn't ask Joe about his newfound underweight Mag 7 positioning (see below), which is fine, as it saved us a half-hour of transcribing commentary of people talking over each other.)

Jim Lebenthal said you can own Alphabet and add to it.

Right after the A Block, Judge asked Josh about buying MCD. "This is a trade," Brown said, adding he likes the "technical setup." Then he went on to say he's actually looking at "both a fundamental and a technical perspective," citing loyalty program user growth and commandeering more of the delivery business onto MCD's own apps.

Josh said MCD peaked around summer 2023 and has been consolidating since; he thinks it'll "punch through," and when that happens, there will probably be "not many sellers left."

Joe said MCD is a "very strong trade." Joe suggested Josh may be ordering "a Big Mac and Quarter-Pounder" that'll get delivered "relatively quickly." Josh cut in, "Salad."

Josh Brown made not only big pronouncements about Alphabet but also Berkshire Hathaway. Josh said it's arguably never been a better time to be a Berkshire shareholder; "it's trading like an AI stock," though he conceded there "wasn't really a lot new" in Warren Buffettt's letter, and "how many times can you write the same thing" anyway.

Jim Lebenthal said of Berkshire buying something, "The tone was definitely, Don't expect to see a big deal anytime soon."

In the CNBC News Update, CNBC's gorgeous Pippa Stevens said "grocery train (sic) Kroger."

The term ‘Magnificent 7’ only started appearing on this page 8 months ago

Before we get into Joe Terranova's head-scratching, mind-numbing parsing about what his CURRENT stock market outlook actually is and what really happened in the Super Bowl, we were inspired to do a little research (snicker) on this site.

The first time the term "Magnificent 7" (or "Mag 7") appeared on this page was June 23, 2023, when guest host Frank Holland told Jim Lebenthal, "A lot of people think this whole thing's a bubble."

Jim asked for a definition of "this thing." Frank suggested it's the "Magnificent 7."

On Friday's (2/23) Fast Money, Bonawyn Eison mentioned the "Mag 5 is it now, Mag 6?"

Judge admits Joe’s Closing Bell beef with Adam Parker, in which Joe suddenly claims the Mag 7 will underperform the market, left Judge ‘completely perplexed’

Judge on Friday's (2/23) Halftime Report didn't actually waste a whole lot of time before addressing the strange megacap tech protest that Joe Terranova made a day earlier to Adam Parker on Closing Bell.

(See below for our recap. We were so excited that Judge mentioned the Super Bowl during that conversation, we sorta buried the lede. Joe scoffed at Adam's advice to have "at least" 25% exposure to the Mag 7, arguing the Mag 7 really aren't that great except for 2 stocks (which Joe also seems to think are extended) and that it's only the "AI halo" that's driving the market. "I disagree that the Mag 7 are the focal point," Joe claimed.)

On Friday, Judge, told Joe, "You made the argument to me yesterday which I found, uh, admittedly confusing, uh, on Closing Bell, that you wouldn't advise our viewers to be market weight the megacap stocks. Those are, what 25-ish% of the S&P, that you would advise them to be underweight. That seems counter to every argument that you've made about where the market is and where you think it's going. So, if you can enlighten us, because you left me completely perplexed with, with that description, to be quite frank."

Joe responded, "What I said to you yesterday was that you can have an equal-weighted strategy and outperform. And, there's evidence to that, you can see so far year-to-date-"

"But now you're- OK, without talking your own book, for a minute, OK," Judge said, "... with all due respect, I want you, again- you've made the case that the megacaps are going to outperform, you did not see the broadening in the market necessarily happening, but then you're advising our viewers, well don't even be market weight the megacaps."

"Because there's concentration risk within the concentration itself," Joe said, explaining the market's "performance" since January 2022 has come from META and NVDA "and the semis."

"It has not- It has not come from Apple. It has not come from Alphabet. It has not come from Amazon. It has not come from Tesla. So when someone says 'you must own the megacaps at market-cap weight ... or more, understand 1 thing: The megatap (sic)- the megacaps in totality haven't done the heavy lifting for you," Joe pushed back.

Joe continued, "You used the Chiefs analogy. The Chiefs win the Super Bowl yesterday (sic) (meant that Judge mentioned yesterday the Chiefs had won the Super Bowl, not that the game was Thursday). You know why the Chiefs won the Super Bowl? Patrick Mahomes was the reason that the Chiefs won the Super Bowl in overtime. Nvidia is the Patrick Mahomes. If you take Patrick Mahomes off the field, the Chiefs aren't winning the Super Bowl."

"I don't agree with that," Steve Weiss tried to cut in, but Joe demanded, "Let me finish. Nvidia. Nvidia is the entire story of where the performance has been. And that's why I say you have concentration risk within the concentration itself."

Judge said, "It is not the whole story of the, the performance. ... If you look at the S&P's outperformance last year, it was because of all of the megacaps."

"You're picking a period of time," Joe said, embarking on some retro trading. "What about 2022 Scott?"

"All the megacaps were down," Judge said.

"We're picking a period of time. We're saying 2023 works for your narrative. Let's pull the lens back-" Joe said.

"What do you mean? I'm speaking of the narrative of the market- that the market's given me. The megacaps had an awful 2022. What did the S&P do in 2022. Had an awful year. The megacaps had a great 2023. What did the S&P do in 2023. It had a great year.

"Marry those 2-" Joe started to say.

"Since November 1st, OK, Microsoft's only up 21%. Is that so terrible? Since November 1st? It's underperformed Nvidia, it's underperformed some of the SMH stocks. So what? So what?" Judge said.

"So the S&P's up 20% since November 1st. What's Apple done since November 1st. It's up 5%. What's, what's Alphabet done," Joe said.

"You pick Apple out of a hat and say OK, it's the one ... that hasn't really worked that well," Judge said.

"You can't cherry pick it!" Joe said, even though that's exactly what Joe was doing. "Since November 1st you have 4 of the megacaps that are underperforming the S&P 500," and then Joe really got retro, stating, "I just don't wanna look at it from November 1st (which is what he was just doing). I wanna look at it from January 1st of 2022. I wanna encompass the entirety of the Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle. And if you do that, the S&P is up 6%. And 4 of the names have underperformed the S&P! So really all you have is extreme outperformance from Nvidia. En- Extreme outperformance from Meta catching up because it fell to $88 in November of 2022!"

OK, quick timeout to summarize this conversation ... Judge questioned Joe's advice that viewers be underweight the Mag 7. Judge said the Mag 7 has been guiding the market for a couple years. Joe's claiming the Mag 7, other than 2 stocks, isn't anything great anyway, and 1 of the 2 great stocks was simply playing catch-up from November 2022. Or in other words, you shouldn't buy them because they're lagging, but you should've bought META in December 2022.

Joe is suddenly down on the Mag 7 despite saying Jan. 8 that we don't have to "keep trying to pretend and play this game that the Mag 7 are not gonna matter in 2024," and on Jan. 10, Judge asked Joe, "What are you telling me, that 2024 is gonna be 2023 all over again?," and Joe conceded, "That's a big risk."

Stay tuned on Monday for a possible new outlook.

On the Super Bowl. Joe said "If you take Patrick Mahomes off the field, the Chiefs aren't winning the Super Bowl." Actually, they might've, if they had Matthew Stafford or Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow or C.J. Stroud or maybe even Josh Allen. Joe ignored that the Chiefs have a legendary TE, great DT and a great secondary. Joe also ignored that the 49ers easily could've won the game by simply achieving a few first downs from the Chiefs' 40-yard line. Neither Judge nor Joe speculated if the Chiefs would suddenly have given up a score at that point with 2 minutes left and whether Christian McCaffrey would've slow-walked a handoff 30 yards over 2 minutes into the end zone.

Jenny Harrington also accused Judge of making up a "narrative," stating, "You can pick whatever time frame you want to fit your narrative, but I think the right way to look at it is, step back, and look at 3 years. You know, look at 5 years."

"You can't look at that. You can't do that. You can't do that with AI stocks. Cannot. Cannot. Cannot," Judge insisted.

"I'll tell you why you can-" Jenny said, as she and Judge spoke over each other. "Because that's what a real investor timeframe is." (Yes, they really care in February 2024 what some stock did in July 2021.)

"That's the only way you can judge- that's the only way you can justify not being in them. The only way you can justify not being in the names and missing it. Is by saying, 'Well, you go back 5 years ...'" Judge countered.

"Most clients give you 3 years," Jenny insisted.

Judge said, "The makeup of this market changed dramatically, arguably for an immeasurable amount of time going forward, the day of the Microsoft announcement with OpenAI. That was a move-the-goal-post moment, for the kinds of stocks that you had to be in. Some didn't see it then and they were still willing to get in later ... that was a game-changing moment. Period. End of story."

Jenny suggested taking "today as your starting point." (But Joe wants to start from January 1st, 2022.)

Weiss said "we can have these philosophical discussions," but, trying to play both sides, claimed there are "lots of stocks" that are "under the surface" and performing well. However, Weiss said his "overriding consideration" is that "AI is generational. Like the steam engine. Like 5G (snicker)."

Nevertheless, "Right now, we don't even have a lot of the use cases defined for AI," Weiss conceded.

Joe throws in the towel on down-February prediction

Elsewhere on Friday's (2/23) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss bought NVDA, but he said it's not a big position, rather "it's about a third the size of META" (which Joe says is only up so high because it was down so far in 2022).

Weiss said, "The race for AI, it truly is, you know, it's going to be all we're going to be doing, forget about talking about it, for the next number of years."

Judge said Bespoke says, "The last time the Nasdaq 100 made a new all-time high on a day it gained 3-plus% was March of 2000. Gulp."

Jenny Harrington, who basically only wants to invest in stocks mentioned on "Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Week" (it was a fine show, but the technology world was a little different back then), said, "Ultimately, the Nasdaq's flat over the past 3 years."

Joe Terranova, who 3 times this month has predicted on the show that February would be a down month (both S&P and Nasdaq are over 5%), admitted, "I thought, I was obviously wrong on that assessment, I believed that February would be a month where you'd see corrective price action in the market. You're just not seeing it."

But Joe added, "I feel good about ... there are other names that are working right now, in particular in the large-cap space."

Joe joins Josh in supplying potential idea for Berkshire

After the A Block on Thursday's (2/23) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova made a healthy speculative point that followed a healthy speculative point a day earlier from Josh Brown.

Joe said, "Josh mentioned yesterday Warren Buffett and Amazon. To me, Deere is really a Warren Buffett stock. And if you continue to see Deere cheapen up like that, to me, that's the type of stock you see Berkshire come in and buy."

Indeed. That is sound reasoning and may well prove accurate. A day earlier (see below), Brown suggested AMZN might be the "secret stock" that Berkshire is buying, then later in the show said he didn't want people to "aggregate" "blog" headlines about this comment.

We don't know — and it's clear from the programs that the panelists don't know — whether Berkshire is buying or will buy either DE or AMZN.

But it's fair game to think about.

Judge noted Kevin Simpson trimmed DE and Steve Weiss bought it.

Kevin said earnings were "less impressive" than expected and that CAT, which he also owns, "is crushing it." Weiss said, "I have a good feel for Deere ... for me it's a trading stock."

Weiss congratulated Kevin for a "phenomenal call in CAT" and said it "p----d me off because I didn't take- buy it."

Judge brought in Dave Morehead and Renee Hanna, the managers of Baylor University's endowment, which is apparently beating the Ivy League. Morehead stated, "most endowments actually outsource the actual trading."

Weiss again made LDOS his Final Trade. Judge announced Jamie Dimon will be on the show Monday and said they're super excited.

Judge and Joe actually talk about the Super Bowl (though Judge sounds uncertain that Joe even watched the game) (and nobody speculated as to whether SF QB was told not to throw farther than 10 yards unless it’s out of bounds)

This page has been stating for weeks that Judge inexplicably went silent about pro football just as Super Bowl preparations were rounding into form, almost like it was a taboo subject.

On Thursday's (2/22) Closing Bell, lo and behold, Judge mentioned the Super Bowl.

Star guest Adam Parker told Judge that people need "at least" 25% exposure in the Mag 7. Joe Terranova, also seated at Post 9, somehow said, "I disagree that the Mag 7 are the focal point" (snicker).

Judge even countered, "Disagree that the Chiefs won the Super Bowl?" Joe never indicated he saw the game.

Joe insisted equal weight is up Thursday and the market is about the "AI halo."

Judge said that sounds like anything to do with AI is the place to be. Joe said it's actually "anything that's curating the AI." (We haven't heard anyone explain yet who's "curating" AI.)

Adam said he doesn't know what Joe is disagreeing with; "sounds like he agreed."

"I don't have a 25% weighting to the Mag 7!" Joe said.

"Personally you probably do," Judge said. "No I don't," Joe bristled.

Judge eventually asked Joe if viewers should be "underweight the Mag 7." Joe said "if they are active investors, they should not be carrying a 25% exposure, market weight to the Mag 7. If they are passive, yeah. Then they're going to. Automatically. They have to."

Adam concluded, "We know each other well so we can disagree with each other, it's fine. I disagree with that. All my clients are active investors. I mean, passive investors don't pay! So they're all active investors. And the advice I give them to beat the S&P long only is to be market weight that group for the reasons I articulated."

How much of a headline does Josh’s Berkshire ‘guess’ deserve?

A curious thing happened on Thursday's (2/22) Halftime Report, when Josh Brown made a provocative comment — a healthy, useful comment — then moments later, told people not to read very much into it.

It started when Judge asked Jim Lebenthal about buying AMZN. "It's not an expensive stock" (Zzzzzzz), Jim said, which is a lousy argument for buying AMZN by the way. Jim added that it's been "dead money for 3½ years."

Josh then suggested AMZN could be the "secret stock" that Berkshire has been accumulating.

First of all, we didn't know there was such a "secret stock."

Second, it's amateur hour here as always, but the guess here is that this company would not appeal so much to Warren Buffett. It's a different kind of leadership mindset than that of Tim Cook.

Anyway. Even though Josh and Jim both seem to like the stock, Josh took issue with Jim citing the valuation as some sort of all-clear for buying AMZN. Josh stressed that he's had a "fight" with Jim and Stephanie "for years and years" that traditional valuation measures may not reflect the "dominance" of a name like AMZN.

Jim protested that "sometimes you're right, sometimes Steph and I are right," and that AMZN has been a "dog" for 3½ years. Josh said that's "not because of valuation," actually clapping twice at Jim.

(Actually, Jim hasn't provided any proof that "sometimes Steph and I are right" about, presumably, valuation foreshadowing where a stock is going. We'd like Jim to provide some examples of how a P.E. ratio signaled in advance where a stock was going.)

Josh said PARA was "clearly a disaster" for BRKB/BRKA, but it's probably making as much money as ever on money markets and Treasurys. Josh noted Japan's strength and said Berkshire apparently "sort of saw that coming."

So then Judge asked Josh about his "guess" that maybe BRKA/BRKB is buying AMZN. "I've never even been to Omaha," Brown protested, adding, "Don't aggregate this into, into a new story on your blog, please."

Hmmmm ... on the one hand, we can understand someone on business TV offering speculation that they're not really sure about and being concerned that people will regard it as "investment advice" from someone cleared to offer such on TV.

On the other hand, if people on business television aren't speculating about market moves, then how is anyone different than Santoli?? (Who's on vacation this week, apparently.)

Had Brown not protested about "don't aggregate" into a "blog story," it probably would’ve ended up on this page with a headline saying something like "Josh suggests Berkshire might be buying AMZN."

But with his 2nd comment, Brown succeeded in changing the narrative, which is now, "Can you really believe the s--- that these guys say on the air."

We're also not quite sure what Brown means by "aggregate." That implies CNBC.com is going to post this thread of commentary as a separate story, and people might link to it. Who cares; drives more traffic to cnbc.com.

Stephanie Link said of AMZN, "I've made so much money on it."

Of course.

Did Joe apologize to that parking attendant for NOT telling him to back up the truck before NVDA’s earnings?

As far as the Stock of the Day, of course NVDA, Josh Brown opened Thursday's (2/22) Halftime stating, "If you could buy it last year, you could buy it right now. I'm not. But you could."

Bryn Talkington said the NVDA earnings call "was like a master class."

Jim Lebenthal said, "I don't think it's going lower from here, but I also think the major point that I would make is that you do have to own this."

Jim acknowledged that's a "controversial statement," but "all the oxygen in the room" is going to NVDA.

Then there was the usual banter about the word "cheap," as if stocks go up or down based on how "cheap" they supposedly are.

At the 10-minute mark, Judge said "This was a. Big. Deal." for the entire market.

Bryn said NVDA's success will "create little mini-bubbles."

Josh said someone was showing him that ANF has outperformed NVDA in the past year.

At the end of the show, Judge noted SMCI, a stock mentioned by Guy Adami on Fast Money the night before, was up 30% on Thursday alone. Josh said it's in that same kind of AI-moving group as ANET.

Fast Money panelist says NVDA reminds him of JDS Uniphase

Uh oh.

On Wednesday's (2/21) Fast Money, which spent considerable time tackling NVDA's earnings, guest host Tyler Mathisen asked the group, "Does this stock remind you of any other stock performance that you've seen in your career."

Danny Moses, sitting in with the day's panel, jumped in. "Yes, there was one stock: JDS Uniphase, uh back in '99-2000," said Danny.

Danny said that back in the day, people considered wrapping the world "a hundred times" with all the JDS fiber that was going to be used, and the TAM was "too big, it didn't work, the math didn't work." However, Danny added, "I don't think we're at that point yet here."

(This review was posted overnight Wednesday-Thursday.)

Grandpa Guy Adami, opining on SMCI and the AI space, stated, "I get it, it's a secular growth story, everybody loves it, everybody's gotten rich on the back of it. At a certain point though, certain valuations absolutely matter, as much as we like to think it's different this time ... it's probably not as different as people think."

Guy Adami later said, "I said Billy Joel has as many good songs as he has horrible songs. ... 'We Didn't Start the Fire' is a top-5 worst song, not Billy Joel, in the history of mankind. And Billy's a fan of the show, I'm sorry, but he knows it's lousy. Sorry."

Tyler said "I beg to differ" and claimed "lyrically, it's clever, man."

Joe apparently advised a parking attendant (who’s probably not long the stock) to unload NVDA

As Wednesday's (2/21) Halftime Crew offered last-minute thoughts on NVDA before the mega-important earnings, Jim Lebenthal predicted a "modest beat and raise" and advised buying the dip, if there is one, later this week.

Joe Terranova said that in the morning, he was dropping his car off in Lower Manhattan, and after walking away, "the parking attendant yelled at me, 'Hey Joe, what do you think Nvidia's gonna do?' And my response was, I think, if you're- if you're long the stock, it's time to sit on the sidelines and watch."

(We analyzed this advice for a bit. How does one really "sit on the sidelines" if one is long the stock?)

(If Joe just means "sit on the sidelines," as in, don't buy any more, why would he qualify it with "if you're long the stock"?)

Joe added, "If you need to be active, you're doing it in the options market," and advised having "discipline," if you're not long, to just say "I missed it."

Steve Weiss' home camera finally got rolling around the 11th minute; Weiss said NVDA is "annoying" to him because he didn't own it on the way up (a lot of people have felt that way) (this writer has no position in NVDA), and its earnings could affect his other holdings now. But Weiss has decided it won't do "anything" to stocks such as META and MSFT.

Weiss said if NVDA misses, "everything's going down," but he'd take advantage of the "great buying opportunity" in other names, but not in NVDA or PANW.

Bill Baruch trimmed NVDA ahead of the print; he said he sold 33% before ADM's earnings and 20% a day earlier, Tuesday. Maybe that was too soon.

Bill said if there's a big "unwind" in NVDA, he'd love to "reestablish a stronger position" in the 610-620 range.

On Judge's Closing Bell, Bryn Talkington said she's "not nervous at all" about NVDA earnings — and once again pounded home a powerful point about P.E. ratio "analysis."

Bryn said, "I've said this so many times, first of all, P.E. is a horrible, uh, metric to use, over like, 1-year periods ... tells you nothing, really. ... The E has gone up more than the P."

Joe finally brings up football, as he and Judge have been oblivious to the Super Bowl or anything since the Peacock game

Judge at the top of Wednesday's (2/21) Halftime Report 3 times said PANW earnings was a "fail."

Invoking a sporting analogy, Joe Terranova said, "If it was a football game, the score is 40-nothing, and they were a 10-point favorite going into the game."

"It was the guidance," Joe explained, adding a day ago he was "highly skeptical of the technicals."

Joe said he personally owns PANW around 242, while the JOET owns it at about "that same price level," and Joe said "personally, that would be my stop-loss because you never wanna trade, or turn a winning trade into a losing trade" (but of course, the index is stuck with it until the end of April).

The PANW earnings were an "absolute 40-to-nothing blowout," Joe reiterated.

"I would be a dip buyer," offered Anastasia Amoroso, at least in the cybersecurity space, not necessarily PANW.

Jim Lebenthal's take on PANW's outlook is that "Corporate IT budgets are finite."

‘Ted Pick is gonna be a great CEO’

Judge asked Jim Lebenthal on Wednesday's (2/21) Halftime Report why JPM has "outpaced" other financials, and "you gotta tell me more than Jamie Dimon."

Jim said, "Sit tight for a second," explaining the stock has "idiosyncratic merits" including Dimon and that it's best in the sector, but also that Jim is bullish on the financial sector because there's "all that infrastructure spending going on."

Judge said in the last 3 months, C has actually been outperforming JPM. Jim said Jane Fraser is finally getting credit, but a "turnaround like this" takes more than 1 quarter to confirm. (That seems accurate. Wasn't the stock about the same price a dozen years ago?)

Judge said GS has had a "nice move" and asked Steve Weiss about it. Weiss said "David" did a "mea culpa" and cut losses in bad initiatives, also "they had a great quarter" and there's optimism about the IPO market. Weiss said he doesn't know why MS isn't having the same performance because "Ted Pick is gonna be a great CEO."

Weiss evidently doesn’t mind short-term capital gains

Steve Weiss made an unusual revelation on Wednesday's 2/21 Halftime Report; sadly, Judge didn't follow up on it

Weiss sold VRT because he noticed volume was "tracking very high, unusually high" and driving the stock on down days. That comment didn't really register on our radar, fine.

This one did: Weiss said it was a "great, great trade for me for a short period of time."

That's curious, because Weiss will occasionally argue against selling anything because of the taxes (evidently any kind of taxes, long term, short term, etc.) that are incurred.

He evidently has no problem with paying a short-term gain on VRT.

Weiss said after the earnings reaction, he decided to liquidiate his "small position" because he would've been "really pissed (sic it's apparently OK to say that on CNBC) at myself if I ride this one down." (But then he wouldn't owe any tax.)

Meanwhile, Weiss is long AMZN and said the Jeff Bezos sale is "just a minor sale and means nothing."

Last bull call we could find for TDOC was Jon Najarian in his fateful, last appearance on the Halftime Report when Dom Chu guest hosted on Sept. 9, 2022.

Jim Lebenthal on Wednesday's (2/21) Halftime Report cited the "equal weight" S&P 500 being up 2.6% YTD, "so there is a broadening going on right now."

Joe Terranova plans to sell his personal holding of IBKR, which is also in the JOET, even though it has "red hot" momentum. Joe said that personally, he just wanted it to get over $100.

Joe said it's rare when an energy company such as FANG hits an all-time high. He said prior to the Endeavor acquisition, it was a "buyback story."

Joe shrugged that PSA, one of 3 REITs in the JOET, was having "more of a technical bounce" on Wednesday than anything else.

Judge said CE "missed," and Joe said it was feeling weakness in Europe and China, but Joe said it was having a "remarkable trading range" on Wednesday.

Joe said HST is near a 52-week high, and he expects a "strong earnings report." Jim said there's room for PCG to "eventually increase the dividend" and go higher. PCG actually has been a far more interesting trade for Jim over the last couple of years given the troubles of that entity; we wish he talked about that more than GM and CLF.

Joe said INTU "could go either (pronounced EYE-ther) way" on earnings but is "susceptible to the technology complex if in fact it weakens."

Anastasia Amoroso, who had a quiet show, said that even though there's a lot of negativity already in SEDG, she's "not seeing" an upside catalyst.

Steve Weiss said there's "no barriers to entry, no moat" for TDOC. He suggested the valuation with the stock price in the teens "may be too high."

Weiss made LDOS his Final Trade; he keeps recommending it as such despite not really talking about it during the rest of the programs. It's having a good month, though December-January wasn't terribly exciting.

Judge hasn’t said a word about pro football since the Peacock Playoff Game occurred

Judge on Tuesday's (2/20) Halftime Report wondered if people are getting "a little bit skittish" in NVDA. Joe Terranova said it has "nearly impossible expectations" and tough comps ahead.

Sarat Sethi suggested the NVDA earnings report is riding on the "total addressable market" (snicker). Sarat said "I'd be careful here" in the stock.

Josh Brown said a "negative outcome" for NVDA isn't necessarily a negative outcome for the rest of the market.

Josh explained the NYSE slogan of "S's over N's" or vice versa, meaning S&P and Nasdaq, and predicted this will be an "S's over N's" market into the spring.

Joe was doubling down or tripling down on his claim of "the month of (sic first 3 words redundant) February" being a "down month." Joe pointed out that market gains didn't stem from NVDA's report last November.

Joe said multiple expansion will have to come from small caps. Josh said 8% of S&P components are making 52-week highs, above the historic average of 6%.

Judge asked Joe about the JOET owning DFS. Joe said "I'm gonna be very candid and somewhat humble on this one," but "it was purely a momentum entry."

Outlasting the bastards (cont’d)

In what, despite Judge's return, proved a sleepy edition of Tuesday's (2/20) post-holiday Halftime Report, Sarat Sethi said he still likes DIS and called it a "value play" (snicker).

Judge said Evercore recommends taking profits and a victory lap in industrials. Joe Terranova said he's not ready to do that and that the JOET is 17% in industrials. Joe kept harping on UBER being an "industrial," which Judge downplayed. Joe also praised GWW.

Joe agreed with Judge that PANW earnings would be a "big moment." (They were. This review was posted overnight Tuesday/Wednesday.)

Judge asked Stephanie Link about FTNT. "I made a lot of money throughout COVID," Link said, for anyone who wondered.

Judge tried making a joke about Berkshire and the JOET's rebalancing, but Josh Brown was having none of it.

Josh said "it's been a long time" since he's owned ALB.

Joe says it’s ‘ridiculous’ to be parked in cash even though “the market is overdue for a technical correction’ (a/k/a Bill’s early move for Call of the Year)

Courtney Reagan guest hosted Friday's (2/16) Halftime with a scratchy voice; like a trooper, Court persevered and got stronger as the show went on.

Joe Terranova wasn't concerned about the inflation report but mentioned "growth" about 5 times and stated, "Overall, the disinflationary trend is still in place," and he praised the "really, really excellent" interview with Bostic in the previous hour.

Shannon Saccocia said there's a little "discomfort if you will" in that market money in recent weeks is "going back into the names that performed really well in 2023."

Bill Baruch said "I still think May is on the table," adding there's about a 33% chance of a cut then.

Courtney said Barclays is recommending "stay put" in cash. Joe called that advice "ridiculous" given earnings, growth, the Fed not being "adversarial" and the "disinflationary trend."

Joe said "if you're parked in cash ... what are you waiting for?" Even so, Joe stated, "The market is overdue for a technical correction."

In an early candidate for Call of the Year, Bill had said on Friday 2/9 that he had bought ARM, which closed that day at $115. On Monday it reached $148. Had he just unloaded then, it would be a great trade, but Bill said again Friday that he plans to hold 3-5 years, during which he thinks ARM could "4x."

Joe said, "I would not put fresh capital into Nvidia at this price."

Joe says the PANW move is ‘beyond extreme’

Bill Baruch on Friday's (2/16) Halftime Report announced he bought more TSLA, stating he thinks it "bottomed out" and held support levels; "the negativity here has really peaked."

Joe Terranova said he personally thought TSLA would "break down below 175," but the JOET added recently at 186, and so "non-discretionary Joe seems to be right."

Bill bought more BAC, saying that in the past week, as the 10-year yield rose, BAC actually traded "really well."

Joe said the JOET has been cutting its energy weighting; it was 12% but now it's 6%.

Guest host Courtney Reagan said BMO made TTD a "top pick." It's in the JOET; Joe said it was added last April at 64, which doesn't really have any bearing on where it's going now.

Joe said "momentum funds" are the catalyst for LLY.

Joe talked up one of his long-standing favorite names, "Palo Alto," saying cybersecurity is "mandatory" and it gets "necessary spending," but he trimmed CRWD and cautioned that PANW and CRWD are "technically overbought."

Bill said he thinks it's "very possible" that MSFT can get a "foothold" into cybersecurity. Joe said PANW is "30% above its 200-day moving average; that is beyond extreme."

Courtney actually did a Grade My Trade, a feature we thought had been allowed to lapse. Joe gave William "a hundred with some extra credit" for buying ANET after selling CSCO. Someone else wondered if they made a good trade buying UBER at 35. (That's how this feature works.)

Jeff Kilburg predicts
new highs next month

Jeff Kilburg, who hasn't been on CNBC's Halftime Report in years, was on The Exchange on Thursday (2/15) with guest host Sully and was chock-full of actionable trades.

Jeff said NVDA has to "back and fill," and he'd recommend putting NVDA money, as soon as Wednesday, into what he sees as the "huge opportunity" of TSLA.

Jeff also insisted we'll get "100 basis points" of rate cutting this year, so there's "more room to run" for stocks, and "we're gonna make new highs I think next month."

CNBC’s graphics crew forgot the period after ‘M’

Nowadays, you can't get through an A Block of the Halftime Report without hearing about NVDA, which is actually kind of cool (except that it also gets old).

Josh Brown opened Thursday's (2/15) episode saying "I actually think that we are seeing a topping out of the Nasdaq, at least short term."

Bryn Talkington said she added to RSP, which is the S&P equal weight (Joe Terranova's second-favorite term, after "rebalancing"), in December. Bryn said that when there's a divergence with the equal weight, they eventually come back, so "it's like a mean-reversion trade."

Pointing to 1995, Bryn said "we really like energy here," suggesting it does "very well" after the first rate cut; the RSPG was Bryn's Final Trade.

Bryn said regarding the CPI report that "the machines were tired, the algos were tired."

"I think Nvidia will be strong," predicted Jason Snipe, though he's "run out of superlatives."

Josh said that other than NVDA, none of the biggies in the Nasdaq 100 "are currently overbought statistically."

Bryn said in this market, she'd tap into the "call premium" in whichever individual names you can get it.

Leslie Picker said the latest filings show "hedge fund profit taking" in megacap tech in December. (It's 45 days old, but whatever.)

Josh talked about trimming NVDA so it doesn't overwhelm the portfolio, not as any sort of market call. Jason Snipe seconded the notion of "portfolio management." Josh said the problem is that when you do the "prudent thing" of portfolio management with the "biggest winners throughout history," every time you do it, "you feel like a clown." (More importantly, you make less money than you could've.)

Bryn seemed surprised that anyone would be compelled to sell NVDA; "it's Nvidia's world."

Josh asked Bryn if she's concerned that the NVDA bulls may be totally right about the growth but the stock may be "a little bit ahead of it." Bryn shrugged that TAM is just a "made-up number."

Bryn and Jason addressed AAPL, calling it a "mature company," and Bryn said that's fine but all the dollars now are flowing to AI.

Pippa Stevens talks about underwear

Guest host Frank Holland on Thursday's (2/15) Halftime Report noted SHAK, long a holding of Josh Brown, is having its best day in nearly 4 years.

Josh said he bought the stock in 2014. Apparently shrugging off the peaks and valleys in the name, Josh said that 20 years ago, when he was a "frustrated retail stockbroker," his dad sent him a pick-me-up card saying only "outlast the bastards," and that's what he's done in this stock, which was also his Final Trade.

Frank said Morgan Stanley is talking up BX in what it calls "the golden age of private credit." Jason Snipe, who just bought the name last week, said the company has a record $200 billion in "dry powder." Bryn Talkington called it a "really smart buy." Josh Brown touted CG.

Jason said you have to be "patient" with FDX.

Josh said he bought CRWD in November 2020, and given the rocky 2022 it had, it's an example of "outlasting the bastards." He wouldn't sell, but he wouldn't be a "fresh money buyer" either.

Frank brought up the XBI and noted Jason's "contrarian trade" for the year (we thought those had already been forgotten) was biotech. Jason likes the sector for this year. Brown said biotech's had an "incredibly poor stretch" for 5 years, which may be a good reason to take a look now.

Kate Rooney reported on institutions driving crypto's gains. Bryn said she has a "small amount of exposure" to the GBTC and she "wouldn't be surprised" if bitcoin were either $100,000 or $25,000. Bryn said bitcoin is like "digital gold" but for "other coins," Bryn said, "I would really like to see some use cases come to fruition."

Josh touted LYV and said "I'm not a seller."

Delivering CNBC's News Update, CNBC's ultracute Pippa Stevens said Target is launching a new value brand that will include "underwear that will cost under $10. Everyone, Frank, loves a bargain."

So much for ‘10% upside’

The latest person on the Halftime Report to couch a bad sale with a brag was Jenny Harrington — even though she didn't mention anything Wednesday (2/14) about selling.

Jenny, long UBER, said she bought the stock 2 years ago, and, "We're up 240% since we bought it." (This writer is long UBER.)

Congrats to Jenny. The thing is, back on Jan. 12, Jenny also gushed about buying UBER at $22 in 2022. The thing is, by Jan. 12, she said she'd already trimmed it 3 times, which she called "responsible."

And she predicted there's only "10% upside" in UBER through 2024. (It closed at $63.20 that day, so since she made that prediction, it's already up 25% in a month.)

Sarat Sethi on Jan. 9 said he trimmed UBER and on Feb. 5 also said, "I bought it when it was back in the low 20s," (sounds like it was a real popular buy back then) but he "took some money off at the beginning of this year" because it's "highly valued" (snicker).

On Jan. 2, both Joe Terranova and Steve Weiss opened the year speaking of trimming UBER. (Nice call.) (Don't want those outsized positions.) Joe on Jan. 22 even talked about why he "pared back" UBER at the end of 2023.

On Wednesday's (2/14) Fast Money, Karen Finerman observed of UBER, "Mathematically, it's not really in their favor to be out there buying back stock."

Um, S&P up 47 by the end of the day, so much for the white-hot momentum done

Joe Terranova opened Wednesday's (2/14) Halftime Report saying he thinks the "positive trend" of 2024 is "in place."

But, as of lunchtime at least, he was thinking Tuesday was "critically important" in snapping (snicker) the market's "white-hot momentum." (Maybe by 4 p.m., he wasn't so sure.)

While Joe spoke, someone with a hacking cough caught an open mike; it apparently was Steve Weiss.

Joe said he claimed "2 weeks ago" that he "thought February would be a down month" and that Judge didn't call him out on it while stocks were still going up (but now he can take a victory lap maybe).

"It does feel like leadership is rotating," Jim Lebenthal offered, though he "can't prove it."

Weiss said investors "clearly panicked yesterday," but the Fed just wants to "make sure" that inflation is going down, so they're "not going to cut until the 2nd half of the week (sic that would be a quickie)." Judge corrected to "2nd half of the year." Weiss said "sorry" and said it'll be 3 cuts, not "5 or 6."

"I don't see any type of bounce (snicker) here," said Weiss, who probably should've waited until the end of the day.

Joe said he was wrong in thinking about 6 cuts and that the Fed (which signaled 3) was right. "We validated the Federal Reserve's patience," Joe said, and it's not every day you hear that comment on CNBC.

Jim said "3 would be great" in terms of rate cuts.

Judge aired a clip of Jeffrey Gundlach a day earlier on Closing Bell saying the cut is "probably going to be June, if it happens at all." (Basically, if you can't catch Closing Bell, Judge will air the highlights the next day on Halftime.) Judge also aired a clip of Rich Saperstein on the same program defending the Mag 7, a view Weiss said he shares. Jim Lebenthal said "The Mag 7 is the Mag 5 right now," kicking out TSLA and AAPL.

Judge took the show right up to 1:00 p.m. this time

Steve Weiss on Wednesday's (2/14) Halftime Report said he sees "no use case" for bitcoin, but it trades on technicals and momentum and he thinks it'll "get past" the "prior highs in the 60s."

Joe Terranova said there was "clearly exuberance" in travel names such as ABNB, which Joe said was slipping Wednesday on a "little bit of a moderation in the growth rate."

Joe sold TWLO, after he "bought it December," above 75. Joe admitted that while he traded it well before the pandemic, he hasn't had the same success afterwards. But Tuesday, he decided he'd "had enough." Judge tried to prod Joe into maybe rethinking his sale, but Joe explained that his move is a "risk management element."

Joe said the CDNS news is just a "very small misstep" and he's "happy to own."

Joe said there are fundamentals supporting PLTR and it's an "AI story (snicker) as well."

Bernstein upgraded IBM with a 165 price target, which Jenny Harrington chuckled is about 20 bucks below where the stock is.

At the end of the show, Joe badgered Jim Lebenthal about Jim's enthusiasm for the casino space.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman wondered about Peltz and DIS, "Didn't he sell stock at 120 last year?"

If Selleck just got in shape, he could get movie roles instead of TV commercials

Karen Finerman on Tuesday's (2/13) Fast Money twice said the CPI is "one data (she pronounced it DAY-ta) point," and, after the big selloff noted, "We are where we were Tuesday."

Regarding the LYFT earnings report bungle that briefly sent shares surging, Karen said, "I think they'll be sued within an hour," though she doesn't see how anyone was "particularly disadvantaged."

Mel questioned "how are you harmed" by the LYFT trading action, maybe if you're short. Karen admitted "I don't know" and said maybe if you bought it on seeing those 500 basis points.

Judge somehow wrapped up Halftime at 12:57, leaving 3 minutes of commercials before Power Lunch

Judge ran Tuesday's (2/13) Halftime from Englewood Cliffs, where only Jim Lebenthal among the panelists was present.

Jim said CPI was "not a good piece of news" and twice called it a "bad data (he pronounced it DAY-ta) point" but he indicated some of the supposedly hot inflation is irrelevant, saying Fed cuts can't really control the cost of electric-car repairs.

"It doesn't throw me off track," Jim said.

Stephanie Link said "I"m not changing my thought of a soft landing at all."

Josh Brown said the impact of the CPI report on bulls "depends on why you were bullish" and suggested the bull camp looking for 7 rate cuts was "literally (sic) sniffing glue."

Judge told Rob Sechan that the market has been "primed" for a pullback. Rob said, "The morning's CPI print potentially puts the inflation side of the equation into question."

Rob said he thinks a correction would be "short and shallow," unless it's "like '22," in which case, "We're goin' down." Judge said in 2022, "The goal posts were in a completely different place."

Jim said he trimmed NVDA at 712, citing — as everyone on the show does — cost basis: "I'm up something like 60% in 6 months." Jim said he thinks it's reaching the point where it's "run out of buyers," but he reaffirmed his suggestion for people not in NVDA to take 1% positions.

Bill Baruch, via Skype, talked of trimming AAPL and AMZN; Bill said "it's prudent portfolio management" and these are still "really in our top 5."

Bill said the market could be entering a "leveling out trade that could last for the next couple months."

Steve Kovach reported on the WSJ survey of Copilot users: "Things that this product is supposed to do, it's not always doing it well."

Rob Sechan said he'll keep riding momentum in LLY. Rob said, "Trust me, it's not like we don't get S. H. I. T. (that's how he said it) for not owning Nvidia for our clients."

Berkshire Hathaway is ‘never’ going to have good enough scores for the JOET

It's not every day that you hear on Wall Street that Berkshire Hathaway is not quality enough to qualify for an ETF.

That's what happened on Monday's (2/12) Halftime Report as Judge asked Joe Terranova about the JOET moving out of the stock.

Joe said "the way the financial construction of the company is is that the return on equity and the debt to equity figures are never going to be strong enough" for the JOET.

"It's going to have a low score on return on equity," Joe explained.

"How did it get in there in the first place?" Judge wondered.

"Because you saw a dramatic acceleration in the momentum factor over the 3rd quarter of 2023- uh 2024 rather, 2023 rather, and that got us in almost on a rental basis for what proved to be a really good trade," Joe said, which didn't really answer the question. (So the return on equity is never good enough, unless it's going up for no reason.)

Karen: ‘The pandemic is way worse than ’07’ in terms of real estate impact

In a very thoughtful, reasonable — and stark — roundtable, Monday's (2/12) Fast Money crew offered a consensus outlook on commercial real estate.

Discussing NYCB and the sector, Dan Nathan stated, "I actually don't think the commercial real estate thing gets any better anytime soon."

Karen Finerman agreed. "The pandemic is way worse than '07," as far as impact on real estate, Karen said.

"There's a glut of supply," said Bonawyn Eison. "To me, there's no end in sight, unless we're going back comp- return to work is getting restored to 100% of what it once was."

‘It goes up every frickin’ day

On Monday's (2/12) Halftime Report, viewers expected to hear about the champs.

So Judge gave them Nvidia, not the Kansas City Chiefs.

Judge declared, "We're on rally watch, yet again."

Jim Lebenthal, who owns NVDA, said the tech move "makes me chuckle" and that NVDA goes up every day. But Judge and Jim noted the Russell is gaining, and Jim asserted that "it's got a lot more room to run," which is what Jim and all the "value" crowd have been asserting for 10 or 15 years.

Steve Weiss said, "You're right Scott, this is a momentum market, and I think the new poster child for momentum is ARM Holdings," adding there's "no reason" for the stock's gain on Monday.

Judge asked Joe if this rally can broaden out and stay that way. Joe curiously stated (in what sounded like one of those faulty math proofs where one assumes what he's trying to prove is true, or maybe, a Yogi-ism), "The fuel for it is the momentum itself, so, as long as that fuel is in place, then yes, Scott, it can broaden out over an extended period of time." (Which sounds like saying, When something's going up, if it keeps going up, then it can keep going up.)

Weiss questioned Jim's statement that MSFT is cooling off, wondering, "Where's the slowing." Weiss stated, "We've been hearing that value is back for the last decade. And it's not back."

In the 10th minute, Joe said "equally weighted" (ding-ding-ding).

Jim said he got into NVDA 6 months ago at 450. Judge said it seemed like a "FOMO" trade at the time. Jim said the only reason he hasn't started trimming is because "it goes up every frickin' day."

Jim said if you owned zero NVDA, think about buying a 1% position. Joe shook his head, "Not here," cautioning that NVDA has "supply chain dependency."

Judge said some people would take Jim's 1% advice as a "warning sign" of euphoria. Weiss admitted, "Every day I look at it and say, 'Why don't I own this,'" and he thinks you can "justify" the NVDA multiple, but he owns TSM because it has a "mid-teens multiple."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman, who's long NVDA, said she's "concerned" that there isn't any number that NVDA can put up that the market will like. Karen even likened the melt-up to Viacom-Archegos.

Judge, Joe oblivious to the fact there was a football game played the night before (Oh, it was on CBS, so it didn’t exist)

For those concerned about the dotcom era, Mike Santoli on Monday's (2/12) Halftime Report said people are throwing around the word/number/year "1999."

Santoli said now is not the same, even if the market gets "a little overheated" in the short term.

Steve Weiss made yet another trade in DE, selling it. (We'd forgotten he was still long.) Weiss explained, again (guess Judge didn't hear him the first day of it), why he made a trade in ADM (it had nothing to do with business but the corporate troubles).

Weiss added to his "still very small" NFLX position; he said "they are by far, by far, the leader."

Weiss made bitcoin his Final Trade.

It’ll be the Chiefs

In the lead-in to Friday's (2/9) Halftime Report, Sara Eisen told Carl Quintanilla, "Everyone knows I'm a Bengals fan, but my husband's a die-hard (49ers) fan."

That was significant because it's the only football to be heard during the Halftime hour, as Judge and Terranova remain frankly oblivious to the fact there's a football game this weekend (Earth to Judge ...).

And it's going to be won by the Kansas City Chiefs. The pride of CNBC voice Jim Birdsall. (This prediction was posted early morning Saturday, Feb. 10.)

We don't quite get how the 49ers are favored. (Well, actually we do, it's sort of the yearlong machinations of this process, but whatever.) Yes, the 49ers have more elite players than the Chiefs, and the 49ers can light up the scoreboard in bunches. And the Chiefs no longer have a wide-open offense and scored a remarkably low total for an AFC champion 2 weeks ago.

But the 49ers, unfortunately, are very good at losing championship games. They find ways to get tight. That's probably going to happen here. It happened to Philadelphia last year. The Chiefs coach used to fall under the same category, but since he found his QB, he generally wins championship games. So we're expecting a game similar to last year's Super Bowl.

Judge and Terranova may not want to acknowledge the game. OK. Whatever. No one on the show is going to try to stump the host by asking Who played in Super Bowl III, the Immaculate Reception game and the Hail Mary game. All people would like to hear are a few predictions. If we have to get those from Sara Eisen, fine. (By the way, CNBC's Contessa Brewer was peppering Brock Purdy with a question during media day (of course, it involved a gambling pun).) (Contessa on Friday's Fast Money showed clips of her interviewing several Super Bowl players about the Federal Reserve. Even though the screen text said "JUSTIN WATSON" as a Chiefs player mentioned Jay Powell, Mel had to ask Contessa which player was talking about Powell, and Contessa claimed it was "Christian," who Contessa said is "up maybe for MVP.")

Jason, Kevin have different recollections of a year ago at this time

Judge opened Friday's (2/9) Halftime Report saying Tom Lee is nudging his year-end target up to 5,500, and others are hiking too.

"I do think those targets will be met by year-end," said Jim Lebenthal, who pointed out how the S&P is up 5% YTD already and NVDA is up 45%.

Even so, Jim said he woke up Friday thinking, "My next move is to trim."

Bryn Talkington observed, "Nvidia has doubled 4 times in the past 5 years." Bryn said she sells calls on half of her NVDA position.

Bryn noted the big year so far of NVDA and META but said the "exuberance" problem is with those names linked to NVDA. "It does not make sense ... there's a ton of froth underneath," Bryn said. (Even so, another panelist is buying into the froth, see below.)

Judge noted how people keep talking about the big market run-up, but, "Being due for a correction doesn't mean anything."

Jason Snipe asserted, "We were having the same conversation last year, in Q1 of last year." Jason said "I think it can continue," but in the "later part of February, likely there will be a pullback."

To the contrary, Kevin Simpson said, "This doesn't feel the same as it did last year," when it seemed like "there were 7 names that were carrying the entire market."

Rather, backing Jim's curious point from earlier in the week that the market really is broadening, Simpson stated, "It feels like there's a whole lot more breadth this year." (Jim and Judge didn't get into the broadening issue on Friday.) (However, Santoli said during his portion of the program, "The market itself is not as narrow as is being portrayed in general," so score another one for Jim.)

Jim said that "Taking nothing away from the Mag 7" on buybacks, there is "even more fuel" for airlines, casinos, carmakers; basically GM gets a much bigger "yield return" on buybacks than AAPL does.

Jim noted, "When you take out the Mag 7, the average stock is trading at 16.4 times. That's not expensive."

As far as the rate-cut timetable, in the 15th minute, Bryn opened the Pandora's box of NYCB, saying "everyone thinks" it's "isolated," but there's $500 billion in commercial mortgage-backed loans coming due this year and next, so "not having a rate cut would definitely be a huge dampener on, on really specific sectors in the market."

Guy Adami on Fast Money stated, "The market is on autopilot right now."

Joe claims AFC and NFC championship game advertising was a tell about EXPE

Bill Baruch joined in remotely on Friday's (2/9) Halftime Report to explain his buy of ARM, which Judge questioned given that it's up 60% this week.

Bill explained that this stock and TSLA are much smaller in his portfolio than AMZN. But Bill said he sees "4 or 5x from here over the next 3 years" in ARM, and "I see myself adding if it does go lower." (Um, we wonder about that particular sentence.)

Judge wondered, if the market consolidates, wouldn't this stock be at "the top of the list." Bill said this stock is just "now on the list" for portfolio managers. Bill also contended we're not in the "middle innings" of AI, but "early innings." (Another Judge miss — he should've redirected Bill to use football terms, given that it's Super Bowl weekend (i.e., "1st quarter" and not "3rd quarter"), but the Halftime Report is actually doing baseball analogies in early February.)

Judge asked Kevin Simpson about buying MPC. "It's the hallmark of cash- of free cash flow for energy (Zzzzzz)," Simpson said.

Jason Snipe bought BX; he said "private equity is interesting here."

Jim Lebenthal was talking up CLF, asserting it will be "buying back a ton of shares."

Judge said Citi has downgraded ALB and dropped its price target from 175 to 120. "I think the call is really late," Bryn Talkington said, adding lithium has "fallen like a stone."

Judge brought in Joe Terranova remotely (in pandemic-era whiteboard room) to discuss the EXPE plunge. Joe said he's "not surprised" because of the ads during the AFC and NFC championship games. Joe said the JOET bought this name in October at 95, "so we have a little bit of a cushion" (note to readers: JOET's cost basis has nothing to do with where the stock is going) but can't get out until April rebalancing. Joe said if he wasn't in the name, he wouldn't buy it or short it, even though Joe seems to think "you could see further downside ahead."

Judge asked Bryn about RBLX's nice week. Bryn said to get over 50, it needs a "path to positive earnings."

Someone got really defensive discussing NYCB

Among those Market Possibilities That No One Talks About, we have Josh Brown's impressive commentary on Thursday's (2/8) Halftime Report.

Judge said that Citi is saying that "the biggest macro risk in the market is any disappointment whatsoever on the rate-cut timetable." Josh chuckled that he "completely" disagrees with Citi; "I think the risk is we overheat, and the Fed has to start hiking again."

Indeed. It seems, in the 5-ish interest rate era, virtually unfathomable that the Fed would resume hiking just to clear out the remaining cobwebs of a once-a-century supply chain fluke and stamp out Arthur Burns for good.

But they might.

Josh pointed out that rate cuts aren't like some prescheduled benefit; "there's always trouble" that prompts them; "we don't do preemptive rate cuts, uh, in, in, in this country."

Meanwhile, Judge quoted UBS as seeing "further gains" in a potential "Goldilocks" scenario and said Wolfe seems to think, according to Judge, that "stocks are goin' up."

Liz Young said she questions how the economy can rev ahead, inflation can sink and rates can "aggressively" be cut.

"The math of that doesn't really work," Liz said.

"Really?" Judge questioned, stating the "whole sort of thing" has been based on a "soft landing."

Liz said if growth is stronger than expected, that would push inflation higher. Josh Brown questioned if productivity could "make up for the difference." Liz said "we could as long as the productivity doesn't cost a lot more" (which seems like a negation of the premise, or whatever they call it). (We did watch the movie "Oppenheimer" (twice) but we don't have any clue what those guys were talking about.)

Bill Baruch said, "I do expect them to go in May, and I expect the stock market to continue to move along."

One of Judge's regular guests, who gets to talk endlessly and tells viewers in every episode that earnings estimates and market multiples are too high and there's tons of other places to invest besides megacap tech which are never going to outperform again, was asked by Judge about owning NYCB. That person said "message boarders tried to create SVB 2.0," and she won't sell it at the "wrong price," such as Thursday's ($4.31 while she spoke).

Bill actually says Elon was ‘great’ at attending an earnings call

On Thursday's (2/8) Halftime Report, Bill Baruch spoke of buying TSLA and how he has a "starter position."

Bill then actually said Elon Musk "delivered a great earnings call in the sense of delivering the, the notes."

Judge cut Bill off and noticed his "direct quote" of "delivered a great earnings call" and noted that Dan Ives "said it was exactly the opposite."

Bill said he used the "wrong name" but that "from a fiduciary standpoint, he delivered the earnings call. That's what I'm highlighting" (snicker).

Judge said, "What do you mean, he was on the call?" Bill said, "He was on the call, yes ... the bar is low."

Judge said David Einhorn is calling markets "fundamentally broken."

Weiss, like Jim, sees ‘broadening’

Well, whaddaya know — Jim Lebenthal's eyebrow-raising determination this week that the stock market is indeed broadening was actually seconded by none other than Steve Weiss on Wednesday's (2/7) Halftime Report.

Finally given a chance after a lengthy opening and reporting from home, Weiss actually told Judge, "I see broadening."

Weiss cited stocks he owns including VRT and GS. "It's not such a narrow advance," Weiss said.

Judge told Weiss that anyone can "cherry pick" certain names, but "the gains are dwarfed by comp services over the last month, which is up 12%. ... Utilities are negative, energy's negative, materials are negative. Health care staples, they're up 3%."

Kari Firestone said "the broader market works" once we begin to see "better earnings from different sectors."

Judge aired a clip of Aswath Damodaran from a day earlier on Closing Bell stating "all" of the Mag 7 "look overpriced," but, "I think Nvidia stands out as particularly overpriced."

Aswath said for the others, he can get close to their valuations, but for NVDA, he "can't even get close."

That's all well and good, but even Weiss said moments later that "the professor" still owns NVDA and there's the issue of whether someone would sell "and pay taxes," or "ride out" what could be merely momentary overvaluation.

Marko Kolanovic actually says today’s market in some ways is worse than the dotcom era

Looking for skeptics as always, Judge on Wednesday's (2/7) Halftime Report actually kept a straight face while noting that Marko Kolanovic said in a note: "Market concentration continues to flash a warning sign as we are near the highs of the Dotcom era. ... The current period is in some ways worse than the Dotcom bubble."

Steve Weiss said "I think it's ridiculous" because the companies in the dotcom era "didn't make money" and were "purely up on air," and that while Kolanovic can "cherry pick" certain stats, the fundamentals during dotcom don't compare to today, and in a recession, people want these kinds of "fortress balance sheets."

Joe Terranova said it's only "human nature" to look at the post-October rally and decide it "needs to cool off."

At one point, Joe started talking about "understanding the intuitive observation (snicker)" of people opining on the Mag 7. Joe contended, "This dominance of angry algos ... doesn't care about that stuff" and that "momentum is dominating the market," up 11% YTD.

Brian Belski said he's owned NVDA for 5 years and he would sell the stock if he saw something "fundamentally changing."

We’re gonna be hearing ‘equal weight’ quite a bit for a while

Brian Belski started off Wednesday's (2/7) Halftime stating "the consternation is so much top of mind." Then he delved into the stat book.

Belski said "what we have found, going back to 1990, that the average performance of the S&P 500 following a concentration of these 10 stocks the year before, the average performance of the year following that, is positive 14.3%."

"What do you mean, hold on a second; what kind of history are you looking at?" Judge demanded. "It's not like this has always been the- been the case, these are a select group of stocks that are just coming off of a, a huge year."

"People love historical facts. I'm just giving you analysis," Belski said.

"I know, but I'm dumping on the historical facts because I don't think they're legit (sic really meant to say 'relevant')," Judge said.

"I'm not gonna be a reactive person on television, reacting to what happened yesterday or last year or last week. My analysis is based on long-term historical facts," Belski said. "We're just adding empirical evidence, Scott."

Judge protested that as for broadening, "For now, it doesn't seem to matter, obviously, if the S&P is nearing 5,000."

Joe Terranova said, "I run an equal-weighted strategy."

Kari Firestone said "what matters" is the earnings growth of the top companies.

Moments later, Judge sought to clarify his reaction to Belski's comments. "Let me be clear. Um, I am not dumping all over the historical references that you make. I'm simply suggesting, maybe I'm wrong: We've never had this level of concentration in these kinds of stocks all in the same space."

Belski actually told Judge, "You're a sports guy." Belski said to think of the market like baseball, the rules stay the same "but the players change."

Kari said, "We haven't trimmed any of our, our, our big winners," though, "No one should have a problem with a profit."

Karen says she should’ve realized this was going to be a great DIS quarter

Brian Belski on Wednesday's (2/7) Halftime Report mentioned some recent buys, one of which was SNAP.

"We probably should've waited until after the earnings," Belski said. Even so, "At the end of the day, we like this name longer term," Belski said.

Josh Brown, who recently had been trumpeting SNAP (at least until Tuesday), happened to be on Closing Bell later and told Judge he only had a "small position."

"Honestly, I said going in, 'I don't trust this thing,' I should've listened to my own instinct," Brown admitted.

Back on Halftime, Joe Terranova said he sold a third of his CRWD stake. Joe said it's an "intuitive observation" (snicker) that's "probably going to be wrong."

"Don't say that!" Kari Firestone said.

Joe said he believes in cybersecurity, but he's "significantly overweight" and just decided to trim the position a bit.

Steve Weiss said he bought more UBER, for the "momentum in fundamentals." (This writer is long UBER.) Joe said he agrees with Weiss and predicted "it goes well above $80." (Translation: The business outlook is seen as getting better, rather than "the P.E. ratio is such and such.")

Kari Firestone bought PAYC; the rationale appeared to be a strong economy. But Kari did mention "lowest P.E. since it IPO'd."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said that this figured to be a good quarter for DIS, given that this is the "last earnings call they have" before the proxy fight vote.

"I'm not insinuating that they massaged the numbers," Karen said, but there's a "sort of spin" they can put on things.

Karen said NVDA's earnings are "still like 2 weeks away," so there's "a lot of like good news already baked in."

Because if we hadn’t skyrocketed rates by 75 basis points several times, this would be the 1970s all over again

The really important subject in Tuesday's (2/6) Halftime Report (no, not Jim's crazy thesis that the market rally is broadening and has been broadening based on Monday and Wednesday of last week) surfaced at the very end of the program.

Judge spent the closing minutes with some refreshingly extended and thoughtful dialogue about Janet Yellen's comments on commercial real estate (it was typical Washington speak; this is concerning but oh by the way we're all over it) and Jay Powell's "60 Minutes" comments and whether banking problems really are contained. Most of the panelists simply touted how they own the big banks and not smaller banks.

Josh Brown affirmed that he's still in his NYCB trade, though he conceded the stock's had "just a bloodbath."

In case you didn’t realize that streaming, in general, is a massive bust ... (a/k/a do pro wrestling rights qualify as ‘sports’?)

CNBC's David Faber reported at the top of Tuesday's (2/6) 5 p.m. Fast Money on the new Disney-Fox-Warner Bros. streaming service (we don't know what else to call it) and said Fox apparently has been doing the same thing in Australia. David said this service figures to "appeal to a wide variety and breadth and depth of sports fans."

David said, "The entity will not be bidding on sports rights on its own."

"Seems pretty confusing," Missy Lee offered after Faber's report, questioning why each broadcaster would be bidding for sports rights that are going to be shared in this manner. David said those who are paying more for the broadcast rights will collect a greater share of the revenue from the service.

Karen Finerman was "a little bit confused" about the notion of ESPN putting its content on this service while remaining a stand-alone channel.

After David signed off, Mel said Karen's still "a little puzzled."

Rich Greenfield said he sees this as a "30- to 40-dollar product," or "quite expensive." Rich claimed that while the "focus" will be on sports, "all of the content" on those networks will be on this streamer.

Dan Nathan asked Rich if the new streaming collaboration/mess is going to be a "very confusing offering" and even "DOA." Rich said the "fragmentation of sports" across multiple providers/streamers "is a problem."

Jim claims the market’s experiencing ‘Confused Seas’ (but claims his thesis is somehow the one that’s playing out)

Whenever Judge and Jim Lebenthal tangle, this page keeps an open mind; we're not prejudging anything for that matter, we really don't know anything about anything.

But on Tuesday's (2/6) Halftime, Jim got manhandled defending a ridiculous broadening theory that no one else on the show would touch.

Jim said he listened to Monday's show (he wasn't a panelist that day) and it was a "really good show." Jim said he heard talk about the quality of megacap balance sheets, but "you can find those quality of balance sheets, those quality of cash flows, outside of megacap tech."

Then the head-scratcher: "And that's why I think the rally is broadening and has been broadening," Jim asserted.

"It hasn't been broadening. That's the whole point! Let's be clear: It has not. It has not," Judge cut in.

Jim pointed out how much "broadening" he saw each day in the past week, some days, yes, other days, no; "this is what happens in a regime change (snicker)."

Jim at one point said, "I'm sick and tired of talking about the Fed." Judge said, "You can't afford to be sick of the Fed because you need the Fed to actually cut so that your positioning-"

"I don't," Jim cut in.

"Yes you do. So that your positioning works," Judge continued.

Jim said he heard Judge's "exact" words Monday about "directionally right and tactically wrong." (Jim's correct, those are the exact words.)

Moments later, Judge mentioned to Josh Brown that Jim claimed earlier in the show that the market is already broadening out. "It's not," Brown bluntly stated.

Jim insisted that last week (that's correct, 1 whole week) was a "tale of 2 cities" (snicker).

"Who cares what a day or 2 make?" Judge asked, incredulously.

Jim insisted, based on "the trend from November 1st till today; it has broadened."

"No it hasn't!" Brown stressed.

Jim yet again insisted "here's the point I wanna make," which he already had numerous opportunities to make; he said it's "part opinion and it's part fact." Jim again pointed to Monday and Wednesday of last week; "this is what's called, in mariner's term, Confused Seas (snicker)."

"We're worried that we're gonna capsize," Judge stated.

Jim touted C; Judge called it an "idiosyncratic" story.

Judge suggested that Stephanie Link's purchase of SNOW is a sign of investors favoring "growth over value."

Stephanie said Jim is "spot on" about the October lows to the first week of January, but since the first week of January, "it absolutely has narrowed again."

That Snap Plus must not be as big of a hit as some have said

In his one lapse while conversing with Jim Lebenthal on Tuesday's (2/6) Halftime, Judge at one point told Jim that AAPL was "167, 169 not that long ago."

Jim wondered, "Was I on vacation?" Judge insisted "the chart was ugly" and it "wasn't that long ago." (Actually it was the end of October, for about 5 minutes, which Judge sort of acknowledged later).

Meanwhile, Judge noted that Josh Brown's 2024 "contrarian" pick of KWEB was taking off. Brown said he doesn't have inside knowledge, he relies on "press reports" about China like everyone else, but he thinks Xi has had enough and that Chinese assets are cheap and according to Jim Grant, "good things have a habit of happening to cheap assets."

Josh sold PYPL, which he recently has touted a few times (while acknowledging it has a lot of headwinds). "I don't trust these guys," Brown said.

Josh said SNAP is cutting 500 people, not "big layoffs," but he thinks the announcement may be a signal of a quarter that's not good. (That appeared to be true hours later.) (This review was posted overnight Tuesday-Wednesday.) Dan Nathan on Fast Money said of SNAP, "If these guys are doing this poorly, I can't imagine how badly Twitter's doing."

Josh said at the top of the show that he trimmed NVDA because it's up 40% YTD and there was "absolutely nothing new" in the recent upgrade.

Bertha Coombs had the line of the day during a CNBC News Update item on The Grateful Dead, stating, "'Bertha' is still my least favorite of their songs."

Judge, who's probably never actually heard "Bertha" before, chuckled.

Joe is early front-runner for Call of the Year (but hardly ‘everyone’ was criticizing him)

Shortly into Monday's (2/5) Halftime Report, Judge made this statement to his panel:

"A lot of investors learned this the hard way last year. Some of whom who (sic 'whom' then 'who') are on this program. Who are not here today, but whatever. Um, you can be directionally right and tactically wrong. You can call everything right. And you can be in the wrong stocks."

That prompted this sorta I-told-ya-so from Joe Terranova, who said, "I mentioned it the first week, and then everyone criticized me for mentioing (sic pronounced 'menching,' skipped syllable) it." (Not really true, unless Joe's talking about perhaps his X account.)

Joe said there should've been in early January "strong capital inflows to the laggard areas of the market," and we "didn't see that." Joe said people want megacaps because "the revenue growth is there."

Indeed. Joe made one of the show's few notable calls in January, that while most people expected a broadening out in 2024, it might well be another year, at least for a while, of Magnificent 7.

Judge pointed out that megacaps are dominating in earnings and revenue growth. Steve Weiss said megacap is the place of great balance sheets, and those institutional investors not in those stocks are asking why they're not; Weiss also said there's a younger class of investors who are "more tech-focused." (Gee ... wonder if that's because some of these "tech-focused" companies are ... printing gobs more money than stocks that peoples' grandparents bought in the '70s?)

But the market "does have to pause, including large-cap tech," Weiss suggested.

Joe said if megacap techs "pause" or "correct," then the "market's going down." Joe said megacap tech had its bear market in autumn 2022. Weiss said "this sounds like the conversation that we had most of last year."

What are the chances the next Fed move will be a hike?

Judge opened Monday's (2/5) Halftime Report by mentioning the Powell "60 Minutes" interview and said "really good news" may not be so good and the market will "have to figure out what's what."

Joe Terranova said the 10-year is trading at 4.17%. Joe said the "composition" of YTD performance is "troubling," with more than half the S&P being negative.

Joe said small caps are "absolutely abysmal."

Amy Raskin said, "This is an AI story-driven market." Amy said 2024 has "tough compares" for the megacaps unlike last year.

Sarat Sethi pointed out that people are keeping money in cash because they can get 5% "guaranteed."

Joe and Judge indicated the timing of a rate cut may not be a big deal, as Judge said "so what" about March and Joe said the Fed is "no longer adversarial."

Weiss buys ADM (not AMD)

Steve Weiss on Monday's (2/5) Halftime Report said he had been watching the trouble at ADM, including accounting issues in a "relatively small part of the business," and bought shares seeing an "opportunity" for a return to the old high of $80.

Joe Terranova said CAT's outperformance is "idiosyncratic" with the rest of industrials.

Amy Raskin said Jay Powell is "very happy with where the economy's going."

Weiss said he owns UBER because of "scarcity value" and the "CEO's phenomenal." (This writer is long UBER.)

That led to some interesting Trade School from Sarat Sethi, who owns UBER but affirmed he "took some money off at the beginning of this year" because it's "highly valued."

(Honestly, it seems like a lot of money managers follow Closet Indexing 101, sell your winners, keep your losers, and when selling your winners, simply putting the proceeds into some other stock that's been someone else's winner.)

You knew this was coming: Sarat said, "I bought it when it was back in the low 20s." (Editor's note: Panelists' cost basis have no impact on where a stock is going.) Sarat said, "I have to be prudent as a risk manager." (Translation: Hardly different than owning the SPY.)

Joe Terranova said UBER could "very easily" get to the 80s.

Closing Bell regular tells Judge, ‘Valuations don’t matter in the short term’

On Friday's Closing Bell, Cameron Dawson told Judge something kind of interesting:

"What we find in history is that valuations don't matter in the short term; they matter 2, 5 years out."

Of course, Judge didn't pursue this subject, even though it's by far the most interesting topic on the Halftime Report in 2024.

Numerous Halftime panelists, including Bryn Talkington, Joe Terranova, Liz Young and Josh Brown, have already in 2024 or late 2023 basically stated that P.E. ratio is a "terrible" (Liz's and Bryn's word) way of timing a stock decision.

This page agrees. But some panelists who are asked about any stock on the show always, like some kind of pet-store parrot, begin by stating the P.E. ratio and whether the stock is "cheap" or "too expensive" or "fairly valued." (Instead, of you know, actually opining, "I think this business' outlook is getting better" or "I think this business' outlook is getting worse," because that's apparently too difficult.)

The odd thing about Dawson's comment on Friday is that we don't get in the slightest how a 2-year-old or 5-year-old P.E. ratio could possibly matter; did the META P.E. ratio in February 2019 predict this week's move?

Grandpa Mike Wilson reassigned at Morgan Stanley

Judge reported rare breaking news on Friday's (2/2) Closing Bell, saying "a source confirms to me" that Mike Wilson is leaving Morgan Stanley's Investment Committee, according to an "internal memo."

Judge said Wilson will stay with the firm but work with "institutional clients," according to the memo.

Mike Santoli said Wilson has been "pretty conspicuous" while "somewhat (snicker) fighting the overall trend at the S&P 500 index level." Santoli said it's "very much too soon" to know whether this means "bears are capitulating."

Judge mentioned the "Fire & Ice" (snicker) note and others in which Wilson argued "the market shouldn't be trading where it is ... in fact, it hasn't happened," and Wilson had an "underestimation of what megacap would mean for the overall market," Judge stated.

Mike may protest, but this page does not think it's inaccurate to call him a "Permabear." Maybe not 100% of the time, but well over 50% in the last 6-7 years. But it doesn't seem like a technically correct term, so we opted for the more folksy label in the headline above. Our beef with Mike is that on basically every CNBC appearance, he's claiming — after issuing base case/best case/worst case ranges all the time with numbers big enough to drive trucks through — he's somehow right, no matter what the market is doing.

Tom Lee says 5,200 is ‘probably a little low’

For Friday's (2/2) Closing Bell, Judge managed to land Tom Lee, who said the stock market is "getting stronger" in 2024.

Lee contended, "Inflation I think is falling basically like a rock."

Lee said that given the strength of the market in January, "5,200's probably a little low" for a year-end forecast.

Karen laments having to make a ‘portfolio management’ decision because META surged, says GM eventually will be ‘sadly very behind’ in EV race

Friday's (2/2) Halftime Report included all sorts of Brag Trades about META.

Joe Terranova said the JOET picked up META at 240. Stephanie Link claimed, "I made 170%" before selling.

The star guest was Brad Gerstner; for the 3rd or 4th time, Judge rehashed Gerstner's letter to META about a year and a half ago. Brad said Friday he stressed AI in his META letter, and sure enough, the company "doubled down on AI."

Even so, Judge said when Brad wrote the letter to Zuck & Co., "He kinda gave you the Heisman for a moment."

(By the way, it seems like both Judge and Brad have given the Heisman to Brad’s initiative of The Board Challenge of a couple years ago, given that Brad hasn't even mentioned it in ages and didn't demand that companies he invested in take part in it.)

Joe and Stephanie also defended AAPL. "They have a China problem," Judge blurted.

Meanwhile, Jason Snipe said, "We remain extremely bullish on Amazon."

Much of the show (we should've anticipated this) involved a Q&A on every single stock affected by the JOET algorithm. The JOET sold BRK-B; Joe said "it" bought that stock in October at 341 and sold at 384. Joe said Berkshire will never score high on return on equity.

Joe also said "the strategy was dramatically overweight energy" and sold 8 of 16 names. (Tim Seymour tried talking up energy on Fast Money.)

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said the META gain is "delightful on the one hand, but then it's sort of, 'Oh shoot, now what do I do,' right," because it's gotten big enough to cause a "portfolio management issue." Karen added, "I will be selling upside calls," at least 1 quarter out and probably in the "550 range."

Karen said she gave up on GM too soon. Karen said the stock is "not crazy expensive now (P.E. ratio alert)," but "I come back to, the EV race, which I think will be on again at some point, and they're gonna be sadly very behind." Steve Grasso said he's "not a hater" of Elon Musk but "a lot of the investment community seems to hate him and want to take it out on his stock."

Karen said Wednesday that she’d be ‘surprised’ if the market’s drop on Wednesday didn’t continue Thursday; instead it was nearly erased in 1 day

In the opening topic of Thursday's (2/1) Halftime Report, Bryn Talkington said AAPL is at that point where, "Is there really that big of a difference between the 14 and the 15?"

Bryn predicts AAPL will keep having a "hangover" from the COVID "pull forward."

Steve Weiss asserted that "Apple was the poster child for just a way too, you know, bullish 2023. ... I think it's overvalued here."

Josh Brown noted that META is "actually more expensive than AAPL." But Josh said the tech giants are "not overbought," though META is close.

Josh credited Amazon's growth: "In 3 years, Amazon became the 3rd-largest, uh, advertising platform in the world." Citing NFLX, Brown said, "Actually, the subscribers that are on the ad tier are more profitable than the subscribers paying full price on the premium tier."

Bryn Talkington shrugged that over the last 2 years, AMZN has been "dead money."

Later in the day on Closing Bell, Joe Terranova said he wants to "hear the vision for AI" at AAPL. Joe asserted, "For the very first time, I don't think the analysts are afraid to downgrade AAPL anymore."

On Fast Money, which was heavily attuned to the latest Magnificent 7 earnings, Karen Finerman said she doesn't know why META would declare a small dividend other than to maybe qualify it for inclusion in certain indexes. Karen said she thinks she'll sell some calls against META.

Karen likes the ETSY announcement and bought some more of the stock. "I love the asset-light model that they have," Karen said.

Guy Adami said if INTC gets to "38-ish," then you "buy with both hands."

Josh buys in to a falling bank, as Jim and Kari did in March 2023

Steve Weiss on Thursday's (2/1) Halftime Report said Wednesday's market action was "really overdone," that apparently the prospect of later rate cuts moved the market, but Weiss said he's been in the camp of cuts happening in the 2nd half of the year for a long time already.

He said the selloff would be a "great buying opportunity, but for tonight," when there are several tech earnings reports. (Editor's note: Stocks on Thursday nearly recouped all the losses Wednesday.) (This review was posted overnight Thursday/Friday.)

Weiss said the "biggest surprise" is that there's 42% belief in a March rate cut. Weiss said the economy would have to take a "precipitous decline" by March for that to happen. Judge said UBS is "sticking with March," while Goldman has "moved to May."

Josh Brown bought NYCB on Wednesday's crash. Josh joked that "the No. 1 rule of picking stocks" is that you never, ever buy a stock based on Long Island. Judge said "It's your home, for those who don't know," while Josh said "I can say that. You can't say that," noting Judge lives in "Jersey."

"It's a trade," Josh said of NYCB, stressing, "I don't know any more than anyone else does." But it sounds to him like they "got in way over their head" on Signature, they're not ready to be this size, and this is the quarter they admitted it.

Josh said the KRE has had "the worst 2-day stretch" since the March 2023 bank stress.

Weiss says China has an ‘unstable government’

Judge on Thursday's (2/1) Halftime Report played a clip of Jeffrey Gundlach touting the INDA a day ago. Steve Weiss owns it, he said "I bought it before Jeff came on with that."

Weiss said China is "antagonistic" to foreign companies and has an "unstable government." He added, "As rates come down, emerging markets do better."

Josh said "Weiss is gonna make some money here" but questioned why Steve didn't buy the EPI. (Honestly, we don't doubt that India may well be a promising trade, but piling in to the INDA, dunno, just seems Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.)

Judge rattled off Jefferies' "hidden in plain sight" (snicker) top picks for 2024, including AMGN, BA, CAT, ULTA, MLM, MCD, MDLZ.

Sarat Sethi is long MLM and backed the name. Josh shrugged of the group that "they don't seem hidden to me," and he's "never liked the idea" of stocks that have to bet on the global economy.

Bryn Talkington referred to DXCM and said she's looking at it and pronounced it twice "dexecom" (sic). Weiss said he's looked at DXCM but "there are so many glucose-monitoring devices out there."

Sarat said QCOM didn't give enough guidance. He said of HON, "You buy this one on a dip." He predicted MRK "will do well for the next couple years."

Sarat owns CVX and acknowledged it's been an "underperformer for a year," as Jason Snipe said a day ago.

Josh must’ve gotten Dan Dolev’s attention a few weeks ago (a/k/a at least Dan didn’t say the stocks are ‘hidden in plain sight’)

Judge on Thursday's (2/1) Halftime Report brought in Dan Dolev of Mizuho, who's got 3 "under-the-radar" (per screen text) stocks in AI, which are ACN, EPAM, GLOB.

Dan didn't just join remotely, he took a seat at Post 9. Dan said there's lots of AI hype, but "these guys do the work." Dolev pointed out that ACN's cloud business 10 years ago was $1 billion but $32 billion last year. He said his picks are "like an ETF on AI."

Dolev spoke while some fellow behind him at the NYSE played with a basketball. (That was for the IPO of AS, which made a lot of noise at the end of the Halftime Report, prompting Judge to chuckle.)

Steve Weiss reaffirmed that he's long VRT, which makes the cooling systems for data centers.

Dolev might've been appearing on the show because on the Jan. 16 Halftime Report, Josh credited Dolev as being "among the finest" of fintech analysts.

Back to CNBCfix home