CNBCfix - Fast Money Review

[CNBCfix Fast Money/Halftime Review Archive — January 2025]

Echoes of Rob

Judge decided to devote Friday's (1/31) Halftime Report to NVDA's "no good, very bad week" and said, "You can call it the Deep. Seek. Sink (snicker)."

Jim Lebenthal suggested the AI sector has "jitters."

Judge tried to ask Rob Sechan, who was remote, if "the goal posts have in fact moved this week" and what Rob's doing with NVDA. Rob said he's getting an "echo" of hearing himself talk and asked for Judge to come back later. Judge started to do that, then Rob said, "It's gone! It's gone!" Rob went on to say "we expected this volatility" and he's "underweight" NVDA but is looking for opportunities to buy. Rob bought more TSM.

A few moments later, Steve Weiss joined by phone and said he agreed with Rob on everything, including "his aversion to hearing him talk," one of Weiss' several great lines in January. Weiss bought the "panic selling" in NVDA, TSM and MSFT.

At the 10-minute mark, Judge invited Cramer over to the Post 9 set.

Jenny Harrington said the problem for WHR isn't tariffs, but "because the housing market hasn't recovered."

Rob owns DECK and said it's up 37% since he bought it. (Translation: He still made a good trade despite this ghastly selloff.) He said Friday's move is the result of "lofty expectations."

Jim's Final Trade was somehow "small caps" as a play on the "broadening (snicker) of the rally."

Gorjus CNBC D.C. reporter Megan Cassella owned the afternoon, deftly explaining across Closing Bell, Overtime and Fast Money the day's developments in the Tariff War.

Jim’s absolutely right about trimming stocks

On Thursday's (1/30) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal said he trimmed ORCL and made an awesome statement that this page totally agrees with.

Jim stated, “The weird thing about trimming is the day after you trim, you’re really not sure what you’re hoping for.”

Fantastic point. This page has decided, after years/decades of thinking about this, that after trimming, you probably still want the stock to go up. It's true that if it falls, you can buy back at a lower price the stock you sold. But if you're already still holding some of your original position, it's hard to get excited about buying more as it falls.

Jim said the trimming was “simple risk management.” (Jim also made a reference to himself as "he" (it wasn't that bad, long story) and got flagged by Josh Brown for "talking in the 3rd person again," the same joke Weiss made about Joe T. this week.)

Judge jabbed Jim for trimming NVDA. Jim protested, “It’s up like 3 times in 15 months … I’m amused by the pushback on it.” Jim explained that there’s a possibility that capex “starts to disappoint” in future years.

Judge noted Jim sold GM after a Trump tweet and wondered if Jim is bailing on stocks without knowing “more details.” Jim said “I love your question.” Judge said “I wish you didn’t; I like it better when you don’t.” Jim stated, “I don’t know anything with certainty about the future. Neither does anyone else.”

Kevin Simpson is rotating from FCX into AEM. Kevin wrote a covered call on AMGN at 295 while the stock’s at 283, “so we should be good there.”

Kevin bought TOST and said he’ll probably add to MDB.

Josh said IBM is “in the new sweet spot of the market, which is AI, but from an IT and services perspective.” He also touted IT (the company Gartner, not the generic corporate department) and CTSH and its “16 forward P.E.”

Jim said WYNN is “far more than Macau” but acknowledged that’s how it’s been judged for a couple of years. “I really think it’s just a matter of time” for the stock to move, Jim said.

Josh made the case for SBUX even at 109, including mentioning baristas writing names on cups with sharpies.

Liz Young Thomas had a quiet show.

Jim claims proof that valuation matters (at least sometimes)

Jim Lebenthal opened Thursday's (1/30) Halftime Report opining on the day's big Mag 7 setback.

“This is still Microsoft,” Jim declared, before uncorking this statement: “In the end valuation does matter; it’s just a question of when. It was simply too expensive in the mid-30s.”

Hmmm, OK ... Jim says "valuation does matter; it's just a question of when." So whenever a high-P.E. stock sells off, or a low-P.E. stock goes up, we can say "valuation does matter," even if it doesn't (TSLA, according to numerous panelists on the show) 99% of the other time?

OK.

Kevin Simpson said he’d be “looking to add to” MSFT on the pullback.

Josh Brown said of MSFT, “Forward revenue outlook guidance cuts are almost always negative in the short term; I don’t think I would be playing this stock for a quick bounce,” but long term, it’s “OK.”

Kevin said META is his top Mag 7 pick, and the spend may be a lot but it sounds like it’s “under control.”

Josh praised how "Zuck" ran the META call with a "cold open"; Josh said if you want to lead a Mag 7 company, “You have to be part of the entertainment too.” (At least he didn't say that he just KNEW it was a great buy in November 2022.)

Josh said, “I’m not excited about Apple’s prospects in Q1.”

Judge reported on updates on the HPE-JNPR deal that no one knew or cared about.

Everybody on the Halftime Report was sure that META was an awesome buy in November 2022 when everyone else was selling it

Very early on Wednesday's (1/29) Halftime Report, Kari Firestone brought up one of the show’s most tired refrains: "We are people who liked Meta back in November of 2022 when the world hated it."

Joe Terranova said he feels "confident" about META earnings.

Steve Weiss stated, "We still don't really know what Deepseek is or what it means for anybody."

Weiss again emphasized "I don't have a big position" in NVDA.

Jason Snipe said, "A lot of the news on Microsoft is obviously in the stock, right."

Jason touted NOW, which is "already monetizing their AI tools."

Kari said of Copilot, "It's not as if it's been a raging success."

Kari sparred with Weiss over how competition may or may not affect the software space (Kari defended CRM vs. "some no-name") as AI prices drop.

Joe said AMD is a "ski slope down."

Bill Baruch dialed in to say he bought AAPL, he "pulled the trigger" on Monday when it was positive while "the entire tech space was getting bludgeoned." Bill sold DELL; "it has not come through with price action for us."

Judge said Dan Loeb thinks the SHCO $9 private offer (Zzzzzzzzz) is a "sweetheart deal."

Weiss bought more VRT, calling the risk “way overstated.” He already sold BAH and trimmed LDOS. "It's chaos in Washington," Weiss said, suggesting the secretary of defense "may be one of the last people" anyone would consider to run a big corporate division.

Kari said she has owned BAH for a long time and that Pete Hegseth's background makes him "more likely not to do anything."

Joe said he's "bought the pullback personally" in DDOG, and he's a "little disappointed."

‘Netflix has basically changed the game’

Some people may think NFLX is the greatest thing since sliced bread, but even that kind of praise seems subdued compared with what Mike Ovitz was heaping on the streaming king on Tuesday's (1/28) Halftime Report. (This writer is long NFLX.)

"I think Netflix has basically changed the game," Ovitz said, multiple times actually in one way or another.

He praised Ted Sarandos & Co. for changing how the world binge-watches series, with complete seasons dropped on the same day.

On the other hand, he didn't say anything about NFLX changing the moviegoing experience, or actually watching a film in a theater.

Mike pointed out how, instead of the old ways in which content creators would produce a product, then get paid over time with residuals, nowadays the creators are getting paid up front. He asserted, "I don't think that we're gonna ever see it revert to the way it was." But he cautioned, "It is more expensive than ever to make content."

(That's curious, because it seems to us like streaming/film/TV content is coming out the ears, much of it not particularly great ... but if people want to spend gobs of money creating it, whatever.)

Mike said AI will be "helpful" in Hollywood, however, he said, "I don't see any soul in AI yet" or a means to "attract audiences," but, "What I do see is extraordinarily powerful ability to cut production costs."

Mike began his interview indicating that Judge may be big-timing some buddies. Ovitz told Judge, "you owe me" at least 1, maybe 2, returned phone calls.

Later in the show, Mark Cuban dialed in late to opine on the AI situation; we're not sure exactly what Mark's conclusions are, but he observed that companies aren't going public, at least, there aren't any "up-and-coming public companies."

Jim Lebenthal conceded that "on the fringe ... it got ridiculous." Judge scoffed, "No one ever says it's ridiculous when it's happening. It's after the fact, you're like, 'Oh, well, it was ridiculous.'"

Stephanie Link admitted she's averaging down in SLB, apparently in a big way. "I'm huge in SLB; I just keeping buying that thing every time it goes down. It's now a 6% position for me," Stephanie said.

Judge makes no mention of NFC Championship Game

This page (see below) made an awful prognostication last week about the NFC Championship Game.

Had it occurred to us that the team we were picking might surrender the most points ever scored in an NFL conference championship game, we certainly would've taken a pass.

At least here, that game wasn't emotional. For Judge, it probably was, as Judge has noted from time to time being a Washington football fan.

Hopefully Judge, like this page, has already long since hitched a ride on the Chiefs 3-peat bandwagon.

Judge says Joe got ‘lit up’ on social media for claiming ‘gameification’ of NVDA

The vast majority of Monday's (1/27) Halftime Report was about the NVDA selloff; apparently, the only panelist causing a stir was Joe Terranova.

Joe offered, "It is retail that owns these names" and "probably has utilized a little bit too much leverage in the gameification of Nvidia with these zero-dated options."

Joe advised, if you're long NVDA, "sell something today and hope the sale that you're making is a terrible sale." Judge wondered about selling with the stock already down big halfway through Monday's trading; "it's an act first, ask questions later" market. Joe said it's about "how do you reshape risk."

Later in the show, Judge told Joe, "You are getting lit up on social media, man." Joe said, "I'm trying to speak to people who I know have way too much leverage in this name."

Josh: Part of the NVDA trade was ‘speculators being unwound’

Josh Brown opened Monday's (1/27) Halftime Report saying of NVDA, there's a "component" of the selloff of people "very reasonably" recalculating expectations for AI, "but then I think there's an even bigger component, that's just speculators being unwound. This is the most overowned stock in the market."

Josh suggested Deepseek means "you're more likely to see an acceleration of AI everywhere, all over the economy."

"This is a little bit overdone," Josh said.

Josh said the Deepseek chatter is mostly on X, which is "loaded with hedge fund managers and asset managers who absolutely loathe the Mag 7. They've been waiting for this moment for 2 years."

Bryn Talkington said a lot of the stock market reaction is to the "6 million dollar number."

Steve Weiss reported, "Nvidia's not a large position for me."

Judge said, "It is for some."

Weiss said his isn't a large position because "necessity is the mother of invention (snicker)." Weiss said "if this is the future," then MSFT, GOOGL and META "should be up today," because their projected capex "has just come down meaningfully."

Judge said Dan Ives is calling Monday a "golden buying opportunity" with "minimal" threat.

CNBC's Dee Bosa impressively outlined the AI situation and noted, "This really does open up a new front."

Weiss said the reaction to TSM is "ridiculous," because if anything, it's going to get more orders.

The whole day was pretty much the same. Tom Lee told Judge on Closing Bell, "To me, it's an overreaction," and he'd look at it as an "opportunity." Tom said, "I'd be personally surprised if Nvidia became Betamax in the past week."

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso discussed the AI selloff and said "I made a purchase today ... I think that things got overdone." We think he was referring to NVDA, but maybe it was some other big tech name.

Meanwhile, back on Halftime, Josh Brown bought HD, "anticipating the breakout here."

Joe said homebuilders are "offering way too many incentives," and he'd rather be in HD.

In a bit of a warning about this year's market, Josh claimed that a Bloomberg "consensus" entering 2023 was a "hundred percent chance of a recession." Josh said entering 2025, it'll be "harder and harder" for companies to produce upside surprises.

Judge makes Jayden Daniels his Final Trade — this page agrees; Commanders to the Super Bowl

Judge is a Washington football fan, and there is a huge Washington football game coming up this weekend.

Late on Friday's (1/24) Halftime Report, Brandon Copeland joined the Post 9 set late to talk about the big money in college athletics and did a great job of assessing the situation. Judge pointed out that Carson Beck is getting $4 million to transfer to the University of Miami, while Brock Purdy is "still on his rookie contract; I don't even think he's making a million dollars a year."

On a really big football subject, Judge, who surely remembers taking a really deep breath as Theismann knocked the ball away from Kim Bokamper, asked Brandon for NFL picks this weekend. "I got Jayden Daniels, pullin' it off," Brandon said, also picking the Chiefs, who he said have a "Super Bowl routine."

This page couldn't agree more. We'll take Washington and Kansas City this weekend. Philadelphia is attempting to become what we believe would be the first NFL team since the 1982 Washington and Miami clubs (and that was a special situation) to win 3 home playoff games prior to the Super Bowl. Philadelphia may have the better roster and greater odds of winning, but we think this is Washington's turn.

Steve Grasso: ‘Bitcoin will probably double from here — in short order’

Judge announced at the start of Friday's (1/24) Halftime Report that Tom Lee is saying, "Stocks are goin' up for the right reason (snicker)," and Tom's got a 7,000 S&P target for mid-year, but curiously, only 6,600 by year-end.

Bryn Talkington noted Tom's year-end forecast is "about a 10% move." (So Tom, like all strategists, is simply making the standard yearly stock gain prediction.)

Regardless, Bryn said, "It looks like we're gonna continue to move higher."

Joe Terranova concurred, "The setting is a favorable one."

Jason Snipe said "there's a lot to like" and it's time to be "incrementally more bullish."

Despite all this, Grandpa Judge said the FT has a headline Friday saying "Stocks are most expensive compared to bonds since the dot-com era."

Judge told Bryn "there's been a fair amount of insider selling," and "according to Bloomberg," the insider buy-sell ratio is 0.22. Bryn said there was some of that insider selling at PLTR.

CNBC's graphics crew had the audacity to post purported forward multiples for AAPL (30.35) and MSFT (33.79) and NVDA (36.90) on the screen. If you want to believe them, feel free.

Jim Lebenthal added to ADBE but said he's "saving some dry powder" to possibly add more after earnings.

Joe said for those who don't believe "technicals could guide you towards" a stock, he said TWLO is "a classic example" that "yes it can."

Joe protested to Judge that XBI really has been a disappointment and stated, "The right trade in health care right now is medical devices." Jason touted SYK, stating, "elective surgeries are coming back online."

The day's most provocative comment came on Fast Money, when Steve Grasso stated that government approach to bitcoin has changed from an "enforcement outlook" to "regulatory," and "Bitcoin will probably double from here — in short order."

Judge, Halftime producers enlist an entire team of CNBCers to figure out what Donald Trump meant in his BAC comment

The biggest topic of Judge's fascination on Thursday's (1/23) Halftime Report was Donald Trump's comment to Brian Moynihan at Davos, "I hope you're going to open your banks to conservatives, because what you're doing is wrong."

Josh Brown noted Judge was addressing this subject "gingerly" and indicated such a comment by Donald Trump is "effective" politically in that it "keeps the conversation going," but he thinks it "probably" has no bearing on BAC earnings.

Judge brought in Steve Liesman to opine on what's going to happen with Grateful Dead reunions not only Brian Moynihan but Donald Trump's demand for lower interest rates; Steve didn't seem surprised that Donald Trump may criticize the Fed.

Later in the show, Leslie Picker explained that BAC's dropping of some customers "may not have anything to do with their political ideology" but the businesses they're in.

Late in the show, Eamon Javers offered that the White House is expecting Brian Moynihan to "respond" — that's the term he used, but he really means "suck up" — to what Donald Trump said at Davos. Eamon reprised this report later on Fast Money. The Fast Money crew didn't seem to think that banks care in the slightest whether their customers are conservatives or liberals.

Josh doesn’t think Mag 7 will be up 50% in 2025

Leading off Thursday's (1/23) Halftime Report, Josh Brown advised, "Just be open-minded" about the markets regardless of Donald Trump.

Jenny Harrington pointed to year-to-date averages for S&P, Dow, Nasdaq and Russell and said, "It really is like everyone winning this year."

Josh and Jenny got into an argument over tech companies vs. industrials, as Josh asserted that industrials will never get the kind of gross margins that some tech companies get. Jenny concluded asking Brown, "Do you really think that Mag 7 will be up 50% in 2025." "No," Josh said. "There you go," Jenny said.

(And why would anyone invest in a stock that's NOT going to be up 50% in a year.)

Bill Baruch bought CAT, he said for "China exposure." Bill sold the QQQ. (This writer is long QQQ.)

Bill bought more IBIT and suggested $150,000 bitcoin is possible in a "few months."

Josh talked up HOOD and HD.

Joe advocates a NFLX stop that Weiss doesn’t seem to think is necessary

Wednesday's (1/22) Halftime Report took up the stock of the day: NFLX. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Invoking Pete Najarian-esque terminology, Joe Terranova said NFLX posted an "absolutely phenomenal quarter." Joe said Josh Brown had some "really excellent points" a day earlier on NFLX getting ahead of "churn" with its live sports and bigger spending.

Joe conceded he expressed his own concerns a day earlier about bullish sentiment in NFLX, but he said the big gain Wednesday to a "certain extent alleviates some of that concern."

Steve Weiss pointed out that the stock had sold off to around 830 in the last couple weeks, "a great opportunity to buy." Weiss suggested one of NFLX's strengths, aside from just more content in general, is that "they drop an entire season on 1 day."

Weiss also suggested "Netflix puts out more content than all the other, you know, meaningful streaming services combined."

Joe advised putting a stop at Tuesday's close, 869; "the stock should not go back below yesterday's close. Plain and simple." Joe said violating that number "invalidates" all the good news from the earnings report.

Weiss wondered "what period does it invalidate it," for a few weeks or months, "because the fundamentals are still there, and that's the difference in our trading strategies." Joe said he comes from a "futures background," and he learned "at a very, uh, young age" that you "have to utilize those price stops."

CNBC graphics crew evidently isn’t using AI to spell words

On Wednesday's (1/22) Halftime Report, Judge stumbled over prompter text in his intro, then mentioned Steve Weiss and cracked, "I saw that Weiss was on; I got a little tripped up for a minute." Weiss said, "People get flustered." Judge said, "I was hoping somehow he'd disappear before the welcome."

Joe Terranova admitted early, "You're reaching new highs today with bad breadth (sic he correctly said it with a 'd'). You're reaching new highs with a very narrow set of technology leading the way."

Weiss agreed with Judge's comment that "AI stocks" are where the money is. "That is where the puck is, where it's been and where it's going," Weiss said.

Joe said, "Current P.E. on Vertiv is 98." Weiss said, "Trailing." The screen graphic said it was 45.23 forward. (Believe any of those numbers, if you feel like it.)

Weiss said he didn't feel like he has to "chase the next, uh, shiny object" in the momentum charts; he questioned why he would do that when it would require him to sell, for example, META and "pay taxes on it."

Kevin Simpson joined remotely to say he bought more AAPL, and it sounds like Kevin is averaging down. "On Thursday, we picked up a few shares at 230. Yesterday, we bought a little bit more at 220," Kevin said.

Weiss uncorks one of the best punch lines of the year

On Wednesday's (1/22) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss impressively pounced on a potential funny by Joe Terranova.

Joe said that when RCL went into the JOET, "I said to myself ... cruise ships, how much strength can we actually see," but the revenue growth at RCL is "real."

Moments later, after discussing COST and valuation, Weiss said, "Joe, what did you say to yourself on this one, since you're talking in 3rd person." (Actually it wasn't technically 3rd person, but whatever.)

Weiss bought UBER, first making what sounded like a bear case regarding low restaurant margins and the undocumented drivers in the "labor pool." Then he said he bought it because "I don't expect them to miss another quarter."

Weiss also bought BAH. He said it peaked around 190 in November, "and then when DOGE came out," defense contractors faced pressure, but apparently that's a plus for contractors because at DOGE, "they don't wanna have to deal with unions when they want to get rid of people."

Joe said TRV has "stepped back from California" and isn't really into the high-net-worth homes.

Joe said he's been talking about IBKR "for literally the last 2 years on the show," and, "I don't understand why anyone ... would own any other ... brokerage name."

Weiss said UAL has "done a great job" and admitted his theory that pent-up flight demand post-COVID didn't "peter out" as Weiss anticipated (and proclaimed on the show about every other day in 2020 and 2021).

Weiss bought more UNH.

For his Final Trade, Joe recapped that he recommended APP last Wednesday "for a trade," at 336 with a recommended stop at $300. Joe explained, "You have to raise the stop to the entry price; there is no way that you should lose money on this trade." If you already bought it at 336, why not just sell it right now and then there's REALLY no way you lose money on it?

Grandpa Guy Adami opened Wednesday's (1/22) Fast Money saying "9 of the metrics that we talk about ... are in the 98th to 100th percentile of where they've been historically on the overbought side of things."

Karen says NFLX ‘worth’ the multiple; Guy says to look for $942

On Tuesday's (1/21) Fast Money, Guy Adami said of NFLX, "I don't think you chase it here." (This writer is long NFLX.) (This review was posted overnight Tuesday-Wednesday.)

Dan Nathan agreed that he didn't like the idea of chasing NFLX but suggested, "If inflation becomes an issue again, I think it's probably gonna be hard to continue to raise prices at this level."

Karen Finerman though said, "I actually think if inflation becomes an issue, they can raise prices more easily." Karen asserted that "there's so much to like here," and the stock may be expensive, but it's "worth it."

Tim Seymour actually said with a straight face, "It's gonna come back to, What's the multiple (snicker) you're paying for this company."

Guy said the previous NFLX all-time high was $942, which he thinks it will revisit at some point.

Rich Greenfield called it a "stunning" quarter for NFLX. "And I don't think anyone's gonna be complaining about the price increases," Rich said.

Earlier on Halftime, Joe Terranova said this is "a very interesting report tonight" from NFLX because it'll be the last quarter with subscriber numbers. Joe said NFLX will have to "resolve" the question of "retention" of people who watch the sports events. Judge suggested costs for acquiring sports could soar, but Josh Brown said those events reduce the "churn," and "churn is more expensive."

Josh conceded that "Netflix absolutely is gonna have to pay up" for sports, "but so what — the investment is worth it." Brian Belski called it "an absolute home run stock you need to own." Joe cautioned that sentiment toward NFLX is "very bullish."

Joe claims momentum is among top performing strategies in 2025

For the 2nd time in a week, Joe Terranova was taking a victory lap on his recent call about rates peaking.

Joe noted on Tuesday's (1/21) Halftime Report that just "8 days ago, we were sitting here completely stressed out about the fact that a 10-year was at 4.79."

Joe said that what the market seemed to like on Tuesday is what it views as a "deliberate approach" to implementing "tariffs with China."

Joe asserted, "Momentum is one of the best-performing strategies, if not the best, so far year to date, it's up 6%."

Eventually, Joe basically admitted that being long Mag 7 will be a good strategy, at least under certain economic situations, although he gave it enough qualifiers when he should just be saying it'll be another Mag 7 year. Joe said, "Don't get too excited about not owning the Mag 7," because if there's "friction" with inflation and yields rise, "You're gonna want to own those Mag 7."

Joe said he took a personal position in TER with a "tight stop" at 125, "and I said, 'Take a very small position.'" Judge noted how it was cut to underweight by Morgan Stanley.

Josh: 2 weeks left of Trump Trade talk

Josh Brown on Tuesday's (1/21) Halftime Report stated, "We're probably a week or 2 away from the Trump Trade talk subsiding and people getting back to focusing on fundamentals."

Judge said Mary Erdoes said at Davos that banks are in the "beginning of 'go mode.'"

Judge relayed Stan Druckenmiller's comments to Becky Quick a day earlier about the impact of Donald Trump's policies. Judge said Stan says he's a "believer in animal spirits" and that CEOs Stan talks to are "somewhere between relieved and giddy."

Brian Belski said of inflation, "Whether or not we get to 2% I think is almost a moot point ... people are too focused on that 2%."

‘The Trump Trade is back on’

Kevin Simpson at the beginning of Friday's (1/17) Halftime Report observed that "if yields come down, stocks go up," but the only question about the 5% 10-year is when will it happen.

Brenda Vingiello said the market rally needs "earnings to definitely come through."

Steve Weiss said Scott Bessent's testimony on Thursday (which preempted Thursday's Halftime Report) "was pretty good" and "very strong" and we should have "confidence" in him. Weiss said Bessent said he'll be "apolitical" and is "very focused on the deficit" (snicker) (yeah sure, Scott Bessent is going to rein in the deficit).

"It appears today, the Trump Trade is back on," Weiss said, singling out bitcoin.

"I would ignore these money market flows," said Bryn Talkington, adding it's "just a small crumb of data."

Weiss: Buy S&P or Nasdaq instead of AAPL

Kevin Simpson on Friday's (1/17) Halftime Report said, "Everyone freaks out when we sell Apple," even though he's sold it 10 times in 13 years.

Brenda Vingiello said that relative to the Mag 7, AAPL revenue growth seems "limited," and reax to its AI product is "mixed."

Steve Weiss said, "You might as well own just the S&P index or the Nasdaq index instead of owning AAPL because you get the same performance without worrying about the volatility when they report earnings."

Brenda sold AMD, saying AVGO seems like the bigger winner. Brenda cut half of her ADBE position; management's guidance was a "disappointment." Brenda added to WYNN, but SNOW was a new addition.

Guest host Frank Holland questioned, "Why Wynn right now." Brenda's rationale seemed less than convincing; she said she expects Macau's recovery to continue, and there's a new property due in the UAE in 2027.

Kevin said he wrote a covered call on UNH on Tuesday expiring 3 days later on Friday at 545, it brought in $10.80, "a 1,500% annualized premium."

Bryn Talkington suggested selling NVDA May 160 calls for $7.45.

Kevin bought TPL at $900; he trimmed after it ran to $1,600 but bought more in the "$1,300 range."

Weiss admitted he actually bought SLB. "I think the service companies are the way to go," Weiss said. Like nearly all of his positions, "it's a starter position."

Weiss said NFLX is going after "non-U.S.-speaking (sic) (snicker) countries," a slight twist to his regularly bullish NFLX outlook. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Kevin Simpson said he bought HOOD "last Friday at $40." He sees "a lot more potential" for this stock. Kevin said HOOD is getting "into the right businesses, not sports betting."

Weiss said of crypto, "The animal spirits here are alive and well; the momentum will continue," or basically what he's been saying since last autumn.

Grasso has ‘outsized bet’ in bitcoin

On Friday's (1/17) Fast Money, Karen Finerman said that "at the end of 2024, the U.S. had $489 billion worth of gold. Um, and what was it, 20, 10 billion dollars of bitcoin ... 20? ... There's a lot of room between here and there."

Steve Grasso said "you're only going to have a maximum of 21 million bitcoin ... I have an outsized bet in bitcoin; I think it goes much higher."

Steve said that when he watches streaming, he always starts with NFLX (this writer is long NFLX) and maybe he'll "wind up" watching Paramount and Hulu, only if there's some reason for him to go there. Steve said much is expected of NVDA, and "nothing" is built in to the price of INTC. Steve also contended that Donald Trump "ties himself" to the stock market and bitcoin; "he's not going to let either one fail." Grasso also maintained, as he has previously, that Donald Trump will not let X fail. (This writer is long X.)

CNBC’s Fast Money
live event is sold out

If you were waiting to buy a ticket, you waited too long.

Halfway through Wednesday's (1/15) Fast Money, Melissa Lee brought up the show's Feb. 27 "live event" at the Nasdaq in which guests will enjoy cocktail hour with the panelists and receive a commemorative gift. Missy revealed, "Thanks to overwhelming response from our loyal fans, we sold out in record time! All the tickets are gone, in less than 48 hours. But if you missed out, don't worry, you can join the waiting list ... we might have future events as well."

Weiss declares ‘Valuation really is an arbitrary number’

Taking a victory lap of sorts, Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (1/15) Halftime Report told this story:

"I got a phone call Monday afternoon after the show, from a hedge fund manager whose name I will leave out of this conversation," but the caller noted Joe saying on CNBC that yields are near a peak (see below), and the caller wondered how Joe would feel Wednesday when "CPI comes out and the 10-year is approaching 5 and a quarter."

Joe said the CPI data actually "shakes some of the excessive short positioning in the Treasury market."

Grandpa Weiss, who should just buy the Mag 7 and call it a year but can't figure out whether he's "super bearish" or not bearish at all (he claimed with a straight face "I'm not bearish"), said if the job numbers continue at present pace, "you will see inflation return."

Weiss claimed that Joe was "very immodestly claiming victory and slapping down an unnamed fund manager."

"I think we're out of the woods for now," Grandpa added, but it's "too early to declare that we will see a cut in March." Judge asserted that the market had already "kinda been declaring" that there won't be cuts for the "foreseeable future."

Joe said the Nasdaq is "one place you could look." (Translation: Buy the Mag 7.)

Liz Young Thomas said we "can't declare victory" over inflation, but core CPI was "definitely some sweet relief."

In yet another correct jab on the show at P.E. ratio investing strategies (snicker), but not by someone who regularly jabs it, Weiss actually claimed, "Valuation really is an arbitrary (sic, he didn't really mean the number is 'arbitrary,' but that the judgments as to whether it's high or low are 'arbitrary') number, right. It's based upon historical, uh, you know, experience in terms of where these stocks are trading, where the market was trading. That's pretty much been thrown out the window as ETFs have taken control of the equity markets."

Jenny complains that stocks didn’t go down far enough

Jenny Harrington on Wednesday's (1/15) Halftime Report questioned if the new administration/Congress gets off to a bumpier start than what Jenny thinks the market expects; Jenny said the market is "anticipating a best-case scenario."

Liz Young Thomas said, "I think we already unpriced a lot of it though." Jenny complained that the market's only down 3%.

Jenny actually mentioned "our insane budget deficit," as though anything will be done about it.

Grandpa Weiss actually bought NFLX after he "sold some a few- a couple of weeks ago" because of "risk management," but the stock has "corrected," but it's not even a "definitional (snicker) correction." (This writer is long NFLX.)

Weiss touted pricing power and sports and noted how many popular Netflix programs are in foreign languages, there's "fertile ground" for international growth.

Those are fine points, but Kevin Simpson really said it best about a week ago (see below): Netflix has all kinds of levers to pull with advertising, and they're charging people less than they'd actually pay for the service.

Weiss has 1 great line

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (1/15) Halftime Report stated that nat gas is going to be the "solution" to meet growing power demands.

Steve Weiss said the investment concern is whether there's "too much natural gas in this country." Joe said he "really" doesn't think so.

Weiss demanded of Joe, in what was his best question/statement/punch line of the year, "Tell me all the supercycles that were predicted that actually came to fruition. Give me even 1."

Not answering the question, Joe said, "OK. Can we just have a little mini-cycle."

Meanwhile, Weiss said if UNH trades down "significantly," he'd use it as a "buying opportunity," but he only has a "small position."

Jim Lebenthal joined remotely to take a victory lap on C (Zzzzzzzzzz). "It's now at 85% of tangible book value ... I see no reason that doesn't go to 100% ... and I mean, soon."

Later on Fast Money, panelists agreed with Jim. "There really was a lot to like," gushed Karen Finerman about Wednesday's bank reports. Tim Seymour said "the bank messaging was fantastic."

Whew — a day without Weiss expressing all kinds of ‘super bearish’ points and then claiming he’s not super bearish

Jim Lebenthal on Tuesday's (1/14) Halftime Report kinda indicated he'd prefer, despite Lourenco's statements this week, that his favorite $10 stock CLF simply stay away from X.

Jim said that as an investor in CLF, he "would like to get U.S. steel behind us." Jim said that buying "pieces" of X will "bring balance-sheet stress" to CLF.

Still, Jim predicted, "from here to year-end, you're gonna see positive returns on the stock." Of course. When has Jim ever not predicted positive returns for CLF.

Stephanie Link explained why she bought UNH, which Jim and Jason Snipe also own. Judge noted the tragedy in New York last year and the reaction to it but said it seems to him like those on the show who have bought the stock are under the impression "this too shall pass."

Jim argued that the system can't stick it to health insurers; "They need these companies to administer Medicare." Jason said Medicare reimbursement news a day earlier was "huge."

Jim noted the frenzy over Jeremy Siegel Day the calls for "emergency rate cut!!!!" 6 months ago.

Jim bought AZN and said it got a "knockdown" from China news last year.

Judge said it's "interesting" (snicker) that Jim trimmed AAPL when it's down about 10%. Jim said he's picking spots within the Mag 7 that he wants to "accentuate" (snicker). Jason said "they don't trade as a monolith" in the Mag 7. Jim said AAPL is a "core (snicker) member" of the Mag 7.

Stephanie said, "I made a lot of money in D.R. Horton last year and even in Home Depot."

Josh Brown presented an interesting chart comparing the 10-year yield with RKT.

On Fast Money, during a TikTok discussion, Steve Grasso said of SNAP, "if anyone needs a ban on TikTok," it's SNAP.

Anastasia stuns in white

The early portion of Monday's (1/13) Halftime Report turned into a go-round on 1) why stocks are slumping and 2) how long it lasts.

Judge opened the show about a "Bloomberg story that I saw today" about Goldman seeing a "big change in equity positioning from institutional investors."

Josh Brown said, "We literally told you this was going to happen. 2 weeks ago, and 3 weeks ago, on this show. ... There's a massive wealth management-driven move happening here that is 100% related to private clients telling their advisor, 'Don't you dare drop a tax bill on me in the last 2 weeks of this year. We're taking our massive Nasdaq gains next year at the earliest."

We're sure that's at least part of it. It does get into some of the weirdness involving taxes that this page has tried to address (but all of that is for another time).

Josh added, "It's tax. Listen to me now. I know this. It's tax."

Judge offered, "It may be that," but "it's also the change in- in interest rate."

Anastasia Amoroso, who buckled knees in white, said the January market "might be a struggle ... between the positives and negatives." Anastasia also cited "increasing odds of rate hikes," which she said are up to 35%.

Grandpa Steve Weiss said we have to look at the "symptoms and the causes of this," which is that bonds are "spiking because tariffs are reality."

Weiss then said he actually ties tariffs to national security. "I agree with taliff- tariffs, because I do think it's a matter of national security, and I do believe ultimately it will create jobs and increase the onshoring activity we see. But in the interim, it's like any other thing that's good for ya, right. If you wanna lose the weight, you've gotta put in the effort, you gotta put in the pain. And that's what we're goin' to see."

Josh asserted that tech-gain money is going to names such as HUM, VLO, CVS, "where everyone had losses last year."

In a bit of hyperbole, Joe Terranova claimed "The environment that we're in right now is the choppiest, one of the poorest environments to be transact- transacting in that we have seen since probably 2022. I agree that this is a short-term phenomenon." But that doesn't mean Joe's "running in" to "transact" (snicker).

Joe said the Dec. 18 Fed meeting is when all the momentum "broke."

Judge claimed if you took out UNH and AMGN, we "probably have a negative Dow."

Josh suggested the tax selling will be done by Jan. 15; Judge actually said that if Brown's right, "this is a great buying opportunity." Anastasia (did we mention that Anastasia has probably already won Halftime Report Outfit of the Year?) agreed that "this is shaping up to be a buying opportunity."

Weiss insisted, "Inflation's the problem."

That prompted Judge to wonder, "I don't know, man. I can't figure where you at. Are you super-bearish now?"

Weiss protested, "No I'm not. I don't know. I'm not willing to say that this is a buying opportunity just yet."

Joe said, "I truly believe we are near the top in Treasury yields."

Try to land a ticket for Fast Money’s Feb. 27 live event

Steve Weiss on Monday's (1/13) Halftime Report revealed that he trimmed IBIT; "it was an uncomfortably large speculative position, so I cut it back ... 10% maybe. Not a, not a big deal. Uh, actually I'd say a little higher than that."

Rob Sechan is a Pittsburgh Steelers fan; Rob said nothing about weekend football but said his shop bought AMZN, "we thought it was a good time to get engaged in (snicker) Amazon." Rob also bought NRG and QCOM.

Josh Brown said it looks like there could be a resurgence of "Merger Monday."

Josh said not to make anything more out of him getting stopped out of SQ.

Josh talked up BKR, EQT, KMI and LNG as among the "best stocks in the market." Maybe. We'll see how long that lasts.

Josh also said airline names DAL and UAL "should have your attention."

Josh said "the news is great" for SHAK long-term investors, but there's a "little bit of profit-taking ... little bit of sell the news." Josh even mentioned "the analog" of CMG and said SHAK "has the potential, um, to get to that type of a company."

Weiss' Final Trade was LDOS, saying the worst of DOGE is behind it.

On Monday's Fast Money, the panel discussed the developments in X, a stock/deal that gets mentioned on Fast Money far more than on Halftime. (This writer is long X.) Tim Seymour suggested the bid will be "above 40." Karen Finerman pointed out, "There's still a deal in place" that both parties want to pursue. "For a couple of months, I think there's still no clarity here." Guy Adami said "the timing is interesting" and that "somebody got a phone call" and was told to "figure it out" because "the optics around this are bad." Guy asserted, "It's not gonna be a straight line to 40," there will be a day when it's "back to 32."

Mel said you can try to get one of the 100 tickets available for Fast Money's live event on Feb. 27, it includes being able to join the crew for a cocktail hour, watch the show at the Nasdaq set, take part in a Q&A, receive a commemorative item and get "6-month subscription to CNBC Pro." Tim Seymour predicted the ticket prices will "triple" on Stubhub. (If we got a ticket, we'd demand Sully be there.)

Contessa Brewer described the L.A. devastation as "apocalyptic."

It’s a 3-peat: For the
Chiefs, and the Mag 7

Up until a few years ago, this page every January put together the toughest sports prediction challenge on the internet: Predicting the entire NFL playoffs before the first-round games.

Keep in mind that it's not like an NCAA basketball bracket — because of NFL seeding, it's impossible to know for sure who will play who in Week 2 until after the Week 1 games are over.

We had to give up that project a couple years ago when the NFL added a 7th playoff team in each conference, and guessing what the divisional-round matchups were going to be became impossible.

But we haven't given up at all on the Kansas City Chiefs, who seem like the no-brainer Super Bowl pick for this season. (Barring key injury.)

Skeptics point to all the close games this year. They weren't really that close. Honestly, we've been surprised at how the Chiefs' suspect offensive line has not only survived, but thrived, shutting out the Pittsburgh Steelers' pass rush on Christmas Day.

There's an obvious gap between the Chiefs and all other NFL teams.

The rest of the AFC field is filled with regular playoff losers. The Chargers are getting closer but aren't there yet. No way any of these teams goes into Arrowhead and wins a playoff game. Then we get to the Super Bowl. None of these NFC defenses is going to stop the 4th-quarter Chiefs offense. In fact, after two very close Super Bowl wins, we figure the Chiefs are due for a Super Bowl blowout.

Honestly, the stock market seems just as much a no-brainer. Maybe if the Federal Reserve starts redoing 75-point interest rate hikes, you'll want value stocks instead. That's not a bet this page is going to make. There are the Chiefs and the other 31; there are the Mag 7 and the other 493.

‘What small caps need is a recession’

Friday might've been a down day for stocks. But it was an up day for the Halftime Report.

Judge and his panel put together a crisp, great show with lots of provocative commentary about the market.

Josh Brown opened the show saying he's learned that "Every time the market sells off because the economy is too good, it's a buying opportunity."

"I'm not convinced that inflation is back," offered Jim Lebenthal, pointing to numbers at the start of last year. Jim said it's "healthy that expectations are being reset right now," however, "We may be in the middle innings of a correction."

Joe Terranova started to make a statistical point, "You go back to the 1980s (Zzzzzzzzzz)," but he followed it with a strong declaration: "What small caps need is a recession. Because small caps work coming out of a recession."

Moments later, Jim conceded "that's historically true," but "the last 3 years, we've seen a lot of historical patterns broken."

Jim said everyone's been saying we're "late cycle," but Jim thinks we're actually "mid- to early cycle." Josh said that instead of traditional classical economic cycles, we now have "events," and "for the last 15 years, we've only been in recession for 2 months," an interesting point that nobody ever talks about.

Joe claimed that if "you go underneath the surface" of the market, "you're beginning to see that the rotation (snicker) is actually happening, energy, health care, some of the defensive- defensive-oriented sectors that sat out 2024." (We're not so sure about that.)

Bill Baruch said the market's having a "slip" that will be a "buying opportunity."

Judge kept asking panelists about some big drops in previously high-flying tech stocks. Joe said a lot of the stocks they're talking about "kinda went parabolic" after the election, so "it's reasonable to see them fall back to where they were prior to the election."

Jim impressively explains what’s happened to the airline trade since the pandemic

Friday's (1/10) stock market was pretty bad.

But not for 1 stock — DAL, which prompted conversation on the Halftime Report.

Jim Lebenthal was as gung-ho on this stock as any in recent memory, saying "all things are going right," and he predicted it could go to a "10 multiple or higher." (Why Jim is trying to predict a multiple rather than share price, we don't know.)

Jim claimed Ed Bastian is "low-balling" guidance. Judge said "low-balling???? He- he said that this year is gonna be their best year ever."

Jim admitted "it looks that way," but "things can get out of control," which apparently means that Jim thinks the Street may not be taking Ed's comment too seriously.

Jim pointed out something that hasn't gotten enough attention — that in 2020 and 2021, some Halftime panelists (um, that would be Steve Weiss) constantly scoffed at airlines being "underwater" and 1) would never pay off the bailout and 2) would never have much business travel because everything was going to Zoom.

Jim said, "In the heart of the pandemic, everybody said, these things were dead, business travel is never coming back, we're doing Zoom. They figured it out. Kudos to them."

Well said.

Bill suggests all the bearishness for AMD is already priced in

Judge on Friday's (1/10) Halftime Report mentioned the AMD downgrade from Goldman, "the 2nd downgrade this week."

Joe Terranova noted AMD "peaked in early March of last year" and chuckled that he'd be happy if it merely stayed "range-bound." Josh Brown said it's a "dangerous name" given the competition.

But Bill Baruch wondered, "How much more bearish can AMD get at this point? ... At this point, I mean, you can only have some surprise upside news."

Josh noted it's "an AI stock that went down in 2024. That's like a, a Dave Matthews fan who doesn't get up when they play 'Ants Marching.'"

Joe claimed, despite what Bill said, the Street is "still in love" with AMD. Bill countered that last year, "being the only loser in tech, I mean how much, how much more tax-loss harvesting could it- could it withstand. ... Wait 30 days, let's see how this thing looks come middle of February." Bill added that we "may see some rotation" from NVDA to AMD.

Bill looking to add to IBIT

On Friday's (1/10) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal admitted the WYNN share price "sucks," but the "operational results are there to keep me in the name."

Bill Baruch said he owns IBIT and is actually "looking to add to that." Josh Brown pointed out how bitcoin holdings have become part of the everyday market, which has good and bad ramifications.

Jim's Final Trade was C (Zzzzzzzzzzzz). We wuz hoping traders had left that one in the rear-view mirror. Guess not.

On Fast Money, Contessa Brewer reported on the dire insurance/homeowner situation in Los Angeles. Contessa said insurers may be liable for some policies for which they haven't yet been paid premiums. Contessa also said homeowners who have a $4 million policy may find it will cost $5-$6 million to replace their home and thus they're "way underinsured."

Fast Money treat — Dylan visits Nasdaq set (and Susan Krakower, Mary Duffy, John Melloy are mentioned in 59th minute)

Honestly, we were sort of wondering throughout Wednesday's (1/8) Fast Money why the show was trumpeting its 18th anniversary particularly since the show actually has numerous "anniversaries" from when it started as a segment, then a bigger segment, then a prime time show, then a business day show, etc...., as though there was something significant about that number.

But in the final moments, we got our answer — original Fast Money host Dylan Ratigan was on hand to celebrate the permanence of the program.

Dylan, who attended Union College in Schenectady (that wasn't mentioned Wednesday), is the Tastylive/Tastytrade global editor, we learned. He also said he moved to Milan (in Italy, not Illinois) in 2018.

Guy Adami, who wore a jacket ("which I never, ever do"), said so many gracious things about Ratigan and Melissa Lee, you'll have to visit our home page to see them all.

Recalling the era of the show's early days, Karen Finerman said, "the precipice of financial disaster was just so enormous, right ... the rise of tech, the power, and how much money they make, it's extraordinary."

Meanwhile, Lawrence Golub, a special guest for the Fast Money 18th anniversary show who happens to be Mr. Karen Finerman, reported that consumer spending "looks pretty strong." Lawrence added, "We're expecting inflation in the 3's."

Karen observed of the Pacific Palisades, "If they can't get insurance, right, the property values have to go down, a lot."

Back to the anniversary ... it was somewhat of a major omission that Susan Krakower — by this official account, the actual creator of Mad Money and Fast Money — was going to go unmentioned, until Karen Finerman said to Melissa during Karen's Final Trade, "I just wanted to thank- it's been a privilege to be part of this, you, and Dylan, and thank you to Susan Krawkower and Mary Duffy and John Melloy for finding me and allowing me to do this"

The fact that Fast Money and Mad Money remain entrenched among CNBC's limited breadwinners strongly indicates Krakower made a prodigious imprint on the channel's success.

As a nice touch, some of the historical photos on Wednesday's program showed Pete Najarian. (Would've been an even nicer touch to invite the Najarii back for this event, but whatever.) (No sign either of Eric Bolling, Jeff Macke or Tim Strazzini.)

Wednesday, it was great to see Dylan Ratigan, who seems to be doing great. Dylan was not perfect. He was/is a sensational host, and his departure was a loss for CNBC.

Joe tries to claim a ‘box check’ for his botched NVDA call

Jason Snipe on Wednesday's (1/8) Halftime Report said the lack of NVDA details this week about "what is the here and now" was "somewhat of a letdown."

Jason concluded "CES was a little bit of a downer."

Jason noted "the last 6 months have been relatively flat for Nvidia."

Then Joe Terranova recapped his NVDA prediction from Monday (see below).

"I said the other day, uh, that I believed that the keynote address would lead to a new all-time high. Check the box. Got the new all-time high. That's not me patting myself on the back," Joe stated.

And as this page alone in the internet pointed out, Joe actually predicted Monday that the stock would "power" higher ... he did not say that "Oh the stock already is only pennies from the new 52-week high it's gonna hit and then reverse."

Anyway, Judge cut in Wednesday that last year, the stock climbed after CES, while this year, it did go up into the event, but "it didn't stay there."

Joe admitted, "It's very rare to see a stock trade to an all-time intraday high and then close challenging the 50-day moving average. You can't ignore that. That- that has significance."

Joe then offered an explanation for NVDA's dive, saying we have to "acknowledge" that NVDA has been "gameified." Joe said if you're a buyer around 150, you have to note "the momentum in the near term is down."

Finally, Joe stated, "Let's just acknowledge (as this page already did, a day earlier), that what I expected to happen did not happen, and now the momentum's rolled over. ... It will make a new all-time high at some point in the future."

Judge said AMD got a double downgrade from HSBC based on a less-than-impressive AI outlook. Steve Weiss claimed, "I never thought AMD would be competitive," then gave a speech about how he's never had a "core position" of NVDA and has grappled with how best to invest in this space.

Joe said "it certainly doesn't look good" for AMD's momentum and its place in the JOET. Weiss said it was "so asinine" and "made no sense" for AMD to trade for a year at a higher valuation than NVDA. Weiss said the AVGO bull case is "also overstated."

Weiss tries to argue with basically everybody

Boy did this get old fast.

Grandpa Steve Weiss, evidently irritated by Donald Trump's Greenland and Panama comments, decided to fight with basically everyone besides Donald Trump on Wednesday's (1/8) Halftime Report.

Basically, someone could've told him that the Kansas City Chiefs won last year's Super Bowl, and Weiss probably would've been screaming, "NO!!!!! TEPPER DID!!!!!!!!"

Anyway, late in the show, CNBC's Seema Mody reported on PLTR's slide and mentioned other software stocks.

Joe Terranova again advised waiting for PLTR; look for it in the upper 50s/low 60s. Joe said ... and this would prove a controversial comment ... "Valuations are rich if you continue to see yields move higher."

Judge noted high P.E. ratios of numerous software stocks. Joe said "Twilio looks great" and said ZM is "cheap" on valuation but was less enthusiastic on other names. Jason Snipe trimmed NOW and said the company's doing well but the 67 forward multiple is a bit of a concern.

Finally given a chance, Weiss bluntly stated that the valuations are "ridiculous" and that "if Joe thinks these are reasonable valuations, his wife must have a closet full of Birkin bags."

Joe protested, "Did I say I think they are reasonable valuations? I said Zoom is reasonable."

Weiss claimed, "What you said was, I'm paraphrasing, granted, you said, 'But is 5 reasonable. At 5% then I'd start to worry,' meaning that you're OK now," which isn't what Joe said.

"No, I said- No! I said as yields move towards 5%, these are gonna be challenged," Joe said. Weiss demanded a "ruling" from Judge.

Judge told Joe, "You, you said that these valuations were high because of where you- you know, with yields at this level."

Joe insisted, "The current price is a reflection, and the pullback in these stocks is a reflection, in (sic not 'of') the rise in yields." Joe said 3 months ago, valuations were "anchored."

Earlier in the show, Weiss insisted to Judge that "part" of deregulation is already in the market. Judge said extending the tax cuts is "not necessarily in the market." Weiss said "of course it's in the market."

Shannon Saccocia though cut in to say "I think the impact of deregulation is being underappreciated" and predicted an "M&A drive." Weiss argued that "funding in the private markets is still ridiculously tough." Judge said, "You runnin' for the hills ... you sound so negative." Weiss admitted, "I am biased towards negative, absolutely."

Judge says the difference with Donald Trump this time is ‘he’s not running for reelection’

Opening Wednesday's (1/8) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova stated, "The equity to bond correlation has turned negative," and we're being "held hostage" by Treasury yields.

Joe said there's "momentum as it relates to the Treasury market" and it's pointing to "higher yields."

Grandpa Steve Weiss said rising yields are "definitely" a "real problem" because they're providing an alternative to stocks and a "safety trade" if the U.S. tries to seize Greenland and the Panama Canal, which Weiss said creates "nervousness" and "instability."

Then Weiss basically said what matters is "inflation, inflation, inflation."

Jason Snipe said the "pace of rates" is "significant."

Judge said Weiss was "bailing" on the India trade "in numerous ways." Weiss claims he "made money" but not as much as he expected; he still sees supply chains moving from China to India, but he also sees "more onshoring."

Weiss questioned no one in particular, "Is it really pro-business if you get a cowardly move by Mark Zuckerberg on Meta to say, OK, anything goes now, and then, what do you- what are the advertisers gonna think?"

Joe said yields are an issue outside of the U.S. too. Joe said the "consensus" for 2025 has been "choppy 1st half, better 2nd half." Weiss scoffed, "That's always the consensus in the U.S. ... They can't say it's gonna be a bad '25. It's gonna be a worse '26."

Joe said he thinks "choppy" and offered, "I also think the president-elect cares what happens in the stock market ... the minute the stock market declines, he's gonna go 'Whoa,' he's gonna call his economic team and say, 'Hey, put somethin' out there to comfort the markets.'"

Grandpa Judge said, "I would only say that the difference this time is, he's not running for reelection, I think he cares more about what he cares about getting done (snicker) than necessarily how the stock market, tick by tick, reacts to what he does."

Weiss said "choppy" is the "best case."

Weiss actually correctly calls out b.s. about Nelson’s label

Judge in the 22nd minute of Wednesday's (1/8) Halftime Report announced "an exclusive uh that we've just, uh, got our hands on," which was Trian sending an "open letter" to SOLV shareholders.

Steve Weiss suggested companies have gotten more "emboldened" in telling off activists, and Peltz doesn't own enough to "influence the board," so "I don't expect much to happen there."

Judge said Nelson Peltz will argue he's "more than an activist, but a constructivist (snicker)."

"And that's b.s.," Weiss blurted. "If you're truly being constructive, you do it behind closed doors," Weiss added.

Weiss said that Weiss can call himself a 6-5, NBA player. Judge said not only has he seen Weiss' height, "I don't even need to see your basketball skills to know that's b.s."

"My skills are good," Weiss insisted, maybe his only funny line of the day. Weiss said SOLV "deserves to be cheap."

Weiss and Judge then haggled over how long Peltz stays in stocks. Weiss suggested Peltz will bolt early; Judge would be "shocked" if that happens here, "he's a pretty long-term holder" of stocks he's gotten involved in," Judge said, but Weiss said Peltz exited DIS once he got "relief."

Meanwhile, Joe Terranova bought TER, saying it's "finally gaining traction in terms of AI-facing exposure" and is "breaking out technically," but Joe suggested a "tight stop."

Judge said Cowen downgraded LDOS. Weiss said companies in that space are "in the crosshairs of DOGE."

Regarding Goldman's double upgrade of TRV, Joe said catastrophic losses for insurers have been "significant" for a few quarters, but the margins are resilient.

Joe said for CEG, Calpine would be a "good deal."

Steve Grasso: ‘Both Biden and Trump’ got the X decision right

Tuesday's (1/7) Fast Money included a spirited debate on the fast-moving developments in the X-Nippon Steel/CLF situation. (This writer is long X.)

Tim Seymour said of the blocking of the deal, "I don't really understand this," as it's "not 1950 in this country, where they made half the world's steel."

Steve Grasso reiterated a point he has made a few times recently: "I think you'll see a bailout," apparently of X, and that Donald Trump is "gonna figure out how to get 'em a billion dollars," either through "tax incentives" or "tariffs"; or "any way necessary."

Steve added, "I do see why it's a critical industry. And yes, Japan is a major ally, but they weren't always a major ally. ... It's about unions, it's- it's about a whole bunch of other things ... I'm a believer that both of them, both Biden and Trump, got this one right."

Melissa Lee, after airing statements from David Burritt and Lourenco Goncalves, said the commentary was "really outspoken"; then Tim and Mel agreed "he should be," and whether they were referring to Burritt or Lourenco wasn't at all clear and was a production lapse.

Tim and Mel made clear they don't see the argument for blocking the deal; they protested that Nippon Steel made promises about not laying anyone off. Tim insisted, "This isn't about unions." Steve said, "I think it's about foreign ownership." Karen Finerman said, "I think the reverberations could be much greater than just this 1 deal ... with an ally ... they're not welcome."

Steve said, "I also have a problem with China buying farmland next to military industries."

Mel said, "China buying farmland is far different than Nippon Steel investing in U.S. Steel."

Steve said, "I don't think it's that much different."

Mel said, "China is not an ally. Japan is an ally."

"Whether it's an ally or an enemy, why would we want to pull- put another country in charge of our steel industry," Steve asked. "It just doesn't make sense to me."

"We can't make everything ourselves, right," Karen said.

"We can make steel ourselves," Steve said.

"But they can help us, right," Karen said.

"I just don't want them owning it," Steve said.

Tim said Keystone Pipeline opposition "made no sense to me."

At the end of the show, Mel declared Mike Khouw the winner of the show's 2024 Acronym Challenge. These acronyms were talked about during the year but were more of an inside-joke thing than something we wanted to chronicle. Basically Mike picked bitcoin as part of BRAVE. Karen Finerman got 4th place basically only because of picking META in HELM, and Steve Grasso got 2nd, mostly for GOOGL and ethereum.

Despite Joe’s prediction, Jensen’s speech doesn’t ‘power’ NVDA higher

A year ago, Joe Terranova got red hot in January with a couple of Mag 7/broader market calls.

This year, it seems like he's already 0-for-1, and we haven't even had a full week of trading.

On Monday (1/6), Joe opened the show saying of NVDA, "It's gonna continue to go higher. It's gonna take out the all-time high at 152.89. ... I expect nothing short of a very optimistic, uh, address this evening from Jensen Huang, I think that will power the stock higher."

On Tuesday (1/7), the stock did indeed take out 152.89 — barely, by reaching 153.13 early. It quickly slid and finished the day down $9.

It's not in Marc Chaikin Land yet. It could always bounce back soon and "power" ahead as Joe indicated. So far, Joe's call seems a miss. For a day, at least, it seems the correct call was to sell the rumor as NVDA traded up at 152.16 Monday. If it's back over 150 this week, Joe could still have an early victory. Within a short period of time, we'll know whether Joe's forecast was accurate ... or a short-term top.

Josh says dividend-stock performance generally trails the S&P 500, says buybacks are a ‘better deal’

Rarely does the Halftime Report delve into any science (if that's the correct word) regarding stock investing (probably because some of that science utterly deflates the sentiments of several on the Investment Committee), but Tuesday's (1/7) Halftime Report produced an interesting conversation about dividend investing, courtesy of Josh Brown.

Josh stated, "You find a lot of people who got back into the market after the Great Financial Crisis, or sometime thereafter, but they allocated so heavily to the dividend factor, that they really missed out on a lot of what else drives market performance."

Brown insisted, "I am pro-dividend," but "54% of the time, it trails the performance of the S&P 500 over all 12-month rolling periods going back 30 years."

Josh explained how the 36% of retained earnings going out in dividends has been "pretty constant," but buyback spending has gone from "17% to 71% of all corporate cash," because "it's a better deal for stockholders."

Brown pointed out that demanding a dividend means missing out on stocks such as BRK-B, AMZN, NVDA.

Brian Belski said (basically) he thinks Josh is the greatest thing since sliced bread, but, "I completely disagree with you," stating that with dividends, "you can't look at dividend yield; you have to look at dividend growth."

Josh said, "I didn't say a word about dividend growth ... I'm talking about the dividend factor, which weights toward high dividend."

Belski agreed with Josh's comment that "Companies pay a high dividend for the most part because their share prices have collapsed," as Brown noted that dividend yields seem to go high just so they can be cut.

Josh said stats show dividends+buybacks leads to far stronger returns, and it's "completely false" that dividend stocks are "less volatile."

What Brown didn't get into was that a lot of people like the dividend stream and count on it in some way, even if, to our understanding, a better strategy may simply be to own a non-dividend stock and trim a few shares every quarter. Tax treatment can really affect people's mindset here even if maybe it shouldn't. But people can choose whichever approach they like. Brown's comments were most relevant in regard to what a high dividend (in terms of yield) often but not always signifies — a slumping share price and a place where the company can cut.

Josh unfazed by 5% NVDA pullbacks

At the top of Tuesday's (1/7) Halftime Report, Judge asked Josh Brown about NVDA's pullback. Josh said, "I try not to make too much of it."

Judge persisted that this is a "notable rollover," and Judge wondered, "Is this the breakout, or the breakdown."

Josh said there was nothing "at all" in Jensen's remarks that indicated any kind of a slowdown. Josh said NVDA is his largest position again. "I can live with 5%, uh, pullbacks. They don't, they don't affect me; they don't faze me."

Sarat Sethi said of NVDA, "It's gonna probably be dead money, or up and down, until earnings."

Stephanie Link called it "just a bit extended."

Someone makes CMCSA a Final Trade based in part on SpinCo

Stephanie Link happened to mention on Tuesday's (1/7) Halftime Report that inflation at 3% is "not horrible."

Judge retorted, "You cannot have a market that did all the work that it did (snicker) on the expectation ... of inflation coming down closer to target, and then now tell me that 3% is OK. It's not OK! It's not OK!"

Judge said MoffettNathanson downgraded AAPL to sell, "and their commentary I thought was worth reading to you as well."

Judge said the note said there's been a "great deal" of AAPL news recently, and "all of it's been bad."

Josh Brown said he doesn't disagree at all; "I don't understand what the fundamental drivers were behind the Apple rally." Sarat Sethi suggested, "It's a trading call. It's not an investing call." Stephanie Link said, "When I sold it, I was up about 35%." Congrats.

Brian Belski said B of A's cut to TSLA is just a "trading call."

Josh said SHAK has been a "spectacular winner," and he's not selling any of his stock "regardless of how much it's up."

Sarat Sethi touted FCX and the long-term need for copper but he said the trade is "gonna take some time."

Sarat bought more NSRGY (which is Nestle, not a stock heard often on the program).

Sarat said he's "selling my United and moving into Delta," which will be his "one and only" airline.

Josh again talked up RDDT's supposed monetization of one of the biggest "treasure troves" of (often stoopid) user comments that "LOMs" (we think that means Learning Object Metadata) will buy. Sarat's Final Trade was actually CMCSA, which he noted is "spinning off cable" (that would be SpinCo, which will be signing the CNBC contributor checks).

Judge bluntly says that Jim got buffaloed out of GM

Judge on Monday's (1/6) Halftime Report brought up GM and demanded of Jim Lebenthal, "Did you sell it too soon?"

Jim said, "Not by the numbers (snicker), I sold it at 57," but Jim said the question is "Should we get back into GM?"

Judge wondered, "Should you ever have gotten out of something based on an initial, 'Well, tariffs are comin'! Oh, I got to sell.' Which is what you did."

Jim responded, "I think the answer is yes, but I had experience, remember. I'd been in General Motors through the first Trump administration."

On Fast Money, Guy Adami said, "I don't think GM is out of the woods yet at all. And I think, in order to prove itself, it needs to close above 60. I don't see that happening anytime soon."

Joe predicts NVDA takes out all-time high

Joe Terranova opened Monday's (1/6) Halftime Report saying NVDA is "gonna continue to go higher. It's gonna take out the all-time high at 152.89."

Much of the NVDA conversation is everything you've heard before. Apparently Steve Weiss got a call while Jim was talking about NVDA having an "actually cheap" PEG ratio, prompting Jim to ask, "Are you with us?" Judge pointed out, "He's got a phone call coming in." Jim said, "Yeah. Jensen Huang."

Bryn Talkington suggested PLTR "trades down going into earnings this quarter." Joe said "I don't believe you reach for it right here," rather, look for it "somewhere in the upper 50s to the low 60s. I think that's the right spot."

If all the bitcoin in the world were locked away at Fort Knox, that would mean ... what ...

On Monday's (1/6) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss shrugged at what Judge said are "some" people making $250,000 bitcoin predictions, stating, "For me, it's a directional (snicker) trade" (as opposed to those other trades with no direction).

Bryn Talkington said the whole bitcoin reserve currency thing is just a "narrative" and not a "reality," but the institutional adoption is the "real deal."

Meanwhile, Bryn mentioned how UBER management thinks the stock is "undervalued." Weiss thinks more Ubers will be needed as "the work-from-home experiment is thinning out."

Jim Lebenthal said the DIS "narrative (snicker) has changed." (But who's Bob going to be replacing in 2028?) Jim is still talking about the final payment for Hulu.

Bill Baruch, who bought TSLA last year on Bottom Day in one of the show's best trades of 2024 (see below), joined remotely to say he trimmed AAPL. Bill bought MBLY and contended MBLY will be "in the thick of it" with autonomous driving. He sold TMUS for ... (drum roll) ... "portfolio management." Bill bought AMD, saying "this thing is way overdone to the downside."

Bill also bought more UBER, which was The Most Popular Stock On The Show.

Weiss actually bought UNH and made it his Final Trade. Jim offered RIG, which he admitted got "bear mauled during tax-loss harvesting in December."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman knocked the notion of C trading at a supposed all-time high just because it did a 1-for-10 a while back.

Jim and Weiss accuse each other of arguing for the sake of arguing

Early on Friday's (1/3) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal said "I hate hearing" one of "these aphorisms" that "you have to own the Mag 7." Jim concluded moments later, "When people say to you, 'You have to own something,' it's just not true."

But he was just getting warmed up.

Around the 20th minute, Jim stated, "I don't hear anyone ... coming into the desk today and saying, 'Let's go load up on the Mag 7.'"

Jim made it sound like that's unusual.

We don't think we've ever heard a Halftime panelist advise people "load up on the Mag 7" or even that people "have to" own the Mag 7 ... even though it's been a phenomenal trade for the last 2 years and basically the last decade.

1) Jim is detecting clues anywhere he can find them that suggest it's better to own CLF (snicker) than any Mag 7 name; 2) Just because nobody mentions a trade on the Halftime Report doesn't mean it's not working — it can be perhaps quite the contrary.

Anyway. Jim's comment led into a fairly amusing dust-up with Steve Weiss, also on the set at Post 9, stating that he added to VRT. Weiss further protested that he's been "fully invested in the Mag 7."

Jim stressed that his point is that Weiss, Bryn Talkington (the day's 4th panelist but not at Post 9) and Jim have all been trimming and told Weiss, "You're not hearing me. You're arguing with me just to argue with me. I'm saying nobody's coming on the desk today and saying, 'I'm adding to the Mag 7.'"

Weiss said, "I don't wanna argue with you for the sake of arguing, like you're trying to do. What I'm saying is, there's a difference between trimming, because of portfolio management, and because of fundamentals."

Jim said, "We're talking different things, and you're getting mad."

Weiss said, "I'm not getting mad. I try to be very patient with you." (Imagine if they were talking about Park City slopes.)

Guest host Courtney Reagan said at the end of the A Block that it was a "jam-packed beginning of the show."

Despite Jim's commentary, Tim Seymour on Fast Money (keep in mind, it's only the 3rd day of the year) suggested, "I actually think that '25 could look similar to '24."

Trim every day ... trim, trim, trim ...

In a show full of stock-trimming revelations, Steve Weiss on Friday's (1/3) Halftime Report said he trimmed Alphabet, for Reason No. 1 on the program, "the position frankly just got too big."

Weiss again knocked Waymo's profitability and again pointed out how with Uber, drivers pay for the insurance and upkeep of the cars, his favorite observation of the UBER/TSLA/GOOGL sphere.

"Call me old school, but I want a person in the driver seat," guest host Courtney Reagan said. Weiss insisted that riding in Waymo is "fine" and even "great."

Later, Court noted Benchmark reiterated a "sell" on NFLX. (This writer is long NFLX.) Weiss of course trimmed that too, he waited until this year to do it, and it was "purely a ... (drum roll) ... portfolio management call. ... The position just got way too big," he said, after extolling how great and promising the company is.

Kevin Simpson, who was at Post 9, said 2 things about NFLX this page totally agrees with: "They haven't really figured out how to completely monetize advertising," and "you can charge us anything; we're not gonna get rid of Netflix."

Actually, AT&T went straight up last year

Opening Friday's (1/3) Halftime Report, Bryn Talkington said she trimmed half of her AAPL stake, saying she thinks it's probably just a "market performer" and it already had a good November-December.

Steve Weiss said he trimmed AAPL too, he had bought into a "major upgrade cycle, until I learned that they're just gonna roll things out gradually."

Jim "Don't Buy Mag 7" Lebenthal said he agrees with Weiss, and "I applaud the move" made by Bryn.

Kevin Simpson said he's "sold Apple 10 times over the past 13 years."

Weiss yet again, for about the 10th year running, brought up the possibility, "given the problems telcos are having, right, how the stocks are just being shunned," of telcos saying "no more subsidies; we're tired of supporting Apple." Jim said it's "reasonable" but we don't know "when."

Jim added, "You've said it before."

CLF hit a 52-week low on Monday (at least Jim’s clients won’t call and complain about buying a stock at an all-time high)

Might as well get it out of the way.

On Friday's (1/3) Halftime Report, after a discussion of the U.S. Steel pending bailout, Jim Lebenthal said he found a reason to buy still more CLF and noted that CLF made an offer for X a while back, "so certainly U.S. Steel could've done better."

Judge would've given Jim the 3rd degree, had Judge been there, but guest host Courtney Reagan probably doesn't know viewers' history of hearing Jim talk about CLF.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said of the X deal that Joe Biden is blocking, "This has been a crazy one from beginning to end." Steve Grasso said Donald Trump is "not gonna let this one fail," Steve is long X and thinks "it goes substantially higher."

Jim gets Weiss back with a good dig on energy

On Friday's (1/3) Halftime Report, Bryn Talkington said FANG will continue to be "somewhat of a darling" in energy.

When guest host Courtney Reagan turned to Steve Weiss and said, referring to energy, "such a loser," Jim Lebenthal said, "What about energy?"

Kevin Simpson chimed in, "I thought that, but I didn't say it."

Weiss said of Jim, "Here's the thing: Even if he says something funny, it's deliberately so bad, you can't tell if he's talking about Cleveland Cliffs again, or me."

Kevin Simpson said he's sticking with MSTR as a "leveraged play on bitcoin" and mentioned how you can "bring in massive cash flow" by writing calls against it. Bryn suggested IBIT and said she sold May 70 calls for "close to $4 in premium." Weiss said "you can believe" bitcoin is going higher because of the new administration.

In fact, for his Final Trade, Weiss predicted $125,000 "is the next stop" for bitcoin.

Weiss also bought more GS, citing "so much pent-up demand" in the IPO/secondary cycle, another point he's made numerous times in the last couple years.

Court asked panelists for a New Year's resolution; they mostly basically said, do a good job and pick the winners. Jim had no resolutions, stating that the change of the calendar "doesn't change who I am." Courtney said, "My resolution is to make more meals my kids will eat."

Karen: ‘Not a dry eye’ at EC when Tyler signed off on Power Lunch

Thursday's (1/2) Fast Money was guest-hosted by Tyler Mathisen, whose sign-off from Power Lunch in December was chronicled on our home page.

In incredibly classy remarks at the top of Thursday's show, Karen Finerman told Tyler, "It's so nice to have you in your retirement ... that sendoff a week or two ago, whenever it was, really, not a dry in EC. Anyway, we're lucky to have you."

Meanwhile, later, Guy Adami said there's "more pain on the downside" for homebuilders. But Karen said builders could be in a "sweet spot" in that there's "enormous" pent-up demand, but inventory isn't coming on-line yet, and she'd be inclined to give 'em a shot.

Jim plans a ski trip not realizing there’s a strike going on

Having a TV platform gives folks a chance to ... vent personal outrage.

Jim Lebenthal on Thursday's (1/2) Halftime Report complained that he was in Park City, which got 2 feet of new snow, but Vail Mountain "didn't let any of us know that there was a ski patrol strike goin' on, so less than 20% of the mountain was open at the peak holiday time."

‘If you’re 85, you’re not gonna like what I’m saying’ (a/k/a Jim gets called with complaints about buying stocks at all-time highs)

Thursday's Halftime Report opened with a series of potential warnings — which doesn't really do anyone any good right now — and then got downright loopy as Josh Brown and Joe Terranova discussed "flows."

Jim Lebenthal said "I'm actually happy with some uncertainty," and he said the uncertainty in the market comes from presidential policies. Even so, "I do see a good year ahead" based on the "profit picture," Jim explained.

Liz Young Thomas declared, "Typically when the market is up over 50% in 2 years, you still see positivity in the following 12 months, but not to the magnitude that we've seen." (Translation: Another prediction for a market that's up 8-10% in a calendar year ... when have you ever heard that before ...)

Joe Terranova reverted to the land mine metaphor, stating, "The biggest potential land mine that's in front of us here in the next 30 days is earnings."

Then Joe said the "first several weeks" of January will clue us in to the "personality" of the 2025 market. "It's surprising to me that we're actually higher," Joe said, although it went down later in the day. (This review was posted overnight Monday/Tuesday.)

Josh Brown pointed out, "The majority of Wall Street was way underweight equities, uh, going into 2024." Then he stated, "What you really need to focus on here is, is flows. Very simply put: January should be a great month for flows."

Joe questioned Josh, "How do you treat the month of (sic 3 words redundant) January if the flows were to disappoint?"

Josh wondered, "Who would they disappoint?"

Joe said, "If the flows disappoint, and you don't see that type of confidence, is there a message there that you extrapolate through the remainder of the year?"

"No, I think it's a great outcome," Brown said.

Then Josh stated that "you don't wanna buy all-time highs if you don't have to. If you're 85, you're not gonna like what I'm saying. If you're any age under that, you should be happy to hear what I'm telling you. You want the pullback. Especially early in the year."

Actually, we think 85-year-olds probably enjoy buying the dip as much as anyone else. (For example, any time there's giveaways like on Jeremy Siegel Day on Aug. 5.)

Jim affirmed that a "correction would be healthy." Jim added that "a lot of times," people call him and complain about, "'Why are we buying stocks here; they're at an all-time high?' You know, almost definitionally (snicker), stocks are at all-time high all the time." (Ah. So that explains CLF, PARA and GM.)

Josh pointed out that pharma "did nothing last year," homebuilders are nowhere near 52-week highs and SBUX has never had 3 down years in a row.

Santoli suggested keeping the stock market on a "shorter leash."

Another year of UBER being incredibly underpriced by the Street that just doesn’t get it, apparently

On Thursday's (1/2) Halftime Report, guest host Courtney Reagan aired a morning clip of Jeremy Siegel (snicker) (who, um, didn't always have great calls last year) (see below) stating that companies need to see the results from all the AI stuff they're buying.

We don't really disagree with that.

Josh Brown acknowledged Jeremy's point and said, "The question is, where's the ROI. The ROI is probably gonna happen not with Copilot per se, but with agentic AI."

Jim Lebenthal touted Alphabet, though Josh Brown has been trimming. Josh though said "I love it. I'm not in love with it," calling it a "headline-risk name for the first half of this year." Josh said he thinks this is "Amazon's year" instead.

Josh said UBER is the "most mispriced stock in all of large-cap tech," though he conceded it's not a tech stock "by taxonomy" (there's that word again). Josh stressed again that UBER only has capacity problems, not robotaxi problems.

EQT = Zzzzzzzzz

Josh Brown and Joe Terranova found something to agree on during Thursday's (1/2) Halftime Report, as Josh said EQT "is about to break out."

Joe said it benefits from its "proximity" to data center demand and he praised the "strong fundamentals." Jim Lebenthal said a lot of nat gas' gains have to do with Russia-Ukraine as well as export terminals.

Meanwhile, Joe said he unloaded NU, bought it a couple months ago but it was a "horrible trade," he "got stopped out of it" and bought the XBI, which he's been "tactical" in.

Joe said the JOET owns airlines because of "momentum," which we thought is kinda why the JOET owns anything, supposedly. Joe said we "always hear about the effect of weather" on airlines (that was yet another cautionary warning about the 2025 stock market heard on the show); he'll leave the "research" to others.

Joe suggested in financials, focusing on SQ, PYPL and TW. Josh backed SQ.

Joe, Frank close the year with great message to viewers

On Tuesday's (12/31) Halftime Report, Diana Olick reported on the surprising surge in retail real estate demand. Diana said open-air malls have lower vacancies than closed-in malls.

Jenny Harrington said you can't paint the sector with "one broad brush" and touted DEA, which Jenny said got slammed by DOGE on inaccurate perceptions. Jenny also touted the yield in O. Joe Terranova offered IRM and WELL.

In a classy comment, Joe closed his Final Trade saying, "I think I speak for all of us on the Investment Committee, everyone on the show, I just wanna wish everyone in 2025 the 2 most important assets in your portfolio, and in life, and that's health and happiness. That's what matters most. Thank you to all the viewers for watching all year. It's been a phenomenal year for all of us."

Guest host Frank Holland said, "It really has. It really has been great joining you guys ... hopefully this show is really helping out our viewers make their investment decisions, you guys are all fantastic along with the other Investment Committee members that are here on Halftime every single week. It's been a pleasure and an honor to fill in with you."

Honestly, we have no idea why Josh was doing a ‘Trade School’ on ... something or other ... on Dec. 31

On Tuesday's year-end (12/31) Halftime Report, Josh Brown provided a Trade School, apparently about active management and ETFs, stating that in 2014, he "wrote a blog post called The Relentless Bid Explained, and I basically prophecied exactly what's played out." (Congrats.)

He said the transition of financial advising from commissions to "more of a fee-based, fiduciary relationship" has prompted advisors to move money from actively managed mutual funds into ETFs.

Ok. There you go.

Josh said "73% of stocks underperformed their own index. It's very very hard, as an active manager, to beat an index that does that." (At least he didn't give us a Trade School on how P.E. ratios in tech stocks are just too high.)

Joe says financial advisor unable to explain what year-end slide means

Well, it was a lousy close to 2024.

But, evidently, so what.

Guest host Frank Holland opened Tuesday's (12/31) Halftime Report saying "this is the first time since 1952 the S&P's had declines of 1% or more in the final 5 trading days of the year. Does that mean anything now?"

Joe Terranova said an advisor a day ago "hit me with that statistic," and Joe asked what it meant, "and the advisor didn't have an answer for that."

We will infer from that that it means nothing.

Joe then provided a graphic of stellar returns from 1949-52, then said that in 1953, the market went down 1%. Then he said 1954 was up 52% and 1955 was up 31%. So if 2025 is "gonna look like '53, I'll take it, if you tell me that '26 and '27 are gonna look like '54 and '55."

OK. We'll go along with that. But the idea that today's stock market should draw inspiration from the days when Otto Graham was the NFL's premier quarterback is, um, a bit of a stretch. (What did Paul Brown think about algorithms ...)

Josh Brown lectured anyone disappointed about the final week. "if you required a Santa Claus rally this year ... you've probably been doing this wrong. ... This is one of the best years in the history of the stock market," Josh said.

Josh pointed out how the "biggest bull" a year ago was Ed Yardeni, with a 5,400 target.

Frank told Jenny Harrington "just 1 more stat," that the S&P is trying to avoid closing the year with 4 straight losing days for the first time since 1966 (when Bart Starr was the NFL's premier quarterback).

"I don't see meaning in that," Jenny said, adding those kinds of stats "mess with people's heads."

Frank said the "CNBC Data Team" found that just since Election Day, 95% of the stock market's gains are in the Mag 7. Joe once again stated that he runs an "equally weighted strategy," so that kind of outperformance is "troublesome" to him. But Joe said the Mag 7 is where the earnings growth is coming. "The market is more and more growth," Joe said, pointing out for the 2nd straight day that 2016 was the last time value outperformed growth in an up year and adding, "To me, for value to outperform, it means we're having a correction in the market."

Jenny complained that AXP's multiple "shouldn't" be this much of a discount to the Mag 7. "So I can kinda see money flowing out of Mag 7 (snicker) and into stocks like that," Jenny said. Jenny said there's been "so much noise" and we need to get past inauguration and Cabinet nominations, then "let the dust settle," and people will "start to look at valuations (snicker) instead of being swayed by stories" (snicker).

The study of classifying, describing, and naming organisms

Josh Brown on Tuesday's (12/31) Halftime Report said financials had a big year, "the problem is the taxonomy (snicker) — spending all this time trying to categorize what type of stock something is ... you can have value stocks become momentum stocks."

Guest host Frank Holland said he likes Josh's use of "taxonomy."

Joe Terranova said sectors with earnings growth in 2024 besides the Mag 7 were "rewarded," including airlines and financials.

Josh said he would "trust" Tim Cook among all Mag 7 CEOs to "nail the relationship with Trump," even over Elon, "who may be flying a little too close to the sun" and according to Josh, is "inhabiting a cottage" at Mar-a-Lago "and just walking into meetings whenever he wants." But Josh said AAPL's "41 trailing P.E." is high in any terms. "If I did not own the stock, I would not be running around buying it," Josh said.

Malcolm Ethridge, who generally is on Closing Bell, touted fintech. Malcolm also backed the XLF or big banks in general, and he likes the CIBR so that he can own both PANW and CRWD, and the space is "ripe for mass consolidation." (This writer is long CRWD.) Jenny Harrington said she wants to be in cybersecurity but not at these valuations.

Joe doesn’t want ‘40% exposure to the Mag 7’

Over this weekend (see below), this page lauded Joe Terranova for several calls on the Halftime Report in 2024 favoring the Mag 7, even if Joe himself (via the JOET) isn't too excited about Mag 7 outperformance.

In the 13th minute of Monday's (12/30) Halftime, Joe bluntly stated he's tired of Mag 7 outperformance.

Joe shared, "I'm equally weighted ... I have an equally weighted strategy. I don't wanna have 40% exposure to the Mag 7. Does that mean that the Mag 7 the last 2 years have not been the place to be? Without question, they've been the place to be. And they've had the earnings growth. But at some time- at some point, does that story, is gonna change (sic)? And I think I kinda wanna get a little bit ahead of that."

Joe pointed out most of MSFT's gains in 2024 came in January; it was up 10% then, 13% now, "kinda running in place."

(Honestly ... here's where we wish we'd paid closer attention in statistics class ... we find it curious that Joe is so wary of 40% exposure to the best companies in the world. Does Joe actually think that's a greater "risk" than owning the entire S&P 500? ... As if the Mag 7 could go down 20% and the rest of the market is flat? ... Like they say ... Puh ... leeze.)

Frank asked Bryn Talkington about UBS maintaining a "sell" on TSLA and a 264 (snicker) target (the screen graphic said it's a 226 target). Frank corrected himself to 226 later and said consensus is 296.

Bryn said it's "not just a car company" and that there's still "a few bears out there." Bryn said she sold a January 400 TSLA call and expects to get called away on Jan. 17, but maybe not.

On Monday's Fast Money, Guy Adami opened honoring guest host Sully for Sully's new Power Lunch gig with a spectacular statement (see our home page) and said the market is now realizing "a lot of sort of headwinds" that have been around for a while. Grandpa Carter Worth complained about how there's only 100 years of year-end markets and "there's not a lot of data" or it's always different, but "what we do know is, the market is full." Carter predicts the market will "falter" in January.

Joe says ‘we can’t pretend to think we know’ what the future trend is

In his opening statement on Monday's (12/30) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova basically made the case against anyone sharing stock picks on TV, stating, "I think what we're learning as we approach the end of the year is that we can't pretend to think we know what the future holds in store in terms of the actual trend, the actual direction."

Joe said December is "fading" into "a narrow, concentrated performance from the Mag 7 once again." (We think we also caught a "Fliday" (sic) (snicker) from Joe.)

Bryn Talkington said "speculative froth is coming out of the market," which is "such a healthy thing to happen."

"I would say directionally, the market's going higher," Bryn said, but she wants to be "judicious" about stock picks.

Rob Sechan, speaking remotely from a living room but sounding like he's in a cavern, said he sees "the potential for a mean-reversion trade." Rob said the "unwind" of some big gainers might continue because so many people are "lopsided" in positioning.

But Rob later said it's a "fool's game" to "take an early prediction and carry it out for the balance of the year."

Jason Snipe is still "positive and constructive on the market" and thinks the dollar "will pull back some."

Joe said there are "very high expectations" for earnings in 2025, which could be the "biggest land mine."

NVDA earnings still 2 months away

During Monday's (12/30) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova looked at COIN's chart on his screen in "disbelief." (Who woulda thunk that crypto-related stuff would be so volatile.)

Rob Sechan called health care "a great warning story," because the Street expected 20% earnings growth this year but got 3%. (Who woulda thunk that health care stocks could disappoint.)

Jason Snipe pointed out the impact that higher (than usual) mortgage rates are dealing to DHI and other builders. Joe said "13% of the homebuilding construction industry is undocumented workers."

Joe suggested focusing on natural gas, pointing to demand for power from data centers.

2024’s best (and worst) of Halftime Report, Fast Money and beyond

This site — alone among financial media — makes it an annual tradition to recap the best and worst of what we heard on CNBC's Halftime Report during the past year.

It's a tradition going back to practically this site's mid-2008 inception; in our first year-end review, December 2009, we actually singled out Karen Finerman's Genentech trade, though it wasn't No. 1 that year (check our archives.)

We freely admit: 1) We don't monitor every stock pick made on the show(s) (we had to give up caring about Final Trades long ago); and 2) We don't see anywhere close to every minute of CNBC's business day programming.

Still we see and hear enough to know who — at least at times — had some big hits ... and who had some misses.

If you ever scroll through this page's archives (snicker), you'll see endless short-term commentary about how names such as NVDA, TSLA, AI stuff may trade for a few days or weeks. At year-end, we're more interested in the calls that stuck.

Most of our best/worst findings of 2024 relate to a few subjects: Bitcoin, Donald Trump, TSLA, Federal Reserve, Aug. 5.

One trend you'll see here — and we didn't realize how pervasive this was — is that a lot of stocks/investments were flat through summer and early fall, then started skyrocketing around the time of Election Day. Whether that's because of the election outcome, or just because it was finally settled, we're not sure anyone knows.

Here's the trade that would've won Call of the Year, except that no one actually stated it: "Invest in anything backed by Donald Trump."

As always, we wish the Halftime/Fast Money panelists/guests the best in trading and in making calls. We'd like to have a list of 100 great calls and 0 bad calls. But that's never how it actually works. So we try to come up with a balanced ending. This year, for whatever reason, we ended up with 19 calls on either side of the ledger.

Our goal, as always, is to inform — inform The. Best. Audience. In. The. World. Of. Media. (Yes, you know that you are.) ... If you're here, you "get it" on every level, you know what they're talking about on CNBC and you're also picking up those pop culture referencs too. Journalism is changing. Traditional media can only afford to cover far less material than it once did. We're only here because you are, cranking it out in real time, fighting for every click we get.

Now for 2024 in review — the Busts, and the Call of the Year ...

The Busts of 2024

19. Jamie Dimon, Feb. 26, on soft landing odds less than 50/50: Tells Leslie Picker he gives it a 35-40% chance.

18. Torsten Slok predicts no rate cuts in 2024 (March 1), calls stocks "overvalued" (Oct. 18): Said in October that a forward P.E. of 22 "implies a 3% annualized return over the coming three years."

17. Jeremy Siegel, Jan. 26, on growth vs. value: Said growth stocks could have "perhaps a zero year" while value is up 10-15%.

16. Jim Lebenthal rides CLF to a 52-week low, years-long: Even Al Michaels was knocking it.

15. Jenny Harrington adds KSS to portfolios that don't already have it, May 24: "Thinking about Kohl's, right, and I actually added it to the portfolios that didn't already own it."

14. Brad Gerstner, March 27, on today's political climate: Touted new initiative called Invest America, which would be a "401(k)-like account from birth." Brad said, "We expect that this will be a piece of legislation that we can get passed (snicker) in the spring of 2025."

13. Dan Ives, June 10, on Apple's WWDC: Predicted event would be a "jaw-dropper."

12. Jenny Harrington compares April 2024 market to March 2000: "We're trading at 21 times ... last time the market traded at that was January 2022, um, and March — this is really inspiring — March of 2000."

11. Steve Weiss, Jan. 25, short TSLA, bought more puts: "There is no there. The best days are far behind it ... should break a hundred." He did abandon this position during the spring, or it would've ranked higher.

10. Jeremy Siegel calls Kamala Harris "prohibitive favorite," July 5: Said his opinion is that if the Democratic nominee happens to be Kamala Harris, she will be the "prohibitive favorite."

9. Jeffrey Gundlach, calls recession in 2024, Jan. 31: "Yes I am, in 2024, Yes I am ... When I hear the word 'Goldilocks,' I- I get nervous." By Sept. 18, he was not giving up: "I still think there's a good shot that the history books will say September '24 was the start of a recession."

8. Barrons, Jan. 16, prefers UNH to Mag 7: Judge said the venerable publication decided to go "super provocative this week" by building a "better" Magnificent 7, adding BRK.B, V and UNH and subtracting AAPL, TSLA and META.

7. Marko Kolanovic's "Dotcom bubble," Feb. 7: Judge reports Marko issued a note: "Market concentration continues to flash a warning sign as we are near the highs of the Dotcom era. ... The current period is in some ways worse than the Dotcom bubble."

6. Marko Kolanovic's 4,200 S&P target, July 3: Judge: "Marko Kolanovic is, is leaving, uh, JPMorgan. Um, he had the lowest target on the Street of 4,200. We wish him well, obviously. Those are not easy jobs."

5. Dan Nathan, April 2, says TSLA ($160s that day) is "probably going to a hundred": "One of the worst-looking stock charts I've ever seen in my life" (138 was the low later that month).

4. Tom Lee says 50% small cap gains still possible, Aug. 9 (Closing Bell): Honestly, we don't think anyone actually believed it, but he did reaffirm it. He said, "I wouldn't be a seller of any of these megacaps here," but Judge reminded him that he made a call "months ago" that small caps could be up 50% this year. Tom said he's still "very constructive on small caps" and that "the upside is at least 50%." And, "I still think 50% could happen before year-end." Judge said, "Wow. Wow."

3. Dow Jones Industrial Average massively underperforms: The price weighting of this legendary index has always made people scratch their heads ... especially when UNH gets to be the top dog.

2. Comcast tosses CNBC into SpinCo, November: CMCSA honchos Mike Cavanagh and Mark Lazarus insist the cable channels it's jettisoning will "play offense" (snicker) and be "predator, not prey" and the pair (probably) mention "digital" and "IP" a bunch of times.

Bust of the Year: Jeremy Siegel’s ‘out of body experience,’ calls for emergency 75-point cut, Aug. 5

It was pretty much a unanimous vote.

Jeremy Siegel said on Squawk Box on the morning of Aug. 5, "I'm calling for a 75-basis-point emergency cut in the Fed funds rate, with another 75-basis-point cut indicated for next month at the September meeting. Uh, and that's minimum."

The comments basically speak for themselves. Still, Jeremy joined Closing Bell 9 days later, Aug. 14, and protested to Judge, "By the way, I didn't say there was a recession, I didn't say it's a bear market, I didn't say dump your stocks." But he allowed that if given a do-over, "I would've stated it differently." Later that day on Fast Money, Guy Adami said of Jeremy's commentary, "Everything that he said implied everything that he just said he didn't mean. ... I don't know what he was thinking that day. It was sort of an out-of-body experience for him clearly."

The best calls of 2024 — and the Call of the Year is ...

19. Tim Seymour dismisses small caps, Jan. 24: "Do we have to own small caps? I mean, small caps have underperformed for a decade." It's a comment that speaks for itself. Well said.

18. Josh Brown calls LYV under $100 a "gift," April 30: Making calls on stocks taking special-event hits is or should be the bread-and-butter of CNBC panelists. Josh didn't really trumpet this trade long enough to make this list. However, he was spectacularly correct in his initial Justice Dept. suit assessment and contrarian call while many warned of years of uncertainty. He did say on June 4 that he trimmed, citing regulatory overhang.

17. Dan Ives' green jacket, multiple appearances: Maybe some like the coral better. Opinions vary.

16. Bryn Talkington and Brian Belski declare P.E. a "terrible" or even the "worst" way to forecast stock moves (co-call), January: Bryn on Jan. 11 and 13 calls P.E. a "terrible metric" for stock trades. Belski says Jan. 10, "Valuation by the way is the worst thing you should look at in tech. It has no predictive power, we proved it in a- in a chart that we put in in our report."

15. The Najarians get back on CNBC — by paying their way, all year: Kinda odd to see one of CNBC's most popular duos not on any program, but in the advertisements (which they're unfortunately prolific at).

14. Josh Brown touts GLW in May and June: Easily one of the show's best short-term calls, it did come close in early August to round-tripping the sudden gain, but if you held on through year-end, you're fine.

13. Jenny Harrington talks up DOCU, Jan. 12: This stock was not mentioned much in 2024. However, we nearly put it on the list for 2023, and we're giving Jenny carryover credit, as Jenny in January (stock at $64) said she bought it at $42 in September 2023. It did virtually nothing from February through October, then caught fire at year-end for the 2nd year in a row. A great call on one of those pandemic names that people have sort of forgotten about.

12. Stephanie Link buys CMG, Aug. 14: The stock, about $51 that day, had just bottomed. This is not the biggest gainer of the calls we scrutinized, but it's a prominent stock, and basically everyone else took a wait-and-see approach to the CEO change, while Stephanie was right to plunge in.

11. Bill Baruch buys ARM just before the spike, Feb. 9: This was one of the biggest 1-day bursts ever called on the show. ARM closed that Friday at $115. On Monday it reached $148. It did pull back over the following few days but spent much of March in the 130s and 140s. Bill did backpedal, slightly, on how long he would hold it, or this would rank higher.

10. Liz Young Thomas gets married! Announced June 7: And appeared on the Halftime Report the Friday before. "Big weekend!," Judge said.

9. Karen Finerman says CRWD's slide more than outweighs legal liability, Aug. 8: This one's got a little home field advantage. (This writer bought CRWD after Karen's call and is long today.) In a discussion of DAL's lawsuit threat against CRWD in the wake of the summer outage, Karen noted the market-cap decrease in CRWD vs. the cost of the entire amount of damages that DAL was claiming and pointed out CRWD is down from 369 all the way to 240, "so I think this, this too shall pass."

8. Bryn Talkington trounces Steve Weiss in TSLA bull/bear debate, April 17: While Steve was touting shorting TSLA, Bryn cautioned against betting against the stock longer term. The shares were just a few days from bottoming, and this would rank higher had Bryn suggested "back up the truck right now" rather than the next few months probably being weak. Weiss got rather pointed in their debate. "Steve. Wisdom is chasing you if you would just stop. OK. Like, seriously," Bryn said. Weiss insisted, "What the hell is she saying? I don't even get it ... Just admit you're wrong and the stock is going lower. And I'll buy more lower. That's what she should be saying. Facts are facts." A week later, Weiss praised Bryn's "brilliant call."

7. Karen Finerman calls the Aug. 5 bottom, Aug. 2: For those who thought the yen-carry crisis was the end of the world, Karen predicted on Friday's Fast Money, "Monday, we probably sell off again, and then I would look to be buying things on Tuesday." We think the bottom actually took place Monday, but this was close enough.

6. Andrew Left pronounces market "great," June 7: Too often, CNBCers parse everything. Left was mostly on to discuss GME but breezily told Judge, "Everything's just fine. The economy's great, the stock market's great," about the best advice anyone could've had this year, or most years.

5. Bill Baruch buys the TSLA bottom with a "calculated position," April 22: Bill said TSLA hit a March 2020 trend-line low of 140 — and that day was the 2024 low. Judge scoffed, "One of my problems with technical analysis is, trend lines don't mean squat if the fundamentals of a story change."

4. Steve Weiss recommends bitcoin, most of the year: On Feb. 14, Steve predicted bitcoin would "get past" the "prior highs in the 60s." He touted it several times in Q1, then did say in late April he had sold his position, then started talking it up again in Q4. This was a strong contender for Call of the Year. Had Steve said in August, "If Donald Trump wins, bitcoin is going through the roof," it might've been.

3. Steve Grasso predicts 3 rate cuts in 2024, May 6: People forget that this was a very iffy subject in the first half of 2024, when a lot of voices on CNBC started suggesting no rate cuts this year, making this exactly-right prediction a sensational call. Karen Finerman several times questioned why the Fed would "give it away" for free when there was no need. Steve reiterated his 3-cut prediction May 15.

2. Steve Eisman predicts Donald Trump victory, May 21: The famed investor told Fast Money, "My call is, that, with as much certainty as I could possibly have, I think Trump wins every single swing state and becomes president." This would've been the Call of the Year, except that he followed it with, "Um, and, I don't think that has much implications for the market at all."

Call of the Year: Joe Terranova and the Mag 7

The. Man. Quite. Simply. Was. On. Fire.

Joe Terranova so dominated the "broader" market observations on the 2024 edition of CNBC's Halftime Report, he's the runaway choice for Call of the Year.

Even though it's not even 1 particular call that we're singling out. (That's a bit of a break with tradition.) Rather, we are taking artistic license to say that Joe's wire-to-wire series of calls — far more than any other panelists' — correctly pegged 2024 as Another Year of the Mag 7.

CNBC.com has a Mag 7 index. Here's what the chart for 2024 looks like:

Here's a quick recap ...

Jan. 10, Joe implies 2024 could be 2023 all over again: Noting small caps and energy were weak to start the year, Joe said the "Mag 5" minus AAPL and TSLA are leaders. Judge questioned, "What are you telling me, that 2024 is gonna be 2023 all over again?" "That's a big risk," Joe said.

May 22, Joe predicts NVDA, then $930-$950, breaks $1,000 after earnings: Joe expressed doubt that people would unload NVDA (which was pre-split) in the event of an earnings miss. Joe said NVDA is "set up the right way" where it keeps moving higher and tops $1,000 in afterhours. The next day, it hit $1,060, and within a couple weeks was $1,200.

June 10, Joe predicts AAPL crosses $200 after earnings: On Monday, June 10, with another highly watched earnings report looming, Joe said AAPL has "the type of momentum that most likely propels the stock above $200 at some point this afternoon or in the coming days." It didn't cross $200 until the next day — and within a month was $230.

Sept. 11, Joe says be long days after early September skid: Joe opened the program stating, "You can play the market from the long side as long as we technically hold above 5,400 in the S&P 500." At the end of the show, Joe predicted the S&P 500 (having slid 90, yes 90, points that day and down 15 points when Joe spoke) would be higher at day's end. It was.

Oct. 23, Joe is first and only panelist to suggest GOP sweep: "I also think a lot of what's going on with the semis does relate to the possibility of a Trump and Republican sweep."

Joe did waffle a bit back in February about reducing Mag 7 exposure, including his notable debate with Adam Parker on Closing Bell. Maybe, like that ESPN sportswriter show, we should dock him a point or two. But unlike how so many panelists/guests are trying to call Mag 7 direction every week or, worse yet, suggesting what to do based on P.E. ratio, Joe was consistently suggesting — from January through December — that Mag 7 is probably going higher. To Joe and the rest of the Halftime/Fast Money/CNBC sphere, 1) Thanks for showing us the way, 2) Keep doing what you're doing, and 3) Happy Trading!

Jenny suggests Wendy’s might start siphoning SBUX sales

Often, when Josh Brown and Jenny Harrington are on the same episode of the Halftime Report, viewers tend to get a debate.

That's what happened Friday (12/27), when Josh talked up SBUX and said "being down 3 years in a row is a pretty rare thing."

Jenny first told the old saw about the fastest way to make $2 million in the restaurant business; you start with $10 million. Jenny said SBUX is "overpriced" and the coffee is "mediocre."

Jenny explained that a week ago, she was "on the phone with the management team from Wendy's," and, "You know what they're looking at? They're looking at coffee ... Everyone wants to be in coffee. Because it's easy to add and it's high margin."

Josh cut in, "Find me one person, walking around, with a straight face, with a coffee cup from Wendy's, saying that they used to go to Starbucks. ... Find me one."

Jenny protested, "Joshy. Joshy," claiming "it's the same as the athleisure space."

And oh by the way, compare the DIS/NFLX market cap

Friday's (12/27) Halftime Report was guest-hosted by Frank Holland, who had Jenny Harrington and Kevin Simpson at Post 9 and Josh Brown remotely.

It was one of those light, holiday-related trading days without much news, but Frank and the crew put together a crisp show (even if Frank did ask the question about what to expect in 2025 a little too often).

Nobody seemed to think Friday's selloff — which got worse by the end of the day — was much to worry about.

Josh said maybe Friday's market is typical selling, or maybe it's people sensing there will be rebalancing sales in January and they're "trying to front-run it a little bit."

Jenny said, "We're getting a hint of what's to come. And what's to come is going to be a real, to Josh's point, rebalancing."

Kevin said he expects a "bumpy ride, volatility" in the first couple weeks of 2025, and he's "poised" to buy the dips.

Frank asked Josh if Josh sees a broadening next year. Josh said, "Respectully, there is no broadening," pointing to the Mag 7 and the group of stocks sort of near the Mag 7. Josh added, "Nothing has kept up with- with this particular subset of stocks."

Bob Pisani said he doesn't know whether "ignored" sectors can get investors off the "crack cocaine" (snicker) of AI stocks.

Kevin bought DASH and called it a "convenience that will never go away."

Julia Boorstin reported that the Netflix Christmas Day games were the "most streamed NFL games ever." (This writer is long NFLX.)

Josh said "Netflix is actually growing revenue this year faster than any other year." But Josh said NFLX is 40 times earnings while DIS is 20 times (whether those numbers are right, we have no idea) and "a little bit more attractive valuation-wise," but he wouldn't sell NFLX.

Kevin Simpson curiously said, "There's more value at Disney than there is at Netflix, but you can't stop this momentum. This stock will go to a thousand dollars."

Actually (keep in mind, this writer is long NFLX and has no position in DIS), we question Kevin's "more value" contention, which Frank never asked Kevin to clarify. 10 years ago, Kevin's statement is correct. The theme parks will always be there. But today, DIS is trying to reinvent cable TV channels, and NFLX is streaming and according to Josh Brown, growing revenue faster than ever, despite still charging people far less than they'd actually pay while rapidly developing all kinds of advertising levers and live sports/concert content. Kevin's assertion of "more value" is certainly debatable.

Joe notes last 4 Januarys have provided either the yearly high or low

Josh Brown early on Thursday's (12/26) Halftime Report said there are "3 land mines" in Q1, the No. 1 risk being NVDA's earnings Feb. 26.

Risk No. 2 is the dollar getting out of control, and No. 3 is "tariff stuff."

Josh and Jim Lebenthal addressed the mentality of younger investors. Jim stated, "The data is factual that a lot of younger generation particularly skewing to males are looking at the stock market as a source of gambling." But it's not about gambling, Jim said; "it has to do with an intellectual pursuit of trying to find a dollar's worth of value selling for 50 cents."

Josh noted how much Miami-area land Ken Griffin has been buying and said it comes from "people who are 27 years old and need to make 4,000% every time they place a trade."

Joe made an excellent observation about how early January, for the last 4 years, has provided either the market low (in 2021, 2023 and 2024) or high (2022), providing a blueprint for the rest of the year. Though Joe conceded it's possible that the trend "breaks" in 2025.

Josh says he was first Halftime ‘cast member’ to announce a bitcoin stake

Josh Brown on Thursday's (12/26) Halftime Report revealed, "I've invested in bitcoin since before it broke 3,000. I think I was the first cast member of Halftime Report to come on the air and say it."

Josh said he's "middle of the road" and not a "nutcase" on bitcoin and mentioned the idea of a "strategic bitcoin reserve," which seems "really likely."

Bryn Talkington though said a U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve would require congressional approval, so she gives that a "low probability." Bryn suggested "technically," bitcoin could hit $65,000 before $200,000, but she's "long-term bullish."

Seems like everyone expects stocks to be sold at some point in January

Guest host Frank Holland opened Thursday's (12/26) Halftime flagging the 10-year at 4.609% and said it's near highs last seen in May.

Frank asked Josh Brown about "trends" in the final week of trading.

Josh said he doesn't "assign" much importance to the last few trading days of the year. But Josh did say to expect seeing some big winners selling "in the first 2 weeks of the new year" in "mechanical" trades just to rebalance portfolios.

Joe Terranova curiously drew a distinction between money in the market and "people" in the market. Bryn Talkington said they should "record" and "replay" Joe's explanation for a "foundational piece of knowledge" about how "the machines run the market on a daily basis," but over the longer term, "momentum, sentiment, fundamentals and earnings, you know, drive returns," Bryn said.

Unlike Josh, Bryn said that in the final days of the year, "the direction should be higher." Bryn predicted "a lot more volatility in like the 3rd and 4th week of January" than in the first 2 weeks of the year.

Jim Lebenthal too shrugged off the importance of the last week of the year, but he said next year, "the rally should broaden."

Steve Liesman: ‘A Complete Unknown’ is a ‘terrific’ film

Bryn Talkington on Thursday's (12/26) Halftime Report indicated "the parts are greater than the sum" at DELL.

Josh Brown said he thinks MMM is only in the "2nd or 3rd inning."

Josh called SBUX a "steal" around 90, for his Final Trade. Bryn offered UBER.

Bob Pisani said buybacks in 2024 have gotten really close to $1 trillion but aren't there yet.

Bryn said she had "no expectation in any universe" that PLTR would end the year at 82; Bryn called it "the most expensive stock in the market."

Jim Lebenthal referred to the SBUX CEO as Brian "Niccols" (sic).

Steve Liesman on Power Lunch said he saw "A Complete Unknown" and called it "terrific," saying "all these music biopics, none of them put the music at the center. The music was at the center of this one." Steve said Timothée did an "unbelievable job."

Carter Worth: ‘Who the heck knows’ what return stocks will have in 2025

Mary Lago was Judge's guest on Monday's (12/23) Closing Bell and predicted ... of course ... 5-10% returns next year, because nobody in the world would predict 20%-plus (even though it's often happened recently).

As always, according to Lago, the outlook for next year looks strong but we've supposedly pulled ahead some of those gains, hence 5-10%, which Judge indicated would be something of a disappointment, especially if it's the 5% end of that range.

On Fast Money, Carter Worth was asked by Dom Chu about this subject, admitting he has "no idea" what the 2025 market return will be.

"The truth is," Worth stated, "It's a Wall Street convention, uh, that was adopted about 35 years ago to have a year-ahead price target. Who the heck knows. 12 months, vs. 13, what about 11. It's a feel-good, like a comfort blanket, someone says to you, 'I think we'll be up, uh, 10-12%.' We also know, and this is important, that every year since strategists have been tracked, every single year, they have predicted up years."

Yep.

Judge says ‘sucked’ on air (and he wasn’t talking about the Pittsburgh Steelers)

"I think momentum continues into year-end, um, in the tech trade," Rob Sechan offered at the top of Monday's (12/23) Halftime Report, but he said "from a macro standpoint, we're trimming our overweight to technology and we're adding value (snicker), cyclical value."

Rob said that he's also "guiding towards U.S. exceptionalism still."

Jim Lebenthal said he agrees with Rob's points and that Rob "could've said something" when they were in makeup, which set the crew up for a couple minutes of jokes.

Rob chortled, "You were up there for a half-hour; I was only up there for 5 minutes."

Judge told Jim, "You walked into that. You earned that one."

Jim started to make his point and Judge cut in with a chuckle, "Wait a minute — you went to makeup?"

Anyway, Jim said what's happening now is "just the early phases of a good old-fashioned correction." Jim predicted some "pent-up selling" in early January. (Because that pushes the capital gains off, which is why this April, it's so much better to pay tax on stocks sold in January 2024 than in December 2024.)

Joe Terranova outdid Judge in a big way, explaining that he wanted to ask Jim and Rob a question, and it was a fantastic question: "Owning value, is it a requirement that you have to have a correction. Because that seems like the only time that value really works. In recent memory."

Jim said "No" but admitted "it might not work here."

Jim stressed that he can find companies in energy and commodities with "single digit multiples (snicker) with free cash flow." Judge said, "That doesn't mean they're good buys. I can find a lot of stuff that's trading really cheap that's sucked this year."

Jim claimed, "I think you're making my point for me," which is that there's "potential for multi-times returns (snicker)" in those names.

Torsten was smart to do a note the day before Christmas Eve; Judge evidently had nothing else to quote (a/k/a What about Marc Chaikin’s idiotic and misleading commercial about selling NVDA that is somehow OK’d by the FCC)

Joe Terranova, who must've said "rebalance" or "rebalancing" about a hundred times on Monday's (12/23) Halftime Report, curiously said "momentum is still favoring equal-weighted strategies. Momentum is still favoring financials. Momentum is still favoring industrials."

Judge pointed out, "Momentum is still favoring financials? But it's down almost 5% in a month."

Rob Sechan chipped in, "They're stil in an uptrend, to Joe's point."

Joe at one point stated, "I think we greet the year with a tremendous amount of uncertainty." (Saying on television either that "there's so much uncertainty" in the market or that it's a "stock-picker's market" always rings up the CNBC players' card.) As a result, Joe said the market has "recalibrated" to be "bordering on skepticism."

Judge said Torsten Slok sees a "90% chance" of NVDA's earnings disappointing. Jim Lebenthal suggested that with a 31 P.E. (who knows if that's accurate), maybe such a disappointment is already priced in. Jim said maybe there will be disappointment by the end of next year, but not in the next couple of quarters.

Rob claimed he bought NVDA "when it dropped to 29 times, 99 bucks, 96 bucks."

Joe advised not "reaching" for PLTR.

Jim bought more QCOM (Zzzzzzzzz).

Joe said $85,000 is a "huge area" for bitcoin.

On Closing Bell, Judge was barking up the Torsten tree again.

What neither Julia nor Barron’s nor Joe mentioned was what happens if the rapidly collapsing Pittsburgh Steelers blow this game

Julia Boorstin on Monday's (12/23) Halftime Report said NFLX paid $150 million for its Christmas Day games. (Remember that Howard Stern said that while buffering problems may be tolerated in a Mike Tyson fight, it won't be tolerated with NFL games.) (This writer is long NFLX.)

Judge said Barron's recommends "sidelines" for NFLX, saying sports rights are expensive, the Tyson fight had glitches, and the stock's pricey. Joe Terranova said he's owned it for about a couple years, but if you don't own it now, he thinks you have to "wait," which is basically what Barron's says. But Joe said he's hanging on because he's not sure the analyst community is enthusiastic enough, and a few actually have sells.

Meanwhile, Joe rattled off all the cybersecurity names he owns, either personally or in the JOET (this writer is long CRWD), and said he believes in the space but "there's gonna be volatility."

Jim Lebenthal trimmed V and wondered "how much more can we put on the back of the consumer" (snicker).

Rob Sechan agreed with Joe that you can own CRM. Rob even said, "If you believe in Dan Ives broadening out from AI to software monetization." Judge said, "Did you have an outperform rating on Ives, is that what you're saying?" Rob said, "I love Dan Ives."

Jim said it "makes no sense" that DAL's sales forecasts for 2025 haven't budged for 9 months.

Rob said he bought BABA at the "right time," when Tepper was talking about China. Rob said he's "round-tripped it" but still thinks you can own it.

Joe called ZM one of his favorite stocks heading into 2025.

Jenny says the Dow is the ‘normal’ return this year (but she apparently hasn’t checked the AFC standings)

Friday's (12/20) Halftime Report was fairly sleepy — except when Jenny Harrington tried to explain yet again why tech stocks are gonna stop going up and why you should buy a bunch of has-been, low-P.E. stocks instead.

Jenny stated, "Almost like all of our normal clients, anyone who has any asset allocation in their portfolio, has a Dow-like return this year. You know, they're up 10%, 12%."

Judge cut in, "That's bad, relative to everything else."

Jenny said, "It's normal, Scott."

Judge said, "People don't look at that return and think it's normal, they look at it and say 'Where's our other 20% for the everything else."

Jenny insisted, "If you're up 10, 12, 13% this year, you're normal. And you know what else is up 10, 12, 13% today- this year, like all the Ivy endowments."

Judge said, "It feels like an L ... when the S&P's up 30."

Jenny said, "Across the board, if you look at what real returns are out there, they're not the S&P. ... If you're comparing yourself with S&P, and you think like, 'Oh, I'm a loser,' to your big L, you're gonna start to make really stupid decisions. And your stupid decisions right now are gonna say, 'Oh, I missed MicroStrategy, I'm gonna sell my whole portfolio ..."

Judge said, "My only point was if you're looking at the Dow as representative of really everything"-

Jenny cut in, "It's not representative of everything, but it's a normal return."

Judge continued that the Dow was down "10 straight days," and "half of the loss over those 10 days was United Health," which is why it's "not the greatest place to look as your overall market health picture."

Jenny insisted, "I'm still saying it's a representative total return number."

Jenny said if you take AVGO, TSLA and GOOGL out of the S&P, "you have a completely different return in the S&P 500." Judge said, "If you take the Chiefs and the Bills out of the NFL, you have a much different playoff picture." Jenny said, "Fine, but your sports analogies are lost on me."

Meanwhile, Stephanie Link said "it was really confusing commentary from Powell, for shore."

Kevin Simpson said he trimmed TSLA, "pure risk management." Kevin said he sold it Tuesday at the open at 470. He sold a 440 covered call expiring next Friday for $46 and was able to buy it back later in the afternoon for $20. #greatmomentsinmarkettiming

Jenny bought TRIP and made a lengthy case for it, but Stephanie suggested "patience" with this one; "their core travel business is in bad shape."

Jenny responded, "We've literally worked on it for 13 months, so that's like Step 1 of the patience."

Judge mocks Jim’s UNH buy as a ‘pick 6’

Addressing UNH to Jim Lebenthal on Thursday's (12/19) Halftime Report, Judge casually mentioned, "By the way," it's down again Thursday and "down 8%" since Jim talked of buying it last week.

"Feels like a pick-6 to me," Judge scoffed, saying it's as if Jim metaphorically was hoping to hit a receiver going deep and instead, "You laid one right out for the corner who's takin' it to the house."

"Jameis Winston style," Josh Brown added.

Jim acknowledged health care execs will be "lit up" by Congress, then said "that may or may not happen," but Jim said "this whole story is wrong," if there's a 7% denial rate, "there's 93% of claims that are approved, and a lot of those are life-saving."

Jim said this isn't going to be about tobacco companies a while back or auto execs in 2008 going to Congress. Jim stated, "I think it's absolutely a travesty that the murder of the CEO has knocked this stock down 20%."

Judge said it may be a "travesty," but the "debate" that's emerging about these companies' practices is "neither trivial nor a travesty" and is "just beginning."

Jim stressed that health insurance "is a better option than paying for it yourself." Jim said people are "basically saying" that health insurers shouldn't make a profit.

"That's not true Jim," said Steve Weiss, offering "actual facts rather than speculation," saying "what they're taking a look at is ... they have revenue cycle management companies that, what they do is, they collect on behalf of hospitals and patients for claims that were denied. ... They've taken pain out ... it's a real debate."

Josh told Jim, as far as "travesty," it's not an "act of government" that hit UNH shares, "it's people like you" who own the stock who decided to sell. Jim said sellers are outweighing buyers now because the company is in the "limelight."

Here's a debate where middle ground is the winner. Jim was too early to buy, but Judge and Weiss are mistaken to imply these current headwinds (there's always a new headwind in this space) are going on forever.

Josh Brown noted that health insurers were up Wednesday and said that's because they've been hit so hard, they're too hard to sell.

Josh sounds like he’s making the case for the original SpinCo, while Judge still won’t tell us how Mark is gonna make sure it’s ‘predator’ and not ‘prey’

Josh made the case for WBD on Thursday's (12/19) Halftime Report, saying it's "back on my radar" and explaining how David Zaslav announced a restructuring that will "take the quote-unquote bad part of the business out of the equation," which is basically the "linear TV networks," which Josh said would be packaged "into a SpinCo."

Josh said people will actually want the spinoff "because they're maximizing profitability without growth (snicker)," but the better business remains. Josh said he'll probably buy if it falls below $10.

Josh actually called MTTR "one of the worst stocks I've ever owned." It did spike in May but hasn't done much since.

Judge hectored Jim Lebenthal about CLF being a "dog." Jim protested that "if you actually do the analysis," apparently you'll find some really lucrative EBITDA that somehow should eventually get it to a $16 billion market cap (it's $5 billion now).

Judge outlined a couple football analogies, either Jim fumbling at his own 1-yard line or the opponent's 1-yard line. Jim said Al Michaels probably thinks he's the "Dieter Brock of the team."

Steve Weiss shrugged off bitcoin's slide to $98,000 and said it's a "trading tool."

Judge’s fashion comeback to Weiss didn’t really register

Judge opened Thursday's (12/19) Halftime Report saying Ed Yardeni calls the selloff a "buying opportunity," and Tom Lee is indicating the same, even possibly "back up the truck."

Josh Brown heartily agreed, saying he loves to buy dips when people are afraid that things are "too good," and while more downside can't be ruled out, "These are the types of dips you buy."

Brown said if you're "most worried about" the labor market being so strong that there won't be 3 cuts, then you have "no real problems right now." Brown said Wednesday was a big move but "not a correction."

Josh said that "what really got hit" was the Russell 2000. Judge then immediately turned to Jim Lebenthal, stating, "The small cap trade looks specious" and "does not look great."

Jim claimed "it's been back and forth all year." Jim again reiterated his point that higher rates don't really hurt small cap stocks with interest expense, rather, they create concern that higher rates "tip us into a recession," and he knows of no one calling for a recession.

Jim argued that it's "2 steps forward, 1 steps (sic) back" in this market. Josh suggested to Jim that for that "theme" to keep working, it needs "lower rates," and they won't be as low as we thought. Jim said "sure" but that he thinks the market's well-adjusted to 4½%.

Liz Young Thomas said we're entering perhaps Year 3 of a bull market, "so the chances of us having another 25 to 27% year are slim." (Actually, we wonder how Liz arrives at that. It sounds like slot-machine mentality.) Liz said we're in a "new phase" and "in-between time" where we don't know what will happen in 2025.

Steve Weiss said "yesterday was emotional" and said the market "pulled forward" some of the expected January selling. Weiss told Judge he'd describe Thursday's recovery as "actually like your wardrobe -- muted and uninspiring."

Judge responded, "Whatever I would say would pale in comparison ... to the look which (sic meant 'that') speaks for itself."

After the show was over, Tom Lee turned up on Power Lunch and indeed pronounced the selloff as "another buying opportunity." Jeff Kilburg though noted the VIX spike and said while he's got the truck "runnin'," he's "not ready to back it up yet."

At least Judge didn’t demand Jim answer his question about whether the best is behind us

Judge noted on Thursday's (12/19) Halftime Report that some momentum stocks that "rolled hard yesterday" were actually still in the red on Thursday — for all those with attention spans of zero who can't bear to see stocks down for a whole 2 days in a row.

Steve Weiss said AVGO's recent gain was "all multiple expansion."

Weiss said you want to own the megacaps, but Wednesday wasn't a big enough gift; "This is not a buying opportunity," there will be a "better" one.

Josh Brown said he wouldn't despair about MU but "wouldn't ignore it" either. Weiss said MU has great management, but great management can't always save a "commodity business." But Weiss said "now's more the time to buy it" than when it's having huge quarters.

Jim Lebenthal said he wasn't going to "minimize" VRTX's slide but he wants to "put the facts out there." Jim said "the weird thing" is that the placebo did as well as the pain drug, but this is what can happen in trials when doctors collect "subjective" data from patients. Jim said it's "not game over" and he's not selling.

Josh of courses agrees with a SHAK buy rating; it hit an all-time high earlier this month. Josh said he thinks ZM is "too cheap" and that it's using the video business to launch bigger things.

Liz Young Thomas said "we're still well above 7% in mortgage rates," which won't "encourage" transactions. Liz several times mentioned the significance of "construction unemployment (sic)" but explained when it "falls"; she either meant when "employment" falls or when "unemployment" rises.

Jeffrey Gundlach: ‘The market is clearly overbought’

On Fed day Wednesday (12/18), Jeffrey Gundlach, once again Judge's star guest of Closing Bell, suggested 2 rate cuts would be the "maximum" for 2025.

(Honestly, we're starting to wonder if there will be any. After all, Jerome Powell is all set to be Arthur Burns Part II.)

Returning to one of his favorite themes, Jeffrey stated, "The squaring of the 2-year Treasury yield and the Fed funds rate is now complete."

Jeffrey said his takeaway from the press conference is that we're "not likely to get to 2% inflation in 2025."

As for stocks? "The market is clearly overbought," Jeffrey stated.

It sounds like Jay did what Weiss said the Fed couldn’t do

In a correct call — but still a major understatement — Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (12/18) Halftime Report rather clumsily said that if we don't get a little dovishness from the Fed, "then I think positioning is in trouble."

Bill Baruch talked about Jerome Powell possibly "threading that needle" (um, that didn't happen) (this review was posted overnight Wed-Thurs) but said he's "fearful" of the Fed being either "too dovish" or "too hawkish." (The latter proved correct.)

Judge insisted they're not going to be "too dovish."

Steve Weiss doubted this will be a "hawkish cut," stating, "You can't say 'we're troubled by inflation' and still cut. That's ridiculous."

Joe and Weiss clashed over whether the market believes 4 cuts next year based on the "dot plots."

As far as rates, etc., Joe said, "I'm troubled by the homebuilders."

Weiss pounds the table for bitcoin — but wonders why anyone would buy TSLA

Steve Weiss on Wednesday's (12/18) Halftime Report said bitcoin is "purely momentum" but remains "the safest trade that I see on the board," though he conceded there could be profit-taking in January.

Judge said the "irony" is that Weiss is calling "arguably the most speculative trade within the market itself (sic last 4 words redundant)" the "safest."

Weiss said "speculation is coming to a reality" in terms of pro-crypto policies.

Weiss also assured panelists and viewers that his portfolio always has a "speculative aspect," and bitcoin is part of that.

The funny thing is, Weiss is all aboard a pure momentum trade with no use case. But he won't touch TSLA: "No way should you pay a car com- a multiple of a car company like this."

Jeffrey Gundlach on Closing Bell suggested strength in gold and bitcoin is a "harbinger of skepticism regarding the fiscal path that developed countries are on" and predicted "sideways movements" in both in the short term.

Judge fails to convince Weiss that Jensen’s next speech may kickstart NVDA

Wednesday's (12/18) Halftime Report curiously started with Bill Baruch talking about how he sold NVDA.

Bill said he last bought it at $100 (translation: He didn't take a loss) and protested that trimming it by 20% "has nothing to do with me disliking Nvidia." Bill's reason for selling was "portfolio management." He said if it finishes the week over 135, he's "very excited."

Judge told Steve Weiss that Jensen is speaking again soon. Weiss said Jensen's speeches have a "basically decreasing impact on the shares."

Judge protested that the stock has risen "quite substantially" after a couple recent Jensen speeches. Weiss conceded "you can play it" as a trading move but for holders, "the stock's traded down since those events."

Joe Terranova offered, "Last 6 months, the momentum for Nvidia is basically flat." Weiss argued, "The marginal buyer is already in there." Joe said NVDA is in a range of $10 up, $10 down.

Regarding UBER, Bill rekindles a popular expression of Pete Najarian

Judge on Wednesday's (12/18) Halftime asked Joe Terranova why PANW was down and said all CNBC could find was a price target cut on Friday, and "CrowdStrike's following suit." (This writer is long CRWD.) Joe didn't really answer the question, stating, "The momentum factor has been struggling."

Bill Baruch said he's been long TSLA and "letting it run." He said there's a "meme stock craze" in the market right now. (Well, at least there was until about 3 p.m. Wednesday afternoon.) (This review was posted overnight Wed-Thurs.)

Joe noted UBER has been falling, but, "The analyst community remains overwhelmingly bullish on Uber." Bill said "we still love the name" and said he may add more if it holds $63, but "I just don't wanna pick the bottom here."

Judge said NFLX "has been a monster" and said Morgan Stanley has upped the price target to $1,050. (This writer is long NFLX.) Steve Weiss responded by saying the same things about it he always does but said he thinks it "keeps going."

Maybe SpinCo should invest in bitcoin?

In what's becoming a bit of a broken record on the Halftime Report, Steve Weiss on Tuesday briefly joined remotely to offer the same old reasons for buying more bitcoin.

Weiss mentioned all the government tailwinds for bitcoin and said it'll go higher if Michael Saylor keeps buying it. Weiss said he still doesn't see the use case, but he's convinced that "it will keep going higher, because the momentum's going to take it there."

Judge questioned what kind of "upset" would cause bitcoin to fall. "What would that be?" Judge wondered, other than the "obvious" answer of a market pullback.

Weiss mentioned Michael Saylor buying with leverage, "potentially that's an issue," but "he's held on through, through declines." Josh Brown though suggested that the notion of how much the Trump administration is backing crypto has "gotten carried away."

The stock went up only because a lot of money went into it

Judge opened Tuesday's (12/17) sleepy Halftime Report bringing up B of A's fund manager survey (Zzzzzz), which finds "super bullish sentiment."

Josh Brown told Judge that "my mind was blown as well (snicker)" and said this reminds him of 2017, when "global synchronized growth" was heard on the show every week, according to Brown.

Judge said "American exceptionalism" seems to be the "phrase of the moment." But Kari Firestone said she's "a bit nervous" because of the "extreme" signs of bullishness; Kari said AVGO went up only "because so much money went into Broadcom."

Special guest Dubravko Lakos at Post 9 said he sees a "bit more of a broadening" next year and a chance for "laggards" to do better. Dubravko suggested the possibility of the Fed not hiking but just opening up the doors to a potential hike, at which point, "financial conditions start to tighten."

Stephanie Link told Judge, "As you know, I sold Apple because I made 40% in 4 months time." Congrats.

Josh said he's sticking with SQ and said it looks "really good" technically, though he wonders about Jack Dorsey's appearance.

Joe says bitcoin is a momentum trade like no other in his career

On Monday's (12/16) fairly quiet Halftime Report, Joe Terranova said the move in bitcoin is a "classic chase for performance" as well as "the most identifiable example of momentum I can remember in my professional (sic redundant) career on Wall Street."

Joe said if he wanted exposure to bitcoin, he would "probably turn to" the Moochmeister, Anthony Scaramucci.

Kari Firestone stated, "it's very hard for us at our firm to embrace bitcoin right now," before cautioning, "There is a lot of leverage that applies to bitcoin," which is "something we are concerned about right now."

Jim Lebenthal offered that you can make a "cogent, rational explanation" for owning Megacap Tech, not so much for bitcoin.

Amy Raskin is "underweight the Mag 7."

CLF apparently is at a 52-week low

In a curious conversation on Monday's (12/16) Halftime Report, Judge brought in Julia Boorstin to detail the rise in NFLX (this writer is long NFLX).

We were all ears. However, what Julia mentioned (live events, ad tiers and lower churn) is hardly new news and is basically mentioned every time the stock is discussed on the program, which is probably at least once a week.

Joe Terranova said the NFLX multiple is justified by the ad potential with live sports.

Meanwhile, Joe bought DOCU, DDOG and ZM. Joe said the first 2 are "trades" and the latter is more like an investment. Joe said ZM is "pivoting towards AI (snicker)."

Amy Raskin trimmed IONQ, a stock she mentioned recently that's done awesome, because ... (drum roll ... there are only 2 possible reasons) ... "just because it got to such a big percent position" (that would be Door No. 1).

Joe sold the XBI, grumbling it "hasn't worked."

Amy actually bought more AVGO. Judge tried to jab Joe about selling AVGO on Dec. 4. Joe tried to say he made 170% on it; Judge said "it's up 45% since you sold it."

Amy Raskin added to DIS, a stock which has done curiously well since the election (although Judge never mentions the correlation); Judge said Rosenblatt upped its DIS target to $135.

Jim Lebenthal said he doesn't see "any headwinds" for airline stocks.

Judge, Mel haven’t clued in viewers on Mark Lazarus’ plan to find growth at SpinCo

One of the very interesting business stories that's playing out right now is one you won't hear much about on CNBC:

The future of the channel.

Since the big news broke a month ago about CMCSA spinning off the less lucrative/desirable group of channels into their own company, we saw reports of some staff meetings.

One of the headlines was about Mr. Lazarus apparently assuring the crew at Englewood Cliffs that they'll be "predators" and not "prey."

(That's a good one for the softball team's T-shirts: The CNBC Predators.)

Honestly, about the only news of "innovation" we've seen from these stories is the same old stale corporate jargon about somehow maybe licensing daily stock market chatter to other channels (how much do NBC and MSNBC use it now) and the old standby of exec(s) saying the word "digital" about 500 times. (We haven't yet seen a story in which Mr. Lazarus says "Well the key to growth is tripling the subscribers to Jim Cramer's newsletter," but that and extending the "Shark Tank" contract seem to be CNBC's only ideas of the last decade.)

It seems like, before we hear more endless opinions about what DIS (for example) needs to do, it wouldn't hurt to hear what SpinCo should be doing in the same space.

Jim buys UNH while Aswath sells

On Friday's (12/13) Closing Bell, Aswath Damodaran told Judge he sold half of his UNH position after the incident in Manhattan. He said "there's a reckoning coming" in the space.

That was interesting, because a day earlier, on the Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal spoke of adding UNH for a trade.

Jim said he "was pretty surprised" at how much it's been down since the Manhattan incident. Jim said it's likely to make a lot of money "whether you like it or not." Jim added, "I don't believe we should be killing people if we disagree with policies."

Judge said the stock is down 12% since the shooting. However, Judge told Jim, "It feels like you're a little dismissive of the issue that has bubbled over ... of insurance company practices ... and what that could potentially mean for the long-term performance of some of these companies."

Jim said he thinks "the government's gonna get involved" and "go against United Healthcare." Josh Brown said the question is whether UNH will "proactively undergo a business model change" so as not to be the "villain" in future headlines.

Josh, Bryn express different views as to the level of interest in HOOD in sports betting

Bryn Talkington bought HOOD and said on Friday's (12/13) Halftime Report that we've seen the company "grow up" in the last couple years.

Josh Brown questioned the company's interest in gambling at the same time it's trying to be custodian for retirement accounts.

Bryn said she thinks Vlad was asked by "Andrew and Joe" about sports gambling and said "that's not what they're gonna do." Bryn predicted the retirement platform at Robinhood will be "very sticky."

‘The science had no clue what the hell they were doing during COVID’

On Friday's (12/13) Halftime Report, Josh Brown said there's a "weird dynamic" in which the stock market interprets everything that's good for TSLA as "bad for UBER."

Josh said that's a "misperception." Josh said UBER's problem is capacity, they don't have enough and want more rides on the road.

Josh called UBER a "screaming buy," and Josh and Judge agreed that Goldman's Eric Sheridan made UBER its No. 1 pick in the space with a $96 target. (This writer was long UBER for much of the year but has no position.) Josh thinks it's going to $100.

Kevin Simpson bought more CME, citing the special dividend. He also bought RTX, citing a "very low, um, price to earnings ratio." Steve Weiss bought more VRT; "You're not building data centers without these guys."

On Friday's Closing Bell, Loretta Mester said she prefers the Fed be more "data informed" rather than "data dependent."

On Fast Money, discussing RFK Jr. and vaccines, Steve Grasso stated, "Not to be political, but we were told follow the science, and the science had no clue what the hell they were doing during COVID, right. 6 feet, it was an arbitrary number. The COVID vaccine, it's gonna safeguard you, no it really doesn't safeguard you. So, that's what put a bad taste in the population." But Steve said polio is a "different beast."

Sounds like Warren sold too soon

Judge on Friday's (12/13) Halftime Report said that 12 years ago, the Mag 7 market cap was $1 trillion; today, it's $18 trillion.

Kevin Simpson's AAPL position got called away, the 10th time in 13 years that has happened.

Josh Brown pointed out that Warren Buffett "basically liquidated his position" in AAPL, "and the stock responded to that by rallying 25%."

Josh said AMZN is "clearly under accumulation" and "technically speaking ... looks as good as any stock in the S&P 500 right now."

Josh said a "huge number" of stocks have outperformed the indexes this year.

Bryn Talkington said, "I think seasonality, or the trend, is gonna definitely push through towards the inauguration."

Kevin said he got $160 for a $700 MSTR call for January 2026.

Jim irritates Judge by saying ‘Everybody stop for a second’

Early on Thursday's (12/12) Halftime Report, Jason Snipe said there's still "a lot to like" in the stock market, though expect some tax selling.

Judge quoted Barry Bannister, referring to Barry as just "Bannister," as calling the S&P "overextended" and expecting a "mid-5,000s" S&P correction.

Judge also said that BofA says the best is "probably" behind us in the stock market.

Jim Lebenthal said it "may well be true" that "the best is behind us," but it'll still be "good going forward," and so he can "get completely behind" that call.

Judge asked what Jim meant by "you say 'I could get behind that,'" and is that Jim's call.

Jim said "Yeah," that's his call, then, anticipating being cut off, stated, "Everybody stop for a second-"

Judge cut in, "No no no, I'm gonna drive the conversation."

"OK! Well then let me respond," Jim said.

"I asked you a question ... just answer the question for me, please," Judge said.

Jim pointed out that we've had "2 years in a row of 25%-plus gains" and we might only get 7-8% next year, and we might get a correction; that's fine, he said people shouldn't sell their stocks.

Jim says he hasn’t read analyst’s steel report but insists it can’t have anything new

In what could be a bit of hyperbole — or could be true — Josh Brown on Thursday's (12/12) Halftime Report said AAPL "may be the best business ever created in the history of the world."

Jim Lebenthal said he trimmed MSFT because it's a "very inviting target" as a source of funds.

Jenny Harrington claimed the Mag 7 rally is in "late stage," because, she said, "based on the multiple." Josh and Jenny sparred for a bit over Jenny's skepticism of AI, or AI multiples, or whatever.

Judge said, "The Nippon-U.S. Steel deal ain't happenin'." Jim scoffed at UBS' downgrade and first said "I haven't had a chance to read it," then said, "Really is there something new in this that we didn't know? I don't think so."

Jim said CLF is trading at a multiple "that to me says there's a lot more upside." For many years, Jim has been saying there's upside ahead for CLF; it trades currently around $10.

Stocks that peaked 2 months earlier can still have positive momentum scores, apparently

Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (12/11) Halftime Report said LLY is technically broken, and he suggested that the pharma sector spent "too much of their resources during COVID and post-COVID focusing on COVID itself, not enough investing in things like GLP-1."

Judge asked Joe, if LLY "peaked in August," why didn't the JOET get rid of it in the last rebalancing.

Joe protested, "if you pull the lens back- I mean, you're asking me now a complicated question surrounding how do we measure momentum; there was still a positive momentum score on the stock itself." Joe said there's "proprietary factors" that go into momentum scores.

Judge persisted, wondering if the "momentum was gone" after August. Joe insisted, "No, the momentum was not gone after that," claiming the momentum broke down "probably around the election."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman, back from a break, said the market rally "seems like animal spirits, just, you know, kinda running amok. ... I'm long. This is really fun. It will end, I'm sure."

It was Weiss who suggested Lina might keep her job, on Nov. 15

Judge opened Wednesday's (12/11) Halftime Report asking Rob Sechan about Megacap Tech.

Rob gave a short speech about earnings growth and said "Tesla is the only Mag 7 name projected to exhibit (snicker) meaningful earnings acceleration." Rob said because the others are projected to have deceleration, you have to be "selective" in Mag 7 stocks, a point he reiterated a few minutes later.

Joe Terranova shrugged that "we play this game of trying to pick the winner." (Well, those who constantly tout active management/stock-picking on CNBC.) Joe said "I never understood the premise that you want to ignore the Mag 7 in your portfolio."

Judge protested, "Nobody was saying get out of it," just that the "tremendous level of outperformance" won't be the same next year.

Joe said the Andrew Ferguson/FTC news was "one of the catalysts" for the Mag 7 rally.

Stephanie Link told Judge, "You know I sold Apple in late August because I made 42% in 4 months." So if Judge already knew it, apparently she just wanted to let viewers know.

Judge scowled that, "Funny that someone- some even on this program were trying to argue in the last few weeks that, uh, well, you know, there's a good chance that Lina Khan's gonna stay on. We were like, Really???"

Joe said that was an "impossibility" that "never made much sense." Joe stressed that "President Trump's scorecard is the stock market and his golf handicap."

Joe noted that Donald Trump is "visiting the New York Stock Exchange tomorrow."

On UNH, Rob said he's been "slightly underweight and trimming," though it "obviously has nothing to do with the tragedy that happened and obviously the public outrage that we've seen, uh, you know, boil to a, boil to a point around this, uh, around this tragedy." (Honestly, we don't know exactly what Rob means by "outrage" and "boil" in this instance.)

Judge mentioned the Warren-Hawley idea to split PBMs from health insurers. Rob said, "I view this as very opportunistic for somebody like Elizabeth Warren to try to, try to take advantage of this at- at this time." Judge cut in that it's a "bipartisan bill" also introduced by Josh Hawley.

Joe said you can buy NFLX at its all-time high. (This writer is long NFLX.)

Joe said TRV is at its "last line of support," which is actually 235, according to Joe.

Rob said he "regrettably" increased his ADBE position in January.

Judge said COST set a "new (sic redundant) record high." Joe said "the stock is extended," and expectations are high.

Tom Lee on Closing Bell predicted stocks finish the year "very strong." And he predicted a cut in December.

Greater chance of a market 3-peat than a Chiefs 3-peat

On Kelly Evans' The Exchange on Tuesday (12/10), Andres Garcia-Amaya said it's more likely the market has an up-20% 3-peat year in 2025 than the Chiefs have a 3-peat in February 2025.

Andres said market forecasters always predict a 10-12% up year, but rarely does the market go up within that narrow range.

Andres impressively knew that there have only been 2 NFL threepeats, both by the Packers and neither completely in the Super Bowl era.

We don’t know if momentum outperformed in late 2002 or late 2008 because Judge’s crew didn’t do any research

Judge opened Tuesday's (12/10) Halftime Report "front and center" with the supposed "momentum meltdown," gravely pointing out that the JOET on Monday had its worst day in 3 months (stop the presses) and saying Wolfe is claiming "nasty action" indicating momentum is "clearly stretched" at levels seen, in the last 30 years, only in late 2002 and late 2008.

Joe Terranova said he agrees with "stretched" and also thinks things are "extended."

Joe said during late 2002 and 2008, "The entire market at that point went down," and how do we know momentum didn't outperform at those times.

Joe stressed, "I utilize (snicker) a quality factor."

Josh Brown said it's "logical" to assess why the "great companies" with momentum suddenly sold off and maybe think about buying; the "illogical" approach is to say "they're all garbage now, next."

Judge said Krinsky is warning of a "yellow light (snicker) for risk."

Jenny Harrington offered, "We know prices are up too much on things." (As always, everybody else's stocks are overpriced.) Judge said "that needs to be debated a little bit." Jenny said, "I would say" that she knows when stocks are up too much, though Jenny admitted, "Maybe I'm wrong."

Jim Lebenthal, who wasn't officially on the panel, joined remotely and advised not bailing on ORCL, though he conceded "a miss" in earnings. Judge wondered if ORCL got caught up in AI-related "froth." Jim said the answer to that is "purely subjective."

Jim claimed the ORCL forward multiple is 28; the screen graphic said it's 26.41. If it's not even certain what the multiple is, how does anyone use that as their investment guide?

Stephanie Link mentioned how much she made in FANG and META. With the former, Judge thought viewers might not've heard it, so he actually repeated it.

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso said X is "a buy on the weakness."

Faulkner, step aside: AI is going to mine 20 years of Reddit gibberish

Judge for some reason on Monday (12/9) was fascinated enough by the Morgan Stanley upgrade of RDDT to bring in Josh Brown remotely to gush yet again about the stock.

Judge said the stock hit a record high on its new AI tool. Josh gave the same speech he's already given several times, stating, "For the first time in 20 years, search is actually up for grabs."

Judge kept asking Josh about stock price and said Morgan Stanley is thinking 200 now. Josh said, "I bought it around like a hundred or something."

Josh again stressed about Reddit, "They literally have 20 years worth of user-generated information on that site." Yes, and it's all very valuable information.

Weiss actually thinks a 7,100 price target is ‘kinda troubling’

Judge opened Monday's (12/9) Halftime Report saying Oppenheimer has gone to 7,100 for 2025.

Anastasia Amoroso told Judge, "It does sound reasonable."

Steve Weiss said it's "Wall Street's version of the game Can You Top This? So, uh, it's kinda troubling actually."

Weiss said there's "broad ignorance" of what could go wrong. Judge asked for what that is. Weiss offered "what China announced today" about rare earths in "retaliation" for Donald Trump's tariff plans. (Hmmm, we didn't have China-rare-earths at the top of our market risks list.)

Jim Lebenthal admitted, "I"m more with Steve than not," but "very clearly, the rest of this month is likely to be positive," arguing "FOMO's back" and "animal spirits are in force."

Jim said year-end targets "might as well be 7,100." However, Jim said "there may be" in the first quarter a "wake-up call" (snicker) with things like tariffs.

Anastasia said the "base case scenario" for 2025 has to be equities moving higher.

Weiss returned to one of his favorite subjects, stating, "Biden had said, and other administrations, we will project- (sic) protect Taiwan. There's been no such announcement by Trump." Weiss said this position is "critical to the global economy."

Judge mentioned the "Tepper move" of stocks related to China and asked Weiss if Tepper's recent observation on Squawk Box about how China will pump more stimulus at any weakness will be correct. Weiss said "he's been involved in BABA for a while," but those comments were "before we've gotten this heightening of geopolitical risks."

Wow, someone’s getting a large baseball salary

In what should've been a rather simple and forgettable conversation, Jim Lebenthal on Monday's (12/9) Halftime Report said ORCL is a stock you want to add to after earnings on Monday.

Jim mentioned a story about 3-4 months ago that's "actually true" about Larry Ellison sitting down with Jensen Huang "at a high-end sushi bar" and saying he really needed Blackwell chips.

Judge wondered if the restaurant was "Nobu in Malibu." Judge and Steve Weiss agreed that Larry Ellison owns it.

Moments later, Judge corrected himself: "By the way, the restaurant was in Palo Alto. Nobu. Palo Alto. He owns that too."

Weiss said ORCL's "50% multiple expansion seems, uh, seem- seems kind of wild."

Meanwhile, Judge said Cowen upgraded BX to buy with a 230 target, up from 149. Weiss said he owned CG but "sold it obviously way too soon." (Honestly, we know these asset managers have done great ... we just can't get the least bit excited about them.)

Jim touted the pipeline for VRTX. Jim claimed forward P.E. is 26.

Jim suggested CASY will go higher despite the multiple (whatever it is).

Weiss bought more VRT and shrugged off the selloff; he said it's a way to play AI.

We're hoping at some point society gets to the point where it's not fascinated by large baseball salaries. #alldayonCNBC ... Weiss even calculated what Babe Ruth's lifetime earnings would be in today's dollars.

Judge cracks that players in the crypto space could afford a ‘private jet’

On Friday's (12/6) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss said he was at "my office in Chicago" when he saw Donald Trump's appointment this week to SEC chief, which gave bitcoin a boost.

Weiss said it's "not unusual" that bitcoin would pull back from $100,000, but he now sees that level as "support."

Judge said Wolfe calls bitcoin "overdone but not over." Weiss said bitcoin has "no intrinsic value."

Jenny Harrington asked Weiss if he's playing bitcoin for a "25% return." Weiss said, "Um, I don't think I have to define it," he's playing momentum, at least until "the momentum starts to ebb."

Jenny said "I don't invest for momentum," and when she invests in a stock, she wants 8-10% a year on average for 3-5 years.

Judge then brought up DOCU. Jenny hailed the gains, even if Friday's seemed kind of outsized, and said when she bought DOCU, "It was down almost 90% from its pandemic high."

That conversation got kind of interesting when Weiss cut in to tell Jenny, "We have different investment styles. You track your clients with 8-10% returns. So that's what you do-"

"That's on the dividend portfolio," Jenny cut in.

"I'm not gettin' into that, that's not the point," Weiss said. "I look for absolute performance. ... I'm there to make money regardless of where it is. You're there saying, 'I've gotta do this; I've gotta do that.' Because that's what your clients expect. Mine have a different expectation."

Jenny mentioned a client who cashed out an "enormous portfolio," including at one of the "major wirehouses," he had a combination of growth stocks, international stocks.

"What's the point?" Weiss wondered.

Jenny said the client bought bitcoin, MicroStrategy and Palantir, "100% in that," and Jenny wondered, "What does he think he's gonna get?"

Judge said, "Private jet?"

Weiss said he "could care less" (sic meant "couldn't" care less) why someone else was buying bitcoin.

‘Too many charged-up bulls’

"It's actually been Goldilocks for a while," Steve Weiss said early on Friday's (12/6) Halftime Report, claiming it doesn't matter to the market "in the least" as to whether the Fed cuts 25 points in December.

Weiss said there's a belief there's a "guardian angel looking over the market, in business, in taxes, everything, in the Trump administration," though "issues could come up next year."

Weiss said he has positions he wants to sell or trim, but he's "not doing it until January," which is OK because next year's tax changes will be "retroactive" to the start of the year.

Jenny Harrington, though, said that rather than Goldilocks, it's a "frathouse party in the market."

Jason Snipe said there's a "chase" now but he expects Q1 to be "a little bit volatile" because of "a lot of tax selling."

Judge said Ed Yardeni thinks there may be "too many charged-up bulls."

Steve Liesman said Beth Hammack sees 1 cut by the end of January and "a few" cuts by the end of 2025.

Judge and Weiss haggled over exactly what kind of position the Fed is in; Judge concluded that the Fed has "the luxury to wait" on cuts because the economy is strong, and Weiss praised that terminology.

Jenny says UBER is making enough money to invest in dubious ventures

Judge on Friday's (12/6) Halftime Report noted that UBER is down "10% since the election" and asked Jason Snipe whether he's "sweatin'" over the stock.

Jason said no, because he thinks UBER has a "tremendous network." Judge said "some say" that "the goalposts have literally moved." Jason said he's "very aware" of that perception but he's not sure that's the case.

Jenny Harrington suggested that UBER, if it wanted to, could buy its own robotaxis. Steve Weiss said the drivers with Uber currently are responsible for paying for the cars and the upkeep, and if UBER adds robotaxis, "Who's gonna pick up those costs?"

Jenny said "I'm not suggesting that Uber wants to do that. I'm suggesting they don't." Jenny said her point is that if UBER thought robotaxis was the way to go, it could enter that space. Weiss said, "I don't think it's workable right now, robotaxis." Jenny said, "OK, that's a great point."

Jason Snipe bought more NFLX. (This writer is long NFLX.) "The spread between them and the other players is only growing," Jason said. Like this page has said countless times now, we don't think it's a case of how far ahead NFLX may be from other services which are all goosing their numbers with handout subscriptions that most people never watch; it's that NFLX alone is practically a traditional cable company within itself (without the old wire-infrastructure necessities but with the ability to charge all kinds of different levels of pricing), and we doubt all the others are ever going to reach that level.

Jenny mentioned, as she always does, when META was $79. Jenny said, "We don't wanna sell it right now because the gain is HUGE. We're looking at year-end ... like everyone else, we're kicking the can on capital gains." (Oh joy ... the thrill of delaying a tax payment from 4 months to 16 months ...)

Weiss called GXO "dead money," citing stories about "rumors" about the company being up for sale that were quickly superseded by stories about the company not being sold.

When was the last time you heard ‘NFT’ on CNBC?

The Moochmeister, Anthony Scaramucci, joined Thursday's (12/5) Halftime Report panel in the 17th minute to discuss his new bitcoin book.

Anthony called the $100,000 level for bitcoin "really just the beginning." He added, "I really do see this as an asset class."

Anthony said the current administration's approach to bitcoin is a "fundamental failure by the Democrats actually."

Josh Brown said that Barry was at Anthony's book party this week. Josh wondered if Anthony couldn't have built a "bitcoin reserve" before Michael Saylor did and "beat him to the punch."

Judge observed that Anthony has "such great perspective on it because you literally lived through the turbulence of the growing-up of this asset. You, you've seen the scammers, the shysters, the phonies, the fraudsters, in many respects," as though those characters are no longer on the scene.

Anthony said, "We have to be objective about President Trump."

He also kind of praised Gary Gensler. "Weirdly he helped the industry, because he cleaned out a lot of the dregs in the industry, if you will," Anthony said.

Anthony indicated that anyone who studies crypto will be hooked. He mentioned Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller and stated, "I know very few people that have done the homework Scott and then say 'Oh no, bitcoin's not for me.'" (Evidently, Buffett/Munger haven't done enough homework.)

Bill explains how to handle those stocks that actually go higher

On Thursday's (12/5) Halftime Report, expressing the No. 1 Problem For Halftime Report Panelists, which is having a position grow too large (No. 2 is paying the taxes on big capital gains), Bill Baruch explained that TSLA has become a "big position" in his portfolio but they've tried to manage it and "keep it outside the top 5" holdings because it "trades like a commodity." (A better way to say it is to buy whenever Weiss talks about how he's going to short it.)

Bill said the Nasdaq "officially" broke out a day earlier and that it hadn't even been above its July high. But now, Big Tech names are "setting record highs" like "dominoes."

Bill bought WDAY, which he said is shifting to a "big focus on profitability." Bill also bought ORCL; Josh Brown had bought that one under $100, but Josh lamented on Thursday that he "sold it way too soon."

Liz Young Thomas opened the show saying she thinks we "keep going for a while," even though strategists have "more muted" expectations (tip: their expectations are always muted) for 2025.

"Nobody wants to get off the ride" when it's one like this, Josh Brown said.

Josh scoffed at the description of "Trump bump" for this rally, rather, it's because "earnings expectations were too low for the quarter that was just announced."

Josh says he’s not as cynical as Kara Swisher

Josh Brown, as he always does, downplayed on Thursday's (12/5) Halftime Report the day's decline in UBER's share price, suggesting it's not related to Waymo expansion but word of FTC interest in subscription cancellation policies.

However, Brown said that's just "one more inquiry" by this administration, and, "Over the last couple years, every time you've sold on some sort of a regulatory action headline related to Uber, it's been the wrong decision."

Addressing the Jeff Bezos interview (see below), Josh said he heard Kara Swisher say, "Well Jeff just wants a space contract," but Josh isn't "as cynical as she is," rather Josh thinks Jeff is "looking at the state of regulation" and seeing things that "could potentially get done."

Josh asserted that AMZN is "on the way to 250."

Judge asserted that "tech has felt undeniably under pressure and under attack under the current administration."

Liz Young Thomas said we won't know until "midyear at best on some of this regulatory stuff."

One thing about the Bezos interview; they didn’t run any ads, so nothing for Peacock and the theme parks. #SpinCo

In recent days, a few Halftime Report panelists have mentioned obscure stocks.

Thursday (12/5), Bill Baruch said he bought CDE, which we'd never heard of before, but it reminded us of the inaugural glory days of Fast Money when Eric Bolling & Co. were tripping over each other to pick commodity stocks every day.

Bill said CDE is "headquartered in Chicago," and it bought a Mexico interest, but 60% of their mining is in the U.S., and, in the important part of the commentary, he thinks miners will outperform what Bill sees as the "upside in gold and silver."

Judge has hardly spent any time on gold in years, despite the fact it's had a great year, and really has an impressive chart since 2016.

Liz Young Thomas offered, "I like gold here," contending "the buyer of gold is different than the buyer of crypto," so she's not sure that crypto and gold are actually competitors.

The funny thing about that, a couple hours later on Closing Bell, assessing crypto and the gain in COIN since Halloween, Joe Terranova said, "This is momentum at its best" but observed that "we don't value tangible assets anymore," rather, we're into intangible assets like AI and bitcoin.

Meanwhile, on Halftime, Bill's Final Trade was bitcoin-related, the IBIT.

Bill said he used the selloff in ABBV to "increase our exposure."

Josh Brown actually made the case for JCI, saying the sector is "starting to front-run" a turn in the fundamentals. Josh also touted FERG; "probably first time ever being talked about on CNBC." He also said NET is experiencing a "breakout in progress."

Jeff Bezos: ‘You’re going to solve the problem of the national debt by making it a smaller percentage of GDP ... by growing the GDP’

The Fast Money panel on Wednesday (12/4) was needlessly full-staffed even though CNBC basically showed the excellent Sorkin-Bezos DealBook interview for the entire hour.

Sorkin's questions started off with the lack of a WaPo endorsement; that was understandable, but it nearly hopelessly bogged down the interview as Bezos said nothing different about this subject than what he has already stated.

Jeff's most interesting comments were about how national debt will only be solved by "outgrowing" it with GDP, and how he's "super optimistic" about Donald Trump's pending presidency or at least Trump's approach to regulation.

"He is calmer than he was the first time," Bezos said.

Sorkin pointed out that Donald Trump considers the press an enemy. (Trump actually doesn't consider the press, at least all of it, as his enemy, but whatever.) "I'm gonna try to talk him out of that idea," Bezos said.

Jeff said he takes Elon's assertions "at face value" that Elon won't try to use Elon's influence in government to hurt competitors. Jeff said only very rarely in a couple instances has not being cynical led to a problem. See our home page for a little more.

Judge suggests Mar-a-Lago visits are boosting stock prices

The signature statement of Wednesday's (12/4) Halftime Report came shortly into the program when Judge said he's not predicting another 30% year in tech stocks, but you have to look at CEO meetings with Donald Trump and notice "where the puck continues to go, and the rink, if you will, continues to get longer."

Judge said META is "up 7% alone since Zuckerberg went to Mar-a-Lago to have dinner with the president-elect."

Joe Terranova said that in the Mag 7, "it is clearly, clearly, Tesla and Amazon right now."

Kevin Simpson wasn't on the panel but joined remotely to say he's bought more META; he doesn't think it's overvalued "by any means."

The big earnings report of the day was CRM. Joe said you want to be in software and semis, "it's clear from SalesForce's report that AI is having a beneficial impact on earnings and lifting the valuations of these stocks."

Sarat Sethi bought CRM 2 months ago and said money is "not flowing to consumer staples or health care." He said he "wouldn't take a full position" in CRM today, but "I would definitely nibble into it today."

Shannon Saccocia agreed with Joe that you can own "both" semis and software and don't have to pick between the two.

Joe told Judge that his selling of AVGO "is not an indication that I'm seeing a deterioration" in quality or momentum.

Judge brought up APP around the 21st minute and noted it's in the JOET. Joe credited "the strategy" for buying it. Joe said if he owned it personally, he'd have a "trailing stop."

Bryn Talkington said RBLX "clearly refuted" Hindenburg's "financial claims" and has put in "meaningful levers" for parents to keep tabs on kids' activity.

On Closing Bell, "I think there's still gas in the tank," Tony Pasquariello told Judge, "into the start of next year."

NKE has a ‘stale lineup’ (at least in this footwear conversation, we didn’t have to hear Weiss jab at whatever shoes Jim’s got)

Judge on Wednesday's (12/4) Halftime Report pointed out that bitcoin remains on the doorstep of $100,000. But Bryn Talkington said that in the crypto space, "There's a tremendous amount of leverage," which Bryn thinks is "exuberant."

Bryn pointed out that HOOD has "just a fraction" of assets under management as Schwab and Fidelity have. But Bryn said HOOD is an "interesting name to watch" as it grows past the game-ification that some have associated it with. Joe Terranova said HOOD is "growing up right before our eyes."

Bryn said she thinks people have had a pairs trade going of long TSLA/short UBER, and Bryn likes UBER and thinks that pairs trade no longer "makes sense." Joe said he expects UBER momentum to "restart" but not until February. Sarat Sethi cautioned about "regulatory risk" for UBER.

Joe said he thinks APO will get to 188 and praised the space. Sarat practically gushed about the "whole sector" having a "huge amount of tailwind behind it."

Joe said FL needs "complete change in the strategy" and he thinks it's "primed for some form of activism." Joe said there are "secular challenges" for FL that affect NKE. Bryn said she agrees with Joe that there are "secular headwinds" but the space is also "incredibly cyclical" and you have to "time these trades right."

Judge pressed Bryn on NKE's "lack of innovation." Bryn said "innovation" isn't the problem; Judge insisted it's "part of the story." Bryn shrugged that NKE just has a "stale lineup."

Jim claimed on Sept. 6 that hot-rolled steel prices appeared to have ‘bottomed’; doesn’t seem like that was the case

Rather skeptically, Judge asked Jim Lebenthal on Tuesday's (12/3) Halftime Report, "Did you sell Cleveland-Cliffs yet," because if it's down (it was actually unch or up pennies when Judge spoke) when Trump announced he'll block the U.S. Steel deal, what makes Jim think it'll go up.

Jim said he hasn't sold and said he'd be "very surprised" if CLF bought "all of U.S. Steel," which apparently was Jim's way of saying that Donald Trump blocking the Nippon takeover of X probably shouldn't affect CLF's share price.

Jim asserted that it's a "long-term holding." Judge concluded that Jim is "never selling" and that Jim "trapped" himself with his comments.

"I'm not gonna give in" to Judge's "making fun of me," Jim declared, while he said Judge was "busting chops."

During this conversation, Jim told Josh Brown it wasn't Brown's turn to talk. Judge made an "our time" joke from "Fast Times," which was good, then explained it to everyone, which was weak (it wasn't clear whether Jim knew where that quote was from or not).

A lot of people are fascinated by the TGT-WMT spread (a/k/a Reversion to Mean trades are back)

Early into Tuesday's (12/3) Halftime Report, Judge said at least 2 or 3 times, "I don't remember a day in which we had this many moves from this many people (snicker)."

Well, most of those moves amounted to trimming some stocks that the panelists kept defending anyway.

Judge started by asking Josh Brown about buying SBUX. Josh thought, of course, the technical setup was good, "so I entered the trade (snicker)."

Josh cut in to the follow-up conversation to add "how great of a setup this is for both traders and investors," and he said that the RSI says "it's not yet overbought."

Josh also trimmed GOOGL, saying it's "unclear" how it will fare against "more competition AI." Jim Lebenthal though said he's "not trimming it," because he thinks the "competitive pressures" are already in the stock.

Josh Brown and Brian Belski each bought more AMZN.

Belski trimmed LLY; his shop just isn't "as overweight as we were" (ba dum bum). He bought AMD, C (snicker) and ONON, and he has "started to nibble" on TSLA. (At the end of the show, Jim made ONON his Final Trade.)

Judge said Elon's "proximity to power" is "even more, uh, elevated than some had thought it would be."

Belski said he bought TGT and threw in an "oh by the way," it's the "widest spread ever" between TGT and WMT.

Stephanie Link sold LRCX because of the "overhang with China" and used the proceeds to buy more GPS, as well as CRWD (this writer is long CRWD), citing her favorite metric: "It's still down from its highs about 7%."

Josh Brown hung a "triple digits" on SQ, though he's got a stop and isn't "wildly bullish" on the name.

Jim said AAPL has been going up only because there's been new money coming into the market; it's "simply passive flows."

Josh Brown was allowed to give a speech at the end about using stop losses and rolling them higher "as the trade continues to work."

Ah. It’s better to lose money in INTC than make money because now the taxes can be reduced.

On Monday's (12/2) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova actually said with a straight face, "The biggest disappointment in 2024, without question, is Alphabet. I think coming into 2024, everyone said, this is the year that Alphabet is finally going to catch up in terms of performance relative to its peers."

Judge, to his credit, wondered as we did, "Is this the year that everybody said that? ... I think it was the exact opposite."

Steve Weiss and Judge agreed that Brad Gerstner and others entered the year calling Alphabet a "loser."

Meanwhile, Jenny Harrington dialed in to say she found an excuse to sell INTC. Jenny said she's realized "huge capital gains this year" in other stocks and said "huge" twice and said INTC is a "tax loss harvest" that's "not unwelcome."

Joe said fundamental investors won't like it, but he claimed, "The market is becoming so much more oriented towards technicals and algorithms."

Nobody (at least not here) wants to be a downer on movie theaters. But hearing about how something broke a "Grease" financial record that occurred in 1978 gets a little old. On Fast Money, Melissa Lee got Julia Boorstin to admit that movie theater ticket sales are not adjusted for inflation. But Julia insisted on adding, "I think what's really important here" is that "popcorn sales" go up along with ticket prices.

The death of Art Cashin (who's in the photo in the upper right corner of this page) was reported in between Halftime Report and Fast Money, on Closing Bell and Closing Bell Overtime; for more details, see our home page.

Is Musk’s election spending the best investment ever?

Bryn Talkington on Monday's (12/2) Halftime Report said the "halo" between Donald Trump and Elon Musk will "continue until it doesn't."

In an interesting observation, Steve Weiss mentioned the "return" Musk got from his donations toward Trump's election in terms of how well TSLA has done since; Judge called it "the greatest ROI ever."

That's a fair statement and may well be accurate, especially when looking at TSLA's 2024 chart. However, it's fair to entertain the idea that even if Musk stayed out of politics completely, the election and his stock chart would've gone the same way regardless.

Weiss recalled way back in the year when he sparred with Bryn over his TSLA short; he claimed he "won for about 2 seconds" before that trade started to not work.

It’s apparently time to stock-pick (even though Weiss says 75% of you will come up short)

At one point on Monday's (12/2) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss stated, "It's never really easy doing this; otherwise a lot more people would be doing well. And they don't. It's 75% of managers underperforming the index every year, and it's not always the same 75%."

Evidently, that means people aren't doing a good enough job stock-picking, because on Fast Money, Savita, who sat in as a panelist for the whole program, said this is one of the "biggest years" of changes in the C-suite, and "I feel like this is telling us that we're moving into a stock-picker's market."

So despite Weiss' comment, Fast Money put text on the bottom of the screen as Savita spoke that said "SUBRAMANIAN: BUY STOCKS, NOT INDEX."

Savita claimed "The U.S. has underinvested in its own infrastructure for more than 10 years, right. Stuff is old in the U.S., and it's starting to break." That's interesting, because we're not sure we've ever once heard someone on TV — ever — claim that the U.S. has spent plenty on infrastructure.

Savita was asked to address her recent 6,666 S&P call for 2025. Savita said, while it may seem like everyone's bullish, "The truth is, there is euphoria in one specific pocket of the market, and that is megacap tech."

Someone actually had to be ‘bullied’ into selling GM

Monday's (12/2) Halftime Report had trouble getting rolling, as Joe Terranova started off with the 10-year (Zzzzzzzz).

Joe said that 1 year ago, "a 10-year Treasury was 4.20," so in terms of Treasurys, we've just had a "roller coaster ride to basically nowhere."

Judge likened the 10-year chart to a football player who runs sideways back and forth across the field and it ends up "a long run to nowhere."

Assessing the economy, Grandpa Steve Weiss said "we're still warped by the freebies from the government that keep replenishing that consumer and business pocketbook with these gimmes."

Bryn Talkington observed, "It definitely feels like we have some YOLO, uh, in the market." Bryn said she expects to see "more broadening," but she expects to see "tech continue to outperform."

Jim Lebenthal, who had a quiet show, bought more IJR; Jim said "the rally's likely to continue," though he laments, "I got kinda bullied out of General Motors; I'm not happy about it, but the facts on the ground changed."

Joe claimed, "You can find opportunities in the totality of the equity market." Jim pointed out that NVDA is not currently leading the market, rather, the semi trade "seems to be broadening."

Steve Liesman said there's a 63% chance of a December rate cut. Joe claimed "it's 50/50 right now," while Judge clarified, "it's 60/40 actually."

Weiss said he doesn't want to chase momentum in small caps. Weiss said the valuation (uh oh) of META is "dead on" with that of DE. Jim said the market is looking through DE's trough, and Jim said he doesn't want to argue with Weiss over which stock(s) to pick in this instance because it doesn't have to be an argument.

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