Josh wonders if TSLA is the next META


Steve Weiss opened Friday's (3/15) sleepy Halftime Report saying he's shorted the QQQ and SMH.

Weiss did make a joke about getting Rob Sechan "a new joke writer."

Rob just bought LULU as a "little bit of a play on the consumer." He said he chose it over NKE.

Brenda Vingiello said ADBE, if anything, is a "buying opportunity."

A day earlier, Josh Brown on Thursday's (3/14) Halftime Report noted the META low of 2022 and wondered, "Is Tesla setting up to be the next Meta."

On Thursday's Fast Money, Melissa Lee wondered, "Nobody wants to talk about Dick's?," prompting Tim Seymour and Karen Finerman to stifle laughs.



Bill’s plan to hold ARM for 3-5 years ends after a month


Well, sometimes investors can be fickle.

Bill Baruch dialed in to Wednesday's (3/13) Halftime Report to say he sold ARM the previous Friday. He told Judge that he thought the stock could see profit-taking.

Which is curious, because not even a month ago, on Feb. 16, Bill told Judge that he plans to hold the stock 3-5 years for a possible "4x."

Bill had first said on 2/9 that he bought ARM, and it was $115 that day, so we already had "Bill/ARM" penciled in as an early contender for Call of the Year.

Seems like enthusiasm for that designation may wane given the latest developments.

Bill bought more SCCO and also bought PSX.

Judge on Wednesday didn't bring up NYCB, Jim Lebenthal's new buy for his personal account, but it was up 9%.



Tables at Primola bound to be full on Wednesday night (a/k/a Kari’s shop picks curious things to research)


Judge couldn't get out of the first 30 seconds of Wednesday's (3/13) Halftime Report without mentioning "Nvidia."

Joe Terranova argued that the overall market momentum trend (or something like that) isn't changing even while contending "Nvidia right now by the way is, is literally the market."

Kari Firestone said her shop looked up, in the last 20 years, "all the stocks over 20 billion in market cap that were up more than 200%, 200%, in a 12-month period." They found that "the majority underperform the market in the following 12 months."

The conclusion, Kari said, is that "it's not a given" that NVDA or others will keep surging for 3-4 years.

OK, a couple of our own conclusions from that ... 1) It hardly seems the statistic Kari cited should affect anyone's decision to own NVDA right now. Maybe, if you somehow absolutely had to hold it for at least a year if you bought it right now, and you were leaning against, it could further nudge you in that direction. 2) Kari didn't mention any of the stocks (we're not sure how many there would be) meeting this 200%-in-12-months criteria. If the vast majority took place in 1999, well then ... 3) A lot of stocks that some people have accused of being bubbles were actually bubblicious for more than 12 months. 4) Where does bitcoin fit into all of this.

Judge claimed "It's a JOET kind of market," stating "more than a third of the holdings" are at or near all-time highs. (Seems like mathematically that should probably always be true whenever the market itself is around an all-time high.)

Joe proclaimed, "I think the trends will continue. I think this is a year about trend following." (Except a few weeks ago, he was calling for underweight Mag 7, so who knows what "trends" Joe is referring to.)

Joe actually stated, "There's big election risk surrounding semiconductors." Can't he just figure out which presidential candidate has the "momentum"?

Joe said LLY is on a "journey" to a $1 trillion market cap but he thinks it'll have "a little bit of traffic in the interim." Kari said she would not buy LLY right now. Joe said he doesn't share the "grand enthusiasm" for health care that others have.

Judge said "the news today" in DIS was a David Faber exclusive, that Jamie Dimon had "publicly" supported Iger vs. Trian. Judge said Trian released a statement suggesting JPM is merely "prioritizing its commercial relationship with Disney's management."

Joe observed, "This is by far the most compelling and interesting business story we have in front of us" (snicker). Joe said he read Peltz's thesis, "100-plus pages," and "a lot of what Nelson Peltz is saying in there makes a lot of sense." Joe said he wishes "they would come together."

Kari Firestone said of Peltz, "I think he deserves a seat on the board."

Joe said he'd rather buy DIS at $150 "with some synergy and some cooperation" between Peltz and Iger than to buy it currently at $112 in this state of affairs.

Joe said the JOET is "break-even" on DRI, but "for a Sicilian that loves Italian food, I'm not going to Olive Garden. I'm going to Primola or Bamontes living in New York."

Judge endorsed those recommendations, stating, "OK. Good stuff. I like both of those spots, glad you bring 'em up."

Joe said he's "not surprised" by Joe Biden's pending statement on the U.S. Steel takeover. Neither Joe nor Judge commented on Mr. Biden's "fair share" taxation plan.




Jim indicates Fed, Treasury, FDIC can’t let NYCB fail


On Monday, it was Karen Finerman. On Tuesday, Jim Lebenthal followed suit.

It took Judge until the 5th minute of Tuesday's (3/12) Halftime Report to talk about Joe Biden's "fair share" round of tax hikes ask Jim about what obviously was going to be the panel's biggest move, buying NYCB — "controversial to say the least" — for Jim's personal account.

Jim offered several reasons for buying it, but his last one is obviously more important than all the others combined. Jim asserted that the Fed and FDIC and Treasury know "this bank has to survive."

If that's the case, Tuesday's price is a bargain. (This writer has no position in NYCB.)

Jim stressed to Judge that "this is a speculative trade" and it's not for his clients.

Jim conceded NYCB has "some uninsured deposits" but said it has "the liquidity to, to match that." He said it has enough equity to take a 1/3 loss on its commercial real estate portfolio.

Then Jim mentioned what's obviously a big reason both he and Karen bought NYCB, that "Steve Mnuchin's no dummy." Good point; Mnuchin is one of the few, if any, Trump Cabinet success stories.

Judge questioned if the current share price of NYCB, being down from the post-Mnuchin jolt of a week ago, was a reflection of the business. Jim said he'd give himself a stop at $2.70.

Josh Brown said the reason the stock isn't higher is because of "probably something technical" and that buyers such as Jim could maybe take advantage of all the indexes kicking out the stock. Jim said maybe the stock was up Tuesday because of a reverse split to get it over $5.

Meanwhile, Jim sold NXPI because, of course, it was too big in his portfolio.

In other moves far less interesting than NYCB, Judge opened asking Josh about buying EBAY. Josh said it broke out of its 38-50 range that it's been stuck in since summer 2022. He also bought the NDAQ for a "breakout in progress," though it might need to "cool off" from its 75 RSI. He called NDAQ the "No. 1 play" on a return to capital markets.

Judge said, "I almost feel like the CPI today was a nothing burger," one of his and the show's recent favorite terms. (At some point, they'll revert back to "At the end of the day ...")




Karen buys NYCB


It was, by far, the most interesting call of the day. Especially given Judge's tiresome go-round on Nvidia.

Karen Finerman on Monday's (3/11) Fast Money discussed buying NYCB.

"This I think of as an option that now has life," Karen said, while acknowledging to a skeptical sounding Mel, "The downside here? I think- could- could it go to zero? That could happen. This deal falls apart, I don't think it will, but that could happen. ... I think that the more likely scenario is that they start to work their way out of it."

Karen has always expressed admiration for Steve Mnuchin and mentioned Mnuchin again Monday.

This is a very interesting move. It's tempting, even for those of us who nibbled a bit on FRC or SIVB a year ago at this time.




Weiss says ‘some moron’ was talking about bitcoin on Squawk Box


Monday's (3/11) Halftime opened as many episodes of Halftime do:

How's Nvidia doing?

Amy Raskin said she trimmed NVDA. "We think it's prudent to take profits," Amy said.

Jim Lebenthal said at some point NVDA's roll will stop, but not "anytime soon," as he expects people to buy the dip down 5-10%.

Judge asked Steve Weiss if they need to look for "trouble" on the list of all the surging-since-November-1st NVDA-related names like TSM, ARM and SMCI. Weiss said "some are clearly ahead of themselves" and he trimmed TSM because (of course) it was "too big of a position."

Joe Terranova said the next few weeks are "one of the more dangerous periods of 2024 for investors" (well, given that the first 2 months were awesome, so far, that's a correct statement) because there's "no new fundamental information ... and right now, the technicals are in control of the market."

Joe noted that crypto hasn't cooled off yet.

As Judge dragged this subject about 15 minutes beyond its usefulness (we knew he wouldn't talk about the Oscars but were a little surprised neither Judge nor his panel seems to care about Joe Biden's "fair share" taxation plan), Joe agreed that NVDA is the "litmus test" for the market's high fliers.

Joe insisted he's "just trying to define the environment."

Jim stressed that things outside of tech are working such as GM and C and CLF.

On Fast Money, as usual, Dan Nathan was detecting a "bubble environment."

Weiss said he's buying more bitcoin though insisting "I'm not buying the momentum," but he bought more because the U.K. "approved it for funds" and "some moron on Squawk Box talking about how you can use it to buy gold sneakers."

Judge kept hectoring Weiss that Weiss "wouldn't" be buying crypto without "renewed momentum." Weiss protested that he'd "straighten ya out" and asserted that "Every fund company in the world is rushing to market with a bitcoin product."

Weiss told Joe he wouldn't sell bitcoin down 15% "because you're still gonna have the marketing of it."

CNBC's Megan Cassella provided breaking news on the U.S. national debt.

Amy Raskin bought AXP for more "consumer exposure." She also bought NTRA and ACN, the latter to boost "tech weighting," always an exciting rationale.

Weiss sold FCX, claiming it was a fundamental reason. He bought more ADM, a stock he's been fascinated with since those accounting issues, he thinks it could get "right back to the '80s."

Joe agrees with bull calls on LLY but said the stock could be "sitting in traffic." Weiss said he owns NFLX because it's the "one real winner" in streaming (even though Jim suggested the whole space is winning in his Final Trade of DIS). Amy isn't sure that now's the time to buy NKE.

Joe said ADBE needs to "jump-start the momentum."




The CNBCfix Awards-Season
Movie Guide


Don't go into the Oscars empty-handed. This page once again is going to try to set things straight on how Hollywood and the international filmmaking community fared in 2023 just as the big prizes are handed out. Yes, we know Judge doesn't have the time to delve into the arts (even for, like, 5 minutes) on the Halftime Report, but the Halftime Report/CNBC audience is the greatest audience/viewership in the world and actually is interested in the statements being made cinematically. (Like we always say, we're here because you are.)

There are no spoilers here, but a few details for some of these films. In no way is this page predicting any Oscar winners; the Hollywood Reporter's latest odds are probably your best bet. (This critique was posted on Saturday evening, March 9, 2024.) With no further ado and in no particular order ...

Past Lives — Every film project has to answer the question, What is this movie going to show? In "Past Lives," it is people sitting in front of computers on video chats, then sitting around their apartments, then having conversations with significant others who seem to be pulled off the streets to play a significant other.

Maestro — If it can't decide whether it's a tragedy, neither can the viewers.

The Holdovers — The ultimate in victimhood. (Not only that, but it's victimhood that isn't shown, but relayed in conversation.) Who knew that elite prep schools functioned as minimum security prisons.

Anatomy of a Fall vs. The Taste of Things — Perhaps the most interesting Oscar duel has already been fought, in France, which chose the Juliette Binoche vehicle "Taste" as its Oscar International Film submission over Cannes star "Anatomy," which only ended up with a Best Picture nomination. Most critics prefer the latter, but "Anatomy" is ambiguous, and "Taste" has the foodies. "Anatomy" spends too much time talking to lawyers; "Taste" spends too much time in the kitchen.

Barbie — The Oscar winner for product placement, though everyone agrees Mattel did it right. Not the type of film that typically does well at the Oscars but, as The Most Corporate Movie in History, is probably already resetting the guidelines for corporate-arts partnerships. ("Boeing on the line to Brian DePalma ...")

Poor Things — Would've been rated NC-17 in the '90s. It's not for the squeamish, but in the latter half, as the plot gains shape, some interesting filmmaking takes place.

Air — Luckily Sonny Vaccaro threw away the tapes of the 1984 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16. Not in the Oscar hunt but probably more entertaining than a lot of those that are.

Napoleon — Admittedly, the greatest drama is in the first 10 minutes. We know the beginning, ending and middle of this story. Not a bad reminder.

American Fiction — The preview is better than the movie, which pairs a family drama with a pop culture commentary and serves wine and conference calls with each helping.

Killers of the Flower Moon — The bust of the 2023 awards crop. After getting over the bewilderment of Why Did She Marry This Guy, viewers await the killings in paint-by-number sequence. Only after about 4 hours is it time to go.

Perfect Days — If you gotta go, here's the place. Wim Wenders' greatest film is undoubtedly "Paris, Texas"; this time, he's mixed "Lost in Translation" with "Good Will Hunting" and "Groundhog Day." There are great truths here about the simple pleasures of life and having no aspirations for wealth, power, fame, but with it comes a family detachment that feels like it must be painful.

The Iron Claw — You won't hear it called on Sunday; it's not nominated for any Oscars. The filmmakers wanted to re-create a seemingly unfathomable tragedy. They inadvertently included a much stronger movie: How the children of extraordinarily successful people can feel trapped.

The Zone of Interest — The heavy favorite for the International Film Oscar, its message is the same as 1985's "Shoah" and numerous other films on this subject, but punctuated by a static visual.

The Boy and the Heron — The depiction of the "heron" is stranger than the plot, which starts off awkwardly without really righting itself.

Showing Up — This slice of life of the young arts crowd may mean something, or maybe not. Life throws all kinds of curveballs, apparently, and we just have to keep dealing with it.

Anyone But You — After this quiet hit, Sydney Sweeney is gonna be in everything.

Saltburn — The first 30 minutes, which is the school-clique drama, is the superior part of the movie. Barry Keoghan is a great actor, but "carrying" a movie like this is a big job.

The Teachers Lounge — For intensity, this classroom drama, among the most watchable films of the year, is almost on par with Adam Sandler's "Uncut Gems." As in "Anatomy of a Fall," the characters and audience have to arrive at their own truths. Some will find its conclusions less than satisfying.

Dumb Money — Not up for any Oscars. The supposed hook is that The Little Guy Who Believes in Something can slay the giants of Wall Street. Maybe every once in a while.

Oppenheimer — Perhaps the strongest awards juggernaut since "Titanic," it's the traditional War Hero Western that lifts this portrayal that could've been sunk by its Reason For the Movie, the gray, bureaucratic, booklike government backstabbing. Leaders Who Get Along With Everyone ... what a notion.



Kevin Simpson says AVGO ‘probably’ should be $900


Early into Friday's (3/8) Halftime Report, Judge told Joe Terranova that NVDA hit 950, "now it's below 9," and asked Joe, "What do you make of that?"

Joe thought he'd present a speech, stating, "What's going on in the market right now is very clear. This is about cooling off some of the really intense, strong momentum in the chip sector itself (sic last word redundant). It's about the chips ... this is healthy."

Joe noted AAPL and Alphabet were higher; he said he wouldn't bother owning Alphabet puts anymore.

Judge suggested the "rising tide" associated with AI "got lifted too much." That sounds like a Noah's Ark problem.

Judge hectored the AVGO longs/trimmers by pointing out that everyone had been saying it was a "cheaper" version of NVDA. Joe finally acknowledged that it was a "valuation alternative" (snicker).

Kevin Simpson said he'd "absolutely" be buying AVGO again if it has a significant pullback; "if it gets to 900, that's- that's probably where it should be trading." Judge said that would be an "uncomfortable drop." Simpson said, "Not for me. I sold it." Judge said, "Good point."

Shannon Saccocia suggested the Mag 7 could become the "Fab 4" or "Neo 1."

Jason Snipe said, "It was time to take a breather."

Jason called the 7% COST selloff an "overreaction."

On metals and materials, Joe said of gold, "sold it too quick," then went on to lament copper. Stephanie Link asked Joe the question that Judge for some reason didn't, what is the surge in gold telling us. Joe said it's like asking him who's going to win the World Series, he has "no clue." Stephanie said gold's gain "definitely worries me."

Jason Snipe thinks ANET "keeps going." Joe said "refiners are in a very strong position."

Have to say, kinda curious that neither Judge nor his panelists offered any thoughts on the taxation proposals heard in the State of the Union address Thursday night; we might turn to Lee Cooperman for thoughts on the "fair share."

On Fast Money, Tim Seymour got really excited about Steve Grasso's mention of "lubricants" during a gold mining discussion.



Josh says White House’s planned buyback tax hike is ‘childish’; Jim calls it ‘farcical’


CNBC's gorgeous Megan Cassella reported during Thursday's (3/7) Halftime Report that Joe Biden was going to propose increasing the stock buyback tax from 1% to 4%. However, this idea apparently didn't make it into the State of the Union speech. (This review was posted overnight Thursday-Friday.)

Josh Brown opined, "I hate when they do this because it's so childish. They have to know that- they have to know that buybacks are not the reason for the economy not doing what they want the economy to do. Surely they have to know that. It's just, I think, a shorthand to, you know, give a nod to certain groups who don't even know what a buyback is, and be like, 'We- We're on your side with this.'"

Jim Lebenthal cited GM and twice said of Biden's plan, "It's farcical."

Those were good comments by Josh and Jim; we're guessing Lee Cooperman might have something stronger.



Josh says NFLX will get the NFL in a couple years; Judge gets more Teams invites than Zoom invites


The most provocative comment from Thursday's (3/7) Halftime Report came from Josh Brown, who said NFLX's Tyson fight will be "huge" (that's not the provocative part) and predicted "I think Netflix is gonna get like the NFL in a couple of years."

Meanwhile, Josh said if you're long NVDA, the only thing to do is make sure the position doesn't get so big that it "swamps the rest of your holdings."

Jim Lebenthal admitted trimming NVDA "was actually a mistake." But Jim thinks the market is "frothy" and in a "melt-up."

Josh pointed out the SMH is up 28% on a 10-year annualized basis.

Liz Young said there's a "good amount of risk appetite." Liz said the market will continue at an "OK speed" until there are rate cuts.

Liz said we've learned that the market can go up without AAPL.

Brian Belski said the market's "a little frothy here." Belski contended that when "everybody agrees that things are positive, I wanna go the other way."

Belski trimmed JPM. He actually said there's an "opportunity for some regional banks to add scale." Josh favorably compared JPM with "basket case stocks like Citi." Jim said Josh is being "too dismissive" of the right-sizing that Jane Fraser is doing and spoke of buybacks. "Cost-cutting, big deal," Josh scoffed. Jim said the growth area is "credit cards." Belski said you can own both JPM and C.

Josh has already sold MCD, down a couple points since his buy; "it's just a stop loss" and he's already got SHAK, which he thinks is a better stock.

Josh said he sold ZM, a recent tout, after "it started to fall off," saying "it's just doing nothing."

Regarding ZM, Judge observed, "the fact that I feel like I get many more ... more Teams invites than you do for Zoom," and wondered if it means anything. Josh said that's the pressure on ZM.

Belski bought more LULU.

Josh Brown suggested watching the 450 level for UNH and cautioned, "Has maybe the story fundamentally changed?"

Judge sort of mocked Jim for not liking DE as much as the stocks in his portfolio that are doing well; Judge said that's an "obvious point."

Judge chuckled at Josh's "home team" prediction of "Oppenheimer" and Robert Downey Jr. at the Oscars. "Congrats to the parent company," Josh said.



Nick of time: Karen says NYCB was ‘less than 1 day from failure’


For reasons unclear, Judge stocked a full panel at Post 9 on Wednesday's (3/6) Halftime Report on a Fed-testimony day. Nearly the first half-hour went to that testimony, before Judge and Leslie Picker cut in with NYCB news and left Jay Powell in the dust. (And anytime you start hearing about regional banks on CNBC, you're guaranteed to hear "idiosyncratic.")

NYCB long Jenny Harrington, who was at Post 9, said "we've been working out of it" and the position is down to a "very very small amount." Jenny said "this is a management and messaging disaster" that should be a Harvard "case study," but it shouldn't "extrapolate into all regional banks."

Jenny claimed, "This is why we trim positions. This was a great stock 2 months ago. This was an amazing stock a year ago." (Actually, it really wasn't. We looked at the chart. It had a great first half of 2023. Other than that ...)

Then Jenny stated, "This share price, at a buck-86, is really- is really upsetting."

But had she been buying there, she would've had a huge gain within a couple hours. (This review was posted overnight Wednesday-Thursday.) And, as a matter of fact, seeing the shares climb Wednesday afternoon, Jenny dialed in to Closing Bell. Jenny said what's happened with new management is "extremely smart." Nevertheless, "there's just too much ambiguity," so Jenny will "continue to sell out of the stock." And then she might buy it again (yeah, right).

Also on Closing Bell, Judge had Josh Brown at Post 9 and pointed out that Josh dabbled in NYCB "about a month ago" and got out. Josh said Wednesday "this is playing with fire" and that anyone who bought the stock Wednesday at $1.70 "was probably gambling or they had inside information."

Back on Halftime, Joe Terranova said of NYCB, "I don't think this is a larger problem. I do think this is evidence that the big banks get bigger."

Bryn Talkington observed, "The 10-year's almost back at 4%."

Joe Terranova said the "generative AI story" is "overwhelming" market concerns about the Federal Reserve or the economy.

Joe credited CRWD management for not being like Palo Alto.

Because the first half of the hour went to Powell and the rest to NYCB/other market things, Judge didn't deliver a single commercial, which perhaps makes up for a day earlier when Judge botched the transition to The Exchange and viewers got 3 minutes of commercials between Final Trades and Dom Chu's appearance. Yet still, trying to fill the remaining 3 minutes of Wednesday's show, Judge turned to Jenny, who said, "Do I need to go?"

Judge said it's quite possible we're just having "2 idiosyncratic bank issues within the span of 12 months."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said she thinks NYCB was "less than 1 day from failure." Karen questioned the sudden declaration that the goodwill is "zero" and why it wasn't written down previously.

Karen also suggested "they were calling Jamie Dimon and he was like, 'No way, I'm not taking this call.'"

Karen concluded that while NYCB had a turnaround on Wednesday, it's still an argument for the big banks.

Karen said she wondered if a rate cut or a rate hike are both off the table because of the "political environment."



Everybody’s got some new slogan for the stock market that doesn’t include TSLA


As easy as it is to fault Judge for a sleepy, endless A Block go-round on AAPL on Tuesday's (3/5) Halftime, note the Fast Money crew didn't have anything better.

Among other Halftime issues, Judge was stuck in Englewood Cliffs while Carl and Sara were at Post 9; Jim Lebenthal was the only panelist able to join Judge in EC.

Judge actually claimed that AAPL's move is a "moment." Steve Kovach said "'Moment' is the exact way to put it" (snicker).

Josh Brown said if you're an "actual trader," you're already out of AAPL, but longer-term investors who have previously panicked "have been severely punished."

Jim said it's a "heavy tape" and that he's been "comfortable" owning AAPL and that it'll "find its level."

Sarat Sethi said not to trade AAPL, but hold it.

Josh said the newest stock label is the "Sensational 6" and that "Tesla's out." Josh said he's bullish S&P 500 over "Nasdaq names." (See how long that lasts.)

Jim said, to use a tennis analogy, that AI is only in the "first set" (snicker).

Jim said he bought CASY, saying he's looking for lesser-known names; he said CASY stores in the Midwest are "actually a social center; not being pejorative or making fun of anyone."

Josh said PFE is trading at an "11-year low." Josh said "COVID just absolutely wrecked this company" and that it went "all in" on Paxlovid and the vaccines, and now "nobody cares about the shots."

Bill Baruch bought DUK and joined the program remotely to discuss; "it's not a sexy buy," he's just "planting a seed" and he thinks it's beginning to control capex.

Josh said TOST has been on a "rampage" in the last month.

Judge really botched the transition to The Exchange, wrapping up Final Trades a full 3 minutes before viewers got Dom Chu. #ohwell,extracommercials



Karen buys more M


On Monday's (3/4) Fast Money, Karen Finerman said the M bidders are hoping for M to say it's up for sale and that "they aren't ultimately the buyers."

Karen said she's long M and bought more Monday, sensing "a couple more episodes" of this battle.

Karen said of the market, "It does feel frothy though, I gotta say."

Dan Nathan challenged Karen on the notion that NVDA isn't frothy. Karen responded that 25 years ago, when CSCO was "THE Nvidia of its day," it traded at nearly 400 times.

Dan wondered if everything is so "rosy" in the market, "Where are the IPOs?" Karen said, "It takes a little time." Dan said there's not even "chatter" about them.

On Judge's Closing Bell on Monday, Grandpa Malcolm Ethridge, who has scorned the stock market for about 2 years running, said it's basically just the "Magnificent 1."

Adam Parker on Closing Bell said the stock market leads GDP, and it's "telling you the economy's probably gonna be fine 6- 6-9 months from now." Adam said he's a Patriots fan.



Judge calls crypto an ‘asset class’ (as Jim continues to say it doesn’t matter if DIS overpays for Hulu by $3 billion)


Judge mentioned LLY on Monday's (3/4) Halftime Report and said it seems like Steve Weiss, who hasn't been in the name, previously picked the wrong names, UNH and HUM. Weiss agreed. Weiss said he doesn't want to "chase" LLY because there are other drugs on the market.

Joe Terranova said LLY "should be part of the Mag 7," saying he'd argue that LLY is "more relevant" than TSLA.

Weiss said the surge in bitcoin is "purely the marketing power right now of BlackRock, of Fidelity, and more to come." Joe suggested ethereum could have more room to run than bitcoin does.

Jim said the "path to profitability in streaming" (snicker) is "the future" of DIS. Jim even brought up the most pointless company asset, Hulu. Jim claimed that there's some "believers" that Iger can "monetize ESPN." (Earth to Jim: DIS' media assets are melting icebergs.)

For Final Trades, Joe said to hold on to GOOGL puts. Weiss said to buy GOOGL stock. (This writer is long GOOGL.)



Weiss says overweighting or underweighting sectors is ‘crap’


On Monday's (3/4) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss made some comments about S&P categories that this page agrees with.

Weiss said it's "a mistake to rely on S&P classification" but basically "all asset managers do."

"I choose not to do that," Weiss said, explaining he looks "bottom up" for stocks with good fundamentals. Weiss doesn't say he's overweight this or underweight that, "that's crap to me."

Judge asked Jim Lebenthal why he's buying AMAT; "why do you want it here," Judge practically sneered. Jim said he wants to be in the semiconductor capital equipment space and (of course) the multiple isn't as bad as it seems.

Judge pressed on whether Jim feels "comfortable" buying this kind of chart. Jim said yes because it's a "small" starter position.

Weiss said ASM is "underfollowed and underappreciated."

Jim said he sold TMO and mentioned, of course, the forward multiple. Joe Terranova said the JOET unloaded TMO last April.



Struggling to think up threats to the bull market, Weiss doesn’t even suggest China goin’ after Taiwan


We got excited when we saw that Monday's (3/4) Halftime Report crew included Joe "Underweight the Mag 7" Terranova, Steve Weiss and Jim Lebenthal ... only to quickly be lulled to sleep.

Jim started off saying "we're actually in a shoulder month," which apparently means we're at the end of the Q4 earnings reports and a long ways from the Q1 reports. So Jim said the macro, especially inflation numbers, will drive the market.

Judge said Deutche Bank is saying that if this week is up, it'll be 17 out of 19, the first time since 1964, and that Deutsche Bank is calling it "remarkable" and "relentless."

"I use the word 'complacent,'" Weiss said. "The market does need time to pause," Weiss stressed.

Joe agreed the market needs to pause or condolidate but pointed out TSLA, GOOGL and AAPL are all down while BAC, GS and MS are up. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Weiss admitted it's "difficult" to think up unknown snags to the market. He said hotter inflation would be a problem, "but that's not gonna happen" because China is trying to be an export economy.

Jim said "there are some cracks," that ISM was "lousy" and we're "hearing more about layoffs."

Steve Liesman reported that Raphael Bostic is concerned about "pent-up exuberance." Judge said the fact Bostic is putting the number 2 on potential cuts this year suggests he's in a "little bit more hawkish camp."

Joe again stated, "The Federal Reserve is no longer adversarial, that's all that matters, quite candidly." Joe took a jab at Jim's concerns about ISM ("has been in decline for basically the la- better part of the last year") and layoffs ("that speaks to the cost efficiency, the head count reduction that's actually benefitting stocks in the market"). Jim pushed back that what he's seeing is that "the Fed is going to be late to cuts, and when they do cuts, it's gonna be for the wrong (snicker) reason."

Judge said Savita has hiked her target to 5,400. He said "there's like 6 strategists" who have already raised targets because they're "chasing."

Jim pronounced Tony Pasquariello's last name as "Pascarelli."



Karen says male panelists on Fast Money do more talking than she does ...


We've been hearing on Fast Money for a while about Karen Finerman's regular podcast called "How She Does It." We figured, if we didn't start listening soon, they might toss us outta the union.

Immediately, a bit of a curiosity. The podcast is billed as hosted by Karen and promising each week "a conversation with a female leader — leaders in all industries — who make their own space and build their careers in unique ways."

On the most recent episode, posted Feb. 26, 2024, that female leader was Karen herself — and the host was Jean Chatzky.

No question, Karen qualifies as guest material. But she's already the host of the podcast. It's kind of like Johnny Carson asking Billy Crystal to host "The Tonight Show" so that Johnny can be the guest. Karen chuckled to Chatzky that she's "a little bit embarrassed" about being the guest of her own podcast.

Anyway. Karen freely discussed her upbringing and educational and professional background. Around the 17th minute, Chatzky asked about the Fast Money experience.

"I would bet that if I were to look at on any given show, how much time I spent talking vs. each of the men, I'm pretty confident it would be less. And, I'm just not comfortable, sort of putting my foot down and saying 'No no no, let me finish, let me finish.' But I'm getting better at it. And, the other thing is, the show is better when there's a little tension and a little pushback," Karen explained.

(Honestly, when you compare what Tim Seymour says with what this page, or any page, says, rest assured everyone else is going to be "less.")



Karen says her best investment ever (in terms of finance) is bitcoin ...


Karen Finerman's "How She Does It" podcast includes a "Lightning Round" (yes, same name as a feature associated with another CNBCer) or "Would You Rather" (yes, same name as a Fast Money feature), according to guest host Jean Chatzky, who used both terms when interviewing Karen herself.

In the process, there was quite a revelation.

Asked for her best investment ever, Karen admitted, "I'm embarrassed to say," but it's bitcoin; "it's so not my kind of thing, and it went berserk."

So what does that tell you about Wall Street training and experience and all of those things people study at Wharton. Someone trained in risk-arbitrage makes their biggest haul by following the Winklevi.

There weren't many other revelations about Fast Money (we'll skip Chatzky's curious comment about reasons she tunes in to the show), but Karen said she didn't think much of Elon Musk until reading the bio, but it seems he had a "really difficult childhood," and the whole package has been a net-net to society, so "I have changed my mind about Elon."

We learned that Chatzky and Finerman are involved in a project called "InvestingFixx." Which is a great name/branding.




Wendy had her own office at 21 (but made her best investment from a bathroom discovery)


Another interview subject in the Karen Finerman podcast series "How She Does It" is Karen's sister Wendy Finerman, who years ago brought the "Forrest Gump" best picture Oscar to the Nasdaq marketsite for an appearance (by the statue, not Wendy) on CNBC's Fast Money.

Scanning over the list of Karen's interview subjects, we noticed the title of the Wendy interview is "Making America's Most Iconic Movies With Wendy Finerman."

Hmmmmm ... (Uh oh ... This one's gonna get us tossed outta the union) ... (#gulp) (#sigh) ... including the words "America's Most" in that title seems a bit .... hmmm ... grandiose.

(Also, "iconic" is way overused, how about just "famous.")

Karen introduced Wendy saying Wendy "has created some of the most loved and iconic movies of our era, or any era."

An interesting term there is "created."

Forrest Gump was a 1986 novel by Winston Groom. It became a movie directed by Robert Zemeckis and starring Tom Hanks and including an elite crew. The Wikipedia page for "Forrest Gump" says there was a bidding war for the film adaptation, which Wendy was able to win by teaming with Steve Tisch ("Risky Business," only person with an Oscar and a Super Bowl ring) and "joining forces with Warner Bros., where Finerman's husband Mark Canton was president of production." Nowhere in the How She Does It podcast is there a mention of a husband running a Hollywood studio.

One of the curious things about the podcast is that the subjects tend to have had outsized success and their careers are going to be relevant mostly to other already 1-percenters. Karen Finerman didn't ask Wendy "How many hours did you work daily at age 21 and how many hours do you work daily now," but if she had, chances are, that number is going to be higher than most people (even aspirational ones) are willing to commit to.

Wendy says she was fielding offers at Wharton and "along came this job at The Movie Channel," and 4 days out of college, she was "anointed the chief financial analyst for The Movie Channel," which probably doesn't happen for everyone. "I had my own office, 21 ... nobody else did." Try duplicating that career arc. (First, it's more likely you can do academics at the level of Wharton if you have parents who already attended Wharton.)

Karen noted in a question that many people find it "impossible" to break into the movie business. Wendy never answered the question, except to say she was asked by one interviewer to name the most "iconic thing in cinema," and she mentioned Rosebud of "Citizen Kane," which happened to be that particular interviewer's favorite movie. (So, there's your luck factor.)

Karen, surprisingly, never asked Wendy exactly what a producer does. We assume it varies by production and level of interest, financially and otherwise, but that in general, they put the pieces in place for the movie to reach completion and be marketed. But, it would be better to hear that from Wendy. We did get this anecdote, "without sounding boastful," that according to Wendy, one director told another director, "There is not a better producer in the world than Wendy."

Is any part of the job like what Tim Robbins does in "The Player"? How does Wendy spot talent, or does she (as is implied industrywide in "The Player") mostly cull popular books for production ideas.

Karen could've asked Wendy, "What does 'Forrest Gump' or 'The Devil Wears Prada' mean to you and/or what should it mean to viewers." (We would've settled for Wendy's opinion on "Road House.") If there is a beef about Wendy's career, it's that this interview seemed to rate movie success by the bottom line and never did she mention being moved by the magic of cinema or being inspired by something that didn't make a dime or win an award.

Karen's follow-through isn't always crisp. In an early discussion about a family tragedy, neither Karen nor Wendy explains why Wendy was apparently compelled to assume parenting roles. Wendy is also the oldest child in the family. Is there something to the perceived dynamic of first children being more driven?

Karen bluntly asked Wendy if it's "getting any better" for women in Hollywood. Yes, Wendy said, without much detail. Does Wendy employ more women than the industry average or have more women in executive-type positions? Is the average pay for women in Hollywood rising fast or are women winning more awards?

Wendy refused to name the greatest actress she has worked with besides Meryl Streep. That's called not wanting to offend anyone, but it's also curious that in a podcast called How She Does It, only one actress can be singled out.

There was a curious conversation about comments from men. Karen relayed that she once heard a male say, "Listen, let me tell ya what women want." Karen said it was "so ridiculous and not shocking."

Wendy said a man once was challenging her about her own experience of marketing to women. She said she was thinking, but didn't say, "Do you know who you're talking to."

OK, let's assume that Karen and Wendy heard these comments from a couple of cretins. Is it wrong, in general, for a male to offer an opinion on something that might appeal to women? If he's a jerk about it, yes, totally, we get why that's wrong. But if his job is marketing movies or TV productions and he has experience with steep divides among gender or other factors, isn't that knowledge useful on some level? Don't some males make women's clothing, and vice versa? Would it be just as "ridiculous" for a woman to say, "I think such and such idea might appeal to male customers"?

Wendy described her 2 best investments as a used car and a bathroom mirror at an L.A. gallery. Wendy said the worst investment she ever made was not a movie project that fizzled, but her son's car.




Frank brings up yet another new name for stock market leaders


In what's becoming a monthly parlor game of terminology, guest host Frank Holland sought to redefine on Friday's (3/1) Halftime Report actually what's been leading the market.

It happened after Steve Weiss said, "This is just not normal to have the market going up every day on a relatively narrow move." Weiss claimed "there are other things that are working."

Frank said, "Year to date, the S&P gains, 57% coming from the Fantastic Four, 32% coming from Nvidia alone."

Weiss protested, "It depends how you parse the data (pronounced DAY-ta)."

Jim Lebenthal said there are "good deals" (snicker) outside of tech.

Weiss said he did "shave a little bit of META."



Bryn says recent returns don’t make a bubble, it takes 100% over 3 years


Guest host Frank Holland on Friday's (3/1) Halftime Report read part of an optimistic note by Citi's Dirk Willer that says the "bubble is not (yet) overly large."

Frank said the note was "almost so bullish, it's almost contrary at this point."

Bryn said "bubble territory" is historically, at least in 1987, 1998 and 2021, accompanied by rolling 3-year returns around 100%. "Right now, the 3-year average annual return for the S&P is 10%, so 30% cumulative, so we're not even remote- remotely close to those time periods."

Bryn said for long-term investing, "I still love the Q's."

Frank even quoted Mike Wilson (we thought he had a new job) suggesting large caps outperforming small caps.

Frank also said Torsten Slok predicts no rate cuts in 2024. Jim Lebenthal touted Torsten as "must reading" daily, but Jim thinks the Fed will cut.




Weiss thinks people buy options because they’re too cheap to buy 4-digit stocks


On Friday's (3/1) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss said NVDA was up Friday because of DELL, and that DELL was up before earnings because of NVDA, which he calls a "positive ping-pong effect" and a "feeding frenzy."

But he still thinks "momentum's there."

Weiss took issue with guest host Frank Holland saying DELL had "a really good quarter." Weiss said they only "came in line on revenue and they lowered guidance for the first quarter next year." So he wondered how it was increasing market cap by a third on that report.

Bryn Talkington, on the other hand, called DELL "very underowned."

Bryn said "the call-buying in this market right now is very frenzied and very high."

Moments later, Weiss stated, "Yes, options are driving a lot of 'em, but you know why people are buying options? Because they don't wanna buy a thousand-dollar stock. They, they still don't get the math, that if you put a thousand dollars into a thousand-dollar stock, you get the same repur- returns if you buy 10 shares of a hundred-dollar stock. So until the people start getting smarter on that, you know, they'll keep driving options markets."

Weiss said he made a good sale in VRT, "and then what happened — Nvidia reported. ... It's incestuous what's going on."

Meanwhile, Weiss said of NYCB, "we're gonna see more of these problems." Weiss would avoid regional banks; so would Bryn, who thinks they'll be in the "penalty box" for not just this year, but a few years.

Bryn isn't sure China can get out of its slump; she thinks it'll "take years."

Jim Lebenthal said he's bullish on energy but noted natural gas is in a "breathtaking" bear market.

Weiss said he's going to keep "playing momentum" in bitcoin despite the fact he doesn't see "any utility whatsoever."



Phil LeBeau reports that BYD appears to be a popular car in Chile


Karen Finerman, who a week ago celebrated a birthday and is now creeping up into the higher end of a 3-handle, on Thursday's (2/29) Fast Money said of NYCB's latest news/myriad issues, "This can't be good for so many reasons."

In the category of #zerocreditforasoftlanding, Grandpa Guy Adami, who blames the Federal Reserve for EVERYTHING (including the San Francisco 49ers'/Christian McCaffrey's inability to achieve a first down from the Chiefs' 35 that would've virtually sealed the game), was first citing Stevie Ray Vaughan, then said of NYCB, "They're not gonna get rescued. ... The unintended consequences of zero interest rates for a long period of time, it's made places like this extraordinarily lazy, and they don't need any internal controls because there's nothing to control. So this is a flaw I think of all this central bank sort of largess. And I don't think- this might be the first. It's not gonna be the last."

(Sure. They were dying to lower rates to ZIRP and laughing in their meetings about how nothing bad was going to happen many years later.)

Karen responded, "I take a little bit of issue with that. I think this is idiosyncratic to them ... I don't think, uh, that this will be a contagion. I think it will be contained."

Near the end of the show, Guy Adami repeated his corporate-lazy-ZIRP theory but actually stated it was "for the last time." So maybe we won't have to hear it anymore.

In a developing situation that hasn't gotten much attention, CBNC's Phil LeBeau reported from Santiago, Chile, and pointed out how China has ramped up car exports and how they're entering certain foreign markets and how much cheaper BYD cars are than Toyota and Ford and GM for similar models — and he also got a couple actual Chilean buyers on camera saying they like the Chinese cars. (Neither of those shoppers declared that GM stock is DIRT. CHEAP.)

On Closing Bell, Judge asked Aswath Damodaran about Ray Dalio's comment about stocks not looking "bubbly." As for the term "bubble," Aswath said, "I've always been uncomfortable with that word because it suggests that the people who are buying stocks are shallow and that the people making these statements are deep thinkers."



‘Great tape’ — sounds like panelists and Judge are taking a victory lap for the year


As February 2024 concluded, Judge opened Thursday's (2/29) Halftime Report saying the "bear case was dealt a blow" this month.

Josh Brown noted the month's gains and said, "Probablistically (sic), it does augur well, uh, for the remainder of the year."

Judge stated, "Let's call this the month that the rally broadened."

Perhaps putting the brakes on such sentiment, Kari Firestone offered, "You still have 4 stocks accounting for half of the market gain so far this year." She said those are NVDA, AMZN, MSFT and META.

But Josh said "the XLI has the highest RSI in the entire stock market." Brown said if the industrials are the strongest stocks and financials are 3rd, "that's a great tape."

Judge noted people expressing concerns about rising credit card delinquencies; "I keep hearing that bear case, made yesterday." Josh said delinquencies "were ridiculously low for 3 years" and they've only ticked higher "to a normal level."

Kari said CRM did hit the numbers but the guidance "was not quite as strong on the revenue side as people wanted," and when have you ever heard that after an earnings report.

Josh said that in the 2nd half of the year, companies are going to be talking about "ROI from AI."

Bill Baruch called in to say he initiated a CRM position in the morning. He said Marc Benioff sounded "extremely excited about things" talking to Jim Cramer. Bill thinks CRM "could really start to run" if it breaks out past its old high.

Bill also said he bought more AMD and NVDA and WDC, making a "very very tactical" move.

Stephanie Link, who owned SNOW going into Wednesday's print and who wasn't on Thursday's show but beamed in remotely, claimed "I only bought a small position ... I will be adding to it when I can."

Invoking one of Joe Terranova's longtime favorite terms (Joe wasn't on Thursday's show; he was booked for Closing Bell), Stephanie said "the company's in the penalty box at this point in time (sic last 5 words redundant)" and might be there for a couple of quarters.

Judge said Brad Gerstner sounds "a little frustrated" by the SNOW quarter. Judge said his interpretation of Brad's frustration is that "he thinks it's too conservative."

Josh said he thinks SNOW was having an "overdone selloff" but he's not "racing" to buy it.

We thought Judge had probably forgotten by now, but on Thursday, he brought up panelists' contrarian picks from the beginning of the year, all of which are having a good month. Josh Brown made a joke (we think) about "my brilliance knows no bounds" and attributed the KWEB's gains to stocks that had been "completely washed out" entering the year. Kari Firestone said she thinks KMX has a "long way to go" as automotive inventories have improved. Shannon Saccocia had picked commodities, which are never really much of a contrarian trade.



If Judge didn’t spend the first 19 minutes talking about no-news AAPL, then yes, the broadening would get more respect


Joe Terranova opened Wednesday's (2/28) Halftime Report saying AAPL hasn't laid out a plan yet for AI; that's what we need to hear at the WWDC (which is only 4 months away).

Judge said that sounds like AAPL will be "dead money until the summer."

"June isn't that long from here," offered Kari Firestone.

Steve Weiss called AAPL a "tired stock." He added, "I do think the multiple compresses."

Addressing Joe's point, Weiss said we still don't know the "business use case" for AI in the iPhone.

Steve Kovach at Englewood Cliffs rattled off a list of AAPL headwinds, including the "huge fight (snicker) going on between AAPL and its developer base."

But Kovach said "every time you take a photo with your iPhone, there is AI happening." Joe said he agrees with "all" of what Steve said, but AAPL still has to "communicate some form of an AI strategy" in June.

On GOOGL, Judge said Brad Gerstner is wondering whether Sundar is "the guy to lead this company in the next frontier." (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Kari Firestone conceded that GOOGL "botched" Gemini AI but thinks they can recover. Steve Weiss said the AI rollout was a "complete bust." But he thinks it's only a "temporary setback" that GOOGL can fix because it's got enough money to throw at problems.

After that megacap tech go-round, Judge wondered if the broadening of the market in the last month hasn't gotten the "respect" it deserves. (That could've been a chance for Joe to jump in with is underweight-Mag 7 positioning, but it didn't happen.) Steve Weiss said the divergence had already been narrowing until NVDA's report.

Kari Firestone said UNH may have government headwinds for another year.

Joe said CRM is trying to get through its November 2021 high of 311; if it has a bad earnings report, we'd have a "nasty setup" of a double top looming over the stock.

Weiss started talking up how great bitcoin has been doing recently — indeed, a great call, although this page isn't recommending anyone buy it (that's Anthony Scaramucci's job) — then got cut off by breaking news of Mitch McConnell. That brought a rare Halftime hit from CNBC's Emily Wilkins, who noted Mitch will serve out the rest of his term.

Joe's Final Trade was, if you're long Alphabet (this writer is long GOOGL), "only if you are long," to buy some puts.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman suggested Alphabet is "ripe for an activist." Karen said "first of all, it's cheap," with a "below 20" multiple, then mentioned "multiple missteps" with the "terrible" AI rollout. Karen suggested "somebody like a Bill Ackman" might be interested.

Karen actually said with a straight face that Ruth Porat, who 1) was not an activist investor but new hire and 2) was paid gobs of money to run Alphabet's quarterly conference calls that Larry and Sergey wanted nothing to do with, "really shook things up."




Josh says Rob is ‘absolutely backwards’ on megacap tech expectations


It turns out that Joe Terranova's newfound underweight-Mag 7 positioning apparently has a backer in Josh Brown.

Judge asked Rob Sechan early in Tuesday's (2/27) Halftime Report if the S&P can get to 5,300 "without relying on, on Big Tech to take you there."

Rob said that "you need tech, and it's gonna continue to have that momentum." Rob said we won't see a "massive broadening out," but something selective.

Josh stated, "I'm on the complete opposite side unfortunately as my pal Rob Sechan. I think he has this absolutely backwards. I want to be in anything but megacap tech at this current (sic redundant) moment. Uh, those stocks are not leading, and as they bleed market cap, which we watched Alphabet bleed market cap this week, the money is going elsewhere ... everywhere else."

Josh then rattled off a list of classic non-tech names that are at or near all-time highs.

"Josh we're saying the same thing though," Rob protested. "You're naming selective stocks in other sectors that are outperforming. You're not naming the entire sector."

"The biggest stocks. The biggest stocks," Brown said.

"No question. Because the biggest names have the less exposure to high cost of financing, they have the moats. Of course it's the same message," Rob insisted.

Brown suggested looking at AJG; "it looks like it's doing AI!"



Josh says chance of outperforming S&P 500 over 10 years is almost ‘nonexistent’


In a discussion about active vs. passive management (these come around about once a quarter) (viewer tip: all the panelists on the show practice active management) on Tuesday's (2/27) Halftime Report, Josh Brown said some managers will outperform but that knowing who those managers are for a 5-year period is basically impossible, and that if you look at the ones who are tops for the previous 5 years, they have an equal chance of being among the bottom for the next 5 years, so there's a "very slim chance that anyone can have performance that beats the S&P over 10 years. It almost is nonexistent."

Josh summarized the ZM and its "very narrow beat"; he said growth was 3% but the market was expecting flat. Brown said "nobody wants to hear this," but "they are, right under everyone's noses, transforming into an enterprise business." Brown said he continues to like the setup and considers it "value tech" (snicker).

Jason Snipe bought CAT, which seems to be getting a lot of kudos lately.

Rob Sechan seems to think LLY may be getting extended; "one of our next moves is probably to trim the name."

Santoli's Midday Word came a few minutes later than usual. He said we haven't had a 3% pullback in the S&P in 4 months.

On Fast Money, back from vacation (and celebrating a birthday last week) (not a day over 42), Karen Finerman said M's moves are "all about the, um, the proxy fight. And I think that the bidder has to bump before the meeting." Karen is interested in Elliott building a stake in ETSY.




Jamie Dimon puts soft landing odds around 35-40% (as Judge is shut out of asking questions)


Jamie Dimon, interviewed by Leslie Picker in Miami at the top of Monday's (2/26) Halftime Report, said markets can "change their mind pretty quickly" but "confidence is up" and, at least in high yield, "spreads are getting close to historical lows," so for now, "so far so good."

Jamie said that some people have apparently put the odds of a "soft landing" at 70-80%, but "I give it half that." He said he's "kinda cautious about everything."

Leslie asked about commercial real estate. Jamie said the consumer market is "far bigger" than commercial, "so what happened in '07 or '08, this isn't that kind of thing."

On offices, "They're worth less because of interest rates," which Jamie said is "kind of a known thing," and while a recession would make it worse, if we don't have a recession, "I think most people will be able to muddle through this."

Jamie said the problems associated with SIVB and FRC and NYCB are "kinda idiosyncratic" and "very local."

Jamie called the Capital One-Discover deal "good for competition." But he added, "The debit network may have an unfair advantage versus us. Of course I have a problem with that. You know like, why should they be allowed to price debit different than we can price debit just because of a law that was passed."

After the 17-minute interview in which Judge didn't get any questions, Judge said, "I don't know if I'd go full-on ebullient for- for Jamie, but, I mean, his tone is pretty good."

Joe Terranova said Jamie "used the word 'confident,' uh multiple times; I think that's important."

Jim Lebenthal said it "may catch people by surprise," but financials have rallied this year, and YTD, the sector is "slightly ahead of the S&P 500." Jim thinks that outperformance "is gonna continue."

Jim said his enthusiasm for financials gets an "asterisk" because he's leaving out regional banks, not because he's "overly negative" but because commercial real estate can't be ignored.

Josh Brown bluntly stated, "Banks are terrible investments, almost always. They can make for good trades." But he said "JPMorgan is almost a thing apart from all of its peers." Josh pointed out how JPM (650%) has outperformed the S&P (476%) and especially the XLF (126%) since Jamie took over.

So Josh said, if you want to buy a money-center bank, "There's 1 stock to choose from."



Josh says Alphabet employees too busy using software to solve social and racial problems


On Monday's (2/26) Halftime Report, Judge got a stark statement from Josh Brown on the state of things at Alphabet.

Brown bluntly stated, "There's a problem at Alphabet. They did way too much hiring. They imported a virus. They've got people running around there, apparently at every level, who think it's their job to, uh, heal social injustices and try to uh fix problems in, in, socio-economic problems and racial issues and gender-equality issues. They think they're supposed to be like using software products to heal these- these wounds that in some cases are thousands of years been, been afflicting the human race."

Joe Terranova said people are questioning whether Alphabet can be a "reliable source" in the AI sector/field/universe (whatever it supposedly is). (This writer is long GOOGL.)

(Judge didn't ask Joe about his newfound underweight Mag 7 positioning (see below), which is fine, as it saved us a half-hour of transcribing commentary of people talking over each other.)

Jim Lebenthal said you can own Alphabet and add to it.

Right after the A Block, Judge asked Josh about buying MCD. "This is a trade," Brown said, adding he likes the "technical setup." Then he went on to say he's actually looking at "both a fundamental and a technical perspective," citing loyalty program user growth and commandeering more of the delivery business onto MCD's own apps.

Josh said MCD peaked around summer 2023 and has been consolidating since; he thinks it'll "punch through," and when that happens, there will probably be "not many sellers left."

Joe said MCD is a "very strong trade." Joe suggested Josh may be ordering "a Big Mac and Quarter-Pounder" that'll get delivered "relatively quickly." Josh cut in, "Salad."

Josh Brown made not only big pronouncements about Alphabet but also Berkshire Hathaway. Josh said it's arguably never been a better time to be a Berkshire shareholder; "it's trading like an AI stock," though he conceded there "wasn't really a lot new" in Warren Buffettt's letter, and "how many times can you write the same thing" anyway.

Jim Lebenthal said of Berkshire buying something, "The tone was definitely, Don't expect to see a big deal anytime soon."

In the CNBC News Update, CNBC's gorgeous Pippa Stevens said "grocery train (sic) Kroger."



The term ‘Magnificent 7’ only started appearing on this page 8 months ago


Before we get into Joe Terranova's head-scratching, mind-numbing parsing about what his CURRENT stock market outlook actually is and what really happened in the Super Bowl, we were inspired to do a little research (snicker) on this site.

The first time the term "Magnificent 7" (or "Mag 7") appeared on this page was June 23, 2023, when guest host Frank Holland told Jim Lebenthal, "A lot of people think this whole thing's a bubble."

Jim asked for a definition of "this thing." Frank suggested it's the "Magnificent 7."

On Friday's (2/23) Fast Money, Bonawyn Eison mentioned the "Mag 5 is it now, Mag 6?"




Judge admits Joe’s Closing Bell beef with Adam Parker, in which Joe suddenly claims the Mag 7 will underperform the market, left Judge ‘completely perplexed’


Judge on Friday's (2/23) Halftime Report didn't actually waste a whole lot of time before addressing the strange megacap tech protest that Joe Terranova made a day earlier to Adam Parker on Closing Bell.

(See below for our recap. We were so excited that Judge mentioned the Super Bowl during that conversation, we sorta buried the lede. Joe scoffed at Adam's advice to have "at least" 25% exposure to the Mag 7, arguing the Mag 7 really aren't that great except for 2 stocks (which Joe also seems to think are extended) and that it's only the "AI halo" that's driving the market. "I disagree that the Mag 7 are the focal point," Joe claimed.)

On Friday, Judge, told Joe, "You made the argument to me yesterday which I found, uh, admittedly confusing, uh, on Closing Bell, that you wouldn't advise our viewers to be market weight the megacap stocks. Those are, what 25-ish% of the S&P, that you would advise them to be underweight. That seems counter to every argument that you've made about where the market is and where you think it's going. So, if you can enlighten us, because you left me completely perplexed with, with that description, to be quite frank."

Joe responded, "What I said to you yesterday was that you can have an equal-weighted strategy and outperform. And, there's evidence to that, you can see so far year-to-date-"

"But now you're- OK, without talking your own book, for a minute, OK," Judge said, "... with all due respect, I want you, again- you've made the case that the megacaps are going to outperform, you did not see the broadening in the market necessarily happening, but then you're advising our viewers, well don't even be market weight the megacaps."

"Because there's concentration risk within the concentration itself," Joe said, explaining the market's "performance" since January 2022 has come from META and NVDA "and the semis."

"It has not- It has not come from Apple. It has not come from Alphabet. It has not come from Amazon. It has not come from Tesla. So when someone says 'you must own the megacaps at market-cap weight ... or more, understand 1 thing: The megatap (sic)- the megacaps in totality haven't done the heavy lifting for you," Joe pushed back.

Joe continued, "You used the Chiefs analogy. The Chiefs win the Super Bowl yesterday (sic) (meant that Judge mentioned yesterday the Chiefs had won the Super Bowl, not that the game was Thursday). You know why the Chiefs won the Super Bowl? Patrick Mahomes was the reason that the Chiefs won the Super Bowl in overtime. Nvidia is the Patrick Mahomes. If you take Patrick Mahomes off the field, the Chiefs aren't winning the Super Bowl."

"I don't agree with that," Steve Weiss tried to cut in, but Joe demanded, "Let me finish. Nvidia. Nvidia is the entire story of where the performance has been. And that's why I say you have concentration risk within the concentration itself."

Judge said, "It is not the whole story of the, the performance. ... If you look at the S&P's outperformance last year, it was because of all of the megacaps."

"You're picking a period of time," Joe said, embarking on some retro trading. "What about 2022 Scott?"

"All the megacaps were down," Judge said.

"We're picking a period of time. We're saying 2023 works for your narrative. Let's pull the lens back-" Joe said.

"What do you mean? I'm speaking of the narrative of the market- that the market's given me. The megacaps had an awful 2022. What did the S&P do in 2022. Had an awful year. The megacaps had a great 2023. What did the S&P do in 2023. It had a great year.

"Marry those 2-" Joe started to say.

"Since November 1st, OK, Microsoft's only up 21%. Is that so terrible? Since November 1st? It's underperformed Nvidia, it's underperformed some of the SMH stocks. So what? So what?" Judge said.

"So the S&P's up 20% since November 1st. What's Apple done since November 1st. It's up 5%. What's, what's Alphabet done," Joe said.

"You pick Apple out of a hat and say OK, it's the one ... that hasn't really worked that well," Judge said.

"You can't cherry pick it!" Joe said, even though that's exactly what Joe was doing. "Since November 1st you have 4 of the megacaps that are underperforming the S&P 500," and then Joe really got retro, stating, "I just don't wanna look at it from November 1st (which is what he was just doing). I wanna look at it from January 1st of 2022. I wanna encompass the entirety of the Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle. And if you do that, the S&P is up 6%. And 4 of the names have underperformed the S&P! So really all you have is extreme outperformance from Nvidia. En- Extreme outperformance from Meta catching up because it fell to $88 in November of 2022!"

OK, quick timeout to summarize this conversation ... Judge questioned Joe's advice that viewers be underweight the Mag 7. Judge said the Mag 7 has been guiding the market for a couple years. Joe's claiming the Mag 7, other than 2 stocks, isn't anything great anyway, and 1 of the 2 great stocks was simply playing catch-up from November 2022. Or in other words, you shouldn't buy them because they're lagging, but you should've bought META in December 2022.

Joe is suddenly down on the Mag 7 despite saying Jan. 8 that we don't have to "keep trying to pretend and play this game that the Mag 7 are not gonna matter in 2024," and on Jan. 10, Judge asked Joe, "What are you telling me, that 2024 is gonna be 2023 all over again?," and Joe conceded, "That's a big risk."

Stay tuned on Monday for a possible new outlook.

On the Super Bowl. Joe said "If you take Patrick Mahomes off the field, the Chiefs aren't winning the Super Bowl." Actually, they might've, if they had Matthew Stafford or Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow or C.J. Stroud or maybe even Josh Allen. Joe ignored that the Chiefs have a legendary TE, great DT and a great secondary. Joe also ignored that the 49ers easily could've won the game by simply achieving a few first downs from the Chiefs' 40-yard line. Neither Judge nor Joe speculated if the Chiefs would suddenly have given up a score at that point with 2 minutes left and whether Christian McCaffrey would've slow-walked a handoff 30 yards over 2 minutes into the end zone.


Jenny Harrington also accused Judge of making up a "narrative," stating, "You can pick whatever time frame you want to fit your narrative, but I think the right way to look at it is, step back, and look at 3 years. You know, look at 5 years."

"You can't look at that. You can't do that. You can't do that with AI stocks. Cannot. Cannot. Cannot," Judge insisted.

"I'll tell you why you can-" Jenny said, as she and Judge spoke over each other. "Because that's what a real investor timeframe is." (Yes, they really care in February 2024 what some stock did in July 2021.)

"That's the only way you can judge- that's the only way you can justify not being in them. The only way you can justify not being in the names and missing it. Is by saying, 'Well, you go back 5 years ...'" Judge countered.

"Most clients give you 3 years," Jenny insisted.

Judge said, "The makeup of this market changed dramatically, arguably for an immeasurable amount of time going forward, the day of the Microsoft announcement with OpenAI. That was a move-the-goal-post moment, for the kinds of stocks that you had to be in. Some didn't see it then and they were still willing to get in later ... that was a game-changing moment. Period. End of story."

Jenny suggested taking "today as your starting point." (But Joe wants to start from January 1st, 2022.)

Weiss said "we can have these philosophical discussions," but, trying to play both sides, claimed there are "lots of stocks" that are "under the surface" and performing well. However, Weiss said his "overriding consideration" is that "AI is generational. Like the steam engine. Like 5G (snicker)."

Nevertheless, "Right now, we don't even have a lot of the use cases defined for AI," Weiss conceded.



Joe throws in the towel on down-February prediction


Elsewhere on Friday's (2/23) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss bought NVDA, but he said it's not a big position, rather "it's about a third the size of META" (which Joe says is only up so high because it was down so far in 2022).

Weiss said, "The race for AI, it truly is, you know, it's going to be all we're going to be doing, forget about talking about it, for the next number of years."

Judge said Bespoke says, "The last time the Nasdaq 100 made a new all-time high on a day it gained 3-plus% was March of 2000. Gulp."

Jenny Harrington, who basically only wants to invest in stocks mentioned on "Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Week" (it was a fine show, but the technology world was a little different back then), said, "Ultimately, the Nasdaq's flat over the past 3 years."

Joe Terranova, who 3 times this month has predicted on the show that February would be a down month (both S&P and Nasdaq are over 5%), admitted, "I thought, I was obviously wrong on that assessment, I believed that February would be a month where you'd see corrective price action in the market. You're just not seeing it."

But Joe added, "I feel good about ... there are other names that are working right now, in particular in the large-cap space."



Joe joins Josh in supplying potential idea for Berkshire


After the A Block on Thursday's (2/23) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova made a healthy speculative point that followed a healthy speculative point a day earlier from Josh Brown.

Joe said, "Josh mentioned yesterday Warren Buffett and Amazon. To me, Deere is really a Warren Buffett stock. And if you continue to see Deere cheapen up like that, to me, that's the type of stock you see Berkshire come in and buy."

Indeed. That is sound reasoning and may well prove accurate. A day earlier (see below), Brown suggested AMZN might be the "secret stock" that Berkshire is buying, then later in the show said he didn't want people to "aggregate" "blog" headlines about this comment.

We don't know — and it's clear from the programs that the panelists don't know — whether Berkshire is buying or will buy either DE or AMZN.

But it's fair game to think about.

Judge noted Kevin Simpson trimmed DE and Steve Weiss bought it.

Kevin said earnings were "less impressive" than expected and that CAT, which he also owns, "is crushing it." Weiss said, "I have a good feel for Deere ... for me it's a trading stock."

Weiss congratulated Kevin for a "phenomenal call in CAT" and said it "p----d me off because I didn't take- buy it."

Judge brought in Dave Morehead and Renee Hanna, the managers of Baylor University's endowment, which is apparently beating the Ivy League. Morehead stated, "most endowments actually outsource the actual trading."

Weiss again made LDOS his Final Trade. Judge announced Jamie Dimon will be on the show Monday and said they're super excited.




Judge and Joe actually talk about the Super Bowl (though Judge sounds uncertain that Joe even watched the game) (and nobody speculated as to whether SF QB was told not to throw farther than 10 yards unless it’s out of bounds)


This page has been stating for weeks that Judge inexplicably went silent about pro football just as Super Bowl preparations were rounding into form, almost like it was a taboo subject.

On Thursday's (2/22) Closing Bell, lo and behold, Judge mentioned the Super Bowl.

Star guest Adam Parker told Judge that people need "at least" 25% exposure in the Mag 7. Joe Terranova, also seated at Post 9, somehow said, "I disagree that the Mag 7 are the focal point" (snicker).

Judge even countered, "Disagree that the Chiefs won the Super Bowl?" Joe never indicated he saw the game.

Joe insisted equal weight is up Thursday and the market is about the "AI halo."

Judge said that sounds like anything to do with AI is the place to be. Joe said it's actually "anything that's curating the AI." (We haven't heard anyone explain yet who's "curating" AI.)

Adam said he doesn't know what Joe is disagreeing with; "sounds like he agreed."

"I don't have a 25% weighting to the Mag 7!" Joe said.

"Personally you probably do," Judge said. "No I don't," Joe bristled.

Judge eventually asked Joe if viewers should be "underweight the Mag 7." Joe said "if they are active investors, they should not be carrying a 25% exposure, market weight to the Mag 7. If they are passive, yeah. Then they're going to. Automatically. They have to."

Adam concluded, "We know each other well so we can disagree with each other, it's fine. I disagree with that. All my clients are active investors. I mean, passive investors don't pay! So they're all active investors. And the advice I give them to beat the S&P long only is to be market weight that group for the reasons I articulated."




How much of a headline does Josh’s Berkshire ‘guess’ deserve?


A curious thing happened on Thursday's (2/22) Halftime Report, when Josh Brown made a provocative comment — a healthy, useful comment — then moments later, told people not to read very much into it.

It started when Judge asked Jim Lebenthal about buying AMZN. "It's not an expensive stock" (Zzzzzzz), Jim said, which is a lousy argument for buying AMZN by the way. Jim added that it's been "dead money for 3½ years."

Josh then suggested AMZN could be the "secret stock" that Berkshire has been accumulating.

First of all, we didn't know there was such a "secret stock."

Second, it's amateur hour here as always, but the guess here is that this company would not appeal so much to Warren Buffett. It's a different kind of leadership mindset than that of Tim Cook.

Anyway. Even though Josh and Jim both seem to like the stock, Josh took issue with Jim citing the valuation as some sort of all-clear for buying AMZN. Josh stressed that he's had a "fight" with Jim and Stephanie "for years and years" that traditional valuation measures may not reflect the "dominance" of a name like AMZN.

Jim protested that "sometimes you're right, sometimes Steph and I are right," and that AMZN has been a "dog" for 3½ years. Josh said that's "not because of valuation," actually clapping twice at Jim.

(Actually, Jim hasn't provided any proof that "sometimes Steph and I are right" about, presumably, valuation foreshadowing where a stock is going. We'd like Jim to provide some examples of how a P.E. ratio signaled in advance where a stock was going.)

Josh said PARA was "clearly a disaster" for BRKB/BRKA, but it's probably making as much money as ever on money markets and Treasurys. Josh noted Japan's strength and said Berkshire apparently "sort of saw that coming."

So then Judge asked Josh about his "guess" that maybe BRKA/BRKB is buying AMZN. "I've never even been to Omaha," Brown protested, adding, "Don't aggregate this into, into a new story on your blog, please."

Hmmmm ... on the one hand, we can understand someone on business TV offering speculation that they're not really sure about and being concerned that people will regard it as "investment advice" from someone cleared to offer such on TV.

On the other hand, if people on business television aren't speculating about market moves, then how is anyone different than Santoli?? (Who's on vacation this week, apparently.)

Had Brown not protested about "don't aggregate" into a "blog story," it probably would’ve ended up on this page with a headline saying something like "Josh suggests Berkshire might be buying AMZN."

But with his 2nd comment, Brown succeeded in changing the narrative, which is now, "Can you really believe the s--- that these guys say on the air."

We're also not quite sure what Brown means by "aggregate." That implies CNBC.com is going to post this thread of commentary as a separate story, and people might link to it. Who cares; drives more traffic to cnbc.com.

Stephanie Link said of AMZN, "I've made so much money on it."

Of course.



Did Joe apologize to that parking attendant for NOT telling him to back up the truck before NVDA’s earnings?


As far as the Stock of the Day, of course NVDA, Josh Brown opened Thursday's (2/22) Halftime stating, "If you could buy it last year, you could buy it right now. I'm not. But you could."

Bryn Talkington said the NVDA earnings call "was like a master class."

Jim Lebenthal said, "I don't think it's going lower from here, but I also think the major point that I would make is that you do have to own this."

Jim acknowledged that's a "controversial statement," but "all the oxygen in the room" is going to NVDA.

Then there was the usual banter about the word "cheap," as if stocks go up or down based on how "cheap" they supposedly are.

At the 10-minute mark, Judge said "This was a. Big. Deal." for the entire market.

Bryn said NVDA's success will "create little mini-bubbles."

Josh said someone was showing him that ANF has outperformed NVDA in the past year.

At the end of the show, Judge noted SMCI, a stock mentioned by Guy Adami on Fast Money the night before, was up 30% on Thursday alone. Josh said it's in that same kind of AI-moving group as ANET.




Fast Money panelist says NVDA reminds him of JDS Uniphase


Uh oh.

On Wednesday's (2/21) Fast Money, which spent considerable time tackling NVDA's earnings, guest host Tyler Mathisen asked the group, "Does this stock remind you of any other stock performance that you've seen in your career."

Danny Moses, sitting in with the day's panel, jumped in. "Yes, there was one stock: JDS Uniphase, uh back in '99-2000," said Danny.

Danny said that back in the day, people considered wrapping the world "a hundred times" with all the JDS fiber that was going to be used, and the TAM was "too big, it didn't work, the math didn't work." However, Danny added, "I don't think we're at that point yet here."

(This review was posted overnight Wednesday-Thursday.)

Grandpa Guy Adami, opining on SMCI and the AI space, stated, "I get it, it's a secular growth story, everybody loves it, everybody's gotten rich on the back of it. At a certain point though, certain valuations absolutely matter, as much as we like to think it's different this time ... it's probably not as different as people think."

Guy Adami later said, "I said Billy Joel has as many good songs as he has horrible songs. ... 'We Didn't Start the Fire' is a top-5 worst song, not Billy Joel, in the history of mankind. And Billy's a fan of the show, I'm sorry, but he knows it's lousy. Sorry."

Tyler said "I beg to differ" and claimed "lyrically, it's clever, man."




Joe apparently advised a parking attendant (who’s probably not long the stock) to unload NVDA


As Wednesday's (2/21) Halftime Crew offered last-minute thoughts on NVDA before the mega-important earnings, Jim Lebenthal predicted a "modest beat and raise" and advised buying the dip, if there is one, later this week.

Joe Terranova said that in the morning, he was dropping his car off in Lower Manhattan, and after walking away, "the parking attendant yelled at me, 'Hey Joe, what do you think Nvidia's gonna do?' And my response was, I think, if you're- if you're long the stock, it's time to sit on the sidelines and watch."

(We analyzed this advice for a bit. How does one really "sit on the sidelines" if one is long the stock?)

(If Joe just means "sit on the sidelines," as in, don't buy any more, why would he qualify it with "if you're long the stock"?)

Joe added, "If you need to be active, you're doing it in the options market," and advised having "discipline," if you're not long, to just say "I missed it."

Steve Weiss' home camera finally got rolling around the 11th minute; Weiss said NVDA is "annoying" to him because he didn't own it on the way up (a lot of people have felt that way) (this writer has no position in NVDA), and its earnings could affect his other holdings now. But Weiss has decided it won't do "anything" to stocks such as META and MSFT.

Weiss said if NVDA misses, "everything's going down," but he'd take advantage of the "great buying opportunity" in other names, but not in NVDA or PANW.

Bill Baruch trimmed NVDA ahead of the print; he said he sold 33% before ADM's earnings and 20% a day earlier, Tuesday. Maybe that was too soon.

Bill said if there's a big "unwind" in NVDA, he'd love to "reestablish a stronger position" in the 610-620 range.

On Judge's Closing Bell, Bryn Talkington said she's "not nervous at all" about NVDA earnings — and once again pounded home a powerful point about P.E. ratio "analysis."

Bryn said, "I've said this so many times, first of all, P.E. is a horrible, uh, metric to use, over like, 1-year periods ... tells you nothing, really. ... The E has gone up more than the P."



Joe finally brings up football, as he and Judge have been oblivious to the Super Bowl or anything since the Peacock game


Judge at the top of Wednesday's (2/21) Halftime Report 3 times said PANW earnings was a "fail."

Invoking a sporting analogy, Joe Terranova said, "If it was a football game, the score is 40-nothing, and they were a 10-point favorite going into the game."

"It was the guidance," Joe explained, adding a day ago he was "highly skeptical of the technicals."

Joe said he personally owns PANW around 242, while the JOET owns it at about "that same price level," and Joe said "personally, that would be my stop-loss because you never wanna trade, or turn a winning trade into a losing trade" (but of course, the index is stuck with it until the end of April).

The PANW earnings were an "absolute 40-to-nothing blowout," Joe reiterated.

"I would be a dip buyer," offered Anastasia Amoroso, at least in the cybersecurity space, not necessarily PANW.

Jim Lebenthal's take on PANW's outlook is that "Corporate IT budgets are finite."



‘Ted Pick is gonna be a great CEO’


Judge asked Jim Lebenthal on Wednesday's (2/21) Halftime Report why JPM has "outpaced" other financials, and "you gotta tell me more than Jamie Dimon."

Jim said, "Sit tight for a second," explaining the stock has "idiosyncratic merits" including Dimon and that it's best in the sector, but also that Jim is bullish on the financial sector because there's "all that infrastructure spending going on."

Judge said in the last 3 months, C has actually been outperforming JPM. Jim said Jane Fraser is finally getting credit, but a "turnaround like this" takes more than 1 quarter to confirm. (That seems accurate. Wasn't the stock about the same price a dozen years ago?)

Judge said GS has had a "nice move" and asked Steve Weiss about it. Weiss said "David" did a "mea culpa" and cut losses in bad initiatives, also "they had a great quarter" and there's optimism about the IPO market. Weiss said he doesn't know why MS isn't having the same performance because "Ted Pick is gonna be a great CEO."




Weiss evidently doesn’t mind short-term capital gains


Steve Weiss made an unusual revelation on Wednesday's 2/21 Halftime Report; sadly, Judge didn't follow up on it

Weiss sold VRT because he noticed volume was "tracking very high, unusually high" and driving the stock on down days. That comment didn't really register on our radar, fine.

This one did: Weiss said it was a "great, great trade for me for a short period of time."

That's curious, because Weiss will occasionally argue against selling anything because of the taxes (evidently any kind of taxes, long term, short term, etc.) that are incurred.

He evidently has no problem with paying a short-term gain on VRT.

Weiss said after the earnings reaction, he decided to liquidiate his "small position" because he would've been "really pissed (sic it's apparently OK to say that on CNBC) at myself if I ride this one down." (But then he wouldn't owe any tax.)

Meanwhile, Weiss is long AMZN and said the Jeff Bezos sale is "just a minor sale and means nothing."



Last bull call we could find for TDOC was Jon Najarian in his fateful, last appearance on the Halftime Report when Dom Chu guest hosted on Sept. 9, 2022.


Jim Lebenthal on Wednesday's (2/21) Halftime Report cited the "equal weight" S&P 500 being up 2.6% YTD, "so there is a broadening going on right now."

Joe Terranova plans to sell his personal holding of IBKR, which is also in the JOET, even though it has "red hot" momentum. Joe said that personally, he just wanted it to get over $100.

Joe said it's rare when an energy company such as FANG hits an all-time high. He said prior to the Endeavor acquisition, it was a "buyback story."

Joe shrugged that PSA, one of 3 REITs in the JOET, was having "more of a technical bounce" on Wednesday than anything else.

Judge said CE "missed," and Joe said it was feeling weakness in Europe and China, but Joe said it was having a "remarkable trading range" on Wednesday.

Joe said HST is near a 52-week high, and he expects a "strong earnings report." Jim said there's room for PCG to "eventually increase the dividend" and go higher. PCG actually has been a far more interesting trade for Jim over the last couple of years given the troubles of that entity; we wish he talked about that more than GM and CLF.

Joe said INTU "could go either (pronounced EYE-ther) way" on earnings but is "susceptible to the technology complex if in fact it weakens."

Anastasia Amoroso, who had a quiet show, said that even though there's a lot of negativity already in SEDG, she's "not seeing" an upside catalyst.

Steve Weiss said there's "no barriers to entry, no moat" for TDOC. He suggested the valuation with the stock price in the teens "may be too high."

Weiss made LDOS his Final Trade; he keeps recommending it as such despite not really talking about it during the rest of the programs. It's having a good month, though December-January wasn't terribly exciting.



Judge hasn’t said a word about pro football since the Peacock Playoff Game occurred


Judge on Tuesday's (2/20) Halftime Report wondered if people are getting "a little bit skittish" in NVDA. Joe Terranova said it has "nearly impossible expectations" and tough comps ahead.

Sarat Sethi suggested the NVDA earnings report is riding on the "total addressable market" (snicker). Sarat said "I'd be careful here" in the stock.

Josh Brown said a "negative outcome" for NVDA isn't necessarily a negative outcome for the rest of the market.

Josh explained the NYSE slogan of "S's over N's" or vice versa, meaning S&P and Nasdaq, and predicted this will be an "S's over N's" market into the spring.

Joe was doubling down or tripling down on his claim of "the month of (sic first 3 words redundant) February" being a "down month." Joe pointed out that market gains didn't stem from NVDA's report last November.

Joe said multiple expansion will have to come from small caps. Josh said 8% of S&P components are making 52-week highs, above the historic average of 6%.

Judge asked Joe about the JOET owning DFS. Joe said "I'm gonna be very candid and somewhat humble on this one," but "it was purely a momentum entry."



Outlasting the bastards (cont’d)


In what, despite Judge's return, proved a sleepy edition of Tuesday's (2/20) post-holiday Halftime Report, Sarat Sethi said he still likes DIS and called it a "value play" (snicker).

Judge said Evercore recommends taking profits and a victory lap in industrials. Joe Terranova said he's not ready to do that and that the JOET is 17% in industrials. Joe kept harping on UBER being an "industrial," which Judge downplayed. Joe also praised GWW.

Joe agreed with Judge that PANW earnings would be a "big moment." (They were. This review was posted overnight Tuesday/Wednesday.)

Judge asked Stephanie Link about FTNT. "I made a lot of money throughout COVID," Link said, for anyone who wondered.

Judge tried making a joke about Berkshire and the JOET's rebalancing, but Josh Brown was having none of it.

Josh said "it's been a long time" since he's owned ALB.



Joe says it’s ‘ridiculous’ to be parked in cash even though “the market is overdue for a technical correction’ (a/k/a Bill’s early move for Call of the Year)


Courtney Reagan guest hosted Friday's (2/16) Halftime with a scratchy voice; like a trooper, Court persevered and got stronger as the show went on.

Joe Terranova wasn't concerned about the inflation report but mentioned "growth" about 5 times and stated, "Overall, the disinflationary trend is still in place," and he praised the "really, really excellent" interview with Bostic in the previous hour.

Shannon Saccocia said there's a little "discomfort if you will" in that market money in recent weeks is "going back into the names that performed really well in 2023."

Bill Baruch said "I still think May is on the table," adding there's about a 33% chance of a cut then.

Courtney said Barclays is recommending "stay put" in cash. Joe called that advice "ridiculous" given earnings, growth, the Fed not being "adversarial" and the "disinflationary trend."

Joe said "if you're parked in cash ... what are you waiting for?" Even so, Joe stated, "The market is overdue for a technical correction."

In an early candidate for Call of the Year, Bill had said on Friday 2/9 that he had bought ARM, which closed that day at $115. On Monday it reached $148. Had he just unloaded then, it would be a great trade, but Bill said again Friday that he plans to hold 3-5 years, during which he thinks ARM could "4x."

Joe said, "I would not put fresh capital into Nvidia at this price."



Joe says the PANW move is ‘beyond extreme’


Bill Baruch on Friday's (2/16) Halftime Report announced he bought more TSLA, stating he thinks it "bottomed out" and held support levels; "the negativity here has really peaked."

Joe Terranova said he personally thought TSLA would "break down below 175," but the JOET added recently at 186, and so "non-discretionary Joe seems to be right."

Bill bought more BAC, saying that in the past week, as the 10-year yield rose, BAC actually traded "really well."

Joe said the JOET has been cutting its energy weighting; it was 12% but now it's 6%.

Guest host Courtney Reagan said BMO made TTD a "top pick." It's in the JOET; Joe said it was added last April at 64, which doesn't really have any bearing on where it's going now.

Joe said "momentum funds" are the catalyst for LLY.

Joe talked up one of his long-standing favorite names, "Palo Alto," saying cybersecurity is "mandatory" and it gets "necessary spending," but he trimmed CRWD and cautioned that PANW and CRWD are "technically overbought."

Bill said he thinks it's "very possible" that MSFT can get a "foothold" into cybersecurity. Joe said PANW is "30% above its 200-day moving average; that is beyond extreme."

Courtney actually did a Grade My Trade, a feature we thought had been allowed to lapse. Joe gave William "a hundred with some extra credit" for buying ANET after selling CSCO. Someone else wondered if they made a good trade buying UBER at 35. (That's how this feature works.)



Jeff Kilburg predicts
new highs next month


Jeff Kilburg, who hasn't been on CNBC's Halftime Report in years, was on The Exchange on Thursday (2/15) with guest host Sully and was chock-full of actionable trades.

Jeff said NVDA has to "back and fill," and he'd recommend putting NVDA money, as soon as Wednesday, into what he sees as the "huge opportunity" of TSLA.

Jeff also insisted we'll get "100 basis points" of rate cutting this year, so there's "more room to run" for stocks, and "we're gonna make new highs I think next month."




CNBC’s graphics crew forgot the period after ‘M’


Nowadays, you can't get through an A Block of the Halftime Report without hearing about NVDA, which is actually kind of cool (except that it also gets old).

Josh Brown opened Thursday's (2/15) episode saying "I actually think that we are seeing a topping out of the Nasdaq, at least short term."

Bryn Talkington said she added to RSP, which is the S&P equal weight (Joe Terranova's second-favorite term, after "rebalancing"), in December. Bryn said that when there's a divergence with the equal weight, they eventually come back, so "it's like a mean-reversion trade."

Pointing to 1995, Bryn said "we really like energy here," suggesting it does "very well" after the first rate cut; the RSPG was Bryn's Final Trade.

Bryn said regarding the CPI report that "the machines were tired, the algos were tired."

"I think Nvidia will be strong," predicted Jason Snipe, though he's "run out of superlatives."

Josh said that other than NVDA, none of the biggies in the Nasdaq 100 "are currently overbought statistically."

Bryn said in this market, she'd tap into the "call premium" in whichever individual names you can get it.

Leslie Picker said the latest filings show "hedge fund profit taking" in megacap tech in December. (It's 45 days old, but whatever.)

Josh talked about trimming NVDA so it doesn't overwhelm the portfolio, not as any sort of market call. Jason Snipe seconded the notion of "portfolio management." Josh said the problem is that when you do the "prudent thing" of portfolio management with the "biggest winners throughout history," every time you do it, "you feel like a clown." (More importantly, you make less money than you could've.)

Bryn seemed surprised that anyone would be compelled to sell NVDA; "it's Nvidia's world."

Josh asked Bryn if she's concerned that the NVDA bulls may be totally right about the growth but the stock may be "a little bit ahead of it." Bryn shrugged that TAM is just a "made-up number."

Bryn and Jason addressed AAPL, calling it a "mature company," and Bryn said that's fine but all the dollars now are flowing to AI.




Pippa Stevens talks about underwear


Guest host Frank Holland on Thursday's (2/15) Halftime Report noted SHAK, long a holding of Josh Brown, is having its best day in nearly 4 years.

Josh said he bought the stock in 2014. Apparently shrugging off the peaks and valleys in the name, Josh said that 20 years ago, when he was a "frustrated retail stockbroker," his dad sent him a pick-me-up card saying only "outlast the bastards," and that's what he's done in this stock, which was also his Final Trade.

Frank said Morgan Stanley is talking up BX in what it calls "the golden age of private credit." Jason Snipe, who just bought the name last week, said the company has a record $200 billion in "dry powder." Bryn Talkington called it a "really smart buy." Josh Brown touted CG.

Jason said you have to be "patient" with FDX.

Josh said he bought CRWD in November 2020, and given the rocky 2022 it had, it's an example of "outlasting the bastards." He wouldn't sell, but he wouldn't be a "fresh money buyer" either.

Frank brought up the XBI and noted Jason's "contrarian trade" for the year (we thought those had already been forgotten) was biotech. Jason likes the sector for this year. Brown said biotech's had an "incredibly poor stretch" for 5 years, which may be a good reason to take a look now.

Kate Rooney reported on institutions driving crypto's gains. Bryn said she has a "small amount of exposure" to the GBTC and she "wouldn't be surprised" if bitcoin were either $100,000 or $25,000. Bryn said bitcoin is like "digital gold" but for "other coins," Bryn said, "I would really like to see some use cases come to fruition."

Josh touted LYV and said "I'm not a seller."

Delivering CNBC's News Update, CNBC's ultracute Pippa Stevens said Target is launching a new value brand that will include "underwear that will cost under $10. Everyone, Frank, loves a bargain."



So much for ‘10% upside’


The latest person on the Halftime Report to couch a bad sale with a brag was Jenny Harrington — even though she didn't mention anything Wednesday (2/14) about selling.

Jenny, long UBER, said she bought the stock 2 years ago, and, "We're up 240% since we bought it." (This writer is long UBER.)

Congrats to Jenny. The thing is, back on Jan. 12, Jenny also gushed about buying UBER at $22 in 2022. The thing is, by Jan. 12, she said she'd already trimmed it 3 times, which she called "responsible."

And she predicted there's only "10% upside" in UBER through 2024. (It closed at $63.20 that day, so since she made that prediction, it's already up 25% in a month.)

Sarat Sethi on Jan. 9 said he trimmed UBER and on Feb. 5 also said, "I bought it when it was back in the low 20s," (sounds like it was a real popular buy back then) but he "took some money off at the beginning of this year" because it's "highly valued" (snicker).

On Jan. 2, both Joe Terranova and Steve Weiss opened the year speaking of trimming UBER. (Nice call.) (Don't want those outsized positions.) Joe on Jan. 22 even talked about why he "pared back" UBER at the end of 2023.

On Wednesday's (2/14) Fast Money, Karen Finerman observed of UBER, "Mathematically, it's not really in their favor to be out there buying back stock."



Um, S&P up 47 by the end of the day, so much for the white-hot momentum done


Joe Terranova opened Wednesday's (2/14) Halftime Report saying he thinks the "positive trend" of 2024 is "in place."

But, as of lunchtime at least, he was thinking Tuesday was "critically important" in snapping (snicker) the market's "white-hot momentum." (Maybe by 4 p.m., he wasn't so sure.)

While Joe spoke, someone with a hacking cough caught an open mike; it apparently was Steve Weiss.

Joe said he claimed "2 weeks ago" that he "thought February would be a down month" and that Judge didn't call him out on it while stocks were still going up (but now he can take a victory lap maybe).

"It does feel like leadership is rotating," Jim Lebenthal offered, though he "can't prove it."

Weiss said investors "clearly panicked yesterday," but the Fed just wants to "make sure" that inflation is going down, so they're "not going to cut until the 2nd half of the week (sic that would be a quickie)." Judge corrected to "2nd half of the year." Weiss said "sorry" and said it'll be 3 cuts, not "5 or 6."

"I don't see any type of bounce (snicker) here," said Weiss, who probably should've waited until the end of the day.

Joe said he was wrong in thinking about 6 cuts and that the Fed (which signaled 3) was right. "We validated the Federal Reserve's patience," Joe said, and it's not every day you hear that comment on CNBC.

Jim said "3 would be great" in terms of rate cuts.

Judge aired a clip of Jeffrey Gundlach a day earlier on Closing Bell saying the cut is "probably going to be June, if it happens at all." (Basically, if you can't catch Closing Bell, Judge will air the highlights the next day on Halftime.) Judge also aired a clip of Rich Saperstein on the same program defending the Mag 7, a view Weiss said he shares. Jim Lebenthal said "The Mag 7 is the Mag 5 right now," kicking out TSLA and AAPL.



Judge took the show right up to 1:00 p.m. this time


Steve Weiss on Wednesday's (2/14) Halftime Report said he sees "no use case" for bitcoin, but it trades on technicals and momentum and he thinks it'll "get past" the "prior highs in the 60s."

Joe Terranova said there was "clearly exuberance" in travel names such as ABNB, which Joe said was slipping Wednesday on a "little bit of a moderation in the growth rate."

Joe sold TWLO, after he "bought it December," above 75. Joe admitted that while he traded it well before the pandemic, he hasn't had the same success afterwards. But Tuesday, he decided he'd "had enough." Judge tried to prod Joe into maybe rethinking his sale, but Joe explained that his move is a "risk management element."

Joe said the CDNS news is just a "very small misstep" and he's "happy to own."

Joe said there are fundamentals supporting PLTR and it's an "AI story (snicker) as well."

Bernstein upgraded IBM with a 165 price target, which Jenny Harrington chuckled is about 20 bucks below where the stock is.

At the end of the show, Joe badgered Jim Lebenthal about Jim's enthusiasm for the casino space.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman wondered about Peltz and DIS, "Didn't he sell stock at 120 last year?"




If Selleck just got in shape, he could get movie roles instead of TV commercials


Karen Finerman on Tuesday's (2/13) Fast Money twice said the CPI is "one data (she pronounced it DAY-ta) point," and, after the big selloff noted, "We are where we were Tuesday."

Regarding the LYFT earnings report bungle that briefly sent shares surging, Karen said, "I think they'll be sued within an hour," though she doesn't see how anyone was "particularly disadvantaged."

Mel questioned "how are you harmed" by the LYFT trading action, maybe if you're short. Karen admitted "I don't know" and said maybe if you bought it on seeing those 500 basis points.



Judge somehow wrapped up Halftime at 12:57, leaving 3 minutes of commercials before Power Lunch


Judge ran Tuesday's (2/13) Halftime from Englewood Cliffs, where only Jim Lebenthal among the panelists was present.

Jim said CPI was "not a good piece of news" and twice called it a "bad data (he pronounced it DAY-ta) point" but he indicated some of the supposedly hot inflation is irrelevant, saying Fed cuts can't really control the cost of electric-car repairs.

"It doesn't throw me off track," Jim said.

Stephanie Link said "I"m not changing my thought of a soft landing at all."

Josh Brown said the impact of the CPI report on bulls "depends on why you were bullish" and suggested the bull camp looking for 7 rate cuts was "literally (sic) sniffing glue."

Judge told Rob Sechan that the market has been "primed" for a pullback. Rob said, "The morning's CPI print potentially puts the inflation side of the equation into question."

Rob said he thinks a correction would be "short and shallow," unless it's "like '22," in which case, "We're goin' down." Judge said in 2022, "The goal posts were in a completely different place."

Jim said he trimmed NVDA at 712, citing — as everyone on the show does — cost basis: "I'm up something like 60% in 6 months." Jim said he thinks it's reaching the point where it's "run out of buyers," but he reaffirmed his suggestion for people not in NVDA to take 1% positions.

Bill Baruch, via Skype, talked of trimming AAPL and AMZN; Bill said "it's prudent portfolio management" and these are still "really in our top 5."

Bill said the market could be entering a "leveling out trade that could last for the next couple months."

Steve Kovach reported on the WSJ survey of Copilot users: "Things that this product is supposed to do, it's not always doing it well."

Rob Sechan said he'll keep riding momentum in LLY. Rob said, "Trust me, it's not like we don't get S. H. I. T. (that's how he said it) for not owning Nvidia for our clients."



Berkshire Hathaway is ‘never’ going to have good enough scores for the JOET


It's not every day that you hear on Wall Street that Berkshire Hathaway is not quality enough to qualify for an ETF.

That's what happened on Monday's (2/12) Halftime Report as Judge asked Joe Terranova about the JOET moving out of the stock.

Joe said "the way the financial construction of the company is is that the return on equity and the debt to equity figures are never going to be strong enough" for the JOET.

"It's going to have a low score on return on equity," Joe explained.

"How did it get in there in the first place?" Judge wondered.

"Because you saw a dramatic acceleration in the momentum factor over the 3rd quarter of 2023- uh 2024 rather, 2023 rather, and that got us in almost on a rental basis for what proved to be a really good trade," Joe said, which didn't really answer the question. (So the return on equity is never good enough, unless it's going up for no reason.)



Karen: ‘The pandemic is way worse than ’07’ in terms of real estate impact


In a very thoughtful, reasonable — and stark — roundtable, Monday's (2/12) Fast Money crew offered a consensus outlook on commercial real estate.

Discussing NYCB and the sector, Dan Nathan stated, "I actually don't think the commercial real estate thing gets any better anytime soon."

Karen Finerman agreed. "The pandemic is way worse than '07," as far as impact on real estate, Karen said.

"There's a glut of supply," said Bonawyn Eison. "To me, there's no end in sight, unless we're going back comp- return to work is getting restored to 100% of what it once was."



‘It goes up every frickin’ day


On Monday's (2/12) Halftime Report, viewers expected to hear about the champs.

So Judge gave them Nvidia, not the Kansas City Chiefs.

Judge declared, "We're on rally watch, yet again."

Jim Lebenthal, who owns NVDA, said the tech move "makes me chuckle" and that NVDA goes up every day. But Judge and Jim noted the Russell is gaining, and Jim asserted that "it's got a lot more room to run," which is what Jim and all the "value" crowd have been asserting for 10 or 15 years.

Steve Weiss said, "You're right Scott, this is a momentum market, and I think the new poster child for momentum is ARM Holdings," adding there's "no reason" for the stock's gain on Monday.

Judge asked Joe if this rally can broaden out and stay that way. Joe curiously stated (in what sounded like one of those faulty math proofs where one assumes what he's trying to prove is true, or maybe, a Yogi-ism), "The fuel for it is the momentum itself, so, as long as that fuel is in place, then yes, Scott, it can broaden out over an extended period of time." (Which sounds like saying, When something's going up, if it keeps going up, then it can keep going up.)

Weiss questioned Jim's statement that MSFT is cooling off, wondering, "Where's the slowing." Weiss stated, "We've been hearing that value is back for the last decade. And it's not back."

In the 10th minute, Joe said "equally weighted" (ding-ding-ding).

Jim said he got into NVDA 6 months ago at 450. Judge said it seemed like a "FOMO" trade at the time. Jim said the only reason he hasn't started trimming is because "it goes up every frickin' day."

Jim said if you owned zero NVDA, think about buying a 1% position. Joe shook his head, "Not here," cautioning that NVDA has "supply chain dependency."

Judge said some people would take Jim's 1% advice as a "warning sign" of euphoria. Weiss admitted, "Every day I look at it and say, 'Why don't I own this,'" and he thinks you can "justify" the NVDA multiple, but he owns TSM because it has a "mid-teens multiple."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman, who's long NVDA, said she's "concerned" that there isn't any number that NVDA can put up that the market will like. Karen even likened the melt-up to Viacom-Archegos.



Judge, Joe oblivious to the fact there was a football game played the night before (Oh, it was on CBS, so it didn’t exist)


For those concerned about the dotcom era, Mike Santoli on Monday's (2/12) Halftime Report said people are throwing around the word/number/year "1999."

Santoli said now is not the same, even if the market gets "a little overheated" in the short term.

Steve Weiss made yet another trade in DE, selling it. (We'd forgotten he was still long.) Weiss explained, again (guess Judge didn't hear him the first day of it), why he made a trade in ADM (it had nothing to do with business but the corporate troubles).

Weiss added to his "still very small" NFLX position; he said "they are by far, by far, the leader."

Weiss made bitcoin his Final Trade.




It’ll be the Chiefs


In the lead-in to Friday's (2/9) Halftime Report, Sara Eisen told Carl Quintanilla, "Everyone knows I'm a Bengals fan, but my husband's a die-hard (49ers) fan."

That was significant because it's the only football to be heard during the Halftime hour, as Judge and Terranova remain frankly oblivious to the fact there's a football game this weekend (Earth to Judge ...).

And it's going to be won by the Kansas City Chiefs. The pride of CNBC voice Jim Birdsall. (This prediction was posted early morning Saturday, Feb. 10.)

We don't quite get how the 49ers are favored. (Well, actually we do, it's sort of the yearlong machinations of this process, but whatever.) Yes, the 49ers have more elite players than the Chiefs, and the 49ers can light up the scoreboard in bunches. And the Chiefs no longer have a wide-open offense and scored a remarkably low total for an AFC champion 2 weeks ago.

But the 49ers, unfortunately, are very good at losing championship games. They find ways to get tight. That's probably going to happen here. It happened to Philadelphia last year. The Chiefs coach used to fall under the same category, but since he found his QB, he generally wins championship games. So we're expecting a game similar to last year's Super Bowl.

Judge and Terranova may not want to acknowledge the game. OK. Whatever. No one on the show is going to try to stump the host by asking Who played in Super Bowl III, the Immaculate Reception game and the Hail Mary game. All people would like to hear are a few predictions. If we have to get those from Sara Eisen, fine. (By the way, CNBC's Contessa Brewer was peppering Brock Purdy with a question during media day (of course, it involved a gambling pun).) (Contessa on Friday's Fast Money showed clips of her interviewing several Super Bowl players about the Federal Reserve. Even though the screen text said "JUSTIN WATSON" as a Chiefs player mentioned Jay Powell, Mel had to ask Contessa which player was talking about Powell, and Contessa claimed it was "Christian," who Contessa said is "up maybe for MVP.")



Jason, Kevin have different recollections of a year ago at this time


Judge opened Friday's (2/9) Halftime Report saying Tom Lee is nudging his year-end target up to 5,500, and others are hiking too.

"I do think those targets will be met by year-end," said Jim Lebenthal, who pointed out how the S&P is up 5% YTD already and NVDA is up 45%.

Even so, Jim said he woke up Friday thinking, "My next move is to trim."

Bryn Talkington observed, "Nvidia has doubled 4 times in the past 5 years." Bryn said she sells calls on half of her NVDA position.

Bryn noted the big year so far of NVDA and META but said the "exuberance" problem is with those names linked to NVDA. "It does not make sense ... there's a ton of froth underneath," Bryn said. (Even so, another panelist is buying into the froth, see below.)

Judge noted how people keep talking about the big market run-up, but, "Being due for a correction doesn't mean anything."

Jason Snipe asserted, "We were having the same conversation last year, in Q1 of last year." Jason said "I think it can continue," but in the "later part of February, likely there will be a pullback."

To the contrary, Kevin Simpson said, "This doesn't feel the same as it did last year," when it seemed like "there were 7 names that were carrying the entire market."

Rather, backing Jim's curious point from earlier in the week that the market really is broadening, Simpson stated, "It feels like there's a whole lot more breadth this year." (Jim and Judge didn't get into the broadening issue on Friday.) (However, Santoli said during his portion of the program, "The market itself is not as narrow as is being portrayed in general," so score another one for Jim.)

Jim said that "Taking nothing away from the Mag 7" on buybacks, there is "even more fuel" for airlines, casinos, carmakers; basically GM gets a much bigger "yield return" on buybacks than AAPL does.

Jim noted, "When you take out the Mag 7, the average stock is trading at 16.4 times. That's not expensive."

As far as the rate-cut timetable, in the 15th minute, Bryn opened the Pandora's box of NYCB, saying "everyone thinks" it's "isolated," but there's $500 billion in commercial mortgage-backed loans coming due this year and next, so "not having a rate cut would definitely be a huge dampener on, on really specific sectors in the market."

Guy Adami on Fast Money stated, "The market is on autopilot right now."



Joe claims AFC and NFC championship game advertising was a tell about EXPE


Bill Baruch joined in remotely on Friday's (2/9) Halftime Report to explain his buy of ARM, which Judge questioned given that it's up 60% this week.

Bill explained that this stock and TSLA are much smaller in his portfolio than AMZN. But Bill said he sees "4 or 5x from here over the next 3 years" in ARM, and "I see myself adding if it does go lower." (Um, we wonder about that particular sentence.)

Judge wondered, if the market consolidates, wouldn't this stock be at "the top of the list." Bill said this stock is just "now on the list" for portfolio managers. Bill also contended we're not in the "middle innings" of AI, but "early innings." (Another Judge miss — he should've redirected Bill to use football terms, given that it's Super Bowl weekend (i.e., "1st quarter" and not "3rd quarter"), but the Halftime Report is actually doing baseball analogies in early February.)

Judge asked Kevin Simpson about buying MPC. "It's the hallmark of cash- of free cash flow for energy (Zzzzzz)," Simpson said.

Jason Snipe bought BX; he said "private equity is interesting here."

Jim Lebenthal was talking up CLF, asserting it will be "buying back a ton of shares."

Judge said Citi has downgraded ALB and dropped its price target from 175 to 120. "I think the call is really late," Bryn Talkington said, adding lithium has "fallen like a stone."

Judge brought in Joe Terranova remotely (in pandemic-era whiteboard room) to discuss the EXPE plunge. Joe said he's "not surprised" because of the ads during the AFC and NFC championship games. Joe said the JOET bought this name in October at 95, "so we have a little bit of a cushion" (note to readers: JOET's cost basis has nothing to do with where the stock is going) but can't get out until April rebalancing. Joe said if he wasn't in the name, he wouldn't buy it or short it, even though Joe seems to think "you could see further downside ahead."

Judge asked Bryn about RBLX's nice week. Bryn said to get over 50, it needs a "path to positive earnings."



Someone got really defensive discussing NYCB


Among those Market Possibilities That No One Talks About, we have Josh Brown's impressive commentary on Thursday's (2/8) Halftime Report.

Judge said that Citi is saying that "the biggest macro risk in the market is any disappointment whatsoever on the rate-cut timetable." Josh chuckled that he "completely" disagrees with Citi; "I think the risk is we overheat, and the Fed has to start hiking again."

Indeed. It seems, in the 5-ish interest rate era, virtually unfathomable that the Fed would resume hiking just to clear out the remaining cobwebs of a once-a-century supply chain fluke and stamp out Arthur Burns for good.

But they might.

Josh pointed out that rate cuts aren't like some prescheduled benefit; "there's always trouble" that prompts them; "we don't do preemptive rate cuts, uh, in, in, in this country."

Meanwhile, Judge quoted UBS as seeing "further gains" in a potential "Goldilocks" scenario and said Wolfe seems to think, according to Judge, that "stocks are goin' up."

Liz Young said she questions how the economy can rev ahead, inflation can sink and rates can "aggressively" be cut.

"The math of that doesn't really work," Liz said.

"Really?" Judge questioned, stating the "whole sort of thing" has been based on a "soft landing."

Liz said if growth is stronger than expected, that would push inflation higher. Josh Brown questioned if productivity could "make up for the difference." Liz said "we could as long as the productivity doesn't cost a lot more" (which seems like a negation of the premise, or whatever they call it). (We did watch the movie "Oppenheimer" (twice) but we don't have any clue what those guys were talking about.)

Bill Baruch said, "I do expect them to go in May, and I expect the stock market to continue to move along."

One of Judge's regular guests, who gets to talk endlessly and tells viewers in every episode that earnings estimates and market multiples are too high and there's tons of other places to invest besides megacap tech which are never going to outperform again, was asked by Judge about owning NYCB. That person said "message boarders tried to create SVB 2.0," and she won't sell it at the "wrong price," such as Thursday's ($4.31 while she spoke).



Bill actually says Elon was ‘great’ at attending an earnings call


On Thursday's (2/8) Halftime Report, Bill Baruch spoke of buying TSLA and how he has a "starter position."

Bill then actually said Elon Musk "delivered a great earnings call in the sense of delivering the, the notes."

Judge cut Bill off and noticed his "direct quote" of "delivered a great earnings call" and noted that Dan Ives "said it was exactly the opposite."

Bill said he used the "wrong name" but that "from a fiduciary standpoint, he delivered the earnings call. That's what I'm highlighting" (snicker).

Judge said, "What do you mean, he was on the call?" Bill said, "He was on the call, yes ... the bar is low."

Judge said David Einhorn is calling markets "fundamentally broken."



Weiss, like Jim, sees ‘broadening’


Well, whaddaya know — Jim Lebenthal's eyebrow-raising determination this week that the stock market is indeed broadening was actually seconded by none other than Steve Weiss on Wednesday's (2/7) Halftime Report.

Finally given a chance after a lengthy opening and reporting from home, Weiss actually told Judge, "I see broadening."

Weiss cited stocks he owns including VRT and GS. "It's not such a narrow advance," Weiss said.

Judge told Weiss that anyone can "cherry pick" certain names, but "the gains are dwarfed by comp services over the last month, which is up 12%. ... Utilities are negative, energy's negative, materials are negative. Health care staples, they're up 3%."

Kari Firestone said "the broader market works" once we begin to see "better earnings from different sectors."

Judge aired a clip of Aswath Damodaran from a day earlier on Closing Bell stating "all" of the Mag 7 "look overpriced," but, "I think Nvidia stands out as particularly overpriced."

Aswath said for the others, he can get close to their valuations, but for NVDA, he "can't even get close."

That's all well and good, but even Weiss said moments later that "the professor" still owns NVDA and there's the issue of whether someone would sell "and pay taxes," or "ride out" what could be merely momentary overvaluation.



Marko Kolanovic actually says today’s market in some ways is worse than the dotcom era


Looking for skeptics as always, Judge on Wednesday's (2/7) Halftime Report actually kept a straight face while noting that Marko Kolanovic said in a note: "Market concentration continues to flash a warning sign as we are near the highs of the Dotcom era. ... The current period is in some ways worse than the Dotcom bubble."

Steve Weiss said "I think it's ridiculous" because the companies in the dotcom era "didn't make money" and were "purely up on air," and that while Kolanovic can "cherry pick" certain stats, the fundamentals during dotcom don't compare to today, and in a recession, people want these kinds of "fortress balance sheets."

Joe Terranova said it's only "human nature" to look at the post-October rally and decide it "needs to cool off."

At one point, Joe started talking about "understanding the intuitive observation (snicker)" of people opining on the Mag 7. Joe contended, "This dominance of angry algos ... doesn't care about that stuff" and that "momentum is dominating the market," up 11% YTD.

Brian Belski said he's owned NVDA for 5 years and he would sell the stock if he saw something "fundamentally changing."



We’re gonna be hearing ‘equal weight’ quite a bit for a while


Brian Belski started off Wednesday's (2/7) Halftime stating "the consternation is so much top of mind." Then he delved into the stat book.

Belski said "what we have found, going back to 1990, that the average performance of the S&P 500 following a concentration of these 10 stocks the year before, the average performance of the year following that, is positive 14.3%."

"What do you mean, hold on a second; what kind of history are you looking at?" Judge demanded. "It's not like this has always been the- been the case, these are a select group of stocks that are just coming off of a, a huge year."

"People love historical facts. I'm just giving you analysis," Belski said.

"I know, but I'm dumping on the historical facts because I don't think they're legit (sic really meant to say 'relevant')," Judge said.

"I'm not gonna be a reactive person on television, reacting to what happened yesterday or last year or last week. My analysis is based on long-term historical facts," Belski said. "We're just adding empirical evidence, Scott."

Judge protested that as for broadening, "For now, it doesn't seem to matter, obviously, if the S&P is nearing 5,000."

Joe Terranova said, "I run an equal-weighted strategy."

Kari Firestone said "what matters" is the earnings growth of the top companies.

Moments later, Judge sought to clarify his reaction to Belski's comments. "Let me be clear. Um, I am not dumping all over the historical references that you make. I'm simply suggesting, maybe I'm wrong: We've never had this level of concentration in these kinds of stocks all in the same space."

Belski actually told Judge, "You're a sports guy." Belski said to think of the market like baseball, the rules stay the same "but the players change."

Kari said, "We haven't trimmed any of our, our, our big winners," though, "No one should have a problem with a profit."



Karen says she should’ve realized this was going to be a great DIS quarter


Brian Belski on Wednesday's (2/7) Halftime Report mentioned some recent buys, one of which was SNAP.

"We probably should've waited until after the earnings," Belski said. Even so, "At the end of the day, we like this name longer term," Belski said.

Josh Brown, who recently had been trumpeting SNAP (at least until Tuesday), happened to be on Closing Bell later and told Judge he only had a "small position."

"Honestly, I said going in, 'I don't trust this thing,' I should've listened to my own instinct," Brown admitted.

Back on Halftime, Joe Terranova said he sold a third of his CRWD stake. Joe said it's an "intuitive observation" (snicker) that's "probably going to be wrong."

"Don't say that!" Kari Firestone said.

Joe said he believes in cybersecurity, but he's "significantly overweight" and just decided to trim the position a bit.

Steve Weiss said he bought more UBER, for the "momentum in fundamentals." (This writer is long UBER.) Joe said he agrees with Weiss and predicted "it goes well above $80." (Translation: The business outlook is seen as getting better, rather than "the P.E. ratio is such and such.")

Kari Firestone bought PAYC; the rationale appeared to be a strong economy. But Kari did mention "lowest P.E. since it IPO'd."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said that this figured to be a good quarter for DIS, given that this is the "last earnings call they have" before the proxy fight vote.

"I'm not insinuating that they massaged the numbers," Karen said, but there's a "sort of spin" they can put on things.

Karen said NVDA's earnings are "still like 2 weeks away," so there's "a lot of like good news already baked in."




Because if we hadn’t skyrocketed rates by 75 basis points several times, this would be the 1970s all over again


The really important subject in Tuesday's (2/6) Halftime Report (no, not Jim's crazy thesis that the market rally is broadening and has been broadening based on Monday and Wednesday of last week) surfaced at the very end of the program.

Judge spent the closing minutes with some refreshingly extended and thoughtful dialogue about Janet Yellen's comments on commercial real estate (it was typical Washington speak; this is concerning but oh by the way we're all over it) and Jay Powell's "60 Minutes" comments and whether banking problems really are contained. Most of the panelists simply touted how they own the big banks and not smaller banks.

Josh Brown affirmed that he's still in his NYCB trade, though he conceded the stock's had "just a bloodbath."




In case you didn’t realize that streaming, in general, is a massive bust ... (a/k/a do pro wrestling rights qualify as ‘sports’?)


CNBC's David Faber reported at the top of Tuesday's (2/6) 5 p.m. Fast Money on the new Disney-Fox-Warner Bros. streaming service (we don't know what else to call it) and said Fox apparently has been doing the same thing in Australia. David said this service figures to "appeal to a wide variety and breadth and depth of sports fans."

David said, "The entity will not be bidding on sports rights on its own."

"Seems pretty confusing," Missy Lee offered after Faber's report, questioning why each broadcaster would be bidding for sports rights that are going to be shared in this manner. David said those who are paying more for the broadcast rights will collect a greater share of the revenue from the service.

Karen Finerman was "a little bit confused" about the notion of ESPN putting its content on this service while remaining a stand-alone channel.

After David signed off, Mel said Karen's still "a little puzzled."

Rich Greenfield said he sees this as a "30- to 40-dollar product," or "quite expensive." Rich claimed that while the "focus" will be on sports, "all of the content" on those networks will be on this streamer.

Dan Nathan asked Rich if the new streaming collaboration/mess is going to be a "very confusing offering" and even "DOA." Rich said the "fragmentation of sports" across multiple providers/streamers "is a problem."


Jim claims the market’s experiencing ‘Confused Seas’ (but claims his thesis is somehow the one that’s playing out)


Whenever Judge and Jim Lebenthal tangle, this page keeps an open mind; we're not prejudging anything for that matter, we really don't know anything about anything.

But on Tuesday's (2/6) Halftime, Jim got manhandled defending a ridiculous broadening theory that no one else on the show would touch.

Jim said he listened to Monday's show (he wasn't a panelist that day) and it was a "really good show." Jim said he heard talk about the quality of megacap balance sheets, but "you can find those quality of balance sheets, those quality of cash flows, outside of megacap tech."

Then the head-scratcher: "And that's why I think the rally is broadening and has been broadening," Jim asserted.

"It hasn't been broadening. That's the whole point! Let's be clear: It has not. It has not," Judge cut in.

Jim pointed out how much "broadening" he saw each day in the past week, some days, yes, other days, no; "this is what happens in a regime change (snicker)."

Jim at one point said, "I'm sick and tired of talking about the Fed." Judge said, "You can't afford to be sick of the Fed because you need the Fed to actually cut so that your positioning-"

"I don't," Jim cut in.

"Yes you do. So that your positioning works," Judge continued.

Jim said he heard Judge's "exact" words Monday about "directionally right and tactically wrong." (Jim's correct, those are the exact words.)

Moments later, Judge mentioned to Josh Brown that Jim claimed earlier in the show that the market is already broadening out. "It's not," Brown bluntly stated.

Jim insisted that last week (that's correct, 1 whole week) was a "tale of 2 cities" (snicker).

"Who cares what a day or 2 make?" Judge asked, incredulously.

Jim insisted, based on "the trend from November 1st till today; it has broadened."

"No it hasn't!" Brown stressed.

Jim yet again insisted "here's the point I wanna make," which he already had numerous opportunities to make; he said it's "part opinion and it's part fact." Jim again pointed to Monday and Wednesday of last week; "this is what's called, in mariner's term, Confused Seas (snicker)."

"We're worried that we're gonna capsize," Judge stated.

Jim touted C; Judge called it an "idiosyncratic" story.

Judge suggested that Stephanie Link's purchase of SNOW is a sign of investors favoring "growth over value."

Stephanie said Jim is "spot on" about the October lows to the first week of January, but since the first week of January, "it absolutely has narrowed again."




That Snap Plus must not be as big of a hit as some have said


In his one lapse while conversing with Jim Lebenthal on Tuesday's (2/6) Halftime, Judge at one point told Jim that AAPL was "167, 169 not that long ago."

Jim wondered, "Was I on vacation?" Judge insisted "the chart was ugly" and it "wasn't that long ago." (Actually it was the end of October, for about 5 minutes, which Judge sort of acknowledged later).

Meanwhile, Judge noted that Josh Brown's 2024 "contrarian" pick of KWEB was taking off. Brown said he doesn't have inside knowledge, he relies on "press reports" about China like everyone else, but he thinks Xi has had enough and that Chinese assets are cheap and according to Jim Grant, "good things have a habit of happening to cheap assets."

Josh sold PYPL, which he recently has touted a few times (while acknowledging it has a lot of headwinds). "I don't trust these guys," Brown said.

Josh said SNAP is cutting 500 people, not "big layoffs," but he thinks the announcement may be a signal of a quarter that's not good. (That appeared to be true hours later.) (This review was posted overnight Tuesday-Wednesday.) Dan Nathan on Fast Money said of SNAP, "If these guys are doing this poorly, I can't imagine how badly Twitter's doing."

Josh said at the top of the show that he trimmed NVDA because it's up 40% YTD and there was "absolutely nothing new" in the recent upgrade.

Bertha Coombs had the line of the day during a CNBC News Update item on The Grateful Dead, stating, "'Bertha' is still my least favorite of their songs."

Judge, who's probably never actually heard "Bertha" before, chuckled.




Joe is early front-runner for Call of the Year (but hardly ‘everyone’ was criticizing him)


Shortly into Monday's (2/5) Halftime Report, Judge made this statement to his panel:

"A lot of investors learned this the hard way last year. Some of whom who (sic 'whom' then 'who') are on this program. Who are not here today, but whatever. Um, you can be directionally right and tactically wrong. You can call everything right. And you can be in the wrong stocks."

That prompted this sorta I-told-ya-so from Joe Terranova, who said, "I mentioned it the first week, and then everyone criticized me for mentioing (sic pronounced 'menching,' skipped syllable) it." (Not really true, unless Joe's talking about perhaps his X account.)

Joe said there should've been in early January "strong capital inflows to the laggard areas of the market," and we "didn't see that." Joe said people want megacaps because "the revenue growth is there."

Indeed. Joe made one of the show's few notable calls in January, that while most people expected a broadening out in 2024, it might well be another year, at least for a while, of Magnificent 7.

Judge pointed out that megacaps are dominating in earnings and revenue growth. Steve Weiss said megacap is the place of great balance sheets, and those institutional investors not in those stocks are asking why they're not; Weiss also said there's a younger class of investors who are "more tech-focused." (Gee ... wonder if that's because some of these "tech-focused" companies are ... printing gobs more money than stocks that peoples' grandparents bought in the '70s?)

But the market "does have to pause, including large-cap tech," Weiss suggested.

Joe said if megacap techs "pause" or "correct," then the "market's going down." Joe said megacap tech had its bear market in autumn 2022. Weiss said "this sounds like the conversation that we had most of last year."



What are the chances the next Fed move will be a hike?


Judge opened Monday's (2/5) Halftime Report by mentioning the Powell "60 Minutes" interview and said "really good news" may not be so good and the market will "have to figure out what's what."

Joe Terranova said the 10-year is trading at 4.17%. Joe said the "composition" of YTD performance is "troubling," with more than half the S&P being negative.

Joe said small caps are "absolutely abysmal."

Amy Raskin said, "This is an AI story-driven market." Amy said 2024 has "tough compares" for the megacaps unlike last year.

Sarat Sethi pointed out that people are keeping money in cash because they can get 5% "guaranteed."

Joe and Judge indicated the timing of a rate cut may not be a big deal, as Judge said "so what" about March and Joe said the Fed is "no longer adversarial."



Weiss buys ADM (not AMD)


Steve Weiss on Monday's (2/5) Halftime Report said he had been watching the trouble at ADM, including accounting issues in a "relatively small part of the business," and bought shares seeing an "opportunity" for a return to the old high of $80.

Joe Terranova said CAT's outperformance is "idiosyncratic" with the rest of industrials.

Amy Raskin said Jay Powell is "very happy with where the economy's going."

Weiss said he owns UBER because of "scarcity value" and the "CEO's phenomenal." (This writer is long UBER.)

That led to some interesting Trade School from Sarat Sethi, who owns UBER but affirmed he "took some money off at the beginning of this year" because it's "highly valued."

(Honestly, it seems like a lot of money managers follow Closet Indexing 101, sell your winners, keep your losers, and when selling your winners, simply putting the proceeds into some other stock that's been someone else's winner.)

You knew this was coming: Sarat said, "I bought it when it was back in the low 20s." (Editor's note: Panelists' cost basis have no impact on where a stock is going.) Sarat said, "I have to be prudent as a risk manager." (Translation: Hardly different than owning the SPY.)

Joe Terranova said UBER could "very easily" get to the 80s.



Closing Bell regular tells Judge, ‘Valuations don’t matter in the short term’


On Friday's Closing Bell, Cameron Dawson told Judge something kind of interesting:

"What we find in history is that valuations don't matter in the short term; they matter 2, 5 years out."

Of course, Judge didn't pursue this subject, even though it's by far the most interesting topic on the Halftime Report in 2024.

Numerous Halftime panelists, including Bryn Talkington, Joe Terranova, Liz Young and Josh Brown, have already in 2024 or late 2023 basically stated that P.E. ratio is a "terrible" (Liz's and Bryn's word) way of timing a stock decision.

This page agrees. But some panelists who are asked about any stock on the show always, like some kind of pet-store parrot, begin by stating the P.E. ratio and whether the stock is "cheap" or "too expensive" or "fairly valued." (Instead, of you know, actually opining, "I think this business' outlook is getting better" or "I think this business' outlook is getting worse," because that's apparently too difficult.)

The odd thing about Dawson's comment on Friday is that we don't get in the slightest how a 2-year-old or 5-year-old P.E. ratio could possibly matter; did the META P.E. ratio in February 2019 predict this week's move?




Grandpa Mike Wilson reassigned at Morgan Stanley


Judge reported rare breaking news on Friday's (2/2) Closing Bell, saying "a source confirms to me" that Mike Wilson is leaving Morgan Stanley's Investment Committee, according to an "internal memo."

Judge said Wilson will stay with the firm but work with "institutional clients," according to the memo.

Mike Santoli said Wilson has been "pretty conspicuous" while "somewhat (snicker) fighting the overall trend at the S&P 500 index level." Santoli said it's "very much too soon" to know whether this means "bears are capitulating."

Judge mentioned the "Fire & Ice" (snicker) note and others in which Wilson argued "the market shouldn't be trading where it is ... in fact, it hasn't happened," and Wilson had an "underestimation of what megacap would mean for the overall market," Judge stated.

Mike may protest, but this page does not think it's inaccurate to call him a "Permabear." Maybe not 100% of the time, but well over 50% in the last 6-7 years. But it doesn't seem like a technically correct term, so we opted for the more folksy label in the headline above. Our beef with Mike is that on basically every CNBC appearance, he's claiming — after issuing base case/best case/worst case ranges all the time with numbers big enough to drive trucks through — he's somehow right, no matter what the market is doing.



Tom Lee says 5,200 is ‘probably a little low’


For Friday's (2/2) Closing Bell, Judge managed to land Tom Lee, who said the stock market is "getting stronger" in 2024.

Lee contended, "Inflation I think is falling basically like a rock."

Lee said that given the strength of the market in January, "5,200's probably a little low" for a year-end forecast.



Karen laments having to make a ‘portfolio management’ decision because META surged, says GM eventually will be ‘sadly very behind’ in EV race


Friday's (2/2) Halftime Report included all sorts of Brag Trades about META.

Joe Terranova said the JOET picked up META at 240. Stephanie Link claimed, "I made 170%" before selling.

The star guest was Brad Gerstner; for the 3rd or 4th time, Judge rehashed Gerstner's letter to META about a year and a half ago. Brad said Friday he stressed AI in his META letter, and sure enough, the company "doubled down on AI."

Even so, Judge said when Brad wrote the letter to Zuck & Co., "He kinda gave you the Heisman for a moment."

(By the way, it seems like both Judge and Brad have given the Heisman to Brad’s initiative of The Board Challenge of a couple years ago, given that Brad hasn't even mentioned it in ages and didn't demand that companies he invested in take part in it.)

Joe and Stephanie also defended AAPL. "They have a China problem," Judge blurted.

Meanwhile, Jason Snipe said, "We remain extremely bullish on Amazon."

Much of the show (we should've anticipated this) involved a Q&A on every single stock affected by the JOET algorithm. The JOET sold BRK-B; Joe said "it" bought that stock in October at 341 and sold at 384. Joe said Berkshire will never score high on return on equity.

Joe also said "the strategy was dramatically overweight energy" and sold 8 of 16 names. (Tim Seymour tried talking up energy on Fast Money.)

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said the META gain is "delightful on the one hand, but then it's sort of, 'Oh shoot, now what do I do,' right," because it's gotten big enough to cause a "portfolio management issue." Karen added, "I will be selling upside calls," at least 1 quarter out and probably in the "550 range."

Karen said she gave up on GM too soon. Karen said the stock is "not crazy expensive now (P.E. ratio alert)," but "I come back to, the EV race, which I think will be on again at some point, and they're gonna be sadly very behind." Steve Grasso said he's "not a hater" of Elon Musk but "a lot of the investment community seems to hate him and want to take it out on his stock."



Karen said Wednesday that she’d be ‘surprised’ if the market’s drop on Wednesday didn’t continue Thursday; instead it was nearly erased in 1 day


In the opening topic of Thursday's (2/1) Halftime Report, Bryn Talkington said AAPL is at that point where, "Is there really that big of a difference between the 14 and the 15?"

Bryn predicts AAPL will keep having a "hangover" from the COVID "pull forward."

Steve Weiss asserted that "Apple was the poster child for just a way too, you know, bullish 2023. ... I think it's overvalued here."

Josh Brown noted that META is "actually more expensive than AAPL." But Josh said the tech giants are "not overbought," though META is close.

Josh credited Amazon's growth: "In 3 years, Amazon became the 3rd-largest, uh, advertising platform in the world." Citing NFLX, Brown said, "Actually, the subscribers that are on the ad tier are more profitable than the subscribers paying full price on the premium tier."

Bryn Talkington shrugged that over the last 2 years, AMZN has been "dead money."

Later in the day on Closing Bell, Joe Terranova said he wants to "hear the vision for AI" at AAPL. Joe asserted, "For the very first time, I don't think the analysts are afraid to downgrade AAPL anymore."

On Fast Money, which was heavily attuned to the latest Magnificent 7 earnings, Karen Finerman said she doesn't know why META would declare a small dividend other than to maybe qualify it for inclusion in certain indexes. Karen said she thinks she'll sell some calls against META.

Karen likes the ETSY announcement and bought some more of the stock. "I love the asset-light model that they have," Karen said.

Guy Adami said if INTC gets to "38-ish," then you "buy with both hands."



Josh buys in to a falling bank, as Jim and Kari did in March 2023


Steve Weiss on Thursday's (2/1) Halftime Report said Wednesday's market action was "really overdone," that apparently the prospect of later rate cuts moved the market, but Weiss said he's been in the camp of cuts happening in the 2nd half of the year for a long time already.

He said the selloff would be a "great buying opportunity, but for tonight," when there are several tech earnings reports. (Editor's note: Stocks on Thursday nearly recouped all the losses Wednesday.) (This review was posted overnight Thursday/Friday.)

Weiss said the "biggest surprise" is that there's 42% belief in a March rate cut. Weiss said the economy would have to take a "precipitous decline" by March for that to happen. Judge said UBS is "sticking with March," while Goldman has "moved to May."

Josh Brown bought NYCB on Wednesday's crash. Josh joked that "the No. 1 rule of picking stocks" is that you never, ever buy a stock based on Long Island. Judge said "It's your home, for those who don't know," while Josh said "I can say that. You can't say that," noting Judge lives in "Jersey."

"It's a trade," Josh said of NYCB, stressing, "I don't know any more than anyone else does." But it sounds to him like they "got in way over their head" on Signature, they're not ready to be this size, and this is the quarter they admitted it.

Josh said the KRE has had "the worst 2-day stretch" since the March 2023 bank stress.



Weiss says China has an ‘unstable government’


Judge on Thursday's (2/1) Halftime Report played a clip of Jeffrey Gundlach touting the INDA a day ago. Steve Weiss owns it, he said "I bought it before Jeff came on with that."

Weiss said China is "antagonistic" to foreign companies and has an "unstable government." He added, "As rates come down, emerging markets do better."

Josh said "Weiss is gonna make some money here" but questioned why Steve didn't buy the EPI. (Honestly, we don't doubt that India may well be a promising trade, but piling in to the INDA, dunno, just seems Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.)

Judge rattled off Jefferies' "hidden in plain sight" (snicker) top picks for 2024, including AMGN, BA, CAT, ULTA, MLM, MCD, MDLZ.

Sarat Sethi is long MLM and backed the name. Josh shrugged of the group that "they don't seem hidden to me," and he's "never liked the idea" of stocks that have to bet on the global economy.

Bryn Talkington referred to DXCM and said she's looking at it and pronounced it twice "dexecom" (sic). Weiss said he's looked at DXCM but "there are so many glucose-monitoring devices out there."

Sarat said QCOM didn't give enough guidance. He said of HON, "You buy this one on a dip." He predicted MRK "will do well for the next couple years."

Sarat owns CVX and acknowledged it's been an "underperformer for a year," as Jason Snipe said a day ago.



Josh must’ve gotten Dan Dolev’s attention a few weeks ago (a/k/a at least Dan didn’t say the stocks are ‘hidden in plain sight’)


Judge on Thursday's (2/1) Halftime Report brought in Dan Dolev of Mizuho, who's got 3 "under-the-radar" (per screen text) stocks in AI, which are ACN, EPAM, GLOB.

Dan didn't just join remotely, he took a seat at Post 9. Dan said there's lots of AI hype, but "these guys do the work." Dolev pointed out that ACN's cloud business 10 years ago was $1 billion but $32 billion last year. He said his picks are "like an ETF on AI."

Dolev spoke while some fellow behind him at the NYSE played with a basketball. (That was for the IPO of AS, which made a lot of noise at the end of the Halftime Report, prompting Judge to chuckle.)

Steve Weiss reaffirmed that he's long VRT, which makes the cooling systems for data centers.

Dolev might've been appearing on the show because on the Jan. 16 Halftime Report, Josh credited Dolev as being "among the finest" of fintech analysts.



Jeffrey Gundlach still calling for recession in 2024


On Wednesday's (1/31) Closing Bell, Judge's star guest was again Jeffrey Gundlach, and Judge asked Jeffrey if he's still calling for a recession.

"Yes I am, in 2024, Yes I am," Jeffrey said, adding that "When I hear the word 'Goldilocks,' I- I get nervous."

Judge told Jeffrey that "I got a text a few moments ago from somebody who's on my Investment Committee saying, Buy bonds, plain and simple." (We're guessing that person was Weiss, but we don't know.)



Joe predicts down market ‘over the next 30 days’


Judge opened Wednesday's (1/31) Halftime Report asking Stephanie Link why she sold Alphabet (apparently GOOGL but perhaps could've been GOOG too). (This writer is long GOOGL.) Everyone should've known the answer (see several headlines on this page below): "'Cause I made a lot of money in it."

Meanwhile, Jason Snipe sold CVX, because, he said, "It's been an underperformer; last year was down 17%."

Joe Terranova predicted that "over the next 30 days, I think the Nasdaq will be, at best, sideways, and at worst, will be down. I think the next 30 days, the market will be going down. That's what's in front of us. We had a similar setup last January."

Joe actually said that bond rate activity overnight should've triggered a big market rotation. "I'm incredibly disappointed in the price action ... you should have seen an intramarket rotation away from megacaps into the small caps. ... The Russell has fallen apart today," Joe said.

Joe explained, "At 2:30 in the morning when I was stealing a treat out of the refrigerator and staring at the screen, it was 3.98 for a 10-year ... there should've been rotation to the- to the other areas of the market that didn't get the love in 2023."

Judge wondered why Joe had this expectation, stating, "I don't know that you would see it" until we hear from Jay Powell.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said "bonds had already moved- yields lower, bonds higher," before the Fed commentary. "We were set up for some kind of pullback," Karen concluded, "and if this is all there is, I'd be surprised."

Back on Halftime, Rob Sechan briefly joined the show remotely to zip through a bunch of stocks he owns, starting with a new buy in VRSK. "It's a capital-light defensive grower," Rob explained.

Judge wondered why Rob bought EBAY, it's "been a loser." Rob said it's a "value company with really low expectations" and it's "still an incredibly profitable business."

Rob bought PNGAY and said it's expected to turn around.

Rob bought more ADBE and said it's "on the forefront of monetizing AI" (snicker). Rob trimmed MCD and said the growth has been coming from price hikes, not volume. He also sold 3 others that were "enormous, enormous winners for us." (Ah, the 2nd person employing that strategy on Wednesday's show.)

Jason Snipe said SYK remains a leader and he continues to like the stock.

Joe said, "We are still in a manufacturing recession," which he thinks is reflected in ROK.

Joe is "pretty excited about Mastercard." Joe suggested the "next target" for LULU may be 435.



Judge still hasn’t told us how many viewers canceled Peacock subscriptions when the clock hit 0:00


Tuesday's (1/30) Halftime Report was basically filler until the tech earnings later in the day. (Neither Judge nor Terranova wanted to talk about pro football and the Baltimore Ravens' curious playoff strategy, but whatever.)

Joe Terranova said "clearly, Copilot" is what we want to hear about from MSFT.

"Is the bar high? Of course the bar is high," Joe said. But Joe said we'd have to hear "something incredibly ominous" to flip the megacap trend.

Josh Brown predicted a "really exciting report."

Jim Lebenthal dialed in to cheer GM's guidance and the stock reaction. Jim predicted GM is "goin' past" its 52-week high of 43. As he does in every appearance for at least a decade, Jim said GM's doing great. And as he hasn't done in every appearance for at least a decade, Jim did not mention a single product that this company makes.

On a big tech earnings day, Judge decided to bring in the panel's biggest tech skeptic, which is like listening to someone tell you for 6 years running that the Kansas City Chiefs are overrated and you're a lot better off rooting for the Tennessee Titans. No thanks.



Joe: Valuations might get richer


Judge asked Joe Terranova at the top of Monday's (1/29) Halftime Report what's "at stake" for the market this week. Joe pointed to MSFT and said its earnings report is "absolutely critical" (snicker) and said megacap expectations are "incredibly high," though Joe said it'd be "very difficult" to reverse the market's positive momentum.

Bill Baruch said if MSFT misses "a little bit," it doesn't mean the rally's over, but a "big whiff somewhere" could stoke fears.

Steve Weiss deadpanned that MSFT is "the most important, uh, report of the week, until Wednesday." Weiss pointed out that TSLA is already bouncing back from last week's disaster, so the market right now is "pretty forgiving."

(Whoa, wait a minute ... TSLA is going to be valued like a "car company" from now on, according to a Halftime Report panelist last week.)

Weiss also mentioned the "new population" of investors that wants to "like what they know" and not get hung up on data points. (Translation: He's frustrated by what he sees as a younger crowd of investors who aren't as pessimistic as he tends to be.)

Joe said that unlike Jonathan Krinsky, he doesn't see the "signs of exhaustion." Joe questioned the constant references to the "historical valuation" of certain tech companies and even said, "We might see valuations grow even richer than where they are now (sic last 5 words redundant)."

Judge listed Bill's top holdings, which sounds a lot like the QQQ, which would be simpler.

Weiss said it's "only natural" to have a "pause" in the market at some point.

Joe said it would be "more than normal" (snicker) for the market to enter a "consolidation range." Bill said that would be "really healthy" but that we could "grind higher if a rotation happens."

Joe is buying really short dated calls in the IWM as a Fed play for this week. Joe said it's "literally (sic not actually literally) insurance on the portfolio" for either a "broadening out" or "disinversion of the yield curve."



Judge knows the point spreads (but apparently can’t share any thoughts on Baltimore Ravens strategy)


On Monday's (1/29) Halftime Report, CNBC gambling reporter Contessa Brewer joined the Post 9 set to report on the Flutter listing on the NYSE.

Brewer said FanDuel got "60,000 bets per minute" during the conference championship games, which is "10,000 more than during the Super Bowl last year."

Brewer said the Super Bowl this year will feature "big market teams" (um, not exactly). Judge said, "Spread's close too, so you're gonna get- you get a lot of money on, on both sides of the ledger."

That was interesting, because we thought Judge, or at least Terranova, might question exactly what the Baltimore Ravens were planning to do on Sunday, given that CBS' Tony Romo announced that the Ravens were hoping to give Patrick Mahomes some hits when he runs with the ball (that worked out well for the Cincinnati Bengals in last year's AFC Championship Game) and other people noticed that despite being the league's top rushing team, the Ravens apparently don't bother with handoffs, preferring their quarterback run the ball from a broken pocket ... on nearly every snap ...

Meanwhile, Judge and Leslie Picker reported that Jim Esposito is exiting GS. "A really good guy," Judge and Leslie agreed. Leslie thinks that for Esposito, it's "time to try something new." Steve Weiss said this departure is among the "normal turn of events" at these Wall Street giants.

Judge said Bernstein is bullish on UBER. (This writer is long UBER.) Joe Terranova said it's a "great note." Judge said "it's up 120% in a year." Joe said, "No one knows how high is high and how low is low."

Bill Baruch mentioned the delivery space for Uber and even said "the moon is the possibility here," which seemed like a bit of hyperbole. Weiss credited Dara for changing the company and culture and said the valuation will get lower. Unlike Bill, Weiss knocked "last mile delivery."

Bill said the Street may be underestimating the runway for ABBV's long-term drug proceeds, and "hedge funds are short this name."

Bill sold SHEL, saying he's a little concerned about "growth outside of the U.S."

Weiss made TSM his Final Trade: "I would buy it; I think it goes higher."



Jenny claims that for any stock with a 57 P.E., the story’s over


Jenny Harrington was on Friday's (1/26) Halftime Report, and honestly, it got to the point we had to put the show on mute and just enjoy CNBC's slick new graphic motif.

Generally, it's good for a page like this when people utter headline-making pronouncements, as Jenny did repeatedly. (There were so many, we can't even make headlines out of all of them.)

But at some point, enough already.

Jenny told Judge that the stock market views rate cuts as "stimulating."

Judge stated, "They will be."

Jenny argued, "OK but they shouldn't be"; rather Jenny thinks they're merely "normalizing."

Judge insisted that's still "stimulative" and that "2% is better than 5%."

Meanwhile, "I'm really cautious going into next week," Jenny offered. Judge asked why. Jenny said "there's a lot of hope and expectation" in stocks.

Then Jenny at one point actually said, "The problem is, that when something trades at 57 times earnings, no matter how great it is, the story and the valuation no longer work."

"That's the argument that people who haven't been in the right stocks continue to make," Judge said. "They justify it by 'the valuations are too rich,' whereas the valuations have been justified in many respects by the guidance and the promise and in even a greater degree, the monetization that's already being realized."



Jenny says TSLA now trades like a car company, META will never have another 2023 again, calls Bryn ‘a little callous’


A discussion about Glen Kacher and TSLA quickly ramped up into a P.E. ratio argument on Friday's (1/26) Halftime Report.

Judge started asking if the "AI 5" is the place to be; he said that a day earlier on Closing Bell, Glen Kacher "coined that AI 5," which is apparently MSFT, NVDA, AMD, TSM and AVGO. (But Kacher also likes META.)

Judge said Kacher knocked TSLA out of the Mag 7; Judge said TSLA was having a "dumpster fire" this year and this week.

Josh Brown said of Kacher, "That dude is really smart," but Brown said the same list could've been made in 1998 with presumably different stocks, as Brown pointed to INTC and CSCO (he left out JDS Uniphase) being not the same stocks or companies really for long afterward.

Bryn Talkington then invoked/provoked a fellow panelist by name. "Jenny obviously runs an equity-income, so, so, so that aside, but I think it's important, valuations and multiples are really a terrible timing mechanism. I think fundamentally, I feel like, 'Well this is just too rich for me,' I get it," Bryn said. Nevertheless, "You could drive a bus through the difference an Intel and an AMD and an Nvidia," Bryn said.

Given a chance a few moments later, Jenny said it's "so cool" that the conversation is transitioning from Mag 7 to AI 5 because "that's leadership rotation," even though Jenny won't tout any of the stocks in either this old or new "leadership."

Jenny then said, "Bryn, you know Bryn, I think you were a little callous in saying valuation's a trap, but actually it's not. Because for the last 3 years, I've been saying Tesla should be priced more like a car company. And there are all these arguments, no it's a tech company, no it's a battery company, you know what, it's behaving like a car company and it's being priced like a car company."

Judge tried to defend Bryn. "I think Bryn to be fair, I think her greater point is don't buy or sell or trade stocks around just because of valuation-" Judge started to say.

"You have to have it both working!" Jenny said. "You could make the argument for valuation on Microsoft and the story. You could make the argument for valuation on Nvidia and the story."

Judge said if you sold NVDA 6 months ago based on valuation, "This is the exact reason why you don't."

Jenny insisted META has been "kicked out" (snicker) of market leadership along with TSLA. Judge said "Meta is working," and Jenny said, "It's not going to be the leadership, at least according to the AI 5."

"How do you know??" questioned Josh Brown.

"Meta just had its best year ever," Judge said.

"It's not going to have that kind of year again in the future," Jenny continued, then saying with a straight face, "You don't sell something just because of the valuation," when she and a few others on the show regularly speak of doing just that. "You have to look at the valuation, otherwise you're gonna sit in a Tesla, ride it down, 50%," Jenny added.

(So, we wondered, how is Jenny's TSLA short doing. Ah. According to CNBC.com disclosures, she's not short TSLA or anything else.)

Bryn responded, "Tesla's one of the best-performing stocks of all time. In the last 5 years, it's up over 800%. So, so, let's just like not pile on Tesla because the past 2 quarters, they're in a transition ... if you don't wanna buy Tesla that's fine, but to say it's like a dumpster fire (those were Judge's words, earlier) and not done well, that's just- that's just not accurate, by the way."

Judge said it's a "dumpster fire recently; so I'm not talking about a 5-year, 20-year chart, you know what I mean?"

Without effectively stating that P.E. is a past-tense effect of market enthusiasm for the stock and that stock prices move based on whether people think the business outlook is getting better or worse, Bryn correctly concluded, "There's no reason Microsoft should trade at a 35 or whatever it is, it's just that the market thinks that's the multiple it should be. A year from now, it could say, it should be at 20. And so that's where I think that valuations can be a trap."



Josh is right. INTC was cheap the whole time.


In another discussion about a tech stock on Friday's (1/26) Halftime, Judge said the market was "obviously mispricing Intel," because it was getting "crushed" on Friday.

During the INTC conversation, which included Kristina Partsinevelos, who might as well be a full-time panelist on the show, Josh Brown started hectoring Jenny Harrington about how well INTC has done against the entire rest of the field in its sector.

Judge said the control room found that INTC is down 29% since Feb. 15, 2021. Josh cut in, "And it was cheap the whole time."

Jenny insisted of INTC, "This is in our Disciplined Growth Strategy, where there is a very, very disciplined process, which is look for companies with a 5% or better free cash flow yield, where there's earnings growth on top of it." It seems to us from listening to Jenny for years on this program, this "very very disciplined process" amounts to looking at a spreadsheet and running an algorithm. (It's so "very very disciplined" that Jenny is long 97 stocks, according to CNBC.com disclosures.)

Jenny sold PANW.



Steve Liesman says ‘March is too early,’ suggests 3 quarter-point cuts


On Friday's (1/26) Halftime Report, Josh Brown predicted the core PCE will give the market a "decent tailwind."

Brown hailed Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro. Brown said Dutta was the "only Wall Street economist" who said a year ago, "no recession in 2023."

Josh said, "Neil thinks they go in March." Brown said the 2-year/10-year spread is "about to uninvert."

Jim Lebenthal cautioned, "The earnings season so far is not good," but he thinks it can get better.

"I don't think the Fed's gonna go in March," said Bryn Talkington, predicting they wait for another meeting. Bryn even brought up Arthur Burns and the "proverbial 1970s."

A couple hours later on Closing Bell, Steve Liesman said he thinks "3 quarter-point cuts is probably the best, uh, bet this year" and that "March is too early."

Jeremy Siegel on Closing Bell said he thinks the Fed next week will be "really reluctant to say they're gonna be lowering rates soon."

Jeremy stated, "I still think we can get 8-10% for the year," which, given January's run, isn't that earth-shattering. But Jeremy mentioned government "threats" (snicker) to Big Tech and suggested "lower P.E. stocks" (snicker) for that scenario.

Jeremy actually said growth stocks could have "perhaps a zero year" while value is up 10-15%. (We've heard that one before. Like, basically, every January.)

Back on Halftime, Josh Brown is "gradually" adding to SNAP. He joked that "I should probably have my head examined for adding to it before the quarter."

Jenny Harrington bragged about URI and trimming it.



Weiss says Fed has ‘really threaded the needle’


The highlight of Thursday's (1/25) Halftime Report had to be the presence of Steve Weiss, who hasn't been on in about a couple weeks (at least we think it's been a couple of weeks).

We figured we'd get a good quote, and we did, as Weiss stated: "The Fed has really threaded the needle."

Weiss wondered if the market has become "almost valuation agnostic" and all about "execution" and "opportunity." He said he's "more worried" about the market now because of "the enthusiasm."

But Judge noted Weiss added to TSM and QQQ, so he's still invested in places of "alleged froth." Weiss said he thinks, just like last year, it's the megacaps that are working. "Taiwan Semi has pricing power," Weiss said, with "limited capacity."

Weiss touted the gains in VRT, which he said is "the cooling systems for data centers." He added to it last week, as well as TDG. He said he likes those names, though "it's hard work finding them."



People on Halftime tend to sell stocks based on their personal gain/loss more than any other factor


Judge opened Thursday's (1/25) Halftime Report with news of Josh Brown selling AMD.

Josh said he bought AMD on Halloween and "I think I was up like 87% in the name." He said NVDA in the same time is up 51%, "and I just don't wanna own both." Brown cited the RSI and stated, "Technically, it's overbought" and said it's had an "average daily return of 1%."

Josh said if AMD surges 20% after earnings, "I feel like I could live with it."

Bill Baruch trimmed NVDA and AMD and said it's like they've already had an "earnings beat" before the earnings.

Judge said the chip sector raises questions about "exuberance" and "froth." (Somehow, Kristina Partsinevelos wasn't on the show, though she was at the Nasdaq for Fast Money.)

Steve Weiss said Josh had a "phenomenal trade" and he applauds the "portfolio management."

On Fast Money, Dan Nathan said NVDA's earnings "could be an accident waiting to happen."



Bryn says TSLA is ‘dead money’ for a couple months; Weiss predicts sub-$100


Judge on Thursday's (1/25) Halftime Report brought in Bryn Talkington, who wasn't part of the day's panel, to talk TSLA.

Bryn said "forget the stock name" (as if that's possible), she listened to the call and it missed on revenue and earnings expectations, which Bryn said caused about a third of the stock slide, and the other 2/3 was the guidance.

Bryn said the stock is down "appropriately" and that "short term, the stock is in no-man's land." She wants to see it base around 180, but it might base in the 160s. Bryn predicted "dead money over the next couple months."

Bryn told Josh Brown that Elon Musk and the TSLA board will have to work something out because they're "inextricably combined" and it's unlikely he'd just go "innovate somewhere else."

Judge said Dan Ives is saying Thursday that he was "dead wrong" on TSLA expectations from Closing Bell a day earlier and that it was "another train wreck conference call."

Bryn agreed it was a bad call and said Elon bluntly admitted that "I don't know" what margins are going to be.

Later, at the end of the A Block, Steve Weiss asked to talk about TSLA; Judge said Weiss had to be "real quick."

Weiss said he's short TSLA and bought more puts. "There is no there. The best days are far behind it," Weiss said, adding it's "highly, highly important" that Musk said for the first time that unless there are tariffs on Chinese carmakers, "they're gonna own the world."

So Musk is really saying "I am really really worried," Weiss said, arguing the stock "should break a hundred."

Weiss also said it's "ludicrous" for Musk to be concerned about an activist; "there's no activist coming in." Weiss also said people were "p---ed off" that Jack Dorsey was running 2 companies; "what about Elon."

Weiss called Elon "an unstable genius running half a dozen companies."



Weiss stopped out on HUM


At the end of the A Block on Thursday's (1/25) Halftime Report, Judge brought up HUM and asked Steve Weiss about getting "stopped out" before Thursday's earnings.

Weiss said he had put on the trade around Jan. 9 and got stopped out last week, and he also sold UNH. "They're just not working," he said, and it'll get "even tougher" in an election year.

Weiss said they make money off their Medical Loss Ratio, which is now 90% and they really need it closer to 80%.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said the MLR made a "huge" difference in HUM profits. Karen said, almost in disbelief, "I don't understand at all" why they weren't better at assessing the MLR and how HUM seemed to botch "the delivery of that bad news."



Josh says PYPL is attempting ‘the stupidest thing I’ve ever seen’


Judge on Thursday's (1/25) Halftime Report couldn't let a day go by without mentioning PYPL, noting the "sharp decline" while the company was holding its "Innovation Day."

Moments later, CNBC's Kate Rooney reported that PYPL is "launching a bunch of new AI products." Josh Brown said, "It's the stupidest thing I've ever seen."

Judge said UBS raised its BRK-B price target from 410 to 435.

Meanwhile, "There is so much money in P.E. they are literally chasing people down the hallway to give it to any business owner who has positive free cash flow," Josh stated. Josh said "they live on the 2" of the "2 and 20."

Bill Baruch thinks WDC has "higher to go." Josh suggested Bill "relax" during his highly detailed Final Trade of SCCO. #soundbites,please "This isn't beginning trades," Judge cracked.

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said there was "a lot to like" in the URI earnings.




Karen likens Tesla-vs.-Detroit to action movies, says TSLA should ramp up pricing pressure


Karen Finerman on Wednesday's (1/24) Fast Money bluntly stated that TSLA should be cutting prices and "should just be putting as much pressure as they possibly can on the GMs and Fords."

Karen explained, "My husband and I watch one of those, you know, action movies, they always leave the villain almost dead, but they kick the gun to the side, right. ... You have to kill him again."

Steve Grasso countered, "If they do step on the throat, then they give up the margins."

Later in the show, on an unrelated topic, Tim Seymour questioned, "Do we have to own small caps? I mean, small caps have underperformed for a decade." Steve Grasso said buying small caps is "a bet on interest rates." Karen Finerman likes the small cap space, stating, "the valuation differential is so big now."




Judge didn’t say a word about how many people canceled Peacock after the playoff game


Brian Belski dialed in to Wednesday's (1/24) Halftime Report to cheer NFLX, saying his shop's analyst raised his target to 638.

Belski said adding wrestling is the "real real deal."

That prompted Judge to say, "By the way, uh, the NFL game on Peacock was the single biggest subscriber acquisition moment ever measured by a company called Antenna."

Grandpa Rob Sechan said NFLX and related names are "very capital intensive" and can have "misses, you know, with programming." Belski pointed to consolidation; "I think a year from now we're not gonna have many streaming companies." He said NFLX was "super smart" in building the content library before others did, if they've even tried.

Judge said he'd "shout out the home team again, um, 2.8 million sign-ups, that NFL game got on Peacock." (Obviously CNBC on-air talent must've been nudged to "shout out the home team," because Julia Boorstin mentioned the same numbers on Fast Money.)

Joe Terranova said momentum in FCX is in a "yellow-light type of territory."

Kari Firestone said TMO is a "great franchise" but is "really a '25 story."

Judge said "there's a lot of frustration" in the airline industry about Boeing's issues.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman noted how well NFLX is doing and said the valuation is "not so crazy."



Joe: 2022-24 is like 1994-96


Shortly into Wednesday's (1/24) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova stated, "Here we are, January 24th, and I think everyone's finally coming around to the premise uh that the megacaps are not going away in any regard."

But Joe allowed, "There still is a degree of skepticism."

Countering that, Joe said there's a "template" in which the Fed is "no longer adversarial" and we have "innovation from technology"; as a result, Joe thinks that 2022-24 "correlates so incredibly well" with 1994-96.

Judge said "sure," but we know how it ended "when the music stopped" and got the "record scratched."

Joe said if you're staying out of the market now out of fears of another March 2000, "you have reinvestment risk beyond what you could've possibly imagined." And Joe pointed out that March 2000 took 4 years to occur after 1996.

Stephanie Link bought more AMZN and cited the multiple (interesting when AMZN buyers are citing multiple). Kari Firestone said AMZN could have a big year. Kari mentioned "overstaffed" and "overspending," which are magic words for megacap tech stocks.

Rob Sechan said he got out of AMZN after he thought it pulled forward a lot of gains during the pandemic. Rob said META and Alphabet are the cheapest plays in mega tech.

Judge said MSFT is "already" monetizing AI; it's not a "pipe dream." Rob said MSFT is "the single largest position at NewEdge across all our portfolios, although it's a neutral, kind of remarkable, but it is."

Kari Firestone said MSFT "could go to 500."

Judge said there seems to be "less riding" on the TSLA earnings Wednesday, and Judge wondered why no one on the panel is interested in that stock.

"All of us are probably interested," offered Kari, but Stephanie said no, citing "valuation" (snicker) and "cold stock." Stephanie also said Elon Musk is "volatile." Joe said it was liquidated from the JOET last October because revenue growth "imploded."




Joe gets into scrapes while parsing Judge’s ‘exuberance’ question, faulting Jim’s yield curve timeline


Apparently calling into question the stock market's creep upward to new highs this week, Judge opened Tuesday's (1/23) Halftime Report asking Shannon Saccocia whether there's "too much exuberance."

Shannon said there's a "continuation" in the market and somehow took Judge's question into the conclusion that there's "almost a little bit of a risk-off trade."

Joe Terranova said he's "having difficulty" with Judge's question, stating that the answer to Judge's question is contingent on "what specific market we're talking about."

Judge said, "We're talkin' about the stock market."

Joe insisted we have "complete bifurcation in terms of performance." Joe said there's "exuberance" about monetary policy, but not in the stock market.

"I do not think we're in an exuberant phase," said Jim Lebenthal, though he doesn't want to "get ahead of my skis and be table-pounding."

Jim said the rest of Ed Yardeni's note about possible exuberance that Judge cited concluded that "we've probably got more room to go." Judge pointed out that Jim's own forecast is for a 5% gain for the rest of the year. Jim said it's because he's "respectful" of certain high multiples such as MSFT's, but he thinks the big part of the market "outside of technology" has room to run.

Judge showed a clip of Cheryl Young saying a day ago on Closing Bell that the market is "priced for perfection." Joe said Cheryl has been "incredibly accurate."

Judge said "money's flowing out of financials." Shannon said people are looking to the 2nd half of the year for that sector to work.

Joe declared, "Let's make this distinction once again: The predominant factor in the market is in non-discretionary algorithmic buying."

Jim and Joe tangled over whether the "algos" are correctly sensing that the yield curve will "disinvert sometime soon." Joe said it will disinvert but no one knows when that will happen and he doesn't want to be guessing when that will happen. Jim said he believes it's "imminent," so he's positioning for it.




Any time Jim debates someone over what a historical P.E. ratio was, we’re betting on Jim


Judge on Tuesday's (1/23) Halftime Report hectored Jim Lebenthal for some reason about buying NVDA last year with an "already elevated" multiple.

Jim said he bought after it had "come down," which is correct. Judge scoffed, "Don't act like it was 50, 50%, come on."

Jim said it "literally" was, pointing to the beginning of 2023 at 60 times.

"The beginning of LAST. YEAR? We're talking about the beginning of LAST. YEAR? Oh my God," Judge scoffed, in a bit of overacting that wouldn't have beaten out Ryan Gosling for an Oscar nomination. We're not sure how Judge has suddenly forgotten that NVDA's multiple shrank last year after the blowout earnings.

Judge said Grandpa Marko Kolanovic is still "defensive" with an underweight in equities and credit and overweight in cash and commodities.

Jim said it's this simple, there's a "grudging lack of acceptance that inflation is coming down."

Joe Terranova said a strong economy doesn't necessarily mean inflation rebounds. Joe said "the momentum is in place" for 5,100 and said there's a "real battle" between humans and the (yes) "non-discretionary algorithmic buying."

Joe's "not particularly excited" about UAL and the airlines. He'd like to see "follow through" in coming days because the charts aren't good.

Jim owns DAL, which he says is "ridiculously cheap." He says he's "terribly frustrated" but "demand is hanging in there" and labor costs are in the rear-view mirror and the Middle East is being factored in. Judge and Joe hectored Jim over airline charts and shrugged that Jim's argument about airlines having better balance sheets doesn't matter to investors.

In a preview of semis, Jim said the bear case is that EVs, which are heavy into semis, aren't as popular as thought. He still finds NXPI a "bargain."

Joe once again was talking up DHI, stating he expects builders will "continue to correct" but he sees a boost from mortgage relief.

Jim said there's no "pizazz" in MMM and it's a "no touch" for him.



Steve Grasso: Fed inclined to cut early to avoid political overtones


On Monday's (1/22) Fast Money, Steve Grasso opined on the Federal Reserve operating in an election year.

"I think you have to front-load these cuts ... you have to stay away from looking political," Grasso said.

"Hmmmmm," Mel said.

Karen Finerman said she doesn't know why the Fed needs to cut now. "Why give it away for free," Karen wondered, adding, "The error of cutting too soon is far greater than the benefit of cutting a little bit early or when people expect." (At first we thought Karen misspoke. But after analyzing this comment, we think it's correct as stated. She's saying that if the cut is justified around March, it's not a big benefit to do it, but if it's not justified, then it's a problem.)

"Why the market goes up every day, I don't really know," Karen admitted.

Karen called the risk/reward in M "pretty compelling." Guy Adami agreed.



An amateur won The American Express; Judge didn’t mention it even though he was there


Quite frankly, Monday's (1/22) Halftime Report was a sleepy program.

So, for headliners, we'll start with Judge reporting that Ed Yardeni is suggesting we might be entering an "exuberant melt-up phase."

Anastasia Amoroso said stocks tend to go up in election years 85% of the time. However, Anastasia said that so far, it's the same "playbook" of 2023. Anastasia said "financials did not deliver on earnings," and the start of the season is "weak," so she thinks the rally could "run out."

Jim Lebenthal noted that "the small caps have not participated year to date. So yes you've got a new high, but it's the same Mag 7 that's leading the way."

Joe Terranova said "the backup in yields" drove money into megacap tech.

Jason Snipe noted semiconductors are up 7% this year. Jason thinks there's still "upside momentum" in NVDA and semis. Joe said the "setup for semis this week" can be a little "complicated."

Judge mentioned AAPL getting 3 downgrades in 8 days. Jason noted MSFT overtaking AAPL in market cap. Jim said he's "not a big believer" in AAPL having a big catalyst, including the goggles that "some people" (e.g., Josh Brown) are touting. But Jim said he thinks algos will "pile on" to AAPL when the yield curve "uninverts."

Joe talked about why he "pared back" UBER at the end of 2023 in an apparent explanation as to why he's not yet paring back CRWD. (This writer is long UBER.)

Jim claimed GM is "still ridiculously cheap." Jim will be claiming a year from now and 2 years from now and 3 years from now that GM is "still ridiculously cheap." Jim said TMO could benefit from improved sentiment in health care.

Kristina Partsinevelos reported that Morgan Stanley actually is making WDC its top chip pick over NVDA.

Jason said he sees "continued upside" with NFLX's subscriber base but he wonders if the effect of the Hollywood strikes will be felt on new content. Karen Finerman on Fast Money said she would "sell upside calls" against NFLX.

Joe said a technical correction in DHI is possible. "Fundamentally, I'm staying in these names," Joe said.

Anastasia said trucking is starting to see some "green shoots" and she likes the sector.

Jim said Warren Buffett's endorsement of changes at C is fine with him.

Joe's Final Trade was C, which Joe said is "breaking out."



Karen: Rally seemed ‘melt-upy’


Friday's (1/19) record-breaking stock market rally didn't impress some of the panelists on Fast Money.

Grandpa Guy Adami stated, "People are clearly pricing in the best-case scenario known to mankind in terms of the stock market rally, and even the most ardent bulls I think have to be concerned when they see days like today."

Bonawyn Eison said he thinks "the very best Goldilocks situation has been priced in."

Courtney Garcia offered, "I do think markets did get ahead of themselves with those 6 cuts for next year" and suggested there's "euphoria" brewing in technology.

Even host Missy Lee declared, "I mean, it's not the greatest set-up going into earnings season to have the markets at a record high."

Karen Finerman said options expiration took place on Friday morning, so as for the market's gains, "I'm not really sure ... It did seem very melt-upy. ... I don't know what to do here."



Panelists not so sure that selling META is the right move


Judge on Friday (1/19) turned up at his latest West Coast trip, The American Express golf tournament (that's correct, as far as we can tell, the tournament is simply called The American Express), in California.

It looked like a fun event, but not necessarily as much fun as Josh Brown's Future-Proof conference at Huntington Beach.

Meanwhile, as Judge conducted business with others remotely in their New York-area homes, including Joe Terranova in his pandemic-era office space, it sounded like not everyone's crazy about cuts.

Stephanie Link stated, "I was out on the road this past week. There are some people that were thinking zero cuts."

Joe said, "The economy is in a much stronger position than many people, myself included, expected," and he "can't remember a time" where the financial services sector is anticipating a rate cut and actually saying "we don't want it."

Judge stated, "I do feel like the market does want rate cuts; maybe it doesn't need the 6 or the 7 that it once thought it might."

Meanwhile, Stephanie Link sold META. Stephanie mentioned how much it's up in the past year and what the multiple is.

"I made a lot of money. I bought it when everyone wanted to sell it," Link said, none of which have anything to do with where the stock is going.

Judge wondered, "What if it's just getting started."

Sarat Sethi said META still has "tailwinds" and doesn't have the "monopoly issue that all the others do."

Joe bluntly stated, "Excluding Tesla ... selling any of the megacaps in the month of January is something I really don't ever want to do again."

Link said she put more money into Amazon.

Shannon Saccocia argued "this year needs to be margin recapture."

In California, Judge asked AmEx CEO and golf tournament host Stephen Squeri if the Fed has done a good job. "I think they have," Squeri said, at least for "the last 6 to 9 months."

"I'm in the soft-landing camp," Squeri said.

Basketball star/exec Danny Ainge said the college landscape of players being compensated is "complicated." Ainge said he does "a little bit" of investing and said he might look at AXP shares after Squeri's appearance.

Sarat said he bought SLB, and with oil at current prices, "there's only upside here." Joe acknowledged "we" are long SLB (that means, from what we can tell from the website, that SLB is in the JOET; Joe apparently doesn't own it personally) but said being overweight energy "just doesn't seem to be working." (Then why is SLB in a "momentum" ETF?)




Karen says Siri is ‘hard of hearing’


Mostly devoid of stuff to talk about, both the Halftime Report and Fast Money on Thursday (1/18) were forced to spend the A Block discussing the Magnificent 7 (despite no news in that subsector).

Bill Baruch opened Halftime, guest hosted by Courtney Reagan, making the same argument that Jim Lebenthal always does, that "Nvidia especially is not an expensive stock right now."

Josh Brown talked about the importance of TSM and noted the strength of AI but conceded, "These stocks have already been huge winners; they're becoming very popular," they're still cyclical and "we might be getting a little bit carried away." Brown suggested Thursday might not be the day to buy NVDA or AMD and predicted a "shake-out" that may not happen until the end of earnings season.

Liz Young stated, "I still don't think that Big Tech is going to be the leader like it was last year. Extremes don't tend to repeat themselves." (And we doubt anyone actually believed Liz's statement, but nobody said anything.)

Bill said if AAPL "gets out above 200," it'll break out and lead the market. Josh said AAPL has had "2 years worth of stock performance out of this thing in like the last 9 months" and it would make "more sense" if it spent time "consolidating below 200."

On Fast Money, a notable AAPL app was under fire. "Siri is one of the worst products ever," said CNBC superfox Karen Finerman. "I think he's hard of hearing, which is a really, really big problem."




Josh says ‘ass’


On Thursday's (1/18) Halftime Report, CNBC's Kate Rooney recapped Mizuho's case against PYPL.

Kari Firestone said she'd been "more than patient" with the stock before finally selling it recently, and now it's got more competition and losing market share and "we have other opportunities."

Josh Brown, who's long PYPL and has been making the case that it's simply oversold, asked Kari why PYPL was up Thursday in the wake of the downgrade.

Kari chuckled, "I don't know; did you buy a lot?"

Bill Baruch suggested it looks like "capitulation" in PYPL and he wouldn't be surprised to see it up maybe 3-5% next week, though it's not on his "radar" and he doesn't see a whole lot of upside.

Kari suggested there could be short covering in PYPL.

Josh suggested 56 as a "pretty good risk management area" for PYPL, claiming "there were no sellers left" at that level. Brown said 3-year downtrends in the Nasdaq 100 are rare but that the company is "wildly profitable."

But Josh concluded, "Everybody knows that Apple is kicking their ass in the shopping cart."

Guest host Courtney Reagan revealed, "I used Apple Pay for the first time like 3 months ago. It was e mbarrassing. Totally embarrassing."



Josh: It would be nice to hear an actual strategy from Nelson Peltz


Thursday's (1/18) Halftime Report included a fresh go-round on DIS in the wake of the latest Nelson Peltz news.

Bill Baruch shrugged that DIS is "not even on my radar" and he doesn't see any reason to buy "until something really changes."

Kari Firestone said Bob Iger was a "master" when he built DIS into what it is; "Unfortunately the media and entertainment world has changed so much that that combi- group of companies no longer work together," Kari said.

Josh Brown said there are "too many players" in streaming and "Netflix won already ... it's the only profitable streaming service, period." But he said DIS is more than streaming, so comparing DIS with NFLX is "a little bit apples and oranges."

Josh said "every day" that Disney doesn't do anything with ABC and ESPN, they are "worth less." He said DIS has a "good point" about Peltz; "It would be nice if we heard more from Nelson Peltz on what the actual strategy is, other than, 'Just give me a board seat.'"



‘Knife fights over lounge chairs’ (a/k/a when 8 means 4)


Josh Brown on Thursday's (1/18) Halftime Report said the "wealth effect" explains why consumers are spending money with rates so high. Josh said most spending is by the wealthy, and housing values have "stopped going down" and 401(k)s are at "all-time record highs for most normal people with a normal allocation." He said that when you've got a lot of money in the bank, look at "how much cash your cash is throwing off."

Brown claimed some friends of his actually reported "knife fights over lounge chairs" in Aruba.

Late into Halftime, Josh offered a "Trade School" on a group of slumping stocks he called "The Hateful Eight" of the Nasdaq, which sounded a bit like the old "Dogs of the Dow." Instead of 8 names, however, the screen text only showed 4 stocks; Brown's list included SIRI, PYPL, MRNA, ILMN.

Josh questioned why JBLU would have wanted to buy Spirit. "It didn't make any sense," agreed Kari Firestone.

Bill Baruch bought LDOS, "a great place to be," and URI. He sold SLB.

Liz Young, who in general offers no trades of any kind, was asked to provide a contrarian trade and suggested the DBB. But she urged, "Keep it tiny." Bill Baruch's contrarian trade iS SPPP.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said HUM's drop "sort of intrigues me," though she'll invoke the "3-day rule" before buying.

Karen was shaking her head about COIN's valuation, stating, "I don't get it."




Jenny actually would be ‘thrilled’ if stocks end the year flat


Rob Sechan got to bat leadoff on Wednesday's (1/17) Halftime Report, another episode that included nothing on pro football, stating people came into 2024 "expecting the best," and "markets are pushing back against that narrative," and there's a "wide range of outcomes" that are possible for stocks.

(Well, usually in mid-January, there are still probably a "wide range of outcomes" for any year.)

Rob said Tom Lee's 5,200 would be "nirvana" or "near perfection." But Rob thinks we'll be "challenged throughout the year."

Jim Lebenthal stated, "I'm not waking up in the middle of the night worrying about the markets," but he acknowledged this is a "heavy tape," which he chalked up to the market weighing how we might get no rate cut in March, though we're "very likely to get one in May."

Judge aired the clip of Jamie Dimon on Squawk Box stressing, of course, caution. Jenny Harrington said she thinks there's too much optimism and the market's "offsides," though she's not expecting a "big crash or a huge retraction." Jenny said if we get a "perfect scenario," the S&P would get to ... 4,900.

In a startling revelation of low expectations, Jenny even said, "I would be thrilled if we end this year flat, after a plus-26% year."

Joe Terranova said the risk to markets is with monetary policy, "that they do stay too long." Joe said we're seeing that "capital is frozen" because we're "challenged by a 10-year Treasury above 10(sic meant 4)(snicker)%." (Judge didn't correct.)

Judge turned to P.E. ratios to suggest the market might be overvalued and aired his clip from Closing Bell a day ago in which Valuation Guru Aswath said stocks are in a "dangerous place." Rob said Aswath is right in the short term, that it's a "very frothy" market.

Judge and Jim somehow tangled over whether stocks are too expensive as Jim parsed which of the FANGMA is overpriced (not all of it, he practically went through it stock by stock) and declared that small caps are definitely not and also bond rates and P.E. ratios were higher in the '90s. Jenny said small caps are always cheap compared with the S&P but "what matters" is whether they're cheap compared with historical levels and right now "they're stupidly cheap." Joe said the conversation was "kinda all over the place."

Jim said there's "a lot" of other stuff affecting markets. "The Middle East is this/close, this close to blowin' up." Then Judge and Jim and Joe discussed the yield curve. Joe touted IBKR and the "fantastic job" on 72% pretax margins and hung a $100 on the stock.



Jenny’s been averaging down on JBLU


Jenny Harrington on Wednesday's (1/17) Halftime Report revealed that her shop bought JBLU at $14 before the Spirit deal was announced, expecting $2 in earnings and a 10 multiple.

Jenny admitted it's been a "huge miss for us."

Judge wondered why she's still holding it. Jenny said it's because the whole way down, her shop thinks it's been a buy. Jenny admitted she's "not sure" they've had a "sound" investment thesis on this stock. Jenny compared it with owning INTC, where they "stuck it out." Joe Terranova said he can tell that Jenny doesn't think JBLU is INTC.

Judge noted the Mizuho price target cut of BABA and the stock's 52-week low. Rob Sechan owns it, citing the "contrarian play" of China. (Even so, BABA wasn't his contrarian play later on, see below.) "There's a turnaround story here," Rob said.

Joe took viewers through his re-acquisition of MS in Q4 after getting shaken out in October; he said he's "disappointed in myself" for rebuying the stock based on momentum, given the "earnings repoint (sic)."

Judge asked Jenny why she keeps holding KSS. Jenny said all retailers are different and it's "super committed" to an 8% yield, though she is concerned about a "cap on late fees."

Judge is still forcing panelists to cough up "contrarian" trades; Rob Sechan offered the IBB. Judge rattled off other holdings of Rob; Rob said, "You have incredible visibility into what we're doing there." Judge said, "We sort of demand transparency on this program." Jim Lebenthal said he'd rather pick individual stocks than go with the index. Rob said he agrees but is suggesting IBB "for the viewers."

Joe said he agrees with Goldman's upgrade of MNST, it's "clearly in the sweet spot."

Jenny is "completely unfazed" by the 5% dip in XPO. (At least Judge didn't ask her why she still owns that one.)

Jim was heard on open mike during cut to commercial about being called "Jimmy."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said she's long NFLX though she has to "wrestle" with it because of the ... you guessed it ... valuation. "It's hard to argue that it's super-cheap." Nevertheless, Karen said, "I am really warming a lot to the idea of dominating a business is worth a big premium."

Steve Grasso noted other streamers may not be dropping out but are "spending less on content." Steve said NFLX has 23 million monthly active users on the ad tier, up from 15 million in November and 5 million last May.




Judge doesn’t say a word about pro football


Honestly, sometimes we think that if Judge were hosting the Halftime Report in December 1972, he wouldn't even mention The Immaculate Reception.

We've been eager to hear some football picks/analysis from the Halftime Report crew. Even Weiss would make Super Bowl picks. Judge supposedly is a Washington Commanders fan; we haven't heard a word about that team. Guy Adami we think is a longtime Giants fan; Terranova is an Islanders fan (that's hockey) but likes either the Jets or Giants; Cramer (who curiously has stopped appearing on Halftime) is obviously an Eagles fan; Sechan likes the Steelers. CNBC's sensational longtime voice Jim Birdsall is a Chiefs fan, obviously has had a lot to cheer in recent years. We think Karen Finerman may be a Rams fan, but we honestly don't know.

Nevertheless, Judge hasn't said a word about the NFL playoffs. And hasn't even mentioned the Peacock-only playoff situation, of which we've heard dueling arguments. (It's interesting. It's basically an outrage. But a lot of people claiming outrage also produce material behind paywalls.) (This site has zero paywalls.)

Seems like, as far as Judge is concerned, the NFL Playoffs are a tree falling in a forest.

Pete Najarian once played for a team that has a big game this weekend, but Pete exited the show with his brother in 2022, so we can't talk about what Pete might think about the playoffs, and frankly can't talk about Pete at all, so you'll have to pretend this paragraph never existed.




Stephanie: ‘No way’ there’s a March cut


Judge opened Tuesday's (1/16) Halftime Report suggesting to Joe Terranova it's "Waller giveth, Waller taketh away" (snicker).

Joe said the debate over a March rate cut will "hang over the market" and lead to "very choppy price action."

Stephanie Link said that Waller said we're "almost as good as it gets." That's a famous movie from 1997. Stephanie asserted, "I do not think the Fed is going in March. No way."

Jim Lebenthal, who had a quiet show, acknowledged we had a "heavy market" on Tuesday. Jim said "geopolitics are a mess."

Joe said that for as long as he's been in the business, the "early days of January" have been "very critical in providing insight where sentiment is."




Stephanie, Josh tangle over results from Morgan Stanley wealth management


Stephanie Link on Tuesday's (1/16) Halftime Report said a lot of banks just "met" expectations rather than beating them.

Stephanie made the case for MS; she said she "cannot believe" it was down 4%. Stephanie said MS wealth management fees were "actually up."

Josh Brown, on the show remotely (photo above is from a 2022 show in Englewood Cliffs), cut in to ask if wealth management was "up" or "flat."

"They beat," Stephanie enunciated. "They actually did beat that number."

"They beat it, but it was flat year over year, right?" Brown said.

"A beat is a beat. It doesn't matter. People were expecting it to be down," Stephanie said.

"No, I disagree. I disagree. ... Wealth management is 50% of the business now and not growing," Brown said. "A beat is not a beat."

Josh argued that Goldman Sachs wealth management was up 23% year over year, "and Morgan Stanley's was flat."

"It's a much smaller base," Stephanie shrugged about Goldman.

Judge said, "I feel like we're talkin' past each other rather than- rather than, like, like a lot of value add-on."

Joe Terranova said MS shares were down because wealth management pretax margin was not 30%, but 24%. "Ted Pick didn't give anyone any degree of confidence that it was quickly gonna return to 30%," Joe said.

Judge got Jim Lebenthal to admit C is his bank "of choice" (snicker). Jim argued, "The tone on Citigroup has changed."



Bertha actually referred to ‘Taylor Smith’ during CNBC News Update


Judge on Tuesday's (1/16) Halftime Report said Barron's decided to go "super provocative (snicker) this week" by building their own "better" Magnificent 7, which means adding BRK.B, V and UNH and subtracting AAPL, TSLA and META.

Josh Brown said "Barron's is writing for an older, more value-oriented audience, so it totally makes sense for them to pull out Tesla and put in United Health."

Josh said these "contrived" groups of stocks are more about "journalistic interest" than portfolio management.

Joe Terranova said AAPL is the 1 name from the Magnificent 7 that's below where it was last July during the Nasdaq breakout.

Judge and the panel bounced around from the banks to HD vs. LOW (always a coin flip, Zzzzzz) and AAPL vs. MSFT. Regarding the latter, Josh Brown said, "Microsoft is probably in the driver's seat for this year."

Joe brought up SNPS; Joe for some reason likes to note how long certain stocks have been in the JOET. If it's a momentum-trading vehicle, who cares if a stock has been in it for 3 years?

Judge asked Josh about Mizuho's downgrade of PYPL. Josh credited Dan Dolev of Mizuho as "among the finest" of fintech analysts and conceded the "news" of this rating is that Dolev may be "giving up" on the idea of PYPL being overly discounted. Josh didn't try to predict where PYPL is going but said it is priced for "zero growth."

Meanwhile, Josh asserted that the cybersecurity sector is a "guaranteed" bull market. Josh trumpeted the "bananas" charts of CHKP, PANW and CYBR.

Mark Fisher joined the crew remotely and immediately asked if Josh was on Tuesday's show. Judge asked Fish about the price of nat gas; Fish went on to explain the difference between futures expectations and the current spot price and we couldn't really determine his call, if any, but he did say, "The risk/reward to being short February natural gas is just not there." (Honestly, we don't know anyone aside from maybe a futures trader or two who wants to trade natural gas.)

Fish said the way to trade oil is to trade the "products" and not the oil itself. Joe touted MPC, and possibly VLO. Josh Brown touted the IEO.



Jenny says it’d be ‘stupid’ to sell the Mag 7 with capital gains


In her most interesting comment of the day on Friday's (1/12) Halftime Report, on a day in which she had many comments, Jenny Harrington said of the Mag 7, "It's probably stupid to sell them if you have huge capital gains."

Now, think about that for a moment.

We think that's a quiet endorsement of the Mag 7. Jenny appears to be saying, this subsector is not going to crash.

But at some point, if you're going to realize gains from this trade, don't you have to sell them?

Isn't January a common time to take those gains?

Is Jenny suggesting you wait until the capital gains have shrunk to break-even?

Or is she indicating these stocks are OK for 2024 and that the real goal is to beat the Tax Man, which means waiting to sell until next year, or never at all.

What would be the point of holding on to beat the Tax Man if, as Jenny claims (see below), the Mag 7 "could, kinda plateau" and it's "impossible" for her to make the case for the Mag 7 outperforming the market by the same "magnitude," and there are better stocks to buy? Wouldn't you make more money by selling the Mag 7 and buying Jenny's other picks?



Frank was the host, but Joe was asking the great questions (a/k/a Judge is off, doesn’t have to defend playoff game being on Peacock-only)


On Friday's (1/12) Halftime Report, it seemed like Jenny Harrington couldn't wait to talk about DOCU.

Jenny said she bought the stock a few months ago at $42. (It was actually late September.) Given what it did in December alone, it maybe should've been somewhere on the Call of the Year list (see below), except 1) the stock was basically flat for 2 months after Jenny bought it and 2) a lot of other stocks also had big Decembers and 3) we don't think Jenny mentioned it after making the case for it last September, until now.

But still an excellent purchase.

On Friday, Jenny reiterated all the "unbelievable" (she said it at least 2-3 times) great things about the company that prompted her to buy; it wasn't the prospect of a buyout, but "of course," private equity would be interested in a company as "unbelievable" as this one.

Joe Terranova asked Jenny "what type of premium" does she think DOCU would be acquired at. This was the best question of the day, as it suggests an end game for selling the shares. Jenny admitted she doesn't know. With the stock now at $64, Jenny stated, "Wow, it's already exceeded what our- we thought our 1-year price target would be, so dramatically," which doesn't help someone thinking about buying the shares now.

Actually, so far, Jenny's up around 50%. Back in September, Jenny said the stock wouldn't have 900% returns but "maybe there's a 100%, 150% return." Based on that metric, she's evidently counting on at least another $20.



Jim indicates that neither C nor anyone else should really be in the muni business


Joe Terranova started off Friday's Halftime Report talking about how "There's JPMorgan and then there's the rest of the banks" (Zzzzzz).

Joe owns JPM personally, and he said the JOET has been underweight financials for a year.

Guest host Frank Holland referred to Jim Lebenthal as a "Citigroup believer" (snicker).

Frank told Jim that Hugh Son says C is taking a "litany of charges." Jim shrugged that those charges are "frankly expected."

Jim then mentioned the "40% discount to tangible book value (sigh)." Jim said if C traded at tangible book value, it would see "30% share appreciation from here, maybe 40%." (So all it's got to do is trade at tangible book.)

Jim said C is a "different story" than JPM and that Jane Fraser is the first person to take a "scalpel" or even "machete" to right-size C.

In the show's 2nd-best question of the day (see DOCU/Jenny Harrington), Joe Terranova asked Jim if C buyers are buying for the "turnaround story," which is maybe a 2024 thing, or because the turnaround is "sustainable" and the bank could become like JPM.

"I do think it's sustainable," Jim said, citing the cuts being made; that's an interesting goal, Let's be like JPMorgan by cutting a bunch of businesses. Jim again cited "tangible book value."

Joe questioned why C is shutting its muni and distressed-debt businesses while JPM is in those sectors. Jim said he knows from the family business that the muni business "has been tough for decades."



Jenny names a stock that she claims will have ‘leadership’ in 2024


Once she got going, she really never stopped.

Jenny Harrington up to the 7-minute mark of Friday's (1/12) Halftime Report had been "uncharacteristically quiet," according to guest host Frank Holland, who apparently wanted to hear Jenny's speeches on several segments of the U.S. financial markets.

Frank first asked Jenny about the "noisy start to earnings season," including from BAC. Jenny explained that consumers are "bifurcated." Jenny then spoke about what earnings season means to her and said she doubts we're going to get "12%" earnings growth this year. (Which is another way of saying "It's going to be all low-P.E. value stocks from here on.")

Frank said tech is the best-performing sector this week. Jim Lebenthal, often allied with Jenny on downplaying tech, sought to throw cold water on the tech trade, stating, "It's not the Magnificent 7 as a monolith moving forward," which is at odds with Joe Terranova's insistence that the Mag 7 is still outperforming. In fact, Joe even said Friday, "We're all looking for a broadening out of the market, but you have to acknowledge it has not happened so far year to date (sic last 3 words redundant)."

Jim said the last he looked, NVDA was down, "and I didn't think that was allowed." Jim went on to predict, "Better returns are likely to come outside of technology." Hmmmmm. "Likely." Wonder how that's determined.

Jenny said it's "impossible" (sic) (snicker) for her to "make any case" that megacap tech would maintain the same "magnitude" of leadership performance.

Jenny then referred to Steve Weiss' comment to her a week ago (Jan. 5) in which Weiss said MSFT "should be at the market or better" (that's basically what he said, though not the exact quote, see below), while Jenny thinks it "could, kinda, plateau." Jenny said it's "not likely that they're going to be up 62% again this year like they were last year."

Jenny suggested APTV instead and said "It's hard for me to imagine that that doesn't have performance leadership in the coming year."

In a Fed discussion involving Steve Liesman, Joe Terranova pointed to the 2-year yield and stated, "this is the beginning stage of the disinversion for a 2- vs. a 10-year." Joe said he's "skeptical and suspicious of a March cut," the market's probability has him thinking it's "actually gonna happen."

Jim said the market has an "81%" probability on a March cut and if the Fed is not going to do a March cut, "they gotta put this out there right now." Steve Liesman said, "I don't think they have to," explaining "the Fed is really, really tight here relative to the underlying inflation rate."



Jenny actually touts K-1s


Jenny Harrington on Friday's (1/12) Halftime Report gave a speech about energy and oil and decreed, "Oil is range-bound."

What was startling was Jenny advocating K-1s; "by the way, I think that's the best way to go." Oh yes, K-1s are great fun when doing your taxes.

Jenny gushed about buying UBER at $22 in 2022. (That doesn't help anyone thinking about buying it now.) (This writer is long UBER.) She's trimmed it 3 times, which she called "responsible" (others would call it "leaving money on the table" because it's at an all-time high now).

Jenny again predicted there's only "10% upside" in UBER through 2024. Joe Terranova said he's still "absolutely" bullish on UBER and sees it "well into the $70s." Joe also made the "industrial" case for the stock, as he has previously (when he was demanding Weiss acknowledge it on national television).

In what sounded a little bit like, quite frankly, denial, given how airlines have traded in the last 6 months, Jim Lebenthal called DAL's stumble "absolutely a head fake." He mentioned "6 times earnings" (sigh), which he said "traditionally" should be 8 times.

Joe said REGN is a "classic example" of how momentum investing "actually does work."




Bryn declares ‘P.E. is a terrible metric for making trades’


As P.E. ratios on the Halftime Report begin to sound more and more like The Emperor Has No Clothes, Bryn Talkington stoked the fire on Thursday (1/11).

Guest host Frank Holland said technology stocks since 1999 trade at an average of 17.7 forward P.E. ratio, but now it's at "24 and a half" (the graphic said 25.4).

Bryn said that number is a "small lens" for evaluating the sector, but, "I've said this so many times: P.E. is a terrible metric for making trades."

Ouch.

We're waiting to hear the counterargument.

Nevertheless, most panelists on this show cite this terrible metric as the most important factor on whether they like a stock.

Moments later, after an NVDA discussion, Josh Brown stated, "We all agree on valuation. (Um, is Josh sure about that?) I think the key is to not be a slave to valuation."

Josh noted that for NFLX from March 2009 to January 2020, the "average P.E. on Netflix was 165 times." (Translation: Sometimes stocks with "high" P.E. ratios go higher; sometimes they don't.)

Josh continued, "It's not that valuation doesn't matter. It's just that, it doesn't give you any idea of what a stock could do when it's growing and innovating in the way that an Nvidia or a Netflix could."

Well, that's kind of a clumsy way to put it. He could've said that valuation matters as a gauge of the market's excitement for the business, but not as a purported indicator for where the stock is going. (Then again, Jim Lebenthal did make a great call on NKE valuation last October, so there's that.)

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman, in chic new hairstyle, said of NFLX, "I'm long, it's expensive, which I don't love, but I do love the strategic position they're in." (Um, the "expensive" valuation is exactly what she should love about it. Would Karen prefer a P.E. of 9?)

Later on Halftime, Josh Brown said NFLX is having a "breakout within a breakout."

Jim Lebenthal shrugged off Josh's advocacy about the AAPL mixed reality (or whatever it's called) headset.

Frank Holland said he had the META headset and didn't like it, "I get dizzy, it doesn't make sense, nobody else is on there." Josh said that's different than what AAPL will have; the META version was "straight video gaming."

Jim got Josh to predict that AAPL won't outperform the S&P 500 this year.



If Judge isn’t back on Friday, Frank will have to handle the playoff-game-only-on-Peacock promotion


United States economic conditions took center stage again on Thursday's (1/11) Halftime Report.

Josh Brown said the risk to the stock market is not things like commercial real estate or loans going bad, rather, it's the economy and stock market "overheating."

Josh pointed out how energy is the only green sector on Thursday after being one of the few in the red on Wednesday.

Bryn Talkington said interest rates aren't going to fall "in a linear fashion" and asserted we might have "3 or less (sic meant 'fewer')" rate cuts; "There is zero reason for the Fed to be cutting rates." (Well, we'd say there's more than zero.)

Jim Lebenthal said he wanted to "bring out that very hackneyed analogy of the dog-walker and the dog." The dog is the markets, and the dog-walker is Jerome Powell. Jim asserted, "We're headed in the direction of rate cuts."

Josh Brown said car insurance was up 2% in December and 20% year over year, the largest since 1976. That's Warren Buffett's department.




Bryn: Government ‘shoves down’ pro-EV policy that consumers don’t want


It was earlier in Thursday's (1/11) Halftime Report when Jim Lebenthal mentioned a "very hackneyed analogy," but he evidently wasn't referring to what he was saying about C, which was, "Citigroup has had a tremendous discount to tangible book value, almost 50%, for quite some time."

He sees the quarterly-loss alarm as a "buying opportunity."

Brenda Vingiello, like all DIS longs, thinks better days are ahead, including "lessened" losses from streaming (snicker).

Jim admitted, "I wish I had never heard the word 'Paramount.'" Though nothing, it seems, will ever get Jim to sell the stock. "I am gonna wait until the 4th quarter is reported," in about 3 weeks, to see if the "peak losses" call from last quarter is "accurate," Jim explained.

Asked to opine on Hertz unloading a lot of its EV fleet, Bryn Talkington said, "You can't make this up. When the government shoves down policy that the consumer does not want, and they give all these subsidies to companies, this is what happens." Bryn said there are 2 EVs that Americans want to buy, Tesla and Rivian. Guest host Frank Holland said Bryn was the one who flagged this story. (The Fast Money crew took it up too. "Talk about a 180," Tim Seymour said. Karen Finerman said HTZ was "pretty p---ed" (that's seriously the word she said) about Tesla's price cuts and said she didn't know if maybe "renters don't know how to drive the electric cars," or whether they "don't want to take a chance." Karen and Mel suggested the move will hit EV used-car prices.)

Josh Brown said UBER earlier in the day took out its all-time high. (This writer is long UBER.)

Brenda Vingiello offered REITs as a contrarian trade, the same trade offered by Brian Belski a day earlier.

Joe Terranova on Closing Bell with guest host Santoli advised "Don't fall asleep on natural gas" (snicker).

Karen Finerman on Fast Money offered her own "Acronym Trade," which was HELM (which has nothing to do with The Band drummer Levon Helm). The components are XLV (the "H" in "HELM" stands for "Health care"), XLE ("Energy"), LVMH and META.




Brian Belski: Valuation is the ‘worst thing’ for evaluating tech stocks


Wednesday's (1/10) Halftime Report was chock-full of good stuff (OK, some decent conversational threads), but by far, the strongest statement was Brian Belski's takedown of P.E. ratio analysis.

"On tech, valuation by the way is the worst thing you should look at in tech. It has no predictive power, we proved it in a- in a chart that we put in in our report," Belski said.

We're still waiting to hear any counterarguments to what Belski said.

Judge and his panel let the comment pass without response.

Whatever the valuation, Belski argued tech is "not stretched."




All it takes to get the CEO of Boeing to give an interview on TV is a hole in a plane


Previewing David Calhoun's "big deal" interview the next hour with Phil LeBeau, Judge on Wednesday's (1/10) Halftime Report asked Phil for a preview.

Phil expects Calhoun to say He's buying Paramount+, "We've got to do better."

Phil stressed how Calhoun will have to assure investors that Boeing has got a "smooth progression" of plane deliveries.

Judge said, "He has to reassure fliers too." Phil said, having covered this industry for "several decades," that after accidents and mishaps, there may be short-term "nervousness" among fliers, but it's "not something that lasts for a long time."

Borrowing a slogan from Jim Lebenthal (who wasn't on the show), Judge actually used the phrase "one step forward vs. two steps back" in regard to Boeing.

"They're gonna be in the penalty box for a while," Brian Belski said of BA, borrowing a slogan from Joe Terranova.



A lot of Kari’s accounts apparently rode PYPL all the way down from the high $200s


Josh Brown, who wasn't on Wednesday's (1/10) Halftime Report, is still touting PYPL, so viewers will probably have to keep hearing about this stock for some reason, but Judge on Wednesday opened the show asking Kari Firestone about finally selling PYPL and whether she sold because of the James Faucette price cut that Josh mocked a day earlier.

Actually, "We sold it last week," Kari said, before adding this eye-opening footnote: "We were an owner of PayPal for so many years that most of our accounts had a gain in PayPal, as hard as that is to believe."

Hoo boy. We're hardly expert chartists here, but from what we can tell, the only way a long-term holder (i.e., much farther back than last October-November) could have a gain in PYPL at this particular moment is if they bought in 2017 or prior. Which means they sat on the shares for about an entire year when they traded near $300 and melted the ice cube nearly all the way down.




And now a word from our sponsors: Najarians’ ad runs during Halftime Report


Brian Belski on Wednesday's (1/10) Halftime Report shrugged off the first week of the year as "a lot of people still on vacation" with "light volume" and asserted "the adults kinda came back on Monday the 8th."

It wasn't until the 7th minute that Judge got to Joe Terranova, who stated, "So we're 7 trading days in, and you have to begin to ask yourself the question, OK, how long do you give it for the consensus to be right. ... Last year, I waited till April. This year, I'm not waiting till April."

"You gonna give it 8 days?" Judge chuckled.

Joe said, "Do you respect the dominance of algorithms right now," and he added that the S&P equal-weight is underperforming by "75 basis points" and small caps are down 3% YTD and even though "everyone loves" energy, that's the "worst sector so far year to date," while the "Mag 5" minus AAPL and TSLA are the leaders.

Judge questioned, "What are you telling me, that 2024 is gonna be 2023 all over again?"

"That's a big risk," Joe said.

Joe said he "personally" owns MSFT but that's "not enough" in the megacap space.

Shannon Saccocia stressed that there are stocks doing well "outside of those 5 names."

"Joe's gettting nervous," declared Kari Firestone.

"I wouldn't use the word 'nervous,'" Joe said.

"I would," Judge said.

"Sorry but I did already," Kari said.

Kari said "Meta is the sort of name that makes people nervous who don't own it." Kari said NVDA and CRM and GOOGL are "not that expensive" (note Belski's point above) and that's why 'People like Joe are saying 'Whoa, maybe we better buy them.'"

Joe said NVDA is rallying but "the rest of the semiconductor industry" doesn't have the "same degree of excitement."




In this Age of AI, they still don’t know how to use spellcheck


Kari Firestone, who was kinda takin' on any analyst Judge put forward on Wednesday's (1/10) Halftime Report, shrugged that Oppenheimer (the Wall Street shop, not the Christopher Nolan movie), which made CRM a top pick with a $300 target, missed the ride last year.

Joe Terranova said the "focus on reducing head count" has driven CRM and it "clearly is targeting November of '21's high of 311."

Kari said HD was a "big recipient of, you know, COVID money" in 2020-21, but after a slump, people will have to do renovating again.

Joe said LEN is sending a message to bears. "You stay with the homebuilders," Joe stated.

Kari said Citi's downgrade of SCHW "feels like a non-call."

Kari pushed back against AXP skeptics stating "there's not a recession." Joe said AXP would experience "fundamental pressure" if there's a "firm landing" rather than a "soft landing."

Bob Pisani predicted the SEC would approve bitcoin ETFs, possibly after the close Wednesday; "all the cards are aligned." Joe said a bitcoin ETF will be a "shiny new toy for the algos."

Brian Belski's contrarian trade for 2024 is REITs. He's actually got a few positions.



Josh suddenly makes James Faucette a Halftime Report household name


On Tuesday's (1/9) fairly sleepy Halftime Report, Stephanie Link said she's "staying patient" in BA, though she concedes "it's not done going down."

Sarat Sethi trimmed UBER, which Judge said seems "fashionable" these days. Sarat said it's not as attractive as a year ago (which is basically trying to time the market). (This writer is long UBER.)

Sarat offered commodities as his contrarian trade (actually Halftime viewers should consider themselves lucky; the Fast Money gang is inventing acronym trades for 2024, including Tim Seymour's BICEP); Judge could've said that commodities may be in or out of favor but are never contrarian trades. Amy Raskin offered something contrarian, ILMN, which she said has been a "nightmare." But she said it's "just had a bearish-to-bullish reversal." Sarat said ILMN is "very similar to the Uber story a year and a half ago." Judge noted Uber didn't do a "dumb acquisition."

Amy Raskin sold "a big chunk" of NKE because "the company's just not executing."

Amy trimmed JPM and GS, citing "portfolio management."

Josh Brown opened the show defending his PFE (Zzzzzz) buy, saying there are fundamental reasons to buy or not buy a stock but technicals can suggest when to buy. He said PFE has had a "change in character" and that "most of the bad news is in." On Fast Money, Karen Finerman mentioned PFE and said she doesn't know that it's bottomed.

Judge asked Josh about the Morgan Stanley downgrade of PYPL (Zzzzzzz) and noted the "price target dump" from 118 to 66. Josh said the analyst is James Faucette, who has "been dead wrong on it the whole way down." Given that, "This feels capitulationish to me," Brown said.

Josh again defended SNAP, stating, "Once people start using Snap Plus, they can't stop (snicker)."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said there seems to be "one good news story after another" in LLY. She said she's staying long.

Lions Gate exec Michael Burns joined the Fast Money set at the Nasdaq; he was once married to Lori Loughlin (before she dabbled in college admissions).




Soon, Judge is going to have to start talking up the Peacock-only playoff game


Judge on Monday's (1/8) Halftime Report asked Cathie Wood if the ARKK is just going to track the 10-year. Cathie didn't exactly answer the question and cited "algorithms" for that kind of parallel but said she thinks long-term Treasury rates "overshot" and are "on the way down." (Translation: She wants to claim no correlation but just in case there is, yields are going down anyway.)

As Judge cited big tech gains from late 2023 and mentioned ROKU and RBLX and SQ and others, Cathie assured "we have been trimming most of them."


Bob Pisani landed Cathie for ETF Edge, which is why this segment aired before the 30-minute mark.

Cathie said she thinks "the probability is very high" that bitcoin ETFs will be approved this week.

Cathie said that so many people are expecting a sell the news on the bitcoin ETF, "We might not have a sell on the news."

Cathie asserted that bitcoin is "digital gold." (That's one way to put it. Some of us aren't sure whether it's a computer program, software or GLP drug.)

Cathie also said 15 million bitcoin are in "long-term hands," which according to Cathie means they haven't moved in "more than 155 days."

Cathie told Bob that SEC approval of a bitcoin ETF is a "green light" for wirehouses to let clients plunge in.

While Bob asked, Judge was heard on open mike asking Joe Terranova if Joe wanted to ask Cathie about TWLO. It turns out that Joe did, asking Cathie about the TWLO CEO change. Cathie said it seems to be "the outcome" of activists' push and that "the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole" of the stock.



We thought it would be the old ‘2 steps forward, 1 step ...’ or whichever direction the slogan goes


Judge opened Monday's (1/8) Halftime Report telling Jim Lebenthal "the top story is all about you" because Jim has sold BA and ALK.

Jim said, "Fundamentally, there's a problem with Boeing," predicting an "earnings impact" from the blowout-related grounding.

Jim said he wanted to add a "big disclaimer," that he's "comfortable" flying in any certified airplanes.

Judge curiously asked Jim about whether making a stock trade after an incident such as this could be an "emotional decision" (snicker) that's later regretted. Jim said he agrees there's an "emotional aspect" but that he doesn't want to deal with a potential airline safety risk that's "backed up by the fundamentals."

Karen Finerman on Fast Money was anything but emotional on BA, stating, "I think it gets a little worse before it gets better."




Santoli seems underwhelmed by the ‘baseball card’ graphic the show’s producers made for him (admittedly, the Morse code dots are a little odd)


Judge asked Anastasia Amoroso on Monday's (1/8) Halftime Report if this week will be the defining one of how the year goes. (Because frankly, last week kinda stunk.)

Anastasia said it's a "really important week" and that last week may have set up a good week with yields creeping up, also, we entered the year in a "very overbought condition" but have now "corrected some of that."

Steve Weiss said we're "OK for now."

Weiss said, "Unquestionably, the Fed's gonna go 3 times this year in my view," which he said will be "enough" for the bulls.

Joe Terranova said that despite last week's stumble, it was "all technical in its nature" and doesn't change the narratives entering the year.



Lessee ... someone claimed last week that the Mag 7 ‘easy button’ worked last year, but this year, you have to do your ‘homework’


Steve Weiss on Monday's (1/8) Halftime Report said he doesn't think AAPL has had enough multiple compression and that other Megacap Tech have better fundamentals. Weiss said China is a "big issue" for AAPL.

Joe Terranova said he "kinda" agrees with Weiss and that Monday isn't "some form of a referendum" on AAPL and that we don't have to "keep trying to pretend and play this game that the Mag 7 are not gonna matter in 2024."

We agree with that, and we're wondering if Joe is citing the same names that come to mind around here as pretending to claim the Mag 7 will fall out of favor quicker than the Jacksonville Jaguars' playoff chances.

Jim Lebenthal said the AAPL buybacks are a factor but that he's not all that jazzed about the stock either.



More on how P.E. ratios (don’t actually) predict a stock’s direction


Judge on Monday's (1/8) Halftime Report sounded surprised that Steve Weiss is back in HUM.

"It's called trading," Weiss explained, before mentioning Steve Cohen and getting jeered by Judge for name-dropping.

"Sometimes you've gotta get out of a stock, OK, and just think clearly about it, and then you go back in," Weiss revealed, predicting Jim Lebenthal will get back in BA.

"This is actually a great point," Jim said. Weiss called HUM "a counterbalance to my tech exposure."

Meanwhile, Joe Terranova said the market has a "high level of expectations" for LULU for years, and "the company delivers." Weiss lamented selling LULU a while back and said it's got a "fortress brand." He said it could be like CMG in holding a high valuation "forever."

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said LULU is "getting a way-premium-to-market multiple." Karen praised ANF's CEO and said the multiple isn't crazy but that the stock has had a big run.

Anastasia Amoroso had the obligation on Monday to come up with a contrarian trade; Anastasia offered commercial real estate. Anastasia said there's "a big pool of capital" eager to make loans at "about 9%." She said "I would be looking to buy public REITs" and real estate debt.



Our contrarian trade is that Matthew McConaughey never finds out who’s the sheriff of the AI Wild West


Pressing on with his dubious new feature, Judge on Friday's (1/5) Halftime Report asked panelists for another batch of "contrarian trades."

Jenny Harrington offered commercial real estate, specifically offices. "Lean in, but not broadly," Jenny advised. (Translation: The only part of this trade that she's doing isn't really contrarian.) "Don't go out and buy indexes."

Jenny touted SLG and BXP and the quality of their portfolios. For others, "You don't wanna own the crummy little buildings," Jenny explained.

After Jenny stopped, Jason Snipe offered biotech, specifically IBB (he actually owns it), noting price controls are "always on the docket" in an election year but "free cash flow is starting to grow again."

Judge said his own contrarian trade for Steve Weiss is that "you're gonna smile more in 2024." Jenny Harrington cracked, "I'm shorting that," which was actually her best line in months.

Weiss said his contrarian trade is energy, which he predicted will "disappoint."



Don’t people have all kinds of losses from ’22 that can absorb all these ’23 gains that they held until ’24?


Given that many people have been forecasting a decent 2024 in the stock market, the first week of trading has been puzzling at best, disheartening at worst.

Jim Lebenthal on Friday's (1/5) Halftime shrugged "This is the pause that refreshes" and said it's nothing more than "noise."

Jenny Harrington said "I feel good about this year," but typically when she sells something, she buys something else, but so far this year she's found nothing to "pair."

Judge asked Jenny about some sales and said it "feels to me like a little bit of nervousness." Jenny insisted it's "not a macro call" but "literally like Portfolio Management 101." (Actually it seems a little like "literally guessing at short-term market tops.")

Jason Snipe said, "It is time for a little bit of digestion going forward."

Jason trimmed NOW, stating, "Software enterprise- software spend is slowing."

Steve Weiss offered, "The headlines are still accurate," meaning the Fed will cut, but "they're not cutting 6 times." Inflation is still "stubbornly high," Weiss asserted, and he doesn't even think recession (snicker) is "out of the question yet."

Judge said Bank of America reports that we've had the "highest cash inflow ever for a first week of the year." Jim said it's "FOMO."



Still wondering how today’s P.E. ratio can predict ‘muted’ returns over a ‘10-year time horizon’


On Friday's (1/5) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss talked up his favorite "permanent compounder," MSFT, though Jenny Harrington didn't necessarily agree, wondering about the "realistic return potential" for 2024 and 2025.

Weiss said he expects MSFT to do "at least as well as the market."

After the A Block, Judge was talking about PANW again. (Zzzzzzzzz.) Judge asked Jenny why she wasn't trimming PANW. Jenny pointed out how much it's up (550%) in the 6 years she has owned it, then claimed, as they always do, "There is no end in sight, ever, to cyberthreats." (There's also no end in sight, ever, to taking airplane flights and growing corn; does that mean Boeing and John Deere are permanent compounders?)

Jim Lebenthal again mentioned the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. (And after it's refilled ... do we jump for joy?)

Judge said Wolfe is expecting more dividend cuts in 2024. "I think it's a silly comment to make," Jenny said, saying Goldman "basically said the same thing" at the "worst of the pandemic," only to decide 11 months later, "dividends are wonderful." (Well, um, probably a lot of shops had troubling outlooks for the financial markets at the beginning of the pandemic.)

Jim apparently told producers he "violently" disagrees with this Wolfe call.

On Fast Money, guest Alexander Edwards made maybe the most interesting point of the week, that EVs are associated with Democrats and that such association may be an "imaginary barrier" for some people who may otherwise be interested in buying them. Steve Grasso said there's "no way" the cybertruck is a "liberal" vehicle.



Josh not impressed with the reseach Judge is citing at the top of the show


Jim Lebenthal on Thursday's (1/4) Halftime Report pronounced the selloff this week "hardly unexpected."

Regarding the Magnificent 7, Judge actually told Josh Brown, "The hardest thing with these stocks is knowing when to get out and when to get in." (Can't that basically be said about every stock?)

Judge said Roth MKM is recommending profit-taking in AMZN and says "many names are now stretched."

Josh shrugged, explaining that people should know whether they're an "investor" or a "trader" and MKM is "tactically" trying to make short-term calls and what if they're wrong and you miss out.

In any case, "I don't care," Brown said.

Shannon Saccocia said the Magnificent 7 have been vulnerable to not only multiple compression but "kind of a switch in momentum." Shannon and Kari stressed that there's still money coming in off the sidelines.

Jim said that "relative" to the "easy button" people used to invest in the Magnificent 7 last year, this year will require "all of us doing the homework that we love to do." (Hmmmm ... "homework" ... is that what people are doing with their "contrarian calls"?)

Jim said he "certainly" watched other Halftime shows this week; "I watch every time I'm not on."



Judge’s ‘contrarian trade’ already seems like a massive bust (given that panelists aren’t even making these trades)


On Thursday's (1/4) Halftime Report, Josh Brown said his "contrarian trade" was the KWEB, just like Bryn Talkington (who bluntly stated she's not even in the trade).

"This is probably the biggest contrarian swing that you can take," Josh said.

Shannon Saccocia's contrarian trade was commodities. Kari Firestone's contrarian trade was KMX; she is actually long that name. Jim Lebenthal said utilities. He cited PCG as his long in that space. According to CNBC's disclosures on Thursday, Josh is not long KWEB (just like Bryn isn't), and Shannon's disclosures were unavailable.

In a laborious conversation about semiconductors and ON and NXPI and Mobileye that included Kristina Partsinevelos, Jim and Kristina disagreed over NXPI's guidance. Kristina insisted it "guided Q1 below." Jim insisted it was "pretty good on the guidance." Moments later, Judge said NXPI's guidance was "slightly below analysts' expectations." Jim apologized to Kristina and said he "didn't mean to like call her out on that" and said his own "interpretation" is that NXPI is underappreciated.

Kari conceded Apple Pay is an "enormous competitor" to PYPL, a stock we've long grown sick of hearing about. Josh Brown, who recently bought PYPL and stressed that it's not a "huge stake," said he thinks "a lot of pessimism has already been priced in." Josh mentioned the "17 multiple" (so now multiples are a catalyst again) and claimed "you're not really taking a huge risk on multiple to bet that something might go right."

Josh said PYPL's CEO might have ideas about a "strategic transaction."

Kari said "the consumer product" is growing for AXP. Judge even suggested AXP is an "AI play (snicker), in some respects." Kari said, "Yeah, sure." Kari said, "I bet most people who come on this show use their American Express card and, and think highly of it."

Kari said LLY's direct-to-consumer is a "game-changer." Judge wondered why Kari isn't "buying it today." Kari said, "Well, this just happened!" Jim said he's "not taking anything away from Eli Lilly," but the stock is "priced for perfection."

Joe Terranova, meanwhile, appeared on Closing Bell with Judge and said the market is "going through a technical correction" and there's a "risk" that this correction "evolves into something a little bit larger," apparently because March Fed cuts may not happen. He said "it's very clear that the market was technically overbought."

Jeff deGraaf on Closing Bell suggested that in this first week we've had "some tax-loss selling." Why would anyone wait until January to take a loss?



Suddenly, nearly everyone on Halftime Report is knocking P.E. ratio analysis


It seems like this page has started a trend.

After pointing out in our year-end review (see below) how several Halftime Report panelists have recently asserted that P.E. ratio isn't a determinant of stock direction, several panelists have echoed that thought this week.

On Wednesday (1/3), Judge asked Bryn Talkington, "How much do megacap multiples need to correct?"

"Multiples are a terrible metric for timing," Bryn started to say.

"Everybody keeps saying that," Judge cut in. "I hear you on that. I heard that- I heard that 2 or 3 times yesterday as well." But Judge said the "bottom line" is that if the multiples are viewed as "extended," they have to correct before people will jump in.

Bryn questioned whether AAPL deserves a "kinda high" 30 multiple and said NVDA "could be one of the cheapest names."

Or basically, what Bryn's really saying is that P.E. ratio is an effect and not a cause and that stocks with high ones may surge and other stocks with high ones may stumble, and stocks with low ones may surge and other stocks with low ones may stumble.

Mike Santoli said the Magnificent 7 names aren't at peak valuations like pre-pandemic.



Judge has apparently dropped the Stock Summit; presumably panelists didn’t want it


Early into Wednesday's (1/3) Halftime Report, Bryn Talkington sounded a cautionary note, stating, "There is some history" to how the first week of stock market trading signals the first month, which signals the whole year, so you have to "read into what happens this week."

Fair point. Then again, it's only been 2 days.

What are we gonna get, a VIX of 60 on Friday?

Judge again brought up Jim Cramer's quote from Tuesday, "Trim across the board." But Joe Terranova said he doesn't think "anything has changed" from the Q4 narrative.

"I think the GDP is running hotter than expected," Stephanie Link said.

Judge said Bespoke found that Tuesday was the 5th time in Nasdaq's history that it started the year down 1.5% or more.

Joe said he thinks at some point in the first half of the year, we'll be talking about "some form of a growth scare."

Curiously, with no sign at all of a 2024 "Stock Summit" like they did last year, Judge introduced a "contrarian trade" feature after the A block, starting with Bryn, who admitted "we will not be making this trade by the way" (that's quite an endorsement). Bryn's trade was KWEB.

Stephanie Link's "contrarian" call is either housing or HD or both. She said it's "definitely on my radar."

Then Judge asked Joe for an "actionable" contrarian trade he'd actually "make." Joe suggested "corporate debt" (Zzzzzz), such as LQD or HYG. Joe said he's looking to personally buy Alphabet. That's a real contrarian. (This writer is long GOOGL.)



Sounds like D.A. Davidson is making the real contrarian call


Borrowing headline-making comments from others rather than generating them from his own show, Judge on Wednesday's (1/3) Halftime Report said D.A. Davidson is suggesting AI might be "just another cycle."

Joe Terranova said "I completely disagree with the premise" because of the spending in AI. Joe said there's no way in 2 days that the market has "worked off" the excesses of the chase for megacaps and semis. "They're stlil crowded trades," Joe explained. (But that didn't quite address whether AI might be "just another cycle.")

Joe bought IBKR, suggesting optimism for the capital market environment. Bryn Talkington said you can also try the CME.

Stephanie Link bought XOM and BMY. "I'm a very big believer in mean reversion," Link said.

Bryn said RBLX has broken out above 40 and if it can stay above 40, it can get to 50, but she suggested it needs profitability before it can get over 50.

Joe said there's "a lot of challenges ahead" for airlines this year.

Joe said LLY can "dominate the market" in GLP drugs.

Stephanie said SCHW is her "top idea in financials."




First argument of the year: Joe demands Weiss acknowledge UBER is an ‘industrial’


Who woulda thunk that the most polarizing subject on Tuesday's (1/2) Halftime Report would be ... S&P's sector classifications.

After the A Block, Josh Brown explained how "TAM opportunity" justifies the prospects of UBER trading "significantly higher in the next year or two." (This writer is long UBER.)

Steve Weiss said he trimmed UBER because he doesn't think it's "compellingly cheap." Brown asked about buyback potential. Weiss said buybacks have "become the base case for analysts now" and that it's "something Dara's whispered to 'em."

But Weiss doesn't believe in the "freight" case for UBER and predicts "they'll probably exit freight."

Joe Terranova said he too trimmed UBER but disagreed with Weiss, calling UBER "almost essential to the consumer." Joe also argued (and this is what started everything), "This is an industrial name," and where else will industrial investors go for this kind of revenue growth.

Weiss cut in, "I don't look at things like that." Joe then demanded Weiss "acknowledge" that a "tremendous amount of capital" is viewing the stock that way. Weiss said "without a doubt," but that view is "misplaced," he thinks "it's really a technology company."

Josh offered, "I think it's consumer discretionary," though "it is a transport, that's why it's in industrials."



Liz, Joe (sorta) bash P.E. ratio timing on first trading day of new year


That didn't take long.

Just after this page noted (see below) in its year-end review how many voices on the Halftime Report suggested P.E. ratio doesn't tell you anything about where a stock is going, Liz Young and Joe Terranova piled on Tuesday (1/2).

Liz stated, "P.E.'s are a terrible timing mechanism," but then somehow claimed they're good for a "10-year time horizon" and can suggest a "muted" return over 5-10 years if the P.E. seems elevated now. (Um, note to Liz, we can't fathom how someone can look at a P.E. today and determine if a stock is going to be overvalued in 5 years.)

Joe said, "Forget the valuation argument, and I agree with Liz, I don't think valuation is a good indication of where something might or might not be going."

Perfect. Well said.

Liz actually said that stock-picking will be "the technique of choice (snicker) in 2024."

Josh Brown pointed out that basically since the pandemic, the market has decided that AAPL's average P.E. should "double" from previous levels. Brown chalked that up to "consistency of profits."

Later on Fast Money, Dan Nathan again predicted, "I think at some point Microsoft overtakes Apple this year in market cap and never looks back." According to what we see on Yahoo! Finance, AAPL leads, 2.88 vs. 2.75.



Weiss agrees with Jim on something important — both are predicting 8% up in 2024


Judge opened the new year of the Halftime Report on Tuesday (1/2) stating that Jim Cramer is advising, "Trim across the board."

Steve Weiss said he trimmed META and MSFT; he said his view on the stocks hasn't changed but the positions had gotten "almost irresponsibly large." (Which helps no one. Stocks don't go up or down based on what else is in Weiss' portfolio.)

Weiss said he actually trimmed Friday and that other people apparently had the same idea, selling before others unloaded in the new year.

Joe Terranova pointed to the "Apple note" in the morning from 6:00 to 6:35. Judge cut in and said that was a Barclays downgrade of AAPL to underweight, suggesting the stock needs a "breather."

Joe said, bluntly, that the Magnificent 7 is a "crowded trade" and said people are changing their approach to owning those names by "degree."

Weiss predicted 2024 is a "muted year" of 8-12% returns with "stubborn" inflation, unless there's a recession. (That 8% set off alarm bells here, as another panelist who wasn't on the show Tuesday recently made the same forecast.)

Joe said semiconductor stocks "are 20-30% above their 200-day moving average," when historically, the "sweet spot" has been "11-15%."

Judge said Oppenheimer has a 5,400 S&P target and that Oppenheimer calls it "probable and even conservative." Liz Young said "Hmmmph," and "That's aggressive, to me" (as if she was ever going to agree with that), before chuckling.



Weiss says you can get bitcoin anywhere


In a bit of a surprise, Judge devoted a segment of Tuesday's (1/2) Halftime Report (with CNBC's Kate Rooney) to cryptocurrency, which Judge is calling an "asset class."

Steve Weiss, who made a great call in bitcoin last fall (see our year-end wrap below), said he trimmed bitcoin on Friday (along with, it sounds like, just about everything else he owns, hopefully not his cars or furniture), "a day or two early."

Weiss affirmed, "I don't believe in bitcoin, I still see no use case, no end market for it." Weiss suggested "the news is priced in" regarding ETFs.

Weiss explained "You don't need an ETF" for bitcoin; "It's very easy to buy," on Fidelity, Robinhood, "everywhere."

Josh Brown said the beginning of bitcoin futures in 2017 was the short-term top.

Meanwhile, Weiss affirmed he sold HUM last Friday but said he hasn't sold any UNH. Weiss noted it's a "highly charged political environment" and that health care "typically" comes up during presidential campaigns, but he thinks "some of that underperformance frankly was pulled forward."

Weiss said he's got "a lot of cash right now" but he bought TSM, TDG and TXT.

Joe Terranova said BKNG and EXPE are "technically overextended," but fundamentals are still in place.

Weiss said Jane Fraser should be "commended" for taking a "very, very critical eye" to the C business and not just, apparently, chopping everything in sight.




Halftime Report/Fast Money Year in Review — who had the Call of the Year?


It's (mostly) one of our favorite times of the year: The time when this page gets to pronounce the Call of the Year on CNBC's Halftime Report (or possibly Fast Money, but longtime readers know there are only so many hours in the day) (We can't do Sully's 7 p.m. Eastern show either).

The only reason it's not always our favorite time of the year is because we have to sift through literally mountains of internet dreck to verify who said what/when. (That, and the fact the Steelers are always looking for help around this weekend to get into the playoffs that they can't get into on their own.)

Almost anything was fair game. We freely admit we are sick of hearing about PANW, PYPL, MSFT, PARA, DE, DIS and even UBER (this writer is long UBER), so we kinda shunned any calls related to those names, as there are far too many to deal with.

We took note of how panelists pronounced "either" and "data." (We could do "route" next year too.)

In 2023, at least 3 people questioned or even denounced the ever-popular valuation as a determinant of stock direction. Tom Lee on Dec. 20's Closing Bell told Judge, "As you know, valuation isn't really why anyone should ever sell a stock nor why they should buy a stock. It really should be whether earnings momentum is accelerating." Brian Belski on Sept. 6 stated, "Valuation is the worst predictor of future performance." And Joe Terranova asked Steve Weiss on Nov. 1, "We talk about valuation all the time on this show, right. Is valuation really the catalyst for where future returns are gonna be and where you wanna be." Weiss didn't really argue but insisted it's not about "momentum" either but about "fundamentals" also.

(Note: Joe's question for Weiss was going to be in the Call of the Year list, but we decided we couldn't rank it that high.)

Before we get into the Worst and Best of 2023, some of the Memorable Moments ...

Ray Romano complains about having to wake up early at celeb golf outings, July 13: Judge's trip to Tahoe really included some hard news reporting. Ray said he "woke up at 5 to 5 this morning." Judge said, "Join the club."

Jenny Harrington says panelists are ‘not allowed’ to discuss performance on the show, May 18: Jenny said, "I know we're not allowed to talk about performance on the show." That took Judge by surprise, who seemed to disagree. "No, I'm not allowed to talk about that. Like the SEC comes down on you or whatever," Jenny claimed. (Yeah, sure.) (Everyone's getting calls from the SEC.)

Josh Brown detects a "breadth thrust," Nov. 14: We're still not sure how it's any different than bread crust, but Josh assured, "Very rarely do these things melt away and we go back to a downtrend."

Jenny Harrington says Big Tech is ‘like the lazy trade,’ March 29: That's an interesting way to describe it. An argument for "lazy" investing ...

Steve Weiss says "bull----" on live television, Feb. 3: "90% of all AI applications fail, or they're bulls---," Weiss said. No indication the FCC ever levied a fine.



Seema Mody gets street exclusive with Tim Cook, better than any of Judge's "scoops" in 2023: Tim said he and others had an "incredible discussion" at the White House meeting with Narendra Modi and a "great state visit."

Elon Musk chortles at Eamon Javers' question about the meaning of "double-edged sword": In other CNBC street interviews, this one was a little more candid.

The JOET finishes the year up 16.34%, including once-a-year dividend: Don't take it from this page, as our math is probably wrong, but that's what we came up with. (Yahoo! Finance says it was 16.63%.)

Weiss suggests Judge prepare a "résumé" for a bank examiner position, May 3: Weiss said anyone who thinks they're a better "bank examiner" than the Fed should apply for the job, including Judge. Judge scoffed, "The regulator of the banks- The same regulator out in Silicon Valley, the head of the San Francisco Fed was so on the case that SVB blew up in our face." Weiss suggested Judge prepare a "résumé" for that opening. (Notify WME if that happens.)

Joe dubs LULU a "footwear company," Sept. 20: "I think, yes they're a footwear company. Lululemon is also a footwear company," Joe told Judge.

Weiss questions why DIS ever took up streaming, Sept. 13: "Frankly, I don't know why Disney went into the streaming business. I know what they thought. I don't know why they're staying in it when they're such a strong content provider. Maybe it makes sense for 'em to rethink that. I don't believe they will, but I'd suggest that," he said.

Liz Young gets the Sunday Ticket: On July 26, Liz revealed, "I'm like the only woman in Manhattan that has the NFL Sunday Ticket and the MLB package."

Steve Weiss labels the candidates for the White House in 2024, Aug. 2: "Either you keep a socialist in the White House who's bad for business, or you put somebody in there who's incompetent and unfit to serve ... I don't like either one of 'em."


2023: The Busts of the Year


Here we go, in descending order, stopping at a number that seems relevant for both the good and the bad ...

12. Joe buffaloed out of the QQQ by Fedspeak, Oct. 20


It closed that day at $354. Joe explained that he was in QQQ "around 368, but here's where I ran into a problem ... I tried to defend that position" ... and now there's a "new dynamic from the Federal Reserve which seems as though they don't want to quit." They did.

11. Brad Gerstner predicts SVB will be a ‘big part’ of 2024 politics


Actually, we doubt it's hardly come up in Iowa or New Hampshire yet.

10. Bryn Talkington says 212 will be ‘high of the year’ for TSLA, April 20


It had already reached $214 on Feb. 15. In any case, it crept into the high 200s in the summer.

9. Jeremy Siegel ‘absolutely’ thinks the Fed will cut in 2023, April 12


We think, in general, he was mostly right. He was too early here, and too much of a worrywart/complainer from 2021-2023 about interest rates in either direction.

8. Liz Young says she agrees with Jeffrey Gundlach that the recession is a few months away, ‘maybe sooner,’ March 28


She said she'd "rather just get it over with in April ... and go on with our lives later in the year."

7. Joe sells TWLO at low for the year, May 10


He announced on the show he sold TWLO on the open that day, it opened 45.88, which was basically the low for the year; in fact, if you had bought Joe's shares on 5/10, you would've had a 50% gain by the end of that month.

6. Jenny makes lengthy case for ‘dirt cheap’ AAP, Dec. 30, 2022


This would not have made the list if Jenny had just thrown in the towel. The stock crashed into the 70s on May 31; Jenny argued, "Well, I think the shares are oversold." (Turns out, they weren't.)

5. Weiss hangs on to DKS for disastrous earnings selloff, Aug. 22


Judge that day stated, "Steve Weiss missed." Weiss dialed in and said, "I got a little piggish. ... And I was wrong. ... Really no excuse for owning it given where my price target was." (But all wasn't lost for Weiss on this trade, see below.)

4. Rich Saperstein says ‘Stocks have probably seen their high for the year,’ Nov. 1


The S&P 500 was 4,237 that day. (He also on Dec. 29, 2022, predicted "lower stock prices in '23.")

3. Jim and Kari buy FRC, circa March 14


Neither one said to put the rent money here. But still. "I'm not trying to be a hero here at all," Jim explained, insisting FRC is a "good bank" and "half of the assets on its balance sheet are mortgages" and it's now "meaningfully undervalued." Kari listed several reasons for buying, including knowing people who work there. (It wasn't just them: This writer did briefly own shares of FRC that month and thankfully didn't mention it on TV.)

2. Weiss, Joe endorse MRNA in 1st half of 2023


It's hard to find a more ghastly stock this year, at least among stocks that people actually used to think were good. On Feb. 6, at 170, Joe called MRNA a "very low risk" trade. Weiss picked it for his Stock Summit and defended it for months before throwing in the towel.


1. Bust of the Year: David Tepper trades the farm for the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, wins 2 games, fires another coach midseason


Evidently, evaluating quarterbacking is tougher than evaluating balance sheets.




Our countdown of the 2023 Call of the Year ...


Here we go, in descending order ...

12. Steve Weiss buys more DKS a week after rough selloff, Aug. 30


Just days after admitting he stayed too long in DKS near 150, he scooped it up on the rebound with a "pretty decent-sized position" on a day it traded $114, "I just thought it was oversold." (Yes, it did dip to 101 in late October, but look at it now.)

11. Jim Lebenthal buys NKE, Oct. 3, based on multiple


There are few things this page likes to jab more than someone on the Halftime Report or Fast Money citing "valuation." But this time Jim stuck it to us and any other doubters with a sensational purchase of NKE on a day it closed at 95. "Historically getting it at 24 times forward earnings, which is roughly where it is right now, has been a win for me," Jim said. Jim also stuck by his Factset numbers as Judge quibbled with what the actual forward multiple was.

10. Josh Brown touts Big Head Todd and the Monsters, May 16


He was saying that when the masses get involved in a stock, you don't have to get out. "I didn't throw out Big Head Todd and the Monsters just because all of a sudden, they had a Top 10 hit song in the 1990s," Brown revealed. We'd heard of Big Head Todd (and maybe even have a disc somewhere) but really didn't know their material or ever listen. That changed after Brown's comments; it's a YouTube staple at CNBCfix HQ.

9. Jim Lebenthal predicts ‘face-ripping 4th-quarter rally,’ Sept. 1


This was a tremendous call and even a candidate for year's best. The only problem: September and October were horrible, and the S&P was 4,515 on the day Jim made this call, so much of the face-ripping rally was recovering losses. But still a great forecast.

8. Jason Snipe on Feb. 17 calls NVDA a ‘core holding,’ says it’s in a great place for the ‘gold rush in AI’


Most panelists, for reasons we don't quite get, stayed away from NVDA and made it a point to question the valuation whenever asked about it. Fairly quietly, Jason touted this stock more than anyone except Josh Brown, from the start of the year. Had Jason pounded the table a little more loudly, he'd be surging up this list.

7. Steve Weiss makes bitcoin his Final Trade, Oct. 18, re-recommends several times


It was $28,000 then, $41,700 now. Now, here's the deal ... this page doesn't really do bitcoin. We kinda wished nobody traded it. But there's heavy interest, and Weiss nailed it, and perhaps most impressively, he is not someone who touts this stuff once a week; it's just the opposite.

6. Steve Weiss announces exit from JUST fund advisory board, Oct. 13


Nearly the choice for Call of the Year, then we realized, we can't give it to Weiss 3 years in a row. (That's (mostly) a joke.) He spoke of taking a stand for something besides dollars, explaining that the JUST fund was created by Paul Tudor Jones "to drive equality in the workplace and, and, adjust the capitalist environment." Weiss said he "stepped off" the investment advisory board of JUST on the previous Friday "because of what's happened in the Middle East. This is a point you have to take a stand. ... They've been completely silent. I exchanged emails with, with Martin Whittaker, one of the founders with Paul Tudor Jones, today, and he said, his exact words were, 'Uh, I don't think that we could drive the dialogue by saying anything.' Are you out of your mind? Are you kidding me? Now's the time where you say something. ... This is a time to take a stand. And, he is not taking a stand, and their mission has become blurred and sidetracked. So, I resigned from the advisory board today, and I sold the shares. Period." (Note: This page is not taking a stand on Weiss' position or that of the fund or that of this geopolitical situation; it is crediting Weiss for stressing other principles besides profit.)

5. Matt Boss says RCL ‘could be a double,’ April 28


Normally Matt Boss (who probably appeared on the show just once last year) would not be in our mix, but he was so astoundingly accurate in April, he ended up a Call of the Year contender. Boss said there's a consumer trend back to "experiential" and that he's actually looking for nearly 50% upside in RCL and it "could be a double." Shares were about $65 then. Check them out now.

4. Stephanie Link makes AVGO a Stock Summit pick, defends it throughout 2023


Perhaps the year's most consistent recommendation, a good stock until late May, then a superb stock, then in November, a really superb stock.

3. Brad Gerstner gushes about the META quarter, Feb. 2


A lot of panelists mentioned owning META during 2023 or even late 2022. Gerstner isn't a panelist, but he's the guy who did write the open letter to management in 2022, and most importantly, his cheerleading of the "incredible" report and the "efficiency" and "engagement" on Feb. 2 when many wondered if it's time to cash in more than came to fruition throughout the rest of the year for the 2nd-biggest Big Tech gainer.

2. Tom Lee, Jan. 9, says opening days imply 23+% gain for 2023


This came darn close. On Overtime that day, Lee said FANG may be the "easiest buy" to play a tech recovery and could be up "50%" in 2023.




1. The Halftime Report/Fast Money 2023 Call of the Year: Josh Brown crowns NVDA the ‘grand marshal’ of the ‘full-blown AI bubble’


It was on May 25 that NVDA emerged as King of the 2023 stock market. Josh mentioned "grand marshal" that day and probably in previous appearances. In extremely gracious remarks, Jim Lebenthal congratulated Brown: "Josh, I don't even have words to congratulate you, this has been your name for years, you've blown it out of the water, this is amazing beyond words." Even had NVDA relinquished some or all of its spring gains later in the year, it would've been a strong contender, but it didn't. For touting this stock for many years, it's the easy Call of the Year for 2023.

In closing, let's reaffirm why we're here — because whatever the size, the audience that watches the Halftime Report and somehow finds its way to this page once a day/week/month/year is the best in the world. We're here because you are — following Wall Street, reviewing television, trying to inform (and occasionally entertain), fighting for every click we might get. As always, we want all panelists and viewers to succeed and give us a long list of great calls for next year's list. To Judge and Melissa and those on the shows, we say, Keep. Doing. What. You're. Doing.

Happy 2024, and Happy Trading!




Delivering Alpha actually surveyed people about next year’s best Magnificent 7 stock


Well, that was curious.

Friday's (12/29) show could've been called the Half-hearted Report given that usually, the last trading-day show of the year is chock-full of yearly recaps and next-year predictions, and yet the 2023 year-ender was about as fascinating as the movie "Ferrari" (that's a free entertainment tip) (see below).

Judge again took the day off and guest host Frank Holland, despite a yeoman effort, got little more than the type of market outlook you'd get in mid-August, unless you count Jenny Harrington's repeated pronouncements about how basically (not the actual quote) tech is toast and everyone's gonna buy low P.E. stocks for the next 10 years.

Jason Snipe said people waiting to sell for tax reasons is "playing out in the market," but there are a lot of "bullish tailwinds."

Grandpa Rob Sechan stated, "Equity markets certainly appear overbought right here."

Josh Brown said the markets should want longer-term bond rates to climb and uninvert the curve, which he called "101 stuff." Josh mocked the notion of someone trying to maneuver their portfolio to avoid a "1% pullback" in January.

Jenny said that next week, there aren't any stocks she wants to buy, but "There's 3 stocks I want to sell."

Frank for some reason turned to Jenny to opine on the CNBC Delivering Alpha survey that found MSFT the top pick of the Magnificent 7 for next year. Jenny said "you know I disagree," but she doesn't know which stock she would pick from the list instead. (Here's where Weiss would say, if he were on the program, "It deserves a higher multiple because it's got recurring revenue.")

Josh said he understands Nomura's downgrade of UBER. He said the 200-day has been "perfect support." Jenny also owns UBER and suggested it "maybe" has just 8-10% upside. (This writer is long UBER.)

Josh again outlined the cases for/against PYPL. Josh expressed confidence in the CEO and said if he were running PYPL, he'd change the name to "Venmo."

Jenny said energy is in a "much more normalized, less-distorted trajectory." Rob said that "selectively," energy is a great spot to find a "laggard" that will do well in 2024.

Josh said CRWD was No. 3 in the Nasdaq 100 in 2023 performance, behind only NVDA and META. Josh said cybersecurity is "the guaranteed secular bull market of the next 10 years." (Actually people have basically been saying that for a couple decades; the stocks don't always go up.) Jason Snipe said, "Palo Alto's our pick."

Rob Sechan's Final Trade was RACE; he mentioned "there's a movie coming out soon" (it's already out).



‘Recession’ kind of is ... always a possibility at some point in the future


On Thursday's (12/28) Halftime Report, Bob Pisani tackled what could go wrong for stocks in 2024, and of course, our ears were perked up.

Until we realized, there's really no there there.

Bob said there could be 1) Fewer rate cuts than expected; 2) Recession; 3) Earnings slowdown.

All of that collectively sounds like "The economy may get too good or too slow." (Hard to cover much more ground than that.)

Bob said only 50% of reporting companies are beating on revenues, though 94% are beating on earnings. (But it didn't seem like the sample reporting size was very large yet.)



The VIX is an effect, not a cause


Guest host Frank Holland on Thursday's (12/28) Halftime Report said the Nasdaq is having its "best year since 1999."

Josh Brown said he doesn't call this a "Santa Claus rally," rather he calls it a "career-security rally."

Brown said with the Nasdaq and S&P up as much as they are, money managers can't be "sitting with the amount of cash that a lot of people are sitting on." (Actually they can, but whatever.)

Undoubtedly echoing the sentiments of many, Kevin Simpson said, "I wish we had another quarter in 2023."

Bryn Talkington said Ned Davis calculated that when the S&P reaches a new high, the "median return" a year later is "a little over 13%."

Jim Lebenthal, who wasn't at Post 9 and who looked and sounded like he was in some 1970s TV news video being interviewed by Harry Reasoner, is "starting to nibble" in the IJR, based on his research suggesting a "16% return in small caps next year," which is twice his 8% prediction for the S&P 500.

Jim also drew a distinction between the S&P 600 and the Russell 2000.

Josh was asleep at the switch when Frank asked him if he's a "believer" in the "broadening out" of the rally; Frank did add a lengthy stat about Bespoke saying this is the Russell's "3rd-biggest 2-month gain in history," up 24%, while phrasing the question.

"What's the question," Brown finally said, launching into a bit of a "Hollywood Squares" routine.

Frank asked again about the broadening of the rally. Josh said stocks that have been rallying can "continue to work."

Josh again touted JPM making more money in 2023 than any bank in American history.

Brown said the VIX has "remained under 25 for 202 straight trading days," the longest streak since 2019, according to Brown.



Haven’t heard anyone bring up Steven Ballmer in a long time


Late in Thursday's (12/28) Halftime Report, guest host Frank Holland asked Bryn Talkington about the big year of GBTC and ETHE, which proved a lot different than when Judge asked Bryn about the Tesla "recall" ... "Recall? RECALL????!!!!!!!!??????? IT'S A SOFTWARE UPDATE!!!!!"

Bryn said she didn't buy (presumably GBTC) last January; she's owned for years. Bryn said there's a "fever pitch" for the ETF but we're not hearing anything from the SEC, which Bryn finds "a little bit strange." Bryn did say there are "better ways to own" bitcoin than GBTC.

Meanwhile, Steve Kovach outlined the outlook for AAPL. Steve said there is "good news and bad news" for AAPL in 2024.

Jim Lebenthal again stated, "I don't know anyone in the United States, or the developed world really, who owns an Android phone. I literally know no one."

But Jim said he's "underweight Apple, meaningfully so."

Kevin Simpson said AAPL's multiple in the 30s isn't justified.

Josh Brown pointed out that AAPL's market cap has grown a lot faster than earnings, but he doesn't want to be out of the stock, and he cited the buybacks.

Brown claimed that Steven Ballmer and the "guy from Nokia" thought nobody would buy an iPhone, so Josh doesn't think people are just going to yawn at AAPL's upcoming "VR (snicker) product."

Jim touted the airline trade in 2024.

Bryn said it seems like FDX wants to bounce along the 200-day of 245.

Jim predicted VRTX will do well but noted the multiple.

Bryn lamented selling XBI "like 2 weeks before it has had this massive run."

CNBC's Pippa Stevens reported on blenders that can go crazy.

Pippa Stevens discussed the state of the lithium industry. Bryn said "it's been a negative year" for SQM and ALB but is expecting better times in 2024.

Jim launched into definitions of specialty and commodity and talked up MP.



Weiss opens the door to
a 20%-plus return in 2024


Wednesday's (12/27) Halftime Report was not particularly newsworthy and featured numerous speeches from Jenny Harrington, but Steve Weiss said something that definitely caught our ear.

Weiss said he's looked back 60 years, and having back-to-back years of 20-30% gains is "not as rare as you think."

Weiss said markets are "directional" and that it doesn't matter whether the Fed cuts 3 times or 6 times.

It matters why they cut," Judge stated.

Weiss also said, "The recession question (snicker) is not answered completely yet."

Jenny Harrington said the thing she's "getting nervous about" is whether the "froth" at year-end sets us up for a good 2024.

Joe Terranova declared, "The Santa Claus rally came at the end of October."

Joe said the "big thing" is to "try and identify why yields are not bouncing."

Jenny predicted the "rotation" that started at the end of October into small cap and value "continues."

Nevertheless, "There is a gameification of the market that's happened," Jenny said.



Weiss admits AI comment brought ‘pushback’ in emails


Viewers of Wednesday's (12/27) Halftime Report learned that Steve Weiss got somewhat tripped up by his AI comments a day earlier, when he said, "For all the hoopla about AI that we've seen, it's not really prime-time ready."

Weiss said Wednesday, "I said it yesterday, and I got- I got some pushback in emails that, you know, AI is- AI is not new. AI has been around for years and years. Amazon, they've used AI forever."

"Yeah but that's a different kind of AI," Judge said.

Jenny Harrington referred to some tech upstarts you'll never hear about again and said an article claims "Amazon created its own demise" (snicker).

Jenny not only threw water (as she always does) on the Magnificent 7 but this time is making 10-year calls, saying not to expect tech giants to lead the market "for the next decade." (Sure, why would anyone think the biggest moneymaking companies in the world would lead the market when Lumen Technologies is out there?)

Star guest Matt Powers joined the crew at Post 9 and barely got in a couple sentences about his dividend strategy before Jenny hijacked the conversation to discuss her own dividend strategy. Powers touted MDT and PNC and AEP. Jenny insisted there's a "real misconception" by the market about how GLP drugs are going to affect MDT.

Jenny tried to claim of the big banks, "I don't think you need a catalyst for these guys." Judge said "You kinda do," because you always hear that "they're so many times below book."

CNBC Chipster Kristina Partsinevelos, in fuchsia and boots, discussed current sentiment toward the semi space.



What about Ruth Porat?


Bryn Talkington got our attention early on Tuesday's (12/26) Halftime Report when she said she thinks the market is "setting up with a replay" of late 2017-early 2018.

Hmmmm ... a China trade war and obnoxious TARIFFS coming?

Judge rattled off suggestions by Ed Yardeni and others that maybe the biggest warning sign for the market is that there doesn't seem to be any. Bryn said, "The RSI is still incredibly over, overbought right now," but Bryn thinks January will be "somewhat of a continuation" until there's a "flushing out."

Steve Weiss at least said he expects "clear sailing" for the rest of this week.

Judge said a "former Fed economist" told him and Sara Eisen earlier that the "last mile" of the inflation fight will be the "easiest."

Weiss complained that bank real estate issues "are going to come home to roost." (He probably also thinks the "lag effect" of rate hikes still hasn't been felt.) Weiss said Jim Lebenthal (who was also on the show but not at Post 9) thinks "that's not a problem; we've been through that problem."

Weiss insisted, "That still is a major problem" because they "can't refinance" those buildings.

Judge wondered if the "near-term nature" of those issues has been "overstated." Weiss said that "intellectually," everyone gets the deficit problem, but as far as affecting the market, "I don't really see it." (Translation: The market got over David Stockman decades ago.)

However, Weiss said that just because the real estate issue is being raised "far in advance" doesn't mean the impact is "muted."

Joe Terranova stressed that the 10-year has "stayed" below 4%.

Weiss talked up TDG and predicted it will "keep on going." Joe said, "I like the purchase."

Bryn questioned why GOOGL has a relatively low multiple to MSFT and suggested lack of visionary management. Joe said "Bryn's right," that Alphabet trades at a discount "because there's no Tim Cook, there's no Satya Nadella." (Ah, but remember how much praise they got for hiring a CFO to run the quarterly earnings conference calls?)

Defending GOOGL, Weiss said, "For all the hoopla about AI that we've seen, it's not really prime-time ready." Weiss said ChatGPT is "usable" but "not where it should be" in terms of reliability. Weiss said Alphabet got more efficient over the last year just like META did.

Bryn lamented giving up on XBI in the 70s.

Bryn is actually in the uranium trade, the URNM, saying it's "all about China" because nothing is happening in the U.S. (Uranium was a very early Fast Money interest of Eric Bolling.) Joe said he sees energy in general "beginning to break out." Jim said he "can't believe" we're still waiting for the SPR "refill."




The Najarians’ new ad apparently airs during Power Lunch, probably because either it’s cheaper, or they don’t want to sponsor Halftime/Fast Money


On Friday's (12/22) Halftime Report, Judge asked Jim Lebenthal whether CLF is interested in another offer for X if the U.S. blocks the Nippon deal.

Jim said, "The price has to come down quite a bit."

Joe Terranova speculated that the rules of the JOET will determine it should "pare back the allocation to energy," but if so, Joe thinks that's the "wrong move." (When panelists try to outguess their own algorithms.)

Jim said "Norman (sic) Peltz" late in the program and was corrected by Judge and Stephanie Link.

Guy Adami on Fast Money sure is intrigued by the supposed Xi Jinping/Taiwan comment about "by any means necessary"; Guy has been bringing it up all week.




You’d think CNBC would have a new AI spellcheck program to avoid the same old mistakes with new graphics


Jim Lebenthal on Friday's (12/22) Halftime Report isn't interested in NKE. "For the next 6 months, it's probably dead money," Jim said.

Joe Terranova gave a cautionary speech about market swings: "With zero-dated options present, anything is possible on a day-to-day and an intraday basis. And we witnessed that on Wednesday," Joe said. (Perhaps Joe should catch up with the Najarians' $29.95 book that can be obtained for free.)

Joe again hung a $100 on MS.

Jim said "it's that simple" for BLK, "assets under management are going up."

Joe said Oppenheimer's 1,125 on REGN is a "long way to go."




Cris Collinsworth is a fine sportscaster; honestly, we haven’t thought of him as a ‘legend’


During Friday's (12/22) Halftime, Judge touted Cris Collinsworth's appearance ahead on Closing Bell to discuss how there's going to be an NFL game on Saturday on Peacock only. (See, the point of that interview is to hopefully sway some folks into subscribing to Peacock so they can see this game.)

On Closing Bell, Judge asked Collinsworth about the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers. But somehow, he didn't ask Collinsworth anything about Dave Tepper's Carolina Panthers and how such a Wall Street titan could have so much difficulty putting together a decent football team for 6 years running.

Collinsworth told Judge that Judge can be "our 3rd in the booth" anytime. (We've heard Pete Najarian announce college football. Not sure how Judge would do.)



Jim still doesn’t acknowledge streaming as a business quagmire, believes it’s a viable business (a/k/a smashed by reruns)


There were actually a lot of interesting conversations on Thursday's (12/21) Halftime Report, but we've gotta start with one of our favorite subjects — Jim Lebenthal and Paramount+ (and now, for the time being, "and maybe Warner Bros. Discovery").

Jim shrugged off concerns about PARA's debt, though he doesn't see the synergies with Warner Bros. Disovery. (He's not alone there. It's like merging PayPal with Block/Square/whatever it is.) (It's not like merging (take your pick) GM or F or Stellantis.) (If you think that idea is crazy ...) (Get Phil LeBeau on the line)

Jim said you have to just "get through the noise" around PARA and realize the stock is "undervalued" and "half of book value" at $15. (Translation: It's always about the P.E. ratio.)

Josh Brown though cut in to tackle that argument directly. Josh correctly said "the synergy is they have to shut down streaming."

Jim said he hears that but "respectfully" disagrees. Jim noted PARA said on the last call they're "past peak losses" (snicker) on streaming.

Josh said they're only past peak losses because they're just going to "milk the subscriber base" and give it "less" and will just "smash you over the head with reruns."




The Najarii have a new commercial (we’re guessing they’re not going to sponsor Options Action)


Judge opened Thursday's (12/21) Halftime Report stating that Jim Lebenthal, one of Thursday's panelists, has set a target of 5,100 for next year. (Judge did not ask Jim about Tom Lee's comments on valuation a day earlier on Closing Bell.)

Jim said his call "has everything to do with earnings growth." Judge said he's "surprised" that Jim's target is only expecting an 8% return.

Jim said, "It's the components of the markets that are gonna matter" (ah, that sounds like a bit too much parsing) and that "small caps and the economically sensitive sectors are where we wanna be" (that part's fine).

Bill Baruch said we could top 5,100 and small caps could lead; he thinks we're in a "Goldilocks environment next year."

Josh Brown in a classy comment, stated, "Jim directionally was more right than most of the people that we put in front of the public as vaunted, uh, chief, chief global strategists, chief equity strategists."

Josh did say that "8%'s a really safe, uh, call" because it's the average long-term return, but the markets tend to do higher or lower.



Bill sure doesn’t seem as alarmed as Eric Savitz about AAPL’s 3 straight quarters of negative growth


Judge on Thursday's (12/21) Halftime Report said Eric Savitz's new Barron's story on AAPL indicates "growth is gone" and there's "no clear plan for getting it restarted."

Josh Brown said Savitz makes a "really valid point." Josh said the question is, how long until the mixed-reality headset arrives, and it "could be a while."

Josh said he doesn't think Barron's "spent much time on" the "wild card" of an "AI app store."

Bill Baruch touted AAPL services. Judge pressured Bill to comment on the "3 consecutive quarters of negative growth" and whether the stock's gain this year is "justified."

Bill didn't really answer the question but said the stock will rise with flows into the market, and he touted services and next-generation products.

Kari Firestone said AAPL is trading at 26 times 2025 earnings and she doesn't think it's a buy and is not priced at a "very attractive" level. Josh cut in that AAPL's P.E. ratio should be a premium to the S&P.

"I don't even know an Android user," noted Jim Lebenthal, who questioned how many people are left to switch over to iPhones. Jim likened this Barron's cover to CSCO in 2001 (snicker), which Judge called "the S.I. jinx" (snicker). Josh protested that it's a "bearish cover!" Jim said the CSCO cover was bearish too and the stock hasn't recovered.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said she thinks AAPL is spending on AI and that AAPL is heavily a hardware company and when you "interpolate" (uh oh, we've never interpolated before) the multiple for services, "it's a really high number."




Boy, this Snapchat Plus sounds like a really big deal


Josh Brown on Thursday's (12/21) Halftime Report said he bought SNAP (snicker) and started off saying that the stock "not that long ago was $75 a share." (That's not the first time he's made the former-high argument.)

Brown said SNAP is nonprofitable but very good at building a "sticky user base." He also said there's an "undeniable" momentum for Snapchat Plus.

Bill Baruch said he may trim UBER and he's more likely to trim Big Tech before other names. (This writer is long UBER.)

Jim Lebenthal said "I'm not trimming it, but Boeing's at the top of the list of things to trim." Jim said there's room to run but that BA has gotten "rather enormous in my portfolio." (We get why they say that. We don't get how BA is going up or down based on the size of other positions in Jim's portfolio.)

CNBC's Gorgeous Chipster Kristina Partsinevelos joined the panel and said MU gains are tied to "the selling price climbing higher" rather than volume. Bill Baruch owns MU and suggested it reaches $100.

Kari Firestone thinks KMX is "near bottom for earnings." Kari made a "revvin' up" pun.

Judge said Cathie Wood has made ZM her "5th-largest holding." Josh, who bought ZM recently, said the stock is so cheap, "it would be very hard for them to disappoint." (We've heard that kind of argument many times before, unfortunately.)

Bill questioned Bernstein raising its CAT price target while downgrading the stock. Everyone conceded, as they always do, that it's hard trading DE stock.

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said she wants to buy NKE (it slid afterhours) but urged viewers to "wait 3 days!"



Tom Lee: No one should buy or sell a stock because of valuation


Well, whaddaya know.

Viewers of CNBC's Halftime Report get a daily torrent of valuation calls.

But on Wednesday's (12/20) Closing Bell, Tom Lee told Judge, "As you know, valuation isn't really why anyone should ever sell a stock nor why they should buy a stock. It really should be whether earnings momentum is accelerating."

This page is still waiting for someone on the Halftime Report to explain whether NVDA is/was a buy with a higher P.E. ratio ... or a lower P.E. ratio.



Rich Greenfield on the state of streaming


Rich Greenfield on Wednesday's (12/20) Fast Money said that putting 2 legacy media operations like Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount together doesn't fix the problem. "The problem is, they can't compete with Netflix. They need to stop. They need to shut down these streaming services or scale them back dramatically."

Rich added, "Paramount+ was a bad idea. Let's just call it what it is. It was a bad idea, and it's not working."

Karen Finerman said for balance sheet and other reasons, the idea of a Warner Bros. Discovery-Paramount tie-up "should be dead in the water." Rich should Warner should "go back to HBO" and that "Max is not a core brand; people don't know what it means."

Guest host Tyler Mathisen said he was employed by Time Warner for the first 22 years of his career, and "I cannot think of an enterprise that has gone through more bad deals than Time Warner/Warner."



Karen: Wednesday’s stock market may have been ‘out of steam’


On Wednesday's (12/20) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova started invoking emotions.

Joe said he doesn't have "deep affection" (snicker) for the individual stocks in his portfolio and he doesn't let "ego" get in the way of his stock decisions, but he "made a clear and obvious mistake in October" by selling MS in the mid-70s.

Now, he's not letting his "ego" keep him out of the stock, he's buying it back based on its "destination" of "beyond a hundred dollars."

Judge mentioned James Gorman's scheduled exit interview with David Faber. Joe said MS has great management and he might buy GS also but he doesn't want to lump those in with "money-center" banks, rather, MS and GS stand to benefit from the M&A and IPO scene.

Joe said DE has been a "disappointment," and he expressed concern about the company's outlook.

Meanwhile, Karen Finerman on Wednesday's Fast Money said she doesn't have a "great reason" to explain why the market went south on Wednesday other than "out of steam, maybe." Steve Grasso said it's a "1-day event."

Hours earlier on Halftime, the numbers weren't so bad. "It's definitely been a melt-up few weeks here," said Kari Firestone.

Kari said KMX has a "lot of upside potential" next year.

Brandon Copeland joined the Halftime set late to talk about the "December to Remember" shopping spree for hundreds of kids, and also athletes.org. Joe said of Copeland, "His heart is his biggest thing on that man."

Copeland picked the Baltimore Ravens for the Super Bowl. Moments later, CNBC's Dom Chu said he'll take the 49ers.



Joe says tech bears right now are ‘just as bearish as they were’ in December 2022


Joe Terranova, who had a big day Tuesday at NYSE with bell-ringing duties, on Wednesday's (12/20) Halftime Report made comparisons with last year.

Joe said, "If you think about it," a year ago at this time, there was "overwhelming bearishness" about the Magnificent 7, including from Joe, who admitted "I was part of it," but today, "they're just as bearish as they were then" and telling people that bulls are doing you a "disservice" in suggesting you stick with the names, as Joe generally is doing.

Joe's buying TWLO again, one of his early-pandemic winners, and quibbled with Judge over TWLO being "not profitable." Judge said "it's up 21% in a month." Joe predicted we'll see profitability in "coming quarters" and he wants to buy more in the "mid-60s." Kari Firestone said there probably will be a chance to buy on a pullback as the market rally won't continue "unabated."

Talking up PYPL, Kari admitted, "It's really been a terrible stock" and "any time I've ever said to buy it has been a mistake." That didn't stop her from suggesting it's got "potential" to be like CRM and ADBE and go from "hated" to "loved."

Judge said Wells Fargo downgraded CRM. Kari said the downgrade is "wrong."

Joe said he agrees with a ZS upgrade but he wouldn't buy it at Wednesday's level.




Joe rings bell at NYSE, leads celebration of 3 years of the JOET


Tuesday (12/19) was a day of celebration for CNBC's Halftime Report as longtime panelist Joe Terranova, after appearing on the show, was given the honor of ringing the closing bell at the NYSE.

Incredibly modest, aa always, Joe got really no extra attention during the day, except that the bell-ringing event brought longtime CNBC regular (well, OK, not as much in recent years) Gary Kaminsky to Post 9 for Judge's Closing Bell. Gary said he's known Joe "almost 40 years" and "I'm proud of him."

But actually, Gary got our attention with something else — an alternate take on the state of U.S. inflation that included the possibility of yet another hike.

Gary told Judge he'd been listening to the show's previous 36 minutes worth of guests, and "everybody is certain that the pivot, the pivot party, that the Fed has telegraphed they're gonna cut rates, and I even heard a couple of guests say that inflation is under control. Last I looked, inflation at 4%, compounded over 5 years, individuals lose a third of their purchasing power. That does not mean inflation is under control. Directionally, inflation is under control."

"Isn't that what matters more than anything else?" Judge asked.

"No. Because the Fed is not going to just sit tight at a 4% inflation rate," Gary said.

Gary contended that at 4%, the Fed will have to "look themselves in the mirror and make a determination — do we have to raise one more additional time to send a market- to the, to send a message to the economy that this is what they're trying to do. That's the only tool they have."

Meanwhile, Karen Finerman on Fast Money called the year-end stock rally "a chase" and "some sort of top." Karen also gushed at how well META has done and still is not outrageously expensive.




Hopefully the Najarians were covering their ears when Josh got to Point 4


In a fairly interesting year-end feature, Josh Brown on Tuesday's (12/19) Halftime Report offered 5 New Year's resolutions (we usually can't handle lists longer than 3, but we made an exception for this one) for stock investors, which included this advice:

1) Stop over-trading 2) Stop following "smart money"; 3) Stop listening to charlatans (editor's note: it helps to know who the charlatans are); 4) Stop the options obsession; 5) Stop obsessing over the macro.

Josh said not overtrading was a key to succeeding this year. (We're not sure how that's quantified, but he's probably got some iron-clad brokerage information that no one could possibly question.)

But Josh saved his sharpest advice for retail options traders. Josh said 43% of daily options volume is zero-day expiration, and it's only helping Ken Griffin. Josh said people lose money on options 3 ways, 1) overpaying relative to realized volatility (that one is way beyond our pay grade); 2) incurring "enormous bid-ask spreads," about 8%; "pros don't do that!"; and 3) "trading options into earnings" (the Najarii were always talking up that dynamic).

We're guessing several folks in the Fast Money/Options Action sphere would disagree.




Jenny says this was one of her 3 worst years ever even though performance was somehow ‘quite good’


Jenny Harrington on Tuesday's (12/19) Halftime Report said she just wrote in an email to a client in the morning that "when I reflect back on my career, this will be one of the 3 worst years I've ever had," not because of performance, which Jenny said was "quite good," but because of the "mental duress (sic first of those words redundant) that this year caused."

So having a "quite good" year caused her ... "mental duress"?

Joe Terranova suggested ADBE got an upgrade because with the deal called off, it could buy more stock, and that regulators did stockholders "a favor."

Josh Brown said he's keeping an eye on SNAP and doesn't think he's missed it yet. He cited something called "Snap Plus" (snicker) (apparently it's officially "Snapchat Plus") that costs $4 a month.




Judge points out that 2 of his panelists are dispensing utterly contradicting advice


From all indications, the beginning of Tuesday's (12/19) Halftime Report looked like things were gonna be sleepy.

Then Judge suddenly caught fire and made one of his best observations in months.

Judge and Josh Brown started things off by noting how sentiment has somehow matched the upward trajectory of the Dow chart. (Who woulda thought.)

Josh said the "everything else trade" is working and will do so into year-end.

Judge said we seem to be getting "some trickle" from cash into stocks. Joe Terranova stated, "I will say this: I think over the next several weeks, you wanna be on the offensive."

Joe said we're 1% from an all-time S&P high and even added that those who a year ago "pivoted in the direction of money market funds" for a 4.75% yield are "basically the New England Patriots at this point. You lost."

(Well, um, Joe's wrong about that. You're not the "Patriots" if you kept your money in money market funds. You did a perfectly fine strategy and came out ahead. You're the Patriots if you bought and kept reloading MRNA or certain other names.)

Joe bluntly stated that if you sit in those money market funds in 2024, it's "poor risk-management strategy" and "indicative of someone that's afraid of taking risk in the market." (And all across Wall Street, people were wondering, "Sign of the top?")

Judge though noted that people may find it "difficult" to buy after a 6-week tear and stated, "The time to add more risk was before." Josh Brown chimed in that "all (snicker) of the academic literature (snicker) suggests that there is a, a positive effect from buying after stocks have gone up. Joe wrote a whole book about it." (Hmmmmm ... wonder if Joe's book has become "academic literature.")

Despite what he said moments earlier about market gains boosting sentiment, Josh said Vegas was built on "the gambler's fallacy," meaning people seeing the roulette wheel turn up red, red, red, red and thinking "it's gotta be black now. That's not how it works. Every spin is independent of the one prior."

But Joe asserted that trends persist because "the predominance of market activity today is algorithmically generated."

Finally given a chance, Jenny Harrington teased, "I know where we're goin'," undoubtedly putting viewers on the edges of their seats.

Judge said, "Tell me where."

Jenny's answer was, "OK so I think things move asymmetrically" (Zzzzzzzz), which was the rationale for Jenny selling VFC in the prior week, which she'd just been touting 2 or 3 times in the last couple months.

Jenny said she bought VFC at 19; "there were no humans trading that thing down from 17 to 13." Jenny added that she has "tons of positions" that last week were "up 15 and 20%" and she thought, "hogs get slaughtered."

That's when Judge hit a home run: "I almost feel like Josh just made the case to do the exact opposite." (What does he mean, "almost." That's exactly the case Josh made.)

"No. Not at all. No no no," Josh insisted.

"He made at the macro portfolio level," Jenny explained, whatever that means.

"We don't disagree. We're- we're- I was building on what Joe was saying market-wide," Brown tried to claim. "Of course there are stocks that went up too much last week. Of course there are stocks that didn't go up enough. That'll always be the case. I'm saying there is a tendency on the part of people who haven't been around for a long time or have a short memory to look at new highs, look at, uh, look at stocks at 52-week highs or all-time highs, and conclude, 'I missed it.' That's all I'm saying. And that is not how it works."

Ah. So there are stocks that will go higher, and stocks that will go lower. And you should be holding the former, not the latter.



Josh gushes praise on Stephanie for buying GE years ago when Stephanie would’ve made more money buying NVDA or TSLA or META but for THE VALUATION


In a curious, virtually-holiday-week feature on Tuesday's (12/19) Halftime Report, Judge turned the program over to Josh Brown to talk about Brown's own declaration of PFE as the "chart of the year."

Brown said that distinction is because of how bad it is, "probably the worst individual stock story of 2023." Josh noted PFE "doubled and tripled down on COVID" while others were "racing to develop" the weight-loss drugs. But Josh wondered if ... we're talking about PFE here, which Josh apparently doesn't realize ... it could be "one of the best turnarounds of all time."

Jenny Harrington suggested that Josh picked PFE because "you like to pick fights with me" and was looking for "the worst one" in her portfolio.

(Pfizer, by the way, used to be mocked on the original Fast Money as a not-particularly-sexy stock.)

Jenny said she's owned PFE since 2007, initially buying at 24, trimming in 2019 around 40 and in 2022 over 50. (So she's made gobs of money on it and can't be blamed for owning it in 2023, OK, fine.) But Jenny said she liked what Josh wrote about PFE, that it's not a terrible company and should be viewed separately from its share price. Jenny said "consistency on earnings" (Zzzzzzzz) would turn the share price around.

Judge tried to support Josh's strong argument that PFE is simply not in the desirable spaces such as GLP drugs and is in the "wrong trend in health care." Jenny kept chirping, "Guys! Guys! It's not a winner takes all!"

Joe Terranova said, "I don't like Lilly; I love Lilly," stating it "trades like a biotech company." (He means it's going up, not doing what MRNA is doing.) Joe said that he's watching the ticker and PFE was "rallying as we speak." (If it's rallying on this discussion ... wow.)



Sounds like Joe thinks machines and not humans are better at picking stocks


In yet another example of Tuesday's (12/19) Halftime Report shouldn't sell stocks/should sell stocks advice, Judge asked Josh Brown about AMD being up 46% since Halloween.

Josh said "I should be trimming it; I just don't own enough of it where I would really be like massively hit by a, a drawdown." (That's an interesting rationale.)

But "there's no way the fundamentals of AMD just doubled, uh, in terms of how good they are," Brown said.

Brown said his most likely sell inclination would be when a stock has "gotten too big in the context of my overall portfolio."

Judge asked Joe Terranova about JOET component EXPE being up 57% since Nov. 1. Joe said, "I will respond to that by saying, no motivation whatsoever to move away from it."

Joe related how he sold AVGO personally a couple weeks ago and that became a "horrible move," while the JOET "didn't trim" AVGO, and look what the stock did.

Stephanie Link offered a lengthy rationale for not selling NKE. Jenny Harrington at one point said of NKE, "I'd be worried going in to next week. If it were mine, I would trim it."

Tyler Mathisen, guest host of Tuesday's Fast Money, said his son actually had to write a class report about NKE stock, "which meant I had to write a report about it."



Judge protests that he doesn’t ‘really know’ Lourenco Goncalves


Jim Lebenthal wasn't a regular panelist on Monday's (12/18) Halftime Report but beamed in late about the US Steel deal, which of course Jim's favorite stock (CLF) didn't actually win (and actually way underbid the prevailing market price).

Jim said CLF buying X would've been a "really cool deal" and that for Nippon, "there's hair on this deal," including that the "union's not on board" and there's antitrust concern.

Jim credited CLF nevertheless, stating the company's offer for X in August "re-rated the entire sector." Jim said CLF has outperformed the S&P for 5 years and "there is a lot more to come."

Jim told Judge, "I think you know Lourenco."

"I only met him once. I don't really know him," Judge said. (The funny thing about that is, Judge would probably boast that he "does" know David Tepper ... but still doesn't have the brass to talk about the Carolina Panthers during the Halftime Report.)

"His public image is not far from his private image," Jim explained. Who knew Lourenco has a "private image." Jim said, "He's gonna look for another deal." And if not, there's always the staple of Jim's stock arguments: the buybacks.



Joe: Repeat for Magnificent 7 would be ‘nightmare scenario’ for active managers


Joe Terranova raised a very interesting point on Monday's (12/18) Halftime Report, questioning how many people are really positioned for a repeat performance from the Magnificent 7.

Joe said the "nightmare scenario" for an active manager is that a year from now, we've had more significant outperformance from the Magnificent 7, and "nobody is going to position for that in 2024. ... That can happen again."

Jason Snipe said "I totally get what you're saying" because a lot of people were "offsides" tech this year. Jason still likes AMZN and that "Jassy is now fully enthrottled in the seat." (Hmmmm, not sure how convinced we are of that.)

Steve Weiss said what's "always haunting" (snicker) is whether this is the year regulators restructure any of the tech giants. But he thinks the regulators will "fail again."

Joe said Alphabet and META will benefit from "significant ad spending" next year with the Olympics and presidential election coming up.

Apparently endorsing NFLX, Jason Snipe said the streamer's crackdown on password sharing "has played out" and "hasn't gone as well as expected" but will "follow through" into 2024, and he said "they're building their free cash flow."



Mike gives the green light


At the top of Monday's (12/18) Halftime Report, Judge said Mike Wilson has a new note about equities appearing to have the "green light" and may be "entering a sweet spot," in case you were wondering what Mike's been thinking about stock direction in the last 36 hours.

"It does seem like a pivot by Mike," Steve Weiss conceded, stating Mike is a "good thinker" but that some thought he was "stubborn for a long time" and maybe "overstayed his welcome" in the bear camp.

Weiss said the market made a "more aggressive" pivot than Jay Powell did.

Weiss said "it just doesn't matter" when the Fed eases, only that it's on the table.

"There is a lot of optimism going forward," offered Jason Snipe, who cautioned that "we've moved a lot in the last few weeks."

Joe Terranova said there's $6 trillion in cash sitting in money market funds. Maybe exemplifying that, Liz Young's Final Trade was a 6-month T-bill. (Let's not get too excited.) #Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Liz said, "Right now the rotation play is still very much intact," in that people who had the "big winners" are rotating into "laggards."

Liz said the breadth of the rally has been "astonishing" (remember Josh Brown's "breadth thrust"/maybe it was "bread crust"?), though it would be "natural" for the market to take a little bit of it back.

Judge said the WSJ is reporting that more Americans own stock than ever before. Liz said it's "excellent" and "great" that there's so much "DIY investment," but it's a little "concerning" that many probably aren't diversified enough and "diversification does work" and "hopefully that lesson is being heard."



Weiss bluntly speculates about a world without Buffett


Asked on Monday's (12/18) Halftime Report about the Barron's 10 stocks list, Steve Weiss started with Berkshire and made a stark declaration about life spans, stating, "Ultimately, um, Warren Buffett won't be around, right, he's- he's getting up there, what happens after it ... we still don't really have a good feel for his successor."

So Weiss finds it "kind of interesting" that BRK.B would be on the Barron's list. Weiss also said he'd rather own a biotech basket than BNTX, and he thinks the rest of the list is Barron's "trying too hard to be different."

Joe Terranova said it's interesting that Weiss "didn't mention" BABA, but it's a "ridiculously cheap company" and "China might be the one area of the world that has the most significant comeback in 2024."

Weiss said of BABA, "I shorted the stock at 256; I covered way too early. And then I went long."

Jason Snipe said there might be an "opportunity" in biotech.

Weiss conceded Warren Buffett talks about succession "repeatedly." But, "A lot of people own this for Buffett." And if he's not there at BRK.B, "is it just a proxy for the S&P"?

Liz Young noted there aren't financials on the Barron's list, and just because something's been out of favor "doesn't mean it's due to do well." Liz said small caps "are an OK place to be in 2024" but they've had a "huge run."



C’s been at the $5 pre-reverse-split level forever


Jason Snipe on Monday's (12/18) Halftime Report called the PANW downgrade by Raymond James a "trimming call."

Joe Terranova said the call is "100% correct" even though he's long the name. "Sooner or later, you're- you're going to see a pullback." Joe suggested if you're "moving out" of PANW, try FTNT instead.

Liz Young said the regional bank issue is still "not solved," so big banks are a "better bet" next year. Steve Weiss said the downside in C is "relatively low" and the upside "can be significant," which is what C longs have been saying for literally 15 years. (Remember when Joe asserted that when C got back to $5, all kinds of institutions would buy it?)

CNBC Chipster Kristina Partsinevelos discussed semi cycles and how they're not all the same; some linked to AI and others to autos. Judge said Jonathan Krinsky is saying that the semi surge "feels more like a blowoff top." Joe said it doesn't feel like a blowoff top; there's "so much fundamentally there." Jason Snipe likes QCOM, citing PCs and handsets "bottoming."

Jason bought INTU saying there's "maybe another 10, 15%." Steve Weiss bought more FCX, his stock of December. He sees "a lot of upside" and a "hedge" if he's wrong about the economy. Joe owns FCX and called it a "decent position."

Dan Nathan made a great reference on Fast Money to the Triple Lindy. Tim Seymour bungled the conversation by attempting to define the term for viewers and misfiring badly on the movie's title.



Jim says not to start unloading during the next ‘momentary downturn’


On Friday's (12/15) Halftime Report, guest host Frank Holland said Barclays is predicting a "bumpy start to 2024" and that the market has been "borrowing from 2024 returns."

Jim Lebenthal, though, insisted "there's a lot of runway left." But Jim allowed that primary season in presidential politics brings out "extreme things" from candidates before things get "more sane" later in the year.

Jim said he has "trouble" with the question of whether the rally is "sustainable." Jim said it's "highly likely" there will be a "pause" or "pullback" of 2-4% in the next 1-3 weeks. However, he doesn't want a "momentary downturn" to cause people to "start selling like crazy." (But if they did, wouldn't that be a tremendous buying opportunity for everyone else?)

Jim advised looking at "the other 493 stocks."

Brian Belski said bears just "can't wait" for any downside.

JPM's Michael Feroli, the star guest of the show, said March is "probably premature" for a rate cut.

Feroli predicted QT "probably goes through the end of next year."

Kevin Simpson said his shop bought WM. (As Dalton says in "Road House," "All ya gotta do is watch my back ... and each others' ... take out the trash.") Kevin also bought more IBM (Zzzzzzzz). He started by mentioning dividend and forward multiple (Zzzzzzzzzz). (What are the new products.) Kevin also mentioned "synergy" from Red Hat. Jim said one thing that's made him "squirrelly" on IBM is the "debt on the balance sheet."

Stephanie Link said AVGO is up "27% in a week" but its 24-times multiple is "much below" NVDA's 40.

Jim again made his case for trimming NKE after such a big recent gain.

Jim was asked about the UBS upgrade of BA. "I am a believer," he said perhaps an homage to The Monkees.

Jim said he has "a lot of faith" in Jane Fraser's leadership at C. Brian Belski contended that C is "very underowned."

Brian Belski's Final Trade was actually a bank called "Glacier."



Jim sells NKE; Weiss buys DE


Thursday's (12/14) Halftime Report was basically an extended victory lap from the big Fed news of a day earlier.

Josh Brown opened the show talking up the IWN, saying it's up 18% in the last 30 days, but that's understandable, because it's lagged so much.

Josh said people should "chill out" when referring to the T-bills bringing 5%; Josh noted that's an "annualized" rate and that once you hold them for 6 months, they presumably won't be rolling over at 5%.

Rob Sechan predicted a "broadening out of markets."

Jim Lebenthal sold NKE and bought UNH. Jim said he held NKE for just 2½ months but got 27% in that time.

Josh said BAC has made a "pretty notable 180."

Josh said he's watching SNAP.

Rob said ADBE has been "kinda priced for perfection."

Steve Weiss wasn't a panelist but dialed in to report buying DE to get "exposure to cyclicals."

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said she's "surprised at the magnitude of this rally" and "I am short Treasurys" because big 10-year auctions are "not that far away." Steve Liesman agreed with Steve Grasso that Jay Powell made a "big change" in just 2 weeks.




‘Recall’??? ‘RECALL’????? Bryn sounds like Jim Mora talking about the playoffs


Judge went to Bryn Talkington on Wednesday's (12/13) Halftime Report for an assessment of the TSLA recall problem.

Making an Apple 15 phone overheating analogy, Bryn shrugged that "everyone's like freaking out" about the Tesla "recall" (she said, "I'm putting it in quotes") of 2 million cars, when it's just doing a "software update."

"I feel like you're being a little dismissive of the issue itself," Judge told Bryn, stressing it is "a lot of vehicles" and "not exactly the first time" there have been issues with Tesla's autonomous driving.

Bryn said her issue is with the term "recall," which implies that "cars are gonna have to go into the shop." Bryn said full self-driving is still "years out."

Judge said comparing the TSLA news to an iPhone software update "is a little bit of a stretch." Bryn said "humans are terrible drivers," so she gets the "want" to make driving safer and is "all for making this safer" and she isn't letting a "robot" drive her car and will "keep my hands on the wheel."



Evidently the Fed wasn’t so interested in keeping the market ‘honest’


Typically, pre-Fed Wednesday episodes of the Halftime Report tend to be pretty stale by about 3 p.m. Eastern time.

But this Wednesday (12/13) wasn't too bad.

Joe Terranova said he'd love to be able to ask Jay Powell the "first question," which would be, "In your internal discussions, were you at least thinking about thinking about cutting rates?" (Answer: Obviously, they were.) (This review was posted overnight Wednesday-Thursday.)

Steve Liesman pointed to the "lousy" CPI component of "shelter" and said his "concern" is that being data-dependent, the Fed may be making decisions on "bad" or "outmoded" data.

Steve said Jay Powell needs to "declare neutral" before he starts declaring cuts.

Bryn Talkington offered, "We still have this bias of the last 15 years that all of a sudden we're gonna just cut rates and go back to these go-go years." But Bryn said we've actually averaged Fed funds being "a solid 240 basis points above CPI."

Steve Weiss suggested Powell could remove the comment about how they could still hike, which would be the only phrase that would be "game-changing" for the market. (Or just "3 cuts next year.")

Sarat Sethi said "the other, smarter Steve" (meaning Liesman) is correct that if Powell says he's going to "neutral," that would help the market, because going "straight to down" would make the market wonder what it's missing. (Hmmmm ... OK.)

Joe raised the possibility, however distant, that Powell says another rate hike is still "in play" (snicker). Judge said if Powell says that, we'll have to wonder "what are they possibly looking at."

Then Judge clumsily questioned why the Fed would talk about "more cuts (sic)" and "why would they do that?" before the panelists corrected him to "more hikes."

Weiss said the Fed may do that to "keep the market honest."



Joe says UBER can reach the 70s ‘easily’


Judge on Wednesday's (12/13) Halftime Report said Truist hung a $600 3-year target on MSFT.

Steve Weiss said he doesn't know if it'll get to $500 or $600, but that's "the direction it's going."

Joe Terranova said targets like $600 make you think it's not even a $4 trillion company but a $5 trillion company, that once we got through $1 trillion or $2 trillion, "there's no more ceiling." (Hmmmmm ... can it go to infinity?)

Joe made the case for GOOGL having more "upside potential" than AAPL based on "generative AI." (This writer is long GOOGL.) Joe suggested AMZN comes back "strongly" in 2024. Weiss said he agrees on GOOGL but wonders about the impact of the Epic case vs. Alphabet.

Bryn said RBLX has done "really well," up about 45% this year. But she said it'll take consistent free cash flow to get above 50.

Judge said JPMorgan made a "top pick" call on UBER and gave it a 72 target. (This writer is long UBER.) Sarat Sethi said he'll start trimming in the "earlier part of the year" for tax reasons. Joe said he bought UBER at 36 (which doesn't help anyone now) and that Uber is "mobility," but he trimmed last Friday because it just got too large in the portfolio. However, he does think it can reach the 70s "easily."



Weiss says Joe’s got exposure to ‘450 stocks’


Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (12/13) Halftime Report said homebuilders have had a good year because of the tight housing market and are in the "sweet spot" for the unwinding of the "transactional recession."

Steve Weiss suggested the builders are a "proxy" for interest rates. He said they're always at 10 times earnings, so right now they're "fairly valued."

Sarat Sethi said JNJ got downgraded because there's "no short-term catalyst."

Sarat touted TMO. (Joe used to occasionally mention that one.)

Joe predicted VRTX "continues to march higher."

Joe said he'll continue to own GLD for the "degree of insurance" for "further economic contraction" and "disinflation."

Bryn Talkington said she "totally" understands reasons to own gold and that there can be "10 different reasons" why it should rally but it "tends to do none of the above."

Weiss said FCX is another way to play housing, commercial construction and EVs (snicker), though he conceded the latter may "continue to disappoint."

Talking about all-time high stocks, Joe touted V and MA. Joe also mentioned "Palo Alto" and said he was "surprised" at the strength in BKNG given turbulence in the Middle East. Weiss doesn't own V or MA or COST because they're not cheap enough but he does own the JOET, "and I have a lot of exposure there, including to the other 450 stocks he owns."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said Wednesday's market reaction felt "a little bit heavy." Carter Worth said 3½=5% is OK but if we go below 3½%, then "we have a problem."



Weiss admits: ‘Yes, the bear case is tired’


On Tuesday's (12/12) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss said the CPI "gave the market what it wanted" and, assuming PPI is "the same," then we can rally through month's end. Judge wondered if the rally can go beyond year-end. Weiss said it could, but people may sell Big Tech "after the first of the year" for tax reasons.

Shannon Saccocia made Weiss' typical argument, that the rate hikes still (somehow) are "not fully transmitted through the economy" (snicker).

Judge haggled with both Shannon and Jenny Harrington over how being "neutral" on stocks, Judge noted, is not a "positive."

Jenny said we'll be working down the 2011-2021 "sugar high" of 16% annual returns for a long time.

Josh Brown said a switch was flipped on stocks around April and May and the result has been a "7-month rampage." (Well, we checked our ledger for September-October; those months weren't exactly a "rampage.")

Josh said Germany's Dax is at "10-year highs."

Judge asked Weiss if the bear case is "tired."

"Yes, the bear case is tired," Weiss admitted, but he still sees more "negative catalysts" (snicker) (probably the lagging effect of rate hikes) than positive ones, including regional bank issues.



No debates this time between Jenny & Weiss on the ‘horrendous’ (Chinese) economy (see below)


Steve Liesman on Tuesday's (12/12) Halftime Report delivered the old saw about how (not an actual quote) JAY POWELL ISN'T GOING TO FLINCH AT ALL NO SIR BECAUSE THIS AIN'T GONNA BE THE 70S AGAIN!!!! (Wow. Because he's not going to let an incredibly fluky, completely obvious onetime inflation hike that isn't possibly sustainable depress our economy for the next 10 years. #financialheroes)

Josh Brown said "mortgage rates have been crashing" and suggested Barron's cover story is a contraindicator and said Z had gotten into bad businesses and that's "all over now" and he may buy, he hasn't already because it's been in an "absolute rampage for the last couple of weeks."

Bill Baruch said ORCL just had its "2nd bad quarter in a row" and the stock is on his "chopping block."

Steve Weiss called HUM a "very reasonable purchase" at Tuesday's prices.

Jenny Harrington took a victory lap on buying RIO at 46, but she's not selling; "we're in this for the long haul."

Judge said Goldman Sachs reiterated a sell on KSS, one of Jenny's favorites. Jenny claimed her shop determined it's worth maybe $30 or $40. Jenny thinks there's still "a lot of upside" in VFC.

Near the end of the show, Jenny offered some dividend picks for 2024, but there were so many, we can't list them all.




Too much white background in CNBC graphics overhaul, harder to read than it should be


Given that Monday was a momentous day in the history of business television — CNBC changed around its graphics and set backdrops (which were already in the process of changing) — we had hoped to go to town with a bunch of pictures and analysis.

But real life kinda got in the way at CNBCfix HQ, so, other than a stray comment or two, that'll all have to wait until later in the week.

Joe Terranova announced at the top of Monday's (12/11) Halftime Report that "This is without question a very huge week." (Probably the hugest week since the ... last huge week.)

Joe said he looked it up, in 2021, from Dec. 20 to Dec. 31, "the S&P 500 rallied 5%." So Joe says there's "precedent" and "possibility" for the same thing happening now. (There have probably been Dec. 20 to Dec. 31 stretches in other years that lost 5%, so maybe there's a "precedent" for that too.)

"Clearly this is a huge week," agreed Jason Snipe, who said Jay Powell "needs to thread the needle."

Jim Lebenthal offered, "The thing that would worry me is if the CPI comes in hot tomorrow." But Jim doesn't expect that.

Joe again predicted that with a 10-year under 4%, "I think you're gonna see a lot of capital coming out of cash, into risk assets."

Judge said Dubravko Lakos is actually at "4,200 (snicker) for next year" and Mike Wilson is at 4,500 (snicker).

Joe said that unlike Ari Wald, he doesn't think regional banks will take the market to new highs, but Joe does prefer regional banks to money-center banks.

Jim said he wonders if GOOGL's multiple makes it a "value stock." (This writer is long GOOGL.) Jim said that NVDA at 24 times forward earnings has "a lot of cushion" on the downside. (Apparently if P.E. ratios are a certain number, the stocks aren't supposed to fall very far.)

Jim affirmed that he bought NKE a couple months ago at 94. But he's concerned it's getting "a little expensive." Joe praised Steve Weiss, who wasn't on Monday's show, for a "good job" discussing the China recovery last week.

Discussing the OXY deal and energy, Joe asserted that "supply is overwhelming demand right now."

NFL/college football great Eddie George joined the Post 9 set to talk about being a financial advisor and a football coach.

On Fast Money, discussing M, Guy Adami and Tim Seymour traded quotes from "Wall Street." Tim somehow had a great line, stating, "Macy's best work was probably back when that movie came out."



Weiss was referring to China when he said ‘horrendous’


(Sigh ...)

These are the types of conversations that give this page an extra half-hour of work.

Steve Weiss on Friday's (12/8) Halftime Report was saying the U.S. economy isn't that great, then called the Chinese economy "horrendous."

Jenny Harrington, either not hearing Weiss' entire statement or not paying attention, apparently thought Weiss was calling the U.S. economy "horrendous."

And Weiss unfortunately didn't correct Jenny (and Judge sat on his hands), instead choosing to argue anyway with Jenny about the U.S. economy, which he never actually said was as bad as Jenny indicated he said it was.

Got all that?

It started when Joe Terranova said he's "not takin' any profit in Lululemon."

"I sold LULU way too long ago," Weiss admitted.

Jim Lebenthal suggested letting the "momentum run in Nike" and suggested that company's potential in China.

Weiss said the consumer isn't as healthy as people say, and then he said, regarding NKE, that the Chinese economy is "horrendous."

"I don't know what you're reading, Steve," said Jenny Harrington. "What are you reading that the economy's horrendous."

"I'm reading facts," Weiss said.

Jenny said she's hearing from 15 financial services CEOs and it's "not horrendous," and she told Weiss, "Maybe you're self-selecting what you're reading for a particularly negative scenario."

Weiss protested that it sounds like Jenny is saying CEOs of publicly traded companies "are out there telling a positive story on their fundamentals," while Weiss is looking at "data" that are the "leading indicators."

Weiss said Jamie Dimon "has never been as negative." Jenny said, "Jamie's always negative!"

Thankfully, a commercial finally came.



Tom Lee one of the few people still saying ‘FANG’ (a/k/a Judge sure lost interest fast in Zuck’s stock sales)


Judge on Friday's (12/8) Halftime Report aired Tom Lee's clip from Closing Bell a day earlier in which Tom said people may fade the FANG multiple expansion in favor of the financials' multiple expansion.

Jim Lebenthal said he "completely" agrees with Tom. Steve Weiss though shrugged that "there's gotta be a lot clearer path to the Fed cutting rates" for Lee's theory of financials, industrials, small caps and then tech to work out, and that Weiss doesn't believe a soft landing is "assured."

Judge brought in Steve Kovach to discuss the Google Gemini demo and how the presentation was "edited." (This writer is long GOOGL.) Steve said the company says it's supposed to be an "illustrative version of what Gemini could be like when it's finally out."

Judge asked Alphabet long Jim what he thinks. Jim said the market is "synthesizing" the opinions of Brad Gerstner (skeptical) and Josh Brown (optimistic) on Google and meanwhile, GOOGL has a 20x forward multiple while MSFT is at 30x.

Weiss said Alphabet's got a lot of money to play catch-up in AI or other endeavors and "there will always be a gap between the valuation in Google and Microsoft." Weiss added, "This is just noise today."

Jenny Harrington doesn't see "significant downside" nor "significant upside" in Big Tech names. But names in her portfolio such as SCHW and URI of course have lower P.E. ratios.



Still nothing from Weiss about mighty MRNA


Neither Judge nor anyone else on the panel was stationed at Post 9, which meant it was back to stale pandemic-era home video setups, including Joe's 3-number room, (sigh), while Judge was getting the whiz-bang kaleidoscopic treatment at Englewood Cliffs.

Joe Terranova suggested you may want to trim from the "crowded" parts of the market.

Joe sold half of JPM, UBER and AVGO. Joe said it's because "the chase for performance is over" and cited the "inability to break below 4%" in the 10-year in the morning. Joe said he's interested in redeploying that cash into possibly NKE, TWLO, MS, GS and even RF.

Judge noted Joe's repeated mention of 4% on the 10-year and wondered if Joe is "impatient," and "why don't you give it a chance."

Jim Lebenthal said the market needed a strong labor report and got it, even if the average hourly earnings were a little higher than the Fed wants. Jim said it was a "pretty good report."

Steve Weiss said the fact stocks weren't slumping with rates rising suggests a "continued rally through the end of the year."

Weiss said the Fed meeting will be an "afterthought and a sideshow" to the CPI and PPI.

Jenny Harrington said she sees a "change of leadership" in the market, which is basically what Jenny always says whenever tech is the leader.



When was the last time you heard someone talk about Threads?


Jim Lebenthal on Friday's (12/8) Halftime Report got a chance to trumpet PARA, which he said "obviously" was oversold, and Jim asserted, "M&A is the way out of the morass here." (What happened to all the great business fundamentals.)

Jim said ORCL's multiple is "quite forgiving."

Joe Terranova said to buy COST on a dip.

The last 10 minutes of the show are generally where Jenny Harrington gets to make a speech about the next great low-P.E. value stock. Friday it was CARR, with a "12 times EBITDA multiple."

Jenny's Final Trade was a stock that costs 3 dollars and 93 cents, based on its dividend.

Jim said RIG has been good for 2 years but "terrible for the last 3 months," though he "strongly" believes in the company.



Other than NVDA’s chart, AI is a boring subject


At the top of Thursday's (12/7) Halftime Report, GOOGL was the topic and Josh Brown got some jabs in at Brad Gerstner; "how mad is Brad today," Brown asked. (This writer is long GOOGL.)

Bryn Talkington said Alphabet merely "closed like a sentiment gap" in AI.

Bill Baruch said he expects AAPL to hit a "new record high here, I mean, as we close out the year."

Josh said he bought a little AMD but didn't buy enough. He said AMD can make "inroads" but doesn't have the same "ecosystem" as NVDA.

Bryn Talkington "wouldn't give up" on energy but cautioned that China will remain a headwind.

Bill cautioned that the market may be disappointed if it expects a March rate cut.

Josh said mortgage rates are "crashing."

Bill talked up his recent buy of DPZ and its strength in "search analytics" as a result of its "loyalty program." Josh said $400 has been resistance for DPZ for 18 months; he thinks it's about to punch through.

Bryn said the market likes ABBV's deal; she thinks it's "very positive."

Bryn said "I just don't wanna be in the financials." Josh said, "If you have a bubble next year, Goldman'll do great."

On Fast Money, Tim Seymour clumsily stated that "the recession is now consensus," then moments later backpedaled and said, "Sorry, no recesssion ... no recession is now consensus."



Is 20% a ‘disaster’ (a/k/a Actually we can think of other things that would be a worse nightmare for Jim than NVDA slumping)


In what seems a bit of a vote for the Cathie Wood stocks (haven't heard much about those lately), Anastasia Amoroso on Wednesday's (12/6) Halftime Report suggested a couple times that the unprofitable tech trade, namely companies that "didn't have a chance in this rate environment," may get a bounce.

Anastasia said that if the Fed starts cutting, that "lifts a lot of boats," so it looks like the rally could broaden.

Anastasia explained that "everyone got into this market" and said AAII bears are "basically nonexistent," which suggests some "consolidation lower" in December.

Anastasia also asserted, "The market tends to move higher 6 months ahead of the rate cut."

Joe Terranova suggested a lot of the "chasing" in the market this fall "has already been done."

Joe contended that "seasonals have worked remarkably well" and said the Russell's seasonally strong time is from "January through Valentine's Day." Judge demanded to know who's going to sell AAPL or MSFT. Joe said the "crowded" trades will ease a bit as people buy the "neglected."

But Joe said the Russell won't have the earnings in January to "defeat" this year's leadership, so gains early next year will be a "false start."

Jason Snipe said we had a "magnificent move in November." But he doesn't see a "tremendous impact" from the December Fed meeting. Jason thinks there's still bullishness to be "unlocked" next year.

Jason suggested "growth is still in vogue."

Jim Lebenthal contended that Wednesday's trading looks like that "long-awaited rotation," though he conceded rotation calls have been "folly."

Jim claimed that momentum in the "unloved sectors" may actually get people's attention. Judge told Jim that he better not hope for that, as Jim bought into NVDA "late" and that a selloff in Big Tech would be Jim's "worst nightmare."

Jim said he's not predicting a "disaster" in Big Tech but maybe dips of 10, 15, 20%. Judge suggested 20% is a "disaster."

Joe said he spoke to "a lot of people in fixed income" about the impact of the yields below 4%, and people told him that under 4% is "closer to the bottom" of the range this year (seems like anyone could simply acquire that information by looking at a chart), which means a lot of funds will move from Treasurys into risk, Joe said.

Jim said he's not unaware that there's "danger out there" if there's too much of a slowdown.



If they’ve had 5 layers of management, how come CNBCers have been recommending it often since 2009 (a/k/a Mel’s impressive grammar catch)


Jim Lebenthal on Wednesday's (12/6) Halftime Report said Jane Fraser has been cutting "5 layers of management." Jim said Jane got "absolutely no honeymoon."

Anastasia Amoroso said tech is a "cleaner story" than financials. Joe Terranova indicated he likes MS and BAC and GS more than JPM.

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said banks are facing "tighter regulations" but may have a little success on "pushback." Karen said C has been restructuring since "maybe earlier than 2007." Karen said the C valuation is "always astounding to me" and so it's "too appealing for me to own none."

Dan Nathan said big banks are "like utilities now."

Steve Grasso said JPM is still the outperformer but like Dan, he doesn't see "tremendous upside" in this space.

Missy Lee impressively corrected herself when she first said "less than" and changed it to "fewer" without skipping a beat.

Back on Halftime, Anastasia said a rebound in private equity fundraising would give APO a boost.

CNBC Chipster Kristina Partsinevelos spoke from San Jose about AMD's new AI chip. Joe Terranova said he doesn't want to "chase the semis."

Jason Snipe touted AZO, which just had a good report; Jason made the since-the-show's-inception-and-earlier point that the "average age of a car is 12½ years," which ... psssst ... as far as we can tell, has been the case for about the last 20 years, maybe more. (But if it works as a stock catalyst, so be it.)

Jim said he is acknowledging that DE is a "battleground stock." He said it's got a "very low bar" and, of course, mentioned valuation, which Jim said is "very forgiving" at 12x forward. (So apparently that means stocks with a 12x forward multiple are going up.) (But not as can't-not-own-some as C's valuation.)

Joe Terranova said he hopes Jim is right, but "I think the ag cycle is over."

Jim predicted oil will trade in a range of $60 to $80. Jim said the SPR "just absolutely needs to be filled." (We think the average age of all the cars in the SPR is probably about 12 years.)

Addressing DHI and LEN being in the JOET, Joe said, "Sometimes, momentum actually works."



A day without GM


Right after the A Block on Tuesday's (12/5) tepid Halftime Report, Judge brought in Andrew Wellington to Post 9.

Judge said Andrew's "value-based mutual fund" is up 19% in 2023. Judge joked that "I look at your holdings, and I'm like, I don't know, this guy looks like a growth investor hiding out as a value guy. I mean you have those kinds of stocks."

Andrew said "value and growth aren't always the best labels," but his "value bona fides are unquestionable" as his portfolio's average P.E. is 10. (Which of course means the stocks are going up, because the average P.E. ratio is 10.) (Or maybe it means the stocks can't go down very far, because the average P.E. ratio is 10.)

Wellington touted EXPE, which gave Joe Terranova a chance to say that it's not highly exposed to the Middle East. (As well as saying that the JOET bought EXPE under $100.) Who knew. A value stock with "momentum."

Wellington also touted URI.

Josh Brown bought IOT as "potentially, um, a future giant (snicker) in its space." He said it's in "prime position to really be the internet of things play."

Brown also had to trim 10% of his UBER stake. (This writer is long UBER.)

Josh conceded how PYPL got "hammered" since the pandemic eased but "most of that is now in the stock."

Joe predicted January will be about "rotating," from the "crowded to the neglected," with the latter being small caps. But Joe kept cautioning that the first couple months of 2024 may not dictate the rest of the year.

Joe also added gold. "Anytime gold dips, I will buy," Joe said.



Jim, Weiss agree!
ALK paid ‘too much’


Fairly late in Monday's (12/4) Halftime Report, Judge asked ALK long Jim Lebenthal about the ALK-HA announcement.

"I don't like this deal," Jim stated, saying Alaska is "paying too much," though he conceded Alaska "could've done a lot more damage than they're doing," which is a curious type of bright spot. (Actually it made us wonder ... what else could ALK have done ... make an offer for GM? ...)

Jim did say the market's selloff of ALK is "way overdone," which is generally what longs say about every stock that falls, and that the deal does open "intrinsic routes to Asia" to ALK.

Jim suggested the deal feels like "empire-building."

Sarat Sethi said it's yet another deal in the airline space, a sector that doesn't seem to be popular at the White House.

Steve Weiss said that based on HA stock, it looks like the deal will get done. But Weiss said that kind of premium for a "non-biotech company" is "too much."

Karen Finerman joked on Fast Money that "arb" rules include "No airline deals." Guy Adami suggested keeping a bullish eye on DAL at 38.



Yes, a lot of folks need $185 million to buy something


Judge opened Monday's (12/4) Halftime Report saying Zuck is selling and Bezos and some NVDA insiders recently did too and asked Liz Young in a manner that betrayed that he doesn't believe his own question in the slightest, "Is tech too toppy."

Liz actually suggested with a straight face, "Well maybe they had big purchases to make."

Steve Weiss said you have to "take notice" when they sell, but what Zuck is selling is a "pimple" and "really nothing," and he's got a "big foundation."

Jim Lebenthal said insider sales to most investors are an "ambiguous signal," while Jim said insider buying is a "clear positive signal," a common refrain on CNBC since the channel's inception.

Judge questioned why insider selling isn't given the same significance as buying. "We would frame it differently if this was insider buying," Judge insisted. Jim said there isn't any reason for buying stock other than being bullish on the company.

Stephanie Link dialed in on what seemed like a 1970s AT&T landline and said Zuck's sale is no big deal but it's "prudent to take profits" in META.

Jim touted the PEG ratio of NVDA. "I think it is cheap," Jim concluded.

Later On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said of NVDA, "I don't think the valuation's crazy."



Still nothing on mighty MRNA


Sarat Sethi on Monday's (12/4) Halftime Report said he's "surprised" that UBER is up 5% on the S&P news given that the news seemed kind of already priced into the stock.

Steve Weiss said he bought UBER shares Friday afternoon on the S&P news; he thought it was "fully discounted" in the stock but he didn't see any "downside" in buying.

Sarat talked up PEP, which was touted in Barron's (slow news day; Judge was reaching), and said "I know Weiss is gonna jump on me on this one." Sarat said earnings growth is "baked in" and it's a "dividend aristocrat."

Judge pointed out that Weiss had told the show's producers that "you're paying more for Pepsi than you are for Meta on slower growth." Weiss said PEP is a "quality company" but that META is cheaper.

Jim Lebenthal said "the momentum is clearly here" in NKE and you can "let this ride," though with the recent gains, he's not sure about adding more.

Sarat cited GM's buyback, dividend and how it's "slowing back" EV initiatives and said there's "probably" been short-covering in the name. Jim said technicals support the stock now, and "momentum in the name right now is very strong." Jim also mentioned the buyback. Which means it was another day of touting GM based on financial engineering and not mentioning a single product.

"I've been adding to bitcoin," Weiss said, citing nothing but "momentum" in the trade. Karen Finerman on Fast Money affirmed she's long bitcoin, an "unusual" position for her investment style.

Our expectations for Judge's humor have been sliding for years, but he did have a good one during Final Trades in a "character" reference to Weiss/Dracula.

On Closing Bell, Rick Rieder told Judge that the country has to get a handle on debt.




Have to admit, Weiss is right, Jim apparently wasn’t listening to what he said


It didn't take long for Jim & Steve to tangle on Friday's (12/1) Halftime Report.

Judge opened the program harping on the 4.25% yield on the 10-year.

Steve Weiss said "this is one of those situations" where "mediocre" news is "good" news.

Weiss said the ISM was "a little disappointing," and the market was "keying" on the prospect of the Fed considering easing sooner than previously anticipated. Weiss said he's surprised there hasn't been more of a "digestion period," but he sees a "green light" into year-end.

Jim Lebenthal, also stationed at Post 9, said "the sun is shining and, uh, I totally disagree with Steve," and that got our attention, because we didn't think Weiss had said anything polarizing in his opening statement.

Jim said he doesn't think the 10-year is at 4.25% because the economy is weakening, rather, it's because people are employed and spending, and the market Friday wasn't climbing on a weak ISM report, that's "exactly wrong," it was climbing because consumers are "shifting to buying again," which is quite a pronouncement based on Friday morning's trading. (Which didn't reflect quite what Weiss said, but whatever.)

Weiss chuckled, "He wasn't listening to what I said." Weiss said the ISM number was an "example" and wasn't "the only reason for the market rallying," but it's because Powell "hasn't gotten more hawkish" and it's "seasonally" a typically strong time for the market.

Judge said Savita's new note says we're past "peak uncertainty on inflation and rates."

Shannon Saccocia, who had a very quiet show from the living room, mentioned hopes that the Fed will cut because they "can" not because they "need to."

Rob Sechan suggested "we're overextended" but could get "more overextended."

Sorta like John Rogers, Rob said it's "hard to believe" that tech will have "super" earnings drivers next year like it had going into this year. (Ah, last year at this time, lots of people didn't like tech because it was in a slump; this year, some people don't like tech because it's done so well.)

Judge again — briefly — got the echo effect talking to Rob, but producers got it cleared up almost immediately.

Brian Belski at one point said it's a "tough day" for Weiss but that Judge was being "very righteous and nice" to Weiss.



Jim says tech won’t come down but rest of market will rally up to it


Early on Friday's (12/1) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal made a curious comment that Judge didn't even notice.

Jim claimed that there's evidence of "very strong reason for this rally to broaden, uh, and the rest of the market to catch up with where tech is without having tech come down."

Think about that for a moment.

The rest of the market is going to "catch up" with tech.

That's close to what John Rogers told Judge on Wednesday.

But Jim didn't make the mean reversion argument of Rogers, rather, Jim said tech won't have to come down.

That sounds kind of ... too good to be true ... can't lose in this market ... that "value" investors are going to surge forward, while those hanging onto tech are going to do OK.

Steve Weiss didn't really opine on that possibility but did say that growth remains in tech, but rallies "tend to broaden out," though he doesn't know if this one will.

Judge re-aired Brad Gerstner's comments a day ago on John Rogers/tech. Weiss said Brad and John have "different strategies."

Jim said this is a "great debate" and that Brad is "very wise," but Brad "left out" valuation (snicker), and "I know people, when I say that, some people will say, 'Yeah, valuation doesn't matter.'" Jim said it does matter in that non-tech companies have been "outearning" and "outperforming."



Jim hasn’t mentioned a single GM product and still won’t provide a catalyst for the stock (aside from the usual, ‘it’s too cheap’)


It seems like it's sorta been GM Week on the Halftime Report, as Jim "All In" Lebenthal on Friday (12/1) was talking up the stock again, stating "share buybacks matter at exactly this point in time."

Steve Weiss wondered "is now the wrong time to start a buyback, a massive buyback, when you don't know, if the economy is going to go into recession or not."

"I hear you," Jim told Weiss.

Weiss said it's not only GM doing buybacks, "the major tech companies have all been buying ... so you can't buy based on that story." And with GM, it's not "organic growth," it's "financial engineering," Weiss asserted.

"Sorry, that's just not right," Jim responded.

"Of course it's right," Weiss said.

"It's not 'of course,' it's 'of course' you're wrong," Jim said.

Jim repeated his stat from earlier this week that GM over the last decade averaged 6½ billion (correctly said "billion" this time, not "million") in earnings and now is up to 9½ billion. Jim said buybacks may not always be a good thing, but GM has "too much cash" and "there's only so much they can do with it," (an interesting argument; couldn't they buy AAPL shares like Buffett does?) and you can "extend" that to CLF and WYNN.

"You still have to go to where the money's gonna go," Weiss said, and he said "the money's not going to Cleveland-Cliffs," he said that company announced a buyback a while ago and the stock is still "substantially" below its highs. Weiss said GM still has "major financial commitments to EVs."



Whatever happened to the iPad (a/k/a Remember when Toni Sacconaghi argued that AAPL needed to be a subscription service, like doing Rent-a-Center for your iPads instead of buying them)


Rob Sechan, who had a fairly quiet show (almost as quiet as Shannon Saccocia) on Friday's (12/1) Halftime Report, sold SWKS in a move to reduce "economic sensitivity" names and trim some tech overweight.

Rob also sold UPS. Rob cited the "slowing economic environment" and "elevated costs." But Rob slightly ran afoul of Judge when he explained how he bought CMA to get overweight the financials.

Judge wondered how Rob can make the case for CMA if he's concerned about the economy. Rob said it's partly because "yields are coming in," and look at the price of CMA, you can't buy stocks in a "vacuum."

Rob also sold ABBV, a "weaker performer" in the pharma space.

Rob also curiously bought more BABA, "an underrated grower at a reasonable price" and a "bit of a turnaround story." That's what Steve Weiss thought earlier this year.

Meanwhile, Jim Lebenthal said Baird's $300 target for BA is "very feasible" if there's "no operational mishaps." (Wonder how anyone can possibly know if there's another Boeing operational mishap on the way.) Jim started to mention David Calhoun, prompting Weiss to talk about Calhoun being chairman; Judge said "I don't wanna debate that anymore, anyway," even though Judge is the one who extended the conversation.




When’s Judge going to update us on the indoor golf league standings?


Late into Friday's (12/1) Halftime Report, Judge asked Jim Lebenthal about reports of Apple and Paramount "bundling" (as opposed to "bungling") their streaming services.

"Obviously this is good news," Jim stated, before adding, "The market is coming around to the fact that things were not as dire as they thought at Paramount."

But Judge said the stock's been a "disaster" in 2023.

Brian Belski joined the show remotely; among his new buys are DIS and regional banks, saying he was "funding some of that" by selling NFLX that he bought when it was, of course, a lot lower.

Judge asked Belski why he bought DIS. "I still think Bob is gonna get this thing right," Belski said, predicting Iger creates "some sort of a scarcity proposal" (snicker) and has talked about "cutting content" (that's an interesting approach for a streaming company).

(So basically, Wall Street has written off DIS growth and just wants it to spend no money.)

Judge said UBER got a Call of the Day, from BTIG with a $70 target. (This writer is long UBER.) Steve Weiss said he bought more Thursday. Weiss said the P.E. isn't cheap but it's "cheap on the growth." (Which is another way of saying, any stock, no matter the P.E., might do better or worse than what the P.E. supposedly indicates.)

(Late in the day, Steve Kovach reported that UBER was added to the S&P 500.)

Judge noted DIS reinstated its dividend, which happened late Thursday.

Mike Santoli either didn't have a mike, or his mike wasn't working, so it sounded like he was talking in a cavern.



3 is generally more than 2


In the 4th minute of Thursday's (11/30) Halftime Report, Judge reported that the DIS-Peltz ... um ... battle ... has gotten "quite spicy" (snicker) in that Judge was told "from a source familiar" that Peltz will push for 2, maybe 3 seats on the board, including one for himself and is "very unhappy" with DIS' share price performance this year. (Maybe it should do what GM did.)

Jenny Harrington claimed the DIS story has "echoes" to Brad Gerstner and META last year. Jenny asserted that Nelson's already had an "impact," because of disclosures and a 25-page (snicker) explanation on earnings, history and strategy. Jenny said we may look back on this as a "pivotal time."

Jenny said she noticed Josh Brown was "twitching" as she spoke. Josh questioned whether DIS' problems are about "expenses" (like META). Jenny said, "To some degree they are."

Judge said Peltz previously wanted cost-cutting and "got it ... now maybe he wants something to happen with the people who are doing the cost-cutting."

Jenny said Iger "screwed up the succession plan before, and that's why he's back." (Actually, he didn't screw it up; he wanted someone else as the frontman for the streaming exercise.)

Jim Lebenthal said "the end game here is pretty obvious, that he gets his seats on the board," and Jim wishes we "didn't have to go through the movie"; he wishes this was a "trailer" and not a "2-hour movie."

Judge said, "This is the sequel!" And we'll see if the sequel is "better than the original." (Well, hmmmm ... Godfather, yes. Rocky? Maybe, tough call. ... All others? ...)

Josh Brown wondered if Iger has a "chess move" involving ESPN, perhaps selling "a big stake" of it to AMZN or AAPL.

Kevin Simpson said reinstating the dividend would put DIS back in his shop's "queue," and they'd buy it.

Judge concluded the DIS discussion by reemphasizing his scoop on Peltz's board push. "Could be, um, more than 2. It could be 3."



Brad (sorta) vs. John Rogers (though John didn’t get a chance to respond)


Judge on Thursday's (11/30) Halftime Report revealed that a day ago, he was at CNBC's CFO Council in D.C. (and thus not hosting Halftime), and he played a clip of John Rogers saying at that event, as John always does, that "the top of growth stocks is coming again" and small cap value will play catch-up.

Rogers even predicted growth having a "very difficult time" heading into next year.

That clip came just before Brad Gerstner joined the show at the 13th minute and first joked that Nelson should recruit Elon for the DIS board. Judge started to recap Musk-Iger from the Dealbook conference a day ago, only to have Brad cut in, "Let's talk about John Rogers."

"On this issue, he's dead wrong," Brad said. Brad pointed out 10-year averages for tech (the proxy for growth, apparently) compounding at 16% and non-tech at 6%. Brad said 2023's tech gains are a mean reversion from the "parabolic" rate rise in 2022 that stung growth, and now, "We're just back on the trend line," so it's not like 2023 will be a giveback, according to Brad.

Brad said 20 years ago, tech was 5½% of global GDP. He said today it's 15%. He asked the panel, in 10 years, "will tech be more than 15% of global GDP."

Josh Brown asked Brad about Alphabet (this writer is long GOOGL), noting Josh liked it early in the year and Brad didn't. Brad said his "fundamental position" is this: "Search is going to be replaced by agent-led information discovery. I see it every day." Brad continued that "all I'm saying" is that even if Google remains the leader in finding info, "they will not have as much share of the pool of profits as they have in search."

Judge asked Brad about SNOW (Zzzzzzz). Brad said there was a "pull-forward of a massive amount of demand in 2021."

(Judge didn't ask Brad about The Board Challenge, not a surprise, given that this site was the only one keeping tabs on the subject long after Brad announced its lofty goals and Judge lost interest.)

Jenny Harrington asked Brad about one of her recent favorite subjects, how the run in UBER has to be over because its ... P.E. ratio has gotten higher. (This writer is long UBER.) Jenny of course mentioned buying UBER at 22. "Congrats on buying it at 22 bucks," Brad started, suggesting the best way to play a good investment is to do nothing. But Brad said he can't blame Jenny for trimming "because it's not gonna double over the course of the next year."



Jenny not impressed by quality of AVGO annual report


Judge opened Thursday's (11/30) Halftime Report talking about PMI and suggested how it's "got people talking about Goldilocks again."

Josh Brown rattled off numerous stats and said it's "Goldilocks-esque" before trumpeting the great year of CRM.

Jim Lebenthal said it hasn't been a great year for a lot of stocks but now we're seeing a "broadening of the rally." Jim said he doesn't see 4 rate cuts next year, "maybe 2."

Meanwhile, Kevin Simpson bought more AVGO because his shop's AAPL position got called away. He also bought AEM. Judge said he doesn't think the show ever talks about AVGO having a dividend.

Jenny Harrington complained of AVGO, "I've never read an annual report that is that light." (We're thinking that comment is probably not literally true.)

Josh cut off Jenny in the 52nd minute to read Judge's intro to the commercial. Jim had a quiet show; his Final Trade was GM. (And if any viewers ask Jim why the stock is below its 2010 IPO, Jim will say, WHAT DO YOU WANT ME TO SAY????????)

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman opined, "I just don't know that the market is gonna care about anything but rates."

Karen also said the P.E. of ULTA is lower than it's been in a "very long time." She thinks the selloff had been "way, way overdone."

Missy Lee suggested the TSLA Cybertruck seems like it "has sort of a Cormac McCarthy, sort of 'The Road,' apocalyptic nature to it."




Given the buyback and dividend, sounds like UAW got hosed (a/k/a cheering ‘financial engineering’)


Right after the A Block on Wednesday's (11/29) Halftime Report, for the 2nd day in a row, GM was the topic, and guest host Frank Holland even remotely brought in Jim Lebenthal, who wasn't on the day's panel.

Jim said he "kinda earned" the chance to be on "after the beatdown from Scott and Josh yesterday" (actually it was more Stephanie than Josh) and wondered, "By the way, why isn't Scott calling in, I feel like he should after yesterday, but I'll take that up with the Judge separately."

Jim said there was "really good news" from GM, which has an "awful lot of cash flow generation" and is able to buy back 25% of the shares at current price. Jim said GM is "stepping back" on EVs and the Cruise rollout. He said management isn't "giving up" on those divisions but recognizing the "big money drain" from them.

Addressing Adam Jonas' R&D spending concerns (see yesterday), Jim said GM's average net income for the last decade was "6 and a half million (sic meant billion) (we think)" and for the last 3 years, "those numbers are now well over 9 billion. So the R&D spending is paying off."

"And look at that price to earnings ratio! Below 5? You gotta be kidding me," Jim said. Neither Frank Holland nor Joe Terranova bothered to ask Jim to demonstrate why that P.E. ratio is an appealing thing.

Frank pointed out GM is boosting the dividend. Jim said the strike resolution was "positive for everybody." (Jim didn't address whether Joe Biden was trumpeting buybacks during the afternoon he spent on the picket line.)

Joe bluntly told Jim, "I call this financial engineering. And it's great. It, it got the stock to move higher." But, Joe wondered, "what comes next for the company; what's the next catalyst," because Joe had been hearing for years about the "pivot" to EVs, but demand seems to be "waning" (or never actually there, unless we're talking Tesla).

Jim said that's a "good question" and that the "pivot" is back to where the money's coming from, which is internal combustion.

Jim said "we've been trained" to regard "financial engineering" as a "pejorative," though he doesn't think Joe is using it that way and Jim sees it as "necessary"; "this stock is just too cheap."



Karen: ‘Optics’ of GM’s buyback/dividend announcement are questionable


Karen Finerman on Wednesday's (11/29) 5 p.m. Fast Money mentioned GM having just experienced this "big labor thing," and now, the fact GM is saying "it's not that big of a deal" and will be made up "in cost cuts" was "sort of surprising" to Karen, "as a matter of optics."

Host Missy Lee noted GM said the labor issue is adding $500 to the price of new cars and said it's like, "This whole thing was no big deal."

Karen noted Mary Barra's tenure and said "it's been a rough 10 years," not just for Mary but for F.

But Karen acknowledged it's "very, very accretive" to buy so much stock back.

Steve Grasso suggested the buyback is what the UAW is "totally against." Steve said it's a "terrible setup, framing for the company."

But Tim Seymour cheered the move, calling it a "great message" and stating "investors love the clarity."

Guy Adami called the GM moves a "giant slap in the face for the UAW." Guy said the gain in the stock only brings it back to where it was "a month or so ago." But he thinks there's a "floor" in the shares now.

Back on Halftime, Sarat Sethi, like Jim Lebenthal a GM long, made some interesting comments on GM, saying the company is "pushing off what some of the high capex is gonna be" and there's "legroom" for 4 years "because you've got wages under control" (we're sure Shawn will like that).

Sarat said owning GM will be more like a 1- or 2-year investment, not a 5-year investment. Sarat also said "at the end of the day."

Sarat made GM his Final Trade, claiming there's a "catalyst" without specifying.

And if only, if only, people on CBNC talked about GM's products about 1/10th as much as they talk about its P.E. ratio.



Peter King says David Tepper’s Panthers are the NFL’s ‘clown show’


"Yields are the story," Joe Terranova declared at the top of Wednesday's (11/29) Halftime Report. "However," Joe added, Wednesday's market seems "a little bit overbought and a little bit tired" and "we need to broaden out the rally beyond just the Magnificent 7" if December is going to be like November.

Steve Liesman said Tom Barkin in a CNBC exclusive threw "some cold water" on the "optimistic outlook" for rate cuts. Steve said the market is giving a 44% chance of a cut in March.

Guest host Frank Holland said Bill Ackman is now touting a cut in Q1.

Steve Weiss said the Fed will never announce in advance when the rate cuts are coming; "They're always gonna say 'We're data-dependent.'"

Weiss said Ackman on rates "called the top just about perfectly." But, "I think he'll be early in a first-quarter rate cut."

"There's a race going on," Weiss said, explaining it's about whether the economy can "stay at the level it's at before rates really start to hit them." (snicker) (That's the whole lag effect argument again.)

Frank said Jamie Dimon sees higher odds of a recession than other people do.

Joe said if it looks like there's another hike coming, or even a cut, then the markets need a "communication meeting" from the Fed, which shouldn't lay a "surprise" on the markets.

Weiss shrugged that the market has "ignored" Fed messaging about how rates could be "higher for longer."

"There's inconsistency in the messaging!" Joe responded. "There always is," Weiss shrugged. Sarat Sethi said Joe's point is "spot-on."

Judge was off and Frank, like Judge and Weiss, said nothing about David Tepper's stewardship of the Carolina Panthers; NFL writer Peter King made his feelings known Tuesday on Power Lunch.




Joe invokes Charlie Munger for justifying paying the CRWD multiple (a/k/a who is that ‘somebody else’ Sarat knows)


Dom Chu on Wednesday's (11/29) Halftime reported on CI and HUM talks. Steve Weiss said he sold part of his HUM "trading position" while Chu spoke; "Dom just made my day."

Kari Firestone said "we own United Health" and admitted it's been "underperforming" because of diet-drug concerns, though that's a "very small part of their business, obviously."

Kari said the CI-HUM report is not "great" for UNH but that there are "multiple players" in the market already and that a CI-HUM merger would not cut costs but "probably price higher."

Weiss told guest host Frank Holland he's been traveling for a week and a half, and "I only came back because I knew you were hosting the show instead of Scott," a good line. In any case, Weiss bought QQQ. "It's not a big position," Weiss said.

Joe Terranova said CRWD had an "absolutely fantastic response" to the quarter. Joe said there was a chance to buy it in the low 100s, "obviously a great entry point." (A great trade for anyone with a ... time machine.) (Talk about momentum.)

Frank asked Joe about the 79-times-forward-earnings valuation for CRWD. Joe told Frank, "I think you know me well enough to know that I never look at valuation as the North Star in terms of where I believe price is ultimately going."

Joe said people can say CRWD is "richly valued," but it's a "really good business," and citing Charlie Munger, Joe said, "You wanna pay a premium for a really good business."

Sarat Sethi said "I respect what Joe's doing" with a momentum strategy.

Sarat said, "Joe will tell you when he's wrong, too, so it's not like he's sitting there saying 'I'm right all the time,' unlike somebody else we know."

Joe said he won't speak as "glowingly" about INTU as CRWD.



Weiss isn’t saying anything about MRNA, which was a 2023 Stock Summit pick and a name he was touting in 2021 when it was in the $400s


Guest host Frank Holland on Wednesday's (11/29) Halftime Report brought up Piper's overweight of SCHW.

Kari Firestone's argument for SCHW started with "The stock is cheap," though it's had a "terrible year." Kari said "cash sorting" may be coming to an end if rates are falling, and she said there are "synergies" with the Ameritrade deal from a while back.

Frank said the note touted cash inflows in recent Decembers and a May rate cut; Kari cautioned that it'll be tough to beat November.

Joe Terranova blurted, "They said the premise is that there has to be a cut in May?!?" Frank said it's a "key part of the thesis."

Joe said there's a "tremendous amount of cash sitting on the sidelines." Frank wondered why Joe was "incredulous" about a May cut forecast given that Ackman sees a cut in Q1. Joe questioned a recommendation to buy an "individual equity name based on what the Federal Reserve might do in May."

Meanwhile, Joe said when Paul Singer steps into a name as he's doing with PSX, you have to pay attention.

Steve Weiss bought FCX, saying he expects copper to "catch a bid." Sarat Sethi said copper demand increases every year and supply is "nonexistent."

Joe bought GLD and again said there's "confusion" among investors who believe inflationary times are best for gold based on "the '70s," but actually gold is best in a "disinflation trend."

Joe said what's "important" to watch for regarding FCX is the "aid" China is providing for the property sector. Weiss said that was his original rationale for buying but it didn't work; China has "major major issues."

Weiss bought more GS and said it's good riddance to Goldman's Apple deal.

Weiss isn't saying anything about MRNA these days; remember how in 2020 and 2021 he trumpeted the stock almost on every show? That was a fantastic call for the times — what wasn't so fantastic were Weiss' assertions in 2021 and even at the beginning of the year about how great the company is long term; according to this site's archive, on Aug. 9, 2021, Judge noted that Weiss "continued to recommend it" as the stock was in the $400s.



Guy Adami says Charlie and Warren would probably ‘wince’ if watching Fast Money (a/k/a Julia can’t pronounce Muir/Moore/Moyer)


We heard Julia Boorstin on Tuesday's (11/28) Halftime Report mention that David Muir was helming some sort of DIS event with Bob Iger. Now that's an interesting topic; this page should consider doing reviews of "World News Tonight" (don't get any ideas), which could include that reporters who are speaking to the whole TV audience have obviously been told "Say the word 'David' as often as possible," as in, "The hurricane David is going to hit landfall in 3 days David and expected to be Category 4, David. Back to you, David."

And then there's the constant thanking of reporters by the anchor, apparently just for doing their jobs. "Aaron Katersky, THANK YOU for standing in front of the building and telling us in 2 sentences what happened in the last 3 hours."

Meanwhile, Judge asked Josh Brown, "Why'd you buy PayPal."

Brown said it's "funny" that PYPL is "definitely" not a growth stock and "definitely" not a value stock either, rather, it reminds him of SHOP about a couple months ago, and SHOP has "literally (sic) launched into outer space."

Josh said SHOP indicates, "This is the buy now, pay later Christmas." Josh said Friday was "one of the great ecommerce days of all time."

Judge asked Josh for the "methodology" (snicker) about selling CHPT. "Tax loss," Brown said.

Shannon Saccocia sees "very few hurdles" over the remaining weeks of the year.

Jim Lebenthal said Shannon is "too cautious" but told her she's not "out of your mind" and stated, "Bulls like me generally acknowledge what the bearish case is," which Jim said are the "lag effects" (snicker) of Fed hiking.

Jim added, "For the bulls' thesis to work out, the Fed has to be done."

Steve Liesman said of the recent Fed commentary, "Waller said the quiet part out loud."

Stephanie Link talked about how AVGO and LRCX deserve their P.E. ratios.

Josh Brown once again went through the bull case for ZM, apparently because Aswath Damodaran blessed the stock on Judge's other show Monday.

Bill Baruch bought DPZ; there was a time, about a decade ago, when that stock went gangbusters, an early success at cellphone ordering. Hasn't been mentioned on Halftime in a long time.

At 5 p.m., during a Charlie Munger tribute, Guy Adami conceded that the TV show "Fast Money" probably "flew in the face of everything they believed in" and that Charlie and Warren, if watching it, would probably "wince." Dan Nathan says there are "investment styles for all sorts of people" and that he always learned something from comments from Buffett and Munger.



Jim unable to explain why GM is $5 below its IPO price from 13 years ago


Right after the A Block on Tuesday's (11/28) Halftime Report, Judge brought up Adam Jonas' call/musings on U.S. automaker relevance, which led to a little much-anticipated pressure on forever GM bull Jim Lebenthal.

Adam, according to Judge, says the "average" S&P 500 company spends the equivalent of its market cap in capex over 50 years, while GM and F spend it in 1.9 and 2.6 years, respectively.

"This cannot continue," Jonas asserts, according to Judge.

Jim said he agrees "with the premise" of the note, that it's a "make or break" year for GM and F. Going slightly off-topic, Jim said we have to see how the labor costs will "eat into" the "ton" (snicker) of profit at these companies, though he thinks it'll be "very simple" to raise car prices 1-2% to cover those costs.

Getting back to what Jonas was saying, Jim said management R&D decisions shouldn't be based on market cap, a fair point, except it doesn't actually address the issue Jonas flagged.

Stephanie Link outdid Judge here, bluntly asking Jim for a "catalyst" to get people to buy the stocks, noting Jim has made a "compelling argument" for the past year while the stocks just go down. Jim admitted that there's "nothin' in the next month" that will be a catalyst for GM shares but he mentioned GM analyst day (Zzzzzzzzz) in a couple weeks.

Judge then asked Jim an emailed question from a "loyal viewer ... who emails me a lot" (note: It's not this site) and wonders Jim's thoughts on GM being $5 below the 2010 IPO price of $33.

"My comment is, That sucks," Jim said, for some reason wondering, "What comment do you want me to make to that?," as if it's not a relevant statistic.

Judge said the question "underscores" the notion that Jim's "bullish fundamental outlook" hasn't worked, and thus is it "suspect."

Jim insisted GM is "very compelling value."

Josh Brown curiously wondered how GM will do after another recession, even if not until 2025, because U.S. automakers historically always "emerge weaker" after every recession.



The fellow on ETF Edge who talked about how people who are great at some things are actually bad at other things might’ve been talking about Tepper Wall Street/Tepper pro football (a/k/a Stuff That Judge Doesn’t Think is News)


Joe Terranova on Monday's (11/27) Halftime Report said Monday's trading was keeping up with the "overall trend" of November, and it seems like the July high of 4,607 is the stock market "target."

And that was the most useful bit of commentary to surface during the program.

Jason Snipe said he thinks there's "quite a bit left" in the market rally, though it's "slightly overbought in the very-very near term."

Brian Belski said it's "The Jackie Moon Market" and advised, "own everything" and "equal weight everything."

Belski said that he said "14 months ago" that "October of 2022 is the start of the bull market." Judge countered that it's been a market that "did next to nothing other than 7 stocks!" Belski reponded by mentioning housing and airlines for some reason and said "there are other names" besides the Magnificent 7.

Joe said "tax loss harvesting" about 15 times (actually not quite that many) when arguing that we might see in January the "same pattern" as this past January.

Joe said he thinks the valuation argument on ODFL is "completely wrong" and that it should have a premium. Stephanie Link insisted that 36 times forward is "pretty rich."

Jason Snipe said NVDA is up 240% year to date, which means "some retracement" is possible. Joe joked that it'll pause "maybe for a couple of days."

Discussing Shein on the 5 p.m. Fast Money, guest host Sara Eisen said, "I think that consumers like $5 skirts."

Chris Harvey said he doesn't see how the market gets to 5,000.

Dan Nathan told Sara about the Formula One production (see our home page), "Killer, killer doc that you did."

Guy Adami mentioned Kensho. That was a good one. Remember Kensho?

Reports on Monday said that David Tepper will address reporters about the state of the Carolina Panthers football team on Tuesday; we'll see if Judge bothers to cover it on Halftime.




The metrics that get Jim rankled


CNBC's Chipster Kristina Partsinevelos, the star guest of Wednesday's (11/22) Halftime Report guest-hosted by Frank Holland, said NVDA had a "big beat" but "muted stock reaction."

Kristina explained that Nvidia's CFO said the company doesn't have "good visibility" about the "magnitude" of China headwinds. Kristina also said analysts question the "sustainability of demand" once the backlog is reduced but that Jensen Huang "wouldn't have any of it" on the call and cited a "host of new products ramping up."

Joe Terranova parsed about owning NVDA equally weighted or market cap weighted before saying it should be a "core holding" for the "better part of the next several years." Jim Lebenthal shrugged that NVDA was dipping Wednesday only because "people got a little exhausted."

Rob Sechan tried to tell Jim that NVDA is "trading at 14 times next year's sales," sparking a curious exchange.

"Don't give me sales!" Jim cut in.

Rob insisted that, "Few companies have reached that. Tesla was one of them. And after they reached that point, they had a 70% drawdown the following year."

"Because it had price to earnings of 75!" Jim bellowed, adding, "And I love you. But anytime anybody says price to sales to me, like my, half of my head goes into orbit around Venus."

Frank noted that NVDA seemed to be down not on earnings but something we "already knew" going in, the China restrictions. Kristina suggested "we didn't know the severity of it." Kristina went on to say, "It's not often you see a stock where it hits an all-time high and the P.E. ratio actually comes down."

Joe said the "variable" with China is going to be there for a while for NVDA.




Perhaps they could do roasts on days other than right before Thanksgiving


Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (11/22) Halftime Report pronounced this a "good week" in the stock market driven by technicals. Joe said 4,600 seems like the "destination."

Rob Sechan said there's "4 things (this page can't handle more than 3) that are gonna drive the market, at least through year-end."

Jim Lebenthal stated that he's apparently getting pressure from bears, telling guest host Frank Holland, "a lot of people I talk to want me to get worried about the situation." But Jim's "done" talking about the yield curve. Jim asserted that any slowdown "is likely to be short and sweet."

Joe made a good joke about trying to "stay awake" while Jim was talking after Jim suggested Joe was getting excited. Frank joked that "it's not a Comedy Central roast the day before Thanksgiving."

Frank said Tom Lee is "out with a note" predicting a year-end rally, possibly starting next week. (If it doesn't start next week, there's not a whole lot of time for it to get going, unless it already started Nov. 1.)




Shannon’s already got the Christmas tree decked out before Thanksgiving


Jim Lebenthal on Wednesday's (11/22) Halftime Report said DE's share price has "stunk" and that the earnings brought a "guidance reduction."

Nevertheless, Jim said it's a "classic case of rip the Band-aid off" and advised that if you don't own it, "you're supposed to buy it here."

Discussing the oil market, guest host Frank Holland said "repooting," correcting to "reporting." Joe Terranova noted that energy stocks are down less than the spot price of crude. Jim said the SPR is "very, very low."

Rob Sechan suggested "I think there's a lot of support going into year-end for gold." Joe asserted that "gold actually works best in a deflationary environment," at least "post-1980." (Honestly, there's a ton of debate over that kind of assertion, but Frank never pursued and given that it's right before a holiday, maybe that's fine.)

Frank said ADSK got a Piper Sandler downgrade. Joe said it had "putrid" guidance. Frank said Joe owns it; Joe said "we'll see" in January. The stock doesn't appear by Joe's name on the Halftime Report Investment Committee Disclosures page, so apparently Joe doesn't own it personally, but in the JOET, which of course will do the ever-popular rebalancing in January. (Frank should make that clear.)

Joe said CRWD is one of his "favorite positions."

Rob's Final Trade was AVGO, which he said "trades cheap." And Joe said nothing about whether the P.E. ratio indicates the direction that AVGO shares will move.



Amy Raskin brings up the ‘b’ word


On Tuesday's (11/21) Halftime Report, most of which involved Josh Brown touting megacap tech, Jim Lebenthal said he bought NVDA over the summer in 2 tranches paying "about a $440 average price target."

Jim touted NVDA's forward multiple going from 60 in May to 29. And we figured, Ah, here's where Judge asks Jim if higher multiples actually predict stronger stock performance. Ah, Judge never asked. (Neither did supposed P.E. skeptic Joe, who wasn't on the panel but beamed in later to talk about Burlington Coat Factory for some reason from his pandemic-looking home office room.)

In the day's most stark commentary, regarding these tech giants, Amy Raskin stated that we're in the "early stages or if not mid-stages of a bubble," but she does think it "can continue to go."

Joe Terranova, from home pandemic-era office, said BURL was experiencing a "relief rally." Joe said that if you're "trading the name," short interest is high, and Joe sees "further upside ahead."

Stephanie Link suggested KSS belongs in a "run-down department store-almost kinda concept."

Stephanie Link bragged about how much better PWR has been vs. DE in the last week and a half.

Josh Brown said he's staying with ZM and "didn't understand the early morning selling."

Judge wished a Happy Thanksgiving to Al Michaels. Jim spoke about how NFL helps streamers, including Jim's favorite, PARA.




More people apparently are going to switch to search that puts dot-dot-dot on the screen instead of giving you the answer immediately (a/k/a Josh got a buzz)


The developments in the AI space on Monday (11/20) were, quite frankly, putting people to sleep at CNBCfix HQ ... until Josh Brown and Jenny Harrington tangled in an interesting little donnybrook on the Halftime Report.

First, Judge brought up "all this drama at OpenAI" and wondered "what's it worth now" given all the "chaos" and "turmoil."

Judge said Dan Ives called it a "World Series of Poker move for the ages." Joe Terranova questioned if there's a "derivative effect on Alphabet." Judge said he's seen "suggestions" that the "turmoil at OpenAI" gives GOOGL and META and others a chance to "catch up."

Jenny Harrington asserted that "competition is heating up" in AI software, which prompted audible disagreement from Josh Brown, who wasn't at Post 9.

"Everybody wants a piece of it," Jenny insisted, adding, "No one's making any money besides Nvidia, no one's making any money off of AI right now" and that Dan Ives only raised his MSFT target to 425, "13% upside from here."

Given a chance, Josh said that what Jenny was saying was just "like backing into a justification for not owning Nvidia."

"No it wasn't!" Jenny protested.

"Yes it was," Brown continued, as Jenny scoffed. (We picked the photo above not because it's an unusual expression by Jenny but only to show that Jenny rolled her eyes at Josh's comment on TV.) "And by the way, that argument, that competition is coming, has- has been the same argument for a thousand percentage points in Nvidia."

Josh said "Microsoft did the right thing by its shareholders" to keep Sam Altman "in house." He said "there's room" for others such as GOOGL and AMZN, "a little bit of something for everyone," while "The losers are the 4 board members at OpenAI."

Jenny said she would make "one correction on what Josh said," which was, "No, Josh, it's not an excuse on why I don't like- own Nvidia. The reason I do that is because it's a disciplined portfolio that has a 5% or better free cash flow yield mandate. So, I'd love to own it, but I can't."

Jenny stressed that AI is "just not profitable right now" and suggested the spending might be like the "Metaverse" and "nobody knows how much money can actually be made off of it."

Josh asserted, "But the pie is growing."

"Maybe, Josh," Jenny said.

"What do you mean, 'maybe,'" Josh said.

"Maybe. The pie's growing, but we don't know how much needs to be spent ... there's too much ambiguity for anyone to say, 'OK, Microsoft's gonna make $100 billion off of this, therefore the share price should be X amount more.'"

Joe said it's a situation "where all can be winners" (snicker).

Josh drew a contrast between posing a question in Google and getting a "bread crumb trail" (sic, not to be confused with "breadth thrust") to an answer and how ChatGPT-enabled Bing "just gives us the answer. No links." Josh said GPT intentionally gives some kind of delay pause as though it's thinking about the answer it could already provide in a "nanosecond."

Jenny offered that "I think that tech is going to be the story" but not necessarily the "highest returns."

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said the Microsoft hire seems "kind of a big deal" and questioned how OpenAI has a 4-person board.

Dan Nathan on Fast Money said "at some point, next year," MSFT market cap will overtake AAPL, "and they'll never look back."

At the top of the show, Josh said that with the Nasdaq up 40-some-odd% this year, it's "career risk if you're not part of this." Liz "Generally Gloomy" Young actually said that with the pressures of August-October lifting in the last couple weeks, "it makes sense that there's a run here" and "still room" for the rally to go.



Surprised Joe didn’t question Jenny’s implication that P.E. ratio will guide UBER stock direction


Josh Brown on Monday's (11/20) Halftime Report said UBER is still his favorite stock and predicted S&P 500 inclusion. (This writer is long UBER.)

Judge asked Jenny Harrington if she made a "mistake" trimming UBER in September. "No I don't think so," Jenny said (even though it obviously was), first rattling off its free cash flow growth only to declare, "The problem is, the stock's up 143% since we bought it. Which means that the free cash flow yield is now down to 4.1%" Jenny said you have to account for the valuation, and also, the S&P inclusion may already be priced in.

Josh conceded that UBER has gotten "more expensive" but said it's gotten a "re-rating" for its "gigantic platform"; Josh also cited "by the way" UBER's "compound revenue growth rate" of over 30%. Jenny questioned if the re-rating already occurred.

Joe Terranova said COST has been in the JOET since inception.

Joe said he will "candidly admit" he's found it hard to trade ULTA.

Josh stressed ZM (snicker) trading at "14 times" (twice) and said there's "almost no believers in this name," so it could rise on an earnings beat. Jenny predicted an "OK quarter" from KSS.



Judge ‘confused’ about JOET criteria; Joe’s answer was a little wobbly (as he seems to maybe be backpedaling on his dismissal of P.E. ratio)


One of the subjects on Friday's (11/17) Halftime Report was the WDC purchase by Bill Baruch, who was part of the Post 9 panel Friday.

Apparently wondering why this name isn't in the JOET, Judge told Joe Terranova that "the momentum is obviously there," saying the stock is up "almost 48% year to date."

Joe said that if you go back to 2021, WDC has been "literally cut in half." (Actually more than halved if you're talking June 2021 to May 2023, but it depends on precisely when you're measuring.)

Judge asked the difference between WDC and AMAT. Joe mentioned a "subpoena" revealed by AMAT and said "the earnings were fine."

So Judge said to Joe, "Explain to me once again, because I'm, I find myself confused and if I'm confused I just wonder if maybe I'm not the only one. Um, by what metric do you define something as being 'of quality.'"

(And we thought for a second, uh oh, Joe might claim this is proprietary information.)

"Return on equity. Debt to equity. And, 36-month annualized sales growth," Joe said, which sounds ... OK. "And then within the 36 months you could measure the last 4 quarters and then you could measure the last 8 quarters." Hmmmm. Sounds like strings attached.

Then things got even more interesting. Joe made a comment about "more of a reasonable valuation" before reaffirming something he told Steve Weiss recently, "Valuation is not a predictor of where a stock price is gonna go."

But then Joe watered down that argument by explaining that "quality" would mean "more of a reasonable valuation that reflects a better balance sheet."

So valuation doesn't predict stock direction ... but indicates something about a balance sheet.

Hmmmmm.



Judge says current Fed-speak doesn’t mean ‘anything’


As panelists on Friday's (11/17) Halftime Report assessed how well the stock market will do by year-end, Judge was suggesting people tune out the noise from central bank voices.

"I don't think any of this Fed-speak, with all due respect to all of the speakers ... I don't think it means anything," Judge stated.

Joe Terranova said "I think markets are in consolidation range right now" and that it's a "very quiet market" on Friday, "and generally, uh, history will tell me you don't sell a quiet market," as there's "more room to the upside."

Joe said the chase in stocks seems to be led by the Russell playing catch-up.

Judge showed his Wednesday Closing Bell clip of Jeremy Siegel (who hasn't been on Halftime in ages) (Krinsky hasn't really been either) saying that into year-end, we could get "maybe even 10%" from here.

Judge declared that "no one" on the Fed is going to declare "we're done," but that "to a person," they are saying the same thing about being patient.

Joe said he didn't want to sound "disrespectful" (snicker) to the Fed because "they should be applauded for their public service," but "I'm going to watch the bond market" and it doesn't seem like there's any "urgency" that the "dovish narrative is, is incorrect."

"The bearish argument is you never get the cuts," Joe told Judge. Judge said, "I thought you were gonna say the bearish argument is they have to cut when, when the market expects them to because the economy is gonna go into the tank," when Judge might suggest that the "craziest scenario" is that the Fed simply cuts "because it can," because inflation falls.

Judge said Michael Hartnett is saying, "Fade above 4,550." Bill Baruch said, "At the end of the day (twice he said that), I do think the data continues to slow. The real question is the consumer. ... Right now, I'm not seeing anything that says we're gonna have a pullback."

Joe said it's "simple," if the S&P holds 4,470, there's a "very strong probability" of challenging the July highs.



Bill rationalizes being long oil stocks, getting out of CRM


Judge on Friday's (11/17) Halftime was suddenly more excited about NVDA's recent run than the Russell 2000 gain on Tuesday, pointing out NVDA's gain since Oct. 31. Bill Baruch said the risk in NVDA could be to the upside.

Joe Terranova though said "there's a lot of complexity" about the chip space and that even if NVDA has another "blowout" earnings, the stock may not go higher.

Judge asked Joe and Bill about oil's slump. Referring to the JOET, Judge told Joe, "You've got a lot of exposure here," as Joe had predicted a "make it or break it" quarter.

Joe said at the end of January, the JOET will make "some difficult, uh, decisions." Bill said he loaded up on on oil names in May, "and a lot of this stuff has done really well since May." Bill predicted oil names will do "fairly well." Joe mentioned refilling the SPR.

Bill said energy stocks are being marked to $50 crude.

Meanwhile, ADI got an upgrade; it's in the JOET. "You have to believe in the trough for analog," Joe said.

Bill Baruch said he sold CRM at the end of last year in a "tax-loss harvesting move" and that the cash went into NVDA and AAPL "and things like that" and that CRM in the last 6 months is only up about 6%.

Joe said recent bariatric concerns for ISRG have some "validity." Joe trumpeted EXPE not having a lot of Middle East exposure.

Joe said there's "strong momentum" in off-price retail and that ROST had a "very strong report." Shannon Saccocia said, "This is really an example of that trade down." Bill said he's been "very negative on the consumer" and avoided the consumer "like the plague" this year, but he's "kinda waking up" to the space with his recent buy of TGT, which he hung another $200 target on.

Joe said ROST has raised the bar for BURL, which will need a "whopper" of a report to have a big stock gain from here.

Joe said DE has been "challenging" and that only Steve Weiss (who wasn't on Friday's show) has done well in it; "he's traded that spectacularly" (snicker). Joe said DE is in a "perilous position." Bill Baruch said ag prices are "significantly lower" than in 2022 and said he likes CAT better and mentioned CAT and DE having a similar multiple "around a 12."

Joe said BBY is the "most fascinating" stock that Judge didn't mention and wondered if it gets a "Target reaction" or do we conclude it "got Amazoned."

"Thank you for bringing that up," Judge said.



Jim’s not going to believe for a moment that the CSCO selloff is justified


Jim Lebenthal wasn't on Thursday's (11/16) Halftime Report panel.

At least, he apparently wasn't scheduled to be. But Judge brought in Jim remotely to assess CSCO's stumble.

Before Jim started speaking ... yes, before he spoke, we hit pause ... we decided he was going to say 1) the CSCO report really wasn't that bad and 2) the market's getting it wrong and 3) if you have a long-term outlook, you'll do fine in this name.

So "All-in Jim" actually said "the guidance was reduced" for EPS "by about 4%" while the stock's down "11%-plus" (that's #2).

In a curious assessment of the selloff, Jim said that means the market either thinks the slowdown is greater than the company thinks, or it's just a "long slide down" for CSCO similar to INTC of 5 years ago.

But Jim thinks CSCO is "way too diversified" to be another INTC of 5 years ago. "I think this drawdown today is way overblown" (that's #2 again), Jim said, citing the last double-digit decline a year and a half ago and how much the stock rallied afterwards; "this is a buying opportunity (that's #3)."

"The Intel comparison, I don't know, that feels a little specious to me," Judge said, stating it seems more like macro concerns about CSCO. Jim said Judge made the point better than Jim did. But Jim brings up INTC because it was a "darling" prior to 2018. (Um, not sure about the darling pre-2018 part. Pre-2000, yes.)

Judge asked Josh Brown about the down day for PANW; Josh said "this is a tough business," some deals don't close right away, and "you've got a lot of immaturity amongst short-term traders," but the stock is "fine." Judge observed, "This has been like everybody's favorite stock."



Weiss calls market ‘OK’ for rest of year, if day-ta dependent


"There are never absolute decisions," Josh Brown philosophized at the top of Thursday's (11/17) Halftime Report; "it's always buy stocks or buy something else."

A lot of people like cash, but Brown said if we've had peak rates or are about to, then 5% money market funds could melt to 4½ or 4 or 3½, etc.

Steve Weiss said not everyone goes to bonds for better returns; some go there to "hide" including Weiss. Weiss said the market is "OK" through year-end, though it's "data-dependent" (he pronounced it "day-ta").

Bryn Talkington said "the Fed can be done" but what's not priced in is "higher for longer." Bryn said Jay Powell has been "crystal clear" that he wanted the door open a couple weeks ago when the protesters interrupted the speech wants 2% inflation. Bryn thinks money market funds will be "a little bit stickier than people think."

Judge said James Gorman finds 3% inflation "acceptable," and Judge asked Bill Baruch if we've got the all-clear. Bill said he thinks we're "close enough."

Josh shrugged off Judge's emphasis on all the Fed commentary, stating the market now isn't "parsing every speech given by every Fed-head," rather, it's a "classic chase for performance."

Josh said you can "stop" talking about the Magnificent 7 as there are "82 stocks" in the S&P up more than 20%.

Josh said he heard Lisa Cook's name "for the first time today."

Weiss mentioned sluggishness in CAT and DE as signs the market isn't "convinced" the economy's that great.

Weiss is still pointing to the "lagging effect of the tightening cycle" (snicker) (Zzzzzzzzzz) as a possible roadblock.



‘I do think they’re not going to invade Taiwan’


Judge asked Steve Weiss on Thursday's (11/16) Halftime Report about buying TSM.

Weiss mentioned Xi's visit and conceded though "you can't believe what he says" about hot war/cold war, "I do think they're not going to invade Taiwan."

Apparently as a trade on the smiles from San Francisco, Weiss said TSM has a lot of "very meaningful manufacturing facilities in China" and is "very cheap" and "somewhat derisked."

Bill Baruch bought more UBER, citing its "network" of 130 million users and that it's a "profitable company now," and he even mentioned NFLX in that conversation. Weiss said he added to UBER also. Josh Brown said UBER is his biggest single position, personally. (This writer is long UBER.)

Bill Baruch bought TGT and said it's had "finally a turn" and has potential to hit $200. But Bill sold MCD. Josh stated that it's "not gonna be an easy year" for SHAK or the other fast-food chains. Bryn Talkington said we're in a "new landscape" in which the consumer can get "really stretched" if there's any "hiccup" in unemployment.

Bryn said a bullish call on XBI "makes all the sense in the world."

Bill said we're in Year 2 of a bull market, or heading into it.

Weiss of course couldn't endorse biotech given his view of the economy (Zzzzzzzzz), "there are better places where you can put your money."

Josh said you can buy either the XBI or IBB; "they're great bounce candidates."

Bryn said RBLX has been in a rigid range of 30-40 and she sells calls "when it gets up to, close to 40." Josh Brown said the RBLX customer base is "very loyal" but it's "not a very well-run company."



Jim still thinks that the streaming business is anything but a quagmire (cont’d) (a/k/a Josh wanted to buy DIS in the ‘low 70s,’ not ‘below 70’)


Judge on Wednesday's (11/15) Halftime reported that ValueAct is reportedly taking a DIS stake, boosting the stock.

Jim Lebenthal asserted, "The name of the game here is streaming profitability" (snicker). Jim said he wouldn't even be surprised if that profitability is "a little accelerated."

Jim admitted, "We don't know what the long-term profitability of streaming is going to be," but then he added, "it's going to be positive."

(We wonder if Jim could share his forecasts of streaming businesses at CNBC.com and show what the subscription prices are going to be and what the ad revenues are going to be and what the costs are going to be.)

Jenny Harrington, who elsewhere in the program was actually knocking companies that had been cost-cutting their way to higher share prices, said "I agree with Jim" and said "the entire company" is basically trading on "just the parks." (That's a much different argument than claiming the streaming division is going to be a great success.)

Joe Terranova claimed Josh Brown (who wasn't on Wednesday's show) mentioned wanting to buy DIS "below 70," and according to Joe, that's not happening.

"The technicals look really good," Joe said. "You're not buyin' this in the 70s."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said ValueAct is a "very very long-term" investor that sees itself as a "partner" who doesn't want to get into "high-profile fights." Which makes ValueAct a "much better partner" than Peltz for Iger, who could "solve the problem" of disgruntled shareholders by telling them, "See I did put somebody new on the board." (So that's the problem Iger can solve, not the one about throwing gobs of money for years at the streaming division before it's sold to one of the Magnificent 7.)

Judge took note of Berkshire hanging onto its PARA stake and concluded "obviously," it's because they think it's a "takeout." Jim claimed the Berkshire people are seeing "there's a lot more value in the company" than the share price indicates, "and (of course) I agree." Jim said he's "never known" Berkshire to make an investment based on a takeout, so this would be a "rare case."

Judge later said a viewer said that Buffett played ActiVision for the arb opportunity. "I take comfort from that point of view," Jim said.



Goldman training sounds real difficult


Judge on Wednesday's (11/15) Halftime Report asked Jim Lebenthal about Berkshire selling GM. Jim suggested Warren Buffett saw the labor negotiations and decided he "doesn't want any part of it." But Jim said GM is "printing money." (Of course, GM always prints money, PARA is always undervalued, the economy is always underestimated ...)

Joe Terranova said Buffett is "probably a little regretful" that he sold CE.

Judge pointed out that they don't know if it's "he" or "they" making these sales at Berkshire.

Jenny Harrington said CSCO vs. SYY was "Goldman Training 101" to make sure people got the right trades. Jim said if "you're a 10-year investor," CSCO will pay off.

Joe spoke for a moment about one of his longtime favorites, "Palo Alto." Joe wants it to "steadily appreciate" and said he's concerned about too much enthusiasm for it. "I just don't want this stock going parabolic," Joe said.



Jim vs. the ‘dourness’ (a/k/a no Bread Crust today)


Judge on Wednesday's (11/15) Halftime Report tossed cold water on Stephanie Link's hyper bull case for TGT that by the way included every possible financial metric (including the actual metric and the expectations metric) and also included the dividend you get "While. You. Wait."

Judge questioned TGT's "pricing power" amid "deal-hungry shoppers."

Judge then turned to Jim Lebenthal and stated that TGT is up because of what the company's done, not because of the consumer, consumer strength is "not at all" what TGT is saying.

Jim said he's not in the stock and that Brian Cornell says the consumer is "cautious," but Jim said Cornell said they're only "delaying purchases but still following through."

"They're waiting for deals," Judge insisted.

Jim insisted, "Goods deflation has been occurring for quite some time."

Joe Terranova said TJX and ROST are more expensive than TGT and should be. Joe said TJX's Q4 guidance was weak, but, "I think you buy the weakness."

At one point, Judge challenged Jim, "The consumer is obviously slowing down," which Jim said he doesn't agree with, arguing the "dourness" associated with consumers is "misplaced." Jenny Harrington said the "dourness" was simply "disproportionate" in, of all things, her favorite stocks such as WHR, SWK and VFC.



Jenny agrees with Mike


Jim Lebenthal on Wednesday's (11/15) Halftime Report noted that NVDA is down for the "first time in 11 days" and touted all the "493 stocks" that he says are going to start catching up with a market that isn't going to see a recession.

Joe Terranova said Tuesday was a "phenomenal day" but cautioned, "Never get too low; never get too high." Joe touted "what I said on Monday," about predicting a "powerful recovery rally" in the Russell 2000.

Kari Firestone said "It feels to us that we're in a bull market."

Judge said Grandpa Jamie Dimon is warning about inflation maybe not being gone yet.

Jenny Harrington said it's "way too early to call an all-clear." Jenny cited META, UBER, XPO and TGT stocks being up for cost-cutting, which means they've gone up "not for the right reasons."

Jenny said she agreed with Mike Wilson a couple weeks ago and that she said to fade if we get to 4,400 or 4,500. Judge said Mike's year-end is 3,900 and asked if Jenny agrees with that. "No not necessarily that low," Jenny conceded.

Jenny, who loves to compute earnings and multiples and dividend yields (and sorta predict what those earnings are going to be well before they actually happen), doesn't see getting to consensus earnings of $250 and says we're "stuck in this big range."

Jenny said she was wondering a day ago, "Am I being a pig?" for not unloading some stocks during the "insane" rally, but she expects to have done some trimming by next week.

Joe contended we're "at a moment where the Russell looks like it has reached its trough," arguing the Fed can no longer be "adversarial to markets." Judge cracked, "The Russell ran so hard yesterday it might've pulled a hamstring."



Joe’s great challenge to Weiss about valuation is lost on many others


Kari Firestone on Wednesday's (11/15) Halftime Report said she bought more CHTR and SCHW, citing the "low multiple" of the latter. (But how come NVDA's multiple both went up and went down while the stock surged, Judge never asked.)

Kari owns AXP, which she called "a very cheap stock ... at this price, you can't go wrong." (That's interesting; a certain multiple evidently guarantees it won't go lower.) Joe Terranova questioned the "deterioration in price since July." Jenny Harrington said AXP's P.E. ratio is 12.8, and "growth exceeds the multiple." (So must be a slam dunk.)

Jim Lebenthal admitted BMY has been a "dog" and noted the forward multiple has gone from 10 to 7 in a year. "The reason is the Inflation Reduction Act from last year, and the introduction of drug pricing from the Centers for Medicare Services," Jim said.

Jim said "people are getting older in the world" (that sounds like a statement made by many philosophers) and need these life-saving drugs. Jenny said BMY yields 4.6% and that analysts are saying sell now when they wanted to buy it 30% ago, so "we're probably at a bottom here."

Mike Santoli said the 10-year yield is "leaking higher again."

Judge again for some reason marveled at the Russell's move a day earlier (as if it's that big of a surprise), "unbelievable to watch."

For Final Trade, Jim said long NXPI as he goes against the Burry semi short.



Jim’s ‘taken a lot of crap,’ suggests dinner at Rao’s


Jim Lebenthal launched into Tuesday's (11/14) Halftime Report declaring, "Let me just make this point, and let me make it loudly, OK: Everybody who for the last year and a half has been calling an end to this economic cycle is flat-out wrong. OK. And it's time to admit that. The Fed's done."

"I'm trying to do this with humility, but I've taken a lot of crap over the last year and a half," Jim explained.

"OK, um, I think that's fair. I think it's fair," Judge said, explaining that "what Jim said" is simply that the bear case is "dead."

Jim's victory lap aside, Grandpa Rob Sechan cautioned, "This story may not be complete," and, "We're gonna be as data-dependent as the Fed." (Rob pronounced "data" as "day-ta.")

Stephanie Link said she expects a "very diverse rally" into year-end.

Later in the show, Judge said it sounds like "All-in Jim." Jim suggested "Jimmy the Bull" and mentioned "go to Rao's tonight" (Gasparino used to talk about that place).

Rob cautioned about declaring a soft landing; Rob said he thinks Jim is "too all-in."

Mike Santoli still thinks this is a "show-me situation for this economy."

At the end of the show, Judge said a viewer has already snatched up the domain name allinjim.com. Jim "can use it anytime," Judge said the viewer said.



‘Breadth thrust’ sounds like
‘bread crust’


Judge on Tuesday's (11/14) Halftime Report was in disbelief that the Russell was up "5. Percent." during the show.

Josh Brown, who wasn't at Post 9, remotely said the "only way" the Russell climbs that much in a day is when it's "way off the highs."

Then we learned a new one. Brown said the day's gains are so big and broad, there's a "breadth thrust" going on and no way anyone can conclude "it's just another normal day."

Rather, "Very rarely do these things melt away and we go back to a downtrend," Brown asserted, which sounds a bit like the all-clear sign, if not Katie bar the door.

Nevertheless, Stephanie Link sold DE on Friday because of what seems like a "trade-down to more private label" in agriculture, and she doesn't see DE's multiple expanding "given the concerns about the cycle." Jim Lebenthal said he "comfortably" owns DE and disagrees.

Grandpa Rob Sechan touted HD; Jim said he used his HD stake to buy NKE instead.

Rob asked Jim, "Isn't the market offsides from the Fed?," citing an expectation of a 100-basis-point-cut next year while the Fed says 50, and what if this is just a "temporary pause."

Stephanie wondered if Rob is saying that CPI is going back up to 9. "I didn't say it's goin' back up to 9," Rob said, insisting he's wondering if the market is "disconnected from the Fed." Judge cut in, "There are times when the Fed has been disconnected from reality."

Judge asserted, "The Fed tried to lead the data. Now the data's gonna lead the Fed," before asking Rob, "There's no reason for the Fed to hike again, is there." (Judge pronounced "data" as "datta" literally 5 times.)

"It depends on the data!" Rob said, pronouncing "data" as "day-ta" again and noting the 10-year "just a few weeks ago" was around 5%. Rob said, "I think the Fed has faded to the background." But he doesn't think the "lag effects" (snicker) (there's that term again) are "completely baked in to the economic cake."

Josh noted that "lag effects wouldn't argue for higher rates though."



Back to Arthur Burns (cont’d)


Judge and Steve Liesman on Tuesday's (11/14) Halftime reported that Austan Goolsbee is touting how much inflation has dropped without an unemployment surge.

Steve, who usually says the market isn't absorbing the central bank's stern warnings, offered, "I don't know that the market is offsides on a hundred basis points of cuts there, Scott, I think it's worth thinking about."

Steve said that "theoretically, the Fed got tighter today" because inflation came down while rates stayed the same. But Steve shrugged off the 275-basis-point-cut call by UBS, saying Powell is not going to be ... drum roll ... Arthur Burns.




Everything’s not exactly going up for the Carolina Panthers


In the 19th minute of Tuesday's (11/14) Halftime Report, Judge mentioned "David Tepper" (potential football alert), but Judge was only talking about Tepper's comments in 2009 about everything going up, not on who's going to be the Carolina Panthers' head coach and starting quarterback next year.

(Just wait, until we get to January, and then Judge has to promote Peacock's commandeering of an NFL wild-card game for streaming customers only, to justify NBCUni's $110 million purchase of something they hope will artificially boost subs for one weekend and give CMCSA a huge multiple while most fans miss the game, then Judge will be talking about football all the time.)

Grandpa Rob Sechan touted the 52-week high in ADBE.

Judge for whatever reason decided to ask panelists about owning utilities (Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz). Stephanie Link bought PWR, calling it an onshoring play, an EV-penetration play and a modernizing-grid play.

Jim Lebenthal said he likes PCG as a "specific name" and after its wildfire troubles, it's "very well run." He said he's not excited about utilities because it's a "classic defensive sector."

Josh Brown said his utility exposure amounts to the one owned by Berkshire Hathaway.

Josh said "it's not a bad time for fishing" in dividend-paying stocks.

Rob's shop has VST, which he said is a "very small weighting."

Judge reported that Michael Burry has closed his S&P 500 and Nasdaq short positions.

Judge later said a 13-F confirmed that Burry closed out his S&P 500 and Nasdaq short positions.



‘Transitory’ back in play


"Let's ignore technicals," said Steve Weiss at the top of Monday's (11/13) Halftime Report, arguing that CPI and PPI could upend any technical pattern in the stock market.

Anastasia Amoroso says you should "tactically" remain bullish.

"Price action within the market is very bullish," offered Joe Terranova, who observed, "The dips are mini-dips at best."

Judge said Mike Wilson is at 3,900 (snicker) for year-end and "just bumped up his 2024 target to 4,500."

But Judge said Morgan Stanley's "economic team" is "much more sanguine" than Mike Wilson is.

Judge said Ed Yardeni predicts 4,600 this year and 5,400 "by mid-'24." Judge qualified it by stating, "Now he's obviously one of the more bullish people around."

"Most stocks are still going down," Weiss contended.

Karen Finerman on Fast Money asked, "Wouldn't it be funny if inflation were transitory, after all."



Judge seems to think laggards may roar in ’24


Judge on Monday's (11/13) Halftime Report said Dan Ives believes "the new tech bull market has now begun."

Judge asked Joe Terranova, if people believe Ives, will they put any money elsewhere. Joe said they will if they see the "dispersion," but "I don't see it yet."

Joe said he's not seeing "compelling evidence" for regional banks, or for that matter the Russell or biotech, which prompted a challenge of sorts from Judge.

Judge told Joe, "You and a lot of other people didn't see the evidence at the end of last year that we were gonna have the kind of market we've had this year ... what if we're set up for the same kind of counterintuitive market next year like we had this year." (Honestly, it wasn't really that counterintuitive, it's just that people in December 2022 weren't sure that the rate shellacking was over.)

Joe said "If you wanna survive in this business, what you need to do is quickly change, you need to quickly pivot." Joe said he's "very comfortable" that while he didn't see it last December, "at the end of April, I did." He said he's got NVDA "on the books" at 275.

Steve Weiss said he didn't see it "for sure," but "those same people stayed bullish all throughout '22, when I was bearish. So who won then."

"Dan Ives follows technology. Dan Ives is not having a broad view of the market," Weiss added. But Weiss said he does agree with Ives. Weiss said there's "no bid" in regional banks.



Remember when Hillary was (sorta) moving markets?


On Monday's (11/13) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova said the XBI and IBB have "punished" investors, "so Lilly and Novo are actually trading like a biotech company." (Maybe those biotech investors are still reeling from Hillary's "price gouging" tweet in 2015.)

Judge asked Sarat Sethi why he doesn't own LLY or NVO; "Why. Not."

Sarat said "they're momentum stocks" (that's why the JOET exists) and are "priced to, to the moon."

Sarat also said we "don't really know" where GLP is going to go. "17% of people who take these drugs have diarrhea or, or can't handle it," Sarat said. (Ugh.)

Steve Weiss said if the weight-loss drugs prevent heart disease or get diabetes more under control, they are going to be "good for UNH," his favorite stock of the last couple months.

Judge said ORCL got an upgrade from Edward Jones. Sarat owns the stock and touted the "high teens multiple" and said it's "fairly priced." (Judge didn't ask what direction for the stock is being signaled by that multiple.)

Weiss told Judge, "I'm not perhaps like everybody else here, that, I tend to be more concentrated in my portfolio. As Buffett says, diversification is the enemy of performance."

Weiss said "it takes 20 times as much energy for example for an AI search as a Google search."

Judge asked Joe Terranova about ABNB, which is a top pick at Bernstein despite getting a target cut from 168 to 163. (This writer is long ABNB.) Joe said that relative to EXPE and BKNG, "there's been price underperformance in the near term," which he largely attributed to "management messaging." Sarat Sethi said UBER is in a "sweet spot." (This writer is long UBER.)

Joe said he gets more excited about PANW than CSCO and noted PANW isn't reporting on a Friday afternoon.

For Final Trade, Weiss said if inflation data comes in soft and rates fall, DE will "explode higher."




Back to back in black: Karen, Mel color coordinate jackets day after black outfits


Part of Friday's (11/10) Fast Money took up Moody's new outlook on U.S. credit. "This has been happening in slow motion for quite a while," said Karen Finerman.

Mel called out the White House statement on the Moody's U.S. credit outlook change, saying the White House claimed that Moody's faulted House Republicans, and "I read the press release; they did not mention Republicans or Democrats."

Meanwhile, Guy Adami said LYFT is "probably close" to beginning to close the outsized stock gap with UBER that Guy traced to June 2022; Guy said "it's not that wide a chasm I don't think in terms of what the stocks are reflecting." (This writer is long UBER.) Karen wonders if UBER's revenue gains are "a good reflection on the economy."

Karen said PFE has been an "ATM" for those more interested in buying LLY and NVO. (No one said anything about longtime Weiss favorite MRNA, which Steve finally ditched in July.) (That was a good sale; look where the stock was at then.)

Guy complained that Berkshire has been in OXY for 2 years, but OXY has been stuck at $62 throughout that time, "it doesn't move," a quality observation.




‘David Solomon is doing a tremendous job’


Steve Weiss, sporting that great gray jacket, explained on Friday's (11/10) Halftime Report that he prefers GS to SCHW.

In a robust endorsement, Weiss declared, "I think David Solomon is doing a tremendous job," not something you hear every day; Weiss said GS is "spring-loaded" for when the pipeline starts to move.

Jenny Harrington quibbled with Weiss over Weiss' preference for GS over SCHW. Weiss said SCHW is selling ETFs and "trading," while GS is selling IPOs and merger advice, "high, high commission." Jenny said SCHW has much more "consistency" and "predictability."

Judge, who during the program seemed oblivious to last night's football game, said SCHW and GS are like "apples and oranges."



If there’s such a thing as right valuation and wrong valuation, how come WFC’s and NVDA’s valuation was going down as the stock was going up (cont’d)


Late in Friday's (11/10) Halftime Report, Judge pointed to the S&P 500 and actually said, "What a difference a day makes."

Steve Weiss agreed at the top of the show that the market's been correlated with rates but warned there's "plenty of more supply to come." He said the market next week will trade on CPI and PPI.

Jenny Harrington said Jay Powell is "trying to buy time."

Jenny said the market is at 18 times, and that's a "pretty rich valuation."

Judge said rate-hike expectations haven't moved up much but took up the notion of Powell being more hawkish on Thursday.

Josh Brown said you can't bank on Fed statements for market direction; at the end of 2018, the Fed announced it was "nowhere near" stopping rate hikes, then within 30 days was beginning rate cuts to start 2019, Brown said.

Judge asked Josh and Jenny about the Russell and market internals and whether the market needs to "improve" on that or will only go "so far."

Josh chuckled that he used to believe that, but it's been "7 years since it's been true."

Jenny credited Josh for making a point Thursday (that this page didn't even note) with "all this history" about how small caps tend to do well after years such as this. Jenny said for fundamentals, small caps look "amazing" or "beautiful."

Judge bluntly stated to Weiss, "There is no proof at this point that we in fact are late- as late-cycle as some have suggested we are."

Weiss said if you take the 2020 "blip" out, "the cycle has gone for very, very long time, an impressive long time, so just on age alone, common sense says you're late cycle."

Judge says common sense doesn't include zero rates "forever" and "boatloads" of money from the sky. Eventually, Weiss told Judge he doesn't think small caps have bottomed. Weiss also said he wouldn't be in the S&P equal weight but companies with "momentum" in earnings and fundamentals.

Jenny said she thinks "there was breadth underneath the surface this quarter," especially "really really specifically in my portfolio" and that Weiss is using "such a broad brush." Weiss said he was asked a broad-brush question; "I wasn't asked about your portfolio."

Josh challenged Weiss (and apparently Jenny) on whether it's just the biggest tech that's earning high multiples, stating there are lots of tech stocks with "outperforming" fundamentals. Jenny insisted there are some stocks at the "right valuation" and others at the "wrong valuation."



It’s already Christmas card season, apparently


Friday's (11/10) Halftime Report couldn't escape a mention of DIS.

Jenny Harrington said the "big win" (snicker) for DIS was telling shareholders "with granularity" what the plan is.

Then Jenny (again) (again) stated that DIS is trading as though the valuation is simply theme parks and everything else has "no value." And Jenny (again) compared DIS in late 2023 to META in late 2022. (We'll see if DIS has the type of 2024 that META had in 2023.)

Jenny said XPO is up "143%" but free cash flow is only 3%, so it's more likely to be a "source of funds" than an add. Steve Weiss admitted, "I made a mistake selling XPO," praising management. But he added to GXO, which he said had a "phenomenal quarter."

Jenny said she's sending Christmas cards with the message, "And may 2024 be easier to navigate," because this year has been "really emotionally distressing to people." Weiss said he bought more bitcoin, which is likely his best trade of the year. He confirmed to Judge that he's just riding momentum toward an ETF.




‘Thursday Night Football’ camera catches Tepper shaking his head


Looks like Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit scooped Judge on Thursday.

People who watched the Panthers-Bears game all the way to the end (snicker) got a glimpse in the final moments of CNBC Name/Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper in the visiting owner's box at Soldier Field as the final seconds ticked away.

We thought Al might actually tell viewers something like, "I'm on the Halftime Report several times a year and I'm long the FAS (this writer is long FAS); I don't know why Scott never talks about Tepper's football team."

But no.

The Panthers, who seemed to have loads of trouble gaining more than 8 yards on the first 3 plays of any series, lost 16-13 to a lousy team to fall to 1-8, tied for the worst record in the NFL.

Head coach Frank Reich was so desperate for a miracle (then again, it was Al Michaels in the booth), he actually attempted a 59-yard field goal with the game on the line.

"What's real is, they've got. To. Get. Better," said Herbstreit in the final moments.

The camera caught Tepper apparently noticing on a TV set somewhere that he was being shown on TV; he shook his head.

Al was prompted to speak about this camera shot and offered up the At-Least-He-Cares defense, stating, "Now David Tepper's the owner of the team and of course he's as frustrated as anybody under the circumstances. But he's owned the team for 5 years, and he's a guy who- you know, he's tryin'- he's, at all costs, he's trying to win."

That's an interesting word — not "win," but "costs." If he's trying "at all costs" to win, what does it say when — in 5 years — he's never had a winning record or a playoff game. And what exactly did Tepper spend to determine that Bryce Young — who seemed determined to absolutely NOT make a play on Thursday and was utterly outplayed by a bad team's backup quarterback from Nowhereville — was a better choice than the other 3 prized quarterback prospects taken shortly after? Or what exactly has Tepper spent to improve his team in free agency aside from 33-year-old Adam Thielen?

Skeptics may think this page is only talking about the Panthers in hopes of getting CNBC superfox Karen Finerman to talk about football. We honestly hadn't thought about that angle. But we're very happy to point out that Karen and Missy color-coordinated stunning black outfits (below) for Thursday's (11/9) edition of Fast Money.

During a discussion about the Capri-Tapestry deal, Mel even quipped to Karen, "Maybe your Kate Spade purse, which apparently needs to be innovated, according to Oliver Chen over at TD ..."

Karen suggested that if the deal falls through, Capri could theoretically fall below even 35. "At some point though, the arb in me will end up buying Capri," Karen said.

Dan Ives predicted that TSLA has a 3-handle in "6-9 months."




Josh, unlike Judge, actually tries to get Stephanie to answer Judge’s question


Josh Brown opened Thursday's (11/9) Halftime Report telling Judge, "Mainly what's improved is sentiment."

Stephanie Link, though, told Judge that "a lot of it is fundamentals."

Josh asked Stephanie if the economy "meaningfully improved" since October, "because that's what Scott's asking." Stephanie said "No," but, without really explaining her answer, insisted, "The economy's much better than OK."

Josh cited a huge jump in call activity in the first week of November, and to him, "that's a sentiment measure, has nothing to do with fundamentals."



Steve Grasso: Streaming services are ‘hitting a wall on pricing’


DIS reported this week, and you know what means on CNBC; yes, Julia Boorstin, plus more people talking about ESPN than what happens at a typical sports bar these days.

Judge on Thursday's (11/9) Halftime Report said that Stephanie Link sold DIS a while ago after getting tired of it. "A lot higher, by the way," Stephanie said, because her sales are always higher, always at a big gain.

Stephanie said DIS is a "cost-cutting story," and she's going to "let the dust settle a little bit."

Judge noted that Josh had said recently he'd be interested in DIS with a "7-handle," and now it's moved in the other direction.

"Oh well," Josh said.

Josh said DIS is "playing offense" (snicker) now. But he said it's a cost-cutting story "in an entertainment arms race."

Indeed. We looked up some independent news coverage of the Disney earnings event. "Streaming losses narrowed to $387 million" after "the company raised prices for the second time this year," according to Yahoo Finance, and "Disney expects to spend $25 billion on content next year versus the $27 billion spent in full-year 2023."

So, that's the plan: Keep hiking prices and spending less on content. (Or put another way, Charge more to watch "Dumbo" and "Hannah Montana.")

That's interesting, because Steve Grasso a day earlier on Fast Money stated, "Now, all my streaming products cost me more than my linear TV. Cost me more than what the cable companies were charging me. So, they're hitting a wall on pricing." Steve also said DIS says it's going to "crack down" on password-sharing.

Steve didn't mention whether all of these supposed subscribers for DIS, PARA, Max or whatever it's called are looking up these services on the internet and paying the listed price ... or getting free 6-month subscriptions for buying something else, eligible to cancel at any time.

Back on Thursday's Halftime, Josh said the chances of ESPN being as successful as a stand-alone app as it has been on cable TV is "very slim."

Rob Sechan said his group is digging into the question, "Is Disney the Meta for '24." (We don't think it is, but it is an interesting question.)



So Rob is trumpeting a stock for valuation when that valuation dropped as the stock went higher


On Thursday's (11/9) Halftime, Judge reported that David Einhorn is up 28% through September, net of fees, with "just pure bottom's-up stock picking." (Wouldn't it have been easier to just buy the Magnificent 7?)

But Judge said Einhorn says he's now in a "buyer's strike" (snicker).

Rob Sechan added to WFC. "Quality business, with great earnings consistency; valuation is reasonable at 9 times," Rob said, adding that he trimmed it in March and it's up 10% since, but "valuation is 15% cheaper."

Judge asked Josh Brown about TOST (Zzzzzzzzz). Josh said annual recurring revenue was up 40%. However, the Q4 guidance wasn't good. "I personally think selling it at 14 is a mistake," Brown said, adding he bought a little more on Wednesday.

"When are they gonna earn something," Stephanie Link asked. "Next year," Brown said.



Rob actually suggests possibility of a ‘death spiral’


Judge on Thursday's (11/9) Halftime Report told Rob Sechan, beaming in remotely, that the 10-year yield seems to be "all the market really cares about."

Rob, though, said he's not sure the market "did get Powell right" and that it's a "mistake to assume that he and the Fed are completely done."

"There is definitely a, a disconnecting between the, the Fed and the markets," Rob asserted.

Rob even said, "This slowdown could be a self-fulfilling prophecy and move into the death spiral."

And Rob said he thinks the year's winners will keep on winning and said that going into year-end, people will hang onto those Magnificent 7 names, actually explaining, "it's hard for us to do anything with those names because of the tax implications there."

Ah. OK. It's not enough for the stock to go up; you just can't ever sell it because you owe taxes on it.

"Not everybody is in all those stocks," Judge said, adding that Rob is being "a little selective" in suggesting the market got Powell wrong, because Judge doesn't think it's about rate cuts, rather, Powell had "numerous occasions" to "push back" against the done-raising view and didn't.

Stephanie Link observed, "It's very hard to own all of the 7."

Viewers and Judge heard Judge's question to Rob reverberating somewhere; Judge thought Rob might have had his TV on, and Rob looked over his shoulder but seemed to indicate it wasn't on as his mike was muted. And we didn't hear it the rest of the show.




This movie is not really about the person it’s named for


Around here, it's considered a priority to appreciate the arts a little bit (even during pro football seasion), so we try to get to the movie theaters occasionally and perhaps share a thought or two.

We happened to take in the Sofia Coppola film "Priscilla"; you should probably know who that's about without any explanation.

It's an interesting backstory, and the production values are impressive.

Judgments will be cast as to whether the title character is a tragic figure. Aside from that, it's a relentless depiction of a man who never grew up.



Jim doesn’t get that streaming is a hopeless quagmire (regardless of what the P.E. ratio is) and they’re all gonna be fire-saled to the Magnificent 7 (cont’d)


Wednesday (11/8) brought another episode of the Halftime Report, and wouldn't you know it, but Jim Lebenthal is bullish on streaming.

Jim said PARA just had "fabulous" earnings and is past "peak losses" (OK), and Jim claimed that "streaming is now on a much more accelerated track towards profitability (snicker)."

Judge said Jim had been arguing that one reason to own PARA is for the "strategic option," and asked Jim about an analyst's more skeptical view of that.

Jim said he still thinks "the company should be sold." But after Thursday's earnings, "it's worth a heckuva lot more, not less, a lot more (snicker), because the free cash flow is positive now."

Jim said PARA doesn't have to refinance debt until 2027. Judge wondered "what kind of premium" will this company get with "such a dramatically declining stock price." Jim said that's a "good point" but that the stock is higher than before earnings, and Jim said combining Showtime with Paramount+ was the key to keeping subscribers.

Jim's enthusiasm wasn't just limited to Paramount streaming; he wondered if, "just for today," when talking about DIS, they don't focus on ESPN or Hulu but "the health of the streaming business when the results come out." (Many people have focused on the "health" of that business division countless times, so we're not sure why he's implying it doesn't happen.)

Jim said of WBD, "There's something going on at Warner Bros. that doesn't seem to be- being replicated at Paramount."

Joe Terranova wondered how much of a Buffett premium is in PARA. Jim said he'd expect to see in the next 13-F that Berkshire has downsized its PARA holding.

Stephanie Link suggested Hugh Johnston might be the next DIS CEO. Stephanie said she doesn't know if Johnston has the "creative juices" but at least he's not Bob Chapek.



Jim: Nation ‘stupid’ not to be refilling the SPR


In a fairly quiet Halftime Report on Wednesday (11/8), Joe Terranova raised eyebrows with a 9-letter word beginning with "p."

"The concentrated performance year to date for megacap will go parabolic by the end of the year," Joe asserted.

Jim Lebenthal agreed: "For the next 6 weeks, it is likely to be a performance chase for those concentrated names," Jim said.

Joe was heard to say, "I think in 2024 we're talking about rate cuts."

"First and foremost, I think that rates have peaked," offered Stephanie Link.

After Angelica Peebles' report on LLY, Judge rehashed Joe's recent debate on the stock with Steve Weiss, who wasn't on Wednesday's show. Joe said it's going higher. "It's almost trading as if, uh, it's a biotech stock," Joe said.

Stephanie Link said of CVX, "The M&A is distracting them, quite frankly."

Jim noted they haven't talked about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in "several weeks," adding, "We as a nation have done something stupid ... it's really, really too low, we need to refill it."

Jim said XOM and CVX are no longer "twins" and he's happy to be in XOM.

Bill Baruch took a small position in JPM.




Judge has been talking about Druckenmiller and Griffin ... but not Tepper


This page honestly has no idea what kind of year David Tepper is having on Wall Street.

But we do know what kind of year he's having in the NFC South standings.

Tepper is the hands-on owner of the Carolina Panthers. He bought the team in 2018. It hasn't had a winning season under his ownership. It hasn't had a playoff game. Under Tepper's ownership, the Panthers have gone 7-9, 5-11, 5-11, 5-12 and 7-10.

This year, though, is a new low.

In January, he hired a respected but lackluster coach best known for coughing up a playoff berth the previous season with a Week 18 loss to the league's worst team.

Heading into April's NFL Draft, the Panthers had earned the right to select 9th. But this was viewed as a historially strong quarterback draft, with 4 prospects possibly going in the top 5 picks, and Tepper aggressively traded up with the Chicago Bears for the No. 1 choice, giving up the team's top wide receiver and the team's 2024 No. 1 pick and a couple 2nd-rounders.

3 of those 4 quarterbacks do appear to be stars; one of them quite possibly already on his way to Canton.

Tepper picked someone else.

Now, at 1-7, the Panthers are in a horse race for the No. 1 overall pick in next year's draft, where a couple more apparent franchise quarterbacks await.

Except the Panthers' pick is going to the Chicago Bears as a result of last spring's trade.

Honestly, if anyone had a formula for NFL success, it would be a best seller. Many prominent and well-heeled franchises have struggled with mediocrity (or worse) for literally decades. The Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets/Giants, Washington franchise. Drafting a good quarterback, by insight or luck, is a big step. Hiring a good coach is important too. But even that's hard to figure. Bill Belichick was mediocre at best before and after Brady. Joe Gibbs was legendary for about a dozen years and utterly forgettable in his 2nd go-round. Jimmy Johnson put together one juggernaut and barely topped .500 with another team. Nick Saban couldn't win.

But here's what you need to know: The NFL, unlike Wall Street, is designed to be cyclical, so that the worst teams get the opportunities for the best prospects, so that no one is terrible forever. And in this egalitarian (that's the kind word) environment, Tepper is historically bad.

Don't take it from this page; take it from the Guardian. "Under his ownership, the Panthers have yet to record a winning season, gave a seven-year, fully guaranteed $62m contract to head coach Matt Rhule then fired him a few years later and gave up possibly too much draft capital for Young. Tepper's expertise, and the source of the wealth that got him the Panthers, are in finance. And should any members of the club's front office need advice on market dynamics, Tepper would no doubt be of great use. On football matters, Tepper's team would be better served if he invested more passively."

The problem with that "passive" argument is it assumes that Tepper will be more successful at appointing the person to appoint the players and coaches than he was at appointing the players and coaches himself.

Tepper's from Pittsburgh and used to be seen as a potential owner of the Steelers should the Rooney family ever have to sell. He did own 5% of that team before relinquishing it in buying the Panthers.

No one here is cheering the Panthers' or Tepper's struggles. We wish him (and his Halftime Report friends) well. Rather, it's just remarkable that people who are hailed almost daily on TV for their business acumen could struggle this much at what's basically a simple game.

For all those at home in armchairs pointing at the TV and saying "I could do better than that" ... they probably can.



Weiss says Ken Griffin is speaking to a hometown crowd


Tuesday's (11/7) Halftime Report unfortunately didn't come up with too many interesting topics, as panelists dug in to their well-dug positions.

Liz Young opened the show saying the market in the last week and a half has just gotten a "bit of a relief."

Liz added, "I don't think that a ferocious rally like this is durable."

But Judge said the market has "defied some sense of logic for a while." Liz said maybe it's defied "timing maybe more than logic."

Steve Weiss said he would agree with Liz, "It hasn't defied logic; it's defied timing," and quite frankly none of these comments about defying logic or timing makes much sense.

Jim Lebenthal agreed "there is a timing question here," about the "lag effects" of tightening. But Jim said for almost 2 years, "these non-tech companies have been outearning."

Jim said that what's being overlooked is how balance sheets are being "really, really cleaned up."

Jason Snipe said data and yields have been weaker, and "seasonality is obviously in play."

Jason bought NOW, citing enterprise spending in the cloud space.

In a lengthy explanation about why he has bought MSFT and GOOGL instead of CAT and DE, Weiss boasted, "I don't manage to a benchmark. So I manage for absolute performance."

Judge said a survey of 18-34-year-olds found that Amazon and Apple are their favorite companies. Weiss said it's like back in the day when the Peter Lynch style of investing worked. Weiss tried to argue that younger folks are "uninformed" about how this time it's gonna be different about the Fed rescuing/not rescuing the markets. Jim argued that there are times when "value outperforms growth." Judge pointed out that Berkshire's biggest position is AAPL.

Judge said that Ken Griffin says "you have to invest in China." Weiss said, "He's sitting in Hong Kong while he's making that statement, so I think it's pretty clear why he's saying it. ... I'm not saying he lacks integrity; he certainly doesn't, but I think that colored some of what he said."

Judge asked Jim about Evercore's 124 target on NKE. Jim said China demand and margins are both getting better. We were waiting for Jim to make the P.E. ratio argument, but he didn't. Weiss said "it's a consumer brand" and now's not the time for consumer stocks.

Jason Snipe said he likes LOW over HD because of opportunity in the pro segment. Jim sold HD and called those stocks "dead money."

Weiss said he's "surprised at the turnaround" in UBER stock but said there was "pretty good" volume growth on the number of rides. He did "shave a little" of his stake because "it has gotten more expensive." (This writer is long UBER.)

Weiss bought more HUM on Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning. He touted that stock again with UNH.

Jason Snipe said CVX has an "ugly chart" though he does like the HES purchase. Weiss said his problem with oil is that the speculation "always overcomes fundamentals."




What better place to advertise a golf league than a ... ballpark


In the 2nd half of Monday's (11/6) Halftime Report, Judge introduced golf great Rory McIlroy and Tom Werner live at Fenway Park to discuss the new TGL golf league co-founded by Tiger Woods and Rory that involves team play in an indoor setting.

(And after listening to this interview, we honestly have no clue what this league does or is ... but whatever.)

(Also, it seems like Judge is more interested in the actual PGA Tour than in this side venture.)

Rory explained that it's not "simulated" golf and will be "like an NBA game, hopefully." (For some reason, a chap was raking the infield at Fenway Park, even though it's November and the Red Sox can't possibly have a game scheduled.)

Judge asked Werner how much these TGL teams cost. "I don't really want to get into the financials," Werner said.

Judge said NBC Sports "will be a founding partner of the Boston Common team." (That's why this interview was happening.)

Judge asked Werner if Fenway Sports "made a large bid to invest in the PGA Tour," as had recently been reported. "Well we don't really like to talk about things that are, uh, in discussion," Werner said. Judge persisted, asking Werner to confirm the bid report. Werner chuckled, "We confirm that we've had conversations."

Judge pressed Rory, a "player-director," for comment on PGA Tour bids. Rory simply said golf has never been in a "stronger shape" or "in a healthier place."

Judge persisted that Rory is "the most outspoken of, of your colleagues" on the "future of the Tour" and pressed whether Rory would be OK with "the status quo being LIV against the PGA Tour." Rory said he would prefer "if everyone sorta got back into the same boat" rather than a "fractured competitive landscape."




Joe says Judge likes to ‘emphasize’ the ‘negative things’


Late on Monday's (11/6) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova asked Judge, "You appreciate that I'm candid about the positions that I own, right?"

"Yes," Judge said, wondering if Joe appreciates how Judge remembers what Joe says.

"Especially all the negative things too," Joe chuckled. "You like to emphasize those."

Bryn Talkington said that oil giants, with the price of a barrel running 75-90, have "tremendous free cash flow yield" and that "better times are ahead."

Joe said the JOET is at 12.8% in energy. Joe said, "My intuitive sense says that there needs to be a shakeout in positioning, in energy, in oil, in the ownership of the sector before we see what everyone sees, which is the expected rebound and outperformance."

Bill Baruch bought more CAT; he sees "a number of tailwinds" to lift it after the earnings reaction. He also bought WAB, in part for its recurring revenues and "strong momentum." But he sold RTX, which has "really underperformed."

Bryn asserted that it's "too early" to buy regional banks. Judge asked Steve Weiss, if you're going to buy regionals, when are you going to buy them if not now.

"Not now," Weiss stated, mentioning commercial real estate.

Joe agreed with Weiss' assessment of banks but said when he is ready to buy, he'll look at MS.

Weiss said he added to MSFT last week and has a "very sizable position."

Bryn said NVDA's move to 444 last Friday was a "good opportunity" to sell 500 calls.

Joe touted EXPE over BKNG, which he said has "more concern surrounding the horrific events of the Middle East."

Weiss said he expects a "good quarter" from UBER. (This writer is long UBER.) Bryn said "the market's kinda fickle" on RBLX because it "doesn't have earnings," but she likes it long term. That got a "good stuff" from Judge.

Bryn's Final Trade was FCX based on EV sales in China. Weiss trumpeted HUM again and Joe said LLY.



Judge says bears ‘have been singing the same look-forward tune for the last year’


Joe Terranova at the top of Monday's (11/6) Halftime Report contended, "The equity market Scott went from being deeply oversold to now being deeply overbought." But Joe said there doesn't seem to be a "sense of urgency" to sell.

Judge asked Steve Weiss about the Russell's giveback. Judge said Mike Wilson says the recent gains look like a "bear market rally." Weiss admitted, "I've been mostly in his camp," but "we don't know."

"Last week was an easy week" to be bullish, Weiss shrugged.

Weiss said markets just had the "perfect storm" to rally. He insisted, "The bears are looking forward."

Judge said "The bears have been singing the same look-forward tune for the last year. 'Recession's comin', recession's here, recession's next week,'" which is a pretty accurate summation.

"Granted," Weiss said, but the bears haven't been "entirely wrong."

Bryn Talkington, who wasn't on the set, agreed with Judge's suggestion that the market's in "uncharted waters," and that stocks just went from only 10% above their 10-day moving average to 90% being above. "If you missed last week, you missed a really nice move, really across asset classes," Bryn said.

Joe said the market has begun forecasting a rate cut by June 2024 but cautioned, "the market can very easily Scott begin to price out those rate cuts in 2024."



Joe actually claims people might be ‘quickly’ rushing to catch the DIS train pulling out of the station


DIS came up on Friday's (11/3) Halftime Report, as Judge asked Brian Belski about owning the shares.

"We made a mistake," Belski said, adding he likes NFLX, GOOGL and T "way better."

Jenny Harrington also owns DIS and stressed it's down 1% this year and again made the argument it's only trading on theme park valuation so you're getting the whole streaming quagmire for "free". Judge said it's "significantly down from its 52-week high."

"The narrative here is all over the place," said Shannon Saccocia about DIS.

Joe Terranova said DIS is just a couple dollars from being a "technical buy." (Forget the streaming quagmire.) Joe referenced Josh Brown's interest in buying DIS in the 70s and offered, with a straight face somehow, "next thing you know it's in the 90s" and you start thinking "Wait a second, the train potentially is pulling out of the station, I better get- run quickly to get on it."



Jenny claims this week’s market is ‘as high as we can get’


Early on Friday's (11/3) Halftime Report, Judge referred to Mike "I Refuse To Throw In The Towel" Wilson (that's what Judge called him) apparently saying not to count on a year-end rally, explaining a new one for viewers, "breadth typically leads price."

"I agree with Mike," said Jenny Harrington, based on "simple math" (snicker).

Jenny said "Mike's comment is based on The Market, which is The S&P 500." Judge said the S&P is up 6% in a week.

"And I think that's as high as we can get," Jenny asserted, based on 2024 "consensus earnings" (snicker) (as though those are a guarantee).

Judge was skeptical, contending, "I'm sure you would've said that last week; there's no room for upside from here."

"Oh no no no no no," Jenny protested, "Actually last week, I kinda had the same math out there," at 4,150. "I think we're stuck. I've been thinking that we're stuck for a very long time," Jenny said.

Judge said the bears have been saying "the price is wrong," and that Mike has said it "repeatedly." Judge said bears have been holding onto "deficit" (snicker) and "recession odds growing" (double snicker) (we've been hearing that for several years).

Judge even suggested, "The Fed's done, more than likely."



‘3½ for 4’ (sounds like a movie review)


Judge opened Friday's (11/3) Halftime Report with a declaration, "Let's make this real simple: Yields way down. Stocks way up."

"I'd say the bulls went 3½ for 4 this week," Judge added.

Brian Belski said people had been "massively negative" and he's now "uber-bullish" because bears are "doubling down" on a "changing" narrative.

Judge said Michael Hartnett says the path is clear for a rally.

Going too far to find supporting evidence, Joe Terranova first said "You are only as strong as your weakest link," then went on to identify the 3 weakest links in the market: the Russell, regional banks and real estate. Joe said those sectors being up "provides stability."

Joe yet again referred to Treasury refunding and stated, "That's what got all of this going." Then Joe added, with some degree of amazement, "The market is literally cheering the fact we are slowing down." Judge said "the definition of a soft landing" is slowing down and not crashing.

Jenny Harrington again made her recent argument about time frames and whether you should buy bonds.

Joe said "as I said the other day" (sigh), "If you wanna have ownership of cash, then you believe we have stagflation ahead of us." (Or, maybe they just believe bonds and stocks aren't good buys at the moment.)



Bad timing when a stock in a momentum fund falls 16% 2 days after rebalancing


Judge on Friday's (11/3) Halftime Report brought up FTNT as the "Chart of the Day." Judge said it's in the JOET. Joe Terranova said he wanted IT to be the Chart of the Day.

Joe said FTNT's day is "idiosyncratic" and based on "sales execution."

"It looks ugly right now," Joe admitted, stressing it's not a "referendum" on the cybersecurity space. As for the JOET, "It'll be dealt with at the end of January," Joe asserted.

Jenny Harrington agreed with "idiosyncratic" and explained why her shop has "always" owned PANW over FTNT, because PANW is "more resilient."

But Judge noted EXPE is also in the JOET. Joe said EXPE had "very low" expectations going into earnings and is more domestically oriented than BKNG and has an "aggressive" buyback going on.

Joe and Jenny assessed the performance of SWKS (Zzzzzzzz).

Bill Baruch dialed in to report that he added to both AMD and NVDA. Bill said AMD had a "great report" and said he also decided he didn't have to find the "next NVDA" when the first one is right in front of him.

Judge noted the JOET shed AMD. Joe shrugged that it's "the rules."



‘Nervous’ about a stock upgrade (a/k/a Sully says student loan pause led to car, home purchases)


On Friday's (11/3) Halftime Report, Judge said UBER got a "big upgrade" from KeyBanc with a 60 price target. (This writer is long UBER.)

"Frankly it makes us nervous," said Jenny Harrington, calling that price target "aggressive." (But not nervous about that 7% yield in VFC.)

Joe Terranova said UBER belongs in the S&P 500 and predicted it goes "well into the 60s." Brian Belski said it'll join the S&P 500 next year and be classified as an "industrial."

Belski said "we made a mistake" on LKQ and sold it after a month. He also sold HOG and LPLA. But he touted buying more SFB. Judge mentioned that IBKR is in the JOET. "I'd buy the dip," Joe said.

Jenny bought more AMBP and said it has an 11% yield "and they are going to pay that come hell or high water."

Shannon Saccocia actually made utilities her Final Trade.

On Closing Bell, guest host Sully observed, "According to Equifax, or TransUnion, one of the two, half the people who had student loan debt deferred for 3 years bought a home or a car or both. So they weren't paying any student loans, so they just bought something else, and that's great for them except I'm now worried they're gonna have both those payments, or triple payments."

Sully revealed, "I'm a huge Montreal Alouettes fan." Later he said, "By the way, I'm a Chargers fan. I should say, I am THE Chargers fan."



That’s quite an inference — ‘the Nvidia software moat has eroded’


Josh Brown on Thursday's (11/2) Halftime Report said for Berkshire Hathaway, there are negatives, including "a huge part of the business is utilities," but there are also positives, including that the consumer businesses are holding up and "half the stock portfolio is Apple."

Josh recommended listening to Charlie Munger on the Acquired podcast.

Bill Baruch, who briefly joined the show via video, bought more MSFT and ORCL.

Bill is keeping an eye on AMD and said Josh made a "great buy" in the stock. "Right now, the Nvidia software moat has eroded," Bill contended, and he thinks AMD "can really take off here."

Josh, though, said, "Important to note, the Nvidia software advantage is very much alive and well," but that AMD's own ROCM platform could maybe capture 10-20% of the market with chips for "inference."

Jim Lebenthal said he's sorry that QCOM isn't as high as he thought it would be. "I do think it's gonna get there," he said. "It looks like the smartphone cycle has bottomed."



Jim concedes ‘big loss’ in PARA stake (but nevertheless still thinks streaming is a decent business)


In a stark revelation on Thursday's (11/2) Halftime Report, Jim Lebenthal admitted "I'm in a big loss" in PARA.

"They've gotta control costs," Jim said of the pending quarter. Looks like they did OK, based on afterhours stock performance. (This review was posted overnight Thurs-Fri.)

Referring to streaming distribution of "Mission: Impossible," Josh Brown told Jim, "They blew up their own movie at the box office this summer; that was supposed to lead to increased subs."

Jim said the PARA subscriber projections on "Apptopia" (snicker) look good. Brown said his own weight-loss projection looks good and told Jim, "You've got a content problem" at PARA. (That's part of it; the bigger part is relentlessly chasing all those subscribers month after month and year after year and constantly needing new hit programs to ... maybe break even.)

Jim indicated he doesn't agree. Jim said price hikes are "sticking without much churn."

Jim again insisted that streaming services are "not like Gannett and the newspapers in the '90s." That's kind of an interesting statement. If newspapers had AAPL's or DIS' money behind them, they'd be printing until 2123.

Kari Firestone said, "It's a tough space."

Josh Brown said there's no issue with demand for LYV but there's a government overhang, though it looks "benign" right now.



A few days ago it was all about rates; now it was all about mutual fund selling


Josh Brown opened Thursday's (11/2) Halftime Report explaining that mutual funds end their year on Oct. 31, leading to "exacerbated" losses in slumping stocks that funds are selling to claim losses.

Brown said "TLCs" (tax loss candidates) tend to outperform from November through January.

Josh said it's been a "particularly difficult year for active managers ... so you know there's chasing."

Josh joked that this is the "Mariah Carey season" and not the time to sell; "it's Druckenmiller vs. Mariah. I'm goin' Mariah."

Judge said Stan is "not negative in the very near-term," it's about "what comes next." Josh said Stan was making the "riskiest-time-I've-ever-seen" argument in 2010.

Josh said "the best piece of investment advice offered by anyone on this network this week (that's a high bar) is Stan Druckenmiller getting extremely romantic about the 2-year."

Judge said Bill Gross thinks regional banks have "hit bottom."

Jim Lebenthal affirmed he thinks there's a "rally coming from here to year-end," but he didn't say "face-ripping rally" this time.

Kari Firestone said it's "asking a lot" for the stock market to recoup its 11% selloff (presumably by year-end, as it wouldn't be asking a lot to hope for that by 2025).

Kari said we could get "another 5%" on the S&P, "certainly."

Judge replayed the clip of Jeffrey Gundlach stating the S&P 500 is sitting around its trend line, and, in sort of a backhanded bullish call on stocks, suggested this is a "poor trade location to be a seller."

Jim wondered what Jeffrey would say about the day's "gangbusters" productivity number.



‘The market can still go up without Apple having a good quarter’


CNBC's Steve Kovach ushered in the AAPL conversation on Thursday's (11/2) Halftime Report saying AAPL is looking at better comps.

Kari Firestone said she doesn't think the AAPL report will be as bad as some fear (the stock wasn't great afterhours) (this review was posted overnight Thurs-Fri), and then stirred up a bit of a hornet's nest in stating, "I don't think Apple is as important to this market that we're experiencing (sic last 3 words redundant) than it has been as important to past markets."

"I'm not sure I agree with you, but why do you think that," Judge asked.

"Because what's driving this market is not Apple right now. Apple is- is really not been a factor in this- in this rally this week," Kari said.

"Nasdaq's up 5% in a week," Judge countered.

"Look at the movers today," Kari said.

Josh Brown weighed in, "You're not getting 800 Dow points without Apple being up-"

"Right, but I think the market can still go up without Apple having a good quarter, is what I'm saying," Kari insisted.

"Ooh I don't know, do we agree with that? Do we agree with that? Those are fightin' words," Judge said.

"Could it- Could it trend higher? Yeah; it's not gonna rally without Apple and Microsoft. Mathematically, it can't," Josh said.

Kari said the AAPL number will be "acceptable."

Judge declared Kari was making a "controversial (snicker) statement." Jim Lebenthal said he does agree with Kari. Jim said the advice for AAPL is "Just don't mess it up," which means, "don't come out of the blue with something that nobody's expecting."

Josh pointed to AAPL's declining margins over a couple years and said "there's gotta be a bottom in sight."

Jim said there's a "good comp" coming up for AAPL.

Based on what the Fast Money crew said, as AAPL shares barely dipped little afterhours, the earnings were kind of a mixed bag; Guy Adami said "it's gonna be interesting to see how we trade tomorrow."



Rich Saperstein said high is in for the year for stocks; that would be 4,607.07


Judge on Thursday's (11/2) Halftime asked Kari Firestone about PYPL, a stock that many panelists used to tout but now pretty much only has Kari left in its corner.

Kari said PYPL finally had a quarter that was "reasonably good." She said the new CEO "talked about the right things" (which seems like a low bar for CEO performance) and "he has to keep doing this and the stock eventually is gonna respond."

Josh Brown, who has previously mentioned competitors to PayPal as a serious headwind, said growth managers might remain "disappointed" with PYPL but it's possible to have "a whole new cohort of value investors looking at PayPal." Brown suggested changing the company name to Venmo.

Josh said "the big picture" for SHAK is that the licensing business is "absolutely on fire."

Josh called SBUX underrated and one of the best at executing strategies. Judge actually remembered that Josh sold SBUX in January 2022. (That's impressive recall, assuming it's correct).

Kari predicted a good number from BKNG. "The stock's cheap; I mean this is not an expensive stock at all," Kari said, reminding us of Joe's P.E. ratio question a day ago (see below). (Judge didn't bother to ask Kari the same question Joe asked Weiss.)

Kari sold ALGN and INMD in part because she said consumer spending on some goods has weakened.





Joe challenges Weiss to explain how valuation moves stock prices; Weiss can’t


It was Joe Terranova Day on Wednesday's (11/1) Halftime Report all because it was the first show after the JOET rebalancing.

Yet, Joe proved to be the unsung hero by asking a sensational question that Judge hasn't had the brass to ask.

It happened when Joe mentioned that the JOET re-added LLY and explained the "process" of owning it, originally buying April 2022 at 290 and selling July 2023 at 453.

Joe asked if anyone in that situation should "lament" that you got out of LLY, or just follow the rules of the JOET and go back in, which is what Joe did.

And then Joe asked Steve Weiss to opine on that strategy. Weiss chuckled, "In this market, I'm not goin' back in."

Weiss asserted that "it's all downside momentum" in LLY and claimed "the stock's down 10%," then suggested it could maybe fall another 10%.

Joe referred to the gap up in August and ... this was his shining moment ... noted LLY trades at 78 times; "momentum doesn't take that into account."

"Fortunately we can," Weiss said.

Joe was just getting heated up — and you should jot this one down for its massive truth: "We talk about valuation all the time on this show, right. Is valuation really the catalyst for where future returns are gonna be and where you wanna be," Joe asked Weiss, the ultimate money question.

"It's not momentum either, it's fundamentals," Weiss sidestepped.

"I didn't ask that question," Joe said, brimming with confidence throughout this exchange. "I said, is valuation."

"Yes, it's one part of it, absolutely, it's one part of it," Weiss insisted (which it's not, but whatever ... if it is, why doesn't he tell us which part), admitting he looks at charts "a little bit" but "basically fundamentals are gonna control what I do."

"OK. It does not work in all cases from my opinion when you look at valuation. You have stocks trading at single P.E.s for a decade and the stock goes nowhere," Joe correctly argued.

"As I said, fundamentals also," Weiss protested.

Note: The LLY trading sounds a little ... dicey. This page is not endorsing or knocking that particular trade or the JOET's "momentum-quality" formula. (This writer has no position in LLY or JOET.) It's Joe's recognizance (which many of his panelists don't share) of the head fake/pump fake that is P.E. ratios that we'll count as a grand slam for this exchange.



Joe says JOET is ‘correlating right now to the Russell’


The reverberations of Joe Terranova's revelation last week that he expects the JOET to underperform the S&P 500 were still echoing on Wednesday's (11/1) Halftime Report.

Judge asked Joe, "You're not benchmarked though against the S&P, right, you're- you're- aren't you benchmarked against the factor of momentum."

"Look, I have the privilege to sit in this seat, so the viewers are going to benchmark me vs. the S&P," Joe conceded.

"Well, there's no question that they're going to do that," Judge agreed.

"I understand that," Joe said, "but the benchmark is against momentum itself, and just so- to be clear, momentum investing is real."

Joe again stressed the JOET being "equally weighted." Joe said the S&P 500 median market is $183 billion, and in the JOET it's $44 billion. "So when you're equally weighted, and you don't own the megacaps, guess what you trade like. You trade like a small cap. And basically, we are correlating right now to the Russell. That's what our correlation is currently."



Joe remembers ‘Trivariate’ but not ‘Parker’


Early on Wednesday's (11/1) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova confirmed the JOET is holding NVDA, MSFT and META, AAPL and GOOGL. But it did sell AMD.

Joe couldn't even remember Adam Parker's last name, which prompted a joke from Judge, "such a good friend we can't remember his name." Joe said "I was gonna call him Adam- Adam Sandler by the way."

Joe said he heard Josh Brown a day earlier and thinks AMD will be "fine," but that there's a "deterioration in revenue."

The JOET sold ANSS, KEYS and TXN. But old favorite "Palo Alto" was one of the buys, and Joe said he owns it personally, a "very strong momentum winner." Other buys were ADSK, CHKP, CTSH and IT. But then Joe got a little tripped up by the JOET's factor of "quality" (which is kind of ... um ... debatable) as well as "momentum."

"I think it's the quality more than the momentum factor," Joe said.

"I thought they had to have both," Judge said.

Joe said, "They can have both, but one could be more of the contributing factor into why it is added into the portfolio than the other."




Bryn doesn’t opine at all on where TSLA is going, instead just brags about past trades


Judge on Wednesday's (11/2) Halftime Report asked Bryn Talkington, who was actually at Post 9, about the JOET's TSLA move.

Bryn, who did look dynamite, didn't opine in the slightest on whether this was a good move but boasted "I think I traded Tesla really well" (or better than the JOET did), saying she bought TSLA at 115, 150 and 170, then sold calls, "2 of my positions got called away at 220 and 190."

The JOET added OXY and PXD; "we really maintain the energy overweight exposure," but this is a "prove-it quarter" for the sector, Joe said.

Bryn said she favors the RSPG so her portfolio isn't overweighted by XOM or CVX.




‘Stocks have probably seen their high for the year’


"Stocks have probably seen their high for the year," contended Rich Saperstein on Wednesday's (11/1) Halftime Report, saying the bond market is "where the action is."

Steve "Recession" Weiss didn't quite say that but said it's "unrealistic" to think Jay Powell will give the doves anything. Repeating his newfound favorite line of the last couple weeks, regarding how rates are stuck on high, Weiss asserted, "That die is cast (snicker)."

Later, Weiss invoked another one of his old saws, stating, "Your returns are defined your- by your point of entry. This is not the time to go into the market." (Note to viewers: Returns are also defined by where you sell.)

At the top of the show, Joe Terranova announced, "We learned what $2 billion is worth to the market. It's worth 15 basis points lower."

Joe said the TBAC (Zzzzzz) (not an acronym heard on the show every day) is "recognizing" that on the long end, "demand is beginning to wane."

"The mutual fund selling is over," asserted Bryn Talkington, pointing to Oct. 31, and now there's "seasonality kicking in."

But Bryn predicted a "lid" on stocks because of the endless federal stimulus from the "American (sic probably meant 'Inflation') Recovery Act."



Did Tepper tell Judge how to hire a coach and draft a No. 1 pick and win NFL games?


Judge on Wednesday's (11/1) Halftime Report aired Dubravko Lakos' clip from a day earlier about how "cash is king"; Judge asked Joe Terranova about cash vs. bonds.

Joe said, "For the answer to be cash, you have to believe that the environment over the next several years is stagflation. I don't see it that way," and that over 12 months, "the better opportunity, absolutely is in the bond market."

Bryn Talkington said she'll "take cash and some munis all day long on the short end, and then equities longer term are the best hedge against inflation in the public markets."

Rich Saperstein said the risk of cash and short-duration bonds is "simply reinvestment risk."

Judge aired Stan Druckenmiller's clip from early in the morning. Judge said it "smacks" of what Tepper told Judge a couple weeks ago, "different environment, different multiple."

On Wednesday's Closing Bell, Judge brought in Jeffrey Gundlach for post-Fed commentary and asked about Dubravko's cash assertion. "I don't think you wanna be in cash," said Gundlach, explaining that "your interest rate, which is very attractive presently, may decline quite substantially next year." He'd rather be "in something that's about 2-3 years."



Final Trade: Jethro Tull


In the 17th minute of Wednesday's (11/1) Halftime Report, Judge really got into the JOET rebalancing.

The JOET sold TSLA; "a breakdown in momentum," Joe Terranova said, reaffirming, "This is a momentum-based product with a defensive layer being added upon it, which is the quality factor."

Joe said he and the JOET got in to MRK at 74.50 and got out at 102; he said "the momentum has broken down." The JOET also bought LLY, VEEV and ZTS.

Joe cited the "slowdown in Asia" for the JOET's sale of NKE. "We entered the trade at a poor price," Joe admitted, "somewhere around 124."

Joe said ULTA is "quality" and "trades at a reasonable valuation" but "the strategy doesn't like turning winners into losers."

Bryn Talkington stated, "The market's saying, Nike and Ulta are sells right now."

Steve Weiss said HUM to him is a buy but in this market, you've "sorta got to wait around." Judge said HUM has been a "tread-water trade" this year. Weiss said it hasn't been for him; "Your point of entry defines your return," and he got in that trade at a "pretty good spot."

Weiss said HD is a "permanent compounder," yet another of his favorite slogans.

The Final Trade was a Laff-a-Lympics as something really hilarious was going on during the commercial break. We did hear Rich Saperstein say "Aqualung."

On Closing Bell's post-Fed edition, Jeffrey Gundlach, as he's prone to do, launched into his take on Jerome Powell before Judge could even ask a question. "I think the market likes 'carefully,'" Jeffrey said, noting "the yield curve is completely flat."

Jeffrey said he's seeing "almost on a day-to-day basis now that people are realizing that this interest expense problem is starting to come home very quickly." Jeffrey says we're at "Defcon 3 ... about to go to Defcon 2" in terms of debt.




Icebergs, not cubes: Jim still thinks streamers are good businesses when they’re all (except NFLX) massive money-losing quagmires (a/k/a ‘disagreeing’ here is the same as ‘dismissing’)


Love it or merely like it, DIS is generally an interesting company to discuss.

Especially on Tuesday's (10/31) Halftime Report, when Josh Brown and Jim Lebenthal clashed over someone's downgrade.

Josh said he really wants to buy DIS; "I think we're close," but he thinks he can get it "low 70s." (The only problem with that theory, which Judge didn't mention, is that Brown wants to buy it now in the low 70s; if it does get there, it'll be because of some kind of news that'll make people hold their noses about it including Brown.)

"The problem with Disney is that the news keeps getting worse ... you have melting-iceberg businesses," Brown said. "ESPN is going to be a problem," and while Nelson Peltz is a "positive development ... I also don't think he has the answer, uh, to what should be done."

Jim first stated that people made the case for the melting iceberg/ice cube (Brown said "iceberg," but Jim seemed to think he said "Ice cube") about newspapers in the '90s, and "that was right."

But Jim said he doesn't think DIS will go down newspapers' path and made his usual case for Hulu (Zzzzzzzzzzzz) and predicted DIS will "monetize ESPN."

Jim said, "The linear business, it's wrong to call it a melting ice cube (Brown didn't call it a cube, but whatever). It's being transformed into a different substance, namely streaming (snicker)."

Stephanie Link said DIS has "a lot of debt."

Brown stressed profits that now come from ESPN. Jim told Josh, "I get your point; it's very well made."

'But you do dismiss his point though," Judge correctly said.

"I'm not dismissing it. I'm not dismissing it. I'm disagreeing with it; that's a big difference, OK," Jim said.

"Streaming profits from Hulu will never offset" what DIS is losing from linear ESPN, Brown correctly contended.

Jim said the analyst suggestion of possible negative operating income from ESPN is "too draconian."

As time ran short, Brown did do a kick-butt transition to the commercial and Santoli teaser.

For a Final Trade, Jim was touting CLF. (Not PARA.)




Viewer tip: Everybody on TV who owns a stock that gets hammered on earnings calls it an overreaction


Judge on Tuesday's (10/31) Halftime Report brought in Kevin Simpson remotely to talk about CAT, which was the only the first stock of the day recently touted on the show that had problems.

Kevin said "the real thesis was to hold off and wait for earnings." He said the selloff was "a little bit of an overreaction" but that he's got a "trade teed up" to add, after they "let some of the sellers get out of the way."

Stephanie Link prefers DE to CAT, saying "I happen to like the ag cycle. They're sold out in terms of equipment for 2023. Farmer income is actually off the charts; inflation is coming down," which is interesting, given that DE announced "indefinite" layoffs in September.

Jim Lebenthal assured that the Boeing-Spirit problem will "get worked out" and, invoking his regular steps forward/steps back analysis of BA, said the last couple months have been "one big step back."

On Fast Money, CNBC superfox Karen Finerman said she "sadly" owns Z on a day like Tuesday; she thinks knee-jerk reactions such as this are "overdone" but that it's "far from over."



On May 31, Jenny seemed to complain about having to talk about a bad trade on TV; on Tuesday she eagerly calls in


Late in Tuesday's (10/31) Halftime Report, Judge brought in Jenny Harrington to discuss the VFC report that Jenny touted just a few days ago.

Judge showed a 5-year chart, and Jenny protested, "We only added this a couple months ago," around 19.

Jenny said after this kind of report, you go through the "stages of grief." Jenny conceded the income strategy with the stock is "ruined" because the dividend was cut 70%. But she said the capital appreciation thesis is "mostly intact" and the "turnaround" thesis is "totally intact."

Judge said Cramer is saying the VFC turnaround won't happen "overnight" and will be a "long-term thing," and it "sounds to me" like Jenny's thesis "has quickly fallen apart."

"Not really," Jenny insisted, other than the dividend. (On Friday, Jenny touted VFC's 7% yield.)




Dubravko’s outlook is all based on rear-view mirror stuff


Judge announced Dubravko Lakos, the star guest of Tuesday's (10/31) Halftime Report, as a new Hall of Famer (it's the Institutional Investor All-America Research Hall of Fame), which of course merits congrats.

But Dubravko doesn't seem to think this is a Hall of Fame-caliber stock market.

And, interestingly, the day's 3 panelists at Post 9 seemed to gang up against Lakos' view.

Dubravko conceded, "I am one of the doubters" of outlooks such as Jim Lebenthal's rosy view, citing a "big headwind" of macro.

"Liquidity is getting sucked out of the system," Lakos contended.

Lakos said fundamentals are slowing, not collapsing, with "increasing bifurcation."

Jim says companies have "outearned" the rate-hike lag time and have "cleaned up their balance sheet."

But Dubravko suggested that companies are not growing organically "but just through price."

Jim asked why companies aren't laying people off. Dubravko said "that's the lag effect."

Josh Brown asserted that "small caps are in a bear market already though" and asked Lakos if what he's saying is already priced in. "I think things are definitely getting priced in, but to me that's a worrying sign," Lakos responded, adding "all the returns this year are coming from basically 7 stocks."

Stephanie Link mentioned the strength of the consumer. Dubravko said "the lower 50% is getting squeezed."

Judge noted Dubravko's year-end price target is 4,200. "What if the Fed is done," Judge asked, wondering if the next move is actually a cut. Dubravko said "the Fed may be done" but the back end of the curve "keeps hiking for the Fed."

Stephanie asked Dubravko about a 2024 earnings prediction. He offered "230, with a downside risk."

Dubravko eventually admitted he doesn't necessarily have "high conviction" that the market's going lower, but as for 2024, "I just don't like the picture."



AMD, Zzzzzzzzzz


For those looking for optimism in this stock market, "November's the best month of the year traditionally, December second," Judge declared at the top of Tuesday's (10/31) Halftime Report before asking Josh Brown about Brown's buy of AMD.

Josh said AMD has been on his radar for "a long time," and he's waiting to see what Lisa Su says about AI. He conceded NVDA's lead but thinks AMD has the "best shot" to capture 25-30% of this market over 5 years.

Josh went on to explain how AMD is trying to capture AI share in "inference."

(The Fast Money crew spent the opening minutes of their program talking about AMD.)

Stephanie Link on Halftime said she "absolutely" thinks we'll have a year-end rally.

Jim Lebenthal said ... you've never heard this before ... the economy is better than it's getting credit for; he's looking forward to that Friday labor report. (At least nobody like Joe was getting buffaloed out of the QQQ by a buncha Fed bureaucrats.)



Joe predicts ‘the strategy’ of the JOET will continue to underperform


Well, here's a real vote of confidence.

Asked on Monday's (10/30) Halftime Report about his namesake ETF the JOET, Joe Terranova stated, "Long-only strategies are going to go through periods of underperformance" (which seems a bit of a cop-out), and Joe said that's what's happening to the JOET.

Joe said one reason is because the JOET is equally weighted (which sounds like another cop-out). But it was refreshing that Joe candidly suggested the "conditions" for outperforming "are not in place right now," so he actually thinks "the strategy" will "continue" to underperform.

Jim Lebenthal suggested the labor cost to GM might be $7 billion over 4 years but that GM's combustible engine business has "enormous" profitability.

Jim attributed GM's woeful stock to "slowing EV demand in America." Another way to put it would be, do they have any new products that people are excited about. Jim conceded he's getting impatient with the stock but said he's not selling.

Steve Weiss said the problem with intensive capex companies like GM is that "the margin's very var- very variable."

Jim sold HD because he sees "pressure" on the sector from rates.

Jim actually said with a straight face, "Cisco is the ultimate long-term hold." (Other times during the show, he talked about skating where the puck is going, not where it's been.)

Rick Rieder told Bob Pisani in the sponsored ETF Edge portion of the show that he thinks the Fed is "largely done," and while the long end could creep higher "I don't think we're goin' very far from these yield levels."

Joe a couple times stressed how importance it is that Fidelity Magellan doesn't own TSLA. Weiss didn't seem to think that angle was very important. Judge said "it does say something to me that their top 5 holdings are all megacap tech." Jim said that back in the day, Magellan was big enough where it could even be "defining" where the puck is going.

Weiss said he owns TSLA puts; "that stock's going to 150."




Tepper finally got a win; Judge and Weiss didn’t even mention it


Judge opened Monday's (10/30) Halftime Report asking Joe Terranova about the next rebalancing of the JOET what's the "most important" reason for the day's rally.

"Treasury refunding," Joe said.

Steve Weiss, who cranks up a new slogan about every 2 months, again stated "The die is pretty much cast" for a lower market.

Jim Lebenthal suggested the monthly stock market decline is a "delayed reaction to the debt-ceiling negotiation. I think this is the 4th quarter of 2011, again," Jim asserted.

Judge made some reference to Jim not bringing up air travel for a change. Jim said, "The TSA statistics are through the roof!"

Jim said he's sticking by his year-end 4,450 call.

Joe said he finds the stock market "kinda like the Jet-Giant game." Judge wondered if that means "we'll get more punts than anything else." Neither Joe nor Judge nor Weiss mentioned why Dave Tepper seems to be having so much trouble picking football coaches and picking No. 1 draft picks and winning football games.

Weiss claimed "consumers have depleted their savings" and is back with the old saw about how the "extended lag" between the time of rate hikes and their impact on the economy is taking effect (after he stopped talking about that angle during the summer rally).

Jim said he hasn't been "jabby" with Weiss recently because Weiss hasn't been saying "things that are wrong."

Jim suggested Weiss thinks the Fed will move past normalization, but Jim doesn't think they'll "shoot past normalization."

Jim called Weiss his "frenemy."

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman, like Joe, mentioned the refunding announcement and said it was "fine" this time and that "fine is good" and that the recent selloff just seemed "so overdone" and that the rally "only takes us back to Thursday at 11 a.m."




Your P.E. ratio is not a cause (cont’d)


We found it interesting on Thursday (10/26) when Brad Gerstner sounded so interested in stock multiples favorably compared P.E. ratios of META and NVDA with those of WMT and NKE.

Did he make it sound like these P.E. ratios are some kind of accomplishment? Or catalyst?

It seems like he was trying for the latter. But it's probably more like the former. There had been previously high expectations for NVDA, and those have been realized.

That's rear-view mirror.

We've implored the Halftime Report/Fast Money in the past to tell us what P.E. ratios mean. NOT how they're calculated. Even this page can figure that out.

Tell us why a panelist can tout one stock with a 25 multiple (such as NKE) and another with a 4 multiple (such as GM).

All we've been able to determine ... after decades, frankly, of high-intensity (snicker) research ... is that P.E. ratios are just an effect of something that's already happened, not a cause of something that might happen.

So there you go.



Karen looking to buy next week (a/k/a getting ‘exhausted’ looking at account statements)


Steve Weiss early on Friday's (10/27) Halftime Report said "The die is cast; the economy is going towards recession ... The risks outweigh the rewards."

Jenny Harrington curiously said that on the "human side" of owning tech stocks, "there's exhaustion" and "emotional exhaustion" and that "people are just exhausted owning these."

Kevin Simpson said "our call-writing has picked up actively over the past month."

Bryn Talkington said to expect this kind of rocky market "until bonds settle down."

Weiss called AAPL "overvalued." Kevin said he's been writing AAPL calls "left and right" for a few months.

Meanwhile, Judge said Barron's recommends "stop crying" about bonds and buy them instead.

Jenny first knocked the idea of anyone with a "very long time frame" buying bonds because "all you're getting is 4.9%," minus the inflation. But she said if you're "nervous about the market and it makes you really sick," then you "absolutely wanna buy bonds here." But she doesn't like the "blanket idea" of everyone buying bonds.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman said, as she always does, "I'm always, always long," so a week like this is "terrible." But, "I'm gonna be looking to buy things next week. Not sell."

Steve Grasso said, "QT is really tightening the market behind the scenes."



Selling LEH seems like it was probably a good idea (at any time)


Bryn Talkington and Kevin Simpson on Friday's (10/27) Halftime Report expressed amazement that Jamie Dimon hasn't previously sold JPM shares. Addressing the newly reported sale, Bryn said we don't know "what's behind it" but that Jamie always seems "glass half-empty" about "geopolitical risks."

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said Dimon "could have begun selling stock already" and "I don't love to see it," but "I wouldn't read that much into it."

Steve Weiss recounted when he was at Lehman telling employees when their stock vested to "sell it" because they're "overextended in Lehman." Then he quickly added, "So, and forget the thing went belly-up."

In perhaps the show's most provocative call, Jenny Harrington claimed that there's "opportunity" in some regional banks that have "really decent earnings."

But Weiss said "there's a cliff coming on in the refi" for mortgages owned by regional banks.

Jenny shrugged that if you "parse through" the regional bank pile, even good ones are getting sold off and that "the kinda cliché is to say oh office debt" but a lot of them don't have much exposure.

"It's not a cliché. It's fact," Weiss said, as Jenny continued to say certain regionals don't have much exposure.



When a trade is both a win and a loss (but not at the same time)


Jenny Harrington on Friday's (10/27) Halftime Report revisited her buys of WHR and SWK, which she announced way back on May 18 to heckling from Josh Brown.

WHR was 133 then, 102 now after hovering around 158 in July; SWK has gone from 83 to 82 but did break through 100 in early August before pulling back.

As for WHR, "I actually added to it," Jenny told Judge.

Judge asked Jenny if INTC has "seen the worst." Jenny, practically beaming, said yes and that she's "finally confident" about taking credit for this trade.

Judge asked Kevin Simpson if there's "doubt" about CVX's deal for HES going through. Kevin said he doesn't think it's so much doubt but "skepticism in how much that transaction will affect the bottom line," a point basically echoed by Bryn Talkington.

No surprise, MRK long Kevin Simpson agrees with the BMO upgrade. Jenny disagrees with BMY being downgraded. Bryn said RBLX would go to 37 "if rates just would settle down." Jenny made VFC her Final Trade and said it reports Monday; that oughta be interesting. Judge said Steve Weiss is "the only person rooting for both the Jets and the Giants this Sunday."

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso brought in the obesity drugs to his argument favoring KO over PEP.




Judge highlights the important parts of Brad’s letter to META in blue


Moments into Thursday's (10/26) Halftime Report, which was curiously held at the Englewood Cliffs site typically manned by Kelly Evans and Tyler Mathisen, Judge said they had "just scored an interview with Brad Gerstner."

It took a little time for that interview to come to fruition.

Once it did, Judge introduced Brad by referring to Brad's letter to META last year. Gerstner said, "I can't believe that was only 12 months ago."

Brad said Zuck and Musk "stand atop the heap of efficiency."

Brad also praised the "outstanding job" by Susan Li in her first year as CFO.

Brad said his letter last year was "one of several calls" to get META to stop the stupid spending make the company "fit."

Brad said META is trading at 15 times and compared it with WMT (23) and NKE (25); "that doesn't make any sense."

Brad wants the Fed to get the message of "enough is enough." He opined, "I think we're at the end of the rate-hiking cycle, though the market has yet to price that in."

Brad said NVDA is trading at the "same multiple" as WMT and NKE.

Brad pointed out that tech giants have seen "multiple compression" this year, not expansion.

Brad said GOOGL has a valuation that makes it "very interesting" and "very compelling," though he doesn't own it. But he said the risk is that other companies' AI competes for those search users. (This writer is long GOOGL.) Bill Baruch made GOOGL his Final Trade and mentioned 120 as the "line in the sand."




‘This is a heavy tape’


Early on the Englewood Cliffs version of the Halftime Report Thursday (10/26), Judge mentioned Joe Terranova (who wasn't on Thursday's show) referring to the "Magnificent 5" on Wednesday.

"Now it's the Magnificent 4 after Meta has a really good report," Judge cracked, stressing he was just talking "about the stock."

Jim Lebenthal said, "All stocks really are performing badly right now. This is a heavy tape. Folks, the sentiment out there stinks. ... It's interest rates."

He's right, it's a heavy tape. Our favorite seasonal theory, expressed by Larry Altman on the program in 2014, is that markets "usually" (not always, but usually) bottom around the 1st or 2nd week in October and March. This year, the October low appeared to be on the 3rd, at 4,216.45, but on the 23rd, we slumped to 4,189.22 and on Thursday hit 4,127.90. This year, March came through; October has been a challenge.

Jim, who always seems to have a rosy economic outlook, said CEOs can't be "ebullient" amid headlines about Middle East turmoil and Ukraine war and the "circus in the House of Representatives," but those headlines aren't more than a "temporary" pressure on markets, rather, what's happening in the stock market is "square on interest rates." (Actually, if Jim is referring to the "circus" of ousting a House speaker, we get that; if he's referring to the replacement process, it's actually not much different than the 2020 Democratic presidential primary scene.)

"It sounds like you're a little dismissive of the macro," Judge said. Jim referred to "real-time data like TSA travel account, I mean it's extraordinary (sic) high."

"That's not going to dictate what this economy as a whole does, because people are on airplanes," Judge countered. "You can't constantly go back to TSA numbers."

"I don't disagree with you ... I'm telling you, the labor market is the most important thing," Jim said.

Bill Baruch curiously suggested "I think the Fed is about to get a gift."

Noting Thursday's GDP, Bill said, "We're expecting 2% in Quarter 4," adding this observation that doesn't sound all that scientific: "Culturally, we've seen an evolution of how money is being spent," including "people going out to happy hours," but now we'll see "people hunker down for the holidays."



Wall Street investors have different goals than attorneys general who like financial settlements


On Thursday's (10/26) Halftime Report, Josh Brown said AWS is the "make or break stat" for Amazon.

"It's up a lot year to date," Brown pointed out.

He's right, although it's made that climb quietly, as no one on the show has talked much about it this year.

Judge and Jim Lebenthal tangled for minutes over whether Amazon's results from Web Services or Amazon's take on the consumer would be more important.

Karen Finerman on Fast Money Thursday said she's long AMZN though "it's not cheap, for sure."

Stephanie Link said, "I think all the FANG stocks are crowded."

Josh impressively summarized the business of LYV and said it "belongs at a hundred or higher" and called the current price "very cheap." (This writer has no position in LYV.)

Josh said AOS made a good quarter out of a tough housing market and said the stock should be on people's "radar."

On Wednesday's (10/25) Halftime, a quiet endeavor that for whatever reason featured Judge in Philadelphia at the Schwab RIA conference while panelists beamed in from pandemic-era home "studios," Jenny Harrington again bragged about owning META a year ago at 90.

Jenny did make a good point, that META is being sued by attorneys general supposedly because it's too "addictive" to young people, while a year ago, people were saying "Hey nobody wants it; nobody uses it."



It was a 1-for-8, not an 8-for-1


Just before Judge and Jim got into it on GM on Tuesday's (10/24) Halftime Report, Stephanie Link said GE is "humming."

Judge and Stephanie traded guesses about what the GE "split" was; Judge suggested "10 to 1" and Stephanie suggested "8 to 1" and then Judge said "something big to 1."

Stephanie was (sorta) right.

Meanwhile, Judge noted GM is down, "what else is new," directed at Jim Lebenthal.

Jim touted GM cash flow and asserted, "The stock's down because the UAW strike." Jim said GM was trading 4½ or 5 times before the strike; Jim said it was trading "more like 5½ to 6 times" and sometimes 7 a while back.

Jim knocked "people who are gonna say, like, oh, hey, you know, this has done nothing for a long time,'" and then invited Josh Brown to ask a question about it, then warned, "Everybody has a stock in their portfolio that has languished despite great, excellent reports. ... Just be careful about throwing stones."

Josh wondered, "Why would these P.E. ratios ever change?" and that if it's all about the UAW, why were these stocks "selling at 10 or 11 times earnings 10 years ago."

Jim said this reminds him of fall 2021 when people said "the same thing about energy."

Karen Finerman on Fast Money announced she has sold her GM stake. "Fatigue is probably the main thing," Karen explained, before offering her own take on the multiple.

"The only way they'll get a multiple for earnings is if they earn- they miss those earnings. Then they'll get a big multiple, however much the miss is." Karen also said GM's EV rollout seems to be "perennially pushed off."



Josh and Stephanie tangle over whether American Express or Discover is more relevant gauge of health of consumers


Stephanie Link tried touting AXP's loan growth gains on Tuesday's (10/24) Halftime, but Josh Brown wasn't letting it go, at least as a supposed window into the economy.

"That's the wrong people to look at though," Brown said. "It doesn't start with the wealthiest people that have platinum cards."

Stephanie said AXP is no longer "super duper high end."

Stephanie tossed in an "oh by the way" on manufacturing PMIs.

Josh said Discover clientele are in "worst shape overall than typically an AmEx user would be."

Judge cited Band of America data showing inflows into ETFs and used a funny voice to say, "For all of those who say, 'Well there's all these opportunities (that would be Jenny Harrington, who wasn't on Tuesday's show), you know it's a stock-picker's market and, under the surface, there's stocks and things you can do,' single stock investments suffered their biggest outflows since August. And I'm guessing the buying of the ETFs probably had something to do with the Q's."

"It's been a lousy investment environment," Jim Lebenthal opined. But he said the economy and profits are doing "a lot better than people have expected for most of the last 18 months."

Stephanie said the states' case against META doesn't change the "narrative."

Stephanie's not sure the 7% MMM dividend yield is "secure."



Despite an opening, no one takes up the subject of whether AMZN’s CEO is hearing footsteps


Josh Brown at the top of Tuesday's (10/24) Halftime Report said the S&P forward P.E. is 17.7, below the 5-year average of 18.7 and "pretty much in line" with the 10-year average.

Josh said earnings misses are being punished more heavily than earnings beats are being rewarded.

In one of the show's most interesting comments, Josh said AMZN has made a "marginal gain" from "not trying to get the packages delivered to you in 15 seconds anymore." And he said the AMZN CEO is "up against the wall."

Stephanie Link predicted a "chase" into stocks into year-end.

But Judge said Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio are "half a world away" in Saudi Arabia and see "increasing" (snicker) deficits and "elevated rates" and that Dimon is "cautious" about next year.

Josh said the 7- and 10-year Treasury is "extremely attractive."



Surprised Jim didn’t get in a bullish take on PARA


Judge on Tuesday's (10/24) Halftime Report asked Jim Lebenthal about CLF just as Jim knocked his own mike off. Jim gushed about free cash flow and said that it's "the green producer of steel."

Judge asked why CLF is down ytd.

Mike Mayo showed up to talk about what he always talks about, how the big banks are great stocks. (This writer is long FAS.) He said downward earnings revisions may be in the "8th inning."

Jim admitted BA is "tremendously disappointing over the last 2 months." Jim said it's trading like it was 3 years ago and stock sentiment is "absolutely terrible."




Joe suggests Judge is ‘carelessly’ making trading predictions


On Monday's (10/23) Halftime Report, amid a discussion of AAPL-China, Joe Terranova stated, "I'm a big believer that momentum within the market does matter."

"It does until it doesn't," Judge stressed, and we couldn't agree more with that statement.

That describes momentum trading perfectly.

Anyway, Judge stated, "Tesla's down 15% in a week." Joe said he acknowledges that but "I don't think that's a case for each and every stock."

Judge insisted "fundamentals can trump technicals" and noted AAPL being down 7 straight days; "if it's a good report, who cares about the fact that the technicals haven't looked great and there's been downside momentum in this stock. Because you know exactly what's gonna happen on the other side of that earnings report, if it's a positive report."

"You never know exactly what's gonna happen No. 1, so, don't- don't- don't carelessly make that statement when it comes to trading," Joe said.

"You know exactly what I mean," Judge said.

"You said it!" Joe said.

"You know exactly what I mean," Judge repeated.

Joe said AAPL is "trading in my opinion based off of technicals." Joe suggested that the report can be "the determination factor on where the next move is for those technicals," which is a clever way of saying that yes, maybe fundamentals are more important.

Judge asked about the "bad" non-momentum of Big Tech entering 2023, and then "what happened when the AI stuff came- happened. What happened."

Joe said you had to "quickly acknowledge that momentum had reversed." Joe said the new momentum "did stay in place for the better part of 7 months."

Joe at one point chuckled to Judge, "I guess you're in Jimmy Lebenthal's camp last week where we (sic) basically said we don't look at charts."

Judge at one point mentioned something Dave Tepper told him "on the record, you know, a few weeks back"; apparently David hasn't told Judge when the Panthers/Frank Reich are going to win their first game. (We're thinking, this weekend.)




Joe, Weiss disagree on whether NFLX earnings report is representative of market reax


Judge on Monday's (10/23) Halftime Report couldn't help but ask Joe Terranova yet again about unloading the QQQ. (It's called "trying to time the market" or "being buffaloed by the Fed.")

Joe first observed, "And that's quality," for those who weren't aware.

Joe suggested he might've been "early" on that trade and went on to say, "the potential is there for this quarter to be a good quarter."

"When you're early, trading, you're wrong. I mean that's, that's just what it is," Joe continued, suggesting he might be "right about the overall direction."

Judge noted how TSLA is doing. Steve Weiss said his biggest regret about that is that he got stopped out of his TSLA short. "I still think that's overvalued by at least a double," Weiss said, before bringing up his "permanent compounders" thing again.

Soon after, Joe and Weiss got tangled up in a little donnybrook over tech earnings.

Joe contended, "You are not getting rewarded for good earnings." Weiss countered, "Netflix has held their pop, right."

Joe said, "That's 1 stock in isolation of the 25% of the S&P that's reporting."

Weiss said, "How many have reported? Of the big-cap techs? 1."

Joe insisted "the negative impact of Tesla" is a bigger deal than Netflix's report.

Joe also stated, "Let's be careful with this Foxconn news" because, Joe said, the founder has entered the Taiwan presidential election. Weiss brought up one of his favorite themes, whether China would say "I'm gonna invade Taiwan at some point" and how all kinds of entities have operations in China.




Weiss’ bitcoin trade gaining enough steam that it might join Call of the Year race


Right after the A Block on Monday's (10/23) Halftime Report, Judge demanded Joe Terranova explain why he sold EQT. Joe said "there's 2 reasons" (Zzzzzz), one is that nat gas volatility increases during this season (translation: it's probably going lower) and also he wanted to "offset" his unhappy feeling (snicker) from bailing on the QQQ by ringing the register.

Both CVX and HES are in the JOET. Joe said the move is reflective of the "dominance" of American oil giants. (We were surprised that Joe didn't actually say that "Hess is tethered to the spot price of oil.")

Addressing the downgrades of RF, Liz "Take a Stand" Young said these reports won't "shock" anyone, however, as far as regional bank stress goes, "this isn't over."

Joe said if you're interested in getting into regional banks (snicker), don't buy an individual bank, rather "your first move" is into the ETF.

Steve Weiss' Final Trade again was bitcoin; he's on a hot streak there.



Boy, Bill really moved the market


Liz Young, who generally speaks only in sectors (Zzzzzz), said on Monday's (10/23) Halftime Report that the stock market is in a "whipsaw environment" in which the market's debating if we're "OK with the 10-year going down, or OK with the 10-year going up."

Judge said people he spoke to were saying that "Bill Ackman moved the market (snicker) today."

Joe Terranova stated, "I think it's a great trade by Bill."

Steve Weiss opined that "what you're seeing are algos drive (sic not 'driving') the market up," and "no fundamental investors" are going to buy stocks here.

Weiss said if he did a "read-through" of Bill's statement, he thinks Bill is saying "Don't put money into equities." (Yeah, we're sure Bill would agree that that's what he really was saying.)

Judge said we can "move away from Ackman, you know, the person for a moment and just talk about the idea."

Weiss claimed, "With free money being around 15 years, people just aren't paying attention."



Fed speakers buffaloed Joe out of the QQQ


Friday's (10/20) Halftime Report included panelists at Post 9, but it was Joe Terranova, summoned from his pandemic-era home office, who made the early headlines.

Judge said he was "so surprised" to learn Joe sold the QQQ. Judge told Joe, "You must have turned bearish on the- on the overall market then between now and the end of the year. ... Explain."

"No I wouldn't- I wouldn't say that I've turned bullish on the remainder of the year-" Joe started to say.

"Bearish. Bearish. Bearish," Judge corrected.

"Bearish, rather, bearish. It's- Scott it's one of those days," Joe said. "Um, so I wouldn't say that I- I've turned bearish on the remainder of the year. Um, I- I still believe that if in fact we're gonna see a 4th-quarter rally, it's gonna come from technology and communication services."

Joe explained that he was in QQQ "around 368, but here's where I ran into a problem ... I tried to defend that position" ... and now we've got a "new dynamic from the Federal Reserve which seems as though they don't want to quit."

Judge wondered if Joe and others were doing a "misread of sorts of Powell." Judge said Jay wasn't "overly hawkish" but "he just wasn't as explicitly dovish as some had portrayed the prior speakers leading into Powell."

Then Judge, using a funny voice in the first portion of this quote, indicated those Fed folks were saying, "'Well, the bond market's done all the work for us so we don't have to do anything, we can just sit tight,' that was pretty much what the other speakers have said."

"This is probably the bottom" for the QQQ, Joe lamented, because he "liquidated."

Meanwhile, "The big thing is rates," said Josh Brown.

Kevin Simpson offered, "I think we're talking about a year at least where we're gonna have rates higher."

Shannon Saccocia seems to think we're "putting Fedspeak behind us."



Weiss: Traders have to be ‘crazy’ to be long going into this weekend


Judge and Steve Weiss tangled over the significance of Silicon Valley Bank during Friday's (10/20) Halftime Report.

Judge stated that the problem for the Fed is, "There's too much demand." But, "They can't afford to have a credit event."

Weiss contended that SVB's situation was "blown way out of proportion in terms of its relevance to the financial system. We're not gonna have a credit event in the financial system," though there could be something "isolated."

Judge countered that "SVB was but a small snowball which started to roll downhill, which became a giant snowball because it spread to the-"

"That's where we disagree," Weiss said.

"What about- what happened to First Republic. Where's that?" Judge said.

"First Republic was in the same trade as SVB," Weiss said.

"If the Fed didn't step in, you think everything would've just been, been just fine?" Judge demanded.

"I don't think it would've been a major credit event. Absolutely not. We're gonna have to disagree on that," Weiss said.

Maybe the final tape on Friday indicates he was right; Weiss stated, "If you're a trader, how crazy do you have to be, you know, how ignorant of risk management do you have to be to go into this weekend long with what's happening in the Middle East."



Weiss would ‘buy more’ bitcoin


Kevin Simpson, who hasn't been on the Halftime Report for a bit, said Friday (10/20) at Post 9 that he likes SLB and calls the selloff "certainly an opportunity."

Steve Weiss asked Kevin how this is an "opportunity" in a market that's "tenuous at best, at very best."

"I like stocks to go higher," Simpson explained.

Kevin also bought CAT; he'd been looking for a pullback. He's got DE too. And he bought "oversold" KO and made a reference to the recent "obesity completely cured" mindset. He sold LMT because of "horrible" price action.

Judge asked Josh Brown if he owned SLB "not that long ago." Josh said, "Like 5 years ago."

Josh and Weiss both touted the UBER upgrade; Brown said "it's mispriced and going higher." (This writer is long UBER.)

Rather than own individual fast food players, Brown prefers TOST.

Kevin Simpson touted V; Weiss said it's a great company but hasn't been a great stock. Simpson said it's up 12% this year; Weiss said "the market's up 20."

Simpson and Weiss agreed on UPS being a good stock, though Simpson said he loves it while Weiss merely said it's "OK."

"I don't believe in the use case for bitcoin," Weiss reaffirmed at the end of the show. But "I would buy more," because he thinks it keeps going higher in wake of the court ruling.

Brown said Morgan Stanley surveyed 2,000 people with student loans and that "34% told Morgan Stanley, they can't make any payment at all."




Yeah, but Bob Weir doesn’t go to Nick Timiraos to auction guitars (a/k/a We might raise, we might not raise, etc.)


Thursday's (10/19) Halftime Report was supposed to open with Steve Liesman reading the embargoed prepared remarks of Jay Powell (it did) and then, shortly after Steve was done presenting those remarks, cut away to Powell's appearance at the New York Economic Club for a live broadcast of the Q&A.

But protesters disrupted Powell's speech, so Steve, plus guest host Frank Holland's Post 9 Halftime crew, had to fill about 20 minutes opining on Powell's comments and the Federal Reserve in general before the Q&A could begin and continue through the end of the show. (The odd thing was, the Q&A ended honestly at a more perfect show transition point to The Exchange around 1 p.m. that even most CNBC hosts can't pull off.)

Frank asked Steve whether Powell's remarks lean dovish or hawkish. Steve got out of that jam by stating the speech "leans very neutral."

Joe Terranova said when Steve was speaking, Joe was only focusing on the 10-year yield. Joe said market speculation is "overwhelmingly short Treasurys."

Jenny Harrington thinks the "neutralness" is "where we are."

Jim Lebenthal bluntly stated that Powell's remarks were "kind of a muddle."

Jim said he's "sorry to bring up a competing news outlet" and that "Steve does a fantastic job," but "when the Fed wants to make sure there are no surprises, it will go to Nick Timiraos."

Steve deadpanned, "I'm not insulted by what Jim said, much, no problem with that ... no worries Jim, I'll- we'll talk later." Steve explained that he reads the remarks as indicating the economy hasn't weakened enough to keep the Fed at bay.

On Fast Money, Steve Grasso said "QT is the elephant in the room" and that "Powell never speaks about QT."



Karen: NFLX is ‘pulling away from the streaming pack’ (for those who might’ve thought otherwise)


Wednesday's (10/18) afterhours earnings reports and subsequent CNBC commentary pretty much verified the point made often on this page that NFLX is a giant and all other streamers are basically ... worthless. (This writer has no position in NFLX.)

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said NFLX is "just really pulling away from the streaming pack." Guy Adami agreed and said if DIS bounces on this report, "it's probably somewhat misguided."

Netflix ace Rich Greenfield said it feels like NFLX is "running away from the pack" and that "everybody else is literally (sic) running for cover."

Asked about who could be runner-up in the streaming world, Rich offered DIS (snicker). Our question for Rich is, wouldn't DIS be better off folding this quagmire of a business division and simply licensing the content to NFLX or AAPL. No one asked Rich that question, but he did pose a question himself ("What exactly is Disney trying to create?") while basically hinting that Iger will overpay for (who cares) Hulu.



Weiss is bearish; Jim is defending airlines (sounds like all of 2022 or beginning of 2023)


"Today's an ugly reversal. Today is not a day for the bulls," Joe Terranova said at the top of Wednesday's (10/18) Halftime Report, which featured Judge back at Post 9 after his trip to Beverly Hills.

Joe called the 10-year yield a "challenge" and "problem" for the stock market.

Jim Lebenthal suggested markets were "on edge" because of "the Middle East." But Judge said "rate creep" will weigh on sentiment.

Steve Liesman mentioned Waller's remarks and indicated the Fed will remain patient, just what everyone wants to hear.



Judge didn’t bring back a whole lot of scoops from his Beverly Hills trip


In a discussion of (often) hot tech stocks on Wednesday's (10/18) Halftime Report, Bryn Talkington suggested TSLA and its margins can be volatile in the near term; she wants to see what the company is "doing on the AI front (snicker)."

Joe Terranova opined that TSLA "is more about price momentum" than the fundamentals.

Steve Weiss said of TSLA, "I just wouldn't own it here, plain and simple." Judge and Weiss quibbled over Tesla's charging network, as Weiss mentioned Volkswagen's and Judge scoffed, "Who's talkin' about that?"

Judge told Bryn "there's literally (sic) (snicker) no margin for error" with NVDA. Bryn noted that the 200-day for NVDA is "all the way down at 340." Bryn predicted people who got into NVDA later this year will be "shaken out."

NVDA long Jim Lebenthal protested, "If you want these sorts of returns, you have to put up with volatility."

Joe said he's been advocating for AVGO as a "reasonable valuation alternative" to NVDA. (Yes, because P.E. ratio determines whether a stock is going up or down, right Joe?)



Airlines might indeed be a great trade/investment, but Jim hasn’t identified when/why


On Wednesday's (10/18) rerun of a Halftime Report episode, Jim Lebenthal said airlines are "very profitable companies" and the stock slides this week are because of Middle East news reports. (This writer has no position in airline stocks.)

Judge countered that "Maybe it's false hope," citing airlines' stock performance over the last 3 months.

Judge added that Bryn Talkington calls airlines "destroyers of wealth."

Jim said he's "not a big fan" of evaluating stocks on their prior returns, as Bryn was doing. Judge said "I was gonna agree with you" about the past-performance-is-not-indicative thing, but then Judge said, when it comes to airlines, "it actually is! indicative of future returns."

Jim said tech "darlings" were "dogs" last year, now look at them. Steve Weiss told Jim that he should look for "permanent compounders" such as UNH. "You're lookin' in a rear-view mirror," Jim shrugged. Weiss said airlines should trade at mid-single-digit multiples. Jim said airlines have been paying down debt. Weiss insisted "past is prologue."

Later in the show, Judge said Jim was "very excited" about Bryn having to defend RBLX. Bryn praised RBLX's back-to-office edict and said "they continue to do better and better" but admitted "there's no e" in the P.E. ratio.



Weiss actually says to buy bitcoin


Judge on Wednesday's (10/18) Halftime Report read comments from James Gorman saying M&A and underwriting will "explode" as soon as the Fed indicates it has stopped hiking.

Steve Weiss shrugged off the comment because he said a bank CEO has to be an "optimist."

Jim Lebenthal said he had to disagree with Weiss on the impact of rates staying higher; "I think the Fed's close to done." Jim said James Gorman is "spot on."

Bryn Talkington sold GS, saying she doesn't see a "catalyst" to drive the stock but rather "a lot of headwinds in general."

Weiss sees "nothing but headwinds" for big banks and no "tailwinds." He said MS is on his "radar" but he's got "time to get in."

Joe Terranova said JB Hunt earnings were "worse than awful."

Asked about UBER on Grade My Trade (Judge admitted "we haven't done this in a while"), Weiss said it's fine for the long term but "not a great stock for this environment." (This writer is long UBER.) Bryn gave herself and a viewer an F for owning DVN.

Weiss' Final Trade curiously was bitcoin; he said "there never will be a use case," but there's a "scarcity" with ETFs looming.



Brian Moynihan apparently said something profound


Just as this page predicted (see below), West Coast Judge wasn't available to host Tuesday's (10/17) Halftime Report, so it was Courtney Reagan who got the nod (in fairness, this page did predict it would be Frank or Dom). (Courtney had to zip over to the Nasdaq to guest-helm Fast Money later.)

Amy Raskin said there are signs NVDA is "weakening" and having owned it for 10 years (of course, the stock doesn't care how long someone has owned it), she's been trimming. Amy suggested it could have a "peak multiple" on "peak earnings."

NVDA long Jim Lebenthal explained, "My thesis was not- on Nvidia was not predicated on sales to China." Jim asserted that the news of NVDA having a "potential" China problem is 6-9 months old.

Brenda Vingiello would be more likely to add to NVDA than be trimming.

Joe Terranova, back at Post 9 instead of at his pandemic-era "office," said he owns chip names through an equal-weight strategy. Joe said the "real story" is the "remarkable resiliency" in the overall market on the heels of this semiconductor news.

Kristina Partsinevelos, who got significant air time at the top of the show, said Joe's right about how there's not a "blanket restriction" on chips and China. "The U.S. is being pretty vague right now," Kristina explained.

Kristina said VMW was down on rumors that the AVGO takeover could be derailed by "Chinese regulators." Kristina said that could be "retaliation" from China, or just a "rumor."

Steve Liesman said basically no one thinks the Fed will hike in November, but some think they may hike in December or even January.

Jim revealed, "I am still bullish." But, "I do worry about the regional bank system." Steve said it's fine for regional banks to "slow down" lending a bit; "it's not fine if there's a blowup."

Amy Raskin said Brian Moynihan's comments "were very profound and very important, saying spending is slowing."

Brenda Vingiello said JNJ will have a "talc overhang ... for a few more quarters."

Amy Raskin has a "core position" in NKE despite trimming early in the year. Amy said NKE is "well-positioned" to go DTC.

Courtney Reagan asked Joe about the JOET's ownership of UAL. Like he always says, Joe said that a determination on the stock will be made at the end of the month.

Joe urged Jim to "talk about" his airline stocks. Jim chuckled to Joe, "You have a future in politics." (Hmmm, well, MCC challenged AOC, so maybe Joe ...) Jim said "this cycle is far from over," and he was referring to airline booking strength, not the stocks.

Brenda Vingiello mentioned Ozempic (which almost went the entire show without a mention) in offering MDLZ as a Final Trade.

Jim actually mentioned Grade My Trade. It seems like that feature has been quietly dwindling away.

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said Wyndham is basically saying about the Choice offer, "Pay us more, and we'll do it."




Many anchors travel to global
hot spots; Judge goes to ...
Beverly Hills


Judge opened Monday's (10/16) Halftime Report in Beverly Hills at the CAIS Alternative Investment Summit (which didn't look like it was as much fun as Future Proof), one of what must be about a half-dozen West Coast trips this year (so much for Weiss' and others' contention during the pandemic that there wasn't going to be any more business travel and that everyone will just use Zoom), which often knock Judge out of the action for at least a day to return, so expect Frank Holland or Dom Chu on Tuesday.

Anyway, Judge opened demanding Rob Sechan explain whether we're "set up" for a Q4 rally or not.

"I think It's possible," Sechan said, really going out on a limb. (#answerthequestion,Rob)

Rob said if stocks do rally to July's levels, then valuation becomes a concern.

Rob said that over the last 2 years, "Markets haven't gone anywhere," nor have they gone anywhere since June. So you have to be "a lot more selective."

Josh Brown said he didn't intend to start off disagreeing with Rob, but Brown doesn't see valuations as a "problem." Rather, Brown said the potential market problems would be a "rate spike" or "commodity spike."

Brown said a VIX of 17 in this environment is "absolutely remarkable."

One of the casualties of Judge's trip is the fact no one's at Post 9, which means panelists such as Joe Terranova were back in their stale pandemic-era home TV fixtures.

Referring to stock market giants, "It's rare that leadership would change this late in the year," Joe offered, from his pandemic-era office.

Joe said he likes the "entire dynamic of how we're set up here today."

In his best question of the day, Judge asked Rob Sechan, "Why does money keep going in, into the megacap names."

"Because they're delivering on earnings- the earnings growth!" Rob chuckled. But Judge said "The prevailing thought in many corners is, don't make it harder than it has to be."

Judge said Jonathan Krinsky, unlike some with rosy outlooks, is saying it's "just a matter of time until winners succumb (snicker)."

Rob eventually said "we're set up for a modest run" that will only get "maybe back to the July highs."

Shannon Saccocia opened by mentioning the "oscillation" (snicker).




Cathie Wood: ‘It does seem like the consumer is starting to give way here’


The much-anticipated Cathie Wood interview on Monday's (10/16) Halftime Report was initially conducted by Bob Pisani during ETF Edge; Bob's mike wasn't working for his opening sentence, creating a brief Shields & Yarnell routine.

Cathie, an extremely elegant Wall Street figure who looked striking on Monday, said "hopes are rising" for a bitcoin ETF approval because SEC communications have indicated a "change of behavior."

Bob said ARKK is up 20% and has been "outperforming the S&P" despite having outflows. Cathie said "there are a couple of things going on."

Cathie said in late '20/early '21, "the flows were enormous into our funds" and "I was uncomfortable at the time, uh, uh, because we thought there was a lot of momentum, uh, chasing going on. ... This is sort of the flip side of that. Uh, we're feeling much more comfortable right now."

Cathie predicted bonds will rally "at some point."

Bob actually called Judge "Scott Cohn" (he's semi-retired now) (except for the state ranking thing) and didn't correct himself. Judge asked if Cathie doesn't believe in a higher-for-longer rate outlook. "I don't," Cathie said. "It does seem like the consumer is starting to give way here."

Judge asked Cathie "do you regret" selling NVDA. Judge said Cathie called it "really expensive" but Judge said the forward P.E. is "literally half" that of TSLA.

"This is portfolio management," Cathie said (it's really not, but whatever), asserting that "upside surprises" for TSLA over 5 years are going to be "substantially more" than for NVDA.

Cathie observed, "ChatGPT could be the best thing that ever happened to Google ... or it could be the worst thing."



Joe links LULU to GLP-1


CAIS honcho Matt Brown told Judge in Beverly Hills during Monday's (10/16) Halftime Report that instead of 60/40 portfolios, we're seeing a "rise" in the "3-dimensional portfolio" that goes 50/30/20 in which the 20 of course is alternative investments.

(Judge said they're talking about "hedge funds ... private credit ... private equity" when he should've just said "1952 Mickey Mantle cards.") (We think those are taxed at 28%, which probably frightens a lot of people away, even though they seem to go up about a hundred percent a year, but whatever.)

Giving Matt Brown a chance to talk about the services that CAIS provides, Rob Sechan said CAIS deals with a lot of "boutique-y" RIA shops and that there's "huge selection risk in the, in the alts space."

Michael Nathanson, also in Beverly Hills, said he'd be "hesitant" to say 60/40 is "dead" but that it's "certainly evolving."

Joe Terranova said viewers need to think about LULU in a "nuanced way" (no, not about being a "footwear company") in that it's "benefiting from the GLP-1 weight loss drugs," yet another new angle in the weight-loss-drug story.




Weiss exits JUST,
blasts Martin Whittaker


Judge on Friday's (10/13) Halftime ran into confusion about Steve Weiss' positioning in Goldman Sachs.

Judge initially said he had on his sheet that Weiss owned BAC and GS. "But then something else I have says you sold Goldman Sachs."

"No I cut it back," Weiss explained.

Moments later, Judge admitted, "I read my sheet wrong. You- Goldman- The thing you sold relative to Goldman was the Goldman Sachs JUST U.S. large equity ETF. The JUST. Tell our viewers about that."

"I sat on the advisory board," Weiss said, explaining that JUST was created by Paul Tudor Jones "to drive equality in the workplace and, and, adjust the capitalist environment." Weiss said he "stepped off" the investment advisory board of JUST on Friday "because of what's happened in the Middle East. This is a point you have to take a stand. And, Just Capital in my view has become politicized by supporting, uh, Black Lives Matter, which supports the PLO. So they've strayed from their mission in my view. So I'm no longer supportive of it. They've been completely silent. I exchanged emails with, with Martin Whittaker, one of the founders with Paul Tudor Jones, today, and he said, his exact words were, 'Uh, I don't think that we could drive the dialogue by saying anything.' Are you out of your mind? Are you kidding me? Now's the time where you say something. ... This is a time to take a stand. And, he is not taking a stand, and their mission has become blurred and sidetracked. So, I resigned from the advisory board today, and I sold the shares. Period."

"OK. All right. Um, well thank you for updating that," Judge said.



Jim has ‘faith’ in David Calhoun


Jim Lebenthal and Steve Weiss argued over BA on Friday's (10/13) Halftime, with Jim making the same argument he always does, which goes basically like, 2 steps forward and 1 step back, but the maintenance problem is going to be solved and just wait till they start raining cash with deliveries.

"Over the last year and a half, I have learned to trust this management," Jim actually said with a straight face, adding he has "faith" in David Calhoun.

Weiss wondered, "When do you say no más ... Don't forget, he was visible on the board when the whole debacle happened."

Jim then claimed, as though he believes it, that "industry insiders" tell him "this is a culture problem that goes back to the acquisition of McDonnell Douglas in 1999. ... It takes years to turn it around ... He is turning it around."

Weiss correctly said that argument "doesn't hold water" because the stock did "tremendously well" until the Max tragedies.

Joe Terranova noted the stock's in the same place as a year ago. Jim insisted BA is "delivering planes." Judge then took up Joe's comment and made a statement: "Who cares if they're delivering planes in and of itself if the stock price isn't delivering for you." Judge lumped in automakers and airlines. Jim invoked the "long-term investor" defense and concluded with "cash flows."



Judge quickly grows weary of Weiss and Jim’s hectoring


Friday's (10/13) Halftime Report brought together Jim Lebenthal and Steve Weiss for a few debates, starting at the top of the show.

"Inflation is indeed a little stickier than expected," Jim said, but he doesn't think it's "fatal" for stocks.

Jim noted that next year is an "election year"; Jim asserted that Fed officials will be "hard-pressed" to create a recession that would be "necessary" to get inflation to 2%.

Weiss said, "Even if rates come down a little bit, it doesn't matter: The economy is going into recession."

Well, Jim has a better point there. But if there is a recession next year and Joe Biden is campaigning against ... hoo boy ...

Weiss was going to badger Jim a little bit at that point, but Judge told Weiss, "Dude, just frickin' go, man ... stop with the stupid comments and jokes, just make your point. C'mon man, seriously." It must've worked, because Weiss and Jim cut the b.s. to such an extent they were practically having a formal argument over BA.

Weiss suggested there are "risks" from the Middle East that could send oil to 150.

But Weiss said "I understand being bullish. I'm not advocating selling everything."



Joe eventually backs in to a market call


Early on Friday's (10/13) Halftime Report, after Jim Lebenthal (bullish) and Steve Weiss (bearish) had expressed market views, Joe Terranova embarked on a speech, offering, "Positioning is coalescing around Steve's bias."

But then Joe said, "I think, the 4th quarter's gonna be a strong one."

Then, we got the ol' rate-hikes-are-just-beginning-to-be-felt argument as Joe stated, "The lag effect of what the Federal Reserve has done in my opinion is already beginning to take hold within the market."

But then Judge said he didn't want it to get "buried" that Joe said the 4th quarter will be strong. Joe cited "historic highs in terms of short positioning" in S&P futures as why Q4 figures to be strong.

Bryn Talkington first said the "ingredients" aren't there to get an all-time high this year as Joe interjected that "we're not goin' to an all-time high." But Bryn said "quite a few" are calling for that. (We haven't heard anyone on the show say it.)

Bryn conceded "you definitely have the seasonality." She does think it's a "lower probability" we go into recession, citing fiscal stimulus.

Bryn said the Fed might be done raising rates, but the market may not be done, a point Judge harped on.

Jim said the 10-year being at either 4.85% or 5.25% isn't a "systemic fatal flaw" that will short-circuit a stock rally. Bryn said, "The issue is the last 13 years at zero."



Bill suggests PXD deal could ‘sort of’ fall apart


Bill Baruch, appearing remotely on Friday's (10/13) Halftime Report, bought SHEL and sold PXD. Bill said the latter could have a "10 or 15% drop you know just because the deal sort of falls apart."

Bill also got back into AMD as part of the "AI catch-up trade."

Jim Lebenthal said "at some point" the UAW strike will be settled.

Judge launched into a (sleepy) debate in which he said Joe Terranova is long DHI and LEN and Steve Weiss is short ITB. Joe argued that the "overall macro environment" hurt the stocks. Weiss said he's also short the XHB, which he noted is "really a retail index." Weiss said he agrees with the supply problem but that mortgage applications have taken a "nosedive" and that homebuilder stocks are basically just proxies for rates.

Weiss brought up Ozempic in the UNH discussion. Weiss said UNH is a "permanent compounder." His Final Trade was HUM, which he said has many of the same tailwinds.

Jim said VRTX has "a lot of shots on goals- goal coming up, and some of them are gonna hit the net."

Joe said ISRG has "a tremendous amount of tailwinds behind it." But Joe said biotech has been awful this year, and that's an issue.

Judge promised Cathie Wood on Monday.



Joe talks with Larry Altman, notes the ARKK fund is ‘unfortunately’ down


The most important comment in the Halftime/Closing Bell/Fast Money sphere in a few weeks came in the form of a revelation on Thursday's (10/12) Closing Bell from Joe Terranova.

Joe told Judge, "I had a conversation with Larry Altman, who you know Scott," about the Treasury auction and when they could ever remember "that type of a catalyst from a (sic) auction on the equity market overall."

Yes, Judge indeed knows Larry; for some reason, Judge never brings up that in 2014, Larry told Halftime viewers when markets typically bottom, a sensational blueprint that appears to be deadly accurate twice this year, as it tends to be in most years.

Joe continued on Closing Bell, "It sets up November 1st to be arguably the most important business day of 2023," which seems like a bit of hyperbole.

Joe on Closing Bell cited everything that was down, including unprofitable tech, DOCU, TOST and "unfortunately Cathie Wood's ARKK fund."



Judge unable to get Stephanie to declare boycotts a big problem for TGT


Stephanie Link on Thursday's (10/12) Halftime Report said TGT has made progress on "inventory issues."

Stephanie shrugged offf Judge's suggestion of a "boycott" impact on TGT, which Judge actually suggested the company maybe "doesn't recover" from, "period. End of story."

Stephanie said boycotts have "died down a bit" and she's more concerned about theft.

Judge persisted that if you have a "cohort" of people who won't shop there, "there's very little you can do to reverse that," and he's not sure that story has "fully played out."

Judge first mentioned Brian "Moynihan," then corrected to "Cornell." Stephanie said traffic and transactions "can improve" and said the company can "right-size the inventory." But Stephanie said maybe it doesn't get back to previous multiple.



It’s basically a Fast Fire, but whatever


Judge on Thursday's (10/12) Halftime launched an intriguing feature to correspond with "1 year since the market bottom," asking panelists to defend positions in some bad stocks.

Judge started asking Jim Lebenthal about a rather obscure name (to the point we don't recall ever hearing it on the show), MP.

Jim said "I didn't buy it a year ago" but conceded it's down since he bought it.

Even so, "you hang onto this," Jim declared, calling it a "3-year story."

It's an interesting stock. (This writer has no position in MP.) Seems like it may be nearing a multi-year low but like any commodity stock, is always capable of taking off.

Meanwhile, Jim called PARA "a mangy, flea-ridden dog" and admitted to Judge his thesis on the stock was "blown out of the water."

Still ... as always ... Jim insisted PARA is trading "way below what a 3rd-party company would, would pay for it in a private market transaction." (First, the thesis was all these subs; then it became buyout target because everyone wants to overpay like Iger did for Fox.) Jim said consolidation is necessary in this industry and PARA is an "obvious choice" but consolidation hasn't happened because of the strikes.

"This is not the right price to sell it," Jim concluded.

Moving on, Judge said MMM is down 18% in the past 12 months. Stephanie Link lukewarmly said she still likes MMM but that it requires "patience."

Judge also said CVS is down 19% from the year-ago bottom. Jason Snipe said it's actually down 23% ytd. But he said it's slightly up in the last 3 months. Jason says he's still holding and thinks the market has "mispriced" the stock this year.

Judge's chart showed the big winners since the October 2022 low as NVDA up 311%, RIG up 170%, META up 157% and GE up 123%.



Judge thinks Jim maybe is ‘too quick’ to declare Goldilocks


Judge opened Thursday's (10/12) Halftime Report telling Shannon Saccocia it seems like a "push-pull" in the stock market.

Shannon said "there's an oscillation" (snicker).

Jason Snipe offered that "We're heading into a new normal" of interest rates. He's leaning "slightly bullish" for this quarter.

Judge suggested to Jim Lebenthal that maybe "normal for longer" is the right market description.

Jim, who said nothing about a "face-ripping" Q4 rally in this program, pointed out that only tech was lifting the S&P and that small caps were having "not a good day" because of a "bad CPI report." But Jim stressed that "the consumer is employed" going into the holiday season and income is going up.

Jim concluded, "In a tie, the bulls win."

Judge wondered if Jim is "too quick to try and latch onto a Goldilocks narrative," because inflation "may be too sticky for the Fed."

Jim conceded he felt better last Friday than he did on this Thursday, but the CPI "doesn't upset my bullish sentiment." In fact, Jim said PPI is "so much more below where CPI is." Jim also said "Atlanta Fled (sic, corrected)" at one point.

Stephanie Link, appearing remotely (living room/pandemic era), said, "We can handle the rates, uh, and that's where the bears were wrong."

Stephanie Link mentioned "all of the onshoring."

Jason Snipe sold BAC. Jim said "Don't be scared" by the amount of banks' loan-loss reserves because they're tied to recession concerns.

Judge pointed out that "one of the biggest sales pitches" for banks is "always" that they're "trading below book value."

Jim said DAL is trading on the "presumption" of a recession and that Ed Bastian says "Demand is pretty darn good."

Judge said "Stock's down 26% in 3 months." Jim conceded "it's very frustrating." Jim said international travel is above pre-pandemic levels. Jim indicated he would start thinking he's wrong on airlines if the recession risk ramped up.

Judge asked Jason Snipe about slow subs for NFLX's ad tier. Jason asserted there's "so much upside potential there" in the ad tier, as well as the password-sharing crackdown.

Judge said Jefferies made a "big cut" in its NFLX target from 520 to 445. Jason said a lot of headwinds are priced in. Jason still likes UNH and called it a "mainstay" for his portfolio.



Fast Money spends 20 minutes on Ozempic et al without offering any trades (unless you count Guy Adami saying MDT ‘swung way too far’ or Karen saying LLY is ‘a bit frothy’)


In the category of missed opportunities/called 3rd strikes, Wednesday's (10/11) Halftime Report waited until the end to take up Ozempic and the shock waves in pharma stocks, and the 5 p.m. Fast Money crew was more interested in NVDA than any pharma stocks.

Joe Terranova on Halftime said the presence of Ozempic is causing medical-device stocks to "implode." Stephanie Link at least said she'd buy ZBH on weakness.

In other matters, Joe did mention the "Roaring '20 (sic "20" not "20s") mentality," the first time we've heard Roaring '20s (or something close) in months, maybe all year.

As for the economy, Stephanie Link said, "Some of the Fed members are a little bit more dovish, right."

"I don't know if they're dovish. Maybe they're less hawkish," Judge chuckled.

Joe said of the Fed, "I think they pause."

Joe said he agrees with Barclays that a "satisfactory" earnings season is good enough. But Joe's concerned about being "front-loaded (snicker) with earnings."

Joe complained that momentum is "overwhelmingly red" for the "awful" airlines.

Liz Young, in stunning new hairstyle, said consumers have "tapped out" their travel budgets and the bull case for airlines has "completely played out."

Joe said he's "a little puzzled" why PDX is trading below the buyout price, which maybe suggests the market thinks it doesn't get done.

Joe said it's "somewhat surprising" that Birkenstock demand was "below the range."

Stephanie added to MS, which Joe sold about a week ago with BAC (for those keeping score; we weren't, for those particular stocks).

Joe said he likes Stephanie's buy of MCD better than Morgan Stanley's upgrade of CAVA; "I would be waiting here a little bit longer before stepping in" on CAVA."

Stephanie bought PH. Joe said it's a "great-looking chart."

Stephanie sold SCHW. (Of course, it was at a gain; she said she "made about 12%").

Joe's looking for a breakout in ADBE.

CNBC's gorjus Kate Rooney reported on the juicy details from the Sam Bankman-Fried trial. Judge called it "just incredible testimony."




The Sidd Finch of pro football


It started during the flawless preseason, only to be completely upended by the Week 1 manhandling by the San Francisco 49ers. And now it's ... barely ... back:

Optimism around here that T.J. Watt could somehow carry the Pittsburgh Steelers into the Super Bowl much like Ray Lewis did for the Baltimore Ravens in 2000.

After entertaining that notion for a few moments this week, reality hit in a big way:

No one can beat the Kansas City Chiefs. Not for the next 5-10 years.

They've somehow got the all-time perfect QB. It's a skill set no one's ever had in pro football and, over the course of a game, it's indefensible by the current entire rest of the league. It's like a baseball team having a pitcher who throws 168 mph and can pitch every other day.

This does NOT mean the Chiefs are going to win EVERY game this year and for the next 5-10 years. There will be some L's. There's only one way to "beat" them. Hope they have a bad day. A couple of those happen each season. That's the only way they lose. That's the gift that Cincinnati got in the 2021 AFC Championship. It's like being a 75 golfer and playing a guy who's a 66 golfer and hoping you can shoot 72 during the one round he shoots 73. It's possible one of those lapses happens in a playoff game and they would eliminate themselves from the Lombardi Trophy competition. Fans of other teams can always hope.

That's what we'll do. What choice do we got?



Jim starts up an argument with Josh, only their 2nd of the day


Sarat Sethi on Tuesday's (10/10) Halftime made the case for PEP, but it was 2 other panelists who took up the bulk of the conversation.

Josh Brown concurred with Sarat and said he doesn't believe that diet drugs will wipe out snack-food craving, though there could be "some behavioral changes at the margin."

But Jim Lebenthal said "Bah!" on KO and PEP; "I hate these 2 stocks," though "I don't think you're gonna lose money on it."

Josh argued that PEP has long had a premium valuation to the market but has "significantly less of a premium valuation now" than in the last 3-5 years.

Jim said if you buy the shares now, in a year, it'll be "like watching paint dry."

Josh asked Jim if GM is "exciting."

Jim said, "Yes it is exciting" (snicker).

Josh said, "It's the same price for 13 years."

Jim said, "That has no bearing on where the price is going. (snicker) ... I didn't mean to turn this personal (snicker)."

"It's not personal; I was gonna bring it up," Judge cut in.

"I'm being serious," Josh continued, adding that GM has been range-bound at 30-40 for 13 years.

"That has no bearing on where it's going next," Jim said.

Sarat said he owns staples, conceding they're "boring" but a good "fit" for a diversified portfolio.

Josh redirected the conversation to Jim, concluding, "20-year average annual returns of 9% on Pepsi. I don't understand how that's boring. It makes absolutely no sense to me."

Jim said, "Well then why don't you buy some shares?"

"I may," Brown said.



Josh and Jim’s first argument only took a couple minutes to get underway


Josh Brown barely took 2 minutes at the top of Tuesday's (10/10) Halftime Report to find an argument with Jim Lebenthal, as Brown began the show citing "yields" and the "steepening in the bond market" as the catalysts for Tuesday's rally.

Judge introduced Jim as "Jimmy Goldilocks." Jim first said the markets have rallied this week "primarily" because yields have come down and that they've come down this week because of the "exogenous issue in the Middle East."

Jim said that if CPI on Thursday comes in "softer than expectations," then the market will "put to bed the idea that the Fed's raising rates anymore."

Brown, who had tried to cut in and disagree during Jim's remarks, cited Jefferson's and Logan's rate comments and said he disagrees that geopolitical reasons are the "sole reasons" that rates have dipped. As Judge pointed out, Jim didn't say "sole," though Judge didn't mention that Jim did kind of imply it.

Sarat Sethi said if we get "softening" inflation data, we "could be off to the races, at least for the short term." (Or, we could've just waited for the calendar to hit 1st/2nd week of October and wait for the big whoosh down (that was Friday) and call the short-term bottom that way; see below.)

Jim at one point claimed that "at the beginning of this year" there were "how many" people saying there was "100% chance of recession." (Actually, we don't remember anyone saying "100%"; that would be an obvious front-runner for Bust of the Year.)

Karen Finerman on Fast Money Tuesday reiterated her "surprise" at how much the stock market has moved recently and cautioned "it could all go away with a bad number" in CPI.




‘There always has been and there always will be’ antitrust shadows over tech giants (a/k/a Jim and Josh seem to agree on PYPL but still nearly argued about Venmo)


Judge asked Josh Brown on Tuesday's (10/10) Halftime Report about GOOGL or META having a "reasonable price."

Brown said "they don't really have huge problems hanging over their head, yes, there's like an antitrust thing out there, um, but there always has been and there always will be."

Kari Firestone pointed out how Google searching already gives users suggested questions/answers. "You can type, 'What is Scott Wapner's', and then 'birthday' it will give you, and then you're gonna get the birthday, right?"

Indeed. And other birthdays too. Check out the image above.

Sarat Sethi said GOOGL should trade at 30 times, but it's lower because of "potential government intervention" and "competition" and "cyclical exposure."

Sarat bought FCX, a name Steve Weiss was in and out of this year (it was Weiss' name for saying "See even though I'm bearish I still own stocks and look for opportunities"), citing a better balance sheet than previous years and demand for copper. Sarat suggested this could be a "3-year hold."

Judge struggled to get an opinion from Kari on FCX (apparently, the gag was that Kari didn't recognize the ticker symbol) to the point he spun around in his chair.

Josh Brown said he has "no" interest in FCX.

Kari said ORLY is "definitely best in class" despite underperforming the S&P this year. Kari agrees with the Cowen outperform call and said it "has more to go" and the UAW strike could be a "positive" for the stock.

Judge asked Kari about PYPL, which got a reiterated buy from Mizuho and somehow a 92 target. Kari said 92 would be "great" and pointed out the stock was once $400; Judge shrugged that "Netflix was 700 ... come on." Kari insisted there's "plenty of room" for PYPL gains.

Jim Lebenthal said he sold PYPL a couple years ago and right now sees "no moat to competition." Jim said Zelle is "easier" than Venmo.

Judge said to chuckles that Jim says Venmo is "too difficult." Jim protested that he said it's "annoying," though he hadn't actually said "annoying." Judge said "it's really easy."

"This is not for me," said Josh Brown of PYPL.

For Final Trades, Josh put a 150 on GOOGL. (This writer is long GOOGL.) Sarat's Final Trade was UBER (this writer is long UBER), which included a curious rationale of "back to the office." Jim's Final Trade was NKE and Kari offered CRM.



DIS has a streaming quagmire that Iger should fold, license the content to highest bidder (cont’d) (a/k/a ‘how should I know how much capital Nelson Peltz has’ other than ... looking it up) (a/k/a Iger’s gonna be there 15 more years)


We thought the DIS discussion on Monday's (10/9) Halftime Report would center around Nelson Peltz, but Jenny Harrington was more interested in ... (Zzzzzzzz) ... valuation.

Jenny told Judge, "We think Disney's found its bottom," which is basically what Jenny's been saying for months. The rationale this time was not betting against New York City, "The entire share price is trading at 15 times just the parks. That's not counting streaming, that's not counting ESPN. There is value to those, however you cut it."

Well, there's no reason to count streaming, it's basically the equivalent of Google's driverless cars or space program that can't make a dime but feels like "something we should do" and in Disney's case only happened because Wall Street knuckleheads demanded it and a buncha CNBC hosts kept saying on air (not the exact quote), "Oh, when they do streaming, I'd pay a HUNDRED dollars for it with my kids," which is fine except most people aren't CNBC hosts.

Judge questioned Jenny bringing up DIS's ytd return with those of NKE, MCD, HD and SBUX. "You're really comparing it to those companies in terms of thinking where the stock is gonna go?" Judge asked.

"The fact that it's not down as much as those ... I would've thought it'd be down more," Jenny explained.

Jenny's comments about DIS basically had nothing to do with Nelson Peltz, although Jenny said she looked up Peltz's record in the last 10 years and said his activism hasn't really "juiced" returns.

Joe Terranova said he's "not taking a position" but until DIS restores the dividend or sells ABC or finds a "strategic partner" for ESPN, curiously, Joe said there is still a "Peltz Put in Disney" that is "absolutely gonna be there."

"What is the Peltz Put?" asked Steve Weiss. "How much capital do you think he has?"

"Call him and ask him," Joe advised.

"I thought you knew because you said there's a Peltz Put," Weiss said.

"You're the one asking that question ... how should I know how much capital Nelson Peltz has ... he's active in the market at a certain valuation," Joe protested.

"OK, but you can see how much capital he has, No. 1, it's not unlimited capital," Weiss countered.

Then Weiss cut to the chase, which he alone on the show has stressed recently: "I don't know how much value to assign to streaming. It's losing money with no road to profitability in sight," Weiss said.

Weiss offered this strategy moments later: "What if he spins off the streaming business with embedded contracts with their production. And make it a good-bad- good bank/bad bank type of situation."

The "embedded contracts" sounds too complicated. It's more simple. Fold Disney+ and offer the library (and future programs) to the highest bidder, which will be either Netflix or Apple and let them spend the gobs of money on customer acquisition and retention. (Check that — if it's AAPL, let the wireless carriers cover that cost.)

"They still have a lot of debt," Weiss said of DIS.

Judge made Jenny's earlier point that DIS is only valued on its theme parks. Weiss said he'd like to buy the stock, but "I'm not so sure the downside is done."

As for Peltz, Weiss said "it's great to have a fresh set of eyes" at DIS. "Let's not forget that, that, that Iger came in and just criticized Chapek. Guess who put Chapek in there. Guess who groomed him. Guess who went into streaming. Guess who cut the deal with Fox."

"We know. Bob Iger," Jenny said.

Josh Brown said he's "with Team Weiss" on DIS; "I don't think we've had the washout yet" and there's "a little bit of amnesia here," because Peltz already fought a proxy battle with DIS and the stock fell 25% "after Peltz backed down." Brown said Peltz backed down because Iger laid out a $5.5 billion cost-cutting plan, which nevertheless has been "mission accomplished."

Brown said Peltz can't push board nominees until January. "Nothing is happening here from a proxy standpoint," Brown said.

Judge claimed with a straight face, "They need to figure out who's gonna take over for Iger." Brown said, "They're already there," explaining that Iger bought out the consulting firm of the "2 heirs apparent."

Josh pronounced "either" as "eye-ther" during the DIS discussion.

On Fast Money, Tim Seymour said exactly what Jenny Harrington said hours earlier, stating that given the value of Disney's parks, "you're getting the entire rest of the company for free."

Karen Finerman said, as to the question of whether Peltz is the answer, "I don't know, but he's not the problem." Karen said Peltz has a "decent shot" of winning at least 1 board seat, and another voice on the board may be "beneficial."

"He's certainly not the problem," Guy Adami agreed with Karen.



Judge tripped up on AAPL, clumsily makes Weiss’ point for him


Steve Weiss on Monday's (10/9) Halftime Report sold NVDA basically because of his "cautious view on the market." Weiss somehow with a straight face wondered "who the marginal buyer is for a trade."

Weiss boasted to Judge about how he doesn't have to own all the megacap techs. "I don't think I have to own Apple," Weiss said. (But maybe he should; maybe it has the "Peltz Put.").

"You should own Apple; it's up every day since it got downgraded last week," Judge said.

"OK thank you. Thank you. I'm gonna hire you as my deputy portfolio manager since you have so much spare time," Weiss told Judge, which is a twist since months ago when Weiss suggested Judge could be a bank examiner.

"Nobody can analyze Apple. They don't- management doesn't talk to you," Weiss stated.

"It's not like some black hole," Judge protested.

"Apple exists, OK, at the pleasure of the telcos," Weiss said, "because they subsidize the buying of it," a point he's made over the past ... oh ... 15 years.

Judge pointed out those "same issues" have been present with AAPL over the years, and Weiss has owned it "many many times."

"I'm not an index manager. I'm not gonna own indexes," Weiss said.

"I didn't say you had to own indexes. We're talking about Apple," Judge said.

"You basically said, 'Why don't you own Apple?'" Weiss said.

"I didn't say 'Why don't you own Apple,' I said- you're saying I don't own Apple because it remains at the, the, the mercy of the telcos. ... It's always existed then."

"It's overvalued," Weiss bluntly declared.

"See, we finally got to the point. It's overvalued," Judge said.

"I've made that point multiple times. I'm sorry you don't recall," Weiss said.

Then Judge, after badgering Weiss on this subject, somehow decided to make his argument for him: "You owned Apple when the valuation was half of what it is now. Now it's overvalued, but then it wasn't? C'mon Weiss."

C'mon what? That makes perfect sense.

"Let me just repeat that," Weiss said, saying those statements by Judge were correct and now it's "overvalued."



Still paying attention to the calendar and those 1st- or 2nd-week of October bottoms


Karen Finerman on Monday's (10/9) Fast Money raised eyebrows when she noted we've had a "pretty big reversal" since Friday morning, and "This mini-bounce I think is near the end."

We were thinking just the opposite, given Larry Altman's analysis of market bottoms (see below) and how that theory once again seems to be occurring right in the calendar sweet spot.

At the top of Monday's (10/9) Halftime Report, Joe Terranova curiously said the "safe haven trade" is "clearly in place" and he sees a "disinflationry trend" and "slower economic growth."

But Joe said there are "strong tailwinds" in the Magnificent 7 and "the defense stocks." Joe bought the ITA.

Joe told Judge he views this as similar to (his longtime favorite) "Palo Alto" and CRWD as a "longer-term trade."

Jenny Harrington said consumer sentiment "feels horrible," and when that's the case, people won't pay previous valuations.

Steve Weiss, in the first of his tangling with the host Monday, questioned Judge's statement that there's a "low bar" for earnings expectations. Weiss said expectations are going to be up for the first time in a year; "how is that muted?"

Judge said "Right but they haven't turned hard" and are just "barely a tick higher." Weiss said he doesn't believe the earnings recession is over and the market is "wildly complacent."

Weiss said Jay Powell is "targeting the jobs market" and "he's not having success there." Judge said Powell is having success from the standpoint of wages. Weiss said "wages will follow" and said the jobs report was a "blowout number" and "this number should not have been a blowout number."

Weiss kept saying, "We don't know" what'll happen in the Middle East.

Josh Brown, however, pointed out there's been a "whole range of market reactions to these types of events over the years."

Brown said 1973 was different because of the oil embargo; in 2014, the markets recovered quickly because "this is of course not to be callous at all," but "it's tough to shock investors with the same news over and over again."

Josh said he doesn't see "any complacency" in bank stocks.

"There's a lot of damage and destruction all over this market. It's just being masked by a couple of megacap names that have held up really well," Josh explained.

Joe Terranova suggested earnings disappointments are the biggest risk to the market, but last week, "We got a little bit of an indication that potentially, maybe, the Federal Reserve was beginning to pivot in their thought process."

Uh oh. Someone's already talking about a "pivot."

Judge told Joe "you call it a pivot," while Mary Daly said the recent spike in rates is like a hike.

Jenny predicted possibly some bond buying on Tuesday. Joe said bond futures already indicate as much.

The Morgan Stanley guy found a new way to get mentioned, issuing a report recommending dividend-paying stocks. Jenny said Mike took the Russell 1000 back to 2000 and found dividend-paying stocks rose 1,200% while non-dividend-paying stocks were up 500%. "I think that surprises people," said Jenny, who said some people may be surprised by the volatility in some seemingly sleepy dividend stocks. If those people can "kinda ride out" the rough patches, "they're going to get a really nice return," Jenny said.

It sounded like Jenny was trumpeting dividend payors including partnerships and REITs, for those who find even the ridiculous "qualified dividend" machinations on their tax form irritating.

On Fast Money, Karen Finerman lamented not buying WW when Oprah boosted it to $11 years ago, not realizing it was headed to $100.




Joe (and Santoli) pronounces it ‘eye-ther,’ while Judge pronounces it ‘ee-ther’


A mini-donnybrook got started on Friday's (10/06) Halftime Report after Joe Terranova stated that there's a "yellow light" in the oil market.

"We're kind of in a neutral state where it could go either way," Joe said.

Josh Brown then offered the downward stats in oil while painting a rosy outlook. "Crude oil peaked on September 27th at $93 a barrel. Oil is down 12% since then," he said, adding that "only 9%" of the XLE components are above their 50-day. But Josh said these are still some of the cheapest companies in the market and that the IEO companies collectively are at a single-digit P.E.

"These stocks are gonna work so long as there's no major breakdown in the price of crude ... I don't see any reason why there would be," Brown said.

Judge then asked Joe if he disagreed and said he "must," as Judge told Joe; "You think the momentum's done."

"No, I did not say- I never said those words. I didn't say 'the momentum is done,'" Joe said. "I've told- I said the momentum that has been in place since April of 2022 has been neutralized. We're in a position right now where we could go either way. ... We can go in either direction right now."

"Well I mean, we could do this, we could do that-" Judge started to say, looking up at the NYSE ceiling.

"It's not a light switch. It's not on or off. That's how markets work," Joe explained.

"... The rain could stop. The sun might come out," Judge continued.

"You're wrong. You're wrong," Joe insisted.

"Well what do you mean, you're the one saying-" Judge said.

"That's not how markets work! Markets don't always go bull to bear," Joe asserted.

Josh cut in, saying "Joe is exactly right" about oil stocks' momentum; Josh said he's not "countering" that; Josh just happens to think these are going to be good stocks.

Then Judge declared, "My point is that Joe manages an ETF, OK, based in large part on momentum, OK. (Actually, no, Judge's point, a correct one, is that Joe is simply dodging making a call on oil.) If he deems the momentum to have broken down, right, he's gonna have to make a decision on Halloween as to whether when he rebalances that ETF whether he takes those energy stocks in the ETF and kicks 'em to the curb. ... It's a dicey decision because as Joe clarified to me, that means that he could still go either way ... he might not have the luxury" of waiting till next year, which Josh predicts will be good.

"Great explanation. Great explanation. You're a hundred percent accurate," Joe praised Judge.

"I agree with that, but the thing is, it's not a 'dicey decision,' because Joe is running a rules-based portfolio," Josh said.

"No, but the last thing he wants to do is get rid of energy stocks and then see them run, run af- right after he gets rid of 'em!" Judge said.

Judge added, "It can be painful. THAT'S my point." (Actually, his point was that Joe was bailing on making a call on crude and basically providing zero trading advice.)

"Absolutely, and I wear that," Joe chuckled. "I'm just telling you, crude oil is in a critical place where it can go in either direction right now." (In other words, Joe is still bailing on making a call on crude.)




Is Friday the bottom?


While this page continues to keep an eye on Larry Altman's 2014 comment about when markets typically bottom (hint: we're basically there, or very close), Joe Terranova opened Friday's (10/6) Halftime saying, "Maybe we're not gonna wait until October 13th for the 1-year anniversary of the 2022 low to bottom, and we're just gonna do it today," a suggestion Judge did not pursue nearly vigorously enough.

Joe stated that "this is very strong price action" that suggests we're "certainly building a base in which we can rally through Q4."

Joe said "the real story here" is about whether next Thursday's CPI report can "incentivize buyers to come in and absorb the tremendous amount of supply that we're seeing to fund the deficit." (Ah. OK. And we just thought that as of Friday, everyone has stopped talking about the deficit.)

Judge said the jobs report is "exactly" what Jim Lebenthal had been talking about. Jim wasn't actually on the panel. Moments later, Jim called in and credited Josh Brown for suggesting a day ago that algos could take over early trading Friday before humans got control. Jim said these are "good inflation numbers" and, with a little productivity, "this inflation problem can go away pretty darn quickly."

"I'm very bullish right now," Jim said.

Josh Brown pointed to TGT as to whether consumer headwinds have been priced in; the stock has "literally has lost almost half its market cap since January."

But Brown said, "It turns out, U.S. companies are extremely good at passing on higher costs themselves to the consumer. They really have not had any problem doing that."

Judge and Shannon Saccocia parsed over differences between "megacap" and "larger cap."

Mike Santoli said "The morning was really interesting" in terms of trading; he said "you definitely could spin it either way," which sounds no different than Joe's waffling like l'eggo my egg'o on the direction of crude.



Nothing this time about the Fed’s ‘stupid messaging’ (or Atlanta GDP)


Steve Liesman got some extended time on Friday's (10/6) Halftime Report; Judge asked Steve, "Is this Goldilocks for Jay Powell?"

"Um, I don't think he would say Goldilocks," Steve started to say, but Judge said, "I know he wouldn't ... that's why you're here."

"I think the job numbers are still stronger than he wants them to be," Steve opined, but, "so long as we're doing these kind of numbers and not driving up the wages, then I think he'll abide (snicker) it."

Steve said the 10-year "really round-tripped. ... I don't know what happened around 11 o'clock." Steve said the "odds-on bet" remains no hike.

Josh Brown said he doesn't think payrolls is "the thing," rather, it's "average hourly earnings," which Brown said "came in exactly where we needed it to come in quite frankly ... trending in the right direction."

Moments later, Judge suggested Powell might be "feeling rather victorious at the moment." Steve Liesman countered, "I think he's a little more nervous than that."

In a bit of a speech about the things the Fed and economists care about, Steve said, "You are asking him ... to abandon this supposed relationship between job growth and inflation." Steve said if any Fed chair would do that, "this is the guy" and "I think he's open to it," so "this may be a moment that he lets it run to see how it comes out."

Nevertheless, Steve concluded that in order to feel victorious as Judge suggested, Powell's "gotta let something go" and it's "gotta be something like Wile E. Coyote when he gets to the end of the mesa and he steps off and there's nothing underneath him. He's gotta believe there's something underneath him now, and I think that's a tough thing to do."

Hmmm, OK ... if we had to translate what Steve was saying, we think he means that indeed, some people may think it's mission accomplished for the Fed, and it's even possible Jay Powell is one of those people. However, the establishment probably does NOT think it's mission accomplished, so if Powell were to argue "we don't have to care about such and such as much anymore because of ... ," he would only make that argument if he thought there was some kind of establishment support beneath it.

(And what that has to do with Saturday morning cartoons, we're not sure.)

Later, Steve said he wanted to "maybe throw a little cold water on the euphoria here," pointing out that "rates are still higher," which is "almost worse than a Fed rate hike."

"I don't think that there is much disagreement from the Fed on the front end," Steve concluded. "Where there is disagreement is next year."



No updates on the ‘governmental balance sheet recession’


Judge on Friday's (10/6) Halftime stated that Bernstein initiated DIS outperform with a 103 and that Seaport says buy, 93, and no one on the program even asked why this company continues to run a quagmire streaming service.

Judge asked Josh if DIS is "in the process of bottoming."

"I just don't think it's over yet," Brown said, adding we need "actual answers to these big strategic decisions that Bob Iger has to make."

Even so, "All of that negativity's in the stock," Brown said, though he noted that it was only up "a buck and a half" on 2 upgrades. "It's just a heavy, heavy stock," Brown said, mentioning 75 and a future "washout moment."

Joe Terranova said (it can go eye-ther way) if you buy DIS, you're buying it on "value," not "growth." Joe added, "I don't think that Disney's past the worst."

Judge asked Joe about Bank of America reiterating buy at LLY, which the JOET sold at the end of July, which Joe said was "obviously regrettable." Joe said LLY's obesity drug potential is "obviously" going to be a Q4 catalyst, and "certainly there's a green light when you're looking at momentum."

Rattling off the big day in cybersecurity names, Joe said spending in that sector is "almost as if it's a necessity." Joe said to make sure you "size the position accordingly" in those stocks to handle the volatility.

Josh said the PEP chart looks "obscenely overdone."




‘Playtime’ is a famous movie by Jacques Tati


Given a speech at the top of Thursday's (10/5) Halftime Report, Josh Brown said the Fed is "miscalculating" with its "higher for longer" mantra.

"It's really stupid messaging," Brown said, suggesting they can "calm it down a little bit."

Josh opined, "If we get a hot jobs report that contradicts the little bit of relief that we got from ADP in the middle of this week, uh, I think that you- you're, you're gonna make new year lows, uh, in all the major indices ... I wish it weren't so."

But, "We might be helped out by the auto strikes," Brown added.

"The consumer's not hanging in there. The wealthy consumer is hanging in there," Brown said. adding that "all of the strength, ergo, in the economy, is in leisure, is in playtime."

"There is good news out there," said Jim Lebenthal, and that's what he always says, stressing this time, "It can't all be leisure if the Atlanta Fed's at 4.9% real GDP."

Kari Firestone suggested the jobs number could be in a "comfortable" range for the market.



Josh: Same people who screamed about inverted yield curve are screaming about the de-inversion


On Thursday's (10/5) Halftime Report, Josh Brown was pointing out some apparent inconsistency among loud stock market voices.

Brown said, "All of the people who are screaming about long-term, uh, Treasury yields ... were the same people who were screaming about the inverted yield curve a year ago. It's the same people!"

But, if you "hated the inversion, you should really like what's gone on the last 8 weeks," Brown explained.

Steve Liesman said Fed officials' rhetoric has been "neutral" about the rise in rates, but, as Judge stressed that the Fed better be hearing what the markets are saying, Steve indicated that Jay Powell could send yields down with a comment about financial conditions being "too tight."

Josh said every S&P sector is below its 50-day and added that either Petco or PetSmart "went from selling bonds at 3% to 9%."

Josh said all the rate hikes we've had are "biting" based on August-September.

Kari Firestone stressed "we were at 4,588 on August 1st."



Judge promises to divulge his schedule, so panelists can plan their trades around it


Judge interrupted Thursday's (10/5) Halftime Report fairly early with news about the WSJ's report on GM airbags.

Judge then told Jim Lebenthal that the UAW strike "really has no end in sight."

Jim, who's long GM, said he has to "read the article" and needs "more data" before making a "cohesive statement on it." But Jim said this isn't the first time we've had airbag defects, and "usually" the airbag manufacturers bear the "fiscal responsibility."

Meanwhile, Judge said KeyBanc thinks you can buy utilities. Judge asked Kari Firestone about NEE. Kari said she bought when it was "down considerably" (presumably a while ago and not Thursday).

"We think it's oversold here," Kari said, nevertheless promising an "answer" on what to do about the stock in a few days. But as of now, "we think it's overdone."

Josh Brown said KeyBanc upgraded the sector but removed its NEE price target and "cut their rating on that stock in particular."

Jim said NEE is a "fabulous frickin' company."

As for general portfolio, management, Jim told Judge that "I think you were on vacation when I did lighten up a little bit." Judge said, "I'll send my schedule over, later on."

Jim said "it's time to put that money back to work," and he's choosing DE and ORCL.

Josh said "Oracle has some support in the high 90s," and he thinks it'll "kiss that level before turning around."

Jim conceded that even though Raymond James cut its airline price targets, "Those targets are way above where the share prices are right now."

Judge said he wants to tell "the whole story" and that Goldman and RayJa are still "reiterating" a buy on select airlines; this is just "maybe having a bit of a reality check on what the price targets should be."




Why The Eagles ‘Their Greatest Hits (1971-1975)’ didn’t get a vote as greatest greatest hits album (below)


A day ago, this page leaped into a comment from Josh Brown about this being a "Greatest Hits Market," briefly speculating as to what actually are the greatest greatest hits albums ever.

Some people wondered about our 2 finalists. OK, nobody actually asked about it, but there was some conversation about it here. First of all, any album collection is a great collection. Second, there have to be hundreds of great greatest hits albums, many of which can probably be heard at CNBCfix HQ.

But a couple big contenders come to mind. The Stones' "Hot Rocks," Al Green, Lightfoot. Simon & Garfunkel. Fleetwood Mac. Of course, The Beatles 1962-1966 and The Beatles 1967-1970. (Notice these collections are all decades old; selections from the era of Napster/iTunes/streaming are too late.)

And the famously massive-selling and famously David Geffen-inspired "Their Greatest Hits (1971-1975)."

Eagles members later said they weren't consulted about the greatest hits album and weren't sold on the idea of a greatest hits compilation after just 4 albums. Don Henley objected to the inclusion of a couple songs that were taken out of their thematic concepts from the previous albums. Apparently there was suspicion that David Geffen and/or the label wanted to manufacture an album of low-hanging fruit while the band worked on its next effort, which was going to be "Hotel California." Whatever the motivation, the formula worked; one critic is quoted on the Wiki page as saying "Their Greatest Hits (1971-1975)" is so smooth, it makes the original albums "redundant."

But that's the problem. Sure, "Their Greatest Hits (1971-1975)" has great songs. But so do those original albums, which to many people, were made irrelevant. The bottom line is that "Their Greatest Hits" encompasses only about 3-4 years of work, includes no concert versions or unreleased material and has no band input. (And when you see the reported sales figures for this album and realize that these sales figures are compiled by private industry groups, you might wonder exactly how these sales are authenticated.)



Jenny doesn’t make a strong enough case to convince Bryn about 52-week lows


Some dueling theories were discussed on Wednesday's (10/4) Halftime Report.

Bryn Talkington said she has a rule, never buy stocks at 52-week lows or short stocks at 52-week highs, but NKE is "something to watch" because it bounced off 90.

Jenny Harrington, on the other hand, said she's a different type of investor than Bryn and thus starts to "perk up" at stocks at 52-week lows.

Jenny said she owns VFC and KSS and cited dividends and new management. Bryn said the dividends in those names allow investors to "be patient," but the stocks need a "catalyst."

Late in the show, CNBC reporter Phil LeBeau asked GM CFO Paul Jacobson, "shouldn't there be a little more urgency" in UAW negotiations. Jacobson said it's been a different "strategy" and a "very different negotiation for, uh, all 3 of the major manufacturers."



Bryn: ‘We are all living still in the past 13 years’


On Wednesday's (10/4) Halftime Report, Judge seemed to indicate that maybe interest rates have had a "hot sizzle" that isn't sustainable.

"We can't watch, Jenny, the yield on the 10-year go up every day," Judge told Jenny Harrington.

Jenny chuckled, "It's funny ... in my old, old office, so probably about 8 years ago, I made a very obnoxious and bold statement, which was, in my career, I don't think I'll see a 5-year Treasury again."

But while that may seem, at the moment, like a bad prediction, Jenny isn't so sure.

"I actually don't see the path to get there," Jenny explained, asserting that the Fed is "essentially done."

Judge then told Joe Terranova that maybe expectations of rising rates are too high; it feels like "too many people have gotten on that, that side of the boat," sort of "potentially overstating the fact that the buyers just aren't gonna be there."

But Joe countered, "Right now, there is aggressive selling, hedge funds we know are sellers of Treasurys. Who's on the other side? Who's the marginal buyer of Treasurys?"

Bryn Talkington basically said to get used to it. "I think that we are all living still in the past 13 years, and everyone's expecting the Fed to start cutting rates," Bryn said. "And all of a sudden, the 10-year goes from 4.70 down to 3%, and we should lock in these 10-year yields. I think that you need to settle in that, the bull market in bonds that we're in for 30 years is over," we're in a new era of "structurally higher rates" and inflation.

Bryn doesn't find a 4.7% 10-year "even remotely interesting."



‘Early stages of a governmental balance sheet recession’


"Right now, it's rates, rates, rates," said Bryn Talkington at the top of Wednesday's (10/4) Halftime Report, but one panelist had a more nuanced way of putting it.

Joe Terranova said, "It is very clear to me that we are at the early stages of a governmental balance sheet recession" and that we could "actually be in that recession right now."

Honestly, we don't think we've ever lived through a "governmental balance sheet recession" before. (Or if we have, thankfully, no one's ever given us a pop quiz about it.)

Citing "25-year low" gasoline demand, Joe said, "The impact of rising rates is affecting the real economy right now."

Joe said the renewable energy trade is "literally imploding." (Um, not exactly "literally.")

Bryn said 4.25% in the 10-year is "now the floor."

Judge read Jeffrey Gundlach's X tweet noting the yield curve is "de-inverting very rapidly" and trumpeting a "recession warning."

Judge said we're "transfixed" by the bond market.

But Judge also noted that Clarida said "the Fed might be done."

Jason Snipe said "I think about seasonality" (uh oh, you know what Weiss says (see below), if all people need is a calendar, then ...), and Jason found that "over the last 40 years, the S&P is up 4.6%, you know, during the 4th quarter." Jason also said, "81% of the time, the S&P is up."



‘Panic selling’ in tech


Judge noted on Wednesday's (10/4) Halftime Report that JPMorgan reiterated its overweight of META despite dropping the price target from 425 to 400.

Jenny Harrington said $400 "sounds aggressive" and her shop has been trimming and "I felt like (her shop was) the only ones who liked it last year."

Judge asked Joe Terranova for the "signal" to start buying AAPL. Joe said "a lot of the problem" is thinking of "positioning" as a "light switch." Bryn Talkington suggested selling calls against an AAPL position.

Joe said he funded his recent QQQ trade by selling BAC and "the biotech ETF."

Judge remotely brought in Bill Baruch, who added to GOOGL. Bill said he thinks we're in the "panic selling" phase and rates are at "peaking level," so he wants to own Big Tech, and he said GOOGL has "relative outperformance" this year against the QQQ.

Joe said he sold MS after owning it for 6 years. Joe said it was about "managing the risk around a portfolio" and also "macro conditions." Joe said he questions how banks are going to grow "organically." Joe suggested that buying the debt of MS is "probably more favorable" than owning the stock.

Bryn said BAC is "trading like a regional bank" and she only owns GS among financials, "that's it."

Bryn sold XBI, "it's really broken down," but she used the funds on the POCT, which uses some kind of call spread to provide some S&P protection that frankly 1) either has no downside based on what Bryn was describing or 2) sounds too good to be true.



Judge says they’ll sort out why he was told Jenny owns SHW


Judge asked Joe Terranova on Wednesday's (10/4) Halftime Report what to do with homebuilders with rates this high. Joe said homebuilders are "moderating gains"; Judge was having none of it and stated that "Lennar's down 10 and a half percent in a month; D.R.'s down 14, is that moderating? What's that?"

Joe said Judge is talking about "price action." Judge said, "Melting." Even Joe laughed.

Joe said the "fundamentals" are good, homebuilders have the advantage of a "very tight residential inventory of homes in the United States." However, Joe conceded, "Have they seen their best moment? Yes they have."

Jason Snipe said LOW is still gaining share in the "pro segment" from HD.

Judge asked Jenny Harrington about Sherwin Williams but probably should've spoken with his producer first. "How you feelin' about that one," Judge asked Jenny.

Jenny revealed, "We sold Sherwin a couple years ago." Jenny speculated that someone made a "typo" in the list of holdings given to Judge because her shop owns SCHW. "We can dissect that whole thing later," Judge said.




Stephanie’s focus is about as helpful as hoping your favorite team wins this week (a/k/a Josh’s eyes indicate disbelief)


On Tuesday's (10/3) Halftime Report, Judge mentioned Jim Lebenthal's standing call of a face-ripping rally in Q4 and how Jim "has gotten more invested in some of those Magnificent 7 names," and so Judge asked Stephanie Link, who like Jim was at Post 9, if that is "the thing that saves the day. Is it chase?"

"No, profits save the day. Earnings save the day," Link said. "Over the long term, stocks follow profits ... that's why it's so important to follow the economy and follow all the data points."

OK. Let's stop right there. It's "so important to follow the economy" ... so that you can buy better stocks than all the other people following the economy?

Anyway. Josh Brown cut in. "In 2022, that didn't help you at all. The Nasdaq fell 35% while we added — added — jobs every month of the year," Brown told Link.

"But earnings fell big time," Link protested.

"No this year! This year! Not last year," Brown said.

"You said 2022!" Link said.

"It- That's my- that's my point. You said 'I focus on earnings,' I focus on jobs.' In 2022, earnings were fine and actually we added jobs, the stock market got demolished. I really- I wish it were that simple," Brown said.

"Earnings- It is that simple, over the long term, Josh. Earnings fell," Link said.

"He asked you about into year-end," Brown said.

"I'm saying, into year-end, into next year, if I think profits are going higher, I think ultimately the market goes higher. That was my point," Link said.

Brown continued to spar with Jim, before the Link argument resumed.

"You're buying stocks based on earnings. That's- at the end of the day, that's what we're pointing out," Link said.

"They don't necessarily move in the same direction," Brown said.

"Yes they do. Yes they do. Over the long term, they absolutely do," Link insisted, before Judge cut to a break.

Well ... as best we can tell, Stephanie is basically saying that teams with the biggest point differential are probably going to have the best records. But how do we know which teams are going to have the biggest point differentials?




What’s the Greatest Greatest Hits Album of all time? We might nominate Allman Brothers or Neil Young, which have ‘Decade’ in the title


Judge on Tuesday's (10/3) Halftime Report said Jim Lebenthal raised his year-end S&P target to 4,450 (Zzzzzz) despite a "relentless" rise in rates.

Jim, who was at Post 9, said he agrees with Brian Belski (Zzzzzzzz) from a day earlier. "What rates are actually saying right now Scott is that economic growth is a lot better than people expected," Jim explained.

Josh Brown said, "The competition from bonds cannot be overstated," and then offered, "Nothing that you see going on right now has anything to do with, 'Is the economy good or not?' 100% has to do with this push and pull over what bond yields are."

Judge asked Brown about NEE, which Judge had mentioned a day ago. Brown called it "a horrible performer in a sector of horrible performers." Brown said it's a "double trouble situation" in which utilities aren't paying enough given today's rates, and also, "they've gotta roll debt," precisely the same observation made hours later by Mike Khouw on Fast Money.

Brown said in the last few weeks, he's been "getting rid of a lot of things that, uh, are non-core." Brown called this a "Greatest Hits Market Environment."

Karen Finerman on Fast Money wished husband Lawrence Golub a happy birthday.




There they go again: When the market stumbles, Judge starts hectoring Jim for his it’s-better-than-people-think forecast


Judge on Tuesday's (10/3) Halftime Report brought up Marko Kolanovic, who according to Judge thinks rates are "deeply restrictive." (A day earlier, Dan Nathan on Fast Money scooped Judge, saying Marko is highlighting the "same things that were being talked about in '07," such as "resilient consumer" and "good jobs setup.") (And the thing is, part of 2016 was probably like 2007 too, and then if you sold on Election Day, you were a gigantic knucklehead.)

Jim Lebenthal countered that a lot of companies have had "meaningful" upward earnings revisions, including ALK. Judge countered that ALK has been "bludgeoned" by rising oil and that "maybe the estimates are delusional. Because the oil price is real."

Jim said "you triggered me, right, because the delusional comment is one that we've been talking about for a year and a half."

"Well I didn't say you're delusional. I said the earnings estimates ... and you know what, earnings estimates for the most part have proven to be delusional. Because they've had to come down."

"Come on, come on, come on," Jim said, explaining that "when we first started talking about 'delusional' estimates like last summer (sic presumably meant 2022 and not 2023), we were talkin' about a major dropoff in estimates this year."

Jim said that people like him who didn't think it would be that bad "were labeled as 'delusional.'"

"It's a word that has often been used when there's a disagreement," Jim added.

Stephanie Link asserted that "energy stocks are not priced to perfection." Stephanie also brought up "the onshoring (sigh) that we're talking about," which (sigh) got Judge going again. "It's not a near-term tailwind by any stretch," Judge said, also saying "neel-term" (sic) (snicker) by mistake.

Jim insisted the ISM "clearly" looks like it's bottoming.

Judge again brought up David Tepper's "from QE to QT" comments last week; "I don't mean to beat it like a dead horse." (If he's looking for fresh Tepper material, perhaps Judge should start questioning the panel about why the Carolina Panthers hired Matt Rhule (check out that record at Nebraska) Frank Reich or traded up to draft Bryce Young and why they're 0-4 and why people who think they can run a football team better than Tepper may actually be correct.)

Josh Brown said it's "worth pointing out" that "things were as uncertain" a year ago at this time as now, "and the stock market bottomed. And most of the big Nasdaq names doubled off those lows."



No one this time suggests LULU is a ‘footwear company’


Jim Lebenthal explained why he bought NKE during the rather argumentative episode of the Halftime Report on Tuesday (10/3). (We thought he was going to say, "Like Stephanie says, the earnings went up over time.") First he said, "Buy great companies." Then he compared NKE with DIS and said the 3-year charts are "almost identical," however, NKE is not going through an "industry transformation."

"I'm getting it at a good price," Jim added. Judge said, "How do you know that?" Jim said he's invested in the company over 30 years, and "historically getting it at 24 times forward earnings, which is roughly where it is right now, has been a win for me."

"I have it as closer to 27 forward P.E., 26.8," Judge said.

"24. 24," said Stephanie Link.

A few moments later, Judge said, "See here's the forward P.E. right there, near 27, I don't know."

"Lookin' at Factset," Jim reiterated.

Josh Brown was asked to weigh in on NKE.

"It's the same chart as Disney," Josh said, adding he agrees with Jim that "it's not the same situation," but he still thinks it gets to 80 before 100. "It just feels so heavy to me."

Josh sold RIG and said there's risk "down to the mid-7s." But he said the company is "doing the right thing." Jim Lebenthal, who has touted RIG for a while, said the company "is doing well."

Jim said airline stocks have an overhang of "how much of a slowdown." However ... stop if you've heard this before ... "I'm not sure Scott that it does slow down."

Judge a couple times kept asking Jim about airlines, if not now, when will they move, given that we've had the "biggest air-travel boom in our lifetimes." (But he didn't say "golden age" this time.)




Judge says Tepper is not ‘overwhelmingly bearish,’ must be referring to stocks and not the 0-4 Carolina Panthers


Judge opened Monday's (10/2) Halftime Report saying it's "not that complicated," rates are up and stocks are down.

Joe Terranova sees no "fundamental catalyst" for falling yields.

Joe pointed out there wasn't really a "safe haven" except for the megacaps.

Judge recalled his Tepper conversation from Friday; Tepper said "It's not that complicated," according to Judge; it's the "QT Era" and "It can't be the same multiple as before."

(Judge apparently didn't feel compelled to ask people whether Dave Tepper's football decisions ... um, that would be hiring head coaches and making No. 1 draft picks ... are as good as his financial decisions, and if not, then why not.)

Steve Weiss said this is a "restrictive monetary environment" and we've got "a lot" more supply from the Fed coming on.

Shannon Saccocia suggested, "This 4th quarter could be a setup for complacency."

Joe said, if this really is "peak yields," then the "real opportunity" is in the corporate bond market.

Karen Finerman on Fast Money said Ford's layoffs in Chicago seem "very political" and are "trying to foment dissent among the rank and file" and "it doesn't bode for a quick resolution, I don't think. Just ratchets up the pressure."



Weiss slams Belski’s reasoning: ‘If we just relied on the calendar, you’d be out of a job’


On Monday's (10/2) Halftime Report, Brian Belski said he's "very comfortable" with 4,550 (Zzzzzzzz) and cited stats about how Q4 in years like these is almost always good.

But Steve Weiss took issue with Belski's Q4 forecast. "If we just relied on the calendar, you'd be out of a job," Weiss asserted.

"Rates are too damn high. Pure and simple," Weiss said.

Along those lines, Weiss also hectored Belski over Belski's new buy of KBH.

Belski said he thinks "KB is very well-positioned" in areas of growing population. Judge pointed out the "overhang" of higher rates on homebuilder stocks.

"You wanna think contrarian," Belski, undaunted, responded.

Weiss, though, advised Belski, "Wait — there's no rush to buy KB Home in a rising-rate environment." Weiss suggested Belski play KBH against a short of the homebuilders ETF, an interesting trade that Weiss said can negate the "economic issues" for a sector.



Weiss says Andy Jassy is a ‘much better financial steward’ of AMZN than Jeff Bezos (a/k/a Joe would buy X at 32)


Something of a 1-man quote machine on Monday's (10/2) Halftime Report, Steve Weiss shrugged that ARKK is "just a binary fund ... I'm not gonna say it's bad or good."

Judge said it's "still up like 20-some-odd percent year to date."

Weiss said to look on a "2-year basis."

Weiss predicted NVDA will be "extremely volatile" and "bounce around."

But then Weiss observed of AMZN, "Andy Jassy's been much more financh- much better financial steward of it than Bezos. Bezos, legendary CEO."

Brian Belski bought more ORCL, citing an "overreaction" to its recent revenue number and then, rather curiously, stated that "it does help us bring the multiple down in our tech holdings." (As if having the lowest multiple in tech makes the stocks go the highest.)

Addressing the Morgan Stanley X upgrade (that's a stock upgrade of U.S. Steel, not a software update of the platform formerly known as Twitter), Joe Terranova said "I'm comfortable buying some of these steel names," including X at 32, citing a resolution to the UAW strike, whenever that happens.

"I would not own the steel stocks here," Weiss countered, citing used-car prices and "incentives on new-car prices."

Weiss said Morgan Stanley is "purely" just making an "arb call" on X and that Lina Khan is a "socialist."

Josh Brown, who wasn't on the show, sold NEE, according to Judge. Brown has touted NEE during the year. Joe made a distinction between NEE and NEP and said "this is the unwind of the renewable trade."






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